CARA, CUBE, ETSY, FITB, GNL, HR, OHI, PAY, PSEC, RHHBY, SPTN, SWZ, VGK

Economy: 

The Federal Reserve released on Wednesday is current economic forecast: 

The Fed - September 22, 2021: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version 

The FED uses the personal consumption price index (PCE) as its preferred inflation indicator rather than the CPI index. Note the projection that the PCE price index is projected to increase by 4.2% this year and then fall back to 2.2% next year. The PCE price index data can be found in the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last release was for July 2021 which showed annual PCE inflation at +4.2%. Personal Income and Outlays, July 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  

In September 2020, the FED projected that PCE inflation would be 1.7% for 2021 and 1.8% in 2022. The Fed - September 16, 2020: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version  

Current Dot-Plot: 

15 of 18 Fed members expect an increase in the FF rate to .25%-.5% in 2022.  

Markets Defy Fed’s Hawkish Shift. Here’s Why. | Barron's Possibly raising the Federal Funds rate from 0-.25% to .25%-.5% late in 2022 rather than 2024, when the annual CPI increase is currently at 5.3% through August 2021, will have zero impact on restraining inflationary pressures and is simply a meaningless gesture. Using the word "hawkish" to describe that change is laughably absurd.  

A majority of FED members currently predict a FF rate at .8755% or higher in 2023 with 6 at 1.125%.  

A majority of FED members currently predict a FF rate at 1.625% or higher by 2024. A 1.625% FF rate will do nothing IMO to restrain whatever inflationary pressures that may exist in 2024. 

The signal being sent is that FED does not plan to do anything about inflation because it believes inflation is not going to be problematic except in 2021. That opinion is share by the Bond Ghouls in the breakeven inflation rates for TIPS.  

The risk is that doing nothing may allow problematic inflation to become embedded in the economy. Remember that the Volcker had to raise the FF rate to 20% to snuff out problematic inflation that started mildly enough in the late 1960s. CPI was at 1.6% in 1965; 3% in 1966; 2.8% in 1967 and jumped to 4.3% in 1968, less than it will in 2021. Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis This is what happened next: 

Bonds and stocks will fail during that kind of problematic inflation. The average annual total return for the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation, starting on 1/1/1966 and ending July 31, 1982, was -1.813%:

Sourced: S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment

Once problematic had become embedded back then, a 10% FF rate did not prevent problematic inflation from continuing.  

Effective Federal Funds Rate-St. Louis Fed; Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

If the future inflation prediction made by the FED and the markets proves accurate, then doing nothing is the right policy when the only consideration is inflation. 

For the Old Geezer crowd, it would have been inconceivable that the FED would be buying $120B per month in securities and keeping the FF rate at 0-.125% with inflation running at a 5.3% annual rate, real GDP increasing at a rapid annual rate, and unemployment declining rapidly with the latest reading at 5.2%. And, for a topping of absurdity, the FED is called hawkish by saying it may cut back some on its Q/E purchases and may raise the FF rate a 1/4 of a point off zero bound next year. 

Norway becomes the first central bank to hike rates post-Covid Norway's CB raised its benchmark rate from zero to .25%. 

Household net worth rises above $141 trillion, but debt up sharply as well

On debt ceiling, McConnell led Republicans will vote against raising borrowing limit - The Washington Post ("McConnell has declared that Senate Republicans will not vote to increase the Treasury’s authority to continue borrowing, which is the same as voting to allow a default.") Republicans will vote for a U.S. debt default but polls show that voters will blame the Democrats. 

House passes funding, debt ceiling bill All republicans voted against the bill, as will all Senate Republicans. 

China developer Evergrande's debt crunch and U.S. markets: Ed Yardeni Evergrande has about $300B in debt. Yardeni recommends that investors avoid buying the dips in China's stock market. He believes that Evergrande's debt implosion will have a negative impact on basic commodity prices by retarding growth in China's residential development activity. 

Coronavirus death toll in US eclipses 1918 influenza pandemic estimates - ABC News

+++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors - MarketWatch (the analyst views the precipitating events being a slowing economy and margin pressure resulting in negative earnings revisions, with a taper announcement from the FED adding some downward pressure on stock prices)   

Supply Disruptions Seen Costing Auto Makers $210 Billion in Lost Revenue | Barron's

Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (9/8/21)

Shiller PE Ratio

Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends

Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends

P/E10: August 2020 Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

++++

Opinion | A scary court victory for Devin Nunes - The Washington Post Republican judges are becoming increasingly hostile to a free press which is being expressed by their disdain for the unanimous 1964 Supreme Court decision in New York Times Company v. Sullivan (1964); Two Republican Justices Call for Reconsideration of Times v. Sullivan Decision - The New York Times; New York Times Co. v. Sullivan - Wikipedia 

The Sullivan decision was in response to efforts being made, particularly in southern state courts with hostile juries, to put the NYT and other publications out of business. 

When that is accomplished, and that is certainly a possibility, Trump and his party will be freer to manipulate the ignorant with knowingly false statements with less, if any, pushback from responsible journalists. Trump has used libel suits to bully and that would become the dominant theme when and if the Republican Justices overturn Sullivan. The ABA wouldn’t run a piece calling Trump a “libel bully.” Here it is. - Vox; Why Donald Trump Has Never Won a Libel Case | Vanity Fair; Trump's attacks on the First Amendment and the press gain an ally in Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas; Opinion | Judge Laurence Silberman’s attack on Times v. Sullivan is shocking — and totally incorrect - The Washington Post (Silberman is a Republican) 

To protect First Amendment rights, the Court in Sullivan held that the plaintiff had to prove actual malice to win a defamation suit against a "public figure". Two of the Justices concurred in the result only, since they believed that absolute immunity is required to protect First Amendment rights when the alleged defamatory statement is made in reference to a public figure except when the statements are made about their private lives.  

The decision by an appellate panel of three Republican judges in the Nunes case disregards precedent and professes IMO a strong disdain for the Sullivan decision in a bizarre ruling in favor of one of their fellow Republicans. Nunes is a serial filer of defamation suits as was Trump before he became President. Court reinstates Nunes suit over reporter's tweet - POLITICO; 8th Circuit's Bizarre Ruling In Devin Nunes' SLAPP Suit Against Reporter Ryan Lizza | Techdirt; Lawyers Alarmed After Eighth Circuit Rules in Devin Nunes' Favor; Court Opens a Libel Door and Bruises Free Speech - The Washington Post   

GOP Representative Announces Retirement After Threats Of Violence, Trump Celebrates - YouTube

Trump Writes to Georgia's Brad Raffensperger About Election Loss; Trump Letter Asks Raffensperger to Decertify His Georgia Election Loss Don the Authoritarian, the unchallengeable leader of the Trumpster anti-Democracy party, is still contesting the November election results by applying pressure on republican election officials and state legislators. 

The Arizona Election Audit Is Still Unraveling in Chaos - The Atlantic The "audit" is just another Republican assault on American Democracy and institutions necessary for a Democracy to work. The Arizona Republicans were unhappy with the certified and audited election results that had Biden winning the state. Without any facts justifying yet another audit of those results, the Arizona Republicans hired someone with no experience in audits, with the only apparent qualification being that person's propagation of fact free Trumpster election conspiracies. The "audit" was financed by rich Trumpsters who wanted to discredit the certified election results.  

Racist Karen Calls Cops on Man for Recording Her, Dubs him 'Illegal'

++++

1. Small Ball: 

A.  Pared RHHBY-Sold 5 at $49.7: 

Quote: Roche Holding AG ADR (RHHBY)

Closing Price 9/23/21: RHHBY $46.42 +$0.31 +0.67% 

Unlike other major pharmaceutical companies, Roche has a substantial testing and diagnostic business, accounting for 29% of 2021 first half revenues. Covid testing generated CHF2.5B in the first half. 

1 ADR = .125 ordinary 

Swiss Franc Quote: Roche Holding AG (Switzerland: SWX Europe)

CHF/USD | Swiss Franc-MarketWatch

Price appreciation for the USD priced ADR has been restrained by the Swiss National Bank's Jihad against its own currency that started in 2011 and continues to the present. 

Nonetheless, I view it as important to have some assets whose value is priced in Swiss Francs.  That can be accomplished by buying individual Swiss companies, the CEF Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. (SWZ), or the Franklin FTSE Switzerland ETF (FLSW). FLSW has a .09% expense ratio compared to .51% for the substantially larger AUM iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)

Roche - Pipeline

Roche website 

Roche - Historical Overview

I sold the five shares bought the day before the annual ex dividend which was on 3/18/21. Roche Holding Ltd ADR Dividend History (RHHBY)- Investing.com The 2020 annual dividend was $1.22 per share. I primarily engage in a dividend harvest strategy for this stock. The general idea is to harvest the dividend and look for a relatively quick 2%+ gain in the shares.  The percentage gain on this 5 share lot was 16.22% based on a total cost of $248.74. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Restarted RHHBY-Bought 5 at $41.6; 5 at $40.68  (4/9/21 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: $40.34 (8/26/21 Post)

Average Cost per share this account:  $40.45  (10 shares)  

Snapshot at close on 8/26/21

I also own 10 in my Schwab taxable account: 

Average Cost per share = $41.14

The snapshot references Schwab reclaiming part of the foreign dividend tax. As a U.S. citizen, the maximum tax rate is 15% under Article 10 of the U.S-Switzerland Tax Treaty. The broker has to claim my treaty rights at the source. A failure to do so will result in Switzerland confiscating 35% of the dividend amount, the maximum amount that it collects when an investor is a citizen of a country with no tax treaty capping the amount. The tax rate initially captured by Switzerland was at 35% which was reduced to about 15% due to Schwab asserting my tax treaty right.   

Dividend: Annual. Roche has increased the dividend for 34 straight years based on the CHF payout. The dividend for the USD priced ADR will depend in part on the CHF/USD conversion rate. 

To arrive at the CHF equivalent for the USD priced ADR, it is necessary to multiply those CHF dividend amounts by .125. A CHF dividend of 9.1 paid on the ordinary shares (the 2021 dividend amount) would be equivalent to CHF1.1375 for the ADR. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21 Post):  Roche reports good half-year results

Revenue for the first half : Up 8% to CHF 30.713B (constant currency)

Core E.P.S. = CHF10.56, up 8% 

Covid drugs: 

The most interesting one that is in trials is AT-527, which is a pill that does not require an infusion like the other Covid therapies. This drug is co-developed with Atea Pharmaceuticals. 

The Actemra/RoActemra drug generated CHF1.642B in 2021 first half revenues. The drug was  initially approved for multiple inflammatory diseases including rheumatoid arthritis. The FDA approved its use to treat Covid hospitalized patents in late June. FDA Authorizes Drug for Treatment of COVID-19 | FDA

Ronapreve, co-developed with Regeneron,  generated CHF 595M in first half revenues. Japan becomes first country to approve Ronapreve (casirivimab and imdevimab) for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19  (7/20/21) ("Outside Japan, the antibody combination has been authorised for emergency use or temporary pandemic use in additional territories and regions, including in the European Union, United States, India, Switzerland and Canada.")

Free Cash Flow: 

Sourced: Page 12  Half Year Report.pdf

The most serious headwind is that 3 key drugs are subject now to biosimilar competition: 

Sourced: Page 9

Product Sales: 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab Customers): 

Morningstar (9/13/21): 4 stars with a FV of $58  

Argus (8/30/21): Buy, raised target price to $56 from $50 

B. Sold 1 ETSY at $213.2: 

Quote: ETSY

ETSY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ETSY SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Discussed at Item # 3.A. Bought 1 ETSY at $159.7 (6/4/21 Post)(noting that I viewed ETSY as overpriced at $159.7 using traditional valuation measures. I may be the only investor left using those criteria.) 

Profit Snapshot: $53.5

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP Diluted E.P.S. = $.68, down from $.75 in the 2020 second quarter that was juiced higher by mask sales. 

Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin Calculations:

Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $139.473M, down from $150.628M in the 2020 second quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 26% from 35%. 

C. Bought 10 SPTN at $21.36; 5 at $21; 5 at $20.5: 

Quote: SpartanNash Co. (SPTN) 

Closing Price 9/23/21: SPTN $20.71 +$0.23 +1.12% 

SPTN "is a Fortune 400 company whose core businesses include distributing grocery products to a diverse group of independent and chain retailers, its corporate-owned retail stores and U.S. military commissaries and exchanges; as well as operating a premier fresh produce distribution network. SpartanNash serves customer locations in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, Europe, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Honduras, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Djibouti. SpartanNash currently operates 148 supermarkets, primarily under the banners of Family Fare, Martin's Super Markets, D&W Fresh Market, VG's Grocery and Dan's Supermarket. Through its MDV military division, SpartanNash is a leading distributor of grocery products to U.S. military commissaries."

SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 9/20/21, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was at $1.79 and at $1.92 for 2022)

SPTN SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

I discussed my first purchase in a 8/27/21 comment.

Investment Category: Bond Substitute with some Dividend Growth/Contrarian Value

Current Average Cost per share = $21.05  (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share. 

Yield at AC = 3.8%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/21 (owned 15 as of) 

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 7/17/21):  SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.47

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.54 

"Cash generated from operating activities of $105.4 million during the second quarter, leading to a $75.8 million net pay down of long-term debt."

Net sales at $2.11B

SPTN increased "the low end of the fiscal 2021 profitability outlook range. EPS is now expected to range from $1.56 to $1.69 per diluted share, with adjusted EPS expected to range from $1.70 to $1.80 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA to range from $200 to $210 million."

Calculation of Adjusted Earnings: 

$.5397 per diluted share

D. Bought 5 HR at $30.08: 

Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. 

Closing Price 9/23: HR $31.04 -$0.02 -0.06% 

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute

HR SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

HR 2020 Annual Report 

Prior HR Common Stock Trades and HTA Valuation: I view HR as mildly overpriced. I have a larger position in Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA) which I view as currently overpriced as well, but my purchases were well below the current price.  

Average Cost = $22.35; Closing Price as of 9/23/21

{Last HTA Pare: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 HTA  at $28.17 and 10 at $29.27 (7/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.58}

This was a quick HR dividend harvest trade. Item # 2 Sold 50 HR at $26.33 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $103.07, harvested 1 dividend)-Item # 2 Bought 50 HR at $23.95 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 8/11/15/Interest Rate Cycles And REIT Stock Prices - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Dividend: Quarterly at $.303, last "raised" from $.30 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment. The $.30 penny rate was initiated in 2013.  I would characterize this dividend history as a major negative. 

Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $30.08: 4.03%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

HR presents three cash flow numbers: FFO, Normalized FFO and FAD (Funds Available for Distribution): 

FFO per share = $.42

Normalized FFO per Share = $.43, up 1 cent from the 2020 second quarter

FAD per share (not calculated by HR) = $.34 

During the quarter, HR acquired 8 medical office buildings (467,000 square feet) for $216.9  

Subsequent to 6/30/21 to the earnings press release, HR acquired 6 medical office buildings (371,000 square feet) for $119.4M. 

YTD, "the Company sold eleven medical office buildings totaling 547,000 square feet for $114.6 million at a weighted average cap rate of 4.1%."

"same store cash NOI for the second quarter increased 2.9% over the second quarter of 2020. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2021, same store cash NOI grew 2.3%."

IMO, the problem with this company is that it is growing cash flow per share. FFO and FAD are increasing but so is the share count as the company funds acquisitions with public stock offerings and new debt. 

For example, FFO per share was at $43.853M or  $.42 per share for the 3 month period ending 6/30/16. The diluted share count was then at 104.77M. Debt was at $1.414+B. SEC Filed Press Release 

Five years later for the Q/E 6/30/21, FFO did increase significantly to $59.757M but FFO per share was still at $.42.  The diluted share count increased to 142.914M. The debt increased to $1.614+B. So that explains in a nutshell why there are no dividend increases. Management is not adding value for the shareholders with their constant acquisitions and dispositions when measured by cash flow per share numbers. This result will also lead to a stagnant share price over long periods of time. 

Broker Reports: I do not have access to any reports on this stock. Raymond James downgraded to market perform from outperform after the last earnings report. 

My last transaction in an HR security was to buy its 3.75% SU bonds maturing on 4/15/23, with the total cost at 98.861. Item # 3.A. (1/30/19 Post) This bond was called early by the issuer and was subject to a make whole payment. 

2020 HR 3.75% SU Bond +$178.04

After that early call, I am down to owning just 1 HR 3.875% SU bond that matures in 2025: 

Maximum Position: 100 shares

Purchase Restriction: Average down only in 5 share lot increments, subject to small ball trading rules which means here selling into price pops and buying into dips.    

E. Added to PAY-Bought 1 at $25.25; 1 at $22.83: 

Quote:  Paymentus Holdings

"Paymentus is a leading provider of cloud-based bill payment technology and solutions for more than 1,300 billers across North America. Our omni-channel platform provides consumers with easy-to-use, flexible and secure electronic bill payment experiences through their preferred payment channel and type. Paymentus’ proprietary Instant Payment NetworkTM, or IPN, extends our reach by connecting our IPN partners’ platforms and tens of thousands of billers to our integrated billing, payment, and reconciliation capabilities. Approximately 16 million consumers and businesses used the Paymentus platform to pay their bills and engage with our billers as of December 2020." 

Website: Powering the Next Generation of Electronic Bill Payments

PAY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

PAY SEC Filings

IPO Prospectus (offered at $21 last May)

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (maximum investment for Lottos is $1,000 + any prior realized gains)

This Lotto is not working out. 

Current position and average cost per share:  $30.14  (8 shares)

Only Blog Discussions: Item # 2.I. Added to PAY-Bought 1 at $31; 1 at $30.5; 1 at $29 (8/5/21 Post); Item # 1.G. Bought 1 PAY at $35; 1 at $34.5; 1 at $33 (7/15/21 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Paymentus (PAY) SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP net income of E.P.S. $.6M; 

Non-GAAP net income of $2.6M or $.02 per share;

in line; revenue = $93.5M, up 30.3% from the 2020 second quarter; 

"processed 64.2 million transactions, an increase of 39% from the second quarter of 2020"; 

cash and cash equivalents = $266.4M; 

"expects revenue for the full year 2021 to be between $378 million and $382 million or 25% to 27% growth. Contribution profit is anticipated to be between $152 million and $154 million or 26% and 28% growth. It expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $25 million and $28 million, which is a margin of 16.5% to 18.5%." 

F. Restarted CARA-Bought 2 at $13.9; 3 at $13.7: 

Quote:  Cara Therapeutics Inc.  (CARA) 

Closing Price 9/23: CARA $15.85 +$0.22 +1.41% 

Website: Cara Therapeutics

I discussed this stock recently in a 8/24/21 comment. 

Realized gains to Date: $493.46

2016 CARA 50 shares +$233.11

2017 CARA 50 shares $260.35 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket  

Last Discussed in South Gent's Comment Blog # 8 (sold 50 at $9.98 that had been bought at $5.31)

The risk in owning CARA has been reduced some after the FDA approved last month its drug KORSUVA for treating "moderate-to-severe pruritus associated with chronic kidney disease in adults undergoing hemodialysis."  Cara Therapeutics and Vifor Pharma announce U.S. FDA approval of KORSUVA™ (difelikefalin) injection for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pruritus in hemodialysis patients 

Cara discovered this compound and brought in Vifor Pharma as a partner: "Vifor Pharma and Cara have agreed to an exclusive license to commercialize KORSUVA™ in the United States. That agreement features a Cara 60%, Vifor Pharma 40% profit-sharing arrangement in non-Fresenius Medical Care clinics in the U.S. Under a previous agreement, Vifor Fresenius Medical Care Renal Pharma and Cara Therapeutics have agreed to market KORSUVA™ injection to Fresenius Medical Care North America dialysis clinics in the U.S. under a Cara 50%, Vifor Pharma 50% profit-sharing arrangement."

This drug is in trials for other pruritus indications. The drug failed to meet its primary and secondary endpoints for treating atopic dermatitis which caused a 50% or so plunge in the stock price last April. Cara Therapeutics Announces Topline Results From KARE Phase 2 Dose-Ranging Trial of Oral KORSUVA™ in Atopic Dermatitis Patients with Moderate-to-Severe Pruritus KORSUVA was administered in tablet form, which may have impacted its performance compared to injecting the drug.  

Cara is still pursuing a trial for this indication based on better results when the patient received a 1mg tablet as opposed to the patients receiving .25mg and .5mg. ("a statistically significant improvement from baseline was evident as early as week 1 for the 1 mg dose group which was sustained through 75% of the treatment period.") 

G. Pared PSEC Again-Sold 5 at $8.12: 

Quote: Prospect Capital Corp.  (PSEC)- A BDC 

Closing Price 9/23: PSEC $7.94 +$0.04 +0.51% 

I classify PSEC as a deservedly hated BDC. Recent results have been somewhat encouraging. I will occasionally play the stock as an income producing Lottery Ticket but will be hyperactive in trading it.  

SEC SEC Filings

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 6/30/21 (risk summary starts at page 31 and ends at page 78) Once that risk summary is read and digested, a rational response would be to just stay away)

Investor Relations: Prospect Capital Corporation

Last Buy Discussion: Item #1.P. Multiple Small Ball Purchases of PSEC-Sold 105 and Kept 42+ (2/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.88) 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.N. Sold All PSEC Shares Purchased with dividends at $7.8 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.97) 

Profit Snapshot:  $13.71 (8/27/21 sale only) 

I previously eliminated all shares purchased with dividends. I have turned off dividend reinvestment. 

Average Cost per share this account = $4.98 (20 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 8/27/21 after pare

The AC was reduced from $5.08.

Dividend: Monthly at $.06 per share ($.72 annually)

Yield at $4.98 Total Cost per share = 14.46%  

Net Asset Value per share history:

6/30/21:   $9.81 

12/30/20  $8.96 10-Q p. 4 

6/30/20:  $8.18  10-K p. 122 

6/30/19:   $9.01

6/30/18    $9.35

6/30/17    $9.32

6/30/15    $10.31

6/30/14    $10.56    PSEC 2014 10-K

6/30/09   $12.40    Form 10-K at page 46

6/30/08   $14.55

6/30/06   $15.31

IPO in July 2004 at $15   

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

NII per share = $.19

Quarterly Dividend: $.18

PSEC's "weighted average cost of unsecured debt financing was 4.86%, a decrease of 0.36% from March 31, 2021, and a decrease of 0.88% from June 30, 2020."

Annualized Yield on Performing Debt Investments: 11.7%

Number of Portfolio Companies: 124

Total investments at "fair value": $6.201+B 

H. Pared FITB again-Sold 2 at $39.55: 

Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp   (FITB)

Closing Price 9/23: FITB $40.76 +$1.71 +4.38% 

FITB SEC Filings

FITB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: $39.91 (8/27/21 sale only)

Average cost per share this account: $15.28 (10 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 8/27/21 after pare 

I have sold all shares purchased with dividends and have turned off dividend reinvestment.  

The AC was reduced from $16 per share. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share. 

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend on its Common Shares 3 cents, or approximately 11%, to $0.30 per Share

Yield at $15.28: 7.85% 

Next Ex Dividend: 9/29/21

Last Earnings Report (6/30/21):  Fifth Third Announces Second Quarter 2021 Results 

Net Income: $674M

Diluted E.P.S. = $.94

Consensus E.P.S. at $.806

NIM = 2.63%, down from 2.75% in 2020 2nd Q

Efficiency Ratio: 59.1%

ROA = 1.38%

ROE = 13%

ROTE = 16.6%

NPA Ratio: .61%

NPL Ratio: .58%

Coverage Ratio: 358%

Charge Off Ratio: .16%

Tangible Book Value Per Share: $23.34

My average cost per share is at a 34.53% discount to the 6/30/21 tangible book value per share.  

FITB Realized Gains to Date = $1,159.99

The two largest gains were taken in 2017. Item # 2.A. Sold 50 FITB at $24.57 (7/3/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $443.21); Item # 2.C. Sold 50+ FITB at $27.53 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $481.05)

I. Restarted OHI-Bought 5 at $32.94; 1 at $31.44: 

Quote: Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI)

OHI SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 14 and ends at page 27)

I am wary of REITs that own nursing homes. Many of the operators are barely solvent. Covid has increased their costs in a variety of ways and reduced their occupancy levels, making them even more dicey as tenants.

Last Buy Discussions (shares have been sold): Item # 3.C. Bought 5 OHI at $25.62 (2/19/18 Post); Item 1.B. Bought 5 OHI at $26.6 (11/26/17 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.67 per share, last raised from $.66 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment

Dividends – Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.

Yield at $32.94: 8.14%

Last Ex Dividend: 7/30/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

OHI provides 3 cash flow numbers: FFO, AFFO and FAD: 

IMO, the most relevant cash flow number is Funds Available for Distribution ("FAD"). This number excludes non-cash revenue (pretend cash) that is created by the straight line accounting convention. Pretend cash is not available to support the dividend. 

Per Diluted Share using 244M weighted average shares

FFO = $.76

AFFO = $.8476  (adds back $17.401M in write-offs of straight line rent receivables)

FAD = $.807

Since straight line rent receivables is pretend cash, I do not have a problem a problem in adding $17.401M back to FFO. If that sum was not added back, FAD per share would be reduced to $.736 which is still in excess of the quarterly dividend of $.67.    

OHI collected 99% of its contractual rent during the quarter. 

"As of June 30, 2021, the Company had $5.3 billion of outstanding indebtedness with a weighted-average annual interest rate of 4.19%.  The Company’s indebtedness consisted of an aggregate principal amount of $4.9 billion of senior unsecured notes, a $50.0 million unsecured term loan, and $365.8 million of secured debt.  As of June 30, 2021, total cash and cash equivalents were $100.8 million and the Company had its full $1.45 billion of undrawn capacity on its Credit Facility."

Trading: So far, I have successfully traded OHI with a total realized gains of  $1,503.51. (see snapshots at Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy My last trade was an elimination. Item # 3.C. Eliminated OHI-Sold 26 at $31.44 (6/25/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $115.71). The elimination occurred after an earlier pare: Item # 1.C. Sold 31 OHI at $30.13 (6/7/18 Post)

Other Sell Discussions starting in 2017: 

Item # 6. Sold 100 OHI at $37.28: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 8/27/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Item # 6 Sold 39 Shares at $32.56  (10/5/17 POST) 

Item #5.A. Sold 107 OHI at $34.55 (7/15/17 Post) 

Item 2.A. Sold 52+ OHI at $33.6-Eliminated Position in Roth IRA account  (5/8/17 Post)-Vanguard account 

J. Pared SWZ-Sold 3.536 at $10-Remaining Shares Purchased with Dividends: 

Quote: Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. Overview This CEF owns Swiss stocks. 

Closing Price 9/23/21: SWZ $9.53 +$0.10 +1.06% 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.O. Averaged Up-Bought 3 SWZ  at $8.83 (3/13/21 Post); Item # 2 Bought 100 SWZ at $7.92.(7/18/20 Post)

Sponsor's Website: SWZ Fund - Schroders

SWZ SEC Filings

Top 10 Holdings as of 8/31/21:  

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 6/30/21): SEC Filing 

"On November 20, 2018, the Fund accepted for cash purchase 24,638,918 shares of the Fund’s common stock at a price equal to $7.86 per share, which represented 98% of the Fund’s NAV per share of $8.02 as of the close of the regular trading session of the New York Stock Exchange on November 19, 2018.  As a result of the purchase of the 24,638,918 shares, the Fund had 13,267,111 shares of common stock outstanding."

Profit Snapshot: +$6.77 (8/30/21 sale only)

New Average Cost per share: $7.57 (100 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 8/30/21 after pare

Data Date of 8/30/21 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $11.49

Closing Market Price: $10

Discount: -12.97%

Sourced: SWZ CEF Connect (Click Pricing Information Tab)

Dividend History

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off. 

K. Eliminated VGK: Sold 3 VGK at $69.98-Fidelity Account and 6 at $70.27-Schwab Account:

Quote: VGK | Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF

European stock stock ETFs have substantially underperformed the S & P 500. 

SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Performance-Morningstar

Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) Performance-Morningstar

Expense Ratio: .08%

Holdings: 1,333 stocks as of 8/31/21

Profit Snapshots: +$152.87

Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Restarted VGK- Bought 5 at $53.73; 1 at $51.97 (8/15/20 Post) 

Top 10 Holdings as of 8/31/21: 

Prior Sell Discussions:  Item # 4.A. Sold 109 VGK at $56.97 (8/10/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $747.31); Item # 3.E. Sold 25 VGK at $50.21 (3/8/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.87)

Other Round-Trips Not Discussed: +$23.57

VGK Realized Trading Gains to Date = $967.62

L. Pared CUBE again-Sold 1 at $53.15:

Quote: CubeSmart

Closing Price 9/23: CUBE $50.80 -$0.57 -1.11% 

CUBE owns, operates and develops self-storage properties. 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Corporate Profile

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Bought 19 CUBE at $22, 2 at $21.55, 1 at $19.74 (4/25/20 Post)

Profit Snapshot:  $31.38 (8/30/21 sale only)

Average Cost per share this account: $21.19 (9 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday 8/30/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share, last raised from $.33 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment. 

CubeSmart Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at new AC = 6.42%

Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

"FFO, as adjusted, was $105.4 million for the second quarter of 2021, compared with $79.9 million for the second quarter of 2020. FFO per share, as adjusted, increased 22.0% to $0.50 for the second quarter of 2021, compared with $0.41 for the same period last year."

"The Company’s same-store portfolio at June 30, 2021 included 511 stores containing approximately 35.7 million rentable square feet, or approximately 91.5% of the aggregate rentable square feet of the Company’s 547 consolidated stores. These same-store properties represented approximately 90.6% of property NOI for the three months ended June 30, 2021."

"Same-store physical occupancy as of June 30, 2021 and 2020 was 96.1% and 93.7%, respectively. Same-store revenues for the second quarter of 2021 increased 14.0% and same-store operating expenses increased 6.6% from the same quarter in 2020. Same-store NOI increased 17.6% from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021."

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.E. Sold 3 CUBE at $47.49 (7/23/21 Post) 

M. Added to GNL-Bought 3 at $16.49; 5 at $16.12: 

Quote: Global Net Lease Inc.

Closing Price 9/23: GNL $16.41 +$0.11 +0.67% 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

GNL SEC Filings; 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21

Management: External  

GNL is a disfavored REIT as shown by its current dividend yield and chart. 

I am averaging up in tiny bites in my Fidelity taxable account, hoping to harvest the dividend without losing money on the shares. I will probably sell the highest shares somewhere in the $18 to $20 range, provided I have received at least 1 quarterly dividend on those lots. 

New AC per share this account : $14.48 (110+ shares) 

I discussed this REIT in my last post and have nothing substantive to add here. Item # 2.G. (9/17/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share

Yield at new AC =  11.05%

I own shares in 2 Roth IRA accounts and 2 other taxable accounts. All of those positions have a lower average cost per share.  The largest of those positions is in my Vanguard Taxable account at 28 shares with a $10.34 average cost per share: 

As of close on 9/23/Yield at $10.34 = 15.47%

The position in my Schwab taxable account is just 7+ shares  with an average cost per share of $9.99, driven higher by subsequent dividend reinvestments which I had turned off and have just turned back on. 

As of Close 9/23/Yield at $9.99 = 16.02%

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.