Economy:
Morgan Stanley releases new forecast showing U.S. economy may drop as much as 38% in the 2nd quarter - MarketWatch
Job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate of 32%, Fed says
The BLS reported last Friday that the economy shed 701,000 jobs in March. Employment Situation Summary Average hourly earnings reportedly increased 3.1% over the past year. The average work week fell by .2 of an hour. Employment gains for January and February were revised down by 57K. The U-6 number rose to 8.7% from 7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization That number will be rising fast along with job losses. Payrolls drop by 701,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.4% from 3.5% The worst is yet to come.
Coronavirus 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF says
Jobs report: Household survey shows nearly 3 million out of work The 701K job loss comes from the BLS survey of employers.
The U.S. officially lost 701,000 jobs in March, but in reality millions vanished - MarketWatch
ADP reported that private employers cut only 27K jobs vs. expectations of a 125K loss. ADP National Employment Report | March 2020; ADP jobs report: Companies cut 27,000 jobs before the worst of the coronavirus
The ADP number does not reflect what actually happened in March. Jobless claims leap record 6.6 million at end of March as coronavirus triggers mass layoffs - MarketWatch I am assuming that ADP did not include the 1 million or so layoffs in the March report but will do so when it releases its April report.
It is practically a given now that a broad shutdown will continue through April.
At least Donald has finally accepted the medical reality. Coronavirus: Trump extends social distancing guidelines through April 30
Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA analysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million-MarketWatch That is a reasonable prediction, but investors have already accepted that the second quarter will be a disaster.
U.S. service sector continued to expand in March, ISM says - MarketWatch ISM's services PMI for March was reported at 52.5, down from 57.3% in March. Any number over 50 indicates an ongoing expansion. Any PMI report for March that shows expansion is immediately suspect.
The question is whether a robust recovery can start no later than the third quarter and definitely avoid being delayed into 2021.
With depression like conditions continuing into the third quarter and no positive GDP growth in the 4th quarter, the likelihood of a Financial Armageddon scenario will increase substantially IMO.
That kind of scenario would most likely be triggered by widespread debt defaults and blowups of various derivative and other complex financial instruments that would make the 2008 debt bomb implosion look tame in comparison.
There is after all more than $90 trillion more worldwide debt now than back in 2007. (note the last compilation that I have seen was $72 trillion in new debt starting in 2009 through the 2017 third quarter Global debt: An interactive data visualization | McKinsey
The current estimate is that global debt closed at $253 trillion in last year's third quarter. The world is drowning in debt - CNN So if that is close, call it somewhere near $260 trillion now and about to expand parabolically.
The world's financial system is simply in a more precarious state when a worldwide depression comes into contact with excessive debt levels. The depressionary conditions can not continue for long before there is another catastrophic debt implosion.
Morgan Stanley releases new forecast showing U.S. economy may drop as much as 38% in the 2nd quarter - MarketWatch
Job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate of 32%, Fed says
The BLS reported last Friday that the economy shed 701,000 jobs in March. Employment Situation Summary Average hourly earnings reportedly increased 3.1% over the past year. The average work week fell by .2 of an hour. Employment gains for January and February were revised down by 57K. The U-6 number rose to 8.7% from 7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization That number will be rising fast along with job losses. Payrolls drop by 701,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.4% from 3.5% The worst is yet to come.
Coronavirus 'way worse than the global financial crisis,' IMF says
Jobs report: Household survey shows nearly 3 million out of work The 701K job loss comes from the BLS survey of employers.
The U.S. officially lost 701,000 jobs in March, but in reality millions vanished - MarketWatch
ADP reported that private employers cut only 27K jobs vs. expectations of a 125K loss. ADP National Employment Report | March 2020; ADP jobs report: Companies cut 27,000 jobs before the worst of the coronavirus
The ADP number does not reflect what actually happened in March. Jobless claims leap record 6.6 million at end of March as coronavirus triggers mass layoffs - MarketWatch I am assuming that ADP did not include the 1 million or so layoffs in the March report but will do so when it releases its April report.
It is practically a given now that a broad shutdown will continue through April.
At least Donald has finally accepted the medical reality. Coronavirus: Trump extends social distancing guidelines through April 30
Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA analysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million-MarketWatch That is a reasonable prediction, but investors have already accepted that the second quarter will be a disaster.
U.S. service sector continued to expand in March, ISM says - MarketWatch ISM's services PMI for March was reported at 52.5, down from 57.3% in March. Any number over 50 indicates an ongoing expansion. Any PMI report for March that shows expansion is immediately suspect.
The question is whether a robust recovery can start no later than the third quarter and definitely avoid being delayed into 2021.
With depression like conditions continuing into the third quarter and no positive GDP growth in the 4th quarter, the likelihood of a Financial Armageddon scenario will increase substantially IMO.
That kind of scenario would most likely be triggered by widespread debt defaults and blowups of various derivative and other complex financial instruments that would make the 2008 debt bomb implosion look tame in comparison.
There is after all more than $90 trillion more worldwide debt now than back in 2007. (note the last compilation that I have seen was $72 trillion in new debt starting in 2009 through the 2017 third quarter Global debt: An interactive data visualization | McKinsey
The current estimate is that global debt closed at $253 trillion in last year's third quarter. The world is drowning in debt - CNN So if that is close, call it somewhere near $260 trillion now and about to expand parabolically.
The world's financial system is simply in a more precarious state when a worldwide depression comes into contact with excessive debt levels. The depressionary conditions can not continue for long before there is another catastrophic debt implosion.
As I mentioned earlier, an important development on the path to normalcy is the ability to receive COVID-19 test results quickly. Coronavirus: FDA authorizes Abbott Labs' 5-minute COVID-19 test Abbott's test device is the size of a toaster and is portable to point-of-care locations. Workers can be tested before entering the workplace. Those who are identified as having COVID-19 can then be quickly isolated and treated if necessary.
Coronavirus: Cramer says science can prevent economy from a depression
World's busiest border falls quiet with millions of Mexicans barred from U.S. - Reuters
China reports March manufacturing PMI amid coronavirus outbreak
Germany faces big growth hit in first half, second-half recovery possible: minister - Reuters
U.K. government forces banks to lend to small businesses on the brink of collapse - MarketWatch
Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time - The New York Times (quotes Kenneth S. Rogoff, author of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ”: "“I feel like the 2008 financial crisis was just a dry run for this. . This is already shaping up as the deepest dive on record for the global economy for over 100 years. Everything depends on how long it lasts, but if this goes on for a long time, it’s certainly going to be the mother of all financial crises.”
Banks warn of 'utter chaos' in new small business lending program
The ‘red’ states on this map are putting the rest of the country at risk amid the spreading coronavirus pandemic - MarketWatch This should surprise no one.
Protecting Your Family From COVID-19 by Dr. David Price - YouTube
Coronavirus: Cramer says science can prevent economy from a depression
World's busiest border falls quiet with millions of Mexicans barred from U.S. - Reuters
China reports March manufacturing PMI amid coronavirus outbreak
U.K. government forces banks to lend to small businesses on the brink of collapse - MarketWatch
Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time - The New York Times (quotes Kenneth S. Rogoff, author of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ”: "“I feel like the 2008 financial crisis was just a dry run for this. . This is already shaping up as the deepest dive on record for the global economy for over 100 years. Everything depends on how long it lasts, but if this goes on for a long time, it’s certainly going to be the mother of all financial crises.”
Banks warn of 'utter chaos' in new small business lending program
The ‘red’ states on this map are putting the rest of the country at risk amid the spreading coronavirus pandemic - MarketWatch This should surprise no one.
Protecting Your Family From COVID-19 by Dr. David Price - YouTube
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Jeffrey Gundlach says the coronavirus sell-off will worsen again in April, taking out the March low
Coronavirus unleashing an 'economic shock wave,' Mark Yusko warns
Moody's cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to 'negative'
Oil drops more than 6% to 18-year low as global demand evaporates (3/30 article)
It certainly looks like the FED has some responsibility for blowing up the MREITs. Mortgage bankers warn Fed purchases of mortgages unbalanced market, forcing margin calls
As the Fed steps into the municipal bond market, will it be enough? - MarketWatch
Prices of publicly traded securities tell a story.
The story is about the future.
The prices for regional bank stocks and BDCs are currently telling a grim story for the U.S. economy that includes massive and rapidly accelerating credit defaults.
Father of Wall Street's 'fear gauge' sees wild volatility continuing until coronavirus cases peak I doubt that much upside is possible, other than as a short term trade, until infections peak and fall significantly, or a vaccine becomes available which is probably a 2021 event as a best case scenario.
Why do so many people need financial help? - MarketWatch Calls by millennials to their parents have probably surged in recent days.
Stanley Black & Decker withdraws 2020 guidance over coronavirus, reins in costs - MarketWatch
OPEC+ virtual meeting in doubt for Monday after Saudi Arabia sharply criticizes Russia - MarketWatch Oil rallied last week based on Trump's claim that he had brought OPEC and Russia together on production cuts.
+++++
Portfolio Management:
As of last Friday the current 7 day yield on Fidelity Government Money Market fund was .07%:
The result of the FED's 10+ year Jihad Against the Savings Class is shown in this snapshot:
My general approach continues to be extreme caution.
I am keeping a very large cash reserve.
Since I am unlikely to reinvest all or even most of proceeds received from maturing bonds, treasury bills and CDs, the cash pile will be growing from already elevated levels in the coming months.
For common stock purchases, it may take as many as 20 purchases before I reach 100 shares.
I am using the small ball "buying program" strategy to restart positions in stock ETFs that were jettisoned last December. The wave "buy programs" usually occur on big down days and will definitely happen when the market is headed for a new 52 week low.
Those ETFs include the following: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV)
I will also use a few Fidelity mutual funds in future small ball "buying programs". I can buy those with no minimums at Fidelity. I will focus on two of them for now: Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio (FSPTX) and Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX)(mentioned below)
Over the past 2 to 3 weeks, I substantially increased my purchases of high quality corporate bonds maturing within 1 year. The opportunities in that space have mostly disappeared, though it may be possible to pick up some strays with limit orders. Last Friday, I had no fills on 10 limit buy orders.
The window of opportunity for purchases of those short term corporate bonds lasted for about 2 weeks. I diverted over $100K in cash held in money market funds into those purchases. The Fidelity Government MM fund is now yielding less than .1%. The YTMs on the bond purchases mostly fell into the 4% to 6% range.
The nation has entered a quarter that will probably have the worst economic numbers in U.S. history, higher than any quarter during the Great Depression.
Millions of households, who were on the brink of financial disaster before the pandemic, will be unable to pay their bills.
The stimulus checks may allow them to put food on the table and to pay utility bills when they start to arrive in a few weeks, but will be insufficient to pay or partially pay 1 month's rent and most other expenses.
The impact of going from full employment to a record unemployment number within 30 days is not fully understood, both as to the present consumer spending and to future consumer spending based on psychological trauma resulting from what is happening now and about to happen.
The massive increases in federal spending, coupled with losses in federal revenues due to the deep recession, will cause close to a $4 trillion dollar budget deficit in 2020 or about 4 times more than the entire U.S. debt in 1980.
The Day of Reckoning is consequently moved closer to the present, when a financial disaster of epic proportions can not be averted by issuing trillions more in new government debt since the inability to refinance all of the maturing debt, without the FED engaging in a massive debt monetization, precipitated the Day of Reckoning.
Stanley Black & Decker withdraws 2020 guidance over coronavirus, reins in costs - MarketWatch
OPEC+ virtual meeting in doubt for Monday after Saudi Arabia sharply criticizes Russia - MarketWatch Oil rallied last week based on Trump's claim that he had brought OPEC and Russia together on production cuts.
Portfolio Management:
As of last Friday the current 7 day yield on Fidelity Government Money Market fund was .07%:
 |
| Fidelity Government Money Market Fund |
I am keeping a very large cash reserve.
Since I am unlikely to reinvest all or even most of proceeds received from maturing bonds, treasury bills and CDs, the cash pile will be growing from already elevated levels in the coming months.
For common stock purchases, it may take as many as 20 purchases before I reach 100 shares.
I am using the small ball "buying program" strategy to restart positions in stock ETFs that were jettisoned last December. The wave "buy programs" usually occur on big down days and will definitely happen when the market is headed for a new 52 week low.
Those ETFs include the following: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV)
I will also use a few Fidelity mutual funds in future small ball "buying programs". I can buy those with no minimums at Fidelity. I will focus on two of them for now: Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio (FSPTX) and Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX)(mentioned below)
Over the past 2 to 3 weeks, I substantially increased my purchases of high quality corporate bonds maturing within 1 year. The opportunities in that space have mostly disappeared, though it may be possible to pick up some strays with limit orders. Last Friday, I had no fills on 10 limit buy orders.
The window of opportunity for purchases of those short term corporate bonds lasted for about 2 weeks. I diverted over $100K in cash held in money market funds into those purchases. The Fidelity Government MM fund is now yielding less than .1%. The YTMs on the bond purchases mostly fell into the 4% to 6% range.
The nation has entered a quarter that will probably have the worst economic numbers in U.S. history, higher than any quarter during the Great Depression.
Millions of households, who were on the brink of financial disaster before the pandemic, will be unable to pay their bills.
The stimulus checks may allow them to put food on the table and to pay utility bills when they start to arrive in a few weeks, but will be insufficient to pay or partially pay 1 month's rent and most other expenses.
The impact of going from full employment to a record unemployment number within 30 days is not fully understood, both as to the present consumer spending and to future consumer spending based on psychological trauma resulting from what is happening now and about to happen.
The massive increases in federal spending, coupled with losses in federal revenues due to the deep recession, will cause close to a $4 trillion dollar budget deficit in 2020 or about 4 times more than the entire U.S. debt in 1980.
The Day of Reckoning is consequently moved closer to the present, when a financial disaster of epic proportions can not be averted by issuing trillions more in new government debt since the inability to refinance all of the maturing debt, without the FED engaging in a massive debt monetization, precipitated the Day of Reckoning.
+++++
Trump:
February 24:
March 9th Trump Tweet:
Trump administration's lack of a unified coronavirus strategy will cost lives, say a dozen experts
Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help
Trump does not believe a national pandemic requires a coordinated national response with the President leading the way. The United States leads in coronavirus cases, but not pandemic response-AAAS; Trump ended coronavirus detection pandemic program - Los Angeles Times
Denial and dysfunction plagued U.S. government as coronavirus raged - The Washington Post In TrumpWorld, inhabited by almost 50% of the American population, Donald's handling of this crisis is graded either at A or A+.
After Jared Kushner redefined the "national stockpile" of respirators and personal protective equipment as being for the federal government, the Trump Administration changed the webpage at HHS to conform to Kushner's redefinition. Coronavirus: After Kushner, 'national stockpile' redefined
This is what the HHS website said before Kushner's statement:
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency.”
After Trump and his son-in law decided to change the scope of federal assistance and responsibilities during national emergencies, HHS redefined what the government's role by deleting the sentence quoted above and then replacing it with the following:
“The Strategic National Stockpile’s role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available.”
After Kushner says 'it's our stockpile,' HHS website changed to echo his comments on federal crisis role - ABC News
The Trump Administration is distributing much needed items to private distributors who can then sell the product for a profit. This practice leads to states bidding against one another for essential medical supplies. NBC News - Navy Rear Adm. John Polowczyk: "I'm not here to disrupt a supply chain"; Bidding wars break out as cities, states, hospitals struggle to procure personal protective equipment - ABC7 Los Angeles
U.S. could face 200,000 coronavirus deaths, millions of cases, Fauci warns The issue with this kind of virus is that it only takes one infected person to start the ball rolling. This virus does not respect borders or quarantines. The only way to stop the ball rolling altogether is to develop an effective vaccine.
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly'
WHO says 'more and more' young people are dying from the coronavirus
Fauci urges nationwide stay-at-home order: ‘I don’t understand why that’s not happening’ - MarketWatch
Mike Pence was on the phone to Thai officials last week requesting medical supplies from that country. He was informed that the U.S. had just shipped those same supplies to Thailand. Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash-POLITICO; US freezes shipments of protective gear overseas The Trump Administration realized on March 27, 2020 that the U.S. government was shipping personal protective equipment to foreign countries.
Trump sent to China in February 17.8 million tons of medical supplies now urgently needed by U.S. hospitals. Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he was minimizing the virus threat to US,
See: The United States Announces Assistance To Combat the Novel Coronavirus - United States Department of State
According to Donald's revisionist history, he knew then that there would be a devastating pandemic in the U.S. long before the World Health Organization declared one.
If that claim is true, a reasonable question to ask is why did his Administration send 18 tones of medical supplies from the U.S. to China last February.
The Trump Administration did not renew a contract to maintain the ventilators held in reserve. As a result, over 20% of the ventilators in the federal government's reserve no longer work. A Ventilator Stockpile, With One Hitch: Thousands Do Not Work - The New York Times
Fact check: Trump again misleads on ventilator shortages and coronavirus timeline at off-topic briefing
February 24:
 |
| Don the Magnificent Has it Under Control-Buy Stocks the Duck Recommends |
 |
| Just Another Juvenile Tweet-One Among Thousands |
Inside the coronavirus testing failure: Alarm and dismay among the scientists who sought to help
Trump does not believe a national pandemic requires a coordinated national response with the President leading the way. The United States leads in coronavirus cases, but not pandemic response-AAAS; Trump ended coronavirus detection pandemic program - Los Angeles Times
Denial and dysfunction plagued U.S. government as coronavirus raged - The Washington Post In TrumpWorld, inhabited by almost 50% of the American population, Donald's handling of this crisis is graded either at A or A+.
After Jared Kushner redefined the "national stockpile" of respirators and personal protective equipment as being for the federal government, the Trump Administration changed the webpage at HHS to conform to Kushner's redefinition. Coronavirus: After Kushner, 'national stockpile' redefined
This is what the HHS website said before Kushner's statement:
“When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency.”
After Trump and his son-in law decided to change the scope of federal assistance and responsibilities during national emergencies, HHS redefined what the government's role by deleting the sentence quoted above and then replacing it with the following:
“The Strategic National Stockpile’s role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available.”
After Kushner says 'it's our stockpile,' HHS website changed to echo his comments on federal crisis role - ABC News
The Trump Administration is distributing much needed items to private distributors who can then sell the product for a profit. This practice leads to states bidding against one another for essential medical supplies. NBC News - Navy Rear Adm. John Polowczyk: "I'm not here to disrupt a supply chain"; Bidding wars break out as cities, states, hospitals struggle to procure personal protective equipment - ABC7 Los Angeles
U.S. could face 200,000 coronavirus deaths, millions of cases, Fauci warns The issue with this kind of virus is that it only takes one infected person to start the ball rolling. This virus does not respect borders or quarantines. The only way to stop the ball rolling altogether is to develop an effective vaccine.
Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly'
WHO says 'more and more' young people are dying from the coronavirus
Fauci urges nationwide stay-at-home order: ‘I don’t understand why that’s not happening’ - MarketWatch
Mike Pence was on the phone to Thai officials last week requesting medical supplies from that country. He was informed that the U.S. had just shipped those same supplies to Thailand. Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash-POLITICO; US freezes shipments of protective gear overseas The Trump Administration realized on March 27, 2020 that the U.S. government was shipping personal protective equipment to foreign countries.
Trump sent to China in February 17.8 million tons of medical supplies now urgently needed by U.S. hospitals. Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he was minimizing the virus threat to US,
See: The United States Announces Assistance To Combat the Novel Coronavirus - United States Department of State
According to Donald's revisionist history, he knew then that there would be a devastating pandemic in the U.S. long before the World Health Organization declared one.
If that claim is true, a reasonable question to ask is why did his Administration send 18 tones of medical supplies from the U.S. to China last February.
The Trump Administration did not renew a contract to maintain the ventilators held in reserve. As a result, over 20% of the ventilators in the federal government's reserve no longer work. A Ventilator Stockpile, With One Hitch: Thousands Do Not Work - The New York Times
Fact check: Trump again misleads on ventilator shortages and coronavirus timeline at off-topic briefing
Coronavirus Live Updates: Grim Models Project High U.S. Toll in Months-Long Crisis
Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV)- John Hopkins running worldwide tally
Gov. Hogan (R-_MD) Critical Of Trump Administration, FEMA’s Lack Of Coordination On COVID-19 Tests, Supplies-CBS Baltimore;
Maryland’s Governor, a Republican, Is Willing to Spar With Trump for Supplies
Trump’s botched response and the lack of testing, explained - Vox;
Why Trump's Coronavirus Response Was Never Going to Work | Time;
Trump blames states for lack of supplies-The Guardian
He blames governors and mayors for whining about shortages, suggesting that their requests are merely political attacks on him, and claiming that the federal government is merely a backstop in a national crisis.
More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu (4/2/2020)- FACT CHECK: Coronavirus Is Not The Flu, Despite Trump's Comparison-NPR; Trump's Deadly Mistake in Comparing Coronavirus to Flu
Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV)- John Hopkins running worldwide tally
Gov. Hogan (R-_MD) Critical Of Trump Administration, FEMA’s Lack Of Coordination On COVID-19 Tests, Supplies-CBS Baltimore;
Maryland’s Governor, a Republican, Is Willing to Spar With Trump for Supplies
Trump’s botched response and the lack of testing, explained - Vox;
Why Trump's Coronavirus Response Was Never Going to Work | Time;
Trump blames states for lack of supplies-The Guardian
He blames governors and mayors for whining about shortages, suggesting that their requests are merely political attacks on him, and claiming that the federal government is merely a backstop in a national crisis.
 |
| 4/2/20 Tweet |
President Trump touts his ‘astounding’ TV ratings, compares his coronavirus press briefings to ‘The Bachelor’ - MarketWatch At least we know what is really important to Donald. He has turned the daily coronavirus briefing into yet another self promotion scheme.
Teflon Don has given more time to Trumpster CEOs at his COVID-19 briefings than the medical professionals. Corporate executives play an outsize role at Trump’s coronavirus briefings - The Washington Post
On 3/31, Trump gave time for the "My Pillow" pitchman, Michael J. Lindell, to do an informercial and religious sermon:
Lindell: “God gave us grace on November 8, 2016, to change the course we were on. God had been taken out of our schools and lives. A nation had turned its back on God. . Thank you, Mr. President, for your call to action, which has empowered companies like “My Pillow” to help our nation win this invisible war." The Trumpster CEOs praise Donald effusively and, by doing so, earn the Duck's gratitude as President.
I can understand why Donald, the guy who gave us Trump University, is so simpatico with MY Pillow's pitchman: MyPillow accreditation revoked by the Better Business Bureau; BBB rates MyPillow with a "F". My Pillow, Inc. | Complaints | Better Business Bureau® Profile
When Montana's governor told Donald last week that his state was one day away from being unable to test anyone, Donald said he knew nothing about the shortage of test kits. I have been reading daily about those shortages for weeks. I have no doubt that Donald has been briefed about the shortages.
Leaked audio: Trump says “I haven’t heard” about coronavirus testing problem - Vox;
Governors plead for medical equipment from federal stockpile plagued by shortages and confusion - The Washington Post;
Trump Suggests Lack of Testing Is No Longer a Problem. Governors Disagree. - The New York Times
Fact check: Trump again touts unproven drugs for coronavirus (3/20/20)
A breakdown of false and misleading statements at Trump Rose Garden briefing (3/29/20)
Fact-checking President Trump’s marathon news conference - The Washington Post
Trump's idea to use scarf is unproven, doctors say
Trump and the Coronavirus Death Projections-FactCheck.org Trump claims that he just found out on 3/30, as a new revelation, that hundreds of thousands could die in the U.S. without immediate actions. Sitting at a desk in Brentwood, Tennessee, with no hot line to experts but only an internet connection and curiosity, I started to talk about those projections being made by experts in early March.
Donald is the primary source of Fake News. He is constantly making statements that are not true. He just makes stuff up. Trump's Premature Claim about Ventilator Production - FactCheck.org
Politifact rated these recent Trump statements "Pants on Fire": PolitiFact | Reporter was right: Trump did question governors’ ventilator requests; PolitiFact | Trump blames past administrations for a flawed COVID-19 test. The test couldn’t have existed earlier
Trump’s Virus Defense Is Often an Attack, and the Target Is Often a Woman - The New York Times Disgusting Don, the personification of a white republican Alpha Male, routinely views women as inferiors and woefully inadequate to perform a job competently.
When a black woman asked Donald about his statement that states were making requests for ventilators that were not needed, he snapped at her and made the following statement without answering the question of course: “Be nice. Don’t be threatening. Don’t be threatening. Be nice.” Donald will snap at women who mark him feel inferior, challenge him in any manner or ask him a question as part of their job that he does not want to answer.
Donald will become instantly hostile when anyone questions the revisionist history that he is writing, which will of course be accepted as gospel by the Trumpsters, notwithstanding the fact that Trump's own words, caught on tape or published on Twitter, contradict his attempts to revise recent history.
Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he was minimizing the virus threat to US
‘Where Are The Masks Going?’ Trump Questions Use Of Supplies As Coronavirus Cases Surge Trump's general approach is formulate conspiracy theories that are not grounded in fact to deflect from his own incompetence.
Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus Fears, Too - The New York Times Jerry Falwell, a 100% pure Trumpster, runs Liberty University and, like Trump, has downplayed the pandemic comparing it to the flu. He dismissed concerns as a "overreaction" driven by liberals wanting to hurt the Messiah in the White House. Falwell made the following statements on March 11, 2020 during a "Fox and Friends" interview: “It’s just strange to me how many are overreacting” to the pandemic It makes you wonder if there is a political reason for that. Impeachment didn’t work and the Mueller report didn’t work and Article 25 didn’t work, and so maybe now this is their next attempt to get Trump.”
Falwell invited Liberty University's students back to campus and now many are displaying symptoms of COVID-19. Falwell, who claims to be a conservative, says the criticism of his actions are only motivated by anti-Christian sentiments. An authoritarian power structure brought coronavirus to Liberty University - The Washington Post
Far right reactionaries send their children for indoctrination at Liberty which now has close to 100,000 students. Falwell fits neatly into the modern day GOP.
‘Someone’s Gotta Tell the Freakin’ Truth’: Jerry Falwell’s Aides Break Their Silence - POLITICO Magazine; The Three Craziest Takeaways From Politico's Jerry Falwell Jr. Deep Dive | RELEVANT Magazine
Inside Liberty University’s ‘culture of fear’: How Jerry Falwell Jr. silences students and professors who reject his pro-Trump politics.-The Washington Post;
Jerry Falwell's Systematic Censorship at Liberty University Is Shocking—and Bound to Backfire; Jerry Falwell Jr. just unmasked social conservatism | Salon.com
Trump's bad character and incompetence has been obvious for decades. Tens of millions confuse continuous bragging about competence and actual competence.
Trump's areas of competence are shamelessness; creating a false image and brand; innate understanding of the gullible and uninformed and how to manipulate them; braggadocio like the world has rarely seen; daily doses of demagoguery; malignant narcissism that is so pervasive that it may deserve a #1 rating the the Guinness World Records; and making false statements all of the time about almost everything while being able to keep a straight and serious face. In TrumpWorld, those are all admirable qualities that parents need to teach their children.
Politicians desiring success can learn a lot from Donald. Lying works in American politics because so many are ignorant, stupid or both, and people became quickly bored with long sentences that contain real facts about critical issues facing the nation. 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children' Hopeless is a word that comes to mind.
Donald claims that his actions are "perfect". When confined to the preceding categories of competence, he has achieved perfection or at least as close as any human desiring to possess those qualities.
Medical Expert Who Corrects Trump Is Now a Target of the Far Right - The New York Times Trumpsters will direct their frenzied vitriol at anyone who contradicts Donald's reality creations with facts. The only requirement is that they become aware of someone having the gall to do it.
Teflon Don has given more time to Trumpster CEOs at his COVID-19 briefings than the medical professionals. Corporate executives play an outsize role at Trump’s coronavirus briefings - The Washington Post
On 3/31, Trump gave time for the "My Pillow" pitchman, Michael J. Lindell, to do an informercial and religious sermon:
Lindell: “God gave us grace on November 8, 2016, to change the course we were on. God had been taken out of our schools and lives. A nation had turned its back on God. . Thank you, Mr. President, for your call to action, which has empowered companies like “My Pillow” to help our nation win this invisible war." The Trumpster CEOs praise Donald effusively and, by doing so, earn the Duck's gratitude as President.
I can understand why Donald, the guy who gave us Trump University, is so simpatico with MY Pillow's pitchman: MyPillow accreditation revoked by the Better Business Bureau; BBB rates MyPillow with a "F". My Pillow, Inc. | Complaints | Better Business Bureau® Profile
When Montana's governor told Donald last week that his state was one day away from being unable to test anyone, Donald said he knew nothing about the shortage of test kits. I have been reading daily about those shortages for weeks. I have no doubt that Donald has been briefed about the shortages.
Leaked audio: Trump says “I haven’t heard” about coronavirus testing problem - Vox;
Governors plead for medical equipment from federal stockpile plagued by shortages and confusion - The Washington Post;
Trump Suggests Lack of Testing Is No Longer a Problem. Governors Disagree. - The New York Times
Fact check: Trump again touts unproven drugs for coronavirus (3/20/20)
A breakdown of false and misleading statements at Trump Rose Garden briefing (3/29/20)
Fact-checking President Trump’s marathon news conference - The Washington Post
Trump's idea to use scarf is unproven, doctors say
Trump and the Coronavirus Death Projections-FactCheck.org Trump claims that he just found out on 3/30, as a new revelation, that hundreds of thousands could die in the U.S. without immediate actions. Sitting at a desk in Brentwood, Tennessee, with no hot line to experts but only an internet connection and curiosity, I started to talk about those projections being made by experts in early March.
Donald is the primary source of Fake News. He is constantly making statements that are not true. He just makes stuff up. Trump's Premature Claim about Ventilator Production - FactCheck.org
Politifact rated these recent Trump statements "Pants on Fire": PolitiFact | Reporter was right: Trump did question governors’ ventilator requests; PolitiFact | Trump blames past administrations for a flawed COVID-19 test. The test couldn’t have existed earlier
Trump’s Virus Defense Is Often an Attack, and the Target Is Often a Woman - The New York Times Disgusting Don, the personification of a white republican Alpha Male, routinely views women as inferiors and woefully inadequate to perform a job competently.
When a black woman asked Donald about his statement that states were making requests for ventilators that were not needed, he snapped at her and made the following statement without answering the question of course: “Be nice. Don’t be threatening. Don’t be threatening. Be nice.” Donald will snap at women who mark him feel inferior, challenge him in any manner or ask him a question as part of their job that he does not want to answer.
Donald will become instantly hostile when anyone questions the revisionist history that he is writing, which will of course be accepted as gospel by the Trumpsters, notwithstanding the fact that Trump's own words, caught on tape or published on Twitter, contradict his attempts to revise recent history.
Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he was minimizing the virus threat to US
‘Where Are The Masks Going?’ Trump Questions Use Of Supplies As Coronavirus Cases Surge Trump's general approach is formulate conspiracy theories that are not grounded in fact to deflect from his own incompetence.
Liberty University Brings Back Its Students, and Coronavirus Fears, Too - The New York Times Jerry Falwell, a 100% pure Trumpster, runs Liberty University and, like Trump, has downplayed the pandemic comparing it to the flu. He dismissed concerns as a "overreaction" driven by liberals wanting to hurt the Messiah in the White House. Falwell made the following statements on March 11, 2020 during a "Fox and Friends" interview: “It’s just strange to me how many are overreacting” to the pandemic It makes you wonder if there is a political reason for that. Impeachment didn’t work and the Mueller report didn’t work and Article 25 didn’t work, and so maybe now this is their next attempt to get Trump.”
Falwell invited Liberty University's students back to campus and now many are displaying symptoms of COVID-19. Falwell, who claims to be a conservative, says the criticism of his actions are only motivated by anti-Christian sentiments. An authoritarian power structure brought coronavirus to Liberty University - The Washington Post
Far right reactionaries send their children for indoctrination at Liberty which now has close to 100,000 students. Falwell fits neatly into the modern day GOP.
‘Someone’s Gotta Tell the Freakin’ Truth’: Jerry Falwell’s Aides Break Their Silence - POLITICO Magazine; The Three Craziest Takeaways From Politico's Jerry Falwell Jr. Deep Dive | RELEVANT Magazine
Inside Liberty University’s ‘culture of fear’: How Jerry Falwell Jr. silences students and professors who reject his pro-Trump politics.-The Washington Post;
Jerry Falwell's Systematic Censorship at Liberty University Is Shocking—and Bound to Backfire; Jerry Falwell Jr. just unmasked social conservatism | Salon.com
Trump's bad character and incompetence has been obvious for decades. Tens of millions confuse continuous bragging about competence and actual competence.
Trump's areas of competence are shamelessness; creating a false image and brand; innate understanding of the gullible and uninformed and how to manipulate them; braggadocio like the world has rarely seen; daily doses of demagoguery; malignant narcissism that is so pervasive that it may deserve a #1 rating the the Guinness World Records; and making false statements all of the time about almost everything while being able to keep a straight and serious face. In TrumpWorld, those are all admirable qualities that parents need to teach their children.
Politicians desiring success can learn a lot from Donald. Lying works in American politics because so many are ignorant, stupid or both, and people became quickly bored with long sentences that contain real facts about critical issues facing the nation. 72 percent of Republicans think Trump is 'a good role model for children' Hopeless is a word that comes to mind.
Donald claims that his actions are "perfect". When confined to the preceding categories of competence, he has achieved perfection or at least as close as any human desiring to possess those qualities.
Medical Expert Who Corrects Trump Is Now a Target of the Far Right - The New York Times Trumpsters will direct their frenzied vitriol at anyone who contradicts Donald's reality creations with facts. The only requirement is that they become aware of someone having the gall to do it.
Fox News’ Laura Ingraham Forced to Delete Misleading Coronavirus Tweet – Variety
Alarm, Denial, Blame: The Pro-Trump Media’s Coronavirus Distortion - The New York Times
In a recent article written by Karen Swisher, she detailed how hard it was to convince her elderly mother, who only watched Fox "News", that she needed to take precautions. Opinion | Fox’s Fake News Contagion - The New York Times
Twitter DELETES Rudy Giuliani Lie About Coronavirus, Whitmer Showboat Rudy and Laura Ingraham are two of the leading providers of Fake News. Donald, of course, is the primary provider of Fake News in World History.
Alarm, Denial, Blame: The Pro-Trump Media’s Coronavirus Distortion - The New York Times
In a recent article written by Karen Swisher, she detailed how hard it was to convince her elderly mother, who only watched Fox "News", that she needed to take precautions. Opinion | Fox’s Fake News Contagion - The New York Times
Twitter DELETES Rudy Giuliani Lie About Coronavirus, Whitmer Showboat Rudy and Laura Ingraham are two of the leading providers of Fake News. Donald, of course, is the primary provider of Fake News in World History.
++++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
1. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Sub-Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks
A. Bought 10 GNLPRB at $17.7; 5 at $15.5; 10 at $15.11; 2 at $10.86; 3 at $15.49 (Fidelity account small ball):
As with other REIT preferred stocks the price collapse in early March as stock market volatility spiked and common stocks went into the crapper. On 3/5/20, GNLPRB closed at $25.05.
GNLPRB Information: IPO in November 2019
Coupon: 6.875%
Par Value: $25 Prospectus
Issuer: Global Net Lease Inc.
Issuer Issuer SEC Filings
Issuer Optional Redemption: on or after 11/26/24
Stopper Clause: Yes
Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock, junior in priority to all debt
Average Cost Per Share This Account: $15
Dividend Yield at $15 Total Cost = 11.46%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified (pass through entity)
I also own 100 shares in my Schwab account
Last Ex Dividend: 4/2/20 (all shares purchased prior thereto)
Maximum All Accounts: 150 shares
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
1. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Sub-Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks
A. Bought 10 GNLPRB at $17.7; 5 at $15.5; 10 at $15.11; 2 at $10.86; 3 at $15.49 (Fidelity account small ball):
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GNLPRB Information: IPO in November 2019
Coupon: 6.875%
Par Value: $25 Prospectus
Issuer: Global Net Lease Inc.
Issuer Issuer SEC Filings
Issuer Optional Redemption: on or after 11/26/24
Stopper Clause: Yes
Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock, junior in priority to all debt
Average Cost Per Share This Account: $15
Dividend Yield at $15 Total Cost = 11.46%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified (pass through entity)
Last Ex Dividend: 4/2/20 (all shares purchased prior thereto)
Maximum All Accounts: 150 shares
B. Added 50 BRGPRA at $24.65; 10 at $22.78; 10 at $20.5; 5 at $14.5; 5 at $16; 5 at $17.05; 1 at $14.89:
Issuer: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG)- An Apartment REIT
BRG 2019 Annual Report (mortgages on apartments listed at pages F-38 and F-39; information on revolving credit facility at pages F-36 and F-37; cash on hand at $50.768M with $19.085 restricted, at page F-6)
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 7 and ends at page 49)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/24/20 (all but 6 shares purchased prior thereto)
Average Cost Per Share (86 shares) = $22.3
Dividend Yield at $22.39 = 9.25%
Highest Cost Lot: 50 shares bought at $24.65 (3/9/20). Will be sold when and if I can do so profitably
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 8.25%
Dividends: Quarterly, Cumulative and Non-Qualified
Capital Structure Placement: Junior to all bond and senior only to common stock
Optional Redemption Date: On or after 10/21/20
Dividend Stopper Clause: Yes (company would have to eliminate the cash common dividend paid to common shareholders before deferring the preferred stock dividend)
Apartment REIT common and preferred stocks have been in a dive mode due to concerns about renters being unable to make their monthly payments.
Many households can not go without a paycheck for a month without suffering a financial meltdown and an inability to pay bills.
Apartment REITs now have more risk than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Those risks have resulted in much lower prices for their common and preferred stocks. It remains to be seen whether those risks will materialize in the manner predicted by the current share prices.
Last Sells:
Item # 6.A. Sold BRGPRA at $26.58 (10/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $93.28)
Item # 4 Sold 50 BRGPRA at $26.26 (10/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$139.64)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. The highest cost will be sold when and if it becomes profitable to do so.
Maximum Position This Account: 100 shares
I have up 14 shares left, likely to be bought in 1 or 2 share lots.
Maximum Position All Accounts: 200 shares
C. Bought 10 GOODM at $20; 5 at 19:
This one is lightly traded with large/bid ask spreads. I just place a limit order and see what happens.
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7% paid on $25 par value
Annual Rate: $1.75 per share
Dividend: Paid Monthly and Cumulative
Optional Issuer Redemption: At par on or after 5/25/21
Change of Control Provision: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes (page S-17)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/19/20
Average Cost Per share: $19.67
Average Cost Per share: $19.67
Dividend Yield at $19.67 = 8.9%
Prior GOOD Preferred Stock Purchases: None
Last Common Stock Discussion: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post) I will be discussing, probably in the next post, some recent purchases.
Common Stock Close 4/3: GOOD $12.33 -$0.43 -3.37%
Recent GOOD COVID-19 Press Release: Gladstone Commercial Corporation Provides Corporate (3/24/20)
Common Stock Close 4/3: GOOD $12.33 -$0.43 -3.37%
Recent GOOD COVID-19 Press Release: Gladstone Commercial Corporation Provides Corporate (3/24/20)
2. Closed End Bond Fund:
A. Bought 200 PPT at $5.15; 50 at $4.88; 50 at $4.75; 50 at $4.56; 20 at $4.32; 10 at $4.1; 10 at $3.9; 10 at $4.02; :
This fund probably has more moving parts and the most complex structure than any CEF that I have owned in the past. By "structure", I am referring to the use of interest rate swaps, total return swaps, and credit default contracts.
Sponsor's Website: Putnam Premier Income Trust
SEC Filings
Current Position: 403+ shares
Dividend: Monthly at $.035 or $.42 annually (supported by ROC)
Average Cost Per Share: $4.86
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 8.64%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/23/20
Current Position: 403+ shares
Dividend: Monthly at $.035 or $.42 annually (supported by ROC)
Average Cost Per Share: $4.86
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 8.64%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/23/20
Credit Quality Weightings (an odd mixture of Junk and AAA):
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 7/31/19)
Data Date of 200 Share Trade (3/6/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.34
Closing Market Price: $5.2
Discount: -2.62%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/9/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.18
Closing Market Price: $4.92
Discount: -5.02%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/10/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.17
Closing Market Price: $4.79
Discount: -7.35%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/11/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.13
Closing Market Price: $4.59
Discount: -10.53%
Data Date of 3/18/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.67
Closing Market Price: $3.82
Discount: -18.2%
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $4.46
Closing Market Price: $4.02
Discount: -9.87%
Average Discounts as of 4/3/20:
1 Year -2.51%
3 Year -4.72%
5 Year -6.77%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/9/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.18
Closing Market Price: $4.92
Discount: -5.02%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/10/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.17
Closing Market Price: $4.79
Discount: -7.35%
Data Date of 50 Share Trade (3/11/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.13
Closing Market Price: $4.59
Discount: -10.53%
Data Date of 3/18/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $4.67
Closing Market Price: $3.82
Discount: -18.2%
Data Date of 4/3/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $4.46
Closing Market Price: $4.02
Discount: -9.87%
Average Discounts as of 4/3/20:
1 Year -2.51%
3 Year -4.72%
5 Year -6.77%
Sourced: PPT Putnam Premier Income CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Maximum Position: 1000 shares
When and if the highest cost lot can be sold profitably based on my original cost (before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis), I will do so.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend
3. Canadian REITS:
A. Added 50 NWHUF at $8.3; 50 at $8; 50 at $6.75 and 50 at $5.57:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: NWHUF (U.S. Grey Market)
CAD Priced Shares: NWH-UN.TO
Website: NorthWest Healthcare Properties
Property Map
Investor Presentation November 2019
Dividend: Monthly at C$.06667 per unit or C$.8 annually.
Yield: The yield for NWHUF will depend on several factors: (1) the penny rate in CADs; (2) the conversion rate into USDs for each payment; and (3) the amount of the Canadian withholding tax that can be recovered through a foreign tax credit.
Covid-19 Update: NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Comments on COVID-19 Impact, Implementation of NCIB and $380 Million of Liquidity ("As at March 18, 2020 we are not aware of any known cases at our facilities and we continue to work with our operating partners to take appropriate cautionary measures.")
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Bought 100 NWHUF at $9.09 (12/18/2019 Post)(discussed 2019 third quarter earnings report in that post); Item # 1.B. Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$9.67 (/20/19 Post); Item #1.A Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$10.58 -C$1 IB Commission (3/12/18 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1. A. Sold 1000 at C$10.68 (/7/31/17)(profit after CAD to USD conversion = US$606.31); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 NWHUF at US$8.79 (8/21/17 Post)
Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces Increase to Previously Announced Equity Financing from $225 Million to $250 Million (12/11/2019)("due to strong demand, it has increased the size of the previously announced public offering to 18,450,000 trust units (“Units”) at a price of $12.20 per Unit (the “Offering Price”) for gross proceeds of approximately $225.1 million (the “Public Offering”)
Last Earnings Report (12/31/2019):
"AFFO per unit increased by 3.7% to $0.84 in 2019 ($0.92 per unit on a normalized basis) as a result of accretive strategic acquisitions, increased management fees and SPNOI growth;
AFFO payout ratio of 95% (87% normalized) based on the REIT's $0.80 per unit annual distribution;
"Strong portfolio occupancy of 97.3% rising 60 bps from Q4 2018 and the international portfolio holding stable above 98.3% occupancy";
Net asset value per unit increased by 7.0% to $13.17 primarily driven by portfolio valuation gains and the expansion of the asset management platform.
Consolidated leverage of 49.6% (including convertible debentures) is down 600 bp YOY and proforma full deployment of proceeds of the December equity offering and planned asset dispositions into the REIT's capital platforms is expected to fall by a further 720 bps to approximately 42.4%" (emphasis added)
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results
Maximum Position: 1000 Units (both USD and CAD priced)
Current Position: 900 units (600 NWH.UN:CA and 300 USD price NWHUF
B. Restarted DIR.UN:CA-Bought 100 Units at C$8.83 (C$1 commission):
Quotes:
CAD Priced DIR-UN.TO
USD Priced DREUF (Grey Market)
Website: Dream Industrial REIT
2019 Annual Report.pdf (120 pages)
Property Portfolio: Portfolio-Dream Industrial REIT ("owns and operates a portfolio of 209 geographically diversified industrial properties comprising approximately 21.9 million square feet of gross leasable area, in key markets across North America. . . 29 properties, comprising 7.3 million square feet, are located in the U.S.")
Last Round Trip: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 DIR.UN:CA at $11.92 (4/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$215)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05833 per share (annually at C$.7)
DREAM INDUSTRIAL REIT ANNOUNCES MARCH 2020 MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION & PROVIDES BUSINESS UPDATE
Dividend Yield: 7.93% (at C$.7 annual and C$8.83 cost)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/31/19):
The company calculated its net asset value per share at C$11.76 as of 12/31/2019.
European Expansion in the Netherlands and Germany:
(see also, Dream Industrial REIT Announces European Expansion in Germany and the Netherlands, Strategy to Reduce Cost of Debt (1/22/2020)
Capital Highlights:
Sourced: Dream Industrial REIT Reports 2019 Financial Results and Progress on European Expansion Strategy
Last Public Unit Offerings: Dream Industrial REIT Announces $200 Million Public Equity (2/3/20 Press Release)(at C13.65 per share); Dream Industrial REIT Completes $173 Million Equity Offering (12/11/2019 Press Release)(at C$13.45 per share)
The amounts shown in the public offering announcements do not include the greenshoe option granted to the underwriters. The February 2020 offering resulted in C$230 in gross proceeds. Dream Industrial REIT Completes $230 Million Equity Offering (2/12/20 Press Release)
4. Small Ball:
A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87; 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6 and 5 at $14; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at 11; 1 at $10.1; 4 at 11.48; 2 at $10.8:
Maximum Position: 1000 shares
When and if the highest cost lot can be sold profitably based on my original cost (before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis), I will do so.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Goal: Total Return in excess of the dividend
3. Canadian REITS:
A. Added 50 NWHUF at $8.3; 50 at $8; 50 at $6.75 and 50 at $5.57:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: NWHUF (U.S. Grey Market)
CAD Priced Shares: NWH-UN.TO
Website: NorthWest Healthcare Properties
Property Map
Investor Presentation November 2019
Yield: The yield for NWHUF will depend on several factors: (1) the penny rate in CADs; (2) the conversion rate into USDs for each payment; and (3) the amount of the Canadian withholding tax that can be recovered through a foreign tax credit.
Covid-19 Update: NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Comments on COVID-19 Impact, Implementation of NCIB and $380 Million of Liquidity ("As at March 18, 2020 we are not aware of any known cases at our facilities and we continue to work with our operating partners to take appropriate cautionary measures.")
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Bought 100 NWHUF at $9.09 (12/18/2019 Post)(discussed 2019 third quarter earnings report in that post); Item # 1.B. Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$9.67 (/20/19 Post); Item #1.A Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$10.58 -C$1 IB Commission (3/12/18 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1. A. Sold 1000 at C$10.68 (/7/31/17)(profit after CAD to USD conversion = US$606.31); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 NWHUF at US$8.79 (8/21/17 Post)
Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces Increase to Previously Announced Equity Financing from $225 Million to $250 Million (12/11/2019)("due to strong demand, it has increased the size of the previously announced public offering to 18,450,000 trust units (“Units”) at a price of $12.20 per Unit (the “Offering Price”) for gross proceeds of approximately $225.1 million (the “Public Offering”)
Last Earnings Report (12/31/2019):
AFFO payout ratio of 95% (87% normalized) based on the REIT's $0.80 per unit annual distribution;
"Strong portfolio occupancy of 97.3% rising 60 bps from Q4 2018 and the international portfolio holding stable above 98.3% occupancy";
Net asset value per unit increased by 7.0% to $13.17 primarily driven by portfolio valuation gains and the expansion of the asset management platform.
Consolidated leverage of 49.6% (including convertible debentures) is down 600 bp YOY and proforma full deployment of proceeds of the December equity offering and planned asset dispositions into the REIT's capital platforms is expected to fall by a further 720 bps to approximately 42.4%" (emphasis added)
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results
Maximum Position: 1000 Units (both USD and CAD priced)
Current Position: 900 units (600 NWH.UN:CA and 300 USD price NWHUF
Quotes:
CAD Priced DIR-UN.TO
USD Priced DREUF (Grey Market)
Website: Dream Industrial REIT
2019 Annual Report.pdf (120 pages)
Property Portfolio: Portfolio-Dream Industrial REIT ("owns and operates a portfolio of 209 geographically diversified industrial properties comprising approximately 21.9 million square feet of gross leasable area, in key markets across North America. . . 29 properties, comprising 7.3 million square feet, are located in the U.S.")
Last Round Trip: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 DIR.UN:CA at $11.92 (4/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$215)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05833 per share (annually at C$.7)
DREAM INDUSTRIAL REIT ANNOUNCES MARCH 2020 MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION & PROVIDES BUSINESS UPDATE
Dividend Yield: 7.93% (at C$.7 annual and C$8.83 cost)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E. 12/31/19):
European Expansion in the Netherlands and Germany:
Capital Highlights:
Last Public Unit Offerings: Dream Industrial REIT Announces $200 Million Public Equity (2/3/20 Press Release)(at C13.65 per share); Dream Industrial REIT Completes $173 Million Equity Offering (12/11/2019 Press Release)(at C$13.45 per share)
The amounts shown in the public offering announcements do not include the greenshoe option granted to the underwriters. The February 2020 offering resulted in C$230 in gross proceeds. Dream Industrial REIT Completes $230 Million Equity Offering (2/12/20 Press Release)
4. Small Ball:
A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87; 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6 and 5 at $14; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at 11; 1 at $10.1; 4 at 11.48; 2 at $10.8:
I discuss purchases of the preferred stock in Item # 1.A. above.
I did not realize that entered two separate 5 share orders at $13.5 (3/12/20).
Quote: Global Net Lease (GNL)
Website: Global Net Lease
SEC Filings
Property Type Diversification | GNL
Management: External
Global Net Lease Comments On COVID-19 (3/18/20)
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 9 and ends at page 31)("As of December 31, 2019, we owned 278 properties consisting of 31.6 million rentable square feet, which were 99.6% leased with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 8.3 years. Based on the percentage of annualized rental income on a straight-line basis as of December 31, 2019, 63.2% of our properties are located in the U.S., Puerto Rico and Canada and 37% are located in Europe.") The properties are subject to net leases.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.E. Sold 10 GNL at $21.51 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Added 30 GNL at $19.31 and 10 at $18.84 (10/19/19 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 10 GNL at $17.28 (1/20/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share or $1.6 per share, cut from an annual rate of $2.13 per share. Global Net Lease Announces Dividend Change The reason given was "limited visibility on the long-term impact of the COVID-19 virus."
The dividend needed to be cut before the pandemic since it was not being covered by cash flow, as I have noted in the past and point out once again when discussing the last earnings report below. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the company the cover to do what needed to be done. I do not view it as a negative but a correction of a clearly excessive penny rate.
Current Position: 112 + shares
Average Cost: $ 16.29 per share
Dividend Yield at Average Cost = 9.82 % (at new penny rate)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 4/9/19
 |
| Dividend Yield Based on $11 Closing Price 4/3 |
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain: 20 shares at $18.97 (excluding shares purchased with dividends) This lot will be sold when and if I can do so profitably using my original cost per share.
5 Year Chart:
"AFFO per diluted share was $0.44, a decrease from $0.50 per diluted share in fourth quarter 2018 due to the absence of full period rent from acquisitions that closed late in the quarter and changes to European tax policies that increased income tax expenses by $2.0 million from prior year" Cash flow per share was significantly lower the dividend penny rate prior to the slash noted above.
99.6% leased with a remaining weighted-average lease term of 8.3 year
93.2% of the portfolio contains contractual rent increases based on square footage
49% Office, 46% Industrial / Distribution and 5% Retail (based on an annualized straight-line rent)
68.2% of portfolio annualized straight-line rent derived from investment grade and implied investment grade rated tenants"
Sourced: Global Net Lease Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2019 Results
B. Added 5 FNB at $8.8; 5 at $8.43; 5 at $7.62; 5 at $6.6 :
Quote: F.N.B. Corp.
SEC Filings
FNB | F.N.B. Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussion: Item 1.E. Added 10 FNB at $11.08; 5 at $10.49; 10 at $10; and 5 at $9.69 (3/7/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C Sold 31 FNB at $12.17 and Item # 2.D Sold 100 FNB at $12.17 (11/2/19 Post); Item # 5.A Sold 20 FNB at $11.42 (9/28/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 30 FNB at $11.95-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 FNB at $13.65-Used Commission Free Trade (9/5/18 Post); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade (6/18/18 Post); Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59 (3/5/2018);Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)
FNB 5 Year Chart: Bear Market
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12
Average Cost Per Share = $11.10
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 4.32%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): SEC Filed News Release
I discussed this report in Item # 1.E.
Quote: Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC)
Closing Price 4/3/2020: ARCC $9.13 -$0.52 -5.39%
The stock exceeded that $9.13 closing price- on a non-temporary basis -late in 2009. The lows for the Near Depression period were in the $4-$5 range. A new 52 week low was set intraday at $7.9 on 3/16/20. The 52 week high was at $19.33 hit on 2/12/20.
In my opinion, the closing price reflects a current Stock Jock consensus opinion that ARCC will cut its dividend roughly in half due to a 50% or so obliteration in its net assets.
The last reported net asset value per share was $17.32.
The stock was selling at a premium to that net asset value in February 2020. ARCC Historical Prices
The issue as always is whether the future prediction embedded in the current stock price will be right or close to being so or will it turn out to be ridiculously too pessimistic, or even optimistic or somewhere in between.
Who knows? The forecast embedded in the current price is consistent with the dire future scenario outlined above, but is too pessimistic based on a robust V shape recovery starting in the third quarter.
I am only confident in predicting that net asset value per share will take a hit and will not be increasing this year compared to the $17.32 number as of 12/31/19.
A reasonable prediction is that net income investment income will not cover a $.4 per share dividend paid in the current quarter. I would expect some borrowers to be unable, at least temporarily, to make interest payments. That does not mean that ARCC will cut the next dividend.
Place you bet on a future forecast and take your chances, or keep the money in your pocket.
Website: ARCC-Home
S & P Credit Rating: On 3/24/20, S & P affirmed the BBB- credit rating for ARCC's senior unsecured notes but changed its outlook from positive to stable. The outlook change reflects that a credit upgrade is unlikely. S & P noted that it expected COVID-19 to cause increased credit losses and calls for more funds under existing loan commitments. The stable outlook and affirmation of the BBB- rating reflects S & P's opinion that ARCC has a "very strong capital position" and a "favorable funding profile".
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 49)(investment list starts at page F-6)
Using the small ball trading system, I had been prevented from buying more ARCC since the price was higher than my lowest cost lot in the current chain. That lot had been bought at $14.86 on 12/21/18. Item # 4.B. Bought 10 ARCC at $14.86-Used Commission Free Trade (1/2/19 Post)
The recent slide below that price triggered a discretionary "small ball buying program" that is ongoing.
The next purchase, if any, has to be below $9.4.
Highest cost lot in current chain: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 ARCC at $15.39- Used Commission Free Trade (3/25/18 Post) This lot will likely be sold when and if the price exceeds $16, the flip side of averaging down in small lots.
Average Cost Per Share: $12.83
5 Year Chart:
ARCC-Dividends
Dividend Yield at $12.83 (regular dividend only) = 12.47%
The company paid 4 two cent special dividends last year. I am not expecting any this year.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/13/20
Net Asset Value Per Share History: Better than Most, if not all, Externally Managed BDCs
12/31/19: $17.32 10-K
9/30/19: $17.26 10-Q 9/30/18: $17.16
12/21/17: $16.65
9/30/17: $16.49 10-Q
6/30/17: $16.54 10-Q
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
5 Year Financial Data: 2019 Annual Report at page 58
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/3/2019):
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
Last Senior Unsecured Note Offering (1/20): Prospectus $750M 3.25% Maturing in 2025
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
5 Year Financial Data: 2019 Annual Report at page 58
Last Senior Unsecured Note Offering (1/20): Prospectus $750M 3.25% Maturing in 2025
Item # 1.C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98 (6/18/18 Post);
Item 2.A. Eliminated ARCC-Sold Remaining 50 Shares at $17.25 (2/15/17 Post);
Item # 1, Sold 102+ ARCC at $15.32 and 50 at $15.26: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 8/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Sold 100 ARCC at $17.195 (4/28/15 Post);
Item # 3 Sold 100 ARCC Roth IRA at $17.05 (2/25/15 Post); Sold 100 ARCC at $17.54-IRAs in Two 50 Share Lots (9/13/12 Post)
Other Buy Discussions: While a $14.86 buy price is not my lowest purchase price, it is lower than all but one of my prior purchases.
Item # 1 Bought 50 ARCC at $14: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 7/9/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha;
Bought 50 ARCC at $15.41-A Typical Small Lot Purchase Of An Externally Managed BDC Stock - South Gent | Seeking Alpha;
Item # 4 Added 50 ARCC at $16.9-Regular IRA (5/21/11 Post)
Item # 3 Bought 50 ARCC at $16.89 (12/3/2010 Post)
Realized Gains to Date: $525.41
Goal: Total return in excess of the dividend payments.
I view ARES as the best of breed among externally managed BDCs.
On 4/1/20, Janney cut its fair value estimate to $12 from $17.
On 4/2/20, Compass Point cut its price target to $13 from $18.5 but raised its rating to buy.
Generally, analysts will tell you that your house is burning after the entire structure is engulfed in flames. That is at least understandable in that describing the current reality is far easier than predicting the future, even when the time period is 30 days forward starting in mid-February 2020, which is the case with all of the analyst downgrades now.
D. Added 5 CIO at $6.8:
Quote: City Office REIT Inc.
Current Position: 30 Shares
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15, recently slashed ($.6 annually)
The coronavirus pandemic gave the company cover for slashing its common share dividend which was way too high and was never entirely supported by FAD.
Average Cost Per Share: $7.17
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 8.37%
I discussed this REIT in my last post. Item # 3.A. Restarted CIO-Bought 10 at $7.3; 5 at $7 (3/28/20 Post) I have nothing to add to that prior discussion.
E. Restarted DES-Bought 5 at $21.13 ; 5 at $20.3; 5 at $17.2; 5 at $15.6:
Chart:
Buy Discussions: Item # 5.B. Added 5 DES at $26.26; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.2 and 5 at $23.4 (1/2/19 Post)
Sponsor's Website: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes starting with the next payment
For at least 60 days, I will not be buying more shares unless the price falls below $12.
F. Restarted NMFC -Bought 10 at $11.45; 10 at $11.15; 10 at $9.85; 5 at $8.3; 2 at $7.36; 3 at $5.96; 1 at $5.94; 2 at $4.95 :
I am very gradually working my way up to a 100 share position and now stand at 43+ shares. So far, as with most purchases during the market's most recent meltdown, I would have been better off doing nothing.
Time will tell whether the current buying spree is smart or stupid when judged with 20/20 hindsight.
I am 100% certain that I am buying shares at the lowest prices that I have ever paid for this BDC.
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC)
Closing Price 4/3/20: NMFC $5.06 -$0.58 -10.28%
Subsequent to these purchases, Fitch placed its BBB- for NMFC's senior unsecured debt on negative credit watch. The reasons are discussed in this Fitch press release: Fitch Places New Mountain Finance Corp's 'BBB-' Ratings on Negative Watch on Elevated Valuation Risk
The current price has imbedded in it a future forecast that NMFC will suffer about a 60% to 65% decline in net asset value per share and will be forced to slash its dividend. The percentage asset destruction assumes that NMFC will continue to sell, as it has in the past, within 10% of its net asset value per share with temporary movements outside of that range.
E.G. $5 stock price:
high NAV at $5.25/low NAV at $4.75 (5% variance)
Last Reported NAV at $13.26 per share
% decline to $4.75 = 64% decline in net assets
Management: External
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 21 and ends at page 47) Lists of investments with basic descriptions can be found starting at page 95)
5 Year Chart:
On 4/1, Janney cut its fair value to $8 from $14.5. I do not have access to that brokerage firm's report. The analyst did slash on the same day fair value estimates for other BDCs. The price closed at $5.96 on 4/1 /20 and at $14.44 on 2/13/20. NMFC Historical Prices
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
12/31/19 = $13.26
6/30/19: $13.41 10/Q at page 4
12/31/18: $13.22
6/30/18: $13.57
3/31/18: $13.60 10-Q at page 3
12/31/17: $13.63
12/31/16 $13.46
9/30/15 $13.73
12/31/14 $13.83
9/30/14 $14.33
12/31/13 $14.38
6/30/13 $14.32
12/31/12 $14.06 Sourced from 10-Qs
IPO Price: $13.75 Prospectus (filed 5/23/11)
5 Year Financial Data (page 52 Annual Report)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $9.66
Dividend Yield = 14.08% (assumes no dividend cut which is definitely not the market's current forecast)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/20 (shortly after first two 10 share purchases and after other listed purchases)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Last Elimination: Item # 2 Eliminated NMFC-Sold 102+ at $14.2 (1/25/20 Post)
Last Substantive Sell Discussion: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 NMFC at $13.95 (1/15/20 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 100 NMFC at $13.37 (9/18/19 Post)(shares were previously sold)
NMFC Trading Profits to Date: +$229.57
5 Year Annual Average Total Return Through 4/3/20: -10.58%
DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
Considering what has happened to the share price since February, that annual average total return number is not surprising. The five year total return was -42.81%.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): I thought this report was okay. It will be last okay report for awhile.
Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release
Recent Stock Offering: "On July 11, 2019, the Company completed a public offering of 6,900,000 shares of the Company’s common stock at a public offering price of $13.68 per share. The Company’s Investment Adviser paid a $0.39 per share portion of the $0.42 per share underwriters' sales load such that the Company received net proceeds of $13.65 per share in this offering. All payments made by the Company’s Investment Adviser are not subject to reimbursement by the Company. The Company received total net proceeds of approximately $94.2 million in connection with this offering."
Current Position: 43 shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividend
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $4.95)
Goal: Return in excess of the dividend payments (not likely anytime soon) I may end up with a net profit on the shares after selling some lots at losses which counts as a successful exit.
G. Restarted Small Ball "Buying Program" in JTD-Bought 20 at $11.38; 10 at $11 and 10 at $9.79:
Quote: Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund Overview
SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund (period ending 12/31/19; Total investment cost: $280.028+M; Value as of 12/31/19= $374.486+M; Borrowings at $111.1M)
Cost of Borrowings: "Interest is charged on these Borrowings at 1-Month LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) plus 0.65% per annum on the amount borrowed. The Fund is typically charged an undrawn fee of 0.50% per annum if the undrawn portion of the Borrowings on that day is more than 20% of the maximum commitment amount, however these fees were waived in 2019. During the current fiscal period, the average daily balance outstanding (which was for the entire current reporting period) and average annual interest rate on these Borrowings were $104,590,411 and 2.87%, respectively." Page 42. This cost has already fallen since 12/31/19 and will fall further.
Dividends: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)
May be cut due to market decline
Dividend Yield at $11.38: 10.9%
Data Date of Trade (3/13/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.47
Closing Market Price: $11.81 (late day rally after purchase)
Discount: -12.32%
Data Date of Trade (3/16/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.62
Closing Market Price: $10.5
Discount: -9.64
Data Date of Trade (3/17/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.19
Closing Market Price: $10.76
Discount: -11.73%
1 Year Average Discount as of 3/13 = -3%
Sourced: JTD Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund-CEF Connect
H. Restarted BIF-Bought 10 at $9.26; 10 at $8.75:
Quote: Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (BIF)
Sponsor's Website: Boulder Funds - Home
As previously discussed, this stock CEF is weighted heavily in Berkshire Hathaway stock:
The fund owns both BRK/A and BRK/B:
Sourced: SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 11/30/19)
Both positions have large unrealized gains. As of 11/30/19, the portfolio's value was $1.392+B with a cost basis of $589.7+M.
BIF SEC Filings
Dividends: Quarterly at $.102 per share (.408 annually)
Average Cost per share (20 shares) = $9.01
Dividend Yield at $9.01: 4.53%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 4/22/20
According to CEFConnect, the recent quarterly payments gave been supported by ROC. The fund could support the dividend easily by harvesting capital gains but tends to refrain from doing so. It would not be a reasonable prediction IMO to forecast any meaningful capital gain distribution given the buy and hold approach.
Data Date of 3/30/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.02
Closing Market Price: $9.28
Discount: -15.79%
Data Date of 4/1/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $10.54
Closing Market Price: $8.72
Discount: -17.27%
Sourced: BIF Boulder Growth & Income-CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 3.E. Eliminated BIF-Sold 156+ at $11.42 (12/18/19 Post)
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 3.C. Sold 50 BIF at $11.28 (11/13/19 Post); Item # 3.B. Eliminated BIF: Sold 116+ (2/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $137.25, with snapshots of prior 2013 and 2016 round-trips realizing a $284.19 profit).
BIF Trading Profits to Date: $413.12
Current Position: 15 shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
I. Started FCNTX-Bought $100 at $11.46; and $50 at $11.28:
There are no minimums for Fidelity customers.
Quote: FCNTX | Fidelity Contrafund Overview
Morningstar Page: Currently rated 4 stars.
Sponsor's Website: FCNTX - Fidelity ® Contrafund ®
J. Started FSPTX-Bought $100 at $16.94:
There are not minimums for Fidelity customers.
Quote: FSPTX | Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio Overview
Morningstar Page: Currently rated 4 stars
Sponsor's Website: FSPTX - Fidelity ® Select Technology Portfolio
K. Added $50 to FZROX-Bought at $8.57:
Quote: FZROX | Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund Overview
This mutual fund attempts to track the total U.S. stock market.
It has a zero expense ratio.
I believe it is closed to new investors.
Sponsor's webpage: FZROX - Fidelity ZERO SM Total Market Index Fund
Morningstar Page
A similar low cost ETF is the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) which has a .03% expense ratio.
5. Short Term Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to Money Market Funds:
A. Bought 2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/23/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.8
YTM at TC = 3.63%
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
I now own 4 bonds. The other 2 were bought in November 2018 at 99.269. Item # 2.B. Bought 2 JPM 2.75% SU in a Roth IRA account (11/28/18 Post)
This purchase is being discussed out of time sequence. I wanted to highlight the ongoing problem of reinvesting cash flow.
This JPM bond was purchased on 4/1/20 in my Fidelity taxable account.
I received the following bond redemption proceeds and interest payments in that account on 4/1:
I attempted to reinvest the $4K in redemption proceeds by placing several limit orders which I can do at Fidelity but not at my other brokers. I am only willing to pay so much so I am not hitting the best ask numbers for the number of bonds that I want to buy.
This is what the order book for this bond looked shortly after I received the fill:
If I wanted to hit the best ask price, I would have had to pay 100.095 but the commission would drive the total cost number to 100.195. The YTM at that total cost number would be close to 1.25% which I would be unwilling to accept. So I receive at a fill at my price or none at all.
B. Bought 5 Wisconsin Electric 2.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/20:
I now own 7 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: The issuer's new name is the WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC)
WEC | WEC Energy Group Inc. Analyst Estimates
WEC Energy Group posts strong 2019 results
Credit Quality:
Bought at Total Cost of 99.796
YTM at 99.796 = 3.33%
C. Bought 1 Citigroup 2.65% SU Maturing on 10/26/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.909
YTM at TC = 4.227%
Issuer: Citigroup Inc. (C)
C | Citigroup Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Credit Ratings:
2019 Annual Report
D. Bought 2 BB&T 2.625% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/29/20:
I now own 4 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.822
YTM at TC = 3.292%
BB & T is a super regional bank. The company recently changed its name and stock symbol to Truist Financial Corp. (TFC).
TFC | Truist Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The current stock price reflects a disregard for those estimates.
I eliminated my common stock and discussed the dispositions in these posts: Item # 1. A. Sold 71+ BBT at $50.72 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,330.82); Item # 1. A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $55.45 (2/8/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,061.02); Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $47.24 (3/28/17 Post)(profit snapshot $568.45).
I have just restarted a small ball purchase program with 1 and 2 lot purchases. With 3 shares purchased yesterday, I am up to 7 shares.
Common Stock Close 4/3: TFC $27.21 -$1.27 -4.46%: Truist Financial Corporation
D. Bought 2 Fortune Brands Home and Security 3% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail Prospectus linked
Issuer: Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc. (FBHS)
FBHS Analyst Estimates
Fortune Brands Reports Strong Sales and EPS Growth in Q4 and Full Year 2019; Provides 2020 Annual Outlook for Continued Growth
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+ (see confirmation above)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.834
YTM at TC = 3.722%
The total cost number includes a $1 per bond commission. Unlike Fidelity, Vanguard will not include the commission in the reported price. However, the YTM number shown above is based on the price paid 99.734 plus the $1 per bond commission. The YTM based on the price only was 4.173% according to FINRA.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Time will tell whether the current buying spree is smart or stupid when judged with 20/20 hindsight.
I am 100% certain that I am buying shares at the lowest prices that I have ever paid for this BDC.
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC)
Closing Price 4/3/20: NMFC $5.06 -$0.58 -10.28%
Subsequent to these purchases, Fitch placed its BBB- for NMFC's senior unsecured debt on negative credit watch. The reasons are discussed in this Fitch press release: Fitch Places New Mountain Finance Corp's 'BBB-' Ratings on Negative Watch on Elevated Valuation Risk
The current price has imbedded in it a future forecast that NMFC will suffer about a 60% to 65% decline in net asset value per share and will be forced to slash its dividend. The percentage asset destruction assumes that NMFC will continue to sell, as it has in the past, within 10% of its net asset value per share with temporary movements outside of that range.
E.G. $5 stock price:
high NAV at $5.25/low NAV at $4.75 (5% variance)
Last Reported NAV at $13.26 per share
% decline to $4.75 = 64% decline in net assets
Management: External
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 21 and ends at page 47) Lists of investments with basic descriptions can be found starting at page 95)
5 Year Chart:
On 4/1, Janney cut its fair value to $8 from $14.5. I do not have access to that brokerage firm's report. The analyst did slash on the same day fair value estimates for other BDCs. The price closed at $5.96 on 4/1 /20 and at $14.44 on 2/13/20. NMFC Historical Prices
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
12/31/19 = $13.26
6/30/19: $13.41 10/Q at page 4
12/31/18: $13.22
6/30/18: $13.57
3/31/18: $13.60 10-Q at page 3
12/31/17: $13.63
12/31/16 $13.46
9/30/15 $13.73
12/31/14 $13.83
9/30/14 $14.33
12/31/13 $14.38
6/30/13 $14.32
12/31/12 $14.06 Sourced from 10-Qs
IPO Price: $13.75 Prospectus (filed 5/23/11)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $9.66
Dividend Yield = 14.08% (assumes no dividend cut which is definitely not the market's current forecast)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/12/20 (shortly after first two 10 share purchases and after other listed purchases)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Last Elimination: Item # 2 Eliminated NMFC-Sold 102+ at $14.2 (1/25/20 Post)
Last Substantive Sell Discussion: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 NMFC at $13.95 (1/15/20 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 100 NMFC at $13.37 (9/18/19 Post)(shares were previously sold)
NMFC Trading Profits to Date: +$229.57
5 Year Annual Average Total Return Through 4/3/20: -10.58%
DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
Considering what has happened to the share price since February, that annual average total return number is not surprising. The five year total return was -42.81%.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/19): I thought this report was okay. It will be last okay report for awhile.
Recent Stock Offering: "On July 11, 2019, the Company completed a public offering of 6,900,000 shares of the Company’s common stock at a public offering price of $13.68 per share. The Company’s Investment Adviser paid a $0.39 per share portion of the $0.42 per share underwriters' sales load such that the Company received net proceeds of $13.65 per share in this offering. All payments made by the Company’s Investment Adviser are not subject to reimbursement by the Company. The Company received total net proceeds of approximately $94.2 million in connection with this offering."
Current Position: 43 shares
Maximum Position: 100 Shares + shares purchased with dividend
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (next purchase has to be below $4.95)
Goal: Return in excess of the dividend payments (not likely anytime soon) I may end up with a net profit on the shares after selling some lots at losses which counts as a successful exit.
SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund (period ending 12/31/19; Total investment cost: $280.028+M; Value as of 12/31/19= $374.486+M; Borrowings at $111.1M)
Cost of Borrowings: "Interest is charged on these Borrowings at 1-Month LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) plus 0.65% per annum on the amount borrowed. The Fund is typically charged an undrawn fee of 0.50% per annum if the undrawn portion of the Borrowings on that day is more than 20% of the maximum commitment amount, however these fees were waived in 2019. During the current fiscal period, the average daily balance outstanding (which was for the entire current reporting period) and average annual interest rate on these Borrowings were $104,590,411 and 2.87%, respectively." Page 42. This cost has already fallen since 12/31/19 and will fall further.
Dividends: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)
May be cut due to market decline
Dividend Yield at $11.38: 10.9%
Data Date of Trade (3/13/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.47
Closing Market Price: $11.81 (late day rally after purchase)
Discount: -12.32%
Data Date of Trade (3/16/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.62
Closing Market Price: $10.5
Discount: -9.64
Data Date of Trade (3/17/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.19
Closing Market Price: $10.76
Discount: -11.73%
1 Year Average Discount as of 3/13 = -3%
Sourced: JTD Nuveen Tax-Advantaged Dividend Growth Fund-CEF Connect
H. Restarted BIF-Bought 10 at $9.26; 10 at $8.75:
Quote: Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (BIF)
Sponsor's Website: Boulder Funds - Home
As previously discussed, this stock CEF is weighted heavily in Berkshire Hathaway stock:
 |
| As of 11/30/19 |
Both positions have large unrealized gains. As of 11/30/19, the portfolio's value was $1.392+B with a cost basis of $589.7+M.
BIF SEC Filings
Dividends: Quarterly at $.102 per share (.408 annually)
Average Cost per share (20 shares) = $9.01
Dividend Yield at $9.01: 4.53%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 4/22/20
According to CEFConnect, the recent quarterly payments gave been supported by ROC. The fund could support the dividend easily by harvesting capital gains but tends to refrain from doing so. It would not be a reasonable prediction IMO to forecast any meaningful capital gain distribution given the buy and hold approach.
Data Date of 3/30/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.02
Closing Market Price: $9.28
Discount: -15.79%
Data Date of 4/1/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $10.54
Closing Market Price: $8.72
Discount: -17.27%
Sourced: BIF Boulder Growth & Income-CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 3.E. Eliminated BIF-Sold 156+ at $11.42 (12/18/19 Post)
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 3.C. Sold 50 BIF at $11.28 (11/13/19 Post); Item # 3.B. Eliminated BIF: Sold 116+ (2/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $137.25, with snapshots of prior 2013 and 2016 round-trips realizing a $284.19 profit).
BIF Trading Profits to Date: $413.12
Current Position: 15 shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
I. Started FCNTX-Bought $100 at $11.46; and $50 at $11.28:
Quote: FCNTX | Fidelity Contrafund Overview
Morningstar Page: Currently rated 4 stars.
Sponsor's Website: FCNTX - Fidelity ® Contrafund ®
J. Started FSPTX-Bought $100 at $16.94:
Quote: FSPTX | Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio Overview
Morningstar Page: Currently rated 4 stars
Sponsor's Website: FSPTX - Fidelity ® Select Technology Portfolio
K. Added $50 to FZROX-Bought at $8.57:
Quote: FZROX | Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund Overview
This mutual fund attempts to track the total U.S. stock market.
It has a zero expense ratio.
I believe it is closed to new investors.
Sponsor's webpage: FZROX - Fidelity ZERO SM Total Market Index Fund
Morningstar Page
A similar low cost ETF is the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) which has a .03% expense ratio.
5. Short Term Corporate Bonds as an Alternative to Money Market Funds:
A. Bought 2 J P Morgan 2.75% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/23/20:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.8
YTM at TC = 3.63%
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
I now own 4 bonds. The other 2 were bought in November 2018 at 99.269. Item # 2.B. Bought 2 JPM 2.75% SU in a Roth IRA account (11/28/18 Post)
This purchase is being discussed out of time sequence. I wanted to highlight the ongoing problem of reinvesting cash flow.
This JPM bond was purchased on 4/1/20 in my Fidelity taxable account.
I received the following bond redemption proceeds and interest payments in that account on 4/1:
I attempted to reinvest the $4K in redemption proceeds by placing several limit orders which I can do at Fidelity but not at my other brokers. I am only willing to pay so much so I am not hitting the best ask numbers for the number of bonds that I want to buy.
This is what the order book for this bond looked shortly after I received the fill:
B. Bought 5 Wisconsin Electric 2.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/20:
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| Price Reflects $1 Per Bond Commission |
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: The issuer's new name is the WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC)
WEC | WEC Energy Group Inc. Analyst Estimates
WEC Energy Group posts strong 2019 results
Credit Quality:
Bought at Total Cost of 99.796
YTM at 99.796 = 3.33%
C. Bought 1 Citigroup 2.65% SU Maturing on 10/26/20:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.909
YTM at TC = 4.227%
Issuer: Citigroup Inc. (C)
C | Citigroup Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Credit Ratings:
D. Bought 2 BB&T 2.625% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/29/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings:
YTM at TC = 3.292%
BB & T is a super regional bank. The company recently changed its name and stock symbol to Truist Financial Corp. (TFC).
TFC | Truist Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The current stock price reflects a disregard for those estimates.
I eliminated my common stock and discussed the dispositions in these posts: Item # 1. A. Sold 71+ BBT at $50.72 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,330.82); Item # 1. A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $55.45 (2/8/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,061.02); Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost 50 BBT Shares at $47.24 (3/28/17 Post)(profit snapshot $568.45).
I have just restarted a small ball purchase program with 1 and 2 lot purchases. With 3 shares purchased yesterday, I am up to 7 shares.
Common Stock Close 4/3: TFC $27.21 -$1.27 -4.46%: Truist Financial Corporation
D. Bought 2 Fortune Brands Home and Security 3% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/20:
Issuer: Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc. (FBHS)
FBHS Analyst Estimates
Fortune Brands Reports Strong Sales and EPS Growth in Q4 and Full Year 2019; Provides 2020 Annual Outlook for Continued Growth
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+ (see confirmation above)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.834
YTM at TC = 3.722%
The total cost number includes a $1 per bond commission. Unlike Fidelity, Vanguard will not include the commission in the reported price. However, the YTM number shown above is based on the price paid 99.734 plus the $1 per bond commission. The YTM based on the price only was 4.173% according to FINRA.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
