Tuesday, May 5, 2009

QuantumOnline/Focus on the Big Picture/Kraft/Will the Future Be Different From the Present or Is that A Stupid Question, or is it?

I have given the QuantumOnline site a coveted place in my bookmark bar. QuantumOnline.com If I had known about that free site, though registration is necessary, it would have saved me days of effort.  I just wanted to recommend again that any serious fixed income investor in the preferred stock area become a member and to use that site as a gateway to secure other information about a security, particularly the prospectuses. QuantumOnline: For Compilation of Data Relating To Preferred Stocks

The WSJ was reporting this morning that 10 of the 19 financial institutions that underwent the stress test will need additional capital. - WSJ.com

LB does not have any rules about putting on a hedge now as a result of the recent market run.  If done this would be a pure by the seat of my pants type of move. Fly by the seat of one's pantsAll of the hedges that have been considered would have retarded the gains to date, and none have been used. But, LB is a cautious sort.  RB just said that  wimp would be a better term.  And then added that if LB put on a hedge now it was going to start howling in the urinal- again. 

Sometimes, it helps just to view something without any inbred biases that can distort its meaning, always try to look at new information with an open mind.  I mentioned last night that I looked at the long term chart for the VIX in 2007, never having viewed it before, and just knowing that it was a volatility index.   

RB told LB again to quite focusing on the small stuff, forget about those stinking lottery tickets or buying more of them, not another word about esoteric tax issues involving REIT cumulative preferred issues, and start focusing on what will actually have an impact on the headknocker's capital position.   

Kraft, a recently added position in my customized version of the ETF KXI at $22.26, beat expectations with a 10% rise in profits Yahoo! Finance 
Revenue declined by 6.5% which included a 7.9% unfavorable impact of currency exchange.  I do not get too excited about gains and losses tied to the movement in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies for U.S. multinationals.  Sometimes, it may be important just to know whether the risk is, or has been, at least partially hedged in a successful manner.  I am more interested in organic sales growth before currency exchange to see how well management is expanding the business.   Organic growth was 2.3%, an okay figure considering the worldwide recession.  I would not use that figure as the benchmark for making a judgment  about future sales growth in non-recessionary years. Kraft reaffirmed its guidance at $1.88.  I discuss KFT in more detail in the post where I made the purchase decision.SOLD NADX IN IRA/BOUGHT Kraft & NESTLE/ Bought Lottery Ticket in CBG at 2.39/ Drags: TALF, AXP and GE

I am forever baffled why so many forecast the present into the indefinite future. 
Won't the future change, or have I drawn the wrong conclusion from the history of mankind?

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