Saturday, June 10, 2023

CET, CFGPRD, CLPR, CNQ, D, DCOM, DCOMP, FFNW, FMAGX, FSK, FSPHX, GRX, ICMB, IDE, MRCC, RVT

Economy

As of 6/8/23, the Atlanta FED GDP Model is predicting 2.2% real GDP growth in the second quarter. GDPNow- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

In the 2023 first quarter, U.S. household net worth increased by $3.03 trillion.   

The Fed - Chart: Changes in Net Worth: Households and Nonprofit Organizations, 1952 - 2023

Household net worth: $149 Trillion


The Fed - Chart: Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, 1952 - 2023

CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Continues Annual Single-Digit Slowdown in April ("Nationwide, single-family home price growth rose by 2% year over year in April. This marked the 135th consecutive month of annual growth but the sixth straight month of single-digit gains, which have slowed from an all-time high of nearly 20% annual appreciation in the spring of 2022.")

The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Savings | San Francisco Fed 

Excess savings is "calculated as the accumulated difference between actual personal savings and the trend implied by data for the 48 months leading up to the first month of each recession as defined by the NBER."   

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bills: $5,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: $12,000 in principal amount

CDs $7,000

Individual Common Stocks:  +$4.74

(Consisting of $556.74 in purchases minus $552 in Proceeds) 

Weighted average dividend yield of stock purchases: 8.63%

Stock Mutual Funds: +$150

Stock CEFs: +$485.25 (CET, GRX, IDE, RVT)

Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: +$639.99

2023 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$32,728.79  

Bank Holding Company Preferred Stock: $181.8 (weighted yield at 9.31%) 

The largest of my 5 taxable accounts is at Fidelity. The asset allocation in that account is skewed heavily toward bonds. 

6/7 was an unusual day for this portfolio as the small stock allocation overcame a decline in the bond sector to produce a positive return for the day.  

++++

Trump and His Anti-Democracy Party

2024 Republican Primary Polls | Morning ConsultNational : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight Trump continues to have a substantial lead over DeSantis. 

Trump threatens legal action against 'libelous' former White House lawyer Ty Cobb - Raw Story 

Exclusive: Former White House official told federal prosecutors Trump knew of proper declassification process and followed it while in office 

As expected, the leader of the family values GOP was indicted by a federal grand jury.  

Within minutes of notifying the public that he had been indicted, Trump sent out a fundraising email:

"We are watching our Republic DIE before our very eyes. The Biden-appointed Special Counsel has INDICTED me in yet another witch hunt regarding documents that I had the RIGHT to declassify as President of the United States. This witch hunt began when the FBI RAIDED my home and then staged it to look like a made-for-TV crime scene with police sirens and flashing red and blue lights."

Without knowing the factual statements contained in the indictment which was released on Friday, Republicans last Thursday called the indictment a "grave injustice" and a "brazen weaponization of power" by the Biden administration. Facts do not matter to those who are already in an Orwellian thought mode. 

By continuing to defend Trump, republicans are defining who they are. House Republicans Rally Behind Trump, Seeking to Discredit Indictment - The New York Times; Trump indictment: Republican reaction reveals party gripped by paranoia - Vox

Trump referred to the indictment as a disgusting effort to interfere in the 2024 election. Donald claims his First Amendment rights are being violated by indicting him. 

Donald claimed that the special prosecutor Jack Smith is a "deranged lunatic" and "psycho". 

It goes without saying that neither Trump nor his defenders make any effort to dispute the factual statements contained in the indictment. 

The indictment is available for review. Read the full Trump indictment on mishandling of classified documents | PBS NewsHourThe Trump Classified Documents Indictment, Annotated - The New York TimesTrump indictment unsealed: The classified documents case, explained - Vox11 revelations from the Trump classified documents indictment

There are 37 counts. Walt Nauda is a co-defendant. The evidence of Trump's guilt, summarized in the indictment, is just staggering IMO.

This excerpt from the Indictment highlights some reasons why a Trump attorney was compelled to testify under the crime/fraud exception to the attorney client privilege: 

Trump’s Attorneys and the Crimes They Enabled - The Bulwark Lawyers representing Trump will end up having to hire lawyers. 

The federal district judge initially assigned to the case is the Trump appointed Aileen M. Cannon, who earlier issued absurd opinions in Donald's favor that had no support in either law or fact and were consequently quickly overturned by a right leaning, republican dominated appellate court. Judge Aileen Cannon can sink the federal prosecution of Donald Trump11th Circuit Opinion in Donald Trump v. U.S., vacating Cannon's rulings in the document case.pdf No other federal judge in the nation would be more favorable to Donald. Ultra-MAGA Judge Aileen Cannon Somehow Gets the Case 

Prior to being indicted and expecting one, Trump went ballistic in a "Truth Social" tweet last Monday.  

Besides being chock full of false statements and misinformation, as usual, what Trump ignores in the preceding statement is that Biden and Pence did not receive a grand jury subpoena and then fail to turn over documents marked as classified. It will be hard to explain in a criminal trial for obstruction why so many documents marked as classified were found in Donald's office and residence during the FBI August 2022 search. 

Trump's argument will likely work nonetheless on zombies and other brain dead persons. 

The 1850 boxes of documents referenced by Trump were located at University of Delaware and contain documents from Biden's service as a Senator. The FBI searched those boxes, and the initial finding was that they contained no classified documents. FBI Searched University of Delaware in Biden Documents Inquiry - The New York Times

'Nihilistic moron' Trump heading for another indictment: George Conway - Raw Story The self described "Extremely Stable Genius" is neither stable nor a genius. 'Extremely stable genius': Trump defends his mental fitness-POLITICO I would not describe Trump as a "moron". Possibly as a result of his mental illnesses, or simply out of abundant hubris, Trump's actions in the document case can charitably be described as incredibly stupid.  

Fact check: Trump boasts about a massive oil purchase that never happened 

+++

Putin and His Servile Orcs

The Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, which was seized by the Orcs in February 2022 and was still under their control, was blown up last week. The destruction is flooding dozens of communities in the low-lying Kherson region that Ukraine recaptured from the Orcs last year. Ukraine says Russia blew up Nova Kakhovka Dam in" act of terror" - CBS News Rescuers in flooded areas are now under Russian artillery attacks. Nova Kakhovka dam collapse: Russians shooting at rescuers in flooded areas 

Maps and before and after images reveal scale of disaster - BBC News

Based on the video footage, the dam appears to have been blown up using explosives placed inside the dam. To blow up this kind of structure, an extraordinary amount of explosives would have had to be used.

Seismic activity adds to evidence that explosion caused Ukraine dam collapseEvidence of explosion near Ukraine dam say Norway scientists - BBC News - YouTube

Russia's 'Smoking Gun' on Ukraine Dam Collapse

In Russian Schools, It’s Recite Your ABC’s and ‘Love Your Army’ - The New York Times Russia will start brainwashing children at an early age. 

Two-year-old girl killed in Russian missile attack on Dnipro in Ukraine- The GuardianRussian strike injures 22 in Dnipro, 1 killed | Russia Ukraine War | Oneindia News - YouTube

Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus in July, Putin says There is of course no sane reason for Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. That nation is under no threat of invasion. Any use of those weapons will be blamed on Russia, thereby needlessly creating another possible flash point for a nuclear war. 

Putin is a war criminal but will probably never stand trial in the Hague. 


++++

1. Small Ball Sells

A. Eliminated CNQ - Sold 10 at $55.2

Quotes: 

USDs: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)

CADs: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)

Proceeds: $552

CNQ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Website: Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ SEC Filings (foreign company forms)

Investor Relations – Canadian Natural Resources

Profit Snapshot: $237.5

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.A. Added to CNQ in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $30 (9/17/21 Post)Item # 1.H. Started CNQ in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 5 at $32.9 (6/19/21)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.H. Eliminated CNQ in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $58.43 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.32) 

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.90 per share, last raised from C$.85 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. I also received a C$1.5 special dividend in 2022. 

USD Dividend HistoryCanadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha The dividend for the USD priced shares will fluctuate with the CAD/USD exchange rates. 

Canada will withhold a 15% tax for dividends paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account. 

Next Ex Dividend Date: 6/15/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

Dollar amounts are in CADs. I am expecting E.P.S. to continue trending down due to declines in energy prices.  

Free cash flow: 

For now, I am going to limit my exposure to CNQ to its senior unsecured bonds. I currently own 4. Of those bonds, the last to mature is the 3.9% SU that matures on 2/1/2025, New Finra Page 2025 SU (ratings at Baa1/BBB-). The other 2 mature on 4/15/24 and have a 3.8% coupon. New Finra Page 2024 SU  I may buy 2 more of the 2025 maturity prior to the maturity of the 2024 bonds.

2. Small Ball Buys

I am starting to transition to a common stock net add. That is partly due to the economic data being inconsistent with a recession, valuations and yields in several sectors, and the VIX movement below 20. 

CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX): 13.83 close on 6/9/23

50 days of closes below 20 

Using my Vix Model as previously explained, the two days where the VIX closed slightly above 20 are insufficient to restart the count relating to the formation of a Stable Vix Pattern. Those closes were at 20.03 (5/24/23) and 20.09 (5/4/23)

Vix Asset Allocation Model | Seeking Alpha (10/17/14 Post); Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply (5/17/2009 Post); Trading Strategy Under The Vix Asset Allocation Model: Part 1 - southgent1951 | Seeking AlphaTrading Strategy Vix Asset Allocation Model Part 2: Hedging In An Unstable Vix Pattern - southgent1951 | Seeking AlphaParallels to VXO 1987-1988VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX PatternVIX and S & P Compared 1990 to 1997

A. Added to CFGPRD at $21.65

This was a partial fill of a 5 share order. 

Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. Preferred Series D Stock 

CFGPRD is a fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock issued by a bank holding company 

Issuer: Citizens Financial Group Inc.  (CFG) 

CFG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CFG SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 2.B. Started CFGPRD - Bought 5 at $24.76 (6/28/22 Post) 

Final Prospectus Supplement

Par Value: $25

Dividend: Paid Quarterly, Qualified, and Non-Cumulative. 

Fixed Coupon: 6.35% to but excluding 4/6/24

Floating Rate: Spread of 3.642% to the 3 month Libor (or alternate rate if no Libor quote is available). The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rate will probably be the one used if and when the floating rate comes into effect. (see page S-21 of the Prospectus) 

Average cost per share: $23.84 (7 Shares)

Current Yield: 6.66%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/20/23

CFG recently sold $400M of a 5.641% fixed-to-floating junior bond maturing on 5/31/37. Prospectus That one is a $1K par value bond. (rated at BBB) I am not currently interested in this junior bond given its 2037 maturity, placement in the capital structure, its relatively unappealing floating rate starting on 5/21/31 at a 2.75% spread to the 5 year treasury note, and the issuer option to redeem on the reset date at par value which may render a potential appealing reset coupon irrelevant (tails the owner loses, heads CFG wins).  

B. Added to IDE - Bought 5 at $9.31

Quote: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials & Materials Fund Overview- A Buy-Write Stock CEF

Cost $46.55

IDE SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Shareholder Report for the Semiannual Period Ending on 2/28/23

Sponsor's website: Voya Infrastructure, Industrials and Materials Fund

Last DiscussedItem # 3.F. Added 5 IDE at $9.48 (5/6/23 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $9.64 (30 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.229 per share ($.916 annually, ROC supported)

Yield at $9.64: 9.5

Last Ex Dividend: 4/3/23

Data Date of 5/31/23 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.08

Closing Market Price: $9.27

Discount: -16.18%

3 Year Average Discount: -10.97%

Sourced: IDE-CEF Connect 

IDE Realized Gains to Date: $621.55

Largest GainsItem # 2 Sold 100 of the Stock CEF IDE at $20.3 (3/11/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $227.25); Item # 5 Sold 100 IDE at $17.47 (3/24/2014 Post)(profit snapshot = $138.39) 

Last EliminationItem # 3. Eliminated IDE - Sold 100 at $13.85 (1/29/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.96)

Some Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 1 Sold 50 IDE at $18.7 (9/30/10 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.08); Item # 2 Sold 50 of the Stock CEF IDE at $18.61 (5/10/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.58); Item # 3 Sold 50 IDE at $17.12 Roth IRA (7/6/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.48).

Current Position: 30 shares

Maximum Position: 100 shares

From a total return perspective, given the relatively short holding periods for prior sold positions, I have had some modest success trading this CEF but do not view it as a long term hold. That is evident by what would have happened to my total return by holding onto the shares previously sold at much higher prices than the prevailing one now.  

IDE Morningstar: Currently rated 2 stars. 

IDE Performance | Morningstar

IDE Portfolio | Morningstar (has list of top 25 holdings)

I have not attempted to figure out what is causing the long term poor total return performance.  

I suspect the buy/write strategy has not worked very well for one or more reasons, including poor execution that could involve buying back options at a total return loss rather than losing the stock to a call and losing the stock to a call that continued to rise in value. 

Overall poor performance has also led to a widening of the discount. The discount to net asset value per share mostly ranged from zero to -10% between 2010-2015. Since then, the discount has surged at times above 15% with the annual averages generally over 10%. 

Another reason for the past performance is that the fund will own foreign stocks that will have near a 50% weighting. Generally, USD priced funds that own foreign stocks have underperformed a USD priced fund that owns only U.S. stocks over the past decade.  

10 Year Annual Average Total Returns Through 6/9/23: 

Voya Infrastructure Industrials & Matls (IDE) = 3.97%

Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) = +4.52%

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) = +11.69%  

SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) = 12.13%

The past may not be prologue to the future. 

C. Added to D - Bought 2 at $48.86


Quote: 
Dominion Energy Inc - Utility Holding Company 

Cost $97.72 

SEC Filings

Investor Relations | Dominion Energy

D | Dominion Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Dominion acquired the utility holding company SCANA in 2019 which was a large acquisition. Dominion Energy Combines With SCANA Corporation - Jan 2, 2019 SCANA's largest operating subsidiary was South Carolina Electric and Gas that had about 730,000 electricity customers and 380,000 natural gas customers as of 12/31/18. SCANA 2018 Annual Report at page 5 

Last DiscussedItem # 4.B. Added to D - Bought 1 at $55.58; 2 at $54.95; 1 at $54.61 (3/6/23 Post) 

Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 2.B. Added to D - Bought 1 at $57.19; 1 at $56.64 (2/27/23 Post) I discussed the 2022 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release 

5 Year Chart as of 6/2/23: Waterfall Formation Starting in mid-September 2022 and ongoing bear market trend. 

The closing price on 9/14/22 was $82.44.

For new purchases, this chart has some appeal to me. Maybe I need a brain reset. 

New Average cost per share: $55.04 (16+ Shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.6675 per share ($2.67 annually), last raised from $.63 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment, but slashed from $.94 to $.63 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment.  

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

As previously discussed, the dividend was slashed in response to a discontinuation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project and the sale of Dominion Gas to a Berkshire owned utility company. 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy Completes Acquisition of Majority of Dominion Energy’s Gas Transmission and Storage Business- 11/2/2020 ("The transaction consideration was $8 billion, including approximately $2.7 billion in cash (subject to certain adjustments) and the assumption of approximately $5.3 billion in debt.")

Dominion Energy and Duke Energy Cancel the Atlantic Coast Pipeline - Jul 5, 2020

Yield at AC = 4.85%

Last Ex Dividend:  6/1/23 (owned 14+ as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP Net Income of $997M or $1.17 per share

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.99

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation: 

Revenues: $5.252B

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.K. Eliminated D in Fidelity and Vanguard Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $80.92; 5 at $81.95 (3/10/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $72.41); Item # 2.D. Eliminated D in Schwab Account- Sold 4 at $80.59 (3/3/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.05); Item # 3.E. Pared D-Sold 2 at $80.23, 2 at $80.24 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.52); Item # 1.D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.97); Item #1.D. Sold 13 D at $78.17 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $51.81)

I prefer owning the senior unsecured bonds issued by Dominion's operating subsidiary Virginia Electric Power or by Dominion. 

I also own SU bonds originally issued by Dominion Gas that are now obligations of a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, currently rated at Baa1/A (e.g. Bond Page | FINRA.org)

D. Added 10 DCOMP at $13.85

Quote: Dime Community Bancshares 5.5% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock Overview

Issuer: Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (DCOM) - A Bank Holding Company

DCOM SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (Investment security information can be found at pages 14-15. I would give the interest rate management a B- grade, higher than normal, given the very lower weighting in securities maturing in more than 10 years and the issuing of 5% fixed-to-floating rate junior bonds maturing in 2032, with a low 2.18% spread to the 3 month SOFR starting on 5/15/27 if not redeemed at par, page 31) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filed Press Release 

"Period end total deposits at March 31, 2023 were $10.57 billion, compared to $10.25 billion at December 31, 2022. The ratio of non-insured deposits (excluding deposits with pass through insurance and collateralized deposits) to total deposits was 30% at the end of the first quarter of 2023."

Last DiscussionItem # 2.I. Eliminated DCOMP in  Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $22.3 and Item # 2.J. Eliminated DCOMP in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15 at $21.77 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $47.55); Item # 2.A. Pared DCOMP in Fidelity Account - Sold 30 out of 80 at $25.8 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $170.85)

I would attribute the 2022 price decline to the rise in interest rates.  

Another significant decline started in March 2023 and was precipitated by the Silicon Valley and Signature Bank collapses that resulted in increased credit risk concerns for most bank holding company preferred stocks.

Average cost per share: $19.05 (60 shares)

Yield at New AC: 7.22%

Yield at $13.85: 9.93%

Prospectus

Par Value: $25 

Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity preferred stock, senior only to common stock and junior to all debt. 

Dividend: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative. 

Stopper Clause: Standard. (see pp. S-16 and S-17 of the prospectus). This clause enforces the preferred shareholders' preferential claim to cash against only the common stockholders. The common stock dividend has to be eliminated before eliminating the preferred stock dividend.  

Issuer Optional Call: On or after 2/15/25. Given the low coupon, I would not currently anticipate that this security will be called in 2025 or most likely never. 

Last Ex Dividend: 5/5/23 (owned 50 as of)    

Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. 5.5% Preferred Stock (DCOMP) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Other Sell DiscussionItem # 2.B. Sold 10 DCOMP at $21.14 and 10 at $22.06-Highest Cost Lots Fidelity Taxable Account (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.23)

Realized DCOMP Gains to Date: $244.53

Maximum Position: 100 shares 

Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to lower my average cost per share.  

As with all preferred stocks issued by bank holding companies, the security is likely to become worthless when and if the FDIC seizes the operating bank which is the primary asset owned by the bank holding company. That will generally result in the bank holding company filing for bankruptcy since its debt would likely exceed the value of whatever is still owned after the FDIC seizure. Even junior bond owners would likely face a total wipeout or very close to it.  

E. Added 7 DCOM at $18.79

Quote: Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (DCOM) 

Cost:  $93.95

DCOM  SEC Filings 

Dime Community Bank was acquired by Bridge Bancorp (BDGE). Upon consummation of that acquisition, Bridge change its name and symbol to Dime Community Bank (DCOM). 

My prior trades were in Bridge Bancorp shares.  My largest gains were discussed in these posts: Item # 2.A. Sold 109+ BDGE at $35.53 (10/31/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,782.46); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 BDGE at $35.03 (4/23/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $376.06);  Item # 4 Pared BDGE Selling Highest Cost 56 Shares at $24.71 (12/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $200.65)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.H. Pared BDGE - Sold 5 at $26.72 (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.58); Item # 2.D. Pared BDGE-Sold 5 at $23.8 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.39)

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.K. Added to BDGE-Bought 2 at $17.45; 2 at $17.2; 2 at $17.03 and 1 at $16.8 (10/17/20 Post)

I discussed some DCOM financial information in Item # 1.D. above. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

New Average cost per share: $18.26 (30+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/8/23 after add 

The other shares were bought when the bank was known as Bridge Bancorp. 

This add raised my average cost per share from $18.11. 

After my last pare in early 2021, I kept a few of my lowest cost BDGE shares and have merely started to add back slowly to the previously reduced position. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2023 second quarter payment. The $.24 penny rate was a 1 cent raise from $.23 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. The dividend was at $.23 in 2013. I would describe this dividend history as poor. 

Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. (DCOM) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Based on valuation, I have recently restarted reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at New AC = 5.48%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/14/23 (owned 23+ as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2022 first quarter 

Net Income: $35.5M, up from $32.7M

E.P.S. = $.92, up from $.84

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.95, up from $.82

GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation: 

NIM: 2.74, down from 3.19%

Efficiency Ratio: 50.1%, down from 51.8%

NPA Ratio: .23%

Charge Off Ratio: .06%

Coverage Ratio: 248.34% 

Adjusted ROTE: 16.1%, up from 14.4%.

Tangible Book Value per share: $23.52

Discount to TBV per share at AC of  $18.26 = 22.36%

DCOM/BDGE Realized Gains to Date: $2,616.47 (currently at # 5 in Regional Bank Basket Strategy)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.H. Sold 10 BDGE at $21.02-highest cost lot (9/5/20 Post)Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.01 (9/24/12 Post)Item # 3 Sold 50 BDGE at $23.5 (7/3/12 Post)

F. Restarted FFNW - Bought 10 at $10.35

Quote: First Financial Northwest Inc.  (FFNW). - Bank Holding Company.

Cost: $103.5

As of 3/31/23, "First Financial Northwest Bank operated in 15 locations in Washington with the headquarters and seven retail branch locations in King County, five retail branch locations in Snohomish County and two retail branches in Pierce County. The Bank’s primary market area consists of King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, Washington."

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

FFNW Analyst Estimates

FFNW SEC Filings

2022 Annual Report 

Last DiscussedItem # 1.C. Eliminated FFNW - Sold 27+ at $16.6 (2/17/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $196.73

Positives: Extremely Low NPL and NPA Ratios; No Charge Offs in the Last Quarter, Dividend Yield at Total Cost, and Substantial Discount to Tangible Book Value Per Share

Negatives: Significant Decline in E.P.S., Downtrend in NIM, High Efficiency Ratio, Too Low ROE Ratio, Persistent Investor Negativity on the Regional Bank Sector 

Based on the current share price and the decline from the 52 week high of , the investor consensus places far more emphasis on the negative factors. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share ($.52 annually), last raised from $.12 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. 

First Financial Northwest, Inc. (FFNW) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $10.35: 5.02%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/8/23 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2022 first quarter. 

Net Income: $2.1M, down from $3.3M

E.P.S. $23, down from $.36

Efficiency Ratio: 75.44%, up from 70.96% (way too high IMO and going in the wrong direction)

NPL Ratio: .02% (excellent)

NPA Ratio: .01% (excellent)

Charge Offs: Zero (excellent)

ROE: 5.31%, down from 8.33% which was too low IMO. 

The decline in ROE is not surprising given the lower NIM number. The NIM decline has the standard explanation, where increases in loan yields and a low investment security yield has not kept up with rising borrowing and deposit costs.

Total Capital Ratio: 15.59% (OK, IMO)

Tangible Book Value per share: $17.3, up from $17.15

Discount to TVB per share at $10.35: 40.17%

Deposit Information: "Deposits totaled $1.23 billion at March 31, 2023, compared to $1.17 billion at December 31, 2022, and $1.14 billion at March 31, 2022. Total deposits increased $57.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, compared to the quarter ended December 31, 2022, primarily due to a $66.5 million increase in brokered deposits."

Investment Securities: 10-Q 



$27.4M pledged as collateral for public entity deposits. 

G. Added 5 RVT at $13.14

Quote: Royce Value Trust Inc. Overview - A Stock CEF

Leveraged: Barely at 2+%. 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Eliminated RVT in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $17.5 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot =  $50.7)

RVT SEC Filings 

2022 SEC Filed Annual Report RMT discussion starts at page 22.

SEC Filing - Portfolio as of 3/31/23. 

I have a immaterial overlap with my individual stock holdings,  entirely in the regional bank sector with 1 small ball exception. 

Sponsor's website: Royce Value Trust (RVT)

Data date of 6/5/23 Trade

Closing Net Asset value per share: $15.16

Closing Market Price: $13.13

Discount: -13.39%

3 Year Average Discount: -9.33%

Sourced: RVT - CEF Connect 

Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate (some recent ROC support)

To avoid ROC support, the fund must realize capital gains sufficient to cover the dividend.  Ordinary income will provide only minimal support. 

Last 4 Dividends: $1.13 per share, includes the $.25 per share dividend that will paid in the 2023 second quarter.  The quarterly rate has decreased in each of the past 4 quarters. 

Since the dividend is decreasing, I would not use the $1.13 per share number to calculate a dividend yield. 

Last Ex Dividend: 6/9/23 for $.25 per share. 

Royce Value Trust (RVT) Quote | Morningstar - Unrated. 

Largest Gain to Date: Item # 1 Sold 505+ RVT at $15.89 (8/3/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $435.93)

Second Largest Gain: +$190.93 

RVT Realized Gains to Date: $791.5

H. Added 5 CET at $35.48

Quote:  Central Securities Corp. Overview - Stock CEF

This fund publishes its net asset value per share only a weekly basis.

NAV per share as of 5/31/23: $42.26 

Management: Internal

Leverage: None

Website: Central Securities Corporation

CET SEC Filings

CET was founded in October 1929, just in time for the crash and Great Depression, but survived both when most CEFs collapsed within 3 years. The survivors did not use leverage to buy stocks. Some of the highly leveraged CEFs that failed owned other highly leveraged CEFs. They did not last long.

As of 12/31/22, net unrealized appreciation was $668.155+M, page 21. 

Holdings as of 3/31/23- SEC Filing 

Last DiscussedItem # 5.H. Added 3 CET at $34 (11/22/23 Post) 

New Average Cost per share: $34.89

Dividend History:

Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/23:

The largest holding, Plymouth Rock, is a privately owned P&C company that was acquired at a total cost of $.7M and was valued at $258.7M as of 3/31/23. CET currently owns about 23% of the stock and has occasionally sold shares back to Plymouth Rock. 

CET received $9.344+M in dividends from Plymouth in 2022, page 21 Annual Report. The method used to value Plymouth's stock is described at page 20. Using that model, the value of CET's Plymouth stock was reduced by $34.1+M last year SEC Filed Annual Report

Plymouth Rock 2022 Annual Report.pdf The company experienced its first loss since it was formed, primarily due to declines in the investment portfolio.

Principal Portfolio Changes in the 2023 1st quarter: 

CET Net Realized Gains in the 1st Q. =  $8.994+M SEC Filing 

Central Securities Corporation (CET)-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

I own 5 shares in another account that I intend to sell, as I continue to eliminate duplicate positions. 

I. Initiated MRCC - Bought 20 at 7.73

Quote: Monroe Capital Corp.  (MRCC)

Cost: $154.6 

Management: External

MRCC SEC Filings 

MRCC 2022 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 35 and ends at page 67)

Net Asset Value Per Share History: The risk is highlighted by the 10 year decline in NAV per share. 

3/31/23:   $10.29

12/31/22:  $10.39

12/31/21:  $11.51 

12/31/20   $11

12/31/19:  $12.2 

12/31/18:  $12.66

12/31/17:  $13.77

12/31/16:  $14.52

12/31/15:  $14.19

12/31/14:  $14.05

12/31/13:  $13.92

Public Offering Price: $15 per share, proceeds to MRCC at $14.72, Monroe Capital Corporation The external manager paid $.59 per share of the underwriter's discount. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share 

Monroe Capital (MRCC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

The dividend rate was cut from $.35 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. 

Yield at $7.73: 12.94%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/23

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): 

Net Investment Income  (NII): $6.6M

NII per share: $.31

Adjusted NII per share: $.32

Net Asset Value per share: $10.29

"The Company’s portfolio consists primarily of first lien loans, representing 83.7% of the portfolio as of March 31, 2023 . . As of March 31, 2023, the weighted average contractual and effective yield on the Company’s debt and preferred equity investments was 11.5% and 11.6% . . . Portfolio yield is calculated only on the portion of the portfolio that has a contractual coupon and therefore does not account for dividends on equity investments (other than preferred equity). As of March 31, 2023, 0.4% of the Company’s total investments at fair value were on non-accrual as compared to 0.5% as of December 31, 2022."

Payment-in-Kind (PIK) refers to interest paid in more debt rather than cash. I refer to PIK as pretend interest payments. PIK interest becomes real only when the debtor pays off the loan. Until that happens, PIK interest is not available to support the dividend. I would consequently exclude this "income" when evaluating current dividend coverage. 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (summary of investments starts at page 8)

MRCC Evaluation of Loan Credit Risks: 

P.69, 10-Q

J. Added to GRX in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 20 at $9.78

Quote: Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust Overview

Leveraged: Yes with preferred stock

Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/23:

SEC Filings

Website: Healthcare and Wellness Rx Trust

2022 SEC Filed Annual Report (preferred stock discussed at page 21, consists of 4M shares of 4% cumulative preferred stock, par value $10, that is subject to a mandatory redemption on 12/26/25)

SEC Filing - Holdings as of 3/31/23 (cost then at $183.4+M, value at $265.9+M)

Last DiscussedItem # 5.G. Added to GRX in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $9.9  (11/20/22 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $10.99 (100+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share (some recent ROC support)

I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at New AC = 5.46%  

Data Date of 6/7/23 Trade:

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $11.86

Closing Market Price: $9.8

Discount: -17.37%

Sourced: GRX-CEF Connect 

K. Added to ICMB - Bought 3 at $3.92


Quote: Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc. Overview

Cost: $11.76

ICMB SEC Filings

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 6/30/22 (risk summary starts at page 32 and ends at page 70)

Website: Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc.

Last DiscussedItem # 1.B. Bought 5 ICMB at $3.5 (4/29/23 Post)Item # 1.E. Added to ICMB - Bought 5 at $3.73 (4/8/23 Post)(discussion of the 2022 4th quarter report, Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2022, and Quarterly and Supplemental Distributions)

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket (this classification limits investment to $1,000 + any prior net realized gains).  

New Average cost per share: $4.73 (120+ shares)

Dividend (regular only): Quarterly at $.13 per share ($.52 annually), last reduced from $.15, which was reduced from $.25 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The penny rate was at $.3516 in 2016. 

Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. (ICMB) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Dividend HistoryHighly Unfavorable 

Dividend Yield at AC (regular dividend only): 10.99%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/15/23

Many of the problems originated with loans initially made by the prior external advisor that were later written down. The current advisor took over on 8/30/2019. 10-Q at page 13 

Net Asset Value per share history

 3/31/23:  $6.13

12/31/22: $6.36

12/31/21: $7.09

12/31/20: $7.84

9/30/19:  $10.19

8/30/19 Change in Management 

2014: Initial IPO at $15, SEC Filing The company was then called CM Finance. 

With this kind of history, the stock price will trade at a large discount to net asset value per share. Investors will assume that assets will continue to be incinerated and consequently will discount their current claimed values when setting a buy price. The question is whether the future prediction embedded in the current discount will prove to be unjustified or justified. 

A lot of the damage from bad loans is already reflected in the last reported net asset value per share. An improvement in the share price is not dependent IMO on the current dividend yield or the discount to net asset value per share, but on a long term improvement in operating results that substantially lowers the discount to net asset value per share buyers are willing to accept which has not yet happened.   

Annual average total return starting 1/1/15 through 6/8/23 = +1.3%; DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. Announces Financial Results for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2023, and Quarterly and Supplemental Distributions 

The supplemental dividend was for $.05 per share. 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (summary of investments starts at page 4)

Net investment income: $2.5M

The market capitalization at a $3.9 price is only about $57M. 

NII per share: $.18

"As of March 31, 2023, the Company's investment portfolio consisted of investments in 35 portfolio companies, of which 90.6% were first lien investments and 9.4% were equity, warrants, and other investments. The Company's debt portfolio consisted of 99.6% floating rate investments and 0.4% fixed rate investments."

ICMB Assessment of Loan Credit Risks: 

P. 42, 10-Q

"Net realized loss on investments totaled $26.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2023, primarily due to the write off of our investments in the American Teleconferencing Services, Ltd. (d/b/a Premiere Global Services, Inc.) 1st and 2nd lien term loan", page 43 10-Q.

L. Added $50 to FMAGX at $10.82

Quote: Fidelity Magellan Fund Overview 

FMAGX Page at Morningstar

The Morningstar category is Large Growth. 

Expense Ratio: .52%

FMAGX – Portfolio – Morningstar (top 25 holdings)

Sponsor's website: FMAGX - Fidelity Investments

61 Holdings as of 4/30/23 

Some Top Holdings:

M. Added $100 to FSPHX at $28.31:

Quote: Fidelity Select Health Care Portfolio Overview 

Fidelity® Select Health Care (FSPHX) Portfolio | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Sponsor's website: Fidelity ® Select Health Care Portfolio

Expense Ratio: .69%

Dividends: Expenses will eat up a significant amount of ordinary income received by the fund. Consequently, the major source for dividends will be short and long term capital gains which will be highly erratic.  

No ordinary dividend was paid in 2022: 

Capital gain sourced dividends: 

Top Holdings as of 4/30/23: 

Fidelity offers a health care ETF which has a .084% expense ratio: 


5 year annual average total returns through 6/7/23:  
FHLC = 9.88%
FSPHX = 9.05%

FHLC has .606% lower expense ratio.  

FHLC will generally have a lower annual average dividend per share and is consequently more tax efficient for a buy and hold investors. Fidelity® MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

N. Added to CLPR - Bought 10 at $5.55


Quote: Clipper Realty, Inc. (primarily a NYC apartment REIT)

Cost: $55.45

Management: Internal

5 Year Chart


The decline in 2020 was related to the pandemic's impact on rent collection. 

New Average cost per share: $6.32 (115+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.095 per share ($.38 annually)


I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at New AC = 6.01%

Last Ex Dividend: 5/12/23 (owned 91+ as of)

Last DiscussedItem # 2.H. Bought 10 CLPR at $5.04 (5/27/23 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filing

I do not have access to any analyst reports. I am aware that Raymond James recently upgraded this stock to outperform with a $7 price target. 

O. Added to FSK - Bought 2 at $19.88


Quote: FS KKR Capital Corp. - Externally Managed BDC

Cost: $39.76



New Average cost per share: $19.65 (80+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/9/23 after add

Dividend (regular only): Quarterly at $.64 per share ($2.56 annually)


Some special dividend have been paid.  

Yield at $19.65 (regular only): 13.03%

Next Ex Dividend: 6/13/23 (regular and special). In addition to the regular $.64 per share quarterly dividend, this payment will add a 6 cent per share special dividend. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/23): SEC Filing 

NII per share: $.81, adjusted to $.78
Net Asset Value per share: $24.89


Discount to NAV per share at AC per share = 21.05%

Goal: Any total return prior any ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis  in excess of the dividends. 

3. Corporate Bonds: +$12,000 in principal amount 

I can find the relevant FINRA page when I have the CUSIP number.

A. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.7% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/24 at a Total Cost of  98.454 - IB Account:

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR) 

ETR 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (Entergy Arkansas results start at page 80; revenues  of $582.7+M, net income of $59.357M for the quarter)

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Prospectus 

First Mortgage Lien Bond Attaching to substantially all assets  

Credit Ratings: A2/A 

YTM at Total Cost: 5.338%

Current Yield at TC = 3.76%

I now own 2 bonds. 

I also own the exchange traded EAI in several accounts. That one is a $25 par value First Mortgage bond issued by Entergy Arkansas. Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI) I will keep my exposure light and will trade EAI given the interest rate risk inherent in a potential 2066 maturity. Last discussed in Item #4.A. (5/13/23 Post) 

I also own other $1K par value FM bonds issued by this company. I pick up most of the long dated maturity yield in short term FM bonds.  

I have 5 Entergy Mississippi $1K par value FM bonds maturing on 7/1/23.  

B. Bought 2 Duke Energy 3.75% SU Maturing on 4/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.604

Issuer: Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - Utility Holding Company. 

DUK SEC Filings 

DUK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

DUK SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

I no longer own the common stock, preferring instead to own Duke's short term senior unsecured debt.

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 5.425%

Current Yield at TC = 3.8%

C. Bought 1 Southern Company 4.475% Junior Bond Maturing on 8/1/24 at a Total Cost of 98.781


Issuer: Southern Co. (SO) - Utility Holding Company

SO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SO SEC Filings 

Prospectus 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB 

YTM at Total Cost:  5.573%

Current Yield at TC = 4.53%

Last Bond Offering (May 2023): Prospectus$750M 5.2% SU Maturing in 2033 

D. Bought 1 Fulton Financial 4.5% Junior Bond Maturing on 11/15/24 at a Total Cost of 95.602

Issuer: Fulton Financial Corp. (FULT)

FULT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Rating:  Baa1

YTM at Total Cost: 7.775%

Current Yield at TC = 4.71%

I now own 2 bonds. 

Prior Purchase: Item # 3.B (TC at 96.075; YTM then at 7.315%)

E. Bought 2 CNA Financial 3.95% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.488

Issuer: CNA Financial Corp.  (CNA) - Insurance Sector

CNA | CNA Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CNA SEC Filings 

CNA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

New FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-

YTM at Total Cost: 5.618%

Current Yield at TC = 4.01%

Last Bond Offering(May 2023): Prospectus for $400M 5% SU Maturing in 2033

F. Bought 2 NNN REIT 3.9% SU Maturing on 6/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.204

Issuer: NNN REIT Inc. (NNN) 

NNN SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

This SU bond is the next one to mature: 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 at p. 27 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 5.733%

Current Yield at TC = 3.97%

G. Bought 2 Valley National 4.55% Junior Bonds Maturing on 6/30/25 at a Total Cost of 92.752

Issuer: Valley National Bancorp (VLY) - A Bank Holding Company

VLY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (investment security information can be found at page 18; 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/30/23 Valley asserted in this release that deposits remained relatively stable ($47.59+B as of 31/31/22 compared to $47.636+B as of 12/31/22) 

I discussed this earnings report here: Item # 2.G. Added to VLY - Bought 4 at $6.98; 1 at $6.7 (5/20/23 Post) 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Rating: BBB-

YTM at Total Cost: 8.447%

Current Yield at TC = 4.906%

The YTM is more consistent with a junk rating. 

As previously discussed, I would not anticipate much, if any recovery, in the event the FDIC seizes VLY's operating bank and the holding company files for bankruptcy. That would generally be true for both a junior bond or equity preferred stock issued by any bank holding company. 

While anything is possible, I do not see any justification for the credit concern expressed in this junior bond's YTM, based on the financials filed through the 2023 first quarter. The fear is that few, if any investors, expected the rapid collapses of the Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic Banks. Those banks were profitable until there were massive deposit withdrawals. No bank could probably withstand the kind of deposit flight that occurred at those banks. 

H. Bought 1 Federal Realty 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/24 at a Total Cost of 98.853

Issuer: Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) 

FRT SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/23 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/23 (debt listed at page 25, this SU is the next one that matures)

Prospectus 

New Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost:  5.916%

Current Yield at TC: 4%

I now own 5 bonds. 

Last Bond Offering (10/2020): Prospectus for $400M of 1.25% SU notes maturing in 2026. 

4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000 in principal amount. 

June Treasury Yield Curve: 


The highest yield is the 4 month T Bill at 5.45%. The lowest yield is the 10 year treasury note at 3.75%. 

10 Year Treasury Note Minus the 3 month T Bill Chart 1982 to Date: 

A. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 6/5/23 Auction

Matures on 12/7/23

182 Day Bill 

Interest $53.08

Investment Rate: 5.483%

B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 6/7/23 Auction


Matures on 10/10/23 

119 Day Bill

Interest: $51.57 

Investment Rate: 5.379%


5. CD - FDIC Insured: $7,000

A. Bought 1 First Horizon 5.35% CD Maturing on 3/8/24:  

Interest Paid at Maturity. 

B. Bought 1 Zions Bancorp 5.4% CD Maturing on 6/13/24

Interest paid at maturity. 

C. Bought 2 Southern First 5.35% CDs Maturing on 2/23/24

Interest Paid Monthly

Operating subsidiary for the bank holding company Southern First Bancshares Inc.  (SFST) 

D. Bought 2 Trustmark Bank 5.4% CDs Maturing on 12/14/23

Interest Paid at Maturity. 

Operating subsidiary for the bank holding company Trustmark Corp (TRMK) 

E. Bought 1 Southern First 5.35% CD Maturing on 3/22/24

Interest Paid Monthly.  

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.   

14 comments:

  1. So 30+10 more days below 20 needed to move into stable VIX pattern. And there's already move below 15.

    Humm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The formation of a Stable Vix Pattern looks likely which, along with other reasons, will cause me to increase my stock allocation in the coming weeks.

      The other reasons include valuations and dividend yields in several sectors, generally positive economic data, and the positive 200 SMA line movement for the S & P 500.

      Using a 1 year YF chart for the S&P 500, the 200 day SMA was pierced to the upside in late March and has been in a steady rise since then with the line closing last Friday at 4,152.

      Increases in my stock allocation will be severely restrained given the risk free alternatives and my main investment objective being preservation of capital followed by income generation.

      The Treasury will auction the 1 year T Bill tomorrow, which I will buy. That bill is now trading at a 5.2% yield. I am also participating in today's auctions. The 6 month bill is now trading at a 5.39% yield.

      While I believe that the FED will not raise the FF rate this week, I see little chance for a rate cut this year unless core PCE inflation is in a persistent decline, falling to less than a 3% annual rate, and the economy weakens significantly. Or put another way, a 4% annual core PCE inflation late this year, and anything close to 2% real GDP growth, will more likely lead to one or more .25% rate increase with the odds of a decrease being close to nil with those kind of numbers.

      Delete
  2. I didn't realize the 200 day had also shifted. That's important info.

    FG is pegging the 4300 as the indicator. If it stays above decisively, then we shifted to bull.

    It would be highly unusual to have all these pointers towards a recession, like inverted yield curve and nothing happening. But I suppose this time is different.. because of what's going into it, the high employment and and inflation triggered by the COVID money.

    Today's movement is a bit curious. It's up about .5 on NASDAQ, 0.2 on it s&p...

    Yet, futures are over 1%. Meanwhile Vix's also up . 74%

    There's a 15min lag on finviz between futures and market value (one's real time). But this has retained the divergence for over an hour.

    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The primary cause for the yield inversion may be the Federal Reserve keeping ZIRP until March 2022 and then rapidly raising the Federal Funds rate from 0 to .25% to the current 5%-5.25%. That is going to cause the 1 month to 1 year T bills to rise in tandem. But, inflation expectations remain anchored at close to 2.2% over the next ten years, as reflected in the 10 year TIP breakeven inflation rate which holds down the longer term treasury note and bond yields along with concerns that the FED will precipitate a recession.

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

      In that scenario, the inversion is not reflecting a consensus opinion about an upcoming recession but only the Fed's manipulation of the yield curve through its monetary policies.

      Delete
  3. I thought it was usually the Fed that caused the inversion, because the economy had heated up, and they wanted to slow it down. Or some other complication that they were mucking in but not able to time precisely, which then led to a recession.

    Just a month ago there was almost universal agreement that a recession was coming and a crash. Now there's almost universal agreement that the bear is over. Based on significant factors like the Golden Cross and 200 moving average and decent earnings. Vix under 15 is compelling too. The model is 90 days, as in 3 months? And 50 days isn't that close, but that's worked for the model before. And 2008 you'd started buying in before 90 days.

    I'm at a loss. There are a few data points this week so I'm going to wait at least through the week.

    Also went last week to my dad's, for surgery he's having. The surgery itself was for AFib and went fine. But there were complications from the anesthesia. So it's taken a number of days to be out of emergency rooms and not sleeping in the hospital on the couch or a chair. So I'm inclined to wait till I can focus better. I think it would be wise to find some out of favor stocks at this point to hedge against the rally.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The divergence of stocks and favor and stocks that aren't, still needs to get resolved before this is a bull.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. divergence of stocks in favor and stocks that aren't.

      The voice recorder has a mind of it's own. I didn't catch it.

      Delete
    2. Land: Through yesterday, the S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) had a YTD total return of 14.76%:

      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/quote

      The vast majority of that gain was fueled by just 5 stocks.

      https://www.axios.com/2023/06/01/sp500-tech-companies-stock-price

      Delete
  5. I didn't get to listen to today's fed. Looks like the market didn't like the wording. But then decided it wasn't that big a deal.

    Recessions aren't that news-based if the news is anticipated. Even if it's a raid hike when a rate freeze is expected. Or vice versa. So if there's going to be a move down, there's going to have to be something to trigger it or a general malaise in the economy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The initial downdraft in stocks after the FED's rate announcement was probably due to the Dot Plot. 12 Fed members, a clear majority, believe the FF midpoint will be at least 5.625% or higher by year end. The market was anticipating no worse than flat with the current range or a cut.

      I would expect the FED to warn about more rate hikes in the event inflation remains problematic. That is hardly surprising. I continue to believe that a rate cut by year end is unlikely unless the economy is clearly in a recession or inflation is back down near the FED's goal which is not the case now and is not likely IMO this year. So I am playing the short end of the yield curve now where I pick up the most yield. I will worry about later- later.

      Delete
  6. Witching Friday is over. The market's down and so is the VIX. Under 15 on close.

    Rates do seem likely to stay up for longer and rise. Inflation's been sticky enough.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: In my recently published post, I discuss the inflation issue and the relationship between inflation and money supply. For the reasons discussed there, I would view another rate hike this year, or at least prior to November, as a mistake.

      Delete
  7. Daniel Snyder on Seeking Alpha send an email with info he noticed but isn't sure if it means anything.

    "This is not what market participants are saying on TV or in their research newsletters. These are the plays that have real capital already on the line.

    They are heavily shorting the SPDR® S&P Retail ETF (XRT), the SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), and the SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).

    The XRT has 260.33% of it's shares outstanding short!

    The XHB has 76.23% of it's shares outstanding short.

    And, the KRE (even after the SVB collapse) still has 68.91% of it's shares outstanding short. "

    There isn't an article to link to, but the list of most shorted stocks is:
    https://seekingalpha.com/screeners/etfs/9ecdd43380-Most-Shorted-ETFs?messageid=premium_monthly_engagement_mobile_and_desktop_May_2023

    ReplyDelete
  8. I have published a new post:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/06/avk-btz-clpr-cto-dcom-dea-fsk-icmb-jqc.html

    ReplyDelete