Economy:
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M05 Results:
CPI Annual: 3.3%, down from 3.4% through April
Core CPI Annual: 3.4%, down from 3.6% through April
Annual Core CPI less "shelter" was up 1.9%, down from 2.1% through April.
Month-To-Month CPI: Unchanged
Month-To-Month Core CPI: +.02%
Discussed at CPI report: CNBC
Annual owners equivalent rent: 5.7%, down from 5.8% through April
Month-To-Month OER = .4%, unchanged.
Office Buildings’ Losses Are Growing, With More Pain to Come - The New York Times
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: +$11,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: +$6,000 in principal amount
CDs: +$3,000
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks: +$7.42
(consisting of $731.5 of purchases minus $724.08 in proceeds)
Canadian REIT: +C$851.5 (converted to US$622 to determine allocation dollars)
Inflow Common Stocks: +$629.42
Leverage Senior Loan CEF: -$228.43
Equity Preferred Stock: -$304.1
First Mortgage Bond (EMP): +$109.58
2024 Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$30,243.9
Treasury Yield Curve - June 2024:
+++
Trump and His Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Trump’s Latest Campaign Pledge: Revenge-U.S. News & World Reports
Justice Thomas received an estimated $4.2M in gifts. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas got millions in gifts
Trump hits tech fundraiser in San Francisco, some guests pay $300,000 The fundraiser was hosted by David O. Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya who founded Social Capital.
Felon candidate Trump and convicted allies threaten U.S. officials after guilty verdict - YouTube
Donald Trump Wants Five Lawmakers Indicted-Newsweek The congressional representatives were members of the January 6th Committee that published a 864 page report on the republican insurrection. Select January 6th Committee Final Report and Supporting Materials Collection | GovInfo
Trump ally Steve Bannon ordered to report to prison July 1 in contempt of Congress case - CBS News A federal district court judge appointed by Trump issued this order.
Bannon' said "this is about shutting down the MAGA movement, shutting down grassroots conservatives, shutting down President Trump."
Trump blamed the weaponization of the Justice Department by the "CROOKED" Biden administration for the jury verdict finding Bannon guilty of criminal contempt. He was without question guilty IMO. The verdict was upheld by a three judge appellate panel finding that Bannon had no defense for his refusal to testify or to provide documents in response to a congressional subpoena. Steve Bannon Prison News Sparks MAGA Fury - Newsweek; Appeals court upholds Steve Bannon's conviction for defying Jan. 6 probe-POLITICO; Appellate Court Opinion One of the judges on the panel, Justin R. Walker, was appointed by Trump.
Clarence Thomas, in Financial Disclosure, Acknowledges 2019 Trips Paid by Harlan Crow - The New York Times (6/7/2024). Even after amending his disclosure forms, Thomas left out gifts that he received from a GOP megadonor. Clarence Thomas took more trips on GOP megadonor’s private plane than previously known; New documents show unreported trips by Justice Clarence Thomas - The Washington Post (6/13/24).
Jeffrey Toobin: Trump documents judge Cannon 'trying to kill this prosecution' I am convinced now that Judge Cannon will delay a trial until after the election. While others can debate her motives, the delay is inexcusable and is consistent with a judge doing whatever she can to protect Trump from more criminal convictions.
Trump claims Jan. 6 insurrectionists were 'set up' by Capitol police - YouTube
Hunter Biden conviction shatters Trump’s persecution narrative Hunter had almost a zero chance of an acquittal and should have pled guilty IMO. Biden says he will not pardon Hunter or commute his sentence - The Washington Post
Southern Baptists vote to formally oppose IVF - YouTube; Southern Baptists formally oppose IVF They are part of what I call the American Taliban wing of Trump's party. Senate Republicans block Democratic bill to protect IVF nationwide
Washington man allegedly kills teen because he mistook an airsoft gun for a real firearm - ABC News The 17 year old was returning an airsoft gun and was shot in the back by a gun wielding private citizen.
Let’s Talk About Trump’s Gibberish - The Atlantic
Supreme Court strikes down Trump-era ban on bump stocks Justice Thomas wrote the opinion. The decision was 6-3 with all Republican Justices voting to eliminate the ban. A bump stock, capable of firing more than 1000 rounds in 11 minutes, was used at the 2017 Las Vegas music festival mass shooting that killed 60 and wounded 413. The subsequent panic brought the number of injuries to about 847.
Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports Idiotic in the extreme and the most ridiculous policy proposal ever made by a candidate for President. Almost 50% of U.S. taxpayers pay no federal income tax. The tariff hike would increase the prices paid for imported goods, and provide an umbrella for price increases by domestic companies. The consequence would be a huge tax like increase, in effect, on lower and middle income households. And hiking tariffs to replace income taxes would result in lower tariff revenues, as imported goods become far too expensive and are no longer imported in any quantity, leaving the U.S. government will almost no revenue, hyperinflation, debt defaults, a plunging USD, and a depression that can not be alleviated by government spending.
++
Psychopath Putin and His Imperialistic Nation:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Before Putin is willing to discuss a peace agreement, Ukraine must first withdraw Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Kerson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia and abandon any plan to join NATO. Russia's Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine The war will continue. Putin is hoping that Trump wins the election. Trump has made it clear that he will both terminate aid to Ukraine and pressure Ukraine to relinquish territory.
S-300 Launchers and Radars Confirmed by ATACMS Destroyed Near Yevpatoria, Crimea - YouTube Destroying air defenses in Crimea would be a prelude to a full scale attack by the Ukrainian army that would include the use of the F-16s. Another prelude would be to cut off Russian supply routes to Crimea by sea and over the Kerch bridge. There is no reason for Ukraine to destroy the bridge/rail link until it is ready to retake Crimea. Losing Crimea would be hard for Putin to explain away. The sea supply route has been effectively cut off already by marine drones that have sunk or damaged several ships in Russia's Black Sea navy.
Putin's air defences destroyed in Crimea | Matthew Savill - YouTube
Buk SAM System Destroyed by Switchblade & Pantsir Destroyed by HIMARS - YouTube
One Drone Did Impact at Mozdok Airbase in North Ossetia! - YouTube
Ukraine Hits Top Su-57 Fighter Jet Inside Russia - Newsweek; Ukraine says deep drone strike destroys rare Russian Su-57 stealth fighter | CNN (372 miles behind the front lines at the Akhtubinsk air base in the Astrakhan Oblast) The Su-57 has launched Kh-59 and Kh-69 cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. Sukhoi Su-57-Wikipedia The Su-57 was not even protected by a hanger, notwithstanding its cost of around $35M.
Why Russia Is Happy at War - The Atlantic
Russian Train in Kursk Attacked by FPV Drones - YouTube
New US sanctions against Russia force end of dollar and euro trading on Moscow Exchange
G7 leaders agree to loan Ukraine money backed by profits from frozen Russian investments; G7 summit opens with deal to use Russian assets for Ukraine - ABC News
++++
1. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added 5o REI.UN:CA at C$17.01-(C$1 Interactive Brokers Commission):
Quote: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)
Total Cost: C$851.5
As of 3/31/24, the portfolio consisted of "188 properties with an aggregate net leasable area of approximately 32.6 million square feet (at RioCan's interest) including office, residential rental and nine development properties."
 |
| Footnotes omitted from snapshot |
Q1 2024 - Supplemental Disclosure
I classify RioCan as primarily a retail REIT with some apartment and office properties. As of 3/31/24, the REIT owned 14 apartment buildings with 3,072 units.
Occupancy and Rent Information:
Supplemental at page 4.
U.S. Pink Sheets: RIOCF I have bought and sold the USD priced shares but will no longer trade them. Item #3.C. Sold 20 RIOCF at US$17.7 (12/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $139.02)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: RioCan REIT - Real Estate Investment Trust Company
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Restarted REI.UN:CA - Bought 100 at C$18.5 (12/23/23 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 7 Sold 100 REI.UN:CA at C$27.04 (6/19/14 Post) Riocan was trading near C$25 in March 2020. In response to the pandemic, the price had slid to about C$15.5 in June 2020. The monthly dividend was cut from C$.12 to C$.08 effective for the January 2021 payment.
New Average cost per share: C$18.01 (150 units)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.0925 per unit (C$1.11 annually)
Canada will withhold a 15% tax. Claiming Foreign Taxes: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces May 2024 Distribution
Yield at C$18.01 AC per unit: 6.16%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/31/24 (owned 100 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
Operational Highlights:
As with other Canadian REITs, real estate is not depreciated, so there is no non-cash depreciation expense that would be deducted from net income to arrive at FFO, which is the case for U.S. REITs. Instead, net income is adjusted up or down by fair value estimates of the owned real estate. This adjustment is a mushy number compared to using the depreciation method which is a precise number.
2024 Guidance: FFO per unit at $1.79 to $1.82. The P/FFO is currently less than 10.
B. Added to PINE - Bought 10 at $15.25:
Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE)
Cost: $152.5
Managed by a wholly owned subsidiary of CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) which I also own.
PINE is a retail REIT that owned 138 properties as of 3/31/24. The REIT also makes secured construction loans for the development of retail properties and also has an interest in a first mortgage loan secured by retail properties as discussed below.
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (properties are listed starting at page 7)
Property Portfolio — Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.
Website: Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to PINE - Bought 10 at $15.18 (4/5/2024 Post)(discussed 2023 4th quarter report, SEC Filed Earnings Release); Item # 1.A. Added to PINE - Bought 5 at $14.9; 5 at $14.4 (10/28/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $15.98 (56 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/7/2024 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.275 per share ($1.1 annually), last raised from $.27 effective for the 2022 third quarter.
PINE Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC: 6.88%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/24 (owned all as of)
Recent News: Alpine Income Property Trust Announces Sale of a Senior Portion of First Mortgage Loan Investment Proceeds of $13.6M were used to pay down borrowings under PINE's credit facility. This sale reduced PINE's interest in the FM loan investment to $9.8M at an interest rate of approximately 9.94%. The loan is secured by a portfolio of retail properties.
Prior to this sale, this mortgage note receivable was in the principal amount of $23.37M as of 3/31/24:
Page 15 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
FFO per share: $.41
AFFO per share: $.42
Net Income to AFFO Reconciliation:
Number of Properties: 138
Weighted Average Remaining Lease Term: 6.9 years
Occupancy: 99%
"Repurchased 45,768 shares of the Company’s common stock at a weighted average gross price of $16.90 per share, for a total cost of $0.8 million."
Debt: Spreads to SOFR
While the SOFR rates were fixed with interest rate swaps, as referenced in the footnotes, the company still pays the spreads to SOFR. The SOFR rate on the credit facility has been fixed at 3.21% which is higher than the 2 term loans maturing in May 2026 and January 2027 that are fixed at 2.05% and 1.18% respectively. Paying down the credit facility borrowings would lower interest rate costs the most.
2024 AFFO per share guidance: $1.53 to $1.58
 |
| In Millions, except for per share data |
 |
| In Millions |
A. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in ENB - Sold 20 at $36.2 - Vanguard Account:
Quotes:
USDs: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
CADs: Enbridge Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Proceeds: $724.08
Website: Home - Enbridge Inc.
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (At pages 14- 33, the various energy infrastructure businesses are discussed, with maps of the pipelines and other facilities)
Profit Snapshot: $141.47
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to ENB in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $29.51; 5 at $28.95; 5 at $27.4 (10/31/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 5 ENB at $30.65-Fidelity Taxable (8/15/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 1 ENB at $27.23; 1 at $26.21; 1 at $25.49; 1 at $24.29; 1 at $23.68 (4/18/20 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.915 (C$3.66 annually), last raised from C$.8875 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Dividends and Common Shares - Enbridge Inc.
Dividend History in CADs: Excellent so far.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/24 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
GAAP Net Income of $1.4B or $.67 per share.
Adjusted net income of $2B or $.92, up from $.85
Distributable cash flow of $3.463B, up 9%
DCF per share: $1.63
"Closed the acquisition of The East Ohio Gas Company ("EOG"), now doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio, from Dominion Energy Inc. on March 6, 2024 for a purchase price of US$6.6 billion (including US$2.3 billion of assumed debt)"
"Excluding the contributions from, and the impact of financing, the U.S. Gas Utilities Acquisitions, DCF of $3.4 billion an increase of 8%, compared with $3.2 billion in 2023."
"Closed the previously announced sale of Enbridge's interests in Alliance Pipeline ("Alliance") and Aux Sable to Pembina Pipeline Corporation on April 1, 2024 for proceeds of $3.1 billion."
Operating Revenues: $11.038B
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Account - SOLD 3 at $40.63 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.15); Item # 3.B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $43.01 (8/23/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $19.2); Item # 7.A. Pared ENB in Schwab Account - Sold 2 at $46.77 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.27); Item # 3.F. Pared ENB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $42.4 (3/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.71); Item 1.F. Pared ENB - Sold 3 at $42.18 (2/3/2022 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.89); Item # 1.E. Sold Remaining Shares Purchased with Dividends in Fidelity Account at 40.14 (10/15/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.93); Item # 1.B. Sold 8 ENB at $42.36 (2/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.36); Item # 3.B. Sold 17 ENB at $40.21 (1/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.18); Item # 1.B. Sold 15 ENB at $37.61-Used Commission Free Trade (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.29); Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.48); Sold 10 ENB at $40.14 (1/4/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.21)(no item #)
ENB Realized Gains to Date: $540.32
Remaining ENB Taxable Account Positions:
Fidelity: 30 shares at a $29.55 average cost per share
Schwab: 10 shares with a $28.52 average cost per share
I own ENB in two Roth IRA accounts. Based on the current U.S.-Canada tax treaty, no Canadian withholding tax is taken when the dividend is paid into a U.S. citizens retirement account.
Goal: Any profit on the shares plus the dividend
Current Position in ENBPRP:CA (reset equity preferred stock):
I own 500 shares of ENBPRP:CA with an average cost per share at C$16.05:
 |
| Price as of 6/7/24/Unrealized gain at +C$1,060 |
Earlier this year, this reset equity preferred stock reset its coupon for five years at 5.988% paid on a C$25 par value. The coupon resets in 2029 at a 2.57% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield on the reset date. The 5 year Canadian government bond had a 3.418% yield on the last reset date.
Current yield at my AC per share = 9.3271% (.05988% coupon x $25 par value = C$1.497 dividend per share ÷ C$16.05 cost per share = 9.3271%). At the closing price on 6/7/24 of C$18.71, the yield is 8%. Dividends are cumulative.
Annual Dividends for 500 shares = C$748.5
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.A. Added to ENBPRP:CA - Bought 100 at C$16.2 (11/15/22 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to ENB.PRP:CA Bought 50 at C$11.98 and 50 at C$11.76 (6/13/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to ENB.PRP:CA-Bought 50 at C$16.47 (2/16/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Bought 50 ENB.PRP:CA at C$15.68 (11/27/19 Post)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 out of 400 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.20 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$368); Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$963, contains a snapshot of a prior realized gain of US$1,458.25 converted by Fidelity into USDs from CADs.)
Realized Gains ENB Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
2016 ENBPRF (100) = C$196
2017 ENBPRP (300) = C$1,814
2017 ENBPRP (200) = C$963
2021 EBGEF (150-2 trades) = US$351.52 (traded on the U.S. Grey Market)
2021 ENBPRP (100) = C$368
Totals: +C$3,341; +US$ 351.52
My video: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks - YouTube
Current Position in ENB SU bonds: 6
The last 4 mature on 3/15/25.
Quote: Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund Overview
Proceeds: $228.43
Leveraged at 38.21% as of 4/30/24
"The Fund primarily invests in senior loans, high yield corporate debt, and collateralized loan obligation (CLO) debt."
Credit Quality:
Given the substantial leverage, the narrowing spread between the cost of borrowings and the yields of securities bought with borrowed money, and the overall low credit quality of the portfolio, I view this fund as high risk.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Sold 5+ Shares Purchased with Dividends (3/22/24 Post) I eliminated all shares purchased with dividends and turned off dividend reinvestment. I will only buy shares now when the purchase reduces my average cost per share.
Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund - SEC Filed semiannual shareholder report for the period ending 1/31/24. List of JQC holdings starts at page 38.
Sponsor's website: JQC - Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Number of Holdings (as of 4/30/24): 421
Profit Snapshot: +$21.93
New Average cost per share: $5.07
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/7/24 after pare |
Data Date of 6/7/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $5.92
Closing Market Price: $5.65
Discount: -4.56%
Average 3 year discount: 10.04%
Sourced: JQC-CEF Connect (Click Pricing Information Tab)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.B. Added to JQC - Bought 10 at $5.08; 10 at $5 (11/11/23 Post); Item # 1.F. Added to JQC - Bought 20 at $5.07 (8/12/23 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to JQC - Bought 10 at $4.94 (6/17/2023 Post)
Similar unleveraged ETFs:
SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF (SRLN) and Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) I have a small ball position in SRLN.
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 6/10/24 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 12/12/24
Interest: $130.56
Investment Rate: 5.377%
B. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at the 6/11/24 Auction:
4. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated CNOBP - Sold 15 at $20.27:
Quote: ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. 5.25% Preferred Series A (CNOBP)
Proceeds: $304.1
Issuer: ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB) - A Bank Holding company.
CNOB SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 ("Diluted earnings per share were $0.41 for the first quarter of 2024 compared with $0.46 for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $0.59 for the first quarter of 2023.") This downtrend in E.P.S. can be described as normal for regional banks. The general problem is that the cost of deposits and borrowings has exerted downward pressure on net interest margins. The problem has been aggravated by owning longer duration and low yielding mortgage backed and other fixed coupon securities.
Profit Snapshot: $53.25
Last Discussed: Item # 5.D. Added 5 CNOBP at $16.25 (10/14/23 Post); Item # 5.B. Bought 10 CNOBP at $16.95 (8/5/23 Post)
Par Value: $25
Fixed Coupon: 5.25% to and excluding 9/1/2026
Floating Rate: From and including 9/1/2026 at the 5 year treasury rate + 4.42% This reset date is too far into the future for me to assign a current value. Most likely the issuer would call the preferred stock rather than paying the reset coupon.
Reset Period: 5 years. Once the coupon resets, it stays in effect for 5 years, but the issuer has the option to call at anytime.
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Qualified, and Non-Cumulative
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/24 (owned as of)
5. CD Purchases - FDIC Insured:
A. Bought 2 First National Bank 5.2% CDs Maturing on 12/22/25:
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Interest paid monthly.
B. Bought 1 Eagle Bancorp 5.35% CD Maturing on 6/25/25:
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Interest paid monthly.
6. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Cubesmart LP 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.723:
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Issuer: Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE), a storage REIT who guarantees the notes:
SEC Filed Investor Presentation - June 2024
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
I have a small ball position in the commons stock (9 shares at a $21.19 average cost per share)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.68%
Current Yield at TC = 4.09%
I now own 8.
Last Bond Offering (11/2021):
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This information can be found at the previous link. The number is increasing slightly each day.
I added an Item #9 to this post that discusses proceeds received from corporate bond maturities today.
ReplyDeleteAlternatives for corporate bond purchases in the 1 to 2 year maturities are pricing in about a 50 basis cut in the federal funds rate when I do not currently anticipate any cut prior to December.
I will be redirecting more corporate bond proceeds into 6 month treasury bill purchases and have started to increase my purchases of dividend paying stocks last Friday using what I call a shotgun scatter approach, buying small amounts of several depressed and out-of-favor dividend paying stocks including averaging down on existing positions and starting new ones.
The proceeds from the 10 Arizona Public Service bonds that matured today and will be credited in my Schwab account late on Monday will be used to buy ten 4 month T Bills next Wednesday.
I just paid my annual insurance premiums for my homeowners, cars and umbrella coverages.
ReplyDeleteCompared to 2023 Increases:
Cars (2): +23.01%
Homeowners: +35.81%
Umbrella: +45.43%
I have never had any claims under my homeowners or umbrella coverages. I built my house in 1982. For my car, I was hit in the bumper about 15 years ago which cost about $400 to repair and was not my fault. So the increases had nothing to do with making claims.
My car insurance is about the same. My homeowner's popped my eyes open, at about 20-25% increase. Same company.
DeleteI don't have any claims for many years. Credit score remains excellent. It's about their pricing.
Right now I'm calm because it's not reality at the moment, but the risk of a Trump win is high... and spells headwinds for democracies. It's surreal that he's still maintaining support, while being a felon.
ReplyDeleteLand: Trump would receive over 75 million votes even if he was convicted of multiple felonies in the documents case including the near slam dunk obstruction of justice charges. Cannon will not allow that case to go to trial before the election.
DeleteTrump is a demagogic psychopath who can only thrive in a nation where either facts do not matter or an increasingly Orwellian society where true is false and false is true.
The main problem is pervasive ignorance and an unwillingness to learn.
Republicans have been successful in creating an alternate reality for their tribe members who will not even bother to seek out accurate information or will dismiss accurate information inconsistent with republican narratives as false or just label facts as Fake News.
The success of Trump would not have been possible in earlier times. I sometimes allude to how Americans turned against Joseph McCarthy upon seeing him in action on live TV during Army McCarthy hearings in 1954, particularly the single exchange that he had with the Army’s counsel Joseph Welch after McCarthy made unfounded character assassinations against an attorney working in Welch’s law firm who was not even involved in the hearings.
Welch made the following statement "Let us not assassinate this lad further, Senator. You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, Sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?" That one exchange was a turning point.
Trump does far worse than that daily, usually multiple time each day, and yet he is viewed favorably by almost 1/2 of the voting public. So that is just where we are now.
Wikipedia on the Army-McCarthy Hearings:
scroll to Joseph Welch Confronts McCarthy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army%E2%80%93McCarthy_hearings
Unfortunately, that's all true.
DeleteI wasn't old enough for the McCarthy Hearings. I've heard the phrasing before but not what it was from. That's scary that it halted the moment then.... but now the same harassment and more, are propelling it.
Making fun of a disabled reporter's disability should have been that moment.
If only NBC had released tapes of the TV show (what was it called?) showing his lack of intelligence... when people were first assessing him, and using the FAKE TV image as his persona.
Land: I was alive during the Army-McCarthy hearings but was too young to comprehend what was happening. Out TV set then had about an 8" screen.
DeletePBS has a YouTube video that contains that scene.
"Have You No Decency?" | McCarthy | American Experience | PBS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svUyYzzv6VI
Thanks for the link - good to be able to see that piece of significant history.
DeleteAnother person who took over and harmed many with extremism that used authoritarian abusive methods. It's amazed me that it can be driven by one person and so quickly. (One person gathers others, but there is a core one or group that drives these movements.)
Democracy on a big scale was a big paradigm shift for humans. Another human paradigm shift that needs to happen is understanding this pattern & being able to withstand it.
(As already said, we seem to be going backwards at that, where prior blocks that worked with McCarthy aren't working with Trump.)
Gilead Sciences Inc.
ReplyDelete$69.14 +$5.99 +9.49%
Last Updated: June 20, 2024 at 1:19 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gild?mod=home_spmovers
"Gilead’s twice-yearly shot to prevent HIV succeeds in late-stage trial"
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/gilead-prep-lenacapavir-succeeds-in-phase-3-trial.html
I like Gilead but their pipeline was drying up so I'd sold and hadn't bought back in.
DeleteIf this enough to make them a financially growing company again?
On a human level, being able to prevent HIV is such a huge accomplishment. Phase 3 usually means it's for real & eventually will get approval.
Land: I recently restarted a position but currently own just 6 shares.
DeleteThe only substantive discussion can be found in Item # 1.A. Restarted GILD in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $64.83
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/05/bstz-cgbd-dpg-gild-o-ul-wba.html
I discussed adding 1 more in a later post at a lower price.
My enthusiasm is well contained. The company is still heavily dependent on HIV drugs. The HCV drug is a cure so peak sales were hit in 2015 at $19B.
Through acquisitions, GILD has expanded into cancer drugs and revenues in that treatment area did increase in the last quarter by 18% to $789M.
How do you prove a negative? GILD gave the HIV drug to about 2000 women and none of them contracted HIV. While that suggests prevention, the existence of a negative in a 2000 person sample does not prove that the drug prevented the infection IMO.
There is another trial with men with data likely to be reported later this year.
One analyst predicts peak annual sales of about $2B, assuming FDA approval, but that is a mushy number. Demand may be higher as a preventive measure when only 2 shots have to be taken annually.
Vaccine tests prove an absence of acquisition. But lead time is months or a few years, not 1/2 a decade.
DeleteThe other 2 drugs have a small # getting HIV in the control groups.
"There were 0 incident cases of HIV infection among 2,134 women in the lenacapavir group (incidence 0.00 per 100 person-years). There were 16 incident cases among 1,068 women in the Truvada group (incidence 1.69 per 100 person-years).....
HIV incidence in the Descovy group was numerically similar (39 incident cases among 2,136 women, incidence 2.02 per 100 person-years) to that in the Truvada group and was not statistically superior to bHIV."
https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2024/6/gileads-twiceyearly-lenacapavir-demonstrated-100-efficacy-and-superiority-to-daily-truvada-for-hiv-prevention
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The current drugs are high priced so the estimates include a multiplier that may not hold. Six times a year gets 11k users.
"The FDA approved the first injectable PrEP in 2021. That drug, Apretude, is given every other month, or six times a year, by a medical professional. About 11,000 people take Apretude, according to its manufacturer, ViiV. "
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It's easier and more effective so it will sell is approved.
So the big question is how much it improves Gilead's finances, relative to the rest of their business.
I finished writing my weekly post so I went ahead and published it:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/06/apa-aqn-cmcsa-dcom-kbwy-khc-nomd.html
My stock investing style is "value contrarian" with a strong emphasis on dividend paying stocks. So I will be frequently buying out-of-favor stocks with below market P/E ratios and higher dividend yields than most common stocks.
Are a lot of those in the reit, utilities and banking sectors?
ReplyDeleteI haven't found the better dividend paying stocks that aren't in those sectors.
Land: I would add to your list packaged foods (e.g. KHC), pharmaceutical, energy infrastructure, E&P, and BDC stocks.
DeleteI am still negative on regional banks, but starting to "feel" that maybe those stocks have been beaten up too much.