Economy:
The BLS reported last Friday that the economy added 528,000 jobs in July, far higher than the consensus estimate of 258,000. Employment Situation Summary The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in June. Average hourly earnings rose $.15 and increased by 5.2% over the 12 months ending in July 2022. The U-6 number was reported at 6.7%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2022 M07 Results
The strong job numbers for May and June were revised up.
The BLS reported this morning that the annual CPI rate through July was 8.5%, down from 9.1% in the twelve months ending in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was unchanged in July, with the consensus estimate at +.2%.
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M07 Results
West Texas Intermediate Crude prices are now in a dominant downtrend after topping out at $121.94 per barrel (6/8/22). Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel 1985 to the present)
Labor productivity fell 4.6% in the 2022 second quarter as labor costs surged. Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2022, Preliminary
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Trump was requested by the National Archives to return government documents, as required by law, that he took with him. He did return some documents including a number that were classified. If there were still government documents in his possession, that would be relevant to the intent requirement (Mens Rea) of these criminal statutes:
No 'greater threat to our republic:' Dick Cheney attacks Donald Trump in ad for Liz Cheney; Dick Cheney does ad for his daughter's congressional campaign in Wyoming-YouTube Trump is the easily the most powerful domestic enemy of America's democracy since the nation's founding.
Rusty Bowers, a Jan. 6 committee star witness, loses GOP primary in Arizona Bowers was the Arizona House Speaker but badly lost to a Trump endorsed challenger. Bowers was censured by the Arizona GOP for telling the truth under oath about Trump's efforts to subvert the 2020 Arizona presidential election results. Rusty Bowers says it'll will take 'a miracle' to win his next election. The Arizona GOP's censure resolution, passed shortly after Bowers truthfully testified under oath, asserted he "is unfit to serve the platform of the Republican Party of Arizona and the will of" Republican voters and consequently deserved to be permanently expelled from office. The Arizona republicans are in the vanguard of America's anti-democracy party. An Arizona bill would empower state legislators to reject election results
Opinion | Arizona Just Chose a Senate Candidate More Extreme Than Donald Trump - The New York Times
The Most Antidemocratic Slate of Candidates in America - The Atlantic
The Oath Keeper, 1/6 participant, and election conspiracy propagator Mark Finchem, who has been married 4 times (which qualifies him as a family values republican), easily won, as expected, the GOP nomination to be Arizona's Secretary of State in charge of elections. Mark Finchem was much closer to the Jan. 6 insurrection than he claimed
Notwithstanding winning the election, and without any proof of course, Finchem asserted that he was the victim of fraudulent voting.
Trump-Backed Conspiracy Theorist Vies to Take Over Arizona Elections - The New York Times;
This QAnon-Loving ‘Stop the Steal’ Leader Wants to Be Arizona’s Next Secretary of State
Finchem claims that he had experience as a police officer and firefighter in Kalamazoo, Michigan, where, according to the NYT, his file contained the notation "poor rating, would not rehire". So Finchem is an extremely well qualified republican candidate who only wants to protect democracy by ensuring that republicans win elections irrespective of the certified vote count and without any reliable evidence of fraud to change the vote count.
The republican nominee for Nevada's Secretary of State, Jim Marchant, says he would not have certified Biden's victory in Nevada. He wants more police at the polls. Jim Marchant is the Nevada GOP pick for secretary of state-NPR
The republican nominee for Michigan's Secretary of State, the Trump endorsed Kristina Karoma, claims that the Dominion Voting machines flipped Trump votes to Biden. Michigan Republican Kristina Karamo's false election claims; The MAGA Poll Worker Who Might Run Michigan’s Elections - The Atlantic Made up stories pass for facts in Trump's America.
The republican nominee for Arizona's Governor, Kari Lake, has stated that she would not have certified Biden's victory in that state. Kari Lake, Trump's Pick for Arizona Governor, Says She Wouldn't Have Certified Biden's Win And, Lake stated that she wants her opponent in the governor's race, the current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, imprisoned for certifying Biden's victory. Hobbs' crime in Trump's America is obeying the law as written. Ms. Lake is just one of many Republican anti-democracy candidates who won republican primaries in battleground states and will have authority over elections if elected in November. Multiple GOP candidates who won Aug. 2 primaries believe 2020 election was stolen - CBS News
Ms. Lake has suggested that ownership and sale of rocket launchers are protected by the Second Amendment. She told a summit of young "conservative" women that "God did not create us to be equal to men". When an opponent in the Governor's race offered a "counterpoint to Ms. Lake’s proposal to install cameras in classrooms, she smeared him as sympathetic to pedophiles." Arizonans Trusted Kari Lake to Tell It Straight on TV. Will They Trust Her as Governor? - The New York Times
Trump targets top Wisconsin GOP lawmaker Robin Vox for not overturning election - The Washington Post Robin Vox is the republican House Speaker in Wisconsin, who has bent over backwards kowtowing to Don the Authorian's ongoing efforts to overturn the certified 2020 presidential election results in that state. Those efforts included threatening felony charges against the members of the bipartisan election commission for allowing voters to deposit ballots in drop boxes and spending $1M of taxpayer money to pursue Trump's election conspiracy claims. A non-partisan legislative audit and another by a conservative group found no significant evidence of fraud.
Vox is now a "Rhino" in TrumpWorld after telling the Republican's Dear Leader that it was not legally possible to retroactively cancel votes cast by lawful voters sufficient to award Donald Wisconsin's electoral votes. Trump endorsed Vox's opponent who supports decertifying Wisconsin's vote count and retroactively awarding the electoral votes to Donald. In Wisconsin Primary, G.O.P. Voters Call for Decertifying 2020 Election - The New York Times
Michigan AG details Trump backers' conspiracy to break into voting equipment; Matthew DePerno: Trump-backed GOP candidate for Michigan AG under criminal investigation for possibly tampering with voting machines, docs say - CNN; Michigan Officials Push to Investigate Matthew DePerno in 2020 Election Scheme - The New York Times
Dominic Rapini won the Connecticut republican primary for Secretary of State. He has a history of involvement with a group that has made false allegations of voter fraud. Once an afterthought, CT Secretary of the State race moves to forefront amid attempts to subvert elections
The republican nominee for Wisconsin's Secretary of State, Amy Loudenbeck, has called for the abolition of the Wisconsin Election Commission with the republican controlled legislature having sole authority of elections and certifications of the vote count.
Courts in several states have voided Republican gerrymanders as violating state constitutions. The Republican Supreme Court Justices will allow those gerrymandered congressional districts to remain in effect through at least the November 2022 election which will allow the anti-democracy party to pick up 5-7 House seats according the Cook Political Report. Maps in Four States Were Ruled Illegal Gerrymanders. They’re Being Used Anyway. - The New York Times The Republican Supreme Court Justices have taken a case advanced by their compadres in a Republican controlled legislature that would prevent state courts from interfering in whatever Republican legislatures want to do involving elections. Accepting certified election results when republicans lose and promoting democracy are not among those objectives. U.S. Supreme Court takes on the independent state legislature theory-NPR; The ‘Independent State Legislature Theory,’ Explained | Brennan Center for Justice
Tennessee is not mentioned as one of those states even though a recent gerrymander by the republican legislature will eliminate 1 of the 2 House seats currently occupied by Democrats. One purpose of this gerrymander was to dilute the significant black vote in North Nashville and to carve up the moderate/liberal areas while separating those regions from North Nashville.
The republicans carved up Nashville, a Democrat stronghold, into 3 pieces and then grouped each piece with high concentrations of republicans so that no Democrat will be able to represent Nashville/Davidson County. The Democrat congressman from Nashville, who ran opposed in 2020, receiving 100% of the vote, decided to retire since there was no way he could win any of the gerrymandered districts drawn by America's anti-democracy party. Biden carried Nashville by 24%. New Tennessee Congressional Map Favors Republicans 8 to 1 | Bloomberg Government
The GOP is not salvageable as a conservative party.
Appeals court says House can obtain Trump's taxes from the IRS - CNN
How Republicans Are ‘Weaponizing’ Public Office Against Climate Action - The New York Times Republican treasurers "around the country are working to thwart climate action on state and federal levels, fighting regulations that would make clear the economic risks posed by a warming world, lobbying against climate-minded nominees to key federal posts and using the tax dollars they control to punish companies that want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions." The fact that all 50 Republican Senators voted against the recently passed climate bill is consistent with these Republican efforts in the states. What can you say about a party whose leader appoints a coal lobbyist to run the EPA? The Coal Lobbyist Now Running the Environmental Protection Agency - Public Citizen
I would mostly agree with Dana Milbank that the Republican Party started to devolve into what it is today when Newt Gingrich became Speaker. Aspects of the current GOP mindset can be traced back to Nixon who embodied many of the same strong authoritarian tendencies that are dominant today in the GOP. Book review of The Destructionists: The Twenty-Five-Year Crack-Up of the Republican Party by Dana Milbank - The Washington Post; The Destructionists: The Twenty-Five Year Crack-Up of the Republican Party - Kindle edition by Milbank, Dana. @ Amazon.com. The GOP is now the antithesis of a conservative party.
Democrats fail to overrule parliamentarian on insulin price cap as GOP votes no | The Hill; Republican Senators block cap on insulin costs for many Americans from Democratic deal The Senate Parliamentarian ruled that this provision could not pass using the budget reconciliation process which bypasses the 60 vote filibuster rule. The Democrats sought a waiver from the filibuster rule and were blocked by the Republicans. U.S. Senate: About Filibusters and Cloture
For the Taliban, a New Era of Isolation Has Arrived - The New York Times It is not surprising that the Taliban sheltered the Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in downtown Kabul. He was staying at a luxury compound allegedly owned by "Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting Taliban interior minister, who is under US terrorism sanctions." Ayman al-Zawahiri: Shock in Kabul as US kills al-Qaeda leader - BBC News The Taliban has not changed, of course, notwithstanding their protestations that they have learned from past mistakes. The Taliban began to show their true colors soon after taking control, denying young girls the opportunity to attend schools.
Russia rockets damaged part of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant says Ukraine – BBC News - YouTube Attacking a nuclear power plant with missiles proves that exceedingly deranged psychopaths are in charge.
All American citizens, other than diplomats who have no choice but to be in Russia, need to immediately leave that pariah state and certainly refrain from going there in the future. Putin sentenced the American basketball player Brittney Griner to 9 years in a Russian penal colony. Her "crime" was possessing less than 1 gram of cannabis oil. Brittney Griner: WNBA star sentenced to 9 years in Russian jail -CNN; Cannabidiol (CBD) Oil for Pain and Seizures Shown This is a clear and unequivocal warning for all Americans, other than diplomats, to avoid setting foot in Russia.
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1. Corporate Bonds:
I am discussing a few purchases out of time order. Most of the bonds bought last week are scheduled for discussion in October. With bond bought to date, including those yet to be discussed, I am about 60% through my reallocation out of cash into short term bonds.
Schwab did recently increase its sweep account rates to .25% from .15%. I am rapidly draining the cash out of that account given the unfavorable yield comparison compared to Treasury bills.
A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.038:
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Finra Page: Bond Detail
I now own 6 bonds.
The bond was originally issued by Select Income Trust and is now an OPI obligation)
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost = 4.777%
Current Yield at TC = 4.29%
B. Bought 2 Williams 3.75% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 at a Total Cost of 97.654:
%206:15:27%20.png)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
This bond was originally issued by Williams Partners L.P. and is now a Williams, Inc. obligation.
I own over 100 shares of common stock. Williams Cos. (WMB); last WMB buy discussions at Item # 2 Added 95 WMB at $24.98 and 5 at $23.8 (8/20/21 Post) Item # 3.B. Added 5 WMB at $24.2 (10/8/21 Post)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost = 4.275%
Current Yield at TC = 3.84%
Last Bond Offering-8/5/22: Prospectus
C. Bought 2 Parker Hannifin 3.3% SU Maturing on 11/21/24 at a Total Cost of 99.607:
%20%2011:21:24.png)
Issuer: Parker Hannifin Corp. (PH)
PH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/22
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 3.468%
Current Yield at TC = 3.31%
D. Bought 2 Parker Hannifin 3.65% SU Maturing on 6/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.376:
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Issuer: See Item #1.C. Above. Discussed out of time order.
This one matures earlier in 2024.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
YTM at Total Cost = 3.984%
Current Yield at TC = 3.6729%
This offering was made in early June 2022. Prospectus
E. Bought 1 Boston Properties Partnership 2.75% SU Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 94.444:
%202.75%25%2010:1:26%20.png)
Issuer: Operating entity for Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)
Website: The largest publicly traded developer in the United States - BXP
SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 4.171%
Current yield at TC = 2.91%
F. Bought 2 Georgia Power 2.1% SU Maturing on 7/30/23 at a Total Cost of 99.144:
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Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the Southern Company (SO)
SO 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 Financial information on just Georgia Power starts at page 21; first quarter net income at $385M, revenues of $2.017B))
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 2.874%
Current Yield at TC = 2.12%
G. Purchased 10 Georgia Power 2.1% SU Maturing on 7/30/23 at a Total Cost of 98.884:
%202.1%25%207:30:23%20.png){kind=small} |
| Schwab Price Includes $1 per bond commission |
Purchased on 6/24/22
This is the same bond discussed immediately above. I now own 14 including 2 in a Roth IRA account.
YTM at Total Cost: 3.149%
Current Yield at TC = 2.12%, rounded down.
Semiannual interest payment:
H. Bought 2 Live Oak 3.4% CDs Maturing on 8/4/25:
Purchased 7/29/22. Discussed out of time order.
Issuer: Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) | MarketWatch
Interest paid monthly.
I. Bought 2 Morgan Stanley Bank 3.1% CDs Maturing on 8/4/23:
%203.1%25%208:4:22.png){kind=small}
Purchased 7/28/22. Discussed out of time order.
Interest paid at maturity.
J. Bought 1 Boston Properties Partnership 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/23 at a Total Cost of 99.539:
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Purchased 8/1/22. Discussed out of time order. On 8/1, the 1 year treasury bill closed at a 2.98% yield.
For issuer details, see Item # 1.E. above.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Make whole provision expires 90 days prior to maturity.
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 3.563%
Current Yield at TC = 3.1395%
I now own 4 bonds including 1 in a RI account.
K. Bought 2 American Express 3.375% SU Maturing on 5/3/24 at a Total Cost of 99.5605:
%205:3:24%203.375%25%20.png)
Purchased 8/8/22. Discussed out of time order.
Issuer: American Express Co. (AXP)
AXP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 3.637%
Current Yield at TC = 3.39%
2. Treasury Auctions This Week:
A. Bought $10,000 91 Day Treasury Bill at 99.347833:
Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 2.633%
Funds sourced from Schwab sweep account that pays .25%.
Matures on 11/10/22
B. Bought $7,000 1 Year Treasury Bill at 96.7644:
 |
| $2K - Fidelity Account |
 |
| $5K -Schwab Account |
The lower amount in my Fidelity account, compared to Schwab, is the higher current yield on funds held in the sweep accounts. {Fidelity at 1.71%; Schwab at .25%)
Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 3.325%
Matures 8/10/23:
I am now far less inclined to buy bonds in my Vanguard accounts. The sweep MM fund in those two accounts has a current 7 day yield of 2.1%.
3. Small Ball:
A. Bought 5 SNY at $48.9:
SNY SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
Website: Sanofi, an innovative global healthcare company - Sanofi
Last Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Eliminated SNY - Sold 20 at $54.04 (6/1/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $116.81, discussed the 2022 first quarter earnings report)-Item # 1.L. Added to SNY -Bought 10 at $47.8 (2/20/21 Post); Item # 1.A. Restarted SNY-Bought 10 at $48.35 (1/23/21 Post) I harvested two annual dividend payments, totaling $3.7 per share, on the 20 share lot.
Dividend: Sanofi ADS (SNY) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Annual Ex Dividend: 5/26/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Business E.P.S. = €1.73, up 25.4%.
Per Fidelity, the USD equivalent for the ADR was $.92 with the consensus estimate at $.87.
IFRS E.P.S. = €.94
IFRS: International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Definition
(Basically Europe's version of U.S. GAPP)
CER: Constant Exchange Rates
Reconciliation of IFRS to Business E.P.S. Numbers:
"In the second quarter of 2022, Sanofi sales were €10,116 million, up 15.7% on a reported basis. Exchange rate movements had a positive effect of 7.6 percentage points, mainly due to the U.S. dollar. At CER, company sales were up 8.1%."
The main product is Dupixent (collaboration with Regeneron) that generated a 43% increase in revenues to €1.963B.
As I have discussed in the past, Dupixent is the main reason why I will buy SNY shares. i
Unlike other major pharmaceutical companies, SNY has held onto its consumer products businesses:
Vaccines are a major business segment, but SNY failed in developing a Covid vaccine.
Revenues from rare disease drugs are growing:
SNY has a rare blood disorder drug portfolio, consisting of 4 compounds, that generated €336N in revenues
Other drugs with over €200M in revenues during the quarter:
Lantus: €600M =12.1% CER
Aubagio: €526, -2.2% CER
Lovenox: €337M -10.9% CER
Toujeo: €267M +2.4% CER
Plavix: €247M 0% CER
The earnings release also contains pipeline update information.
2022 Guidance: Business E.P.S. up 15% with a positive currency impact of 7.5%-8.5%
Goal: Harvest the annual dividend and a 3+% annualized profit on the shares.
Impact of EUR/USD: The ADR price has been hit by a decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate:
 |
| 1 Year: FR:SAN in Blue/SNY in Green |
B. Bought 5 HIW at $34.29; 5 at $33.4-Schwab Taxable Account:
History this Account:
Quote: Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW)- Office REIT
52 week high: $47.66, hit intraday on 11/5/21, with the highest 2022 closing price at $46.84 (1/7/22).
At June 30, 2022, HIW "owned or had an interest in
As of 6/30/22, properties were owned in 8 metropolitan areas, primarily in the southeastern U.S.: Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Richmond and Tampa. Subsequent to 6/30/22, HIW entered the Dallas market through the formation of a 50/50 joint venture.
Website: Highwoods
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Round-Trip: Item # 1.I. Eliminated HIW - Sold 7 at $47.22 (2/3/22 Post)($15.31 profit) - Item # 1.D. Added to HIW-Bought 2 at $43.32 (10/15/21 Post); Item # 1.I. Bought 5 HIW at $45.68 (9/3/21 Post) Based on a number of factors, I concluded that my entry points were too high.
Average cost per share: $33.84 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 per share, last raised from $.48 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment.
Yield at AC = 5.91%
Next Ex Dividend: 8/19/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): HIW Announces-Second Quarter 2022 Results.pdf
FFO per share = $1, up from $.93 in the 2021 second quarter.
Occupancy: 90.6%
2022 FFO per share guidance: $3.92 to $4, up from $3.82-$3.9.
I did not see a cash available for distribution (CAD) number in the press release. That number would deduct from FFO pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention and routine maintenance costs. Since the FFO number for the second quarter was $1, I would reasonably assume that the dividend is well covered by CAD.
C. Bought 10 ADX at $16.71-Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
I started to trade this CEF in 1984.
Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed Semi-Annual Shareholder Report for the period ending 6/30/22 (As of 6/30/22, cost at 1.468+B with the value at $2.121+B)
Top 10 Holdings as of 6/30/22:
Data Date of 8/2/22 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $19.31
Closing Market Price: $16.55
Discount: -14.29%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Sold 100 at $15.24 (5/22/19 Post) That post contains snapshots of the largest realized gains and some links to prior posts.
Recent Dividend History:
Principal Portfolio Changes in First Six Months of 2022:
ADX Realized Gains to Date: $3,172.46
That number does not include realized gains prior to 2008 when I started this blog.
D. Added 10 ADX at $16.68-Fidelity Account:
Current position: 20 shares with an AC of $14.29:
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 8/3/22 |
The prior 10 share purchase was on 4/3/20 at $11.89 Item # 3.H. Restarted ADX - Bought 10 at $11.9 (4/25/20 Post) I dropped the ball on adding more.
Since that purchase, ADX has paid $4.01 per share in dividends, mostly sourced from long term capital gains, which were not reinvested.
D. Eliminated VYGR - Sold 15 at $6.69:
Quote: Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (VYGR)
VYGR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Profit Snapshot = $43.16
YTD Trading Profits: $132.86
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.L. Eliminated VYGR in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $6.82 (7/13/22 Post); Item # 2.N. Pared VYGR in Fidelity Account- Sold 15 at $5.39 and Eliminated VYGR in Vanguard Account - Sold 20 at $5.42(3/10/22 Post)
Pipeline | Voyager Therapeutics None of the compounds have yet to enter trials. Losses will continue for a considerable period.
SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 3/31/22 (net loss of $21.2M, cash at $166.8M as of 3/31/22)
The shares popped after the company announced license agreements with Pfizer last October and with Novartis in March 2022. Voyager Therapeutics Announces License Option Agreement with Novartis; Voyager Therapeutics Announces License Option Agreement with Pfizer
E. Added 2 NTB at $33.18-Schwab Taxable:
Quote: Bank of Butterfield Ltd.
"Butterfield is a full-service bank and wealth manager headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, providing services to clients from Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Guernsey and Jersey, where our principal banking operations are located, and The Bahamas, Switzerland, Singapore and the United Kingdom, where we offer specialized financial services."
NTB SEC Filings (foreign company SEC forms)
NTB Analyst Estimates (As of 8/5/22, the 2022 average E.P.S. estimate was $4.18; at $4.83 in 2023; and at $5.5 in 2024)
Investor Relations: Butterfield Group
History this account:
Average cost per share this account = $25.15 (12 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share ($1.76 annually)
Yield at AC this account = 7%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/5/22 (owned all as of)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Started NTB-Bought 1 at $27.23; 9 at $26.9; 2 at $26.38; 1 at $25.79; 2 at $25.54; 5 at $25.2; 2 at $24.9; 2 at $24.7 (9/12/2020 Post); Item # 1.F. Added to NTB-Bought 2 at $23.15; 1 at $22; 1 at $21.9; 1 at $21.6 (10/10/20 Post) I currently own 18 shares in my Fidelity account with a $24.19 AC per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.99
GAAP Net Income = $49.1M
Core E.P.S. = $1.01, Up from $.80 in the 2021 second quarter.
NIM = 2.26%, up from 2.01% in the 2021 second quarter and 2.03% in the 2022 first quarter.
Core efficiency ratio = 60.2%
NPA Ratio: .5%
NPL Ratio: 1.2%
ROE = 24.5%
Core ROTE = 27.8%
Total Capital Ratio = 21.4%
Tangible Book Value per share = $14.61
NBT Realized Gains to Date = $118.84
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Pared NTB-Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares in Fidelity Account at $32.5 (12/5/2020 Post); Item # 1.J. Pared NTB-Sold 2 at $35 (2/6/21 Post)
F. Added 5 BDN at $8.93; 10 at 8.75; 15 at $8.58; 10 at $8.37-Schwab Taxable:
Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)
Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust
Properties as of 6/30/22:
Sourced: 10-Q at page 17 (debt discussed starting at page 22)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Restarted BDN - Bought 10 at $10.79 (5/26/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post.
Last Eliminated in this account at $13.51.
Average cost per share this account: $9.07 (60 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Brandywine Realty Trust Announces Tax Characteristics of Its 2021 Distributions
Yield at $9.07 AC this account: 8.38%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/5/22
Last Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
FFO of $60.5M or $.35 per share
Net Income to FFO reconciliation:
Core portfolio 89.6% occupied and 92.1% leased
"Rental Rate Mark-to-Market: Increased 18.4% / 7.8% on an accrual / cash basis"
2022 "Interest Expense Range: Increased from $70-72 million to $75 – 76 million."
I am critical of BDN's failure to provide CAD numbers. I reasonably suspect that the CAD per share covers the quarterly dividend of $.19 per share but do not know by how much given the reporting failure.
2022 Guidance: "Based on current plans and assumptions and subject to the risks and uncertainties more fully described in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, we are adjusting our 2022 earnings per share guidance of $0.17 - $0.25 per diluted share to $0.13 - $0.17 per diluted share and adjusting our 2022 FFO guidance of $1.37 - $1.45 per diluted share to $1.36 - $1.40 per diluted share"
The midpoint of the FFO guidance is $1.41 per share. Using that number, the P/FFO is 6.53 at $9.21. This tells me that investors who count do not value this stock based on the FFO numbers. The FFO does not deduct routine maintenance expenses, a significant amount for office REITs, and pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention which are also substantial for this REIT. The CAD per share number would be far below FFO per share.
BDN Realized Gains to Date: $440.52
G. Restarted BDN in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 5 at $8.82; 5 at $8.61; 5 at $8.34:
Previously Eliminated at $13.5 in this account.
Average cost per share this account: $8.59 (15 shares)
Yield at $8.59 = 8.85%
H. Added to RTL at $7.7-Fidelity Taxable:
Quote: Necessity Retail REIT Inc.
"As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned
Website: Necessity Retail REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: External
Last Substantive Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Added to RTL- Bought 2 at $7.35; 3 at $6.91 (5/19/22 Post)(discussed 2022 1st Q. report); Item # 3.E. Added 5 RTL at $7.14 (3/17/22 Post)(discussed 2021 4th Q report); Item # 2.L. Added 30 AFIN at $8.21 (11/5/21 Post)(symbol later changed to RTL)
Average Cost per share this account: $8.08 (151+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 ($.85 annually)
RTL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $8.08: 10.52%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/8/22
2022 Major Transformation:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q
Revenues: $116.929M
FFO per share: $.27
AFFO per share: $.29
Net Income to FFO to AFFO Reconciliation:
90.8% Leased with an average weighted lease term of 7.2 year
61.6% of leases "have weighted-average contractual rent increases of 1.0% based on annualized straight-line rent which increase the cash that is due under these leases over time" I did not find this statement helpful since it is ambiguous on the timing of rent increases. I assume annual increases but that is not stated.
% Fixed Rate Debt = 82.5%
Weighted average interest rate: 3.8%
I. Added 2 CFG at $36.73-Schwab Taxable:
Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
CFG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Average cost per share this account: $37.54
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.68 annually).
Yield at AC = 4.4752%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/1/22
I discussed this stock in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.F. Bought 3 CFG at $37.34 - Schwab Taxable Account (8/2/22 Post)
J. Eliminated PLUG-Sold 10 at $23.8:
Quote: Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)
52 Week High at $46.5, hit intraday on 11/21/21
In its core business, Plug Power provides "commercially-viable hydrogen and fuel cell product solutions to replace lead-acid batteries in electric material handling vehicles and industrial trucks for some of the world’s largest retail-distribution and manufacturing businesses. We are focusing our efforts on industrial mobility applications, including electric forklifts and electric industrial vehicles, at multi-shift high volume manufacturing and high throughput distribution sites".
Chart: Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Interactive Stock Chart Bear Market Trend starting in early February 2021. Experienced a massive parabolic up move from around $3 in February 2020 to $68+ in January 2021, followed by a waterfall decline to $23 in April 2021. Possible bottom formation in March-July in the $15 to $20 range.
SEC Filed Investor Presentation June 2022
PLUG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$19.03
I have previously discussed this stock only in a comment.
PLUG is a potential winner in the recently passed climate change bill opposed by all Senate and House republicans.
Possibly, that legislation will speed up the time it takes for this company to earn its first GAAP profit. I have far more confidence that PLUG will beat Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd. (MAXN), another unprofitable company that I recently eliminated, to the first profitable quarter.
PLUG currently has over 579M shares outstanding.
PLUG may breakeven on a non-GAAP E.P.S. basis in 2024 or 2025.
Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP Loss of $156.489M or ($.27 per share)
Net Revenue: $140.804M, up from $71.958M in the 2021 first quarter.
I would not hazard a guess on when PLUG will earn a GAAP profit.
K. Bought 5 VNO at $28.43; 2 at $27.51- Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
52 week high: $47.26, hit on 3/11/22
Chart-My Opinion: Long Term Bear Market starting in January 2015. Persistent decline of lower highs and lower lows starting in 2/2017 through 1/2020, followed by waterfall decline in February-March 2020 in response to the pandemic with lows hit near $29, followed by a failed rally up to $46+ and then back down to test the pandemic lows hit in March 2020. Highs in $90-$98 range reached in February 2007 and January 2015. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Interactive Stock Chart
As of 12/31/22, VNO own all or part of the following properties:
2021 Property Dispositions:
On June 17, 2022, VNO "sold the Center Building, an eight-story
Occupancy as of 6/30/22:
 |
| 10-Q at page 51 |
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Started VNO in Fidelity Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $28.26 (7/6/22 Post)
The 5 share lot was bought shortly before the ex dividend date and the 2 share lot subsequent thereto.
Average cost per share this account: $28.17 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.53 per share ($2.12 annually), cut from $.66 to $.53 per share effective for the 2020 third quarter payment.
Yield at $28.17: 7.5257%
Last Ex dividend: 8/5/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
FFO per share = $.80, unchanged from the 2021 second quarter. The main adjustments to net income are to deduct depreciation and the net gain from selling real estate.
Revenues: $453.494M
GAAP Net Income attributable to common share owners = $50.518M or $.26 E.P.S.
There are two key risks IMO that are negatively impacting the stock price: (1) VNO's debt level and the heavy use of variable rate debt whose coupons fluctuate at spreads to short term rates (p. 30) and (2) the pandemic and the uncertainties created by the pandemic including whether occupancy levels will trend down on a non-temporary basis (WFH -Work From Home).
L. Eliminated SEM in Schwab Account - Sold 20+ at $29.69:
Quote: Select Medical Holdings Corp.
52 week high at $37.08, hit intraday on 9/30/21
"Select Medical is one of the largest operators of critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States based on number of facilities. Select Medical’s reportable segments include the critical illness recovery hospital segment, the rehabilitation hospital segment, the outpatient rehabilitation segment, and the Concentra segment. As of June 30, 2022, Select Medical operated 105 critical illness recovery hospitals in 28 states, 31 rehabilitation hospitals in 12 states, and 1,920 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 38 states and the District of Columbia. Concentra operated 518 occupational health centers in 41 states. At June 30, 2022, Select Medical had operations in 46 states and the District of Columbia."
SEM Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
I have been disappointed with SEM's earnings reports since I first purchased shares. I am keeping for now 60 shares owned in my Fidelity account.
Profit Snapshot: +$18.05
Last Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to Falling Knife SEM- Bought 5 at $22.01 (2/17/22 Post)
Website: Investor Relations | Select Medical
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. at $.43
Consensus at $.553 per Fidelity
The two primary reasons for this earnings miss are (1) lower payments made under the "Cares Act" Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund, also referred to as the Provider Relief Fund, and (2) input cost inflation, most notably in wages.
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2022, "income from operations included $15.1 million of other operating income related to the recognition of payments received" under the Provider Relief Fund, compared to $98.0 million" for the 2021 second quarter.
The cost pressure problem was noted in a warning about the 2021 4th quarter earnings. SEC Filed Press Release (1/17/22).
I am still reasonably confident that SEM will work on a long term basis, just a rational guess IMO given the aging baby boomer population, so I am keeping 60 shares where my cost basis is near breakeven on a total return basis.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV)
ReplyDelete$23.22 +$2.53 +12.23%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/matv?mod=search_symbol
This was in response to the 2nd quarter earnings report which I will discuss in my next post:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000623/000100062322000057/ex991q22022earningsrelease.htm
I had a question about the dividend after Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc. and Neenah Papers combined during the second quarter. The new quarterly dividend rate will be $.40 per share.
Last Discussion:
Item # 2D. Added 5 MATV at $21.65; 5 at $20.75:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/07/aod-bbdc-bdn-cowz-dov-etn-hpp-matv-mrk.html
In that account, I own 25 shares with an AC of $23.01 which gives me a 6.95% dividend yield.
I will be discussing in the next post a purchase of 14 shares, at a lower AC, in another account.
++
SNY, discussed in this post, declined 7.11% to close at $45.2.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sny?mod=search_symbol
That was in reaction to SNY agreeing to a worldwide clinical hold assessing tolebrutinib in relapsing MS:
https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-releases/2022/2022-08-08-17-08-40-2494173
The FDA had previously placed a hold on 6/30/22 but other countries had allowed the trials to continue once patients with preexisting liver conditions were excluded.
https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-releases/2022/2022-06-30-05-30-00-2471767
I added another 5 SNY today.
Interesting on SNY and MS drug!
DeleteThe decline in the SNY price is accelerating in pre-market trading today:
ReplyDeleteSanofi ADR (SNY)
PREMARKET
$41.27 -$3.95 -8.74%
Before Hours Volume: 1.8M
Last Updated: Aug 11, 2022 at 8:21 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sny?mod=search_symbol
The fear is that SNY will face massive litigation losses on its recalled heartburn drug Zantac.
The litigation section of a drug firm's annual report is generally several pages long. The Zantac litigation is discussed at page F-81 in the massive 2021 SNY Annual Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1121404/000112140422000007/sny-20211231.htm
The claim is that over-the-counter Zantac "contains or can generate the chemical N-Nitrosodimethylamine (“NDMA”), an alleged human carcinogen."
The first trial is scheduled to start later this month.
This issue was brought to the forefront by a MS analyst claiming that damages could possibly be between $10.5B to $45B based on similar settlements in the past. Given the huge range, that forecast is pure speculation IMO.
I will take my SNY position up to 20 shares which is all that I am willing to risk. I am at 10 shares now and may add 5 more today ($40-$41 price range) or wait until the price falls below $40.
That problem these days is you can't buy into a single item. Each company is a big mix, in industrials and foods too.
DeleteThe Trump search warrant only cites 1 of 3 criminal statutes mentioned in this post (see Attachment B of the Search Warrant)
ReplyDeleteThe other two statutes are:
18 USC § 793 Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793
§793 is better known ast the Espionage Act that became law during WWI, decades before President Truman created the classification system by Executive Order. Imprisonment for a conviction can result in up to 10 years in prison. So including this statute as of the possible crimes is interesting and raises all kind of possible nefarious scenarios.
18 U.S. Code § 1519 - Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in Federal investigations and bankruptcy
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1519
None of the potential crimes cited in the search warrant depend on whether the documents are classified, which is irrelevant to a conviction under them.
He looks cornered. After the last few years, it's hard to believe. Media keeps looking for ways to criticize Garland, and continue their frustration that he's been slow to act and quiet. Both traits his job requires.
DeleteLand: I doubt that Trump will be criminally charged with any of the crimes mentioned in the search warrant. Possibly one of his lawyers or someone else will be. One possible charge could be obstructing justice in responding to the Grand Jury subpoena with one or more Trump lawyers signing a statement in June that Trump did not have any additional documents marked classified which was not true as shown by the receipt for documents seized pursuant to the search warrant.
DeleteTrump is for all practical purposes above the law, IMO, since charging him with any crime, irrespective of the evidence, other than murder, rape or similar heinous crimes, would cause far too many problems given the very large number of violence prone and well armed members of the Trump cult.
In accordance with its long standing practices, the DOJ is not going to release the affidavits used to establish probable cause until Trump is either indicted and the defense files a discovery motion or a decision is made to refrain from seeking an indictment with Trump consenting to the release (possibly some redactions to protect the identify of a confidential source)
I see Garland not hesitating to charge if it's appropriate to his actions. Garland won't take violence possibilities into account.
DeleteBut his inner circle can sign that Trump didn't know the boxes were there & it was someone else's doing.
The other is same as he escaped in NY. Bribe or blackmail someone key in the process. That's the one I'm concerned about.
Only a few thousand (was it in thousands?) showed up for J6. For all the energy of armed followers, that's all he mustered. I'm hoping that's good reflection of more bluster than action.
It wasn't the 5 million in pink eared hats.
I didn't see what was exciting about the CPI report. It wasn't different enough to claim a slow down. At 8+% that's still dangerous inflation in a max 4-5% loan rate environment.
ReplyDeleteWith oil futures up, the future betting is on more inflation even if short term #s are down. Of course they could be wrong.
----
Is part of why you're moving so much to divs investments with principle preservation... because there's possibility of a crash that stays down for much longer time than the last two (more similar to 1930)?
You're in preservation stage...but wondering if that possibility is nagging in the background and driving the change?
---
I would not want to be the one to tape together papers recovered from his toilet. It explains his obsession with 11 flush toilets.
It's been a busy news week. With stuff I don't mind watching. Though it's scary who has want classified info from around the world.
ReplyDeleteI have more optimism that this will go somewhere. McConnell is surely encouraging to get him taken out.
I'm trying to store up energy so I'll be ready to canvass in the fall. Whatever it helps, it's worth it. Agree, Gingrich is a critical start with this descending pathway. Nixon and McCarthy before that brought authoritarianism in too. Gingrich was a family values, while leaving one of his wives as she died of cancer.
Instead of missing tapes like Nixon, it's found boxes this time.
(Did I post this? I just found it unposted.
Land: From my perspective, the Republican Party has become as crazy as Donald.
DeleteI noticed that the republican candidate for Attorney General in Maryland Michael Anthony Peroutka claimed that controlled demolitions brought down the World Trade Center on 9/11.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/31/politics/kfile-maryland-attorney-general-9-11-conspiracies/index.html
And for governor, the GOP nominated Dan Cox, a promoter of fact free election conspiracy claims who recommended that Donald seize voting machines and called Mike Pence a traitor for doing his constitutional ministerial duty on 1/6.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/politics/dan-cox-maryland-republican-governor-election/index.html
This kind of nonsense is the norm now among republicans, nothing but fact free, braid dead and ridiculous conspiracy theories, demagoguery, disrespect for legal and other norms, flagrant and unjustified attacks on the FBI, an unquenchable thirst for power regardless of the short or long term consequences, a strong tilt toward authoritarianism, and an unwavering support for narcissistic psychopath no matter what he does. It is important IMO to quit calling these people American conservatives, no matter how many times they wrap themselves in a flag.
The good thing about MD voting is that the democrats or at most moderate GOP win. So as batty as the AG & Cox candidates are, they're dead in the water already.
DeleteMichael Steele is more indicative of a GOP who can win in MD.
The line of Republican governors started with Kathleen Kennedy Towson as LG. She was so awful, that when she ran for G, everyone voted for "not her." There have been decent DNC options since, but they don't get the funding and frontrunner status.
Once on the county executive general election ballot was a GOP competition that firmly believed MD's **primary** problem was not spending enough to explore extraterrestrials.
As for the GOP... it's turned into a dictatorship training camp party. You've listed all the amply problems.
Who's calling it a conservative party? It's the party of Maga's with all that entails.
We need a conservative party to appear. I vote blue but I don't like their far left. We need the checks and balances so the moderate policies can win.
I've been working on an excel spreadsheet all week on when and what pattern to convert 401k to roth. Met with a team that specializes it in, Craig Wear. At $6500, I'm not jumping to buy their computer modeling and CPA services. But it's tempting and I learned much in the meeting.
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/08/bhbbmrn-cizn-htbk-matv-nwfl-ofs-ohi.html
I am caught up discussing my stock trades. I am engaged in meaningless activity in stock land.
My main focus remains increasing my interest income through treasury and investment grade corporate bond purchases.
Caught up? That's impressive. Seemed like it'd take a while.
DeleteI'm still in a holding pattern with probably 70% in cash / bonds. I missed chasing this rally. If it continues and breaks out, oh well, I'll join then.
Energy is down. But that yield inversion is lasting. things aren't right in the economic world.