Economy:
Contrary to what some economists claim, the U.S. economic numbers reported so far in 2022 do not support a claim that a recession now exists or will come into being soon.
However, a recession starting later this year is made more likely by food and energy inflation which reduces the ability to purchase other consumer goods.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘storm clouds’ ahead for U.S. economy
As inflation bites, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too
U.S. households are spending an extra $327 a month due to inflation
For the one year period ending in March 2022, CPI rose 8.5% with core CPI increasing by 6.5%:
Consumer Price Index Summary
Earlier this week, Big Brother Putin called Russia's invasion of Ukraine "noble". According to Putin, Russia is just "helping and saving people". He also represented that the "special military operation" was going to plan Putin vows to continue invasion until 'noble' aims met - BBC News; Putin defends war in Ukraine as 'noble' - YouTube
The world is being reminded once again what pure and absolute evil looks like.
No one familiar with Russian history, particularly under Stalin and its current authoritarian leader, is surprised by what that nation has done, and will continue to do, in Ukraine.
The 3 Baltic nations, Georgia and Moldova may be next on Putin's list for conquest. While the Baltic states are NATO members, they would be impossible to defend when Russia launches an invasion to "rescue" the Russian speakers in those countries. Russia has already created a "separatist" region in Moldova. Moldova Marks 30 Years Since War with Russia-Backed Transnistria Rebels | Balkan Insight; Transnistria - Wikipedia
Putin's bullying backfires as Finland and Sweden edge closer to joining NATO | CNN; Russia threatens to move nukes to Baltic region if Finland, Sweden join NATO, republished by MSN.com from Russia threatens Baltic Sea nuclear deployments if Finland, Sweden join NATO - The Washington Post
Senate votes to strip Russia of 'most favored nation' trade status over Ukraine war The vote was 100 to 0.
Since I see no reasonable hope that Russia will change course in Ukraine, and will likely commit substantially more heinous war crimes and crimes against humanity, normal trade relations between Russia and the U.S. will not likely be restored for a long time and possibly never.
As in the past, Russia is intentionally murdering civilians that are trying to flee its killing fields or to shelter in place. Russia's bombs, artillery shells, and missiles make no distinction between Russian and Ukrainian speaking civilians or homes and businesses owned by them.
OSCE report says Russia committed 'war crimes' in attacks on Mariupol, Ukraine - The Washington Post
One of the more recent horrific examples of Russia's war crimes and crimes against humanity occurred last week when a Russian missile attack hit the Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine. Aftermath shows devastation after missile strikes train station - YouTube Russia used a ballistic missile containing cluster munitions to kill as many civilians as possible, mostly women and children. The civilians were trying to escape Russia's efforts to murder them in their homes.
A Washington Post reporter arrived at the scene within 15 minutes after this Russian war crime and crime against humanity. Russia Bombs Fleeing Families at Kramatorsk Train Station
The routine evil acts committed by Russia are magnified by its failure to take any responsibility for its actions which is invariably the case for that nation, its knowingly false claims that the evidence of its war crimes is faked, and/or its shameless attempts to blame Ukraine for Russia's atrocities.
Earlier this week, Putin claimed that the overwhelming evidence of Russia's war crimes war was faked. Bucha Mayor Says 403 Bodies Have Been Found as Putin Calls Killings 'Fake'
Since Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity are routine in Ukraine, they are being routinely captured on video.
The videos originate from cell phones, satellites, security cameras and drones.
There will also be troves of witness testimony that would support convictions for war crimes and crimes against humanity, but there will likely be no trials unless Russia turns over the culprits, starting with Putin, which will never happen. It is far more likely that Russia's war criminals will receive medals.
A security camera caught a 52 year old Ukrainian woman riding a bicycle. As she rounded a corner, a Russian tank, located well over 100 yards from her, promptly opened fire, murdering her instantly and then leaving the body on the street for a satellite to image when Russia controlled the town. Heartbreaking story behind one of the saddest images of the war | Daily Mail Online
Russians razing towns like Izyum to clear path for military advances - The Washington Post The article simply describes more Russian crimes against humanity, genocide, and war crimes that are routine everyday practices for the Russian military and an integral part of its strategy in Ukraine. The Russians engaged in mass looting and forced deportation to "filtration" camps. "Indiscriminate shelling destroyed residential buildings, factories and schools, and heavily damaged both of the city’s newly refurbished hospitals, both of which were forced to close." Satellite images showed that over 80% of the civilian structures were destroyed by Russia. A Russian representative told the Mayor that Russia would destroy the city unless it surrendered and acknowledged that it was no longer part of Ukraine.
‘Evil Came’: The Toll of Russia’s Occupation in Kyiv’s Suburbs - The New York Times ("The conversations were intercepted from Russian military radio and include one Russian telling another that first you interrogate people and then you kill them.")
An estimated 45,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly deported to "filtration" camps. Russia deportation: After weeks under Putin's bombs, these Ukrainians were given only one way out | CNN I doubt that many will survive.
Shocking intercepted audio reveals talk between Russian soldiers - YouTube
As previously discussed, Russia is leaving its dead soldiers to rot where they died. Russia's fallen soldiers left behind as death toll mounts, families grieve - The Washington Post
Grandmother goes on epic Putin rant after town defeats Russian troops - YouTube
Nine ways Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine, republished by MSN.com from Nine ways Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine - The Washington Post The Russian military has only proven an expertise in murdering unarmed civilians and destroying undefended civilian structures, including hospitals, schools, train stations, homes, and apartment buildings.
McFaul: The Battle Of Kyiv Will Go Down In History As One Of Great Defeats Of Russian Army - YouTube
Former U.K. prime minister has a plan to prosecute Putin - YouTube
In Bucha, a massive search for bodies left by Russian occupiers - The Washington Post
What Putin's new commander reveals about his strategy - YouTube Russia's new commander has been accused of war crimes committed by the Russian military in Syria and Grozny. One problem with Russia's routine commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine is that it motivates Ukrainians to fight harder. Perhaps the new Russian commander will be more efficient in killing civilians that will in turn lead to more Russian soldier deaths as the Ukrainians willingness to fight longer and harder is strengthened.
In Russian crackdown on war dissent, students turn in teachers who express opposition - The Washington Post Grounds for a teacher's dismissal could simply be a statement that Ukraine is an independent country. Russia's Thought Police are back in full force. Thought Police - Wikipedia
Telling the truth in Russia is a major crime. Vladimir Kara-Murza arrested in Moscow after CNN interview criticizing Putin - The Washington Post He was also arrested for resisting arrest after he asked for identification from the 5 arresting officers.
Artist detained in Russia amid clampdown on anti-war feminists
Russia Uses Banned Antipersonnel Landmines | Human Rights Watch
'Just a mess': CNN goes inside abandoned Russian foxholes - YouTube
They tried to take a boat to safety. Then Russian rockets came raining down | CNN
Biden calls atrocities in Ukraine a 'genocide' for the first time | CNN Politics Biden says Russia is committing 'genocide' in Ukraine (embedded is a video of Bucha residents describing Russian atrocities that they witnessed). I have no doubt whatsoever that Russia is committing widespread genocide in Ukraine.
Russian propaganda aired on Putin TV is filled with genocidal speech aimed at Ukrainians who do not want Putin as their leader. The quotes contained in this article are just chilling. Russia's menacing rhetoric on Ukraine ratchets up - The Washington Post
Garry Kasparov correctly noted in an interview last Tuesday aired on CNN that the Nazis were in Russia, not in Ukraine. {see also, Stand with Ukraine in the Fight against Evil | Garry Kasparov | TED - YouTube (4/12/2022); Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) / Twitter}. I do not believe that the Russia will ever denazify, having gone way too far gone down that rabbit hole.
Putin has successfully created a similar kind of fascist and authoritarians nationalism in Russia that existed in Hitler's Germany. A super majority of Russians do not see it that way, but it is nonetheless true.
Russia's economy is beginning to crack as economists forecast sharp contractions A 15% contraction in Russia's economy this year is a reasonable forecast. Inflation will probably go over 20%. Putin mistakenly believes that Russia's economic relations with most western countries will return to normal when and if Russia incorporates all or most of Ukraine into Russia or installs a puppet government in Kiev.
It will take time for several European nations to replace all or almost all of their energy purchases from Russia, but that will gradually happen over the next 10 years as a matter of national security. Germany will probably drag its feet more than the other European nations.
It would be foolish for Europe to depend much longer on Russia for energy requirements. All economic ties with that country need to be severed as soon as possible.
Russia and Ukraine will both suffer severely by the irrational actions of Russia's dictator. And, that suffering will become more acute soon since Putin is now a cornered, rabid animal.
Russian navy evacuates flagship Moskva in Black Sea. Ukraine claims it was hit by a missile, detonating ammunition aboard-CNN Russia will not acknowledge that any of its sailors died or that its flagship was hit by a missile, claiming that the ship had to be abandoned due to a fire.
One way that China supports Russia is to spread the same false information about what is happening, which includes blaming NATO for Russia's war crimes and crimes against humanity. China is Russia’s most powerful weapon for information warfare, republished at MSN.Com from China is Russia’s proxy in the country’s disinformation wars over Ukraine - The Washington Post.
China is a major violator of human rights and consequently voted against expelling Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council.
UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council-UN News;
More Evidence of China’s Horrific Abuses in Xinjiang | Human Rights Watch; Uyghur genocide - Wikipedia
Trump says Secret Service blocked him from joining Jan. 6 march to the Capitol - POLITICO
Trump and His Cronies Are Still Actively Trying to Overturn the 2020 Election | Vanity Fair (4/12/22)
Trump Rally-Goers Say Space Force Can Prove 2020 Election Fraud
There is an inherent tendency to discount or reject facts that undermine a person's beliefs. The amount and reliability of the evidence does not change that snap rejection of reliable information.
And, when the intended targets for demonstrably false narratives and information are both stupid and gullible, the job of the authoritarian demagogue is made that much easier in convincing them to reject the truth and to accept the reality creations designed to manipulate them.
Putin and Trump are what George Orwell had in mind when writing 1984.
VIDEO: Trump Says He's the 'Most Honest' Human God Ever Created (4/10/22); Trump’s false or misleading claims total 30,573 over 4 years - The Washington Post
81% of Republicans Say Trump is Honest |
++
1. Corporate Bonds:
The bonds issued by Goldman Sachs and Bank of Montreal were bought at their $1K par values and are original issuances available to Fidelity customers under its corporate notes program.
The other $1K par value bonds were bought in the secondary market below their par values.
I am gradually building a bond ladder as interest rates rise. I will be discussing 4 to 8 trades per blog. The blog discussions will already extend through May for bonds that had been bought in March and April to date.
Yield to Maturity vs. Coupon Rate: What's the Difference?
A. Added to Entergy Mississippi 2.85% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 6/1/28-Bought 2 at a Total Cost of 97.942:
I now own 4 bonds. I have 5 Entergy Mississippi 3.15% first mortgage bonds maturing on 7/1/23. The first mortgage lien is attached to "substantially all property" owned by this electric utility.
Bought at 97.842
Total Cost at 97.942 (with $1 per bond commission)
Accrued Interest Paid to the Seller: $17.42
FINRA Page (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Current Yield at TC = 2.91%
YTM at TC = 3.219% (YTM includes profit when the bond is redeemed at par value)
Make Whole Provision: A make whole provision compensates the owner for the interest rate risk associated with an issuer early redemption when treasury yields are low enough to trigger a premium to par payment obligation. The calculation involves taking the principal amount plus all remaining interest payments and then discounting those amounts by the comparable treasury yield plus in this case .2%.
Generally speaking, when the issuer exercises an optional redemption right prior to maturity and the make whole payment provision may come into play, a premium payment to par value connected to an optional redemption is more likely to occur when the comparable treasury rate is very low since that slows the discounting to present value calculation.
The issuer may redeem at par value after 3/1/28. Prior to 3/1/28, any optional redemption is subject to the make whole provision.
In Item # 3.B. below, I discuss adding to my position in a 4.9% Entergy Mississippi exchange traded first mortgage bond. Par value is $25. Unlike the $1K par value bond discussed above, the issuer can redeem now at par value.
Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond (EMP)
B. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.25% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 4/1/28 at a Total Cost of 99.227:
Finra page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Current Yield at TC = 3.28%, rounded up.
YTM at TC = 3.39%, rounded down
Accrued Interest Paid to Seller: $15.62
I received shortly after my purchase the entire 6 month interest payment of $16.25:
C. Bought 2 Enbridge 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.562:
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Enbridge (ENB) SEC Filed Press Release
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
Current Yield: 2.54%, rounded up
YTM at TC = 3.04%, rounded up
I own the ENB common and reset equity preferred shares as well as an ENB exchange traded baby bond.
My most recent discussion of ENB can be found here: Item # 3.F.Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $42.4 (3/17/22 Post)
D. Bought 2 Enbridge 2.15% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/16/24:
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Bought at $98.68
Total Cost at $98.78
Current Yield at TC = 2.1512%
YTM at TC = 2.822%
On 3/29/22, the 2 year treasury note closed at a 2.35% yield with the 1 year at 1.67%.
E. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 2.4% SU Bond Maturing on 4/28/23 at Par Value:
Issuer: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+
F. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 2.7% SU Bond Maturing on 9/29/23 at Par Value:
See Item # 1.D. above.
G. Bought 1 Bank of Montreal 3% SU Maturing on 4/12/24:
Issuer: Bank of Montreal (BMO)
Credit Ratings: A2 by Moody's
I also own the common stock.
2. Small Ball- Eliminations of Utility Stocks:
A. Eliminated AEP- Sold 3 at $95.5:
Quote: American Electric Power Co.
AEP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth
Profit Snapshot: +$53.4
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.O. Bought 1 AEP at $75.66 (2/27/21 Post); Item # 1.M. Added to AEP-Bought 1 at $77.58 (2/6/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.78, last raised from $.74 effective for the 2021 4th Q. payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/21/21): American Electric Power (AEP) SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP net income of $538.9M or $1.07 per share;
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.98 with the consensus at $.934 per Fidelity;
Revenues at $4.1B, up from $3.6B in the 2020 4th quarter;
Raised 2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance to $4.87 to $5.07 per share;
Revenues for 2021 at $16.8B
I still own 10 AEP 2.95% SU bonds that mature on 12/15/22 and will hold those bonds until redeemed by the issuer:
B. Eliminated DUK-Sold 3 at $107.19; 2 at $107.35; 12 at $114.96:
DUK Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
Dividends (paid quarterly, currently at $.985 per share with the last ex dividend date on 2/17/22)
Investment categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added 1 DUK at $81.69; 1 at $79.25 (9/19/20 Post); Item # 1.H. Added 1 DUK at $65.7 (5/16/20 Post)
Profit Snapshots: +$573
12 Shares +$434.33 |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Duke Energy (DUK) SEC Filed Press Release
Recent Sell Discussions since 2020: Item # 2.H. Sold 2 DUK at $107.4; 1 at $106.18 (9/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.11); Item # 2.D. Pared DUK-Sold 2 at 101.11; 1 at $104 (5/23/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.36); Item # 1.I. Pared DUK-Sold 1.453 at $95.46; 1 at $97.14; 1.471 at $100.71(4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.39); Item # 2.M.-Sold 4 DUK at $95.50 (11/13/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.39); Item # 1.J. Pared DUK-Sold 2 at $91.81 (7/3/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.82); Item # 1.C. Sold 2 DUK at $97.05 (2/16/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.29)
Current position: None.
The largest position ever taken was a 400 share purchase in 1978.
The largest realized gain since 2008 occurred in 2011:
187+ shares +$636.28 |
C. Eliminated EVRG- Sold 2 at $64.62; 8 at $64.50; 5 at $70.33:
Quote: Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
EVRG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Overview | Evergy, Inc.
Profit Snapshots: +$262.91
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1. F. Added to EVRG-Bought 1 at $49.9; 1 at $49.7; 1 at $49.16; 1 at $48.9 (10/17/20 Post); Item # 1.C. (9/19/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.572 per share
EVRG Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Evergy (EVRG) SEC Filed Press Release
4th Q. non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.16 in line with consensus;
2021 GAAP E.P.S reported at $3.83, up from $2,72 in 2020;
2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.54, up from $3.1 in 2020;
Reaffirmed 2022 E.P.S. guidance of $3.43 to $3.63; declared regular quarterly dividend of $.5725 per share
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.N. Sold 3 EVRG at $59.37 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.47)
I have recently bought a 2.45% EVRG SU maturing on 9/15/24 bond in both a RI and a taxable account. Bond Detail I will discuss the taxable account purchase in a later post.
D. Eliminated OGE- Sold 2 at $38.29; 5 at $38.87; and 8 at $38.52:
Quote: OGE Energy Corp
"OGE Energy Corp. ("OGE Energy") is the parent company of Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company ("OG&E"), a regulated electric utility with approximately 876,000 customers in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In addition, prior to December 2, 2021, OGE Energy held a 25.5 percent limited partner interest and a 50 percent general partner interest in Enable Midstream Partners, LP."
Corporate Profile | OGE Energy Corp.
OGE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Material Recent Development: OGE Energy Corp. announces the successful close of the merger between Energy Transfer and Enable Midstream Partners {"all of the 110,982,805 common units of Enable owned by OGE Energy were exchanged for 95,389,720 common units of Energy Transfer."; Energy Transfer LP (ET) }
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 OGE at $33.73 (10/22/21 Post)
Last Round-Trip Discussion: Item # 3.E. Eliminated OGE-Sold 15 at $34.62 (6/4/21 Post)-Item # 1.I. Started OGE-Bought 5 at $32.15; 1 at $31.63; 4 at $31.31; 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.31 (1/30/21 Post)
Dividend History | OGE Energy Corp.: Quarterly at $.41 per share with the last ex dividend on 4/8/22.
Profit Snapshots: +$75.3
Quote: Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.10 per share with the last ex dividend on 2/10/22
Profit Snapshots: +$131.55
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.M. Bought 1 ETR at $88.97; 1 at $87.25 (3/6/21 Post); Item # 1.B. Started ETR as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $92.55 (2/6/21 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Entergy (ETR) SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.76, with the consensus at $.699 per Fidelity;
GAAP E.P.S. at $1.59;
For 2021, ETR reported GAAP earnings of $1.118B or $5.54 per share and non-GAAP income of $1.205B or $6.02 per share;
2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance of $6.15 to $6.45
Current Position: None
I have been buying first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy wholly owned subsidiaries.
3. Other Small Ball:
A. Added to GRX - Bought 10 at $12.22-Schwab Taxable:
History this Account:
Quote: Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust Overview
Sponsor's Website: GAMCO
Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/22:
Leveraged: Yes through preferred stock at close to 24%. Gabelli Healthcare & WellnessRx Trust Announces the Issuance of $40 Million of 4.00% Series C Cumulative Preferred Shares
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Bought 10 GRX at $12.27; 10 at $12.14 -Fidelity Taxable Account (2/27/21 Post)
Average cost per share in this account: $12.54 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 (regular only) There was an additional distribution of $.36 per share that went ex dividend in December 2021, referenced in the trading snapshot above as a special distribution which amounted to $3.6 for the 10 shares then owned in this account.
Yield at AC = 4.78%, rounded down.
Last Ex Dividend: 3/16/22
Data as of 3/11/22 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.84
Closing Market Price: $12.10
Discount: -12.57%
Sourced: GRX- CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Currently rated 3 stars by Morningstar
B. Added to EMP in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $24.79:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bonds Overview
Investment Category: Income Generation with First Mortgage Bonds, Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
Last Buy Discussions: Item #1.O. Bought 10 EMP at $25.15-Vanguard Taxable Accounturd (10/15/21 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 10 EMP at $23.76, 5 at $21.07; 10 at $20.39 (4/25/20 Post)
History This Account:
This is an average up that raised my AC per share slightly to $22.08 (25 shares).
Yield at $22.08 AC: 5.55%, rounded up.
Last Quarterly Ex Interest Date: 3/30/22
Security: First Mortgage Lien
Credit Ratings: A/A2
Maturity: 10/1/66 unless called early at issuer's option
Asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer
Par Value: $25
Callable now at issuer's option
Interest payments are made quarterly. The bonds trades flat.
Prior Round-Trip Trades:
Item # 5.A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84 (6/27/20 Post);
Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $207.92)-Item # 1.B. Bought 70 EMP at $21.76 (1/2/19 Post);
Items 2.A and B. Sold 50 EMP at $24.97 and 30 at $24.96 (9/21/17 Post)(profit snapshots $167.52)
C. Added 5 EMP in Vanguard Taxable at $24.65:
See Item #3.B. Above.
D. Bought 10 ILPT at $21.95; 5 at $20.67; 5 at $20.35:
ILPT is characterized as an Industrial REIT.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
ILPT was spun out of the Select Income Trust REIT (SIR) as a condition for its merger with Government Investors Trust which is now known as Office Properties Income Trust (OPI). Select Income REIT Announces the Completion of the Distribution of 45 Million Common Shares of Industrial Logistics Properties Trust; Government Properties Income Trust Announces the Completion of its Merger with Select Income REIT (12/31/18)
The only shareholder friendly action IMO made by Government Properties external manager was separating the industrial and office properties into separate REITs. SIR was managed by the same external management company that now manages Office Properties and ILPT. I have been critical of Office Properties Trust for more than a decade, as noted when I recently eliminated a small ball position in its stock. Item # 2.G. Eliminated OPI - Sold 10 at $24.47 (1/7/22 Post)- Item # 2.D. Restarted OPI-Bought 5 at $20.25; 2 at $18.95; 3 at $17.9 (11/13/20 Post) Ten shares is about my limit on owning the common stock due to that unfavorable opinion about the external managers.
2021 Annual Report (As of 12/31/21, ILPT's portfolio "was comprised of 288 wholly owned properties that were approximately 99.2% leased to 259 tenants with a weighted average (by annualized rental revenues) remaining lease term of approximately 9.4 years. The 288 properties consisted of 226 buildings, leasable land parcels and easements containing approximately 16.7 million rentable square feet. . . that were primarily industrial lands located on the island of Oahu, HI, or our Hawaii Properties, and 62 properties containing approximately 17.3 million rentable square feet that were industrial and logistics properties located in 30 other states"
Properties as of 12/31/2021:
99.2% Leased |
Major Tenants as of 12/31/21:
ILPT recently completed the acquisition of Monmouth Industrial REIT that added "126 new, Class A, single tenant, net leased, e-commerce focused industrial properties containing over 26 million square feet with a weighted average remaining lease term of approximately eight years." As required by the merger agreement, Monmouth had to call its outstanding preferred stock at par value, and I recently received the proceeds from that redemption. Item # 1 MNRPRC Issuer Redemption at the $25 Par Value (3/3/22 Post)(80 shares-profit snapshot = $301.52).
My primary criticism of the external managers is that the acquisitions do not IMO add value for the shareholders given the price paid, but do create value for the external management company through increases in compensation. The end result is reflected in ILPT's chart compared to an internally managed industrial REIT like STAG which I also own:
2 year comparison chart as of 4/8/22:
STAG (blue line) vs ILPT |
Average cost per share: $21.23 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share
Yield at AC: 6.22%, rounded up.
The ILPT dividend yield is also much higher than STAG which reflects the lower opinion that the Stock Jocks have of ILPT.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/21/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Normalized FFO at $.49 per share
SEC Filing-Supplemental Information
E. Pared SJR - Sold 4 at $30.72:
Quote: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
Profit Snapshot: +$53.38
Remaining Position AC at $15.72 per share (30 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 3/18/22 after pare |
This company is in the process of being acquired by Rogers Communications for C$40.5 in cash. SEC Filed Press Release; 1 CAD to USD - Canadian Dollars to US Dollars Exchange Rate
I have been paring my position just in case the merger is rejected by the regulatory authority. The last pare resulted in a $355.93 profit Item # 2.H. Pared SJR in Fidelity Account -Sold All Shares with a cost basis of $18 or higher (11/26/21 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.E. Added to SJR-Bought 2 at $18; 1 at $17.95; 1 at $16.61; 1 at $16.2 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 3.D. Added 5 SJR at $16.88; 5 at $16.4; 5 at $15.8; 1 at $12.48 (4/11/20 Post)
SJR has been paying its regular monthly dividend and will continue to do so until the merger is completed.
SJR Realized Gains to Date: $1,600.83
F. Added to FSMEX- Bought $50 at $72.33:
Quote: Fidelity Select Medical Technology and Devices Portfolio Overview
Sponsor's Website: Fidelity ® Select Medical Technology and Devices Portfolio
Expense Ratio = .7%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. (2/10/22 Post)
Fidelity® Select Medical Tech and Devices (FSMEX)-Morningstar-currently rated 5 stars.
I only nibble at individual stocks in this sector. Based on the last FSMEX shareholder report, I own only 1 stock of this fund's top 25 holdings and that is HOLX which was weighted at #22 in this fund.
Ordinary dividends have not been paid since 2017 and have been barely nominal when paid. There have been capital gain distributions:
G. Added to WIW-Bought 10 at $11.84; 10 at $11.6:
Sponsor's website: Western Asset Inflation-Linked Opportunities & Income Fund - WIW
Last Discussed: Item # 1. Bought 100 WIW at $12.30 (3/17/22 Post) I have nothing substantive to add to that recent discussion.
Data Date of 3/29/22 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share = $13.18
Closing net asset value per share = $11.78
Discount: -10.62%
Data Date of 4/11/22 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $12.87
Closing Market Price: $11.52
Discount: -10.49%
Sourced: WIW-CEF Connect
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Next Ex Dividend: 4/21/22
Current Position: 110 shares
Purchase Restriction: 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase having to be at the lowest price in the chain.
When I read articles discussing WIW written by financial journalists, the focus is solely on the inflation protection afforded by TIPs. The principal amount is increased every six months by the CPI rate. What is lost is whether the coupon yield at the then current price is appropriate under the circumstances. The yields at current prices are negative. As interest rates move up, the negative yields become less so and may eventually return back into positive territory. For vintage TIPs, that adjustment in current yield is reflected in a price decline.
H. Added 2 EAI at $24.64-Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Last Discussed: Item #1.G. Added 10 EAI at $24.87-Schwab Taxable Account (3/3/22 Post)
Investment Category: Income Generation with a First Mortgage Baby Bond, part of the Exchange Traded Bond category.
First Mortgage Bond on substantially all assets
Par Value: $25
Optional Redemption Date: or or after 9/1/21
Maturity Date: 9/1/2066 unless redeemed earlier at issuer's option
Interest Rate Risk: Asymmetric in favor of issuer, created by a lack of a make whole provision.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Next Ex Interest Date: 5/27/22
The bond is currently callable at its $25 par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Item # 2.B. Bought 50 EAI at $23.85- ROTH IRA account (6/20/2017)
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post)(profit snapshot =$50.21)-Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post), Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post)
Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73-Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)-(profit Snapshot= $17.36)-Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.12 (5/24/18 Post)
Goal: Harvest interest payments and any profit on the shares.
I also own a $1K par value Entergy Arkansas First Mortgage bond that has a make whole provision. Item # 1.E. Bought 2 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 6/1/23 (5/17/17 Post); Bond Detail
I. CFG Completes Acquisition of ISBC:
Citizens Financial Group Completes Acquisition of Investors Bancorp – Citizens Bank
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Announces Agreement to Acquire Investors Bancorp, Inc. ("Investors shareholders will receive 0.297 of a share of CFG common stock and
Citizens Financial Group Inc. Stock Quote
I owned 30 shares of ISBC that had a cost basis of $7.48 per share. Item # 2.E. Sold All ISBC Fractional Shares purchased with dividends at $14.64 (8/9/21 Post) Item # 1.G. Bought 5 ISBC at $7.21; 5 at $7.09; 5 at $6.9 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 1.D. Started ISBC-Bought 10 at $7.97; 4 at $7.7 (9/5/20 Post)
I received $1.46 in cash plus 8 shares of CFG for those 30 shares.
Profit Snapshot: $43.8. The $1.46 per ISBC share paid in cash was treated as a sale. The share exchange was not taxable.
I now own 10 shares of CFG with a cost basis of $25.33.
Snapshot as of close on 4/8/22 |
There was a cash payment for a .91 fractional CFG share that I was owed as part of the merger:
That transaction was treated as a sale of a CFG fractional share:
.91 Share +$14.17 |
Generally, in a share exchange merger, a fractional share received in the exchange is not credited but liquidated and paid out in cash.
J. Pared FENY Again- Sold 4.918 Shares at $21.68:
Quote: Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF
Sponsor's website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Expense Ratio = .08%
Profit Snapshot: +$27.41 (4/8/22 sale only).
I sold the highest cost fractional share purchased with a dividend and 4 of the highest cost shares purchased in the market.Average Cost per share after pare: $14.49 (90+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 4/8/22 after pare |
The average cost was reduced from 14.57.
Total of Last 4 Quarterly dividends per share = $.585
Yield at annual rate of $.585 and $14.49 TC = 4.04%, rounded up.
I discussed this ETF in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.I. Pared FENY- Sold 5 at $20.95 (4/7/22 Post)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
As I mentioned in this blog, I am building a bond ladder slowly since it is certainly possible that interest rates will continue to rise. This approach will cause me to add 1 or 2 bonds to an existing position as the price falls.
ReplyDeleteEarlier today, I bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 2.85% First Mortgage bond that I discussed in Item # 1.A. The previous purchase was made at 97.842 on 3/17/22. Today's purchase was at 94.685 (TC at 94.785)
When making any bond purchase, I will consider taking a profit down the road, but can hold until the bond is redeemed. In other words, I will not be forced into selling a loss to meet expenses.
+++
Reading through Garry Kasparov's twitter comments, I noted his observation that the 3 pro-Putin presidential candidates in France-his characterization-received 52% of the vote. I have never heard of two of the candidates. I am familiar with Marine Le Pen who made yesterday what I would call Russia and Putin friendly remarks yesterday:
"French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen called Wednesday for reconciliation between NATO and Russia, and reiterated a pledge to pull French personnel out of NATO’s integrated command if she is elected president on April 24."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/french-presidential-candidate-calls-for-nato-to-reconcile-with-russia/ar-AAWdIci?li=BBnb7Kz
That's a lot of trades... Bonds becoming viable.
ReplyDeleteI've added 5k to my tax extension so i can file form 8888 and get ibond with the return. Over 8% now.
Wasn't easy. Free fillable forms insisted i provide spouse info even though I'm applying single. I had to email help@, got an repeat auto explaination and finally got them to fix it.
I read a big bank's article that the boat is so overloaded to the recession side that they are adding substantially to the market. An interesting point. Almost always, after an inversion there's been a big rally before the crash and recession.
Have any more inversions happened?
I'm taking my dad home for the first time in 6 months. He's having trouble dealing with it. It was supposed to be wrapped with Passover but my niece got covid (recovering fine) and we canceled all holiday family get together plans. So family support is reduced. Lifting mask mandates... A good idea?? I wasn't convinced we were ready.
What's it going to take to genuinely help Ukraine win? We'll keep facing Russian aggression and violations until the rest of us stop it, via ukraine of with the next sequence of countries invaded.
Believing non truths is a big part of the authoritarians tool kit. Putin did it by limiting news access. But Trump was able by merely sewing early doubt in media and dependence on him as *the* source of truth. Stunning that it worked.
Land: The IBond resets its coupon on 5/1/22. For bonds purchased for the six months ending in April 2022, the coupon was 7.12% for that period. The inflation component reset for the six month period starting 5/1/22 will be higher but I have not done the calculation. The WSJ claimed in a 4/12/22 article that the new annual rate will be 9.6%.
ReplyDeleteIf rates continue rising, I could easily end up with 200+ bond purchases made in 1 and 2 bond lots. I would not characterize those purchases as viable from a return on my perspective, particularly given the current and reasonably anticipated inflation rates over the next five years. Those are more of a return of my money investments. So far in March and April, I have not yet replaced the over $60K in proceeds expected from bond redemptions and maturities this year, which has gone up $15K just recently after I received notice of an early municipal bond redemption.
"Worried about rising inflation? With nearly risk free I bonds soon to pay 9.62%, here’s what you need to know"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/fretting-about-rising-inflation-i-bonds-may-soon-pay-9point62percent.html
I first discussed the Ibonds back in 2016.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4886289-buying-ibonds-through-treasury-direct
This is mostly an out-of-sight, out-of-mind investment for me. I only go to my Treasury Direct account to make purchases and to collect my annual 1099 from the Treasury. So I forget how much that I own. It is slightly relevant to me that I own some that were purchased over 5 years ago, so I at least have the option, which will probably never be exercised, to redeem those Ibonds without suffering a 3 month interest penalty.
As previously discussed, one advantage of the Ibond compared a TIP is that accrued interest is not taxable until the bond is redeemed or changes ownership.
Another advantage compared to recent TIP pricings is the Ibond purchase does not start with a negative yield whereas TIPs do. The 5 year TIP yield closed yesterday at -.59% yield.
Chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5
Even if a vintage 5 year TIP has a positive coupon, it would be priced sufficiently high that the positive coupon would turn negative.
In June 2007, as reflected in the preceding linked chart, the real yield on 5 year TIP was at 2.74% on 6/13/2007.
The 5 year TIP would be a better option over its term when the real yield is positive since the Ibond does not currently offer a fixed rate coupon, only an inflation adjusted coupon that resets every 6 months.
I would not buy a TIP in a taxable account due to tax considerations as previously discussed. I would consider buying a 5 year TIP in a retirement account when there is an enticing positive real yield + the inflation adjustment to the principal amount, rather than the negative real yield available now.
So far, 2022 has been a difficult year for investors to produce a real total return before taxes. I feel like a mouse on one of those wheels running hard and going nowhere.
ReplyDeleteI wrote down some ETF YTD total return numbers calculated by Morningstar:
S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) = -7.54%
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) = -14.76%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) = -10.99%
S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) = -7.94%
Internet ETF (FDN) = -23.03%
7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) -10.04%
Invmt Grade Corp Bd ETF (LQD) -13.07%
National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) -7.08%
Those numbers remind me some of the 1970s when problematic inflation caused significant negative real returns in bonds and stocks with energy stocks and gold providing upside.
YTD Total Return Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLE) = +47.32%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/xle/performance
I am close to breakeven YTD, which translates into a negative real total return before taxes and worse after taxes.
I had a hamster who changed the game. He'd climb the cage, climb the ceiling until he was positioned over the wheel. Then look, flip over and ride the wheel on the outside down like a rollercoaster.
ReplyDeleteI interpret the inability to crash as part of the last couple years of enthusiasm no matter what.
I wish I'd sold when i said i/it was feeling piggy.
Now I'm hesitant to sell until near last highs again. But selling comes to mind because this set of situations seems like it will end the steady beat up of the last 2013 to 2020 wall of worry climb. A lot of big banks are saying so, but i wonder if they are acting on those predictions.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
ReplyDelete$224.14 -$124.32 -35.66%
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2022 at 11:33 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nflx?mod=over_search
This is what happens when overly optimistic expectations about future growth are drowned by reality.
The streaming space is crowded, energy and food inflation is reducing consumer discretionary spending, and streaming services have been increasing their monthly fees. There is also a problem with subscribers sharing their passwords with non-household non-subscribers.
I do not own NFLX but do own a few shares of PARA, AMCX and WBD which are being hit in sympathy with PARA currently down 6.89%:
Paramount Global Cl B
$33.78 -$2.50 -6.89%
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2022 at 11:45 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/para?mod=over_search
I subscribe to several streaming services and view the one from Disney as providing the least value for the money:
Walt Disney Co.
$125.73 -6.17 -4.68%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/dis?mod=over_search
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/04/amkby-aqnca-colb-eai-emaca-gnl-ilpt.html