Economy:
June New Residential Construction.pdf Privately owned housing starts last month were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.643M, a 6.3% increase from the downwardly revised May 2021 number and up 29.1% from June 2020. Those numbers include apartments. Single family home starts were up 28% Y-O-Y.
Chart: Sticky Price Consumer Price Index less Food and Energy-St. Louis Fed
Sticky-Price CPI - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ("The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—increased 3.5 percent (on an annualized basis) in June, following a 4.5 percent increase in May. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 2.7 percent.")
Chart: Median Consumer Price Index-St. Louis Fed
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends
Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends
OPEC, allies agree to fully end oil production cuts by September 2022 (7/18/21)
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says dollar 'doomed' over the long term
Taiwan Semiconductor's Earnings Raise Doubts Over Outlook | Barron's
Don't Give Up on Value Stocks. 10 That Can Beat the Market. | Barron's Notes that Yardeni found that the S & P 500's Growth Index has a forward P/E 11.7 points higher than the Value Index or almost 3 times greater than the average differential over the past decade.
iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (IHI) had a 6 for 1 stock split. I own shares but have not discussed my purchases here. (Sponsor's website: iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF | IHI, expense ratio at .42%)
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Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks:
Generally, bank earnings in the 2021 second quarter are benefiting from recapturing loan loss reserves taken in 2020. I just view that component of E.P.S. as meaning that earnings were not as bad as reported last year due to excessive loan loss reserves and are not as good as they appear now.
For most of the reports that I have reviewed, net interest margin ("NIM") has declined from the 2020 second quarter due to the FED's extremely abnormal monetary policies.
American Electric Power (AEP) Reports Strong Second-Quarter 2021 Earnings (Non-GAAP net income of $589.5M or $1.18 per share with the consensus at $1.133 per share per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.16; revenue at $3.8B; "reaffirmed its 2021 operating earnings guidance range of $4.55 to $4.75 per share.")
Avangrid (AGR)(Non-GAAP net income of $122M or $.35 per share, missing estimates due to May 2021 issuance of 78M shares; "Given its strong first half performance and its outlook for the remainder of the year, AVANGRID is increasing its 2021 U.S. GAAP and non-U.S. GAAP Adjusted Net Income outlook to $700-$765 and $730-$795 million, respectively. U.S. GAAP and non-U.S. GAAP earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.95-$2.14 per share and $2.04-$2.22 per share, respectively. Earnings per share used in the updated outlook reflect the May 2021 share issuance of approximately 78 million shares which increases AVANGRID's weighted average shares to 358 million for the full year 2021. The Company's previous earnings per share outlook assumed 309.5 million shares. In addition, these outlook ranges assume the close of the PNM Resources merger occurs at the end of 2021."; the stock was sold at $51.4 per share to a wholly owned subsidiary of the Qatar Investment Authority and to AGR's majority shareholder Iberdrola- 8-K)
BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP) Earns $8.1 Million in Second Quarter (net income of $8.1M; E.P.S. = $.45 with consensus at $.40; increased quarterly dividend by 2 cents to $.16 per share; efficiency ratio 48.9%; NIM = 3.47%; ROA = 1.12%; ROE = 12.6%; Coverage Ratio = 169%; NPL Ratio = .94%; tangible book value per share = $13.32)
Citizens Financial (CFG) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. of $1.44 with the consensus E.P.S. at $1.104 per Fidelity; net income $648M; efficiency ratio = 62%; NIM = 2.72%, down from 2.88% in the 2020 second quarter; ROTE = 17.5%; ROA = 1.41%; Charge off Ratio = .25%; NPL Ratio = .64%; Coverage Ratio = 267%; total capital ratio 13.5%; tangible book value per share = $33.95
First Horizon (FHN) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $295M or $.53 per share; non-GAAP E.P.S. was $.58 which excludes 5 cents per share of items related to FHN's acquisition of Iberiabank; consensus E.P.S. at $.435 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.47%, down from 2.9% in the 2020 second quarter; net recoveries of .07%; adjusted ROTE = 22.2%; adjusted ROA = 1.54%; adjusted efficiency ratio = 59.17%; NPL Ratio = .61% total capital ratio = 13.21%)
F.N.B. Corp. (FNB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. of $.31 with the consensus at $.288 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.7%, down from 2.88% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio = 56.83%; ROE = 8.14%; ROTE = 15.85%; ROA = 1.01%; NPL Ratio = .51%; coverage ratio 278.2%; Charge off ratio = .06%; tangible book value per share = $8.2)
Hope Bancorp (HOPE) Reports 2021 Second Quarter Financial Results (net income of $53.8M or $.43 per share; consensus at $.382 per share per Fidelity; NIM = 3.11%, up from 2.79%; efficiency ratio = 53.12%, up from 55.27% in the 2020 second quarter; ROA= 1.25%; ROE 10.41% ROTE =13.5%; Charge off ratio = .35%; Coverage Ratio = 113.36%; NPL Ratio = 1.24% (high); total risk based capital ratio = 13.16%)
IBM Reports 2021 Second-Quarter Results {GAAP E.P.S. continuing operations = $1.47; operating E.P.S. = $2.33 beating the consensus estimate of $2.29 per Fidelity; revenues up 3% to $18.7B but flat adjusted for divested businesses and currency; free cash flow - $1B; "GAAP earnings per share results include a ($1.58) per-share impact for charges related to amortization of purchased intangible assets and other acquisition-related charges, retirement-related charges, U.S. tax reform enactment impacts, and transaction costs associated with the Kyndryl separation. The impact of the Kyndryl separation costs was ($0.20) per share." I am down to 9 shares with an AC of $106.37 per share, see Item # 2.M. Sold 1 IBM at $151.33}
KeyCorp (KEY) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $698M or $.72 per share with the consensus at $.72 per share; NIM 2.52%, down from 2.76% in the 2020 second quarter; ROTE = 22.34%; ROE = 18.34%; ROA = 1.64%; Charge 0ff ratio = .09%; Coverage Ratio = 175.8%; NPL Ratio = .69%; total capital ratio 123.2%)
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Announces Second Quarter Results (GAAP net income of $458M or $3.41 per share includes $.02 per share in merger related expenses; consensus E.P.S. at $3.616 per Fidelity; ROA = 1.22%; ROE = 11.55%; ROTE = 16.68%; NIM = 2.77%, down from 3.13% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio = 58.4%; Charge off ratio = .19%; NPL Ratio = 2.31%, up from 1.18% in the 2020 second quarter). I have changed my opinion to negative based primarily on the extremely high and growing NPL ratio which calls into question management's competence. This is the worst regional bank report that I have reviewed so far. MTB will soon be acquiring PBCT, which I also own. PBCT reported a NPL ratio of .79% for the 2021 second quarter. People's United Financial Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $170.8 Million, or $0.39 per Common Share
Seagate Technology (STX) Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Financial Results (GAAP E.P.S. $2.07; Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $2 beating the consensus of $1.84; revenues up 20% to $3B; company bought back 2.6M shares in the quarter; free cash flow of $354M for the quarter; 2021 F/Y ending 7/2/21 GAAP E.P.S. $5.36 with Non-GAAP at $5.64 compares to $4.95 in F/Y 2020; Non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance for the 2022 fiscal first quarter is $2.20 plus or minus 15 cents; declared quarterly dividend of $.67 per share)
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Trump PAC has not used any of the $75M its raised this year to help fund election audits: report | TheHill; Trump’s PAC collected $75 million this year, but so far the group has not put money into pushing for the 2020 ballot reviews he touts - The Washington Post Just another scam by Don the Con.
Debunking Trump's Latest Arizona Election Claims - FactCheck.org Donald is incapable of being truthful.
Several Arizona Republicans continue to make false claims in furtherance of their brazenly bogus audit of the November 2020 Maricopa County election results. This is to be expected from them. Fact check: Arizona audit chief baselessly raises suspicion about 74,000 ballots; Arizona GOP Official Slams Cyber Ninjas' 'Simply Not Accurate' Election Numbers; Arizona election auditors say they don't have enough information to finish report - CBS News; The Republicans are trying to prevent any independent scrutiny of what they are doing. Arizona's Bizarre Election Audit Likely Can't Keep Documents Secret, Judge Rules I would note that the Maricopa Election Board of Supervisors has 5 members and 4 of them are Republicans. Those republicans signed off on the validity of the reported results. GOP-dominated Arizona board of supervisors call for end to election audit - CBS News
Trump attacks Republican who has criticized Arizona audit | TheHill
Republican Arizona State Senator Wendy Rogers (R) Calls for New Election, Says Biden Electors Must Be Recalled The idea is to keep holding elections until Donald wins.
More Trump Election Distortions - FactCheck.org This is to be expected from the sociopathic leader of America's anti-democracy party.
Trump Supporter: Capitol Rioters 'There to Overthrow the Government': Book The Republicans who stormed the Capitol knew that Congress had convened to receive the certified election results and wanted at a minimum to disrupt the Constitutional process confirming Biden as the next President.
Florida man gets 8 months in prison in 1st felony sentence from Capitol riot The felony is obstructing an official proceeding which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.
“You’re Gonna Have a Fucking War”: Mark Milley’s Fight to Stop Trump from Striking Iran | The New Yorker; Top U.S. general feared Trump would attempt coup after election loss, new book says - CBS News
A Republican's unwillingness to accept Trump's Big Election Lie will lead to ouster from party positions. Jason Roe, Michigan GOP official critical of Trump, resigns from executive director post - The Washington Post A refusal to lie is not permitted in Trump's party since lying all of the time about almost everything is Trump's new "conservative" value.
Vaccine hesitancy becomes vaccine hostility as opposition to shots hardens - The Washington Post
How Republican Coronavirus Vaccine Opposition Got to This Point - The New York Times 47% of Republicans said in a recent poll that they were not likely to get vaccinated. Post-ABC poll finds Biden popular but Republicans resisting the coronavirus vaccine. - The Washington Post In TrumpWorld, it is Biden's fault that they refused to be vaccinated.
Details of what happened on Jan. 6 : ‘I Alone Can Fix It’ book excerpt - The Washington Post This is an excerpt from this recently published book: I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump's Catastrophic Final Year The book has almost a minute by minute account of what happened on 1/6/21.
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1. Added 100 AX.UN:CA at C$11.53:
Quote: Artis Real Estate Investment Trust - A Canadian REIT that owns property located in Canada and the U.S. Portfolio Map – Artis REIT
Website: Artis REIT
Artis has been selling properties with the most recent transaction being the disposition of 26 properties in the Greater Toronto Area, raising C$696.7M. Two additional industrial properties in that geographic area will soon by sold for C$53.3M in gross proceeds. "The total sale price for the portfolio of $750.0 million represents a price per square foot of $297. After adjusting for one outstanding mortgage of approximately $15.2 million and anticipated closing costs, the transaction will generate total net proceeds of approximately $734 million, exceeding the REIT's most recently reported International Financial Reporting Standards fair value of $550.7 million by 36.2%." Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Closes the Sale of GTA Industrial Portfolio
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I currently own 200 shares of the CAD price units.
My last trade was to sell all of my ARESF units. Item # 1 Eliminated ARESF-Sold 280 at US$8.51 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $77.08)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05 per share
Distribution History – Artis REIT
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Announces Monthly Cash Distribution
Yield at C$11.54 TC = 5.2%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases First Quarter Results and Q1-21 MDA:
Portfolio Dispositions 1st quarter:
Last Round-Trips on CAD priced units: Item # 3.A. Pared Artis REIT: Sold 200 AX-UN.CA at C$12.94 (3/8/17 Post); Item # 1 Sold 300 AX-UN:CA at C$15.71 (9/26/14 Post)
Other Material Recent News: Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Enters Into Agreement with Sandpiper Asset Management Inc.
2. Small Ball:
A. Added to CET in Schwab Account-Bought 2 at $42.07:
Quote: Central Securities Corp
Sponsor's website: Central Securities Corporation
SEC Filing-Holdings as of 3/31/21
Largest Investments as of 12/31/2020:
As explained in a 7/2/21 comment, this purchase resulted from a brain malfunction.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Started CEF in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $32.03 (1/16/21 Post) I still own those shares. As previously discussed, the largest holding is in the private company Plymouth Rock that had a cost basis of $710+K and an estimated market value of $241.604M as of 3/31/21. CET sells shares back to Plymouth Rock from time to time.
Schwab Account Position: 7 shares with an average cost of $34.83 per share.
Data as of 6/30/21 (updated weekly):
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $50.17
Closing Market Price: $42.19
Discount: -15.91%
Average 5 year discount: -17.28%
Sourced: CET-CEF Connect
B. Started AFIN in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 20 at $8.38; 5 at $8.16; 5 at $8:
Quote: American Finance Trust, Inc. Cl A (AFIN)-Externally Managed REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Bought 50 AFIN at $9; 10 at $8.3-Fidelity Taxable (7/2/21 Post) I have nothing substantive to add to that recent discussion.
AC this Account: $8.28 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)
Yield at $8.28 = 10.27%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/21
In this Vanguard account, I owned 20 of the 30 shares on the ex dividend date and received a cash dividend of $4.25:
C. Pared GDO in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 10+ at $18.62:
Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)-A Leveraged Bond CEF that will liquidate on or about 12/2/24.
Sponsor's Website: WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.
Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)-SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the period ending 4/30/21 (cost $344.255+M/Value then at $384.164+M)
Leverage Details as of 4/30/21:
Profit Snapshot: +$16.47
New AC per share this Account: $15.12 (56+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 7/1/21 after pare |
The average cost per share was reduced from $15.42.
Snapshot Intraday 7/1 before pare |
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)
Yield at $15.12 = 8.02%
Data Date of 7/2/21 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $18.67
Closing Market Price: $18.62
Discount: -.27% (7/2/21 NAV per share and $18.62 closing price)
Average 5 Year Discount. = -6.59%
Sourced: GDO-CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains snapshot of prior trades)
Recent Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 GDO at $16.72 in Schwab Taxable Account (11/7/2020 Post)(I still own that 100 share lot); Item # 2.A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6: 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4 (4/11/20 Post)
D. Bought 1 LGND at $119.5:
Quote: Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Ligand "is a revenue-generating biopharmaceutical company focused on developing or acquiring technologies that help pharmaceutical companies discover and develop medicines. Our business model creates value for stockholders by providing a diversified portfolio of biotech and pharmaceutical product revenue streams that are supported by an efficient and low corporate cost structure. . . . We partner with other pharmaceutical companies to leverage what they do best (late-stage development, regulatory management and commercialization) to ultimately generate our revenue. Ligand’s OmniAb® technology platform is a patent-protected transgenic animal platform used in the discovery of fully human mono- and bispecific therapeutic antibodies. The Captisol platform technology is a patent-protected, chemically modified cyclodextrin with a structure designed to optimize the solubility and stability of drugs. Ligand’s Protein Expression Technology is a robust, validated, cost-effective and scalable platform for recombinant protein production, and is especially well-suited for complex, large-scale protein production where traditional systems are not suitable. Ab Initio™ technology and services for the design and preparation of customized antigens enable the successful discovery of therapeutic antibodies against difficult-to-access cellular targets. Ligand has established multiple alliances, licenses and other business relationships with the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies including Amgen, Merck, Pfizer, Sanofi, Janssen, Takeda, Servier, Gilead Sciences and Baxter International."
"Israel says Pfizer Covid vaccine is just 39% effective as delta spreads, but still prevents severe illness"
ReplyDeleteThis data is much lower than what others have reported and substantially lower than the 64% effective rate last reported 2 weeks ago by Israel.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html
Pfizer Vaccine-Delta Variant:
88% effective against hospitalizations
91% effective against severe illness
I do not find those numbers to be entirely comforting.
The NYT has the infection increase at 180% over the past 14 days through yesterday.
Now down to 39%? I don't understand why the USA data seems so different. UK's is like Israel's.
DeleteI don't find any of this comforting either.
We're doing our family vacation in a couple weeks. At a standalone house near a lake. There was a friend-family visiting my sister's family overnight for several days with only 1 week buffer till our vacation. They are antivaxxers (on the earthy crunchy left). They agreed to test for covid before coming. But IMO the tests aren't 100%, so are only so-so useful for this situation.
I don't know if a week is enough buffer. I am relieved they couldn't make the trip. My sister is too, so she doesn't have to decide what to do.
Land: Israel claims that the Pfizer vaccine is 39% effective against contracting the Delta variant.
DeleteI suspect that the Delta variant is spreading among those who have been vaccinated at far higher levels than currently known.
One reason is that vaccinated people view themselves as existing within an impervious shield which is not the case. Consequently, they are not likely to be tested even with mild symptoms.
There is a story in the NYT today about a Doctor who finally decided to have her wedding indoors. 15 vaccinated people became infected. The Doctor believes that those vaccinated attendees became infected when going unmashed in bars shortly before the wedding.
The bottom line is that we do not know within a reasonable range how effective the vaccines are in preventing Delta variant infections.
Good points. That lack of USA testing would explain the difference from a place that's testing as part of determined protocol, not whims of people.
DeleteUnreal, decided to do it indoors, and is now part of the spreading. Hopefully all will be mild cases.
Bought 15 INTC. AMD and other stocks are considered the better buy here. But this has more room to grow. The earnings report wasn't bad. It's forward guidance isn't dancing in the streets. But I'm not betting on INTC disappearing into oblivion here. They are investing in new development. Div date coming 8/5 for 2.5%.
ReplyDeleteI had 1 stock as a hold before.
Also put in order for CRSP at 120. It won't fill. I missed that price earlier today.
But the chart looks like a little more breakdown is very likely. So I'll be cautious and watch some more.
SPCE gets my attention as a gamble trading play. Not buying yet.
I need to go through some of these articles and ETFs and see what else I might want to be buying.
INTC at 52.46
DeleteLand: My Right Brain wants me to buy more CRSP when and if the price goes below $100 again.
DeleteThe gene editing stocks spiked higher after Intellia (NTLA) reported some success. NTLA hit a high of $202.73 on 6/30/21 and is now back down to $137.17, falling $10.17 today.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTLA/history?p=NTLA
No one really has a fact based opinion on what these companies are worth since the technology is still in its infancy.
My approach is to have some exposure but not to get caught up in the maniacal swings. I did sell some EDIT into the parabola. I have not sold any CRSP shares.
As I mentioned earlier, CRSP may be worth in 5 to 10 years $10 or $1,000 or somewhere in between or maybe more or even less than those parameters.
CRSP is definitely a buy below $100. I missed that window and grrr at myself. The chart looks good there, no matter the long term results.
DeleteDefinitely a lottery purchase. I'm sure the technology will be used. But you can't tell early on by which company and in which way.
I didn't realize NTLA's come back down so far from the report spike. Will keep an eye on it too. (It's on the same watch list.)
I have almost no exposure to Chinese stocks. Almost all of exposure was 57+ shares in the Matthews China Dividend Fund (MCDFX). I eliminated that position last week, realizing a gain of $279.17 on a $884 cost basis.
ReplyDeleteLast Discussion: May 30, 2020 Post
Item # 2.M. Added $100 MCDFX at $15.4:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/05/angl-bab-brg-ebiz-fax-fbiox-good-hban.html
Last Elimination: Item # 3
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_12.html
As noted therein, the largest gain was $821.23 from a 204+ shares sold in 2015.
China has become to messy for me. There is really no legal protection for shareholders since the judiciary is not independent and the government can and will do whatever it wants to do with no effective restraint.
With potential delisting possible in the U.S. and the recent Chinese government crackdown, I simply do not want to be involved at the present time. I have now bought and eliminated this mutual fund 3 times and will consider buying back shares when the dust clears.
I noted today that China has cracked down on what I would call a clearly anticompetitive practice involving exclusive music licenses granted to Tencent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/24/china-crackdown-antitrust-regulator-orders-tencent-music-to-give-up-music-label-rights.html
That would never have been allowed in the U.S. It would be like Spotify having the exclusive right to broadcast music in the U.S.
Another risk is described here:
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/04/the-risky-business-of-investing-in-chinese-tech-firms/
The stocks were doing well, but the SWAN factor is definitely iffy with them.
DeleteAfter some of this blows over, if I can time it while they're still down I may get some BABA. But as a hold and sell when up... not a hold forever.
Land: I have bought and eliminated MCDFX 3 times starting in 2015. While the investment climate in China and Russia is better than say Venezuela, there is considerable country risk in owning stocks based in all three IMO. The ultimate source of that risk is authoritarian governments and the resulting lack of legal protections for shareholders and companies.
DeleteAnother abrupt change in China’s policy will crush the for profit education sector.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-confirms-for-profit-tutoring-core-school-subjects-is-barred-xinhua-2021-07-24/
This change is understandable since China is facing a huge demographic crisis that will undermine its future growth. That crisis has its genesis in the one child policy that went into effect in 1979 and was not formally ended for all couples until October 2015. The limit starting in 2015 was two children but that has not favorably impacted the unfavorable aging demographic, so China just changed the policy to 3 children. But one problem is that most Chinese couples can not afford to raise 2 children, let alone 3.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html
So the demographic problem of an aging population is most likely irremediable. Russia has the same problem for different reasons.
There will be too few workers to support an aging population and old people generally spend far less. China is already losing its advantage as a low cost manufacture due in part to rising wages compared to other developing countries and its banking system is loaded with non-performing loans.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/china-economy-charts-show-how-much-debt-has-grown.html
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3084979/china-debt-how-big-it-who-owns-it-and-what-next
I suspect that the debt outstanding to GDP and problem loans are far greater than reported by China due in part to its shadow banking system and overall lack of transparency.
The news about China's revised policies impacting private education companies was known to market participants last Friday.
DeleteAnd this is what happened:
TAL Education Group (TAL)
$6.00 -$14.52 (-70.76%)
At close: July 23
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TAL?p=TAL&.tsrc=fin-srch
New Oriental Education & Technology Group
Inc. (EDU)
$2.9300 -$3.4700 (-54.22%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EDU?p=EDU&.tsrc=fin-srch
I would also note that the U.S. has already delisted China's 3 telecom stocks.
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/three-chinese-telecom-companies-be-delisted-by-nyse-2021-05-07/
Something about China and private education (free thought) seems contradictory.
DeleteThere's that added issue you point out, that the policy risk on China can come from the USA as well.
Same is true with any foreign stock market (some with more risk than others, ex Canada vs Turkey)
LMT is down 3% on a solid earnings beat, and some guidance raise?
ReplyDeleteBarron's article explains:
""We would imagine that investors had been expecting the usual 'beat and raise' performance for 2Q, and so today's inline result with no change to the operating guidance is likely to prove a disappointment.""
So it'd down 3% for performing to above expectations levels because those levels are now expected?
Article points out it's up 7% this year, while SnP is up 17%.
So I guess I've been losing out by hanging out in LMT.
I have a full position, so would buy more only to trade.
Land: I suspect the Stock Jocks are reacting to this sentence in the LMT earnings press release:
Delete"Second quarter 2021 net earnings include a loss of $225 million ($169 million, or $0.61 per share, after tax), recorded at Aeronautics, related to performance issues experienced on a classified program."
This may be related to the F-35 fighter jet:
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/06/12/the-pentagon-is-battling-the-clock-to-fix-serious-unreported-f-35-problems/
Thanks. The article mentioned that as a one time write up, that typically doesn't repeat. And didn't cite it as reason why investors are bringing the stock down.
DeleteI'll keep an eye on articles. If that's if, okay no big deal and not reason to buy this tiny dip either.
But if it's just lack of beating already high expectations... that reflects on a market mood that's worth noting.
Land: I doubt that the analysts included that $.61 per share charge in their earnings estimates. If that is the case, LMT blew past the consensus estimate.
DeleteThe issue is not so much whether this is a one time charge, which it may or may not be, but whether the Defense Department with cancel the F-35 program or pull back significantly on future purchases. I am assuming that the charge is related to that program. Maybe some light will be shed on the earnings call.
Hum, that makes sense. Could be a investor expectation that the F-35 sales will be pulled back, and generally make the company worth less than it was.
DeleteIt's already down from the all time highs during the last year.
I've been waiting to hear what happens to the Abraham Accords and sales of F-35s that were promised for them, but really not in line with USA usual policies (of selling high end stuff to those particular "allies"). (I don't know how much they're allies to begin with.)
There hasn't been a formal announcement of scuttling the F35 sales. There was some admin murmur of reassessing the sales. I thought that was already in the prior coming off ATHs. But, this may be seen as a tea leave reading of where the program is going... rather than a one time charge off answer that it's already gone there (to not doing all or some of the promised sales).
The Accords themselves were already signed in public ceremonies based on *only* the promises which weren't worded as commitments. I've assumed the Arab states knew the likelihoods of a shift in follow through, and wanted the opportunity excuse to sign. I don't see the Accords unraveling.
But did figure my LMT might stop rallying so well :(.
Does leave an interesting question:
DeleteWould I be better off in a LMT with it's 7% gain, and 2.5% divs... or in the SnP with it's higher growth but lower divs?
Depends on one's goals I'd assume.
Land: I have read the earnings call transcript and the company is just not providing enough information about the charge. I can not say whether it has anything to do with the F-35 or some new version of that fighter jet. The charge was taken in the Aeronautics business area.
Delete"While the classified nature of this program precludes us from discussing this matter in depth, we can say that our customer is highly attracted to the capabilities that we are developing on their behalf, that we're committed to delivering these capabilities and that the long-term potential of this solution is significant for the company."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/07/26/lockheed-martin-corporation-lmt-q2-2021-earnings-c/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
There is not enough here for me to abandon my small ball position (2.403 shares with an average cost per share of $337.36). I will need a price below my lowest purchase price which is $322 to buy more however.
Lol I got offered a job like that.
Delete"It's classified so we can't tell you anything, but would you like to join our wonderful opportunity to develop your capabilities. We can't tell you what tools, what language, or what you'll be developing. Only that it's for DOD, can't say which branch of the military. But it's super exciting. /BIG GRIN/"
I didn't take the job behind the mystery door. I can imagine the mystery rattling investors. I would think it wouldn't, if in a healthy rally environment. That's is because it's part of the general iffy feeling in the market.
I was looking for lower too. Even $343 would get my interest if the market's generally rallying. If I remember, that's where it pulled back to the last time it did.
The ten year treasury yield is currently at 1.236%, down 6.1 basis points.
ReplyDeleteThe decline in contributing to my utility stocks bucking the downtrend today.
Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF
$43.11 +$0.67 +1.58%
Last Updated: Jul 27, 2021 1:14 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/futy?mod=over_search
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
$106.47 +$1.89 (+1.81%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DUK?p=DUK
NASDAQ Composite Index
14,506.95 -333.76 -2.25%
I would attribute the price movements today to bad vibes coming out of China and more importantly to a significant uptick in Covid infections.
I am not going out on limb too far when I say that the Stock Jocks find something unpleasant to them in the report today from my Lotto Infinity Pharmaceuticals discussed in this post:
Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INFI)
$1.5450 -$0.6750 (-30.41%)
As of 1:30PM EDT.
At the moment, my 30 share lotto is down 44.57% or $37.28. I have not had to hook myself up to a chill juice IV and am handling the unrealized loss in stride without the aid of pharmaceuticals.
I just bought another 5 shares at $1.55 so I will pay for that lot by eating a baked potato and 2 ears of corn tonight rather than something more extravagant.
I am guessing that the decline has more to do with INFI increasing its ATM capacity to $70M from $20M rather than the update on its only drug
Eganelisib in 2 trials, though that is a guess. Selling a lot more stocks in the $1 to $2 range is far from optimal.
https://investors.infi.com/news-releases/news-release-details/infinity-pharmaceuticals-presents-updated-data-phase-2-mario-275
It's a good thing you don't need pharmaceuticals to handle this gargantuan loss, because the market says this company isn't good for them!
DeleteWhat makes infinity interesting as a lottery buy?
Now that it's down, I may want to invest a few dollars. I'm going to still have steak with my corn and baked potato if I do.
So far I gather a bunch of complicated stuff about breast cancer.
I don't understand what it means that ATM
capacity is increased. Googling ATM capacities still brings up lots of info about ATM machines. Who knew you could invest in those?
If it's that they are raising money, that speaks to not having planned out well? Or not being able to get funds from private investors who are vetting them?
I love this new investment world where I can consider buying $30 or $100 of stock, without an $8 or $6 fee.
DeleteI'm on a PI3K inhibitor too! Very different though. The ones for my condition are considered high risk of adverse events, except the particular new one I'm trying is better. But looking at the research, the Infinity's PI3K isn't having problems with adverse events. (Assuming I read that accurately, which is not always a good assumption). Doubling survival is an excellent result from about 7 to about 15months.
DeleteSo I'd agree that the study results are the reason for the sell off.
Land: When a company grants a broker thea authority to sell its stock in the market, it is using that process as an ATM machine.
DeleteThe letters stand for "at-the-market" offerings.
This is not a public offering at a set price, where underwriters sell stock all at once, but selling stock at a variable price when the broker chooses to sell the shares. So there is a constant stream of stock being sold over time.
The new ATM authority given by INFI to its broker authorizes the sale of up to $75M in stock from the prior authorization of $20M.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001113148/000114036121025691/nt10024341x2_424b5.htm
The problem with these tiny clinical stage drug companies, who have one shot, is that they frequently end up selling so much stock that the ownership interest becomes so diluted before even a NDA is filed with the FDA, let alone approved, and then the company has no salesforce to market the drug. Adding that capability further erodes the profit potential. The best option for a company like INFI is to sell itself with a contingent value right for each approved indication.
The stock was at $.80 last August and started an uptrend in November that peaked at almost $6. So I would compare the trial results released during that time frame with what was released today.
Before I throw caution to the wind, and buy another 10 shares, I will want to see whether anyone, who is knowledgeable and I am not on science and medical matters, found something wrong with the trial results released today.
So that's why ATM machine was coming up even when I tried keywords like "stock." That's good to know about that process. 2 1/2 times is huge increase.
DeleteThere was that investor on SA who liked to dig into biotech drugs? Maybe a resource?
If I see anything in that when I read it again later. I didn't on this pass.
This paragraph is what I focused on:
"MARIO-3 did not demonstrate any new or additive safety signals compared to benchmark trials. The most common TEAEs, all causality, were nausea (51.2%), fatigue (48.8%), alopecia (32.6%), diarrhea (32.6%), rash maculo-papular (30.2%) increased ALT (27.9%) with only one Grade 4 and increased AST (25.6%) with one grade 4. No Hy’s Law or Grade 5 hepatic AEs were reported, and only one patient permanently discontinued study treatment due to an elevated liver function test. "
The AEs - adverse events - are a big deal in how a drug will be received.
Survival increased in all cases.
So question would be if the specific numbers were considerably worse than the prior releases... or compared to similar drugs being offered. Otherwise, these look good on their own.
What I've learned in the last year:
DeleteThe grade of the AE (adverse event) is what matters. There's lots of 1, 2 and 3 events. But most are managable.
But Grade 4 and 5, are sometimes manageable but always eye catching to doctors. (They run into risk of death or serious complications if not managed and you stay on the drug.)
This has a low rate of 4, 5. And only 1 patient discontinued. That's a low rate of discontinue (vs studies I've been reading on various drugs of this nature.)
Land: Grading for Adverse Events
Deletehttps://ctep.cancer.gov/protocoldevelopment/electronic_applications/docs/ctcae_v5_quick_reference_8.5x11.pdf
Some common symptoms like diarrhea can be categorized as Grade 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 depending on the severity (page 25).
Grade 5 is death.
Grade 4 is life threatening consequences, urgent operative intervention indicated. There was one grade 4 that involved the liver of 1 patient who was taken off the drug.
I would think that nausea, fatigue, alopecia (hair loss) and diarrhea are fairly common adverse events for cancer therapies and would not disqualify INFI's drug as a treatment particularly when there is a clear benefit.
The drug appears to be more beneficial on PFS when combined with Opdivo for the treatment of advanced urothelial cancer (Mario 275) than when combined with with atezolizumab, also known as Tecentriq®, and nab-paclitaxel, also known as Abraxane® for treating triple negative breast cancer (Mario 3), with the most pronounced PFS benefit being in PD-L1(+) tumor patients which was 7.5 to 11.2 months. The 5.6 to 7.3 months was in the PD-L1(-) tumors
Maybe the Stock Jocks were hoping for better results in the breast cancer trial. That would be my second guess on what contributed to the 31.35% decline today.
If there are other drugs for the niche with better results, that could cause a decline. I know zilch about the breast cancer drugs.
DeleteYep, the Grade 1, 2, and various symptoms like hair loss are not considered a problem(by doctors). Grade 3 is warming up to be one. I didn't realize grade 5 is death. Went back to the drug sheet, and no wonder they say to lower dosage at Grade 3 or 4, but there's no 5 there. Noticed they carefully never mention that, on literature the patient will see.
Diarrhea can be mild to life threatening. Words like "impressively explosive" from the NIH nurse. In the P3IKs, there's been a problem with colitis. There's been events that lasted after the drug was stopped, that really worried a few of my doctors on why they wouldn't go with an earlier P3iK. I have the name written down somewhere, but never did fully grasp what condition they meant. But then same doctors said everything resolves when you stop it. A lot can be managed by being proactively aware at the earlier onset of conditions. (Mine tested as not having the same adverse event profile as the earlier ones.)
The drug combining is the new hip trend. The word 'synergy' comes up a lot.
Those are good details on what it works on and with. I don't have any info on that.
MMM down just .6% on a beat!
ReplyDeleteMasks back on, market's green.
Is contrary like this, similar to other times in history? Indicators of a spooked market that doesn't know it yet?
Land: I never got going on MMM and have eliminated my 1+ share position at $202.56.
DeleteI have written up a discussion that will be published in my next post.
I viewed a $200+ MMM price to be within my sell range regardless of whether I owned 1 share or 1,000. My concern has nothing to do with the recent earnings report but potentially substantially under reserved liability costs, particularly relating to PFAS chemicals.
The slight decline in response to better than expected earnings was MMM's observation that inflation will erode margins and profits going forward.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/3m-chief-talks-inflation-we-explore-ways-to-invest-51622743855
So MMM talks inflation and it matters? So whoever thinks so should be selling other stocks too.
DeleteThere's an overall pattern that I'm noticing for the market. No idea if I"m just over analyzing.
I decided a while ago to keep even with the liablity, while it's in rally mood overall. I tend to sell as my stocks break even and then watch them climb. So was trying not to do that. Let it get into profit range and get out.
DeleteInfinity Pharmaceuticals Inc.
ReplyDelete$2.1686 +$0.6775 +44.57%
Last Updated: Jul 28, 2021 at 9:34 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/infi?mod=over_search
The only new news is that the analysts for Jones Trading and B. Riley kept their buy ratings with a $12 and $4 price targets respectively. Those 2 firms are the ones implementing the ATM program so that is one reason IMO to ignore them.
I would guess that the drugs used in the comparative benchmarks, Opdivo and Tecentriq, are widely used as the standard of care for the the two cancers.
+++
Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
$14.06 $1.06 +8.14%
Last Updated: Jul 28, 2021 at 9:36 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/isbc?mod=over_search
Investors Bancorp agreed to be acquired by Citizens Financial (CFG) for stock and cash.
"Under the terms of the agreement and plan of merger, Investors shareholders will receive 0.297 of a share of CFG common stock and $1.46 in cash for each share of Investors they own."
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/citizens-financial-group-inc-announces-agreement-to-acquire-investors-bancorp-inc-301343023.html
I own both bank stocks as part of my regional bank basket strategy.
After paring my position, I currently own 30 ISBC shares in my Fidelity account with an average cost per share of $7.48.
Item # 2.E. Pared ISBC-Sold All Fractional Shares Bought with Dividends at $14.64:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/06/bamprsca-bamprtca-bxmx-cvx-fidi-irm.html
The current price is below that $14.64 sale's price and below the 52 week high of $15.71.
Goodness that made me gasp. That is the definition of fickle. Sadly I didn't invest $33 yesterday.
DeleteSmall $ per share; someone with funds spotted it so the price is up.
I do not have access to any brokerage reports on Infinity (INFI). Fidelity has a headline that Piper Sandler raised its PT to $8 from $7, maintaining an overweight rating. Another headline has B. Riley lowering its PT to $4 from $7 based on "Mixed Results, Uncertainty Uncertainty on Regulatory Path in Metastatic Urothelial Cancer". The PFS numbers for Urothelial cancer were better than for Breast Cancer so I have no idea what that analyst is talking about on the regulatory path.
Deletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113148/000111314821000018/infi_r-deventpresentatio.htm
INFI is currently up $.94 to $2.46, so I am almost back to breakeven after my 5 share average down yesterday at $1.55.
Nice that it's nearly back. I was assuming a few days to get in.
DeleteI see a positive report on urothelial cancer. There's a note of follow up with FDA. Maybe buried is some FDA worry.
I assumed regulatory path meant in the drug's actions. Maybe it means FDA's regulatory path.
So seems like the release of shares was the concern. But maybe now decided there's enough merit for the dilution not to be a problem.
But I have no idea.
Land: I do not have access to the B.Reily analyst report, but the reference to "regulatory path" could only mean path to FDA regulatory approval for marketing.
DeleteGiven the PFS increase when combined with Opdivo to 15.4 months from 7.9 months, and 54% of the patients with PD-L1(-) tumors receiving the eganelisib plus Opdivo combination remained alive, compared to 17% in the nivolumab control arm after 1 year, indicates to me that the drug needs to be approved soon.
Wells Fargo raised it rating to overweight from neutral and increased its PT to $14 from $4 according to a headline new items at Fidelity.
It is possible that the B. Riley analyst was one cause for the meltdown yesterday when investors called asking for his reaction.
The p3ki & similar btk's are regulatory pathways in cells. They regulate actions taken. That's what got me confused. But actually why would an analyst talk about that? They be talking about the FDA.
ReplyDeleteMost of the regional banks have been reporting Y-O-Y declines in their respective net interest margins. The largest increase in NIM that I have seen to date and can now recall comes from Brookline Bancorp (BRKL) which reported after the close today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/07/28/2270678/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Record-Second-Quarter-Results.html
NIM in the 2021 second quarter was reported at 3.52%, up from 3.09% in the 2020 second quarter.
E.P.S. was reported at $.40 with the consensus at $.313 per Fidelity. Charge off ratio was only .03%. Efficiency ratio was good at 49.3% (lower means more efficient)
I did not see an explanation for why NIM is expanding. Given the low rates for investment securities, NIM can be expanded by funding loans with the proceeds from those securities. I did not see that happening with BRKL as total loans declined Y-O-Y. The yield on loans did go up from the last quarter. The book yield on its owned securities was 1.77%:
P. 20
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1049782/000117184321005188/exh_992.htm
Deposit costs are low and will remain so for as long as the FED continues ZIRP. In the prior quarter, the bank increased its NIM to 3.39% based on paying 79 basis points less on its cost of funds, offset in part by a netted in part by a 66 basis point decrease in the interest paid on its earning assets to 3.8% (netting 13 basis points to NIM)
Page 47
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1049782/000104978221000027/brkl-20210331.htm
The yield on loans and investments rose 8 basis points to 3.87% in the 2nd quarter compared to the first.
Ford up 5% pre-hours based on earnings meet that is still considered better than expected.
ReplyDeleteNo mention of reinstating the div yet.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/07/acre-afin-akba-amcr-bp-bxmx-cpxpreca.html