Economy:
The government claimed that retail sales on a seasonally adjusted basis rose 17.7% in May compared to April. However, Y-O-Y sales were down 6.1% compared to May 2019. Retail Sales.pdf
The government claimed that retail sales on a seasonally adjusted basis rose 17.7% in May compared to April. However, Y-O-Y sales were down 6.1% compared to May 2019. Retail Sales.pdf
Dollar crash is almost inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns I would agree.
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.5M, vs 1.3 M estimate (the total number of workers receiving unemployment benefits was 29.1 million as of 5/30/20).
Empire State index shows stable conditions in June after two months of record declines - MarketWatch
Most Americans Say Finances Haven't Improved Under Trump | Bankrate
++++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Until there is a major stock market decline, I will limit my net dollar stock and stock fund purchases and will continue selling my highest cost lots into rallies and eliminating some positions that have met my objectives.
The net limit for each month, starting in June, will be the total amount of dividends and interest payments received in the prior month. This limit means no invasion of existing cash balances to pay for stocks and stock funds.
I am also adding 1 or 2 shares of one or more double short ETF on rally days as a hedge.
I do not yet see any evidence that the pandemic is under control in the U.S. Several states are seeing spikes in infections and hospitalizations. And, it is not like there is a quarantine wall around cities and states with rapidly increasing infection rates.
Stock-market legend Jeremy Grantham who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’ this is ‘crazy stuff’ - MarketWatch When asked what was the appropriate exposure level to U.S. equities, Grantham replied that a "good number now is zero and less than zero might not be a bad idea if you can stand that".
3M May sales fall 20%, with all business segments seeing declines - MarketWatch
Most Americans Say Finances Haven't Improved Under Trump | Bankrate
++++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Until there is a major stock market decline, I will limit my net dollar stock and stock fund purchases and will continue selling my highest cost lots into rallies and eliminating some positions that have met my objectives.
The net limit for each month, starting in June, will be the total amount of dividends and interest payments received in the prior month. This limit means no invasion of existing cash balances to pay for stocks and stock funds.
I am also adding 1 or 2 shares of one or more double short ETF on rally days as a hedge.
I do not yet see any evidence that the pandemic is under control in the U.S. Several states are seeing spikes in infections and hospitalizations. And, it is not like there is a quarantine wall around cities and states with rapidly increasing infection rates.
Stock-market legend Jeremy Grantham who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’ this is ‘crazy stuff’ - MarketWatch When asked what was the appropriate exposure level to U.S. equities, Grantham replied that a "good number now is zero and less than zero might not be a bad idea if you can stand that".
3M May sales fall 20%, with all business segments seeing declines - MarketWatch
Donald told his followers to drop Comcast Corp. (CMSCA) as their cable provider:
President Trump's tweet urging followers to drop Comcast is "an abuse of power." - CNN In an earlier campaign rally, the Trumpsters cheered when Donald threatened to destroy Comcast. His beef is that he does not like the news coverage of NBC and MSNBC, both owned by Comcast and wants to use the power of his office to punish the news organizations for their reporting.
Cloud stocks: Charts suggest rally running out of steam
President Trump's tweet urging followers to drop Comcast is "an abuse of power." - CNN In an earlier campaign rally, the Trumpsters cheered when Donald threatened to destroy Comcast. His beef is that he does not like the news coverage of NBC and MSNBC, both owned by Comcast and wants to use the power of his office to punish the news organizations for their reporting.
Cloud stocks: Charts suggest rally running out of steam
++++++
Trump:
Martin Gugino: 75-year-old Buffalo protester has a fractured skull and cannot walk Donald claimed he was a member of ANTIFA, without having any evidence, and had faked his fall:
Trumpsters were claiming that the blood running out of Mr. Gugino's ear after his head slammed against the pavement was fake and was hidden in his mask.
++
More Barr/Trump Obstruction of Justice?:
Trump's Justice Department has gone rogue under William Barr.
Last night, Barr attempted to fire Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York who had been appointed to important position by Trump. Berman has refused to step down until his replacement is confirmed by the republican controlled Senate. Barr Abruptly Seeks to Fire U.S. Attorney Who Investigated Trump Associates; Trump says SEC chief Jay Clayton to replace SDNY head Geoffrey Berman
It appears that Berman wanted to do his job and was consequently not being loyal to Donald.
Berman's office reportedly has an ongoing criminal investigation of Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani. It was the SDNY federal prosecutors who secured the conviction of Michael Cohen. It is also reported that this office is looking into possible crimes relating to whether Deutsche Bank, the only bank willing to loan money to Donald, complied with anti-money laundering and other laws.
The sudden attempt to fire Berman, just five months prior to the election, at least suggests that Barr and Trump may have wanted to smother one or more criminal prosecutions and/or investigations that could damage his reelection.
If Biden wins in November, he will fire whoever is appointed and confirmed to replace Berman. So nothing is gained by Trump and Barr other than to delay possible indictments until after the election.
Trump is of course corrupt; and that is and has been obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells who has not drank the GOP's Kool Aid.
Geoffrey Berman refuses to resign as Manhattan U.S. attorney - The Washington Post
Trump's Assault on Free Speech:
Bolton claims Trump called journalists 'scumbags' who should be 'executed' | TheHill There is no doubt in my mind that Trump would execute journalists that he does not like if he had the power to do so. And, there would be no shortage of Trumpsters willing to carry out that order.
Donald is using the power of the Presidency to inhibit free speech that he does not want people to hear or read.
His threats directed at Comcast, discussed in the prior section, is just one example.
Trump threatened to bring criminal charges against Bolton in the event his book, which Trump wants to suppress, is released. The rogue Attorney General Barr has already indicated his willingness to use or threaten to use the criminal process to suppress Bolton's criticisms. Trump warns Bolton could face criminal charges if his book is released - MarketWatch
I will not be buying the book since I do not want to reward John Bolton Five Takeaways From John Bolton’s Memoir
Trump White House sues to block release of John Bolton book - MarketWatch
Barr's DOJ filed the lawsuit: READ: Trump administration's lawsuit against Bolton over book
The Complaint was signed by Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Michael Sherwin, Acting United States Attorney; Ethan P. Davis, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General; David M. Morrell, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; and Alexander K Hass, Director of the Federal Programs Branch.
The DOJ's attempt to suppress free speech may be related in part to Bolton's claim that he told Barr about Trump's malfeasance and Barr of course did nothing. Bolton Says He Warned Barr About Trump's Potential 'Obstruction of Justice'
Bolton: “The pattern looked like obstruction of justice as a way of life.”
I seriously doubt that Bolton has included classified information in the book. The purpose behind the DOJ's lawsuit is simply to suppress speech that Trump does not like.
And if Bolton is lying as claimed by Trump, then incorrect information is a per se non-disclosure of classified information. Trump Excoriates John Bolton Ahead Of Book Release: 'He Is A Liar' Donald and his rogue DOJ can not claim that the information in Bolton's book is false and also claim that the information is true and classified.
When it is published without further revisions, probably on 6/23, then the public can decide for themselves whether Barr's rogue DOJ is protecting national security secrets or has gone so rogue that it uses litigation and threats of criminal prosecution to violate citizens' constitutional rights. I vote for the latter.
Nixon tried to suppress the release of the Pentagon Papers for a similar reasons. Those papers revealed that the Nixon and prior Administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about the Vietnam War and the authorities did not not want to be embarrassed by documents for that reason. Anyone can read those documents. Pentagon Papers | National Archives I read them when they were first published. There are no national security secrets in them, only embarrassing ones.
In a 6 to 3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled against Nixon's effort to restrain publication. New York Times Co. v. United States, 403 US 713 (Supreme Court 1971):
Trump threatened to sue CNN if it did not withdraw the results of a recent poll showing Biden leading Trump and demanding that CNN apologize for the poll results which Trump called Fake News. Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading; Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis, CNN's Brian Stelter clash over Trump tweets, CNN poll lawsuit threat
Of course, all of the polls show Biden leading even the one from Fox: Fox News poll: Biden's lead widens to 12 points over Trump | TheHill
Trump has frequently used lawsuits to punish free speech, knowing that the defendants will incur substantial legal fees defending against his frivolous and frequently malevolent claims. Knowing that will happen, people will be cowed to speak and come forward with accurate and damaging information about Donald. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser; Why Donald Trump Has Never Won a Libel Case | Vanity Fair Filing lawsuits can be an effective means to suppress free speech.
The most serious continuous Trump effort to smother free speech is to cause tens of millions to avoid any contact with responsible news outlets and to acquire information and narratives only from Trump or his approved media personalities at Fox and OAN.
Trump is following the playbook of an authoritarian who wishes to undermine institutions necessary to a properly functioning democracy and is supported in his efforts by the republican party solely for the purpose of acquiring and maintaining political power.
+++
The Memo: Bolton exposé makes Trump figure of mockery | TheHill
CBS reporter asks Trump why he hires people 'that you believe are wackos and liars' amid Bolton book furor | Fox News
Senate GOP defiant over decision to block Bolton from testifying If Bolton had testified at the Senate's impeachment trial, and if Jesus Christ appeared in the Senate Chamber and confirmed the truth of every statement made by Bolton, there would still be only 1 republican senator voting to convict. Bolton's book will not impact Trump's reelection chances.
Prosecutor who withdrew from Roger Stone case to testify about DOJ - POLITICO; Two whistleblowers to testify against Attorney General Barr's 'unprecedented politicization' of Trump's Justice Department | The Independent
Trump incorrectly cites former Philly mayor Frank Rizzo for racist phrase aimed at protesters on Fox News interview
Martin Gugino: 75-year-old Buffalo protester has a fractured skull and cannot walk Donald claimed he was a member of ANTIFA, without having any evidence, and had faked his fall:
Trumpsters were claiming that the blood running out of Mr. Gugino's ear after his head slammed against the pavement was fake and was hidden in his mask.
++
More Barr/Trump Obstruction of Justice?:
Trump's Justice Department has gone rogue under William Barr.
Last night, Barr attempted to fire Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York who had been appointed to important position by Trump. Berman has refused to step down until his replacement is confirmed by the republican controlled Senate. Barr Abruptly Seeks to Fire U.S. Attorney Who Investigated Trump Associates; Trump says SEC chief Jay Clayton to replace SDNY head Geoffrey Berman
It appears that Berman wanted to do his job and was consequently not being loyal to Donald.
Berman's office reportedly has an ongoing criminal investigation of Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani. It was the SDNY federal prosecutors who secured the conviction of Michael Cohen. It is also reported that this office is looking into possible crimes relating to whether Deutsche Bank, the only bank willing to loan money to Donald, complied with anti-money laundering and other laws.
The sudden attempt to fire Berman, just five months prior to the election, at least suggests that Barr and Trump may have wanted to smother one or more criminal prosecutions and/or investigations that could damage his reelection.
If Biden wins in November, he will fire whoever is appointed and confirmed to replace Berman. So nothing is gained by Trump and Barr other than to delay possible indictments until after the election.
Trump is of course corrupt; and that is and has been obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells who has not drank the GOP's Kool Aid.
Geoffrey Berman refuses to resign as Manhattan U.S. attorney - The Washington Post
Trump's Assault on Free Speech:
Bolton claims Trump called journalists 'scumbags' who should be 'executed' | TheHill There is no doubt in my mind that Trump would execute journalists that he does not like if he had the power to do so. And, there would be no shortage of Trumpsters willing to carry out that order.
Donald is using the power of the Presidency to inhibit free speech that he does not want people to hear or read.
His threats directed at Comcast, discussed in the prior section, is just one example.
Trump threatened to bring criminal charges against Bolton in the event his book, which Trump wants to suppress, is released. The rogue Attorney General Barr has already indicated his willingness to use or threaten to use the criminal process to suppress Bolton's criticisms. Trump warns Bolton could face criminal charges if his book is released - MarketWatch
I will not be buying the book since I do not want to reward John Bolton Five Takeaways From John Bolton’s Memoir
Trump White House sues to block release of John Bolton book - MarketWatch
Barr's DOJ filed the lawsuit: READ: Trump administration's lawsuit against Bolton over book
The Complaint was signed by Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Michael Sherwin, Acting United States Attorney; Ethan P. Davis, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General; David M. Morrell, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; and Alexander K Hass, Director of the Federal Programs Branch.
The DOJ's attempt to suppress free speech may be related in part to Bolton's claim that he told Barr about Trump's malfeasance and Barr of course did nothing. Bolton Says He Warned Barr About Trump's Potential 'Obstruction of Justice'
Bolton: “The pattern looked like obstruction of justice as a way of life.”
I seriously doubt that Bolton has included classified information in the book. The purpose behind the DOJ's lawsuit is simply to suppress speech that Trump does not like.
And if Bolton is lying as claimed by Trump, then incorrect information is a per se non-disclosure of classified information. Trump Excoriates John Bolton Ahead Of Book Release: 'He Is A Liar' Donald and his rogue DOJ can not claim that the information in Bolton's book is false and also claim that the information is true and classified.
When it is published without further revisions, probably on 6/23, then the public can decide for themselves whether Barr's rogue DOJ is protecting national security secrets or has gone so rogue that it uses litigation and threats of criminal prosecution to violate citizens' constitutional rights. I vote for the latter.
Nixon tried to suppress the release of the Pentagon Papers for a similar reasons. Those papers revealed that the Nixon and prior Administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about the Vietnam War and the authorities did not not want to be embarrassed by documents for that reason. Anyone can read those documents. Pentagon Papers | National Archives I read them when they were first published. There are no national security secrets in them, only embarrassing ones.
In a 6 to 3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled against Nixon's effort to restrain publication. New York Times Co. v. United States, 403 US 713 (Supreme Court 1971):
Trump threatened to sue CNN if it did not withdraw the results of a recent poll showing Biden leading Trump and demanding that CNN apologize for the poll results which Trump called Fake News. Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading; Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis, CNN's Brian Stelter clash over Trump tweets, CNN poll lawsuit threat
Of course, all of the polls show Biden leading even the one from Fox: Fox News poll: Biden's lead widens to 12 points over Trump | TheHill
Trump has frequently used lawsuits to punish free speech, knowing that the defendants will incur substantial legal fees defending against his frivolous and frequently malevolent claims. Knowing that will happen, people will be cowed to speak and come forward with accurate and damaging information about Donald. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser; Why Donald Trump Has Never Won a Libel Case | Vanity Fair Filing lawsuits can be an effective means to suppress free speech.
The most serious continuous Trump effort to smother free speech is to cause tens of millions to avoid any contact with responsible news outlets and to acquire information and narratives only from Trump or his approved media personalities at Fox and OAN.
Trump is following the playbook of an authoritarian who wishes to undermine institutions necessary to a properly functioning democracy and is supported in his efforts by the republican party solely for the purpose of acquiring and maintaining political power.
+++
The Memo: Bolton exposé makes Trump figure of mockery | TheHill
CBS reporter asks Trump why he hires people 'that you believe are wackos and liars' amid Bolton book furor | Fox News
Senate GOP defiant over decision to block Bolton from testifying If Bolton had testified at the Senate's impeachment trial, and if Jesus Christ appeared in the Senate Chamber and confirmed the truth of every statement made by Bolton, there would still be only 1 republican senator voting to convict. Bolton's book will not impact Trump's reelection chances.
Prosecutor who withdrew from Roger Stone case to testify about DOJ - POLITICO; Two whistleblowers to testify against Attorney General Barr's 'unprecedented politicization' of Trump's Justice Department | The Independent
Trump incorrectly cites former Philly mayor Frank Rizzo for racist phrase aimed at protesters on Fox News interview
Trump May Compare Himself to Nixon in 1968, but He Really Resembles Wallace - The New York Times Trump does share Nixon's more deplorable qualities but his rhetoric and racism are more in line with George Wallace.
After the Ohio National Guard murdered several protestors at Kent State in 1968, Kent State massacre, there were nationwide protests against the Vietnam War and those murders.
Nixon could not sleep one night after that happened, and asked to be taken to the Lincoln Memorial where protestors were encamped for an extemporaneous talk with them. Nixon reportedly said "I want you to know that I understand just how you feel.”
I read through Donald's tweets everyday, noting a constant stream of flagrantly false narratives being pushed to his followers. He must have nothing but disdain for their intelligence and knowledge.
There are some protestors occupying a few blocks in Seattle. This is how Donald characterizes that protest for his True Believers:
Donald's solution is to send it the U.S. military. Trump Threatens Military Action Over Seattle’s ‘Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone’ | NBC Nightly News - YouTube Donald use of active duty military to disperse the Seattle protest would only inflame the issue and cause the protests to spread nationwide.
Here's what Seattle's Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone looks like; 'Go Back To Your Bunker,' Seattle Mayor Tells Trump In Spat Over Protests
Analysis: Fact checking recent statements from Trump on protests, Seattle, health care – The Denver Post
Trump routinely refers to moderate Democrats as radical leftists. Anyone to the left of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are radical leftists in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld. That would include True Conservatives and moderates.
Trump’s Tulsa campaign rally sign-up page includes coronavirus liability disclaimer - The Washington Post Masks and social distancing will not be required at Trump campaign rallies. If a few thousand people in attendance become infected, and transmit it to thousands more, that is just a small price to pay in Trumpworld. It is only important for the Duck to receive the adoration of his followers.
Donald continues to claim that there would be very few COVID-19 cases with no testing. It is the testing that causes the hospitalizations and deaths in TrumpWorld:
Trump's False Claim on Tijuana Coronavirus Cases - FactCheck.org
After the Ohio National Guard murdered several protestors at Kent State in 1968, Kent State massacre, there were nationwide protests against the Vietnam War and those murders.
Nixon could not sleep one night after that happened, and asked to be taken to the Lincoln Memorial where protestors were encamped for an extemporaneous talk with them. Nixon reportedly said "I want you to know that I understand just how you feel.”
I read through Donald's tweets everyday, noting a constant stream of flagrantly false narratives being pushed to his followers. He must have nothing but disdain for their intelligence and knowledge.
There are some protestors occupying a few blocks in Seattle. This is how Donald characterizes that protest for his True Believers:
Donald's solution is to send it the U.S. military. Trump Threatens Military Action Over Seattle’s ‘Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone’ | NBC Nightly News - YouTube Donald use of active duty military to disperse the Seattle protest would only inflame the issue and cause the protests to spread nationwide.
Here's what Seattle's Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone looks like; 'Go Back To Your Bunker,' Seattle Mayor Tells Trump In Spat Over Protests
Analysis: Fact checking recent statements from Trump on protests, Seattle, health care – The Denver Post
Trump routinely refers to moderate Democrats as radical leftists. Anyone to the left of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are radical leftists in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld. That would include True Conservatives and moderates.
Trump’s Tulsa campaign rally sign-up page includes coronavirus liability disclaimer - The Washington Post Masks and social distancing will not be required at Trump campaign rallies. If a few thousand people in attendance become infected, and transmit it to thousands more, that is just a small price to pay in Trumpworld. It is only important for the Duck to receive the adoration of his followers.
Donald continues to claim that there would be very few COVID-19 cases with no testing. It is the testing that causes the hospitalizations and deaths in TrumpWorld:
Trump's False Claim on Tijuana Coronavirus Cases - FactCheck.org
Trump’s Actions Rattle the Military World: ‘I Can’t Support the Man’
Secret Service now says it did use pepper spray to clear protesters during the Trump church photo op
Fox "News" manipulated photos in order to make the peaceful protest in Seattle look violent. I would regard this effort as purposely deceitful. Fox News runs digitally altered images in coverage of Seattle’s protests, Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone | The Seattle Times; Fox News publishes digitally altered and misleading images of Seattle demonstrations; Fox News removes manipulated images from coverage of Seattle protests - The Washington Post
Facebook And Twitter Remove 'Racist Baby' Video Posted By President Trump: Live Updates: Protests For Racial Justice-NPR; Parent of the toddler in 'manipulated' Trump video forces Facebook and Twitter to remove it
As Trump casts Biden as ‘sleepy Joe,’ his critics raise questions about his own fitness At the West Point commencement, Donald had to hold a glass of water with two hands to take a sip and his gait coming down a ramp at least suggested developing possible physical and/or mental infirmities, as does his frequently slurred and incoherent speech.
#TrumpIsNotWell-YouTube This is another video released by the Lincoln Project, a group of Never Trump Republicans who have the most effective campaign ads targeting Donald. One of the founders noted that Democrats will bring a soufflé dish to a knife fight. The Lincoln Project is bringing an AK-47.
A tiny Ohio town’s Black Lives Matter event was overrun by armed counterprotesters The Trumpsters came in force, estimated at about 700 people, with many carrying automatic weapons, baseball bats and clubs. The Trumpsters wanted the BLM protestors to know that Ohio was a republican state, unlike Washington state, and peaceful demonstrations that offended the Trumpsters would be met with violence.
Fight grows in Mississippi over state flag's Confederate emblem
Facebook removes Trump ads with symbol once used by Nazis to designate political prisoners
As I mentioned in the last post, Tennessee republicans have refused to remove a statue of Nathan Bedford Forrest prominently featured in the state capital building and are unperturbed by the fact that Forrest was a founder of the KKK and its first Grand Wizard. The statue needs to be pulverized and then buried. Bid to remove Nathan Bedford Forrest statue fails in House; Protesters want Nathan Bedford Forrest bust removed from Tennessee State Capitol | News | wsmv.com
More evidence is emerging that right wing groups were responsible for some of the recent violence. Airman charged with killing federal officer in Oakland tied to right-wing ‘boogaloo’ movement - MarketWatch
Are far-right extremists behind violence at BLM protests? | The Kansas City Star
Republicans have now proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they will nurture, praise, coddle, enable and protect a lying authoritarian demagogue no matter what he does. It is imperative that all non-republicans learn and remember those facts for the remainder of their lives.
++++++++++
Covid-19 Updates:
W.H.O. Warns of ‘Dangerous Phase’ of Pandemic as Outbreaks Widen
WHO: COVID-19 pandemic is 'accelerating,' in 'new and dangerous phase' - MarketWatch (6/19/20)
Outside Trump's Tulsa rally site, few face masks and no social distancing The "Chosen One" will protect them from infections. It is God's will.
Trump says some wear coronavirus masks 'to signal disapproval of him'
Trump made this comment last Monday: “If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any.” I have gained a few pounds as of late. My diet program is to quit weighing myself so I will not gain any more pounds.
Donald also claimed last Monday that there was an AIDS vaccine and praised scientists for developing it. There is no AIDS vaccine. Trump praises scientists for developing AIDS vaccine that doesn't exist Donald will frequently preface a demonstrably false statement with "as you know" or "everybody knows".
On 6/17/20, Trump represented that the coronavirus was "dying out". Trump says coronavirus is 'dying out;' Dr. Sanjay Gupta says the virus is not dying - CNN
Major study finds the steroid dexamethasone reduces deaths in patients with severe Covid-19 This drug significantly reduced deaths (35%) for patients on ventilators. So far this study has not been peered reviewed.
Republican congressman Tom Rice reveals he and his family have coronavirus - two weeks after he refused to wear a mask on the House floor Republicans will lead the charge to more U.S. infections and deaths.
Trump Rally In Oklahoma On Saturday: What To Know: NPR; Trump's Rally in Tulsa Could Spread Virus - The New York Times;
Coronavirus recommendations ignored as case numbers rise
Record spike in new coronavirus cases reported in 6 U.S. states as reopening accelerates (6/16/20)
236 new cases popped up in Oregon linked to the Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church whose congregation disobeyed a state order prohibiting large gatherings. Oregon Reports 278 COVID-19 Cases, Another Record, as Outbreak at Pentecostal Church Ravages Union County - Willamette Week
16 Friends Get Coronavirus After Going to Florida Bar | PEOPLE.com (6/16/20)
Arizona tells coronavirus modeling team of state university experts to stop work | Local news | tucson.com If there is no attempt to model the spread, then the virus goes away.
CDC finds majority would not feel safe if U.S. coronavirus rules lifted
CDC may reimplement strict coronavirus rules if cases go up 'dramatically'
Beijing district in 'wartime emergency' after virus cluster at major food market - Reuters (6/12/20)
Tulsa factory closes due to COVID-19 week before Trump rally | Fort Worth Star-Telegram (6/12/20)
Beijing Coronavirus Outbreak Tied to Market Sparks Resurgence Concerns (6/14)
FDA revokes emergency use of hydroxychloroquine
Azar, Trump Mislead on FDA’s Hydroxychloroquine Decision - FactCheck.org
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Warns of Newly Discovered Potential Drug Interaction That May Reduce Effectiveness of a COVID-19 Treatment Authorized for Emergency Use | FDA The FDA warned doctors that the "co-administration of remdesivir and chloroquine phosphate or hydroxychloroquine sulfate is not recommended as it may result in reduced antiviral activity of remdesivir."
Hydroxychloroquine is Doctor Don's miracle cure for Covid-19 and was strongly recommended by the Fox News personalities Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity whose medical expertise and knowledge may collectively equal that of Doctor Don.
++++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted. The only trades that are not commission free are bond purchases, where I pay a $1 per bond commission, and trades on the Toronto exchange where the commission is C$1 per 100 shares.
1. Small Ball:
1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
(5) When a position is eliminated, there is no longer a purchase restriction. However, I am unlikely to start another "small ball buying program" until the shares fall at least 5% below the exit price. My preferred reentry point would be below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share. This looser purchase restriction is based on a judgment call about the risk/reward balance.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
(5) When a position is eliminated, there is no longer a purchase restriction. However, I am unlikely to start another "small ball buying program" until the shares fall at least 5% below the exit price. My preferred reentry point would be below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share. This looser purchase restriction is based on a judgment call about the risk/reward balance.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
A. Restarted HRZN-Bought 10 at $9.29:
Quote: Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (HRZN)-A BDC
Closing Price 6/19: HRZN +$11.63 +$0.07 +0.61%
Management: External
HRZN SEC Filings
Website: Horizon Technology Finance
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 26 and ends at page 58)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Sold 30 HRZN at $11.8 (11/18/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at $.1 per share
Closing Price 6/19: HRZN +$11.63 +$0.07 +0.61%
Management: External
HRZN SEC Filings
Website: Horizon Technology Finance
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 26 and ends at page 58)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Sold 30 HRZN at $11.8 (11/18/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at $.1 per share
Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/20
Next Ex Dividend: 7/16/20
Dividend Announcement -SEC Filed News Release
Dividend Yield at $9.29 = 12.92%
Net Asset Value Per Share History: A Major Negative
03/31/20: $11.48
12/31/19: $11.83
12/31/18: $11.64
12/31/17: $11.72
12/31/16: $12.09
12/31/15: $13.85
12/31/14: $14.36 10-K at page 54
12/31/13: $14.14
12/31/12: $15.15
12/31/11: $17.01
October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus
When characterizing this history as a major negative, I am taking into consideration that the decline in net asset value per share has occurred during an economic expansion and a bull market in stocks until February 2020.
5 Year Historical:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"As of March 31, 2020, the Company’s debt portfolio consisted of 36 secured loans with an aggregate fair value of $307.6 million. In addition, the Company’s total warrant, equity and other investments in 71 portfolio companies had an aggregate fair value of $10.0 million, and the Company’s 50% equity interest in its joint venture had a fair value of $16.9 million as of March 31, 2020.
Net asset value of $193.5 million, or $11.48 per share, as of March 31, 2020
Undistributed spillover income of $0.38 per share as of March 31, 2020
Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter"
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 (investments and brief summary of terms listed starting at page 7)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Exchange Traded Bond: I also bought 10 shares of this BDC's exchange traded senior bond, which I discuss in Item # 4.A. below.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/20
Next Ex Dividend: 7/16/20
Dividend Announcement -SEC Filed News Release
Dividend Yield at $9.29 = 12.92%
Net Asset Value Per Share History: A Major Negative
03/31/20: $11.48
12/31/19: $11.83
12/31/18: $11.64
12/31/17: $11.72
12/31/16: $12.09
12/31/15: $13.85
12/31/14: $14.36 10-K at page 54
12/31/13: $14.14
12/31/12: $15.15
12/31/11: $17.01
October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus
When characterizing this history as a major negative, I am taking into consideration that the decline in net asset value per share has occurred during an economic expansion and a bull market in stocks until February 2020.
5 Year Historical:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"As of March 31, 2020, the Company’s debt portfolio consisted of 36 secured loans with an aggregate fair value of $307.6 million. In addition, the Company’s total warrant, equity and other investments in 71 portfolio companies had an aggregate fair value of $10.0 million, and the Company’s 50% equity interest in its joint venture had a fair value of $16.9 million as of March 31, 2020.
Net investment income of $4.3 million, or $0.26 per share, compared to $3.2 million, or $0.28 per share for the prior-year period Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter
For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, net realized gain on investments was $3.5 million, or $0.21 per share, compared to a net realized gain on investments of $1.2 million, or $0.10 per share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2019.
|
Undistributed spillover income of $0.38 per share as of March 31, 2020
Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter"
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 (investments and brief summary of terms listed starting at page 7)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Exchange Traded Bond: I also bought 10 shares of this BDC's exchange traded senior bond, which I discuss in Item # 4.A. below.
B. Added 3 IRM at $22.99; 2 at $22.31:
Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)
Closing Price 6/19: IRM $26.34 -$0.64 -2.37%
Closing Price 6/19: IRM $26.34 -$0.64 -2.37%
Website: Data & Records Management | Shredding | Iron Mountain
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 8)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.61; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6 and 1 at $21.79(5/2/20 Post)
Current Position: 32+ shares
I am not a fan.
Average Cost Per Share: $26.47
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6185 per share ($2.474 annually)
Iron Mountain - Stock - Dividend History and Tax Treatment
I view a dividend cut as a possibility.
Part of the problem is that the company is already over leveraged in my opinion and becoming more so as it moves into data centers.
Another issue is that revenues and cash flow have been and will continue to be adversely impacted by COVID-19 related shutdowns and slowdowns.
IRM's senior unsecured debt is currently rated in junk territory.
Last May, S & P affirmed its BB- rating but change the outlook to negative. The widespread worldwide shutdowns will result in significantly lower revenue, with S & P estimating a 15% to 20% revenue decline in the second quarter.
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 9.35%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
SEC Filed Earnings Call Transcript
Overall Impression: Negative with major declines in second quarter revenues anticipated
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post); Item # 1.F. Sold 10 IRM at $32.1 (2/12/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
I have access to two brokerage reports. Both are negative. The Credit Suisse analyst has been super negative.
Credit Suisse (5/7/20): Underperform with a PT of $17, reduced from $18. CS has been negative for as long as I have had access to their reports.
S & P (5/29/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $27. The S & P analyst slashed the PT by $8 on 5/7/20, noting the strong headwinds related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share. My highest cost lot (5 shares) was bought at $30.65 (10/26/18). The tax cost basis is lower given ROC adjustments to the original cost number. I will sell that lot when and if the price exceeds $30.65.
Other Recent News: Iron Mountain Incorporated Announces Debt Offering (6/17/20)(IRM announced that it has priced an upsized offering by way of a private placement of a total of $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2028 (the "2028 Notes"), $1,300 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.250% Senior Notes due 2030 (the "2030 Notes") and $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% Senior Notes due 2032") The proceeds from the notes will be used "to repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings under the Company's revolving credit facility and to redeem all $500 million of its 4⅜% Senior Notes due 2021, all $600 million of its 6% Senior Notes due 2023 and all $1 billion of its 5¾% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2024."
C. Added to FNB-Bought 3 at $7; 5 at $6.47; 10 at $6.81:
Quote: F.N.B. Corp.
Closing Price Last Friday: FNB $7.62 -$0.10 -1.30%
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Added 5 FNB at 8.8; 5 at $8.43; 5 at $7.62; 5 at $6.6 (4/30/20 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FNB | F.N.B. Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Last Ex-Dividend: 5/29/20 (all shares owned as of)
Dividend History: Highly unfavorable. FNB cut its quarterly dividend by 50% in 2009 and has not raised it since that slash.
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, shares viewed as undervalued long term, but short term headwinds for regional banks are a major negative for accumulation now IMO.
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $10.66
Current Position This Account: 193+ shares
Dividend Yield at $10.66: 4.5%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
"F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE: FNB) reported earnings for the first quarter of 2020 with net income available to common stockholders of $45.4 million, or $0.14 per diluted common share. Comparatively, first quarter of 2019 net income available to common stockholders totaled $92.1 million, or $0.28 per diluted common share, and fourth quarter of 2019 net income available to common stockholders totaled $93.2 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share. The results for the first quarter of 2020 reflect a provision for credit losses of $37.9 million, or $0.09 per share, related to the COVID-19 macroeconomic impacts under the newly adopted Current Expected Credit Losses Standard (CECL), branch consolidation costs of $8.3 million, $0.02 per share, mortgage servicing rights impairment of $7.7 million, or $0.02 per share, accelerated vesting of certain 2020 stock grants of $5.6 million, or $0.01 per share, and COVID-19 related expenses of $2.0 million. These significant, unusual, or outsized items totaled $61 million, negatively impacting earnings by $0.15 per share."
"The net interest margin (FTE) (non-GAAP) expanded 7 basis points to 3.14%, driven by stable average loan yields, higher discount accretion on acquired loans in a post-CECL environment, and a 10 basis point improvement in the cost of average deposits.'
"The loan to deposit ratio was 96.5% at March 31, 2020"
"The efficiency ratio (non-GAAP) was 59.0%, compared to 53.4%, reflecting the impact of significant, unusual, and outsized items during the first quarter of 2020"
"The annualized net charge-offs to total average loans ratio improved 4 basis points to 0.10% from 0.14%."
"The ratio of non-performing loans and OREO to total loans and OREO increased 9 basis points to 0.64%. Prior to the adoption of CECL, acquired PCD loans were excluded from our nonperforming disclosures. PCD loans that meet the definition of non-accrual are now included in the disclosures and resulted in $54 million increase in the non-accrual loans in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the prior quarter."
Other Small Ball: I have also started small ball purchase programs in two other taxable accounts, where I will buy only when the price lowers my average cost per share.
Vanguard Account: shares with an average cost per share of .
Fidelity Account: 15 shares with an average cost per share of $6.71.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C Sold 31 FNB at $12.17 and Item # 2.D Sold 100 FNB at $12.17 (11/2/19 Post); Item # 5.A Sold 20 FNB at $11.42 (9/28/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 30 FNB at $11.95-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 FNB at $13.65-Used Commission Free Trade (9/5/18 Post); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade (6/18/18 Post); Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59 (3/5/2018);Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)
FNB Realized Gains to Date: $1,354.65
Comparative Data Charts at St. Louis Federal Reserve:
Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NIM")
Return on Average Equity for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROE")
Return on Average Assets for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROA")
Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NPL Ratio")
D. Pared D-Sold 13 at $78.17 (highest cost lots):
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Closing Price 6/19: D $81.72 -$2.81 -3.32%
Website: Dominion Energy
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
Profit Snapshot: +$51.81
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post)
Average Cost Remaining Shares = $65.71
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Closing Price 6/19: D $81.72 -$2.81 -3.32%
Website: Dominion Energy
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
Profit Snapshot: +$51.81
Average Cost Remaining Shares = $65.71
Dividend: Quarterly at $.94 per share ($3.76 annually)
Dominion Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend of 94 Cents
Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy
The penny rate was raised to $.94 from $.9175 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.72%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/4/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Dominion Energy Announces First-Quarter Earnings
"Company affirms full-year 2020 operating earnings guidance of $4.25 to $4.60 per share"
My largest position is in senior unsecured notes issued by Dominion's subsidiary Virginia Electric Power, the largest electric utility operating in Virginia. I currently own 12 bonds that mature in 2022. I also have exposure to Dominion Energy debt but most of those bonds will mature on 7/1/20 (7 $1K par value 2.579% junior bonds) The remaining Dominion Energy bonds are senior unsecured.
Recent News: Dominion seeks more time to build Atlantic Coast Pipeline (NYSE:D) | Seeking Alpha; Supreme Court clears key obstacle for Atlantic Coast Pipeline (NYSE:D) | Seeking Alpha
E. Restarted CCNE-Bought 5 at $15.25; 5 at $14.95; 5 at $13.75:
As of Close 6/19/20 |
Closing Price 6/19: CCNE $17.41 -$0.04 -0.23%
"CNB Financial Corporation is a financial holding company with consolidated assets of approximately $4.0 billion that conducts business primarily through CNB Bank, CNB Financial Corporation’s principal subsidiary. CNB Bank is a full-service bank engaging in a full range of banking activities and services, including trust and wealth management services, for individual, business, governmental, and institutional customers. CNB Bank operations include a private banking division, one loan production office and 42 full-service offices in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. CNB Bank’s divisions include ERIEBANK, based in Erie, Pennsylvania with offices in northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio; FCBank, based in Worthington, Ohio with offices in central Ohio; and BankOnBuffalo, based in Buffalo, New York with offices in northwest New York. CNB Bank is headquartered in Clearfield, Pennsylvania with offices in central and north central Pennsylvania."
CCNE SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
CCNE Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Investor Presentation June 2020
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost Per Share: $14.65
Last Eliminated: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining CCNE-Sold 50 at $23.76 (2/17/2017 Post)(profit snapshot $618.1)-Item # 2 Bought 50 CCNE at $11.06 (6/30/2010 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually)
CNB Financial Announces Second Quarter Dividend
Dividend Yield at $14.65 = 4.64%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/29/20 (all shares owned as of)
5 Year Historical:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): CNB Financial Corporation Reports First Quarter 2020 Earnings Per Share of $0.57 Compared to $0.62 For First Quarter 2019
NIM: 3.49%
ROA: .95%
ROE: 11.32%
NPA Ratio: 1.18%
NPL Ratio: .89%
Total Risked Based Capital Ratio: 12.66%
Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets: 7.65%
Efficiency Ratio: 60.34%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $18.58
As of 3/31/20, loans to hotels were 6.3% of the total.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. This is the most restrictive version and is being used for this mini cap bank due to hotel loan exposure.
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
CCNE Trading Profits To Date: $1,025.7
F. Eliminated NBB-Sold 35 at $20.17:
Quote Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund Overview- A Leveraged CEF
Profit Snapshot: $53.53
Item # 2.B. Restarted NBB-Bought 20 at $19.4, 5 at $18.5; 5 at $17.74 5 at $16.67 (4/11/20 Post)
Data Date of Trade (5/6/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $19.92
Closing Market Price: $20.29
Premium: +1.86%
Sourced: Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income - CEF Connect
Quote: NBB - Nuveen Build America Bond Fund
I will trade Build America Bond CEFs.
Some Prior NBB Trades:
Item # 3 Sold 50 NBB in Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $62.98)-Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $19.51 in a Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 10/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 2 Sold 100 NBB at $21.25 (Roth IRA)(2/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot $101.7)-Item # 1 Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 (6/14/14 Post); Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $20.73-ROTH IRA (6/8/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA (11/22/2011 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 (11/4/11 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 NBB at $19.24 in the Regular IRA (12/3/2010 Post)- Item # 5 Bought: 50 NBB at $18.4 (11/18/2010 Post)
G. Started CNA-Bought 10 at $28.15; 10 at $27, 5 at $26 and Sold 10 at $29.44:
Quote: CNA Financial Corp. (CNA)
Closing Price 6/19: CNA $32.55 -$0.29 -0.88%
CNA | CNA Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates
As of 6/15/20:
2020 $2.81
2021 $3.84
CNA is an insurance holding company whose products primarily include property and casualty coverages including surety.
CNA SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Buys:
Sold Highest Cost Lot:
Profit Snapshot-10 Shares: +$12.29
Average Cost Per Share: $26.67
Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48 annually)
CNA paid a $2 per share special dividend earlier this year.
Dividend Yield at $26.67 = 5.55% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20 (owned all shares as of)
5 Year Historical:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): The GAAP earnings loss was caused by depreciation in CNA's stocks.
Ex-Items, CNA reported a $.4 E.P.S. vs. the consensus estimate of $.56. CNA Financial (CNA) Lags Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - May 4, 2020 - Zacks.com
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Loews Corporation (L) owns 89.1% of CNA's stock. CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) Stock Major Holders - Yahoo Finance
H. Added to SLG-Bought 2 at $45.59; 1 at $44.23, 1 at $43; 1 at $42.5; 1 at $40; 1 at $38; 1 at $35.5 and Sold 5 at $50; 2 at $52.19: 1 at $61.54:
Closing Price 6/19: SLG $51.87 -$1.66 -3.10%
Purchases:
Sold 5 at $50; 2 at $52.19; 1 at $61.54:
I mentioned paring this position in a 6/4/20 comment. Quote: SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)
Website: SL Green Realty- NYC’s Largest Commercial Landlord
SL Green | Properties
Profit Snapshot: +$38.48 (8 shares)
Average Cost Per Share After Pare: $40.45
Snapshot Intraday on 6/8/20 |
Yield at $40.45 TC = 8.75%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/28/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Current Position: 6 shares
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 5 SLG at $48.51 (5/9/20 Post) This lot has been sold. I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
With New York City offices still closed, companies consider downsizing-or heading for the suburbs-MarketWatch I discussed this concern in a 5/13/20 comment.
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
I also own 20 SLGPRI shares Item 4.A. Bought 10 SLGPRI at $20.75; 10 at $19 (5/9/20 Post); SL Green Realty Corp. 6.5% Preferred Series I Overview
I discuss the purchase of a SLG SU bond in Item #3.C. below.
I. Eliminated VTR Position (Fidelity Account)-Sold 57+ at $43.42 :
Quote: Ventas Inc. (VTR)
Closing Price 6/19: VTR $35.80 -$3.55 -9.02% (slashed dividend)
Investment category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: Net of $81.91 (excludes 2/20 and 2/21 sells)
I discussed this sell in a 6/5 comment.
Subsequent to eliminating my VTR positions, the company slashed its quarterly dividend by 43.5%. Ventas Declares Second Quarter 2020 Dividend
The new quarterly penny rate is $.45 per share, down from the prior penny rate of $.7925. A dividend cut was expected due to the problems in VTR's senior housing segment, but I was surprised by the magnitude.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added 5 VTR at $46; 5 at $41.7; 5 at $38; 2 at $31.96; 3 at $29; 2 at $26.87; 2 at $26; 2 at $22.48; 1 at $21; 1 at $19.2; 1 at $18; 1 at $16 and 1 at $14.28 (3/21/20 Post) I did not care for how many times that I had to average down.
Company Website: Ventas
VTR SEC Filings
VTR 5 Year Chart- Yahoo Finance
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B.Sold 5 at $62.7 and 5 at $63.19 (3/7/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
J. Eliminated VTR (Vanguard Account):
Profit Snapshot: +$54.53
K. Bought 100 PGX at $13.9 (Fidelity Account) and Eliminated Position in Vanguard Account-Sold 15 shares:
Quote: Invesco Preferred ETF Overview
Closing Price 6/19: PGX $14.38 +$0.07 +0.49%
Sponsor's Website: Invesco
Expense Ratio: .52%
Holdings | Invesco Preferred ETF
Some Holdings:
Several of the securities included in these snapshots are exchange traded bonds.
Profit Snapshot 15 Shares = $20.36
Last Elimination: Item # 1.A Sold 50 PGX at $14.35 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $45.46).
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 100 PGX at $13.65 (9/14/13 Post); Item # 5 Sold: 200 PGX at $14.38 (11/12/2010)
Dividends: Monthly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/18/20
Using the word "preferred" to describe the holdings is in part a misnomer. This fund does own equity preferred stocks that pay either qualified or non-qualified dividends. The fund also owns exchange traded bonds that pay interest. Those ETBs include first mortgage, senior unsecured and junior subordinated bonds.
1 Year PGX Chart:
Whenever there is an extreme volatility spike in stocks, which will be accompanied by a substantial decline in stock indexes, equity preferred stocks and exchange trade bonds will experience major declines as well as shown in the 1 year PGX chart above. This has happened in the past even when treasury interest rates are declining. The price decline for equity preferred stocks and exchange trade bonds will generally be greater when the fear involves a material increase in credit risk concerns
L. Started BPYUP-Bought 10 at $14.37:
Quote: Brookfield Property REIT Inc. 6.375% Pfd. Series A Overview
1 Year Chart:
Closing Price 6/19: BPYUP $17.10 -$0.08 -0.47%
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I view this one as a risky REIT equity preferred stock which explains the 10 share purchase. I am not likely to buy more than 10 more shares.
It was originally issued by General Growth Properties (a Mall REIT) which is now Brookfield Property REIT Inc (BPYU), see page F-53 BPYU 10-K
BPYU is a U.S REIT and a subsidiary of Brookfield Property Partners.
Quote for Brookfield Property Partners L.P. (BPY)
BPY also owns office properties and has what it calls a LP investment portfolio. The "LP Investments portfolio includes our equity invested in Brookfield-sponsored real estate opportunity funds, which target high-quality assets with operational upside across various real estate sectors, including office, retail, multifamily, logistics, hospitality, self-storage, triple net lease, manufactured housing and student housing".
BPY has issued a preferred stock with a 6.5% coupon that trades at a much higher price and substantially lower yield than BPYUP issued by its subsidiary Brookfield Property REIT. BPYPP | Brookfield Property Partners L.P. 6.5% Cumulative PreferredUnits I did not research why there is a yield difference. My guess without looking is that BPY could allow BPYU to bankrupt (or cease paying dividends) while that is not an option for BPY L.P. or at least less likely due to the office properties compared to BPYU's malls.
As I recall the General Growth Property malls were classified mostly as "A" class, and many are in major population centers.
The relationship between BPYU and BPY is complicated and beyond the scope of this post. The "BPYU shares are exchangeable on a 1:1 basis for BPY units or their cash equivalence." Brookfield Property REIT That is apparently not the case for the preferred stocks.
BPYU SEC Filings
BPYU 2019 Annual Report (list of retail properties starts at page 15)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20
Preferred Stock - Brookfield Property Partners
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.375%
Dividend: Cumulative and Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20
Brookfield Property REIT Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividends
It is a definite possibility that the common share dividend will be cut before year end.
Issuer Optional Call: on or after 2/13/18 at par plus accrued and unpaid dividends.
Stopper Clause: Yes at pages S-32;
M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 Shares at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76:
I sold my highest cost lots.
Closing Price 6/19: GOOD $18.56 -$0.44 -2.34%
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)- An Equity REIT
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Added 2 GOOD at $13,35 (5/30/20 Post)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
The 12 shares included 10 shares bought in the open market and the highest cost shares purchased with dividends.
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: $48.17 (excludes 4/29 sell)
This pare resulted in selling all of my shares owned for more than 1 year. The remaining shares were purchased this year, starting on 3/10/20.
Average Cost Per Share Before Pares = $14.81
Average Cost After Pare = $14
Snapshot Intraday 6/5/20 |
Dividend: Monthly at $.12515 ($1.5 annually rounded)
Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation
Dividend Yield at $14 total cost = 10.71%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/18/20
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)
N. Started SKYY-Bought 1 at $71.88; 1 at $71.31; 1 at $70.83 and 1 at $68:
Quote: SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF Overview
I also bought 1 or 2 shares in three other accounts as placeholders.
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY)
1 Year Chart:
Bungee Jumper |
Holdings: 64
Holdings Weighted at 1%+:
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. Selling highest cost share on pops will also be used. I view this niche sector as being over extended at the present time.
Maximum Position: 100 shares all accounts
2. Short Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4% SU Maturing on 7/15/22:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
2019 Annual Report (debt listed at page F-27; the 4% SU maturing in 2022 is the next SU maturity)
Credit Ratings:
Total Cost = 98.609 (with $2 commission)
YTM at TC = 4.679%
Current Yield at TC = 4.0564%
B. Sold 2 out of 12 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/22:
Profit Snapshot: +$104.29
Item # 3.B Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22 at a TC of 98.716 (1/30/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 at a TC of 98.613 (4/9/18 Post)
I mentioned this sell in a 5/14/20 comment.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 103.979
YTM at 103.979 = 1.209%
I still own the 10 bonds bought at a total cost of 96.828. Item #5.A. (4/18/20 Post)
C. Bought 2 S.L.Green Operating L.P. 3.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/22:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating Entity for SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) who guarantees the notes
Total Cost with $2 Commission: 99.579
YTM at Total Cost: 3.437%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.2637%
Optional Redemption: At par value within 1 month prior to maturity, otherwise subject to make whole.
4. Exchange Traded Bonds:
The two BDC baby bonds discussed below are lightly traded, usually with significant bid-ask spreads, and can be moved significantly up and down in price with negligible volume.
The two BDC baby bonds discussed below are lightly traded, usually with significant bid-ask spreads, and can be moved significantly up and down in price with negligible volume.
Quote: HTFA | Horizon Technology Finance Corp. 6.25% Notes due 09/15/22 Overview
Closing Price 6/19: HTFA $24.50 -$0.10 -0.41%
Closing Price 6/19: HTFA $24.50 -$0.10 -0.41%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
Issuer: HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance Corp. Overview-A BDC
The confirmation incorrectly describes this security as a "preferred".
It is a senior unsecured baby bond.
Prospectus: "The Notes will be our direct unsecured obligations and rank pari passu with all outstanding and future unsecured unsubordinated indebtedness" This is how senior unsecured debt is described.
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 9/15/19
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at the issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/22
The issuer discussed this bond in its most recent 10-Q filing:
Page 58 |
"The Notes are expected to trade “flat,” which means that purchasers will not pay, and sellers will not receive, any accrued and unpaid interest on the Notes that is not reflected in the trading price".
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/29/20 (owned as of)
B. Added 10 TPVY at $24.62 and 10 at $24:
Average Cost Per Share: $24.31
Last Discussion: Item # 4.C. Bought 5 TPVY at $21.95 (4/11/20 Post)
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Next Ex Interest Date: 6/30/20
Trades Flat
The yield-to-maturity with a $24.31 cost basis is about 7.25%. Bond Yield Calculator
The YTM number assumes that all interest payments will be made and the issuer will pay the principal amount on the maturity date.
The difference in the 5.91% current yield and the % YTM is the profit on the bond, which is part of the YTM calculation.
Quote: Dillard's Capital Trust I 7.5%
Closing Price 6/19: DDT $21.73 -$0.12 -0.54%
Closing Price 6/19: DDT $21.73 -$0.12 -0.54%
Category: Trust Preferred Securities, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bond
Regular Preferred and Trust Preferred (1/1/2019)
Regular Preferred and Trust Preferred (1/1/2019)
Profit Snapshot: +$7.79
This was my highest cost lot.
Average Cost After Pare: $16.1
Yield at $16.1 = 11.65%
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.5%
Maturity: 8/1/2038
Trades Flat: Whoever owns the bond on the ex interest date receives the interest payment
Last Ex Interest: 4/15/20 (all shares owned as of)
Next Ex Interest Date: 7/16/20
Next Ex Interest Date: 7/16/20
Last Discussed: Item #3.B. (5/16/20 Post)
DDT Trading Profits to Date +$233.92 (prior snapshots included in Item #4.D. below)
While Trust Preferred securities are "baby bonds", as are Trust Certificates, I do not include trading snapshots in my Exchange Traded Baby Bonds post.
The owners of a Trust Preferred and Trust Certificate do not directly own the bond.
Instead those securities represent an undivided beneficial in a bond owned by a trust. I consequently create separate classifications for those bonds since they do not involve direct ownership.
I include round trip trading profits in Trust Certificates in this post.
Both Trust Certificates and Trust Preferred securities are on the way out as income investments due to redemptions and a lack of new supply.
I could not find a post that includes my Trust Preferred trading profits, so here is what I could find that falls into that category. Almost all of these securities have been called by the issuer:
Most of the realized gains in this exchange traded bond category originated with these called securities with realized gains over $200:
SIVBO: +$1,354.47
JWF: +$880.1
ABWPRA: +$311.15
ZBPRB: +$208.02
REPRB: $232.65
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
ZBPRB: +$208.02
REPRB: $232.65
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
The republican federal district court judge Royce Lamberth refused to grant the government's request for an injunction blocking the release of Bolton's book. The reason was that the book had been too widely disseminated, so an injunction would be ineffective.
ReplyDeleteThe judge made it clear that the government would likely succeed on the merits, holding that Bolton had released classified information without clearance.
The official who was in charge of scrubbing out classified information gave the go ahead to publish. Trump then caused a lawyer and political appointee on the NSC to claim that there was still classified information in the manuscript. The judge held an in camera review of that new assertion and sided with government.
Bolton will challenge that conclusion when there is a trial on the merits. The judge's decision on the injunction motion is not the final decision on the merits. If Bolton did disclose information that was properly classified, and I personally doubt that he did, he can be subject to criminal liability and forfeiture of his book advance and royalties.
If Biden was not so disliked by the Democrats, Biden as President might end the government's suit against Bolton provided an impartial review found no classified information was in the book. Since Bolton is viewed highly unfavorably by Democrats, I doubt that Biden would pursue that course and would simply allow instead the judicial process to reach its conclusion on the matter.
Court's decision:
https://pacer-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/36/219024/04517891261.pdf
Trump has now fired Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York.
ReplyDeleteBarr could not legally fire Berman, nor could he appoint the U.S. Attorney for N.J. Craig Carpenito to replace Berman which he tried to do Friday night.
Berman was appointed by Trump but Trump never submitted his appointment for confirmation to the Senate.
After 120 days serving as U.S.Attorney for the SDNY without Senate confirmation, the federal district court judges in that district had the power to appoint Berman to continue serving for another 2 years, which they did do under 28 United States Code § 546(d).
Once the judges made that appointment, Berman could only be replaced by someone confirmed by the senate or a person appointed by the judges.
In Barr's letter to Berman disclosing that Trump has fired him, he abandoned appointing Carpenito which was clearly illegal and instead elevated the existing deputy attorney general for the SDNY Audrey Strauss to replace him.
This is of highly questionable legality as well since it violates the provisions of the specific statute that deals with how U.S. attorneys appointed by the district court judges in the district can be replaced. Barr argues that a more general statute governs. If the judges do not agree to the appointment of Ms Strauss, then that will create one big mess.
In addition to investigating Giuliani for possible criminal conduct, the SDNY office also indicted the Giuliani associates Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman. The SDNY also subpoenaed the Trump inaugural committee for documents involving possible illegal contributions from foreigners.
The issue may have come to head based on allegations made by Bolton that Trump wanted to interfere in an ongoing SDNY criminal investigation of a Turkish bank.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bolton-suggests-obstruction-trump-sdny-turkey-investigation/story?id=71362785
After Bolton's book was cleared by the official in charge of that department, Trump caused a political appointee Robert O'Brien to come to a different conclusion. O'Brien assigned that task to a former aide to Devin Nunes, the 100% pure Trumpster lawyer Michael Ellis. There was no doubt what his conclusion would be.
Read it all this morning. Want to go through some more of the links. Lots of ideas in it all.
ReplyDeleteI think I will skip commenting at this late enough hour to avoid getting incoherent.
I am now coordinating this activism group, and trying to find a tool for us to use. Conclusion after several days of trying out far too many project management searches.... our best bet is email. With google drives for docs and buy one of the cloud storages if we need more.
There's a lot of good stuff started. But they don't seem to take it to a level that works, even in paid versions. But the free or low cost options are too paired down.
The dollar crashing was a new idea - as in, not mentioned every 10 mins on CNBC or bloomberg radio, so I hadn't heard it.
That would make the US market attractive to foreign investors, because it's cheaper?
Yet I think I read that Grantham is suggesting keeping a little in foreign markets (rather than USA). I haven't read this article. I don't know where I read that.
I listened to the Grantham video. He is saying foreign markets are undervalued.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm wondering about his judgement if he's suggesting them, if dollar is going to sink?
Though he is recommending generally, not with immediate timing. So I imagine that's the answer.
Like his point about venture capitalism still being strong and the healthiest part. It's been part of what's fooled people into blue sky views.
Also not in the articles but in his interview, it's only the last couple weeks of rise that has him convinced of a bubble. The March, April, early May was only getting his attention. But it was the buying into Hertz, and this continuing the last two weeks that gave him the conviction.
Land: I have been discussing nibbling on USD priced foreign stock ETFs. There are a couple of reasons. Their performance over the past several years have substantially lagged the S & P 500 and valuation metrics are more reasonable compared to the U.S. So I am not chasing anything that has been working when I buy a foreign stock ETF.
DeleteThere are a lot of stocks in the U.S. that are clearly IMO well into bubble territory.
As to the USD falling, it has been declining against major foreign currencies for several weeks now. The collapse in value is probably several years in the future and will be due to a number of factors including those mentioned by Stephen Roach.
Now, if I wanted to buy a foreign stock on a foreign exchange, I would have to convert my USDs into the foreign settlement currency. If done tomorrow, I would receive a smaller amount for each USD than a few weeks ago for several foreign currencies. I last bought the CAD when $1 would buy C$1.4, now the rate is around U$1 buys C$1.36.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CAD&view=1Y
If I did the exchange now, I would receive the benefit of the foreign currencies rising in value thereafter.
I could buy the USD priced European security or the ordinary shares priced in Euros and receive that currency translation benefit after the purchase when the foreign currency is rising in value against the USD. The only difference is that I would incur a foreign currency exchange fee when I sold the stock priced in Euros, received Euros in settlement and then converted the Euro proceeds back into USDs.
I do more trading in Canada. A few years back $1 CAD would buy US$1.
Now the CAD to USD exchange rate is about .7378.
CAD to USD
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=1Y
Power Corporation is one of my recents buys, both in terms of USD and CAD priced shares.
Last Friday, the USD priced ordinary shares closed at $17.44 while the CAD priced shares traded in Canada closed at C$23.73. Recently, the CAD has moved up some against the USD. During that period, the ordinary shares priced in USDs would have outperformed the ordinary shares priced in CADs since a CAD buys more USDs.
If the exchange rate was 1 to 1 as of last Friday, PWCDF would be at US$23.73, or 36.07% higher than the actual close with the ordinary shares priced in Canada remaining unchanged. The twofer for the owners of PWCDF would happen when the price rises in CADs, the market in Toronto determining the price, and the CAD gains in value against the USD after the purchase is made in USDs. I also own the shares priced in CADs. If the CAD rose to a 1 to 1 conversion ratio with the USD, I cold sell those shares at Friday's price and then convert the CAD proceeds into USDs to harvest the currency gain.
Yes, I remember your comments on buying foreign. I'm still eyeing INDA for the next pullback.
DeleteI need to make myself a simple chart of the directions.
So US dollar collapsing increases foreign dollar value, so being in foreign stocks, makes that a gain. I had it backwards.
So it's a way to bet against the dollar. And dollar is currently considered very high (minus recent pulling back.)
I'm buying only ADRs.
I found it confusing a few years ago with TOT, Shell and CVX. The sales responded one way to to dollar valuations, but payment was in local dollars and responded opposite. The price of buying and selling was also some in US, some foreign and that's when I lost track of all the push-pull factors. Generally TOT did better than CVX at that time based on dollar value.
Land: To see how currency conversion impacts price, you would need to overlay the USD price chart with the foreign currency priced shares.
DeletePWCDF over the past month is up 14.95% vs. 11.67% for the same stock traded in Canada. The difference is currency related as the CAD has gains a bit against the USD over that period.
The increase in the CAD/USD exchange rate also increases my dividend yield for PWCDF, using the exchange rate at the time of purchase as the starting point. My dividend yield, which is already high, would skyrocket up if the conversion rate went to 1CAD=1USD.
The Double Whammy is just the opposite of the twofer and happens when the ordinary shares priced in CADs decline in value and the CAD falls against the USD.
The ADR price of RDS/B will reflect the price in pounds converted into USDs.
Total's ordinary shares are traded in Euros.
For those energy stocks, currency has played a much smaller role in price compared to up and down movements in energy prices.
I compared a 10 year chart for the ADR RDSB and the Pound priced shares traded in London. I found that the USD priced shares outperformed the shares priced in British pounds by about 15%, going down less due to the USD rising in value against the pound.
That bankrate article on US perceptions of finances is attention getting. Only 24% of Reps say their finances are better. Same as 25% of over 80k income.
ReplyDeleteRoach's article is interesting. But he makes some assumptions that may not hold. Other countries are floating tons of debt too. So relatively speaking, USA may stay above them, even though in trouble. I have wondered how a Dem win could improve that debt problem, when it's obviously needed to keep the economy afloat. But Dem win might improve testing, coordination, policies, so that we get past this virus and back to more normal more quickly. Got to develop better procedures when not counting on "bullying" a virus into going away. And substituting bullying governor's since the virus refused to listen.
MMM - my stock is not going to be doing well on Monday. Even respirators fell. I imagine a lot of their projects are bought in hardware stores and dept stores on the fly. I need to look at their management and see if I have a feel for that being part of the problem.
Cloud article is good. I have several on watch lists. Will add others.
I'm wondering on Berman, if he reversed course and left, because they'd look at law and figured out it was the best way to move someone not corrupt in?
It sounded like Barr couldn't fire. But it was uncertain whether Trump could. So it made even less sense that Trump keeps denying he's involved.
I highly suspect it's about Trump's taxes, and Deutcha bank. Got to wonder what is in his taxes that is so bad that he works so incredibly hard to stop it coming out. Can't be just lack of income, and losses, or a few legit Russian adventures. Has to be even worse.
And that's the stuff he's reported. It's hard to believe that a man who cheats on everything, pays his taxes within the law and only using legal loopholes. So what awful stuff never makes it onto his taxes?
On journalists, Maddow did a segment that Trump et all have fired Voice of America's heads all over the world. They are literally taking over media. VOA is supposed to be neutral. They put out inaccurate (just plan flat false) on Israel. But that's not new with media. And it's not Trump's business to control the media!!
I don't think he needs trumpers to kill journalists. I suspect he'd use backwater types like that Eric black-something (brother to secretary of education).
Nixon has parallels. He has enough sociopathy too for some similar patterns. But Trump makes Nixon look honorable in some ways, and Nixon was competent at running things. This is a new level. Nixon didn't commit treason. Nor was he a grifter on every deal.
You're observation is astute that a major difference is that Nixon was capable of compassion and hearing others. I hadn't heard that story of Nixon asking to speak to the protestors.
I want to know what that inability to hold up a glass of water with one hand is about. Plus that rest, but what was that?
"" noted that Democrats will bring a soufflé dish to a knife fight. The Lincoln Project is bringing a AK-47. ""
That is a GREAT way to put it. The Dems could have won so much more against trump. They kept "threatening" to issue subpoenas. It was insanely frustrating. Schumer let judges get passed so they could leave for vacation. Dems are so proud of Pelosi's demeaning clapping at Trump. But it didn't change anything.
Last night's rally supposedly had about 6660 in attendance. Even if it's due to the virus, that means they don't believe him any more. It can not be from "protestors blocking" since there was more an one entrance.
Land: Yes, Trump is turning VOA into Trump TV, thinking that will improve his standing overseas. It will not.
DeleteFor those with first hand knowledge, protestors at Trump's rally were small in number and were peaceful. The ones that I saw on TV were surrounded by a much larger group of Trumpsters, many carrying automatic weapons.
It is interesting that many of his cult members probably decided to take a pass due to the pandemic. At least they are not totally in Trump's Alternate Reality. The Trump campaign was expecting up to a 40K overflow and had to cancel the outdoor part of the rally due to no one being there.
I don't believe, based on polling, that the enthusiasm for Trump among republicans who approve of him (around 95%) has diminished any.
There is a lot of wildlife on my property at various times, including foxes, deer, wild turkeys and today I noticed a huge snake on my front porch. I do not care for snakes and managed to scare him off since I had two deliveries coming from Amazon. I was almost out of the 365 organic fudge bars and ice cream sandwiches, two new health food discoveries after I started ordering from Amazon Fresh last March. So I needed to get that snack to move in order to assure those deliveries. Health food is a proper classification in my book since those items are "organic". Another discovery at Amazon Fresh, previously unknown to me, was the Yasso Mint Chocolate Chip Greek Yogurt Bars. It does not say "organic" on the box, but I think that he may be since there is no denial that is not organic.
40k outside - that was big plans. That is very nice to see that it wasn't something to see... Especially outdoors that's safer. Wow.
DeleteHis support by his base isn't lower in polls yet. But approval ratings and whether he's handled the virus and economy are low. It has to be some eating into independents, and even his base on those issues. So less enthusiastically supporting him, means lower turn out.
New Yorker's piece on rally had this:
"And said that he instructed a military officer during negotiations with Boeing not to put anything “in writing,” because he wanted to potentially skip out on paying a multimillion-dollar order-cancellation fee for new Air Force One planes."
If true (I have no reason to doubt but am enjoying by fruit and soymilk dessert too much to go check), he is revealing both shear stupidity. Who's going to not notice cause it "wasn't in writing" and incompetence on the job on the deciding process.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/donald-trumps-empty-campaign-rally-in-tulsa#intcid=recommendations_the-new-yorker-bottom-recirc_3d2df4d3-8c6b-4b16-8adc-e8306a4b2ced_text2vec1-mab
The snake may have wanted ice cream, but organic is too expensive and specialized for a snake. I'm glad he took a hint and moved on.
About 5 of these lbs is from when I discovered low calorie ice cream, Enlightened. It is low calorie, but I think was too much a fan. I was asked if and how I will celebrate when done. I said, getting ice cream of course.
(I just got why the word lightened is in the name. I was that busy enjoying it that I didn't look up to think about it. Hum.)
Lol, well that is one way to define health food :). Organic and all natural is very healthy. Yes that is the definition of organic, "must not deny that it isn't with words like "not 100% inorganic"."
I've been enjoying Walden Farms zero calorie foods. I believe they may be 100% inorganic in order to achieve that.
Land: One of the most interesting polls comes out of Iowa. Trump carried Iowa in 2016 by 9 percentage points, but the latest poll has him in a dead heat with Biden.
Deletehttps://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden-1-point/3178743001/
One major issue is that Trump carried the white women without college decrees by 2 points but Biden is now leading among working white women in Iowa 53% to 35%. A newcomer is leading the incumbent republican senator Joni Ernst. While Iowa only has 8 electoral votes, it is not the kind of state Trump can lose with some many others that he won in 2016 far more likely to go with Biden (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania and even Arizona)
See also,
"Although support for President Trump among non-college men stands at 71%, as high as it was four years ago, his support among non-college women has fallen by 11 percentage points, from 61% to just 50%, the poll finds. Hillary Clinton lost this group to Donald Trump by 27 points in 2016. Today, Joe Biden trails him by just 6. If this pattern were to persist through November, it is hard to see how the president could win reelection."
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/06/03/new-polling-eroding-support-from-white-working-class-women-threatens-trumps-reelection/
Iowa in a dead heat is huge. I won't hold my breath since elections are a while away. But it's a good place to be in.
DeleteI don't like to think it, but a man is easier to run against Trump than a woman. Especially one with all the baggage she had (most of it fake from the GOP but they had a long run up to create it.)
Non-college women are what's shifted. He hasn't been more misogynistic lately. But that didn't drive them away to begin with. But something about the virus and his upside down bible, are doing it? Not likely the protests are why.
I'll take it!!
Yes, I sometimes don't get on the scale because I am mad at it. However, I've noticed my clothes don't fit better when i avoid the scale.
ReplyDeleteOn a sidenote, I'm finally back into my usual range. 10 more lbs to go. But over 22 gone. Poof. This is the slowest diet I've never been on. The famous SG couch exercise routine as been a corner stone :). Well that and eating less, and taking long walks. I saw two fox pups the other day. They ran away, but one came back to check me out.
On steroid study, I was reading that doctors were already trying it out to reduce inflammation. So studies are useful since it's known to be harmful in some other viruses. But unfortunately it's not a miracle cure that's not being used. Dosing is low though at 6mg, so it's not a hugely new treatment that way.
On google, I am beginning to think that they built an empire on very high quality tools. The set into place searching and so much else. However, tools lately have been sloppier. Some haven't worked out. Google drive works well. Android is pretty good. But there are these smaller ventures like Google Meet to compete with zoom, that I gave up on. They bought skype and never did anything with it. There have been others I've run into. It may be tiny in a sea of quality. Just pondering if there's something to look at in this over time.
VTR div cut must have had reverberations in the REIT sector.
Lots of good links and thoughts. Thanks!
The Lincoln Project already has an ad out dealing with Trump's Tulsa rally:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOI3ycbaCaE
Wow! That is a great ad!! Painting his a loser is countering the one thing that makes sociopaths (and bullies) gather power & followers.
DeleteThe ending about his health is so visceral.
This video autoplayed next. So far it's good.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vdiw7IkWRJ4
Land: That is a video interview with Rick Wilson, the co-founder of the Lincoln Project. Wilson is one of the many GOP campaign pros that are involved in this organization.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eIoMY5ajOk
Steve Schmidt, who is very intelligent IMO, is another Never Trumpster who is guiding that organization. Most of the leading members are GOP campaign officials who know how to hit hard:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/21/distinguished-pols-week-they-may-beat-trump-all-by-themselves/
Cool.
DeleteI've seen both as guests on TV news.
MSNBC, but I think mostly or only Nicolle Wallace's Deadline Whitehouse. I often like her show. (I got attracted to it when she put down one of trump's tweets early when clearly anchors were expected to read them, and said "I can't read this. No this is crazy. Pause as she processes. No, I'm not going to read this." and continued with the show.)
I couldn't tell you what each one's specific views are, so I'd describe my knowledge of them as "vague." I didn't know they are among those behind this Project!
Amazing how well they know how to express, when DNC is doing nothing of the kind.
A political comment...
Deletethank goodness someone is taking back the GOP party.
It's the only way to keep the far left, Justice dems (not part of DNC party) and other teaparty style takeover efforts from the left...
in check.
Land: I view the GOP as too far gone to be salvaged as a conservative party. The Never Trumpsters are outliers IMO in Trump's party. Some have given up on the GOP like George Will. Moderates have pretty much left that party altogether.
DeleteThere has not been a fiscally conservative political party since the Eisenhower republicans who are long gone. Oddly, Clinton probably came the closest since Eisenhower to being fiscally conservative, managing to balancing the budget near the end of his second term. Both political tribes are fiscally irresponsible now, just expressing that irresponsibility by spending increasingly excessive amounts of borrowed money in different ways.
Before the pandemic hit, the U.S. was running close to $1 trillion per year in budget deficits.
I suspect that the Lincoln Project, which is a PAC, is receiving boatloads of cash now from Democrats. I understand that their ads are running on Fox where Donald has viewed them and gone into apoplexy. They are certainly designed to cause him to suffer narcissistic injury which creates an instantaneous rage response.
After running one of their ads on Fox in early May, this PAC raised 1.4M and has continued to run ads on that network as money pours into its coffers.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/lincoln-project-trump-ad/index.html
https://www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/lincoln-project-mocks-trumps-health-issues-in-fox-news-ad/3158439354214746/
The last contribution report is for the period ending 3/31/20.
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00725820&cycle=2020
When the next report is issued, I expect to see a vast increase in contributions.
Yes, the party is gone. Not sure how the remainers... what they will revive. A smaller 3rd party?
DeletePossibly after a Dem swing, and then dems make a mess (different world of mess than Trump, but it will be a mess)... this Lincoln group may be positioned for the next election. They have campaigning skills. Plus some brains and compassion.
This all doesn't bode well for DNC. This group is supporting Biden and select Senate seats, only now but they aren't dems. The down ballet isn't their aim. Dems aren't going to get as much money as it's funneled into this group. Which will hurt Dems down ballot.
I don't begrudge them a cent though of course. They make effective ads. DNCs still doing, well haven't heard from the party in a while in ads.
On DNC mess... these not-too-bright let a 3rd party run under DNC platform 2xs (platform they don't agree with). Then had to panic as it almost took over. If DNC hadn't authorized an independent funded by a far left takeover tea party type to run, that far left would have gotten must less power.
All I can say is so glad this group has arose and is getting funding.
The key is voter suppression and fraud. That's where Trump will turn.
Trump's motivation according to marketwatch's article, is to blame China. Cutting off the deal because they signed it 2 months after not being straight with him (that's his story).
DeleteHe's fishing for angles for his campaign.
Land: Trump may have found a way to send stocks up. Have some nitwit say something after the market closes that scares the Stock Jocks and then say we were just funning.
DeleteBased on Bolton's allegations, Donald has been played by dictators and was begging China for help in his reelection effort. He also gave a green light to China's construction of gulags for the Uighur Muslim population according to Bolton.
Those allegations make Trump look weak vs. China and an enabler of human rights abuses.
So he is talking out of both sides of his mouth now, as the saying goes. Sending a message that he is "very torn" about keeping the Phase 1 deal, which was sent last month by him, and recently imposing some sanctions on China for its actions against the Uighur population, try to reverse that narrative for electioneering purposes only.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-s-move-against-china-its-uighur-oppression-makes-him-ncna1231624
The message that he wants to send is that he is tough on China.
He will not terminate the Phase 1 trade deal prior to the election.
Stock futures have turned down this evening after Peter Navarro told Fox News that Trump has decided to terminate the China trade deal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.foxnews.com/media/peter-navarro-trump-china-trade-deal-over
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
3,073.00 -37.70 -1.21%
Last Updated: Jun 22, 2020 at 8:47 p.m. CDT
If Navarro is correct that Trump will terminate the trade deal, the market's reaction will be far more severe than what is shown now in the future's market.
At 9:22 P.M. C.S.T., Donald published a tweet saying that the trade deal was still intact. S & P futures are up 6.8 points.
DeleteI suspect Navarro convinced Donald to terminate the China trade deal and then Robert Lighthizer and Mnuchin convinced Trump to go back on what he told Navarro. Trump is impulsive and that train of events is the most plausible IMO.
I wasn't looking at futures figuring they weren't going to show anything.
DeleteThanks!
That'd be big.
It must have been walked back or decided it's not a disaster because futures are even now.
In 2018 trade deal took a week or even two to sink is and get a worried reaction.
I will buy if there's a pullback. I will buy if there's a pullback. I will buy if there's a pullback. I will... Key is figuring out, when. Usually when it seems unreasonable to think the market will come back up, is the day.
Ah...That sounds like what happened. Or even that Trump thought it worth terminating and got talked out of it as futures dove.
DeleteCould be a bumpy few days, if more waffling happens.
So, tomorrow will be a big up day in celebration of the strength of the president's deal. That's the way it works? Since "not bad" news is "fantastically good" in the current blue sky world.
I think you're right that he's not going to terminate it, and he's just playing for the cameras.
DeleteAnd the market is taking this as just super Grande news, that the bad news didn't hold up till morning.
I've got no particular buy or sell plans into this. The graphs on media last night show so much spike. It really should be reflected in the market. At least a waffling.
My LMT order to buy back the 2 at $371 filled afterhouse. I decided not to wait for 368.50. I'd sold them at 413. That's 10%. Easier with such a small amount.
ReplyDeleteOh well. Had I waited, they are at 360 now. Could have gained more.
DeleteS&P 500 Index
ReplyDelete3,042.57 -88.72 -2.83%
Last Updated: Jun 24, 2020 at 11:42 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
Using a 1 year Yahoo Finance chart for the S & P 500, the 200 day SMA line was at 3,020.33 as of yesterday'
The Stock Jocks are finding it more difficult to ignore the spike in new coronavirus cases.
Donald is doing what he can to keep the pandemic alive and growing by holding Mass Infection Events in Tulsa and in Phoenix yesterday attended by about 3K students crammed into a church. Ignoring social distancing and refusing to wear a mask have become statements about personal freedom minus the responsibility that goes with it. Those rallies are colossally irresponsible.
I have been reducing my stock allocation and have become even more cautious, viewing the downside risk as more likely than meaningful upside.
I would describe what I am doing now as hyper cautious with an increasing number of dividend harvest trades.
That posture may endure until there is an effective vaccine. The virus is not contained.
Given the Fed's Jihad Against Savers, which is likely to continue for an extended period, credit risk free alternatives are hardly worth the effort for me.
Cash is building up in my brokerage sweep accounts through a steady flow interest and dividend income, proceeds from maturing bonds, CDs and treasuries and net selling of stock positions.
I did pick up my purchases of double short ETFs over the past week. By more I am referring, for example, to buying 4 or 5 shares vs. 1 or 2.
I broke down and book Bolton's book. After reading about 30 pages so far, my first conclusion is that Bolton is an egomaniac.
Ah, the 200 MA explains the point that it pivoted this morning.
ReplyDeleteIt's so strange. The blue sky view is getting dented. (I won't say "broken" yet.)
Apparently the IMF changed their estimates to be much worse. Maybe that had an impact? I would have thought the testimony yesterday would have dented the views, yesterday. Maybe it was after watching the news at night, that it's finally come home a little.
There's been good news. Fauci says if we can get a vaccine, it will be by the fall, which is superfast. Several vaccines are in 3rd stage of testing, the last stage. Ramp up on production is being done even before proven, so it can get into people's hands (well, into their arms) faster.
I should do some buying back of sold at higher shares.
But mostly, I need to get money in. Half or more of my funds. So I'm waiting for more pullback. I need to NOT missing it! Plus it will be fun to buy some individual or indices for trading. But that's not most of my plan.
I plan to get in because I have at least 8 years before needing this money. I hope to be in div paying that won't cut. Or in sectors that are hot, but less that way. And use it as a substitute for banking.
If rates go up, that would reduce stock appeal. However, it would likely mean the economy is healthier, so market would be going up. So it'd be safe enough to put into the market and then keep an eye on whether this calculus changes.
I should be getting my niece to make her first buys here.
So the Duck flew all the way to Phoenix for a whopping 3000 people, 1/2 of Tulsa's? That hasn't made the news. Only the irresponsible part where he's set up a virus stewing site, is getting talked about.
After Bolton's interview, I concluded that he isn't much of a thinker. He may be a good strategist or postion-taker, and that's how he got into these posts.
But egomaniac is a good term for what I saw. He didn't want to testify because "dems did it wrong" but when Senate didn't accept his testimony, he didn't go public. It's all so contradictory. It's not based in a logical ideology. It makes sense only if based in emotional positions, and sense of self-importance, over doing anything that matters.
I still think Pelosi should have held out for agreement for Senate witnesses. Pressure was building on McConnell.
Land: I have not read Fauci's testimony but the following is more equivocal on the timing:
Delete“We feel cautiously optimistic, based on the concerted effort and the fact we are taking financial risks — not risks to safety, not risks to the integrity of the science, but financial risk to be able to be ahead of the game — so that when, and I believe it will be when and not if, we get favorable candidates with good results, we will be able to make them available to the American public,” Fauci testified Tuesday. “It would put us at the end of this calendar year and the beginning of 2021.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/23/21300563/coronavirus-vaccine-fauci-trump-testimony-house
Basically, he is saying, if everything goes right, we may have a vaccine late this year or early in 2021.
I have recently read an article that antibodies created naturally by those who recovered from the virus did not last very long.
Today represented a tiny recalibration of the likelihood that the Blue Sky scenario will happen.
I view the recalibration as meaningless with the Blue Sky scenario still being priced at close to a 100% probability. I give it less than 50%. I am personally comfortable with 30%.
It is easy to be optimistic about the future when you can not be proven wrong in the present.
I view the stock market as being at dangerous levels based on excessive optimism about the future. As I have been saying, I see no evidence that the coronavirus is going away and will still be around when the seasonal flue season hits. And, a lot of people are doing everything they can to increase the infection rate, hospitalizations and deaths.
I am using a variety of risk mitigation techniques and trading strategies, but the end result is that my stock allocation is being reduced slightly as the market rallies.
One example is that I sold today my UBS position, just 70 shares at $11.15, having just received most of the annual dividend payment. The sell decision was based on a feel that the stock would fall and I wanted to reset my average cost per share at a lower level.
My lowest cost lot was bought at $7.9 but most of the shares were bought at $10.93:
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Item # 3.B. Bought Back 50 UBS at $10.93;10 at $10.41; 5 at $9.71 and 5 at $7.9:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/bpoprp-cio-ciopra-enba-fdus-gis-hban.html
So I got rid of that highest cost 50 shares at a slight profit and can now reset the position with a lower average cost number than the 70 shares sold today.
I am in no hurry but would probably take a look at restarting a small ball "purchase program" at less than $9.5.
I am also using a dividend harvest strategy. The general idea is to hold for a very short period (60 days would be too long), harvest one dividend and sell at a profit. I am generally buying stocks that are already depressed, with dividend yields over 4%, that are in my buy range in case I become an involuntary long term holder.
A variation of dividend harvest is to sell about 1/2 at a profit and keep the remainder through the next ex dividend date, possibly buying back the shares sold after a 5%+ decline from the original purchase.
An example which I will discuss is a 100 shares purchase of the CEF JDD at $7.51, with all shares held through the quarterly dividend date a few days ago ($19.6 for 100 shares). I then sold 50 at $8.015. A possible repurchase of the 50 shares sold would be at less than $7.13.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/JDD
I will take back my comments on Bolton a little. He's being interviewed by CNN's Wolf.
DeleteI will give him credit for seeing the problems with Trump. And saying them outloud. The is better than some have. He is going further, with details, than other conservatives.
That bar for speaking out, is very low. But he is passing it.
Dividend harvesting - I haven't considered doing that. As long as it's a stock that's safe to get stuck in, that could be effective.
I owned PFL for a while. It was in a tight trading range. I wonder if that would make a good div harvest stock, especially for the rest of this year. It was obvious that it would go up to divs and down after, and was being used for harvesting when I owned it.
I've noticed LMT has 3. debt ratio. It was fine when I bought it. I have to find out why. Hoping it's stocking up on funds during covid.
The Fauci quote matching in gist what he said on CNN earlier today. (Or recorded and replayed today.)
It's going to be a long year. I want to visit with family. I also want to get my teeth cleaned. Not sure what to do about that.
My pool opened up. You have to wear a mask at all times except when in the water.
The talk about maybe needing new lockdowns is probably a key factor. NY and surrounding are trying to add a quarantine for travelers to there. (Not sure how that works, with cars able to drive in, and not China like gov't tracking abilities.)
ReplyDeleteLand: There is no stopping the virus without a vaccine. New York, Connecticut and NJ will not be checking vehicles. The quarantine is voluntary with penalties attached if you caught violating the rules. While that may be better than no quarantine effort, it will not stop the spread back into NYC and major metropolitan areas in NJ and Connecticut. The virus is so contagious and spreads so quickly that hot spots will emerge again in places that are more or less under control now.
DeleteMy thinking on this pandemic has evolved some. It is clear that the most hyper protective areas needed to adopted early for those most susceptible to hospitalization and death (e.g. nursing homes). For everyone else, mask wearing needs to be compelled with few jurisdictions making that mandate.
If you mean PPL, it is a possible dividend harvest candidate. It has struggled to move higher when the price approaches $30 and is demonstrating weakness along with several other utility stocks like Duke Energy (DUK).
Looking at a 1 year PPL chart, which is what I would do to identify a potential dividend harvest candidate, the March crash in price did go below $20, followed by a rebound to $25, then a dip down to $21.7, followed by a lot of chop in the $25-$26 range, a spike to $30 and decline back to channel trade between $25 to $26. Larger investors so far appear willing to stabilize price near $25, though without much conviction if stocks get slammed again which would likely lead to a decline below $20, and a more clear cut buying opportunity.
I look at dividend harvesting as a income alternative when the cash used to fund the purchase is yielding .01% (1M earns $100 in 1 year at .01%) Some of the dividend harvest candidates are really small small ball round-trips. One example is an 11 share purchase of HBAN shortly before the ex dividend date in my Vanguard account which I sold for a $30.33 profit. With the dividend, that 11 share lot produced about 1/3rd of the income that $1M would generate at .01%.
The snapshot is now in the Gateway Post for regional banks near the bottom:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2011/10/regional-bank-basket-strategy-gateway.html
I am really hyper in this kind of strategy in my Roth IRA accounts where I am building up cash more rapidly by selling stocks bought in March and April. I added about 100 names in the Roth IRA accounts during those two months. I no longer discuss those trades here since they are way too many of them. I am not including snapshots of the trades anymore in whatever Gateway Post fits the transaction I am discussing about 1 out of 4 trades in my taxable accounts.
That mask wearing reminds me. Dr. Fauci also added that S. Korea has had only 300 deaths. They did early mask wearing and tracing and developed tests (I don't understand why we don't have info on tests from other countries. Well, Trump.) So those actions are already proven to work. Dr. Fauci added that they worked early on. Now it's like we let a cancer diagnoses go from early detection to not as early, so we may need more.
DeleteI meant PFL, in Pimco. I owned it over two years ago. With monthly divs it has that opportunity. It's go leverage and accounting that I had no hope of understanding, so I'd sold.
But the PPL assessment is interesting. I own 10 underwater shares. So could easily add more, as planned to eventually.
This all would be a lot simpler if I'd bought a lot on March 24th and held onto it for the next 5 years. (It'd also be simpler if I had a gifted crystal ball.)
Land: PFL is not one of the leveraged bond CEFs that I would consider buying. It sells at a premium to net asset value per share and does not disclose the credit rating allocations. I looked through their portfolio and there is a significant amount of junk. That category can perform well but is dangerous IMO during a recessionary period of unknown duration and depth.
DeleteI owned ANGL for awhile but have already eliminated by position. I am trading some leveraged bond CEFs, selling my highest cost lots when I can profitably, as I have recently done with BTZ.
I mentioned buying PPT several times. I will sell my highest cost 200 shares when and if it turns profitable.
I have also discussed here buying FAX and GDO.
I have not discussed purchases here of ERC and WIW. I am close to eliminating WIW and have turned off dividend reinvestment in anticipation of selling the entire position. It is the lowest yielding among the leverage bond CEFs that I own. All of those CEFs are monthly dividend payers.
The cost of leverage has come down for most of the leverage bond CEFs with the decline in the federal funds rate. Most of the borrowings are at a spread to a short term libor rate, with the 1 month Libor being common. That rate is now hugging the mid-point of the federal funds range of zero to .25%. Borrowing costs with the spread and any fees are generally running at less than 1%. This creates more income for the fund to distribute since the spread between the borrowing cost and the yield on assets bought with borrowed money has expanded. As bonds mature, however, the reinvestment options are less favorable than the yields of maturing securities. I will discuss an example in my next comment.
So what you describe are why I left PFL, except that you've got a more depth understanding. I haven't looked at the other CEFs. I will just to get a feel for such vehicles.
DeleteI think you're saying that one significant problem with these leverage bond CEFs is the same as an individual investor faces. Rates have sunk. As their current deals end, they can't keep the same level of income. Their skill with leveraging helps. However that's not a fundamental. And in down economy, fundamentals are what you can count on.
I received notice that EBAY will call early my remaining 8 SU bonds maturing on 10/15/20. The coupon is 3.25%.
ReplyDeleteI bought 10 during March at a total cost of 99.525:
Item # 6.C.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/03/bpoprp-cio-ciopra-enba-fdus-gis-hban.html
I mentioned in that post that EBAY could redeem the bond on or after 7/15/20 without a make whole payment and has already raised the funds to make the redemption when I bought the 10 bond lot.
Receiving the 3.25% + a profit on an investment grade bond in 4 months is a gift today and indicates that institutional investors were clearly mispricing the bond.
I later sold 2 at 100.350, noting that I expected the bond to be called on 7/15/20. And, that is what is about to happen.
Now, what do I do with the proceeds. Can I buy another Baa1/BBB+ bond maturing in a few months with a 3% yield. The answer is of course no way. The redemption proceeds will land in my Fidelity Government Money Market fund yielding .01% and will have a lot of company in that account. The risk/reward balance needs to turn more in my favor.
The 30 year treasury bond closed today at a 1.44% yield. The five year is at .33%. The 1 month is at .11%.
I keep wondering if Bolton didn't testify and knew Senate wouldn't have him, because he doesn't want to be under oath?
ReplyDeleteSpace case that I was. I meant to mention South Korea as an idea for foreign investment. Their better handling may give them an economic leg up.
I guess at 3pm the serious money decided it's enough of the downs and good to buy into. Meanwhile, states that refused to take this seriously, are now halting their openings. They don't have the courage to shutdown again.
I've been wondering why more cases now seem like younger people. I have yet to hear news media assessing or even asking if anyone was in a protest.
Land: This recently published article in the Atlantic goes into detail about the recent surge in infections.
Deletehttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/second-coronavirus-surge-here/613522/
There is a surge in younger people becoming infected. I would attribute that surge to their prevailing unwillingness to take precautions. Numerous videos of packed bars filled with young people, none of whom are wearing masks or practicing social distancing, is one new major source of transmission.
I am expecting the daily death and hospitalization rates to surge in July compared to June.
https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=msntrk
Trump will continue to hold Mass Infection Events including the republican convention in Jacksonville and will downplay (or entirely dismiss)what is happening in the real world.
Fox news personalities will continue to downplay the health impacts.
"New research explores how conservative media misinformation may have intensified the severity of the pandemic"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/25/fox-news-hannity-coronavirus-misinformation/
Fox "news" propagandists like Laura Ingraham are telling people there is no evidence to support the proposition that social distancing slows the spread and the scientists recommending mask wearing are "liberal" propagandists.
https://www.salon.com/2020/06/17/hydroxychloroquine-truther-laura-ingraham-urges-trump-campaign-to-ignore-alarmist-covid-drivel/
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2020/fox-news-host-laura-ingraham-said-theres-no-real-scientific-basis-for-social-distancing-shes-wrong/
The inevitable surge in infections did cause me to eliminate my position in EPRPRC. I have difficulty seeing how movie theatres and hotels can return to normal operations before there is an effective vaccine and many will go bankrupt before that happens.
Just about every country has done a better job than the U.S.
Europe probably needs to ban travel from the U.S., as the EU is contemplating doing now.
Trump and the Trumpsters are a major reason why the U.S. will end up being the worldwide leader in per capita infections, deaths and hospitalizations.
The info in your post makes me cry.
DeleteIt's so surreal. We modern info age where facts can be checked. We have people living in a sociopath's fake world, while dying from it.
Apparently the death part does seem real enough to some, to burst the bubble a little.
This is so bad for the USA too on the world stage. One positive with Biden is that he has good relationships with so many that we need to rebuild with. I hope he stays healthy till then.
---
The question is now that spx is below 200 dma (got an alert at 10:50), will the market breach it and continue below 200 dma for a while?
I'm guessing the governor announcements to please stay home (I just heard CA and SC's. I thought I heard TX yesterday.), will get this to continue to be taken seriously.
So I'm not buying here. I need to buy back some indices, IWM, SPY mostly. A couple other stocks. But also do a lot of initial buy-ins.
Laddering on the say down though says I probably should be nibbling, even if I'm not.
Yesterday end of day's rise... does make a pause on whether this market can breach downward. It had the look of short covering, except that wouldn't be the place to cover bets of going down more. Covering for bets on future rise would be a push of more selling into the sell off, so that's not it.
Prior efforts also ended decisively after 3 to 2 days. But they were before public announcements by governors.
Something about WH Task Force will be briefing shortly. That may be a market mover, down or up.
I'm going to be doing some planting today. The rest of the bought plants that have been living in my house, waiting for me to plant them.
--
Why is DC statehood coming up now? Part of BLM (since it's known affectionately as "cocoa city" for a reason.) It'd make more sense to not push fear into GOP diehards of not losing power now, and wait till there's a DNC sweep.
What I haven't heard but would be good here, is renaming all those sports teams that insult indigenous native americans.
Oddly, your post was posted much earlier, but it first appeared just a little bit ago, 11 or 12pm, in my emails.
I knew I had one more thought I meant to include.
DeleteBiden's said he wants to move taxing back up to 28% instead of current 21%. (Still down from prior 36%)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/wall-street-executives-brace-for-biden-win-as-trump-fades-in-polls.html
CEOs seem to still be switching to supporting Biden, but how will that tax expectation change market calculations?
Interesting - CNBC isn'tn showing the WH press briefing on the virus, as Pence is talking.
DeleteLand: Pence previously stated that the pandemic would be "largely behind us" by Memorial Day. That is the Memorial Day that occurred on May 25, 2020, not the one next year.
Deletehttps://www.businessinsider.com/mike-pence-predicted-the-pandemic-would-be-behind-us-by-memorial-day-2020-5
It is for the best to ignore predictions being made by Donald and Pence and to just focus on the hard data and trends.
Land: I would anticipate that, when and if the Democrats gain control over the House, Senate and the Presidency, corporate taxes will be raised over certain taxable income thresholds. Earnings per share growth has been significantly enhanced due to the corporate tax cuts and share buybacks.
DeleteBefore the pandemic hit, many companies were not generating Y-O-Y earnings growth, even when looking at the Non-GAAP numbers, but were managing to produce E.P.S. growth through share buybacks and lower effective tax rates.
Share buybacks started to go down in 2019 compared to 2016.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf
The decline has accelerated this year.
https://ycharts.com/companies/FDS/stock_buyback
Banks have by and large quit altogether to preserve capital.
Dividend increases for several companies will stall or be cut back with a significant corporate tax increase.
All of this will impact, sooner or later, the multiples that investors are willing to pay for negative or anemic earnings growth.
The major prop for stocks is the prediction that interest rates and inflation will remain abnormally low for a very long time and no income alternatives.
In this environment, growth company stocks reach stratospheric and unsustainable valuations.
I think stocks are holding up really well and are doing far better that I would expect given a rational and informed assessment of what is actually happening in the real world.
The dominant opinion remains a belief in the Blue Sky scenario that has only received a ding or two this week.
S&P 500 3,011.47-72.29 (-2.34%)
ReplyDeleteAs of 3:08PM EDT.
The 200 day SMA line, using a 1 year chart, is at 3,020.96.
Looks like close below 200 day is likely. Unless there's a run up into the close before a weekend of bad news.
DeleteI had a buy order 5 SPY at 300.80. Then cancelled it before that last move down.
You've talked about not listening to CNBC. I realized I listen to learn terms and concepts that exist in economics/market.
There's a lot of enthusiasm on there still today.
The Fed stimulus is being counted. I expect another bill to be difficult to get agreement to pass.
If there is a downtrend, there will be jawboning to counter it at a critical technical point.
I'm not commenting on buyback and taxes because I need to read all that more carefully over the weekend.
Not a knock out punch, but closed under 200 MDA.
DeleteLand: After SPX pierced its 200 day SMA line, a rally started at around 3.37 P.M. E.D.T that briefly took the index to 3,023. That rally quickly fizzled, starting at 3:47 and the index declined into the close. The close of 3,009.05 was below the 200 day SMA line.
DeleteThe VIX remains elevated within an ongoing Unstable VIX Pattern, closing at 34.73, up 7.79%.
Treasuries and investment grade bond ETFs finished in positive territory. Junk bonds, which are more sensitive to actual and perceived credit risks, decline with JNK finishing down .91%.
Overall, my impression for the week is that the market is vulnerable to a significant slide.
Some of the negative vibes today were associated with more major firms pulling ads from Facebook and Twitter.
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
216.08-19.60 (-8.32%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/?p=FB
And there were more confirmations this week that the Covid-19 pandemic is out of control, notwithstanding Donald's assurance that it was going away.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-says-coronavirus-going-away-his-own-task-force-disagrees-n1232061
Did I ever report what I learned on divs being paid?
ReplyDeleteYou have to own at 4am on ex-div date.
If you sell during regular hours day before or during afterhours, you won't get div.
If you buy any time including afterhours and hold thru 8pm final close, you will get the div.
So says Ameritrade customer service help.
"the market is vulnerable to a significant slide. "
ReplyDeleteThat's my impression. Bumpy going down. It will take a while for money to believe it.
Meanwhile NYC is opening up more! But the out of control in lots of areas is undeniable.
Me: "closed below 200"
You: "detail... moved ....detail... moved that way... detail... exacting, closed below"
I wish I had that skill. I still don't know how you do it so quickly.
I'll say it now though it's not proven yet. Wall street has changed sides. Hence agreeing to stop up Trump's misinformation and election corruption channels, on their freedom for hate.
ADL is partnered with NAACP on this boycott. Big names. Maybe it will work. Verizon and Unilever were the names pulling out today. (Unilever is a hodge podge of household and food? Ive never looked at them.)
I think this is the first time I've heard of wall street companies attacking other parts of wall street companies for culture.
Land: I sold Unilever (UL) today in a Roth IRA account at $56.64 and have traded that one and UN several times. I clipped the last quarterly dividend payment and sold for about a 10% profit on the shares with the highest cost lot bought at $51.8 (5/1) and the lowest at $50.52 (5/7/20). That was a dividend harvest.
DeleteIn a taxable account, my last discussion was to note a UL elimination at $52.625:
Item # 1.A. Sold 70 UL at $52.625-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: +$2,412.2
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/12/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.html
I will generally buy UL rather than UN in a retirement account since the UK does not apply a withholding tax on UL's dividend while the Netherlands does for UN, or at least it did when I last checked.
The ordinary UL shares trade in the U.K. and are price in pounds.
https://www.unilever.com/investor-relations/shareholder-centre/dividends/dividend-history/
1 ADR = 1 ordinary share
Lol. Just saw another Lincoln ad. "Slow the testing down." It's good! It's like when Avenatti came out, hard hitting. But this won't end with the Lincoln group as felons.
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/06/bxmx-cswc-emp-fdn-onb-nwhuf-pdm-orcc.html