Wednesday, May 6, 2009

BAC Needs 34 Billion?/General Hood and Ken Lewis: Parellels in History

RB opened the Staff Meeting today saying that if the nerd mentions the words Tax or VIX today it will go strike.  LB replied that it is willing to agree to refrain from using those two words for today, and RB would in exchange agree to work the entire day.   Contract #8,098,473 between RB and LB was duly executed and noted in the minutes.  Referring back to the post from yesterday, discussing the Cataclysmic Event in September 2008 shown in the chart This is an Unstable VIX Pattern: Good or Bad for Stocks?, LB noted that this was the first such event since the data became available from the CBOE starting in 1990.  Time was then of the essence.  The meaning was clear.  LB decided to become smaller by selling stocks where the intent previously had been to hold them and where profits still existed in them, even in September 2008.  RB interjected and said it told LB to become invisible rather than just smaller, RB understands volatility being itself a little volatile, besides what is a contract purred RB, sounds like LB is up to more of its legal mumbo jumbo, violating the spirit and not the letter of whatever it was that was "duly executed" earlier.   So, there may be time to do an asset allocation before the "s---" really hits the fan.   LB does not understand why it is the only one discussing these issues, at least publicly. 

The coin toss method of decision making, discussed from the last post,  was performed this morning and the coin came up heads.  For those unfamiliar with this process, LB wants to codify the Rules for doing this properly.    Take a coin in your hand, cup the hands, shake the coin while having the eyes closed, then toss the coin high into air with eyes remaining closed, let it hit a hard floor, and then take a look.  If the coin bounces onto the carpet, then the rule says that it has to be flipped again.  RB: Before today, has anyone ever heard about rules for flipping a coin?

I did my part by voting against the merger between Merrill and BAC last year.  What lessons can be learned from General Hood's decision making process at the Battle of Franklin in 1864?Second Battle of Franklin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Impetuous decisions  will frequently backfire.  Does anyone really want a General Hood type character running their business?  There were far more good reasons for Hood to just let it go then to attack that day. 

The report today that BAC may need 34 billion more in capital is just another piece of bad news for its suffering shareholders.     WSJ.comHaving said that, I am not sure why the Feds are assuming a "worse case" scenario when Bernanke said yesterday that the economy will start to improve later this year.  Does that make sense?

ADDED:  THE TRANSACTION MANDATED BY THE COIN FLIP WAS COMPLETED AT 9:15 

 ADDED: CHANGED LINK TO POST WITH CHART

No comments:

Post a Comment