Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $13,000 in principal amount
I am still about 1 week behind in discussing my corporate bond purchases.
Common Stock Buys: $917.68
Common Stock Sells: $736.75
Inflow Common Stocks: $180.93
My stock trading activity is meaningless.
Inflow Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds (EMP/ELC): $302.36
Treasury Yield Curve June 2025:
Treasury Real Yield Curve June 2025:
5 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.36% (Subtract the real yield of 1.62% from non-inflation protected yield of 3.98%)
10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.31%
CME FedWatch - CME Group The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut on or before the September meeting rate is currently near 64% with no rate cut at 36%.
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The FED left interest rates unchanged at his meeting on 6/18 as expected. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Fed meeting: Here's what changed in the new statement
The DOT Plot still has a majority of FED members forecasting two 25 basis points cuts before year end. 7 out of 19 forecast that the current FF range of 4.25% - 4.5% will remain unchanged while 2 believe the rate will be only 25 basis points below the current level.
Projections: Inflation predictions for 2025-2026 were raised for both PCE and Core PCE inflation.
The Fed - June 18, 2025: FOMC Projections materials
Trump response: "So we have a stupid person. Frankly, you probably won’t cut today Europe had 10 cuts, and we had none. And I guess he’s a political guy, I don’t know. He’s a political guy who’s not a smart person, but he’s costing the country a fortune." Trump believes the FF rate should be 2.25% to 2.5%. Trump says 'stupid' Powell 'probably won't cut' rates Wednesday
Trump officials lift short-lived pause on ICE arrests at farms, hotels and restaurants - CBS News Trump had an exception for immigrants working at those jobs for less than week before reversing himself. Substantial deportations of undocumented farm workers will likely result in food shortages and raise grocery prices. Many of the non-citizens have temporary visas under the H-2A Visa Program. H-2A Visa Program For Temporary Workers | Farmers.gov
Retail sales declined by .9% in May compared to April. Excluding autos, retail sales declined by .3%. This was the largest monthly decline since May 2023. The March to April total retail sales number was revised from +.1% to -.1%. Importantly, restaurant sales declined .9%, the largest drop in over two years, and one signal that consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending. Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report, discussed at Retail sales May 2025 - CNBC Real inflation adjusted retail sales were up .9% for the year ending in May.
New auto sales are likely to be restrained starting last April due to consumers buying new vehicles before Trump imposed tariffs and the likely price increases in new autos resulting from the existing tariffs.
Industrial production declined .2% in May. Federal Reserve Board - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17 The manufacturing output part of industrial production was up .1% "driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts."
The Empire State manufacturing index declined to -16% in June from -9% in May.
JetBlue to cut more flights, other costs as break-even 2025 'unlikely' due to lower travel demand
More builders slash prices as home buyers stay away from the housing market - MarketWatch (subscription publication); Homebuilder sentiment June 2025 nears pandemic low - CNBC (6/17/25) The pandemic low was at 30 in April 2020.
The Federal Reserve reported that household net worth declined by $1.595 trillion in the first quarter. Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 Household debt increased at a 1.9% annualized rate.
Trump administration tells 500,000 immigrants to 'self-deport' The immigrants are from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela and had temporary protection under Biden's CHNV program that Trump revoked. While those immigrants are not U.S. citizens, and the Supreme Court has greenlighted their deportation, they are U.S. consumers who add to GDP through personal consumption expenditures and pay sales taxes on purchases.
Investors see stagflation ahead but slow interest rate cuts, CNBC Fed survey finds
Social Security Administration releases new trust fund depletion dates The new depletion date is 2033 when there would be automatic cuts in benefits without new funding sources. At that time, about 73% of the benefits would be payable. The House passed bill does not exempt social security benefits from taxation but increases the deduction for those over 65 by $4,000 per taxpayer which is phased out "at a 4% rate for single taxpayers earning more than $75,000 and married taxpayers earning more than $150,000." The 2025 Tax Bill: Additional $4,000 Deduction for Seniors, Simplified | Bipartisan Policy Center The Senate version has a $6,000 deduction and a 6% phase out. Senate version of 'big beautiful' bill calls for $6,000 senior 'bonus' Those deductions would not benefit low income seniors who do not pay federal income taxes.
The Medicare Part B fund will be able to pay full benefits until about 2033 when the amount will have to be reduced to 89% without additional funding sources. Treasury Releases Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports | U.S. Department of the Treasury
Senate looks to cut $1 trillion from Medicaid. Here’s who would be hurt most. - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
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Minnesota Rep. Hortman (D) and husband killed, Sen. Hoffman (D) and wife wounded in politically motivated shootings - CBS News The arrested suspect Vance Boelter, a Trump supporter and an "evangelical Christian" who was vehemently opposed to abortions, had a hit list with 70 names on it including other Minnesota Democrats. His list included Governor Walz, Ilhan Omar, Minnesota's two US senators, Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and state Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison. "Strong supporter" of Trump charged with politically motivated Minnesota killings | Salon.com
Boelter was part of the charismatic Christian movement "whose leaders speak of spiritual warfare, an army of God, and demon-possessed politicians, and which has already proved, during the January 6 insurrection, its ability to mobilize followers to act." The Minnesota Suspect’s Radical Spiritual World - The Atlantic (subscription publication). "Charismatic Christians" include those who believe that Donald was chosen by God to lead America and that democrats are possessed by Satanic forces, as noted in that Atlantic article.
Donald Trump won't call 'Wacked out' Tim Walz after Minnesota shootings - The Hill
Senator Mike Lee (R) of Utah and Elon Musk blamed "Marxists" and the "far left" respectively for the 2 murders and attempted murders, ignoring of course information about the shooter and his targets. Mike Lee Flies off Rails About Minnesota Assassin | The New Republic Both individuals lack basic human empathy IMO.
'Innocent bystander' shot dead by 'peacekeepers' during 'No Kings' protest in Salt Lake City
There has been considerable reporting on how Trumpsters are using AI to create false information and narratives. In several examples which I have reviewed, it would be easy for an informed person to identify the information as false and the AI video as fake, but the AI generated fake video will nonetheless receive hundreds of thousand or over a million views and will be referenced in other media outlets. {One recent example is how Trumpsters are spreading false information about the immigration protests in Los Angeles: The L.A. Distortion Effect - The Atlantic; Fake videos and conspiracies fuel falsehoods about Los Angeles protests - CBS News; AI Chatbots Are Making LA Protest Disinformation Worse | WIRED; AI Is Spreading—and Countering—L.A. Protest Misinformation | TIME}
Senator Alex Padilla (D) handcuffed at DHS press conference and Thrown to the Ground : Full video He wanted to ask the Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem a question and was immediately forcibly removed. Senator Padilla clearly and loudly identified himself by name as well as his position as a U.S. Senator. Noem then went on Fox news and claimed that Padilla did not identify himself, which he plainly did on tape, and also falsely claimed that the Senator lunged at her. Her interviewer was one of the Fox "news blondes", who had access to the tape contradicting Noem's false narrative, but only smiled in response to Noem's demonstrably false statements. ‘Some of the grossest behavior I’ve ever seen’: Sarah Longwell on Krisiti Noem’s cosplay and antics - YouTube Padilla's staff member were told by Noem's security detail to stop recording the incident. In Trump's America, it is important to prevent videos that contradicts the false information and narratives advanced by Trump acolytes. Nicolle Wallace calls out Kristi Noem’s lie over Sen. Alex Padilla’s handcuffing and forced removal - YouTube
One of the more reliably disgusting people in Trump's government is the Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin who also claimed Senator Padilla did not identify himself and lunged at Noem. ABC News
Several of the more extraordinary features of Trumpism include no shame in frequent lying and the deliberate creation of false information to mislead, the pervasive refusal to apologize when caught lying, lying even when video evidence proves that the statements are lies, and never admitting that a statement was false or incorrect even if the number of demonstrably false statements need to be measured in the tens of thousands. It is a pure Orwellian self-contained alternate reality for those who are permanent residents. In Trump's America, all of the above are "conservative" values.
Trump’s Sickening Fort Bragg Speech (w/ Mark Hertling) - YouTube Hertling is a retired Army Lt. General (3 stars)
Trump Bashes Allies, Defends Putin at G7 Summit - YouTube
President Trump’s First 100 Days: Attacks on Human Rights, Cruelty and Chaos - Amnesty International
Trump, more than any other politician in modern U.S. history, has engaged in a constant stream of incendiary rhetoric that serves no purpose other than to inflame his supporters.
Yet, Trump made this statement in his inauguration speech last January: "My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier." Trump vowed to make the world safer - BBC (6/12/25)
Much of Trump's rhetoric has fascist origins as I discussed in a YT video: Trump's Fascist Rhetoric - YouTube The same or similar rhetoric was used by Goebbels, Hitler and Stalin. There are thousands of examples. The subject is discussed by Anne Applebaum, who has written several books on authoritarian leaders, in this article: Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini - The Atlantic; Trump speaks like Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, says Pulitzer prize-winning historian - YouTube
1. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Ares Capital 5.8% SU Maturing on 3/6/32 at a Total Cost of 98.423:
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Issuer: Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) - Externally Managed BDC
I have small ball positions in the common scattered over two taxable accounts and RI accounts.
Last ARCC Discussion: Item # 3.C. Pared ARCC Again in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $23.42 (1/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.41) That pare reduced my average cost per share in that account to $9.57)
ARCC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Bond Prospectus Offered at 98.973 in January 2025.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at TC: 6.084%
Current Yield at TC: 5.893%
Normally I avoid owning BDC debt that matures in more than 3 years from the date of purchase. I am making an exception for ARCC based on the quality of the external management company. Another reason is that I have 8 ARCC SU bonds about to mature, and this bond was the most attractively priced for the longer term ones maturing within 10 years.
I currently own the following ARCC SU bonds about to mature:
4 of the 3.25% Maturing on 7/15/25
4 of the 3.875% Maturing on 1/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
Last Bond Offering (5/25): Prospectus for $750M of 5.5% SU maturing in 2030.
B. Bought 2 Prologis LP 5% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at a Total Cost of 98.56:
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Issuer: Operating entity of Prologis Inc. (PLD) who does not guarantee the notes. It is better to have the guarantee but almost all assets are owned by the LP. PLD owns 97%+ of the common general partnership interest in the LP and is the sole general partner. As a practical matter, PLD can not allow the LP to miss interest payments.
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Debt is discussed starting at page 15.
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| Page 30, 10-Q |
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.206%
Current Yield at TC: 5.073%
Last Bond Offering (5/25): Prospectus
C. Bought 2 Eversource 5.125% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/15/33 at a Total Cost of 98.324:
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Issuer: Eversource Energy (ES) - Utility Holding Company
The wholly owned regulated utility subsidiaries are The Connecticut Light and Power Company ("CL&P), NSAR Electric, Public Service Company of New Hampshire ("PSNH"), Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts, Yankee Gas Company and a water utility called Aquarion. Both CL&P and PSNH issue first mortgage bonds.
ES Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my small ball common stock position.
ES SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25 (net income of $550.8M)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.387%
Current Yield at TC: 5.212%
I own 2 ES SU bonds that mature on 1/15/26. Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Eversource 3.35% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.3 (1/15/25 Post)
I owned 6 ES SU bonds that matured on 1/15/25:
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D. Bought 1 Prudential 5.2% SU Maturing on 3/14/35 at a Total Cost of 99.547:
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Issuer: Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU)
PRU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my small ball common stock position. Item # 2.B. Eliminated PRU-Sold 5 at $107.88 on Ex Dividend Date - Vanguard Account (2/23/24 Post)(Profit Snapshot = $223.42).
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.259%
Current Yield at TC: 5.224%
E. Bought 1 Dominion South Carolina 5.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 3/1/35 at a Total Cost of 99.204:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Dominion Energy Inc. (D). This FM bond was originally issued by the South Carolina Electric & Gas Company in 2005 that was then owned by the utility holding company SCANA which was later acquired by Dominion Energy. The operating utility was then renamed Dominion Energy South Carolina.
While SCE&G is not a publicly traded company, it does separately file reports with the SEC,
Prospectus (3/2005)
Quarterly Results for Q/E 3/31/25:
Dominion Energy South Carolina 10-Q at page 7
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report Dominion Energy South Carolina is a wholly owned subsidiary of SCANA which is wholly owned by Dominion Energy, page 6.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.355%
Current Yield at TC: 5.292%
Last Bond Offering (1/25): Prospectus (offered at 99.822)
F. Bought 2 Ferguson Enterprises 5% SU Maturing on 10/3/34 at a Total Cost of 97.434:
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Issuer: Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG)
FERG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Ferguson is a nationwide supplier of HVAC, appliance, bathroom, lighting and plumbing products. All Products | Ferguson
 |
| Page 3, 10-Q |
Cash & Cash Equivalents as of 3/31/25: $519M
Long term debt at 3.701B
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.353%
Current Yield at TC: 5.132%
G. Bought 1 Boston Properties LP 4.5% SU Maturing on 12/1/28 at a Total Cost of 99.012:
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Issue: Operating entity for BXP Inc. (BXP), formerly known as Boston Properties, Inc., who does not guarantee the notes.
SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.812%
Current yield at TC: 4.545%
I now own 2 bonds and will not be buying more.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus for 5.7% SU notes maturing in 2035
Other Own Boston Properties LP SU Bonds:
1 Maturing on 2/1/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Maturing on 10/1/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
I had 4 mature on 1/15/25:
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H. Bought 2 Affiliated Managers 5.5% SU Maturing on 8/20/34 at a Total Cost of 99.18:
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Issuer: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)
AMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.614%
Current Yield at TC: 5.546%
I own 4 Affiliated Managers SU bonds that mature on 8/1/25 that were bought in 2 bond lots last in November 2023 and September 2024.
AMG has several exchange traded junior bonds that I have never owned. The terms of those bonds are described at pages 14-15, 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25. There are several reasons why I avoid those bonds including the maturities ranging from March 2059 to March 2064, the relatively low coupons for junior bonds, the asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of AMG, and AMG's option to defer interest payments provided no dividend is paid on junior securities meaning common stock in this case. The 2064 subordinated bonds were sold in March 2024. Prospectus; Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 6.75% Junior Notes due 2064 (MGRE). AMG can defer interest payments for up to 20 consecutive quarters provided no cash distribution is made on junior securities (stopper clause), but the deferred interest payments do earn interest at the coupon rate, a provision frequently found in junior bond prospectuses.
2. Small Ball Stock Buys:
All stock purchases were made in my Schwab Account.
I am buying a few shares in packaged food and other companies whose stocks are in a bear market pattern. That is one aspect of my contrarian value style of investing. In each case, I view the shares as reasonably priced, possibly a minority opinion based on the continuing price declines, when the purchases are made based on available information. However, since I am catching a falling knife, my purchases will be small with frequent small lot adds to lower my average cost per share.
A. Bought 1 CLX at $126.87; 1 at $124.04; 1 at $121.5:
Quote: Clorox Co.
Cost: $372.41
52 week price range as of 6/18: $121 - $171.37
About 80% of sales are generated by brands that have 1 or 2 market share positions.
CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
The company has a joint venture agreement with Procter & Gamble for the Glad trash bags and wraps businesses. The JV will expire in January 2026, whereupon Clorox will be required to purchase Procter's 20% interest in those products as more fully explained at page 7 of the last 10-Q:
Website: Glad® Kitchen Trash Bag Sizes | Glad®
The company experienced a disruptive cyber attack in 2023 but appears to have recovered from it with operations back to normal. The Clorox Co. Recovers from Severe Cyberattack | IndustryWeek (10/5/23) The company received $100M in insurance proceeds. "During the three and nine months ended Mar. 31, 2025, the company recognized approximately $35 ($26 after tax) and $70 ($53 after tax), respectively, of insurance recoveries related to the cyberattack. During the three and nine months ended Mar. 31, 2024, the company incurred approximately $8 ($6 after tax) and $57 ($43 after tax), respectively, of costs related to the cyberattack. Costs related primarily to third-party consulting services, including IT recovery and forensic experts and other professional services incurred to investigate and remediate the attack, as well as incremental operating costs from the resulting disruption to the company's business operations."
In its unfortunate foray into the vitamin business, the company recognized a significant impairment charge in 2021 and a $.94 per share loss when this business was sold. Clorox Completes Previously Announced Divestiture of its Better Health VMS Business (9/10/24)
10 year Chart: Major Bear Market of unknowable duration since 2020
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| Weekly Prices to 5/27/25 |
The price spike in 2020 was caused by the surge in disinfectant product sales resulting from the pandemic. That parabolic price surge collapsed with the price retreating to its pre-pandemic level by early 2022. Since then, the stock has been moving in a whipsaw channel trade mostly in the 125 to 165 price range.
Average cost per share: $124.14 (3 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.22 per share ($4.88 annually)
CLX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
CLX has raised its dividend for 20 consecutive years.
Yield at AC: 3.93%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/23/25
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Eliminated CLX - Sold 4+ at $167.87 (5/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.74). The only favorable comment that I can make about a $4.74 profit is that is better than still owning those 4+ shares.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
This is for the third fiscal quarter.
Net sales decreased 8% primarily due to the divestiture of the vitamins and Argentina businesses.
Organic sales decreased 2%
GAAP E.P.S. $1.5
Adjusted E.P.S. $1.45, down from $1.71
Free Cash Flow: $542M
For the F/Y ending 6/30/25, the company guided adjusted E.P.S. to $6.95-$7.35 and organic sales growth of 4%-5%.
Analyst Reports Available to Schwab Customers:
S&P (5/6/25): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $148B. Restarted KRG - Bought 5 at $22.5; 5 at $22.25:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Cost: $223.75
52 week price range: $18.52 - $28.24
KRG "is a publicly held REIT that, through its majority-owned subsidiary, Kite Realty Group, L.P., owns interests in various operating subsidiaries and joint ventures engaged in the ownership, operation, acquisition, development, and redevelopment of high-quality, open-air, grocery-anchored shopping centers and vibrant mixed-use assets that are primarily located in high-growth Sun Belt markets and select strategic gateway markets in the United States. We derive our revenue primarily from the collection of contractual rents and reimbursement payments from tenants under existing lease agreements at each of our properties. As of 3/31/25, the operating LP owned interests in 180 retail properties with approximately 27.8M square feet. 10-Q at page 29.
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Debt is discussed starting at page 19.
Top 25 Tenants as of 3/31/25:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51 (10/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.8); Item # 2.B. Sold 5 KRG at $26.84 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.8)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 KRG at $20.59 (3/22/24 Post); Item # 1.H. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $20.9 (3/1/24 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $21.25 (1/26/24 Post); Item # 2.F. Started KRG - Bought 5 at $22.49; 5 at $22.1 (1/6/24 Post) So I am restarting a position near where I first bought shares.
Average cost per share: $22.38 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually), last raised from $.26 effective for the 2025 1st quarter payment.
KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The dividend was slashed from $.3175 to $.052 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. This was in response to the pandemic. Still, I view the slash and the failure to return to the pre-slash dividend as major negatives. I prefer owning the KRG bonds. The interest payment on senior unsecured debt can not be cut.
Yield at AC = 4.826%
Next Ex Dividend: 7/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter.
Revenue: $221.762M, $207.429M
Using diluted shares
GAAP E.P.S. = $.11, up from $.06
FFO per share: $.55, up from $.50
Core FFO per share: $.53
Reconciliation:
C. Added to CPB - Bought 2 at $32.64; 3 at $32:
Quote: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
Cost: $161.27
52 week price range as of 6/18: $31.58 - $52.81
Chart: Major Bear Market Trend
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Recent Major Acquisition: Campbell Completes Acquisition of Sovos Brands, Inc.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Added to CPB - Bought 1 at $34.39, 1 at $33.83, 1 at $33.19 (5/30/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $36.46 (33 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share ($1.56 annually)
CPB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment as one means to average down.
Yield at New AC: 4.279%
Next Ex Dividend: 7/3/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 4/27/25):
This report is for the third fiscal quarter.
Revenue: $2.475B (increased 1% on an organic basis)
GAAP E.P.S. = $.23
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.73, down from $.75
Reconciliation:
2025 Fiscal Year Adjusted E.P.S. Guidance: $2.95 - $3.05, down from $3.08
Investors are more focused negative E.P.S. growth than the relatively low P/E based on this guidance IMO. I view the current stock price as a reflection on major investors having no faith in management's ability to increase earnings even at a low single digit level
CPB Realized Gains to date: $919.04
Largest Gain: Most of the gain was realized in 2010 when I sold shares at a higher price than my last purchase discussed here. Item # 3 Sold 70 CPB at $35.79 (9/8/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $718.94). There have been no stock splits since I sold that lot.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Eliminated CPB - Sold 5 at $49.86 (5/19/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.29) Item 3.B. Sold 5 CPB at $41.07 (8/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot $38.97); Item # 3 Sold 50 CPB at $41 (8/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.18); Item # 3 Sold 50+ CPB at $49.73+(11/20/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.21)
I do not view CPB as a long term hold, as proven so far by a long term chart and meagre dividend growth over the past ten years. Note that I sold 50+ shares in 2017 at $49.73 and 5 at $49.86 in 2022.
Maximum Position: 50 shares, increased from 30 based on the decline in price.
Purchase Restriction: 1 to 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Consider to Sell: >$45
Owned CPB SU bond: 2 of the 4.15% SU maturing on 3/15/28. Bond Page | FINRA.org; Item # 2.A. (3/18/25 Post)
D. Added to FLO - Bought 5 at $16.05:
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO)
Cost: $80.25
52 week price range as of 6/18/25: $15.74 - $23.87
Website: Home - Flowers Foods
Brands include Nature's Own, Simple Mills, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder Bread, Sunbeam Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, and TastyKake.
FLO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report for the F/Y ending on 12/28/24
Chart: Major Bear Market Trend
Simple Mills Acquisition: The most recent price decline coincided with FLO's purchase of Simple Mills. Flowers Foods Completes Acquisition of Simple Mills (2/21/25); SimpleMills Products
To pay for this acquisition, FLO sold $500M in 5.7% SU notes maturing in 2035 and $300M of 6.2% SU notes maturing in 2055. Prospectus The total consideration was $848.537M, page 13 10-Q.
IMO, the current share price and the price decline suggest that investors believe this acquisition was not worth the cost.
The last earnings report fed into that concern with the company raising the 2025 F/Y loss estimate for this acquisition to ($.08) to ($.07) in adjusted E.P.S. compared to the prior guidance of ($.07) to ($.04). The current fiscal year ends in December.
The Simple acquisition resulted in a net loss of $4.2M or ($.02) to E.P.S. in the fiscal first quarter, inclusive of the increased interest expense and amortization of acquired intangible assets.
Average cost per share: $17.8 (40 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2475 per share ($.99 annually), last raised from $.24 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. I recently changed my dividend option to reinvestment as another means to average down.
FLO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Rather than raising the dividend, which the Board just did, the more prudent course IMO would be to slash it to $.12 per quarter and to use the cash to pay down debt.
Yield at New AC: 5.56%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/5/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 4/19/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.H Added to FLO - Bought 5 at $16.9; 5 at $16.5 (5/16/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.C. Eliminated FLO -Sold 20 at $28.3 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.76)
I suspect that the share price will at best stabilize until there is evidence that the Simple Mills acquisition was worth the price. Then, the rally higher will depend on how investors view the likely incremental benefit to earnings.
Forecasting quotes about investing
E. Added to PFS - Bought 5 at $16:
Quote: Provident Financial Services Inc. (PFS)
Cost: $80
52 week price range: $13.07 - $22.04
PFS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PFS SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
New Average cost per share: $16.35 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
PFS Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
In the 2015 second quarter, the rate was at $.16.
Yield at New AC per share: 5.87%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/25
Last Elimination: Item # 4. Sold 50 PFS at $14.88 (3/4/2011 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.08)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 2.D. Restarted PFS - Bought 10 at $16.52 (6/12/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 10 at the 6/16/25 Auction:
181 Day T Bills
Mature on 12/18/25
Interest: $208.09
Investment Rate: 4.303%
4. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
Exchange Traded: Traded on the stock exchange just like a common stock
I am gradually buying 300 shares of EAI, ELC and EMP in my taxable accounts. The issuers are operating utilities owned by the utility holding company Entergy (ETR). I also own shares in RI accounts.
All of those first mortgage bonds mature in 2066 and consequently have considerable interest rate risks associated with a rise in long term rates. All are callable now at par value ($25) + accrued and unpaid interest. All have declined in price over the past two years or so in response to a rise in long term rates and are currently trading mostly in the $20-$21 price range. All pay interest on a quarterly basis. None of the prospectuses have make whole provisions.
I also own several $1,000 par value FM bonds from these issuers that have make whole provisions in their respective prospectuses.
On 6/13/25, the thirty year treasury bond closed at a 4.9% yield:
A. Bought 5 ELC at $20.11 - Schwab Account:
Cost: $100.53
Entergy Louisiana is an operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added 5 ELC at $20.52- Schwab Account (5/23/25 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on a $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat: (no accrued interest is payable to the seller, whoever owns on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment)
First Mortgage Bond, with lien attaching to substantially all assets.
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Interest Rate Risk: HIGH and asymmetric in favor of the issuer
The interest rate risk resulting from an early call due to a significant decline in interest rates is mitigated by the realized gain at a $25 par value call.
I want this bond to be called but the 30 year bonds will need to decline significantly in yield for that to happen. There is no make whole provision in the prospectus for ELC, meaning the issuer can call the bond at par value + accrued and unpaid interest. Call protection for exchange trade bonds typically last only for 5 years after issuance and none to my knowledge have make whole provisions in their respective prospectuses.
A make whole provision can create a penalty for an optional call when rates have declined, creating a disincentive for the issuer to exercise that option.
The most recent FM bond sold by Entergy Louisiana has a 5.8% coupon paid on a $1,000 par value and matures in 2055. Prospectus This is the make whole provision in the that $1,000 par value FM bond:
To exercise its early redemption option, the issuer has to pay the greater of par value or the "the sum of the present values of the remaining scheduled payments of principal and interest thereon discounted to the redemption date . . on a semi-annual basis at the Treasury Rate plus 20 basis points" (emphasis added)
Assume Entergy Louisiana could, without this make whole provision, call the 5.8% coupon bond in 5 years at par value, and refinance at 3% with a treasury maturing on the same date or closest thereto yielding 2.3%.
If there was no make whole provision, Entergy Louisiana would of course call at par, refinance at 3%, and the owner would then be worse off having to reinvest the proceeds at a much lower yield.
The make whole provision is aptly named since it would make the owner whole by requiring a substantial premium payment to par value for the issuer to exercise the optional call in this hypothetical. This equalizes the interest rate risk between the owner and the issuer in the declining interest rate scenario.
The owner still has all of the interest rate risk associated with interest rates rising above the 5.8% coupon for a similarly rated bond maturing in 2055.
The practical result is that the make whole in this example would prevent Entergy Louisiana from calling the bond since it would be in no better position after making the premium payment to par value.
The discounting to present value of the sum of all interest payments using the 5.8% coupon to maturity + the principal amount would be slow at 2.3% + .2%. As the rate used to discount to present value of that sum declines, the premium payment goes up.
With ELC, however, there is no make whole making a call likely in this scenario, where long term rates have declined significantly, that the issuer would call the 4.875% coupon bond and refinance at 3%.
New Average cost per share this account: $20.96 (70 shares)
Yield at AC = 5.815%
Computation: .04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 in annual interest per share ÷ $20.96 average cost per share = 5.8146%
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/30/25
First Mortgage Bond
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Maturity: 10/1/2066
No call protection. Issuer has the optional right to call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Interest Rate Risk: High given the potentially long maturity. Interest rate risk is asymmetric in favor of the issuer who has the optional call right. If interest rates fall too far, the issuer will call the bond, but will allow the owner to keep the security when interest rates are rising and the price is falling.
Credit Risk: Low IMO since the issuer is a regulated utility and the bond is a first lien on substantially all assets.
ETR SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Financial information for Entergy Mississippi starts at page 373. The company reported 2024 net income of $255.958M, page 391, which excludes a loss of $10.551M attributable to a noncontrolling interest.
EMP Trading Profits to Date: $464.9
A. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $18.42:
Quote: Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc.
I sold my highest cost 10 shares.
Proceeds: $184.2
Profit: $50.29
New average cost per share this account: $11.78 (30+ shares)
 |
| Price as of 6/12/25 Close |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
SBRA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 10.19%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in my last post. Item # 3.D. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $17.73 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.42); SEC Filed Supplemental and SEC Filed Press Release. I sold my highest cost shares which reduced my AC to $9.89.
B. Eliminated WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $92.09:
Quote: Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)
Proceeds: $552.55
WHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Our Brands | Whirlpool Corporation Brands include Maytag, Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Amana, and JennAir.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.L. Restarted WHR in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $77.4 (4/18/25 Post) The plan is to buy WHR shares only in my Schwab account going forward.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Pared WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $132.5 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $124.67); Item # 4.B. Eliminated WHR in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $120.1 (1/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.12)
Profit Snapshot: $35.95 (6/14 sale only, 2025 total at $184.47)
WHR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I received the last quarterly dividend on 6/15/25:
 |
| 6 shares |
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
Net sales declined 19.4% due to the divestiture of European operations.
Organic sales were up 2.2%
GAAP E.P.S. $1.28
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.7, down from $1.78
Free Cash Flow ($793M)
2025 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. $10/GAAP at $8.75
Whirlpool's Views on Tariffs:
SU Bond: I own 2 WHR 4.75% SU bonds maturing on 2/26/29. Bond Page | FINRA.org Subsequent to that purchase, both Moody's and S&P downgraded the WHR SU debt to junk (Ba1/BB+) from Baa3/BBB-. Fitch also downgraded the debt to BB+. Fitch Downgrades Whirlpool's IDR to 'BB+'; Outlook Negative
Last SU Bond Offering (6/2025): Prospectus
The company plans to use the proceeds to pay down a Term Loan that had a balance of $1.5B as of 3/31/25 with the interest rate then at 5.67%. Page S-8.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I published a video earlier today that discusses the Iran-Israel War and the possible entry of the U.S. into that conflict.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE6opGx8H94
Preemptive wars in the past, which would include the U.S. Iraq invasion, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and even the Vietnam War have had far reaching ramifications that are not predictable when started but none went according to pre-war predictions and all turned out far more costly than originally anticipated in terms of deaths, injuries and financial costs.
My most immediate investment response is to refrain from selling gold bullion which I have been tempted to do and to limit my stock risk until I have more clarity about the future.
I did restart a position in WCP:CA today buy buying 100 shares at C$9.57 on the Toronto exchange which was open today (C$1 IB Commission)
Whitecap Resources Inc.
C$9.62 +C0.10 +1.05%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wcp?countrycode=ca
Dividends are paid monthly at C$.0608.
https://www.wcap.ca/investors/dividend-information
Yield at TC of C$9.58 = 7.616%
My last trade was to eliminate 100 shares at C$11.92, when the dividend was much lower than now, realizing a C$495.5 gain.
Item # 3
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/06/eprt-feny-fhn-hbi-mpw-ofs-slg-wcpca-xom.html
Whitecap recently closed at an acquisition of Veren:
https://www.wcap.ca/investors/news-releases/details/whitecap-resources-inc.-closes-the-veren-combination-creating-a-leading-canadian-oil-and-natural-gas-producer%2C-and-increases-production-guidance/239
Last earnings report:
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/whitecap-resources-inc-announces-strong-first-quarter-results-and-continued-operational-momentum-837638570.html
I will discuss the trade in my next post whenever that may be.
If there is a surge in energy prices resulting from developments in the ME, then the Veren acquisition will be a well timed one.
I also have an excessive amount of CADs in my IB account, largely resulting from taking profits in Canadian Reset Equity Preferred stocks that went over C$59K. While IB pays me interest on those CADs, I will earn more by investing the idle cash in securities traded on the Toronto exchange. I will also likely sell some CADs to buy USDs, as I have done in the past, when and if the CAD/USD exceeds .8.
10 year CAD/USD Chart:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=10Y
I bought about 12K last Thursday or Friday during a tiny war worry sell off.
ReplyDeleteI bought back on Tuesday or Wednesday, the 12K. At a lower entry point so I made about $160., 1.3% Not worth it.
My original plan had been to sell out near the top of nearly everything in my roth and ride out the next year or two of chaos.
I'm beginning to have fomo worries that the blue sky crowd will cause a large rally on whatever positive signs it sees. Even though the market is overvalued.
So far I'm sticking with my plan.
I haven't listened to the video yet, so this isn't a comment on your comments. I'll have a chance to listen later in the day.
ReplyDeleteSomething I'm noticing in media and assessments is a lack of taking into account the different culture in Iran versus the other countries that we've interfered with.
Afghanistan and Iraq were very difficult because their tribal.
Different tribes needed to be brought to the table and made deals with, and then one leader picked in a democracy would look like one tribe had won.
Iran isn't tribal. There are ideology factions such as the extremist dictators. A couple of groups aligned with them that are even more extremist. The rest are everyday Iranians, who don't have tribes. And a bunch of minorities that are being persecuted.
They already vote in rigged elections. So they don't need a voting system set up. They just need it to be done legitimately.
So the aftermath is quite different than in Iraq or Afghanistan.
The worry would be those supporting the current regime, causing internal to Iran, terrorism. That's a non-trivial worry. Once there's a new government with military and security control, it's a pure security problem that should be able to be dealt with by the new government.
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It appears that EU, Trump, and most people are in agreement that the current Iranian government cannot have nuclear weapons internal to Iran.
There's no logical reason for them to need them. They have more oil than they need, so they don't need nuclear power. They've enriched to a point where it can only be assumed they're looking for nuclear weapons.
So one way or another either the US or Israel will take care of their nuclear weapons. And whatever fallout consequences there are to that.
__
My worry, is that if the government is not taken out, the Iranian people will suffer horribly. They're already suffering. They're not visibly uprising because they're saying that the IRGC are on streets with weapons ready to arrest and murder.
The internet has been turned off by the IRGC in Iran.
I don't see Israel having enough manpower to manage the safety during a transition period.. I doubt the transition period would need to be that long. This is a population highly supportive of change and very ready for it.
This regime has supported terrorism throughout the Middle East and throughout the world. It needs to go. But if it stays but the nuclear program is ended, it becomes significantly less of a problem for Israel or the US. I personally would really like to see better for the Iranian people. It would also totally rearrange the Middle East and geopolitical dynamics in a positive way. But it's a complicated topic.
___
I'm starting to see media report information from the IRGC as though it's factual. The same that they do with the Hamas Health ministry. There's a narrative they like to pick out, and even when guests clearly with facts, counter the narrative, they struggle to adjust. Makes it hard to figure out stuff from the news.
For instance media will bring up Tulsi's comment from March about lack of Iranian goals of a nuclear program. But then they'll not bring up the IAEA report from a week ago, that Iran had enriched beyond the point of it possibly being neutral, and were put on report by the IAEA. That'll be up to the guest to mention.
Media shows that Iranians are cheering attacks on Israel, yet they haven't investigated whether those tiny crowds are IRGC installed as IRGC has done before.
Really weirdly, on the side, I started asking on Twitter, if somebody supports Hamas, or if they support the IRGC. Those who are adamant on certain positions, that are not favorable to the US or Israel, persistently have not been able to say that they don't. Often they say that they do. I hadn't realized how many posters are shills.
LAND: Iran has the second largest proven natural gas reserves in the world and that is the primary fuel source used to generate electricity.
Deletehttps://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/irn
There is no need for any other fuel to generate electricity for a very long time.
As I understand it, Iran had enriched uranium to about 60%. Enrichment to weapons grade, which is about 90%, can now occur very quickly, something that I learned from listening to David Albright being interviewed by CNN.
https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/2025-06-20/segment/04
Nuclear power plants use .7% to 3.5% enriched U-235:
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment
The only reason to have uranium enriched to 60% is for a nuclear weapon.
It remains to be seen whether Trump is having another TACO moment. Nothing is likely to happen on the diplomatic front in 2 weeks that would end the hostilities or provide assurance to anyone that Iran will end its nuclear weapons program IMO. So Trump will either back off or he will order the U.S. to attack soon.
Plans seem to be underway that would be necessary as preparations for the U.S. to strike the Iranian enrichment facilities that Israel cannot take out. That includes the movement of 2 U.S B-2 stealth bombers capable of deploying the 30,000 pound MOP bombs (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) from the U.S. to the U.S. airbase in Guam. I have seen multiple reports of that movement including this one:
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-858468
I have also read reports that a U.S. naval fleet is being positioned so it can respond quickly to Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in the gulf region which can reasonably be expected when and if the U.S. attacks Fordow.
If Trump orders the attack, Iran will likely respond by attacking U.S. military bases in the area and then the U.S. will respond to those attacks by hitting other targets in IRAN.
Once that military engagement process starts, the outcome becomes unpredictable as to what will happen.
One possible Iranian retaliation would be to attack U.S. civilians in the U.S. using suicide bombers or just planting explosives in venues where there is a large gathering, saying then that this will stop when the U.S. stops bombing. No way to know where it goes as the famous saying goes "no plan survives contact with the enemy" attributed to Helmuth von Moltke in the 19th century who wrote something similar: "No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces."
If Iran does end up attacking U.S. civilians, then the possibility of a U.S. invasion to topple the regime becomes a real possibility, among many others.
Your understanding, is the one that I have too On the enrichment, and the move of equipment to the region and the sequence that US will take if Iran targets the US facilities in the region.
ReplyDeleteI didn't comment on the possibility of Iran sleeper cells in the US. Or lone wolves who listen to the news or what they consider news, and get motivated. It's a possibility.
The line and dangers between here and toppled regime is unknown. But on the other side, so many problems will be solved for the long term. So it would not be a bad thing if the regime was toppled If that happens.
On the investing om this, my read is that Trump is dedicated to not having nuclear weapons. He tends to be taco, but this is a more deeply held belief for a longer time. Plus he is getting ego support from the Israeli leadership and part of his base and he has to justify his pull out of the JCOPA agreement during his first term. So he needs either no nukes or an agreement. And Iran's not making an agreement than anybody can live with. Literally live with. The EU statement that they would insist on any agreement being creation of nuclear weapons only outside of Iran, I think seals this.
I watched one Israeli guest, I think it was opposition party Galant, who answered a question without answering the question. Instead it was a bunch of subtle accolades of Trump. You could almost read the conversation Netanyahu had with him on how to talk while on the air.
I know the Chinese saying is may you living interesting times. But I'll add to it This is weird times. On the home front, Trump from my understanding tweeted that we have too many non-working holidays... On June19th. A holiday that's been long overdue IMHO.
Meanwhile there's still about 34 hostages in Gaza I think it is 20 still alive. That are not getting attention or rescue. Not even a Red Cross visit. At least US and Israeli aid methods are finally getting past Hamas and feeding people.
Thanks for the info on the equipment moving into the Middle East. I hadn't seen all of those details.
I still have about 54k I want to sell a VXF. If nothing else, by selling out and waiting until hopefully a pull back, I'll be able to change the distribution in my Roth. I have way too much small cap and not enough NASDAQ and s&p.
ReplyDeleteThen I'd like to pick up some individual shares too.
Land: VXF will own stocks that are not in the S&P 500 which will generally include around 3,400 stocks. Small and mid-cap stocks are have underperformed the large caps for several years.
DeleteVXF annual average total returns
Data through 6/20/25
1 Year: 12.89%
3 years 14.72%
5 years 10.99%
10 years 8.52%
15 years 11.2%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vxf/performance
SPY Annual Average Total returns
1 year: 10.35%
3 years: 19.23%
5 Years: 15.65%
10 Years: 12.84%
15 Years: 13.84%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance
The Morningstar data can be accessed by non-subscribers.
While the past may not be prologue, the stocks in VXF would cause a total market ETF like VTI to underperform SPY over a long period of time. Both VTI and VXF have 3 star ratings from Morningstar while SPY has a 5 star rating.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vti/quote
And there is an S&P 100 ETF which has a .2% expense ratio which has a 5 star weighting:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/oef/performance
The 5 year annual average total return for OEF is 16.97%, higher than SPY, which indicates that the bottom 400 stocks in SPY restrained performance some.
This makes me wonder whether I could beat OEF by buying 1 share of 50 stocks in that index. I might give that a try.
The U.S. has bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran, focusing on the Fordow but also hitting Natanz, and Esfahan. A source told CBS News that 2 MOPs were used for each site.
ReplyDeleteTrump says that Iran needs to agree to no enrichment.
I seriously doubt that the Iranian government is going to end the conflict on those terms. The attack tonight is probably just the first salvo in what may turn out to be a long military engagement.
I had listened to interview of Niall Ferguson yesterday who said his sources claimed that Trump had already made the decision to attack, and the 2 more weeks for negotiation was just a ruse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8hJv2z9f78
In another interview with Ferguson and a respected journalist Dexter Filkins who has a number of Israeli sources, Ferguson claimed that Trump greenlighted Israel's initial attacks at a meeting at Camp David, and the meeting scheduled the next day with Iran was simply another ruse to catch Iran off guard as much as possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQeLEG4vCLA&t=3182s
I watched the entire interview last Thursday which was very informative.
Now we have a definitive answer about whether is USA was going to join in.
DeleteI've concluded that this isn't over until the regime is ended. There isn't any agreement that would be safe enough now that they're enraged. There's some talk about whether other players like Russia and China are going to provide weapons to Iran.
They're sending more powerful missiles to Israel so that they're getting less intercepted and getting through and hitting is really ground more frequently.
BUT The numbers have.dwindled. So the last round was 50 intended. 23 stopped by the IDF at the launch site. 27 got into Israeli airspace. Five landed.
___
There's no indication this regime is going to take a deal to save their lives and their dominance.
So I'm convinced that the end game plan has been to replace the regime, all along. But that remains to be done and seen.
___
My Iranian Twitter friend, was back in touch. The internet is back up. It had been down where they could Google but not open any of the links.
He's anxious for regime change. However with concerns about bombing from the air and the regime terrorizing, there's no talk about getting out and protesting.
During the last protest a couple years ago he talked about wanting to go out to the protest and I think did a little bit. So this is a change. There's much more fear of getting out there. For understandable reasons.
He said the IDF of bombing has been at facilities, not at civilians. Just a little bit of civilian injury. That the rest of the country is as usual, but people have emptied Tehran. When the bombing stops, they'll be able to come back, and start to take action.
But mostly they're waiting for somebody to kill off khameni and his son.
___
Thanks for the interview ideas!
Thank you for these ideas! The s&p 100 and OEF, would fill my slot for what I call mega stocks. Instead of being mega I'm just as happy for it to be the high focus stocks.
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to try and buy one of each. It would save 0.2%, but I'm not able to keep track. But since you're able to track many individual stocks, that may be a interesting idea.
VXF kept me from having no gain during that 10 years of s&p stand still. Instead my 401k did very well. However I didn't notice after that that VXF lagged. It was about 70% of my invested Roth funds, the only 20% in large caps by the time I added it up. Yikes. Not a good balance distribution. (Approximate)
For small cap and mid-cap, VXF has done better than IWM overtime. Since VXF has mid-caps as well as small caps being everything in the s&p except the top 500.
____
Wonder if the market's going to go down or up on all this news. I expect down initially.
Also if interest rates are going to go up on the uncertainty.
___
I was reading from one of the federation newsletters, the Israeli stock exchange has hit an all-time high. This is increase the sense of security. I had wanted to buy into the exchange. My tendency is to wait, but instead I think this may be the time to chase.
The indices they're referring to are:
Shares on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange reached all-time highs after the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear sites. The TA-125 index jumped 1.6%; the TA-35 index of blue-chip companies increased 1.5%, and the TA-Insurance and Financial Services index jumped by 3.2%. Shares rose during all five sessions last week, gaining some 6%, as Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military targets.
For an index funds are not for everyone. But I've wanted to take advantage of the Israeli economy and also put some in both India and Israeli markets.
Land: Fidelity has a "basket" program where an investor can invest as little as $1 per stock. The service costs $4.99 per month. While I have not subscribed and am consequently not familiar with the details, the basket may be separated from the main account. Multiple orders can be entered for whatever dollar amount an investor chooses. So far, I am just curious whether I could beat OEF by selecting about 40 of the 100 stocks and then buying in equal dollar amounts all 40 at the same time with subsequent purchases in the same amount during corrections and bear markets.
DeleteI am not about to start but I did compile a preliminary list of 40 stocks:
1 MSFT
2 APPL
3 NVDA
4 AMZN
5 GOOG
6 JPM
7 V
8 XOM
9 MA
20 WMT
11 PG
12 HD
13 ABBV
14 BAC
15 GE
16 CVX
17 WFC
18 ABT
19 DIS
20 MCD
21 AMD
22 MRK
23 QCOM
24 ADBE
25 RTX
26 MS
27 TMO
28 BLK
29 C
30 COF
31 LOW
32 DGR
33 HON
34 AMGN
35 COP
36 CMCSA
37 RTX
38 MO
39 CSCO
40 INTU
An interesting list just to look at. Maybe worth picking off in half a dozen during a pullback.
Delete30,000 * .2% fee is the $60 a year in the fidelity $1 plan.
So if the invested amount it's more than 30,000, the fidelity fee is less.
Land: I did not have MDT on the list since I already own 30 shares. Otherwise it would have been included.
DeleteIt is already possible at Fidelity to just manually enter dollar amounts rather than to buy shares so that would avoid the $4.99 monthly fee but there may be some time advantage in just selecting every stock in the basket and adding $50 or $100 to each one and then more or less in equal dollar amounts depending on whether the market has corrected or fallen into a bear market. And if the basket is kept separate from the main portfolio, I can see how I am doing compared to OEF
Fidelity also allows its customers to select fractional shares to sell. The other brokers will only liquidate fractional shares when the entire position is sold.
One reason why I use different brokers is the different perks and quirks that each has.
Vanguard by the way generally has the worse order book for corporate bonds with ask prices higher than at Fidelity and IB which sometimes has the best order book for a bond but Fidelity is better most of the time. I will have at least two broker order books open before placing an order.
Land: I noted in a recent blog a news article dated 6/8/24 that Trump diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles it promised to Ukraine and sent them to US troops in the Middle East. That suggested to me that the U.S. was aware of Israel's plans and were taking precautionary steps in the event Iran attacked U.S. bases in the region.
ReplyDeleteAs to the market's reaction, the short term reaction may be positive or barely negative at first based on a starting premise that Iran has been so severely weakened both militarily and economically that it has run out of options and will not retaliate against U.S. bases, or mine the Straits of Hormuz particularly after being pressured to do nothing by China who depends on Iranian oil shipped through the Straits. In this scenario of limited retaliation, Iran would continue firing missiles and drones at Israel, most of which will be intercepted, and that will not impact the U.S. stock market other than an initial anxiety attack. There is a slight possibility of regime change IMO.
Trump made it clear that the U.S. would militarily respond to attacks against U.S. troops. As tit-for-tat military exchanges occur between the U.S. and Iran increase, the more likely there will be of Iranian attacks inside the U.S. or against U.S. citizens and businesses overseas, particularly if Iranian civilians are killed in the U.S. military strikes.
I do anticipate that Russia, North Korea and China will be supplying more weapons to Iran. All of those countries would favor the U.S. being drawn into another costly war that does not directly involve them.
If the retaliation does include attacks against U.S. bases, attacks on shipping in the Straits of Hormuz effectively closing the Straits, mining the Straits, and/or some kind of asymmetric type warfare directed against the U.S. (soldiers, civilians embassies, and/or businesses,) then we are in another phase that will be volatile with a downside bias particularly if crude oil surges over a $100 a barrel when tariff taxes also starting to be reflected in consumer product prices leading to lower consumer demand and a possible recession.
I don't think the outcome is predictable. Possible scenarios number in the hundreds.
There is also insufficient information on whether Iran had moved its 60% enriched uranium from Fordow before the U.S. attack.
There is a satellite image showing 16 cargo trucks line up outside the facility before the attack.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/satellite-images-show-activity-at-irans-fordo-before-us-air-strikes.html
Iran claims to have moved the 60% enriched uranium and further claims that there is no permanent damage to the facility. I doubt that later claim but it is conceivable that something may have survived particularly if the depth is much deeper. The centrifuges are thought to be 262-295 feet underground. One MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet before exploding, which I have doubts about when the penetration is through solid rock, so it may have required 2 or even more direct hits to reach the underground facility located in a mountain 300 feet below the surface, and more if further down.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/massive-ordnance-penetrator-bomb-gbu-57-b-2-bomber-iran-fordo-nuclear-facility/
It would be viewed unfavorably if Iran managed to save its enriched uranium and has secured it in multiple hidden locations. For now investors are assuming that this material was destroyed which may prove to be incorrect.
The futures markets opened a few minutes ago and I would not yet draw any conclusions from those early trading prices about how the market will react when all participants are engaged Monday. I do anticipate a rise in the WTI price.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Typo: that was supposed to say foreign indices are not for everyone.
ReplyDeleteI'm certain it said it when I was done typing. But sometimes the autocorrect takes a while and then corrects after I'm done proofing.
I just looked. The market's not really reacting yet.
ReplyDeleteI'll need more info before I have a strong sense of any direction all of this is going in.
What keeps ringing in my head is Trump's announcement right at the beginning of the Israeli strikes, that they knew where the Ayatollah was but he had stopped the kill. It was messaging but I don't know what.
If The Ayatollah and son are eliminated, the people will flood in a revolution. Until then they're not going to do anything. So question is going to be that, on the topic of regime change.
I am expecting gold and WTI to rise but stocks may be little changed unless there is some major development on Iran's retaliation.
DeleteIt would have been a mistake to target and kill Khamenei. Besides uniting more Iranians against the U.S and Israel, it would inflame Shia muslims worldwide. I believe that he will soon be 86 and could die of natural causes at anytime. Just let nature take its course.
There is going to be almost zero support for using U.S. boots on the ground to effectuate regime change. I view that as a possibility only if Iran retaliates with multiple attacks against U.S. civilian targets.
The Democrats are understandably peeved that their leaders were not even told of the attack and heard about first on the news.
As of 6:37 CDT, the S&P 500 futures are down .32%:
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract
5,998.75 -19.25 -0.32%
Last Updated: Jun 22, 2025 at 6:37 p.m. CDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/es00
That kind of move can happen with nothing external impacting the market.
Crude oil is up more on a % basis:
Crude Oil WTI (NYM $/bbl) Front Month
$75.73 +1.89 +2.56%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1
Gold is up about $7 an ounce.
Investors will look at the bombing of the nuclear enrichment facilities positively only if Iran limits its retaliation to continued missile and drone attacks against Israel and Iran's nuclear weapons program has indeed been set back at least a decade, rather than accelerating the move to develop a nuclear weapon with enriched uranium that had been moved to unknown locations.
For now, there is no way to predict outcomes over the coming weeks and months. Anyone who thinks that this is possible is just wrong. There are just far too many possible scenarios and outcomes and many of those would be damaging to the U.S. economy and U.S. consumer discretionary spending.
Just came across that Trump had posted today,
ReplyDelete""It’s not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change?" US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social.
IMHO, I read that as he has intent for regime change. With congress's upset at his lack of consultation, there may not be opportunity /follow through.
SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)
ReplyDelete$26.39 +$8.75 +49.60%
Last Updated: Jun 23, 2025 at 10:34 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sptn?mod=search_symbol
I sold the 20 shares that I owned in a taxable account at $26.38+ earlier this morning. 15 of those shares were acquired in January 2025 between $17.4 to $18.23 and the other 5 at $18.06 in July 2024. The % gain before the dividends was 47.37%.
I had been buying the dips and selling the rips.
SPTN is being acquired for $26.9 in cash. The acquiring company, which is privately owned, claims that it has financing lined up.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/877422/000110465925061407/tm2518553d1_ex99-1.htm
I do not foresee regulatory opposition since the grocery supply business is still highly fragmented, but there is no way to know for sure. I see no reason to take a chance that opposition will emerge for a 50 cents more per share.
I will discuss this trade briefly in my next post that will be published on 7/3/25. I will not be publishing a post this week.
Iran's response to the U.S. bombing raid was extremely weak. Iran noted that it had fired only the same number of missiles as the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. and chose a base that was not near populated areas.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/explosions-heard-in-qatar-home-to-u-s-airbase-amid-iranian-threats-to-retaliate-for-strike-on-nuclear-sites
I read a report earlier today that Iran issued a warning before firing the missiles, not to the U.S. but to Qatar who relayed the warning to the U.S.
Investors are interpreting Iran's response as expressing its willingness to avoid further hostilities, which is a reasonable interpretation and a likely one as well. However, that interpretation lacks certainty.
The opinion reached by investors after that weak retaliation is consistent with the belief that Iran is too weak now to take on both Israel and the U.S. and has lost its ability to meaningfully retaliate through its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah.
And one possible explanation for Iran's muted response, so far at least, is that Iran's nuclear weapons program largely survived the B-2 MOPs dropped on the Fordow facility and/or the enriched uranium that was close to weapons grade had been moved prior to the attack. In that scenario, the danger may have increased as Iran moves in secret to develop weapons grade enriched uranium.
WTI Crude oil has retreated back below $70 and stocks are in a rally mode.
National Healthcare Properties Inc. 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A (NHPAP)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nhpap
The last trade was at $15.
This REIT equity preferred stock is the riskiest one that I own both in terms of credit risk and the risk that the cumulative preferred dividend will be deferred since it is not currently covered by funds from operations.
NHPAP will frequently rally some when the issuer, a private REIT that owns health care properties, declares a dividend. The price closed at $14.3 on 6/20. After the close the company declared the regular dividend on its two publicly traded preferred stocks.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/20/3102925/0/en/National-Healthcare-Properties-Announces-Preferred-Stock-Dividends.html
There is a possibility that this private REIT which is now internally managed may be acquired since it has gotten rid of its poorly performing external manager. If the acquirer is one of the large investment grade healthcare REITs like DOC or HR, those companies would have an incentive to call the two preferred stocks at the $25 par value or the credit risk issue that is causing a deflated price would become minimal in that eventuality.
No cash dividend is being paid to the common shareholders, so there is no legal impediment to deferring payment of the cumulative preferred stock dividend. There is some incentive to paying the dividend, assuming lenders do not stop the payments, since there is a legal obligation to pay the deferred cumulative dividends in full when and if this REIT pays a cash dividend.
The company may try to go public, which it is exploring, in which case those investors buying the IPO would expect a cash dividend. But IMO operations will need to be improved significantly before that would be advisable. The better option for common shareholders IMO would be to sell the company and end their suffering.
++
I heard a republican congressman, Mike Lawler of NY, assert that he is certain that Iran agreed to a ceasefire only because its nuclear enrichment sites were obliterated by the MOPs.
Maybe that is the case. I view it now as the most likely explanation but not the only one.
Another possibility is that Iran benefits the most from a ceasefire. If the nuclear weapons program survived the MOPs, then the ceasefire gives Iran the opportunity to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons in secret. In this scenario, being left alone for several years and without a regime change, Iran detonates a nuclear bomb in the desert in 5 to 10 years and asserts then that it will consider using the weapon if attacked again.
None of the developments in the Israel-Iran War have altered any of my investment decisions. The major issues remain the possible resurgence in inflation and anemic U.S. consumer spending, and a ceasefire in the Iran war only impacts those issues through the price of crude oil and gasoline going back down.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/06/atlcp-eai-fbrt-fhn-gsbd-lgnd-nsa-ntst.html
I ended up doing enough stock trades to justify a post this week. I am going to try and do almost nothing over the next 7 days, so I hope to skip publishing a post next week.