Wednesday, June 22, 2022

AMKBY, BDN, CALF, FTKLX, HBI, MDT, MPW, NCZ, ORCC, PHG, QYLD, SLG,

Economy:  

The FED raised the FF range 75 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75% Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement The Fed has done nothing to tame the inflation beast, but is only very slowly moving to an interest rate level that may have some impact. 

The FED also released its economic projections and dot plot: The Fed - June 15, 2022: FOMC Projections materials The FED is projecting that PCE inflation will fall to 2.7% next year, to 2.2% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. That will be accomplished by keeping the FF rate below 4% in 2023 and and at or below 3.375% in 2024: 

I am not aware of any historical basis for those anticipated future FF ranges effectively reining in inflation running at an 8% annual rate. The historical evidence, primarily from the 1966-1984 period, proves otherwise. This time may be different but I doubt it. 

It is more probable that problematic inflation will cure itself over time (e.g. massive decline in energy prices) than the FED causing any material decline. 

Consumer sentiment plunges to record low amid surging inflation | CNN BusinessSurveys of Consumers ("Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession.")

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What Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveal About Russia’s Brutal War Strategy - The New York Times This investigation provides even more proof of Russia's crimes against humanity and war crimes.  

Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, tells BBC “we did not invade Ukraine” and there is “no war” there - BBC News - YouTube Why would Lavrov make these claims to a western audience since it just proves that Russia's government is a 100% pure Orwellian state.  

Britain under pressure to crack down on corrupt Russian money that's infiltrated its economy - 60 Minutes - CBS News

59% of Fox News Viewers: Trump Acted Appropriately on Jan. 6 

Texas GOP Declares Biden Illegitimate President In addition, the republicans declared that Texas has the right to succeed from the United States. 

The platform adopted by the Texas GOP also called for the repeal of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.  Permanent-Platform 6-16-2022.pdfThe GOP is not a conservative party. 

GOP commission refuses to certify New Mexico primary vote  - POLITICOConspiracy theories erupt into screams and threats as New Mexico counties certify vote - Los Angeles Times One of the republican commissioners who refused to certify the vote in a  rural republican county was convicted for trespassing on Jan 6th. The New Mexico Supreme Court ordered the republicans to obey the law. After receiving that court order, 2 out of 3 republican commissioners decided to obey the law. The republicans are only trying to protect democracy or so they claim.  

GOP Senate candidate releases 'RINO hunting' ad aimed at fellow Republicans In Trump's party, someone who is actually a conservative is called a RINO. 

‘Avalanche’ of evidence proves Trump was engaged in a ‘multi-faceted criminal conspiracy’: legal expert - Raw Story I doubt that Donald will be charged with any of the crimes that he has committed. He is above the law. 

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1. Corporate Bonds

The corporate bonds discussed in Items A,B, and C below were bought as initial offerings sold at their $1,000 par value and were offered by Fidelity pursuant to its Corporate Notes Program. 

I am including some purchases made within the past week just to highlight the pop in interest rates since earlier this year.

While I am nibbling on intermediate term bonds, which I define as maturing in 3 to 10 years from the date of purchase, I am concentrating my buying in short term maturities as part of an interest rate risk mitigation strategy. 

If the interest rate outlook points to moderating inflation and the probability that rates are near a top range in 2023 or 2024, some of the proceeds from maturing short term bonds can be redirected into longer term ones. 

A. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 3% SU Maturing on 6/13/23:

Issuer: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) 

I do not own any common shares.

Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+ 

B. Bought 1 JP Morgan 3.25% SU Maturing on 5/13/24

Issuer: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 

I own a few common shares. 

Credit Ratings: A2/A-

C. Bought 1 Dow Chemical 3.95% SU Maturing on 5/15/27


Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Dow Inc. 

Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/22 

I own a few common shares, somewhere in the 5 to 10 share range.  

FINRA Page: Bond Detail Dow Chemical will frequently sell bonds directly to retail investors using intermediaries like Fidelity. For this bond, the amount outstanding is only $1.067M which means that it is an illiquid issue that probably can not be sold prior to redemption.

FINRA does not link the prospectuses filed for Dow's retail notes. Dow Chemical will generally reserve the right to redeem at par value a few months after issuance which is the case for this note

I am just replacing one of the Dow Chemical bonds that the company recently redeemed early as part of my diversification strategy. In this context, diversification includes (1) interest rate risk mitigation through a ladder strategy and (2) credit risk mitigation which includes limiting my dollar exposure to each issuer and owning so many different bonds that I have created what amounts to a diversified investment grade U.S. bond fund. 

DOW Analyst Estimates 

Credit Ratings: Baa1/A

This order was placed in early May. I would not now buy this bond for less than a 4.5% yield. 

D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/24 at 99.125


Purchased on 5/17/22  

YTM at TC = 2.629%

Current Yield at TC = 2.14%, rounded down. 

E. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/24 at 98.246


I now own 4 in my Schwab taxable account and 1 in a RI. 

Purchased on 6/16/22 

This is the same bond discussed in Item 1.D. above. 

YTM at Total Cost = 3.195%, up from 2.629% for the 5/17/22 purchase. 

Current Yield at TC = 2.16%, rounded down.   

The lower price compared to the 5/17/22 will primarily impact the YTM rather than the current yield.  

F. Bought 1 Treasury 1.75% Coupon Maturing on 5/15/23 at 99.021

Purchased on 6/17/22

I now own 3 bonds including 1 in a RI account. 

I am discussing this purchase out of time order to highlight the rise in short term yields since March 2022.  The reasons for buying treasuries in 1 bond lots are interest rate risk mitigation in a rising rate environment and an insignificant yield difference compared to buying more. 

When I started to buy treasuries in my Schwab account in April, I knew that interest rates would rise and the purchases would be paid for out of a Schwab sweep account that has a .01% yield then and now. I did not know how fast or high short term treasury yields would rise.   

YTM at Total Cost = 2.8259%

Current Yield at TC =  1.7673%

The prior purchase was made on 4/8/22 at 99.7606, creating at that price a 1.972% YTM. But there is more to the interest rate risk calculation than just comparing YTMs. The return from the broker sweep account used as a funding source has to be taken into consideration.  

G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/23 at 98.709

This bond was purchased on 6/17/22

YTM at Total Cost = 3.074%

Current Yield at TC = 2.28%, rounded up. 

The prior purchase in this account was at 99.797 on 4/6/22. 

I now own 2 bonds. 

H. Bought 1 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/2013 at 98.1329

Purchased on 6/21/22 

YTM at Total Cost  = 2.979%

Current Yield at TC = 1.4

The prior purchase in this taxable account was at  99.2217 (3/25/22)

I now own 3 bonds including 1 in a RI account. 

I. Bought 1 Northern States Power 2.6% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/23 at a Total cost of 99.556

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of  Xcel Energy Inc.  (XEL) 

I discussed this purchase in a 6/16/22 comment

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus)

Credit Ratings: Aa3/A

YTM at Total Cost = 3.102%

Current Yield at TC = 2.61%

Make Whole Expires on 11/15/22: 

Issuer may call at par value + accrued interest on or after 11/15 to the maturity date in May 2023.

This purchase replaces the Northern States 2.15% first mortgage bond that would have matured on 8/15/22 but was redeemed at par value on 5/19/22: 

Profit Snapshot: +$15.83 

This early call of a lower yielding first provides relevant information on whether Northern States will call the 2023 bond early. The issue involves which treasury maturity to use as the appropriate comparison. If Northern States calls the bond on 11/15/23, the price that I paid is too low; or about right with a redemption on 5/15/23, both as of the date of purchase. 

J. Early Redemption of Public Service of Colorado 2.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/22

Profit Snapshot: +$17.48

Public Service of Colorado is another wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel. The make whole provision for this bond expired on 3/15/22. Bond Detail-Prospectus Linked On or after 3/15/22, 6 months prior to maturity,  the issuer could redeem at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.  

2. Small Ball

I am currently limiting my stock purchases to the amount of cash flow received from interest and dividend payments. Cash flow from interest payments will gradually rise to at least a $30K annual rate sometime in 2023 and more probable than not as high as $40K based on current interest rate trends. 

I am buying dividend paying stocks and CEFs in small lots, mostly adding to existing positions as I average down.  

The decline so far in stock indexes is a multiple reset driven primarily by rising interest rates and the related issue of problematic inflation. 

An economic recession that leads to an earnings recession could accelerate the S & P 500 decline to another 15% to 30%, depending on the severity IMO. I do not view a recession as inevitable but the odds of one developing within the next 18 months is high IMO.  

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment- St. Louis Fed

In this post, I am discussing mostly small ball average downs in stocks where more substantive discussions can be found in recent posts which I link. 

YTD Total Returns through 6/21/22: 

SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): -20.45% 

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): -30.87%

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): -24.06%

First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN): -43.74%

Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLK): -26.37%

First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY): -37.42% 

ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN):  -41.2%

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): -25.01% 

Volatility Indexes: 

CBOE Volatility Index- S&P 500

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index

CBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index

A. Bought 2 MDT at $88.5

Quote:  Medtronic PLC  (MDT)

MDT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MDT SEC Filings

52 week high: $135.89

I recently discussed MDT. Item # 2.G. Started MDT - Bought 1 at $99.5; 1 at $97.87, 1 at $95.85  (6/9/22 Post) 

New average cost per share = $94.13  (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.68 per share

Yield at AC per share = 2.889

Next Ex Dividend: 6/23/22

MDT's revenues will not be materially impacted by a recession. 

I will continue buying in 1 or 2 share lots.  

B. Added to HBI - Bought 5 at $9.79




Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Contrarian Value



New Average cost per share: $13.36 (70+ shares) 
52 week high at $20.74

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share

I am currently reinvesting the dividend based on valuation. 

Yield at New AC  = 4.49%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/9/22

I am just averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares, which is, needless to say, an extremely cautious approach.  

C. Bought 1 QYLD at $17.16


Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview

"The Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index."

Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Bought 2 QYLD at $19.47; 1 at $18.57; 3 at $17.66 - Schwab Account (5/19/22 Post) 

Sponsor's website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF

Expense Ratio = .6%

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars, recently reduced from 4 stars)

Investment category: Monthly Income Generation

Average cost per share this account = $20.32 (26 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate 

Yield at AC this account: 11.57% (using the $2.35 per share paid in 2021 which excludes a $.499 per share special distribution sourced from short term capital gains that went ex dividend on 12/30/21. So far in 2022 it looks like the dividend will be at a lower annual rate.) 

Last Ex Dividend: Tuesday, 6/21/22

D. Bought 1 PHG at $20.49:

Quote: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR

52 week high: $50.71

SEC Filings

Website: Global home | Philips

Royal Philips - 20-F 2021

I recently discussed the last earnings report. Item # 4.H. Added 1 PHG at $26.91; 1 at $26.2 (5/5/22 Post)Royal Philips - 6-K

Last Discussed: Item # 3.N.  Bought 1 PHG at $24.95; 1 at $24.95 (5/19/22 Post) 

1 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend


Investment Category: Contrarian Value 

Average cost per share: $27.83 (10+ shares)

Dividend: Annual 

The last dividend was $.9641 per ADR share which went ex dividend on 5/12. 

Yield at AC: 3.46%  (using last annual payment)

The odds of a good total return is much higher at 10 years than at one. Or put another way, I do not expect my PHG position to turn positive within the next 2 years given its hopefully short term problems which I have previously discussed here. This is the flip side of Batesian statistical analysis that I discussed in a March 2009 post when applied to unrealized gains of long term positions. 

 E. Bought 5 NCZ at $3.04

Quote: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II Overview

Sponsor's Website: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II

NCZ SEC Filings

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 1/31/22)

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Leverage: Yes, substantial at 50.5% as of 6/17/22

Last DiscussedItem # 3.K. Bought 30 NCZ at $3.68; 20 at $3.49; 10 at $3.33 (5/19/22 Post) 

Data Date of 6/16/22 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $3.46

Closing Market Price: $2.98

Discount: -13.87%

Sourced: NCZ - CEF Connect

Average cost per share: $4.07 (135+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.0375 per share ($.45 annually)

Substantial ROC support. 

I started to reinvest the dividend in May based on the current discount and to average down randomly.  

Yield at $4.07 11.06% (assumes continuation of current penny rate)

Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/22 

F. Bought 5 MPW at $14.4

Quote: Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)

MPW SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

Website: MPT | Home: At the Very Heart of Healthcare

MPW - Investor Relations

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

New Average Cost per share$17.29 (70 shares)

I am averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually)

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) - Dividend History

Yield at AC = 6.71%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/15/22

I discussed MPW in my last post. Item # 4.A. Bought 5 MPW at $17.68; 5 at $17.55; 5 at $17.21; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $15.8; 5 at $150.05 (6/15/22 Post) 

I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in this post: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 MPW at $17.97 (5/12/22 Post) 

G. Bought 5 BDN at  $9.27-Schwab Account

Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)- an Office REIT 

SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report

Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.E. Restarted BDN - Bought 10 at $10.79 (5/26/22 Post) 

I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that recent post. 

Last EliminationItem # 2.F. Eliminated BDN - Sold 15+ at $13.51 and 20 at $13.5 in Schwab Account  (1/7/22 Post)

Average cost per share$10.28  (15 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)

BDN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at new AC per share = 7.39%, rounded down. 

Next Ex Dividend: 7/5/22 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.  I will switch to 10-20 share lots at below $9. 

Maximum Position: 100 shares 

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.K. Sold 1+ BDN at $13.75-All Shares Bought with Dividends in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)($3.3); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 BDN at $12.9 in Schwab Taxable Account (3/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.72); Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4); Item # 7 Sold 158+ BDN at $15.28 (5/24/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.31); Item # 2 Sold 100 BDN at $12.38-ROTH IRA (profit snapshot = $100.5)

BDN Realized Gains to Date = $440.52

H. Bought 1 CALF at $33.5

Quote: Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: CALF | Pacer ETFs

Last Discussed: Item # 2.O.  Bought 1 CALF at $37.52; 2 at $36.48 (5/26/22 Post) 

Average Cost per share = $40.84  (15 shares) 

I. Bought 1 SLG at $48

Quote: SL Green Realty Corp.

SLG SEC Filings

SL Green Realty Corp Profile | Reuters

Website: Homepage - SL Green - NYC's Largest Commercial Landlord

Properties 

Investor Relations 

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Monthly Income Generation 

Chart: Bear Market Trend starting in 2015, marked by rapid and significant percentage declines in March 2000 and March-June 2021. 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 2.N. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $62.25, 1 at $59.95 (5/26/22 Pos) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. 

Last DiscussedItem # 4.F. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $57.48; 1 at $56.25; 1 at $54.2, 1 at $52.7, 1 at $50.4, 1 at $49.35 (6/15/22 Post) 

New Average Cost per share: $60.61 (15+ shares)

Dividends: Monthly at $.3108 per share ($3.7296 annually)

SL Green Realty Corp. Announces Common and Preferred Stock Dividends

Dividend History | SL Green Realty Corp.

Yield at New AC: 6.15%, rounded down. 

Next Ex Dividend: 6/29/22 

Debt levels and refinancing costs are probably the main concerns underlying the recent price decline. 

The decline in March 2020 was caused by the pandemic. 

The most general concern weighing on price IMO is the trend toward working at home. 

Debt levels and Maturities:

Sourced: SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 3/31/22 at page 22 I own 2 SLG 3.25% SU bonds that mature in October. The outstanding principal amount is $500M. 

Included in the previous table is SLG's unconsolidated share of joint venture debt based on its ownership interest: 

Page 23, Supplemental Linked Above

I will continue to average down in 1 or 2 share lots. Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share and does not have to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

J. Bought 5 ILPT at $13.1


Quote: Industrial Logistics Properties Trust

ILPT SEC Filings

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Last DiscussedItem # 4.K. Bought 5 ILPT at $17.3; 5 at $17; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.25; 5 at $15.63, Bonds & Politics: BOTZ, BOX, CL, ETSY, EXEL, FPF, ILPT, IRM, NYCB, PHG, PYPL, PYS, SBRA, WIW, XOM

I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in this post. Item # 6.I. Added to ILPT - Bought 5 at $19.69; 5 at $17.65 (4/28/22 Post)SEC Filed Press Release

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 ("As of March 31, 2022, our portfolio was comprised of 412 consolidated properties containing approximately 59,736,000 rentable square feet, including 226 buildings, leasable land parcels and easements containing approximately 16,729,000 rentable square feet of primarily industrial lands located on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, or our Hawaii Properties, and 186 properties containing approximately 43,007,000 rentable square feet of industrial properties located in 38 other states, or our Mainland Properties, which includes 93 properties owned by a consolidated joint venture arrangement in which we own a 61% equity interest. As of March 31, 2022, we also owned a 22% equity interest in an unconsolidated joint venture which owns 18 properties located in 12 states totaling approximately 11,726,000 rentable square feet.")

Management: External  

The last acquisition was Monmouth REIT that significantly increased ILPT's debt, an unfavorable outcome when interest rates are rising. This press release discusses the financing for this all cash purchase. Industrial Logistics Properties Trust Completes Acquisition of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation  

Chart: Bear Market Trend since topping at $28.66 in October 2021. 

There are 2 primary reasons IMO for the price decline in my opinion: (1) the price paid for Monmouth and the use of short term debt to finance that acquisition and (2) concerns about how high interest rates will go in order to tame problematic inflation, a concern that is broadly applicable to REITs and stocks in general. The question is whether the 50%+ decline from the 52 week high more than compensates for those risks in light of the dividend yield and Price/Cash Flow.   

New Average cost per share = $17.47 (85+ shares)

I will round up to 100+ shares in 1 more purchase somewhere below $13. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 per share)

I have turned on dividend reinvestment based on valuation. 

Yield at AC per share = 7.56%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: 4/22/22

K. Bought 5 AMKBY at $11.87

Quotes: 

USD: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR

DKK: MAERSK.B (Denmark)Reuters Profile Page 

52 week high: $19.14

ADR Ratio: 1 ADR = .005 Ordinary

Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 4.B. Bought 5 AMKBY at $15.25; 5 at $14.28; 5 at $12.9 (4/21/22 Post)  

Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Large Cap Valuation

TTM P/E as of 6/17/22 = 1.982 

A. P. Moller Maersk PE Ratio This calculation uses the symbol AMKAF which is the ordinary shares priced in DKK. Another website has the TTM P/E at 2.24. A. P. Moller Maersk A/S PE Ratio (TTM) & PE Ratio (TTM) Charts - AMKBF | GuruFocus The current TTM P/E makes sense only if earnings are about to collapse IMO. 

New Average Cost per share = $14.26 (35 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/17/22 after add 

Dividend: Paid annually. The dividend is based on the prior year's profits. The last ADR dividend was $1.85 per share that went ex on 3/16/22. 

Yield: A dividend yield calculation is not possible given the large annual variations. The 2022 dividend was unusually large at US$1.85 per share.  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22):  


Interim Report Q1 2022 (click PDF link)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.I. Eliminated AMKBY - Sold 25 at $16.98 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $80.

I do not have access to any analyst reports. 

L. Bought 5 ORCC at $12.20:  

Quote: Owl Rock Capital Corp. - An Externally Managed BDC 

ORCC SEC Filings

Owl Rock Capital Corporation - Investor Relations

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.F. Added to ORCC-Bought 5 at $11.65 (11/13/20 Post)Item # 1.J. Added 4 ORCC at $12.02 (9/12/20 Post)Item # 4.E. Started ORCC-Bought 10 at $12.67; 1 at $12.59; 5 at $12.27 and 5 at $11.95 (6/27/2020 Post)

2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 30 and ends at page 64)

New Average cost per share this account: $12.24 (35 Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/19/22 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share (regular only)

Owl Rock Capital Corporation-Dividends

After selling shares purchased with dividends, I turned off dividend reinvestment. Item # 2.K. Sold 1.658 ORCC at $14.17-Fidelity Taxable (5/28/2021 Post) 

Yield at AC = 10.13%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/29/22  

Net Asset Value per share history: 

3/31/22:  $14.88

12/31/21: $15.08  

12/31/20: $14.74

12/31/19:  $15.24

IPO was in July 2019, priced to the public at $15.5 per share. Prospectus 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) SEC Filed Press Release  

NII per share at $.31, with consensus at $.331 per Fidelity; 

Net asset value per share = $14.88, down from $15.08 as of 12/31/21; 

"As of March 31, 2022, based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 74.0% first lien senior secured debt investments, 14.7% second lien senior secured debt investments, 2.1% unsecured debt investments, 2.3% investment funds and vehicles, 1.9% preferred equity investments, and 5.0% common equity investments"; 

"As of March 31, 2022, 98.8% of our debt investments based on fair value in our portfolio were at floating rates";  

Declared regular quarterly dividend of $.31 per share

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (summary of investments starts at page 4)

Company risk assessment of loans: 

Page 114, 10/Q 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis.   

M. Bought 5 FPF at $17.82-Schwab Taxable

Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview

The fund owns mostly equity preferred stocks but also has some exposure to exchange traded bonds. 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation  

Sponsor's Website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)

FPF SEC Filings

FPF-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

Leveraged: Yes, substantial at 32.2% as of 6/17/22 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.D. Added 5 FPF at $18.82s (5/26/22 Post)Item # 4.G. Added 5 FPF at $20.44; 4 at $20.15 (5/5/22 Post)

FPF- CEF Connect

Last SEC Filed Report on Holdings (as of 1/31/22)

Average cost per share: $20.96 (123+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.1275 ($1.53 annually)

The rise in borrowing costs will make it more likely that the dividend will have to be cut as the spread between that cost and the income generated by owned securities contracts. 

I am currently reinvesting the dividend given the discount to net asset value per share and as a means to randomly and regularly average down at market prices. 

Yield at AC per share: 7.3%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/1/22

Sell DiscussionsItem # 2 Sold 103 FBF at $22.03-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot $19.48); Item # 4- Sold 100 FPF at $22.83 (7/5/14 Post)(profit snapshot: $56.55) 

N. Added $50 to FTKLX at $10.57

Quote: Fidelity Disruptive Technology Fund  Overview 

Average cost per share at $12.81 (21+ shares)

FTKLX Portfolio | Morningstar

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

25 comments:

  1. So, the Fed's interpretation is that by keeping the Fed rate low at under 4%, that will bring down the 8-9% inflation.

    There's nothing about that which makes sense. Maybe they mean that inflation will fix itself and they're not going to fully take away the punch bowl because that would upset the economy as we've come to know it.

    That feels like a rutterless ship. They're steering for what happens on the other side of the iceberg and not for the iceberg we're headed for.

    But the market started off the morning rallying off of it.

    ---

    In google's stream of articles on my cellphone, is this about Samsung. They're not selling mid-range cells well. It blames consumer worries about the economy. So high ends are selling and entry points, but not the "middle-class" ones.

    I would still blame not putting their best reviewed mid-range out in the USA, so one wouldn't buy new, if not really needing to.

    https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-stuck-50-million-unsold-phones/

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    1. Land: The FED's guidance has the FF rate topping out below 4% in 2023-2034 with inflation returning to 2% as a result. There is no historical data that supports that forecast given the 8+% annual inflation rate. Even if the Fed knows that is the case, stating clearly that it will keep raising rates until inflation recedes back to 2%, saying so would spook the market and probably ensure a recession.

      The economy can adapt to measured FF increases that top out a 3.5% to 4% range, which are benign historically. The economy benefits by consumers having more disposable income generated by their savings. Corporations will start to pay something approaching a normal rate for borrowings and that will crimp their profit margins a bit. The government shares some of those increased interest costs by allowing interest deductions.

      And, nominal interest rates for treasuries and investment grade corporate debt still produce negative real rate of returns before taxes. So in that sense, borrowing is still really cheap at anywhere near the current annual inflation rates.

      The issue is more of what happens when and if CPI is running at a 8%+ annual rate, or even close to that number, late next year with the FED at its upside target range. I think that is what is worrying the Stock Jocks now.

      I bought another $10K of investment grade corporate debt today that matures in 2024. Some of the YTMs are close to 4%. An example which will be discussed in late September is a 3.5% Ventas SU that matues on 6/24/24 at a 99.239 total cost, creating a YTM of 3.938%. Rated at BBB+/Baa1.

      https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C807717&symbol=VTR4799813

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  2. On top of that, the Fed lost credibility. They were definitely not going to raise 75%, and then next opportunity, they raised by .75%

    I don't see what they think is going to lower inflation.

    We're going to have a recession. And it's going to take a while for all of this stuff to unravel. And then another while for it all to ravel itself back together again. Powel still probably be debating whether there's a recession coming or not at that point.

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    1. Land: This is a link to a FF rate graph going back to 1955 which highlights the extremely abnormal FED monetary policies that started in 2002, with a brief return to somewhat normal policies in 2004-2007 and the back to extremely abnormal in 2008 to the present.

      https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

      I would highlight the period starting in 1968, when annual CPI was at +4.3%, to 1982 which was the prior peak at 6.1% until recent numbers.

      Inflation started to pick up steam in 1970s, yet a FF at over 5% did nothing to restrain it until Paul Volcker took the rate to 20+%.

      I am not saying that a FF rate of over 10% will be necessary this time but merely that there is no reason to believe that a 3.5% FF rate will do anything to restrain and reverse inflationary pressures.

      Compare the FF chart with annual CPI numbers during that period:

      https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-

      For reasons that are impossible to rationally fathom, investors place reliance on the FED's predictions. History proves that this is not a rational, fact based opinion.

      I would point out that the FED projected a 2.6% PCE inflation rate in 2022 on 12/15/21, falling to 2.3% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

      https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm

      As of 6/15/22, the PCE inflation prediction for 2022 was at 5.2% and falling to 2.3% in 2024.
      https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20220615.htm

      That prediction can be accurate provided inflation fixes itself by 2024. The Dot plot shows 14 FED member believing the FF will be at 3.375% or lower in 2024.

      I suspect that the reason for believing in the FED's predictive power is the human need for certainty about the future rather than the FED actually having a clue about what will happen.

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    2. That funds chart gives such a clear visual. The rate's been hugging the ground for so long. It's not even up to pre-covid point yet.

      No wonder it's called candy or punch bowl. It's the addiction to a tool that makes things easier. But it's borrowed. Like spending all your savings, so you have none for rainy day (cough, now) weather.

      My knowledge of the fed are articles about how wrong they've been nearly every time. Adding to or being the trigger for the recession or difficult periods (such as high inflation). Over and over I hear economists don't know anything about predicting the market, which I've come to understand is a comment on the Fed's lack of predictive skills.

      I imagine human need for certainty could be the reason their predictions are absorbed. I don't have a better reason. Accuracy sure isn't one.

      Even now, there's too much upbeat talk from the Fed.

      It's possible inflation will self correct by year end or mid-next year (possible, not probable). BUT it will have already set off a chain of events. So that chain has to be assessed. Doesn't seem to be a hint of that happening, rather than hope it will all be avoided.

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    3. Land: Humans want certainty about the future even though the future cannot be predicted with any certainty.

      When doing asset allocations, I start with the simple proposition that humans are not omnipotent beings.

      The Fed is frequently way off in its predictions, even when the prediction is for the following quarters or next year. That is to be expected since the future is unknowable though many believe in their ability to predict accurately.

      What will interest rates actually be in 2024? I can only say that the risks are elevated that they will be much higher than now, while recognizing that certain events could lead to them being lower even if there is no large change in the current inflation numbers. Central banks have proven that interest rates can be manipulated far below the inflation rate. If there is a recession in 2024, the Fed may respond, as it has in the past, by reverting back to QE and ZIRP irrespective of hot inflation numbers.

      I recognize that the future is uncertain and basically unknowable, though some informed guesses are better than others. That uncertainty will cause me to use a bond ladder approach and to take other precautions and risk mitigation strategies.

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  3. I noticed this morning that the Vanguard Federal Money Market fund currently has a 1.33% 7 day SEC yield. When the FED raises the FF rate by 75 basis points next month, which is the currently consensus forecast, the yield on that MM will probably go over 2% shortly thereafter. I will probably draw down sweep account MM funds in my Fidelity and Schwab accounts going forward and just leave the cash in my Vanguard account as is. The cash weighting in that account is at 61%.

    The similar Fidelity Government MM fund currently has a seven day yield of .97%. Schwab's sweep account recently went from .01% to .15%.

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    1. Yay. Better rate on Roth IRA without having to move funds or do anything!

      Ameritrade is at .1%.

      I think my 401k bond fund doesn't pay a div or interest. It's yet another reason to at least convert to an IRA, not at that firm. It's held by NetBenefits by Fidelity.

      I'm only getting interest at a net 8-2% so negative 6% real gains!

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  4. I noticed today that some of the 3 month CD rates offered through Fidelity now exceed the 3 month T bill rate which is currently at 1.68%.

    I purchased 2 Valley National 1.8% CDs that mature on 9/30/22. Unlike in the past, I will not be discussing CD purchases in the blog.

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    1. CDs need to exceed T bills by the amount of state & local tax since Tbills are exempt, if I understand them correctly.

      3 months is nice and short, and into sept/oct will be right on time if the market declines. I haven't been looking at CDs for a while. Well looking, wincing, and ignoring.

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    2. Land: When a treasury bill, note or bond is owned directly, a state cannot tax the interest. For those living in a state with an income tax, which applies to non-exempt interest payments, the yield of the corporate bond needs to be adjusted down to reflect the difference in state tax treatment.


      In some states, the tax treatment can become more complicated when the interest is paid into a fund and then the fund pays dividends.

      While most states allow that part of the dividend sourced from treasury interest payments to be excluded from interest income, some states, NY being an example, require a threshold percentage of treasury interest as a percent of the total to be exceeded before any of fund’s dividends sourced from treasury interest can be treated as exempt. I am not sure that is legal under Federal law.

      There is no state income taxes in Tennessee so I do not need to make any adjustments.

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  5. The treasury will auction 3 and 6 month treasury bills on Monday as well as a two year treasury note. I will be participating in all three auctions. These are my first auction purchases in several years. I can buy treasuries online without paying a commission in my Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard accounts.

    The two year note closed last Friday at a 3.04% yield:

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206

    I became far more aggressive last week in purchasing fixed income securities, primarily in my Schwab and Interactive broker accounts.

    For example, I bought 10 Georgia Power 2.1% SU bonds maturing on 7/30/23, and now own 12. The YTM at my 98.884 total cost is 3.149% compared to 2.83% for a 1 year T Bill or .319% spread to the T bill which is about right IMO for this quality bond and a 1 year/1 month maturity. The difference in income generation over 1 year is about $31.9 for $10K. This makes sense only when applied to a large and growing bond allocation. At $1M, the difference is $3,190. And even that would not make much sense going with the corporate bond if there was a realistic chance that one or more purchases would default or I had to pay state income taxes on the corporate bond interest. Tennessee does not tax income and I have no concerns at all about Georgia Power defaulting.

    Georgia Power Bond
    https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C874353&symbol=SO4934387

    I am purchasing a large number of treasuries, mostly in the secondary market and at auctions starting next week.

    The highest YTM bond purchased last week that matues in 2024 was 2 Oracle 2.4% SU maturing on 9/15/23 at a 98.7 total cost, creating at that price a 3.5% YTM (10:07 trade):

    https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C656839&symbol=ORCL4379431

    The spread to treasury for a 2 year Baa1/BBB+ rated corporate bond will expand to around .5%-.8%. Some at the top end of that range would be considered good buys when the actual credit risk is no different, or even better than those with lower spreads. This is all relative. None would be good buys of course when the 2 treasury was over 15% in 1981:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2

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    1. So that .5 - .8% spread between Baa1/BBB+ corporate bond and 2year treasury tends to be the spread no matter how high the interest rates have gone? At 15% rates, CDs were good buys too.

      You've described it before. How do you calculate YTM (yield to maturity) from the bond's rate and purchase price and time to maturity?

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    2. Land: The corporate yield spread to treasuries will not be a static number. To clarify what I said earlier, the spreads are average ranges at the current time. Concerns about credit risk can widened the percentage spreads, which was the case in 2008 and March 2020 as examples. A lack of concern about Baa1/BBB+ credit risks can narrow spreads. A significant change in the nominal treasury yield can impact the spread as well which could simply be related to increased credit risks from substantially higher interest rates.

      Even when a bond is rated Baa1/BBB+ the pricing may indicate that the Bond Ghouls assign a higher or lower rating. And sometimes a higher than normal spread simply means that the bond is being temporarily mispriced compared to others with the same credit rating and maturities.

      IMO, an example was a purchase that I made last Friday when I bought more of the 2.5% Dominion Gas SU maturing on 11/15/24, which closed at a 4.044% YTM:

      https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C864561&symbol=D4914005

      That bond is rated Baa1/A. I would go with the A rating. That issuer is solid and made more so in that the company is now part of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett is now going to allow it to default.

      A YTM calculation has several variables include the coupon, price and time to maturity. There is also an assumption that the coupon interest rate can be reinvested at the same rate.

      The YTM will be below the coupon rate when the bond is priced over par value and higher when the price is lower than par.

      When bonds are bought at a discount to par value, the YTM includes the profit when the bond is paid off at maturity.

      The YTM will change based on the time to maturity. The YTM is an annual yield number.

      If the issuer calls the bond early, the YTM will change compared to the original number when purchased.

      Some brokers will provide what is called a yield to worst number which assumes the bond will be called at par value when the issuer is permitted to do so. Most issuers reserve the right to call at par value within 1 to 3 months of maturity.

      When the issuer exercises an optional redemption with a make whole premium payment to par value, that will increase the YTM compared to when the bond was purchased since the profit number is greater than was built into the original YTM calculation. I have lost a large number of bonds to optional redemptions with significant make whole premium payments.

      Delete
  6. Just had a talk with a group of friends. One admonished me that I shouldn't have 1/2 out of the market because it's losing rapidly to inflation for years. I pointed out it's a few months so far, not years, and it's not a good market entry point. And it's why I have 1/2 still in. I do agree with his opening stn't that the Fed needs to "put the brakes on" (on inflation) faster.

    He followed it up with a mention that he'd lost a lot in the market so now uses a Chase account advisor. Makes me wonder how he lost it.

    I've missed growth opportunities. I've never lost a lot.

    A lot of the debate centered on, that with all these people jumping to other jobs... why isn't anyone with good degrees, expertise, in technology or adjacent to tech... not able to find much to interview for? Meanwhile, one owner of a tech company is watching talent chomping to jump around.

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    1. Land: The correct number to use when evaluating a person's real rate of return is not the CPI or PCE price inflation but a person's personal inflation rate, a far harder number to calculate.

      My PCE inflation rate is extremely low and actually went down significantly when I transitioned away from an Obamacare health insurance plan to Medicare, a far superior health insurance plan that saved me about $600 per month when that transition occurred. That was more than 5 years ago.

      I feel inflationary impacts primarily when I have to make a large purchase like last year when I had to replace my air/heating unit or when I next have to replace my roof. I have two cars, a 1987 Mercedes and a 2007 Saturn Aura. If I bought a new Mercedes, I would experience a massive surge in my car expense. Overall, I would estimate that my inflation rate, based on how I actually spend money, is around 2%. At a 4% weighted average annual income rate on my total portfolio, I will spend significantly less than 1/2 of the income which is the most relevant number for me.

      Delete
  7. Do you know what friday's 3% rallies were about - if they were about anything?

    There's a witching day coming, was that it? Margin rates are going up. That's got to be squeezing some into selling shorts and others into buying to cover.

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    1. Land: The last triple witching day was on 6/17.

      I can not point to anything rational and concrete to explain the rally last Friday or any other rally during the current dominant downtrend.

      There will be large investors who will start to buy more aggressively during a bear market. Some technical analysts thought that a more prolonged rally would occur when it looked like the S & P would close over 3895 or thereabouts.

      There may be a growing realization that a 3.5% FF rate in 2023 and 2024 is not likely to strangle the economy and does have benefits for desirable increases in consumer spending that are sourced, not from increased debt, but by increases in interest income from savings.

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    2. I remember during Stable Vix times, noticing high random bear market rally days could be.

      This must be that kind of thing.

      There's a constant hope of catching the bottom...follow by fear of missing the big rally into recovery.

      Today was big but nothing like Friday. But between yesterday and today, market's staying in place pretty well while getting a lot of exercise.

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  8. The 2 year treasury note was auctioned today with a 3% coupon and at a 99.838282 price, creating a yield of 3.084%.

    The 6 month treasury bill was auctioned at an "investment rate" (coupon equivalent) of 2.567%.

    The price was 98.736111. The difference between 100 and 98.736111 is the interest, taxable in the year that the T bill matures which will be on 12/29/22. If I bought at the next auction, the interest income will be taxable in 2023. I have done in the past some income shifting using 3 to 1 year treasury bills when I believed my income would be less in the following year than in the current year. That will most likely not be the case for me in 2023 compared to 2022 since I currently expect a substantial increase in interest and dividend income for next year.

    As rates continue to move up, I am becoming more aggressive in buying bonds maturing in 2023 and 2024.

    The next 1 year T bill auction will be on 7/12 and I will be participating in that one. I will skip the 13 and 26 week bill auctions until August after participating today.

    The odds are currently at 93.9% that the FED will increase the FF rate 75 basis points when it meets on 7/27, which would put the FF range between 2.25% to 2.5%.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

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  9. There may have been some comments that somehow bypassed my comment moderation filter that were obviously spam. Several of the same ads for a service were apparently sent almost simultaneously. I have deleted those that may have been published without my permission.

    ++

    Barron's published an article earlier today titled "Bargain Hunting? The Case for Bonds, Not Stocks."

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-yields-buy-stocks-51656096185?mod=hp_LATEST

    With the torrid rise in yields, investors pulled a net of $170B out of bond funds in 2022 through May. That is to be expected. The author notes that short term investment grade bonds can be bought with 4% yields and that is the case now for many 2024 maturities. For someone like me, there is no reason to take much of an equity risk short term investment grade bonds maturing in 2 years have 4%+ YTMs.

    The Stock Jocks are currently experiencing another anxiety attack after the Conference Board released its June consumer confidence report. The index is at its lowest level since February 2021.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/consumer-confidence-falls-again-in-june-301576912.html

    While I few this kind of survey as marginally relevant, the key IMO is what consumers actually do rather than what a sample says about how they feel.

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    1. I mentioned a bond ladder to my dad and he didn't flinch. He said, "well you think I could earn more than zero?"

      It's an interesting point to take one's own inflation into account.

      My housing is set though I'd like to move. Food and household is costing more. Travel and gas of course. If rates ever exceed inflation, that will be a good and much more normal day.

      The hearing today is something else. I'm not sure this is even the worst they have have.

      A theory:
      It appears very possibly they were getting a crowd to take out Pence and Pelosi, and get Chuck Grassley to certify (not) the election votes.

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    2. Land: The largest component in CPI is "owners equivalent rent", weighted at a 32+% weighting.

      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm

      That is an irrelevant number for me, having lived in the same house, owned free and clear, since 1982.

      If I do not buy anything in one of the detailed categories listed in the CPI table, which is the case for the vast majority of them, I do not experience the increase in prices.

      Still, the most important number for me is how much relatively risk free income that can be generated compared to my expenses. The fact that I can now generate far more income through buying bonds than I will spend is the most relevant number for me.

      ++
      Trump is a psychopath. Sean Hannity reportedly called him "batshit crazy".

      https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/sean-hannity-fox-news-staffers-feel-trapped-in-trump-cult

      Cassidy's testimony from yesterday regarding Trump's behavior is consistent with that diagnosis, but more evidence is not needed to draw the only possible conclusion about his mental illnesses. And that is relevant now IMO primarily because 74+M voters wanted him to serve another 4 years, which shows just how far the nation has gone down the rabbit hole.

      If more people corroborate her testimony on a few key points, Trump may face a criminal indictment.

      If anyone else had engaged in the same conduct, a criminal trial would be inevitable and justified.

      A prosecutor would want an air tight case against Trump before asking a grand jury to indict. By air tight, I mean so persuasive that even committed Trumpsters on a jury would vote to convict.

      Some of the proof may be acquired by grand jury subpoenas that force recalcitrant witnesses to testify.

      Some will assert the 5th Amendment, as some have already done including John Eastman, but others would likely testify including Trump's White House counsel Pat Cipollone. Once that testimony is gathered, and adds more corroborating evidence that Trump committed crimes, the prosecutor could ask the grand jury to indict.

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    3. Land: Your father does not need a brokerage account to build a bond ladder, using a Treasury Direct account to buy directly at auctions. When making buys, you can set the number of automatic rolls at maturity. My father use to set the 3 and 6 month bill rolls at the maximum number and no rolls for the 2 year treasury note. The 1 year bill would generally be rolled once.

      The 3 and 6 month bills are auctioned each Monday, except when there is a federal holiday and then the auction date will be set on a Tuesday. There is a bid deadline. I would generally place the order to buy at auction at least 1 day prior to the auction date.

      https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tbills_glance.htm

      With short term rates likely to rise, I would at least consider putting some funds into the 1 month T Bill which is also auctioned weekly. When I participated in that maturity, I viewed it as an alternative to keeping far too much excess cash in a checking account that pays .01%. The current 1 month yield is about 1.091, but will adjust quickly higher when the FED raises the FF rate late next month.

      When participating in auctions, you submit a non-competitive bid. The yield will be set by competitive bids accepted by the treasury. Both the non-competitive and competitive bids receive the same rate.

      https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TentativeAuctionScheduleQ22022.pdf

      Delete
  10. I have published a new post:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/06/abb-aqn-atlo-cfgprd-eprprc-flsw-fult.html

    I am now on an irregular publication schedule. Whenever I grow weary of writing, I will probably publish

    ReplyDelete