Economy:
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) In the BEA's first estimate, real GDP growth in the third quarter was reported at a 4.9% annualized rate. There was a surge compared to the second quarter in personal consumption expenditures:
Price Indexes:
U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2023 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):
Annual Core PCE Price Index = 3.7% (down from a 4.7% annual increase through May 2023)
Month-to Month Core PCE Price Index: .3%
Annual PCE Price Index = 3.4%
Personal Spending: Up .7% vs .5% consensus
Discussed at Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% as expected in September; spending tops estimate
US warns Iran, its proxies over attacks on American targets - ABC News Iranian proxies are increasing their attacks on U.S. bases located in Syria and Iraq. Intelligence shows Iranian-backed militias are ready to ramp up their attacks against US forces in the Middle East The possibility of a wider conflict is increasing, which is what Iran wants. The Axis of Resistance Has Been Gathering Strength - The Atlantic
Treasury Yield Curve - October 2023:
Real Treasury Yield Curve: Note that the five year real yield has been moving back down some.
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.42%
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills: None
I mentioned in my last post that I would not buy any treasury bills during the W/E 10/27/23.
I was at least considering using most of the proceeds received in my Schwab account to buy stocks or stock funds. That did not happen.
$2K of the T Bill proceeds received in that account was used to purchase a CD and another $2K was used to purchase more shares in the Schwab Treasury Obligations Money Fund - Investor Shares (SNOXX), which has a 7 day SEC yield of 5.05%.
SNOXX is not a settlement fund. To move money back into the Schwab settlement fund that pays .45%, I would need to enter a sell order prior to the market's close and then the funds will be available in my settlement account the next day.
SNOXX Purchase: $2,000 (monthly dividend payments)
I currently have $11+K in SNOXX that can be used to quickly fund stock purchases without waiting for a T bill to mature.
CDs - FDIC Insured: $2,000 (monthly interest payments)
Corporate Bonds: $3,000 in principal amount
Common Stocks: +$17.48
(consisting of $524.23 in purchase minus $506.75 in proceeds)
Weighted Yield of Common Stock Purchases: 7.68%
Net Inflow Stock CEFs/ETFs: +$ 257.19
(Consisting of $433.15 in purchases minus $175.96 in proceeds)
Net Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: +$ 274.67
Leveraged Balanced CEFs: +$795.75 (weighted yield at 9.73%). I am classifying AIO, AVK, JRI and THQ in this category. Those funds own a mixture of common and preferred stocks, convertible securities and bonds.
Leveraged Bond CEFs = +$91.75 (yield at 11%)
Unleveraged Preferred Stock ETF: +$78.75 (yield at 7.94%)
Equity Preferred Stocks: +$227.96 (weighted yield at 9.29%)
2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$35,961.54
I am allowed under my strict trading rules, which emphasize capital preservation and income generation, to buy up to $35,961.54 in stocks and stock funds prior to year end. Unless the bottom falls out of the stock market, I am not going to come close to that number.
I am done selling common stocks and stock funds this year.
+++
Trump and His Anti-Democracy Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Ex-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows granted immunity, tells special counsel he warned Trump about 2020 claims: Sources - ABC News This is ominous for Trump since Meadows was the traffic cop for Trump's effort to remain in power.
DOJ Accuses Trump Of Threatening Mark Meadows—Asks Judge To Reinstate Gag Order - Forbes
Jenna Ellis: Former Trump campaign lawyer pleads guilty in Georgia case; Jenna Ellis becomes 4th defendant to take plea deal in Georgia election case, regrets representing Trump - ABC News; Another Trump lawyer who pushed to overturn 2020 election pleads guilty - POLITICO Ellis is the third Trump lawyer to plead guilty in the Georgia election subversion case. She worked closely with the Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani in the efforts to overturn the election results. Giuliani has the most to lose from Ellis turning into a prosecution witness. Jenna Ellis’ plea deal in Georgia puts spotlight on Rudy Giuliani
Trump compares himself to Nelson Mandela as he rails against criminal charges against him
Trump rages as former acolytes turn against him under legal heat
Mitt Romney on today's Republican Party - YouTube (Romney: Republicans no longer believe in democracy)
Trump's Pardon of General Flynn Under Scrutiny After Sidney Powell Flips
Fact check: Trump falsely claims the US had no terrorist attacks during his presidency There is no well known person alive today who is more dishonest than Donald IMO.
The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House - The Atlantic
Mike Johnson elected House speaker with unanimous GOP support, ending weeks of chaos
Johnson like most other House republicans wanted to overturn the certified presidential tally in 4 states won by Biden by seeking in part a Supreme Court ruling that would authorize the republican dominated legislatures in those states to decide who won. Mike Johnson played a central role in trying to overturn the 2020 vote - The Washington Post
House Members Who Signed a Brief Asking the Supreme Court to Consider Overturning the Election | Represent | ProPublica (Johnson was one of them. It is clear that those republicans wanted to cancel millions of votes that were cast by legally registered voters in 4 states won by Biden who relied on interpretations of state law made prior to the election, primarily relating to mail-in ballots)
Prayer for Relief: The republicans requested the Supreme Court to enjoin the certified electors in 4 states won by Biden from casting their votes or, alternatively, to allow the republican dominated legislatures in those states to decide who won. Both requests were to cancel the certified vote totals in favor of Biden and to elect Donald as President notwithstanding the vote totals certified by those states.
The only republican who is mentioned by name in the heading is Mike Johnson:
House Republican tells reporter to ‘shut up’ for asking Johnson about overturning 2020 election-The Hill; GOP Lawmaker Tells Reporter to 'Shut up' After Asking About Efforts to Overturn the 2020 Election
In that regard, Johnson's strong authoritarian impulses are now standard among most House republicans and Trumpsters in general. Trump ally lobbying fellow House Republicans to support Texas lawsuit seeking to overturn the election; Speaker of the House Mike Johnson once wrote in support of the criminalization of gay sex He would also criminalize all abortions and does not believe in climate change. Election denier, climate skeptic, anti-abortion: seven beliefs of new US House speaker Mike Johnson-The Guardian; Speaker of the House Mike Johnson once wrote in support of the criminalization of gay sex Prior to entering politics, Johnson worked for the the Alliance Defending Freedom which is designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Johnson is far right on the political spectrum, which makes him now a mainstream republican. Alliance Defending Freedom | Southern Poverty Law Center
Every House republican voted for Johnson except for 1 who was not present.
Johnson was Trump's choice after he was unable to push Jordan through.
Trump still controls the republican party.
'Morning Joe’ Fears Mike Johnson's House Will ‘Steal This Election’ Joe Scarborough is a former republican congressman from Florida.
Opinion | The G.O.P. Goes Full-on Extremist - The New York Times (opinion by Paul Krugman)
MAGA Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) Gives Disgraceful Nominating Speech Full of Lies
+++
Putin and his Orwellian Empire of Misery:
Russian Drone Hits Near Ukrainian Nuclear Plant In Latest Wave Of Deadly Attacks
'Horrific' Russian attack on postal depot kills six in eastern Ukraine Russians deliberately target civilians facilities and civilians on a daily basis.
Putin loses entire brigade as Avdiivka attack stalls | Frontline - YouTube The Russian alternative for competent tactical assaults is to order Russians to charge over open terrain hoping that the Ukrainians will run out of bullets. If they refuse to obey that kind of order, similar to the one given by General Lee to General Pickett at Gettysburg (Pickett's Charge), Russian commanders will execute the non-complying Orcs. Russia executing own retreating soldiers-BBC News; Russia executes own soldiers and offensive intensifies
‘Everything is destroyed’: Civilians trickle out of Avdiivka as Russian assault leaves Ukrainian town in ruins Russians just bring misery, death and destruction. Russia has not yet "liberated" Avdiivka. Even if the offensive is successful, there will be nothing left for the 32,436 residents who lived there prior to Russia's invasion which is viewed as a good result by the Russians. Russia intensifies fight over Avdiivka, another ruined city - The Washington Post
Russian parliament's upper house rescinds ratification of global nuclear test ban - ABC News Immediately thereafter, the Orcs conducted a rehearsal for a massive nuclear strike. Russia Says It Rehearsed Delivering 'Massive' Retaliatory Nuclear Strike This is just another part of Russia's terror and intimidation campaign. Russia is a state sponsor of terrorism and needs to be declared as being one.
Russia 'relying on convict units for human wave attacks' - YouTube
++++
China - The Bully of Asia:
Video shows Chinese J-11 jet flying within 10 feet of B-52, U.S. says - The Washington Post China is deliberately causing near collisions with U.S. aircraft flying over international waters. China is illegally claiming most of the South China Sea as its territory. An international tribunal found that China's territorial claims had no merit or basis in fact. Tribunal Rejects Beijing’s Claims in South China Sea - The New York Times
Analysts: China Tests US Commitment to Indo-Pacific in South China Sea
US Sees 'Sharp Increase' in Chinese Military's Coercive, Risky Behaviors
++
Iran is also part of the Axis of Evil: Armita Geravand: Iranian teen dies following alleged assault by morality police She was not wearing a headscarf.
++++
1. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
A. Added to PINE - Bought 5 at $14.9; 5 at $14.4 - Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE) - Externally Managed Net Lease REIT
Cost: $146.5
52 week price range: $14.25-$20.79
I discussed the 5 share purchase at $14.4 in a comment published last Monday. The $14.4 price was a new 52 week low and was the price of the opening trade. My limit order was entered prior to the market opening at $14.5. It was filled at the opening price.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 5 PINE at $15.35 (6/3/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $16.51 (35 Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.275 per share ($1.1 annually); last raised from $.27 effective for the 2022 third quarter.
PINE Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 6.66%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
The Stock Jocks reacted negatively to this report and revised 2023 guidance sending the stock down $2.12 or 12.81% (10/20/23), closing at $14.43.
FFO per share: $.37
AFFO per share: $.38, down from $.42 in the 2022 third quarter.
AFFO per share did miss the consensus by $.01.
This was at least partly due to selling 8 retail net leased properties in the quarter while acquiring 3.
The acquired properties had a going in cap rate of 9% and a weighted average lease term of 12.4 years.
The sold properties had an exit cap rate of 6.3% and recognized a $2.6M gain. I do not know how much of that gain was generated by depreciation lowering the tax cost basis. The only real gain from my viewpoint is selling the property for more than its original cost.
Another reason for the downtrend was that 7 Valero branded convenience store properties became vacant during the quarter due to the operator's bankruptcy and subsequent liquidation.
While PINE asserted during the conference call that the stores were small and the rents modest "in the context of" the total portfolio, the loss in rents and a marginal increase in borrowing costs occasioned thereby contributed to a lower 2023 guidance. The quarterly rent loss from this BK was described as "a little under $150,000" in base rent. Alpine Income Property Trust Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript-Insider Monkey
Looking at the list of tenants in the 2022 Annual Report, there are 13 Valero branded convenience stores listed near the bottom in annualized rent. 10-K at pages 8-9 (4 in Jackson, MS.; 4 in Leland, MS.; 4 in Cannon, Ohio; 1 in Cadiz, Ohio) Apparently, only 7 of the 13 were leased to the bankrupt tenant undergoing a Chapter 7 liquidation). PINE took a $2.9M impairment charge in the third quarter for those 7 properties. Page 18, 10-Q The charge is "equal to the estimated sales prices for the assets (as set forth in the executed letters of intent), less the book value of the assets as of September 30, 2023, less estimated costs to sell." That is material for this small REIT but not that important IMO given the overall size of the portfolio.
Net Income to FFO to AFFO per share:
Since a tenant is responsible for maintenance expenditures in a net lease, there is no deduction for that cash expense when calculating AFFO. The adjustments to FFO are minor and consists primarily of deducting non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention and adding back stock compensation and non-cash amortization "expenses".
Revised Guidance:
Property Portfolio as of 9/30/23: Occupancy at 99.1%
 |
| Tenants 2% or greater of total annualized base rent |
In addition to leasing owned properties, PINE has outstanding a secured construction loan that bears interest at 8.5% and at 9.25% after 7/25/24 until the loan matures in July 2025. 10-Q at page 15
Debt: Variable based on spreads to SOFR but turned into fixed rates with swap agreements.
PINE purchased 230,332 shares during the third quarter. The average cost per share was $16.78.
Weighted average diluted shares: 15.649+M
B. Added to STBA - Bought 5 at $25.95; 3 at $24.91 - Schwab Account:
Quote: S&T Bancorp Inc. (STBA)
Cost: $74.73
52 week price range: $24.51-$38.43
Headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania. The operating banks has 73 branches located in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
STBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Added to STBA - Bought 2 at $26.45 (4/29/23 Post)
New Average Cost per share: $29 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share ($1.28 annually), last raised from $.31 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 4.41%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/8/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and Supplement
Comparisons are to the 2022 third quarter.
Net Income: $33.5M, down from $37.2M
E.P.S.: $.87, down from $.95
Consensus E.P.S. estimate at $.91 per Schwab.
Quarterly Dividend Payout Ratio: 36.78%
NIM: 4.09%, up from 4.04% but down from 4.22% in the 2023 2nd Q.
Efficiency Ratio: 52.68%, up from 50.19%
NPL Ratio: .17%, down from .32%
NPA Ratio: .22%, down from .25%
Charge off ratio: .22%, down from .25%
ROTE: 15.78%, down from 18.46%
Total Capital Ratio: 15.01%, up from 14.43%
Tangible Book Value per share = $22.14; up from $19.87
Net Interest Income after provision for credit losses: $81.899M, up from $81.3M.
Interest expense rose to $35.572M from $6.037M.
Interest and dividend income increased to $122.959M from $89.835M (dividends $631K, up from $115K, with the remainder being interest income in both quarters)
The credit loss provision for the 2023 third quarter was $5.498M,unadjusted for taxes, up from $2.498M.
The allowance for credit losses reduces net interest income which lowers net income before taxes. The allowance may not be used later in a charge off, entirely or partially, which are still low for this bank. Adding more to the credit loss allowance than analysts expect can cause an earnings miss.
If I added back $2M in net after tax interest income by reducing part of the larger buildup in the credit loss allowance, the 2023 third quarter net income would then be $35.5M or $.926 per share, higher than the consensus estimate, compared to the actual $.87.
Banks took what turned out to be excessive credit loss allowances in 2020 that were later reversed, which added to income.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restrictions: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. Will consider increasing lot size purchases to 10 shares below $20. The consider to sell highest cost lot price is $35.
C. Added to ONB - Bought 5 at $13.81; 5 at $13.27 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Cost: $135.4
52 week price range: $11.66-$20.19
Old National Bancorp - Investor Relations
ONB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 10/27/23, the 2023 average E.P.S. estimate is $2.04 and $1.87 for 2024. Using the $1.87 2024 average estimate, the P/E at my AC of $13.9 is 7.43)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Restarted ONB - Bought 10 at $14.23; 5 at $13.97 (10/21/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $13.9 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually), last raised from $.13 effective for the 2020 first quarter
ONB Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
The dividend payout ratio is low for a bank.
Yield at New AC: 4.03%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2022 third quarter.
Net income: $143.8M, up from $136.199M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.49, up from $.47
Adjusted Net Income: $149.3M
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.51, unchanged
The adjustments to GAAP are merger related charges:
NIM FTE: 3.49%, down from 3.71%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio: 49.7%, down from 49.8%
NPL Ratio: .8%
Charge off ratio: .24%
ROTE = 20.2%, down from 20.5%
Tangible Book value per share: $9.87, up from $8.75
"Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis decreased to $380.9 million in the third quarter of 2023 compared to $388.0 million in the second quarter of 2023, driven by higher funding costs, partly offset by loan growth and higher rates on interest-earning assets."
ONB Realized Gains to Date: +$1,012.38 (currently at #21 in the Regional Bank Basket Strategy)
Last Elimination: Item # 4.D. Eliminated ONB - Sold 20 at $17.53 (7/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.01). I discussed the second quarter report in that post which I viewed favorably. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/23
Consider to sell range: >$17
D. Added to PFXF - Bought 5 at $15.75 (Schwab Account):
New Average Cost per share: $16.41 (30 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate.
Last 12 Dividends: $1.25 per share, rounded down
Yield at New AC (Using $1.25): 7.62%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/2/23 at $.1061 per share
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 76+ at $18.95 (8/1/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $133.4); Item # 1.B. Eliminated PFXF-Sold 110 at $20.51 (1/29/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.05)
PFXF Realized Gains to Date: $185.45
E. Added to DOC - Bought 5 at $14.25 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) - Internally Managed REIT
Cost: $71.25
52 week price range: $11.01 - $16.34
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to DOC - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $11.85 (9/30/23 Post)
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.D. Added to DOC - Bought 5 at $13.13; 5 at $12.95; 5 at $12.75; 5 at $12.38 (9/23/23 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/23
New Average cost per share: $13.08 (61+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 7.03%
Yield at $11.25: 8.18%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/2/23
IMO, medical office building REITs have purchased properties at low capitalization rates, mostly in the 4% to 5% range, which was not terribly disadvantageous to shareholders when money could be borrowed for 1% to 3%. With current borrowing costs above 5%, investors have soured big time on this property sector as reflected in this 2 year DOC price chart:
DOC Trading Profits to Date: $617.28
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated DOC- Sold 46+ at $17.66 (7/3/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $213.64)
F. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.45; 5 at $3.27 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc. Overview - Externally Managed BDC
Cost: $33.6
2023 Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 6/30/23 (Risk factor summary starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (maximum investment $1K, excluding shares purchased with dividends)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Added to ICMB - Bought 10 at $3.65 (7/8/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $4.52 (164+ shares)
Regular Dividends: Quarterly at $.12 per share ($.48 annually), reduced from $.13 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment, which was cut from $.15 effective for the 2023 first quarter.
Special Dividends: While the regular dividends were reduced, special dividends kept the penny rate at $.15 for two quarters this year and at $.18 in the 2023 second quarter.
$.12 per share in special dividends were paid in 2023.
ICMB Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at $4.52: 10.62% (using only the current regular quarterly dividend of $.12 per share) The first dividend is paid in January and the last dividend in October.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/11/23
The next ex dividend will generally be in mid-December with an early January 2024 pay date.
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 6/30/23): This is the 4th fiscal quarter.
NII Per Share: $.15
Net Asset value per share: $6.09
Weighted average yield of debt investments: 12.45%
Loans: 99.6% at floating rates
First Lien Loans: 89.21% with 10.79% in equity, warrants and other investments
List of Investments: 10-K at pages 83-87
Nonaccrual investments have the number (9) next to the name.
There are 3 listed: American Teleconferencing (marked down to $217,077 from an amortized cost of $1.736+M, American Nuts ($7.52M at amortized cost, marked down to $6.06M) and 1888 Industrial Services which has been on nonaccrual for a long time. The loans to 1888 Industrial Services loans have an amortized cost of $8,907,534 and have already been marked down in value to $2,700,036. The two American Nuts loans were not on nonaccrual as of the 10-Q filing for the F/Q ending 3/31/23 (page 5)
Management Assessment of Credit Risks:
Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. (ICMB) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Goal: I will need a miracle to accomplish my goal for any BDC investment, which is a total return in excess of the dividends before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis.
G. Added to IVZ - Bought 5 at $12.55 (Schwab Account):
Quote: INVESCO Ltd. (IVZ)
Cost: $62.75
52 week range: $12.48 - $20.56
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to IVZ - Bought 5 at $13.2; 5 at $12.95; 5 at $12.75 (10/21/23 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 4.C. Eliminated IVZ - Sold 20 at $19.5 (11/22/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.66)
New Average cost per share: $13.35 (35 shares)
Dividend: $.20 per share
Yield at New AC per share: 5.99%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/9/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
GAAP E.P.S. = $.29
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.35
Consensus Non-GAAP at $.36 per Schwab.
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
Footnotes 8 and 10 explain the largest adjustments:
Assets Under Management: $1,487 billion (or $1.487T), down 3.3% from the prior quarter but up 12.4% year-over-year.
Net Debt: $247.6M, down from $478.7M as of 6/30/23
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (10/24/23): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of $16 and a narrow moat but the analyst expects to lower PT slightly.
S&P (10/24/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $15, lowered from $18.
Argus (10/24/23): Buy with a 12 month PT of $17 which represents of 10 times the analyst's non-GAAP E.P.S. estimate.
I do not have access to these reports published on 10/25: (1), the GS analyst reduced the PT to $14 from $15 while maintaining a neutral rating; (2) the MS analyst reduced the PT from $16 to $15 and maintained an equal weight rating.
IVZ Realized Gains to Date: $506.45
Largest Gain: Item # 1.A. Sold 83+ at $17.3-Schwab Account and Item # 1.B. Sold 71+ IVZ in Fidelity Taxable Account at $17.39 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $330.88)
SU Bond: I currently own 2 Invesco Finance 4% SU bonds, guaranteed by IVZ, maturing on 1/30/24, rated at A3 by Moody's and BBB+ by S&P. Bond Page | FINRA.org
Consider to sell range: $15 to $17 after at least 1 dividend payment, preferably 4 or more.
2. Small Ball CEF Buys:
Several leveraged CEFs have cut their dividends within the past year. The dividend cuts reduce the amount of ROC support.
While the reasons for the dividend cuts will vary, the following two causes are generally responsible: (1) the dividend payout can only be covered by short and long term capital gains and those are starting to evaporate particularly for CEFs that have significant exposure to stock sectors hit the hardest by the rise in interest rates (e.g. REITs, utilities, preferred stocks, bonds) and (2) significant leverage using borrowed funds priced at spreads to SOFR or other short term rates narrows or even eliminates the spread between the cost of borrowing and the yield on securities bought with borrowed money.
Using borrowed money to buy securities going down in price is just going to add to shareholder losses. Net asset value per share will sink faster than for an unleveraged fund.
During period of market turmoil and persistent declines in net asset value per share, the price discount to net asset value per share will increase, adding to unrealized losses of shareholders whose cost basis originates from a period prior to the turmoil, persistent declines in asset values, and increases in leverage costs.
The worst possible outcome for shareholders of leveraged funds is when there is a forced liquidation of securities to reduce leverage after asset values have been crushed. This is similar to a margin call. Examples occurred in 2008 and early 2009.
A. Added to THQ - Bought 5 at $16.14; 10 at $15.95; 5 at $15.6 (Schwab Account):
Cost: $318.2
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
SEC Filing- Holdings as of 6/30/23
Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 5 THQ at $16.86 (10/14/23 Post)
New Average Cost per share: $17.78 (65+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1125 per share ($1.35)
There is some ROC support so far this year. The only way to cover the dividend is through short and long term capital gains. Leverage cost, management fees, and other expenses will devour ordinary income. The monthly dividend has not yet been cut.
Yield at New AC = 7.59%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/19/23
Data as of 10/19/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $19.72
Closing Market Price: $16.15
Discount: -18.1%
Average 3 Year Discount: -6.16%
Data Date of 10/23/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $19.56
Closing Market Price: $15.8
Discount: -19.22%
Data Date of 10/26/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $19.24
Closing Market Price: $15.59
Discount: -18.97%
Sourced: THQ - CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" Tab)
THQ Realized Gains to Date: $822.13
B. Added to BTZ - Bought 5 at $9.21; 5 at $9.14 -Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust (BTZ)
Very slowly moving to a 100 share position
Cost: $91.75
SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the Semiannual Period ending 6/30/23 (information on BTZ starts at page 77)
Sponsor's website: BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust
Leveraged: Substantial at 36.63% as of 9/29/23
Number of Holdings as of 9/29/23: 1,634
Effective Duration as of 9/29/23: 5.78 years
BTZ-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
Credit Quality:
New Average cost per share: $9.87 (45+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0839 per share ($1.01 annually, rounded up)
ROC Supported.
Yield at New AC = 10.23%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/13/23
Data Date of 10/20/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $10.44
Closing Market Price: $9.16
Discount: -12.26%
Average 3 Year Discount: -6.16%
Sourced: BTZ - CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated BTZ- Sold Remaining 37+ Shares at $14.88 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $149.05)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.J. Pared BTZ-Sold Highest Cost Lots (6/13/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09);Item # 3.A. Eliminated BTZ Sold 50+ at $12.42 (4/4/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.1); Item #1.B. Sold 50 out of 100 BTZ at $12.05 (2/23/2019 Post)(profit = $23.5); Sold 103+ at $13.4+ (5/8/17 Post) (contains snapshots of trading profits starting in 2010 through May 2017 = +$870.19);
Goal: Harvest the dividends and sell at a profit before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
C. Added to AIO: Bought 5 at $15.85; 5 at $15.63; 5 at $15.15 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balanced CEF
Cost: $233.15
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 7/31/23 (AIO information starts at page 19)
Sector Allocations as of 7/31/23:
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Added to AIO - Bought 3 at $16.37 (10/14/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $16.88 (75+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.15 per share ($1.8 annually)
AIO Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
I owned a few shares when AIO went ex dividend for a $3.45 per share capital gain distribution that was paid in January 2022. I received that dividend in cash.
I turn on dividend reinvestment effective for the June 2022 payment.
Yield at New AC = 10.66%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/11/23
Data Date of 10/20/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share = $18.1
Closing Market Price: $15.61
Discount: -13.76%
Average 3 Year Discount: -9.36%
Data Date of 10/24/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $18.22
Closing Market Price: $15.64
Discount: -14.16%
Data Date of 10/27/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.79
Closing Market Price: $15.13
Discount: -14.95%
Sourced: AIO - CEF Connect
D. Added to LGI - Bought 10 at $13.01 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Lazard Global Total Return & Income Fund Overview - A Leveraged CEF
Cost: $130.1
SEC Filed Semiannual Shareholder Report for the period ending 6/30/23 The fund is leveraged at spreads to short term rates, pages 23-24; weighted average interest rate for the 6 months ending on 6/30/23 was 5.82%, up from .99% for the six months ending on 6/30/21, SEC Filing at page 24)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Sold Fractional LGI Share Purchased with Dividends at $19.93 (5/8/21 Post)
New Average Cost per share: $13.88 (35 Shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.094 per share ($1.128 annually), cut from $.1247 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
Yield at New AC: 8.13%, rounded up.
Next Ex Dividend: 11/19/23
Data Date of 10/23/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $15.55
Closing Market Price: $12.99
Discount: -16.46%
Average 3 Year Discount: -6.97%
Sourced: LGI-CEF Connect
E. Added to AVK - Bought 5 at $9.44 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Advent Convertible & Income Fund Overview
Cost: $47.2
This leveraged fund owns primarily convertible securities and junk bonds. Those sectors have been hit by the rise in interest rates. The fund also owns common stocks.
Leverage as of 4/30/23: "As of April 30, 2023, there was $173,000,000 outstanding in connection with the Fund’s credit agreement. The average daily amount of borrowings under the credit agreement during the period ended April 30, 2023, was $173,000,000, with a related weighted average interest rate of 4.87%. The maximum amount outstanding during the period was $173,000,000. As of April 30, 2023, the total value of securities segregated as collateral in connection with borrowings under the credit agreement was $483,782,685."
Investment category: Monthly Income Generation
Sponsor's website: Advent Convertible and Income Fund
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/23
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 7/31/23
New Average cost per share: $10.82 (16 shares)
Building my way at a crippled turtles speed to 100 shares.
Dividend: Monthly at $.1172 per share ($1.4064 annually)
ROC supported.
The amount of ROC is estimated by CEFs during the year. The final tabulation is made after year end.
2022 Tax Information:
The fund avoided ROC support in 2021 through realized capital gains:
Yield at AC = 13%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/23
Data Date of 10/23/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $10.95
Closing Market Price: $9.39
Discount: -14.25
Average 3 Year Discount: -6.67%
Sourced: AVK-CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 3.O. Eliminated AVK - Sold 10 at $19.52 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.34)
F. Added 10 JRI at $9.98; 10 at $9.74 (Vanguard Taxable Account):
Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balanced CEF
Cost: $197.2
Leveraged as of 9/30/23 = 31.63% (sourced from Sponsor's website). The percent leveraged will vary with the portfolio's total value and any increase or decrease in the borrowed amount. Leverage is at a spread to SOFR. For the 6 months ending 6/30/23, the average weighted interest rate was at a 5.61% (sourced from semiannual report).
Asset allocation as of 9/30/23: These sectors will be adversely impacted by rising interest rates.
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth (JRI) Portfolio | Morningstar
Sponsor's website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund | Closed-End Fund | Nuveen
Number of Holdings as of 9/30/23: 410
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.H. Added to JRI - Bought 10 at $11.09 (9/9/23 Post); Item # 1.F. Bought 20 JRI at $11.3 (9/2/2023 Post) I discussed the reasons for the most recent dividend cut in those posts.
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated JRI in my Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 130 at $12.13 (3/11/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.6)
New Average cost per share: $10.83
Dividend: Monthly at $.087 per share ($1.158 annually), cut from $.0965 effect for the March 2023 payment.
I quit reinvesting the dividend after the July 2021 payment and restarted reinvestment effective for the September 2023 payment. I will likely continue the reinvestment option for as long as the discount to net asset value per share remains over 10% and the reinvestment prices lower my average cost per share.
Yield at New AC: 10.69%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/23
Data Date of 10/24/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.89
Closing Market Price: $9.98
Discount: -16.06%
Average 3 Year Discount: -11.73%
Data Date of 10/26/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.78
Closing Market Price: $9.81
Discount: -16.77%
Sourced: JRI - CEF Connect
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Pared JRI Again-Sold 12.661 shares at $16.31-Remaining Shares Bought With Dividends in Fidelity Taxable Account (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.03); Item # 2.C. Pared JRI-Sold 22.235 at $16.11(8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.31); Item # 2.A. Pared JRI-Sold 30 at $15.9-highest cost shares (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.73); Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48 (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35); Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)
JRI Realized Gains to Date: $665.52 (includes $19.97 realized gain from selling 9 shares in my Vanguard account in July 2021 that was not discussed in posts)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
G. Added 5 RVT at $12.05; 5 at $11.95 (Schwab account):
Quote: Royce Value Trust Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $120
Sponsor's website: Royce Value Trust (RVT)
2022 SEC Filed Annual Report (RVT discussions starts at page 22)
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the Period Ending 6/30/23 (RVT discussion starts at page 38) As of 6/30/23, the value of investments was reported at $1.753+B with the total cost at $1.422+B.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added to RVT - Bought 5 at $13.95; 5 at $13.6 (9/9/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $12.83 (35+ shares)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Last 4 Dividends: $1.07 per share
Unless the fund realizes more capital gains prior to year end, part of the 2023 will be supported by ROC.
Yield at AC using $1.07: 8.34%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/8/23 (owned 25+ shares as of)
Data Date of 10/24/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $14
Closing Market Price: $12.07
Discount: -13.79%
Average 3 year discount: -9.2%
Sourced: RVT - CEF Connect
Royce Value Trust (RVT) Portfolio | Morningstar (Unrated, top 25 holdings listed)
RVT Realized Gains to Date: $791.5
Largest Gain: Item # 1 Sold 505+ RVT at $15.89 (8/3/13 Post)(profit snapshot =$435.93)
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Eliminated RVT in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $17.5 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.7)
Purchase Restriction: Averaging down in 5 to 10 share lots. No maximum position is currently set.
H. Added 5 GDV at $18.41; 5 at $18.2:
Quote: Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $183.05
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Sponsor's website: GDV
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/23
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to GDV - Bought 5 at $18.9 (10/14/23 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Sold 200 GDV at $21.03 (11/12/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,393.8)
New Average cost per share: $19.54 (36+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.11 per share ($1.32 annually)
GDV Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 6.76%, rounded up.
Next Ex Dividend: 11/14/23
Data Date of 10/25/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $22.25
Closing Market Price: $18.39
Discount: -18.08%
3 Year Average Discount: -12.54%
Data Date of 10/27/23 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $22.08
Closing Market Price: $18.17
Discount: -17.71%
Sourced: GDV - CEF Connect
Gabelli Dividend & Income (GDV) Portfolio-Morningstar
3. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
The first two equity preferred stocks discussed below were issued by bank holding companies that pay non-cumulative dividends.
When and if the FDIC seizes the operating banks owned by a bank holding company, the equity preferred stock issued by that company will become worthless or almost so. The downside is a zero price.
On a more positive note, a bank holding company would not want to eliminate both the common and preferred share dividends to preserve capital, since that announcement would most likely result in a deposit run and an FDIC seizure of the operating bank.
In the past, bank holding companies have dealt with financial stress by reducing the quarterly common share dividend to 1 cent per share and by continuing to pay the non-cumulative equity preferred dividend. I would generally anticipate that a bank holding company preferred stock dividend to be paid up to the point of a bankruptcy filing.
A. Added 5 TCBIO at $15.95; 2 at $15.6 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. 5.75% Preferred Series B
Cost: $110.95
Issuer: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. (TCBI)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/23
Last Discussed Item # 3.A. Added to TCBIO - Bought 5 at $17.95 (9/9/23 Post)
TCBIO Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75% paid on the $25 par value
Stopper Clause: Standard (enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash compared only to the common shareholders)
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
New Average cost per share: $17.66 (27 shares)
Yield at New AC = 7.79%, rounded up.
(.055% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.375 annual dividend per share ÷ $17.66 total average cost per share = 7.786%)
Yield at $15.60: 8.81%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/30/23
B. Added to BOHPRA - Bought 2 at $12.9:
Quote: BOH-PA
Cost: $25.8
Issuer: Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH)
BOH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
BOH SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/23
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added to BOHPRA - Bought 5 at $13.42 (10/14/23 Post)
Coupon: 4.375% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative
New Average cost per share: $13.94 (12 shares)
Yield at New AC = 7.85%, rounded up
Yield at $12.9: 8.48%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/16/23
C. Added to FBRTPRE - Bought 2 at $18.32; 3 at $18.19 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock (FBRT-PE)
Cost $91.21
Issuer: Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. (FBRT)
Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. (FBRT)
Last Discussed: Item # 6.B. (10/7/23 Post)
Coupon: 7.5% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, non-qualified and cumulative
Average cost per share: $19.30 (20 shares)
Yield at AC = 9.715%
Yield at $18.19: 10.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/28/23 (owned 10 as of)
4. Corporate Bonds:
Both of the bonds discussed below are First Mortgages.
A. Bought 2 Cheniere Corpus Christi Holdings 5.875% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 3/31/25 at a Total Cost of 99.352:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)
This subsidiary owns a natural gas liquefaction and export facility in Corpus Christi, Texas. The liquefaction facilities consist "of three operational Trains for a total production capacity of approximately 15 mtpa of LNG, three LNG storage tanks with aggregate capacity of approximately 10 Bcfe and two marine berths that can each accommodate vessels with nominal capacity of up to 266,000 cubic meters. Additionally, we are constructing an expansion of the Corpus Christi LNG Terminal (the “Corpus Christi Stage 3 Project”) for up to seven midscale Trains with an expected total production capacity of over 10 mtpa of LNG. In June 2022, our board of directors (our “Board”) made a positive FID with respect to the Corpus Christi Stage 3 Project and issued a full notice to proceed with construction to Bechtel Energy Inc. (“Bechtel”) effective June 16, 2022. We also own and operate through CCP a 21.5-mile natural gas supply pipeline that interconnects the Corpus Christi LNG Terminal with several interstate and intrastate natural gas pipelines (the “Corpus Christi Pipeline” and together with the Corpus Christi LNG Terminal and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 Project". 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/23 at page 27 (as of 6/30/23, the total debt of this subsidiary was $6.356B, down from $7.254B as of 12/31/22, see page 16)
LNG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
LNG SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/23
Collateral:
New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 6.359%
Current Yield at Total Cost = 5.91%
B. Bought 1 Atlantic City Electric 3.375% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/24 at a Total Cost of 97.903:
%203.375%25%209:1:24%20.png)
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Exelon Corp. (EXC)
EXC 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/23 (Atlantic City Electric second quarter financial results can be found at pages 45-49)
New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Prospectus First Mortgage on substantially all assets
YTM at Total Cost: 5.935%
Current Yield at TC = 3.447%
When I placed this trade, the 1 year treasury bill was trading at 5.43%.
5. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in NOBL - Sold 2 at $87.73:
Quote: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF Overview
Sponsor's website: ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)
Number of Stocks: 67
Expense Ratio: .35%
This ETF seeks to track the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. That index includes only stocks that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.
Some Holdings as of 10/23/23:
Profit Snapshot: $61.65
Last Discussed: Item # 3.I. Restarted NOBL (4/11/2020 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/23 at $.521068 per share
Last 4 Dividends: $1.94 per share, rounded up.
In 2019, the fund paid out $1.43 per share in dividends.
Yield at $87.73 Using $1.94 annual rate: 2.21%
NOBL Page at Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
NOBL Performance- Morningstar (YTD total return through 10/23/23 was -4.08%) Dividend paying stocks have generally had a tough year due in significant part to the competition provided by credit risk free investments from treasury bills and FDIC insured CDs.
Average cost per share remaining position: $56.09
B. Eliminated UNB - Sold 20+ at $25:
Quote: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
The market capitalization at $25 is about $114.3M.
Profit Snapshot: +$97.66
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added 5 UNB at $22; 5 at $21.82 in Fidelity Account and Item # 3.G. Eliminated UNB Duplicate Positions (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $35.1)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share, last raised from $.35 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment.
UNB Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 10/26/23
Current Position: None
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): SEC Filed Press Release This small bank holding company does not provide much information in its earnings press release. More details can be found in the 10-Q which is filed later. The last filed 10-Q was for the Q/E 6/30/23 (see page 31 of 10-Q for performance measures).
Comparisons are to the 2022 third quarter:
Net Income: $2.5M, down from $3.8M
E.P.S. = $.56, down from $.84
E.P.S. was reported at $.60 in the 2023 second quarter.
Nine Month E.P.S.: $1.82, down from $2.04.
"Net interest income was $9.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to $10.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2022, a decrease of $1.3 million, or 12.4%. . . . Interest expense increased $4.7 million to $5.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 due to customers seeking higher returns on their savings and utilization of wholesale funds which often are at higher rates."
UNB Realized Gains to Date: $429.92
Largest Gain: Item #2 C. Sold 50 UNB at $24.56 (1/25/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $238.61)
6. CD Purchase - FDIC Insured (Schwab Account): I view CD purchases in this account as an alternative to keeping funds in the Schwab settlement account that pays .45%. I am also starting to add more 2025 maturities.
A. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 5.5% CDs Maturing on 4/30/25:
Interest Paid Monthly.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
