Economy:
US housing starts December 2019 Housing starts rose at a 16.9% annualized rate in December, the highest growth rate since 2006.
U.S. industrial output falls 0.3% in December, third drop in past four months - MarketWatch; "For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved down at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. At 109.4 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 1.0 percent lower in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.4 percentage point in December to 77.0 percent, a rate that is 2.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average." The Fed - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17
12-time champion forecaster sees U.S. economy easing in 2020 - MarketWatch He is predicting 1.5% real GDP growth in 2020 which sounds about right to me.
Gary Cohn says Trump's tariffs 'totally hurt the United States'
12-time champion forecaster sees U.S. economy easing in 2020 - MarketWatch He is predicting 1.5% real GDP growth in 2020 which sounds about right to me.
Gary Cohn says Trump's tariffs 'totally hurt the United States'
++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Stocks appear detached from reality, rallying in anticipation of two things that may not happen The S & P ETF (SPY) had a 2019 total return of 31.22%. SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Performance | Morningstar The return was based on a multiple expansion since S & P 500 earnings did not increase last year.
For now, the momentum is to the upside. The VIX remains in a Stable Vix Pattern movement as defined in my Vix Asset Allocation Model.
Blackstone's Schwarzman sees fewer buying opportunities in 2020
Extreme greed in the stock market is producing a bad setup as earnings season starts - MarketWatch
Stocks appear detached from reality, rallying in anticipation of two things that may not happen The S & P ETF (SPY) had a 2019 total return of 31.22%. SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Performance | Morningstar The return was based on a multiple expansion since S & P 500 earnings did not increase last year.
For now, the momentum is to the upside. The VIX remains in a Stable Vix Pattern movement as defined in my Vix Asset Allocation Model.
Blackstone's Schwarzman sees fewer buying opportunities in 2020
Extreme greed in the stock market is producing a bad setup as earnings season starts - MarketWatch
David Tepper says he's still betting on this bull market: 'I love riding a horse that's running'
Why wealthy investors are increasingly bullish on economy to start 2020
Why wealthy investors are increasingly bullish on economy to start 2020
Why ‘irrationally bullish’ investors are getting nervous as the stock market races to uncharted territory - MarketWatch
Treasury brings back the 20-year bond to pay for the ballooning deficit
Boeing doesn't expect regulators to sign off on 737 Max until mid-2020 Wishful thinking. The former CEO represented that the 737 Max would return to service late 2019.
Treasury brings back the 20-year bond to pay for the ballooning deficit
Boeing doesn't expect regulators to sign off on 737 Max until mid-2020 Wishful thinking. The former CEO represented that the 737 Max would return to service late 2019.
++++
Trump:
Demagogue Don has made 16,241 false and misleading statements during his first 3 years in office. President Trump made 16,241 false or misleading claims in his first three years - The Washington Post He is shooting for 20,000 false and misleading statements. In Trump's America, inhabited by almost half of the U.S. voting population, the Duck is honest, "tells it like it is" and is a role model for children.
Demagogue Don has made 16,241 false and misleading statements during his first 3 years in office. President Trump made 16,241 false or misleading claims in his first three years - The Washington Post He is shooting for 20,000 false and misleading statements. In Trump's America, inhabited by almost half of the U.S. voting population, the Duck is honest, "tells it like it is" and is a role model for children.
‘You’re a bunch of dopes and babies’: Inside Trump’s stunning tirade against generals Everybody is a dope compared to the Extremely Stable Genius.
Insider accounts of Donald's Presidency will be published long after he is no longer President. The latest is this book which paints a damning picture: A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trump's Testing of America by Philip Rucker & Carol Leonnig
Insider accounts of Donald's Presidency will be published long after he is no longer President. The latest is this book which paints a damning picture: A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trump's Testing of America by Philip Rucker & Carol Leonnig
How Trump Is Spreading a Conspiracy Theory About Pelosi, Biden and Sanders
Analysis: New text messages put Devin Nunes on the hot seat
Analysis: New text messages put Devin Nunes on the hot seat
Alan Dershowitz once said you can be impeached without committing a crime; Dershowitz's 1998 comments on impeachment resurface ahead of Trump trial - ABC News As one of Trump's lawyers, he is now arguing that proof of a crime is necessary.
What Are High Crimes and Misdemeanors? Here’s the History | Time
I will not be watching the ongoing impeachment trial since the outcome is certain, and I am already very familiar with the evidence.
Donald gave a speech to the assembled movers and shakers honoring himself as the greatest leader in history and attacking climate science. The President calls climate activists 'perennial prophets of doom' - CNN At Davos, Trump pooh-poohs climate crisis, lauds U.S. and fossil fuels - Los Angeles Times Donald did promise to plant some trees.
What Are High Crimes and Misdemeanors? Here’s the History | Time
I will not be watching the ongoing impeachment trial since the outcome is certain, and I am already very familiar with the evidence.
Donald gave a speech to the assembled movers and shakers honoring himself as the greatest leader in history and attacking climate science. The President calls climate activists 'perennial prophets of doom' - CNN At Davos, Trump pooh-poohs climate crisis, lauds U.S. and fossil fuels - Los Angeles Times Donald did promise to plant some trees.
+++++
1. Eliminated PRDGX:
Profit Snapshot: +$15,929.64
Sold on 1/9/20: PRDGX $53.85 +$0.34 +0.64%
Rated on 1/9/20 5 Stars by Morningstar
The ten year average annual total return was 13.04%. The fund had a 2019 total return of 31.02%.
As with other T. Rowe Price mutual funds, I had been taking the dividends in cash for several years.
A low cost ETF alternative to PRDGX is the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) Performance | Morningstar
T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) Performance | Morningstar
2. Small Ball Trades:
A. Eliminated TCPC: Sold 31+ at $14.14:
Profit Snapshot: +$13.98
Quote: BlackRock TCP Capital
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 10 TCPC at $13.17 (9/1/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/16/19 (received)
I took some dividends in cash and reinvested 2 quarterly payments.
Last Earnings Report: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results Including Net Investment Income Of $0.43 Per Share; 30 Consecutive Quarters Of Dividend Coverage
I am becoming concerned about non-performing loans.
I also do not care for this BDC's significant loan to Juul. The recent JUUL loan is discussed at pages 3 and 7 of the Q3 2019 Earnings Call Transcript-Seeking Alpha.
IMO, this BDC does not deserve a premium valuation to net asset value per share. My last buy was at a discount to net asset value per share. I would consider buying back some shares at a similar or preferably larger discount.
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
9/30/19: $13.59
6/30/19: $13.64
12/31/18: $14.13
12/31/17: $14.8
12/31/16: $14.91
12/31/15: $14.78 Earnings Release
12/31/14: $15.43
12/31/13: $15.18 Earnings Release
12/31/12 $14.71 Earnings Release
IPO on 4/3/12 at $14.75 Prospectus (proceeds after external manager's 1/2 reimbursement of the underwriters' discount and the BDC's cost related to the offering was at about $14.16 per share)
There are two points to keep in mind: (1) This BDC launched its IPO after the Near Depression period and has not yet been tested by a recession that will increase defaults and (2) It is best to remain skeptical of BDC valuations of their private loans. Over the past year or so I have noted several BDCs marking down loans valued at near par to zero within a 1 year period.
TCPC made a horrible PIK loan to a company called Fidelis. As of 3/31/19, TCPC marked the Term C PIK loan at $21.608M. The markdown went to zero in 3 months. There is also a Term B PIK loan to Fidelis in the original principal amount of $25.904M which had been marked down to $18.865M as of 6/30/19 and $13.229 as of 9/30/19. 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19 at page 6 Other problem loans are evident referring the list starting at page 3 of the 10-Q. Loans that are non-accruing are indicated by the letter "C" in the far right hand corner (e.g. AGY second lien loan)
Fidelis Term B and C Loans Valuations as of 9/30/18:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18
PIK loans to do pay cash interest. Interest is paid in more PIK bonds or what I call pretend interest.
Other Recent News:
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Prices $50,000,000 Of 3.9% Notes Due 2024
B. Bought 50 HBAN at $14.51:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc. Stock (HBAN)
2018 Annual Report
HBAN SEC Filings
Chart: Channel Trade between $12 to $16 since October 2016
The 2019 4th quarter earnings report is expected to be released tomorrow morning. The last report was not inspiring (see discussion below)
Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (snapshots of round-trip trades contained therein)
HBAN 2020 Consensus E.P.S. Estimate as of 1/15/20: $1.33
P/E at TC of $14.51 = 10.91
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Eliminations: Item # 5.B Sold 51+ HBAN at $14.5 (9/28/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Sold 104+ HBAN at $14.65 and 102+ at $14.57 (8/17/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 HBAN at $16.12 (2/3/18 Post)
Last Purchase Discussions: Item # 1.B. Added 10 HBAN at $12.85 and 10 at $11.8 (1/9/19 Post); Item #1 Bought 100 HBAN at $13.87-In a Roth IRA Account (3/17/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 10 HBAN at $13.85 (11/11/18 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 ($.6 annually), raised from $.14 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment made on 10/1/19.
HBAN Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/17/19
Dividend Yield at $14.51 = 4.135%
HBAN Trading Profits to Date = +$629.33
Last Earnings Report Before Purchase (Q/E 9/30/19):
E.P.S. $.34
Efficiency Ratio: 54.7%
NIM: 3.12% Net Interest Margins U.S. Banks
Charge-Off Ratio: .39% Charge-Off Rate Banks
NPA Ratio: .64%
ROA 1.37% Return on Average Assets U.S. Banks
ROE 13.4% Return on Average Equity U.S. Banks
ROTE = 17.3%
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 13.29%
Tangible Common Equity/Tangible Assets Ratio = 8%
Tangible book value per share = $8.25
Repurchased $68M of common stock at an average price of $13.02.
The net charge-off ratio increased to .39% from .16%. There were also increases in the NPL and NPA ratios. NIM declined Y-O-Y from 3.32% to 3.2%. All of those trends are negatives. The efficiency ratio went down slightly which is a positive.
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Reports 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Of $0.34 Per Common Share
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19
Current Position: 50 shares (all prior purchases have been sold)
Maximum Position: 100 shares (may increase to 150 shares with better earnings reports)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Last Bond Offering (8/19): $800M of 2.625% SU bonds maturing in 2024 (FINRA Bond Detail page, rated BBB+/Baa1) This bond is currently trading over its par value.
Brokerage Reports: Available to Schwab customers
Argus (10/28/19): Neutral
Morningstar (1/2/20 note): 3 stars with a FV of $14.5
The concerns expressed in those reports relate to NIM compression and a concentration of commercial loans in Ohio and Michigan. Interestingly, both analysts estimate that earning will grow in 2020, the current P/E ratio based on their respective 2020 E.P.S. estimates is near 10, and the dividend yield, which will likely be increased, is currently over 4%.
I do not have access to the following reports:
Raymond James raised its PT to $17 from $16 (1/7/20)
Barclays raised PT to $17 from $16 (1/6/20)
Deutsche Bank downgraded to hold from buy while keeping its $15 PT (1/6/20).
J P Morgan raised its PT to $16.5 from $14.5 (12/17/19)
UBS cuts from buy to neutral (12/13/19)
HBAN mentioned in this article: This basket of dividend growth stocks can help your portfolio stand out in 2020 - MarketWatch The basket was created by Goldman Sachs.
Goal: Very low expectation. Likely sell in the $15 to $16 range after collecting at least 1 quarterly dividend.
C. Sold 100 FIE:CA at C$7.37 (C$1 commission):
Quote: iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF
Sponsor's Website: iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF
Profit Snapshot: +C$22.5
Item # 1 Bought 100 FIE:CA at C$7.12 (11/7/18 Post)
Holdings as of 1/15/20:
Remaining Position: 400 shares
Item # 1 Bought 100 FIE:CA at $6.74 (9/21/19 Post); Item # 1: Added 100 FIE:CA at C$ 6.84 (7/13/19 Post); Item # 2. Bought 100 FIE:CA at C$6.92(4/7/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Added 100 FIE:CA at C$6.9 (12/23/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share: C$6.85
Dividend: Monthly at C$.04 (C$.48 annually)
Yield at Average Cost for 400 shares = 7%
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 5. Sold 300 FIE:CA at C$7.64 (11/26/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$160); Item # 5. Sold 300 FIE:CA at C$7.64 (11/26/17 Post) (profit snapshot=C$35)(contains snapshots of prior round-trip trades= USD$391.32 for 1500 shares and USD$58.07 for 300 shares; C$166 for 200 shares); Item # 2.C. Sold 100 FIE:CA at C$7.33 (12/11/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$3) Some of the profit snapshots are in USDs since the broker converted the CAD profit into USDs.
FIE:CA Profits Realized to Date:
USD 449.39
C$ 204
Maximum Position: 1500 Shares
Strategy: Frequent Trading in relatively narrow price channel.
D. Bought Back 100 CJREF at $$4.08:
Website: Corus Entertainment
Television - Corus Entertainment
Radio - Corus Entertainment
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Corus Entertainment Cl B NV (U.S. Pink Sheets)
CAD Price Shares: Corus Entertainment Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price Yesterday: CJREF US$4.2400 +$0.0280 +0.66%
A symbol ending in "F" denotes the ordinary shares of a foreign company that are priced in USDs and traded either on the U.S. pink sheet exchange or the U.S. Grey Market. CJREF is the ordinary share of Corus Entertainment priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. Dividends will be paid and converted into USDs at the prevailing exchange rate. When held in a taxable account, Canada will withhold a 15% tax.
Last Eliminations: Item #3.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35 (12/7/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35 (10/16/19 Post) I have this one on a tight leash.
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 2 Bought Back 100 CJREF at $3.73-Commission Free Trade (11/6/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
Dividends - Corus Entertainment
Last Earnings Report:
The important number for me is free cash flow which increased to C$53.048M from C$42.406M in the Q/E. 11/30/18. Revenues were flat Y-O-Y.
Report for the Q/E 11/30/19
Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2020 First Quarter Results
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
A low cost ETF alternative to PRDGX is the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) Performance | Morningstar
T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) Performance | Morningstar
2. Small Ball Trades:
A. Eliminated TCPC: Sold 31+ at $14.14:
Profit Snapshot: +$13.98
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 10 TCPC at $13.17 (9/1/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/16/19 (received)
I took some dividends in cash and reinvested 2 quarterly payments.
Last Earnings Report: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results Including Net Investment Income Of $0.43 Per Share; 30 Consecutive Quarters Of Dividend Coverage
I am becoming concerned about non-performing loans.
I also do not care for this BDC's significant loan to Juul. The recent JUUL loan is discussed at pages 3 and 7 of the Q3 2019 Earnings Call Transcript-Seeking Alpha.
IMO, this BDC does not deserve a premium valuation to net asset value per share. My last buy was at a discount to net asset value per share. I would consider buying back some shares at a similar or preferably larger discount.
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
9/30/19: $13.59
6/30/19: $13.64
12/31/18: $14.13
12/31/17: $14.8
12/31/16: $14.91
12/31/15: $14.78 Earnings Release
12/31/14: $15.43
12/31/13: $15.18 Earnings Release
12/31/12 $14.71 Earnings Release
IPO on 4/3/12 at $14.75 Prospectus (proceeds after external manager's 1/2 reimbursement of the underwriters' discount and the BDC's cost related to the offering was at about $14.16 per share)
There are two points to keep in mind: (1) This BDC launched its IPO after the Near Depression period and has not yet been tested by a recession that will increase defaults and (2) It is best to remain skeptical of BDC valuations of their private loans. Over the past year or so I have noted several BDCs marking down loans valued at near par to zero within a 1 year period.
TCPC made a horrible PIK loan to a company called Fidelis. As of 3/31/19, TCPC marked the Term C PIK loan at $21.608M. The markdown went to zero in 3 months. There is also a Term B PIK loan to Fidelis in the original principal amount of $25.904M which had been marked down to $18.865M as of 6/30/19 and $13.229 as of 9/30/19. 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19 at page 6 Other problem loans are evident referring the list starting at page 3 of the 10-Q. Loans that are non-accruing are indicated by the letter "C" in the far right hand corner (e.g. AGY second lien loan)
Fidelis Term B and C Loans Valuations as of 9/30/18:
PIK loans to do pay cash interest. Interest is paid in more PIK bonds or what I call pretend interest.
Other Recent News:
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Prices $50,000,000 Of 3.9% Notes Due 2024
B. Bought 50 HBAN at $14.51:
2018 Annual Report
HBAN SEC Filings
Chart: Channel Trade between $12 to $16 since October 2016
Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (snapshots of round-trip trades contained therein)
HBAN 2020 Consensus E.P.S. Estimate as of 1/15/20: $1.33
P/E at TC of $14.51 = 10.91
HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Eliminations: Item # 5.B Sold 51+ HBAN at $14.5 (9/28/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Sold 104+ HBAN at $14.65 and 102+ at $14.57 (8/17/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 HBAN at $16.12 (2/3/18 Post)
Last Purchase Discussions: Item # 1.B. Added 10 HBAN at $12.85 and 10 at $11.8 (1/9/19 Post); Item #1 Bought 100 HBAN at $13.87-In a Roth IRA Account (3/17/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 10 HBAN at $13.85 (11/11/18 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 ($.6 annually), raised from $.14 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment made on 10/1/19.
HBAN Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/17/19
Dividend Yield at $14.51 = 4.135%
HBAN Trading Profits to Date = +$629.33
Last Earnings Report Before Purchase (Q/E 9/30/19):
E.P.S. $.34
Efficiency Ratio: 54.7%
NIM: 3.12% Net Interest Margins U.S. Banks
Charge-Off Ratio: .39% Charge-Off Rate Banks
NPA Ratio: .64%
ROA 1.37% Return on Average Assets U.S. Banks
ROE 13.4% Return on Average Equity U.S. Banks
ROTE = 17.3%
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 13.29%
Tangible Common Equity/Tangible Assets Ratio = 8%
Tangible book value per share = $8.25
Repurchased $68M of common stock at an average price of $13.02.
The net charge-off ratio increased to .39% from .16%. There were also increases in the NPL and NPA ratios. NIM declined Y-O-Y from 3.32% to 3.2%. All of those trends are negatives. The efficiency ratio went down slightly which is a positive.
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Reports 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Of $0.34 Per Common Share
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/19
Current Position: 50 shares (all prior purchases have been sold)
Maximum Position: 100 shares (may increase to 150 shares with better earnings reports)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Last Bond Offering (8/19): $800M of 2.625% SU bonds maturing in 2024 (FINRA Bond Detail page, rated BBB+/Baa1) This bond is currently trading over its par value.
Brokerage Reports: Available to Schwab customers
Argus (10/28/19): Neutral
Morningstar (1/2/20 note): 3 stars with a FV of $14.5
The concerns expressed in those reports relate to NIM compression and a concentration of commercial loans in Ohio and Michigan. Interestingly, both analysts estimate that earning will grow in 2020, the current P/E ratio based on their respective 2020 E.P.S. estimates is near 10, and the dividend yield, which will likely be increased, is currently over 4%.
I do not have access to the following reports:
Raymond James raised its PT to $17 from $16 (1/7/20)
Barclays raised PT to $17 from $16 (1/6/20)
Deutsche Bank downgraded to hold from buy while keeping its $15 PT (1/6/20).
J P Morgan raised its PT to $16.5 from $14.5 (12/17/19)
UBS cuts from buy to neutral (12/13/19)
HBAN mentioned in this article: This basket of dividend growth stocks can help your portfolio stand out in 2020 - MarketWatch The basket was created by Goldman Sachs.
Goal: Very low expectation. Likely sell in the $15 to $16 range after collecting at least 1 quarterly dividend.
C. Sold 100 FIE:CA at C$7.37 (C$1 commission):
Quote: iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF
Sponsor's Website: iShares Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF
Profit Snapshot: +C$22.5
Holdings as of 1/15/20:
Item # 1 Bought 100 FIE:CA at $6.74 (9/21/19 Post); Item # 1: Added 100 FIE:CA at C$ 6.84 (7/13/19 Post); Item # 2. Bought 100 FIE:CA at C$6.92(4/7/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Added 100 FIE:CA at C$6.9 (12/23/18 Post)
Average Cost Per Share: C$6.85
Dividend: Monthly at C$.04 (C$.48 annually)
Yield at Average Cost for 400 shares = 7%
Prior Round-Trips: Item # 5. Sold 300 FIE:CA at C$7.64 (11/26/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$160); Item # 5. Sold 300 FIE:CA at C$7.64 (11/26/17 Post) (profit snapshot=C$35)(contains snapshots of prior round-trip trades= USD$391.32 for 1500 shares and USD$58.07 for 300 shares; C$166 for 200 shares); Item # 2.C. Sold 100 FIE:CA at C$7.33 (12/11/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$3) Some of the profit snapshots are in USDs since the broker converted the CAD profit into USDs.
FIE:CA Profits Realized to Date:
USD 449.39
C$ 204
Maximum Position: 1500 Shares
Strategy: Frequent Trading in relatively narrow price channel.
D. Bought Back 100 CJREF at $$4.08:
Television - Corus Entertainment
Radio - Corus Entertainment
Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: Corus Entertainment Cl B NV (U.S. Pink Sheets)
CAD Price Shares: Corus Entertainment Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price Yesterday: CJREF US$4.2400 +$0.0280 +0.66%
A symbol ending in "F" denotes the ordinary shares of a foreign company that are priced in USDs and traded either on the U.S. pink sheet exchange or the U.S. Grey Market. CJREF is the ordinary share of Corus Entertainment priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. Dividends will be paid and converted into USDs at the prevailing exchange rate. When held in a taxable account, Canada will withhold a 15% tax.
Last Eliminations: Item #3.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35 (12/7/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 CJREF at $4.35 (10/16/19 Post) I have this one on a tight leash.
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 2 Bought Back 100 CJREF at $3.73-Commission Free Trade (11/6/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.06 per share
Dividends - Corus Entertainment
Last Earnings Report:
Report for the Q/E 11/30/19
Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2020 First Quarter Results
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The bungee jumper Menlo Therapeutics Inc. declined $.38 or 5.89% today, trading in a range between $5.96 and $6.76:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mnlo
The market cap is around $155M at the closing price.
One reason for the bungee jumping is that hedge funds can not build or exit a position without causing significant price movements. Those are market related dynamics.
Ultimately the price will be governed by fundamentals, including the outcome of two Phase 3 trials for Menlo's drug serlopitant for pruritus (itching) associated with prurigo nodularis which will be reported in a few months.
The Phase 2 results for this indication were reported in this SEC filing back in December 2018
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1566044/000156459018030737/mnlo-ex991_6.htm
On 1/15/19, the FDA granted granted Breakthrough Therapy designation for serlopitant for the treatment of pruritus associated with prurigo nodularis.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1566044/000156459019004902/mnlo-ex991_33.htm
The drug is also in trials for itching caused by psoriasis and unknown causes.
http://www.menlotherapeutics.com/pipeline-2/
Other fundamental factors include the scrips data for Foamix's FDA approved drug for acne, which are probably starting to become available. The relevance for MNLO is that it is in the process of acquiring Foamix. And, Foamix has another drug for the treatment of rosacea that is waiting for FDA's approval.
A Schedule 13G filing was just made by the hedge fund Point72 Capital Advisors, Inc. managed by Steve Cohen that reported the acquisition of 5.8% of MNLO's outstanding shares on 1/9/20.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1566044/000089914020000039/p32806377a.htm
That is a tiny fraction of this hedge fund's portfolio (about .05% weighting).
This acquisition is not yet shown on the Yahoo Finance's list of major holders which includes mostly hedge funds:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNLO/holders?p=MNLO
While the trial for itching associated with psoriasis "met the primary endpoint", Menlo "has chosen to defer the decision to start a Phase 3 clinical program in pruritus associated with psoriasis until 2020 in consideration of prudent resource prioritization and allocation management."
http://ir.menlotherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/menlo-therapeutics-reports-third-quarter-2019-financial-results
In other words, the company does not have enough cash to start a Phase 3 trial for that indication.
"As of September 30, 2019, Menlo had $93.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments, compared to $136.3 million as of December 31, 2018." So the burn rate is substantial for such a small clinical stage drug company.
The Huntington (HBAN) earnings report released this morning was disappointing. Most of the financial metrics are going in the wrong direction:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49196/000004919620000002/hban201912318kex991.htm
I discussed in this post buying 50 shares. The maximum position is 100 shares. I am revising my small ball "purchase program" to 10 shares lots with the next purchase being at below $14.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/01/aht-bhb-ffbc-fitb-nmfc-rmt.html