AMCR, AMKBY, BDN, CLPR, COLB, FBIOX, GIS, JRI, KMI, OPI, PDM, RYLD, TLS

Economy: 

The BLS just reported that the economy added 199,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment falling to 3.9%. According to MarketWatch, the consensus estimates were for 422,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Employment Situation Summary Average hourly earnings increased by 19 cents. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 4.7%. The average work week was unchanged at 34.7 hours. The BLS revised the October and November job numbers up by 141,000. 

The non-seasonally adjusted U-6 number declined to 7.2% from 7.4% in November. That number was at 11.6% in December 2020. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization  

Jobs report December 2021: Hiring falters as payrolls rise only 199,000

The current reaction, as of publication of this post, is to take stock indexes down, killing a very feeble pre-market rally. 

Fed minutes December 2021: Federal Reserve puts wheels in motion for balance sheet reduction

The Stocks Jocks are experiencing an ongoing anxiety attack triggered by two sentences in the Fed's minutes: 

"Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate. Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures."

For now, the FED intends to keep rolling over proceeds into new purchases, instructing the NY FED trading desk as follows: 

"Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS."

The FED balance sheet is in extreme bloat mode as a result of its multiple QE programs. System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities  

$8.75746T  as of 12/29/21

The FED previously signaled that it would end QE soon and start to raise the FF rate. 

M2 Money Supply- 10 Year Chart: 

1 Year CPI Trend Through November 2021: 

Last CPI Report: 6.8% annual through November, non-seasonally adjusted. Consumer Price Index Summary - 2021 M11 Results 

The CPI report for December is scheduled for release on 1/12/22. 

Current FF Rate: ZIRP, extremely absurd IMO given the inflation numbers and the buildup in inflationary pressures in the economy that appear to be sticky so far.  

The CME projection is currently predicting a 75.5% chance that the FED will raise the FF rate to at least .25% to .5% in March, a totally meaningless gesture toward restraining inflation. Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool The odds of a 50 basis point increase is at 4.1% and 25 basis points at 71%. 

Whatever increases in the FF rate this year, they will have zero impact on inflation given the starting point as 0% to .25%. Inflation will just have to fix itself. 

The FED is still on vacation as an inflation fighter and will remain so for a long time. It is trapped since a change in monetary policy that would actually impact inflation would trigger a recession and have a substantial negative impact on the government's budget deficits. Total U.S. government debt was at $29.4948+ trillion as of 1/5/22. Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data For the fiscal year ending 9/30/21, the budget deficit was $2.772 trillion and at $3.132 trillion for the fiscal year ending 9/30/20. Monthly Budget Review

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

This investing legend (Byron Wien) has been predicting surprises for the last 37 years. Here's how he did last year — and what he's forecasting now - MarketWatch For the 2022 stock market, he predicts that value will outperform growth, high volatility continuing, a correction approaching 20%, and no gain for the S & P 500.  

23 dividend stocks that can pass this strict quality screen - MarketWatch Of the 23 stocks listed, I currently own 16: KMI (see Item # 1 below); WMB, XOM, CVX, ABBV, AMCR (see Item # 2.J. Below), GILD, SO, ETR, K, AEP, BMY, EVRG, MMM, PEG and WEC.  Only two of those positions are above 100 shares: WMB and AMCR

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Marjorie Taylor Greene account permanently suspended from Twitter for spreading false Covid claims- The Washington Post I mentioned in a recent comment that scores of U.S. citizens, well into the millions,  through their actions and false claims relating to pandemic, have committed involuntary or criminally negligent manslaughter, though none of them will be be charged in this life. Perhaps in the hereafter they will be judged culpable and receive the appropriate punishment. 

Opinion: Civil war in the United States is far more likely than you think. In fact, it may have already begun. - MarketWatch The author is referring to republicans who are already heavily armed and have already proven their willingness to engage in an insurrection and violence.  

GOP officials in Arizona’s largest county affirm 2020 election was secure in rebuttal to Trump claims, republished at MSN.Com from GOP officials in Arizona’s largest county affirm 2020 election was secure in rebuttal to Trump claims - The Washington Post. 

It needs to be remembered for as long as you live that 79% of republicans believe Donald is honest and almost as many view him as a role model for their children. (Question 9: 9/23/20 - Biden Keeps Above 50 Percent Mark With Steady Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 63% Don't Expect To Know Winner Of 2020 Race On Election Night | Quinnipiac University Poll) 

Facts can not change their opinions and it is futile to even try. 

So it does not matter how many audits show that Biden won in Arizona. In Trump's America, Biden stole the election in Arizona, audits and facts to the contrary are dismissed; reality creations and false narratives, no matter how bizarre, absurd and frivolous are readily accepted without question; and no real proof is required to support that contention as a starting point. It is a party where fact free conspiracies, fake news outlets like Fox, and anonymous social media posts have immunized tribe members from any reliance on reliable information. 

How Republicans became the party of Trump's election lie after Jan. 6 - The Washington Post

Why Trump’s Hold on the G.O.P. Is Unrivaled After the Capitol Riot - The New York Times Trump is the republican party. 

One year later, mentioning January 6th at a Trump event doesn't go well - YouTube At least the Trumpsters are consistent in their ability to regurgitate false information fed to them and their profound inability to exercise good judgment based on facts. 

The new Netflix movie "Don't Look Up" was obviously made with Trump, republican politicians in general, Trump's True Believers and Fox "news" being the inspiration. Even though the comet that was on collision path with earth was visible, and scientists were in agreement that it was a planet killer, the response of the Trumpian President, played by Meryl Streep, was to "Don't Look Up" and believe what you see or the experts. Don't Look Up (2021 film) - Wikipedia There was a skit about a poll of Americans, where 20% said there was no comet and most others believed it would not hit earth, notwithstanding the clearly irrefutable facts. Some republicans will start to believe in climate change shortly before they are burned to crisp. One scene near the end of that movie has 1 Trumpster in a large crowd finally looking up, seeing the comet coming down on top of him, and saying they lied to us shortly before impact. 

California man Thomas Apollo arrested on charges of attacking vaccination clinic, injuring workers - The Washington Post

Nearly three-quarters of GOP doubt legitimacy of Biden's win: poll | TheHill Voting for a republican, which I have done in the past (e.g. Senators Alexander and Corker), is now viewed by me as tantamount to voting against Democracy in America. What republicans tried to do in the last election and what they are doing thereafter in state legislatures and with state election commissions, permits no other conclusion. The GOP, totally controlled by Don the Authoritarian, a demagogic psychopath, is America's anti-Democracy party. I am now a one issue voter. 

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1. Bought 100 KMI at  $15.89-Vanguard Taxable Account: 

Quote: Kinder Morgan Inc

"Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. Access to reliable, affordable energy is a critical component for improving lives around the world. We are committed to providing energy transportation and storage services in a safe, efficient, and environmentally responsible manner for the benefit of people, communities and businesses we serve. We own an interest in or operate approximately 83,000 miles of pipelines and 144 terminals. Our pipelines transport natural gas, renewable fuels, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2 and other products, and our terminals store and handle various commodities including gasoline, diesel fuel, chemicals, ethanol, metals and petroleum coke." Asset Map 

KMI SEC Filings

Kinder Morgan Projects

Kinder Morgan History

Given the difficulty in building any major new pipelines in the U.S. due to environmental, regulatory  and political opposition (e.g. cancellations of TRP's Keystone pipeline project) as well as the high cost compared to existing facilities, I view KMI's existing infrastructure to be a monopoly or close to it, depending on the geographic area. The same could be said for railroads.  In the U.S. the Federal Energy Commission has to approve a new pipeline permit using an economic need standard. 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Bought 10 KMI at $12.5; 5 at $12.32; 2 at $11.95- Fidelity Taxable (11/7/20 Post) I still own those shares. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually), last raised from $.2625 in the 2021 second quarter 

Kinder Morgan Dividend History

Yield at $15.89 = 6.8%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/29/21

Recent News: Kinder Morgan Announces 2022 Financial Expectations (expects distributable cash flow (DCF) of $2.07 per share; expect 2022 DCF to exceed discretionary capital expenditures and dividend payments by about $870M)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Kinder Morgan Announces $0.27 Per Share Dividend and Results for Third Quarter Of 2021

"third quarter net income attributable to KMI of $495 million, compared to $455 million in the third quarter of 2020; and distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1,013 million, compared to $1,085 million in the third quarter of 2020. Adjusted Earnings were $505 million for the quarter, versus $485 million in the third quarter of 2020."

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.22

DCF per share = $.447 (rounded up) 

Reports (available to Schwab customers): The lack of enthusiasm for KMI manifested in the following 3 reports is consistent with the recent lackluster total return and 5 year chart. When I am looking for a new investment in today's super charged P/E multiple and low dividend stock market, that is more comforting than concerning for a new investment in KMI.  

Morningstar (12/7/21): 3 stars with a FV of $17.5 and classified as a narrow moat company (notes that KMI estimates that it transports 40% of the daily U.S. natural gas consumption; and notes that more than 90% of KMI's contract are take or pay)

Argus (10/22/21): Hold, main concern is debt level. 

S & P (10/21/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $19. With that PT and the dividend yield, it is hard to explain the 3 star rating at the current price. 

2. Small Ball: All About Risk Mitigation 

A. Averaged Up JRI-Bought 13 Shares at $15.07: 

Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview

Sponsor's Website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund 

JRI SEC Filings

This fund owns common and preferred stocks, plus some bonds issued by equity REITs, utilities and energy infrastructure companies. 

While this 13 share purchase was a rare average up, I am basically just buying back shares purchased with dividends that were sold at $16.31. Just more small ball risk mitigation. 

Number of Holdings as of 11/30/21: 468

Allocations as of 11/30/21: 

Leveraged: With short term interest rates likely to rise, this fund needs to deleverage but that probably will not happen IMO. The sponsor reports the fund was leveraged at 30.1% as of 11/30/21. 

Nuveen Real Asset Income and  Growth Fund (last SEC Filed semiannual report for the period ending on 6/30/21). This report includes another leveraged CEF JRS. The average interest rate on borrowed funds was reported at .92% for this period (page 54). The net unrealized appreciation was $22.774+M as of 6/30/21 (page 51)

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Added to JRI-Bought 10 at $11.8; 10 at $11.66 (8/1/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 5 JRI at $8.95; 10 at $8.09; 10 at $10.16; 10 at $10.66 (5/16/20 Post)

Data as of 12/15/21 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value per share = $16.79

Closing Market Price: $15.10

Discount: -10.07%

Average 3 year Discount: -11.68%

Sourced: JRI-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)

New AC per share this Account: $10.93 (120 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 12/16/21 after add

The AC increased from $10.42. I have sold all shares purchased with dividends and have turned off dividend reinvestment. 

Dividend: Monthly at $.0965 per share ($1.158 annually)

Yield at $10.93 AC per share: 10.59%, rounded down. 

Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Pared JRI Again-Sold 12.661 shares at $16.31-Remaining Shares Bought With Dividends in Fidelity Taxable Account (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.03); Item # 2.C. Pared JRI-Sold 22.235 at $16.11(8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.31); Item # 2.A. Pared JRI-Sold 30 at $15.9-highest cost shares (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.73); Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48  (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35); Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)   

JRI Realized Gains to Date = $480.92

B. Sold 2+ GIS Shares at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 : 

Quote: General Mills Inc

GIS SEC Filings

GIS Analyst Estimates

General Mills: Brands overview

GIS is my favorite packaged food stock since I have a favorable opinion of its diversification efforts, including the most recent move into pet food and treats as well as its organic food acquisitions.  

Profit Snapshots: +$15.84 (12/15/21 sale only) and +$30.83 on 1/6/22

Average cost this account after last pare = $56.12 (60 shares):

The AC per share was reduced from $56.35 with these sales.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.51 per share, last raised from $.49 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. 

GIS Dividend History-Nasdaq

Yield at $56.12 = 3.64%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend = Today, 1/7/22

Last Buy Discussions: Item 3.L. Added to GIS in Fidelity Account-Bought 1 at 58; 1 at $57.67 (8/20/21 Post); Item # 1.G. Added to GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $55.9; 5 GIS at $55.5; 5 at $55.2; 5 at $54.9; 5 at $54.5; 5 at $54 (2/6/21 Post); Item # 1.A. and 1.B. Started GIS in Schwab Taxable account and Added to GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account (1/9/21 Post)

The lowest price paid over the past 3 years was $36.75. Item # 5 A. Bought 2 GIS at $40.25, 2 at $39.45, 10 at $38.3 and 5 at $36.75-Used Commission Free Trades (12/29/18 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Fiscal 2nd quarter ending 11/28/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Diluted GAAP E.P.S. = $.97

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.99 

Consensus at $1.046 per Fidelity. 

Organic Revenues up 5%

E.P.S. was hit by supply chain disruptions and input cost inflation. 

Pet segment: "Second-quarter net sales for the Pet segment increased 29 percent to $593 million, driven by strong volume growth and favorable net price realization and mix, including a 15-point net sales benefit from the pet treats acquisition, which closed on July 6. Organic net sales were up 14 percent despite a difficult comparison to the prior-year period that benefited from an increase in retail inventory. On a 2-year compound growth basis, second-quarter organic net sales were up 16 percent. Segment operating profit increased 10 percent to $132 million, driven primarily by higher volume and favorable net price realization and mix, partially offset by higher input costs and higher SG&A expenses. Profit results in the quarter included a one-time inventory adjustment and other acquisition-related expenses totaling $11 million. On a 2-year compound growth basis, segment operating profit was up 28 percent."

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade  (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99). The largest single gain was $1,285.51 realized on a 52 share lot in 2016. There have not yet been any realized losses.  

Realized Gains Starting in 2007:  +$2,419.36

I currently own GIS shares in 5 accounts. I have a comfort level with this stock, but will harvest profits based on price and risk reduction objectives.  

C. Eliminated CLPR in Schwab Account-Sold 20 at $9.09: 

Quote: Clipper Realty, Inc. 

This REIT primarily owns apartment buildings in NYC. Clipper Equity REIT in Brooklyn NY

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy Most REITs that I buy also qualify as bond substitutes. 

Management: Internatl

Profit Snapshot:  $35.84

I still own 50 CLPR bought in my Fidelity taxable account and a few shares in Roth IRA accounts. Item # 1.D. Bought 50 CLPR at $7.36 (7/15/21 Post) The dividend yield at $7.36 is 5.16%. 

Dividends: Quarterly at $.095 ($.38 annually)

Clipper Equity REIT Dividend History

Last Ex Dividend: 11/15/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

AFFO per share = $.10

Revenues = $30.631, up 2% from the 2020 third quarter

GAAP Net Income to FFO to AFFO Calculations: 

Glossary of REIT Terms | Nareit 

D. Added to COLB-Bought 2 at $31.32; 3 at $30.68: 

Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc.

2020 Annual Report

COLB SEC Filings

Investment Category:  Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.D. Started COLB-Bought 2 at $34.93; 3 at $34.4; 2 at $33.95 (11/26/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post, see SEC Filed Earnings Press Release. As discussed in that post, COLB is in the process of acquiring Umpqua.Columbia Banking System And Umpqua Holdings Corporation Combining To Create The West Coast's Leading Regional Bank  

I later averaged down with a 3 share purchase: Item # 2.M. Added 3 COLB at $32 (12/3/21 Post) 

AC per share this account:  $32.77  (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share, last raised from $.28 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment. Columbia paid special dividends in 2011, 2012, 2014-2016, 2018-2020. The total was $3.13 per share. Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha The regular dividend has been raised every year starting in 2011 when the first quarter payment was at $.03 per share. COLB cut its quarterly dividend from $.17 to $.01 during the Near Depression period and its immediate aftermath. 

Yield at AC = 3.67%, rounded up (regular dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/21

E. Added to RYLD-Bought 5 at $23.84-Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote: Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)

This fund will own the  Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF and write call options on that position.  

Sponsor's Website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Last Discussed: Item #1.A. Bought 5 RYLD at $23.17; 5 at $22.95-Schwab Taxable (2/6/21 Post) 

Average Cost per share in Fidelity Taxable =  $23.34 (10 shares)

Dividends: Monthly at a Variable rate 

2021 Dividends = $3.01 per share, rounded down, includes a short term capital gain distribution of $.306+ paid today for 2021. I bought the 5 share lot before the ex dividend date for that distribution.

Short Term Capital Gain Distribution 10 shares this account 

Yield at AC assuming 2021 annual payments with the short term capital gain distribution =  12.91% rounded down (actual yield will vary year to year) Without the short term capital gain distribution, the yield would be 11.6%.

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before any ROC adjustment to the cost basis. 

F. Eliminated BDN-Sold 15+ at $13.51 in Schwab Account and 20 at $13.5 in Fidelity Account: 

Quote: Brandywine Realt (BDN)

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

In a 12/21/21 comment, I mentioned that I was reducing my position in Office REIT due to concerns about excess supply as more employers reduce their office size and transition more employees to at-home work.  

Profit Snapshots: +$156.29

Current Position: None

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.A. Restarted BDN in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought  10 at $9.27; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $7.79 (4/11/20 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share, last raised from $.18 effective for the 2019 first quarter payment.  

Last Ex Dividend: 1/4/22

Last Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filing

FFO per share = $.35; 

FFO = $61.1M; 

core portfolio occupancy = 92.7% leased, 90.3% occupied; 

BDN experienced during the 3rd quarter a "positive mark-to-market rents which increased 16% and 12% on an accrual and cash basis, respectively."; 

"Based on current plans and assumptions and subject to the risks and uncertainties more fully described in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, we are adjusting our 2021 earnings per share guidance of $0.25 - $0.31 to $0.20 - $0.24 per diluted share and 2021 FFO guidance of $1.34 - $1.40 to $1.35 - $1.39 per diluted share.";

A major flaw in this REIT's reports is a failure to provide a cash available for distribution (CAD) per share number. FFO does not reflect the cash available for distribution for an office REIT since the number is distorted higher by excluding routine maintenance expenses, a major item. 

Consequently, the FFO P/E will be much lower than a net lease REIT. 

The FFO number also includes non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention which would be excluded when making a CAD calculation. 

As far as I can tell, the straight line rent revenue was included in another calculation and, along with something titled "other", was $8.126M during the third quarter. I refer to those "revenues" as "pretend cash". 

The dividend payout ratio using FFO was only 54.3%, low for a REIT, and a CAD per share payout ratio would likely be higher than the quarterly dividend of $.19. However, given the lack of data presented by the company, I do not know by how much.

Sell Discussions: Item # 1.K. Sold 1+ BDN at $13.75-All Shares Bought with Dividends in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)($3.3); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 BDN at $12.9 in Schwab Taxable Account (3/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.72); Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4); Item # 7 Sold 158+ BDN at $15.28 (5/24/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.31); Item # 2 Sold 100 BDN at $12.38-ROTH IRA (profit snapshot = $100.5)

BDN Realized Gains to Date: $440.52

Goal: 2+% annual return on the shares plus the dividend. 

G. Eliminated OPI-Sold 10 at $24.47: 

Quote: Office Properties Income Trust (OPI)

"As of September 30, 2021, our wholly owned properties were comprised of 178 properties and we had noncontrolling ownership interests of 51% and 50% in two unconsolidated joint ventures that own three properties containing a combined approximately 444,000 rentable square feet. As of September 30, 2021, our properties are located in 33 states and the District of Columbia and contain approximately 23,274,000 rentable square feet. As of September 30, 2021, our properties were leased to 331 different tenants with a weighted average remaining lease term (based on annualized rental income) of approximately 6.0 years. The U.S. government is our largest tenant, representing approximately 19.7% of our annualized rental income as of September 30, 2021. The term annualized rental income as used herein is defined as the annualized contractual base rents from our tenants pursuant to our lease agreements as of September 30, 2021, plus straight line rent adjustments and estimated recurring expense reimbursements to be paid to us, and excluding lease value amortization." 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 at page 18 

OPI SEC FILINGS 

2020 Annual Report 

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy; Bond Substitute

OPI Profile | Reuters

Profit Snapshot: +$54.13

Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Restarted OPI-Bought 5 at $20.25; 2 at $18.95; 3 at $17.9  (11/13/20 Post) 

Management: External. I have an unfavorable opinion of the external management company that has been expressed in my posts for almost 10 years now. . 

Office Property Trust was formerly known as Government Properties Trust (GOV) that later acquired Select Income REIT (SIR). Government Properties Income Trust Announces the Completion of its Merger with Select Income REIT (12/31/18). I have bought and sold both GOV and SIR in the past. 

Prior OPI, SIR, and GOV Common Stock Round Trips: +$989.44

Dividend: Quarterly at $.55 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/21

Current common share position: None 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Supplemental and SEC Filed Press Release 

Note the substantial difference between FFO per share and CAD per share: 

Per share: 

CAD = $.64

"Normalized FFO" = $1.24

Several Office Reits (e.g. BDN) do not report their CAD numbers but do emphasize their dividend coverage using the  FFO number which does not exclude routine maintenance expenses and includes pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. FFO for Office REITs is IMO distorts dividend coverage protection. 

Currently Owned OPI SU Bonds: $6,000 PAR VALUE

Item # 2.A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4% SU Maturing on 7/15/22 at a Total Cost of 98.609 (6/20/20 Post); FINRA Page  

Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of  94.149 (5/23/20 Post) Item # 1.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.491 (6/14/17 Post); Bond Detail

Prior OPI Owned Bonds-Matured or Sold: Item # 2.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at 102.452 (9/4/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.88); Item # 3.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Bonds (9/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $67.06); FINRA Page 

Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.15% SU Maturing on 2/1/22 at a Total Cost of  98.027 (5/30/20 Post); FINRA Page This bond was redeemed early with a make whole payment: 

+$51.95

SU Bonds Realized Gain= $202.89 ($6,000 par value)

Exchange Traded OPI SU $25 par value Baby Bond: Item # 3.B. Bought 10 OPINI at $18.45; 2 at $15.6 3 at $14.38 (3/21/2020 Post); Office Properties Income Trust 5.875% Senior Notes due 2046 Overview OPI redeemed this baby bond at its par value last year. Item # 2.O. Issuer Redemption of OPINI (6/19/21 Post)  (profit snapshot = $116.20). 

Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds In this context, "exchange" simply means that the bond trades on the stock exchange rather than in the bond market. Trades are flat, meaning that the purchaser does not pay accrued interest to the seller. The owner on the ex interest date receives the entire payment. 

H. Eliminated PDM-Sold 10 at $17.95 in Fidelity account; 10 at $18.02 in Vanguard account:

 

Quote:  Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A  (PDM)
SEC Filings

Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc- Investor Relations

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshots: $128.95

I discussed this REIT in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.A. Eliminated PDM in Schwab Account (12/31/21 Post) 

Other Sell Discussion: Item # 1.G. Sold 1 PDM at $18.6  (5/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $2.27) 

PDM Realized Gains to Date: $367.1

Current Position: None

I. Eliminated AMKBY-Sold 25 at $16.98: 

Quotes: 

USDs: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR

Danish Krone: MAERSK.B (Denmark)

ADR Ratio = 1 ADR = .005 ordinary 

Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

Profit Snapshot: $80.14

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B Bought 5 AMKBY at $13.54; 5 at $12.88  (11/11/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add here.  

J. Added to AMCR Schwab Account-Bought 10 at $11.64: 

Quote: Amcor PLC

"Amcor is a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, home and personal-care, and other products. Amcor works with leading companies around the world to protect their products and the people who rely on them, differentiate brands, and improve supply chains through a range of flexible and rigid packaging, specialty cartons, closures and services. The Company is focused on making packaging that is increasingly light-weighted, recyclable and reusable, and made using an increasing amount of recycled content. Around 46,000 Amcor people generate $13 billion in annual sales from operations that span about 225 locations in 40-plus countries."

Amcor PLC Profile | Reuters

AMCR SEC Filings

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Buy Discussions: Item # 4.A. Added to AMCR-Bought 10 at $11.45; 10 at $11.27  (7/30/21 Post); Item # 2 Bought 100 AMCR at $11.97 (6/12/21 Post)

On 12/15/21, BofA securities upgraded AMCR to buy from underperform with a $13.2 PT. I do not have access to that report but the upgrade may have been in response to AMCR announcing that day it was raising prices by up to 15%. Amcor announces global price increases ("This measure is part of the company's ongoing response to supply constraints and higher input costs across multiple categories including raw materials, transport and energy since the beginning of calendar year 2021.")

Average cost per share this account: $11.85  (130 shares)

I own AMCR in 5 accounts and plan to consolidate the position in my Schwab account which has the largest position. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, last raised from $.1175 effective for the 2021 third quarter.  

Yield at AC this account =  4.05%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/23/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Amcor (AMCR) SEC Filed Press Release 

AMCR is an Australian company that reports in USDs; 

this report is for its first fiscal quarter with the F/Y year ending in June 2022; 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.131 based on net income of $202M; 

non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.177 with the consensus at $.176; 

"adjusted EBIT of $381 million, up 7% on a comparable constant currency basis"; 

revenues = $3.42B up 10% on a reported basis, reflecting a 9% price increase that passes through increased input costs to Amcor's customers; 

fiscal 2022 guidance unchanged: "Adjusted EPS growth of approximately 7% to 11% on a comparable constant currency basis, or approximately 79.0 to 81.0 cents per share on a reported basis assuming current exchange rates prevail through fiscal 2022" and "adjusted Free Cash Flow of approximately $1.1 to $1.2 billion.", of which about $400M will be devoted to share repurchases

Analyst Report (available to Schwab customers)

S & P (11/3/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $13. The report has not been updated after AMCR announced price increases for its products. This is the only analyst report that I can review. 

K. Added to TLS- Bought 1 at $15.65; 1 at $14.7; 1 at $13.95: 

Quote:  Telos Corp.

Telos Corp Profile | Reuters

TLS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 1/6/22, the non-GAAP 2022 E.P.S. consensus was at $.28 and at $.43 for 2023) 

TLS SEC Filings

TLS Historical Prices

Investment Category:  Lottery Ticket Basket, a form of entertainment for the Old Geezer

Maximum Exposure for Lottos: $1,000 per stock plus any previous realized gains. 

If all of the ones currently owned went to zero, it would not be relevant to me. 

Buy Discussions: Item # 2.B. Added to TLS-Bought 2 at $26.21; 2 at $24.05 (9/10/21 Post)(discussed 2nd Quarter earnings report in this post); Item # 4.H. Started TLS-Bought 2 at $27.95; 1 at $26.75 (7/30/21 Post)

This Lotto is having trouble moving into the green. The decline since my last purchase was triggered by a poor third quarter earnings report released after my initial purchases. The TLS position has a less than .02% weighting in my Fidelity taxable account which is 1 of 5 taxable accounts. 

Average cost per share = $22.75 (10 shares shares)

Dividend: None and none expected  

Chart: TLS started trading in November 2020. Ugly does not do this chart justice. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): 

Telos Corporation Announces Third Quarter Results (11/15/21). 

The stock crashed and burned in response. TLS closed at $24.38 on Friday 11/12 and at $17.59 on Monday 11/15 in response to this report. 

The stock has continued to drift lower since that initial decline. IMO, investors that matter feel like they were burned by management's guidance before the release, which was slashed in the release, and consequently abandoned ship irrespective of  price.   

2021 Guidance: Slashed

The explanation was that the guidance was based on closing several deals which did not happen. When management is this far off is recently provided guidance, I quit paying attention to whatever future guidance is provided.  

The Wedbush firm responded by lowering its PT to $18 from $47 and cutting its rating to neutral from outperform. 

I know that I was burned by management's guidance, but my unrealized loss is meaningless given the purchasing and dollar exposure restraints associated with the Lottery Ticket classification. 

3rd Q Highlights: 

Telos Corporation (TLS) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool The transcript discusses the purported reasons for the 2021 guidance slash, see discussion by the CFO Mark Bendza. That guy started as CFO in July 2021 and was formerly employed in Honeywell's investor relations department. Mark Bendza, Telos Corp: Profile and Biography - Bloomberg Markets 

I decided to continue my small ball purchases based on the current price, decent revenue growth and analyst estimates of non-GAAP E.P.S. growth. 

L. Added $100 FBIOX at $19.35: 

Biotech stocks have been smashed in recent trading which triggered some nibbles.  

Sponsor's website: FBIOX - Fidelity ® Select Biotechnology Portfolio 

Expense Ratio = .7%

Rated at 2 stars by Morningstar

Fidelity® Select Biotechnology (FBIOX) Portfolio | Morningstar

3. Tennessee Municipal Bond Interest 1/1/22: 

As I recall now, I started an allocation to Tennessee Municipal bonds in 2017 since the current yields were higher than comparable maturity U.S. treasuries and many could be purchased at discounts to par value adding to their after tax total return potential. I have a no interest in buying at their current prices and yields. All of the purchases were discussed in posts here soon after they were made. 

Total Tax Free Interest (3 of my taxable accounts) =  $915.01

Unrealized Gains for these bonds as of 1/3/22  = $4,320.16 

Given the abnormally low intermediate and longer term interest rates, the prices for these bonds are more impacted by when the issuer can call at par value than the recent minor increase in interest rates. My current expectation is that all of my municipal bonds will be called when the issuer has the right to do so. The optional call right for my municipal bonds starts 10 years after the original issue date but all of my purchases were made in the secondary market after issuance. 

The likelihood that a issuer will exercise its optional call right may change when and if interest rates spike higher, reaching a point where the issuer would be better off letting me keep my bonds than to redeem and refinance. And, if rates rise enough so that the issuer will let the owners keep the bonds, the prices will be coming down and the yields up for new purchases.  

These bonds are not liquid. I have not sold any. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.