Economy:
Existing home sales plunge in May, but Realtors think that was the bottom
Homebuilders see strongest May new home sales in over a decade, but they have a big problem (new homes sales were up 13% annually, but new homes starts and permits were down 18% and 10% annually)
In context the new home sales number was not so hot:
New One Family Houses Sold: United States -St. Louis Fed
Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started- FRED | St. Louis Fed (big dive on right hand side)
Architecture billings downward trajectory moderates - AIA (reported at 32; any number below 50 indicates a decrease in billings)
Jobless claims dip to 1.48 million, but slow decline signals choppy economic recovery - MarketWatch
Existing home sales plunge in May, but Realtors think that was the bottom
Homebuilders see strongest May new home sales in over a decade, but they have a big problem (new homes sales were up 13% annually, but new homes starts and permits were down 18% and 10% annually)
In context the new home sales number was not so hot:
Architecture billings downward trajectory moderates - AIA (reported at 32; any number below 50 indicates a decrease in billings)
Jobless claims dip to 1.48 million, but slow decline signals choppy economic recovery - MarketWatch
Banks have grown by $2 trillion in deposits since coronavirus first hit; see Fed's Money Stock and Debt Measures - H.6 Release - June 18, 2020
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro denies saying China trade deal is 'over' He did make that categorical statement in the context of his claims that China had lied to the U.S. about the coronavirus and had committed numerous other unsavory acts.
Martha MacCallum: “Given everything that’s happened and all the things you just listed, is that over?”
Peter Navarro: “It’s over.” Peter Navarro admits China trade deal is 'over' in Fox News interview - YouTube ( starts at 4:52)
Trump had stated last month that he was "very torn" over terminating the "Phase 1" deal. US-China trade: Trump 'torn' over phase one deal Politically it would be disadvantageous for Trump to terminate the trade deal before the election.
Martha MacCallum: “Given everything that’s happened and all the things you just listed, is that over?”
Peter Navarro: “It’s over.” Peter Navarro admits China trade deal is 'over' in Fox News interview - YouTube ( starts at 4:52)
Trump had stated last month that he was "very torn" over terminating the "Phase 1" deal. US-China trade: Trump 'torn' over phase one deal Politically it would be disadvantageous for Trump to terminate the trade deal before the election.
Navarro's unambiguous comment in the proper context was that Trump was going to terminate the Phase 1 trade deal. The comment was made after the market closed on 6/23/20. The initial reaction was a 400 point DJIA decline. If the Stock Jocks actually believed Navarro was correctly summarizing what Trump was about to do, the DJIA would have been down far more, probably by more than 2000 points. The Stock Jock's initial reaction was more like Navarro may be accurately stating U.S. policy but we seriously doubt it.
I suspect that Navarro had convinced the impulsive Trump to punish China by terminating the deal and then Kudlow, Mnuchin and others convinced Donald that was a bad idea a few months prior to the election.
U.S. hits highest single day of coronavirus cases at 45,500, breaking April record (6/24/20 article referring to reported infections on 6/23/20)
41% of businesses closed on Yelp have shut down for good during the coronavirus pandemic - MarketWatch The Stock Jocks are underestimating the long term impact of what has actually already happened in the U.S. economy IMO.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Hit One-Day Record Sweeping Across 3 Largest States (6/26/20, referring to new cases last Thursday)
The Second Coronavirus Surge Is Here - The Atlantic This is a useful article explaining why the cases are surging.
STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 20 June | STR (Occupancy down 41.3% Y-O-Y; revenue per room declined 60.3%)
Trump administration urges Supreme Court to end Obamacare amid recession and pandemic
Most U.S. Travelers Will Be Barred From E.U. When Bloc Reopens - The New York Times
I suspect that Navarro had convinced the impulsive Trump to punish China by terminating the deal and then Kudlow, Mnuchin and others convinced Donald that was a bad idea a few months prior to the election.
U.S. hits highest single day of coronavirus cases at 45,500, breaking April record (6/24/20 article referring to reported infections on 6/23/20)
41% of businesses closed on Yelp have shut down for good during the coronavirus pandemic - MarketWatch The Stock Jocks are underestimating the long term impact of what has actually already happened in the U.S. economy IMO.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Hit One-Day Record Sweeping Across 3 Largest States (6/26/20, referring to new cases last Thursday)
The Second Coronavirus Surge Is Here - The Atlantic This is a useful article explaining why the cases are surging.
STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 20 June | STR (Occupancy down 41.3% Y-O-Y; revenue per room declined 60.3%)
Trump administration urges Supreme Court to end Obamacare amid recession and pandemic
Most U.S. Travelers Will Be Barred From E.U. When Bloc Reopens - The New York Times
++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The S & P 500 closed last week at 3,009.05, down 74.71 or 2.42% for the day. The close took this index below its 200 day SMA line using a one year Yahoo Finance chart. The SMA line was at 3,020.94. S&P 500 Chart The close on Friday 6/19/20 was at 3,097.74. The most recent intraday high was at 3,233.13 which was hit intraday on 6/8/20. S&P 500 Historical
The VIX closed last Friday at 34.73, up 7.79%.
Gold is continuing to show strength: GLD Chart
Award-winning forecaster says U.S. economy might not heal by next year, putting stocks at risk of correction - MarketWatch My best guess now is that GDP and SPX corporate profits will not return to 2019 levels prior to 2022.
‘Will the Fed spend trillion of dollars, every year, forever to support the market? asks billionaire Howard Marks - MarketWatch That is a good question. Another good question is how much longer can the U.S. government support the economy with $1+ trillion budget deficits with the current calendar year likely to be $4 trillion. This can not end well.
Stock-market investors are suddenly spooked by rapidly rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. Here’s why - MarketWatch
The stock market may be pricey, but it's nothing like the genuine market bubbles of the past But that conclusion depends on whether the Stocks Jocks being right about the Blue Sky scenario.
The S & P 500 closed last week at 3,009.05, down 74.71 or 2.42% for the day. The close took this index below its 200 day SMA line using a one year Yahoo Finance chart. The SMA line was at 3,020.94. S&P 500 Chart The close on Friday 6/19/20 was at 3,097.74. The most recent intraday high was at 3,233.13 which was hit intraday on 6/8/20. S&P 500 Historical
The VIX closed last Friday at 34.73, up 7.79%.
Gold is continuing to show strength: GLD Chart
Award-winning forecaster says U.S. economy might not heal by next year, putting stocks at risk of correction - MarketWatch My best guess now is that GDP and SPX corporate profits will not return to 2019 levels prior to 2022.
‘Will the Fed spend trillion of dollars, every year, forever to support the market? asks billionaire Howard Marks - MarketWatch That is a good question. Another good question is how much longer can the U.S. government support the economy with $1+ trillion budget deficits with the current calendar year likely to be $4 trillion. This can not end well.
Stock-market investors are suddenly spooked by rapidly rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. Here’s why - MarketWatch
The stock market may be pricey, but it's nothing like the genuine market bubbles of the past But that conclusion depends on whether the Stocks Jocks being right about the Blue Sky scenario.
There's nearly $5 trillion parked in money markets as many investors are still afraid of stocks
The ‘Fed story’ will win out over second wave and election fears, UBS says. It’s time for investors to get off the sidelines - MarketWatch I will stay on the sidelines for now. While I am buying selectively, the amounts being invested are more indicative of a sideline kind of posture.
‘La la land?’ The stock market is ‘insanely disconnected’ and due for a ‘reckoning,’ - MarketWatch That observation was made by Kevin Smith who is chief investment officer of Crescat Capital, a firm previously unknown to me. Crescat Capital | Value-Driven Performance
M1 and M2 increased by 33.5% and 23% respectively for the 12 month period ending in May, seasonally adjusted. The Fed - Money Stock and Debt Measures - H.6 Release - June 18, 2020
M2 Money Stock (M2) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
FED Balance Sheet Trends:
Federal Reserve Board - Recent balance sheet trends
FED Balance Sheet:
System Open Market Account Holdings - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
IMF: global economy to contract with coronavirus recovery slow (the new IMF estimate is for a 4.9% decline in world GDP, down from its April forecast of -3%)
FED Balance Sheet Trends:
Federal Reserve Board - Recent balance sheet trends
FED Balance Sheet:
IMF: global economy to contract with coronavirus recovery slow (the new IMF estimate is for a 4.9% decline in world GDP, down from its April forecast of -3%)
USD's demand as 'emergency dollar' could be waning, Deutsche Bank says
China suspends imports of poultry from Tyson plant over coronavirus concerns
GNC files for bankruptcy, with plans to close up to 1,200 stores - MarketWatch
Nike (NKE) reports Q4 2020 earnings (loss of $.51 per share vs. consensus of +7 cents, revenues declined by 38%)
Fed puts restrictions on bank dividends after test finds some banks could be stressed in pandemic
Consumer sentiment slips in late June as confidence in U.S. economic policies slumps to Trump-era low - MarketWatch
Facebook, Twitter boycotts push social-media ETFs to worst week since March - MarketWatch; Unilever pauses Facebook and Twitter advertising for rest of 2020 A growing list of companies are pulling ads from Facebook and Twitter. Those social media platforms are conduits for hate speech, election interference and false information.
++++++
Trump:
“Everybody, soon or late, sits down at a banquet of consequences.” Robert Louis Stevenson Quotes (Author of Treasure Island)
U.S. sets a record for average daily coronavirus cases, rising in more than 30 states (6/26/20 article)
New U.S. coronavirus cases hit 45,242 for biggest one-day increase of pandemic - Reuters (6/27)
Doctor Don's Miracle Cure for Covid-19:
Coronavirus: NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine after finding no benefit to patients (6/20/20);
U.S. halts test of Trump-touted hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 patients
NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine | National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Hydroxychloroquine no longer used at local hospitals to treat COVID-19 | Las Vegas Review-Journal
So when will Donald acknowledge that he was touting a drug that was potentially harmful and had no benefit? The answer is never.
Will the Fox News personalities Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham apologize for recommending this potentially harmful drug to their listeners?
This is a summary of statements made by Fox News personalities:
1, Jesse Waters: Waters denounced the "cherry-picking snakes, liars and backstabbing hypocrites” who have prevented people from taking the drug. No one in the media has prevented anyone from taking the drug, of course, but that is irrelevant in TrumpWorld. Any doctor can prescribe it after the FDA gave emergency approval for off label use.
2. Tucker Carlson: Referring to media outlets that report factual information about this drug, Carlson had this to say: “It is probably the most shameful thing I, as someone who has done this for 20 years, has ever seen. It’s making a lot of us ashamed to work in the same profession as those people. So reckless and wrong in the middle of a pandemic, it really is, for real.”
3. Laura Ingraham: “After hearing all of the stories where hydroxychloroquine is credited with saving lives, it is amazing that the left and the medical establishment is still in total denial about the potential of these decades-old drugs.” If anyone recovers who takes the drug, that is proof in TrumpWorld that the drug caused the recovery.
Ingraham refers to scientific and medical evidence that contradicts her delusions as "drivel". Hydroxychloroquine truther Laura Ingraham urges Trump campaign to ignore "alarmist COVID drivel" | Salon.com (6/17/20 article); Fox's Laura Ingraham mocks 'The Medical Deep State' and 'science' - New York Daily News (6/16/20); Fox News host claims ‘no real scientific basis’ to social distancing. True or false? - HoustonChronicle.com She is incapable of seeing any difference between packing an enclosed arena with no social distancing and limited mask wearing and an outdoor protest where there was substantial mask wearing and social distancing.
4. Sean Hannity: The drug is showing success “in spite of what the mob and the media is telling you.”
These individuals need a red flashing banner at the bottom of a TV screen saying: "Warning: Listening to Me is Dangerous to Your Health".
Fox News Stars Trumpeted a Malaria Drug-The New York Times; From Fox News, a big dose of dumb on hydroxychloroquine - The Washington Post
New research explores how conservative media misinformation may have intensified coronavirus - The Washington Post
There never was any scientific reason to believe that the Duck's miracle drug was effective but that did not stop him and his talking heads at Fox "news" from touting it and continuing to do so even after evidence proved that it was potentially harmful to some people and had no benefit.
Ousted coronavirus whistleblower Dr. Rick Bright says Trump administration is 'on the warpath' against him Dr. Bright disagreed with Doctor Don's pumping of hydroxychloroquine, so he had to go.
++
Donald's Mass COVID-19 Infection Event in Tulsa:
How to empty seat - YouTube
Inside the Cult of Trump, His Rallies Are Church and He Is the Gospel | Vanity Fair
Six members of Trump's campaign team test positive for COVID-19 Two more later tested positive. Two more Trump staffers test positive for coronavirus after Tulsa rally
Oklahoma reporter who attended Trump's Tulsa rally tests positive for coronavirus
President Trump's Tulsa Rally Highlights His Record of Racial Division
Top members of coronavirus task force advised against Trump's Tulsa rally The bottom line is Donald could care less whether people become infected at his rally, transmit the infection to others, and there are deaths associated with attendance. And, I doubt that the Trumpsters care either viewing it as their constitutional right to become infected and to infect others.
So is Donald really pro-life when he encourages his followers to avoid wearing masks and to ignore social distancing guidelines, which is what actually happened at his Tulsa's rally?
Tulsa Sets Coronavirus Case Record As Trump Rallygoers Dispute Health Risks
Oklahoma coronavirus: COVID-19 cases rise ahead of Trump Tulsa rally
Donald's campaign claimed that more than a million people signed up for tickets. Trump campaign touts 1 million ticket requests for Tulsa rally | Fox News
Since the BOX arena would hold about 19K, an outdoor arena was set up to handle up to an estimated 40K overflow crowd. Hardly anyone showed for the outside event which was canceled and a large number of empty seats were noticeable inside the area. Trump, Pence scrap planned outdoor speeches at Tulsa rally | TheHill
Tulsa fire department says just under 6,200 people attended Trump rally - Axios The Trump Campaign claimed there was over 12K. Who would you believe, a Trump campaign official or the Tulsa Fire Marshall?
There was no social distancing inside the area and most people were not wearing masks. I would estimate that less than 10% of attendees were wearing a mask Many republicans view mask wearing as an interference in their personal freedom to infect as many as people as possible. Freedom without responsibility is their motto.
Trump falsely blamed a small group of peaceful BLM protestors for the low attendance.
During the speech, Trump claimed that he ordered slower coronavirus testing. Donald: “When you do testing to that extent, you will find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’”
In TrumpWorld, if you do not test, there would be no new infections. Trump’s Tulsa rally: He says he wanted to 'slow the testing down' on COVID-19 and other takeaways Several of the Duck's advisors including his Press Secretary and Peter Navarro claimed he was joking which is a common excuse now for outrageous Trump statements and claims.
When asked whether he was joking, Trump replied "I don't kid". ‘I don’t kid’: Trump says he wasn’t joking about slowing coronavirus testing - POLITICO Last Friday, he changed his tune claiming that he was being sarcastic.
Lawmakers protest as feds pull support from 4 Harris County COVID testing sites - HoustonChronicle.com
Coronavirus: Federal government to end funding some Covid-19 test sites
Donald also castigated protestors who wanted to remove statutes of Confederate, referring to that effort as a "desecration" and a demolishment of "our heritage". The Trumpsters cheered that a U.S. President wants praise traitors who fought against the United States in an effort to preserve slavery.
He also used a racial slur to refer to the virus.
The Duck also aired his usual grievances.
He rambled for 101 minutes including several minutes devoted to defending his feeble walk down that ramp at West Point.
With ‘kung flu,’ ‘thugs,’ and ‘our heritage,’ Trump leans on racial grievance as he reaches for a campaign reset
Don the Authoritarian threatened protestors who might show up for his rally:
The threat did include "anarchists", "looters", "agitators" and "lowlifes" in addition to "protestors". In TrumpWorld, "lowlifes" and "agitators" are the same as "protestors". There were no "looters". There were some reporters at the rally who are "scum" in need of having their head severed from their body with Donald being judge and jury. Bolton claims Trump said reporters 'should be executed,' requested DOJ seek jail time | Fox News
Fact check: Trump's Tulsa rally littered with familiar false claims - CNN
Trump 'furious' about 'underwhelming' crowd at Tulsa rally
PolitiFact | Trump wrongly claims Biden wants to prosecute churchgoers and does not want to prosecute church burners
PolitiFact | The Stump Speech Analyzer: Donald Trump in Tulsa
PolitiFact | Donald Trump’s Pants on Fire claim that nobody had heard of Juneteenth
++++
Donald's Mass Infection Rally in Arizona-6/23/20:
Donald held another indoor rally in Arizona that is currently experiencing a surge in Covid-19 infections. President Donald Trump visits Arizona as COVID-19 cases rise; ADHS - Data Dashboard (2,196 new cases the day before this event) The state also experienced a surge in hospitalizations last Sunday and Monday. Arizona COVID-19 Hospitalizations Soar Ahead of Phoenix Trump Student Rally
How Arizona ‘lost control of the epidemic’
The rally was at the Dream City Church and was attended by about 3K mostly young students. The rally was sponsored by Students for Trump, a subgroup of Turning Point Action.
Mask wearing was optional and few attendees wore one.
I would estimate that about 1 in 30 attendees were wearing a mask.
Social distancing was not practiced anywhere in the packed, enclosed space.
Hundreds line up hours ahead of President Trump's rally in north Phoenix | Arizona News | azfamily.com
Two church officials, senior pastor, Luke Barnett and Chief Operations Officer Brendon Zastrow, claimed hat they had an air purification system that would kill 99.9 % of Covid-19. Can air filtration stop coronavirus at a Trump rally in Phoenix? Experts doubt it. ("It's the kind of claim that has little basis in reality, experts say. Both the ionization technology on which the system is based, as well as the way it works, are of limited effectiveness."); Phoenix Megachurch Hosting Trump Rally Says It Has a Special Virus-Killing Air System | Phoenix New Times; Ahead of Trump Visit, Church Makes Unproven Claim of Virus-Killing Technology - The New York Times
Supreme Court Ruling on DACA-Temporary Setback For Donald and the GOP in their Efforts to Deport the Dreamers:
Donald and the republican party want to deport the DACA children to their country of origin.
Notwithstanding the temporary setback handed to them by the Supreme Court, the GOP will move quickly to accomplish their overriding goal to repeal DACA and to deport those youngsters who entered the U.S. illegally long ago as children.
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s bid to end DACA, a win for undocumented ‘Dreamers’
While the Supreme Court decision gives the DACA children a temporary reprieve from deportation by the republicans, Donald framed the issue as a major campaign issue that placed fundamental constitutional rights at risk:
What did a 5 to 4 Supreme Court decision actually do that so upset Donald? Supreme Court DACA decision a win for Trump | TheHill Trump can end DACA provided he follows the technical legal way to do so. Trump finally came to that conclusion and expressed it as the Tulsa rally: Trump Says 'We Won on DACA' at Tulsa Rally After Supreme Court Ruling
The main part of the republican base wants to send these kids back to their countries of origin, even though they are completely Americanized and have been for years. The problem for republican politicians is that a significant minority of their members actually want to provide a path to citizenship for the Dreamers.
The message that you will hear from republican politicians will claim that DACA needs to be ended, giving some lame excuse, but something will done for the Dreamers as part of a comprehensive immigration policy that funds the wall along the border, reduces legal immigration, establishes a new merit based system; eliminates most chained migration, and provides some temporary protection to the Dreamers. The Trump Immigration Plan: A Lopsided Proposal; What You Need to Know About DACA and the ‘Dreamers’ - The Washington Post In short, the republicans are holding the DACA children as hostage to secure Democrat concessions that are anathema to them.
DACA ‘unlawful’ despite Supreme Court ruling, acting Homeland Security chief says - POLITICO
++
Bolton's Book:
A better book to read, which should be required reading for all republicans, is this one: Donald Trump and His Assault on Truth: The President's Falsehoods, Misleading Claims and Flat-Out Lies eBook: Staff, The Washington Post Fact Checker: Kindle Store
The republican district court judge Royce Lambert refused to enjoin the release of Bolton's book.
In Lambert's opinion, the book had already been distributed too widely for the government to show irreparable harm, a necessary showing for a temporary injunction.
Judge Lambert then inappropriately IMO made preliminary findings on the merits that indicated hostility to Bolton and a too eager willingness to accept the government's contention that the book contained classified information. Opinion.pdf
The reasons for my opinion are (1) the book was cleared by the official responsible for scrubbing any classified information out of it, (2) Trump political appointees then claimed that this official made the incorrect decision and (3) the reasons why Trump political appointees would disagree with the unbiased professional who clear the book are obvious given the contents of the book. .
The recent political appointee and Trump sycophant Robert C. O'Brien ordered another review and ordered the Trump loyalist, Michael T. Ellis, a former aide to Devin Nunes, to conduct the inquiry. There was no question what the result of that review would be. Both O'Brien and Ellis are lawyers and 100% pure Trumpsters. Michael Ellis (Trump administration official) - Wikipedia, see also 2 White House Officials Helped Give Nunes Intelligence Reports-The New York Times (one of those officials was Michael T. Ellis)
An impartial and non-partisan judge would have been highly suspicious of this new claim of classified material originating from Trump's political loyalists with no national security credentials. Royce Lambert is not impartial IMO.
And it is important to realize that his opinion on the merits was superfluous once he decided that the government could not prove irreparable harm. His opinion indicated that he had made up his mind on the merits without hearing all of the evidence and having the parties conduct discovery and detailed cross examination of witnesses.
Bolton's book will not change any minds. It is hardly news to those opposed to Demagogue Don that he is fond of dictators; impulsive and erratic; confirms his ignorance on a daily basis; is unwilling to learn; and was mocked by those closest to him.
Trump Approves of China Isolating Uighur Muslims in Gulags:
Perhaps the most revealing and new piece of information is Trump's willingness to approve China's gulags for the Uighur Muslims.
Bolton: “According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do.”
Bolton alleges Trump encouraged Xi to continue with Uighur detainment camps - Axios
We knew Trump didn’t care for human rights in China. But this is a new low. - The Washington Post
Ukraine-Of Course There was a Quid Pro Quo:
Bolton: "According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do."
Bolton also confirmed that Trump expressly linked Ukraine's military aid to an investigation of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.
Bolton: On 8/20/20 , Trump "said he wasn’t in favor of sending them anything until all the Russia-investigation materials related to (Hillary) Clinton and Biden had been turned over.”
This linkage was already known and Bolton's statement is additive to what was already disclosed in the summary transcript and from multiple witnesses with knowledge who testified under oath. The fact that Trumpsters never accepted the obvious is just something that has to be expected.
Trump Asks for China to Help his Reelection Efforts:
Another new revelation was that Trump requested China's help in his reelection.
Bolton: "In exchange (for concessions on tariff rates), Trump asked merely for some increases in Chinese farm-product purchases, to help with the crucial farm-state vote If that could be agreed, all the U.S. tariffs would be reduced. It was breathtaking."
Trump Wanted to Interfere in SDNY Investigation of a Turkish Bank at the Request of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
Bolton: "And the president said to Erdoğan at one point, 'Look, those prosecutors in New York are Obama people. Wait till I get my people in, and then we'll take care of this.’”
Bolton says Trump proposal to intervene in SDNY investigation of Turkish bank felt 'like obstruction of justice to me' | TheHill
++
Trump is inciting violence against BLM protestors:
'It got ugly': What happened when Black Lives Matter protests came to small town Ohio Trumpsters turned up at a small, peaceful BLM rally with automatic weapons and clubs. "Some yelled at the protesters to leave, blocked their way when they were marching and pushed and shoved them to the ground. A man with a Confederate flag covering his face ripped up one of the protesters’ signs while the crowd cheered."
Bethel Black Lives Matter: 10 incidents under investigation
As protests spread to small-town America, militia groups respond with armed intimidation and online threats - The Washington Post
A driver hit Black Lives Matter protesters. It was a neighboring town’s mayor, protesters say.
In Klamath Falls, Oregon, victory declared over antifa, which never showed up
Wilmington, N.C., police officers fired for racist talk, suggesting killing black people - The Washington Post
++++
Trump Firing of SNDY Federal Prosecutor Geoffrey Berman:
Before his ouster, U.S. attorney refused to join Justice Dept. rebuke of New York mayor - The Washington Post Trump wanted Berman to criticize the New York's mayor coronavirus restrictions.
Berman relents, leaves post as US attorney for the Southern District of New York after taking stand against firing
Among offices for Federal prosecutors, the Southern District of New York is the most important. A number of pending matters relating to Trump or Trump associates are being handled in that office.
I discussed this firing and its possible political overtones in my last post and in a recent comment.
Barr initially claimed in an official DOJ document that Berman had voluntarily left his position, which was false. Attorney General William P. Barr on the Nomination of Jay Clayton to Serve as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York | OPA | Department of Justice
Barr had no authority to fire Berman, who was appointed by the federal court judges in that district. Under statute, Berman arguably could only be relieved once his replacement was confirmed by the Senate or a replacement was approved by the judges who appointed Berman. 28 U.S. Code § 546 - Vacancies
After Berman replied that he had not resigned, further claiming that Barr's effort to replace him with a NJ federal prosecutor was illegal, which it was, Barr then sent another letter stating that Trump had fired Berman.
Donald later claimed he had nothing to do with it, which is just another piece of evidence supporting the obvious conclusion that he is a pure pathological liar with no credibility. Trump: 'I'm not involved' in SDNY's Geoffrey Berman firing - Business Insider
Nonetheless, Berman decided to resign since Barr allowed his second in command Audrey Strauss, a career prosecutor, to replace him rather than Barr's hand picked guy. It would be a bold move now for Trump and Barr to replace Ms. Strauss with a Trump political appointee.
+++
Trump: "But Mexico is in fact, you will soon find out, paying for the wall, okay? … The wall is ultimately and very nicely being paid for by Mexico." PolitiFact | Fact-checking Donald Trump's campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey on 1/28/20
“Everybody, soon or late, sits down at a banquet of consequences.” Robert Louis Stevenson Quotes (Author of Treasure Island)
 |
| 6/25/20 |
 |
| 6/26/20 |
New U.S. coronavirus cases hit 45,242 for biggest one-day increase of pandemic - Reuters (6/27)
Doctor Don's Miracle Cure for Covid-19:
Coronavirus: NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine after finding no benefit to patients (6/20/20);
U.S. halts test of Trump-touted hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 patients
NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine | National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Hydroxychloroquine no longer used at local hospitals to treat COVID-19 | Las Vegas Review-Journal
So when will Donald acknowledge that he was touting a drug that was potentially harmful and had no benefit? The answer is never.
Will the Fox News personalities Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham apologize for recommending this potentially harmful drug to their listeners?
This is a summary of statements made by Fox News personalities:
1, Jesse Waters: Waters denounced the "cherry-picking snakes, liars and backstabbing hypocrites” who have prevented people from taking the drug. No one in the media has prevented anyone from taking the drug, of course, but that is irrelevant in TrumpWorld. Any doctor can prescribe it after the FDA gave emergency approval for off label use.
2. Tucker Carlson: Referring to media outlets that report factual information about this drug, Carlson had this to say: “It is probably the most shameful thing I, as someone who has done this for 20 years, has ever seen. It’s making a lot of us ashamed to work in the same profession as those people. So reckless and wrong in the middle of a pandemic, it really is, for real.”
3. Laura Ingraham: “After hearing all of the stories where hydroxychloroquine is credited with saving lives, it is amazing that the left and the medical establishment is still in total denial about the potential of these decades-old drugs.” If anyone recovers who takes the drug, that is proof in TrumpWorld that the drug caused the recovery.
Ingraham refers to scientific and medical evidence that contradicts her delusions as "drivel". Hydroxychloroquine truther Laura Ingraham urges Trump campaign to ignore "alarmist COVID drivel" | Salon.com (6/17/20 article); Fox's Laura Ingraham mocks 'The Medical Deep State' and 'science' - New York Daily News (6/16/20); Fox News host claims ‘no real scientific basis’ to social distancing. True or false? - HoustonChronicle.com She is incapable of seeing any difference between packing an enclosed arena with no social distancing and limited mask wearing and an outdoor protest where there was substantial mask wearing and social distancing.
4. Sean Hannity: The drug is showing success “in spite of what the mob and the media is telling you.”
These individuals need a red flashing banner at the bottom of a TV screen saying: "Warning: Listening to Me is Dangerous to Your Health".
Fox News Stars Trumpeted a Malaria Drug-The New York Times; From Fox News, a big dose of dumb on hydroxychloroquine - The Washington Post
New research explores how conservative media misinformation may have intensified coronavirus - The Washington Post
There never was any scientific reason to believe that the Duck's miracle drug was effective but that did not stop him and his talking heads at Fox "news" from touting it and continuing to do so even after evidence proved that it was potentially harmful to some people and had no benefit.
Ousted coronavirus whistleblower Dr. Rick Bright says Trump administration is 'on the warpath' against him Dr. Bright disagreed with Doctor Don's pumping of hydroxychloroquine, so he had to go.
++
Donald's Mass COVID-19 Infection Event in Tulsa:
How to empty seat - YouTube
Inside the Cult of Trump, His Rallies Are Church and He Is the Gospel | Vanity Fair
Six members of Trump's campaign team test positive for COVID-19 Two more later tested positive. Two more Trump staffers test positive for coronavirus after Tulsa rally
Oklahoma reporter who attended Trump's Tulsa rally tests positive for coronavirus
President Trump's Tulsa Rally Highlights His Record of Racial Division
Top members of coronavirus task force advised against Trump's Tulsa rally The bottom line is Donald could care less whether people become infected at his rally, transmit the infection to others, and there are deaths associated with attendance. And, I doubt that the Trumpsters care either viewing it as their constitutional right to become infected and to infect others.
So is Donald really pro-life when he encourages his followers to avoid wearing masks and to ignore social distancing guidelines, which is what actually happened at his Tulsa's rally?
Tulsa Sets Coronavirus Case Record As Trump Rallygoers Dispute Health Risks
Oklahoma coronavirus: COVID-19 cases rise ahead of Trump Tulsa rally
Donald's campaign claimed that more than a million people signed up for tickets. Trump campaign touts 1 million ticket requests for Tulsa rally | Fox News
 |
| Pascale is Trump's Campaign Manager |
Tulsa fire department says just under 6,200 people attended Trump rally - Axios The Trump Campaign claimed there was over 12K. Who would you believe, a Trump campaign official or the Tulsa Fire Marshall?
There was no social distancing inside the area and most people were not wearing masks. I would estimate that less than 10% of attendees were wearing a mask Many republicans view mask wearing as an interference in their personal freedom to infect as many as people as possible. Freedom without responsibility is their motto.
Trump falsely blamed a small group of peaceful BLM protestors for the low attendance.
During the speech, Trump claimed that he ordered slower coronavirus testing. Donald: “When you do testing to that extent, you will find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’”
In TrumpWorld, if you do not test, there would be no new infections. Trump’s Tulsa rally: He says he wanted to 'slow the testing down' on COVID-19 and other takeaways Several of the Duck's advisors including his Press Secretary and Peter Navarro claimed he was joking which is a common excuse now for outrageous Trump statements and claims.
When asked whether he was joking, Trump replied "I don't kid". ‘I don’t kid’: Trump says he wasn’t joking about slowing coronavirus testing - POLITICO Last Friday, he changed his tune claiming that he was being sarcastic.
Lawmakers protest as feds pull support from 4 Harris County COVID testing sites - HoustonChronicle.com
Coronavirus: Federal government to end funding some Covid-19 test sites
Donald also castigated protestors who wanted to remove statutes of Confederate, referring to that effort as a "desecration" and a demolishment of "our heritage". The Trumpsters cheered that a U.S. President wants praise traitors who fought against the United States in an effort to preserve slavery.
He also used a racial slur to refer to the virus.
The Duck also aired his usual grievances.
He rambled for 101 minutes including several minutes devoted to defending his feeble walk down that ramp at West Point.
With ‘kung flu,’ ‘thugs,’ and ‘our heritage,’ Trump leans on racial grievance as he reaches for a campaign reset
Don the Authoritarian threatened protestors who might show up for his rally:
Fact check: Trump's Tulsa rally littered with familiar false claims - CNN
Trump 'furious' about 'underwhelming' crowd at Tulsa rally
PolitiFact | Trump wrongly claims Biden wants to prosecute churchgoers and does not want to prosecute church burners
PolitiFact | The Stump Speech Analyzer: Donald Trump in Tulsa
PolitiFact | Donald Trump’s Pants on Fire claim that nobody had heard of Juneteenth
++++
Donald's Mass Infection Rally in Arizona-6/23/20:
Donald held another indoor rally in Arizona that is currently experiencing a surge in Covid-19 infections. President Donald Trump visits Arizona as COVID-19 cases rise; ADHS - Data Dashboard (2,196 new cases the day before this event) The state also experienced a surge in hospitalizations last Sunday and Monday. Arizona COVID-19 Hospitalizations Soar Ahead of Phoenix Trump Student Rally
How Arizona ‘lost control of the epidemic’
The rally was at the Dream City Church and was attended by about 3K mostly young students. The rally was sponsored by Students for Trump, a subgroup of Turning Point Action.
Mask wearing was optional and few attendees wore one.
I would estimate that about 1 in 30 attendees were wearing a mask.
Social distancing was not practiced anywhere in the packed, enclosed space.
Hundreds line up hours ahead of President Trump's rally in north Phoenix | Arizona News | azfamily.com
Two church officials, senior pastor, Luke Barnett and Chief Operations Officer Brendon Zastrow, claimed hat they had an air purification system that would kill 99.9 % of Covid-19. Can air filtration stop coronavirus at a Trump rally in Phoenix? Experts doubt it. ("It's the kind of claim that has little basis in reality, experts say. Both the ionization technology on which the system is based, as well as the way it works, are of limited effectiveness."); Phoenix Megachurch Hosting Trump Rally Says It Has a Special Virus-Killing Air System | Phoenix New Times; Ahead of Trump Visit, Church Makes Unproven Claim of Virus-Killing Technology - The New York Times
To attend the event students had to first sign this release:
"By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present.
By attending this convention, you and any guest voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Turning Point Action, their affiliates, Dream City Church, employees, agents, contractors, or volunteers liable for any illness or injury."
++
Supreme Court Ruling on DACA-Temporary Setback For Donald and the GOP in their Efforts to Deport the Dreamers:
Donald and the republican party want to deport the DACA children to their country of origin.
Notwithstanding the temporary setback handed to them by the Supreme Court, the GOP will move quickly to accomplish their overriding goal to repeal DACA and to deport those youngsters who entered the U.S. illegally long ago as children.
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s bid to end DACA, a win for undocumented ‘Dreamers’
While the Supreme Court decision gives the DACA children a temporary reprieve from deportation by the republicans, Donald framed the issue as a major campaign issue that placed fundamental constitutional rights at risk:
The main part of the republican base wants to send these kids back to their countries of origin, even though they are completely Americanized and have been for years. The problem for republican politicians is that a significant minority of their members actually want to provide a path to citizenship for the Dreamers.
The message that you will hear from republican politicians will claim that DACA needs to be ended, giving some lame excuse, but something will done for the Dreamers as part of a comprehensive immigration policy that funds the wall along the border, reduces legal immigration, establishes a new merit based system; eliminates most chained migration, and provides some temporary protection to the Dreamers. The Trump Immigration Plan: A Lopsided Proposal; What You Need to Know About DACA and the ‘Dreamers’ - The Washington Post In short, the republicans are holding the DACA children as hostage to secure Democrat concessions that are anathema to them.
DACA ‘unlawful’ despite Supreme Court ruling, acting Homeland Security chief says - POLITICO
++
Bolton's Book:
A better book to read, which should be required reading for all republicans, is this one: Donald Trump and His Assault on Truth: The President's Falsehoods, Misleading Claims and Flat-Out Lies eBook: Staff, The Washington Post Fact Checker: Kindle Store
The republican district court judge Royce Lambert refused to enjoin the release of Bolton's book.
In Lambert's opinion, the book had already been distributed too widely for the government to show irreparable harm, a necessary showing for a temporary injunction.
Judge Lambert then inappropriately IMO made preliminary findings on the merits that indicated hostility to Bolton and a too eager willingness to accept the government's contention that the book contained classified information. Opinion.pdf
The reasons for my opinion are (1) the book was cleared by the official responsible for scrubbing any classified information out of it, (2) Trump political appointees then claimed that this official made the incorrect decision and (3) the reasons why Trump political appointees would disagree with the unbiased professional who clear the book are obvious given the contents of the book. .
The recent political appointee and Trump sycophant Robert C. O'Brien ordered another review and ordered the Trump loyalist, Michael T. Ellis, a former aide to Devin Nunes, to conduct the inquiry. There was no question what the result of that review would be. Both O'Brien and Ellis are lawyers and 100% pure Trumpsters. Michael Ellis (Trump administration official) - Wikipedia, see also 2 White House Officials Helped Give Nunes Intelligence Reports-The New York Times (one of those officials was Michael T. Ellis)
An impartial and non-partisan judge would have been highly suspicious of this new claim of classified material originating from Trump's political loyalists with no national security credentials. Royce Lambert is not impartial IMO.
And it is important to realize that his opinion on the merits was superfluous once he decided that the government could not prove irreparable harm. His opinion indicated that he had made up his mind on the merits without hearing all of the evidence and having the parties conduct discovery and detailed cross examination of witnesses.
Bolton's book will not change any minds. It is hardly news to those opposed to Demagogue Don that he is fond of dictators; impulsive and erratic; confirms his ignorance on a daily basis; is unwilling to learn; and was mocked by those closest to him.
Trump Approves of China Isolating Uighur Muslims in Gulags:
Perhaps the most revealing and new piece of information is Trump's willingness to approve China's gulags for the Uighur Muslims.
Bolton: “According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do.”
Bolton alleges Trump encouraged Xi to continue with Uighur detainment camps - Axios
We knew Trump didn’t care for human rights in China. But this is a new low. - The Washington Post
Ukraine-Of Course There was a Quid Pro Quo:
Bolton: "According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do."
Bolton also confirmed that Trump expressly linked Ukraine's military aid to an investigation of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.
Bolton: On 8/20/20 , Trump "said he wasn’t in favor of sending them anything until all the Russia-investigation materials related to (Hillary) Clinton and Biden had been turned over.”
This linkage was already known and Bolton's statement is additive to what was already disclosed in the summary transcript and from multiple witnesses with knowledge who testified under oath. The fact that Trumpsters never accepted the obvious is just something that has to be expected.
Trump Asks for China to Help his Reelection Efforts:
Another new revelation was that Trump requested China's help in his reelection.
Bolton: "In exchange (for concessions on tariff rates), Trump asked merely for some increases in Chinese farm-product purchases, to help with the crucial farm-state vote If that could be agreed, all the U.S. tariffs would be reduced. It was breathtaking."
Trump Wanted to Interfere in SDNY Investigation of a Turkish Bank at the Request of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
Bolton: "And the president said to Erdoğan at one point, 'Look, those prosecutors in New York are Obama people. Wait till I get my people in, and then we'll take care of this.’”
Bolton says Trump proposal to intervene in SDNY investigation of Turkish bank felt 'like obstruction of justice to me' | TheHill
++
Trump is inciting violence against BLM protestors:
'It got ugly': What happened when Black Lives Matter protests came to small town Ohio Trumpsters turned up at a small, peaceful BLM rally with automatic weapons and clubs. "Some yelled at the protesters to leave, blocked their way when they were marching and pushed and shoved them to the ground. A man with a Confederate flag covering his face ripped up one of the protesters’ signs while the crowd cheered."
Bethel Black Lives Matter: 10 incidents under investigation
As protests spread to small-town America, militia groups respond with armed intimidation and online threats - The Washington Post
A driver hit Black Lives Matter protesters. It was a neighboring town’s mayor, protesters say.
In Klamath Falls, Oregon, victory declared over antifa, which never showed up
Wilmington, N.C., police officers fired for racist talk, suggesting killing black people - The Washington Post
++++
Trump Firing of SNDY Federal Prosecutor Geoffrey Berman:
Before his ouster, U.S. attorney refused to join Justice Dept. rebuke of New York mayor - The Washington Post Trump wanted Berman to criticize the New York's mayor coronavirus restrictions.
Berman relents, leaves post as US attorney for the Southern District of New York after taking stand against firing
Among offices for Federal prosecutors, the Southern District of New York is the most important. A number of pending matters relating to Trump or Trump associates are being handled in that office.
I discussed this firing and its possible political overtones in my last post and in a recent comment.
Barr initially claimed in an official DOJ document that Berman had voluntarily left his position, which was false. Attorney General William P. Barr on the Nomination of Jay Clayton to Serve as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York | OPA | Department of Justice
Barr had no authority to fire Berman, who was appointed by the federal court judges in that district. Under statute, Berman arguably could only be relieved once his replacement was confirmed by the Senate or a replacement was approved by the judges who appointed Berman. 28 U.S. Code § 546 - Vacancies
After Berman replied that he had not resigned, further claiming that Barr's effort to replace him with a NJ federal prosecutor was illegal, which it was, Barr then sent another letter stating that Trump had fired Berman.
Donald later claimed he had nothing to do with it, which is just another piece of evidence supporting the obvious conclusion that he is a pure pathological liar with no credibility. Trump: 'I'm not involved' in SDNY's Geoffrey Berman firing - Business Insider
Nonetheless, Berman decided to resign since Barr allowed his second in command Audrey Strauss, a career prosecutor, to replace him rather than Barr's hand picked guy. It would be a bold move now for Trump and Barr to replace Ms. Strauss with a Trump political appointee.
+++
Trump: "But Mexico is in fact, you will soon find out, paying for the wall, okay? … The wall is ultimately and very nicely being paid for by Mexico." PolitiFact | Fact-checking Donald Trump's campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey on 1/28/20
Trump says Obama didn't reform policing-but he did. Then the president ditched it.
Trump Wrong on Obama-Biden Actions on Policing- FactCheck.org Donald just makes stuff up, realizing that the Trumpsters do not know the facts and will accept his false information and narratives without question or challenge.
Pence's False Claims About Trump's Handling of Coronavirus- FactCheck.org
Trump Wrong on Obama-Biden Actions on Policing- FactCheck.org Donald just makes stuff up, realizing that the Trumpsters do not know the facts and will accept his false information and narratives without question or challenge.
Pence's False Claims About Trump's Handling of Coronavirus- FactCheck.org
Michael Pack, a colleague of Steve Bannon, installs Trump loyalists to leadership posts, memo says; New directors at federal media agency have ties to anti-LGBT groups Trump is turning the Voice of America into Trump TV. He apparently thinks that will improve his image overseas. It will not. How the world sees the U.S. and Trump in 10 charts | Pew Research Center He does have significant favorability ratings among the far right in Europe including the neo-Nazis.
The Voice of America Will Sound Like Trump - The Atlantic This is worth reading. The lessons taught by authoritarians over the centuries are being implemented by the GOP.
INSIDE TRUMPS' BITTER BATTLE Nephew's ailing baby caught in the middle - New York Daily News Donald, his brother Robert and his sister Maryanne terminated medical coverage for their nephew's child William who was born with cerebral palsy. William was the grandson of Fred Trump Jr., Donald's brother, who died of alcoholism. Maryanne Trump Barry is a lawyer who was formerly a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Family of Donald Trump - Wikipedia
Trump mocked his father's Alzheimer's, niece Mary to say in new book - Business Insider.
PolitiFact | Trump shares manipulated toddler video targeting CNN
Ken Burns: Confederate statues celebrate a false narrative - YouTube
The Michael Flynn court ruling by Judge Neomi Rao is astonishingly bad - Vox The decision by Judge Rao, appointed by Trump, is a political one rather than based on sound legal reasoning. Rao was joined in her opinion by another republican judge Karen Henderson.
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to strike down Obamacare
Mary Trump once stood up to her uncle Donald. Now her book describes a ‘nightmare’ of family dysfunction. - The Washington Post
Russia offered Afghan militants bounties to kill U.S. troops: report - MarketWatch That article is based on a NYT article published yesterday. Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops, Intelligence Says - The New York Times Trump was briefed on this conclusion in March but has not responded. The NYT is worth an online subscription (around $12+ per month as I recall).
The Voice of America Will Sound Like Trump - The Atlantic This is worth reading. The lessons taught by authoritarians over the centuries are being implemented by the GOP.
INSIDE TRUMPS' BITTER BATTLE Nephew's ailing baby caught in the middle - New York Daily News Donald, his brother Robert and his sister Maryanne terminated medical coverage for their nephew's child William who was born with cerebral palsy. William was the grandson of Fred Trump Jr., Donald's brother, who died of alcoholism. Maryanne Trump Barry is a lawyer who was formerly a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Family of Donald Trump - Wikipedia
Trump mocked his father's Alzheimer's, niece Mary to say in new book - Business Insider.
PolitiFact | Trump shares manipulated toddler video targeting CNN
Ken Burns: Confederate statues celebrate a false narrative - YouTube
The Michael Flynn court ruling by Judge Neomi Rao is astonishingly bad - Vox The decision by Judge Rao, appointed by Trump, is a political one rather than based on sound legal reasoning. Rao was joined in her opinion by another republican judge Karen Henderson.
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to strike down Obamacare
Mary Trump once stood up to her uncle Donald. Now her book describes a ‘nightmare’ of family dysfunction. - The Washington Post
Russia offered Afghan militants bounties to kill U.S. troops: report - MarketWatch That article is based on a NYT article published yesterday. Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops, Intelligence Says - The New York Times Trump was briefed on this conclusion in March but has not responded. The NYT is worth an online subscription (around $12+ per month as I recall).
++++++
Covid 19 Update:
 |
| as of 6/26/20 |
See, Remarks by President Trump at a Turning Point Action Address to Young Americans | The White House (The transcript of Donald' speech consists of pure demagoguery, worthless drivel, false claims, with Donald generally turning everything upside down. It is sad that anyone would risk their life and the lives of others to listen this crap)
Fact check: As pandemic situation worsens, Pence paints a deceptively rosy picture
N.Y., N.J. and Conn. to Begin Coronavirus Travel Quarantine for Hot Spot States
Family shaken after 18 relatives test positive for COVID-19 after birthday party
Study: Asymptomatic Cases Of COVID-19 Might Have Temporary Lung Damage-NPR
Expert: Coronavirus spread unlikely to slow in summer or fall - Axios The expert is Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm stated that the first wave has not slowed down. The better description is not to describe the pandemic in terms of waves but a forest fire that consumes whatever wood is in its path. Osterholm: Forget waves, Covid-19 pandemic is a 'forest fire' - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal
Bars, Strip Clubs and Churches: U.S. Virus Outbreaks Enter Unwieldy Phase
Coronavirus antibodies may last only 2 to 3 months after infection, study suggests
U.S. reports his number of daily coronavirus cases since May 1 (6/21/20)
Study suggests most Covid-19 cases went undetected - CNN (estimates that 80% of Covid-19 cases were undetected in March)
Republican sheriffs are refusing to enforce mask wearing policies. The Lewis County Sheriff in Washington, Robert Sansa, told a crowd "Don't be a sheep" by wearing a mask. 'Don’t be a sheep.' A southwest Washington sheriff’s response to governor’s mask order | NW News Network The only known cure for refusals to wear masks is a brain transplant, and it is unlikely that those who refuse to wear a mask in public will consent to that procedure.
The republican congressman Mark Green of Tennessee, who is the representative from my district, is leading the charge against wearing masks on Capital Hill. Citing 'irrational fears' of killer pandemic, Republicans fight face masks in Congress Green said he could “cite many other professionals” who advise against wearing protective face coverings, but declined to name one.
Trump Approval Hits New Low, He Trails Biden In Matchup: Poll : NPR Trump's strong disapproval rating is historic: "49% of voters "strongly disapprove" of the job Trump is doing. That kind of intensity of disapproval is a record never before seen for this president or any past one":
+++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.
In Items 1 and 2 below, I discuss buying ordinary shares of two Canadian companies that are priced in USDs and traded on the dark U.S. Grey Market.
Symbols ending in "F" denote a foreign stock's ordinary shares rather than an ADR.
Many brokers do not display bid and ask quotes in this dark market. The investor has to take the current price on a foreign exchange and then convert the foreign currency price into USDs before placing a limit order. Shares are thinly traded and some brokers may tack on additional fees and commissions to the trade.
I will only buy Canadian stocks traded in this market using Schwab. Why? Schwab's quote box will show the Canadian price already converted into USDs and this broker will allow me to trade these securities commission free. Some other brokers will charge as much as $50 even though their commission rate is zero for other U.S. exchange traded securities.
In Items 1 and 2 below, I discuss buying ordinary shares of two Canadian companies that are priced in USDs and traded on the dark U.S. Grey Market.
Symbols ending in "F" denote a foreign stock's ordinary shares rather than an ADR.
Many brokers do not display bid and ask quotes in this dark market. The investor has to take the current price on a foreign exchange and then convert the foreign currency price into USDs before placing a limit order. Shares are thinly traded and some brokers may tack on additional fees and commissions to the trade.
I will only buy Canadian stocks traded in this market using Schwab. Why? Schwab's quote box will show the Canadian price already converted into USDs and this broker will allow me to trade these securities commission free. Some other brokers will charge as much as $50 even though their commission rate is zero for other U.S. exchange traded securities.
1. Added 100 NWHUF at US$6.83:
Website: NorthWest Healthcare Properties- A Canadian REIT
Closing Price 6/26/20: NWHUF US$7.75 -$0.07 -0.86%
Northwest is the largest private owner of healthcare facilities in Canada, consisting of 175 buildings with approximately 4 million square feet. Properties & Leasing in Canada
This company also owns healthcare related properties in Australia, Brazil, Germany, Netherlands and New Zealand. The largest concentration outside of Canada is in Australia.
Properties & Leasing in Australia and New Zealand
Properties & Leasing in Germany
Properties & Leasing in the Netherlands
Properties & Leasing in Brazil
Property Map
I view this REIT as a potential acquisition candidate for a larger U.S. healthcare REIT that wishes to expand internationally.
Current Position: 1,000 units consisting of 400 NWHUF and 600 NWH.UN.CA
Last Discussion: Item # 3.A. Added 50 NWHUF at US$8.3; 50 at US$8.5; 50 at US$6.75 and 50 at US$5.57 (4/4/20 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at C$.06667 per unit (C$.8 annually)
Last Ex Distribution Date: 5/28/20 (shortly after this purchase)
Next Ex Distribution Date: Monday 6/29/20
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces June 2020 Distribution
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
Strategic Asset Sales:
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1. A. Sold 1000 at C$10.68 (/7/31/17)(profit after CAD to USD conversion = US$606.31); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 NWHUF at US$8.79 (8/21/17 Post)
Next Ex Distribution Date: Monday 6/29/20
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Announces June 2020 Distribution
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
2. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.89:
Quote: TransAlta Renewables Inc. (TRSWF)
Website: TransAlta Renewables
Closing Price 6/26/20: TRSWF: US$10.00 -$0.20 -1.96%
TRSWF is the USD priced shares that are traded in the U.S. Grey Market.
Website: TransAlta Renewables
Closing Price 6/26/20: TRSWF: US$10.00 -$0.20 -1.96%
TRSWF is the USD priced shares that are traded in the U.S. Grey Market.
The company owns wind, solar, hydro and gas generating facilities. Facilities in Operation/Development | TransAlta Renewables
Last TRSWF Elimination: Item # 3. B. Sold 100 TRSWF at US$10.36 (5/5/19 Post) (profit snapshot = US$75.74)-Item # 2.B. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.55-Used Commission Schwab Free Trade (6/18/18 Post)
I also currently own 100 shares priced in CADs and traded in Toronto: Item # 1 Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (4/11/20 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at C$.07833 per share (C$.94 annually)
TransAlta Renewables Declares Dividends
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20 (owned as of )
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): TransAlta Renewables Reports First Quarter 2020 Results
Item # 1 Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$17.92(3/14/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$511)-Item # 2 Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.79 (9/14/19 Post);
Item # 3. B. Sold 150 RNW:CA at C$13.97 (profit snapshot = C$163.5)- Item # 2.A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (6/18/18 Post), Item #2.A. Bought 50 RNW:C at C$12.45 (7/12/18 Post)
Realized to Date Profit Totals:
+ US$75.74
+C$674.5
+C$674.5
3. Bought 100 BXMX at $11:
Quote: BXMX | Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund Overview-A CEF
Closing Price 6/26/20: BXMX $10.75 -$0.11 -1.01%
Sponsor's website: BXMX - Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund
This fund seeks "an attractive total return with less volatility than the S & P 500 Index". The fund sells index call options "covering approximately 100% of the Fund's equity portfolio value." (emphasis added)
Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund (shareholder report for the period ending 12/31/19) A list of holdings starts at page 27. As of 12/31/19, the cost of the fund's investment was $600.477+M with a value of $1.422+B (page 34)
Data Date of 5/21/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.22
Closing Market Price: $10.98
Discount: -10.31%
Sourced from BXMX-CEF Connect
Last Quarterly Dividend: $.23225 ($.93 annually)
The dividend is substantially supported by ROC. Understanding Return of Capital
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/20 (owned as of)
4. Small Ball:
A. Started FDN-Bought 1 at $166; 1 at $163.3:
Quote: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price 6/26/20: FDN $167.62 -$3.43 -2.01%
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN)
Expense Ratio: .52%
I put 1 or 2 shares in 4 accounts for potential participation in wave buying programs when the price craters again.
Maximum Position This Account: 20 shares
Maximum Position All Accounts: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Positions:
One Year Chart:
B. Restarted ONB-Bought 10 at $12.71:
A. Started FDN-Bought 1 at $166; 1 at $163.3:
Quote: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price 6/26/20: FDN $167.62 -$3.43 -2.01%
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN)
Expense Ratio: .52%
I put 1 or 2 shares in 4 accounts for potential participation in wave buying programs when the price craters again.
Maximum Position This Account: 20 shares
Maximum Position All Accounts: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Positions:
 |
| Bungee Jumper |
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Closing Price 6/26/20: ONB $12.86 $-0.59 -4.39%
I am extremely cautious on regional bank stock purchases. I am buying these stocks near 10-11 year lows. There are good reasons why the prices have tanked so deep. The two main reasons are an accelerations in non-performing loans due the Covid-19 recession and net interest margin suppression likely to continue for an extended period. ONB, for example, traded at over $13 in April 2010.
Banks were hit harder than the market indexes last Friday based on adverse news relating to the pandemic.
SEC Filings
5 Year Financials 2019 Annual Report
ONB | Old National Bancorp Analyst Estimates
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Deposit Share as of 12/31/19:
Last Elimination: Item # 4.A. Sold 10 ONB at $19.66 (7/29/18)(profit snapshot= $29.19)-Item # 1.B. Bought 10 ONB at $16.75 (2/15/18 Post) So I bought back the 10 shares at $12.71.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 ($.56 annually)
Old National Bancorp announces quarterly cash dividend
Last Ex Dividend: 5/29/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $12.71: 4.41%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Old National reports 1st quarter earnings, announces $1.2 million commitment to COVID-19 relief efforts and support programs for clients
The results were unfavorably impacted due to Covid-19 related charges.
Comparative Data Charts at St. Louis Federal Reserve:
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Other Round-Trips:
Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$312.97)
Item # 2. Averaged Down: Bought 50 ONB at $12.25-Update For Regional Bank Basket As Of 1/19/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 2. Bought 50 ONB at $13.1: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 5. Bought in Roth IRA: 50 ONB at $11.38:Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Other Round-Trip Trades:
ONB Trading Profits to Date: $786.29
Closing Price 6/26/20: ONB $12.86 $-0.59 -4.39%
I am extremely cautious on regional bank stock purchases. I am buying these stocks near 10-11 year lows. There are good reasons why the prices have tanked so deep. The two main reasons are an accelerations in non-performing loans due the Covid-19 recession and net interest margin suppression likely to continue for an extended period. ONB, for example, traded at over $13 in April 2010.
Banks were hit harder than the market indexes last Friday based on adverse news relating to the pandemic.
SEC Filings
5 Year Financials 2019 Annual Report
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Deposit Share as of 12/31/19:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 ($.56 annually)
Old National Bancorp announces quarterly cash dividend
Last Ex Dividend: 5/29/20 (owned as of)
Dividend Yield at $12.71: 4.41%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Old National reports 1st quarter earnings, announces $1.2 million commitment to COVID-19 relief efforts and support programs for clients
The results were unfavorably impacted due to Covid-19 related charges.
Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NIM")
Return on Average Equity for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROE")
Return on Average Assets for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROA")
Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NPL Ratio")
Maximum Position: 100 SharesPurchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Other Round-Trips:
Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$312.97)
Item # 2. Averaged Down: Bought 50 ONB at $12.25-Update For Regional Bank Basket As Of 1/19/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 2. Bought 50 ONB at $13.1: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 5. Bought in Roth IRA: 50 ONB at $11.38:Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 1 Sold 100 ONB at $13 (8/22/12 Post)(snapshot of profit=$99.07)-Item # 4 Bought 100 ONB at $11.85 (5/29/2012 Post)
Item # 1 Sold 50 ONB at $14.12 (7/6/13 Post)(Profit snapshot=$95.13)-Item # 4 Bought Back 50 ONB at $11.9 (5/6/13 Post)Other Round-Trip Trades:
C. Started PDM-Bought 10 at $14.5:
"Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: PDM) is an owner, manager, developer, redeveloper, and operator of high-quality, Class A office properties located primarily in select sub-markets within seven major Eastern U.S. office markets. Its geographically-diversified, over $5 billion portfolio is currently comprised of approximately 18 million square feet. The Company is a fully-integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) with local management offices in each of its major markets and is investment-grade rated by S&P Global Ratings (BBB) and Moody’s (Baa2)." The 7 markets are Atlanta, Boston, Orlando, Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Minneapolis Markets - Piedmont Office Realty Trust
Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A (PDM)
Closing Price 6/26/20: PDM $16.06 -$0.25 -1.53%
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Home - Piedmont Office Realty Trust
SEC Filings
5 Year Financial Metrics:
Page 28
Prior Trades: None
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually)
Dividend History | Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.
The dividend has been stuck at $.21 per share since it was raised from $.2 effective for the 2014 4th quarter payment. It would not be reasonable to predict meaningful dividend growth.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
"Achieved Core Funds From Operations ("Core FFO") of $0.47 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 as compared to $0.45 for the quarter ended March 31, 2019;
Reported an approximately 5.0% and 15.4% roll up in cash and accrual rents, respectively, on leases executed during the quarter for space vacant one year or less;
Reported a 2.2% and 4.2% increase in the current quarter's Same Store NOI-Cash Basis and Same Store NOI-Accrual Basis, respectively, as compared to the quarter ended March 31, 2019;
Closing Price 6/26/20: PDM $16.06 -$0.25 -1.53%
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Home - Piedmont Office Realty Trust
SEC Filings
5 Year Financial Metrics:
Prior Trades: None
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually)
Dividend History | Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.
The dividend has been stuck at $.21 per share since it was raised from $.2 effective for the 2014 4th quarter payment. It would not be reasonable to predict meaningful dividend growth.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
"Achieved Core Funds From Operations ("Core FFO") of $0.47 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 as compared to $0.45 for the quarter ended March 31, 2019;
Reported an approximately 5.0% and 15.4% roll up in cash and accrual rents, respectively, on leases executed during the quarter for space vacant one year or less;
Reported a 2.2% and 4.2% increase in the current quarter's Same Store NOI-Cash Basis and Same Store NOI-Accrual Basis, respectively, as compared to the quarter ended March 31, 2019;
Entered into a binding contract to sell 1901 Market Street in Philadelphia, PA for $360 million"
D. Restarted WSBC-Bought 5 at $19.8; 5 at $18.8:
D. Restarted WSBC-Bought 5 at $19.8; 5 at $18.8:
"WesBanco's banking subsidiary, WesBanco Bank, Inc., operates 236 financial centers in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Additionally, WesBanco operates an insurance agency, WesBanco Insurance Services, Inc., and a full service broker/dealer, WesBanco Securities, Inc."
"At December 31, 2019, Wesbanco operated 236 banking offices in West Virginia, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Kentucky, southern Indiana and Maryland, of which 166 were owned and 70 were leased. Wesbanco also operated six loan production offices leased in West Virginia, Ohio, western Pennsylvania and Maryland. These leases expire at various dates through February 2050 and generally include options to renew. The Bank also owns several regional headquarters buildings in various markets, most of which also house a banking office and/or certain back office functions."
"The main office of Wesbanco is located at 1 Bank Plaza, Wheeling, West Virginia, in a building owned by the Bank. . . At various building locations, Wesbanco rents or makes available commercial office space to unrelated businesses. Rental income totaled $1.1 million, $1.1 million and $1.3 million in 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively."
WSBC | WesBanco Inc. Analyst Estimates
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SBC SEC Filings
5 Year Financials:
SEC Filed May 2020 Investor Presentation
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share ($1.28 annually)
WesBanco, Inc. Common Stock (WSBC) Dividend History | Nasdaq There is some dividend growth since WSBC slashed the dividend from $.28 to $.14 per share in 2009.
Average Cost: $19.3
Dividend Yield at $19.3 = 6.63%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/11/20 (5 shares before and 5 after)
Last Elimination: Item # 3 Sold 50 WSBC at $20.01 (2/11/11 Post)- Item # 5 Bought 50 WSBC at $13.3 (1/16/2010 Post) The realized gain was $315.6:
Those are my only trades prior to buying this 5 share lot.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"WesBanco adopted CECL on January 1, 2020, resulting in an initial adjustment to retained earnings of $26.6 million, and a corresponding increase in the allowance for credit losses specific to loans of $38.4 million, representing an allowance to total loans coverage ratio of 0.88%, or $90.8 million, upon adoption, compared to 0.51%, or $52.4 million, at December 31, 2019 under the incurred method. The allowance for credit losses specific to loans at March 31, 2020 was $114.3 million, or 1.10% of total loans. Excluded from the allowance for credit losses and related coverage ratio are fair market value adjustments on previously acquired loans representing 0.49% of total loans. The increase in the allowance and related provision for credit losses was related to the significant deterioration in the macroeconomic forecast in late-March, primarily driven by the negative forecasted economic impacts of COVID-19. The forecast, based upon nationally-recognized published economic data through March 31, 2020, is primarily driven by national unemployment and interest rate spreads."
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
E. Started ORCC-Bought 10 at $12.67; 1 at $12.59; 5 at $12.27; 5 at $11.95 :
Quote Owl Rock Capital Corp. (ORCC)- A BDC
Closing Price 6/26/20: ORCC $12.50 -$0.03 -0.24%
"On July 22, 2019, the Company closed its initial public offering ("IPO"), issuing 10 million shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $15.30 per share, and on August 2, 2019, the underwriters exercised their option to purchase an additional 1.5 million shares of common stock at a purchase price of $15.30 per share."
ORCC SEC Filings
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 (investments listed starting at page 3)
Management: External
Average Cost Per share: $12.37 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share which includes a special dividend of $.08 per share
Dividend Yield at Regular Dividend ($.31) = 10.02%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
OWL Rock $1K Par Value Bonds (currently rated Baa3/BBB-):
5.25% SU Maturing on 4/15/24
4% SU Maturing on 3/30/25
3.75% SU Maturing on 7/22/2025
I will take a look at these bonds when and if they crash in price again as they did in March 2020.
F. Started CSWC-Bought 10 at $13.3:
Quote: Capital Southwest Corp. (CSWC) - A BDC
Closing Price 6/26/20: CSWC $13.36 +$0.14 +1.06%
Management: Internal
Website: Capital Southwest
CSWC SEC Filings
5 Year Financials Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 3/31/20
Dividend: Quarterly at $.51 per share ($2.04 annually), which includes a special dividend of $.10 per share.
Dividends - CSWC Capital Southwest
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20 (owned as of)
Next Ex Dividend Date: 9/30/20
2019 Dividend Tax Classifications:
3/31/20: $15.13
12/31/19 $16.74
3/31/19: $18.62
3/31/18: $19.08
3/31/17: $17.80
3/31/16: $17.34
It remains to be seen whether the loan value markdowns reflected in recent net asset value per share trends turn into permanent loan losses.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Capital Southwest Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2020 and Announces Total Dividends of $0.51 Per Share for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2020
"During the year ended March 31, 2020, the Company repurchased 794,180 shares of common stock at an average price of $11.57 per share, including commissions paid. All of the share buyback activity for the fiscal year occurred during the quarter ended March 31, 2020."
As of 3/31/20, CSWC "had four debt investments on non-accrual status, which comprised of approximately 3.3% of our total investment portfolio's fair value and approximately 5.8% of its cost. As of March 31, 2019, we had one investment on non-accrual status, which represents approximately 1.6% of our total investment portfolio's fair value and approximately 1.9% of its cost."
Capital Southwest (CSWC) CEO Bowen Diehl on Q4 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
CSWC Exchange Traded Senior Unsecured Bond:
CSWCL | Capital Southwest Corp. 5.95% Notes 12/15/22 Overview; Final Prospectus Supplement I discussed buying 10 shares in this post. Item # 3.A. Bought 10 CSWCL at $22.25 (5/16/20 Post)
CSWC $1K Par Value: Prospectus 5.375% SU $1K Par Value Maturing in 2024; FINRA Bond Detail
ATM Program:
5. Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84:
Closing Price 6/26/20: EMP $25.56 -$0.10 -0.39%
Profit Snapshot: +$15.44
Yield at Average Cost = 5.72%
Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, subcategory of EXCHANGE TRADED BONDS
This 5 share lot was part of my highest cost lot bought at $23.76. Item # 2.B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76, 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39 (4/25/20 Post)
Security: First Mortgage Bond
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 10/1/66 unless called early at issuer's option
Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 10/1/21 (asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of issuer)
Trades Flat
Next Ex Interest Date: 6/29/20
Prior EMP Round-Trips:
Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87P (5/1/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $207.92)-Item # 1.B. Bought 70 EMP at $21.76 (1/2/19 Post);
Item # 2.B. Sold 30 EMP at $24.44 (2/13/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.04)-Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EMP at $24.04-Used Commission Free Trade (5/28/18 Post)
Items 2.A and B. Sold 50 EMP at $24.97 and 30 at $24.96 (9/21/17 Post)(profit snapshots $167.52)
I am not likely to own this potentially long duration bond for long when interest rates are moving up. Currently, I view it as more likely than not that the issuer will call this bond at par value on 10/1/21 and refinance at a lower coupon.
EMP Trading Profits to Date: $464.9
6. Intermediate Term Corporate Bond Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 1 Centerpoint Energy Houston Electric 2.4% General Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/26:
Profit Snapshot : +$103.2
Item # 1.C. Bought 2 CNP Houston Electric General Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 9/1/2026 (5/17/17 Post)
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
Sold at 106.257 ($1 Commission)
YTM at 106.257 = 1.36%
At the current time, this bond is referred to as a "general mortgage" rather than a "first mortgage". A more appropriate description would be "second line". CNP Houston Electric has a superior lien bond that matures on 3/15/21. Bond Detail When that first lien bond matures, the CNP Houston Electric "general mortgage" bonds will become first lien.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
"The Dirty Little Secret of the Pandemic: Some People Are Saving a Fortune
ReplyDeleteDespite the shedding of American jobs, real disposable personal income has been on the rise"
Was on Medium. I don't subscribe so didn't read it. Not just will saving increase compared to past spending. ... but some families may have saving accruing now.
Less on clothes, gas, dinner out, entertainments, non-essential medical, travel. Increases in home utilities, home repairs outside & small inside, therapy bills from being at home with family (even happy families seem to have reached grumpy), books on Trump, election and Lincoln contributions.
I'd been wondering why the surge took so long to appear. It was supposed to be two weeks. Part of not chasing when chasing was good was expectation if there was going to be one, that it'd be sooner. THAT extra time is what gave the market room to accelerate it's climb so much farther.
It feels like it was a couple months ago, but it was only 1 to 1 1/2 month ago. The article "The Second Coronavirus Surge Is Here - The Atlantic" gave a clue.
They point out it's up to 2 weeks to get sick. Then up 2-3 weeks for #s to get into the data. Then takes time from start ICU & deaths. They still add that up to 2-3 weeks. It's like it's hard to believe it can take a 4 weeks. Or even more, since the spread hits a few people, then takes time to get to the next set of people, then time for the next.
That was where the calculations I was using were wrong. If this was coming, it was going to be in a month and up to 2 months. And will take more, to play out.
On bubbles. I agree this isn't a bubble like 1999 or 2007. The article though has some useful, but some not useful reasoning. It says more cash moved out than in, in the last few months. No specificity of when. He does some apples to grapes comparisons.
The bubble is in Fed assistance and debt. Those will blow up in some way. For now they're causing "no place else to invest" and "don't fight the fed."
Valuations aren't as high as they are random, based on lack of info.
Nike was off by so much. -51 to plus 7. That needs a lot of parsing. Are the reasons universal? If so next earnings season will hit hard. It's rare. Estimator seem to lower estimates into earnings season and every season, stock in aggregate go up.
Land: Generally, second quarter earnings will be a lot worse than the first. The question now is whether the Stock Jocks remain devoted to the Blue Sky scenario when really ugly earnings start to be released next month.
DeletePersonal income rose in April due to the stimulus checks and declined last month. Personal consumption expenditures did rise in May after plummeting in April and falling in March.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2020
The rise in PCE last month left the absolute level far below where it was in February.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mJz
I suspect that the recent surge in infections will make many consumers more cautious about spending.
This gets my attention.
ReplyDelete"Zacks Member,
On January 14th, the CEO of the world's largest asset manager announced a dramatic shift in its strategy...
Larry Fink announced that all of the active portfolios at BlackRock — which manages $7.4 trillion for its clients — would focus on ESG stocks by the end of 2020.
The demand for Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) investing is soaring. "
Land: There are a large number of ESG ETFs:
Deletehttps://www.etf.com/channels/socially-responsible
Thanks. I often don't completely agree with what they consider ESG. But I do want to go where the money flows.
DeleteThis paragraph is missing pieces:
ReplyDeleteLess on clothes, gas, dinner out, entertainments, non-essential medical, travel. Increases in home utilities, home repairs outside & small inside, BUT MORE ON therapy bills from being at home with family (even happy families seem to have reached grumpy), books on Trump, election and Lincoln contributions.
Well, I guess it's time to go up again.
ReplyDeleteSPX was at the bottom of it's current narrow trading range.
It's wearing that it makes it practically to the top in a single day. Also that end of day 2-3 $ climb is fast.
I went into the city for follow up test at the hospital. I had trouble driving. I decided it was lack of cars. I think I'm used to using the flow of traffic, to know where to turn to next. Well, that and lack of sleep. Had to get up early for me.
Interesting piece this evening by Katie Tur. Interviews showed Trump supporters hesitating because of his lack of compassion for the current situation. She's saying she's seen this in her contacts she met when she covered him in 2016 rallies, broadly enough to do a segment.
Land: Today's stock market action indicates that the Stock Jocks will not be easily dissuaded from their conviction that all will be well soon as the economy enters a V shaped recovery.
DeleteLarry Kudlow fed into that consensus opinion today.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-economy/u-s-still-poised-for-v-shaped-recovery-despite-reopening-setbacks-trump-adviser-idUSKBN2402TF
I am not sure why anyone pays attention to his forecasts.
https://money.com/trump-pick-kudlow-predictions/
He claimed the virus was under control in late February.
There was also a better than expected existing home sales report for May, even though the Y-O-Y number was still down significantly.
Trump is losing some support among those over 65, which is probably related to his Covid-19 response. His support among white women without college decrees has been falling. His strongly unfavorable rating, as I mention in the post, is at a historic high for an incumbent.
People's opinions about him are pretty fixed now, with few left that open to persuasion. He will be spending a great deal of money on ads. While that kind of spending helped in 2016, I doubt that it will make much of a difference now after people have seen him in action as President for over 3 years. His hard core support is around 40%. But one big difference now compared to 2016 is that the opposition voters are at least as motivated as his core supporters to cast ballots and will overlook Biden's shortcomings in doing so. The Bernie Bros will not be staying home in this election.
Biden told his big donors today that he plans to get rid of most of Trump's tax cuts. The corporate tax rate will be increased by Biden provided the Democrats control both the House and Senate with simple majorities.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/biden-tells-donors-he-will-end-most-of-trumps-tax-cuts.html
I may have found a secret to signing in. If I hit publish it gives an option. If I go to the top and sign in, it doesn't seem to work, if I'm signed into another gmail account.
ReplyDeleteInvestors aren't dissuaded. Also there is no where else to get value. There's also the constant reward for holding stocks.
Things are still opening up, such as NY. The rest did nothing more than close bars. Big deal economically.
Doesn't seem like economic numbers have much to do with today's rally. Just technicals. That run up at the end has to be computer driven, which would be technicals based. Humans can't create that fast a move.
I thought 3rd quarter tended to had more trouble hiding real earnings. But that 2nd quarter was usually still pretty exaggerated. I'm not convinced this market will care if 2nd quarter earnings are terrible. It's about 3 weeks to find out.
I saw a line of people to get into a clothing store today. I think TJMax. Why does anyone even need new clothes. So far, it's all zoom meetings.
There's Trump ads playing where I am. And there's no doubt about how the region will vote. So that's a waste. Maybe it will get money into the economy. That's his secret plan?
The opposition voters against Trump being motivated, is a good summary of what's happening.
I wonder when Biden's tax comments will effect the market.
The wild card that's left is whether dems take the senate. I would guess that those wall streeters who support trump, are still expecting that not to happen.
Trump is now straight up playing with white supremacy. He doesn't seem to have a way to pivot out of it. Maybe because it's his core ideology. Media says he's not an ideologue. But maybe they missed it. Bernstein's report of his phone transcripts will get more airing too.
Land: Once humans form an opinion, whether or not based on facts, there is a strong tendency to adhere to it even when the opinion is clearly inconsistent with reliable information.
DeleteIn the last poll, 81% of republicans stated they believe that Donald is honest.
Question # 11
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3664
How is it possible that anyone believes that Donald is honest?
A clear majority of republicans still believe that Obama was not born in the USA. Any fact, like his birth certificate showing that he was born in Hawaii, will not change their opinion. The inconsistent and accurate facts are just dismissed for one reason or another, frequently some conspiratorial fact free reason like Hawaii's governor is a Democrat and manufactured the fake birth certificate.
The same clinging to opinions, regardless of the contrary evidence, occurs when humans become investors. And, when the opinion is about some future event, it becomes virtually impossible to change that opinion with current facts. It is only when the future becomes the present and the V shaped recovery is nowhere to be found that non-temporary adjustments are finally made that are more consistent with reality.
A body in motion ...
ReplyDeleteYes I imagine that's a point I should take more seriously. It's the whole theory behind chasing and momentum technicals.
I've been stunned at how many people still believe Obama was born in Kenya.
I wonder if the percentage of believing conspiracy nonsense, goes up and down with better education provided? In other words is part of this failure, a US education system failure? Are other countries doing better countering when this stuff which may include Putin mythologies, come to the surface? I tend to think they are.
Land: The last poll has 72% of republicans believing Obama was not born in the U.S. The same percentage believe that Donald is a good role model for their children.
DeleteEducation will not cure stupid.
Perhaps a more significant and broader cause is the existence of Fox "news", "conservative" talk radio, and other internet outlets for fact free conspiracy theories and reality creations. Those have become far more prominent over the past two decades.
The general thrust of those media outlets is that the "mainstream media" has a liberal bias; can not be trusted to tell the truth; and any information that does not confirm the republican narratives conveyed through those outlets are Fake News. The end result is that approximately 1/2 of voters are not reachable with accurate information.
The Nasdaq 100 index continue to work better than the other indexes.
Year to date through yesterday, QQQ is up 14.66%, while SPY is down 4.40%, both measured on share price and on a total return basis.
The ETF FDN is up 20.33% and SKYY is up 21.07%. EBIZ is up 26.75%. I have discussed those ETFs in the blog.
Regional bank stocks are not working, with the ETF KRE down -34.27%, mostly justified IMO given the headwinds of NIM suppression and increasing NPLs.
The energy ETF XLE is down -36.09%. VNQ is down 14.91%. BIZD is down -25.27%. All of the above are YTD and are total return numbers which includes reinvestment of dividends.
This kind of widely disparate action will cause more institutional investors to crowd into the same limited number of stocks, taking their valuations to levels that will not be justified by future earnings except in limited exceptions.
72%? That's stunning. I had read less previously, as in a crazy high of 40%. The fairness doctrine is needed. I don't know what we as a country do about FOX et. al..
DeleteI had an exchange with someone yesterday to whom I posted CNN's article about Trump's love of Erdogan. His response was "how many people can CNN sucker?" I did not spend more time.
(I had previously been pondering why both Ilhan Omar and Trump like Erdogan so much. No similarity reasons were given. Trump supporter answers were consistent "he doesn't." So I post a link to all the ways he's counted the petals on the Erdogan daisy ("he loves me, he loves me not"))
""will cause more institutional investors to crowd into the same limited number of stocks""
A number of often used technicals depend on breath. Normally this type of action portends a crash. Currently it's almost appropriate for the market. Certain industries still exist and others are hard hit. It's not limited breath for the usual reasons. I wonder if it still means something technically.
Those are all interesting ETFs. I didn't buy here.
I had a not-great night. It reminded me, that if you set up for a trade, you have to be careful it won't be a disaster if you aren't so available for a day. (Sometime making up sleep is veeeery important, or so it feels.) I concluded it is gallbladder stones (has reason to be related to the other stuff, but is the usual treatments for gallbladder stones). In several hours online, I was able to gather a lot more info than in conversations about it in doctor's appts over the last few months. Someday medicine will be largely a decision tree, where by the time you get to the doctor, he's adding art and expertise, not explaining basics from the textbook.
There's no reaction yet from market on the new pig virus in China. Maybe if it comes, we can get Trump to wear a pig nose mask.
Land: Proverbs 26.4-5:
DeleteDo not answer a fool according to his folly,
Or you will also be like him.
Answer a fool as his folly deserves,
That he not be wise in his own eyes.
It is important to recognize that Trumpsters can not be reached with accurate information. It is entirely futile to even try.
Yep that about is it. I wasn't trying to reach a trumpster. But he came along and tried to reach me.
DeleteIn the area you are, that's pretty essential as a life-saving mantra. Given that the population is challenged just to take down a KKK statue. Though it is a nationwide problem.
DeleteSouth Gent,
ReplyDeleteWFC has piqued my interest. It's a falling knife, but a hint of Q3 dividend cut from the CEO did not damp the stock price too much today. I switched my SNV and HBAN positions at a small profit to WFC.
Here are some comments from the analysts:
- 6/30 Wells Fargo price target lowered to $29 from $35 at RBC Capital RBC Capital analyst Gerard Cassidy lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $29 from $35 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The analyst is cutting his FY20 EPS view to 67c from $1.47 to reflect the current economic conditions and also cites the company's anticipated need to cut its common dividend in Q3 amid a higher loan loss provision and lower net interest income. Cassidy further states that Wells Fargo cannot expand its balance sheet outside the Paycheck Protection Program loans whereas its peers can expand the balance sheet to partially offset the net interest
- 6/23 Raymond James analyst David Long reiterated an Underperform rating on Wells Fargo (ticker: WFC) on Wednesday. His main concern is a decline in earnings power. He predicts a 14% decline in revenue this year, followed by a 0.3% slip next year. The 2021 figure would put it in line with peers, but a predicted double-digit fall in 2020 is much more than the average 0.8% decline predicted for the group.Long also estimates that the bank’s income before setting aside money for taxes and provisions for potential band loans will tumble 27%, from $27.5 billion in 2019 to $20.2 billion in 2021. That is much higher than the 7% median decline for its peers and would mean that Wells Fargo would see “the largest decline among all of its mega and super regional bank peers over the next two years.” There are other near-term headwinds, as well, including rising credit costs, higher expenses, pressure on net interest margins, and a ceiling on its prospects. “With a still tarnished reputation challenging its ability to grow revenue and still work to do to get out from underneath regulatory consent orders, we expect fundamentals will remain challenged relative to peers.”
You have their bonds. I think the stock will still carry a higher yield after a dividend cut and you get a potential for price appreciation.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteAdditional comments from analysts:
- 6/11 Morgan Stanley trims Wells Fargo price target to $27, forecasts dividend cut Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $27 from $29 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following the bank's presentation at the firm's annual financial conference. Wells management said during the event that they are thinking about the right level for the dividend based on the run rate of pre-credit cost profitability and Graseck is cutting her dividend forecast to 30c per share from 51c starting in Q4. Recapping more generally on the presentations, Graseck noted that more banks are expecting higher reserve builds in Q2, with a few exceptions, while quoting Wells Fargo as having said it is looking for "substantial" reserve builds in Q2 that will be higher than in Q1.
- 6/3 Matt O’Connor, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, boosted his rating on Wells Fargo (ticker: WFC) to Buy. Wells Fargo shares have been lagging behind the broader sector, falling roughly 45% this year while the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) is off 27%. The bank is in the midst of a turnaround following the fake account scandal, which rocked Wells Fargo four years ago. Among the big banks, Wells Fargo is frequently listed as the one most likely to cut its dividend, given its higher payout ratio than peers. But O’Connor says these risks are largely priced in by now, and he also has faith in recently-appointed chief executive, Charlie Scharf. Even with the more bullish rating, O’Connor maintained his $34 price target, noting risks that still plague the bank, including the asset cap the Federal Reserve placed on the bank in response to the fake account scandal.
“Upside potential is less clear, but the bar has been set low and a plan is coming,” O’Connor said.
- 6/26 Merrill has a price target of $32 with Neutral rating. "... We think the market needs to brace itself for a deeper cut. Maintain Neural ....We think 15c/quarter a real possibility (low 2% yield)...WFC unlikely profitable in 2Q20...Watch the 3Q20 dividend declaration in July.
WFC declared their 3Q19 dividend on July 23rd, and expect a similar date this year"
Y: WFC will cut its dividend based on the results of the recently concluded FED stress test. If the recession lingers into the second half, more banks will follow.
DeleteI currently own only WFC short term senior unsecured debt and CDs. A few of my WFC CDs have 3%+ coupon and mature in 2021 and 2022. All of my WFC CDs pay monthly.
I did tiptoe into the common during March, buying 12 shares in 3 orders, but decided to discard them at $29.41. The lowest cost lot was bought at $25.38 (3/23/20) and the highest cost was at $28.2. I did not discuss those trades in a post.
I am not a fan of big banks in general and WFC is the one struggling the most now. If I decide to repurchase, it would have to be with a long term perspective.
Morningstar currently has a 5 star rating with a FV of $50. I do not agree.
Credit Suisse is neutral with a $40 PT.
Argus has a buy with a $40 PT, lowered from $60 in its last report.
S & P has a 3 star rating with a 12 month PT of $39.
Those PTs are possible IMO within 12 months only with a strong V shaped recovery starting in July, which causes a peak in NPLs in the second quarter.
I suspect WFC will be struggling to take a peek over $30 before year end and that is with positive economic data and significant GDP growth in the second half.
South Gent,
DeleteI think I will apply your "buy the dips & sell the rips" strategy with a small ball size.
After listening to random blurbs on CNBC about banks on various days (it's a go-to fill in the blank topic for them.)...
DeleteI came to understand that Chase Morgan is considered solid. Well-Fargo is low end of that measure. I noticed Chase went down, maybe not as much, but WF didn't have that much more of a low price for the risks that get mentioned.
I own no banks though, so buying Chase will count as diversification in my portfolio.
For trading or other reasons, WF may be the better choice for someone else.
AllianzGI Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund (AIO)
ReplyDelete$19.56 +0.29 +1.52%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/aio
AIO is a new CEF that had its IPO last November, selling shares to the public at $20:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1778114/000119312519277663/d809049d497.htm
As indicated in that prospectus, the management company compensated the fund for the underwriters' discount so the fund received all of the proceeds from the offering.
I have bought either 5 or 10 shares in four accounts using the small ball purchase strategy. I am not inclined to buy much of anything now.
The net asset value per share as of yesterday's close was at $22.03.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/AIO
Dividends are paid monthly at $.1083. The last ex dividend date was 6/10/2020.
The price collapsed during March to as low as $10.72, and I am mindful of that. I do not view the Blue Sky scenario as the most likely one.
The only way to support that payout is through capital gains.
It will probably be a few weeks before I discuss 1 of the 4 purchases made. Two of the buys were in ROTH IRA accounts.
SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the Period ending 2/28/20:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1778114/000110465920056640/a20-14854_1ncsr.htm
++
The EU has now officially barred travel from the U.S., with limited exceptions, since our nation has proven its inability to deal effectively with the ongoing pandemic. Brazil is also on the no travel list as are many other third world countries.
AIO is a CEF not an ETF? So it's more of a bond style holding than stock pieces of the companies. I owned a CEF once. Sold shortly before rates started declining. I'll keep an eye for your write up.
Delete---
On US's status as 3rd world. It's going to be a long 5 months + 2 more to take office.
There's talk of taking Trump out of office. But I don't see that going anywhere.
It is fun to watch Hannity, McConnell and Grassly trying to tell Trump, through public announcements, to de-politicize the mask.
I wonder what is driving away suburban educated white women? It's not his mask attitude. But is it being aware of people, a, dying? I would have thought that it'd be older voters that were jumping the ship.
Land: AIO is a closed end fund that owns stocks with some exposure to convertibles.
DeleteI believe Trump started to lose suburban women just with the Access Hollywood tape and his frequent derogatory comments directed at women.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106
The Access Hollywood tape was the original driver oh, but there's been a more recent flood away. Started in the last 3 months. The link talks about Fiona Hill, and possibly Trump's attitude at the women candidates. I would have thought anybody who is fleeing over that would have done so already. And that there's some new thing bothering the remainders. Maybe is handling of the Coronavirus, in conjunction with the rest.
DeleteI thought to be close ended, it had to be bonds. I need to go to investment opedia and do some reading.
DeleteLand: Closed end funds, like mutual funds, come in all flavors. Some like the one you mentioned the other day own bonds. Others own bonds and equity preferred stocks. Some are balanced funds owning bonds and stocks. Some own stocks, sometimes adding convertible preferred and convertible bonds which is the case for AIO which is a predominantly a common stock fund focusing on artificial intelligence stocks. There are CEFs that own foreign stocks, emerging market stocks and specific foreign country stocks like SWZ which owns Swiss companies like Novartis, Roche and Nestle.
DeleteIf it's holding stocks, what makes it closed-end rather than an ETF.
DeleteMore information about CEFs:
Deletehttps://www.cefa.com/Learn/Content/CEFBasics/Overview.fs
The closed end structure predates in the U.S. the open end mutual funds.
Some key differences between CEFs and mutual funds.
(1) Mutual funds are bought and sold based on the closing net asset value per share whereas CEFs trade like a stock and consequently can sell during trading hours at a premium or discount to net asset values per share.
(2) The CEF has a fixed capitalization. When an investor sells CEF shares, this not impact the funds available to the fund. A mutual fund's capital fluctuates up and down with redemptions and purchases.
(3) Closed end funds can use leverage and many are highly leveraged near or even exceeding 30%, borrowing mostly at short term rates, though some use preferred stock with fixed coupons to raise additional capital. Excessive leverage caused many to implode and go bankrupt in 1929-1932. One of the survivors from that crash is ADX.
The market is now up after Pfizer released data on its Phase 1/2 trial vaccine for Covid-19. I would not get too excited about Phase 1/2 data derived from 45 participants:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biontechs-stock-halted-pfizer-shares-jump-on-promising-covid-19-vaccine-data-2020-07-01?mod=mw_latestnews
Pfizer Inc.
$33.90 +$ 1.20 +3.67%
Last Updated: Jul 1, 2020 at 9:38 a.m. EDT
I own a few shares in 3 accounts, having discussed only some purchases in my Fidelity taxable account.
Land: See my previous comment about CEFs with a link to more information about this type of ownership structure. ETFs and mutual funds are open ended capitalizations. As people buy and sell, the money available to invests changes. The CEF has a fixed capitalization. Buying and selling CEF shares does not impact the funds available for investment.
DeleteThanks! I'll go study. The leverage factor seems important to know, so one knows to look for it in the prospectus.
DeleteA question that I ask myself everyday now is how much longer will the Stock Jocks be able to ignore the rapidly rising Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations.
ReplyDeleteThe NYT reported this morning that more than 47K new infections were reported yesterday in the U.S., with new cases up 80% in two weeks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-coronavirus-updates-new-cases-in-us-are-up-80percent-in-past-2-weeks/ar-BB16cc5e?li=BBnb7Kz
Texas reported a rapid acceleration in hospitalizations:
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article243909692.html
For me, it is not a question of deciding between absolutes, choosing between the most dire scenario and the Blue Sky one. Instead I assign various probabilities to several future scenarios and then decide how to allocate given my capital preservation and income objectives. The Stock Jocks are assigning IMO almost a 100% probability to a V shaped recovery with the virus cooperating in the push to reopen. I do not view that probability assignment as rational and consistent with currently known data.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
3,073.50 -16.70 -0.54%
Last Updated: Jul 1, 2020 at 7:21 a.m. CDT
For now at least, the Stock Jocks are dismissing the infection and hospitalization rates as immaterial noise.
All today won't be that pull back day. Now that the news is out that a press release, non peer-reviewed of 24 people had an effective result.
ReplyDeletePart of the problem with the blue sky view is that it's going to take time even if everything goes well. The economy will pay in some ways, even if this is the promised vaccine. Or one of the others is.
I have published a narrowly focused update on portfolio management that includes snapshots showing my recent cash flow into one taxable account.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/portfolio-management-cash-flow-fidelity.html
A regular post will be published next Saturday.
I will occasionally discuss how I generate cash flow in a regular post, using snapshots to illustrate the kinds of securities that are owned. The next post is already too long for this kind of discussion so I broke it out into a separate post.
Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
ReplyDelete$7.64 +$ 0.1676 +2.24%
Last Updated: Jul 2, 2020 at 10:20 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/scm
SCM is a micro cap BDC that had been paying an $.1133 share monthly dividend prior to this year. Previously, the company announced that it was transitioning to a quarterly dividend payment schedule, which was widely interpreted as signaling a dividend cut was coming due to the COVID-19 linked recession.
SCM declared its new quarterly dividend at $.25 per share, down from $.339 per share under the previous monthly penny rate over a quarter. The slash is about 26.25%.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/stellus-capital-investment-corporation-declares-second-quarter-2020-regular-dividend-of-0-25-per-share-301086487.html
I own a few SCM shares. I will be reinvesting the dividend.
++
I was not energized into ebullience by the jobs report released earlier today. Of the 4.8M new jobs, most were low paying jobs in the hospitality, leisure, food service, bars, and retail industries, the hardest hit sectors.
Some of those jobs have or will disappear again due to closures ordered by several state and local governments. The measurement period for June was mid-month, which was before the recent spike in cases.
And, it is important to keep the gains in perspective given the huge job losses experienced in March and April. The total number was at 152.5M jobs in February and at 137.802 last month.
Another headwind for overall job numbers is that state and local governments will probably have to start laying people off due to significant decreases in revenues. State and local governments allegedly had a net 45K gain in jobs during June.
As crazy as the rise was on the less than as bad as expected jobs report... I was glad to see some sobriety enter later in the day.
DeleteDidn't realize gov't was going to start laying off. I thought some aid was floating them. Meanwhile, they're adding jobs last month?
If the market climbs a little more IWM over 154, I'll start selling again.
The 11:30 dip has been holding. Maybe I'll start playing with that. Worse case, I buy at an all time high and can't get out again for years. More likely it will get me to buy into the endless V-shaped exuberance.
Land: On the need for more state and local government financial assistance, see
Deletehttps://taxfoundation.org/state-and-local-relief-package-coronavirus-relief-fund-cares-act/
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/05/26/485396/need-direct-assistance-local-governments-response-coronavirus/
Well then. There it is.
ReplyDeleteNow the market can rally. ...there must be something in those reports, it can invent rallying over...
I don't think a future aid package will go as smoothly. GOPs might sign because they're afraid of their jobs. Or might not... prickliness between sides is on the raise in Congress in the last aid discussions.
Land: Republicans have voted for over $3 trillion in stimulus packages so far this year and will probably vote for more.
DeleteThere seems to be an unwillingness among republicans to provide more aid to state and local governments.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/if-trump-curbs-new-covid-19-aid-state-and-local-governments-he-will-help-defund-police
If Hillary had won in 2016, the GOP would be united in opposition to the same stimulus packages when proposed by her.
Their opposition was unanimous in 2009 when Obama proposed a stimulus package about 1/4th the size in response to the Near Depression; and about 1/3rd of the Obama stimulus consisted of tax cuts.
All House republicans voted against the Obama stimulus in 2009:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/111-2009/h46
WIKI article on Obama stimulus in response to the Great Recession:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009
I wonder as this article says, whether Reps Senators are going to jump ship after Labor Day if Trump hasn't turned it around.
Deletehttps://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/trump-despondent-as-numbers-crater-loser-label-looms
What would that look like? Would they keep the Senate?
On stimulus, I get the impression that dem and reps are less willing to concede at this point, to get to endpoints.
The GOP has put party over country for several presidents in a row. It's one of the big danger points of our republic.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/angl-arcc-doc-duk-ebgef-eprprc-finx-jdd.html