BHB, CDUAF, CXP, FBIO, IFRA, MMM, NOMD, QQQ, PFE, PWCDF, RCUS, RIOCF, TECB, THRY, UL

Economy: 

The FED's current economic forecasts, released on 12/15/21, offer a rosy picture going forward, where inflation is tamed in 2022 as interest rates remain abnormally low, and the labor market reaching full employment based on solid real GDP growth. The Fed - December 15, 2021: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version

The FED did raise its prediction for 2021 PCE inflation to 5.3% from September's forecast of 4.2%. The FED's forecast for 2021 PCE inflation was at 1.8% in December 2020. The Fed - December 16, 2020: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version And we were assured by Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that subprime and Alt-A mortgages were not going to be a major problem worth worrying about.  Bernanke Believes Housing Mess Contained (5/17/2007); 30 Bernanke Quotes That Are so Absurd You Won’t Know Whether to Laugh or Cry

I discussed the changes in the FED's monetary policy in a 12/15/21 comment. The change does not alter my opinion that inflation will have to fix itself.  

Ray Dalio warns the Fed's hands are tied and that higher U.S. inflation is sticking around. Democracy, maybe not. - MarketWatch

Pfizer says Covid-19 pill near 90% effective in final analysis

Omicron spreading rapidly in U.S., infections could peak in January, CDC warns - The Washington Post

El-Erian says 'transitory' was the 'worst inflation call in the history' of the Fed

Amcor announces global price increases

Wholesale prices measure rises 9.6% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace on record; Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2021 M11 Results

U.S. retail sales soften in November as consumers face high inflation - MarketWatch

++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

Here's a list of favored dividend stocks with room to pay more for investors worried about 2022 - MarketWatch Of the stocks listed, I currently own BMY, CC, CFG, CVX, DEA, ERPT, FHN, FNB, HIW, IRM, LYB, MET, MRK, NYCB, SBRA, VLY,  and WMB. 

Bristol Myers Raises Its Dividend and Adds $15 Billion to Its Buyback Plan. | Barron's The quarterly dividend was raised 10.2% to $.54 per share. 

The Fed May Have to Kill the Stock Market's Rally to Quash Inflation | Barron's

These are high volatility readings:  

12/16/21 close for the  CBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility (VXN) Index: 25.24 + 1.82 or 7.77%. 

12/16/21 close for the CBOE RUSSELL 2000 VOLATILITY INDEX (RVX): 31.63 +2.26 or 7.69%

The S & P 500 Index is generally less volatile than the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq 100 volatility indexes but the VIX did manage to close above 20 again today (20.57 +6.64%) All major index volatility patterns are in an Unstable mode. 

There have been periods when the Russell 2000 will start rolling over before the S & P 500. For example, IWM peaked on 7/9/2007 while the ETF SPY peaked in October 2007. Using a 1 year YF chart, IWM is currently trading below its 50, 100 and 200 day SMA lines, closing today at $213.18 after peaking on November at $244.26 intraday on 11/8/21. The 12.72% decline qualifies as a correction from the recent top.  

++++

Election denier who circulated Jan. 6 PowerPoint says he met with Meadows at White House republished by MSN.Com from Phil Waldron, backer of Jan. 6 PowerPoint, says he met with Mark Meadows, briefed lawmakers - The Washington Post Retired Colonel Phil Waldron offered Trump several alternatives to overturn the election results. Trump could seize paper ballots and declare a National Security Emergency. Or, Pence would reject the ballots in states that Biden won, based on one or more fact free conspiracy theories, and request the republican dominated legislatures in those states to pick pro-Trump electors. That would have marked the end of America's Democracy, but the nation is still moving swiftly toward that result led by Donald and his party. 

The GOP plotted to overturn the 2020 election before it was even over - The Washington Post

Trump Found Crucial Support in Congress as He Fought to Stay in Power - The New York Times

AP finds fewer than 475 cases of potential voter fraud in six 2020 battleground states | TheHill This is of course irrelevant to republicans who justify restrictions on voting and other brazenly anti-democratic policies on fact free conspiracy theories relating to frequently bizarre claims of election fraud. The purpose to make it more likely that republicans will regain and then maintain power in Washington through voter suppression rather than to prevent material election fraud which they can not prove with anything approaching real evidence, but then facts are irrelevant when Republicans want political power.  

Trump got the former Georgia senator David Perdue to run against the incumbent republican Governor Brian Kemp who is seeking a second term. Trump has backed former Sen. David Perdue for Georgia governor-NPR Kemp was a perfect Trump replica until he certified the 2020 presidential election results, as required by law, after multiple audits confirmed Biden's win. Trump asked Kemp in a recorded call to find enough votes so he would win. Newly Revealed Call Details How Trump Pressed Georgia Investigator To Find Vote Fraud-NPR His failure to follow Trump's orders cost him Donald's endorsement. Perdue says he would not have certified the results, so he won Donald's endorsement. Donald also wants to replace Georgia's incumbent republican Secretary of State with one of his toadie servants. 

Democracy is an historical aberration. There is certainly enough evidence now to conclude that Trump's party represents a clear and present threat to America's Democracy and that danger is rapidly growing. 

As U.S. Covid Deaths Near 800,000, 1 of Every 100 Older Americans Has Perished - The New York Times Yet the republican senator from Wisconsin says the pandemic has been overhyped. Anthony Fauci Rips GOP Sen. Ron Johnson's 'Preposterous' Accusation He's 'Overhyped' COVID  Deaths have probably surpassed 800,000 since the CDC reports weekly and the last report had 797,877, which is probably Fake News, as are facts in general, in Trump's America. CDC COVID Data Tracker 

++++

1. Sold 100 PWCDF at $33.65: 

On 12/6/21, Schwab started charging a $6.95 commission for OTC trades (pink sheet exchange and Grey Market). Prior to that announcement, I had decided to harvest my profit in this 100 share lot and went ahead and sold the shares prior to 12/6/21 just to avoid the commission. 

Quotes 

CAD: Power Corp. of Canada (CA:POW)

USD: PWCDF Stock Price | Power Corp. of Canada (U.S.: OTC)

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1. Restarted PWCDF Priced in USDs-Bought 100 at $15.65; 10 at $14.37 10 at $14.98 and Sold 10 at $16.31 (5/9/2020 Post); Item # 1.I. Added 10 PWCDF at US$14.11; 10 at US$13.85 (5/16/20 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: US$1,852.93

I still own 100 shares that I bought on the Toronto stock exchange using my CADs. Item # 1. Bought 100 POW:CA at C$21.37 (5/30/20 Post) The current dividend yield at C$21.27 is 9.31%, assuming that the recently increased rate, discussed below, remains in effect. 

Last Organization Chart: 

Some of the companies listed in the preceding snapshots are publicly traded including Great-West Lifeco Inc. (Canada: Toronto); IGM Financial Inc. (Canada: Toronto); and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A. (Belgium: Euronext Brussels) 

Fintech Investments | Power Corporation of Canada

Investment Platforms | Power Corporation of Canada

China AMC | Power Corporation of Canada

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert - Companies | Power Corporation of Canada

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.495 (see discussion below) 

November 15, 2021 - Power Corporation Announces an Increase of 10.6% in Quarterly Dividend Payable in February 2022 I am not clear that this increase is a permanent one. The Board declared its regular dividend of C$.4475 per share plus a supplemental dividend of C$.0475. I do not believe that the supplemental dividend is a one time special dividend since it was linked to a C$.052 increase in Great-West Lifeco's dividend. Power owns 66.7% of the shares.   

Next Ex Dividend: 12/30/21 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): November 10, 2021 - Power Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results 

All Amounts in CADs

Other Material News since last substantive discussion: May 3, 2021 - Power Corporation's FinTech Strategy Creating Shareholder Value - Wealthsimple announces $750 million equity offering 

I also sold 5 PWCDF shares in a Roth IRA account, realizing a $96.89 profit: 

Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Sold 10 PWCDF at $17.2; 10 at $18.13; 10 at $19.31(7/11/20 Post)(profit snapshot $82.19); Item # 4 Sold 100 PWCDF at $22.03 (10/5/19 Post)(profit snapshot $110.05); Item # 1. Sold 10 PWCDF at $16/31 (5/9/20 Post),(profit snapshot = $6.6);  Item # 4.A. Sold 100 PWCDF at $23.56 (7/22/17)(profit snapshot= $141.95); Item # 1 under "Portfolio Management": Sold 400 POW:CA at C$31.05-Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot after conversion from CADs to USDs = $360.45); Item # 2 Sold 100 PWCDF at $28.07 (11/22/14 Post)(profit snapshot =  $210.03);  Item # 5 Sold 100 PWCDF at $28.83 (8/2/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.71). 

PWCDF Realized Gains to date: +$2,999.8, includes 5 shares sold in Roth IRA noted above (US$1,049.98 in prior trades) There are a few small realized gains in Roth IRA accounts that are not included in the total. To date, I have not sold any shares for a loss. I have a favorable view of this company as an equity income play. I am likely to hold the 100 shares bought on the Toronto exchange just for the dividend yield at my constant cost number. 

Power Corporation acquired the shares of Power Financial that it did no own in 2020. February 13, 2020 - Power Corporation and Power Financial Announce Completion of Reorganization and the Determination of the Final Offer Price for the Pre-Emptive Right I had several profitable trades in Power Financial before its acquisition. Item # 1A. Sold 50 POFNF at US$27.04 (1/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = US$299.2);  Item # 1.B. Sold 50 PWF:CA at C$35.14 (1/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot C$480); Item # 2 Bought 50 POFNF at US$20.96  (8/14/19 Post); Item # 5.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$25.5 (1/23/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 50 PWF:CA at C$27.73 (12/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$161)-Item # 2.A. Sold 50 of 100 PWF:CA at C$30.99 (3/31/19 Post)

2. Acquisition of Columbia Property Trust (CXP): 

The acquisition of Columbia Property Trust (CXP), an office REIT, was completed on 12/9/21. 

The total cash consideration was $19.3, consisting of a $2.17 per share special dividend and $17.13 for each CXP share. Columbia Property Trust Announces Anticipated Closing Date of Pending Merger and Declares Special Dividend of $2.17 per share

I owned 49 CXP shares at the closing.  

Profit Snapshot:  $304.86  (of which $276.76 due to the acquisition payment for 49 shares)

The special cash dividend amounted to $106.33. 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy  

3. Small Ball: 

A. Bought 5 THRY at $35.95: 

Quote: Thryv Holdings Inc. 

Thryv "provides small-to-medium sized businesses (“SMBs”) with print and digital marketing services and Software as a Service (“SaaS”) business management tools. The Company owns and operates Print Yellow Pages (“PYP”) and Internet Yellow Pages (“IYP”) and provides a comprehensive offering of digital marketing services such as search engine marketing (“SEM”), and other digital media services, including online display advertising, and search engine optimization (“SEO”) tools. In addition, through the Thryv® platform, the Company is a provider of SaaS business management tools designed for SMBs."

Thryv serves "more than 400,000 SMB clients globally through three business segments: Marketing Services, SaaS, and Thryv International." Page 28, 10-Q 

Website: Thryv: Small Business Software & End to End Management Platform; Thryv, Inc. - Investor Relations

THRY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 12/15/21, consensus E.P.S. for 2021 was at $2.79; at $2.15 for 2022 and at $2.09 in 2023)

SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

2020 Annual Report

Thryv Holdings Inc Profile | Reuters

Thryv Holdings Inc Key Metrics | Reuters

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy  

Dividends: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Diluted E.P.S. = $.95

Consensus at $.85 per Fidelity

9 Month Diluted E.P.S. = $2.67

9 month revenue = $868.943M, up from $862.507

Revenue = $297M, up 24% Y-O-Y

Long Term Debt = $542.405M

Cash = $10.374M

Adjusted Gross Margin  = 70%, page 34, 10-Q 

Operating margin (TTM): 20.69% Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) Valuation Measures & Financial Statistics

Increased U.S. SaaS 2021 revenue guidance to $169M-$171M from $157M-$160M.

Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

SEC Filed 2021 Third Quarter Investor Supplement 

Other Recent News: Thryv to be Added to the S&P SmallCap 600® Index (11/18/21)

Leading Small Business Software Provider Thryv Holdings, Inc. Announces Closing of the Acquisition of Australia’s Sensis from Platinum Equity and Telstra (3/1/21). Paid about $200M in cash. The company has grown through acquisitions.  

There was a 1 for 1.8 reverse stock split in August 2020. The company was formerly known as Dex Media Holdings and changed its name to Thryv Holdings in July 2019. The company emerged from bankruptcy in 2016. Why IPOs Are Broken | Barron's The first acquisition after Chapter 11 involved a printer of Yellow Pages. The Yellow Pages, Which Apparently Still Exists, Has Been Acquired by Dex Media - TheStreet (noting DEX and its predecessors had weathered 5 bankruptcies) The growth now is through its SaaS business that experienced a 41% increase in U.S. revenues during the third quarter. The key to this stock IMO is its future growth in its software business with the Yellow page businesses remaining at least stable. 

Short Interest = 1.39M shares (4.78% of the float) as of 11/30/21 

Recognia Technical per Fidelity: Bullish upside breakout pattern as of 11/15/21, which indicates price may rise to a range of $44.5-$44.6; support at $29.02 with resistance at $37.51. 

Schwab Equity Rating Report as of 12/10/21: Notes price to free cash flow of 8.4 for the last 4 quarters compared to the S & P 500 at 29.5. 

Link to Nashville's Online Yellow Pages-owned by THRY: The Real Yellow Pages® - Nashville, TN Directory - YP.com I believe this business will make a successful transition to online which will have higher margins due to lower operating costs. 

I do not have have access to any broker reports. 

B. Sold 20 CDUAF at US$27.92:

These shares were owned in my Schwab account and are now subject to a $6.99 commission. I do not want to play small ball and pay a commission, so I sold this 20 shares before the new commission rate went into effect.  

History this Account: 

Quotes: 

USD: Canadian Utilities Limited (CDUAF)

CAD: Canadian Utilities Limited (CU-TO)

Website: Canadian Utilities | Utilities | Energy

CU.TO - Canadian Utilities Limited Profile | Reuters

2020 Annual Report.pdf

Profit Snapshot: US$13.32

                                           

Item # 1.D.  Added 10 CDUAF at $27.16 (10/29/21 Post); Item # 2.E. Bought 10 CDUAF at $27.36  (5/8/21)

I still own 100 shares bought on the Toronto exchange with my CADs. Item # 1. Bought 100 CU:CA at C$34.25(5/8/21) The commission was C$1 at Interactive Brokers.  

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.4398 (C$1.76 annally)

Canadian Utilities | Dividends & Stock Splits

Last Ex Dividend: 11/3/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Canadian Utilities Reports Higher Third Quarter 2021 Adjusted Earnings

Adjusted Earnings of C$88M or C$.33 per share, up from C$.28 in the 2020 third quarter

C.  Sold 20 RIOCF at US$17.7:

These shares were owned in my Schwab account and were sold for the same reason as CDUAF discussed above.  

Quotes:  

USD: RIOCF

CAD: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: RioCan REIT - Real Estate Investment Trust Company

Properties as of 9/30/21: 

Profit: US$139.02

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Bought 10 RIOCF at $10.94 (8/1/20 Post) 

If I buy shares again, which at a minimum would require a substantial price decline from current levels, the purchase will be on the Toronto exchange using my CADs.  My last Riocan trade in Toronto was to sell 100 shares at C$27.04. Item # 7 (7/19/14 Post)(profit in CADs = C$101)-Item # 6 Bought 100 RioCan REIT at C$25.65 (10/31/13 Post). 

Dividend: Monthly at C$.08 per unit (slashed from C$.12 effective for the January 2020 payment)

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): RioCan's Third Quarter Results Driven by Robust Portfolio Fundamentals

D. Eliminated QQQ in Vanguard Account-Sold 1 at $391.37: 

Quote: Invesco QQQ Trust Series I Overview 

Closing Price 12/16: $386.84, down $10.21 or -2.57% as higher multiple stocks went down more than value stocks. 

Invesco | Product Detail | Invesco QQQ

Invesco | Holdings | Invesco QQQ

Expense Ratio = .2% 

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Quote-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)

Profit Snapshot: $178.12

Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Bought 1 QQQ at $213.25; 1 at $213.58(6/13/20 Post) 

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate. 

Last 4 Dividends (through 2021 3rd Q):  $1.77 per share rounded up

Yield at $391.37 = .45%

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Portfolio-Morningstar (has P/E ratios for top 25 holdings)

E. Pared BHB in Fidelity Account-Sold 2 at $31.5:

Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)

BHB SEC Filings

Bar Harbor Bankshares Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2. Restarted BHB in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $26.6; 5 at $25.55 (9/17/21 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to BHB-Bought 2 at $22.75; 5 at $21.5 (2/20/21 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $18.43 (11/9 sale only)

Average cost per share after pare this account: $19.37 (45 shares): 

Snapshot Intraday 11/9/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share, last raised from $.22 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment. 

I have turned off dividend reinvestment.

Yield at AC = 4.96% rounded up

Last Ex Dividend: 11/16/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Bar Harbor Bankshares  (BHB) Reports Third Quarter Results 

E.P.S. = $.73, up from $.56 in the 2020 third quarter; 

consensus at $.66; 

net income  = $11M; 

Net Interest Margin = 3.02%, up from 2.9% in the 2020 3rd quarter; 

core NIM, excludings PPP loans, at 2.75%; 

efficiency ratio = 59.18%; 

charge off ratio = .02%; 

NPL  Ratio = .48%; 

NPA Ratio = .33%; 

Coverage ratio = 184%;  

ROA = 1.16%; 

ROE = 10.38%; 

ROTE = 15.08%; 

tangible book value per share. = $19.19 

BHB Realized Gains to Date: $4,406.52

Most of those gains were realized in 2016 and 2018. 

Some Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Pared BHB-Sold 10 at $28.5 and 5 at $30.5-highest cost lots in Fidelity Taxable Account (3/20/21 Post): Item # 3.A. Pared BHB-Sold 40 at $24.48-highest cost lots in Fidelity taxable account (12/5/20 Post); Item # 3.B. Eliminated BHB-Sold 54+ Shares at $26.34 (5/18/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 BHB at $30.69-Used Commission Free Trade (7/15/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 BHB at $30.02 (5/21/18 Post); Item #3.A. Sold 100 BHB at $29.55 (4/26/18 Post);Item # 1. A. Sold 30 BHB at $29.42 (3/25/18 Post); Sold 100 BHB Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/6/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

F. Bought 1 MMM at $179.95: 

Quote: 3M Co.

3M - Investor Relations

2020 Annual Report

MMM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

MMM SEC Filings

Investment Category: Bond Substitute with dividend growth

Last Round-Trip: Item # 4.G. Eliminated MMM-Sold 1.101 at $202.56 (7/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.46)- Item # 1.F. Started MMM-Multiple Small Dollar Purchases  (1/23/21 Post)(discussed major negative in this post involving environmental litigation and remediation costs)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.48 per share ($5.92 annually), last raised from $1.47 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. This last raise was the 63rd consecutive year of dividend increases. 

3M - Stock Information - Dividends

Yield at $179.95 = 3.29%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/19/21

Recent News: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Diluted E.P.S. = $2.45, unchanged from the 2020 third quarter

Consensus at  $2.20 per Fidelity. 

Revenues: $8.942B, up from $8.35B 

Updated 2021 Guidance: Lowered

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (10/27/21): 3 stars with a wide moat, FV estimate of  $187, revised down from $194 in this report, due to what the analyst considers a "plethora" of near term headwinds which include input cost inflation. 

Credit Suisse (12/15/21): Neutral with a 12 month PT of $198, lowered from $201 in this report, due to the analyst's reaction to MMM merging its food safety business with Neogen under a reverse Morris Trust structure which I discuss above. 

Argus (10/28/21): Buy with a $225 PT

S & P (11/3/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $196. 

A 5 year high was hit at $259.77 in 2017. I view the downtrend to be primarily related to environmental litigation and remediation costs. I will consider buying fractional shares in response to price declines; probably $50 per purchase. 

G. Eliminated IFRA in Schwab Account-Sold 5 at $37.85: 

Quote: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF Overview

This is not really an infrastructure ETF IMO.

I decided to go only with PAVE as my infrastructure fund which is somewhat more tilted to what I view as infrastructure stocks. U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE)

Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF

Expense Ratio = .3%

Holdings: 149 as of 12/14/21

Standard Deviation 3 Years: 21.62% as of 11/30/21

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Bought 5 IFRA at $$34.55 ( Post) 

Profit Snapshot: +$16.5

Compare Top 10 Holdings: 

PAVE: No utilities

IFRA: 4 Utilities

Of the top 30 holdings, 17 are utilities, and I  own 4 of those stocks. 

Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate

Last 4 Dividends: $.62 per share, rounded down 

Yield at $37.85: 1.65%

H. Bought 5 NOMD at $25.14; 5 at $24.43; 5 at $23.95-Schwab Account: 

Last Discussed Purchases in Fidelity Account: Item # Added to NOMD-Bought 2 at $25.4, 3 at $24.5, 2 at $23.7; 3 at $23.4 (3/13/21 Post); Item # 1.A. Started NOMD-Bought 5 at $25.85 (2/20/21 Post)

After NOMD reported a better than expected and solid third quarter earnings report, the Goldman Sachs analyst downgraded the stock to neutral and slashed the PT to $29 from $36. I do not have access to that report, but it is summarized here: UPDATE: Goldman Sachs Downgrades Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) to Neutral I disagree and view the stock as undervalued at those purchase prices.  

Nomad will benefit from more at home dining. 

Earnings are reported in Euros. 

History this Account: 

Average cost per share this account  = US$24.51 (15 shares)

Closing Price 12/16: $25.17, up $.66 or +2.69%, as packaged food stocks continued to rally on pandemic concerns.   

Quote: Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)

NOMD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Website: Home | Nomad Foods

NOMD SEC Filings

Dividends: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (9/30/21): Nomad Foods Reports Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results - Nomad Foods

Adjusted E.P.S. = €.35

Consensus at €.30 per Fidelity

Reported E.P.S. unchanged Y-O-Y at €.29

Reiterated 2021 adjusted E.P.S. guidance of €1.5 to €1.55. 

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Using the current EUR/USD exchange, rounded to 1.13, and using a €1.525 adjusted E.P.S. number for 2021, the USD equivalent would be US$1.72 (rounded down). Using the $24.51 AC per share number, the P/E would be about 14.01. 

Adjustments: 

Sourced from page 15, NF_Investor Presentation.pdf

Items considered "exceptional" by management are listed in an Exhibit to the SEC filing: 

Page 43 

Maximum Position: 100 shares, all accounts combined, due to a lack of dividends rather than to valuation which I view as favorable

I. Sold 2 RCUS:  

Quote: Arcus Biosciences Inc. 

Arcus Biosciences Home | Pursuit of Curing Cancer

Clinical Pipeline | Biopharmaceutical | Cancer Therapies

RCUS Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

RCUS SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

SEC Filed Loss Report for the Q/E 9/30/21 (ended the quarter with $743M in cash; loss of $78.021M or $1.11 per share)

Profit Snapshots: $15.2

1 Share = $8.65 

1 Share = $6.55

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket 

This leaves me with 3 shares. My AC is at $29.51. 

I have discussed this Lotto only in comments. See, 9/1/21 comment; 9/18/21 Comment (referencing upside price movement only). 

This is IMO the only currently relevant recent news: Gilead Exercises Options to Three Arcus Biosciences Clinical-stage Programs and Adds Research Collaboration (option payment to Arcus of $750M and other terms discussed in the press release)

J. Sold Remaining PFE Fractional Share Bought with Dividends at $51.71 and $60.93-Fidelity Account only: 

.268 share

.074 share

Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Closing Price 12/16: $61.25, up $2.45 or +$4.17%, based on increased concerns about the pandemic and Pfizer's money making machine in providing vaccines and soon its Covid pill.  

PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (currently, the non-GAAP consensus E.P.S. estimate for 2021 is at $4.19; at $5.82 in 2022 and at $4.89 in 2023).  IMO, Pfizer's earnings will be difficult to predict given its Covid vaccine revenues going forward and the likely blockbuster potential of its Covid pill which was invented in-house. 

PFE SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

2020 Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: +$3.72 (11/19 and 12/16 sales only)

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Restarted PFE- Bought 1 at $31.08, 1 at $30.22; 1 at $29.45;  2 at $28.4 (4/25/20 Post)

Average cost per share this account after pare: $34.6 (10 shares)

Intraday 12/16/21

I own shares in 3 taxable accounts.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share, last raised from $.39 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. 

Pfizer Inc. - Stock Information - Dividend & Split History

Yield at $34.6 = 4.62%

Next Ex Dividend: 1/27/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21):  SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.42

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.34

Consensus at $1.09 per Fidelity

For 2021, raised midpoint of guidance for adjusted E.P.S. to $2.60 to $2.65 excluding the Covid vaccine revenues and profits. This number is important when valuing the company longer term IMO. 

With the vaccine, Pfizer expects 2021 adjusted E.P.S. to be in a range between $4.13-$4.18 with revenues between $81B to $82B, with the Covid vaccine generating $36B.

Product Revenues: 

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.M. Sold 6 at $36.69 (11/28/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.6); Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining 33 PFE shares  at $33.44 (8/13/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $90.67); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.03 (7/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.42); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 PFE at $34.65 (3/13/17 Post)(profit snapshot =$235.86); Item # 1 Sold: 100 PFE at $31.68 (5/17/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $282.12) Buy discussions are linked in those posts.

K. Added to UL-Bought 3 at $51.5-Schwab Taxable: 

Quote: Unilever PLC ADR

ADR Ratio 1 to 1 

All brands | Unilever global company website

Most Recent Material News: Unilever to sell its Tea business, ekaterra, to CVC Capital Partners Fund VIII  The price is €4.5B with no debt assumed by the buyer. The main brands in the U.S. are Lipton and  TAZO which has specialized brands. 

AC Per Share this Account: $54.76 (15+ shares)

Dividends: The exchange rate will cause fluctuations in the amount. 

Yield at AC this account = 3.71% (using the USD$2.03 per share paid in 2021, actual will vary depending on dividend increases and exchange rates)

Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/4/21

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added to UL in Schwab Account-Bought 1 at $55.75; 1 at $54.91, 1 at 54.51; 2 at $54.29, 2 at $52.25 (3/6/21 Post) 

Last Report: Unilever reports profits on a semiannual basis and provides only sales updates for the quarters ending in March and September. 

For the 3 months ending last September, revenue growth was up 2.5% with the consensus forecast at 2.7%. Growth came from price hikes as volume decreased 1.5%. Overall that is a negative report. 

Q3 2021 Results Announcement

Investors | Unilever global company website | Unilever

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (11/19/21): 4 stars with a FV of $59

Argus (6/18/21): Buy and raised PT to $68 in this report from $66. 

S & P (10/22/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $58.

UN (no longer traded) and UL Trading Profits to date = $3,544.27

L. Added to DNNGY-Bought 1 at $42.6-Fidelity Account:

Quotes:  

USD: Oersted A/S ADR

DKK: Oersted A/S  (Denmark: OMX)

DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars

Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted

Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted

News Releases-Ørsted

For Schwab customers, trades in this OTC stock would now be subject to a commission. Currently, Fidelity does not charge a commission for OTC traded stocks. 

Recent News since last Discussion:  Ørsted takes final investment decision on two German offshore wind farms (12/1/21); Ørsted acquires Lincoln Land Wind in Illinois in continued expansion of its operational footprint in the US (11/22/21). 

I have nothing to add to this recent discussion. Item # 1.J. Bought 5 DNNGY at US$45.16 (11/5/21 Post). I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Interim financial report 9M 2021.pdf

Recent Round-Trip: Item # 2.A. Bought 5 DNNGY at $46.2 and Sold 5 at $47.36 (6/25/21 Post) I discussed some of my concerns in that post. 

M. Eliminated TECB in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $42.22: 

Quote: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: iShares U.S. Tech Breakthrough Multisector ETF

TECB Portfolio-Morningstar (note the P/E ratios for the to 25 holdings)

In my last post, I discussed eliminating this stock ETF in two other taxable accounts. Iem # 2.E. Eliminated TECB in Vanguard Account-Sold 5 at $42.8 and Item # 2.F. Eliminated TECB in Schwab Account-Sold 10 at $43.57  (12/10/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $179.84).  

I did not realize when I published the last post that I still owned 5 shares in my Fidelity account, and I sold that lot last Monday morning as part of my ongoing process to eliminate low yielding stock ETFs that own elevated P/E stocks. 

Profit Snapshot: $62.3  (12/13/21 sale only)

2021 TECB Realized Gains: $251.72 (21 shares) 

N. Added 5 FBIO at $2.48: 

Quote: Fortress Biotech Inc.

Programs-Fortress Biotech, Inc.

Marketed Products-Fortress Biotech

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

2020 Annual Report

I have nothing to add to my recent discussions. Item # 2.F. Bought 30 FBIO at $3.04 (11/26/21 Post); Item # 2.N. Added to Lotto FBIO-Bought 5 at $2.6 (12/3/21 Post) 

Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket

Current position: 40 shares (average cost per share = $2.91)

Purchase Restriction: 100 shares, averaging down only in 5 share lots.   

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.