Economy:
The BLS reported that the economy added 272,000 jobs in May. Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M05 Results Average hourly earnings increased by 14 cents, or .4% to $34.91, higher than the consensus estimate. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 4.1%.
In Thousands |
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Discussed at Jobs report May 2024: U.S. job gains totaled 272,000 in May The consensus estimate was for +190,000.
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group As of 8:30 A.M. C.S.T, the probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by at least 25 basis points on or before the September meeting has gone down compared to yesterday. As of 8:37 A.M, C.S.T), the ten year treasury yield was up 13 basis points. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Overview | MarketWatch
Most Americans falsely think the U.S. is in recession, poll shows Unfortunately, Trump and his party have created an Orwellian alternate reality where tens of millions are permanent residents. Facts are Fake News in Trump's America.
ADP reported that the economy added 152,000 private sector jobs in May. ADP® Employment Report
Services PMI® at 53.8% Up from 49.4% in April and better than the consensus forecast of 50.7%. The new orders component rose 1.9 to 54.1%.
Chart: All Employees, Service-Providing - St. Louis Fed
Manufacturing May PMI® at 48.7% Any number below 50% indicates an ongoing contraction. I discussed this report in a comment.
Chart All Employees, Manufacturing-St. Louis Fed
European Central Bank cuts interest rates for first time since 2019 The benchmark rate was cut to 3.75% from 4%. The ECB benchmark rate was in negative territory for a long time. Chart: ECB Deposit Facility Rate for Euro Area -St. Louis Fed
Bank of Canada cuts rates, economists predict another reduction next month The cut was from 5% to 4.75%.
Switzerland becomes first major economy to cut interest rates in surprise move (3/21/24) The rate was reduced .25% to 1.5%.
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills: $10,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $5,000 in principal amoutn
Inflow Common Stocks: +$436.39
(Consisting of $1,413.68 in purchases minus $977.29 in proceeds)
Equity Preferred Stock: -$321.75
2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$30,873.32
+++
Demagogue Don and His Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Trump once said indicted candidates shouldn’t run.
Global warming surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius for an entire year - The Washington Post; Trump pressed oil executives to give $1 billion for his campaign, people in industry say - POLITICO
Fact check: Trump’s post-conviction monologue was filled with false claims
Trump: "We're living in a fascist state." 'We're living in a fascist state' Donald Trump rages against conviction | DW News - YouTube; Republican senator J.D. Vance reacts to Trump calling US 'fascist state' - YouTube
The republican responses to Trump's felony convictions were predictable. 'What I just heard makes me sick': Michael Beschloss reacts to GOP defense of Trump - YouTube
Elon Musk leaped to Trump's defense after the felony convictions. Elon Musk Is Absolutely Raging About the Trump Verdict
Trump Announces $34.8 Million Fund-Raising Haul After Guilty Verdict - The New York Times This haul was within 24 hours after the jury returned its verdict.
Trump campaign and RNC say they raised $141 million in May
Business leaders speak out about Trump guilty verdict, with one immediately donating $300K | Fox Business The donor who gave $300,000 was Shaun Maguire, a partner in Sequoia Capital. Why Megadonors Are Unfazed by Donald Trump’s Guilty Verdict - The New York Times
Fox News hosts trash Trump conviction, vow political redemption - The Washington Post
Trump’s former spiritual advisor calls guilty charge an ‘assassination attempt’ - YouTube
The MAGA Internet Calls for War - The Atlantic
The guilty verdict has resulted in a substantial increase in Trumpster violent threats and other malicious activity. Trump supporters try to doxx jurors and post violent threats after his conviction; Trump supporters call for riots and violent retribution after verdict | Reuters; Michael Cohen's family doxxed after Trump guilty verdict in porn star hush money case; Trump supporters try to dox jurors and post violent threats after his conviction
Anthony Fauci Gets Death Threats After Marjorie Taylor Greene's Remarks - Newsweek
Hear from former 'Apprentice' producer who says he heard Trump say the N-word - YouTube
Trump fans turn US flags upside down to protest former president’s conviction
Senator McConnell (R-KY) suggests 'discipline' for Dem senators pressuring Supreme Court over Alito flags This is the republican response to Democrat criticism of Alito's conflicts. Sanction the critics is their response and give Alito a pass.
A Washington Post investigation found that many of Justice Alito's statements about the upside down flag flown at his home, which he made in a letter to Congress, were not true. What we still don’t know about the flags flown at Justice Alito’s homes-The Washington Post; Samuel Alito's Neighbor Disputes Flag Story: 'Outright Lying' - Newsweek I believe it is probable that the two flags represented a statement in support of the January 6th republican insurrectionists or, at a minimum, in support of their claim that the election was stolen from Trump.
My Video: Republican Hypocrisy and Inconsistent Opinions - YouTube
‘Oh sure’: Gov. Sununu (R-NH) on voting for Trump after conviction - YouTube
Fact check: Trump falsely claims he didn’t call to lock up Hillary Clinton | CNN Politics The phrase "lock her up" was used by Trump and was a common chant by republicans at his rallies. It was not even conditioned on Clinton being tried and convicted for an unspecified crime.
'If facts don't matter, this country is lost': Weissmann on MAGA assault on rule of law - YouTube
Billions in taxpayer dollars now go to religious schools via vouchers - The Washington Post Republican Supreme Court Justices have eroded the separation of church and state. The Supreme Court takes a wrecking ball to the wall between church and state - Vox; The Supreme Court Wants to End the Separation of Church and State - POLITICO Justice Alito is leading that charge. Of the six Republican Supreme Court Justices, 5 are Catholics and the other one was raised as a Catholic before joining another church as an adult. How Did Six Conservative Catholics Become Supreme Court Justices Together?
Trump’s businesses and campaign have given financial benefits to witnesses, ProPublica report shows - YouTube; Trump Witnesses Have Received Financial Benefits From Trump Businesses, Campaign — ProPublica
Three Trump allies charged in Wisconsin fake elector scheme
GOP’s Biden-Manhattan conspiracy theory suffers a double blow - The Washington Post, republished at MSN, GOP’s Biden-Manhattan conspiracy theory suffers a double blow There can be no doubt that Trump and other republicans will create fact free conspiracy theories that will be accepted without question by republicans.
Conservative attacks on birth control could threaten access - The Washington Post 17 republican controlled legislatures have blocked passage of laws "assuring the right to birth control since 2022."
Senate GOP blocks bill to guarantee access to contraception The constitutional "right to privacy", recently abolished by the Republican Supreme Court Justices, had its origins in the Supreme Court decision Griswold v. Connecticut In that case, the Court struck down a Connecticut law passed in 1879 "banned the use of any drug, medical device, or other instrument in furthering contraception. A gynecologist at the Yale School of Medicine . . opened a birth control clinic . . in conjunction with Estelle Griswold, who was the head of Planned Parenthood in Connecticut. They were arrested and convicted of violating the law, and their convictions were affirmed by higher state courts." The Supreme Court reversed the convictions in a 7 to 2 decision. Two of the concurring Justices, including its leading conservative, the republican John M. Harlan II, believed that the source of that Constitutional right was in the 14th Amendment Due Process Clause that would later be accepted as the source by the 7 member majority in the Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973) decision authored by the conservative Republican Justice Harry A. Blackmun with other conservative republican Justices joining the majority decision including the Chief Justice Warren E. Burger and Lewis F. Powell, Jr..
So the right of privacy constitutional right was first recognized in a Supreme Court decision that overturned a state law banning contraceptives.
My video: Senate Republicans Block Law Protecting Access to Contraception - YouTube
Former Trump adviser John Bolton: 'Xi and Putin see Trump as an easy mark'- YouTube
++++++
Psychopath Putin and His Declining Orwellian State:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov! - YouTube; Drone Strikes On Russian Oil Installations Cause Fire, Damage The drones are slow moving, yet Russia is unable to protect anything with their air defense systems. This oil refinery is located near the Ukraine border. It is only a question of time before it is leveled into rubble.
HIMARS Destroys S-300 Launchers, Command Vehicle and Damages Radar in Belgorod! - YouTube
Big Russian Column Destroyed by Drones in Kursk! (At Least TEN Trucks Destroyed) - YouTube
Putin 'will pay a big price' for Russia's losses North of Kharkiv - YouTube
Russia Accidentally Bombs Itself Again: Reports - Newsweek
Putin Threatens Germany and U.S. - National Review
Putin's 'inability' exposed after Kharkiv push doesn't reach objectives - YouTube
++++
1. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added to NMFC - Bought 45 at $12.57:
Quote: New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) - Externally Managed BDC\c
Cost: $565.43
5 Year Financial Data:
Page 61, Annual Report |
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 22 and ends at page 52)
New Average Cost per share: $12.18 (100 shares)
This purchase raised my AC per share from $11.86. Some low cost shares that are still owned were bought in 2020.
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share ($1.28 annually)
New Mountain Finance (NMFC) Stock Dividend History & Date
Four special dividends totalling $.21 per share were paid in 2023.
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at new AC = 10.51% (regular dividend only)
Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/23
The next dividend will include a 2 cent special dividend.
Last Buy Discussions: Stocks, Bonds &(12/2/23 Post); Item # 1.E. Bought 25 NMFC at $12.85; 5 at $12.79 - Schwab Account (9/2/23 Post)
Net Asset Value per share history:
3/31/24: $12.77
12/31/23: $12.87
9/30/23: $13.06
6/30/23: $13.14
12/31/22: $13.02
IPO May 2011-Prospectus: Public Offering Price at $13.75 (all expenses including the sales load paid by the management company)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24
Net Investment Income per share: $.36
Weighted average yield at cost: 11.16%
115 portfolio companies
Portfolio composition:
Floating Rate Loans at 89.67%
10-Q at page 33 |
Estimated Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Net Investment Income:
10-Q at page 126 |
Risk Ratings and Bad Loans Summarized:
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Eliminated Duplicate NMFC Positions (Fidelity and Vanguard Accounts)- Sold 30 Shares at $12.86 (9/2/2023)(profit snapshots = $160.55); Item # 2.G. Pared NMFC in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $13.39 (8/6/21 Post); Item # 2.H. Sold All Fractional NMFC Shares Bought with Dividends in Fidelity Account at $13.69 (6/25/21 Post); Item # 3.G. Pared NMFC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $12.27 (1/1/21 Post); Item # 2 Eliminated NMFC-Sold 102+ at $14.2 (1/25/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 NMFC at $13.95 (1/15/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Eliminated NMFC-Sold 60 at $13.96 and 50 at $13.94 (2/9/19 Post); Item # 1 A. Sold 50 NMFC at $14.06 (8/19/18 Post); Item # 1 Sold Remaining 50 Shares of NMFC at $14.63 (11/1/14 Post); Sold 100 of 150 NMFC at $14.4773 (10/23/14 Post); Item # 8 Sold Highest Cost NMFC Lot at $15.37 (9/14/2014 Post)
Realized Gains NMFC to Date: +$434.15
Goal: Any total return before any ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividend received.
B. Added to SPTN - Bought 5 at $18.95:
Quote: SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)
Cost: $94.75
"SpartanNash operates two complementary business segments – food wholesale and grocery retail. Its global supply chain network serves wholesale customers that include independent and chain grocers, national retail brands, e-commerce platforms, and U.S. military commissaries and exchanges. . . . On the retail side, SpartanNash operates 147 brick-and-mortar grocery stores, primarily under the banners of Family Fare, Martin’s Super Markets and D&W Fresh Market, in addition to dozens of pharmacies and fuel centers."
SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
10-Q for the F/Q Ending 4/20/24 (1st fiscal quarter)Investment Category: Possible Masochistic Contrarian Value
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to SPTN - Bought 5 at $18.81 (4/19/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 fiscal 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release I noted in that post that SPTN borrowed money at spreads to short term rates. The company guided fiscal 2024 adjusted E.P.S. to $1.85 -$2.1, down from the actual F/Y 2022 adjusted E.P.S. of $2.18.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.F. Eliminated SPTN - Sold 15 at $29.01 in Fidelity Account; 20 at $31.05 in Vanguard Account; 10 at $30.64 in Schwab Account (3/23/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $421.49)
New Average cost per share: $19.49 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2175 per share ($.87 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. The quarterly dividend was $.12 in the 2014 first quarter.
SPTN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 4.46%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/24
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 4/20/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Net Revenues: $2.806+B, down from $2.907+B
Diluted GAAP E.P.S. = $.37, up from $.32
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.53, down from $.64
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
Adjusted EBITDA:
Fiscal 2024 Guidance: The company maintained the adjusted E.P.S. guidance but lowered the net sales guidance.
C. Added to CVI - Bought 5 at $27.7; 5 at $27.1; 5 at $26.7:
Quote: CVR Energy Inc. (CVI)
Cost: $407.5
CVI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Welcome to CVR Energy
New Average cost per share: $27.86 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 per share (regular dividend)
Cash Dividends | CVR Energy, Inc.
$2.5 per share was paid in special dividends last year.
Yield at New AC: 7.18% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 5/10/24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 5 CVI at $29.38; 5 at $28.4 (5/17/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
D. Added to GILD - Bought 1 at $63.45:
Quote: Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
GILD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $64.6 (6 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.77 per share ($3.08 annually)
Yield at $64.6: 4.77%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/24
I discussed the first quarter earnings reports in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.A. Restarted GILD - Bought 5 at $64.83 (5/31/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
E. Added to APA - Bought 5 at $28.95:
Quote: APA Corp. (APA)
Cost: $144.75
APA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $29.85 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Dividend History | APA Corporation
Yield at New AC = 3.35%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/19/24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Started APA - Bought 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.3; 5 at $29.8; 5 at $29.5 (5/24/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
F. Restarted VLY - Bought 20 at $6.74:
The preceding snapshot shows the last VLY elimination in this account, where I sold 31+ shares at $10.83. Item # 2.B. Eliminated VLY - Sold 31+ at $10.83 (1/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $110.71) I mentioned in that post my consider to repurchase price would be less than $8.
Cost: $134.8
Quote: Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
I classify the management of this bank as below average. The purchase price is sufficiently low enough for me to restart a position, which assumes there is no major undisclosed bad loans that are not already included in nonaccrual loans as of 3/31/24.
I substantially reduced my regional bank allocation for the reasons generally discussed in this video: 4th Q Real GDP and PCE Inflation - YouTube
VLY | Valley National Bancorp Analyst Estimates
Properties as of 12/31/2023: 229 banking centers of which 96 are owned
Page 37, Annual Report |
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Added 4 VLY at $6.98; 1 at $6.7 (5/20/23 Post) Those shares have been sold.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Dividend History: Unfavorable.
The last change in the quarterly dividend was to slash the rate to $.11 from $.165 effective for the 2014 1st quarter payment.
Yield at $6.74: 6.53%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
Comparisons are to the 2023 first quarter.
Net Income: $96.28M, down from $146.551M
E.P.S.: $.18, down from $.28
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.19, down from $.30.
GAAP to Non-GAAP E.P.S.:
Tax Equivalent NIM: 2.79%, down from 3.16%
Efficiency Ratio: 59.1%, up from 53.9%
NPL Ratio: .58%, up from .50%
Charge off ratio: .19%, down from .25%
Total Capital Ratio: 11.88%, up from 11.58%
Tangible Book Value per share: $8.84, up from $8.36
Buying at a price lower than tangible book value per share is one of my criterias for restarting a regional bank stock position.
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.M. Eliminated VLY in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $11.76 and Item # 2.N. Eliminated VLY in Vanguard Account - Sold 15 at $11.75 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $134.03);Item # 1.A. Eliminated VLY-Sold 102+ at $10.51 (9/11/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.12); Item # 2.A. Eliminated VLY Sold 51+ VLY at $12.76 (7/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $98.62) Some sales were not discussed but snapshots are included in the main Regional Bank Basket Strategy post linked above.
Largest Gain: $197.85 in 2016
VLY Realized Gains to Date: $666.21
Preferred Stock Position: I currently own 10 VLYPP, a fixed-to-floating rate preferred stock that transitions, if not called, to a floating rate on 6/30/25: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 VLYPP at $16.31 (6/3/2023 Post) Valley National Bancorp 6.25% Preferred Series A (U.S.: Nasdaq)
VLY Bond Position: I own 2 VLY 4.55% Junior bonds. tem # 3.G. Bought 2 Valley National 4.55% Junior Bonds Maturing on 6/30/25 at a Total Cost of 92.752 (6/10/23 Post)(YTM then at 8.447%); Bond Page | FINRA.org
CDs: I own 2 Valley Bank 5.3% CDs that mature on 7/8/2024.
2. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated AY - Sold 40 at $21.9:
Quote: Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure PLC (AY)
Proceeds: $876.17
As previously discussed, AY is in the process of being acquired for $22 per share in cash. Atlantica Enters into Agreement to be Acquired by Energy Capital Partners and its Co-Investors Several regulatory authorities have to sign off on the acquisition. I did not see any reason to hang onto the shares any longer.
Profit Snapshot: $138.04
Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Pared AY - Sold 5 at $21.05 (5/10/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.445 per share ($1.78 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 5/31/24 (owned all as of)
B. Pared 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in BBDC - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $10.12 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $101.12
BBDC SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Risk Factor summary starts at page 33 and ends at page 68)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 (Summary of investments starts at page 8)
Breakdown of Assets: 67% First Lien
10-Q at page 41 |
Barings purchased the asset of another BDC, formerly called Triangle Capital, that was internally managed. The name and symbol was changed to Barings BDC (BBDC) as the external manager. Triangle Capital Corporation Completes Previously Announced Sale of Investment Portfolio Barings Becomes Investment Adviser to Barings BDC, Inc. Barings paid the Triangle Capital shareholders $1.78+ per share to accept Barings as the external manager. Barings also injected $100M in cash through the purchase of shares at $11.72.
Subsequent Acquisitions:
Barings BDC Completes Merger with Sierra Income Corp (2/25/22)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to BBDC - Bought 10 at $8.67 - Vanguard Account (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to BBDC -Bought 10 at $8.94 -Vanguard Account (11/25/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 40 BBDC at $7,75 - Vanguard Taxable Account (7/15/23 Post); Item # 2.F. Added B BBDC at $7.21 - Vanguard Taxable Account (5/20/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 5 BBDC at $7.65 - Vanguard Taxable Account (3/19/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot = $1.65
New Average cost per share: $8.38 (43+ Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually), last raised from $.25 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
Barings BDC Inc (BBDC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 12.41%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/5/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
Net Investment Income: $29.4M
NII per share: $.28
Net Asset value per share: $11.44, up from $11.28 as of 12/31/23.
Weighted average yield on performing loans: 10.7%
"During the three months ended March 31, 2024, the Company repurchased a total of 115,911 shares of its common stock in the open market under the authorized program at an average price of $9.56 per share, including brokerage commissions."
"On February 12, 2024, the Company issued $300.0 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes that mature on February 15, 2029 and bear interest at a rate of 7.000% per annum." Prospectus for $300M in 7% Notes
Nonaccrual loans: As of March 31, 2024, we had six portfolio companies with investments on non-accrual, the aggregate fair value of which was $7.9 million, which comprised 0.3% of the total fair value of our portfolio, and the aggregate cost of which was $38.1 million, which comprised 1.5% of the total cost of our portfolio."
Page 122, 10-Q |
Estimate Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Net Investment Income
Page 142, 10-Q |
A. Bought 1 Bank of America 5.55% SU Maturing on 12/3/25 at Par Value:
Issuer: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
BAC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Interest Paid Quarterly
Purchased under Fidelity's Corporate Notes Program.
B. Bought 2 Canadian Resources 3.9% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.9:
Issuer: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)
CNQ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CNQ SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the 2024 First Quarter
I previously eliminated my common stock position: Item # 1.A. Eliminated CNQ - Sold 10 at $55.2 (6/10/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $237.5)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB-
Credit Ratings – Canadian Natural Resources
YTM at Total Cost: 5.616%
Current yield at TC = 3.94%
I now own 6 bonds.
I had 2 bonds mature on 4/15/24:
I now own 6 bonds.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 6/3/2024 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 12/5/24
Interest: $260.62
Investment Rate: 5.366%
5. Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Eliminated CADEPRA - Sold 15 at $21.45:
Quote: CADE-PA
Proceeds: +321.75
Issuer: Cadence Bank (CADE) - Bank Holding Company
CADE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $59.5
Buy Discussions: Item # 4.B. Added 5 CADEPRA at $16.75 (10/21/23 Post); Item # 2.E. Bought 10 CADEPRA at $17.85 (7/22/23 Post)
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative
Coupon: 5.5% paid on a $25 par value
Optional Call: On or after 11/20/24
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Stopper Clause: Standard
Last Ex Dividend: 5/2/24 (owned as of)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)
ReplyDelete$12.31 -$0.01 -0.08%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gdo?mod=search_symbol
GDO is a leveraged bond CEF that was scheduled to liquidate its assets in December and to then distribute the assets to its shareholders.
Shareholders approved a change that would remove the termination date, provided more than $50M in assets remained after the fund made an offer to acquire all shares tendered at net asset value per share which will be made in September.
If less than $50M remains after the tender offer, then the offer will be canceled and the fund will liquidate in December.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240611874266/en/
I voted for this change since I am in the red after my last purchase and I like the monthly dividend.
The fund is now trading near net asset value. Based on the close yesterday, net asset value per share was at $12.56.
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GDO
GDO Realized Gains to date: $961.09
Snapshots at Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO - Sold 224+ at $16.57.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2019/03/observations-and-sample-of-recent.html
I currently own 110 with an average cost per share of $15.29. I am not reinvesting the monthly dividend.
May CPI:
ReplyDeleteCPI Annual: 3.3%, down from 3.4% through April
Core CPI Annual: 3.4%, down from 3.6% through April
Month-To-Month CPI: Unchanged
Month-To-Month Core CPI: +.02%
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Annual owners equivalent rent: 5.7%, down from 5.8% through April
Month-To-Month OER = .4%, unchanged.
The stock and bond markets have reacted so far favorably to this report. The inflation numbers are still being kept artificially high by owners equivalent rent, a fictional expense weighted at 26.627% in CPI and higher in core CPI.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm
The ten year treasury yield is currently down 13 basis points.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
My stock portfolio is weighted in interest rate sensitive securities like REITs which are outperforming the S&P 500 today.
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
$84.94 +$2.00 +2.41%
Last Updated: Jun 12, 2024 at 11:02 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq?mod=search_symbol
S&P 500 Index
5,437.38 +62.06 +1.15%
The S&P 500 index was at 20 in the month that I was born.
"Fed holds rates steady, indicates only one cut coming this year"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-on-interest-rate.html
11 members see 1 rate cut and 8 are still forecasting 2.
I have been predicting no more than one 25 basis point cut in the current FF range this year. While it is possible that this cut may occur at the September meeting, and that becomes more likely with inflation continue to trend down, I still view it as more probable that the cut will occur, if at all, at the December 2024 meeting, which would take the FF range down from 5.25% to 5.5% to 5% to 5.25%.
I did not see the inflation report changing this forecast which I have been making for several months. The month-to-month inflation numbers will need to continue trending below .3% in order to have a rate cut when the economy remaining resilient and annual inflation remaining over 3%.
The Fed's prediction is in the dot plot:
Table 3:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240612.htm
News stories will generally use the majority number but a significant minority of FED members still anticipate two 25 basis point cuts.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/06/cmcsa-cnobp-emp-enb-jqc-pine-reiunca.html