Economy:
Global fight against inflation 'almost won' but risks are rising: IMF Problematic inflation was a worldwide event caused mostly by the pandemic and the supply chain disruptions resulting therefrom.
My Video: Trump's False Statements on Tariffs - Increases are taxes paid by U S consumers - YouTube
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Would Fall Hardest on States in the Midwest and South | Tax Policy Center
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ - YouTube
Trump plan would hasten Social Security insolvency: Budget group; What Would the Trump Campaign Plans Mean for Social Security?-2024-10-21 (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, published on 10/21/24).
Trump has promised to protect Social Security. His proposals could lead to benefit cuts in 6 years
Existing-Home Sales Slid 1.0% in September (My comment on this report)
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $20,000 in principal amount
Tennessee Municipal Bonds: $5,000 in principal amount
Outflow Common Stocks: -$1,600.65
(Consisting of $1,851.43 in proceeds minus $250.78 in purchases)
Net Outflow Common Stocks: -$1,600.65
Outflow REIT Equity Preferred Stock: -$320.7
Net Outflow Leveraged Bond CEFs: -$584.69
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$48,267.21 (discussed in posts)
Treasury Yield Curve October 2024: The rise this month in intermediate and longer term yields is creating among some stock investors.
Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
Real Yield Curve Rates October 2024:10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.42% and rising this month.
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Portfolio Issues:
I received a notice that the Harpeth Valley Utility District will redeem my 10 bonds early:
Municipal bonds are not issued with "make whole" provisions that could increase the principal amount that has to be paid upon an early redemption. Instead, there is a call protection period, usually 10 years after issuance, and the issuer may then call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
My last purchase was on 8/13/24 at a total cost of 98.04 Item # 6.A. (8/15/24 Post) The optional redemption period started on or after 9/1/23. This was a lien tax free bond on water/sewer revenues.
I will realize a "profit" of $118.
After this 10 bond lot is redeemed, I will still own 5 Harpeth Valley Utility District 3.25% tax free Water/Sewer bonds that mature on 9/1/38, purchased at a total cost of 90.07, YTM then at 4.026% and a current TF yield of 3.61%. Item # 6.A. (3/28/20 Post)
I had a two year CD issued by JP Morgan Chase Bank called early. This CD would have matured on 1/21/25:
I can replace the 4.65% coupon with a three month treasury bill purchase at the next auction. I will simply add the $2K in proceeds to the $5K that I already plan to use.
My Video: 5 Year TIP Auction on October 24th Compared to the IBonds - YouTube I discussed redeeming all of my IBonds purchased in 2022 that had zero fixed rates. My coupon was just the CPI inflation rate of 1.48% for 6 months annualized to 2.96%.
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Trump and His Party:
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Military leaders who served under Trump sound the alarm about him winning a second presidency
Trump’s wild and lewd rhetoric reaches a new extreme
Trump’s abrupt decision to play DJ, a sign of ‘accelerating cognitive decline’ says Cornell expert
Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini - The Atlantic Column written by Anne Applebaum.
Is It Fascism? A Leading Historian Changes His Mind. - The New York Times The historian, Robert Paxton, viewed as the authority on fascism, confirmed his prior assessment that fascism was bubbling to the surface in the U.S. through Trump.
'Significant moment': Haberman reacts to John Kelly's Trump comments - YouTube
My Videos: Trump's Fascist Rhetoric - YouTube; Retired 4 Star Marine General John Kelly Calls Trump a Fascist on the record - YouTube
UCLA study tracks former President Donald Trump’s weaponization of words | UCLA
Were you aware that Harris wants to ban cows to stop climate change? Yes, that is true but only in Orwellian Universe known as TrumpWorld.
Trump in North Carolina: "Kamala even wants to pass laws to outlaw red meat to stop climate change"
Trump in Georgia: "She wants to get rid of your cows. No more cows." Trump prophecies of doom about Harris are recycled bits about Biden - The Washington Post
AI Trump: Banning the Cows - YouTube
Trump makes vulgar comments about Arnold Palmer at Pennsylvania rally - CBS News; AI Trump: Arnold Palmer's Dong - YouTube
Trump's daily vulgar comments are viewed as funny by Trumpsters.
Trump: "Great presidents? Lincoln was probably a great president, although I’ve always said, why wasn’t that settled? You know, I’m a guy that—it doesn’t make sense we had a Civil War…. But you could almost say, like, why wasn’t that [settled]? as an example, Ukraine would have never happened, and Russia, if I were president. Israel would have never happened; October 7 would have never happened, as you know." Trump Suggests Abraham Lincoln Should’ve Let the South Keep a Little Slavery | Vanity Fair
Fact-checking Donald Trump's Univision Town Hall - Newsweek It is just amazing that anyone believes anything that Trump says. Yet, almost 80% of republicans view Trump as honest.
Trump says Jan. 6 was a "day of love," glossing over his supporters' assault on officers - CBS News
'I helped create a monster': Ex-'Apprentice' executive issues apology about Trump - YouTube
Bob Woodward Is Certain Donald Trump Is Unfit To Lead The Country - YouTube
'Stupid...ill-tempered': McConnell reportedly unloads on Trump in new book - YouTube; ‘Stupid…narcissist…a despicable human being’: Hear what Mitch McConnell thinks of Donald Trump - YouTube; McConnell called Trump ‘stupid,’ a ‘despicable human being,’ new book says - The Washington Post Trump is IMO insane and untethered from reality. Those qualities will be aggravated by his unwillingness to learn or to accept any information that contradicts his reality creations. All republican politicians who have failed to stand up to him, and all people voting for him who are deemed to know now how unfit Trump is, will be solely responsible for all the crazy stuff he does and says if elected.
If Trump wins, his false and misleading states will most likely exceed his 30,573 count for his first term, but he will still be viewed as honest by republicans. Trump’s false or misleading claims total 30,573 over 4 years - The Washington Post
Only in TrumpWorld does someone became an "extremely stable genius" by saying that he is one.
Vance says 'no' Trump didn't lose the 2020 election - ABC News (10/16/24) Vance has previously stated that he would not have accepted the certified state election results in 4 states won by Biden if he had been the VP rather than Pence.
Russia First - YouTube (Lincoln Project Ad)
The Trump-Putin Peace Plan for Ukraine is for the U.S. to cut off all military and economic aid to Ukraine, Ukraine allowing Russia to take at least 1/5th of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory and absorb that territory into the Russian Federation, and Ukraine agreeing to demilitarize which under the Trump-Putin plan means that Ukraine can not receive military arms from the West, nor will it be allowed to join NATO. In exchange for those concessions, the Trump-Putin Peace Plan provides that Putin will promise to honor past treaties that Russia has violated repeatedly and behave himself in the future. A silent provision in the Trump-Putin Peace Plan is that Russia can undermine what is left of Ukraine's economy, interfere in its domestic and political affairs, destabilize the economy and absorb the remaining Ukrainian territory within ten years. This plan is supported by a republican politicians and Trump voters who will be directly responsible for the fall of Ukraine.
Trump's ALL-WOMEN Town Hall, Says He’s the Father of IVF & Dave Bautista Shreds Trump's Masculinity - YouTube; Harris & Obama Appeal to Black Male Voters & Trump Claims He's “Father of IVF” | The Daily Show - YouTube
12 fact checks from Donald Trump's all-women Fox News town hall - Poynter
‘Central Park Five’ members sue Trump for defamation after his debate comments on 1989 case During the debate with Harris, Trump said that the Central Park Five teenagers had "badly hurt a person, killed a person” in an attack and that they had plead guilty. Neither assertion is true. The teenagers did not plead guilty and were later exonerated by DNA evidence.
Bret Baier is IMO a less watchable version of Sean Hannity. He is not a journalist but a propagandist for Trump's republican party.
Fox News does not employ any journalists IMO, but pleasant looking personalities that do what is necessary to keep their viewers from turning the channel to OAN and similar media outlets.
An example during Baier's interview with Harris is his misleading attempt to whitewash Trump's word about the military or national guard being used against the "enemies from within", which Trump has used in reference to political opponents. Trump doubles down on calling Democrats 'enemies from within' at Georgia town hall; Trump stands by military threats, calling political opponents ‘the enemy within’ - YouTube He has specifically identified Democrat politicians as those enemies. Trump Escalates Threats to Political Opponents He Deems the ‘Enemy’ - The New York Times
Trump calls election case Judge Chuktan evil
Federal judge blasts DeSantis administration for threats against TV stations | CNN Business Trump's republican party is an authoritarian leaning one.
Fox News and Bret Baier are still taking heat for the Kamala Harris interview - Poynter
Chris Wallace breaks down Trump’s week of ‘odd’ actions on campaign trail - YouTube
Trump repeats FEMA Helene relief disinformation - YouTube
Tom Nichols: Donald Trump Would Be “George Washington’s Nightmare” | Amanpour and Company - YouTube
Trump 'thinks' he will sue CBS over '60 Minutes' Harris interview Trump had agreed to a 60 minutes interview and then pulled out. CBS did provide a full transcript of the Harris interview: VP Kamala Harris makes the case for why she should be president | 60 Minutes - CBS News I hope that he files that suit. He needs to be sanctioned again for filing frivolous lawsuits. Judge sanctions Trump, Habba nearly $1 million for ‘completely frivolous’ Clinton suit - POLITICO; Did $1 Million Fine for Frivolous Suit Teach Trump a Lesson? (46 Page Opinion and Orderv.pdf)
The WP published a story on Mike Davis, a far right lawyer who will likely be the one advising Trump on judicial appointments if he wins. Davis had told Trump's critics that they will need to lawyer up and Trump's supporters need to arm up. Trump has complained that some of his appointments were too impartial and wanted more judges like Aileen Cannon.
My video: If Trump wins, Mike Davis will likely select Judges and Justices. Who is he? - YouTube
Referring to Trump's immigration policy that separated children, Davis reportedly made this remark: "We're gonna put kids in cages. It's gonna be glorious. He threatens to throw journalists into a gulag. If Trump appoints him as AG, he suggested that he would oversee a “three-week reign of terror”, indicting Trump opponents and purging the government of those who were not loyal to Trump. Mike Davis trolls the left online. He could also help Trump pick MAGA judges - The Washington Post
If Trump wins, I would expect Alito and Thomas to retire provided the Senate is controlled by republicans which is the most likely scenario. The republicans that will be appointed and confirmed in their place, probably in their 40s, will make Alito and Thomas look like wild liberals.
What Elon Musk Really Wants - The Atlantic "Like so many other billionaire exponents of libertarianism, (Musk) has turned the government into a spectacular profit center" for himself. The trouble with Elon - POLITICO If Trump wins, Musk will be rewarded for his loyalty.
Musk stated last week that he does not trust Dominion voting tabulation software. Musk pushes debunked Dominion voting conspiracy theory as he stumps for Trump
Elon Musk's $1 Million Handouts in Battleground States | Bloomberg The Pulse 10/21/24 - YouTube
Any other CEO would have been fired for what Elon Musk just said
++++
Putin and His Country:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Desperate Putin deploys North Korean soldiers after 'massive losses' - YouTube; At least 3,000 North Korean soldiers now inside Russia, US says | CNN Politics Putin's invasion of Ukraine will in a few months enter its third year. It is clear that his army is not capable of winning this war of choice, and is unable to even dislodge Ukrainian troops from Russian territory, so Putin will be using cannon fodder from NK.
Russians know they're being lied to: Putin's Regime is being corroded - YouTube
Russian Armoured Column Defeated Near Kurakhove -- Five BMPs and One Tank Destroyed - YouTube
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1. Eliminated Leveraged Bond CEF BHK - Sold Remaining 54+ Shares at $11.64:
Quote: BlackRock Core Bond Trust Overview - Leveraged Bond CEF
Proceeds: $639.74
I elected to eliminate this leverage bond CEF since it was selling at what I considered an excessive premium to its net asset value.
Understanding leverage in closed-end funds | Nuveen; Closed-End Funds and Their Use of Leverage: FAQs | Investment Company Institute
As of 9/30/24, effective duration was at 8.95 years and the leverage was at 33.96%. To predict the impact on net asset value per share resulting from changes in interest rates, multiply the percentage change by the duration as just a rule of thumb. So if interest rates went down 1%, the net asset value per share would increase somewhere close to 9.35% and down 9.35% with a 1% increase.
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24
Sponsor's website: Core Bond Trust | BHK
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Pared BHK - Sold 20 at $11.85 (9/19/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $89.67
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added to BHK - Bought 5 at $10.56; 5 at $10.33 (5/27/23 Post)
Data as of 10/17/24 Trade Data:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $10.74
Closing Market Price: $11.68
Premium: +8.75%
Average 3 year discount: -1.5%
Sourced: BHK - CEF Connect
Dividend: Monthly at $.0746 per share ($.8952 annually)
Some ROC support.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/15/24 (owned all as of)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.N. Pared BHK - Sold 5+ at $11.36 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.76); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 BHK at $12.74 (1/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $63); Item # 1 Sold Remaining BHK at $13.07 Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $28.17); Item # 4 Sold 200 of 300 BHK at Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $47.43); Pared Interest Rate Risk Exposure In Roth IRA: Sold 300 ACG At $7.81 And 200 BHK At $13.86 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $99.55); Item # 1 Sold 200 BHK at $13.86-Taxable Account-Completes BHK Transition to Roth IRA (1/14/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.23); Sold All of the Bond CEF BHK at $14.058 (2/21/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.3)
Realized Gains in BHK to Date: $503.87 (of which $497.35 discussed in posts)
Current Position: None. I am unlikely to ever buy a leveraged CEF bond fund at a premium to net asset value per share.
2. Corporate Bonds:
I am currently focused on buying investment grade corporate bonds maturing in the 9/1/25 to 12/31/26 time period.
With these purchases, I am playing a scenario that the CME FedWatch tool, which uses the federal funds futures contracts to predict the future FF rate, is making accurate forecasts or close to it.
The funds used to purchase these bonds come from either the Fidelity Government MM fund or my sweep account at IB whose yields will decline in tandem with cuts in the FF rate.
A. Bought 2 Magna International 4.125% SU Maturing on 10/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.6:
Issuer: Magna International Inc. (MGA)
I recently discussed starting a common stock position. Item # 3.C. Started MGA - Bought 1 at $40.8; 2 at $40.28 (10/10/24 Post)
MGA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.578%
Current Yield at TC = 4.142%
I had 2 Magna International SU bonds mature on 6/15/24:
IB Account |
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D) - Utility Holding Company
I have eliminated my common stock position.
D Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.527%
Current Yield at TC = 3.923%
C. Bought 2 Sonoco Products 4.45% SU Maturing on 9/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.66:
Issuer: Sonoco Products Co. (SON)
SON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 (debt as of 6/30/24 listed at page 23)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.641%
Current Yield at TC: 4.465%
I own 2 Sonoco Products 1.8% SU bonds that mature on 2/1/25. The purchase was made on 5/7/24 at a TC of 98.184, creating a YTM of 5.803%. This kind of purchase is primarily an income shift into 2025 with most of the income being in the $56.32 "profit" realized when the bond is paid off.
Last Bond Offering (9/24): Prospectus
I purchased the 4.45% note in this last bond offering.
D. Bought 2 Brixmor LP 4.125% SU Maturing on 6/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.2:
Issuer: Operating entity for Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX) who does not guarantee the notes.
Brixmor Financial Report for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.627%
Current Yield at TC: 4.158%
The yield on the bond is higher than the common stock dividend yield.
I have 2 Brixmor 3.85% SU that mature on 2/1/25. This is just another kicking the can down the road some that I routinely do with corporate bonds.
Last SU Bond Offering (5/24): Prospectus for $400M in 5.75 SU notes maturing in 2035.
E. Bought 2 Mid-America Apartments 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total cost of 99.429:
Issuer: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Apartment REIT
I have a small ball position in the common shares.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A1
YTM at Total Cost: 4.545%
Current Yield at TC = 4.023%I now own 4 bonds.
F. Bought 2 NNN REIT 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.389:
I own the common stock:
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Pared NNN - Sold 1+ at $46.18 (8/8/24)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Added to NNN - Bought 1 at $37.63; 1 at $36.67; 1 at $35.32; 2 at $34.95 (9/30/23 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.585%
Current yield at TC: 4.025%
I now own 4 bonds with the other two owned in a Roth IRA account.
G. Bought 2 Northwest Pipeline 4% SU Maturing on 4/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.885:
Issuer: Wholly owned indirect subsidiary Williams Cos. (WMB) of who does not guarantee the notes. I own the WMB common stock and have recently been harvesting profits including one that is discussed in Item # 4.D. below.
Northwest Pipeline SEC Filings
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 (revenue of $105.537M, net profit of $42.442M)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.484%
Current Yield at TC = 4.045%
H. Bought 2 Plains All American Pipeline 4.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.923:
Issuer: Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (PAA) - Energy Infrastructure
"PAA is a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and provides logistics services for crude oil and natural gas liquids (“NGL”). PAA owns an extensive network of pipeline gathering and transportation systems, in addition to terminalling, storage, processing, fractionation and other infrastructure assets serving key producing basins, transportation corridors and major market hubs and export outlets in the United States and Canada. On average, PAA handles over 8 million barrels per day of crude oil and NGL."
PAA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
I have never owned the partnership units. For about a decade now, I have stayed away from L.P. units since I do not want to full with their K-1s. The bond issued by an L.P. is not a partnership interest but debt and consequently is subject to K-1 tax reporting.
The debt credit risk issue for an L.P. bond is similar to other pass through entities like BDCs and REITs in that, from the bond owners perspective, far too much of the cash flow is paying out to equity owners
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.693%
Current Yield at TC = 4.654%
I. Bought 1 Entergy New Orleans 4% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.123:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Entergy New Orleans results can be found at pages 139-152. For this quarter, the company reported revenues of $199.341M and net income of $21.133M.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
These are very low credit ratings for a senior secured bond issued by an electric utility. The reason is the relatively small service territory located in a low lying area subject to hurricanes and accompanying storm surges out of the Gulf, the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain. The most recent destructive hurricane hitting NO was Hurricane Katrina in 2005. There was some flooding from Hurricane Francine in September 2024. List of Louisiana hurricanes (2000–present) - Wikipedia
YTM at Total Cost: 4.564%
Current Yield at TC: 4.035%
Entergy New Orleans also has 2 different $25 par value first mortgage bonds that trades like a stock, which I have never owned.
Entergy New Orleans LLC 5% Series due 2052 (ENJ); Prospectus
Entergy New Orleans LLC 5.5% Due 1/1/2066 (ENO); Prospectus
If and when I buy a few shares of ENJ, the total number would be 10 or less. A lot can go wrong for this utility prior to maturity. I reduce the potential negative impacts of hurricanes by keeping my exposure in short term bonds.
J. Bought 1 Boston Properties LP 3.65% SU Maturing on 2/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.468:
Issuer: Operating entity for BXP Inc (BXP), formerly known as Boston Properties, which does not guarantee the notes. BXP owns approximately 89.1% of Boston Properties LP.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.884%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.707%
I own 4 Boston Properties 3.2% SU bonds that mature on 1/15/25.
K. Bought 1 Piedmont Natural Gas 3.6% SU Maturing on 9/1/2025 at a Total Cost of 99.26:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - A Large Utility Holding Company
DUK 2023 SEC Filed Annual Report
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.473%
Current Yield at TC: 3.627%
I now own 5 bonds including 1 in a RI account.
L. Bought 1 Bank of America 4.5% SU Maturing on 4/21/26 at 100 - Fidelity Corporate Notes Program:
Issuer Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
I have eliminated my small ball common stock position.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A
Interest Paid Quarterly
I have staggered $1,000 par value BAC senior unsecured bonds that were bought as original issuances.
All $1,000 par value - SU - 1 bond lots |
3. Small Ball Buys:
A. Started UGI - Bought 5 at $25.2; 5 at $24.96:
Quote UGI Corp. (UGI) - Holding company
Cost: $250.78
UGI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/18/24, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2024 was $2.95 and at $3.03 for 2025.
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/23
UGI owns AmeriGas, the largest retail distributor of propane; natural gas utilities serving customers in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia; an electric utility serving customers in Pennsylvania; a liquified natural gas distribution business in Europe; and operates natural gas pipelines and storage facilities in the U.S.
The stock has taken a hit over the past 3 years due in part to significant charges taken after selling its European energy marketing business in Europe (natural gas and electricity) and the erratic performance of AmeriGas that resulted in a $660M goodwill impairment charge in the 2023 third quarter.
Though it is unknowable with any certainty, I suspect that all of the previously disclosed bad news is baked into the current stock price and then some.
See, 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 at pages 10, 17-18, 41-428
The stock was trading near $46 in January 2022.
This stock is discussed in a Motley Fool article published after my purchase. Why I Just Bought This Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stock | The Motley Fool (10/19/24)
Investment Category: Bond Substitute with some dividend growth.
Average cost per share: $25.08 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.375 per share ($1.5 annually), last raised from $.36 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment. The dividend was at $.2175 in the 2014 4th quarter after a 3 for 2 stock split. Dividends | UGI Corporation
Yield at $25.08: 5.98%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release This was for the third fiscal quarter.
This quarter was messy as were several prior quarters due primarily to charge offs.
Revenues: $1.38B
GAAP E.P.S. ($.23)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.03
9 month GAAP E.P.S. $2.81 (earnings are weather related)
9 month non-GAAP E.P.S. $3.22
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
AmeriGas Propane Results:
This business is still problematic. Net loss for the quarter was $36M with $17M in net income for the 9 months.
Snapshot Intraday on 10/18 after add |
4. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared TRP - Sold 10 at $47.47:
Quotes:
USD: TC Energy Corp. (TRP) - Canadian Energy Infrastructure
CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rates Chart | Xe
Proceeds: $475.69
I sold my highest cost 10 shares.
TRP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TRP SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.A. Added to TRP - Bought 2 at $37.29; 1 at $36.35; 1 at $36.15; 1 at $33.6 (7/29/23 Post) The tax cost basis for those lots have been adjusted down to account for the Southbow spinoff discussed below.
Profit Snapshot: +$22.54
New Average cost per share: US$34.83 (28 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/17/24 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $37.59, which was recently adjusted as explained below.
I mentioned in a recent post that my TRP tax cost basis had been adjusted down to reflect the South Bow (SOBO) spinoff. The tax cost basis went from $41.29 to $37.59. I received 7 shares for each TRP and a $13.09 cash payment for the fractional share. I sold the 7 shares for a $11.29 profit.
TC Energy completes spinoff of its Liquids Pipelines business, South Bow Corporation
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.96 per share (C$3.84)
TC Energy — Dividend Information
When the dividend is paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account, Canada will withhold a 15% tax. Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab I will fill out the IRS Form 1116 which is necessary to claim more than a $300 foreign tax credit.
Under the current U.S-Canada tax treaty, Canada does not tax the TRP dividend paid into a U.S. citizens retirement account. I own TRP in RI accounts.
Yield at US$34.83: Yield is impossible to calculate since the USD dividend for TRP will depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate which changes.
If I assumed a constant .73 CAD/US exchange rate, near where it is now, the dividend yield at $34.83 and assuming no change in the CAD dividend rate, would be about 8.04% .
All sums rounded: C$3.84 x. .73 conversion rate = Annual US$2.80 per share ÷ US$34.83 average cost per share = 8.04%.
Dividend History: Good IMO for an energy infrastructure company.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/27/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed this report here: Item # 5.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in TRP - Sold 10 at at $42.28 - Vanguard Taxable Account (8/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.29); SEC File Earnings Press Release
Currently Owned TRP C$25 Par Value Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: I will maintain a higher dollar allocation in these securities.
In Canadian Dollars/ Price as of Close on 10/23 |
250 shares of TRPPRD: AC at C$15.05
Last Reset Coupon: 5.945%
Current Yield at $15.05 AC = 9.88%
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 5.A. Added 50 TRPPRD:CA at C$14.9 (9/30/23 Post)
Lowest Price Paid: C$13, Item # 3.A. Bought 50 TRPPRD at C$13 (7/3/20 Post);
250 shares of TRPPRE: AC at C$14.47
Last Purchase Discussions: Item #5.A. Bought 100 TRPPRE at C$15 and 50 at C$11.12 (3/20/20 Post); Item # 2 Bought 100 TRPPRE at C$15.6 (9/29/20 Post)
Last Sold: Item # 2.A. Sold 100 TRPPRE at C$22.26 (5/23/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$467.5)
Last Reset Coupon (October 2024): 5.08% (annual at C$1.27 per share)
TC Energy provides conversion right and dividend rate notice for Series 9 and 10 preferred shares
New Yield at C$14.47 AC = 8.78%
My Video: Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks - YouTube
B. Eliminated DEI - Sold 30 at $18.82-Vanguard Account:
Quote: Douglas Emmett Inc. (DEI) -Office and Apartment REIT
Proceeds: $564.73
Properties as of 6/30/24:
I would characterize the properties as high quality.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$32.56
Last Discussed: Item # 7.C. Added to DEI Bought 10 at $16 (11/15/22 Post); Item # 6.M. Added to DEI- Bought 3 at $16.45 (11/1/22 Post); Item # 4.L. Added to DEI - Bought 2 at $17.66; 3 at $17.19; 2 at $16.48 (10/11/22 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share, slashed from $.28 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment.
DEI Stock Dividend History & Date
A number of factors caused this slash. The main reasons were this REIT's office exposure, high debt levels, and far too much variable rate debt when short term rates were increasing the costs.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filing
FFO per share: $.46
AFFO per share: $.368
C. Pared PDM - Sold 10 at $10.9 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A (PDM) - An Office REIT
Proceeds: $109
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Pared PDM in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $10.13 (10/3/24 Post)(loss snapshot of -$22.53). This pare reduced my average cost in my Schwab account to $9.10.
Loss Snapshot: -$18.36
New Average cost per share this account: $9.01 (100+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/17 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $9.34.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share ($.50 annually), slashed from $.21 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. While understandable, the slash is still a major negative.
Yield at New AC this account: 5.55%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/19/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in PDM - Sold 31 at $8.67 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.52); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and Supplemental
D. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $52.28 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Williams Cos. (WMB)
Proceeds: $261.3
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $267.84); Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $251.11)
Profit Snapshot: $141.2
New Average cost per share: $23.9 (70+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/18/24 after pare |
Even though I am selling part of my highest cost lot, I reduced the average cost per share by only 1 cent.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually), last raised from $.4475 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend History
Yield at $23.9: 7.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24 (owned 95+ as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed this report here: Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
WMB Realized Gains to Date: $1,151.2 (excludes realized gains in Roth IRA accounts)
E. Eliminated CZNC - Sold 10 at $19.77:
Quote: Citizens & Northern Corp. (CZNC)
Proceeds: $197.7
Profit Snapshot: +$28.8
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Restarted CZNC - Bought 10 at $16.89 (7/12/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share, last raised from $.27 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment. The dividend was at $.26 in 2014.
Dividend History: I rate the history as poor with only a 7.69% increase over the past 10 years. With that kind of dividend growth, I view this stock more as a bond substitute based on the current yield.
Next Ex Dividend: 10/27/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I had a negative reaction to this report. SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter.
E.P.S. = $.41, down from $.5
NIM: 3.29%, down from 3.35%.
Efficiency Ratio at 69%. I view this ratio as too high.
Non-performing loans to total loan (NPL): 1.29%, up from .92%. I view both numbers as too high in the current economy and the trend up is unfavorable as well.
ROE: 9.49%, down 12.28%. I view the 12.28% as average and the downtrend Y-O-Y as a negative.
"The amortized cost of available-for-sale debt securities decreased to $447,392,000 at September 30, 2024 from $453,944,000 at June 30, 2024 and $505,440,000 at September 30, 2023. The fair value of available-for-sale debt securities at September 30, 2024 was lower than the amortized cost basis by $38,970,000, or 8.7%. In comparison, the aggregate unrealized loss position was $52,799,000 (11.6%) at June 30, 2024 and $76,302,000 (15.1%) at September 30, 2023. The unrealized loss position of the portfolio has resulted from an increase in interest rates as compared to rates when the securities were purchased." (emphasis added)
As with other regional banks, there was a failure to adjust duration down in 2021 when inflation was running hot and low yielding securities could have been sold at a profit or small loss.
Largest CZNC Gains: Item # 1 Sold 100 CZNC at $16.53 (9/2/11 Post)(profit snapshot= $517.61); Item # 1.D. Eliminated CZNC - Sold 20 at $25.38 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $175.24)
Over the past two to three years, it has been far more difficult to realize a satisfactory return on regional bank stock purchases. The causes involve net interest margin compression, extremely poor interest rate risk management on owned securities, and the failure of several banks after deposit runs.
CZNC Realized Gains to Date: $1,107.82
F. Pared Duplicate Position in SBRA - Sold 2 at $18.71 - Fidelity Account:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Sabra Health Care REIT
Profit Snapshot: $7.77
New Average cost per share this account: $12.02 (49 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/21/24 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $12.13.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share, slashed from $.45 effective for the 2020 second quarter.
I have sold all shares purchased with dividends in this account and have turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at New AC = 9.98%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/19/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/20/24): I discussed this report here: Item # 4.H. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $16.6 (8/9/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
G. Pared Duplicate Position in ARCC - Sold 5 at $21.76 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Ares Capital Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $108.8
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (The risk factor summary starts at page 24 and ends at page 50)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Pared Duplicate Position in ARCC - Sold 1 at $21.1 (9/5/24 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added 5 ARCC at $14.3; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.67; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.4; 5 at $12; 5 at $11.74; 5 at $10.44; 5 at $9.4 (4/4/20 Post) I highlighted the high and low purchase prices to emphasize the risk when investors became concerned about the economy tanking. This was a fast and furious decline in response to the recession caused by the pandemic.
Profit Snapshot: $47.2
New Average cost per share this account: $10.5 (25 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/21/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $10.8.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
$.12 per share in special dividends were added in 2022
ARCC Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC: 18.29% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed this report here: Item # 2.D. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Account - Sold 4 at $20.95 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.88); SEC Filed Press Release
Other Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Pared ARCC - Sold 2 at $20.36 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.04); Item # 2.I. Pared ARCC in Schwab Account - Sold 4 at $20.72 (5/12/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.94); Item # 1.D. Eliminated ARCC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $22.16 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.53); Item # 1.M. Sold 1 ARCC at $21.61- Fidelity Account (10/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.1); Item # 1.J. Sold 1 ARCC at $19.27 (4/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.84); Item # 3.C. Pared ARCC in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 20 at $17,44 and Item #3.D. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $17.32 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $39.52: post contains in Item # 3.D. prior profit snapshots including those that were not discussed); Item # 1.C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98 (6/18/18 Post)(profit snapshot $63.24); Item 2.A. Eliminated ARCC-Sold Remaining 50 Shares at $17.25 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $160.51; contains snapshot of 100 share in RI in 2016, profit snapshot of $105.57); Item # 1, Sold 102+ ARCC at $15.32 and 50 at $15.26: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 8/21/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot =$62.72); Item # 1 Sold 100 ARCC at $17.195 (4/28/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $116.36); Item # 3 Sold 100 ARCC Roth IRA at $17.05 (2/25/15 Post)(profit snapshot $19.97); Item # 2. Sold 100 ARCC at $17.54-IRAs in Two 50 Share Lots (9/13/12 Post)(profit snapshots = $53.19)
Goal: As with all BDC stocks, the goal is simply to earn a return in excess of the dividends paid.
ARCC Realized Gains to Date: $973.26
6 of the 4.25% SU Maturing on 3/1/25: Bond Page | FINRA.org {Last Purchase: Item # 3.B. Bought 2 ARES 4.25% SU Maturing on 3/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.544 (3/15/24 Post)}
4 of the 3.25% SU Maturing on 7/15/25: Bond Page | FINRA.org {Last Purchase: Item # 4.B. Bought 2 Ares 3.25% SU Maturing on 7/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.128 (6/20/24 Post)}
I received the proceeds of 2 ARCC SU bonds that matured on 6/10/24.
H. Pared Duplicate Position in CTO - Sold 5 at $19.36 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) - Externally Managed REIT
Proceeds: $96.8
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CTO - Bought 5 in Schwab Account at $17.13 (5/10/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$6.11
New Average cost per share in this account: $16.76 (30 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/21/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ($1.52 annually)
There was a 3 for 1 stock split in 2022. The dividend payment history is not adjusted for that split at the Nasdaq website. CTO Realty Growth Announces Three-For-One Stock Split
Yield at New AC = 9.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/12/24
Last Financial Report (Q/E 6/30/24): I discussed this report here: Item # 1.B. Sold 10 CTO at $19.34 and Item # 1.C. Eliminated CTO Position in Vanguard Account - Sold 25 at $19.98 (8/2/24 Post)(profit snapshots $14.95); SEC Filed Press Release; SEC Filed Supplemental
CTO is scheduled to report its third quarter results after the close today. I will discuss that report in a comment.
4. REIT Equity Preferred Stock:
Both of the preferred stocks are issued by REITs who have eliminated their common share dividends.
I view these preferred stocks as high risk.
Both issuers have significant office exposure.
Both are continuing to pay their preferred stock dividends.
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
A. Pared HPPPRC - Sold 15 at $15.27:
Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred Series C
Proceeds: $229.05
I sold the highest cost 15 shares at a small loss.
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Eliminated Duplicate Positions in HPPPRC - Sold 25 at $14.27 and 40 at $14.22 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = +$155.87)
After that post, I restarted a small ball position in my Schwab account, buing 15 shares, after selling 40+ shares at $14.22.
15 Shares/Average cost: $11.98/Yield at 9.91% |
Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (HPP)
SEC Filed Financial Report for the Q/E 6/30/24 and Supplemental
Lost Snapshot: -$21.4
New Average cost per share: $12.36
Snapshot Intraday on 10/16/24 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $12.83.
Yield at New AC = 9.61%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/24 (owned all as of)
HPPPRC Prospectus
Par Value: $25 (offered at $25 in November 2021)
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock.
Maturity: Potentially perpetual unless called by issuer.
Optional Call Date: Anytime on or after 11/16/26. Given the low coupon and financial difficulties, I would not expect a call in my lifetime.
Stopper Clause: Standard. The Stopper Clause prevents the issuer from deferring payment of a cumulative preferred dividend while paying a cash common stock dividend or using cash to buy back common stock. The Clause enforces the preferred stock's superior claim to cash compared only to the common stock. Since HPP has eliminated its common share cash dividend, there is no legal impediment to deferring the preferred dividend payment except using cash to buy back common stock.
As previously discussed, recent operating performance was negatively impacted by the write and actor strikes since HPP owns studio production facilities. Hudson Pacific Says Hollywood Strikes Have Cost It $100M-Commercial Observer Redefining Studios in Los Angeles A teamsters strike was a negative as well. The company also has exposure to west coast office properties. Office Properties
The long term problems are (1) the office properties located in the San Francisco and Los Angeles metropolitan areas where property valuations have generally taken major hits, (2) substantial space leased to technology companies that are reducing their needs for office space through work-from-home and reductions in their workforces; (3) HPP has eliminated its common stock cash dividend creating a legal pathway for a preferred dividend deferral; and (4) too much debt either at variable rate or at fixed coupons that will likely have to be refinanced at higher rates in the coming years (see p.12 SEC Supplemental for the Q/E 6/30/24)
Risk will be mitigated some when the production studios return to normal operations.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.A. Added 25 HPPPRC at $12.5 (12/16/23 Post); Item # 5.A. Added 5 HPPPRC at $11.2; 5 at $11.73 (11/18/23 Post)
Other Sell Discussion: Item # 5.B. Pared HPPPRC Sold 10 at $14.02 (1/6/24 Post)
Net Realized Gain to Date HPPPRC: +$136.47
B. Pared Duplicate Position in VNOPRM - Sold 5 at $18.33 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Vornado Realty Trust 5.25% Cumulative Preferred Series M -Primarily an Office REIT with Some Retail (see, SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 6/30/24 at pages 35-43)
Proceeds: $91.65
Issuer: Vornado Realty Trust
SEC Filed 2024 Second Quarter Report
Last Discussed: Item # 6.B. Sold Highest Cost 5 VNOPRM Shares at $17.99 - Fidelity Account (9/19/24)(profit snapshot = $7.45)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Added to VNOPRM - Bought 10 at $14.15 (8/12/23 Post); Item # 2.E. Added 5 VNOPRM at $11.25 (5/27/23 Post)
Loss Snapshot: -$24.3
New Average cost per share: $14.56 (30 shares)
Remaining Shares this account:
Snapshot as of close on 10/17 after pare |
Yield at New AC = 9.01%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24 (owned all as of)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.25%
Dividends: Paid quarterly, non-qualified, and cumulative
Stopper Clause: Standard
VNO suspended the payment of its common share cash dividend after the 2023 4th quarter payment. VNO Dividend History | Nasdaq I subsequently eliminated my common share position. VNO has continued to pay dividends on its cumulative preferred stocks.
Until that dividend is resumed, the Stopper Clause becomes a legal impediment to a preferred stock dividend deferral only when the company uses cash to purchase common stock.
Position in Schwab Account: I also own 35 shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share at $15.79. Ten of those shares are in negative territory.
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Sold 10 VNO.PRM at $25.34 (10/31/2020 Post); Item # 3.C. Sold 5 VNO.PRM at $24.99-Highest Cost lot bought at $19 (7/18/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Eliminated VNO.PRM-Sold 50 at $22.95 (5/23/19 Post)
Realized VNOPRM Gain: Net of $137.99
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends.
5. Treasury Bill Auction Purchases:
When held to maturity, the interest paid by all of the following T Bill purchases will be taxable in 2025.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/21/24 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 1/23/25
Interest: $57
Investment Rate: 4.625%
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/21/24 Auction - 2 Accounts:
182 Days
Matures on 4/25/25
Interest: $108.95
Investment Rate: 4.467%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/23 Auction:
119 Day Bills:
Matures on 2/25/25
Interest: $73.47
Investment Rate: 4.574%
6. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Rutherford County 3% GO Bonds Maturing on 4/1/2031 at a Total Cost of 98.55:
Emma Page
Credit Ratings: Aaa/AA+
Interest: Paid semiannually and federally tax free
Issuer Optional Call: At par value + accrued an unpaid interest on or after 4/1/2026.
YTM at Total Cost: 3.251%
Current TF Yield at TC = 3.044%
Rutherford County is part of the greater Nashville metropolitan statistical area. Rutherford County, Tennessee - Wikipedia
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I mentioned that I had decided to redeem all of my IBonds purchased in 2022 that had a zero fixed rate. I went ahead and redeemed the ones bought in 2021 that had a zero fixed rate as well. I was only receiving the CPI inflation rate as a coupon on those IBonds.
ReplyDeleteThe CPI coupon for the six months ending on 10/31/24 is 1.48% or 2.96% annualized.
https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
The five year TIP auctioned yesterday had a real yield of 1.67% consisting of a 1.625% coupon and a purchase price at a slight discount to par value.
In Item # 4.H. of this post, I mentioned that the REIT CTO was about to report third quarter results, and that I would discuss the report in a comment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23795/000155837024013624/cto-20241024xex99d1.htm
AFFO per share of $.51 up from $.48 in the Q/E 9/30/23.
For 2024, the company raised core FFO guidance slightly to $1.83-$1.87 from $1.81-$1.86. AFFO per share guidance was increased to $1.96-$2.
CTO raised net proceeds of $125.7 million under the Company’s common stock ATM offering program during the quarter, which is a lot given the small size of this REIT.
"Investments totaled $191.3 million, including property acquisitions and structured investments, at a weighted average yield of 9.5%."
As previously discussed, in addition to owning real estate, CTO is the external manager for another REIT Alpine (PINE).
The reaction so far is slightly negative:
CTO Realty Growth Inc.
$19.58 -$0.14 -0.71%
Volume: 40.61K
Last Updated: Oct 25, 2024 at 9:59 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cto?mod=search_symbol
CTO is an externally managed REIT.
U.S. 1 Year Treasury Bill
ReplyDelete4.304% +0.004%
Last Updated: Oct 28, 2024 10:54 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx
THE 1 year T Bill is auctioned monthly. The next auction is tomorrow, 10-29. I entered an order to buy 2. I will not be buying the 4 month T Bill this week but have orders to buy 7 of the 91 day and 3 of the 182 that are being auctioned today. I am currently light in my October 2025 maturies.
The 1 year treasury bill was auctioned today at a 4.291% investment rate.
ReplyDeleteThe ten year treasury yield is currently up 4 basis points to a 4.326% yield. The yield was near 3.62% in mid-September 2024.
The breakeven inflation rate for the 10 year TIP has been moving higher, closing yesterday at 2.31%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE
Reading the tea leaves, investors are becoming slightly more concerned about the inflationary pressures that may build up next year. I do view Trump's tariff proposals, mass deportations and tax policies as inflationary.
There is nothing that I can do about who will be elected President other than what I have already done, which was to vote, donate a fair amount of money to candidates and speak out in this blog and in my YouTube videos.
If Trump wins, which is certainly possible, and starts to actually do what he says, and he must do so to maintain his credibility with those who elected him for a second term, my only recourse will be to react with my portfolio reallocations that would involve shortening my bond durations.
The CME FedWatch tool currently has the odds at 96.2% that the FED will cut the FF rate by 25 basis points on 11/7/24.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Thanks for what you've done. It's stressful waiting to find out.
DeleteGood to know the date is 11/7
The last rally all about Nazis should cook him. But alas. There's a movement for depolarization. So there's a cultural backlash to the chaos & division that Trump focuses on.
I published a YouTube video discussing today's economic reports:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aD_LHWIJD8&t=126s
The economy continues to be in a growth mode. The PCE price index for the third quarter was reported at a 1.5% increase with the core up 2.2%. I did neglected to mention those numbers in the video.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate
It's so near 2%. I suppose the increase was enough to cause worries of increased rates or lack of cuts.
DeleteEven soft landings will be bumpy on the tarmac!
Land: There is no way to know what is causing the recent spike higher this month in the 2 to 30 year treasury maturities. The current PCE price index numbers are not the cause.
DeleteWhile the 10 year TIP breakeven inflation rate has risen some over the past month or so, the bounce is small and within normal trading ranges, closing today at 2.34%, down some when I last posted the number in this post.
Possibly, investors are starting to price in a Trump victory. His proposals would IMO reignite inflation that is now tame.
His tariff increase proposals, tax cuts, and massive deportations are all inflationary. But it is too early to draw a conclusion about the cause. If he wins and rates continue to tick higher, then that would indicate that inflation concerns were causing the significant percentage move higher in the 2 to 30 year maturity spectrum. The Fed is keeping the short term bills anchored to the current FF range, with the 3 and 6 month bills telegraphing only 1 cut of .25% on 11/7. That is also the prediction of the FF futures contracts as used by the CME FedWatch tool.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
I do not see any reason for that cut based on the economic data.
There's a free seeking alpha article about using ETF SCHD as a bond substitute. Caught my attention for cash for a few years out. Particularly during bulls. I'm too sleepy to write about it so I'm place marking to remember to ask.
ReplyDeletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4728999-dont-be-broke-in-your-70s-the-simple-path-to-wealth-with-schd#comments
Land: SCHD is one of the ETF alternatives for exposure to dividend paying stocks. The expense ratio is low at .06%. Morningstar has a 4 star rating. I have owned it in the past. Earlier this month, Schwab had stock splits for a number of its sponsored ETFs including SCHD which split 3 for 1.
DeleteMy last trade was in 2021. There is a fair amount of duplication in what I individually own. I will generally own 8 to 12 of the top 25 holdings.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/schd/portfolio
I have bought it and kept this ETF in a family members account.
SCHD is up slightly today. At least on a temporary basis, the stocks owned by that fund may benefit from large investors pulling out of some of the high multiple names. Both MSFT and META are down today in response to their earnings reports.
Thanks! Interesting when the market starts showing something, but the cause it's obvious yet.
ReplyDeleteAlso notable: When trump won in 2016 there was a big rally starting in the middle of the night in futures.
ReplyDeleteNow the idea of trump seems to trigger pullbacks. My plan if he won was to jump on the initial rally.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/10/colb-dcomp-gct-gpc-gvlu-hiw-hrzn-jhg.html