Friday, May 15, 2009

Life Insurance Companies Now in the TARP Gravy Train/DKR & Underlying Hertz Bond

So Pfizer is giving out free Viagra pills to anyone laid off.  

Another tidbit is that GMAC Bank is going to change its name to Ally Bank.  What took them so long to realize that the words Bank and GMAC were not a marketing home run to consumers now? 

The WSJ and others are reporting that several life insurance companies will be able to receive TARP money, including Hartford and Prudential.  WSJ.com If I understood life insurance accounting, I might be more venturesome in my investments in this area.  I own a short term Prudential senior bond maturing in 2012.  I mentioned in a post from a few weeks ago that it was being priced at around 70 ($100 par) which seemed silly to me. It has risen some since then.  When I can get a 30% discount to par value for a senior bond maturing in 3 years, the amount of the interest payment becomes a secondary consideration almost.  Merrill Lynch Lost over 27 Billion in 2008 & Paid 10 People 209 Million/GE/Prudential Bonds/USPH/Aegon & ING Preferred Meltdowns
The third party price as of this morning for that bond was over $86.   

I also own 250 shares of JZH, a TC with a Prudential long bond as its underlying security. TRUST CERTIFICATE JZH: PRUDENTIAL SENIOR BOND The above link may reference the only purchase discussed in this blog.  I do not mention anywhere near everything that I do. 
The underlying bond information for that TC:FINRA - Investor Information - Market Data - Bonds - Bond Detail
This is a link to that prospectus and to the page at QuantumOnline that has the info:  


Obama said that the U.S. is going to have to ween itself from borrowing from China.  Amen to that.  Though LB being a stick in the mud,  said that we seem to be going in the opposite direction in a big way now and for the foreseeable future.   Reuters            WSJ

I have noticed the rally in the underlying Hertz senior bond contained the TC DKR.   I am content for now to hold my meager 50 shares of DKR with a $6 and change cost until maturity, unless I can capture a good chunk of that $25 with a sell into the market before 2012.  You have to remain flexible.  This is a link again to the FINRA information on the underlying bond.  FINRA - Investor Information - Market Data - Bonds - Bond DetailThis page shows a chart for the bond.  If you are interested in the trades, you can set the time period at the bottom of the page (i will look at a week), then click "Show Results".  DKR has been rallying with the underlying bond, and closed yesterday at $14.1.  Some would say that I made a mistake when I passed up the opportunity to buy the 50 shares back at less than $6 that I had previously sold on a pop to over $14. Hertz Bond Information in One Post

The 15th of the month is a payday in my main account. In 2007, I bought a fair number of short term bonds that paid monthly dividends and they pay on the 15th.  I also see some of the synthetic floaters that I recently bought, which also pay monthly, paid their interest into my account today, along with several of the TCs paying semi-annual interest, including JZV, JZE and JZJ.  I also have several closed end funds that pay monthly dividends, and the payments are scattered throughout the month, with some on the 15th.  Two examples of those funds that paid today are FAX and IGD.  I do not draw any money from these stock accounts.  Everything in those accounts is available for long term, strong hands,  investment.  

Any investor as active as I am have tons and tons of what ifs.   The really big what if was my failure to have more faith in my VIX Asset Allocation Model in 2007, and to sell even more stocks.  I do not classify real time decisions as a mistake looking back with 20/20 vision, looking back at historical decisions is more of a learning experience for me.  I would classify as a mistake a real time decision that did not properly evaluate the data known to me, recognizing that I always have to act based on incomplete information.  It will always be incomplete no matter how hard I look for more. 

I have survived and prospered all of these years in the market by being cautious and conservative, the wild and crazy ones come and go, blowing up eventually.  I personally do not have any debt so I always look askance at a company loaded with it, particularly ones that fail to manage excessive leverage in a prudent and thoughtful manner.    The bottom line on Hertz a few weeks ago, as well as now, is that I do not have a clear picture on whether or not it will survive and that brings out the caution police for a true conservative.

Hertz used to be a subsidiary of Ford, until a private equity firm took it private.  If you want to know how the proceeds of the stock sale were used when the private equity took Hertz public again, that transaction is summarized at p. 6 of this quarterly report filing: http://www.sec.gov

I am glad to see that the Feds have finally realized that the Bank of America Board is not exactly brimming with people experienced in the financial market. WSJ.com If Headknocker had been on the board when Ken brought his General Hood idea about buying Merrill, the answer would be no, just wait for a better opportunity and be patient.  Or, I would have said something like spend at least two weeks with your best people going over the books, working out all kinds of worst case scenarios, hire some really bright people from the outside to look at it, then come back to the Board.   Singapore has unloaded its BAC stake.   Yahoo! Finance

The three month LIBOR rate continue to fall, now reaching a level last seen in 1986. 

Core CPI rose .3% last month.  Consumer Price Index Summary  CPI was unchanged due to falls in energy and food costs.  I am not sure about this index.  As far as I can see, the cost to fill up my car rose about 5% in April.   

Pelosi claims that she did not know about the waterboarding by the Dark Force.USATODAY.com
I am always skeptical of any statement made by any politician.  Pelosi's claim may or may not be true.  The important point is that some Democrats were informed and did not stop it.  Many Democrats were also complicit in W's desire to invade IRAQ, with several prominent Democrat senators voting in favor of the War Resolution.   Iraq Resolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  Almost all of the representatives who voted in favor did not take the time to look at classified information that would have cast doubt on the claims being made by the Dark Forces. Graham: I Never Wavered In My Belief That The War Was Wrong  Although I have not seen that classified document of course, it was made available to any representative who wished to take the time to look at it.  As it turned out, a great deal of information was withheld, but that document would have apparently caused anyone to have second thoughts about supporting W. So, what is my point? Frequently, both political parties are complicit and neither wants to air the dirty laundry before the public.  And, as an independent, I am disgusted by that fact which is one reason I do not owe any allegiance to either tribe.

Some other posts that discuss the false information used to justify the IRAQ information are as follows (as usual those comments are mixed with totally unrelated subjects):

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