AMGN, AQUA, ATKR, BMY, D, EXEL, FULT, HOLX, INFI, NVO, NVS, ORKLY, TELNY, VTRS

Economy: 

Hospitals Aren’t Ready for Omicron - The Atlantic

AstraZeneca’s Monoclonal Antibody Treatment Could Help Immunocompromised and Defend Against Omicron

Pfizer Covid pill: FDA authorizes first oral antiviral to treat coronavirus infection - CNN; Pfizer Receives U.S. FDA Emergency Use Authorization for Novel COVID-19 Oral Antiviral Treatment This was expected. 

'Enormous spread of omicron' may bring 140M new COVID infections to US in the next two months, model predicts

++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

Dividend Stocks to Buy According to Joel Greenblatt’s Gotham Asset Management - Insider Monkey Of the stocks mentioned in this article, I own 4 out of 5: ABBV, MRK, PPL, and XOM. I have owned the other one, KO, but eliminated my position in 2017. Item # 2.A. Sold 265+ KO at $45.85+ (6/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $5,338.25) That post is more noteworthy for the number of shares that I owned than the profit. If I bought KO now, the price would have to be below $45 and my initial purchase would be somewhere between 1 to 5 shares.  

+++

Dan Abrams Takes on Fox News, Liz Cheney Text Reveal  

Ron DeSantis escalates his authoritarian purge: GOP bounty hunters are the next frontier 

Map by Map, G.O.P. Chips Away at Black Democrats’ Power - The New York Times This is one aspect of the GOP's anti-democracy push. 

Roger Stone says he invoked 5th Amendment before January 6 committee - CBS News

Fox's worst week? Dominion ruling adds to drumbeat of bad news for the network FOX "news" is not a news network and I am unaware of any real journalists who work there.  

Trump invokes antisemitic tropes while discussing his support for Israel - POLITICO

Trump allies help Overstock founder Patrick Byrne run group pushing false election claims

Trump supporters are going door-to-door in several states, asking people whether they voted in the election and whether the vote was cast for Don the Authoritarian or Biden. This is just another form of republican voter intimidation which they deny. One group claimed to have found 5 fraudulent votes, trumpeted by Trump as proof of fraud. Trump loyalists are knocking on voters' doors in the latest quest to find fraud in the 2020 election When the claims saw the light of day, they were proven false. Republicans are now constantly attacking the foundations of American Democracy. 

GOP Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) says he won't cooperate with House probe of Jan. 6 riot

Fauci calls for Fox News host to be fired 'on the spot' for 'kill shot' comments The Fox "news" host, Jesse Watters, told Trumpsters to take a "Kill Shot" on Dr. Fauci to create a viral moment. Fox "news" claims that Mr. Watters was only talking metaphorically.  

How the Kremlin Is Militarizing Russian Society - The New York Times

Criminals have stolen nearly $100 billion in Covid relief funds: Secret Service

++++

1. Added 75 TELNY at $14.52: 

History this Account: 

Note the 25% withholding rate on the last dividend payment

Average cost per share  = $15.01 

Quotes:  

USDs: Telenor ASA ADR

NOKs: Telenor ASA (Norway: Oslo)

ADR Ratio: 1 for 1 

NOK / USD Currency Chart. Norwegian Krone to US Dollar Rates

Telecommunications services are provided in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and several southeast Asia countries One of those countries is Myanmar (formerly known as Burma), now ruled by a military Junta that has caused a major devaluation of this asset. Telenor sale of Myanmar unit stalls as junta seeks local buyer participation-Reuters Telenor decided to exit its ownership position after the authoritarian government demanded that it install surveillance technology and barred Telenor executives from leaving the country. For this reason, and others, I view it as questionable to invest in many developing countries, since the potential pain can easily turn out to be far greater than whatever rewards may be realized before being taken away.  

Company Website: Investors - Telenor Group

About Us - Telenor Group (operations are in 9 countries with 180M subscribers)

I own these shares in my Schwab account. Since TELNY is traded on the OTC, it is currently subject to a $6.95 Schwab commission for trades. I did not want to sell the 25 shares that I owned for loss, so I averaged down by buying 75 shares before the commission change from zero to $6.95. 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Bought 10 TELNY at $16.71 (1/16/21 Post)

Dividends: Paid Semi-Annually in NOKs subject to a 15% Norwegian withholding maximum tax for U.S. citizens provided the investor's broker claims tax treaty rights and many brokers do not. Note in the previous snapshot that Schwab did not claim my treaty rights at the source and consequently Norway withheld 25%, which is the rate for citizens of countries that do not have a tax treaty with Norway. Sometimes Schwab does submit paperwork to reclaim for its customers, after payment and withholding 25%, the 10% excess.

In 2021, Telenor paid NOK 9 per share or roughly equivalent to about US$1 per share at the current NOK/USD exchange rate.  Using those data points, the yield at $15.01 would be about 6.66% which is an ominous set of numbers. The actual 2021 dollar payment was $1.0792 which creates a 7.19% yield at US$15.01. These calculations simply show how the conversion rates, when payments are actually made, can significantly impact the dividend yield.   

Third Quarter Report: Subscriber growth and strong cash flow - Telenor Group

Note that the numbers now exclude Telenor Myanmar which is held for sale. The company took an impairment charge of NOK$6.5B earlier this year or about US$719M at current exchange rates.  

More Detailed Report: Telenor Group: Q3-2021 Report.pdf

Broker Report (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (11/22/21): 4 stars with a US$18.5 per share FV with a narrow moat. 

2. Small Ball: 

A. Bought 10 FULT at $17.04; 5 at $16.21 : 

Quote: Fulton Financial Corp. 

Fulton Financial is a bank holding company headquartered in Lancaster, PA. and operates, through its wholly owned subsidiary Fulton Bank, about 200 banking centers in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and Virginia.  Corporate Profile | Fulton Financial Corporation

FULT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch  

FULT SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

This is a new name for me. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)

FULT paid a special dividend of $.09 per share in December 2021 and $.04 in December 2020. 

Yield at AC per share: 3.34% regular dividend only: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Supplemental Filing for the 3rd Quarter

E.P.S. = $.45, up from $.38 in the 2020 third quarter

Consensus at  per Fidelity 

NIM = 2.82%, up from 2.7% in the 2020 third quarter

Efficiency Ratio: 60.3%

NPL Ratio: .82%

NPA Ratio: .58%

Charge off Ratio: net recovery of .05%

ROA: 1.13%

ROE: 10.64%

ROTE: 14.46%

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio = 14.5%, up from 13.8% in the 2020 third quarter

Tangible Book Value per share  = $12.21

B. Bought 5 EXEL at $17.36; 2 at $15.78: 

Quote: Exelixis Inc. 

"Since our founding in 1994, four products resulting from our discovery efforts have progressed through clinical development, received regulatory approval and established a commercial presence in various geographies around the world. Our flagship molecule, cabozantinib, is an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases including MET, AXL, VEGF receptors and RET and has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and foreign regulatory authorities as two products: CABOMETYX® (cabozantinib) tablets approved for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), both alone and in combination with Bristol Myers Squibb Company’s OPDIVO® (nivolumab), and for previously treated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and, in the U.S. only, for previously treated, radioactive iodine (RAI)-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) and COMETRIQ® (cabozantinib) capsules approved for progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). For these types of cancer, cabozantinib has become or is becoming a standard of care. The other two products resulting from our discovery efforts are: COTELLIC® (cobimetinib), an inhibitor of MEK, approved as part of multiple combination regimens to treat specific forms of advanced melanoma and marketed under a collaboration with Genentech, Inc. (a member of the Roche Group) (Genentech); and MINNEBRO® (esaxerenone), an oral, non-steroidal, selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor, approved for the treatment of hypertension in Japan and licensed to Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited (Daiichi Sankyo)."

Average Cost per share =  $16.91 (7 shares)

EXEL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 12/18, the consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. for 2021 was at $.56; at $.79 in 2022 and $1.18 in 2023). 

EXEL SEC Filings 

2020 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

Website: Exelixis 

Pipeline - Exelixis

Our Medicines - Exelixis

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Dividends: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Net product revenues = $263.117M, up from $166.587M in the 2020 3rd Q.

Net product revenues originate from sales of two drugs with almost all revenues generated by CABOMETYX: 

Collaboration revenues = $65.306M, up from $62.505M in the 2020 3rd Q. 

Total Revenues: $328.423M, up from $231.092 in the 2020 3rd Q. 

GAAP E.P.S.  = $.12

Non-GAAP E.P.S.  = $.20

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash = $598.488M as of 9/30/21 

C. Added to NVS-Bought 1 at $81.84; 1 at $80.35: 

Quote: Novartis AG ADR

Investment Categories: Dividend Growth/Bond Substitute/Assets Priced in Swiss Francs.  

NVS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investors | Novartis

News Archive | Novartis

Novartis AG (ADR) Key Metrics | Reuters

Novartis Pipeline | Novartis- Extensive

20-F (2020 Annual Report, SEC Form for Foreign Companies)

Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Added to NVS-Bought 1 at $83.57; 1 at $82.5 (10/22/21 Post) 

Novartis to sell its Roche stake in a bilateral transaction to Roche | Novartis (11/4/21)(Priced at CHF 356.93 per share or about US$389; the total consideration is US$20.7B; NVS bought this stake at US$5B)

Dividend History: Dividends are paid annually and are subject to Switzerland's 15% withholding tax for U.S. citizens.  The dividend is paid in Swiss Francs and converted into USDs for NVS owners. The dividend yield will consequently vary with the then current CHF/USD exchange rate. 

The 3 CHF dividend was for the 2020 calendar year and was paid in 2021. 

Dividend Information | Novartis

Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21

Average Cost per share = $83.89 (7 shares)

Yield: The last USD payment was $3.1991 per share. Using that data point, the yield would be 3.81%. That assumes no future dividend increases and the CHF/USD exchange rate that existed for the 2021 payment. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Novartis delivers solid Q3 results, with strong growth in Innovative Medicines. Announces strategic review of Sandoz Sandoz is a major generic drug company. 

CC = Constant Currency

NVS reports in USDs. 

Core E.P.S. = $1.71

Consensus at $1.65 per Fidelity

Free Cash Flow: $4.4B

Sell Discussions: 

Item # 3 Sold 108+ NVS at $83.66 (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $968.85); Item # 1 Eliminated NVS-Sold 29 at $86.35 (10/24/18 Post)(profit snapshot $298.77); Item # 3.D Sold 10 NVS at $85.96 and 5 at $86.5-Used Commission Free Trades (10/10/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.98); Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.26); Item # 3 Sold 50 NVS at $41.86 (6/17/2009 Post)(profit snapshot +$230.94) Since those sell discussions, NVS spun out Alcon Inc. (ALC). 

NVS Trading Profits to Date = $1,732.8

Those sales were prior to NVS spinning off its Alcon unit to shareholders, which occurred in April 2019. Novartis plans for Alcon spin-off on April 9, 2019 The tax cost basis for NVS owned at that time would be adjusted down for that spinoff. Alcon Inc.  (ALC) 

D. Eliminated ORKLY in Schwab Account-Sold 10 at $9.53 and Eliminated ORKLY in Vanguard Account-Sold 15 at $9.34 and Added 20 in Fidelity Account at $9.15: 

Sells: 

Buy: 

New Average Cost Fidelity Account: $8.37 (120 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 12/1/21

I just consolidated the position in my Fidelity account. The reason for this consolidation is Schwab's announcement that it will start charging a commission for OTC trades. ORKLY is a sponsored ADR that trades on the OTC. 

As discussed below and in previous posts, I view Orkla as incompetently managed and that is not likely to change. Consequently, I have primarily used this stock as a potential dividend harvest opportunity with limited appreciation potential. I am likely to sell my highest cost shares at over $10.  

Some of the businesses will benefit by a renewed acceleration of the pandemic. 

Quote: 

USD: ORKLY

NOK: ORKLA ASA (ORK.OL)

ADR Ratio 1 for 1

NOK / USD Currency Chart. Norwegian Krone to US Dollar Rates

Investor Relations

Orkla Foods - Orkla.com

Orkla Confectionery & Snacks - Orkla.com

Orkla Care - Orkla.com

Orkla Food Ingredients - Orkla.com

Orkla Consumer & Financial Investments - Orkla.com Those investments include a 42.6% interest in Jotun (a large manufacturer of paints and coatings); Hydro Power, consisting of wholly-owned power plants in Sarpsfoss and power plants leased through Orkla's 85% interest in SØNNÅ HYDRO; Orkla Ventures; Orkla House Care; Lilleborg ("hygiene and cleaning systems to the professional market"); and Pierre Robert Group ("high-quality basic garments for women, men and children") I would hope at some point that the company will sell some of these businesses.  

Orkla's 42.6% interest in Jotun needs to be sold IMO, an opinion expressed here for over five years.  

In 2017, Orkla did sell its 50% interest in SAPA for NOK11.86B in cash. SAPA is a global leader in aluminum extrusions. Norsk Hydro – Acquisition of Sapa completed This transaction generated a special 5 NOK dividend for Orkla's shareholders. 

Profit Snapshots: +$10.47

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.K. Restarted ORKLY in Schwab Account-Bought 10 at $9.01 (8/6/21 Post) As discussed in that post, I am concerned about Orkla's growth by acquisition strategy that has substantially increased the debt level. 

Overall, I have a favorable opinion about Orkla's food and personal care businesses and a meaningfully negative opinion about managements' competence, which is an opinion shared by the Stock Jocks judging from the five year chart (see below).  

Acquisitions completed starting on 4/30/21

Orkla acquires New York Pizza 

Orkla completes acquisition of NutraQ 

Orkla completes acquisition of Icelands leading chocolate company 

Orkla acquires Hans Kaspar in Switzerland

Orkla acquires UK companies Cake Décor and For All Baking

I suspect the owners of those businesses were eager to sell at the prices paid by Orkla.  

Dividends: Annually, paid in NOKs and converted into USDs as the then prevailing NOK/USD exchange rate, so the dividend yield will be impacted, up and down, by the currency conversion rates. Norway is entitled by tax treaty with the U.S. to withhold a maximum of 15% provided the broker claims its customers treaty rights. 

Orkla - Orkla Shares - Dividend and Treasury Shares

The last regular annual dividend was 2.5NOKs paid in April 2021 which is roughly $.28 at current exchange rates. 

"Orkla is maintaining its dividend policy ambition of increasing dividends from the level of NOK 2.75 per share, normally within 50-70 per cent of earnings per share. Furthermore, Orkla aims to maintain a financial and business risk profile consistent with an investment grade credit rating." Orkla - Targeting annual organic growth of at least 2.5 per cent

5 Year Chart: Reflects a strong and negative consensus opinion about management's competence IMO.  

As of 12/17/21

With competent management, which does not currently look like a probable eventuality, Orkla's share price could double in 5 years IMO.  Consequently, I will not hold long term waiting for an $18 per share price tag to sell. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Growth for Orkla’s branded consumer goods and Investor Presentation for Third quarter results 2021  

E.P.S. NOK 1.37 for 3 months and NOK 

Organic revenue growth in the 3rd quarter was reported at +4.1%. 

Earnings were negatively impacted by input cost inflation, particularly at Jotun. 

Rapid increase in debt levels to fund acquisitions: 

Sell Discussions: Item # 1- Sold 100 ORKLY at $10.33 (5/23/21 Post): Item # 1.A. Eliminated ORKLY in Schwab Account-Sold 120 at $9.47 and Item # 1.B. Sold 10 of 110 in Fidelity Account at $9.47 (8/15/20 Post)(profit snapshots = $65.61; also contains snapshots of 2017 round-trips with a total realized gain of $65.45); Item # 4.B. Sold 100 ORKLY at $10.1 (1/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.97); Sold 100 ORKLY-Update On Portfolio Positioning And Management -South Gent | Seeking Alpha August 2015 (profit snapshot =$51.08); Item # 4 Sold  100 ORKLY at $9 (9/6/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $122.48)- Item # 2 Bought 100 ORKLY at $7.61 (1/13/14 Post)

ORKLY Realized Gains to Date: $335.49

E. Added to AMGN-Bought $50 at $201.70: 

Quote: Amgen Inc.

AMGN SEC Filings

Investors | Amgen Inc.

Average cost per share this account: $211.85 (2+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.94 per share ($7.76 annually), last raised from $1.76 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. Amgen Announces 10% Increase In 2022 First Quarter Dividend 

Dividend History: Dividend Information | Amgen Inc.

Yield at AC  = 3.66%

Next Ex Dividend: 2/14/22

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought $50 AMGN at $208.1 and $100 at $205.26-Fidelity Taxable (11/18/21) I discussed the 2021 third quarter earnings report in that recent post and have nothing further to add here.  

F. Added to VTRS-Bought 5 at $12.7; 5 at $12.5; 2 at $12.17-Fidelity Account: 

Quote:  Viatris Inc.

VTRS is a major generic drug company. 

VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

VTRS SEC Filings

VTRS 2020 Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Added to VTRS-Bought 2 at $13.56; 5 at $13.13 (11/26/21 Post) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. 

Average Cost per share this account: $13.82 (52+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share

Yield at $13.82 = 3.18%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/22/21

I am reinvesting the dividend based on my opinion about the current valuation. 

G. Added to BMY  - Bought 1 at $54.76 in Fidelity Account: 

Quote:  Bristol Myers Squibb Co.

BMY SEC Filings

Bristol Myers Squibb: Investor Relations

Bristol Stock Is Too Cheap. Why It Could Be Ready to Rally. | Barron's

Average cost per share this account: $60.38 (19 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.54 per share ($2.16 annually), last raised from $.49 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. Bristol Myers Squibb Announces Dividend Increase and Additional $15 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization (12/13/21).

I have eliminated all fractional shares purchased with dividends. 

Yield at AC = 3.58%, rounded up

Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to BMY in Fidelity Account: Bought 1 at $60.34; 1 at $59.98; 1 at $59.5  (10/29/21 Post) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post. 

The price decline to the $54.76 purchase was due IMO to the FDA extending its deadline for action on BMY's heart drug mavacamten.  Bristol Myers Squibb Announces New PDUFA Date for Mavacamten (11/19/21) The subsequent rally was due, in part, to the dividend increase and the $15B share repurchase authorization. BMY's share price is going to be hypersensitive to new drug developments given the loss of Revlimid's patent protection next year. 

H. Added to AFIN in Fidelity Taxable - Bought 10 at $7.95: 

History this Account: 

Price as of 12/22/21 Close

Quote: American Finance Trust, Inc. Cl A (AFIN)

2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 4 and ends at page 29)

AFIN SEC Filings

Investor Relations | American Finance Trust, Inc.

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

One of the main knocks is that AFIN is externally managed. 

Average Cost per share this account: $8.54

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)

Yield at AC of $8.54 = 10%, rounded up 

Last Ex Dividend: 10/8/21

Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added 30 AFIN at $8.21  (11/5/21 Post) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post. 

AFIN senior unsecured debt is rated at BB+ by S & P and Fitch. American Finance Trust Announces Successful Completion Of $500 Million Senior Unsecured Note Offering With BB+ Credit Rating From S&P And Fitch

The increase in the debt is due to this recently announced acquisition. AMERICAN FINANCE TRUST TO ACQUIRE A $1.3 BILLION PORTFOLIO OF POWER, ANCHORED AND GROCERY CENTERS ("a portfolio of 81 Multi-tenant Power, Anchored and Grocery Centers2 (the "Transaction") from certain subsidiaries of CIM Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. for $1.3 billion, representing a 7.19% cash capitalization rate3. The Company also announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to dispose of a non-core portfolio of three office buildings leased to Sanofi S.A. for $261 million, representing a 6.38% cash capitalization rate and a $10 million increase from its original purchase price. Both transactions are expected to close during the first quarter of 2022 and the Company expects the net financial impact of the transactions will be immediately accretive to AFFO per share.")

Fitch Revises American Finance Trust's Outlook to Negative; Affirms IDR at 'BB+'

I own AFIN in 3 taxable accounts and in 2 ROTH IRA accounts. 

I own 30 shares in my Vanguard Taxable account with the AC at $8.28 per share. 

I own 20 shares in my Schwab Taxable account with the AC $8.26 at per share.  

Maximum Position all accounts: 500 shares 

I. Eliminated NVO in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 2 at $107.13:

Quote: Novo Nordisk A/S ADR

1 ADR = 1 Ordinary

The ordinary shares trade in Danish Krone. Novo Nordisk A/S Series B (Denmark: OMX)

DKK / USD Currency Chart. Danish Krone to US Dollar Rates

SEC Filings 

Profit Snapshot: +$77.36 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Bought 1 NVO at $71.3; 1 at $70.3; 1 at $68.9; 1 at $68.3-Fidelity Account (3/20/21 Post) I will probably sell those 4 shares in 2022 when and if the price exceeds $110. The AC per share is at $69.70. 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.E. Eliminated NVO in Schwab Account-Sold 4 at $91.23 (8/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.48)   

The catalyst that has sent the shares soaring was the FDA's approval of NVO's weight loss drug Wegovy. FDA Approves New Drug Treatment for Chronic Weight Management, First Since 2014 | FDA This drug appears headed for blockbuster status. The issue is whether the revenues and profits likely to be generated by this drug justifies the current share price. I have my doubts. The P/E multiple is currently sky high IMO compared to other major drug company stocks like MRK, PFE, SNY and NVS. 

NVO has been struggling to supply this weight loss drug since it was approved by the FDA. 

The company recently announced a major supply problem that will probably result in only a limited number of new patents being able to take Wegovy during the first half of 2022. Novo Nordisk Shares Tumble on Supply Challenges for Obesity Drug Wegovy - MarketWatch

SEC Filed Press Release 12/17/21 on Supply Problem: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Novo Nordisk (NVO) Earnings Report.pdf

E.P.S. DKK 5.27 with the consensus at DKK 5 and up from DKK 4.42 in the 2020 third quarter;

At the current DKK/USD exchange rate, DKK 5.27 is about US$.80. 

Net profit = DKK 12.199B; 

Net profit margin = 34%; 

Guides 2021 free cash flow to DKK 44-49B and operating profit growth to 12 to 15%; 

Initial demand for NVO's weight loss drug Wegovy exceeds supply (page 8); 

In an aggravating presentation, NVO does not break out Wegovy revenues from its older weight loss drug Saxenda 

J. Eliminated ATKR-Sold 2 at $107.63: 

Quote:  Atkore Inc.

ATKR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/20

ATKR SEC Filings 

Profit Snapshot: +$77.17 

Discussed at Item # 1.L Bought  2 ATKR at $69.04 (7/15/21 Post) 

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Atkore (ATKR) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $4.26, up from $1.11; GAAP net income of $202.561M; 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $4.39 with the consensus at $3.844; 

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

For the fiscal year ending 9/30/21, diluted GAAP E.P.S. at $12.19, up from $3.10. In other words, highly cyclical earnings. 

The Stock Jocks responded favorably to this report: ATKR $111.60 +$8.60 +8.35% 

SEC Filed Investor Presentation for 4th Fiscal Quarter Earnings Report 

K. Added to HOLX in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 1 at $72.7: 

Quote:Hologic Inc.

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I. Added to HOLX in Vanguard Account-Bought 1 at $64.5, 1 at $62.48 (5/23/21 Post) 

Website: Hologic: Breakthrough Diagnostic & Medical Imaging Solutions

HOLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

HOLX SEC Filings

Hologic, Inc. - Investor Relations

HOLX Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ending on 9/25/21 

Recent Non-Earnings and Acquisition News Since Last Discussion: Hologic, Inc. - Hologic’s COVID-19 Tests Detect Omicron Variant (11/29/21); Hologic Announces European Launch of Genius™ Digital Diagnostics System for Cervical Cancer Screening (11/4/21); Hologic to Launch the NovaSure® V5 Global Endometrial Ablation Device at Upcoming American Association of Gynecologic Laparoscopists 50th Global Congress (11/2/21); Hologic’s Multiplex COVID-19/Flu Test Now Commercially Available in North America and Europe (10/27/21); Hologic Launches Novodiag® System for On-Demand Molecular Testing in Europe (10/5/21); Hologic Expands its Omni® Hysteroscopy Offering in Europe (9/30/21): 

Product Revenues (Bonanza from Covid Testing):  

Page 37 Annual Report

Page 38 Annual Report

Acquisitions: 

Long Term Debt as of 9/25/21 = $2.712B

Long Term Debt as of 9/26/20: = $2.7139B

Unlike Orkla discussed in this post, HOLX has been using free cash flow rather than new debt to expand through acquisitions. The cash flow has been generated primarily by its Covid testing business. 

Page 35 Annual Report

Pages 35-35 Annual Report

In 2021, the 3 largest acquisitions were Mobidiag Oy ($729.6M), Biotheranostics, Inc. ($231.3M); Boulder Surgical ($160M) and Diagenode SA ($155.1M).

Those acquisitions are discussed in these press releases:  

Hologic Closes on Acquisition of Bolder Surgical (11/30/21) Bolder provides "advanced energy vessel sealing surgical devices."

Hologic, Inc. - Hologic Completes Acquisition of Mobidiag (described in the press release as "an innovator in near-patient, acute care molecular diagnostic testing")

Hologic Acquires European Molecular Diagnostic Company Diagenode for Approximately $159 Million (3/1/21)(described in the press release as an "European developer and manufacturer of molecular diagnostic assays and epigenetics products")

Hologic Completes Acquisition of Biotheranostics, Enabling Entry into Growing Oncology Market  (2/22/21)"(Biotheranostics develops and markets two highly differentiated molecular diagnostic tests for breast and metastatic cancers – Breast Cancer Index™ (BCI) and CancerTYPE ID® (CTID).")

Average cost per share this account: $70.48   (7 shares)

I hold HOLX in several accounts. The largest position is in my Fidelity taxable account that holds 17+ shares with an average cost per share of $73.18. The highest cost lot in that account was a 2 share lot bought at $83.25 which will likely be sold when and if moves into profit territory. That is just a risk mitigation technique that I am using now in my small ball trading system. The dollar amounts do not matter as long as I reducing my risk, taking a profit and reducing my AC per share. The lowest cost lot was bought at $60.42 in June 2021.   

Dividend: None and none expected. Since income generation is my #2 priority behind capital preservation, my enthusiasm for non-dividend paying stocks will be subdued at best. 

Last Earnings Report (fiscal Q/E  9/25/21): This was for the 4th fiscal quarter. Hologic Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021

Cash Flow = $464M

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.28

GAAP Operating Margin = 33.4%

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.61

Consensus at  $1.01 per share per Fidelity

Non-GAAP Operating Margin = 42.5%

GAAP to Non-GAAP: The largest exclusion is $94M for amortization of acquired intangible assets. I personally would use the non-GAAP number.  

Guidance for Fiscal 2022: This was given prior to news about the omicron variant and the recent significant acceleration in Covid infections, so I would not pay much attention to this forecast which I expect to be updated with higher guidance numbers after HOLX releases its fiscal first quarter report.    

On 12/15/21, Citigroup downgraded this stock to neutral from buy and reduced its PT to $78 from $85. While I do not have access to this report, and can only guess at the rationale, the Citigroup analyst's opinion change makes no sense to me given the acceleration in the pandemic and the new omicron variant.  On 12/14/21, Wells Fargo upgraded its PT to $95 from $90 and kept is outperform rating. 

L. Eliminated AQUA-Sold 2 at $47.1: 

Quote: Evoqua Water Technologies Corp.

Website: Evoqua Water Technologies

AQUA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AQUA SEC Filings

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Profit Snapshot:  +$21.29

I view the stock as overvalued at $47.1 based on a reasonable earnings growth forecast, but I also believed the stock was overvalued at my $36.45 purchase price.  

Last Discussed:  Item # 1.D. Bought 2 AQUA at  $36.45 (9/3/21 Post) 

Dividends: None and None Expected

Last Earnings Report (Fiscal 4th Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.22

GAAP net income declined 13.5% 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.32

Consensus at $.289 per Fidelity 

Revenues up 11% to $425.991M

GAAP to Non-GAAP for the Fiscal Year Ending 9/30/21: 

M. Added 2 D in Fidelity Taxable at $71.03: 

Quote: Dominion Energy Inc

Dominion Energy Inc Profile | Reuters

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added to D in Fidelity Account - Bought 1 at $72.79 (11/11/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. I also discussed in that post Dominion's quarterly dividend slash from $.94 per share effective for the 2020 4th quarter and the reasons for it. 

I have nothing to add to that recent discussion. 

Average Cost per share this account: $73.19 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly, raised 6% to $.6675 per share ($2.67 annually) effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.  As noted above, the dividend was slashed from $.94 in 2020.  When and if Dominion raises the penny rate to more than $.94 per share, then I will call that raise an increase.  

Yield at average cost per share: 3.65%, rounded up

N. Added to Lotto INFI-Bought 5 at $1.95: 

Quote: Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IFNI)

Website: Infinity Pharmaceuticals

Our Pipeline - Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc There are several ongoing clinical trials involving the drug Eganelisib. If those trials fail, the stock is toast. 

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket

INFI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (LOSSES)

INFI SEC Filings

INFI 2020 Annual Report

Last Loss Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Net Loss for the Quarter: $10.7M or $.12 per share

Expected cash balance at 2021 year end = $70M to $80M

This loss report contains the following updates on clinical trials:  

I have previously discussed those results. 

The most recent update is discussed in this 12/10/21 press release: Encouraging Updated Data from Phase 2 MARIO-3 TNBC Trial Presented at 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium Recognizing that I have zero training in medicine, the results look to me as encouraging. There was a positive response to this data. INFI Historical Stock Prices 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Bought 30 INFI at $2.8 (7/23/21 Post) 

Average cost per share this account: $2.39 (65 shares)

Maximum position all accounts: 150 shares until there is some positive news about the pipeline.

Current Total Position: 99 shares with an AC of $2.33 per share.

Other Account Positions: 

22 Shares Schwab with an AC of $2.24  

12 Shares Vanguard with an AC of $2.2 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.