Economy:
Private payrolls up 374,000 in August, far short of 600K estimate: ADP
The BLS reported that payroll employment increased by 235K last month and the unemployment rate declined by .2% to 5.2%. The consensus was for a 750,000 increase. The resurging pandemic may partly be the cause of the big estimate misses in both the BLS and ADP numbers.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 24,000, from +938,000 to +962,000, and the change for July was revised up by 110,000, from +943,000 to +1,053,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 134,000 higher than previously reported." Employment Situation Summary
The U-6 rate was reported at 8.8%, down from 9.2% in July. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Social Security trusts to run out of money sooner than expected due to Covid There will be a fiscal Day of Reckoning for the U.S., probably occurring before SS starts to run out of money. Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt-St. Louis Fed As shown in the previous chart, the total debt was less than $1T in the 1981 third quarter.
Euro zone inflation August 2022 at 3% Y-O-Y Germany experienced a 3.4% increase. The ECB benchmark rate is -.50. Key ECB interest rates The German 10 year government bond is below zero. Germany 10 Year Government Bond Overview
Niall Ferguson: Inflation could repeat the 1960s, when the Fed lost control
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Amazon Partners with Affirm to Deliver Pay-Over-Time Option at Checkout
Regeneron Is More Than a Covid Play. Its Drug Dupixent Will Be a Giant Seller. | Barron's The analyst quoted is from Benchmark who opined that Dupixent may be the world's top selling drug by 2030. REGN discovered this drug but Sanofi books the sales and shares with REGN the profits. REGN SEC Filed Second Quarter Earnings Report at page 17 REGN and "Sanofi equally share profits and losses from sales within the United States. We and Sanofi share profits outside the United States on a sliding scale based on sales starting at 65% (Sanofi)/35% (us) and ending at 55% (Sanofi)/45% (us), and share losses outside the United States at 55% (Sanofi)/45% (us). In addition to profit and loss sharing, we are entitled to receive sales milestone payments from Sanofi. In the third quarter of 2020, the Company earned, and recognized as revenue, the first $50.0 million sales-based milestone from Sanofi, upon aggregate annual sales of antibodies outside the United States (including Praluent) exceeding $1.0 billion on a rolling twelve-month basis. We are entitled to receive up to an aggregate of $200.0 million in additional milestone payments from Sanofi, including the second sales milestone in the amount of $50.0 million, when such sales outside the United States exceed $1.5 billion on a rolling twelve-month basis." Page 19 REGN 2020 Annual Report I also own SNY.
Ford's August U.S. sales fall 33% as chip shortage hits auto industry I do not own Ford shares.
Verizon increases dividend for 15th consecutive year The new quarterly dividend is $.64 per share, up 1.25 cents per share. I own a few VZ shares as a bond substitute.
I am continuing to reduce my stock allocation. I am likely to eliminate most of my stock ETF positions as part of that ongoing reduction. Those positions are generally less than 10 shares.
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Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks:
Consolidated Edison (ED) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (adjusted net income of $182M or $.53 per share with the consensus at $.622 per Fidelity)
Discovery (DISCA) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. of $1.01 which included a 9 cent after tax gain from selling Great American Country; consensus at $.86; revenues at $3.062B, up 21% Y-O-Y; free cash flow $757M; as of 8/3/21, DISCA had 18M subscribers to its streaming service; Discovery is no longer trading IMO on its results but on investor perceptions about its acquisition of Warner Media from AT & T which will load the company up with debt. I eliminated DISCA, but recently bought a few shares back thereafter which I have not discussed here. Item # 1.C. Eliminated DISCA Sold 10 at $42.68 (2/27/21 Post).
Dominion Energy (D) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.76 with consensus at $.76; guided 3rd quarter to non-GAAP E.P.S. between $95-$1.10; affirmed "its full-year 2021 operating earnings guidance range of $3.70 to $4.00 per share."; revenues = $3.038B).
Dropbox (DBX) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.40 with the consensus at $.329 per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. at $.22; "net cash provided by operating activities was $219.9 million, as compared to $145.9 million in the same period last year. Free cash flow was $216.0 million, as compared to $119.8 million in the same period last year."; "cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments ended at $1.944 billion."; "revenue was $530.6 million, an increase of 13.5% from the same period last year. On a constant currency basis, year-over-year growth would have been 11.4%")
Enbridge (ENB) SEC Filed Press Release (adjusted earnings of C$1.4 billion or C$0.67 per common share, with the consensus at C$.564; GAAP E.P.S. at C$.69; distributable Cash Flow (DCF) of C$2.5 billion or C$1.24 per common share, compared with C$2.4 billion or C$1.21 per common share in 2020; reaffirmed full year DCF of C$4.7 to C$5 per share)
Entergy (ETR) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (adjusted E.P.S. of $1.34 with consensus at $1.405 per Fidelity; affirmed 2021 adjusted E.P.S. guidance of $5.8 to $6.10)
Evergy (EVRG) SEC Filed Press Release (adjusted net income of $195M or $.85 per share with the consensus at $.729 per Fidelity; "reaffirmed its 2021 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.20 to $3.40 and long-term adjusted EPS annual growth target of 6% to 8% from 2019 through 2024."; declared quarterly dividend of $.535 per share)
Great Ajax (AJX) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (diluted E.P.S. of $.42 with the consensus at $.313 per Fidelity; book value per share at $15.86)
Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (FFO at $.44, up 10% compared to the 2020 second quarter; normalized CAD at $81M, up 4.5%, or $.364+ per share; quarterly dividend at $.36 per share; as of 6/30/21 "portfolio had a leased rate of 89.3% by gross leasable area (“GLA”) and an occupancy rate of 87.9% by GLA"; "during the three months ended June 30, 2021, HTA closed on the previously announced disposition of a 13 property portfolio with locations in Tennessee and Virginia, with an aggregate gross sales price of $67.5 million. This transaction qualified as a 1031 exchange with net proceeds held in a restricted cash account at quarter end. This portfolio generated annual returns of 10% over its 13-year period and generated a gain of approximately $32.8 million.")
LyondellBasell (LYB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net income of $2.1B; E.P.S. at $6.13 with the consensus at $5.573 per Fidelity; revenues = $11.561B, up from $5.546B in the 2020 second quarter which is illustrates LYB's cyclical business; generated $1.9B in cash during quarter allowing the company to raise its quarterly dividend and to reduce debt from $13.6B to $12.7B)
OFS Capital (OFS) SEC Filed Press Release (net investment income of $.24 per share with consensus at $.23 per Fidelity; net asset value per share = $13.42, up from $11.96 as of 3/31/21; no new loans on nonaccrual; weighted average yield on debt investments = 8.91%; Board declared a $.24 per share quarterly dividend)
PennantPark Investment (PNNT) SEC Filed Press Release (core net investment income per share of $.14; GAAP net asset value per share = $9.59, up from $8.78 as of 12/31/20, 10-Q at p. 4; yield on debt investments = 9.2%)
Rent-A-Center (RCII) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.63 with the consensus at $1.353 per Fidelity; revenues of $1.2B: For the six months ended June 30, 2021, the Company generated $250.5 million of cash from operations, and ended the second quarter of 2021 with $145.1 million of cash and cash equivalents, $1.32 billion of debt outstanding, $608 million of liquidity including $463 million of undrawn revolving credit, and a pro-forma net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.7 times.")
Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (VABK) Announces Second Quarter Financial Results And Availability Of Dividend Reinvestment Plan (GAAP E.P.S. of $.03, hit by $5.9M in acquisition related costs; non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.89; no analyst estimates; NIM = 3.05%; loan to deposit ratio = 71.6%; net recoveries; NPA Ratio = .18%; NPL Ratio = zero; Total capital ratio = 13.47%; tangible book value per share = $26.6; other ratios distorted by merger expense)
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Madison Cawthron (R-NC) Defends 'Bloodshed' Over 'Rigged' Election Remarks After Fierce Backlash; Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) promotes false election claims, warns of 'bloodshed' if fraud occurs in future
Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) tried to board plane with gun; could face fine
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Threatens Firms Not to Help January 6 Probe McCarthy, the House minority leader, made it clear that private companies will pay a price when Republicans regain control for supplying information in response to House subpoenas.
Opinion | Joe Biden’s Critics Lost Afghanistan - The New York Times
Opinion | Republicans are guilty of mind-boggling hypocrisy in their attacks on Biden’s Afghanistan exit - The Washington Post Being a brazen hypocrite is normal for members of that political tribe. It may be required for admission along with publicly stating belief in an assortment of fact free conspiracy theories.
Most Americans favor Afghanistan withdrawal, criticize Biden for his handling | Pew Research Center (42% wanted to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan)
Two church events in Illinois linked to 180 Covid-19 cases, 5 hospitalizations
Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Won't Do Anything to Ease Vaccine Hesitancy-YouTube
Republican Steve Lynch Threatens School Board Members-YouTube; A Pennsylvania GOP Candidate Steve Lynch Called for '20 Strong Men' to Remove School Boards That Impose Mask Mandates
Joe Rogan says he has Covid, took widely discredited horse drug ivermectin It is disheartening that this fool has 13 million followers on Instagram and a large audience for his podcast streamed on Spotify. Joe Rogan, A Podcasting Giant Who Has Been Dismissive of Vaccination, Has Covid - The New York Times; Joe Rogan - Wikipedia
See the question that made ex-Trump attorney Sidney Powell leave interview - YouTube Facts are of course irrelevant in TrumpWorld where reality creations rule and are treated as facts.
Trump and Boebert's Oil Spin - FactCheck.org ("The U.S. imported an average of 536,400 barrels of crude oil and petroleum products a day from Persian Gulf countries in the first five months of 2021, according to EIA data. That’s a 30% decline from the monthly average of 767,166 barrels a day that the U.S. imported from those countries in 2020, and a 44% decline in average monthly imports compared with 2019.") Donald claimed that he weaned the U.S. off Mideast oil and that Biden was begging them for more. The truth is that oil imports from the Mideast have continued a long decline under the Biden administration.
Opinion | Kevin McCarthy emerges as a demagogue in his own right - The Washington Post This opinion column is written by Michael Gerson, a republican and a former George Bush speechwriter. He argues that McCarthy has embraced Trumpism as the predominant governing ideology of the republican party which affirms "the new ideological ecosystem of the American right — its lawless governing theory, its cultlike conspiracy theories and its threat of political violence." It is also important that Trump's party has adopted lying and demagoguery as the primary ways to interact with voters.
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1. Small Ball-Primarily About Risk Management:
A. Bought 10 ONB at $15.97:
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Closing Price 9/2/21: ONB $16.60 +$0.15 +0.91%
ONB is the holding company for One National Bank that operates in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Elimination: Item # 1.H. Eliminated ONB-Sold 15 at $17.87 (2/13/21 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added 5 ONB at $12.23 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 4.B. Restarted ONB-Bought 10 at $12.71 (6/27/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
Old National Bancorp Dividends
Last raised from $.13 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Yield at $15.97 = 3.51%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 8/31/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.38
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.41
Non-GAAP excludes "pre-tax charges of $6.5 million for the recently announced merger with First Midwest Bancorp and $0.4 million for the ONB Way."
NIM = 2.91%
NPL Ratio: 1.03%
Coverage Ratio = 77%
Net Recoveries of $336K
Total Capital Ratio = 12.73%
Tangible Book Value per share = $11.55
Adjusted ROTE = 14.56%
Adjusted Efficiency = 57.74%
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 100 ONB at $13 (8/22/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 ONB at $14.12 (7/16/13 Post); Item # 6 Sold 50 ONB at $13.05-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 6/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(largest single gain at $312.97 bought at $12.25); Item # 4.A. Sold 10 ONB at $19.66 (7/29/18)
ONB Realized Gains to Date: $865.78
B. Eliminated ISBC in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 12 at $14.3:
Quote: Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
I still own 30 shares in my Fidelity taxable account. The average cost per share is $7.48:
Snapshot 9/2/21 close |
ISBC is in the process of being acquired by Citizens Financial Group, Inc., which I also own. "Under the terms of the agreement and plan of merger, Investors shareholders will receive 0.297 of a share of CFG common stock and
I sold the 12 shares on the ex dividend day.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$79.59
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Bought 5 ISBC at $7.21; 5 at $7.09; 5 at $6.9(10/24/20 Post); Item # 1.D. Started ISBC-Bought 10 at $7.97; 4 at $7.7 (9/5/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.E. Sold All ISBC Shares Bought with Dividends at $14.64 (6/19/21 Post)
C. Bought 10 LUMN at $11.72:
This is a new name for me.
Quote: Lumen Technologies Inc
Closing Price 9/2/21: LUMN $12.35 +$0.22 +1.81%
LUMN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 (long term debt at $28.574B with cash at $935M as of 6/30/21)
Website: Enterprise Technology for the Digital Revolution
Major Recent Developments-Asset Sales:
Lumen to sell local incumbent carrier operations in 20 states to Apollo Funds for $7.5 billion (8/3/21)("Lumen will retain its ILEC assets in 16 states, as well as its national fiber routes and CLEC (competitive local exchange carrier) networks"; sale includes approximately $1.4B in debt assumption)
Lumen to Sell Latin American Business to Stonepeak for $2.7B (7/26/21)
Investment Category: Bond Substitute/Lottery Ticket Basket
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 (likely to be cut)
Lumen Technologies declares quarterly cash dividend
This Company Might Cut Its Dividend, but Its Stock Could Soar | The Motley Fool Author argues that a dividend cut may help the stock performance as the company invests in higher growth businesses.
Current Yield at $11.72 TC per share = 8.53% (assumes no dividend cut)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/27/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21):
2021 outlook:
D. Bought 2 AQUA at $36.45:
Quote: Evoqua Water Technologies Corp.
Closing Price 9/2/21: AQUA $39.19 +$0.43 +1.11%
AQUA "provides a wide range of product brands and advanced water and wastewater treatment systems and technologies, as well as mobile and emergency water supply solutions and service contract options through its branch network. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, EWT is a multinational corporation with operations in the United States (“U.S.”), Canada, the United Kingdom (“UK”), the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, the People’s Republic of China, Singapore, the Republic of Korea and India."
Website: Evoqua Water Technologies
Products and Services: Proven solutions for water & wastewater treatment
AQUA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
This is a new name for me.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Dividends: None and none expected
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.11
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.17
Consensus at $.185 per Fidelity
Revenues up 6.3% to $369.7M
Adjusted EBITDA = $66.2M, up 3.8%
Evoqua Water Technologies Corp (AQUA) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Analyst Responses to Earnings Report (8/4-5/21): I do not have access to these reports.
Goldman Sachs: Maintains Buy, increases PT to $39 from $36
Raymond James: Maintains Outperform adjusts PT to $37 from $35
RBC: Maintains Outperform, adjusts PT to $41 from $.38
Baird: Maintains Outperform, adjusts PT to $41 from $32
Citigroup: Maintains Neutral, adjusts PT to $37 from $31
Stock Prices: The earnings report was released prior to the market's open on 8/3/21.
Broker Report (available to Schwab customers):
Credit Suisse (8/3/21) : Outperform with a $38 PT
E. Added to TAK -Bought 5 at $16.36:
F. Added 1 AMGN at $229.69:
Quote: Amgen Inc.
Website: Investors | Amgen Inc.
5 Year Financials:
Page 58 Annual Report |
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I. (1/9/21 Post) I discussed the 2020 3rd quarter earnings report in that post.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.76 per share ($7.04 annually)
Dividend Information | Amgen Inc.
Yield at $229.69 = 3.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/16/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (6/30/21): Amgen (AMGN) Reports Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results
Non-GAAP net income of $2.522B or $4.38 per share with the consensus at $4.091 per Fidelity;
Total revenue at $6.526B, up 5% Y-O-Y;
"cumulative decrease in diagnoses over the course of the pandemic has suppressed the volume of new patients starting treatment, which we expect to continue to impact our business during the second half of the year.";
generated $1.7B in free cash flow; repurchased 6.5M shares of common stock during the quarter at a cost of $1.6B
Product Sales:
Tax Dispute with the IRS:
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (8/4/21 Post): 2 stars with a FV of $200, lowered from $215 based "largely" on the analyst's opinion that the U.S. will raise the tax rate starting in 2022. Notes that free cash flow runs close to 40% of sales. The company is facing competition in its biologic Neulasta.
Argus (8/13/21): Buy with at PT of $265, reduced from $275
S & P (8/4/21): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $276. The analyst has a favorable view of the pipeline and believes the recently FDA approved Lumakras (sotoasib) in advanced non-small-cell lung carcinoma will have better sales than the consensus forecast. FDA Approves LUMAKRAS™ (Sotorasib), The First And Only Targeted Treatment For Patients With KRAS G12C-Mutated Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Credit Suisse (4/27/21): Outperform with a $258 PT.
Other Recent News (7/7/21): Tezepelumab Granted Priority Review By U.S. FDA This is an asthma drug developed in cooperation with AstraZeneca; Amgen Announces Approval Of Aimovig® (Erenumab) In Japan For The Suppression Of Onset Of Migraine Attacks In Adults (6/23/21)(2nd quarter revenues for Aimovig were reported at $82M, down 16% Y-O-Y, with all sales made in the U.S.)
G. Sold 1 IBB at $169.44:
In my mind's eye, I substituted the higher yielding AMGN for this ETF.
Quote: IBB | iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Sponsor's Website: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | IBB
Expense Ratio = .46%
Profit Snapshot: +$20.69
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 1 IBB at $148.75 (5/8/21 Post)
Rated 3 stars by Morningstar
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate and viewed as immaterial by me
Yield using last 4 dividend payments and a $169.44 price = .167%
H. Bought 2 COHU at $30.85; 1 at $29-Fidelity Account and 1 at $34; 1 at $33.67-Schwab Account :
Quote: Cohu Inc.
Closing Price 9/2/21: COHU $34.97 +$0.39 +1.13%
"Cohu is a leading supplier of semiconductor test and inspection handlers, micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) test modules, test contactors and thermal subsystems, semiconductor automated test equipment . . . used by global semiconductor and electronics manufacturers and test subcontractors."
Recent News: Next Generation Inspection & Metrology Platform Selected by Major Semiconductor Manufacturers (8/30/21)
COHU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations | Cohu, Inc
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
The Stock Jocks responded negatively to COHU's forward revenue guidance:
Closing Price Date of Earnings Press Release: COHU $34.42 -$2.84 -7.62%
COHU reported better than expected earnings for the second quarter, beating the consensus estimate by 9 cents. However, guidance for the third quarter was negatively received by the Stock Jocks.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.89
Consensus at $.80
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.92 (includes profit from selling PCB test business)
Expects third quarter revenues of $220M to $225M, below the consensus of $237.5 prior to the news release. The sale allowed COHU to accelerate a $100M prepayment of its term loan B debt facility. This business accounted for 8% of 2020 revenues. Page 2
Cohu Completes Sale of its Printed Circuit Board Test Business ("
I. Bought 5 HIW at $45.68:
Quote: Highwoods Properties Inc- an Office REIT, a component in the S & P 400 MidCap Index.
Closing Price 9/2/21: HIW $46.46 +$0.13 +0.28%
Company Website: Highwoods
Highwoods Properties Inc Profile | Reuters
Highwoods Properties Inc Key Developments | Reuters
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/ Bond Substitute
Recent Material News: Highwoods Closes Acquisition of Office Assets From Preferred Apartment Communities (7/29/21 Press Release)("office buildings in Charlotte and Raleigh, which encompass 1,630,000 square feet in total and are currently 94% occupied, are projected to generate cash net operating income of $38.3 million and GAAP net operating income of $42.8 million in the first four quarters following closing.")
Dividends: Quarterly at $.50 per share, a 4.2% increase from the prior quarter.
Highwoods Declares Quarterly Dividends
Yield at $45.68 TC = 4.38%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21):
Bond Positions:
I currently own 5 HIW 3.625% SU bonds maturing on 1/15/23 (snapshots as of 8/27/21)
Item # 3.B. Bought 2 HIW 3.625% SU Bond at a TC of 98.633 (6/6/20 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Highwoods Realty 3.625% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/23 at a TC of 99,635 (3/20/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 HIW 3.625% SU at a TC of 99.349 (4/5/18 Post)
So far this year, 2 HIW 3.2% SU bonds have matured:
2. Early Bond Redemptions-Subject to Make Whole Payments:
I am losing my corporate bond portfolio mostly due to early issuer redemptions. My brain had to be rewired to comprehend why an issuer would make a make whole payment associated with an early redemption when the coupon was already historically low and the penalty payment could be avoided altogether by waiting a short period, which was the case for the Ventas bonds discussed below. The VTR bond maturing on 6/15/23, for example, could have been redeemed at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest on or after 3/1/23. Prospectus
A. Ventas 3.25% SU Maturing on 8/15/22:
Profit Associated with Make Whole Payments = $124.68 or 4.16% of the $3,000 principal amount for 3 VTR short term bonds.
Make Whole Payment: $28.54-One Bond
Profit Snapshot: +$45.47 (1 Bond)
B. Ventas 3.125% SU Maturing on 6/15/23:
Make Whole Payment: +$96.14 (2 bonds)
Profit Snapshot: $113 (2 Bonds)
The largest corporate bond interest payment received on 9/1/21 was $172.5 for 10 bonds issued by Virginia Electric maturing on 9/1/22:
3. Tennessee Municipal Bond Interest Payments 9/1/21:
Since most of my corporate bonds have either matured or redeemed early mostly subject to make whole payments, Tennessee municipal bonds are my primary source of interest income. These bonds are generally call protected for 10 years after issuance. The optional right to redeem has to wait for that call protection period to expire. These bonds are sold in 5 bond lots ($1K par value per bond), unlike the corporates where the minimum amount is generally either 1 or 2 bond lots.
All of the bonds referenced below are 5 bond lots. I own Tennessee Municipal bonds in 3 of my taxable accounts.
Fidelity: $390.63
The 3.25% Harpeth Valley Utility bond is rated AA+ by S & P. Only $1.75M in principal amount is outstanding. Emma Page Once bought, it would be difficult to sell. The last trade occurred on 5/1/21 at a 111.207 price to the buyer.
I bought this bond on 3/23/20 at a total cost of $90.07 (which has embedded a $5 commission). I would have bought up to 20 at that price but only 5 bonds were available from this seller. Item # 6.A. (3/28/20 Post) The bond is not callable until 9/1/2025.
Most likely, the seller was forced to sell the bonds due to a margin call, or had panicked given the rapid bear market decline that started in February 2020, with the S & P 500 closing at 2,237.50 on 3/23/20, the lowest close during that period.
Schwab: $175
The 4% Harpeth Valley Utility bond matures in 2040 but will be called on 9/1/22. Item # 1.E.
Vanguard: $225
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I mentioned in this post that I would be selling most of my small stock ETFs as I continue to reduce my stock allocation. These are small positions that are generally 1 to 10 shares.
ReplyDeleteI sold today 10 stock ETFs held in my Schwab account that were mostly bought in the Spring and early summer of 2020 as I increased my stock allocation.
The trigger today for more caution was the WHO report on the new "MU" variant ("B.1.621"). This variant has a "constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape". It is currently just a matter of concern that this variant may be more resistant to vaccines. More studies will be needed to clarify.
With worldwide vaccinations being so slow and vaccine resistance far too prevalent, the end result is that there are hundreds of millions of human petri dishes available for new variants to emerge.
No one should be surprised when a variant emerges that is resistant to the vaccines or antibodies created by prior variant infections. That may end up being the WU variant or another one already circulating ("C.1.2") or yet to emerge.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/new-covid19-variant-moves-twice-as-fast-as-delta-could-evade-vaccines/news-story/354126f83fe443b1dd6a0ec4558faa35
I approach portfolio risk mitigation with my first thought being that I do not have to assume any risks.
The Stock Jocks currently assign a zero percent chance that variants will emerge that will materially disrupt the U.S. economy. There is also a zero risk assigned to inflation becoming embedded and problematic.
This article from 2 blogs back:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/26/feds-kaplan-worried-about-inflation-wants-to-announce-taper-in-september.html
makes it clear that tapering is on a lot of Fed minds. Seems very likely to happen by Oct. And we're already in Sept.
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Those ETFs are small counts of them... not specifically smallcap?
Variants adds to the selling scale.
I've read an article or two in your blogs that stocks aren't overvalued.
I've been meaning to read Fisher's semiannual report... but haven't found it yet among all the other short videos on his website.
He describes this as a pretty normal market - that's on it's usual trajectory. And the covid was just a forced closure, without the pre-crash excess that the market would have to wring out.
He's a Trump supporter, I'm pretty sure I read or more likely heard from him on CNBC. So politics now a days mitigates how to interpret pundit views.
He's right to a point, but then the trajectory get past the channel range.
Land: I generally use stock ETFs just to increase my stock allocation percentage without having to think or do much research.
DeleteI may own the same ETF in multiple accounts.
Last Friday, I sold 10 ETFs in my Schwab account that only netted proceeds of $2,097.28 and a $677.38 profit. I still own stock ETFs in that account. This is all about risk management. I sold the following in that 1 account: FIVG, SCHV, MGK, VTI, AIQ, MILN, VONV, SCHK, SCHD,and SCHC. So this paring activity had nothing to do with market capitalization.
In that account, I still own the following stock CEFs and ETFs: AMOM, BXMX, CALF, CET, EDOC, FDN, FENY, GAM, GNOM, GRX, IFRA, MJ, ONLN (not discussed), PAVE, PEO, QQQJ, QYLD, RMT, RNRG, RVT, RYLD, SDIV, SKYY, TECB, and WOOD.
Well it's a nice list for when it's time to quickly buy in easily. But it does seem like time to trim.
DeleteFor my niece, I'm leaving hers alone with no timing. She has a 30-40 year horizon.
The economic numbers aren't trending well. A couple blogs back, the list at the top were trending poorly.
ReplyDeleteThere's tail winds. But this is looking the opposite, especially with taper coming (unless slow down stops that.)
Was I coherent with this? When I re-read and don't know what I meant, I figure I wasn't coherent.
DeleteThe economic info in your prior blog (one or two before), were trending down.
So that too is part of the picture along with the headwinds. So is the taper talk, and move towards tapering.
Just looked up the presidential pattern. This is usually the bad year, and then it's strong as the president tries to boost the market. Pretty meaningless past pattern, right now, with the stalemate congress.
Columbia Property Trust Inc. (CXP)
ReplyDeletePREMARKET $19.7 $2.63 +15.90%
Before Hours Volume: 75.34K
Last Updated: Sep 7, 2021 7:42 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cxp?mod=over_search
CXP agreed to be acquired for $19.30 in cash:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210907005424/en/
The parties expect the deal to close by year end.
The last CXP ex dividend date was on 8/31/21, so there may not be another one before the acquisition is completed. That is why the price is hugging close to the $19.3 per share cash offer. If it would take a year to consummate, and the Stock Jocks were reasonably certain of no glitches, then the stock price would be somewhere over $19.3.
I see no issue standing in the way of the acquisition.
When discussing this REIT in prior posts, I mentioned that it was an acquisition candidate and was engaged in evaluating strategic alternatives.
8/20/21 Post:
Item # 3.H. Started CXP in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $16
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/08/bzh-cxp-d-dea-fncl-gis-hope-intf-iqlt.html
I own the stock in all but one of my accounts. The largest position is in my Fidelity taxable account (49 shares at an average cost per share of $11.48). I discussed selling in the previous linked post selling the remaining shares purchased with dividends in that account (Item # 3.I)
The premarket quote for Columbia (CXP) contained in the prior comment should have been $19.17 rather than $19.7. The buyout price is at $19.3.
DeleteI do not see any reason to sell my shares at the closing price today of $19.05.
If someone bought at that price, the return would be $.25 per share until the closing or about 1.31% on an annual return basis. That certainly beats the broker money market rates of .01%. CXP did say that it will pay the dividend that went ex last 8/31 but no more.
I sold 3 more small ball stock ETF positions that were up in early trading as part of my slow mo stock allocation reduction.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS)
ReplyDelete$59.09 +$2.30 (+4.05%)
As of 10:17AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GIS?p=GIS&.tsrc=fin-srch
This move is in response to GIS slightly increasing its fiscal 2022 forecasts for organic net sales and adjusted E.P.S.
https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/General-Mills-Provides-Business-Review-and-Updates-Fiscal-2022-Financial-Outlook/default.aspx
The 2022 fiscal year ends on 5/31/22.
The stock has been trading in a narrow range since 3/29/20, moving largely between $58 -$62 with temporary moves above and below that range.
The analysts mostly have a hold recommendation with an average PT a few dollars per share above the current price.
I view the stock has undervalued but that is a definitely a minority opinion. I do mean minority in terms of 49% of the total but more like 10%.
GIS is my largest $ position among packaged food stocks. I own somewhere around 100 shares with the largest single position being in my Fidelity taxable where I have been trading the channel.
++
WMB is slightly higher today in response to a rebound in energy prices (primarily a pacifier or Pavlovian response)and the announcement of a new share buyback. The stock does go ex dividend tomorrow.
Williams Cos.
$24.96 +$0.34 +$1.38%
Last Updated: Sep 8, 2021 at 10:32 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wmb?mod=over_search
Buyback announcement:
"Williams Announces $1.5 Billion Share Repurchase Program"
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210908005195/en/
At the current price or lower, WMB needs to spend the entire amount IMO.
GIS also has the tailwind of being popular during a lockdown. Though this pullback seems FED taper related.
ReplyDeleteIn assessing I realized my horizon is 8 years before I'm living off the portfolio. Unless I grow it enough to stop trying to gain before then. So in theory I can ride out upcoming crashes.
I'm debating whether this pullback is a good time to buy into energy for a trade on the next rally. As I type... the market's too odd to know if the whole market will to be doing that.
As to GIS and other packaged food companies, the primary concern is whether cost inflation can be passed onto customers. In its release today, GIS made the following observations about that problem:
Delete"Successfully navigating the dynamic cost environment, leveraging the company’s Holistic Margin Management productivity program, Strategic Revenue Management pricing actions, and other efficiency efforts to address input cost inflation and other cost headwinds." and
"The company is addressing the increasing cost environment with incremental SRM and cost efficiency actions."
The secondary headwind is that Y-O-Y earnings growth is expected to be flat given the prior surge in demand related to the pandemic and stay-at-home dining.
While many critics focus on that issue, it fails to take into annual average earnings growth starting in Fiscal 2019 which ended before the pandemic started in May 2019. Smoothing revenues and E.P.S. to average annual fiscal year numbers shows decent growth for a packaged food company.
The GIS actual adjusted E.P.S. number for fiscal 2019 was $3.22, up 4% from fiscal 2018.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000156459019023552/gis-ex99_7.htm
The average estimate for fiscal 2022 is currently $3.73. The total increase from fiscal 2019 is $.51 per share or 15.84% which comes to an annual average growth rate over 4 years of 3.96%. That is a decent number for slow growing packaged food companies IMO.
I like the move into pet foods and treats and the prior moves into organic foods.
Good data to look at.
DeleteInflation is an issue, but it's a lot of semi-staple (gotta buy food of some kind). So that's helpful if they're addressing it well. Even if they're producing fancy acronym soup in response.
Affirm Holdings Inc. Cl A (AFRM)
ReplyDeleteAFTER HOURS $111.12 +$19.06 +20.70%
Last Updated: Sep 9, 2021 7:59 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/afrm?mod=over_search
I have been discussing my small ball position only in comments.
"Affirm stock skyrockets after company reports 71% revenue growth and strong guidance"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/affirm-afrm-stock-skyrockets-after-reporting-71percent-revenue-growth-and-strong-guidance.html
SEC Filed Press Release:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000182095321000096/affirm_q421earningsrelease.htm
I have published a new post.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/09/acwv-bmy-duk-eaf-gsk-iivi-mac-mcbc-tls.html