Monday, May 4, 2009

National Dentex/Sysco/ More on the VIX model

On a subject unrelated to the main issues in this blog, I wanted to make another statement about Joseph who came to America from Bristol England in 1634, when in his early 20s, and almost lived to 1700.  This would be the line from my mother's father. He had many children, and those children had many children, and so on for 225 years before the Civil War.  Some fought in the French and Indian War,  and others in the American Revolutionary War .  But, as to numbers, his descendants in those wars would pale in comparison to the number of Joseph's direct lineal descendants who fought in the Confederate Army during the Civil War.  No known descendants fought on the Union side.  While the precise number is not known, it would be somewhere over a full regiment.   

RB said, in its best imitation of LB's brain voice, trying to fool LB into thinking that it was doing the talking, a frequent subterfuge, that it had found a new passage in the Good Book on Sunday, previously overlooked, where Jesus said in the Sermon on the Mound: "The Lord saith: Let there be no stinking rules preventing the RB from doing its thing".  

LB wants RB to focus, it does not help the operation here at HQ for RB to be saying just now, "The past will find a way to live in the present", when LB needs to know what to do today.  What's the game plan for the morning, LB does not want to hear anything else but something that will help it in the next hour to further the expansion of the headknocker's capital, the task at hand, so no more philosophy or whatever that is RB has been talking about all morning. Time to get down to business.  

Sysco, a recent purchase, did not have a stellar earnings report this morning.   Yahoo! Finance 
Sales fell 4.5% and operating income declined 3% compared to the year ago quarter.  The earnings were in line but the revenues missed the consensus expectations.  This was one of RB's purchases, bought at less than $20, during its frolic and detour in early March.   LB was underwhelmed by Sysco's report.  The stock has a good dividend at the price paid for it. Buys of CPB LQD SYY XKK/Regressive Taxation-Cap & Trade/

The shares in National Dentex, a lottery ticket,  were bought in two phases, with 50 shares bought at 4 in a taxable account, and the other 50 at a tad over $1 in a retirement, which were subsequently sold on a spike to $4.  NADX reported this morning, a decent report, LB was surprised. Only one analyst had a forecast. Yahoo! Finance Earnings came in at 36 cents versus 30 cents a year ago.  The company reported 41.26 million in sales for the quarter.  As of last Friday's close, the market cap of the company was 26 million.  Some of my discussions on this lottery ticket purchase are in these posts:
Currently I own the 50 shares of NADX bought at 4 and have just raised it status to a long term hold joining CB Richard Ellis in that category of lottery ticket purchases.  Duality of Long Term Risks/Stocks Under $5: Per Se Lottery Tickets/   So when thinking of these purchases, I like using the phrase playing with the house's money.  

I have not updated my discussion on the basic tenets of the VIX Asset Allocation Model since the last revision during the middle of last year when I brought the data up to date primarily to highlight the SDS/SSO Swing Trade. RB just said that LB has to name everything with big capital letters.  LB said that is how he visualizes it, there is order, chaos does not exist.  The main focus has been in developing trading rules during the Unstable Vix Pattern Period which is what we are presently suffering.  Since we are in an unstable pattern, it is not necessary for me to bring the data references up to date.  As far as I am concerned, for my purpose, the model has been predicting accurately for over twenty years. 

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