ARGOPRA, CNCE, ELC, FULT, HBI, HOLX, HPPPRC, INTC, RYLD, SNY, TPVG, TRST

Economy: 

Jamie Dimon says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war

Many investors interpreted the April PCE price index report as a sign that inflation may have peaked this spring. Personal Income and Outlays, April 2022 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The annual core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index through April 2022 did fall to 4.9% from 5.2% through March. 

Including energy and food, the annual increase was at 6.3%, down from 6.6% in March but unchanged from the 6.3% annual increase through February. This index is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis which is part of the Commerce Department

I would note that the CPI index was up 8.3% over the same period. Consumer Price Index Summary The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Labor Department, computes CPI and provides details by expenditure category. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2022 M04 Results

I would not form a conclusion that inflation has peaked based on these price indexes, nor do they support an opinion that inflation is now turning the corner and will return to relatively benign, non-problematic levels within the next 12 to 18 months.

Goldman sees signs inflation is peaking, could be positive for stocks

German Inflation At Highest in Almost 50 Years | Morningstar

European Annual Rates of Inflation through April (+7.4% in Euro area; +8.1% in EU): 

Eurostat.pdf 

Home prices surged in March as interest rates also rose: S&P Case-Shiller The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 20.6% annually in March. 

+++++

Earnings Reports - Owned Stocks: 

Apollo Commercial Real Estate (ARI) SEC Filed Press Release (Distributable income = $49.5M; Distributable earnings per share = $.35 with the consensus at $.339 per Fidelity; Declared $.35 per share quarterly dividend, and  Slide Presentation)

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) SEC Filed Press Release (All amounts are in CADs; Net income of $2.747B or $2.16 per share, up from $1.88 in the 2021 first quarter; Adjusted E.P.S. of $2.18; Consensus at $1.96; ROE = 16.2%; Total capital ratio = 15%) 

Beazer Homes (BZH) SEC Filed Press Release (This report is for the second fiscal quarter ending on 3/31/22; Net income from continuing operations of $44.7M or $1.41 per share with the consensus at $1.037; "Homebuilding revenue of $507.2 million, down 7.3% on a 22.3% decrease in home closings to 1,078, partially offset by a 19.3% increase in average selling price to $470.5 thousand"; "Net new orders of 1,291, down 30.4% on a 9.2% decrease in average community count to 119 and a 23.4% decrease in orders/community/month to 3.6";  "Controlled lots of 23,516, up 24.7% from 18,851"; "Backlog dollar value of $1,583.5 million, up 14.2% on a 20.9% increase in average selling price of homes in backlog to $507.4 thousand, partially offset by a 5.5% decrease in backlog units to 3,121"; 6 month E.P.S. in current  fiscal year at $2.59) 

Dream Industrial (DIR.UN:CA) Q1 2022 (All $ amounts are in Canadian Dollars; FFO per unit = $.22; Net income per share = $1.71; Rental Income = $65.313M; Number of buildings = 358; Gross leasable square feet = 44.M; Occupancy = 97.6% in place with an additional 1.1% committed; weighted average lease term = 4.6 Years; Net asset value = $16.4) 

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $.29; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.32 with consensus at $.304 per Fidelity; non-GAAP excludes merger related expenses; NIM = 2.88%; Efficiency Ratio = 62.9%; NPL Ratio = .60%; NPA Ratio - .63%; Charge off ratio .07%; ROA = 1.05%; ROE = 10.4%; ROTE = 15.8%; Tangible Book value per share = $7.47; Total capital ratio = 13.03%)

Keycorp (KEY) SEC Filed Press Release (Numbers are from continuing operations; Net income at $420M or $.45 per share, with consensus at $.48; NIM = 2.46%, down from 2.61% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency ratio = 62.4%; NPL Ratio = .41%; NPA Ratio = .44%; Charge off ratio = .13%; Coverage ratio = 289.5%; ROA = .99%; ROE = 11.45%; ROTE = 14.12%; Total capital ratio = 12.5%; 993 branches)

International Paper (IP) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $95; Non-GAAP at $.76 with the consensus at $.515; revenues = $5.237B; Free cash flow of $403M, down from $423M in the 2021 first quarter; "Actively pursuing strategic options, including a sale of equity investment in Ilim Group",  International Paper announces it may sell stake in Russian Ilim Group) Having operations in Russia is no longer an option for a western company. 

MetLife (MET) SEC Filed Press Release (Adjusted E.P.S. at $2.08 with the consensus at $1.65; Reported E.P.S. at $.73)  

Northwest Healthcare Properties  (NWH.UN:CA)  Q1 2022 - Press Release (All $ amounts are in CADs; this is by far my largest Canadian REIT position; Adjusted funds from operations = $47.45M; AFFO per unit = $.21; Dividends paid monthly which is normal for Canadian REITs; Quarterly dividend total at $.20 per unit;  Revenue = $102.7M; 299 properties; Weighted average lease term = 14.9 years; Net asset value per share increased 15.4% Y-O-Y to $14.73)

Oneok (OKE) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $391.2M or $.87 per share with the consensus at $.887 per Fidelity; Adjusted EBITDA = $863.9M; Total revenues. = $5.444+B, up from $3.194+B in the 2021 first quarter)

Prudential Financial (PRU) SEC Filed Press Release (Operating income of $1.218B or $3.17 per share with the consensus at $2.7, but down from $3.99 in the year ago quarter; GAAP E.P.S. ($.10); "Net loss in the current quarter included $1.360 billion of pre-tax net realized investment losses and related charges and adjustments, largely reflecting the impacts of rising interest rates, and also $44 million of impairment and credit-related losses, $276 million of pre-tax losses from divested and run-off businesses, and $6 million of pre-tax losses related to market experience updates", emphasis supplied; Assets under management at $1.620 trillion versus $1.663 trillion for the year-ago quarter.)

Toronto Dominion (TD) SEC Filed Press Release (All amounts are in Canadian Dollars; this report is for the second fiscal quarter ending 4/30/22; Reported Net Income = $3.811B; Adjusted Net income = $3.714B; Adjusted E.P.S. = $2.o2, down from $2.04 but beating the consensus of $1.93; Adjusted Efficiency Ratio = 54.3%; Charge off Ratio = Net recovery of $27M; Adjusted ROE=  15.9%; Adjusted ROTE = 21.2%; Dividend Payout Ratio = 42.8%)

+++

My youngest nephew just married a woman of Ukrainian descent:

Her grandfather escaped from Ukraine as a young boy during what is known as the Holodomor, a period in the 1930s when Russia murdered several million Ukrainians through starvation. Her father became a M.D. and she is now in her residency having graduated from medical school. My nephew just completed the MBA program at Northwestern and will soon graduate from its medical school. 

Russia has turned much of Ukraine into rubble. More than a million Ukrainians will probably settle in the west and contribute to those democracies for many generations to come.  

Some pundits claim that Russia is trying to seize Ukraine's industrial heartland located mostly in the east. Russia is not seizing industrial plants but simply turning them into rubble. 

That was the case with the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol that Russia destroyed soon after invading Ukraine. 

Azovstal employed almost 11,000, mostly Russian speaking Ukrainians.  Maybe Russia will elect to rebuild that plant but it can build a new steel plant inside Russia. There is no shortage of land and good locations there. 

No purpose is served by destroying Azovstal and other Ukrainian plants and infrastructure other than to destroy Ukraine and to murder Ukrainians, destroy their homes and businesses, irrespective of the language spoken by them. 

Maybe Putin will turn that destroyed city into a vacation spot for his pals and build a nice place to dock his $700+M yacht for summer cruises. 

Russian MP Aleksey Zhuravlyov, Leader of the National Rodina Party, Says Europe Could Be 'Reduced to Ashes' in Fresh Nuclear Threat I think the Russians just need to collectively nail themselves to crosses, perhaps finding psychic satisfaction from the self-inflicted wounds, as an alternative to killing everybody on the planet. 

Russian State TV Discusses How to 'Destroy East and West Coasts of U.S.'

Russian state TV claims World War Three has already 'begun' | Metro News Putin's state controlled TV claims that it will now be necessary to demilitarize NATO. Just a bunch of stupid, ignorant and reckless talking heads. 

I been watching videos on a YouTube channel called 1420 that consists solely of interview with your average Russian. Most of them remind me of Trumpsters who do not have the excuse that they lack access to accurate information. 

Fears of a new invasion along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia - The Washington Post  ("The video shows Russian soldiers firing a rocket-propelled grenade at the border guards’ pickup truck, then summarily executing those who survived.")  

In Mali, a Massacre With a Russian Footprint - The New York Times

Oil prices jump after EU leaders agree to ban most Russian crude imports (5/31/22); EU leaders agree on Russia oil ban 'in principle' - YouTube 

+++++

1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries: 

Starting last March, I am averaging about $10K per week in bond buys. If I continue at this pace, which will require interest rates to continue moving higher somewhere along the short to intermediate term maturity spectrum, I will have increased my bond allocation by over $500K through March 2023, bringing the total to about $1M. 

If 2 year or more maturities continue stagnating in yield after the FED increases the FF rate in June and July, currently expected to total a 1% increase, I will focus more on buying treasury bills  at auction. Some of those increases are already priced into the 3 month to 1 year bill yields. 

My Schwab sweep account still pays .01%. 

My Vanguard sweep MM fund, the Vanguard Federal MM fund, currently has a 7 day "SEC yield" of .69%, and I expect that it will go over 1% in late June or early July.

The 7 day yield on the Fidelity sweep account, the Fidelity Government MM fund, is at .38%, lower than the similar Vanguard Federal MM fund due to Fidelity charging more to manage.  

A. Bought 2 Abbvie 2.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/21/24 at a Total Cost of 99.109: 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Prospectus 

Issuer: AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) 

ABBV SEC Filings 

2021 Annual Report 

2021 4th Q. Earnings Report 

Credit Rating: BBB+ by S & P

YTM at TC = 2.988%

Current Yield at TC = 2.62%, rounded down. 

I own the common stock. 

B. Bought 2 Discovery Communication 3.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.914: 

Discovery Communications is now called Warner Brothers Discovery Inc. (WBD) after Discovery completed the acquisition of Warner Media from AT&T. 

Website: Warner Bros. Discovery

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Current Yield at TC = 3.49%, rounded up. 

YTM at TC = 3.848%

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB- (1 notch above junk) 

I am not currently concerned about the credit risk when buying a WBD short term bond. 

I do have concerns longer term about the credit risks given the new debt resulting from the Warner Media acquisition and the rise in interest rates making WBD's debt more costly when it has to refinance maturing bonds. WBD will be using free cash flow to pay down debt and will not be using cash to pay a dividend. The company needs to reduce debt substantially before buying a single share of its own stock. 

C. Bought 2 Oracle 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 5/15/25 at a Total Cost of 97.886: 

The price includes a $1 per bond commission. 

Issuer: Oracle Corp. 

ORCL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ORCL SEC Filings 

Results for the F/Q Ending 2/28/22 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

YTM at TC = 3.685% (without a commission the YTM would be 3.72%)

Current yield at TC = 3.01%, rounded down. 

D. Bought 1 Treasury 1.875% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/24 at a Total Cost of $98.3438:  

YTM at TC = 2.6%

Current Yield at TC = 1.91%, rounded up. 

E. Bought 1 Treasury 2.625% Coupon Maturing on 4/15/25 at 99.4524: 

YTM at TC = 2.817%

Current Yield at TC = 2.66%, rounded down. 

F. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturning on 4/30/24 at 99.0915: 

YTM at TC = 2.715%

Current Yield at TC = 2.27%

G. Bought 2 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 2/15/23 at 99.6488:

YTM at TC = 1.809%

Current Yield at TC = 1.38%

H. Bought 1 Treasury 1.5% Coupon Maturing on 1/15/23 at 99.878: 

Current Yield at TC: 1.5%

YTM at TC = 1.667%

2. Small Ball:  

A. Eliminated SNY - Sold 20 at $54.04: 

Quote: Sanofi ADR

SNY Analyst Estimates

Euros: Sanofi S.A. (France: Euronext Paris)

Website: Sanofi 

ADR Ratio: 2 ADRs = 1 Ordinary

Profit Snapshot: +$116.81

Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added to SNY -Bought 10 at $47.8 (2/20/21 Post); Item # 1.A. Restarted SNY-Bought 10 at $48.35 (1/23/21 Post) Those purchases were made before the 2021 annual ex dividend date. 

Dividend: Annual with a supplemental paid in 2022.

SNY Dividend History | Nasdaq

The SNY penny rate for the annual 2022 dividend was $1.7967514 per share. I received that dividend on 5/31/22. 

The SNY dividend will be subject to France's withholding tax. 

The amount will depend on the EUR/USD conversion rate. 

A supplemental dividend of $.297+ per share went ex on 5/26/22 which was after I sold this 20 share lot. 

Dividend History: Divide by 2 for USD priced ADR

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Sanofi continues to deliver strong business EPS growth driven by higher sales and improved margins in Q1 

For the ADR, per share numbers need to be dividend by two.  

IFRS: International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Definition Basically, IFRS is Europe's alternative to U.S. GAAP accounting standards.

IFRS EPS of €1.61 (up 28.8%)

Free cash flow  = €1.707B

"Business" E.P.S. = $1.94

Reconciliation of IFRS to Business E.P.S. : 

Revenues: €9.674B

"In the first quarter, Dupixent® (collaboration with Regeneron) sales increased 45.7% to €1,614 million."   SNY would not interest me without this drug. 

Vaccine Revenues = €1.02B, up 6.2%

Consumer Healthcare Revenues = €1.328B, up 17%

Consider to repurchase: $48 to $50 within 3 months of the next annual dividend or less than $47 

Some Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 50 SNY (1/18/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $130.36); Item # 6 Sold 50 SNY at $42.56- Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 8/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $177.4); Sold Sanofi (6/30/2009 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.29) 

The general approach is to harvest the annual dividend and to sell the shares for a 5%+ annualized gain. 

Over the past 5 years, SNY has traded mostly in a channel between $40 and $55 and is currently at the top end of that channel. The chart reflects IMO a lack of enthusiasm among investors who count. 

SNY Trading Profits to date = $596.04

B.  Sold 9 HOLX at $78.52 (Schwab Account) and 7 at $78.64 in Vanguard Account: 

Quote: Hologic Inc.

Website: Hologic: Breakthrough Diagnostic & Medical Imaging Solutions

HOLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

HOLX SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/26/22 

HOLX Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ending on 9/25/21

I eliminated my small ball positions in two taxable accounts and kept the one in my Fidelity account which has 21+ HOLX shares. The AC per share is at $73.15 per share:

Price as of 5/27/22 Close

Profit Snapshots: $90.22

Buy Discussions: Item # 2.K. Added to HOLX in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 1 at $72.7 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 2.I. Added to HOLX in Vanguard Account-Bought 1 at $64.5, 1 at $62.48 (5/23/21 Post)

Dividend: None and none expected. 

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 3/26/22): Hologic  (HOLX) SEC Filed Press Release

GAAP E.P.S. = $1.80; 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $2.07, with the  consensus at $1.596 per Fidelity; 

Most of the GAAP to Non-GAAP adjustments involved a non-cash amortization expense of acquired intangible assets: 

"Revenue of $1.436 billion decreased (6.6%) for the quarter, or (5.2%) in constant currency, primarily driven by lower sales of COVID-19 assays compared to the prior year period";

"Excluding revenue from COVID-19, organic revenue declined (1.6%) on a constant currency basis primarily due to the previously discussed impact of semiconductor chip shortages in the Breast Health division and the negative impact of the COVID-19 Omicron variant on healthcare utilization early in the quarter."

Guides fiscal 2022 non-GAAP E.P.S. to $5.45 to $5.65, up from the prior guidance of $4.9 to $5.2, but down 35.2% to 32.8% Y-O-Y due to lower Covid revenues 

While the decrease in Covid test revenues is understandable and expected, I was concerned about the decline in organic revenues excluding those related to Covid testing. The concern was sufficient for me to sell a few shares of this non-dividend paying stock and to consolidate the position in 1 taxable account. 

As previously discussed, HOLX used the cash generated by Covid testing to acquire a number of companies for cash.  

Hologic Closes on Acquisition of Bolder Surgical; Hologic to Acquire Bolder Surgical for $160 Million, Expanding its Surgical Franchise (10/14/21)

Hologic Completes Acquisition of Mobidiag (6/17/21); Hologic to Acquire Mobidiag, Innovator in Near-Patient, Acute Care Diagnostic Testing, for Approximately $795 Million (Cash about $714M) 

Hologic Acquires European Molecular Diagnostic Company Diagenode for Approximately $159 Million (3/1/21)

Hologic Completes Acquisition of Biotheranostics for about $230M, Enabling Entry into Growing Oncology Market (2/20/21)

Hologic to Acquire SOMATEX, Leader in Biopsy Site Markers and Localization Technologies, for $64 Million (1/4/21)

The total cash outlays for those 2021 acquisitions came to about $1.327B. 

Current and Long Term Debt as of 3/26/22 = $3.069.6B

Current and Long Term Debt as of 3/27/21 = $2.747B  10-Q for the F/Q 

Current and Long Term Debt as of 9/26/20: $3.038.8B

It remains to be seen whether those acquisitions will be worth the prices paid.  

The general approach with HOLX going forward will be to buy and sell small lots only in my Fidelity account. The consider to sell range is currently at >$85, highest cost lots only, and to buy at <$70.  

C. Pared FENY Again - Sold 10 shares at $22.74 -Part of Highest Cost Lot: 

Quote: Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF

Sponsor's website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity

I have been selling my highest cost lots which is part of my small ball trading strategy. 

Expense Ratio = .08%

Profit Snapshot: +$66.29 (5/24/22 sale only) 

Average cost per share after pare = $14.18 (80+ Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 5/24/22 after pare  

Last 4 Dividend Payments: $.585 per share

Yield at $14.18 Using Last 4 Dividends = 4.13%, rounded up. 

Weightings over 1%: 

Of those stocks, I currently own CTRA, CVX, KMI, OKE, WMB, and XOM, with KMI and WMB being my largest dollar positions. 

Other Recent Pares: Item # 3.J. Sold 4.918 FENY at $21.68 (4/14/22 Post); Item # 2.I. Pared FENY- Sold 5 at $20.95 (4/7/22 Post)

D. Restarted TPVG in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $13.8: 

History this Account: 

Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC

Management: External

TPVG SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report (summary of risk factors starts at page 24 and ends at page 52)

Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96  (4/11/2020 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share (regular only)

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock (TPVG) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $13.8 = 10.43%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/18/22

Net Asset Value per share history: 

IPO in March 2014 at $15

3/31/22:     $13.84

12/31/21:   $14.01

9/30/21:  $13.92

12/31/20: $12.97

6/30/20:  $13.17

3/31/20:  $12.85

12/31/19: $13.34

9/30/19:  $13.47
12/31/18: $13.50  
9/30/18:  $13.59
12/31/17: $13.25
9/30/17:  $13.39 
9/30/16:  $13.44
9/30/15:  $14.52 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): TriplePoint Venture Capital (TPVG) SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q (list of investments starts at page 5)

NII per share = $.44 with the consensus at $.373 per Fidelity; 

Net Asset value per share = $13.84; 

"Achieved a 15.5% weighted average annualized portfolio yield on total debt investments for the quarter"; 

"Held debt investments in 48 portfolio companies, warrants in 86 portfolio companies and equity investments in 42 portfolio companies as of March 31, 2022"; 

"raised $125.0 million in aggregate principal amount from the private issuance of 5.00% institutional notes due 2027"

Declared regular dividend of $.36 per share

"Non-accrual investments as of March 31, 2022 had a total cost and fair value of $29.5 million and $9.9 million, respectively.", 10-Q at page 17 Looking at page 8, that loan was made to Luminary Roli Limited which filed for bankruptcy and then relaunched with a different focus. ROLI files for bankruptcy and will reboot as beginner-focused company Luminary | MusicTech  

Company Risk Assessments of Loans: 

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.J. Pared TPVG in Fidelity Taxable Account- Sold 5 at $16.95;5 at $18.83 and Item #2.K. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Account - Sold 3 at $17.62 (11/26/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $84.38 and $30.46); Item #3.R. Finished Selling Fractional Shares Bought with Dividends-Fidelity Account  (6/4/21 Post)(profit  =$2.01/.461 share); Item # 1.L. Sold 5 TPVG at $15.67 in Schwab Taxable and Item #1.M. Sold 11 TPVG at $15.67-highest cost shares in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)(profit snapshots  = $74.43); Item # 1.R. Pared TPVG in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $15.35 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.74); Item # 1.C. Pared TPVG-Sold 4 at $14.85 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.71); Item # 3.K. Pared-Sold 9 at $13.13-Lots Bought with Dividend (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.95); Item #1.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.41 (8/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.1; contains snapshots of prior round-trip trade profits); Item # 2.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.6 (8/15/20 Post)(profit snapshot $9.99); Item # 1.J. Eliminated TPVG in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 30 at $10.58 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.3); Item # 2.A. Pared TPVG-Sold 14 shares at $15.61-Used Commission Free Trade (9/1/2019 Post)(profit = $46.33); Item # 2.A. Sold 74+ TPVG at $14.87 (7/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $246.43); Item # 4.C. Eliminated  TPVG in Roth IRA Account (4/17/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $88.87); Item # 3.B.(4/14/19 Post)(profit = $71.76); Item 3.A. Sold 40 TPVG at $13.44-Schwab Account and Item #3B Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 Vanguard Roth  IRA (3/13/19 Post)(profit snapshots of $4.17 and $4.49 ); Item 2.B. Sold 50 TPVG at $13.39 (3/4/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $153.08); Item # 3 Sold 50 TPVG at $12.33 (1/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.48) 

Needless to say, I am a frequent trader of this stock. 

TPVG Realized Gains to Date: $1,076.87

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments prior to ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. 

E. Added 1 TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account at $13.85: 

Share Price as of 5/27/22

See Item # 2.D. above. 

New Average cost per share this account = $5.51

Note the purchases in this account between $3 and $5.32 during the March-April 2020 meltdown period. This kind of  waterfall price reaction is common for BDCs during periods of severe financial distress for the economy accompanied by a massive stock selloff. 

Dividend Yield at $5.51 = 26.13% 

I also own 29 shares in my Fidelity account with a $5.11 AC per share. The dividend yield at that AC is 28.18%. 

F. Added to TRST in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $30.53: 

Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.  (TRST)

TRST SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Added to TRST in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $30 (10/29/21 Post); Item # 1.D. Restarted TRST-Bought 5 at $32.5; 5 at $32.27; 5 at $31.25 (9/17/21 Post) 

Average cost per share this account: $31.83 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)

Yield at $31.83 AC this account: 4.4%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend: Today, 6/2/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): TrustCo Bancorp New York (TRST) SEC Filed Press Release 

Net income of $17.1M or $.89 per share with the consensus at $.69 per Fidelity; 

NIM = 2.66%, down from 2.78% in the 2021 first quarter; 

Efficiency Ratio = 50.55%; 

NPL ratio = .43%; 

NPA ratio = .31%; 

Coverage ratio = 237.8%; 

Charge off ratio: Net recovery; 

ROA = 1.12%; 

ROE = 11.6%; 

Dividend payout ratio = 39.36%

Sell Discussions: There was a 1 for 5 reverse stock split in 2021 that explains the lower prices. TRST Split History

Item # 3.G. Eliminated TRST-Sold 15+ in Schwab Taxable at $7.45 and 40+ in Fidelity Taxable at $7.44 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $111); Item # 1.D. Pared TRST-Sold 10 at $6.72 (1/9/21 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6  (11/2/19 Post); Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post); Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post); Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(largest gain to date = $549.47)

TRST Realized Gains to Date: $1,222.29

G. Added to FULT in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $15.16: 

Quote: Fulton Financial Corp.

FULT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FULT SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Corporate Profile | Fulton Financial Corporation

Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 FULT at $17.04; 5 at $16.71 (12/22/21 Post) 

Average cost per share this account: $16.58 (17+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 ($.56 annually)

Yield at AC this account: 3.38%, rounded up. 

Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/31/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Fulton Financial (FULT) SEC Filed Press Release 

Net income of $61.7M or $.38 per share with the consensus at $.317 per Fidelity; 

NIM = 2.78%, down from 2.79% in the 2021 first quarter; 

Efficiency ratio = 65.8%, which I view as too high; 

NPL Ratio = .88%

Charge off ratio: net recovery; 

Coverage ratio = 151%; 

ROA = 1.01%; 

ROE = 10.03%; 

ROTE = 12.88%

H. Added to BRBS- Bought 5 at $13.97: 

Quote: Blue Ridge Bankshares Inc.

BRBS SEC Filings

10-K for 2021

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

There are no analyst estimates. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Bought 5 at $15.9; 5 at $15.10; 10 at $14.9 (3/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post. 

Average Cost per share = $15.14 (40 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 5/20/22 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share. 

Dividends | Blue Ridge Bankshares Inc.

Yield at AC = 3.3%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/4/22 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release 

Net income of $17.4M

E.P.S. at $.93, up from $.68 in the 2021 first quarter

NIM = 3.88%, up from 3.43% in the 2021 first quarter

"Accretion and amortization of purchase accounting adjustments" had a 53 basis point NIM benefit in the 2022 first quarter compared to 17 basis points in the 2021 first quarter. As previously discussed, I ignore this accounting adjustment and would adjust the NIM numbers to 3.35% in the 2022 first quarter compared to 3.26%. (Purchased Loan Accounting for Financial Institution Acquisitions and see generally discussion in this 2014 Barron's article: Regional Banks That Face EPS Headwinds | Barron's)

Efficiency ratio = 47.4% 

NPL and NPA Ratios: Both at .53%

ROA = 2.68%

ROE = 25.84%

Tangible book value per share = $13.1

"Primarily as a result of an increase in market interest rates in the first quarter of 2022, the market value of the Company’s portfolio of securities available for sale declined approximately $22.6 million, which resulted in a corresponding after-tax decline in stockholders’ equity of $17.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022."

Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase having to be at the lowest price in the chain, stopping at a 100 share maximum position. 

I. Added to HBI -Bought 5 at $11.68-Schwab Taxable Account: 

Quote: Hanesbrands Inc.

HBI SEC Filings

HBI Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/22

10-Q for the First F/Q Ending 4/2/22

Website: Comfortable Clothing Since 1901 | Hanes

I am just averaging down in this account until I hit 100 shares. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added to HBI in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 5 at $14.4; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $13.55; 5 at $13.15; 5 at $12.32 (5/12/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. 

The slide in the HBI share price is IMO an overreaction to several lackluster or poor retailer earnings reports. It is not like those retailer earnings and revenues fell short because Hanes underwear revenues were a disaster.   

Average cost per share this account: $14.22 (55 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15

Yield at $14.22: 4.22%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/9/22 (owned 50 this account as of)

J. Added to ARGOPRA - Bought 5 at $24.48: 

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. Series A Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock

Issuer: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd (ARGO)

ARGO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Issuer SEC Filings

Earnings Report Q/E 3/31/22 

2021 Annual Report 

AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. and Its Subsidiaries (4/13/22) A.M. Best rates the preferred stock at BB which is consistent with a BBB- rating on senior unsecured debt.   

Investment Category: This is a fixed-to-floating rate security that I include in my Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities classification. 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to ARGOPRA - Bought 5 at $24.99 (9/26/20 Post) 

Security: Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred Stock, senior only to common stock. 

Stopper Clause: Yes 

Dividends: Paid Quarterly, Non-Cumulative and Qualified

Coupon: 7% to but excluding 9/15/25, then, if not called, resets for 5 years at a 6.712% spread to the 5 year treasury note.  (see prospectus at pages S7-8) 

I would be surprised that the issuer will allow this security to reset in September 2025 and will likely call it at par value unless it is in dire financial condition. If that proves to be the case, and a lot can happen in 3+ years, then this is a preferred stock that effectively has a 3+ year maturity.   

Ex Dividend: 5/27/22 (owned all as of)

Yield at $24.48: 7.15%, rounded up. (based on fixed rate coupon)

K. Bought 10 HPPPRC at $17.36: 

Quote: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. 4.750% Cumulative Preferred Series C Stock 

This is a new name for me.  

Issuer: Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.  (HPP) 

Website: Hudson Pacific Properties: A West Coast Real Estate Group

HPP SEC Filings 

Earnings Report Q/E 3/31/22 

Security: Prospectus

Par Value = $25

Offering: Sold at $25 per share in November 2021. 

The price decline since this security was sold at $25 is IMO solely attributable to the rise in interest rates and highlights the interest rate risk of a potentially perpetual equity preferred stock. 

Optional Call Date: On or after 11/16/26 (a 5 year restraint on exercising the optional call is typical for this kind of security)  

Maturity Date: Potentially Perpetual (very few equity preferred stocks have maturity dates)

The potentially perpetual maturity and the optional call date creates asymmetric interest rate risk in favor of the issuer. The interest rate risk related to no maturity date is evidenced by the severe percentage price decline since this preferred stock was recently sold at $25. 

Stopper Clause: Yes

Change of Control: Yes 

Dividend: Quarterly, Cumulative and non-Qualified.  

REIT preferred stocks generally do not pay any qualified dividends, though they are a few exceptions where miniscule amounts are so classified out of the total. That has to do with the pass through tax status. REIT preferred stocks are more like bonds than equity capital, but lack both the protection of bonds and the potentially favorable ownership characteristics of common stock. I view them as a disfavored asset class. 

Yield at $17.36 =  6.84% (.0475% x. $25 par value = $1.1875 per share ÷ $17.36 = 6.84%)

Ex Dividend: 3/18/22 (owned as of)

The first payment included more than 3 months since the security was sold in November 2021. Hudson Pacific Properties Declares Series C Cumulative Preferred Stock Dividend (3/11/22)($.4453125 per share, subsequent payments will be at $.296875 per share)  

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase at the lowest price in the chain. 

L. Added to RYLD - Bought 1 at $20.72-Fidelity Taxable Account: 

Quote: Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)

Sponsor's website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF

Investment category: Monthly Income Generation 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Bought 5 RYLD at $22.48 - Fidelity Account  (2/10/22 Post) 

Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate

Average cost per share = $22.91 (16 shares)

Total 12 months = $2.945506 (includes a short term capital gain of $.306586 paid in December 2021)

12 Month Total excluding ST gain distribution = $2.63892 per share

Yield at $22.91 AC using $2.64 annual rate = 11.52%

Goal: Any return in excess of the dividend payments.

M. Added to INTC - Bought 1 at $40.53: 

Quote: Intel Corp. (INTC)

INTC SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22

2021 Annual Report 

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.H. Added to INTC - Bought 1 at $44.03  (5/12/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

Average cost per share: $45.57 (4 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.365 per share ($1.46 annually)

Yield at New AC:  3.2%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/5/22

Last Eliminated: Item # 1 Sold 60 INTC at $52.29 (3/29/18 Post); Item 1 Sold 50 INTC at $50.51 (3/22/18 Post)(profit snapshots = $3,990.42)

Purchase Restriction: I will average down in 1 share lots until the price falls below $40 when I will consider buying more shares, probably in 5 share lots, until I hit a maximum limit of 50 shares.     

Last Bond Offering in August 2021: Prospectus 

The 1.6% SU maturing in 2028 is currently hovering around 90. Bond Detail

N. Bought 5 ELC at $22.65; 5 at $23.12- Fidelity Taxable: 

Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC  First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subset of Exchange Traded Bonds

I have limited my exposure to this first mortgage bond due to interest rate risk that I can better control by purchasing Entergy Louisiana $1K par value First Mortgage bonds. I currently own maturities ranging from 12/1/22 to 4/1/28. I am willing to accept lower current yields from those bonds, compared to ELC, in exchange for substantially lower interest rate risk. 

Prospectus 

Average cost per share in this account: $22.885

Yield at $22.885 = 5.33%, rounded up. 

Security: First Mortgage  

Par Value =  $25

Interest Payments: Quarterly at $.304688 per share

Trades Flat 

Optional Call: On or after 9/1/2021 at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest

Maturity Date if Not Called: 9/1/2066  

Credit Ratings: A2/A

Last Ex Interest Date: 5/27/22 (owned as of)  

 

Last Buy Discussions: Item #3.A. Bought 10 ELC at $21.37-Used Commission Free Trade (12/12/18 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 20 ELC at $22.04-Used Commission Free Trade (12/17/18 Post)

Last Sell Discussions: Item # 4.B. Sold 30 ELC at $24.87- Used Commission Free Trade (5/1/2019 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.58); Item # 4.A. Sold 30 ELC at $23.48-Used Commission Free Trade (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot +20.22)

O. Eliminated CNCE - Sold 20 at $4.26: 

Quote: Concert Pharmaceuticals Inc.

CNCE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (losses)

CNCE SEC Filings

CNCE 2021 Annual Report

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket. 

Profit Snapshot: +$30.62 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 20 CNCE at $2.75 (4/7/22 Post) 

Prior Round-Trip: Item # 4.A. Sold 20 CNCE at $19.89 (12/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.33)

CNCE Realized Gains to date: $157.95 

The share price popped in response to this press release: Concert Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive Topline Results for First CTP-543 Phase 3 Clinical Trial in Alopecia Areata Top line data from another Phase 3 trial is expected in the 2022 third quarter. Assuming that trial has positive results as well, CNCE plans to submit a new drug application in the first half of 2023. If everything goes right, maybe CNCE will become profitable in 2025 or 2026.  

Consider to repurchase: <$3 with no material negative news

3. Interest Payments Paid into Fidelity Taxable Account on 6/1/22: 

While one investment goal in 2022 was to increase my interest income by 50% compared to 2021, I no longer believe that is possible since most of the $1K par value bonds that I have been buying will make only 1 semiannual payment during this year. So the goal has been revised to increase interest income by over 50% in 2023 compared to 2021. 

For the $1K par value bonds included in these snapshots, the only ones purchased this year are the Entergy Mississippi First Mortgage bond maturing on 6/1/28 and 1 of the 2 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% First Mortgage bonds maturing in 2027. 

The exchange traded $25 par value ELC, a 4.875% First Mortgage bond issued by Entergy Louisiana, was  bought shortly before the quarterly ex interest date in this account and is discussed in Item # 2.N. above. The exchange traded bonds trade flat which simply means that whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, unlike the $1K par value bonds traded in the bond market where the buyer pays accrued and unpaid interest to the seller.  

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.