AMKBY, COWZ, CPF, DIR.UN:CA, FHB, HPP, MAC, ORAN, VNO, SJR, SLG

Economy: 

The government's final estimate for 1st quarter real GDP was -1.6%, up from -1.5% in the prior estimate. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), First Quarter 2022 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "The PCE price index increased 7.1 percent (revised), compared with an increase of 6.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 5.2 percent (revised), compared with an increase of 5.0 percent." (emphasis supplied). 

Real personal consumption expenditures were up 1.8%, which was revised down from 3.1% in the prior estimate. 

The negative real GDP number was generated by decreases in exports, federal spending, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and an increase in imports which is treated as a subtraction from GDP. 

Since real consumer spending was still positive in the first quarter, as was nonresidential and residential fixed investments. Consequently, I would not label the first quarter as a recession but as a strong slowdown from the 2021 4th quarter with the trend consistent with a recession forming within the next 6 months. 

Personal Income and Outlays, May 2022 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): "The PCE price index for May increased 6.3 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 35.8 percent while food prices increased 11.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for May increased 4.7 percent from one year ago."  

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini | The Guardian Roubini is describing a doomsday economic scenario that is unfolding now in this opinion column. 

ISM manufacturing PMI index for June was reported at 53%, down from 56.1% in May. The new orders component declined to 49.1% from 55.1%. Any number below 50 indicates a contraction. Employment decreased to 47.3% from 49.6%. The price component was 78.5%.  

Here's how far house prices are set to fall as rates go up, according to forecasting firm - MarketWatch The forecasting company, Capitol Economics, expects about a 5% decline in the U.S. home prices, noting that mortgage applications are already down 28% from their peak; new home sales are off 17%; and housing starts down 13%. Home prices have made first home purchases unaffordable for median income households trying to buy a median price home. 

The second quarter earnings season is about to begin. I would anticipate that the earnings reports, and particularly the forward guidance, will add to the Stock Jocks' anxiety levels. 

Yesterday, the 2, 3, 5 and 10 year Treasury notes closed with the same yield. 

The 2 year treasury yield has started to temporarily invert with the ten year. Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again

Shortly before I published this post, the two and ten year treasury yields were at 2.792% and 2.769% respectively, so there is currently an inversion. 

There was a significant drop the WTI price yesterday. Inflation will have to fix itself since the FED is not going to raise the FF rate high enough to materially reduce problematic inflationary pressures. 

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Trump's Secret Service Detail Was 'Aligned' With Him, Says Author Several Secret Service agents were "very, very close" to Trump and widely seen as his enablers according to Carol Leonnig who just published a book on the Secret Service. Zero Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Secret Service Ms. Leonnig also claims that many in Trump's Secret Service detail were cheering on the insurrectionists on 1/6. Trump's Secret Service Detail 'Cheered on the Insurrection'

Carol Leonnig: Tony Ornato Has Said A Lot Of Things Didn't Happen - YouTube If Ornato wants to dispute part of Cassidy's sworn testimony, he needs to do so under oath. 

Accounts of Trump angrily demanding to go to Capitol on January 6 circulated in Secret Service over past year This is the important point, not whether he got into an altercation with the Secret Service when his security detail refused to take him to the Capitol. Don the Authoritarian wanted to lead the armed mob into the Capitol as part of a last ditch attempt to prevent Biden from becoming President. 

Demagogue Don called Cassidy Hutchinson a "whack job" with "mental problems", a "Total Phony!!!" and a "third rate social climber". Donald Trump Rages Over Cassidy Hutchinson's Damning Testimony Trump says Mark Meadows aide Cassidy Hutchinson has 'mental problems' in post-hearing interview | Daily Mail Online Trump's verbal and venomous assault aimed at Cassidy is just one method that he uses to intimidate witnesses from giving truthful testimony that he does not like. How Trump World pressures witnesses to deny his possible wrongdoing - The Washington Post

The Supreme Court has decided to review a case that will allow it to overturn prior precedent that the state courts have the authority to determine whether state actions relating to elections can be reviewed for their constitutionality under state constitutions. Supreme Court to consider radical independent legislature theory; Supreme Court to hear case on GOP ‘independent legislature’ theory that could radically reshape elections - POLITICO; Democracy advocates raise alarm after Supreme Court takes election case - The Washington Post 

Republicans believe that the U.S. Constitution gives them the authority to do whatever they want in Republican controlled state legislatures when it comes to elections. They want the 6 Republican Justices to validate that opinion which is called the The ‘"Independent State Legislature Theory, Brennan Center for Justice. 

Republicans control 30 state legislatures including several that are at least capable of electing a Democrat President and Democrat Senators. (e.g. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona) 

A reversal of long standing precedent, which recognized that state courts have the power under their state Constitutions to review matters relating to elections, including those at the federal level, would just be another tool for Trump's Anti-Democracy party to restrict voting rights, to interfere in the vote counting process, or to even throw out the election results altogether based on unproven and/or demonstrably false allegations of fraud. All of those actions are defended as efforts to save the nation's democracy. 

It needs to be remembered that 126 House Republicans in Congress and 17 Republican controlled states joined in a Supreme Court petition requesting the cancellation of the 2020 certified vote counts in 4 states won by Biden and then to grant the republican controlled legislatures in those states the authority to appoint the electors. House Members Who Signed a Brief Asking the Supreme Court to Consider Overturning the Election | Represent | ProPublica; 17 Republican States tell Supreme Court they support Texas bid to reverse Biden win

Petition at page 35.pdf This petition is further proof of a strong authoritarian mindset among republicans that has only become stronger and more prevalent when I first recognized that  tendency during the Nixon presidency.  

Four Republican Justices have previously expressed sympathy for supporting what their Republican colleagues in state legislatures want to do now. Opinion | A Supreme Court gerrymandering case could further undermine democracy - The Washington Post   

The republicans on the Supreme Court have decided to block an EPA effort, just in its infancy, to combat climate change. Supreme Court rules for coal-producing states, limits EPA - Los Angeles Times; West Virginia v. EPA (Sup.CT. 6/30/2022) The six Republican Justices, relying on what is known as the Major Questions Doctrine, which was invented by the Republican Justices, decided that the language in the Clean Air Act that grants the EPA the authority to develop the "best system for emission reduction" does not grant the agency the right to develop a plan. 42 U.S. Code § 7411 It is now up to Congress to act which of course will be prevented by the Republicans in the House and Senate. Supreme Court limits EPA authority to set power plant climate standards; Supreme Court curtails EPA’s authority to fight climate change - SCOTUSblog; Summer in America is becoming hotter, longer and more dangerous - The Washington Post

Trump Documentary Maker Now Has 2 Armed Guards After Jan. 6 Evidence

The 4 Republican Justices on Wisconsin's Supreme Court, a majority by 1 vote, validated a republican strategy to remain in power when a Democrat is elected as governor. Wisconsin Court Validates a Republican Strategy to Preserve Power - The New York Times The tactic involves a refusal to confirm the Democrat Governor's appointees to administrative agencies and then for Republicans to stay in those positions even after their term expires.  The Republican Justices sanctioned that tactic. 

Russian missiles kill at least 19 in Ukraine’s Odesa region Russia intentionally struck an apartment building, murdering civilians. 

How the Russian Media Spread False Claims About Ukrainian Nazis - The New York Times

In Putin’s Russia, the Arrests Are Spreading Quickly and Widely - The New York Times  Russia is now arresting people who have some ability to think for themselves. An example is Dmitri Kolker, a physicist, who was arrested by the F.S.B. while in a hospital's intensive care ward located in Siberia. He was dying from cancer and was too weak to eat. Putin had him arrested while he was dying, forcibly took him to Moscow where he died in custody, and then his family had to return the body at their own cost. The F.S.B. is Russia's version of the Gestapo and SS rolled into one package. If Russians wants to find Nazis in Ukraine, they only need to look in the mirror.   

++++++

1. Bought 100 DIR.UN:CA at C$12.23 (C$1 IB Commission): 

Quote: Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto) 

Website: Dream Industrial REIT

Real Estate "As at March 31, 2022, Dream Industrial REIT owns, manages and operates a portfolio of 244 industrial assets (358 buildings) comprising approximately 44.4 million square feet of gross leasable area in key markets across Canada, Europe, and the U.S."

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Monthly Income Generation

DIR.UN:CA 1 Year Chart as of 6/27/22: 

I thought that it was at least possible that a bottom was forming near C$12.  

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Bought 100 DIR.UN:CA at C$8.83 (4/4/20 Post) I still own that lot. 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 DIR.UN:CA at $11.92 (4/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$219)

Dividend: Monthly at C$.0583 per unit (C$.70 annually)

Yield at C$12.23 (100 Units): 5.72%

Yield at AC of C$10.54 (200 units) = 6.64% 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Dream Industrial REIT Reports Q1 2022 Financial Results and Strong Year-over-year Growth 

All $ amounts are in CADs. 

FFO = $56.638M

FFO per share = $.22

Occupancy Rate = 97.6%

Debt to Assets Ratio = 25.8%

DBRS Credit Rating: BBB

Weighted Average Debt Maturity: 3.5 years 

Weighted Average Interest Rate: .85% (going up)  

Net Asset value per share: $16.48 

2. Eliminated ORAN - Sold 100 at $11.77: 

Quotes: 

USDs: Orange ADR

Euros: Orange (France: Euronext Paris)

ADR Ratio 1 to 1 

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe 

Website: Orange

ORAN SEC Filings (foreign company filings)

2021 Annual Report 

ORAN.PA - Orange SA Key Metrics | Reuters

I decided to eliminate this position after receiving the semi-annual dividend. 

Profit Snapshot: $29.95

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.I. Added 10 ORAN at $10.48 (12/31/21 Post); 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 20 ORAN at $12.43 (3/10/22 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to ORAN-Bought 10 at $11.11 (8/12/21)

Last Financial Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filing This filing does not include a net income number which is disclosed semiannually. The filing does contain revenue numbers for the first quarter and this guidance for 2022: 

I do not approve of European companies providing bare bones reports for two quarters.  

3. Eliminated SJR - Sold 30 at $29.48:

Quotes: 

USD: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)

CADs: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (Canada: Toronto)

Investor Relations

Shaw Communications Inc (USA) Profile | Reuters

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.E. Added to SJR-Bought 2 at $18; 1 at $17.95; 1 at $16.61;  1 at $16.2 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 3.D. Added 5 SJR at $16.88; 5 at $16.4; 5 at $15.8; 1 at $12.48 (4/11/20 Post)

I decided to exit this position since I no longer view it as worthwhile to wait and see whether  Canada will allow Rogers Communications to acquire Shaw. This is an all cash deal at C$40.5 per SJR share. SEC Filed Press Release The CAD has recently declined in value against the USD.

A Canadian regulatory agency has filed a petition to stop the merger. Rogers has agreed to make a major concession to address Canada's competition concerns. Rogers, Shaw and Quebecor Announce Agreement for Sale of Freedom Mobile (6/17/22). The parties are currently in mediation in an effort to resolve the remaining issues. Rogers And Shaw Agree To Mediation With Competition Bureau (6/27/22); If Competition Bureau loses case against Rogers-Shaw, it will be an indictment of legal system: Competition law expert - Video - BNN. The mediation announcement resulted in about a US$3 price increase as SJR recovered what it lost when Canada initiated its lawsuit. 

Given the uncertainty, the SJR USD price narrowing its discount to the C$40.5 cash offer, and the overall difficulty in meeting my annual goal of realized gains, I decided that I would not risk my remaining profit. 

Profit Snapshot: $412.65 (7/1/22 sale only)

Dividend: Monthly at C$.09875 per share (class B shares)

Last Earnings Report (fiscal quarter ending 5/31/22): Shaw Announces Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal 2022 SJR earnings become important only if the deal falls through. 

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Sold 4 SJR at $30.72 (4/14/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.38); Item # 2.H. Pared SJR in Fidelity Account -Sold All Shares with a cost basis of $18 or higher (11/26/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $355.93); Item #1.J. Sold All Shares Purchased with Dividends at $26.36 and at $26.52-Turned Off Reinvestment (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot  = $61.22): Item # 3.B. Sold 50 SJR at $20.85-Highest Cost Lot (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot $34.16)  

Prior Profit Snapshots from 2021: Almost all of the prior realized gains occurred after Shaw agreed to be acquired.

Taxable Account Fidelity

RI Account at Fidelity

Vanguard RI Account Part 1 

Vanguard RI Account Part 2

SJR Realized Gains to Date: $2,013.48

I will consider repurchasing SJR only if the merger falls apart and the SJR price has declined below $18. 

4. Corporate Bonds: 

A. Bought 2 Enbridge 2.15% SU Maturing on 2/16/24 at a Total Cost of 98.151: 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Prospectus Offered last February.  

Issuer: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)

Last Earnings Report: Q/E 3/31/22 

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+ 

I now own 4 bonds. The prior purchase was at a 98.78 total cost. Item # 1.D. When the maturity is less than two years away, the bond is high quality, and it is unlikely that a MM fund will generate more income over the same term, I do not require much of a price decline to buy more. 

YTM at TC = 3.258%

Current Yield at TC:  2.19%

I also own the common shares and have been paring my position. Item # 6.A, Pared ENB in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $46.77 (4/28/22 Post); Item # 3.F. Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $42.4 (3/17/22 Post); Item 1.F. Pared ENB - Sold 3 at $42.18 (2/3/2022 Post)

B. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 3.125% SU Maturing on 6/30/23 at Par Value-Fidelity Corporate Notes Program: 

Issuer: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) 

GS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filed 2022 First Quarter Earnings Report (net earnings of $3.94B)

Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+

C. Bought 1 Citigroup 3.65% SU Maturing on 5/31/24 at Par Value-Fidelity Corporate Notes Program: 

Issuer:  Citigroup Inc.  (C) 

C Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Earnings Report Q/E 3/31/22 

Credit Ratings: A3/A

D. Bought 2 Equinor 2.65% SU Maturing on 1/15/24: 

Issuer: Equinor ASA ADR (EQNR) (formerly known as Statoil)

Norway owns about 67% of the common stock.  Our shareholders - Equinor

EQNR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FINRA Page Bond Detail

Credit Ratings: Aa2/AA -

YTM at Total Cost of 99.765 = 2.798%

Current Yield at TC = 2.66%, rounded up

E. Bought 1 Becton Dickinson 3.263% SU Maturing on 6/6/24 at a Total Cost of 99.17: 

Purchased on 6/22/22, discussed out of time order.  

Issuer: Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX) 

BDX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

FWP Prospectus 

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 3.808%

Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.29%

F. Bought 2 Capital One 2.6% SU Maturing on 5/11/23 at a Total Cost of 99.342: 

Purchased on 6/24/22, discussed out of time order. 

Issuer: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) 

COF Analyst Estimates 

COF SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/22 (net income of $2.4B)

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB

YTM at Total Cost = 3.37%, rounded down. 

Current yield at TC = 2.62%, rounded up. 

Last Bond Offerings (May 2022): Prospectus 

G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/24 at 98.674: 

Purchased 6/24/22, discussed out of time order. 

YTM at Total Cost = 2.994%

Current Yield at TC = 2.28%

I now own 2 bonds. The prior purchase was on 4/21/22 at 99.0915. 

H. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 8/15/23 at 99.511: 

Purchased 6/27/22. Discussed out of time order.  

YTM at Total Cost = 2.94%

Current Yield at TC = 2.5122%

I. Bought 1 Treasury 2.875% Coupon Maturing on 11/30/23 at 99.8: 

Purchased 6/27/22. Discussed out of time order. 

YTM at Total Cost: 3.01883%

Current Yield at TC: 2.88%

I am buying treasuries in the secondary market only at discounts to par value. The price for this bond only recently declined below par value Previously, I had bought the 2.125% note maturing on 11/30/23. Provided the YTMs are comparable, I will not buy more of the 2.125% coupon bond, preferring to go under those circumstances with the higher current yield. 

J. Bought $10K 56 Day T Bill at Auction-Schwab Account: 

The purchase was sourced from Schwab's sweep account that currently pays .15%.  

Investment Rate (coupon equivalent) = 1.65%

K. Bought 5 Merchants Bank 2% CDs Maturing on 10/12/22: 

This is a 3 month CD that pays more than the 3 month treasury bill. 

L. Baltimore Gas and Electric 2.8% SU Maturing on 8/15/22 Redeemed at Par: 

Credit Ratings: A3/A

This utility is a wholly owned subsidiary of Exelon Corp. (EXC). 

EXC 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Item # 1.C. Bought 2 Baltimore Gas and Electric 2.8% SU at a 99.46 Total Cost (3/28/17 Post) The YTM was then at 2.908% with the five year treasury at 2.13% (3/14/17 date of purchase, 2017 Treasury Yield Curve Yields). The five year treasury closed yesterday at 2.82% yield. An "A" rated corporate bond maturing in about 5 years will generally fall now in a 3.6% to 4.1% yield range.  

Examples at yesterday's closing prices:  

American Water Capital 2.95% SU Maturing on 9/1/27: YTM at 4.045% rated at A by S&P

Public Storage 3.084% SU Maturing on 9/15/27: YTM at 3.986%, rated A by S&P  

Union Electric 2.95% SU Maturing on 6/15/27: YTM at 3.735%, rated A by S&P 

Kimberly Clark 1.05% SU Maturing on 9/15/27: YTM at 3.603%, rated A by S&P

Public Service Electric and Gas 3% First Mortgage Maturing on 5/15/27: YTM at 3.677%, rated at A.

 

5. Small Ball-All About Risk Mitigation in a Dicey Stock Market: 

Starting on 7/1/22, I am switching into a net buying mode for dividend paying common stocks, though the total purchase amount will be limited on a monthly basis. The recent price decline in dividend paying stocks have made them slightly more attractive to me. 

Both the dollar commitment and limit each month will be the total of dividend and interest payments in the prior month. I will compute that total later today. 

This is a similar strategy followed in the October 2008 to February 2009 time frame. This approach forces me to buy when I am otherwise reluctant to do so. 

A slightly more aggressive posture is to add net proceeds from selling stocks, which I will do starting this month. So far, I have sold one stock, SJR, that generated $884.37 in proceeds, which is discussed in Item #3 above.  

I will redirect all bond redemption proceeds, but not the interest payments, into more bond purchases. 

A. Started VNO with a 5 share buy at $28.26: 

Quote: Vornado Realty Trust  (VNO)  

VNO SEC Filings 

Subsequent purchases will be 10 shares or less, and each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

Maximum Position: 100 shares

Current Position: 5 shares 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.53 per share ($2.12 per share), cut from $.66 to $.53 per share effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. 

VNO Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $28.26: 7.5%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/6/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): and Supplemental 

FFO per share at $.79, up from $.65 in the 2021 first quarter

Revenues: $442.130M

The primary adjustment to net income is to add back depreciation. The company does not provide an AFFO calculation which would deduct routine maintenance costs and non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention. For an Office REIT, AFFO per share would be substantially lower than FFO. 

The adjusted FFO per share was reported at $.80, which assumes the conversion of dilutive convertible securities. 

Top 30 Tenants as of 3/31/22: 

Debt: There is a lot of variable debt that will increase based on spreads to short term rates. Increases in short term interest costs is now inevitable which will unfavorably impact VNO's FFO:   

Subsequent to the quarter's end, VNO signed an agreement to "sell the Center Building, an eight-story 498,000 square foot office building located at 3300 Northern Boulevard in Long Island City, New York, for $172,750,000. We expect to close the sale in the third quarter of 2022 and recognize a financial statement gain of approximately $15,000,000 and a tax gain of approximately $74,000,000." Page 39, 10-Q 

B. Bought 1 SLG at $47 (on the monthly ex dividend date); 1 at $45.6 (after the ex dividend date):

Quote: SL Green Realty Corp.

SLG SEC Filings

Properties

Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Monthly Income Generation

I am averaging down in 1 share lots. At below $45, I will start buying 2 share lots. 

I discussed the 2022 first quarter report here: Item # 2.N. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $62.25, 1 at $59.95 (5/26/22 Pos)

New Average Cost per share: $58.93 (17+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.3108 per share ($3.7 annually, rounded down)

Dividend History | SL Green Realty Corp.

Yield at AC = 6.28%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend:  6/29/22

C. Started HPP with a 5 share purchase at $15.26: 

Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.  (HPP) 

Website: Hudson Pacific Properties: A West Coast Real Estate Group

HPP SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report 

Properties as of 3/31/22: 

10-Q at page 15 (Debt is discussed at pages 27-29.  I view the level as worrisome)  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share 

Yield at $15.26: 6.55%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/16/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release and  Supplemental 

"FFO, excluding specified items, increased 2.3% to $75.2 million and 3.0% to $0.50 per diluted share. Specified items consist of a trade name non-cash impairment of $8.5 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, and transaction-related expenses of $0.3 million, or $0.00 per diluted share"

AFFO = $58.6M, up 11.8%

AFFO per share = $.3928 (using 149.188M weighted average HPP diluted shares)

AFFO Calculation: Non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention and maintenance expenditures are deducted from FFO while non-cash compensation is added back. 

Quarterly dividend per diluted share = $.25

Total Revenues: $244.513M

2022 guidance: Ex-Items FFO per share $2.02-$2.08

I previously discussed buying HPP's preferred stock. Item #2.K. Bought 5 HPPPRC at $17.36  (6/1/22 Post) 

D. Added to COWZ - Bought 1 at $43.75: 

Quote: Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview 

This ETF starts with the Russell 1000 and selects the 100 companies that have the highest, trailing 12 month free cash flow yields. The stocks are weighted by free cash flow yields with each stock's weighting capped at 2% when the fund is rebalanced. 

Sponsor's Website: COWZ | Pacer ETFs

Expense Ratio: .49%

Last Discussed: Item # 2.K Bought 2 COWZ at $46.95 (12/10/21 Post) 

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate

Last 4 dividends: $.82 per share (rounded down)

Average cost per share this account: $45.91 (4 shares)

Yield at AC this account: 1.79%, rounded up. 

E. Added 3 FHB at $22.74: 

Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)

FHB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FHB SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

2021 Annual Report 

SEC Filed Investor Presentation 

Properties: Owns some valuable Hawaiian real estate. 

2021 Annual Report at p.40

Last Sell Discussion this account: Item # 3.B Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold Highest Cost 11 Shares at $29.21 (3/17/22 Post) (Profit Snapshot = $78.07) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter earnings report in that post. 

Average cost per share before add: $15.83 (32+ shares) 

Average cost per share after add: $16.42 (35+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/1/22 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2019 first quarter payment.  

Yield at $16.42 = 6.3337%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/20/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): First Hawaiian (FHB) SEC Filed Press Release 

Net income of $57.7M or $.45 per share with the consensus at $.443 per Fidelity; 

NIM = 2.42%, down from 2.55% in the 2021 first quarter; 

Efficiency ratio = 59.04%; 

NPL ratio = .07%; 

ROA = .93%; 

ROE = 9.19%; 

ROTE = 15.08%; 

Total capital ratio = 13.48%; 

Dividend payout ratio = 57.78%, indicates that FHB is not likely to increase quarterly dividend rate of $.26 per share; 

Loan to deposit ratio = 58%. That is very low and indicates a very conservative lending strategy and/or a lack of lending opportunities. A normal loan to deposit ratio would be close to 100%.  

Tangible book value per share. = $10.1

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Sold 5 FHB in Fidelity Account at $29.86 and Item # 2.E. Pared FHB in Schwab Account-Sold 5 at $29.86 (11/5/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $31.19 and $30.76; the the Schwab account, the AC per share was reduced to $18.25); Item # 3.H. Pared FHB in Fidelity Account- Sold 12.468 at $29.06 (7/9/21 Post); Item # 1.P. Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5.891 at $30.47  (3/20/21 Post); Item #1.B. Continued Paring FHB in my Fidelity Taxable Account- Sold 5 at $28.61 (3/13/21 Post); Item 1.A. Pared FHB in Schwab Account: Sold 40 at $29.65;  5 at $30.81 and Item #1.B. Pared 10 FHB in Fidelity Account at $29.65 and 10 at $30.02 (2/12/20 Post); Item 1.A. Pared FHB in Schwab Account: Sold 40 at $29.65;  5 at $30.81 and Item #1.B. Pared 10 FHB in Fidelity Account at $29.65 and 10 at $30.02 (2/12/20 Post)

FHB Realized Gains to Date: $502.08

F. Bought Back 10 MAC at $8.89-Schwab Account: 

History this account: 

Quote: Macerich Co. - A Mall REIT

MAC SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (debt is heavy and discussed at pages 18-20.

Investor Information | Macerich

Macerich company News & Press Releases | PR Newswire

Last Round-trip: Item # 2.I. Sold 10 MAC at $15.67 (9/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.47)-Item # 2. Bought 10 MAC at $11.83 (4/24/21 Post)  

Investment Categories: Lottery Ticket Basket, Contrarian Value, and Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share, slashed from $.71 to $.01 effective for the 2020 second quarter and  then raised to the current penny rate. 

Macerich Declares Quarterly Dividend 

Tax Treatment of 2021 Dividend Payments: 2021 Dividends Of the $.60 per share total, $.416 was classified as ROC, which is not taxable but reduces the tax cost basis per share by the amount so classified.  

If I owned my 10 shares of MAC as of my DOD, with the FMV at $15 as an example, and the tax cost basis as reduced by ROC was at $5, the stepped up tax cost basis to my heirs would be $15 assuming no law change. That would mean that I avoided paying taxes on that part of the dividends classified as ROC and my heirs avoided paying taxes on the artificial gain created by the ROC adjustments when they sell my 10 shares.  

Yield at $8.89 = 6.75%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/19/22  

Last Financial Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filing 

Adjusted FFO per share = $.50, up from $.45 in the 2021 first quarter. 

FFO per share = $.47, up from $.43

Occupancy at 91.3%, up 2.8%

Releasing spread at 1.3%. 

2022 Guidance: Adjusted FFO per share at $1.9 to $2.04

At the $1.97 midpoint in that guidance, the P/FFO at $8.89 is 4.51.  

The adjustment to FFO, described as the Chandler Freehold interest, is explained in this excerpt from the last filed 10-Q:  

MAC generally owns what is described as Class A malls, having sold over the past 10 years lower quality properties, which has allowed it to survive through the pandemic period and the gradual transition to online retailing. There is IMO a reasonable possibility that the share price will recover some after its most recent swoon. Macy’s, Abercrombie, Simon Property, and Other Stocks for the Shopping Mall Revival | Barron's (11/14/21). The recent weakness in MAC shares is probably due to recession fears, to increased debt financing costs, and to legitimate concerns about consumer discretionary spending given the substantial rise in prices for necessities. So I still classify the shares as Lottos after the recent price decline rendered the stock as less speculative.  

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (5/9/22): 5 stars with a FMV of $28.5, no moat.  

S & P (5/9/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $14

I do not have access to other reports. I noted that Jeffries and Piper Sandler cut their PTs to $9 on 6/30/22.     

G. Added 5 AMKBY at $11.58; 5 at $11.04: 

Quotes: 

USD: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR

DKK: MAERSK.B (Denmark)

ADR Ratio: 1 ADR = .005 Ordinary

Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

I am just averaging down in 5 or 10 share lots until I hit 100 shares. At some point, I may buy the remaining shares in one trade. 

New Average Cost per share: $13.61 (45 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/5/22 after second add

Last Buy Discussions:  

Item #2.J. Bought 5 AMKBY at $11.87 (6/22/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. Interim Report Q1 2022

Item # 4.B. Bought 5 AMKBY at $15.25; 5 at $14.28; 5 at $12.9 (4/21/22 Post) 

Dividends: Paid Annually at a variable rate that depends on the prior year's profit. The 2022 dividend was at US$1.85 per share, up from US$.21 paid in 2021. 

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.I. Eliminated AMKBY - Sold 25 at $16.98 (1/7/22 Post)

At the current price, the TTM P/E is close to 2. A. P. Moller Maersk PE Ratio The Stock Jocks are expecting a major downturn in earnings.

H. Bought 5 CPF at $21.89: 

Quote: Central Pacific Financial Corp.

CPF SEC Filings

Central Pacific Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates (As of 7/5/22, the 2022 average E.P.S. estimate was $2.36 and at $2.4.6 for 2023. 

2021 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Bought 5 CPF at $23.7; 5 at $23.15 (5/26/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post. 

Average cost per share = $24.08 (20 shares) 

Reduced from $24.81

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share

Yield at $24.08 = 4.32% 

Last Ex Dividend: 5/27/22

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.