Economy:
January CPI rose more than expected.
CPI: 3.1%, down from 3.4% in 12 month period ending in December
Core CPI: 3.9%
Core CPI is proving to be sticking near 4%. The month-to-month increase was .4%, up from .3% in the prior two months.
The shelter expense "continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase."
"Owners equivalent rent", weighted at 26.679% in CPI, reportedly increased 6.2% over the 12 month period ending in January. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M01 Results That major category of CPI is a pretend "expense" that is not actually paid. The monthly rise was .6% up from .4% in December. w
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M01 Results
I discuss this report in a YT Video: January Inflation Report - YouTube
Start of a Valuation Reset Today in Stocks? - YouTube
Retail sales January 2024 Down .8% with the consensus at -.03%
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $22,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $11,000 in principal amount
I bought more than $11K in corporate bonds since my last post, but will postpone discussing some of them until my next post.
Outflow Individual Common Stocks: -$1,873.25
(consisting of $2,974.94 in proceeds minus $1,101.69 in purchases)
Stock ETFs and CEFs: -$686.39
Total Outflows Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$2,559.84
Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Funds: +$496.84
(consisting of $570.67 in realized gains minus $73.83 in realized losses in 2 positions)
Outflow U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks: -$173.26
(consisting of $291.76 in proceeds minus $118.5 in a purchase)
Inflow Exchange Traded Senior Bond: +$124.4
2024 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in posts): -$13,523.95
2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in posts) = -$27,091.82
+++
Trump and His Cult:
RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Biden winning re-election would be 'very, very' surprising, says nonpartisan forecaster Charlie Cook | Morningstar It is too early to make that assessment, but not too early to conclude that Biden is in trouble.
Trump Falsified Documents Case:
The trial had been scheduled to start on March 25, 2024 and the judge kept that date after a hearing today. Trump's first criminal trial set to begin March 25 as judge denies bid to dismiss "hush money" case - CBS News
Some call this criminal prosecution the hush money case and that description leaves a lot out as I discussed in this video. NY Criminal Trial Against Trump - YouTube
Mayorkas Impeachment:
House impeaches Alejandro Mayorkas, first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in almost 150 years Mayorkas was the first sitting cabinet minister to be impeached in U.S. history. The Republicans presented no evidence that Mayorkas had committed high crimes and misdemeanors, the constitutional standard for impeachment. "Democrats, former secretaries of homeland security, the country’s largest police union and a chorus of constitutional law experts — including conservatives — have denounced the impeachment as a blatant attempt to resolve a policy dispute with a constitutional punishment." Mayorkas Impeached by House Republicans Over Border Policies - The New York Times
With Steve Scalise returning from his cancer treatment, the republicans were able to pass the impeachment resolution by 1 vote. The republicans had to vote again before a Democrat won the special election held last Tuesday to fill the vacancy that resulted from George Santos (R) being removed from office. Takeaways from New York’s high-stakes special election The republicans would have lost by 1 vote if they had waited.
There is a zero percent chance of a conviction in the Senate. The Senate may simply vote to dismiss the impeachment rather than to hold a trial. I believe that the trial needs to be held which will require republican senators to vote on the articles of impeachment. More voters will become aware that the charges have no constitutional basis. I discussed my opinion on why 75+M Americans will vote for Trump next November here: Why will Millions Vote for Trump Again? - YouTube
Putin and Trump:
Trump is so desperate to support Putin he's making up a 'Sir' story - YouTube
While there is no proof that Putin had paid Trump or has kompromat on him, there is ample evidence that Trump makes statements and advocates positions that advance Putin's objectives. I discuss this observation in another video: Putin and Trump Part 2 - YouTube
The most recent was this statement made last weekend by Trump: "You didn't pay? You're delinquent? No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills." Trump says he'd encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who don't pay their bills-NPR; Trump Encourages Putin to Attack NATO Members - The Atlantic
'Treasonous': Former NATO supreme allied commander blasts Trump's NATO remarks - YouTube
Another Putin objective was implemented by Trump when he successfully caused his minions in the House to cut off all aid to Ukraine. This was done by conditioning approval of that aid on the Democrats accepting all of the Republican law changes on immigration, rather than a bipartisan approach. The desired impact of the Trump's actions and rhetoric was to end aid to Ukraine.
After Trump tanked the bipartisan compromise by ordering his minions to oppose it, the Senate did manage to pass with some republican support a standalone aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Speaker Johnson and Aid to Ukraine:
Speaker Johnson stated that he would not allow a vote on the measure in the House. Mike Johnson signals blockade of Senate national security bill It is possible to do an end around through a discharge petition that would require 218 votes. A few republicans would need to vote to discharge the Senate bill for a House vote. The measure would then pass once a vote was allowed to occur.
If Republicans really believed that immigration was an existential threat, then they would have taken now what was offered as part of the bipartisan deal.
The republicans have achieved their objectives so far: deny aid to Ukraine while doing nothing on immigration prior to the election.
++
Trump and NATO:
"In his 2000 book, “The America We Deserve,” Mr. Trump wrote that “pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually.” As president, he repeatedly threatened a United States withdrawal from the alliance." Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power - The New York Times (12/9/23)
‘US will be out of NATO’ in second Trump term, former senior adviser warns | CNN Politics
Esper Slams Trump's NATO Comments: Emboldens China and Russia Esper was Trump's Defense Secretary and made these comments about Donald: "Words matter, first of all. But secondly, yeah, I do, because I’ve been in those rooms with him where he’s expressed a disdain for Germany. He doesn’t understand the importance of the alliance and how it’s critical to our security as well. And wanted to pull troops out of Europe. So look, I take him, I take him at his word. And I think it’s realistic that he gets back in office. One of the first things he’ll do is cut off assistance to Ukraine if it isn’t already cut off, and then begin trying to withdraw troops and ultimately withdraw from NATO".
Anne Applebaum predicted in a December 2023 article that Trump would pull the U.S. out of NATO. Trump Will Abandon NATO - The Atlantic
I discussed what I view as Republican led efforts to weaken U.S. national security in this video: GOP Is Endangering National Security - YouTube
How serious is Trump about pulling out of NATO? Very | CNN One question raised in this article is how much does Trump actually know about NATO. Trump constantly and incorrectly refers to countries being delinquent in paying dues to NATO, or owing the U.S. for their defense. All of those comments demonstrate his profound ignorance about NATO. It would require him to spend a few minutes learning the basics which is a few minutes to long for Trump to spend learning any real information.
The NATO countries do pay into a common fund that supports the day-to-day operations. No NATO member is delinquent on those dues.
The NATO goal is for each member to spend 2% or more of their annual GDP on defense. If a member fails to spend that much, it is not violating a treaty obligation with the U.S. and does not owe the U.S. anything. And, the U.S. would spend about the same on defense even if it was not a NATO member.
For 2023, 11 members exceeded 2%. Poland had the highest number at 3.9% followed by the U.S. at 3.49%. The countries exceeding the 2% number were Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, the United Kingdom and Slovakia.
Some of the laggards include the following:
Bulgaria at 1.8%
Netherlands at 1.7%
Norway at 1.67%
Denmark at 1.65%
Germany 1.57% (Germany had the second highest dollar amount of defense spending)
Italy at 1.46%
Canada at 1.38%
Turkey at 1.31%
Spain at 1.26%
Belgium at 1.13%
It is a lot easier now to convince the eastern European countries to spend more after Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine and demonstrated a willingness to turn entire cities into rubble, including cities like Mariupol where a majority of the inhabitants are Russian speakers.
Putin has proven that he is willing to massacre Russian speakers in Ukraine, blow up their homes and places of employment and it would not be rational for anyone in eastern Europe, who are neither Russian speakers nor ethnic Russians, to believe than more restraint will be shown to them in a Russian invasion.
NATO Spending by Country 2023 All of the NATO members are meeting the goal of spending at least 20% on new equipment.
+++
Why Republican Politicians Do Whatever Trump Says - The Atlantic
Trump attacks Haley for absence of her husband, who is deployed Disgusting Don: “Where’s her husband? Oh, he’s away. … What happened to her husband? Where is he? He’s gone.” Haley's husband is deployed with the South Carolina National Guard in Africa.
Ex-Trump advisor gives stark warning: Donald Trump is unfit to be President again - YouTube
Trump and Taylor Swift:
1 in 3 Republicans believes baseless Taylor Swift election conspiracy theory, poll finds
Trump believes that he is responsible for Taylor Swift's success and that she would be disloyal to him by endorsing Biden:
Trump: "There's no way she could endorse Crooked Joe Biden, the worst and most corrupt President in the History of our Country, and be disloyal to the man who made her so much money." That comment is delusional.
Trump is referring to the Music Modernization Act that Trump signed in 2018 that was passed by unanimous votes in both the House and Senate and was years in the making. Drafting started in 2013. The Creation of the Music Modernization Act | U.S. Copyright Office Those involved with that legislation stated that Trump did nothing but sign the bill. Trump says Taylor Swift can't endorse Biden because it would be 'disloyal'- NPR Is it even possible for Donald to be more of a jerk than he displays on a daily basis? I think not.
Trump Appeal to the Supreme Court in the Insurrection Case:
Trump’s new Supreme Court gambit doesn’t even try to hide that it’s a delaying tactic The Court gave the government until 2/20/24 to respond to Trump's petition. A response was filed on 2/14.
I view it more likely than not that at least 4 of the 6 republican justices will grant the petition to review. 4 votes are necessary to accept the petition for Supreme Court review and 5 votes are necessary to stay the lower court proceeding.
If Trump's petition for review is accepted, that would be accompanied by a stay of the D.C. Court of Appeals decision denying Trump's claim of absolute immunity from criminal prosecutions until the Court publishes a decision. The general idea would be to delay the trial until after the election.
Judge Cannon and the Documents Case:
Trump Attends Court Hearing on Access to Classified Documents - The New York Times Trump appointed Judge Cannon shortly before leaving office. It is becoming more likely, but not yet probable IMO, that the 11th Circuit will remove her from the case if she continues issuing orders that have no basis in law.
Reading the 11th Circuit decision on the last interlocutory appeal reversing a Cannon order, it is apparent that the judges believed that the her opinion was just ridiculous. 11th Circuit Vacates Cannon’s Order to Appoint a Special Master in Mar-a-lago Investigation | Lawfare
The two matters pending before Cannon that may prompt appeals involve granting public access to the identities of prosecution witnesses prior to a trial, which will result in their intimation by Trumpsters which is a desired result in Trump's America, and whether Cannon fails to follow the guidelines of the Classified Information Procedures Act. Special counsel fights judge’s order allowing Trump to reveal witness identities in Mar-a-Lago case; Feds investigate threats to potential witness in Trump Mar-a-Lago documents case; Special counsel details threats against witnesses in Mar-a-Lago case in effort to protect their identities; Justice Manual-Synopsis Of Classified Information Procedures Act (CIPA) | United States Department of Justice
Daily Show Takes on Trump:
Jordan Klepper & Desi Lydic "Solve" the Border Crisis | The Daily Show - YouTube
Trump Goes After Nikki Haley’s "Missing" Husband | The Daily Show - YouTube
++++++++++
Deeply Delusional Putin:
Losses ∙ Russia- WarSpotting-documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Russia's air defense systems and/or its operators are proving to be inadequate to the task.
Ukrainian military says it sank a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea - YouTube; Ukraine says it successfully destroyed a Russian landing vessel in the Black Sea | DW News - YouTube
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot in Kursk - YouTube
The Tucker Carlson interview with Putin establishes beyond any doubt that Putin is deeply delusional. He is in many unfortunate ways a carbon copy of Trump. Tucker Carlson's Putin interview was even worse than expected; Fact-Checking Tucker Carlson Interview With Vladimir Putin: Baseless Claims About The War In Ukraine - YouTube; Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin's 'nonsense' history
Putin is justifying the war in part on a fictional historical narrative that ends with a conclusion that Ukraine belongs to Russia. I discuss that narrative in this video: Tucker Carlson Putin Interview - YouTube
It does not take reading between the lines that Putin wants to absorb all of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.
When asked whether he would be satisfied with the Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Army, Putin said no. Russia needed to "denazify" all all of Ukraine. Full Text Transcript of Tucker Carlson Putin Interview | Mirage News The only Nazis in Ukraine are the Russians.
There was a period when western governments thought Russia would change by increased trade and economic ties with the west. That belief was delusional. Putin deliberately and quickly threw all of that away in furtherance of Russia's effort to terminate Ukraine's independence and democracy.
The western democracies efforts to integrate Russian into a mutual beneficial trade and economic relationships only served to strengthen Russia and to fund its imperialistic designs on other nations. Russia is not going to change, and, consequently, all economic and trade ties between Russia and the western democracies need to be permanently severed and never restored. Russia is an evil force in the world and will remain one indefinitely.
Putin has placed Estonia's Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary and other officials of the Baltic states on a wanted list for criminal charges. The Baltic States are prime targets for Putin's next war of aggression and forced absorption into the Russian federation.
Sweden calls on its citizens to prepare for war | DW News - YouTube
Russians Fleeing Their Country By Boat End Up In Alaska To Avoid War Mobilization - YouTube
++++
Biden's Brain:
As Biden’s memory issues draw attention, neurologists weigh in Neurologists point out that these memory issues are frequently sporadic, are more likely to occur when an elderly person is under stress but have nothing to do with judgment that improves with age.
The kind of memory issues that Biden is experiencing are in part age related but not entirely. Young people can forget names or make mistakes in conveying information. The problem does advance with age as shown by errors made by both Trump and Biden. Memory is fallible irrespective of age. Mental lapses by Biden and Trump spark questions about memory and aging - The Washington Post (“Most of us have memory slips all the time" and memory lapses are "normal at every stage in life" said Earl K. Miller, professor of neuroscience at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology." Miller notes that people don't notice or pay attention to those kid of mistakes when done by a non-elderly person but they are noticed and assigned significance when done by an elderly person.
Speaking about myself, I have had trouble remembering names my entire life and that is far from unique.
I sometimes get up from my desk and go into the kitchen to retrieve something to eat, arrive at the location within a few seconds and then try to remember what I was going to get. I am not senile, nor am I in the early stages of senility. I have seen both in people that I know.
+++
1. Small Ball Buys:
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Rises Above 20.0 For First Time in 2 Years
Ed Yardeni: "Our main concern right now is that the S&P 500 may be starting a tech-led meltup similar to what happened during the second half of the 1990s . . . We are wondering whether a bout of irrational exuberance might push the multiple higher, inflating a speculative bubble in the stock market as occurred during the late 1990s." Ed Yardeni Is Getting Nervous About The Speed Of S&P 500's Rally
A. Started TGNA - Bought 10 at $14.52; 10 at $14.32:
Quote: TEGNA Inc. (TGNA)
Cost $288.3
This is my first purchase.
TEGNA owns 64 television stations that reach approximately 39% of American households. It also owns "leading multicast networks True Crime Network, Twist and Quest."
TEGNA Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 2/10/24, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2024 was $3.7, falling to $2.39 in 2025. The up and down movement is related to advertising revenue in an election year compared to a year with no major event generating additional ad revenues)
Investor Relations | TEGNA Inc.
In February 2022, TENGA announced that it has agreed to be acquired by Standard General for $24 per share. TEGNA to be Acquired by Standard General for $24.00 Per Share
TEGA's acquisition was not completed due to regulatory opposition.
Standard General had to pay TEGNA a $136M breakup fee. In lieu of cash, Standard General transferred 8,640,452 TEGNA shares to TEGNA "(equal to the termination fee plus interest accrued since termination of merger agreement)" TEGNA Inc. Enters Into $300 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement That accelerated repurchase program was in addition to the retirement of the 8.64+M shares received from Standard General. TEGNA completed that accelerated repurchase on 8/31/23 and then entered into a 325M accelerated share repurchase. TEGNA Inc. Enters Into $325 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement (11/9/23).
This company benefits from ad spending in an election year.
Average cost per share: $14.415
Dividend: Quarterly at $.11375 per share ($.455 annually), last raised from $.095 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
TGNA Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC per share: 3.156%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/7/2023
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23): TEGNA Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2023 Results and Provides Fourth Quarter Guidance
"Share buybacks: Since the termination of the merger agreement,
The 2023 4th quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on 2/29/24.
Other recent news:
TEGNA and NBC Renew Affiliation Agreement (1/3/24)
DirecTV, Tegna dispute over: Agreement reached after 6-week blackout (1/13/24)
B. Added to OGE - Bought 5 at $32.3; 5 at $32.2:
Quote: OGE Energy Corp
Cost: $322.5
OGE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to OGE - Bought 5 at $32.92; 5 at $32.65(1/26/24 Post)
I discussed the 2023 third quarter earnings release in this post: Item # 1.B. Restarted OGE -Bought 5 at $34.84 (12/2/23 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
The 2023 4th quarter report is scheduled for release on 2/21/24 before the market opens.
Average cost per share: $32.98 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4182 ($1.67 annually), last raised from $.4141 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Dividend History | OGE Energy Corp.
Yield at New AC = 5.06%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/5/24
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Eliminated OGE - Sold 2 at $38.29; 5 at $38.87; and 8 at $38.52 (4/14/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $75.3)
C. Started BRT - Bought 10 at $16.4; 5 at $16.25:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Apartment REIT
Cost: $245.24
These are my first purchases.
Market Capitalization: About $300M at $16.4
Management: Internal
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 "At September 30, 2023, the Company: (i) wholly owns
Occupancy and Units as of 9/30/23:
Recent Development: In December 2023, the company announced that it would not acquire a 238 unit apartment complex in Richmond and may lose its $1.3M escrow deposit.
Average cost per share: $16.35 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share.
Yield at AC = 6.12%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/19/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
FFO per share: $.31
AFFO per share: $.41
Net GAAP Loss to AFFO Reconciliation:
I would not pay attention to the AFFO number, which is generally defined as funds available for distribution. The BRT calculation does not reduce FFO for maintenance expenses which would be a significant number for apartment REITs and would consequently significantly reduce FFO.
D. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $8.83:
Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. Overview - A Leveraged CEF
Cost $44.15
SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 10/31/23 Leverage is discussed at pages 21-22.
Sponsor's website: Duff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $7.99 (10/14/23 Post)
Average cost per share: $8.93 (25+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 ($.84 annually), supported by ROC
Yield at New AC = 9.41%
Next Ex Dividend: 3/4/24
Data Date of 2/7/24 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $10.1
Closing Market Price: $8.83
Discount: -12.57%
Sourced: DPG-CEF Connect
E. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $123.4; 1 at $122.25:
Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - An Apartment REIT
Cost: $245.65
New Average cost per share: $127.75 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.47 per share ($5.88 annually).
Dividends MAA | Luxury Apartment Rentals
Yield at New AC: 4.6%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/11/24
I will continue adding to the position in 1 share purchase for as long as the price continues to decline.
I discussed the last earnings report in this post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.A. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $129.7; 1 at $128.55; 1 at $125.2 (2/9/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
2. Small Ball Sells:
For two of the eliminated stock positions, COHR and UPBD, sold at small losses, I decided that I would prefer having the cash than owning the shares.
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position In PAVE - Sold 5 at $35.92:
Quote: Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF
Proceeds: $179.6
Profit Snapshot: +$29.45
Sponsor's website: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
Expense Ratio: .47%
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.Q. Bought 8 PAVE - Multiple Purchases with an AC at $22.38 (3/6/21 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 7.D. Eliminated PAVE - Sold 6 at $28.19; 5 at $28.15(4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $54.36)
Top 10 Holdings as of 2/13/24:
P/E multiples for the top 25 holdings can be found at Global X US Infrastructure ETF (PAVE) Portfolio - Morningstar
PAVE -Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
Dividends: Paid semiannually
I view the dividend payments as irrelevant to an investment decision.
B. Eliminated FCBC - Sold 10 at $32.9:
Quote: First Community Bancshares Inc. (FCBC)
Proceeds: $329
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $138.5
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 5 FCBC at $19.2; 5 at $18.9 (11/13/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share, last raised from $.27 effective for the 2022 third quarter payment. The quarterly dividend was at $.12 in the 2014 first quarter.
FCBC Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 2/8/24 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter.
GAAP Diluted E.P.S. = $.66, down from $.77
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.79, up from $.78
The adjustment to GAAP is for a $3M litigation charge. I do not ignore that kind of charge or a litigation settlement, since I view those expenses as part of operations. There is a brief summary of lawsuits at page 37 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23. The information is insufficient for me to draw any conclusions.
NIM: 4.42%, up from 4.34%
NPL Ratio: .76%, up from .7%
NPA Ratio: .6%, up from .55%
Charge off ratio: .14%, down from .37%
Tangible Book Value per share: $18.6, up from $17.76
Current Position: None
C. Eliminated ASB Sold 14 at $20.72:
Quote: Associated Banc-Corp.
Proceeds: +$300.81
Profit Snapshot: $121.13
This snapshot includes fractional shares purchased with dividends that were sold earlier in 2024.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Sold 1.237 ASB at $23.67 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.69)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Started ASB-Bought 10 at $12.35; 5 at $11.9 (8/8/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, last raised from $.21 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
Next Ex Dividend: 2/29/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
Comparisons are to the 2022 4th quarter.
E.P.S. -$.62, down from $.7
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.53
GAAP to Non-GAAP: The loss was caused by selling owned securities at a loss and by the FDIC special assessment.
ASB, like most other banks, did not meaningfully adjust the duration of its owned security portfolio in 2021 when it was obvious that the increase in inflation would cause the FED to raise interest rates. There was a lengthy period in 2021 when long duration securities could have been sold for a profit or small losses.
NIM = 2.69%, down from 3.31%
NPL Ratio: .51%, up from .39%
Charge off Ratio: .16%, up from zero net.
ASB Junior Bond: I own 4 Associated Banc 4.25% junior bonds that mature on 1/15/25. Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Associated Banc 4.25% Junior Bonds Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 92.1 (5/20/23 Post); Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Associated Banc 4.25% Junior Bonds Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.594 (1/23/23 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org
I doubt that a junior bond issued by a bank holding company would have any value when and if the FDIC seizes the operating bank. I would just assume that would be the case.
ASB Equity Preferred Stock: I own 10 shares of ASBPRF.Associated Banc-Corp (ASB-PF); Item # 3.C. Bought 10 ASBPRF at $15.84 (7/15/23 Post); Prospectus (5.625% coupon paid on a $25 par value, yield at $15.84 = 8.88%)
D. Eliminated COHR - Sold 15 at $62.7:
Quote: Coherent Corp. (COHR)
Proceeds: $940.49
Website: Global Leader in Materials, Networking, and Lasers
COHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
COHR Investor Presentation (2/5/24).pdf
Loss Snapshot: -$46.89
Dividend: None and none expected
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/23):
Investors reacted positively to this report. I was not impressed.
When and if I become more impressed, and the stock sinks back below $40, I will consider restarting a position with small ball purchases. The company is at least interesting.
E. Eliminated UPBD - Sold 26+ at $33.57:
Proceeds: $872.79
UPBD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Upbound Group, Inc.
Loss Snapshot: Net of -$26.94
Last Discussed: The company was previously known as Rent-A-Center that traded under the RCII symbol. Item # 1.O. Sold 2 RCII at $63.6 (4/1/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share, last raised from $.34 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/18/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
GAAP E.P.S. = $.08
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.79
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
Revenue: $979.1M, down from $1.024M in the 2023 second quarter
F. Pared AIO - Sold 15 at $19.7:
Quote: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balanced CEF
I sold on the ex dividend date which was 2/9/24. I sold my highest cost lots using FIFO accounting.
Proceeds: $295.5
Sponsor's website: Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund
Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the Period Ending 7/31/23.
As of 7/31/23, the fund had the following weightings, with the total exceeding 100% due to the leverage: convertible bonds at 39.8%, corporate bonds at 17.6%; and common stocks at 56.7%.
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 10/31/23
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Profit Snapshot: $14.18
New Average cost per share: $16.48 (62+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 2/9/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $16.89.
Dividend: Monthly at $.15 per share ($1.8 annually)
AIO Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
I owned a few shares when AIO went ex dividend for a $3.45 per share capital gain distribution that was paid in January 2022. I received that dividend in cash.
Yield at AC of $16.48: 10.92%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/24 (Owned all as of)
Data Date of 2/9/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $21.36
Closing Market Price: $19.48
Discount: -8.8%
Sourced: AIO - CEF Connect
G. Eliminated VOX - Sold 2 at $127.72:
Quote: Vanguard Communication Services ETF Overview
Proceeds $255.44
Profit Snapshot: +$31.37
Sponsor's website: VOX-Vanguard Communication Services ETF | Vanguard
I am taking almost no interest rate risk with these purchases. 8 of the 11 corporate bonds mature in December 2024 while the remaining 3 mature in either February or March 2025. 9 mature within 1 year with 2 maturing on 3/15/25.
A. Bought 2 American Express 3.625% SU Maturing on 12/5/24 at a Total Cost of 98.7:
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Issuer: American Express Co. (AXP)
AXP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
AXP SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 (net income of $1.933B)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.276%
Current Yield at TC = 3.67%
B. Bought 2 Spectra Energy Partners 3.5% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.099:
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Issuer: Spectra Energy Partners is now owned by Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.317%
Current Yield at TC = 3.57%
I have two Spectra Energy SU bonds that mature on 3/15/24.
C. Bought 1 Dominion Gas 3.6% SU Maturing on 12/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.632:
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Issuer: An indirect subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway through its ownership of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. This bond can be found as an outstanding obligation of at BHE subsidiary, see page 146.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.28%
Current Yield at TC = 3.65%
I now own 2 bonds.
D. Bought 2 Retail Opportunity 4% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.697:
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Issuer: Retail Opportunity Investment Corp (ROIC) - A Retail REIT
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/23 (ROIC "is a fully-integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of grocery-anchored shopping centers located in densely-populated, metropolitan markets across the West Coast. As of September 30, 2023, ROIC owned 93 shopping centers encompassing approximately 10.6 million square feet. ROIC is the largest publicly-traded, grocery-anchored")
I now own 4 bonds.
E. Bought 2 Carlisle 3.5% SU Maturing on 12/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.6:
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Issuer: Carlisle Cos. (CSL)
CSL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CSL SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.31%
Current Yield at TC = 3.55%
I now own 4 bonds.
F. Bought 1 Ventas 3.5% LP SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.14:
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Issuer: Operating entity for
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.506%
Current Yield at TC = 3.566%
I now own 4 bonds.
G. Bought 1 Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage 3.6% SU Maturing on 12/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.628:
Issuer: An indirect subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway through its ownership of Berkshire Energy.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.3%
Current yield at TC = 3.65%
I would continue buying this one in 1 bond lots provided each purchase was at the lowest price in the chain.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 2/15/24 Auction:
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Matures on 4/16/24
Interest: $81.98
Investment Rate: 5.402%
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/12/24 Auction:
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91 Day Bill
Matures on 5/16/24
Interest: $66.1
Investment Rate: 5.388%
C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 2/12/24 Auction:
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182 Day Bill
Matures on 8/15/24
Interest: $51.21
Investment Rate: 5.285%
D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/14/24 Auction:
%206:18:24.png){kind=small}
%206:16:24.png)
119 Day Bill
Matures on 6/18/24
Interest: $86.2
Investment Rate: 5.395%
5. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Added to ARGOPRA - Bought 5 at $23.7:
Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. Series A Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock
Cost: $118.5
The original issuer was acquired by Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd. (BNRE).
Brookfield Reinsurance Completes $1.1 Billion Acquisition of Argo Group
BNRE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in ARGOPRA - Sold 15 at $22.86 and Item 3.D. Added 4 ARGOPRA in Schwab Account at (9/9/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $47.58)
Prior Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Added 5 AGROPRA at $19.05 (1/10/23 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7% to but excluding 9/15/25 then, if not called, resets for 5 years at a 6.712% spread to the 5 year treasury note.
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock
New Average Cost per share: $24.35 (30 shares)
Yield at New AC (using current fixed rate coupon) = 7.1869%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/23
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Qualified and Non-Cumulative.
This is a link to the original prospectus. Prospectus
After Argo was acquired, a new prospectus was issued that had the same terms. A new prospectus was issued due to a name change and reincorporation from a Bermuda company to a U.S. registered one. SEC Form 8-K The new prospectus for ARGOPRA is attached as Exhibit A to the the SEC Certificate of Incorporation. SEC Filing
The dividend rate is the same:
While I would not predict what the 5 year treasury rate will be on the September reset date, I doubt that Brookfield will want to pay a 6.712% spread to that rate. My current prediction, subject to change, is that this preferred stock will be called on the reset date.
B. Eliminated TFC.PRI - Sold 5 at $21.71:
Quote: TFC-PI
Proceeds: $108.56
Issuer: Truist Financial Corp (TFC)
Profit Snapshot: +$8.56
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 5 TFCPRI at $20 (11/4/23 Post)
C. Eliminated KREPRA - Sold 10 at $18.32:
Quote: KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. 6.5% Pfd. Series A
Proceeds: $183.2
Issuer: KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF)
This position was eliminated based on increased concerns about credit risks resulting from the loss reported for the 2023 4th quarter. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/23 The company reported a net loss of $18.7M and a $26M loss in distributable earnings. In December 2023, the company took title to an office building in Philadelphia after the owner defaulted on KREF's loan and the company took a $58.7M realized loss on that loan.
Profit Snapshot: +$23.01
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 KREFPRA (1/10/23 Post)
Security: Prospectus
IPO at $25 in April 2021
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid Quarterly and Cumulative
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/22
6. Exchange Traded Bond:
A. Added 5 GLADZ at $24.88:
Quote: Gladstone Capital Corporation 7.75% Notes due 2028 (GLADZ)
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Bought 5 at $24.94 (9/16/23 Post)
This SU bond was trading over par value prior to the ex interest date. I added this 5 share lot on the ex interest date which allowed for a below par value purchase.
Issuer: Gladstone Capital Corp. (GLAD) - An Externally Managed BDC
GLAD SEC Filed EarningsPress Release for the Q/E 6/30/23
Website: Gladstone Capital Corporation (GLAD)
Contrary to the description of this security in the previous snapshot as a preferred stock, GLADZ is a senior unsecured bond.
This is made clear in the prospectus.
Prospectus: "The Notes will be our direct unsecured obligations and rank equal in right of payment with all outstanding and future unsecured, unsubordinated indebtedness issued by us (including our 3.75% Notes due 2027 and 5.125% Notes due 2026). Because the Notes will not be secured by any of our assets, they will be effectively subordinated to any future secured indebtedness of Gladstone Capital Corporation (or any indebtedness that is initially unsecured as to which we subsequently grant a security interest) to the extent of the value of the assets securing such indebtedness."
Referring to this note as "unsecured, unsubordinated indebtedness" indicates that the security is a senior unsecured bond, not a preferred stock.
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Exchange Traded: Trades flat on the stock exchange.
Coupon: 7.5%
Par Value: $25
Maturity: 9/1/2028
Optional Call at par value: On or after 9/1/2025
Interest Payments: Made Quarterly
New Average cost per share: $24.91 (10 shares)
Yield at Total Cost: 7.527%
First Ex Interest Date: 11/14/23
The first payment includes 1 full quarterly period and a partial quarter. The amount will be $.5597+ per share. The regular quarterly interest payment thereafter will be $.46875.
Last Ex Interest Date: 2/14/24 (owned 5 shares as of)
Gladstone Capital Corporation Prices Public Offering of 7.75% Notes due 2028 (10/10/23)
7. Cash Flow into My Fidelity Taxable Account on 2/15/24:
I have 4 brokerage accounts and 1 mutual fund account with T. Rowe Price.
A major part of my investment strategy is to generate a constant stream of cash flow into my brokerage accounts. The cash flow will consist of dividend and interest payments as well as proceeds from maturing securities.
Interest payments from Tennessee municipal bonds are made on the 1st business day of each month. Those bonds are owned in 3 taxable accounts.
Corporate bond interest payments are made every week but more than 1/2th will occur on the 1st, 15th and last business day of each month. I own corporate bonds in all 4 brokerage accounts.
Redemption Proceeds: $10,000
Interest and Dividend Payments: $423.46
I own all of the corporate bonds referenced in these snapshots in other taxable accounts except for the Virginia Electric bonds that were only owned in my Fidelity account.
The National Rural Electric and Goldman Sachs SU bonds pay monthly interest and the positions are just 1 bond lots.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
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