Thursday, May 14, 2009

Distortion of Reality to Serve an Ideology/The Market in Trust Certificates

Reality is frequently distorted to fit an ideology.  I would just highlight a recent example that gained notoriety after Sean Hannity's program showing the Washington Press standing for Obama's first appearance before the press, and then a couple of clips where they remained seated for W. This was shown to prove press bias.  Hannity remarked that he was surprised that the press did not cheer when Obama entered the room, clap their hands, and just let their feelings of support just hang out for all to see.  This is part of Hannity's worldview, the press is biased, and distorts information to pursue a liberal agenda, while it is up to Sean to set things straight.

Sure, there is bias in reporting no matter where you go, but the leading purveyor of bias in news reporting in my view is the fair and balanced network.  

The problem with this particular point made by Sean and his fellow travelers at Newsbusters.org is that it distorts reality, probably on purpose.  Reporters sometimes sit when the President enters the room and sometimes stand.  I have seen many video clips of the press standing when W entered the room.   The WSJ explained that the press will generally stand when the President enters the East Room of the White House.  When the President enters the briefing room, a more informal setting, reporters will generally stay in their seat.  WSJ  

The reporter from Slate explains the difference between a Presidential appearance in the East Room and in the briefing room.  Slate Magazine

I can only add that I have been watching the press stand up and remain seated for every President in my aging memory bank.  But I am not on an ideological mission to distort reality to prove an opinion, so I never tried to make it into something it is not. 

But when you are an ideologue on a mission to prove a point facts no longer matter.  It is just best to bend and distort information to confirm a pre-existing worldview.   All humans do this to a degree, for it is very difficult to stop it, but I would submit that the followers of Sean and Rush routinely do it virtually every minute of everyday.  From my perspective, I view such an approach to information to be hazardous to my financial health.  I can not ignore new information, nor can I just to bend it to suit my opinions.   I have to assimilate and use information to form the opinion, change the opinion when necessary based on newly acquired information that I am open to receiving, as opposed to forming an opinion first and then looking for anything, anywhere, no matter how spurious that confirms that opinion.  

The constant harping on the purported bias of the "liberal", "elite", and "mainstream" media serves an important purpose in my opinion, though it is never stated in so many words.   The intent is to convince millions of Americans to not even seek out information in any non-approved media outlet that would challenge whatever positions the ideologues are trying to further.   That purpose and intent is anti-democratic.  The end result of that process which started in earnest with Spiro Agnew is to convince tens of millions of people that all information from "mainstream" media outlets is unreliable liberal propaganda, so there is no reason to even access it-ever.  I do not view any of that to be consistent with Conservatism but another "ism" altogether. 











Having said all of that, I want to emphasize a point.  I am not a liberal.  I am a Conservative.  From my viewpoint, the Republican Party has abandoned true conservative ideology. People should be encouraged to read the newspapers to help them sort through all facts using their own judgment and addressing each new piece of information with an opened rather than a permanently closed mind, and that process is not helped by those who spend a great deal of time convincing the True Believers to ignore anyone providing information inconsistent with pre-existing opinions.  

In any market dominated by individuals that is thinly traded, there will be price swings that defy any rational explanation.

I started investing in securities that I call Trust Certificates with gusto in October 2008.  I had dabbled in them before that as trades. In October, I noticed something really peculiar. Many of the TCs were being priced to yield 3 to 5% higher than the underlying bonds, and the underlying bonds were being priced as if companies like AT & T and Verizon were in some kind of danger of defaulting.

The institutions were responsible for the panic pricing of investment grade bonds in the 4th quarter, but individual investors took it further in pricing the TCs. This created opportunities that do not come around too often. That kind of opportunity may come around again, possibly due to another cause, so it is best to be prepared to recognize the opportunity when it arises by becoming knowledgeable about this type of security, even though there is no present intent to buy one.  

The swings that I see now in TC pricing are not as pronounced as during the Great Panic period. The disparity in pricing between a TC and the underlying bond has narrowed, and the TC is even priced higher in some cases.  I do not think that this dysfunctional pricing adds risk unless the investor only owns TCs and buys them on margin.  Then, the risk would be some crazy down move in the TC market caused by widespread investor panic in the stock market, a phenomenon that even effected LB one day causing it to act weird.  PJL TRUST CERTIFICATE & The Volatility Indexes VIX and VXN  LB is embarrassed by that last linked post but RB want let it take it down.  

I have seen many instances of irrational pricing in TCs.  An example would the buys of PJS in the 7 and change level or JZE at $12.5.  I just view those type of transactions as gifts from the Lord.   But the nuttiest one that ever happened to me occurred late in the trading day.  I had bought XFL below par value in an IRA, just content to collect the coupon.  I had set an email alert at my broker to notify of a movement above 25.25.

With about ten minutes left in the trading day, the sound goes off in my Entourage email, notifying me that the price target was hit. Okay, let's look at the price. The price was $34, or nine bucks over par value.

Now, as  you would expect, LB did not dither on that one, no deer in the headlight look, just hit that sell button.  I recount that story in an earlier blog to show how irrational this market can become.     Trust Certificates PJL and XFL: Verizon Bond

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