Economy:
PCE inflation August 2024: Prices rise 2.2%, less than expected
Sourced from Personal Income and Outlays, August 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
China's industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago
Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is 'not on any preset course' I previously mentioned that a 50 basis point cut in November was an unrealistic prediction. The Fed will at most cut .25%. Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board
What a lengthy U.S. port strike could mean for global supply chains
The September ISM manufacturing index was reported at 47.2%, unchanged from August. The new orders component rose to 46.1 from 44.6. The price component dived to 48.3 from 54.
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $12,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $15,000 in principal amount
Tennessee Municipal Bond: $5,000 in principal amount
Outflow Commons Stocks: -$1,082.98
(consisting of $1,636.74 in proceeds minus $553.76 in purchases)
Outflow Stock Funds (Mutual & CEF) = -$1,190.16
(consisting of $1,317.66 in proceeds minus $127.5 in purchases)
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$2,273.14
Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: +C$1,986
Exchange Traded Bond: +$230.09
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$38,178.82
2023 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$27,091.82
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day):
Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
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Trump and His Party:
Trump is the republican party and has proven beyond any doubt that lying all the time about almost everything works on tens of millions. If re-elected, Trump could make 50,000 or more false and misleading statements during his second term and still be viewed as honest by 70%-80% of republicans which is the current polling percentage range.
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
Trump backs out of "60 Minutes" interview after appearing confused at Wisconsin rally
I do not foresee the VP debate as impacting the Presidential election. J. D. Vance Reinvents Himself Again - The Atlantic
Vance would not answer a question whether Trump lost the 2020 election. Previously, Vance has stated that, if he was VP, he would not have accepted the certified vote totals in 4 states won by Biden. JD Vance says he's wouldn't have certified 2020 race until states submitted pro-Trump electors-ABC News
Vance also claimed that Trump saved Obamacare, a shameless lie. Takeaways from the Vance and Walz vice presidential debate; Vance claims Trump 'salvaged' Obamacare. Trump tried, and failed, to kill it; Fact-checking the VP debate between Vance and Walz; VP debate 2024: The only moment that mattered in Vance-Walz match up | Vox
The most insidious claim made by Vance IMO during the debate occurred when Vance asserted with a straight face that Trump "peacefully gave over power on January 20". Vance thinks that he is being clever by adding January 20 to the sentence, but his false claim still reads loud and clear that Trump "peacefully gave over power".
JD Vance said in 2022 he ‘would like abortion to be illegal nationally’ | CNN Politics During the debate, Vance claimed that he did not say what he said on tape, claiming he was only talking about setting "some minimum national standard" rather than an outright ban. Opinion | JD Vance has had many incarnations. You can’t trust any of them. - The Washington Post
Vance says immigrants hurt housing market, plans for mass deportations - The Washington Post
Shocking Secrets: Donald Trump's Troubling Past Exposed - YouTube
‘A complete lying lunatic’: Conway blasts Trump's Hurricane Helene fabrications - YouTube
Trump says Harris would turn every town into a ‘third-world hellhole’ - POLITICO (9/28/24) Just more rage demagoguery intended to create fear which is normal for Trump. What is also normal for Trump is that he stokes fear with false information and ridiculous predictions.
Trump also called Harris "mentally disabled". A joke made during SNL's Weekend Update was that Trump admitted losing the debate to a mentally disabled person, with the implication being Trump admitted to being more mentally disabled. Weekend Update: Trump Calls Kamala Harris “Mentally Disabled Person” - SNL - YouTube
Demagogue Don also claimed that Harris was born "mentally impaired".
“There can be nothing worse”: Trump demands Kamala Harris impeachment on Truth Social | Salon.com The information that Trump cited in support of his demand was false or misleading. Fact check: To attack Harris, Trump falsely describes new stats on immigrants and homicide | CNN Politics Based on Trump's past history of making false or misleading statements, which require a unit of measure in the tens of thousands, the only rational response to any Trump claim or statement is to just assume that it is false.
Trump Remark About 1890s Rebuked Online: 'Such Ignorant Thinking' - Newsweek There is not any doubt in my mind that Trump is both ignorant and unwilling to learn. In his prime, he had at best average intelligence. His reptilian brain does know how manipulate the willfully ignorant into believing demonstrably false statements made by him even when those statements are measured in the tens of thousands. He is talented in that respect but only because far too many Americans are easily manipulated with false information.
Trump Plans Massive Shake-Up of Justice Department-WSJ This Wall Street Journal article provides details on Trump's plan to fire DOJ career employees and to replace them with his sycophants who would be willing to pursue criminal charges against those that Trump does not like and there are legions of those people.
Earlier, Trump made it clear that he wanted lawyers, election officials, political donors and operatives charged criminally for some unspecified unsavory activity as defined and determined by him. Trump threatens donors, lawyers and election officials with prison for 'unscrupulous behavior' Trump threatens lawyers, donors with prison for "unscrupulous" election behavior.
A few days ago, Trump stated that Nancy Pelosi needs to be arrested and prosecuted for crimes since Trump believes she is responsible for January 6th. REACTION to Trump's Insane New Revenge Plot. New Low for Trump? | Bulwark Takes - YouTube; Trump defends Jan. 6 rioters, blames Nancy Pelosi for chaos; Nancy Pelosi called Trump a "domestic enemy" in new footage from Jan. 6 aftermath - CBS News
Trump also wants Nancy Pelosi criminally prosecuted for insider trading since her husband sold Visa stock three months before the Justice Department filed an antitrust suit against VISA. Trump calls for Nancy Pelosi to be ‘prosecuted’ over Visa stock trade (9/27/24). Trump falsely claims that the Paul Pelosi sold the stock 1 day before the lawsuit was filed by the DOJ. Nancy Pelosi denied that she had any knowledge of the lawsuit before it was filed, and there are no facts supporting Trump's claim that she knew and no rational reason to believe the DOJ would have informed anyone in Congress about the lawsuit before filing it.
Trump: Google should be criminally prosecuted over search results; Trump Threatens to Prosecute Google for Showing ‘Bad Stories’ About Him - The New York Times If Trump wins, he will cause a criminal prosecution of Google for what Trump claims is election interference. The source relied on by Trump, the Media Research Center, is viewed as far right with an agenda. Its CEO, L. Brent Bozell III, once said President Obama looked like a "skinny ghetto crackhead". Media Research Center-Wikipedia I was not able to duplicate the claims of bias with the search terms used my MRC.
Ken Burns: To protect the liberties we care about, there's an obvious choice to make - YouTube
The Republican Freak Show - The Atlantic "The GOP is a moral freak show, and freak shows attract freaks. Which is why Mark Robinson fits in so well in today’s Republican Party."
My video: Ken Burns Interviews and Trump's Threats Against Critics and Political Opponents - YouTube
JD Vance messages in 2020 show him criticizing Trump's record as president - The Washington Post (9/27/24) Vance made this comment in February 2020: "Trump has just so thoroughly failed to deliver on his economic populism (excepting a disjointed China policy)"
JD Vance appears at event hosted by Lance Wallnau, Christian nationalist - The Washington Post Wallnau has called Harris a "demon" and a "Jezebel". He claimed that Harris had "the spirit of Jezebel in a way that will be even more ominous than Hillary [Clinton] because she’ll bring a racial component, and she’s younger."
Trump sexual assault accuser reacts to him calling himself a woman's 'protector' at rally - YouTube The sexual assault accuser is Natasha Stoynoff, a former reporter for People's Magazine.
Trump says Jews will bear a lot of blame if he loses in November. Trump says Jewish voters will bear 'a lot' of blame if he loses during 'fighting antisemitism' event
You Should Read Trump’s Wild Truth Social Posts - The Atlantic Trump's mental illnesses are on display with his social media posts. This article contains a link to a website that has all of them, including ones that Trump has deleted. The website is Trump's Truth. It is important to have all of the posts in one place so that voters, wishing to be informed, can read them. Those posts will not fare well when historians discuss them many decades from now. He will come off as completely unhinged.
They Cost How Much? Trump's Latest Embarrassing Grift Suckers MAGA Fanatics | Bulwark Takes - YouTube Some of Trump's latest grifts include selling overpriced watches and silver coins with his image. He will milk his cult members to their last dime if they let him. ‘Don’t wait’: Trump promotes limited-supply $100,000 watches - The Washington Post
Opinion | Donald Trump According to Those Who Know Him - The New York Times Contains a very long list of unfavorable comments about Don the Con.
Vance changed his tune on climate change. Oil cash flowed. - POLITICO
A friendly Fox reporter asked Vance what made him smile. Vance responded "I smile at a lot of things, including bogus questions from the media, man." JD Vance gives icy response to reporter question | FOX 2 Detroit
JD Vance was interviewed in a grocery store, with egg cartons in the background. Notwithstanding the prices shown for the eggs, Vance falsely claimed that the egg prices were much higher that what was clearly visible and that representation was made after he looked at the prices. 'A dozen eggs will cost you around $4...': JD Vance 'caught lying' on camera while targeting Harris-YouTube There is no Kamala Harris inflationary policy that influences the prices of eggs. The price rise is primarily due to widespread outbreaks of bird flu. Everything you need to know about the bird flu outbreak in Colorado; H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation | Bird Flu | CDC; Here we go again. Egg prices are spiking. Here’s why | CNN Business Vance is lying about more than just the price.
Donald Trump is demanding to see Kamala's burger certificate - YouTube; Desi Lydic Ridicules Trump for Demanding Harris’s ‘Burger Certificate’ - The New York Times`
Trump Allies Bombard the Courts, Setting Stage for Post-Election Fight - The New York Times As with most of the claims made in Trump's effort to cancel certified vote totals in the 2020 election, many of which canceling all mail-in votes or entire election results and then allowing the republican controlled legislatures decide who won, the current effort focuses on making it difficult for citizens to vote and canceling citizen votes primarily through those voting by mail who are primarily voting for democrats. Republicans claim that their efforts, which would if successful disenfranchise lawful voters, are pro-democracy.
'Fools on the Hill' looks at historic ineffectiveness of the current GOP-led House - YouTube
Trump supporters like Deadheads: George Will | On Balance - YouTube
'Out of control’ Trump must be stopped says retired US general - YouTube
Donald Trump Chased Over Unpaid Debts for His Rallies - Newsweek
PolitiFact | Trump’s false claim that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp couldn’t reach Joe Biden after Hurricane Helene; WATCH: Trump makes false claims about the federal response to Hurricane Helene | PBS News; Trump lies instantly debunked by FEMA spokesperson - YouTube Trump is incapable of being truthful. He just makes stuff up and hurls a non-stop barrage of false accusations.
About 7 out of 10 evangelical Protestants have a favorable opinion of Trump, Christian Voters 'Don't Care' About Donald Trump's Religious Beliefs: Poll - Newsweek
The Christian Radicals Are Coming - The Atlantic
Trump mixes up words, swerves among subjects in off-topic speech-MSN, republished from
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Putin and His Nation:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Russia Engulfed by Fires as Drone Barrage Targets Air Bases, Military Towns - Newsweek
Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza speaking out after prisoner swap | 60 Minutes - YouTube
Putin has caused Russia to enter into a long term war of attrition that will do permanent damage to Russia's economy and result in over 1 million dying in Ukraine.
Putin believed that the democratically elected government would fall in 3 days and Russia could absorb Ukraine into the Russian Federation before the western democracies could do anything to prevent that result.
To save his own life and his ill-gotten wealth, Putin has no choice but to achieve what Russians would recognize as a victory, which means that he will never be willing to accept terms that would be acceptable to Ukraine. The Only Way the Ukraine War Can End - The Atlantic In this article, Anne Applebaum notes that in "the long battle for Vulhedar, a now-empty town in eastern Ukraine with a prewar population of 14,000, the Russians have sacrificed about 1,000 tanks armored vehicles, and pieces of artillery". That does not matter to Putin and his fellow Kleptocrats.
Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Interactive Map: Ukraine's Incursion into Kursk Oblast
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1. Eliminated FBIOX - Sold 62+ at $21.02:
Quote: Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio Overview
Proceeds: $1,317.66
Profit Snapshot: $211.26
Dividend History: The fund has not generated much income since it last paid a capital gains distribution in 2021. This is a major negative for me.
The fund does have unrealized capital gains. As of 4/30/24, the date of the last semiannual shareholder report, the fund's investments had a cost of $4.959+B with a value then at $7.988+B.
Sponsor's website: FBIOX
Expense Ratio: .66%
Top 10 Holdings as of 7/31/24:
FBIOX – Performance – Fidelity Select Biotechnology | Morningstar This fund current has a 3 star rating. Annual performance numbers have been very erratic. FBIOX was up 18.3% YTD through 9/26/24.
 |
| In Thousands |
A. Started UDR - Bought 5 at $45.95; 1 at $45.37; 1 at $45.14:
Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR)
Cost: $320.26
"As of June 30, 2024, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,126 apartment homes."
UDR is a component of the S&P 500.
Average cost per share: $45.75 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.425 per share ($1.7 annually), last raised from $.42 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment.
Dividend History: Decent for a REIT IMO
The quarterly dividend was at $.26 in 2014.
Ten year dividend growth is slower or non-existent for many REITs. UDR has not cut its dividend which has happened for a number of REITs, primarily in the Office and Hotel sectors.
Another Apartment REIT, which I own, has almost doubled its dividend in 10 years. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Common Stock (MAA) Dividend History ($1.47 quarterly from $.73).
Realty Income, viewed by many as a good REIT dividend stock, has increased its monthly dividend to $.2635 for the October 2024 payment from $.1831 in October 2014. Realty Income Corporation Common Stock (O) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $45.75 AC per share: 3.716%
Next Ex Dividend: 10/10/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental Financial Data
Revenues: $415.32M
FFO per share: $.60
AFFO per share: $.55
Occupancy: 96.8%
Reconciliation of GAAP Net Income to AFFO:
The largest add back to net income is the depreciation expense of $170.488M. The largest deduction in the FFO to AFFO calculation is the $26.29M in routine maintenance expenditures.
2024 Outlook: AFFO per share $2.16 to $2.24
Analyst Report (available to Schwab customers):
S&P ( 9/4/24): 3 stars with a $48 price target, raised $7 in this report based on a forward Price/FFO of 18.8 time the analysts 2025 FFO estimate. The analyst is concerned about UDR's exposure to the Sun Belt markets that is facing more new supply that is anticipated to restrain rent growth.
I do not have have access to any other analyst report.
I am aware that JP Morgan raised it price target to $50 from $43 on 9/16/24 and kept its overweight rating. On the same day, Scotiabank raised its PT to $49 from $43 and maintained its sector perform rating. On 9/12/24, UBS kept its buy rating and raised its PT to $52 from $48. On 9/11/24, BNP Paribas initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a $49 PT. On 9/10/24, Deutsche bank adjusted it PT to $44 from $40. I do not have access to those reports.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus for $300M in 5.125% SU notes maturing in 2034
Owned UDR Bonds: I discuss buying UDR SU notes in Item 5.G., H., and I. below. I lattered 1 bond lots maturing in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
B. Started NBXG - Bought 10 at $12.75:
Cost $127.5
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
SEC Filing Portfolio Holdings as of 7/31/24
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/24
NBXG Page at Morningstar (currently rated 2 stars) The fund started at an inopportune time for the kind of stocks that it owns. The total return in 2022 was -41.36%, followed by +34.89% and +24.39% YTD in 2024 through 9/25/24. So that explains the low rating.
Dividend: Monthly at $10 per share
ROC Supported
The dividend income will be insufficient to cover the fund's expenses. The only way to support the dividend with income is through capital gains. Most of the stocks owned by the fund pay no or miniscule dividends.
Yield at $12.75: 9.41%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24
NBXG Portfolio | Morningstar This webpage is accessible to non-subscribers and has the top 25 holdings.
Data Date of 9/26/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $14.66
Closing Market Price: $12.75
Discount: -13.03%
Sourced: NBXG - CEF Connect
C. Started ROIV - Bought 10 at $11.85; 10 at $11.5:
Quote: Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV)
Cost: $233.5
Investment Strategy: Lottery Ticket Basket (This company has a superb balance sheet but has just entered an agreement to sell its only commercially FDA approved product VTAMA. The LT classification is based on the uncertainty whether the pipeline drugs or other potential revenue sources will justify a sustained move higher in price. I am also more likely to classify a stock as an LT when no dividend is paid and none is expected in the future, defined generally as my likely remaining life span).
"Roivant is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that aims to improve the lives of patients by accelerating the development and commercialization of medicines that matter. Today, Roivant’s pipeline is concentrated in inflammation and immunology and includes VTAMA, a novel topical approved for the treatment of psoriasis and in development for the treatment of atopic dermatitis; IMVT-1402 and batoclimab, fully human monoclonal antibodies targeting the neonatal Fc receptor (“FcRn”) in development across several IgG-mediated autoimmune indications; and brepocitinib, a potent small molecule inhibitor of TYK2 and JAK1 for the treatment of dermatomyositis and non-infectious uveitis, in addition to several other therapies in various stages of clinical development. We advance our pipeline by creating nimble subsidiaries or “Vants” to develop and commercialize our medicines and technologies. Beyond therapeutics, Roivant also incubates discovery-stage companies and health technology startups complementary to its biopharmaceutical business."
The company is based in Switzerland, incorporated in Bermuda, and reports in USDs.
Investor Relations | Roivant Sciences Ltd.
ROIV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
ROIV SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ending 3/31/24
Dividend: None and none expected.
Roivant owns interests in several companies that are pursuing drug trials in several treatment categories. Our Companies | Roivant
Ownership Stakes in Companies:
 |
| Page 9, Annual Report |
I discovered this stock after reading a press release several months ago that Roivant had sold its 75% owned Telavant subsidiary to Roche for approximately $7.1 billion in cash. Roche Completes Acquisition of Telavant from Roivant, Including Rights to Novel TL1A Directed Antibody (RVT-3101) for the Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (12/14/23) Another $110M payment was received in August 2024.
More recently, Roivant announced that it sold another subsidiary Dermavant to Organon for an upfront cash payment of $175M, another $75M when the FDA approves the Dermavant VTAMA cream for atopic dermatitis in adults and children over 2 years, with a decision expected in the 4th quarter, and up to $950M for achieving certain commerical milestones. The FDA approved this cream in 2022 for the topical treatment of mild, moderate and severe plaque psoriasis in adults. Organon to Acquire Dermavant (9/18/24)
Of the compounds that are in trials, Immunovant's Batoclimab is currently in two Phase 3 trials and Priovant's Brepocitnib is in multiple trials including 1 Phase 3 trial for treating Dermatomyositis. ROIV's ownership stake in Immunovant is 49% and 68% in Priovant, both based on a fully diluted basis.
Recent Developments:
As of 6/30/24, cash position was reported at $5.7B following a $648M share repurchase of Sumitomo Pharma's entire stake but not including a $110M cash payment made by Roche in August 2024. Product revenues was entirely from the VTAMA cream that is in the process of being sold to Organon. When that sale is complete, there will not be any product revenue until ROIV secures marketing approval for another drug currently in its pipeline, assuming it does not sell it.
Diluted Shares outstanding: 781,627,601 (far too many with no marketable compounds after selling the VTAMA product.
ROIV reported a profit but that was to due to non-operating gains.
Roivant Provides Update on Graves’ Disease Development Program (9/9/24) (Phase 2a results using Batoclimab)
Roivant Announces Positive NEPTUNE Study Results for Brepocitinib in NIU, as well as Board Authorization for up to $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Program, Including Repurchase of Entire Sumitomo Pharma Stake for $648 Million(4/2/24)(Phase 2 trial results for Brepocitnib in non-infectious uveitus)
Roivant Unveils New Pipeline Program Mosliciguat, A Potential First-In-Class and Best-In-Category Inhaled Once-Daily Soluble Guanylate Cyclase (sGC) Activator (9/10/24)(results of Phase 1b trial and announcing the immediate start of Phase 2)
Another subsidiary, Genevant, is pursuing a patent infringement claim against Moderna. Arbutus, Genevant gain an edge in COVID patent scrap with Moderna | Fierce Pharma Hard to say how much that will be worth if successful at trial or in a settlement.
Home - Genevant Sciences Corporation; Press Releases Genevant Sciences Corporation This company is involved in several gene editing efforts. This may end up being the wild card.
Another subsidiary, Kinevant, is scheduled to report Phase 2 trial data in the 4th quarter for its compound namilumab that treats sarcoidosis. Kinevant Sciences Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 2 Study of Namilumab for the Treatment of Pulmonary Sarcoidosis (RESOLVE-Lung) | Kinevant
Net Income for the F/Y ending 3/31/24 was high given the $5.348+B profit earned from selling Telavant.
 |
| Page 123, Annual Report |
Prior cash receipts from selling shares in owned companies:
Recent Stock Offerings: Prospectus - Offering price at $10.21 (September 2023); Prospectus - Offering Price at $7.5 (March 2023)
The success so far has not been in marketing compounds approved by the FDA or foreign regulators but in developing and testing compounds that are later sold to other companies. So there is no proven expertise in marketing and manufacturing approved drugs.
There is no way for me to predict whether the FDA will approve compounds in trials and how successful they may end of being when and if approved for marketing.
Possibly, past success can be duplicated with drugs that are currently in trials and those yet to be developed, but that is not certain.
4. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared PDM - Sold 5 at $10.13:
Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A (PDM) - An Office REIT
Proceeds: $50.68
Website: Home - Piedmont Office Realty Trust
Management: Internal
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to PDM - Bought 3 at $6.37; 3 at $6.14 (4/29/23 Post); Item # 1.F. Added to PDM - Bought 5 at $7.03; 5 at $6.52 (3/25/23 Post)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Loss Snapshot: -$22.53
New Average cost per share: $9.1 (142+ Shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/25/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share ($.50 annually), slashed from $.21 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Office REITs have slashed their dividends or eliminated them altogether in response to problems created by the pandemic.
I am aware of only one, Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW), that raised its dividend 2021 and then maintain that dividend to the present. HIW Dividend History | Nasdaq I currently own 53+ HIW shares with an average cost per share at $23.81, last discussed at Item # 1.E. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $18.13; 1 at $17.93; 3 at $17.74 (12/2/23 Post)
Yield at New AC per share: 5.49%
Given the dividend slash, I do not view this dividend as supporting new purchases. I am more in the mode of reducing my position, at least until I note improving operating metrics that is likely to result in a dividend increase or has resulted in an increase.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/19/24 (owned all as of)
Last Bond Offerings:
12/2023: Prospectus for $200M of 9.25% SU notes maturing in 2028
6/2024: Prospectus for $400M 6.875% SU notes maturing in 2029.
Interest costs have been rising which has pressured funds from operations to the downside. The level of debt has also meaningfully increased year-over-year, see page 6, 10-Q
Interest Expense:
Q/E 6/30/24: $29.569M
Q/E 6/30/23: $21.602M
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in PDM - Sold 31 at $8.67 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.52); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and Supplemental
B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in CLPR (Schwab Account) - Sold 40 at $5.83:
Quote: Clipper Realty, Inc.
Proceeds: $233.18
10-Q List of properties at page 7.
Website: Clipper Realty
Debt as of 6/30/24: $1.244+B
Market Cap at $5.83: Approximately $93.71M, using the share count as of 6/30/24. Investors are saying that there is not that much equity left when the debt is subtracted from the total fair market property value.
Clipper is primarily a NYC apartment REIT.
It does own 2 old office buildings located in Brooklyn: 141 Livingston Street, a
The 250 Livingston Street property is leased to NYC who recently announced its intention to vacate the property in August 2025. Clipper only says it is actively seeking solutions and opportunities. There is a $125M 3.63% mortgage on the property that matures in 2029, see page 15 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24.
The 141 Livingston Street property has a $100M 3.21% mortgage maturing in 2031. For this property, CLPR stated in its last earnings press release that it is in active negotiation for a lease renewal. This property appears to be leased to the NYC Civil Court.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$36.24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Added to CLPR - Bought 10 at $4.45 (11/25/23 Post) Item # 1.A. Added to CLPR - Bought 10 at $4.77; 10 at $4.6; 10 at $4.53-Fidelity Account (11/4/23 Post)(discussed the 2023 third quarter report, SEC Filed Press Release)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.095 per share ($.38 annually)
Clipper Realty Inc. (CLPR) Stock Dividend History & Date
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
AFFO per share $.17, up from $.13
The company noted that it has "begun preliminary marketing activities for some of our properties, including our 10W 65th Street property, which, while potentially resulting in some loss compared to book value, would allow us to achieve better overall returns going forward."
The 10W 65th street property is located in Manhattan and is a 6 story apartment building with "approximately
"For the second quarter of 2024, revenues increased by $2.9 million, or 8.3%, to $37.3 million as compared to revenue of $34.5 million during the second quarter of 2023. Residential revenue increased by $2.7 million, or 11.8%, driven by higher rental rates at all our residential properties and higher occupancy. Commercial income increased by $0.1 million, or 0.9%, in the second quarter of 2024 due to higher escalation income at our office properties."
"For the second quarter of 2024, AFFO was $7.1 million, or $0.17 per share, compared to $5.5 million, or $0.13 per share, for the second quarter of 2023."
Remaining Taxable Account Position - Fidelity:
C. Eliminated TAC - Sold 50 at $10.33:
Quote: Transalta Corp. (TAC)
Proceeds: $516.48
Website: TransAlta - A Clean Energy Solutions Company
Transalta owns and operates hydro, wind, solar and natural gas fired generation. I also owns a coal fired plant, known as Centralia, that is currently scheduled to be retired by year end 2025. That plant is classified as "Energy Transition" in the following snapshot:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 10 TAC at $6.1 (4/19/24 Post); Item # 1.F. Added 5 TAC at $6.51; 5 at $6.32 (3/22/24 Post)(discussed the 2023 4th quarter report, SEC filed Press Release)
I am keeping the 100 shares purchased on the Toronto exchange using my CAD stash in my IB account. Item # 1. Bought 100 TA:CA at C$10.78 (11/11/23 Post), quote at TransAlta Corporation (TA.TO)
TAC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Projects in Development - TransAlta
TAC SEC Filings (Foreign issuer forms)
Profit Snapshot: +$161.86
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.06 per share, which I view as immaterial to any purchase or sell decision.
Since the shares were owned in a non-retirement account, Canada levies a 15% tax on the dividends.
USD Dividend History: TAC Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 8/30/24 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): TransAlta Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
E.P.S. per share: $.19
I view free cash flow as the relevant financial metric.
FCF: $172M
FCF per share: $.57, down from $1.05 in the 2023 second quarter.
FCF has been historically very volatile. This high kind of volatility will generally lower the multiple that investors are willing to pay.
2024 Guidance: FCF per share $1.47-$1.96 (that kind of range will also tend to lower the multiple given the high level of uncertainty).
FCF Calculation:
5. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Evergy Metro 3.65% Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 8/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.471:
%203.65%25%208:15:25.png)
Issuer: Formerly known as Kansas City Power & Light, one of the operating entities of the utility holding company Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
While the prospectus says that this is a senior unsecured bond, the EVRG 2023 Annual Report states that this bond is "Effectively secured pursuant to the General Mortgage Indenture and Deed of Trust dated as of December 1, 1986, as supplemented (Evergy Metro Mortgage Indenture) through the issuance of collateral mortgage bonds to the trustee in 2019." See page 128 which refers to this bond and footnote (g) at page 129 EVRG 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report
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| Page 128, reference to this bond with footnote (g) |
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| Page 129, footnote (g) |
This bond also has the same credit rating as the mortgage bonds issued by Evergy Metro.
EVRG 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Evergy Metro financial data starts at page 19.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 4.263%
Current Yield at TC = 3.67%
Last Evergy Metro Mortgage Bond Offering (4/24): Prospectus $300 in 5.4% Mortgage Bonds maturing in 2034, rated A2/A, Bond Page | FINRA.org
The SU bonds issued by the Evergy holding company are rated Baa2/BBB. I owned 10 Evergy SU bonds that matured on 9/15/24:
%20+$39.24%20RI%20.png) |
| RI Account |
%20+$86.36.png){kind=small}
%20+$175.png)
B. Bought 2 Affiliated Managers 3.5% SU Maturing on 8/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.1:
%203.5%25%208:1:25.png)
Issuer: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)
AMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.59%
Current Yield at TC = 3.53%
I now own 4 bonds.
C. Bought 2 CMS Energy 3.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.084:
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Issuer: CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) - Utility Holding Company
CMS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.432%
Current Yield at TC = 3.63%
I now own 6 bonds that includes 2 in a Roth IRA account.
D. Bought 2 Norfolk Southern 3.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/1/25 at a Total Cost of $99.4:
%20.png)
Issuer: Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) - Major Railroad
NSC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.376%
Current Yield at TC = 3.672%
E. Bought 2 Dover 3.15% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.78:
%203.15%25%2011:15:25.png)
Issuer: Dover Corp. (DOV)
DOV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.256%
Current Yield at TC = 3.189%
F. Bought 2 Ryder 3.35% SU Maturing on 9/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.989:
%20.png)
Issuer: Ryder System Inc. (R)
R Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.462%
Current Yield at TC: 3.384%
I own 2 Ryder 4.525% SU notes that mature on 6/1/25. I will be looking for a Ryder System bond to buy that matures in 2026.
I had 4 Ryder bonds mature earlier this year:
%20+$38%20.png){kind=small}
%20$37.3.png){kind=small}
G. Bought 1 UDR 3.5% SU Maturing on 1/25/28 at a Total Cost of 97.373:
%203.5%25%201:15:28.png)
Issuer: UDR Inc. - Apartment REIT
See Item # 3.A. above.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.364%
Current Yield: 3.594%
H. Bought 1 UDR 2.95% SU Maturing on 9/1/2026 at a Total Cost of 97.583:
%202.95%25%209:1:26.png)
Issuer: UDR Inc. - Apartment REIT
See Item # 3.A. above.
Finra page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.274%
Current Yield at TC = 3.023%
I. Bought 1 UDR 3.5% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 at a Total Cost of 97.833:
%203.5%25%207:1:27%20.png)
Issuer: UDR Inc.
See Item 3.A. above.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.323%
Current Yield at TC = 3.578%
6. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
When I sold a Canadian reset equity preferred that reset quarterly at a spread to the 3 month Canadian government T Bill, I mentioned that I would likely redirect the proceeds into a 5 year reset that had reset its coupon earlier this year, which I have done with the purchase discussed below (see Item # 5.A. Eliminated FFHPRD:CA - Sold 100 at C$22.2 (9/19/24 Post)
A. Added to ENBPRP:CA - Bought 100 at C$19.85:
Quote: ENB-PP.TO
Issuer: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
I own the common shares.
ENB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Enbridge Reports Strong Second Quarter 2024
Position in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred stock, senior only to common stock.
Preferred Shares and Hybrid Securities - Enbridge Inc.
Current ENBPRP:CA Position: 600 shares
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: resets every 5 years at 2.50% spread to the 5 year Canadian Government Bond yield.
Current Coupon: 5.918% to, but excluding, March 1, 2029.
In a prior post, I incorrectly had the reset coupon at 5.988% which I have corrected.
Optional Redemption: Every 5 years on the reset date, so this preferred stock is call protected until the next reset date in 2029.
Average cost per share: C$16.68
 |
| Snapshot as of close on 9/27/24 after add |
The AC per share was raised by this 100 share purchase from C$16.05.
Yield at C$16.68 = 8.87%
(.05918% x. C$25 par value = C$1.4795 annual dividend per share ÷ C$16.68 average cost per share = 8.8699%)
Annual Dividends for 600 shares: 887.4
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Withholding Tax: 15%
Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.A. Added to ENBPRP:CA - Bought 100 at C$16.2 (11/15/22 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to ENB.PRP:CA Bought 50 at C$11.98 and 50 at C$11.76 (6/13/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to ENB.PRP:CA-Bought 50 at C$16.47 (2/16/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 50 ENB.PRP:CA at C$15.68 (11/27/19 Post)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 out of 400 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.20 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$368); Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$963, contains a snapshot of a prior realized gain of US$1,458.25 converted by Fidelity into USDs from CADs.)
My video: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks - YouTube
7. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
The following purchases are primarily an income tax recognition shift into 2025 when I am expecting lower interest income compared to 2024.
All treasury bill purchases are now being made in my Schwab account where the settlement fund pays only .2%:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 9/30/24:
%201:2:25.png){kind=small}
91 Day Bills:
Mature on 1/2/25
Interest: $56.87
Investment Rate: 4.615%
B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 9/20/24 Auction:
182 Day Bills:
Mature on 4/3/25
Interest: $63.93
Investment Rate: 4.367%
C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 10/1/24 Auction:
Matures on 10/2/25
1 Year T Bill
Interest: $76.44
Investment Rate: 3.946%
D. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 10/2/24 Auction:
Matures on 2/4/25
Interest: $29.15
Investment Rate: 4.537%
8. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Sevierville, TN 3% GO Maturing on 6/1/2028 at a Total Cost of 99.54:
Emma Page
Credit Rating: Aa3
Interest: Federally Tax Free and paid semiannually
Optional Call Date: On or after 6/1/23
YTM at Total Cost: 3.131%
Current Yield: 3.0139%
Sevierville, Tennessee - Wikipedia
9. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Added to EMP - Bought 5 at $23.31; 5 at $22.71:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond
Cost: $230.09
I bought 5 shares shortly before the quarterly ex interest date and 5 shares on the ex interest date.
Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 (Entergy Mississippi results can be found at pages 125-138)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/30/25 after second add |
(.049% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 annual interest per share ÷ $222.04 average cost per share = 5.5581%)
Last Ex Interest Date: 9/30/24 (owned 50 in this account as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Bought 5 EMP in Fidelity Account at $22.75 (9/12/24 Post); Item # 5.B. Added to EMP in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $22.76 (9/5/24 Post); Item # 4.A. Added to EMP in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $22.48 (8/8/24 Post)
Current EMP Position in Taxable Account: 175 shares
Annual Interest 170 shares: $214.75
Maximum Position: 300 shares
Likely Consider to Pare Price: Greater than $24.5
EMP Realized Gains to Date: $464.9
Largest Gain:
 |
| 2019 EMP 70 shares +$207.92 |
Other Realized Gains:
 |
| IB Account |
 |
| Second Largest Gain - Schwab Account |
 |
| Vanguard Roth IRA Account |
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84 (6/27/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 30 EMP at $24.44 (2/13/19 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 EMP at $24.47 (7/22/17 Post)
10. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account 9/30 to 10/3:
The Fidelity Government MM (SPAXX) has a current 7 day yield of 4.61%. I use that fund as my sweep account.
Redemption Proceeds: $28,000
There was one early redemption. The Capital One bond was to mature on 10/30/24 and was redeemed on 10/1.
Almost all dividend payments are currently taken in cash.
Corporate bond interest payments are made throughout each month.
The last entry is for the $7.15 quarterly dividend of Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM), a digital and paper storage REIT. I have sold my position down to 10 shares and will likely sell the remaining harvest next year when I currently expect less taxable income than in 2024.
 |
| Price as of 10/2/24 Close/AC at $22.3/Unrealized Gain Then at $971.01 |
I received 7 shares of South Bow Corp. (SOBO:CA) as a spinoff from my 38 share position in TC Energy Corp. (TRP). South Bow operates 3045 miles of crude oil pipeline infrastructure, connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast.
Fidelity does not have the shares listed in my account under the SOBO:CA symbol but the U.S.D. priced SOBCF which is listed on the U.S. Grey Market.
The tax cost basis of my TRP shares was adjusted down to $37.59 from $41.29 to account for this spinoff.
**
Breakdown:
Corporate Bond Interest: $820.61
Municipal Bond Interest: $531.26
CD Interest: $42.41
Common Stock Dividend: $113.57
CEF Dividends: $178.47
ETF and Mutual Fund Dividends: $36.73
Equity Preferred Stock Dividends: $71.68
For the CEF dividend payments, the following pay monthly: AOD, AVK, BHK, BSTZ, BWG, ERC, ETW, FAX, FSCO, HFRO, JQC, JRI, KIO, MEGI, MIN, MMT, NAD, NMAI, PPT, THQ, WIW.
I own a number of first mortgage bonds issued by operating subsidiaries of utility holding companies. In the preceding snapshots, all of the references to Entergy Arkansas, Entergy Gulf States (merged with Entergy Louisiana) Entergy Louisiana, and Entergy Mississippi are to first mortgage bonds issued by those companies. All of those first mortgage bonds have $1,000 par values except for the EMP, an exchange traded first mortgage bond issued by Entergy Mississippi.
The municipal bonds referenced in the snapshots are general obligation bonds issued by counties located in Tennessee with the following current credit ratings:
Maury County: Aa2
Montgomery County: AA
Williamson County: Aaa
Wilson County: AA+
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Trump was literally convicted & liable in civil suits for.... Lying. Such an honest man.
ReplyDeleteVix over 20 for a day.
The September jobs report was better than expected with a 254,000 job increase, with the consensus at 150,000. The unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. The U-6 rate declined to 7.7% from 7.9%. The job number for July and August were revised up by 72,000. Average hourly earnings increased by 13 cents or .4%. Hourly earnings were up 4% over the past 12 months.
ReplyDeleteThere will be 1 more employment report prior to the next Fed meeting on 11/7/24. I still expect a 25 basis point cut in the FF range at that meeting which will be in doubt with an uptick in inflation and a good employment report for October. The CME FedWatch Tool still has that cut at 100%.
There will be only one more CPI report before that meeting and it will be released on 10/10/24.
Bonds are going up in yield and down in price in early trading today. This reflects some concern that economy may be entering a renewed growth phase that will put the FED on hold.
The dock workers' strike might counter that growth expectation.
DeleteI decided to sell today the 7 South Bow shares at US$21.79 that I received in a spinoff from TC Energy (TRP). I will mention that transaction in my next post.
ReplyDeleteI also received the cash liquidation for a fractional share. 1 South Bow share was received for each TRP share owned and I own 38.
The problem is that the shares as credited by Fidelity are traded only in the U.S. Grey Market. Many firms will not allowed their customers to trade Grey Market listed securities or change a high commission rate to do so. It is a dark market. Fidelity allowed me to sell the shares today without charging a commission. That may have changed in the future. Also the pricing of a Canadian stock traded on the Grey Market is not precisely linked to the Canadian price converted into USDs. SOHO:CA closed today at C$30.6, up C$.8, but was trading near C$29.75 when I place the order to sell the USD price shares.
I have the CAD priced South Bow shares on a monitor list and may buy a position on the Toronto exchange (SOBO:CA). I am set up to that in my Interactive Brokers account. I would pay a C$1 commission to buy a 100 share lot. I will wait to see the amount of the first dividend declaration and at least one earnings report before considering a purchase.
I just noticed last night, VIX is nearly as high as when the Nov 2023 rally started. I don't know what it means, but it's been creeping up.
ReplyDeletehttps://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d&t=VX
Land: When the VIX spiked in early August 2024, hitting an intraday high of 65.73 on 8/5, and then retreated to below 20 movement, I mentioned that that kind of movement may be a harbinger of increased volatility to come even though the spike higher did not last long enough to cause a Trigger Event.
DeleteVIX History
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/
The recent VIX movement is consistent so far with another volatility spike about to occur.
Part of the problem at the moment is that intermediate and longer term treasury yields are moving higher. The ten year treasury yield is currently at 4.03%, up from around 3.62% in mid-September.
Another issue is the recent persistent rise in WTI crude oil and gold prices. Those price increases are probably mostly related to concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East.
And if the Presidential election is close, as currently forecasted, there will be a lot of problems in the U.S. if Trump loses the state certified vote counts. Trump will not accept a loss even if the vote heavily favors Harris in important swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Dock workers have gone back to work and the parties are back to negotiating a new contract. The main remaining issue appears to be automation replacing workers.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/03/business/port-strike-union-deal/index.html
Thanks! That's several significant factors.
DeleteEven if there isn't election trouble, Trump voters will expect economic trouble. Plenty of market advisors and investors are Trump supporters.
It's hard to accept that people fell for his ghost written book, and then TV created image. Really unfortunate that original footage wasn't released back when. Not that anything has mattered to his flock.
Today was Oct 7th lots of memorials. It's like 9/11. I can't even keep track of how many hostages are still held. Over 100, from around the world. Learned Hezbollah had 20-30,000 terrorists lined up to do the same type of invasion into Israel. I don't expect this to escalate.
Land: I would attribute most of the recent stock market volatility to the rise in intermediate and long term treasury yields that has gathered momentum after the last jobs report.
DeleteThe ten year treasury yield closed at 3.63% on 9/16/24 and at 4.03% yesterday. During that same time period, the 30 year treasury yield has increased from 3.94% to 4.3%.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024
Trump's comments at the IAC had debates going of whether individuals should have walked out. I went to a later day of the IAC (and only that day). The setup made it hard to walk out. You'd miss other speakers you wanted to here, and not be very visible if leaving. (The IAC invited people from every political spectrum.)
ReplyDeleteHis comment was in line with his views of every single ethnicity and group as stereotypes, such as his comments you included on Harris, Haitians, Women... and if he noticed dogs, cats, and furry critters, he's stereotype and then blame them.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/10/colb-mfc-mga-sobcf-swz-tpvg-udr-wmb.html