AGR, CMCSA, CODX, COLB, CPF, DOW, FBIO, FHN, FISV, KOMP, MCY, OPBK, QQQJ, SCM, VABK, VIAC

Economy:  

ADP reported that the economy added 528,000 private sector jobs in November. ADP National Employment Report | November 2021

The BLS reported today that the economy added 210,000 jobs last month. Employment Situation Summary The Dow Jones estimate was for a 573K increase. The prior estimates for October and September were revised up by 82K. The unemployment rate in November was reported at 4.2%, down from 4.6% in October. The average work week increased by .1 hour to 34.8 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 8 cents. Over the past 12 month, wages have increased by 4.8%. The labor participation rate increased to 61.8%, the highest level since March 2010. The U-6 number was reported at 7.8%, down from 8.3% in October 2021. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization 

Job growth disappoints in November, with a nonfarm payrolls gain of just 210,000

Black Friday shopping in stores drops 28% from pre-pandemic levels

New data shows Merck’s experimental covid-19 pill is less effective than early results predicted - The Washington Post (the new study shows that the pill reduced the need for hospitalization by only 30% compared to the initial claim of about 50%) An FDA advisory panel narrowly recommended emergency use approval in a 13 to 10 vote. There are legitimate concerns IMO about the safety of this pill and whether the risks outweigh the benefits. When I recently pared my MRK position, I mentioned then that this pill would have a hard competing with PFE's pill, and the Stock Jocks have now come to that conclusion Item # 2.A. Eliminated MRK in Schwab Account-Sold 4 at $81.57 (11/18/21 Post) MRK closed yesterday at $73.59 after hitting an intraday high of $91.4 on 11/4/21 after announcing the initial trial results. 

Shutdown averted after Congress passes spending bill. - The Washington Post The bill funds the government through 2/12/22. (only 1 House republican voted against a U.S. default and he is not running for reelection in 2022) 

Omicron covid variant has higher risk of reinfection than delta, South Africa researchers say - The Washington Post ("Scientists in South Africa say omicron is at least three times more likely to cause reinfection than previous variants such as beta and delta, according to a preliminary study published Thursday.") Only 6% of Africa's population has been fully vaccinated. While vaccines are readily available in South Africa, there is considerable resistance as in the U.S. among republicans. For COVID-19 vaccinations, party affiliation matters more than race and ethnicity; KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: September 2021 | KFF The omicron variant will cause some holdouts in the U.S. to receive their first vaccination. 

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

The rally yesterday may have been caused by a JPM assessment that the omicron panic was over done based on the analysts' opinion that reports from Pfizer, the Israeli Health Minister, Oxford and WHO had "invalidated" the Moderna CEO's caution about existing vaccine effectiveness.The omicron panic is overdone. Buy the dips in these stocks, says JPMorgan. - MarketWatch Apparently, the two JPM market strategists read different statements than the ones that were actually made. For example, this is what Pfizer had to say: 

“We don’t expect that there will be a significant drop in effectiveness,” Ralf Rene Reinert, vice president of vaccines for international developed markets, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But again, this is speculation. We will check this. We will have the data in the next couple of weeks.” Pfizer Expects Covid Vaccine to Be Effective Against Omicron - Bloomberg (12/2/21)

Oxford simply said that it was early and there was not any evidence yet that the variant would defeat the vaccines. 

Israeli Health Minister: With two confirmed cases in Israel, both having received 3 vaccine shots and nonetheless became infected with the Omicron variant, and last reported to have experienced mild Covid symptoms, Israel's Health Minister opined "early indications show that those who have a booster are most likely protected against this variant". Hardly a rebuttal or an invalidation given the 2 breakthrough infections so far, the use of  words likely" and "early indications" and the ambiguity on the decree of protection from such a meaningless small sample.  

It may very well turn out that the vaccines will be effective against omicron, possibly even having the same decree of effectiveness against death and serious illness as against the now dominant Delta variant. And, hypothetically, if the omicron variant becomes the dominant strain, and has less health impacts than Delta, that could be a favorable development.  

My point here is that no one really knows yet how effective the vaccines will be notwithstanding the comments made by JPM's market strategists. 

Ray Dalio says cash is not a safe place right now despite heightened market volatility Cash is not "safe" for anyone who has to grow their capital. 

JPMorgan's S&P 500 forecast for 2022 is among the most bullish on Wall Street. Here's the biggest risk it sees for stocks. - MarketWatch (long equity exposure to rising oil prices, predicting $150 crude oil price by 2023; small caps, financials and healthcare)

Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger says markets 'crazier' now than they were in the late 1990s - MarketWatch

BNP Paribas forecasts S&P 500 at 5,100 by year-end 2022 - MarketWatch

Opinion: In his final warning, this stock trading wizard --- who made big money in bear markets and crashes --- called this market a bubble like no other - MarketWatch

Shiller PE Ratio at 38.62

S&P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio-150 Years (2nd Chart) 

Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart (208.31% vs 140.71% in 1999). 

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: November Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (1.94 vs. 1.67 in 1999)

Regression to Trend: 186% Above Trend in November - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

P/E & Yields (as of 11/24, trailing TTM P/E using GAAP earnings was at 28.81 for the S & P 500 with a dividend yield of 1.28%, down from 1.65% a year ago)

S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios

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Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks: 

Cisco (CSCO) SEC Filed Press Release (this report is for the first fiscal quarter ending on 10/30/21; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.82 with the consensus at $.804 per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. = $.70; revenue = $12.9B; for the 2022 fiscal year, CSCO guides to non-GAAP E.P.S. of $3.38-$3.45 with 5% to 7% revenue growth Y-O-Y) 

Clipper Realty (CLPR) SEC Filed Press Release (AFFO per share = $.10, declared regular quarterly dividend of $.095 per share; revenues  = $30.6M; continues "to see meaningful signs of improvement as New York City further strengthens from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. We anticipate recently strong rental demand to remain elevated, and pricing to improve, as New York City continues to reopen and vaccinations proliferate.")

Fidelity Financial (FNF) SEC Filed Press Release (while the name sounds like a bank, FNF sells title insurance, life insurance and annuities; E.P.S. = $2.58, adjusted to $2.12 with the consensus at $1.654 per Fidelity)

Gilead (GILD) SEC Filed Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. up 26% to $2.65 with the consensus at $1.734 per Fidelity; free cash flow = $3.114B; revenues up 13% to $$7.4B; "HIV product sales decreased 8% to $4.2 billion for the third quarter 2021 . . reflecting, as expected, the loss of exclusivity of Truvada and Atripla in the United States, as well as lower channel inventory as compared to the same period in 2020, primarily driven by pandemic-related stocking in the prior year, partially offset by higher Biktarvy demand and improved trends in the treatment market."; Hepatitis C virus (“HCV”) product sales decreased 8% to $429 million"; Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis delta virus revenues increased 17% to $247M; cell therapy drug revenues increased 51% to $222M; Veklury (remdisvir) revenues = $1.9B but market does not expect this boost to last that much longer given the relatively low P/E multiple, so an earnings beat during the third quarter is discounted IMO; raises 2021 non-GAAP E.P.S guidance to $7.9-$8.10 from previous $6.9-$7.25) 

Incyte (INCY) SEC Filed Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.18 with the consensus at $.828 per Fidelity; revenue = $812.987M which includes $35M in milestone and contract revenues; 2021 third quarter revenues up from $620.643 in the 2020 2nd Q; Jakafi net product revenues of $547.373M and another $94.655M in royalty revenues)

Iron Mountain (IRM) SEC Filed Press Release (AFFO = $263M or $.90 per share; revenue = $1.13B, up 9% Y-O-Y; guides 2021 AFFO to $3.33-$3.45) I own IRM in 3 of my taxable accounts. In my Fidelity account, I have pared my positions down to $23.79 (17 shares). Item # 1.A. The average cost per share in my Schwab account is $25.7 (19+ shares). Item # 2.M. The AC is my Vanguard account is at $21.75 (3 shares). Item # 2.L The total position in taxable accounts is down to 39+ shares with an AC of $24.49, creating at that cost number a 9.9% dividend yield.

Kennedy Wilson Holdings (KW) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.47; "share of recurring property NOI, loan income and fees totaled $111 million in 3Q-21, an increase of $9 million from 3Q-20."; "share of gains from the sale of real estate, increases in fair values and promotes totaled $139 million in 3Q-21, an increase of $130 million from 3Q-20."; AUM up 17% to $20.5B) My AC per share is at $14.3. 

Kinder Morgan (KMI) SEC Filed Press Release ("third quarter net income attributable to KMI of $495 million, compared to $455 million in the third quarter of 2020; and distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1,013 million, compared to $1,085 million in the third quarter of 2020. Adjusted Earnings were $505 million for the quarter, versus $485 million in the third quarter of 2020."; adjusted E.P.S. = $.22 with the consensus at $.243)

Northrim Bancorp (NRIM) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $1.42 based on net income of $8.88M, with the consensus at $1.44; $1.1 benefit from  reversal of reserves; NIM = 3.47%, down from 3.93% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio = 68.07%; NPL Ratio = .79%; ROA  1.4%;  ROE = 14.47%; tangible book value per share = $36.66) My AC per share is currently at $22.42. Item # 4.J. 

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) Reports Strong Results for the Third Quarter 2021 (E.P.S. at C$1.o1, beating the consensus by C$.28 according to Fidelity; however, the E.P.S. included C$350M pre-tax fee "related to the termination of the proposed acquisition of Inter Pipeline."; total revenue = C$2.149B, up from C$1.496B in the 2020 third quarter; cash flow per share from operating activities = C$1.66, adjusted to C$1.43; "Total volumes of 3,411 mboe/d for the third quarter represent an approximately one percent decrease over the same period in the prior year.") The stock has been under pressure since the CEO resigned on 11/22 "to pursue other opportunities".  SEC Filing I have sold all but 18 shares held in taxable account. My current AC is at US$14.85: 

Stock Price as of 11/26

Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM) SEC Filed Press Release (Core FFO per share  =$.43; AFFO per share = $.31; "As of September 30, 2021, the Company had real estate investments comprised of 152 industrial buildings totaling 26.6 million square feet with occupancy of 96.3%. During the third quarter, the Company acquired five buildings totaling 1.8 million square feet for a total of $101.5 million, a weighted average price of $62 per square foot, and a weighted average initial projected yield of 7.2%. The acquired buildings are in Memphis, Tennessee, St. Louis, Missouri, and Chicago, Illinois."; "Subsequent to quarter end, the Company acquired five industrial buildings totaling 1.6 million square feet for $117.0 million, a weighted average price of $74.76 per square foot, and an initial yield projected yield of 6.1%."; declared regular quarterly dividend of $.21 per share) I also own 10 shares of PLYMPRA, a 7.5% equity preferred stock, that was bought at $25. Item # 2.A. Another 5 share purchase was made in my Fidelity account at $25 (8/6/20).. I currently expect that preferred stock to be called when Plymouth can legally do so, which is on 12/31/22. I will generally own smaller positions in my ROTH IRA accounts. In my Vanguard Roth IRA, I own 5 PLYM shares with an AC of $11.79, acquired on 7/9/20, and 5 shares of PLYMPRA with an AC of $25. PLYMPRA fell to below $12 in March 2020, but I did not notice that decline since this preferred stock was not owned at that time and was not on a monitor list. I have eliminated all but 20 shares of the common held in taxable accounts, with a current AC of $12.34: 

Stock Price as of 11/26

Organon (OGN) SEC Filed Press Release (non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.67 with the consensus at $1.443 per Fidelity; non-GAAP net income continuing operations = $424M; GAAP E.P.S. = $1.27; revenues $1.6B, down 1% Y-O-Y) OGN was spun out of Merck earlier this year. 

Scotiabank (BNS) SEC Filed Press Release (all amounts in Canadian dollars; net income of $2.550B with E.P.S. at $1.97, up from $1.42; adjusted E.P.S. at $2.10 with the consensus at $1.916 per Fidelity; primary adjustments is $188M related to restructuring;  adjusted ROE at 15.6%)

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Trump allies work to place supporters in key election posts across the country, spurring fears about future vote challenges - The Washington Post America's anti-democracy party learned in the last election that principled republican election officials will do their duty even if it means certifying that a Democrat won the election. The republicans are replacing those officials to insure that will not happen again. 

Have you heard the new Republican conspiracy theory about the Omicron variant? 

Marcus Lamb, anti-vaccine Christian broadcaster dies after Covid battle What is Christian about refusing to take a vaccine? 

'Doesn't Have a Clue': Trump Calls on Mitch McConnell to Resign as Senate Minority Leader

Lara Logan draws outrage for comparing Fauci to Nazi doctor Josef Mengele on Fox News - The Washington Post; Jewish Groups Condemn Lara Logan’s Comments Comparing Anthony Fauci To Josef Mengele – Deadline; Fox host doubles down on outrageous comparison of Fauci to Nazi 'Angel of Death' doctor as network remains silent Logan, who was a respected journalist, has destroyed her reputation among non-wingnuts by becoming thoroughly Foxified. Maria Bartiromo, who for reasons that are inexplicable is called a journalist, is another person who has destroyed her reputation, though I never viewed her, unlike Logan, as a real journalist. (see, e.g. New book alleges Fox's Maria Bartiromo shouted at Bill Barr about imagined voter fraud)

++++++

1. Bought 100 OPBK at $10.56:

Quote: OP Bancorp 

OPBK closed at $12.79 yesterday. At that price, the market cap is about $205+M. The stock fell $.79 with volume at 49.39K compared to the average volume of 23.6K. As with other mini caps, the price can be jerked up and down by relatively small trades. 

OP Bancorp is the holding company for Open Bank. The bank "is engaged in the general commercial banking business in Los Angeles, Orange, and Santa Clara Counties, California, and Carrollton, Texas and is focused on serving the banking needs of small- and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and residents with a particular emphasis on Korean and other ethnic minority communities. The Bank currently operates with nine full branch offices in Downtown Los Angeles, Los Angeles Fashion District, Los Angeles Koreatown, Gardena, Buena Park, and Santa Clara, California and Carrollton, Texas. The Bank also has four loan production offices in Atlanta, Georgia, Aurora, Colorado, and Lynnwood and Seattle, Washington."

This is a new name for me. 

OPBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

OPBK SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.10, raised from $.07 effective for the 4th quarter payment. 

Yield at $10.56 = 3.79%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/9 (owned as of)

3 year Financials: Note that the percentage decline in interest expense was greater Y-O-Y in 2020 than the decline in interest income. 

Sourced: Page 64 of the 2020 Annual Report 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21):  SEC Filed Press Release

E.P.S. = $.54

Consensus at $.413 per Fidelity 

NIM = 4.21%, up from 3.66% (30 basis points due to accounting conventions for Hana loan purchase)  

Adjusted NIM = 3.91% 

Efficiency Ratio = 47.28%

NPL Ratio = .09%

NPA Ratio = .06%

Charge off Ratio: zero

ROA = 2.03%

ROE = 21.3% 

Earnings are being juiced by the sale of loans. For the third quarter, OPBK earned $2.188M pre-tax from that category.   

2. Small Ball:  

A. Bought 5 MCY at $51.79 

Quote: Mercury General Corp 

"Mercury General Corporation and its subsidiaries are a multiple line insurance organization offering predominantly personal automobile and homeowners insurance through a network of independent producers in many states."

Mercury General Corp. Analyst Estimates  (erratic)  Earnings will be erratic since payments for insurance claims will vary as will investment gains and losses. 

MCY SEC Filings 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Dividend: Quarterly at $.635 per share ($2.54 annually)

MCY Dividend History-Nasdaq

As a practical matter, dividend growth is meaningless. The penny rate was at $.613 in 2013. 

Yield at $51.79 = 4.9%

Next Ex Dividend: 12/15/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Investment Portfolio:

Sourced: 10-Q at page 42 

B. Bought 4 VIAC at $37.07; 5 at $36; 5 at $35.3; 5 at $33.53; 5 at $32.95; 5 at $31.5; 5 at $30.9; 5 at 29.95; 5 at $29.5; 5 at $29.20; 5 at $28.95:

On the bright side, buying in these small lots has been better than buying all of the shares at the highest price, which is my only favorable observation about the price movement after my first purchase. 

Quote ViacomCBS Inc. Cl B 

VIAC Analyst Estimates As of 12/2/21, the 2022 consensus E.P.S. estimate is at $3.94. 

VIAC SEC Filings 

2020 Annual Report 

I view the stock, now selling at below 10 times forecasted 2021 earnings, to be undervalued but that is a contrarian opinion. The TTM P/E is 6.1 according to Fidelity.   

The negative opinions are based on the following concerns IMO: (1) cord cutting for the cable channels; (2) programming costs associated with the new streaming service Paramount +; (3) renewed concerns about the pandemic negatively impacting advertising revenues and (4) debt levels, particularly if interest rates start to rise persistently. 

Recent News:

ViacomCBS To Sell CBS Studio Center For $1.85 Billion (11/30/21)

Paramount+ Reaches New Heights With Best Week Ever (11/17/21) I subscribe to this streaming service. 

Justice Department Sues to Block Sale of Simon & Schuster - Variety (11/2/21) Viacom agreed to sell this publisher for $2.1B back in November 2020. 

In March 2021, VIAC  "20 million shares of our Class B Common Stock at a price to the public of $85 per share and 10 million shares of 5.75% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock (“Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock”) at a price to the public and liquidation preference of $100 per share. The net proceeds from the Class B Common Stock offering and the Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock offering were approximately $1.67 billion and $983 million, respectively, in each case after deducting underwriting discounts, commissions and estimated offering expenses." 

1 Year Chart: A foreign hedge fund took the stock price up to unsustainable levels before going bankrupt. VIAC used that run up to sell stock.   

Average cost per share: $32.28 (55 shares) Using the consensus E.P.S. forecast for 2022 of $3.94, the P/E at $32.28 is 8.19.   

As of close on 12/2/21

Investment Category: Dividend Growth (see below)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)

Dividend History:

Dividend Growth Rate:

Yield at AC = 2.97%

Next Ex Dividend:   12/14/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Revenue: $6.61B, up 13% from $5.837 in the 2020 third quarter

GAAP E.P.S. = $.80, includes $.11 from discontinued operations 

GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations = $.69

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.76

Added 4.3M global streaming subscribers, reaching almost 47M 

Generated a 44% increase in streaming advertising revenue   

Streaming revenue up 62% to $1.079B

There was a 18% increase in licensing revenues to $1.507B: 

page 42 10-Q

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

Long Term Debt = $17.696B as of 9/30/21 (see page 5 10-Q)

Most Recent Sell Discussions:

Item # 1. Eliminated VIAC-Sold 107+ at $40.18  (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $299.07); Item #1.D. Eliminated VIAC in Fidelity Account-Sold 93+ at $27.18 (9/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot =  $74.24; post includes a snapshot of a $81.71 profit from a 30 share lot owned in my Vanguard account) I have had in the past had trouble trading VIAC, though I have managed to exit the positions at net profits. My small ball purchases tend to be all over the place with a substantial price differential between the highest and lowest purchase prices. 

And I am off to a rocky start on my latest foray.

C. Bought 5 CPF at $27.59: 

Quote: Central Pacific Financial Corp. 

CPF is the holding company for Central Pacific Bank that has 31 branches in Hawaii. 

Central Pacific Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates 

2020 Annual Report

5 Year Financial Data: 

The NIM has remained steady near 3.3% notwithstanding the FED's Jihad Against the Savings Class.

The charge off ratio is well below average. 

The NPL ratio has remained barely above zero over this five year period.  

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

This is a new name for me. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment.  

Yield at $27.59 = 3.62%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/21 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Net income = $20.8M

E.P.S. = $.74

Consensus at $.58 per Fidelity

NIM: 3.31%, up from 3.19% in the 2020 third quarter

Efficiency Ratio: 62.32%

Coverage Ratio = 1,030.63%

NPA Ratio = .1%

Cost of deposits declined to .05%.

Board increased the quarterly dividend by 4.2%. 

Repurchased 234,700 shares at an average cost of $25.12

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio = 14.6%

D. Eliminated QQQJ in Fidelity Account-Sold 10 at $35.05: 

Quote: Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website: Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF Note that the P/E ratio was 46.35  and at 32.42 using the estimated non-GAAP earnings over the next 12 months, both as of 9/30/21. 

This fund invests in the largest 101st to 200th largest Nasdaq stocks. 

Expense Ratio = .15%

Profit Snapshot: +$86.74

Item # 2.E. Bought 5 QQQJ at 26.50; 5 at $26.25  (11/13/20 Post) 

Top 10 Holdings as of 11/26/21: 

Holdings- Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF

The IPO for this ETF was in late 2000. 

E. Added to DOW-Bought 2 at $58.69; 3 at $56.32; 2 at $55-Vanguard Account: 

Quote: Dow Inc.

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

DOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Dow Inc Profile | Reuters

Dow Inc Key Metrics | Reuters

DOW SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q For the Q/E 9/30/21 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 2 DOW in Schwab Account at $58.54 (8/12/21 Post) 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute 

Average cost per share this account:  $56.62  (7 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 per share ($2.8 annually) 

DOW Dividend History-Nasdaq

Yield at AC = 4.95%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/21 (owned 5 shares as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

E.P.S. = $2.23 based on net income of $1.683B

Revenues: $14.8B, up 53% from the 2020 third quarter.  

Dow reduced gross debt by more than $1.1B during the quarter and repurchased $400M in stock. 

Free cash flow = $3.477B  for the first 9 months

Goal: For common stocks bought as bond substitutes, the goal is to eventually harvest an annual total return of 2+% over the dividend payments. 

F. Started VABK in Vanguard Account-Bought 5 at $33.8: 

Quote: Virginia National Bankshares Corp.

Corporate Profile | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Bought 5 VABK at $32.6 (6/25/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share 

Yield at $33.8: 3.55%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/8/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (VABK) Announces Second Quarter Financial Results 

GAAP E.P.S. of $.03, hit by $5.9M in acquisition related costs; 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.89; 

no analyst estimates; 

NIM = 3.05%; 

loan to deposit ratio = 71.6%; 

net recoveries; 

NPA Ratio = .18%; 

NPL Ratio = zero; 

Total capital ratio = 13.47%; 

tangible book value per share = $26.6; 

other ratios are distorted by merger expense 

G. Started FHN in Vanguard Account-Bought 5 at $16.92: 

Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)

FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

3 Years of Financial Performance Data: 

Page 54 Annual Report

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share, last raised from $.14 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. I would describe the long term dividend history as negative.  Quick to slash and slow to raise. The current annual rate of $.45 per share is below the 1996 level. 

Dividends - First Horizon Corporation 

Yield at $16.92  = 3.55%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/21

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.H. Added 5 FHN at $8.56; 5 at $7.7; 1 at $7.41 (4/11/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 5 FHN at $14.77; 10 at $13.70; 5 at $12.73; 5 at $11.46; 5 at $10.8; 5 at $10.3 and 5 at  $9.12 (3/14/20 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): First Horizon (FHN) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.41; 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.5o with the consensus at $.408 per Fidelity; 

Non-GAAP excludes "notable items tied to the IBERIABANK Corporation Merger ("IBKC Merger") and early retirement of certain trust preferred securities"; 

adjusted net income = $275M; 

NIM = 2.4%, down from 2.84% in the 2020 third quarter; 

adjusted efficiency ratio = 62.87%; 

charge off ratio - .02%; 

NPL ratio = .63%; 

adjusted ROTE = 18.4%; 

adjusted ROA = 1.28%; 

tangible book value per share = $10.88 

In another account, the last discussed pare brought my AC per share down to $9.32 (53+ shares). Item # 1.A. 

Apparently, I did not discuss another pare that reduced the position to 47+ shares with an AC at $8.97.  The yield at that AC is currently at 6.69%. 

Snapshots Intraday on 12/1/21: 

I sold 6.612 shares at $17.51+ on 4/12/21, realizing a gain of $37.90: 

I also own 20+ shares in my Schwab taxable account with a $9.49 average cost per share.

Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.A. Pared FHN-Sold 50 at $16.3; 5 at $16.87 (3/13/21 Post)

Realized FHN Gains to date: $317.61.  

H. Eliminated AGR-Sold 3 at $53.2: 

Quote: Avangrid Inc.

AGR SEC Filings

AGR Investor Relations Website

AGR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (consensus at $2.16 for 2021 which translates into a 24.63 P/E at $53.20)

2020 Annual Report 

AGR Profile | Reuters

AGR Key Metrics | Reuters

Profit Snapshot: $24.09

This stock is overpriced IMO. The dividend growth history is poor. AGR does receive buying interest due to its commitment to renewable energy generation. 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Bought 1 AGR at $44,66 (3/6/21 Post); Item # 3.N. Added to AGR-Bought 1 at $44.95 (12/19/20 Post); Item # 2.N. Bought 1 AGR at $45.95 (12/12/20 Post)(substantive discussion)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 ($1.72 annually)

The penny rate was $.432 in 2016. 

Dividend History

Yield at $53.2 :  3.23%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21):  SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP Net income of $111M or $.29 per share

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.34

Consensus at $.289 per Fidelity

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

The reference to "networks" in the previous snapshots refers to 8 owned "electric and natural gas utilities, serving more than 3.3 million customers in New York and New England."

I. Added 1 FISV at $98.6: 

Quote: Fiserv, Inc.

Fiserv Profile | Reuters

Website: Financial Services Technology, Mobile Banking, Payments | Fiserv

Investor Relations - Fiserv, Inc.

FISV Analyst Estimates (consensus 2022 E.P.S. at $6.5 and at $7.51 for 2023, up from an estimated $5.58 this year) Those are non-GAAP estimates. Using the 2022 consensus and my current AC per share of $102.64, the P/E is about 15.79 and at 13.67 using the 2023 estimate). 

FISV SEC Filings

FISV 2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 (debt is listed at page 16)

Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Bought 1 FISV at $106.67 (7/15/21 Post) 

Current Position: 2 shares with an AC of $102.64 per share

Dividends: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $.64

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $1.47

Revenues = $4.163B, up from $3.786B in the 2020 third quarter

Company expects 2021 internal revenue growth to be up 11%, with adjusted E.P.S. in the $5.5 to $5.6 range

"Free cash flow was $2.29 billion in the first nine months of 2021 compared to $2.59 billion in the prior year period." 

"repurchased 3.2 million shares of common stock for $365 million in the third quarter and 13.4 million shares of common stock for $1.57 billion in the first nine months of 2021."  IMO, this debt heavy company needs to quit buying common shares and to use those funds to pay down debt. 

Long Term Debt as of 9/30/21: $20.54B

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

This was the response to FISV's earnings report released on 10/27 which beat the consensus estimate: FISV $98.83 -$11.01 -10.02%  The mobile payment industry sector has been weak as shown by the recent price action in the Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY): 

FISV is a top ten holding in that ETF. 

J. Added to CMCSA- Bought 2 CMCSA at $51.91:

Quote: Comcast Corp. Cl A 

CMCSA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (the consensus E.P.S. for 2022 is currently at $3.71, up from $3.17 in 2021. At my AC per share of $53.1, and using the 2022 estimate, the P/E is about 14.31 with a 17% estimated Y-O-Y E.P.S. growth rate. The PEG ratio would be less than 1 with those numbers.) 

CMCSA SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 2 CMCSA at $54.5; 1 at $52.72 (4/24/21 Post) 

Average cost per share: $53.1 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $25 per share, last raised from $.23 effective for the 2021 2nd quarter payment. 

Yield at AC = 1.88% 

The low yield will restrain my dollar exposure. 

Next Ex Dividend: 1/4/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Non-GAAP E.P.S.  = $.87

Consensus at $.75 per Fidelity 

GAAP E.P.S. = $.86

Revenue $30.298B, up 18.7% from the 2020 third quarter. 

Net cash provided by operating activities = $6.1B

Free Cash Flow = 3.234B, up 41.3%

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (10/28/21): 4 stars with a FV of $60 and a wide moat. 

Credit Suisse (10/28/21): Outperform with a 12 month PT of $70 

Argus (11/3/21): Buy with a $67 PT

S & P (10/28/21): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $60

My gut has informed me that a $60 12 month PT is more reasonable than $70 but the stock is struggling now due to a slowdown in video subscribers, slower than previously projected increases in broadband services and losses in the recently launched Peacock streaming services.  

K. Eliminated KOMP- Sold 1 at $65.89 (Vanguard Taxable): 

Quote: SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF Overview

Sponsor's Website: KOMP: SPDR® S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF

Expense Ratio = .2%

Profit Snapshot: $26.17

Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Bought 1 KOMP at $38.8-Assigned Placeholder Status (8/1/2020 Post) 

Some Holdings as of 11/24:

Some of the stocks owned by this ETF do not make sense to me given the objective. 

SPDR® S&P Kensho New Economies ETF (KOMP-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate. 

Last 4 Dividend Payments: $.69 per share (rounded)

Yield at $65.89 = 1.1% rounded

Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/21

L. Pared SCM Again in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $14: 

Quote: Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)- an externally managed mini cap BDC

Website: Stellus Capital

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/21 The quarterly 10-Q filings for BDCs will contain a list of investments and the valuations placed on those investments. The SCM list starts at page 6. 

Last Substantive Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 SCM at $7.41 in Fidelity Account (8/15/20 Post); Item # 3.J. Added 10 SCM at $7.85; 5 at $7.65; 10 at $7.5 (7/18/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Added 10 SCM at $7.8; 2 at $6.26, 3 at $5.30; 5 at $7.53 (5/9/20 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $30.75 (11/2/21 sale only)

New Average Cost per share this account: $7.35 (50 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 11/2 after pare 

Dividend: Monthly at $.0933 per share or $1.12 annually (regular only)

The penny rate was raised from $.09 effective for the current quarter. 

Special dividends were paid in 2021 and will be paid during the 2022 first quarter. Stellus Capital Investment Corporation Declares Additional Monthly Dividend of an aggregate of $0.06 Per Share to be Paid in the First Quarter of 2022 

Yield at new AC this account =  15.24% 

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/21

Net Asset value per share history: 

9/30/21:    $14.15 

6/30/21:    $14.07

3/31/21:    $14.03  10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 at page 3 

12/31/20:  $14.03   10-K at page 74 
12/31/19:   $14.14
12/31/18:   $14.09
12/31/17:   $13.81
12/31/16    $13.69
12/31/15:   $13.19
12/31/14:   $13.94
12/31/13:   $14.54

November 2012: IPO at $15 ($14.46 after underwriters discount)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): Stellus Capital Investment Corporation Reports Results for its Third Fiscal Quarter Ended September 30, 2021, Highlighted by an Increase in its Regular Quarterly Dividend to $0.28 per Share

NII per share: $.21 based on net investment income of $4.1M. 

Core NII per share = $.31 (excludes accrued, but not yet paid, incentive fees to the external manager). 

Net Asset Value per share = $14.15 

Realized gains and losses are not factored into the NII calculation. For the Q/E 9/30/21, SCM had a net realized gain of $7.921M or about $.406 per share based on 19,486,003 shares. 

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 8.558 SCM shares at $13.19 (8/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.73); Item # 2.G. Pared SCM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 10 at $13.2 (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.33); Item # 1.C. Pared SCM in Fidelity Taxable -Sold 13 at $12.46 and 13+ at $13.25 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.04); Item # 1.F. Pared SCM in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $11.08 and Item #1.G. Pared SCM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $11.17 (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshots = $14.23); Item # 3 Sold 50 SCM at $13.72 (9/21/19 Post)(eliminating position as of that date; profit snapshot = $3.75); Item # 1.I. Sold 20 SCM at $7.61 (8/22/20 Post)(contains snapshots of prior trades; profit snapshot = $10.84); Item # 1.B. Sold 32+ SCM at $14.22-Used Commission Free Trade (2/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $78.09); Item # 1.A. Sold Highest Cost Lot-50 Shares at $12.63 (5/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.24); Item 2.B. Sold 100 SCM at $14.23 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$285.96); Item # 2 Sold 100 SCM at $13.02 (1/12/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $141.96) 

SCM Realized Gains to Date = $725.92 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

M. Added 3 COLB at $32: 

Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc.

I discussed this regional bank stock in my last post and have nothing further to add. Item # 2.D. Started COLB-Bought 2 at $34.93; 3 at $34.4; 2 at $33.95 (11/26/21 Post) 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

This stock sector was hit hard last Friday.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share

New AC  = $33.69 (10 shares)

Yield at new AC = 3.56%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/12/21    

N. Added to Lotto FBIO-Bought 5 at $2.6: 

Quote: Fortress Biotech Inc.

Highly speculative stocks will generally not fare well in volatile market conditions. 

I have nothing to add to my discussion contained in my last post. Item # 2.F. Bought 30 FBIO at $3.04 (11/26/21 Post) 

Current position: 35 shares at an AC of $2.97 per share. 

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket

The company does have several shots on goal and I discussed a few in my last post. One is FBIO's 43% share of potential milestone payments that may be made by AZN arising from AZN's acquisition of Caeleum Biosciences.  AstraZeneca to fully acquire Caelum Biosciences; Fortress Biotech Announces Closing of Acquisition of Caelum Biosciences by AZN

At yesterday's closing price of $2.65, the market cap is about $265M. 

O. Bought 10 CODX at $8.55: 

Quote: Co-Diagnostics Inc.

CODX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. - Investor Relations

Products | Co-Diagnostics, Inc.

2020 Annual Report

10 -Q for the Q/E 9/30/21

3rd Q Earnings Report: SEC Filed Press Release

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket

This is another stock that I discussed in my last post. I mentioned there that I was done fooling with it. Item # 2.M. Eliminated CODX in 3 Accounts (11/26/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $84.67) 

This purchase was made yesterday, partially in response to a 8% price decline. 

The other reason was that my gut informed me to change my opinion since the new omicron variant, and others yet to come, may extend the profit cycle of this firm's Covid testing business.  

I am playing with the house's money, since my realized gains to date stand at $130.51. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.K. Bought 20 CODX at $8.92 (5/23/21)

Other Sell Discussion: Item # 2.J. Sold 25 CODX at $10.61 (8/12/21 Post)

3. Cash Flow into Fidelity Taxable Account on 12/1/21: 

The Tennessee municipal bonds referenced in the following snapshots are 5 bond lots except for the Sumner County GO, rated at AA+,  which is a 10 bond lot. 

Par value for the municipal bonds is $1,000. Those bonds trade in 5 bond lots. On a total portfolio basis, my average cost for my municipal bonds is below par value. 

Other municipal bond ratings: 

Johnson City GO: Aa2 Moody's

Knox County GO: Aa1 Moody's, AA+ S & P

Maryville GO: Aa2 Moody's 

Springfield GO: Aa3 Moody's 

Memphis Water: Aa1 Moody's, AAA S & P

For the corporate bonds, the Main Street Capital is a two SU bond lot. The other corporate bonds referenced in these snapshots are 1 bond lots. Of those bonds, the ones issued by Entergy Mississippi, Entergy Louisiana, and Energy Texas are first mortgage bonds while the others are senior unsecured debt obligations (Cintas, Duke Realty, Kimco, and Welltower)

The common and prefered stocks mentioned are small ball lots as are the ETFs. 

AIO, BWG, ERC, GDO, JQC, JRI,  and PPT are CEFs that pay monthly dividends.  

PFLT is a BDC that pays monthly dividends. 

BKH, ETR and WEC are utility holding companies. They pay dividends on a quarterly basis. 

QYLD and RYLD are covered call ETFs that pays monthly dividends.

CAG is a packaged food common stock. 

TFC is a super regional bank holding company. 

A small ball position in a 7.125% coupon non-cumulative equity preferred stock issued by a tiny bank holding company is included in the 3rd snapshot.  

These securities reflect a conservative, income oriented approach to asset allocations. 

Tennessee does not have a state income tax. There used to be a small tax only on certain dividend and interest payments which has been repealed. Tennessee municipal bond interest payments were exempt from that tax when it was in effect.  There has never been a state income tax on capital gains, stock profits, withdrawals from IRAs or on earned income. State taxes on gifts and estates have likewise been repealed. I have limited my municipal bond buying to Tennessee issuers since I am familiar with the territory, rather than to avoid a state tax. 

My largest dollar positions in Tennessee municipal bonds are in AAA rated issues including the Williamson County GOs, where I live, and Rutherford County Water bonds. In addition to Williamson County bonds being rated as AAA, two municipalities, Brentwood and Franklin,  located in that county, are also rated AAA. The state of Tennessee has a AAA rating as well.  

Finance | City of Brentwood

I am anticipating that optional calls at par value will start to accelerate in 2022. 

For example, I own 15 Montgomery County,TN. 3% GO bonds that mature on 4/1/27. 

The third party price reflected in the previous snapshot is hugging par value since the issuer has the optional right to call at par or or after 4/1/22. Preliminary Official Statement dated February at page 3 The current pricing near par value reflects a consensus opinion that the issuer will call at par on 4/1/22. I share that opinion. 

Now is not a good time for my vintage bonds to mature or be redeemed at par value. 3% tax free is better than .01% taxable paid by money market accounts. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.