ALEX, CVX, EDIV, IRBO, IS, MAXN, MILN, NVS, OGE, ONLN, RDSB, SKYY, XLK,

Economy: 

Existing-Home Sales Ascend 7.0% in September The median sales price was up 13.3% Y-O-Y to $352,800. Persistently low mortgage rates can lead to a housing price bubble again IMO, even when mortgage lenders are exercising some prudence in assessing the borrowers ability to service the debt. Freddie Mac has the latest monthly average commitment rate for a 30 year mortgage rate at 2.9%. 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971 - Freddie Mac Interest is deductible and the annual CPI inflation rate is over 5%. 

Paul Tudor Jones says inflation could be worse than feared, biggest threat to markets and society

Biden suggested last night in a town hall meeting that he does not have the votes to increase corporate taxes. Referring to Sinema, Biden made the following comments: "She’s smart as the devil. But she is refusing to agree to increase taxes on corporations or the richest Americans. That’s where it sort of breaks down.” What happened during Biden's CNN town hall - The Washington Post The holdout for any increase is Senator Sinema who has been traveling the world in search of corporate campaign contributions.  I do not believe those contributions will help her reelection campaign in 2024, as it becomes increasing likely that she will be defeated in the primary or will lose to a Republican. Senator Manchin is willing to increase the top rate to 25%.

Whirlpool CEO says he’s ‘starting to get worried’ the U.S. labor shortage may become structural Whirlpool warned today of "elevated supply constraints". Whirlpool misses on Q3 sales as it faces 'elevated supply constraints' - MarketWatch I do not own shares but have started to monitor the price. 

Intel stock sinks as earnings prompt questions about falling margins - MarketWatch I have sold all of my INTC shares and am not interested at the current price.  

+++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

2 Top Healthcare Stocks That Could Be Bought Out in 2022 | The Motley Fool (mentions CRSP as one of the 2)

Jim Cramer: Strong bank earnings have changed the tone of the stock market

Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 2022 earnings beat estimates; SEC Filed Press Release (For its fiscal year 6/30/2022, PG "estimates "headwinds of $2.1 billion after-tax from higher commodity costs and an additional $200 million after-tax from higher freight costs. . . The approximately $2.3 billion after-tax combined impact of commodity and freight costs represents a $0.90 per share headwind to fiscal year 2022 EPS." Price hikes for PG's products are not keeping pace with input cost inflation.) I do not own PG but the input cost inflation is negatively impacting earnings for the consumer staple stocks that I own. My largest dollar position in a consumer staple stock is in General Mills (GIS)

Opinion: Don't dismiss what ultra-low dividend yields are telling us: We're in for puny returns in the stock market - MarketWatch The dividend yield for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), based on yesterday's closing price of $453.59, was only 1.25%, far below the anticipated annual average inflation rate predicted by the 10 year TIP breakeven inflation rate which is currently at 2.64%. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate-St. Louis Fed. Even with dividend increases over the next ten years, the real return for dividends paid by a S & P 500 ETF will be negative even at an annual average CPI rate of 2%. 

+++++

Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks: 

For most regional banks, the primary headwind for earnings remains net interest margin compression.  Profits from selling mortgage loans is trending down.  

Abbreviations Used: 

E.P.S. = Earnings Per Share

NIM = Net Interest Margin  

Efficiency Ratio: non-interest expenses/revenue  

ROA = Return on Assets

ROE = Return on Common Equity

ROTE = Return on Tangible Common Equity

NPL Ratio = Non-performing loans to total loans

NPA Ratio = Non-performing assets to total assets 

Coverage Ratio = credit reserves established/non-performing loans  

Charge off ratio = loan charge offs annualized to total average loans and leases

Bank-Specific Ratios - Overview of Industry Specific Ratios

AT & T SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.82; Adjusted E.P.S. = $.87 with the consensus at $.775 per Fidelity; revenues of $39.9B; free cash flow of $5.2B; total net adds in mobility at 4.9M; WarnerMedia revenues up 14.2% Y-O-Y to $8.4B; "company now expects full-year adjusted EPS to be at the high end of the low- to mid-single digit growth range and is on track with its free cash flow target of $26 billion range. The company also expects to reach the higher end of the end-of-year HBO Max/HBO global subscriber target of 70-73 million subscribers", footnotes omitted) As previously discussed, I do not like this stock for a variety of reasons, but own a few shares nonetheless. I added some, which I have not discussed here, when the price broke below $28. I now own 60+ shares in my Fidelity taxable account with an average cost per share of $27.75, up from 42+ shares when I last mentioned this position. I dislike the stock less at its current price.) 

Bank of America (BAC) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $.85 with the consensus at $.709 per Fidelity; net income of $7.7B; credit reserve release of $1.1B net with quarter's $624M provision for credit losses resulting in a benefit of $624M; excluding PPP loans, loan balances grew $21B)

BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP) Earns $8.3 Million in Third Quarter (E.P.S. = $.47 with the consensus at $.457 per Fidelity; declared quarterly dividend of $.16 per share, recently increased from $.14; NIM 3.46%, up from  2.98% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 52.17%; Coverage Ratio = 184.1%; $4K in net recoveries; NPL Ratio = .89%; ROA = 1.13%; ROE = 12.8%; tangible book value per share = $13.62)

Citizens Financial Group (CFG) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. $1.18; Non-GAAP $1.22 with consensus at $1.164 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.72%, down from 2.83% in the 2020 third quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio = 59.55%; charge off ratio = .14%; NPL ratio = .61%; coverage ratio = 268.3%; tangible book value per share = $34.34; average loan-to-deposit ratio = 80.8%; total capital ratio - 13.4%; CFG is in the process of acquiring Investors Bancorp which I also own) 

Citizens & Northern (CZNC) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $.47 with the consensus at $.46 per Fidelity; net income. =  $8.965M; NIM = 3.59%; NPA ratio = 1.05%;  Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $.28 per share; "net gains from sales of loans of $797,000 for the third quarter 2021 were down $1,255,000 from the total for the third quarter 2020, as the volume of residential mortgage loans sold in the third quarter 2021 was down from the third quarter 2020 level.")

CSX SEC Filing (E.P.S. = $.43, with the consensus at $.377 per Fidelity, and up from $.32 in the 2020 third quarter, net income of $968M; "Revenue for the third quarter increased 24 percent from the prior year to $3.29 billion, driven by growth across all business lines")

CVB Financial (CVBF) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = .$37 with the consensus at $.365 per Fidelity; net income = $49.8M; NIM = 2.89%, down from 3.34% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 42.27%; coverage ratio = 773.9%; NPA Ratio = .05%; Charge off ratio = zero; ROA = 1.26%; ROTE 14.6%; 6% loan growth Q-O-Q; tangible book value per share = $10.13; total risk based capital ratio = 15.7%; dividend payout ratio = 49.08%; cost of deposits = .03%) 

Ericsson (ERIC) reports third quarter results 2021 (E.P.S. = U.S.$.21 with the consensus at $.193 per share; revenues were reported at SEK56.3B, with the consensus at SEK58.15B; results continued to be adversely impacted by sales in China)

Fifth Third (FITB) Announces Third Quarter 2021 Results (E.P.S. = $.97 with consensus at $.906 per Fidelity; net income of $684M; NIM =  2.59%, compared to 2.58% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 57.8%; ROA = 1.36%; ROTE = 16.9%; Charge Off ratio - .08%; NPA Ratio = .58%; Coverage Ratio 409%; total capital ratio = 13.92%; "Fifth Third also increased its quarterly cash dividend on its common shares $0.03, or 11%, to $0.30 per share for the third quarter of 2021"; "During the third quarter of 2021, Fifth Third repurchased approximately $550 million of its outstanding stock, which reduced common shares by approximately 14.5 million at quarter end"; sold its HSA business during the quarter resulting in a $46M gain; tangible book value per share = $22.79)

First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $.63 with the consensus at $.522 per Fidelity; net income  =$60M; NIM 3.32%, down from 3.36% in the 2020 third quarter; Charge off ratio = .1%; provision recapture = $10M; NPL Ratio = .83%; NPA Ratio = .49%; coverage ratio = 225.73%; ROA = 1.49%; ROTE = 19.03%; tangible book value per share = $13.03; total capital ratio = 14.97%; repurchased 2.484+M shares during the quarter)

F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $.34 with the consensus at $.299 per Fidelity; net income of $109.5M; NIM = 2.99%, down from 3.34% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 55.43%; Charge off ratio = .03%; NPL ratio = .72%; ROA = 1.14%; ROTE = 16.77%; tangible book value per share = $8.42; dividend payout ratio = 35.43%)

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.94; non-GAAP at $.89 with the consensus at $.818 per Fidelity; adjusted net income = $1.3B; "Consolidated sales "totaled 1.033 billion pounds of copper, 402 thousand ounces of gold and 20 million pounds of molybdenum in third-quarter 2021. Consolidated sales for the year 2021 are expected to approximate 3.8 billion pounds of copper, 1.3 million ounces of gold and 85 million pounds of molybdenum, including 1.025 billion pounds of copper, 375 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in fourth-quarter 2021."; "average realized prices in third-quarter 2021 were $4.20 per pound for copper, $1,757 per ounce for gold and $18.61 per pound for molybdenum."; "average unit net cash costs in third-quarter 2021 were $1.24 per pound of copper and are expected to average $1.33 per pound of copper for the year 2021 and $1.26 per pound of copper in fourth-quarter 2021.")

J.P. Morgan (JPM) SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental {Net Income of $11.627B includes $2.1B in credit reserve release and a $566M "income tax benefit related to finalizing the Firm’s 2020 U.S. federal tax return ($0.19 increase in EPS"), referred to as "significant items"; GAAP E.P.S. at $3.74 and at $3.03 excluding significant items; consensus at $2.973 per Fidelity (I lack information on whether analysts were excluding one or both significant items in their E.P.S. estimates); on a company wide basis, average loans increased by 5%; assets under management rose 17% to $3T; ROTE = 22%; ROA = 1.24%; total capital ratio = 16.9%; dividend payout ratio = 27%; tangible book value per share = $69.87}

KeyCorp (KEY) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $.65 with the consensus at $.569 per Fidelity; Net income = $616M; NIM = 2.46%, down from 2.62% in the 2020 third quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 60.2%;  NPL Ratio = .56%; NPA Ratio = .61%; Charge off ratio = .11%; ROA = 1.41%; ROTE = 18.44%; tangible book value per share = $13.8; loan to deposit ratio 66.5%)

M & T Bank Corporation (MTB)(E.P.S. = $3.69, up from $2.75 in the 2020 third quarter; non-GAAP at $3.76 with the consensus at $3.5 per Fidelity; net income  =$495.46M, with available to common shareholders at $475.961M; NIM = 2.74%, down from 2.95% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 57.7%; Charge off ratio = .17%; NPL ratio still high at 2.4%; ROTE = 17.54%; ROA - 1.26%;  tangible equity per share at $86.88) Initially, the Stock Jocks barely reacted to this report and then decided it was good during the trading day on 10/20 with the stock closing up $8.77 or 5.78%. MTB $160.41 +$8.77 +5.78% MTB is in the process of acquiring People's Financial (PBCT), which I own, in a stock exchange, so PBCT's stock rose in tandem. PBCT $18.81 +$1.04 +5.85% After the merger announcement, I bought a few MTB shares and sold most of my PBCT position, keeping 62+ shares in my Schwab taxable account with an AC per share of $11.7. 

Mercantile Bank Corp. (MBWM) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $15.1M; E.P.S. at $.95, up from $.66 in the 2020 third quarter; consensus at $.848 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.71%, down from 2.86% in the 2020 3rd quarter; efficiency ratio = 56.13%; NPL Ratio = .08%; NPA Ratio = .06%; Charge off Ratio = .05%; ROA = 1.23%; ROE = 13.1%; tangible book value per share = $25.53; total capital ratio = 12.4%)  

Morgan Stanley (MS) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $1.98 with the consensus at $1.69; net revenues of $14.753B, up from $11.721B in the 2020 third quarter; ROTE  = 19.6%)

Old National Bancorp (ONB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Net income = $71.7M; E.P.S. = $.43 with the consensus at $.367 per Fidelity; provision for credit losses was a recapture of $4.6M from previous credit reserves; NIM 2.92%, Unadjusted efficiency ratio = 56.86%; NPL Ratio = .94%; ROA = 1.2%; ROTE = 15.13%; "cost of total deposits remained unchanged at 0.06% in the third quarter of 2021"; tangible book value per share = $11.83; tangible common equity to tangible assets = 8.455%; banking centers = 163)

Orrstown Financial Services (ORRF) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $7.2M; E.P.S. at $.65, up from .$45 in the 2020 third quarter; consensus at $.679 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.03%, down from 3.24% in the 2020 3rd quarter; efficiency ratio = 67.3%; net recoveried of $219K; NPL ratio = .47%; NPA Ratio = .32%; Coverage ratio = 219%; tangible book value per share = $21.98)

Truist Financial (TFC) SEC Filed Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.42 with the consensus at $1.206 per share per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. = $1.2; adjusted net income of $1.9B excludes after tax merger and restructuring of $132M; adjusted ROA and ROTE = 1.51% and 22.6% respectively; NIM = 2.81%, down from 3.1% in the 2020 third quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio = 57.9%; NPA ratio = .23%; Charge off ratio = .19%; "provision for credit losses was a benefit of $324 million for third quarter 2021, primarily reflecting an improving economic outlook")

US Bancorp (USB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $1.3 with the consensus at $1.159 per Fidelity; net income = $2.028B; ROA = 1.45%; ROTE = 20.2%; NIM 2.53%, down from 2.67% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 58.4%)  

Verizon (VZ) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $1.55; non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.41 with the consensus at $1.362 per Fidelity; adjusted E.P.S. excludes a $704M gain from selling Verizon Media and adds back $247M in severance, pension and benefits charges; "Total wireless service revenue of $17.1 billion, a 3.9 percent increase year over year, driven by higher access revenue, volume growth and products."; "699,000 retail postpaid net additions, including 429,000 phone net additions, resulting in 122.0 million total retail connections. Phone net additions increased 51.6 percent year over year."; "The company now expects adjusted EPS* of $5.35 to $5.40, an update from prior guidance of $5.25 to $5.35."

For many of the regional bank stocks bought last year, my average cost per share is below tangible book value per share. 

++++

Donald had this to say about Colin Powell's death: "Wonderful to see Colin Powell, who made big mistakes on Iraq and famously, so-called weapons of mass destruction, be treated in death so beautifully by the Fake News Media. Hope that happens to me someday. He was a classic RINO, if even that, always being the first to attack other Republicans. He made plenty of mistakes, but anyway, may he rest in peace!" Donald Trump (yet again) proves there's no bottom This is of course the language of an obvious psychopath who still has near total control over his party. 7 Characteristics of the Modern Psychopath | Psychology Today

Trump sues to block White House records from Jan. 6 riot probe committee

Trump faces a pile of civil lawsuits as depositions begin

Trump golf course under investigation by Westchester DA - ABC News

Former Trump Lawyer Appointed by Governor Greg Abbott (R) to Oversee Election Review in Texas - The New York Times

Senate Republicans block latest election reform legislation; Senate Republicans once again block voting rights reform bill - ABC News

Democrat Collects GOP Reward For Busting Voter Fraud... By A Republican 

++++

1. Small Ball-Risk Mitigation: 

A. Bought 5 ALEX at $22.77: 

Quote:  Alexander & Baldwin Inc.  (ALEX)- A REIT 

Website: Home - Alexander & Baldwin

Closing Price 10/21/21: ALEX $24.60 -$0.01 -0.04% 

ALEX "is the only publicly-traded real estate investment trust to focus exclusively on Hawaii's commercial real estate and is the state's largest owner of grocery-anchored, neighborhood shopping centers. A&B owns, operates and manages approximately 3.9 million square feet of commercial space in Hawai‘i, including 22 retail centers, 10 industrial assets and 4 office properties, as well as 149 acres of ground leases. A&B is expanding and strengthening its Hawai‘i CRE portfolio and achieving its strategic focus on commercial real estate by monetizing its remaining non-core assets ." The company has been around for over 150 years. The land was initially acquired for agricultural purposes

The company operates now in 3 segments: 

The company intends to sell all or some of its paving and materials businesses. This business segment had a $1.9M operating loss in the second quarter.  

When I last owned the stock, it owned Matson, a shipping company, that was spun out in 2011 and is now separately traded public company. Matson Inc. (MATX) While I understand the rationale for spinning off the shipping company, ALEX would now be a more attractive investment with Matson than it is now. 

I view ALEX as a possible acquisition candidate given its market cap of around $1.75B and its Hawaii real estate holdings. 

2020 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 (debt listed at page 10)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share  

Yield at $22.77: 3.16% I do not view this dividend yield as attractive for a REIT, which is the primary reason for buying just 5 shares. 

Last Ex Dividend:  9/16/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/2021): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Nareit-defined Funds From Operations ("FFO") and FFO per-diluted share were $22.3 million and $0.31 per share, respectively, compared to $5.9 million and $0.08 per share in the same quarter of 2020."

"Core FFO and Core FFO per-diluted share were $18.5 million and $0.25 per share, respectively, compared to $13.1 million and $0.18 per share in the same quarter of 2020."

Supplemental Information to Press Release List of properties starts at page 25

2021 Guidance: 

B. Added to CVX - Bought 1 at $96.5-Schwab Taxable: 

Quote: Chevron Corp.  (CVX)

Closing Price 10/21/21: CVX $111.74 -$1.42 -1.25% 

CVXAnalyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CVX SEC Filings

CVX 2020 Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Added 1 CVX at $98.12-Schwab Taxable (8/12/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add here. 

Average Cost per share this account: $99.15 (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.34 per share ($5.36 annually)

Yield at AC = 5.41% rounded

Last Ex Dividend:  8/18/21

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (9/27/21): 3 stars with a fair value estimate of $115. 

Credit Suisse (9/30/21 ): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $127

Argus (8/4/21): Buy and reaffirmed PT of $127 based on strong 2nd quarter results; raised 2021 E.P.S. to  $6.61 from $5.29. Based on what has happened to energy prices since this report, CVX will blow past that $6.61 E.P.S. estimate. As of 10/15/21, the consensus estimate was for $7.12. 

S & P (8/2/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $109. 

I also own 2+ CVX in my Fidelity account with an AC of 99.72 per share.  

C. Eliminated SKYY in Fidelity Account-Sold 4 at $109.89: 

Quote: SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY)

Expense Ratio = .6%

Number of Holdings = 66 

First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars) The 3 year annual average total return was 30.16% through 10/14/21. 

Profit Snapshot: $157.53 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.N. Bought 1 SKYY at $71.88; 1 at $71.31, 1 at $70.83, 1 at $68 (6/20/21 Post) 

Holdings Greater Than 2% Weighting as of 10/14/21: 

I have small ball positions in 4 of those stocks. CRM only has a 1.86% weighing which makes little sense to me. 

Fidelity has just started a Cloud Computing ETF that has a .39% expense ratio. FCLD That ETF tracks the Fidelity Cloud Computing Index PR - Index Constituents.

D. Eliminated XLK-Sold 1 at $157.06: 

Quote: XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Overview 

The fund owns technology stocks that are part of the S & P 500. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has a broader exposure to this sector, owning 342 stocks and has a .10% expense ratio.  

Sponsor's Website: XLK: The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund

Expense Ratio = .12% 

Number of Stocks = 75

Profit Snapshot: $59.51

I can find only 1 prior discussion: Item # 3: Bought 100 XLK at 21.89 (2/18/2010 Post) 

Top Holdings as of 10/14: 

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable amount

Last 4 Dividends = $1.10 rounded

Yield at $157.06 = .70%

I have positions in 7 of the stocks owned by this fund. 

E. Pared MAXN in Fidelity Account-Sold 7 of 15 at $18.6 and Pared MAXN in Vanguard Account-Sold 3 at $19.4: 

Quote: Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd.

Closing Price 10/21/21: MAXN $19.18  +$0.28 +1.48% 

"Maxeon designs and manufactures Maxeon® and SunPower® brand solar panels, and has sales operations in more than 100 countries, operating under the SunPower brand in certain countries outside the United States. The Company is a leader in solar innovation with access to over 1,000 patents and two best-in-class solar panel product lines. Maxeon products span the global rooftop and solar power plant markets through a network of more than 1,200 trusted partners and distributors. A pioneer in sustainable solar manufacturing, Maxeon leverages a 35-year history in the solar industry and numerous awards for its technology." 

MAXN is currently planning to build a manufacturing facility in the U.S. It has "submitted to the United States Department of Energy (“DOE”) Loan Programs Office an application to support the deployment of a 3 GW Performance line solar cell and module factory. Pending successful negotiation of a DOE loan guarantee and the passage of enabling legislation including the Solar Energy Manufacturing for America Act and the American Jobs in Energy Manufacturing Act of 2021, we intend to move forward with this project with the goal of starting solar panel production in the U.S. as early as 2023.”

Website: Home | Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.

SEC Filings (foreign issuer)

2020 Annual Report (products described at page 46)

Maxeon Investor Presentation June 2021

MAXN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (Average estimates: 2021 E.P.S. = -$5.39; 2022 = -2.76; 2023 = -$.26 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

I may not live long enough for MAXN to earn a profit. The stock may end up being a rewarding long term investment. Currently, the company is being adversely impacted by rising component costs.

Profit Snapshots: 

Fidelity = +$6.17 (9/16/21 sale only)

Vanguard = +$3.9 (9/23/21 sale only): 

Fidelity Account Average Cost per share after pare: $15.52

Snapshot Intraday on 9/16/21 after pare

Vanguard Account AC per share after pare = $17.23 (11 shares)

Closing Price as of 9/23

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Bought 5 MAXN at $19.2; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.3; 5 at $15.73-Scwhab Taxable Account (5/8/21 Post)

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C. Pared MAXN in 3 Taxable Accounts by Selling Highest Cost Lots-2 at $20.1; 5 at $20.38; 10 at $20.6 (9/9/21 Post) 

Last Loss Report (Q/E 6/30/21):  SEC Filed Press Release I decided to pare the position again after reviewing this loss report:  

Maxeon Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares (4/16/21) The offering was priced at $18 per share. 

Current MAXN Position (Vanguard/Fidelity accounts): 19 shares (AC at $16.51)

F. Eliminated MAXN in Schwab Taxable-Sold 15 at $18.75: 

Profit Snapshot: $26.09 

See Item # 1.D. above. 

MAXN Realized Gains to date: $46.86. Not exactly burning rubber on this one, but I have only started to trade it. 

G. Eliminated MILN in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 2 at $44.52: 

Quote: MILN | Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: Millennials Thematic ETF

Expense Ratio = .5%

Global X Millennials Consumer ETF (MILN)-Morningstar (3 stars)

Profit Snapshot: $31.34

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.C. Bought 5 MILN at $29.7 (8/29/20 Post); Item # 1.L. Bought 2 MILN at $28.09 (7/11/20 Post)

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.E. Sold 5 MILN at $45.12 (10/8/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.77) 

Dividends: Immaterial. Over the past 52 weeks, the fund has paid out $.06 per share. 

Top 10 Holdings:  

H. Eliminated MILN in Fidelity Taxable - Sold 2 at $44.41: 

Profit Snapshot: $32.63

See Item # 1.F. Above

MILN Realized Gains to Date: $143.74 (9 shares)

I. Eliminated IRBO in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 2 at $33.5: 

Quote: IRBO | iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$32.87 

Sponsor's Website: iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF | IRBO

Expense Ratio = .47%

Number of Holdings: 104 

Last Buy Discussions: Item #3.A. Bought 5 IRBO in Schwab Taxable Account at $28.7 (7/18/20 Post) 

Dividends: Semi-annually at a variable rate.

Last 2 Dividend Payments:  $.26 per share

Yield at $33.5 = .77%

Some Top Holdings as of 10/18: 

J. Eliminated BOTZ in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 5 at $39.02: 

Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Expense Ratio = .68%

Number of Holdings = 36 

Profit Snapshot: $74.52

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 5 BOTZ at $24.12(8/1/2020 Post) 

Dividends: Semi-annually and effectively meaningless at 5.9 cents total. 

K. Restarted OGE -Bought 5 at $33.73:

Quote: OGE Energy Corp

Closing Price 10/21: OGE $33.80 -$0.23 -0.68% 

OGE is a utility holding company whose main business is conducted through OG&E that generates, transmits and sell electric energy in Oklahoma and Arkansas. OG&E has about 865,000 customers in Oklahoma and western Arkansas.   

OGE is in the process of selling its stake (25.5%) in Enable Midstream Partners to Energy Transfer LP (ET). OGE Energy Corp. sets path to becoming a pure-play electric utility with the proposed merger between Energy Transfer LP and Enable Midstream Partners LP OGE will receive .8595 ET units for each unit of Enable. 

{Energy Transfer LP Stock Quote (U.S.: NYSE)} 

OGE SEC Filings

Corporate Profile | OGE Energy Corp.

OGE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

2020 Annual Report Power generation assets are listed at pages 46-47. 

Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Eliminated OGE-Sold 15 at $34.62 (6/4/21 Post)(profit = $57.36)-Item # 1.I. Started OGE-Bought 5 at $32.15; 1 at $31.63; 4 at $31.31; 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.31 (1/30/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.41, last raised from $.4025 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment. 

OGE Energy Corp. increases annual dividend to $1.64 per share

Dividend History | OGE Energy Corp.

Yield at $33.73 =  4.86%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/9/21 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

E.P.S. = $.56, up from $.43

Net Income = $113M

OG&E contributed $85M or $.42 of the $.56 E.P.S.

Company reaffirmed "its 2021 OG&E earnings guidance, in the lower half of the range, between approximately $352 million and $373 million of net income, or $1.76 to $1.86 per average diluted share." 

L. Bought 2 NBTB at $33.5: 

Quote: NBT Bancorp Inc. 

Closing Price 10/21: NBTB $37.02 -$0.04 -0.11% 

NBTB "is a financial holding company headquartered in Norwich, NY, with total assets of $11.6 billion at June 30, 2021. The Company primarily operates through NBT Bank, N.A., a full-service community bank, and through two financial services companies. NBT Bank, N.A. has 140 banking locations in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine and Connecticut. EPIC Retirement Plan Services, based in Rochester, NY, is a full-service retirement plan administration and recordkeeping firm. NBT Insurance Agency, LLC, based in Norwich, NY, is a full-service insurance agency."

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

SEC Filings 

NBTB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 10/18/21, the consensus E.P.S. for 2021 was at $3.4; at $2.89 in 2022; and $2.55 in 2023) 

Deposit Market Share by county as of 12/31/2o:

 Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share 

Yield at $33.5 = 3.34%

Last Ex dividend: 8/31/21  

5 Year Financial Date: 2020 Annual Report at page 29 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Diluted E.P.S. = $.92, up from $.56 in the 2020 second quarter

Net Income = 40.3M

NIM = 3.00%, down from 3.38% in the 2020 second quarter 

NPL Ratio = .57%

NPA Ratio = .38% 

Charge Off Ratio  = .07%

ROTE = 17.93% 

ROA = 1.39% 

Loan to Deposit Ratio = .78%

"Excess liquidity resulted in a $386.7 million increase in the average balances of short-term interest bearing accounts with a yield of 0.09%."

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio = 15.78%

The 3rd quarter report will be released after the market closes on 10/26. I will discuss that report in a subsequent post. 

M. Added to NVS - Bought 1 at $83.57; 1 at $82.5: : 

Quote: Novartis AG ADR

Closing Price 10/21: NVS $84.67 +$0.20 +0.24% 

Investment Categories: Dividend Growth/Bond Substitute/Asset Priced in Swiss Francs

NVS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

20-F (2020 Annual Report, SEC form for a foreign company)

Investors | Novartis

News Archive | Novartis

Novartis AG (ADR) Key Metrics | Reuters

NVS | Novartis AG ADR Stock Overview (U.S.: NYSE) | Barron's

Novartis Pipeline | Novartis- Extensive

Last Buy Discussion: Item #  3 Added to NVS- Bought 1 at $85.5 (5/14/21 Post) 

Dividend: Annually. 

In Swiss Francs/2020 dividend paid in 2021

Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Dividends are paid in Swiss Francs and are subject to Switzerland's withholding tax.  

Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/4/21

Average cost per share = $85.01 (5 shares) 

Dividend Yield = 3.85%. I have to make an assumption about the CHF/USD exchange rate when making this calculation. The current CHF/USD rate is close to 1.09. Using the 3 CHF per share payment and that exchange rate, the USD dividend would be $3.27. The actual amount paid in 2021 was $3.1991 which indicates that the CHF has gained in value some against the CHF since the 2021 dividend was paid. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (10/11/21): 4 stars with a FV of U.S.$91

Argus (7/21/21): Hold, maintains adjusted E.P.S. estimate of $6.45 in 2022.  

S & P (7/22/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $96.  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Novartis delivered strong Q2 performance, driven by momentum of key growth brands. FY 2021 guidance unchanged. | Novartis

Third quarter results are scheduled for release on 10/26. 

Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold 108+ NVS at $83.66 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $968.85); Item # 1 Eliminated NVS-Sold 29 at $86.35 (10/24/18 Post)(profit snapshot $298.77); Item # 3.D Sold 10 NVS at $85.96 and 5 at $86.5-Used Commission Free Trades (10/10/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.98); Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 NVS at $41.86 (6/17/2009 Post)(profit snapshot +$230.94) Since those sell discussions, NVS spun out Alcon Inc. (ALC). 

NVS Trading Profits to Date = $1,732.8

N. Pared IS-Sold 10 of 20 at $12.2: 

Quote: ironSource Ltd.

SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $35.99 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Bought 10 IS at $8.55 (8/27/21 Post) I still own that lot. I discussed the last earnings report in that post and nothing further to add here. 

O. Eliminated EDIV-Sold 7 at $29.4: 

Quote: SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF

Sponsor's website: Emerging Markets Dividend ETF

Expense Ratio = .49% 

SPDR® S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF-Morningstar (currently rated 1 star)

Profit Snapshot: $36.97

Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Bought 1 EDIV at $24.26; 4 at $23.95; 2 at $23.5 (10/24/20 Post) 

Top 10 Holdings as of 10/15/21: 

Last 4 Quarterly Dividends: $1.02 rounded

Yield at $29.4 = 3.47%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/21

P. Pared RDSB in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $49.36: 

Quote: RDS.B | Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADR B Overview

Closing Price 10/21: RDS-B $49.14 -$0.49 -0.99% 

I recently discussed a pare in my Fidelity account and have nothing substantive to add here.  Item # 3.D.  (10/8/21 Post)(14 shares in this account with an AC of $25.76) 

I sold the highest cost lots that could be sold profitably. 

Profit Snapshot = $16.76

Current Average Cost per share this account = $42.84 (67+ shares)

My largest RDSB position is in this account. 

Of the 67+ shares, 29 are currently in unrealized loss territory. 

I will be able to sell all of those shares profitably at $57.65 but will not wait for that price to start selling these higher cost lots. 

I will sell profitably 7 of those shares at $51.81 or higher and the remainder when and if the price exceeds $57.65.    

When and if all of the 29 shares are sold profitably, that will reduce my average cost per share to $25.67 (38+ shares this account)

I also own 10+ shares in my Vanguard taxable account with an average cost per share of $27.11.  

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Added to RDSB-Bought 1 at $34.08; 1 at $28.9, 1 at $27.61; 1 at $24.88; 1 at $24.18- Schwab Taxable (5/23/20 Post) I still own those shares. 

Q. Bought 3+ ONLN at Various Prices-Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Snapshot as of close on 10/21/21

Quote: ONLN | ProShares Online Retail ETF Overview 

Closing Price 10/21/21: ONLN $69.98 +$0.42  +0.60% 

Average cost per share = $69.58 

Sponsor's Website: ProShares Online Retail ETF | ONLN | Overview 

Expense Ratio = .58%

Holdings as of 10/21 with 1%+ Weighting: 

The stocks owned by this ETF are overvalued IMO, some ridiculously so, but have been overvalued for an extended period which has not been an impediment for continued price appreciation until the most recent pullback. So I am skeptical about new purchases working out over the short or intermediate term. 

Morningstar has a 3 star rating on this ETF. P/E ratios for the top 10 holdings can be found at ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) Portfolio - ARCX | Morningstar (2 stocks are well into negative P/Es)

I want some exposure to this sector notwithstanding my valuation concerns. I elected to substitute ONLN for the Global X E-commerce ETF  (EBIZ). My reason is simple. EBIZ did not even have Amazon in the top 10 holdings. If I am going to own an online retail ETF, I want to have more exposure to the leading online retailer. 

ONLN is having a relatively bad year compared to the S & P 500 with the YTD return at -7.74% based on yesterday's closing price.  

1 year chart as of 10/21/21: 

The 52 week high is currently at 93.45 (2/16/21). The price decline from that high to my AC of $69.58 is 25.54, officially a bear market. I just view the current price as taking some air out of a bloated stock sector. Price performance over the past 52 weeks is only 4.74% compared to +32.23% for the S & P 500 ETF SPY

Purchase Restriction: Each small ball purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.