AIO, AMCR, AMGN, CPB, EAI, FHN, FSPHX, LYB, NBB, NCZ, QYLD, PHG, REET, RTL, VNOPRM,

Economy: 

'Very, very high' risk of recession, warns Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein as bank cuts U.S. growth forecast - MarketWatch (2022 GDP forecast cut to 2.4% from 2.6%; 2023 forecast cut to 1.6% from 2.2%)

Home affordability at 2007 bubble level but crash unlikely: Blackstone

Builder Confidence Plunges on Rising Interest Rates, Growing Affordability Woes | Eye On Housing

Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers tumbles 12%

Powell says the Fed will not hesitate to keep raising rates until inflation comes down

The Fed - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17 ("In April, total industrial production increased 1.1 percent—the fourth consecutive month of gains of 0.8 percent or greater—and manufacturing output rose 0.8 percent. The index for utilities moved up 2.4 percent, and the index for mining advanced 1.6 percent. At 105.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 6.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization climbed to 79.0 percent, a rate that is 0.5 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average.")

Retail Sales in April 2022 (unadjusted for inflation): Up .9% from March 2022 and + 8.2% Y-O-Y.  

Census Bureau.pdf

++++

CBOE Volatility Index 

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index 

CBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index 

Charts:

Shiller PE Ratio

S&P  Shiller PE Ratio Chart Since 1870 (second chart)

The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

Capacity Utilization: Total Index-St. Louis Fed

All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level/Gross Domestic Product-St. Louis Fed

Nonfinancial Corporate Business; Debt Securities; Liability, Level-St. Louis Fed

Federal Debt Held by Federal Reserve Banks-St. Louis Fed

Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Consumer Credit; Liability, Level-St. Louis Fed

Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income-St. Louis Fed

Household Financial Obligations as a percent of Disposable Personal Income-St. Louis Fed

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - St. Louis Fed

M2 Money Stock -St. Louis Fed

Velocity of M2 Money Stock St. Louis Fed

Personal Saving Rate-St. Louis Fed

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims- St. Louis Fed

Unemployment Rate-St. Louis Fed

Households; Owners' Equity in Real Estate, Level -St. Louis Fed

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Average in the United States-St. Louis Fed

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index-St. Louis Fed

Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States-St. Louis Fed

Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the C- (U-6)-St. Louis Fed

Share of Labor Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for the United States -St. Louis Fed

Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks- St. Louis Fed

Cass Freight Index: Shipments-St. Louis Fed

Truck Tonnage-St. Louis Fed

Leading Index for the United States-St. Louis Fed

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment-St. Louis Fed

E-Commerce Retail Sales-St. Louis Fed

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in the U.S. City Average-St. Louis Fed

WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends

+++

Earnings Reports - Owned Stocks: I briefly summarize earning reports from about 40% to 50% of the stocks that I own.  

AMC Networks (AMCX) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $2.38; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $2.54 with the consensus at $2.632; Non-GAAP income removes a $10.564M non-cash amortization of acquisition related intangible assets;  Revenues up 3% to $712.157M; the AMC+ streaming service went over 9M subscribers and is on track for 20-25M by 2055 according to the company)  

Clipper Realty (CLPR) SEC Filed Press Release (AFFO of $4.42M or $.10 per share; revenues = $32.1M, up from $30.7M in the 2021 first quarter; 96% occupancy; declared a regular quarterly dividend of $.095 per share)

Fidus Investment (FDUS) SEC Filed Press Release (NII of $10.3M or $.42 per share; Net asset value per share = $19.91, down from $19.96 as of 12/31/21; Estimated spillover income at $1.77 per share; Paid regular dividend of $.36 per share and a supplemental at $.17 per share during the quarter; "As of March 31, 2022, 37 portfolio company’s debt investments bore interest at a variable rate, which represented $460.1 million, or 70.7%, of our debt investment portfolio on a fair value basis, and the remainder of our debt investment portfolio was comprised of fixed rate investments. . . . The weighted average yield on debt investments was 11.9% as of March 31, 2022."; "On April 21, 2022, we exited our equity investment in TransGo, LLC. We received a distribution on our common equity investment for a realized gain of approximately $1.9 million."; declared a second quarter regular dividend of $.36 per share and a supplemental at $.07)

First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $.44, non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.46 with the consensus at $.453 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.17%, down from 3.4% in the 2021 first quarter; Adjusted Efficiency ratio at 67.7%, viewed as too high by me; NPA Ratio = .33%; NPL Ratio = .58%; Coverage Ratio = 231.98%; Charge off ratio - .1%; ROA = 1.03%; ROE = 7.53%,viewed by me as poor; ROTE = 14.93%; total capital ratio = 13.97%; Tangible book value per share = $10.97)

Flushing Financial (FFIC) 1Q22 Earnings Release (E.P.S. at $.58 with consensus at $.537 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.36%, up from 3.18% in the 2021 first quarter; efficiency ratio = 58.9%; Coverage Ratio = 266.12%; NPA Ratio = .21%; "Over 87% of gross loans are collateralized by real estate with an average loan-to-value ratio of <38% as of March 31, 2022'; tangible book value per share  =  $21.61) 

FS KKR (FSK) SEC Filed Press Release (NII per share at $.77, adjusted to $.72 with consensus at $.65; Net asset value per share = $27.33, up from $27.17 as of 12/31/22; paid regular dividend of $.63 per share during the quarter and declared a regular dividend of $.68 for the current quarter; "As of March 31, 2022, investments on non-accrual status represented 1.5% and 3.2% of the total investment portfolio at fair value and amortized cost, respectively, compared to 1.9% and 3.9% as of December 31, 2021"; % in variable debt investments at 68.9%)

Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) SEC Filed Press Release (FFO per share = $.40; Normalized FFO = $.44 which excludes  certain expenses; Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) reported at $80.3M or $.35 per share; "On February 28, 2022, HTA announced that it has agreed to enter into a strategic business combination with Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (NYSE:HR) (“Healthcare Realty” or “HR”). Subject to a favorable stockholder vote, upon the consummation of the merger, HTA stockholders would receive a total implied value of $35.08 per share comprised of a special cash dividend of $4.82 per share and a transaction exchange ratio of 1:1 based on HR’s unaffected price of $30.26 on February 24, 2022. Upon the consummation of the merger, this transaction would bring together two of the largest owners of medical office buildings, creating the preeminent, pure-play medical office building REIT and positions the combined company to create long-term stockholder value. With 733 properties totaling 44 million square feet, the combined company would be the largest pure-play MOB REIT, with nearly double the square footage of the next largest MOB portfolio. The combined company will have a pro forma equity market capitalization of approximately $11.6 billion and a total enterprise value of $17.6 billion based on the implied values at market close on February 24, 2022. The special cash dividend as described above is expected to be financed through a combination of joint venture transactions and asset sales. As of April 29, 2022, HTA and HR have received letters of intent from, and are in advanced negotiations with, three institutional investors for a combination of joint venture and asset sales totaling $1.7 billion at a weighted average cap rate of 4.8%. Net proceeds from these transactions are expected to be approximately $1.6 billion. The transactions may occur in separate tranches, with the initial transactions expected to close prior to the vote on the merger by HTA and HR stockholders and the remainder to be completed on or around the closing date of the merger") Both stocks fell in response to the merger announcement. The HTA price is currently hovering below my last sale made before the announcement. Item # 1.H. Sold 5 HTA at $31.61; 5 at $32.89 (11/11/21 Post); HTA Stock Price Both HTA and HR have proven an inability to grow FAD per share over a long period of time. Combining the two MOB REITs will only continue that pathetic performance. HTA reported a FAD per diluted share of $.35 in the 2022 1st quarter and at $.362 per diluted share in the 2017 first quarter. SEC Filed Press Release 

Hologic  (HOLX) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $1.80; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $2.07, with the  consensus at $1.596 per Fidelity; "Revenue of $1.436 billion decreased (6.6%) for the quarter, or (5.2%) in constant currency, primarily driven by lower sales of COVID-19 assays compared to the prior year period"; guides fiscal 2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. to $5.45 to $5.65, up from the prior guidance of $4.9 to $5.2, but down 35.2% to 32.8% Y-O-Y due to lower Covid revenues)

II-VI (IIVI) SEC Filed Press Release and Investor Presentation (GAAP E.P.S. = $.28; non-GAAP at $.95 with the consensus at $.854 per Fidelity; Revenues = $827.7M, up from $783.2M in the 2021 first quarter; Record backlog of $2.1B, up 48%)  

NBT   Bancorp (NBTB) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $39.1M or $.90 per share with the consensus at $.77 per Fidelity; NIM =2.95%, down from 3.17% in the 2021 first quarter; NPL Ratio = .36%; NPA Ratio = .23%; Charge off ratio = .14%; Coverage Ratio = 323.25%; ROA = 1.32%; ROE= 12.78%; ROTE = 16.87%; Total Capital Ratio  =  15.64%; Tangible book value per share = $21.25)

New Mountain Finance (NMFC) SEC Filed Press Release (NII per share = $.30 in line with consensus and unchanged from the 2021 first quarter; declared regularly quarterly dividend of $.30; Net asset value per share. = $13.56, up from $13.49 as of 12/31/21; weighted average yield at cost  = 9.8%)

Stellus Capital Investment Corporation (SCM) Reports Results for its first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2022 (NII at $.28 per share; net asset value per share at $14.59, down from $14.61 as of 12/31/21) 

++ 

Finland announces NATO bid-Ruling Parties in Finland and Sweden Announce Support for Joining NATO-The Washington Post

Sweden joins Finland in seeking NATO membership, drawing muted response from Putin - The Washington Post  

Of the European countries, Finland is the best prepared for a conventional Russian military invasion. Those preparations include underground bunkers capable of housing the entire population of Helsinki. Helsinki's bunkers reflect Russia fears - CNN Video While Finland has less than 6M people, it has top notch military force. The Finns are certainly aware that Russia is a hostile military aggressor capable of murdering civilians on a vast scale and leveling entire cities, including homes, apartment buildings, hospitals and other civilian structures.     

Once again, Russia threatened nuclear war if the west continued to supply weapons to Ukraine. Russia's former President Medvedev warns Western military aid for Ukraine risks sparking nuclear war | Daily Mail Online Just another crazy and reckless fool in a leadership position of a nuclear power, whose main concern now may be keeping the wealth he has generated as a "public servant". 

Russia State TV Stands by Nuclear Threat: Ireland is 'Collateral Damage'

Russia's invasion not going to plan, Nato says - BBC News ("Britain's Ministry of Defence (MoD) estimates Russia has lost about a third of its ground combat force since the war began in February.")

Russian Atrocities Prompt Bipartisan Push to Expand U.S. War Crimes Law - The New York Times

CNN's exclusive report on Russian general who oversaw atrocities - YouTube The war crimes evidence is conclusive. 

Ukraine sends images of dead Russian soldiers to their families. Hear the responses they received - YouTube I do not agree with sending images of dead soldiers to their families. At some point in the conflict, it is proper to notify the families (or government in most cases excluding Russia of course) and providing them with information about where they can retrieve the body for burial. Russia is an exception since it frequently leaves the bodies of lower ranking soldiers where they died and neglects to inform their family members of their deaths. The Russian government is incapable of being truthful even about the number of Russian soldiers who have died in Ukraine. 

The Russian army is effective at murdering unarmed civilians and hitting undefended high rise apartment buildings, hospitals, train stations, civilian homes and businesses with bombs and missiles, but has also proven in Ukraine, beyond any doubt, that it would be no match for NATO when and if Russia attacks a NATO member.    

There use to be references to the Iron Curtain that Russia's government wrapped its citizens. That Iron Curtain is back of course but the West needs to envelop Russia in one too that would keep the Russians confined to Russia.     

+++

1. Added 450 FHN at $21.53 in Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)

FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

This is an arbitrage play that I recently discussed in several comments, with the most detailed discussion here and here. 

Simply put, I am betting that Toronto Dominion's will be successful in acquiring FHN for at least $25 per share. TD to Expand in the Southeastern U.S. with Acquisition of First Horizon  

If the deal does not close before 11/27/22, the cash offer will be increased by up $.65 per share "on an annualized basis for the period from November 27, 2022 through the day immediately prior to the closing."   

FHN will continue paying its quarterly dividend until the merger is completed. The current quarterly rate is $.15 per share with the next ex dividend on 6/9/22. First Horizon Corporation Common Stock (FHN) Dividend History | Nasdaq 

The parties anticipate that the merger will close in the 2023 first quarter. 

Possible % Return on 450 Shares at $21.53 (assumes merger is completed after 4 dividend payments and 4 months after 11/27/22): 

$11,250 Cash on completion at $25 per share

$270  4 Quarterly Dividend Payments at $.15 per share ($67.5 per Q)

$97.5 4 month delay after 11/27/22 ($.65 per share ÷ 3)

Total Payments = $11,617.5

Cost = $9,688.5

Return over cost = $1,929

% Return = 19.91%

As of 4/29/22, FHN had a short interest of 28.5M shares or 6.86% of the float according to Yahoo Finance. First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Valuation Measures & Financial Statistics  

On the trading preceding the acquisition announcement, FHN closed at $18.13 and at $23.13 the next day. There is meaningful downside risk if the merger does not close. 

New Average Cost per share this account: $20.35 (500+ shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 5/16/22 after add

The AC was raised from $9.73 per share.  

I also own a few shares in other taxable accounts and in Roth IRA accounts.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share. 

First Horizon Declares Cash Dividends on Common and Preferred Stock

Yield at New AC = 2.95%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/9/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release

Net Income of $187M or $.34

Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.38

Future financial reports will become meaningful when and if the merger falls through.  

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.G. Started FHN in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought  5 at $16.92  (11/3/21 Post) 

2. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries: 

Intermediate and longer term treasury rates have been trending down for several days, primarily IMO in a flight to quality as the stock market continues its dominant downward trajectory and secondarily to increased concerns about a recession developing within 12 to 24 months that would cause the FED to cease raising the FF rate and possibly start to cut again. 

Note that the 10 year treasury yield rose when the market rallied on 5/17 and then returned to where it was the day prior to that rally: 

Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury

With more downside action expected today, partly in response to the poor Cisco earnings report, the ten year treasury is currently trading at a 2.78% yield down 11 basis points. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Overview | MarketWatch ( Last Updated: May 19, 2022 at 9:04 a.m. EDT_

A. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 12/1/27 at a Total Cost of  97.683:

Finra Information: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

The FINRA page has a price chart. This bond was trading at over 110 in 2020 and early 2021. 

Prospectus

I now own 2. The other one was bought in 2019. Item # 3.A. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 12/1/ 27 at a TC of 96.53 (3/20/19 Post) 

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)

Credit Ratings: A2/A 

There has been no change in the credit rating since that 2019 purchase. The recent decline in price from over 110 in early 2021 is due to the rise in interest rates and, to a lesser extent, the shorter time to maturity. 

YTM at TC = 3.709%

Current Yield at TC = 3.327%

B. Bought 1 Public Service Enterprise 2.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/26 at a Total Cost of 95.983: 

Finra Information: Bond Detail

The recent decline in price which is shown in the FINRA price chart is not due to any credit risk issue, but to the rise in interest rates. 

Credit Rating: A1/A

Issuer:  Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG) 

I have sold out of my PEG common stock positions. I prefer owning its FM bonds at their current yields than the common stock at its current yield.  

YTM at TC = 3.231%

Current Yield at TC = 2.34%

I sold this bond at 101.166 in February 2020: 

1 Bond: +$59.04

I now own 2 with the other one purchased in a Roth IRA account.  

C. Bought 1 Treasury 1.75% Coupon Maturing on 5/15/23 at 99.76: 

YTM = 1.972%

Current Yield = 1.754%

D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 1/30/23 at 99.7: 

YTM = 2.418%

Current Yield at 2.26%, rounded up

E. Bought 1 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 6/30/23 at 99.214: 

YTM at TC = 2.03%

Current Yield at TC = 1.39%, rounded up. 

F.  Bought 1 Treasury 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/23 at 99.714: 

YTM at TC = 1.9%

Current Yield at TC = 1.63%

3. Small Ball-All About Risk Mitigation: 

I have been using the recent decline to gradually increase my dividend income. If I knew that the bottom was near, I would pick up the pace. But, alas, I am just a human being who does not know the future.  

A. Added 5 VNOPRM at $19.41-Schwab Taxable Account:

Quote: Vornado Realty Trust 5.25% Cumulative Preferred Series M

Issuer: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)

VNO SEC Filings

Previous Buy Discussions: Item # 3.K. Bought 5 VNOPRM at $23.19 -Schwab Taxable (3/17/22 Post); Item # 3. Bought 10 VNOPRM at $19; 5 at $16.5; 5 at $14.5 - Fidelity Taxable (5/2/20 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 20 VNOPRM at $21.57 (12/5/18 Post); Item 2.C. Bought 30 VNOPRM at $21.98  (5/21/18 Post)  

Investment category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Security: Prospectus

Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common stock. 

Par Value: $25

Dividends: Cumulative, Non-Qualified (pass through entity) and Paid Quarterly

Optional Call Date: On or after 12/13/22 at par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends. 

Stopper Clause: Yes. A "stopper clause" is the legal mechanism that enforces the preferred shareholders superior right to cash vs. the common shareholder. VNO can not defer paying a cumulative preferred dividend and continue paying a cash dividend to the common shareholders. 

Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/22

Average cost per share this account: $21.30 (10 shares)

Yield at $21.3: 6.16%

I also own 10 shares in my Fidelity taxable account with an AC at $15.5 (yield at 8.47%):

Price as of 5/13/22 Close

Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Sold 10 VNOPRM at $25.34 (10/31/2020 Post); Item # 3.C. Sold 5 VNOPRM at $24.99-Highest Cost lot bought at $19 (7/18/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Eliminated VNOPRM-Sold 50 at $22.95 (5/23/19 Post)

VNOPRM Realized Gains to Date: $158.54

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend paid.  

B. Pared AMCR in Schwab Account- Sold 20 at $12.65: 

Quote: Amcor PLC

AMCR "is a global packaging company that develops and produces a broad range of packaging products including flexible packaging, rigid packaging containers, specialty cartons, and closures."

Amcor PLC Profile | Reuters

AMCR SEC Filings

Website: Global Packaging Solutions | Amcor

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute with a barely detectable flavor of dividend growth

In my small ball trading strategy, which is all about risk mitigation, I will consider selling my highest cost shares into price pops. AMCR's share price popped on 5/4/22 in response to a better than expected first quarter earnings report. 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.I. Added 10 AMCR at $11 (3/31/22 Post); Item # 2.J. Added 10 AMCR at $11.54 (2/20/22 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$13.72

New Average cost per share this account: $11.67 (100 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/4/22 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share 

Yield at $11.67 = 4.11%, rounded down. 

Next Ex Dividend:  5/24/22

Last Bond Offering (May 2022): Prospectus ($500M 4% SU maturing in 2025)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): This report was for the third fiscal quarter. 

SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation 

Adjusted E.P.S. of $.21

Consensus at $.20

Revenue up 16% to $3.708B

Fiscal 2022 Guidance:

Fiscal 2022 9 Months Financial Data: 

E.P.S. at $.456 up from $.438

Free cash flow = $263M 

Sell Discussion: Item # 1.E. Pared AMCR in Schwab Account - Sold 30 out 130 at $12.36 (2/3/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. 

Goal: The goal for a stock characterized as a bond substitute is generally defined as harvesting the dividend and realizing a 2+% annual profit return on the stock. 

C. Added 2 QYLD in Schwab Account at $19.47; 1 at $18.57; 3 at $17.96: 

Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview

"The Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index."

Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Added 5 QYLD at $20.6; 5 at $20.5-Schwab Taxable Account (3/3/22 Post) 

Sponsor's website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF

Expense Ratio = .6%

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Investment category: Monthly Income Generation

Average cost per share this account =  $20.41  (40+ shares)    

Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate 

I am reinvesting the dividend.

Yield at AC = 11.51% (using the $2.35 per share paid in 2021 which excludes a $.499 per share special distribution sourced from short term capital gains that went ex dividend on 12/30/21). 

Next Ex Dividend: 5/23/22

D. Eliminated AMGN -Sold 1.763 at $232.24; 1 at $232.18: 

Quote: Amgen Inc.

2021 AMGN Annual Report (patent information starts at page 6; patent litigation summaries are summarized in note 19, starting at page F-46) 

AMGN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AMGN SEC Filings

Website: Investors | Amgen Inc.

Amgen Pipeline

Investment categories: Dividend Growth/Bond Substitute 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Added to AMGN - Bought $50 at $201.7 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 2.F. Bought $50 AMGN at $208.1 and $100 at $205.26-Fidelity Taxable (11/18/21)

Profit Snapshots:  $56.23 (5/3/22 sale only)

Dividends: Quarterly at $1.94 ($7.76 annually), last raised from $1.76 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. 

AMGN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): 

GAAP E.P.S. = $2.68

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $4.25

Consensus at $4.095 per Fidelity

Revenues: Up 6% Y-O-Y to $6.238B

Free Cash Flow = $1.974B

AMGN disclosed in this report that it had received "a notice of deficiency from the IRS for the 2013-2015 period proposing adjustments primarily related to the allocation of profits between certain of the Company’s entities in the United States and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico similar to those previously proposed by the IRS for the 2010-2012 period. This notice seeks to increase Amgen’s U.S. taxable income for the 2013-2015 period by an amount that would result in additional federal tax of approximately $5.1 billion, plus interest. In addition, the notice proposes penalties of approximately $2 billion." 

Amgen argues that the IRS position is without merit and further claims that there are offsets to any potential award. 

There is no way for an individual investor to assess AMGN's potential liability for back taxes which just added to my other concerns about declining revenues from key products. I discussed some of those concerns in Item # 4.G. (2/24/22 Post). 

Product Revenues: 

Otezia revenues declined 5% Y-O-Y. AMGN paid  $13.4B for that drug. Amgen Completes Acquisition Of Otezla® (apremilast)| Amgen

My largest position within the past decade was a 20 share lot sold in 2016, realizing a gain of $310.68.  

Consider to Repurchase: <$200

E.  Eliminated REET in Fidelity Taxable - Sold 5 at $27:

Quote: REET | iShares Global REIT ETF Overview

Sponsor's website: iShares Global REIT ETF | REET

Expense Ratio: .14%

I still own 23+ shares in my Vanguard taxable account with an AC of $20.77 per share. 

Profit Snapshot: +$52.51

Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Restarted REET - Bought 5 at $16.52  (4/18/20 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate

Last 4 Dividends: $.87 per share

Yield at $27: 3.2%  

Top 10 Holdings as of 5/13/22: 

F. Added to RTL - Bought 2 at $7.35; 3 at $6.91: 

Quote: Necessity Retail REIT Inc.

RTL SEC Filings

Website: Necessity Retail REIT

RTL completed a major transformation in the 2022 first quarter: 

THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT CLOSES ON 10 PROPERTY, $220 MILLION TRANCHE OF PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED $1.3 BILLION OPEN-AIR SHOPPING CENTER ACQUISITION

AMERICAN FINANCE TRUST CLOSES ON FIRST TRANCHE OF PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED $1.3 BILLION OPEN-AIR SHOPPING CENTER ACQUISITION 

AMERICAN FINANCE TRUST COMPLETES PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED $261 MILLION SALE OF OFFICE BUILDINGS, REDUCING OFFICE EXPOSURE TO 1%

Last Buy Discussion:  Item # 3.E. Added 5 RTL at $7.14 (3/17/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.L. Added 30 AFIN at $8.21 (11/5/21 Post)(symbol later changed to RTL)  

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Management: External

New Average cost per share this account: $8.15 (135+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)

Dividend History | The Necessity Retail REIT, Inc.

I am concerned that the dividend will be cut due to existing cash flow coverage that will be aggravated by increased debt expense.  

I am currently reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at AC = 10.43%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/8/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/2022): SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental 

AFFO per share = $.24

Net Income to AFFO: 

G. Added 5 AIO at $18.7; 5 at $18.08; 5 at $17.95; 5 at $17.2; 5 at $16.8: 

Quote: AIO | AllianzGI Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund Overview - Owns common stocks, convertible securities and high yield bonds in this sector. 

AIO SEC Filings

Leverage: Yes at 15.03% as of 4/29/22

Sponsor's Website: Virtus AllianzGI Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund 

Previous Buy Discussion: Item # 1.G.  Bought 10 AIO at $19.36 (7/25/20 Post) 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

New Average Cost per share: $18.21  (35 shares)

Dividend: Regular Monthly dividend of $.15 per share

Yield at AC Using $.15 Monthly Dividend Only = 9.88%, rounded down. 

Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/11/22

In December 2020, subsequent to that first 10 share purchase, the fund paid a special year distribution of $1.55+ per share. I took the dividend in cash and only started to average down after the price was clobbered this year. 

AIO AllianzGI AI & Tech Opportunities Fund-CEF Connect

Some Top Holdings as of 3/31/22- Greater than 1% Weighting: 

H. Pared K in Fidelity Account- Sold 7.249 Shares at $71.5: 

Quote: Kellogg Co. (K) 

Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

Kellogg Company | Our Brand Portfolio

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to Kellogg (K)-Bought 2 at $61; 1 at $60.5; 1 at $59.9; 1 at $59.4; 1 at $58.8; 1 at $58; 1 at $57.6 (1/30/21 Post); Item # 3.D. Added to Kellogg-Bought 4 at $62.7; 2 at $62.44; 2 at $61.3 (12/19/20 Post)(last substantive buy discussion); Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $70.12 (5/6/22 sale only)

Average cost per share before pare this account: $60.3 (20+ shares)

Average cost per share after pare this account: $58.39 (13 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 5/6/22 after pare  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.58 per share ($2.32 annually), last raised from $.57 effective for the 2020 2nd quarter payment. 

Dividends – Kellogg Company

Yield at New AC this account: 3.97%

Last Earnings Report (First F/Q Ending 4/3/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

The share price was boosted by this report. 

Adjusted Diluted E.P.S. = $1.10

Consensus at $.93 per Fidelity. 

Organic sales growth = +4.2%

Full Year Guidance: There was no change in the adjusted E.P.S. guidance but K did increase its organic sales growth projection to 4% from 3%. 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 4 K at $65.61-Fidelity Taxable Account  (4/7/22 Post); Item # 3.C. Sold 1 K at $67.93 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $5.02); Item # 1.L. Pared K-Sold 2 at $65 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $1.57); Item # 1.B. Sold 30 K at $66.3 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $332.32); Item # 2. Pared Kellogg- Sold  10 at $69.3 (1/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.58); Item # 2.C. Sold 10 K at $66.3 (12/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $108.58); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.08)  

Kellogg Realized Gains to Date: $751.7

I. Eliminated CPB- Sold 5 at $49.86: 

Quote: Campbell Soup Co.

Products

CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: +$43.29

Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Bought 2 CPB at $41.65; 1 at $40.4; 2 at $40.15 (11/11/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share

Dividends and Splits (last stock split was in 1997)

Last Earnings Report (Second Fiscal Quarter Ending on 1/30/22): Campbell Soup (CPB) SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. at $.72; non-GAAP at $.69 in line with the consensus; 

"Net sales in the quarter decreased 3% versus the prior year to $2.21 billion. Organic net sales, which exclude the impact from the sale of the Plum baby food and snacks business, decreased 2%. Pricing and sales allowances and lower promotional spending had a favorable 5% and 1% impact on net sales, respectively. This was more than offset by an 8% decrease in volume and mix as the company continued to navigate industry-wide labor and supply challenges."; 

Guides fiscal 2022 adjusted E.P.S. to $2.75 to $2.85 compared to $2.86 in the 2021 fiscal year

This report did not impress me.  

Prior Round-Trips: Item 3.B. Sold 5 CPB at $41.07 (8/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot $38.97)-Item # 1.E. Bought 5 CPB at $33.28-Used Commission Free Trade (6/4/18 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 CPB at $41 (8/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.18); Item # 3 Sold 50+ CPB at $49.73+(11/20/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.21); Item # 3 Sold 70 CPB at $35.79 (9/8/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $714.84) 

CPB Realized Gains to Date: $914.13

Current Position: None 

Enthusiasm Level: Non-existent 

Consider to Repurchase: at <$40 in small lots. 

J. Eliminated LYB in Vanguard Taxable - Sold 2 at $110.24: 

Quote: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A  

Earnings and revenues are highly cyclical for this chemical company. 

LYB Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

LYB SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Products & Technology | LyondellBasell

Reuters Key Metrics 

Profit Snapshot: $41.8

I am keeping for now the 4+ shares owned in my Fidelity account. My average cost per share is at $92.33: 

Price as of 5/13/22 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.13 per share ($4.52 annually per share)

Dividend History: Solid

The decline in total for 2013 compared to 2012 was due to a $2.75 special dividend paid in 2012. 

Yield at $92.33 =  4.9% 

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): 

Net Income = $1.32B or $4 per share, up from $3.18 in the 2021 first quarter.  

Consensus E.P.S. at $3.51

Revenues up 45% to $13.157 with the consensus at $12.71B.

Revenue Breakdown by Product Category: 

Page 9 of 10-Q

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Argus (5/9/22): Buy with a $133 PT

 S & P (5/15/22): 2 stars with a 12 month PT of $105. 

K. Added to NCZ - Bought 30 at $3.68; 20 at $3.49; 10 at $3.33: 

Quote: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II Overview - A CEF

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

NCZ SEC Filings 

Virtus AllianzGI Convertible &amp; Income Fund II (SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 1/31/22) This report contains information about several Virtus CEF's. See pages 40-49 and for NCZ) 

Sponsor's website: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Bought 50 NCZ at $4.68; 10 at $4.47; 10 at $4.28 (3/3/22 Post) 

Average Cost per share: $4.11 (130 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/16/22 after last add

Dividend: Monthly at $.0375 per share ($.45 annually)

NCZ Dividend History | Nasdaq

Significant ROC support. See, NCZ - CEF Connect (click "Distributions" tab)

The only way for this CEF to cover the dividend is through capital gains. 

Yield at New AC :  10.95%  (assumes continuation of current penny rate)  

Next Ex Dividend: 6/10/22

L. Restarted NBB - Bought 10 at $16.9: 

Quote: Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund Overview 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

This CEF owns taxable municipal bonds issued under the Build America program that expired in 2010. Build America Bonds (BABs) Those bonds generally have long maturities and consequently have gone down a lot in price over the past several months. The decline was aggravated by the fund's considerable leverage. Buying bonds using borrowed money that decline in price is not an optimal practice. The cost of borrowings is going up as the FED increases the FF rate.  

Sponsor's website: Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund (leverage at 40.98% as of 3/31/22) 

Credit Quality as of 4/30/22:  

NBB-CEF Connect 

SEC Filed Semiannual Report (period ending 9/30/21; leverage then at 37.43% using short term reverse purchase agreements, see page 37)

Holdings as of 12/31/21 - SEC Filing  (cost at $741+M, value then at 941.7+M)

Dividend: Monthly at $.108 per share ($1.296 annually)

NBB Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $16.9: 7.67%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/12/22

Prior Round-Trip Trades: +$516.65

Goal: Any total return, prior to any ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis, in excess of the dividend payments. 

Some Prior Discussions: Item # 1.F. Eliminated NBB - Sold 35 at $20.17 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot $53.53)-Item # 2.B. Restarted NBB-Bought 20 at $19.4, 5 at $18.5; 5 at $17.74 5 at $16.67 (4/11/20 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 NBB in Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $62.98)-Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $19.51 in a Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 10/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 2 Sold 100 NBB at $21.25 (Roth IRA)(2/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot $101.7)-Item # 1 Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 (6/14/14 Post); Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $20.73-ROTH IRA (6/8/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA (11/22/2011 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 (11/4/11 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 NBB at $19.24 in the Regular IRA (12/3/2010 Post)- Item # 5  Bought: 50 NBB at $18.4 (11/18/2010 Post)

M.  Added to EAI in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $23.66; 5 at $23; 5 at $22.73: 

Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)

52 week range: $22.62 to $25.75

Investment Category: Income generation with a First Mortgage Baby Bond, part of the Exchange Traded Bond category

I am attempting to increase my increase income during 2022 by 50% compared to 2021. Buying exchange traded bonds is just one means to accomplish that goal. 

Security: Prospectus

First Mortgage attaching to substantially all assets

Par Value = $25 

Issue Optional Redemption: On or after 9/1/21 at par plus accrued and unpaid interest 

Maturity: 9/1/2066, unless redeemed early at the issuer's option. 

Trades Flat (i.e. whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)

Interest Paid Quarterly 

Average Cost per share this Account: $24.16 (35 shares)

Yield at AC = 5.04%, rounded down. 

Next Ex Interest Date: 5/27/22

Credit Ratings: A/A2

Buy Discussions Item # 4.L. Added to EAI in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 3 at $24.3 (4/21/22 Post); Item # 3.H. Added 2 EAI in Fidelity Account at  $24.64 (4/14/22 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $20.43 (4/11/20 Post);Item # 5.A. Bought 10 EAI at $21.73-Used Commission Free Trade (12/16/18 Post); Item # 3 Bought 20 EAI at $23.68 - Used Commission Free Trade (10/7/18 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.12 (5/24/18 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 50 EAI at $23.85- ROTH IRA account (6/20/2017)

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.7-Used Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73-Used Commission Free Trade  (3/17/19 Post);

EAI trading profits to date: $102.14

Goal: Interest + any profit on the bonds. 

Purchase Restriction this account: Up to 100 shares with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.  

N. Added to PHG - Bought 1 at $24.95; 1 at $24.5:

Quotes: 

USDs: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR

Euros: Koninklijke Philips N.V. (Euronext Amsterdam)

ADR Ratio 1 for 1 

Website: Global home | Philips

SEC Filings

Royal Philips - 20-F 2021

Philips - United States | Philips

Philips successfully prices offering of Notes for EUR 2 billion (4/28/22)

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Large Cap Contrarian Value

Last Discussed: Item # 4.H. Added 1 PHG at $26.91; 1 at $26.2 (5/5/22 Post) I discussed the ugly first quarter report in that post. Royal Philips - 6-K

This stock has been in falling knife mode as previously discussed. Many of the problems creating the sell at whatever price mode appear to be temporary, which includes supply chain issues and a major recall of some PHG respironics products. So I am tiptoeing into a small ball type position recognizing that I do not know the future.     

Medical Device Recall Notification, Sleep and Respiratory Care devices | Philips

Update for the US on ongoing CPAP, BiPAP and Mechanical Ventilator field action - News | Philips

Respironics issues field safety notice V60 

1 year chart as of 5/13/22: 

52 week high at $57.65:  5/26/21 

Dividend: Annual  

The last dividend for the USD priced PHG was $.9641 per share.  

I will reinvest that dividend that will be paid on all shares currently owned. 

Average cost per share = $28.73

Yield at AC:  3.36%, rounded up.  (using the last USD annual payment of $.9641)

Last Ex Dividend: 5/12/22  

Phillips looks like it would be digestible as a takeover candidate. 

O. Added to FSPHX - Bought $50 at $24.29: 

Quote: Fidelity Select Health Care Portfolio Overview 

Currently rated 4 stars by Morningstar

Fidelity® Select Health Care (FSPHX) Portfolio | Morningstar

Sponsor's website:  Fidelity ® Select Health Care Portfolio 

Expense ratio = .68%

Ordinary dividends are nominal. In 2021, the total ordinary dividend was only $.041 per share. Capital gains distributions are far more significant at $.589, $2.887 and $2.688 per share in 2022 (so far), 2021 and 2020 respectively. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.