Economy:
Personal Income and Outlays, October 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Note that the PCE price index rose 5% Y-O-Y with the core PCE up 4.01%. Both numbers jumped from the September levels:
Biden administration to tap oil reserves in bid to tamp down rising gas prices This release will have minimal impact on gasoline prices. The reasons for high gas prices have nothing to do with Biden, nor is there anything meaningful that any President could do to alter the near term outlook. Part of the problem involves OPEC and its collaborator Russia, the cancellation and postponement of mega production projects that started in 2014 when crude prices collapsed and remained low for a long period, the acceleration of demand resulting from the ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic, and the price collapse in 2020 that makes the Y-O-Y numbers look worse than they are historically.
Biden will have to be patient with inflation
Existing-Home Sales Inch Up 0.8% in October
Weekly jobless claims post stunning decline to 199,000, lowest level since 1969; Chart Initial Claims- St. Louis Fed
Fed ready to raise interest rates if inflation continues to run high, minutes show
China's new data protection law adds to challenges for foreign companies - The Washington Post
There is a new Covid variant, known as B1.1.529, that represents a "big jump in evolution," having more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. The new variant has 10 mutations on the ACE2 receptor that is the gateway for Covid to infect human cells. The strong sell off in pre-market trading is IMO linked to this new variant.
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Markets and Market Commentary:
John Malone says there's a misguided 'land rush' in stocks right now akin to late '90s bubble
Market is a bad inflation report away from correction: Jeremy Siegel
Michael Burry Dumped Just About Everything in Q3 to Guard Against the 'Mother of All Crashes' — but He Did Purchase 3 Interesting New Holdings The three buys were LMT, SCYNEXIS Inc. (SCYX) and NOW Inc. (DNOW). Before reading that article, I had never heard of SCYX or DNOW. I own only LMT.
Dominion Energy (D) Retools, Relying on State Regulation for Gains | Barron's
Plug Power Stock Surges. Morgan Stanley Boosts Price Target by 51%. | Barron's I mentioned this upgrade in a 11/19/21 comment.
Turkish lira crashes to historic low after Erdogan sparks selloff
Jury Finds Pharmacy Chains Contributed to Opioid Crisis | Barron's (CVS, WMT, Walgreens): Ohio jury blames CVS, Walgreens and Walmart pharmacies for opioid crisis - CBS News
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Schwab Commission Change for OTC Trades:
I discussed this change in a 11/23/21 comment.
Effective 12/6/21, Schwab will start charging a $6.95 commission for trades made in the OTC market, commonly known as the Pink Sheet Exchange (and the Grey Market). Given the use of the ambiguous word "unlisted", I am not certain whether the change includes sponsored ADRs that trade on the OTC (e.g. Roche). I believe at a minimum "unlisted" would include the unsponsored ADRs and OTC traded securities whose 5 letter symbols end in "F".
I owned 10 stocks, traded on the OTC in that account, and have sold all but one of them. Of the 9 stocks, 8 were small ball positions like RHHBY (10 shares), RIOCF (20 shares), RHHBY (50 shares, recently discussed) and CDUAF (20 shares). I can not play small ball and pay a commission.
I had 1 stock with a 100 share position, PWCDF, and I elected to harvest a good profit in that one.
I will only discuss the CDUAF, RHHBY, and RIOCF trades in subsequent posts.
I discuss selling TRSWF in Item # 1 below which was done before I received this commission change notice.
To date, Schwab is the only broker that I use who will charge a commission on OTC traded stocks.
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Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks:
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) SEC Filed Press Release (All amounts are in Canadian Dollars; adjusted net earnings = $2.095B or $1.77 per diluted share with the consensus at $1.544; GAAP E.P.S. higher at $1.86; adjusted funds flow per share = $3.07; equivalent production (BOE/d) = 1,237,503, up from 1,111,286 in the 2020 3rd Q; repaid the US$500 million 3.45% notes originally due November 15, 2021."; repaid $500 million on its $2,650 million term credit facility due February 2023."; "subsequent to quarter end the Company repaid an additional $1,000 million, which reduced the facility balance to $1,150 million as at November 3, 2021."; "Effective July 1, 2021 our free cash flow allocation policy authorized management to increase returns to shareholders through accelerated share repurchases under the Company's NCIB by targeting the repurchase of approximately 1% of shares outstanding per quarter. This policy further states that once the Company reaches an absolute debt level of $15 billion, currently targeted to occur in Q4/21, 50% of free cash flow will be targeted to share repurchases, with the remaining 50% of free cash flow allocated to further strengthen our balance sheet. Per this policy, the Company repurchased approximately 12 million shares in the quarter and year to date as of November 3, 2021 we have repurchased a total of approximately 21.5 million shares for approximately $940 million. Subsequent to quarter end, and as an enhancement to the free cash flow allocation policy, the Board of Directors has authorized management to target absolute debt at levels below $15 billion (approximately 1.0 times debt to EBITDA in the current price environment). To the extent debt is below $15 billion, such amount will be available for strategic growth/acquisition opportunities.")
Consolidated Edison (ED) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $1.52; Adjusted income at $493M or $1.41 per share with the consensus at $1.476 per Fidelity)
CubeSmart (CUBE) SEC Filed Press Release and 3rd Quarter Investor Presentation (FFO per share = $.56; "Increased same-store (507 stores) net operating income (“NOI”) 21.1% year over year, driven by 15.6% revenue growth and a 3.9% increase in property operating expenses."; "same-store occupancy during the quarter averaged 95.6% and ended the quarter at 94.8%."; "added 33 stores to our third-party management platform during the quarter, bringing our total third-party managed store count to 706."; increased quarterly dividend 26% to annual rate of $1.72 per share from the previous $1.36) As a result of selling my highest cost share, my current average cost per share is at $21.19, which generates a 8.12% yield at the new dividend rate. Item # 1.L. Earlier this month, CUBE had a common stock offering priced at $51 per share to the public. Prospectus At the same time, CUBE sold $550M in 2.25% SU notes maturing in 2028 and another $500M in 2.5% SU notes maturing in 2032. FWP The proceeds will be used to fund part of the Storage West acquisition. CubeSmart to Acquire Storage West Platform for $1.69B | Nasdaq
Heritage Commerce (HTBK) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. at $.23 with the consensus at $.21 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.18%, down from 3.24% in the 2020 third quarter; efficiency ratio = 53.78%; NPA Ratio = $.09%; NPL Ratio = .17%; Coverage ratio = 922.88%; ROA = 1.06%; ROTE = 13.49%; total capital ratio - 15.1% consolidate; tangible book value per share = $6.77)
Ironsource (IS) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.02; non-GAAP at $.04 with the consensus at $.02; revenues up 60% Y-O-Y to $140M; net cash = $788M).
Kellogg (K) SEC Filed Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.07 with the consensus at $.933 per Fidelity; diluted GAAP E.P.S. = $.89; revenues = $3.622B up 5.6% and +5.1% on an organic basis)
Macatawa Bank (MCBC) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $7.2M or $.21 per share with the consensus at $.215 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.04%, down from 2.43% in the 2020 third quarter; "Net interest margin was negatively impacted in the third quarter 2021 versus the third quarter 2020 by our carrying significantly higher balances of federal funds sold due to the significant increase in balances held by depositors throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. These balances, which earn only 10-15 basis points in interest, increased by $692.4 million, on average, from the third quarter 2020 and caused a 67 basis point decrease in net interest margin in the third quarter 2021 compared to third quarter 2020 and an 18 basis point decrease compared to second quarter 2021"; Efficiency ratio = 57.93%; "total deposits having grown from $1.7 billion at March 31, 2020 to over $2.5 billion at September 30, 2021."; NPL ratio = .04%; NPA ratio = .10%; charge off ratio at -.09% (net recovery); coverage ratio = 3,936.19%; ROA = .98%; ROE = 11.52; total capital ratio = 18.6%, page 50 10-Q; tangible book value per share = $7.37) I recently started a small ball "purchase program" with the last purchase lowering my AC to $7.88. Item # 3.C.
MetLife (MET) SEC Filed Press Release (operating income of $2.1B or $2.39 with the consensus at $1.737 per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. = $1.77)
Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) SEC Filed Press Release {Net income = $35.1M or $.27 per share, with the consensus at $.221 per Fidelity; declared regular quarterly dividend of $.20 per share; NIM = 2.97%, down from 3.26% in the 2020 3rd quarter; efficiency ratio = 66.44% (too high IMO, needs to fall); Charge off ratio = .12%; NPL Ratio = 1.74% (too high IMO), but trending in the right direction; NPA Ratio = 1.24% (too high IMO); coverage ratio = 61.9% (I prefer over 100% when starting a position), ROA and ROE at .97% and 8.86% (low to average bank returns); tangible book value per share = $9.22} As I mentioned when discussing a 5 share purchase, I do not like this banks performance ratios and view them as below mediocre. A management change is in order IMO. I took a small ball position since I did not want to totally ignore the better than average dividend yield of 6.37% at my cost basis. Item # 1.M. Bought 5 NWBI at $12.55 (10/1/21 Post)
Prudential (PRU) SEC Filed Press Release (Operating E.P.S. = $3.78 based on $1.487B in net income with the consensus E.P.S. at $2.734 pre Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. = $3.9; AUM of $1.727T, up from $1.648T in the 2020 third quarter)
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) SEC Filed Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.98 with the consensus at $.923; GAAP loss of $1.564B or $3.10 per share relating to the sale of fossil fuel units, see PSEG Agrees to Sell PSEG Fossil Generating Portfolio to ArcLight Capital)
SLR Senior Investment (SUNS) SEC Filed Press Release (NII per share = $.23 with the consensus at $.247 per Fidelity; net asset value per share = $15.73, down from $15.91 as of 12/31/20; one investment on nonaccrual) My AC per share is currently at $9.81. Item # 2.G.
Southern Company (SO) SEC Filed Press Release (non-GAAP income $1.3B or $1.23 per share with the consensus at $1.217 per Fidelity; operating revenues = $6.238B for the quarter and $17.346B for the first 9 months compared to $15.258B in the 2020 third quarter, page 11, 10-Q )
SpartanNash (SPTN) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.42; Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.43 with the consensus at $.408 per Fidelity; "Net sales of $2.07 billion increased 0.6% from prior year quarter net sales of $2.06 billion, due to positive sales contributions associated with growth from Food Distribution and Retail.": "retail comparable store sales increased 3.1% for the quarter. Comparable store sales increased by 13.5% on a two-year basis, representing sequential improvement on a quarterly basis."; "increased the low end of the fiscal 2021 profitability outlook range. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to range from $205 to $210 million. In addition, the Company increased and narrowed the range of retail comparable sales expectations from a decline of 5% to 3% to a decline of 2% to 1%.")
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) SEC Filed Press Release (Distributable earnings of $155.1M or $.52 per share with the consensus at $.515; "established a new investment fund to hold our Woodstar affordable housing portfolio and sold a 20.6% interest in the fund at a valuation that is approximately $1.1 billion in excess of our cost.") I have pared my AC per share down to $14.26 (29 shares) Item # 3.L
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Interactive Brokerage Account 1 year performance through 11/19:
+18.74%
Cash is currently at 60.61%.
The largest sector allocation in this account is Canadian reset equity preferred stocks, followed by Canadian REITs, Canadian utilities and then investment grade U.S. corporate bonds. I do not own any Tennessee municipal bonds in this account.
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America's anti-democracy party wants to take over the election apparatus in Wisconsin in order to ensure that the right candidates win in future elections. Wisconsin Republicans Push to Take Over the State’s Elections - The New York Times Senator Ron Johnson (R), who is up for reelection in 2022, is leading this effort. Republicans in that state want to arrest members of the bipartisan election commission who certified the presidential election results. This kind of intimidation is one method used by authoritarians to seize and keep power.
McCarthy: If GOP wins House, Greene, Gosar may receive better committee posts
Arizona’s Attorney General Launches New Probe Into The 2020 Election - YouTube The Arizona attorney general is a republican who wants to become governor.
Donald Trump Fundraises off the Rittenhouse Verdict
Trump statement:
Trump Actively Seeking Vengeful Ouster of Alabama’s Republican Governor, Report Says
Judge Blames Trump for Jan. 6 Riot at the Capitol - Rolling Stone
Judge orders two lawyers who filed suit challenging 2020 election to pay hefty fees: ‘They need to take responsibility’ - The Washington Post The fine was about 187K.
The legal system is starting to work against those who actually tried to steal the election. I am not referring to the Democrats.
Charlottesville ‘Unite the Right’ trial verdic-The Washington Post The Jury awarded $26M in damages against 12 individuals and 5 White Nationalist organizations. Four of the individuals were Richard Spencer, James Fields, Jason Kessler and Christopher Cantwell Apparently, the jurors were unconvinced by Donald's argument there the White Nationalists were good people.
RNC agrees to pay some of Trump’s legal bills in N.Y. criminal investigation - The Washington Post There is no indication that the investigation is related to Trump's conduct as President but only his personal financial dealings.
Dr. Bruce Boros and Six Others Doctors Who Recommend Against Taking a Vaccine Become Infected While Attending an anti-vaccine meeting Dr. Boros rails against the vaccine and instead ingests ivermectin. Pharmacists Fight Off COVID Truthers Demanding Horse Medicine Ivermectin Instead of the Jab
Republicans Fight Covid Mandates, Then Blame Biden as Cases Rise - The New York Times republished at MSN Republicans Hit Biden on Coronavirus Both their shamelessness and brazen hypocrisy know no boundaries.
In TrumpWorld, unvaccinated persons, who observe no precautions, have no responsibility for an increase in infections and hospitalization Chart: The Unvaccinated Drive COVID-19 Infections in the U.S. | Statista
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1. Eliminated TRSWF in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $14.94:
Quotes:
USD: TransAlta Renewables Inc. (TRSWF)(currently trading on the U.S. pink sheet exchange)
CAD: TransAlta Renewables (RNW:CA)
This company owns solar, wind and natural gas generation. Facilities in Operation/Development
I decided to reduce my exposure after the company reported significant problems at its Kent Hills wind generation facility. The company discussed that problem in these press releases: TransAlta Renewables Provides Operational Update for Kent Hills Wind Facility and Revises 2021 Guidance; TransAlta Renewables Temporarily Suspends Operations at Kent Hills Wind Facility Pending Investigation of Wind Tower Failure
I still own 100 shares bought on the Toronto exchange with my CADs. Item # 1 Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (4/11/20 Post)
Website: Home - TransAlta Renewables
Profit Snapshot: $505.31
Buy Discussed at Item # 2 Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.89 (6/27/20 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at C$.07833 per share (C$.94 annually)
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Last Earnings Report (9/30/21): TransAlta Renewables Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results
Note that the dividend exceeded the cash available for distribution in the third quarter.
Other Trade Discussions:
Item # 1 Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$17.92(3/14/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$511)-Item # 2 Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.79 (9/14/19 Post);
Item # 3. B. Sold 150 RNW:CA at C$13.97 (profit snapshot = C$163.5)- Item # 2.A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (6/18/18 Post), Item #2.A. Bought 50 RNW:CA at C$12.45 (7/12/18 Post)
Realized to Date Profit Totals:
+ US$581.05
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia
The underlying rationale for the small ball trading strategy is risk mitigation in what I view as a dicey stock market whose parabolic rise has been fueled by (1) unprecedented money creation; (2) central bank suppression of interest rates far below the inflation rate through extraordinarily abnormal monetary policies continued now for almost 14 years; (3) extreme levels of U.S. government deficit spending, and (4) spending rapidly increasing amounts of borrowed money.
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. I am doing that regularly now, having turned off the dividend reinvestment option in virtually all stocks that I own.
The primary known threats to the stock market are potentially problematic inflation, high valuations and a renewed surge in the pandemic that materially disrupts the economy. Those threats are placed in order of likelihood based on my opinion and what is known now.
The primary erroneous assumption is that the extraordinary stimulus measures outlined above can continue indefinitely or that the economy will experience robust growth when they have to be withdrawn.
The recently enacted infrastructure legislation is not sufficient to move the needle that much given the size of the economy, its dependence on far greater past economic stimulus and the amount of new spending over baseline spread out over a ten year period.
The "human" infrastructure bill is still in doubt even though it passed the House on a party line vote. CBO Scores the Build Back Better Act | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; House passes biggest climate investment in U.S. history
A. Bought 10 NWFL at $25.5:
Quote: Norwood Financial Corp.
Closing Price 11/24: NWFL $27.24 +$0.42 +1.57%
Norwood Financial is a bank holding company whose operating subsidiary, Wayne Bank, "operates from fourteen offices throughout Northeastern Pennsylvania and sixteen offices in Delaware, Sullivan, Ontario, Otsego and Yates Counties, New York."
Analyst Estimates: None currently
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
This is a new name for me.
5 year Financial Data:
Sourced: 2020 Annual Report at page 10
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share, last raised from $.25 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment.
Norwood Financial Corp. Dividend History-Nasdaq
Yield at $25.5 = 4.08%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/14/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.85, up from $.62 in the 2020 third quarter
Net Income = $6.981M
NIM: 3.61%, down from 3.73% in the 2020 3rd Q.
Charge off ratio = zero
NPL Ratio: .20%
NPA Ratio: .22%
ROA = 1.36%
ROE = 13.5%
ROTE = 15.78%
Tangible Book Value per share = $21.27
E.P.S. first 9 months = $2.23
Capital Ratios as of 9/30/21:
B. Bought 5 AROW at $35.6:
Quote: Arrow Financial Corp.
Closing Price 11/24: AROW $36.84 -$0.66 -1.76%
For the past several years, the bank will increase the dividend by 3% each year, not by increasing the penny rate, but by keeping the dividend steady after declaring a 3% stock dividend.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.K. Restarted AROW in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 5 at $24.9 and Item 1.L. Bought 5 in Schwab Account at $27.33 (10/31/20 Post)
5 Year Financials: Solid IMO
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21) SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.81
Consensus at $.80 per Fidelity
Net Income $12.989M
NIM = 3.04%, up from 2.93% in the 2020 3rd Q.
Efficiency Ratio = 52.74% (good IMO)
Efficiency Ratio Calculation:
NPL Ratio: .43%
NPA Ratio: .29%
Charge off Ratio = .03%
Coverage Ratio = 237.60%
ROA = 1.32%
ROE = 14.34%
ROTE = 15.36%
Tangible Book Value per share = $20.99, up from $18.93 in the 2020 3rd Q.
Capital Ratios:
Last Elimination: Item # 1.A. Sold 52 AROW at $37.5 (7/2/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34)
AROW realized gains to date = $730.7
C. Bought 10 ATLO at $23.55-Schwab Taxable:
This is a new name for me.
Quote: Ames National Corp.
"Ames National Corporation affiliate Iowa banks are First National Bank, Ames; Boone Bank & Trust Co., Boone; State Bank & Trust Co., Nevada; Reliance State Bank, Story City; United Bank & Trust, Marshalltown; and Iowa State Savings Bank, Creston, Iowa."
Ames National Corporation Profile | Reuters
Key Metrics | Reuters (tangible book value per share at $21.47)
Analyst Estimates: None currently
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share, last raised from $.25 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment.
Ames National Corporation Dividend History
Yield at $23.55: 4.42%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/31/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q
E.P.S. = $.74, up from $.62
NIM = 2.97%, down from 3.21%
Efficiency Ratio = 51.35%
NPL Ratio: 1.11%
ROA = 1.29%ROE = 12.6%
Capital Ratios as of 9/30/21:
D. Started COLB-Bought 2 at $34.93; 3 at $34.4; 2 at $33.95-Fidelity Taxable:
Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc.
Closing Price 11/24: COLB $34.38 -$0.09 -0.26%
This is a new name for me.
COLB is in the process of acquiring Umpqua (UMPQ) which I have owned in the past. Columbia Banking System And Umpqua Holdings Corporation Combining To Create The West Coast's Leading Regional Bank ("The combined company will be the West Coast's leading regional bank with $43 billion in deposits, including $16 billion of deposits in Oregon, $15 billion in Washington, $10 billion in California and $2 billion collectively in Idaho and Nevada. . . The transaction is projected to deliver approximately 25% cash EPS accretion and 23% GAAP EPS accretion to Columbia, and approximately 11% cash EPS accretion and 8% GAAP EPS accretion to Umpqua in 2023, assuming fully phased-in cost savings")
The previous large acquisition occurred in 2017: Columbia Banking System Announces Completion of Acquisition of Pacific Continental Corporation I had previously owned Pacific Continental stock which had about $2.5B in assets and 14 branches in Oregon when the merger announcement was made in January 2017.
As of 12/31/20, COLB's branch network had 145 offices located in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. 94 of those branches were owned and the rest leased.
Sourced Page 25 of the 2020 Annual Report
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average cost per share = $34.42 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
Yield at AC = 3.49%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/21
5 year Financial data:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.74 based on $53M in net income
Consensus at $.708 per Fidelity
NIM = 3.17%, down from 3.47% in the 2020 third Q.
Efficiency Ratio = 56.67%
NPA Ratio = .13%
NPL Ratio = .25%
ROE = 8.97%
ROTE = 13.82%
Tangible Book Value per share: $21.41
Capital Ratios:
E. Bought 30 MBIO at $2.21:
Quote: Mustang Bio Inc.
This company is controlled by Fortress Biotech, discussed in the next section.
"Under the terms of the Second Amended and Restated Founders Agreement, which became effective July 22, 2016, Fortress will receive a grant of shares of our common stock equal to two and one-half percent (
MBIO's 'pipeline is currently focused in three core areas: gene therapy programs for rare genetic disorders, chimeric antigen receptor (“CAR”) engineered T cell (“CAR T”) therapies for hematologic malignancies and CAR T therapies for solid tumors. For each therapy we have partnered with world class research institutions. For our gene therapy programs, we have partnered with St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital (“St. Jude”) in the development of a first-in-class ex vivo lentiviral treatment of X-linked severe combined immunodeficiency (“XSCID”) and for our CAR T therapies we have partnered with the City of Hope National Medical Center (“COH”), Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (“Fred Hutch”) and Nationwide Children’s Hospital (“Nationwide”)."
Website: Homepage - MustangBio
MBIO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (losses expected through 2023, the last year covered)
This is a new name for me.
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket
Recent News:
Mustang Bio Announces MB-106 CD20-Targeted CAR T Data Selected for Presentation at 63rd American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting (11/4/21) This looked encouraging with an overall response rate of 94% and a complete response of 62%, with 7 cases of "cytokine release syndrome (4 patients with Grade 1 and 3 patients with Grade 2) and one occurrence of Grade 2 immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome."
Last Loss Report (9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Net Loss = $17.005M or $.19 per share
Cash: $120.879M
F. Bought 30 FBIO at $3.04:
Quote Fortress Biotech Inc.
This is a complicated company and I am only going to touch on a few items here.
Fortress "has seven marketed prescription pharmaceutical products and over 25 programs in development at Fortress, at its majority-owned and majority-controlled partners and at partners it founded and in which it holds significant minority ownership positions. Such product candidates span six large-market areas, including oncology, rare diseases and gene therapy, which allow it to create value for shareholders."
Mustang Bio, discussed in the previous section, is majority controlled by Fortress. Page 10 MBIO 10-Q
Website: Fortress Biotech, Inc. (FBIO)
FBIO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Programs-Fortress Biotech, Inc.
Marketed Products-Fortress Biotech
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Recent News:
Journey Medical Corporation Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering (11/16/21)(" 3,520,000 shares at a public offering price of $10.00 per share, for gross proceeds of $35.2 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and offering expenses. All of the shares of common stock were offered by Journey Medical." The symbol is DERM) Journey Medical is one of FBIO's portfolio companies. After this offering, Fortress still has majority control over Journey Medical at 51.7%. Page 103 Prospectus
Another clinical stage biotech that is controlled by FBIO is Checkpoint Therapeutics Inc. (CKPT), see Page 8, CKPT 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21
Last Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Fortress Biotech Reports Record Third Quarter 2021
GAAP Loss of $20.8M or $.26 per share
Non-GAAP net income of $43.7M or $.54 per share, "which includes the partial realization of Fortress’ investment in Caelum", which was acquired by AstraZeneca (AZN)
Fortress Biotech Announces Closing of Acquisition of Caelum Biosciences by AZN (10/6/21)("AstraZeneca acquired Caelum for the agreed option exercise price of approximately $150 million. Distributions will be made to all existing Caelum stockholders. The agreement also provides for additional potential payments to Caelum stockholders totaling up to $350 million, payable upon the achievement of regulatory and commercial milestones. Fortress is eligible to receive approximately 43 percent of all proceeds from the transaction.")
Cash as of 9/30/21 = $254.4M
I have bought and sold FBIO in the past. Fortress Biotech Reports Record Third Quarter 2021
Realized Gains to date: $62.04
G. Bought 1 DGX at $141.85:
Quote: Quest Diagnostics Inc.
Closing Price 11/24: DGX $149.52 -$1.52 -1.01%
"Quest Diagnostics Incorporated is the world's leading provider of diagnostic information services"
While the diagnostic test market is fragmented in the U.S., I would call Quest and Laboratory Corporation (LB) a duopoly. Both have benefited from Covid testing, although the pandemic did create some softness in other tests due to a decrease in patient visits.
DGX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Covid impact discussed at page 26:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.62 per share ($2.48 annually)
Dividend History:
Yield at $141.85: 1.75%
If the quarterly rate doubled in 8 years to $1.24 per share ($4.96 annually), the yield would improve to 3.5%. A continuation of that trend for say 40 years would make DGX an attractive dividend growth stock for someone younger than me. It is impossible to know what the future will bring when looking out that far in time. There is a built in growth trend based just on population growth and the number of baby boomers requiring more tests.
Last Ex Date: 10/4/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $3.96
Adjusted net income = $498M
Consensus at $2.875
Updated 2021 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. between $14.69 to $15.09
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (10/21/21): 3 stars with a FV of $140 (noting results slightly beat expectations based on a surge in Covid testing related to the Delta variant, organic non-Covid testing rose 4% in the quarter; nearly 2,300 patient service centers in the U.S.; notes that Laboratory Corporation and Qwest have created barriers to entry by creating significant cost advantages)
Argus (11/1/21): Buy with a $160 price target.
S & P (10/21/21): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $165 (anticipates $1.6B in free cash flow in 2021 and $1B in 2022, with the lower 2022 number caused by fewer Covid tests and a cut to Medicare payments for tests resulting from the enactment of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014)
The lobbying group for the clinical testing companies do not like this law: ACL 10/28/2020.pdf
This kind of cut in reimbursement rates will hurt all testing companies but will also likely lead to more concentration, and possibly higher prices for non-Medicare patient tests, as less efficient operators are absorbed by either Quest or Laboratory Corporation.
H. Pared SJR Again in Fidelity Taxable-Sold All Shares (32) with a cost basis of $18 per share or higher at $29.67:
Quotes:
USD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
CAD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 11/24: SJR $29.15 +$0.08 +0.28%
Company Website: About Shaw
As previously discussed, Shaw is in the process of being acquired by Rogers Communication for C$40.50 per share in cash. SEC Filed Press Release (at a CAD/USD of .8, the USD equivalent would be US$32.4 per SJR share)
The merger has to be approved by Canada's Competition Bureau. Since the merger announcement, Shaw shares have traded at a meaningful discount to the C$40.5 price per share, indicating some investor concern about whether the acquisition, which would increase concentration in the mobile phone market in Canada, would be allowed to happen.
Profit Snapshot: $355.93 (10/14 /21 sale only)
Average Cost per share before pare = $17.19
Average Cost per share after pare = $15.92 (34 shares)
I sold on the 10/14/21 ex dividend date.
Last Ex Dividend:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Shaw Announces Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal 2021
E.P.S. = C$.71
Free cash flow = C$307M
Fidelity has the USD equivalent at US$.50 with the consensus at US$.33.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.E. Added to SJR-Bought 2 at $18; 1 at $17.95; 1 at $16.61; 1 at $16.2 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 3.D. Added 5 SJR at $16.88; 5 at $16.4; 5 at $15.8; 1 at $12.48 (4/11/20 Post)
SJR realized gains to date: +$1,547.45 (of that amount, +$439.17 was realized in 2 Roth IRA accounts)
I. Added to VTRS-Bought 2 at $13.56; 5 at $13.13:
Quote: Viatris Inc.
Closing Price 11/24: VTRS $13.05 -$0.11 -0.84%
VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to VTRS at $13.79 (8/27/21 Post)(summarized second quarter earnings report in this post); Item # 3.J. Bought 8 VTRS at $13.28 in Fidelity Account and Item #3.K. Bought 8 VTRS in Vanguard Account at $13.34 (5/14/21 Post)
Recent Barron's Article: Viatris Stock Fell in Its First Year. The CEO Sees a Unique Drug Business. | Barron's
Average Cost per share this account: $14.21 (40+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.11
Yield at AC = 3.1%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/22/21 (owned all as of )
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.99
Consensus at $.884 per Fidelity
GAAP E.P.S. = $.26
Free cash flow = $965M
Net Sales = $4.52B, down 4%
Major Product Revenues:
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
Updated Guidance:
J. Pared TPVG Again in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $16.95 and 5 at $18.83:
Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC- Externally Managed BDC
Closing Price 11/24: TPVG $18.66 -$0.07 -0.37%
Of the BDC stocks that I have owned, TPVG has had the most success with its equity positions.
A list of TPVG's equity investments can be found in its last filed 10-Q starting at page 9. As of 9/30/21, TPVG lists the total cost of its equity positions at $34.251M with a fair value claimed by the company of $50.568M. Most of those positions are in private companies.
Notwithstanding TPVG's success with several equity positions, its net asset value per share has remained relatively stable. One explanation is that the external managers soak up some of the gains through incentive fees and its base management fee. Note at page 1 of the 10-Q that the liabilities listed for those fees total $5.649M as of 9/30/21 (see discussion at pages 26-28)
The most recent success is a company called Toast Inc. (TOST). Based on information contained in TPVG's last filed 10-Q at page 9 (cost shown at $27,000 with a value as of 9/30/21 at $5.075M)
I believe that individual investors in particular are drawn to those equity investment successes and have bid up the price far above net asset value per share. That focus has drawn attention away from the decline in net investment income per share which is the primary support for the regular dividend. NII per share in the third quarter was $.32 with the regular dividend at $.36.
Profit Snapshot: $84.38 (10/18/21 and 11/8 sales only)
Average cost per share this account before pares = $6.22
Average cost after pare = $5.11 (29 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 11/8/21 after last pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share (regular only) A ten cent special dividend was paid in the 4th quarters of 2020 and 2018. I am no longer reinvesting the dividend and have profitably sold all shares bought with dividends.
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock (TPVG) Dividend History | Nasdaq
I am taking the dividends in cash and have already sold all share bought with dividends at profits.
Yield at New AC of $5.11 = 28.18%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/30/21
Next Ex Dividend: 11/29/21
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96 (4/11/2020 Post)
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
IPO in March 2014 at $15
9/30/21: $13.92
12/31/18: $13.50
9/30/18: $13.59
12/31/17: $13.25
9/30/17: $13.39
9/30/16: $13.44
9/30/15: $14.52
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share = $.32, down from $.4 in the 2020 third quarter
Consensus at $.337 per Fidelity
"TPVG portfolio companies ForgeRock, Inc. and Toast, Inc. successfully completed initial public offerings, and Nerdy Inc. (f/k/a Varsity Tutors LLC) closed its SPAC merger";
0.82x leverage ratio:
"12.3% weighted average annualized portfolio yield on total debt investments for the quarter";
"declared a fourth quarter distribution of $0.36 per share, payable on December 15, 2021; bringing total declared distributions to $11.50 per share since the Company’s initial public offering."
Subsequent Events:
Prior Sell Discussions: Item #3.R. Finished Selling Fractional Shares Bought with Dividends-Fidelity Account (6/4/21 Post)(profit =$2.01/.461 share); Item # 1.L. Sold 5 TPVG at $15.67 in Schwab Taxable and Item #1.M. Sold 11 TPVG at $15.67-highest cost shares in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $74.43); Item # 1.R. Pared TPVG in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $15.35 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.74); Item # 1.C. Pared TPVG-Sold 4 at $14.85 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.71); Item # 3.K. Pared-Sold 9 at $13.13-Lots Bought with Dividend (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.95); Item #1.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.41 (8/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.1; contains snapshots of prior round-trip trade profits); Item # 2.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.6 (8/15/20 Post)(profit snapshot $9.99); Item # 1.J. Eliminated TPVG in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 30 at $10.58 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.3); Item # 2.A. Pared TPVG-Sold 14 shares at $15.61-Used Commission Free Trade (9/1/2019 Post)(profit = $46.33); Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $246.43); Item # 4.C. Eliminated TPVG in Roth IRA Account (4/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $88.87); Item # 3.B.(4/14/19 Post)(profit = $71.76); Item 3.A. Sold 40 TPVG at $13.44-Schwab Account and Item #3B Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 Vanguard Roth IRA (3/13/19 Post)(profit snapshots of $4.17 and $4.49 ); Item 2.B. Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 (3/4/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $153.08); Item # 3 Sold 50 TPVG at $12.33 (1/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.48)
GOAL: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
K. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 3 at $17.62:
See Item # 1.J. above.
Remaining Shares this account (price as of 11/9/21):
Profit Snapshot: $30.46
New Average Cost per share this account: $4.68
Dividend yield at AC = 30.77% (regular dividend only)
TPVG Realized Gains to Date: $1,076.87
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
L. Bought 10 SQFTP at $24.99; 5 at $24.75; 5 at $24.35:
Quote: Presidio Property Trust 9.375% Preferred Series D
Closing Price 11/24: SQFTP $24.43 -$0.03 -0.12%
Issuer: Presidio Property Trust Cl A
This tiny REIT owns model homes, industrial, retail and office properties. Note the occupancy levels and mortgage notes on the North Dakota properties: Dakota Center and 300 N.P.
Last Financial Report: Q/E 9/30/21 IMO, this REIT needs to quit paying its quarterly $.103 per common share dividend. Core FFO for the last quarter was reported at -$4,350 with revenues at $4.376+M. Core FFO was reported at $.17 per share for the first nine months but even that number is substantially lower the common share dividend payout.
Issuer SEC Filings
SQFT 2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 7 and ends at page 19)
Investment Categories: Lottery Ticket Basket and Secondarily Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I view this security to be a high risk, really junky equity preferred stock as evidenced by the coupon. Victory is defined as collecting the dividend and avoiding a loss when the shares are sold.
Par Value: $25
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock
Optional Call: At issuers option on or after 6/15/26 at par plus accrued and unpaid dividends.
Dividends: Cumulative and Paid Monthly
Monthly Penny Rate: $.1953 per share
Average cost per share: $24.77 (20 shares)
I am at my maximum position.
Yield at AC = 9.46%
Standard Stopper Clause: Prevents paying cash dividends on common stock and deferring payment of the preferred stock dividend which has a superior claim on cash to the common.
M. Eliminated Lotto CODX in 3 Accounts-Sold at $9.48 or $9.5:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
