Economy:
Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M09 Results On an unadjusted basis, the producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.8% for the 12 months ending in September. On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis, the PPI was unchanged.
Trump tariffs: Trade rep Lighthizer warns Wall Street to be prepared Lighthizer told the audience that Trump will implement his tariff proposals shortly after taking office. In TrumpWorld, the substantial increases in tariffs are not inflationary, will not hurt U.S. exporters as foreign countries retaliate, and are equivalent to free money. Trump says he will 'end' inflation. Economists say he'd make it worse, published at USA Today on 9/15/25; Trump Trade And Immigration Policies Spell Higher Prices, Less Growth, published at Forbes on 9/8/24; TPC: Trump Tariffs Would Raise Household Taxes And Slow Imports | Tax Policy Center, published on 8/15/24; Trump’s Tariff Would Cost the Typical American Household Roughly $1,500 Each Year, published on 3/27/24; A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan – ITEP Trump's tax and tariff plan would disadvantage his low and middle income supporters the most.
Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent fall after China press briefing disappoints on stimulus (10/14/24)
My Video: Average Annual Monthly Job Gains Last 3 Years Obama Compared to the 1st 3 years of Trump - YouTube
Monthly Averages of New Jobs:
Sourced from Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
In Thousands |
Obama:
2014: 249,917
2015: 226,417
2016: 193,917
Three Year Average: 223,417
Trump:
2017: 175,916 (including January and at 171,363 excluding)
2018: 190,250
2019: 165,667
Three Year Average: 177,278 (decline of 46,139 per month compared to the last 3 years of Obama)
Biden:
2023: 251,083 (after recovery of losses related to the pandemic)
2024: 200,444 (first 9 months, trending higher with August and September subject to revision when the BLS reports the October number)
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $12,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $16,000 in principal amount
I am behind in discussing my corporate bond purchases.
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks: -$3,569.44
(consisting of -$3,699.52 in proceeds minus $130.08 in purchases)
Outflow Canadian Stocks: -C$5,013 (converted to US$3,660 for allocation purposes only)
Outflow Stock Funds: -$556.34
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$7,785.78
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$46,666.56 (this number would be increased by a few thousand for trades that have not been discussed)
The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: September 2024 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: September 2024 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
P/E: So Many Choices: Part 1 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
The CME FEDWatch Tool has a 90+% probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by 25 basis points next month. CME FedWatch - CME Group
Treasury Yield Curve October 2024:
Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.27%, the market's current prediction of the average annual CPI rate over the next 10 years.
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Portfolio Items: I am finding it increasingly difficult to find stocks that I am willing to buy.
Many of the CDs offered at Fidelity have limited call protection and can be called by the issuer prior to maturity.
That is also the case with senior unsecured bonds offered under Fidelity's Corporate Notes program that are original issuances sold at par value.
Many of those SU bonds that I bought are being called now. This was called earlier this week:
6.05% Coupon/ Maturing on 7/12/2027 |
Interest was paid quarterly with call protection ending in January 2024.
This bond was bought on 7/7/23. The yield was better than similarly rated bonds that could have been bought then that matured on 10/15/24.
++
I own shares in W. P. Carey Inc. in 4 taxable accounts. Last Discussed at Item # 1.A. Added to WPC - Bought 5 at $54.75; 5 at $53.3 (4/19/24 Post)
For the taxable accounts, I am reinvesting the dividend only in my Fidelity account:
I will frequently own the same stock is more than 1 account where I elect to receive cash on one or more positions and then reinvest the dividend payments in another account. This is part of a somewhat complex risk reduction strategy in common stock positions, done to avoid losses on the shares purchased with dividends by taking cash payments but accepting the risk that the dividend will lose its value due to share depreciation in one account.
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Trump and His Party:
President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
There is a good chance that voters will re-elect Trump for another 4 year term. Those voters are telling us who they are with those votes.
Trump suggests using military against ‘enemy from within’ on Election Day | CNN Politics Trump: I think the bigger problem are the people from within. We have some very bad people. We have some sick people. Radical left lunatics. I think it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen" He was also referring to political opposition leaders and specifically identified Adam Schiff, who will soon be elected a U.S. senator as one of Trump's enemies from within. This is of course fascist rhetoric. Trump's military solution for 'enemies within' is what a fascist might propose
Trump's top general Mark Milley calls former president a "fascist" and a "dangerous" threat
My Video: Mark Milley Says Trump is a "Fascist to The Core" My Historical Analysis - YouTube
'I will not protect you': Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies - YouTube
Trump’s former defense secretary fears he would try to use military against US citizens - YouTube
Things Fascists Say: Enemy From Within - YouTube
Lying Is Loyalty in Trump’s GOP | Vanity Fair
Before hosting fundraisers for Trump's re-election effort, two Silicon Valley billionaires, David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya, stated during a podcast that he was clearly unfit to be President and one said that he needed to be in prison. Trump’s Tech Bro Fanboys Wanted Him Jailed After Jan. 6th; David Sacks, All In Podcast Torched Trump After January 6; Trump’s Biggest Donors Wanted Him Jailed. Called Him “Maniac,” “Scumbag” - YouTube
Elon Musk Is Going All In to Elect Donald Trump - The New York Times
Steve Bannon Has Called His “Army” to Do Battle—No Matter Who Wins in November | Vanity Fair
The chemtrail conspiracy theory has its moment in the sun amid hurricanes Milton and Helene | CNN
Rumors on X Are Becoming the Right’s New Reality - The Atlantic Elon Musk contributes to the dissemination of Fake News, fact free conspiracy theories and hate speech and provides a platform for like minded people to steer people away from facts, reality, and informed political discourse. Each person needs to make a decision IMO whether they are going to fund Musk by being on his "X" social media site or even visiting that site, owning Tesla common stock or bonds, and buying a Tesla. I personally would not put a penny in his pocket.
Trump and Hitler: A Comparative Study in Lying - Amazon.com: Books
Trump wages campaign against real-time fact checks - The Washington Post
North Carolina: FEMA forced to pause Hurricane Helene aid due to reported threats toward responders; Hurricane recovery officials in N.C. relocated amid report of ‘armed militia,’ email shows - The Washington PostExcluding Asheville, N.C., the rural areas in western North Carolina are heavily Trumpified including Rutherford and Ashe Counties where some heavily armed residents are reportedly roaming in pick up trucks hunting FEMA workers.
Another Trump Clemency Recipient Faces Domestic Violence-Related Charges - The New York Times
Questions mounting over Trump's mental acuity after derailed event turns into dance fest - YouTube
Look How BONKERS Trump's Become! There's No Excuse! (w/ Tom Nichols) | The Bulwark Podcast - YouTube
Trump’s MENTAL COLLAPSE Gets Worse at Chicago Event - YouTube
Christians flock to Washington to pray for America to turn to God — by electing Trump The gathering was organized by the self proclaimed prophet Lou Engel who said God told him to organize the event. Lou Engle - Wikipedia
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Putin and His Nation:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Satellite Imagery Shows Nine Oil Tanks Destroyed at Feodosia Oil Depot After Drone Strike - YouTube (10/14/24)
Bob Woodward: ‘Putin is the Adolf Hitler of our century’ - YouTube
Putin is a fascist using the traditional definition of that word. His government is a combination of a Kleptocracy and fascism.
Putin’s Russia: A Moderate Fascist State by Vladislav Inozemtsev - Center for Transatlantic Relations; How Putin’s Russia embraced fascism while preaching anti-fascism-Atlantic Council; Putin’s fascism is on blatant display in Russia; Opinion | Russia’s War on Ukraine Shows That It Is Fascist - The New York Times (Timothy Snyder); Russian fascism: the six principles of Putin’s nationalist ideology; Fascism - Wikipedia
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1. Eliminated EMA:CA - Sold 100 at C$50.14 - Interactive Broker Account (C$1 Commission):
Quote: Emera Inc. Stock Quote (Canada: Toronto) - Utility Holding Company
Proceeds: C$5,013.
Website: Home| Emera
Emera owns utility companies operating primarily in the U.S. and Canada. I decided to sell my shares before Hurricane Milton hit Florida's west coast given Emera's ownership of Tampa Electric. I am also in a short term trading mode anyways for this stock.
U.S.: Tampa Electric; Peoples Gas
Emera Announces Sale of New Mexico Gas Company to Bernhard Capital Partners (8/5/24)("aggregate transaction value of $1.252 billion USD, including the assumption of approximately $500 million USD of debt and subject to customary closing adjustments. . . Emera acquired NMGC as part of its acquisition of the TECO group of companies in 2016. Under Emera’s ownership, NMGC has grown and remains the largest natural gas utility in New Mexico, serving over 545,000 customers and safely managing more than 12,000 miles of transmission and distribution pipelines.")
Canada: Emera Newfoundland & Labrador; Nova Scotia Power
Emera New Brunswick owns a natural gas pipeline
Emera Caribbean is the parent company of utilities that generate and deliver electricity in the Bahamas, Barbados, and St. Lucia.
Other Subsidiaries: Emera Energy; Emera Technologies
Emera Announces Strategic Reallocation of Capital to Drive Long-Term Growth; Updates Growth Guidance (6/28/24) Emera guided E.P.S. growth of 5-7% through 2027 and rate based growth of 7%-8% through 2029. 75% of the rate base growth is expected from new capital investments in Tampa Electric and Peoples Gas, both operating in Florida. Once capital investments are made, the utility operating companies will request the regulatory commissions to include those costs in the rate base and to grant a rate of return on those assets. The company expects to invest C$8.8B in the 2024-2026 period under its current capital investment plan. The dividend increases will be restrained to 1% or 2% per year given the capital investments through 2027.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1. Bought Back 100 EMA:CA at C$46.61 (7/19/24 Post) I discussed the first quarter earnings report in that post. Emera Reports 2024 First Quarter Financial Results | Emera
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2. Sold 100 EMR:CA at C$62.77 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = C$457)
Profit Snapshot: +C$351
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): Emera Reports 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results | Emera
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
Operating Revenues: $1.617B
"Adjusted EPS decreased $0.07 to $0.53 compared to adjusted EPS of $0.60 in Q2 2023."
Reported E.P.S. included a gain on the sale of Labrador Island Link of $107M.
Other Owned Emera Securities:
2 Emera Finance 3.55% SU Bonds maturing on 6/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org, guaranteed by Emera, that I discussed buying in here: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Emera Finance SU bonds at a Total cost of 96.129 (7/12/24 Post)
200 shares of the Emera Reset equity preferred stock, EMA-PC.TO, that reset its coupon for 5 years last August at 6.434% paid on a C$25 par value. Item # 2.A. Added 100 EMA.PRC:CA at C$19.7 (12/23/23 Post); Item # 1. Bought Back 100 EMA.PRC:CA at C$18.45 (10/18/22 Post)
Realized EMAPRC:CA Gains to Dates: +C$1,169 (snapshots in Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities)
2. Eliminated CLPR - Sold 294+ Shares at $5.83- Fidelity Account:
Quote: Clipper Realty, Inc.
Proceeds: $1,718.67
10-Q - List of properties at page 7.
Website: Clipper Realty
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$154.52 (some shares were sold at a loss)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.095 per share ($.38 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/24 (owned all as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in CLPR - Sold 40 at $5.83 (10/3/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.24) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
As noted in that post, I am concerned about Clipper's Brooklyn office exposure and whether there is much, if any equity in the real estate after subtracting the debt, an issue confirmed by the market capitalization. I have nothing further to add to my recent discussion.
3. Small Ball Sells (generally defined as trades of less than $1,000):
A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Proceeds: $637.86
I have decided to go with the KRG SU bonds that provide my with a higher yield and is more "safe" than the common shares. See Item # 4.F. below.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 KRG at $20.59 (3/22/24 Post); Item # 1.H. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $20.9 (3/1/24 Post)' Item # 1.A. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $21.25 (1/26/24 Post); Item # 2.F. Started KRG - Bought 5 at $22.49; 5 at $22.1 (1/6/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$112.08
The dividend was slashed from $.3175 to $.052 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment. This was in response to the pandemic. Still, I view the slash and the failure to return to the pre-slash dividend as major negatives. The interest payment on senior unsecured debt can not be cut.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/24 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
I discuss this report in this post: Item # 2.B. Sold 5 KRG at $26.84 (9/19/24 Post) (profit snapshot = $21.8)
B. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $30.36:
Quote: Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
Proceeds: $151.83
CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Profit Snapshot: $94.9
This was part of a 100 share lot bought in April 2020, as discussed in my last post.
Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41 (5/9/2020 Post)
Average Cost per share: $11.41, no change (90 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/11/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.40 per share
Recent Dividends in USDs: Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) Stock Dividend History & Date
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $29.29 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.44) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
MFC Realized Gains to Date: +$1,024.29
C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31:
Quote: Williams Cos. (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure
Proceeds: $508.04
Profit Snapshots: $267.84
New Average Cost per share: $23.91 (75+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/16/24 after last pare |
The AC was reduced 1 cent from $23.92.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually)
Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend History
Yield at $23.91 AC per share: 7.9465%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24 (owned 95+ as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots $251.11)
Last Earnings Report: I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
WMB Realized Gains to Date: +$1,010. (excludes realized gains in my Roth IRA accounts)
D. Pared MRCC - Sold 20 at $8.05:
Quote: Monroe Capital Corp. (MRCC)Proceeds: $161.1
Management: External
I classify MRCC as a deservedly hated BDC.
IPO (10/12): at $15 per share, Monroe Capital Corporation
SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 36 and ends at page 73)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to MRCC - Bought 10 at $7.17 - Schwab Account (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.K. Added to MRCC - Bought 5 at $7.05 (10/21/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$6.05
I sold my highest cost shares purchased at $7.73. Item # 2. Started MRCC - Bought 20 at $7.73 (6/10/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $7.11 (30 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/10/24 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $7.36.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Yield at New AC = 14.06%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24 (own all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Net Investment Income per share: $.30
Adjusted NII per share: $.31
Net Asset value per share: $9.2, down from $9.3 as of 3/31/24.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Summary of investments starts at page 7. Loans that are on nonaccrual status are indicated by (16).
Weighted average yield of investments:
Page 76, 10-Q |
Company assessments of credit risks:
Pages 78-79, 10-Q |
Company Assessment of Interest Rate Risks:
10-Q at page 102 |
Net investment income decreases as interest rates decline due to floating rate loans priced at spreads to short term rate. This is a common problem for BDC's now.
Goal: The goal for any BDC stock purchase is to realize any gain in excess of the dividends paid, no matter how small.
E. Pared Duplicate Position in KBWY - Sold 10 at $20.54; 17+ at $20.63 - Fidelity Account:
Proceeds: $556.44
Sponsor's website: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF
Expense Ratio: .35%
Top 10 Holdings as of 10/11/24:
I have significant overlap with individual holdings.
Profit Snapshot: Net of +$11.39 (excludes 5 shares sold on 8/13/24)
New Average cost per share this account: $17.17 (16+ shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/11/24 after last pare |
KBWY Stock Dividend History & Date
Last 12 Dividends per share: $1.57, rounded down
Yield at $17.17 Using $1.57 annual: 9.15%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/23/24 (owned all as of)
KBWY Morningstar Page: Currently rated 1 star.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend yield.
F. Pared HIW - Sold 10 at $34.31, and 5 at $35.77 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW) - Office REIT
I sold my highest cost 15 shares. This is part of my risk reduction strategy.
Proceeds: $522.02
Management: Internal
HIW is the only office REIT that did not cut its dividend in response to the pandemic.
This REIT owns, develops, acquires, leases and manages properties primarily in the best business districts of Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville, Orlando, Raleigh, Richmond and Tampa." The exposure to those southern cities helped the company weather the pandemic and its aftermath better than REITs focused on the West Coast (particularly SF), Chicago, the NYC metropolitan area, and other major east cities.
Rental Revenue by Market:
In Thousands |
As of June 30, 2024, this REIT, through its operating subsidiary, "owned or had an interest in
The properties are mostly located in suburban areas rather than in downtowns.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $18.13, 1 at $17.93; 3 at $17.74 (12/2/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $20.2; 1 at $19.85; 1 at $19.31; 1 at $18.87 (10/7/23 Post)
Website: Highwoods
Profit Snapshots: +$50.6
New Average cost per share: $20.9 (4o+ Shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 10/15/24 after second pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $23.74.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 per share, last increased from $.48 for the 2021 third quarter payment. Unique for a dividend increase in 2021.
New Dollar Exposure (cost): $849.67 down from $1,371.69 prior to selling 15 shares, or about 38%. This is just how I think.
I am no longer reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at New AC of $20.9: 9.57%
Up from 8.42% prior to selling the highest cost 15 shares.
Increased the dividend yield, realized a gain, did not create much of a tax gain which is also relevant, and decreased my risk through lower a lower dollar exposure.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/19/24 (owned all as of) HIW Announces Second Quarter 2024 Results.pdf
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
Revenues: $204.738M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.59
FFO per share: $.98
GAAP to FFO Reconciliation:
The two largest adjustments were to add back the noncash depreciation expense and to deduct the gains from property sales.
2024 FFO per share guidance: $3.54-$3.62
End of quarter occupancy: 88.5%
Last Elimination: Item # 1.I. Eliminated HIW - Sold 7 at $47.22 (2/3/22 Post)
4. Corporate Bonds:
I am targeting for purchase corporate bonds that mature between 9/1/25 through 12/31/26.
A. Bought 2 Enbridge 4.25% SU Maturing on 12/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.325:
Issuer: Enbridge Inc (ENB)
I own the common stock. {Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in ENB - Sold 20 at $36.2 in Vanguard Account (6/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.47)}
ENB SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.581%
Current Yield at TC = 4.279%
I had 6 Enbridge SU bonds mature in February 2024.
My largest dollar position in ENB securities is 600 shares of reset equity preferred stock ENB-PP.TO. {Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. (10/3/24 Post)}
B. Bought 2 Canadian Pacific Railway 3.125% SU Maturing on 6/1/26 at a Total Cost of 97.646 - IB Account:
Issuer: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP)
CP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 6/30/24
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report Map of properties at page 24.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.626%
Current Yield at TC = 3.2%
C. Bought 2 Southern Power 4.15% SU Maturing on 12/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.5:
Issuer: Southern Power is a wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company the Southern Co. (SO)
Home | Southern Power This company owns and operates solar, wind and gas generating facilities.
Southern Company SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
SO 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 Operating results of Southern Power can be found at pages 31-35.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.6%
Current Yield at TC = 4.171%
D. Bought 2 Lowe's 3.375% SU Maturing on 9/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.05:
Issuer: Lowe's Cos. (LOW)
LOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
LOW SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 8/2/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.42%
Current Yield at TC = 3.407%
E. Bought 2 Amcor Flexibles 3.1% SU Maturing on 9/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.096:
Issuer: A subsidiary who guarantees the notes
I own the common stock.
This bond was originally issued by Bemis which was acquired by Amcor. Acquisition of Bemis complete
AMCR SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 6/30/24
SEC Annual Report for the F/Y ending 6/30/24 Page 36 references the Amcor Flexibles SU notes are guaranteed "by its parent entity, Amcor plc, and the subsidiary guarantors Amcor Pty Ltd, Amcor Finance (USA), Inc., Amcor Group Finance plc, and Amcor UK Finance plc. The two notes issued by Amcor UK Finance plc are guaranteed by its parent entity, Amcor plc, and the subsidiary guarantors Amcor Pty Ltd, Amcor Flexibles North America, Inc., Amcor Finance (USA), Inc., and Amcor Group Finance plc."
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
I own 4 Amcor 4% SU bonds that mature on 5/17/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org
F. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4% SU Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.392:
Issuer: Operating entity of Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) who does not guarantee the note. Prospectus at page S-3.
KRG SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.864%
Current Yield at TC: 4.065%
I now own 4 bonds.
I own 6 Kite Realty 4% bonds that mature on 3/15/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org That bond was originally issue by Retail Properties of America that was acquired by Kite in 2021. Kite Realty Group Announces Closing of $7.5 Billion Merger with Retail Properties of America: Creates a Top 5 Open-Air, Grocery-Anchored Shopping Center REIT It will be the next SU bond to mature, see page 20 10-Q.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus for $350M in 4.95% SU Maturing in 2031 The proceeds will be use to pay off the SU note maturing on 3/15/25 (page S-10). I may receive the $6,000 in principal amount prior to maturity resulting from an early redemption. There is an incentive to redeem early when the issuer has already sold bonds to pay off another, as in this case, and there is no make whole penalty for an early redemption.
G. Bought 1 AvalonBay 3.5% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.892 - IB Account:
Issuer: Avalonbay Communities Inc. (AVB) - Apartment REIT
I do not have a position in the common stock.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.538%
Current Yield at TC = 3.539%
I have 3 AvalonBay SU bonds maturing on 11/15/24 and 3 more that mature on 6/1/2025. I am starting to push out maturities with this first purchase of a AVB bond maturing in November 2025 and will be looking to add to that one when and if the price declines.
Last Bond Offering (5/24): Prospectus for $400M 5.35% SU maturing in 2034
H. Bought 1 UDR 3.5% SU Maturing on 1/15/28 at a Total Cost of 96.636:
Issuer: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT
See Item # 5.A. below.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.621%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.622%
I now own 2 bonds. So far, I have been able to average down on UDR bonds by buying 1 bond lots at the best ask price. I am also nibbling on the common shares.
I. Bought 2 Piedmont Natural Gas 3.6% SU Maturing on 9/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.043:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.721%
Current Yield at TC = 3.635%
I now own 3 bonds.
5. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added to UDR - Bought 3 at $43.36:
Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REITCost: $130.08
New Average Cost per share: $44.82 (15 shares)
Price as of 10/16/24 Close |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.425 per share ($1.7 annually)
Yield at New AC: 3.79%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/10/24 (owned 12 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental Financial Data. I discussed the last earnings report in a recent post.Item # 3.A. Started UDR - Bought 5 at $45.95; 1 at $45.37; 1 at $45.14 (10/3/24 Post)
6. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 11/15/24 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 1/16/25
Interest: $57.06
Investment Rate: 4.631%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 11/15/24 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 4/17/25
Interest: $43.17
Investment Rate: 4.425%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/16/24 Auction:
119 Day BillMatures on 2/18/25
Interest: $73.05
Investment Rate: 4.548%
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The ten year treasury yield is up 10 basis points so far today, now trading at a 4.1% yield.
ReplyDeleteSmall Caps: Down
Large Caps: Up
QQQ: Up .73%
IWM: Down .54%
As a general matter, the smaller companies are far more dependent on bank credit facilities priced at spreads to short term rates (prime or a SOFR rate). The 3 month treasury bill is currently up 1.5 basis points.
Small company debt borrowings are not that related to the ten year treasury yield but the knee jerk reaction will often be a decline in a small cap stock index when the ten year treasury yield rises.
The retail sales report early today is most likely the cause for rates ticking up a bit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/us-treasury-yields-investors-await-key-data-.html
There is also a slight uptick in the probability that the FED will remain on hold when it meets in November.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The treasury will be auctioning a 5 year TIP next Thursday (10/24). I place an order to buy 1 in a Roth IRA account.
ReplyDeleteYesterday (10/17), the real yield on the 5 year TIP closed at 1.68% and has been trending higher this month.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202410
The non-inflation protected 5 year Treasury currently is trading at a 3.88% yield.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd05y?countrycode=bx
If a 5 year treasury was purchased with a 3.88% yield yesterday and a 5 year TIP with a 1.68% real yield, the average annual CPI rate over the next five years would have to be over 2.2%, the breakeven inflation rate, for the buyer of the 5 year TIP to do better than the buyer of the nominal 5 year non-inflation protected treasury.
I view the 5 year TIP as an alternative to the IBond which requires a 5 year holding period to avoid a 3 month interest penalty and can not be sold for 1 year after purchase.
Currently, the fixed rate on the IBond is at 1.3% provided the bond is purchased on 10/31/24 or earlier. The rate may go down effective on 11/1/24.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
Comparing IBonds with TIPs:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/research-center/history-of-savings-bond/comparing-tips-to-i/
I need to reassess my Ibonds even though it hasn't been 5 years.
ReplyDeleteLand: I am unlikely to redeem any IBond purchase prior to five years after purchase.
DeleteIt was an easy decision to redeem one that had a .5% fixed coupon shortly after the five year period:
Scroll to IBond Redemption: $5,000 in principal amount plus $1,268 in interest
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/07/calf-fsmex-khc-lkq-mdt-sptn-wba-wpc.html
I noted there that the five year TIP real yield was at 2.15% as of 7/1/24, so it has come down as the yield of the non-inflation protected 5 year treasury note declined, going from 4.4% on 7/1/24 to 3.88% last Friday.
The IBond has an advantage to me in that it gives me an option to shift the recognition of interest income into a year where my marginal tax rate has fallen.
Land: After looking at my IBond positions, having totally forgotten what I own, I have changed my mind about keeping some of them. I noticed several purchases starting on 11/1/2011 through 10/1/22 that had the same current interest rate of 2.96% (semiannual at 1.48%) which immediately telegraphed to my aged brain that I bought them when there was no fixed rate. That turned out to be the case.
Deletehttps://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
So I will gradually redeem those starting with the last one purchased and will the funds to cover living expenses rather than drawing from another source.
I may keep the oldest ones where I can redeem without penalty in November and December 2026.
Instead of buying more IBonds, I will limit my purchase to TIPs bought in my Roth IRA accounts.
I forgot about delayed interest. I need to make a chart of bond features.
DeleteMy are 0% base, but less than 5 years. May still be worth selling as inflation comes down. Only keeping for the delayed interest.
I found a $50 bond in my security fire protection box. I need to find out if it's still valid. It looks it, from my Mom probably bought as a present from my Grandma.
Also found deeds & loan for a house I no longer own - amazing how much stuff can pile up.
I've been laddering T-bills or non-callable CDs 3mo -1yr, last was CD 4.55% for 5 months. I'm wondering if 1-mo T-bill auction 4.8% -ish isn't the way to go for a bunch of $ until election chaos is past. (Fidelity) mm fund now 4.5%
ReplyDeleteTreasury bills even those extending out to 1 year do not address the possible scenario that the FED continues to cut rates as currently forecasted by the CME FEDWatch tool, which as of last Friday has a 67.6 probability that the FF range will be 3.25-3.5% on or before the December 2025 meeting.
DeleteIf that proves to spot on or close to it, and no one can predict the future that far out, rolling over 1, 3, 4 or 6 month maturities will lead to lower interest income when the proceeds for those bills are received and have to be reinvested.
The 1 or 2 month will provide a better total return than the 3 month provided the fed does not cut by 25 basis points on 11/7/24 bringing the FF down to 4.5% to 4.75%.
I am buying the 3, 4 and 6 month bills at the weekly auction but that is occurring almost entirely in my Schwab account to replace maturing T Bills in that account.
I don’t believe the election will have an impact on yields.
If Trump wins, and he implements his tariff proposals and starts to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, those policies will place upward pressure on inflation and would cause me to shorten my duration. The tariffs will raise the price of products and removing that many workers, many of whom fill jobs at factories that Americans do not want, will cause supply disruptions and shortages that will result in price increases, similar to, but not as bad, as the supply chain problems during the pandemic.
I do not manage my bond ladder believing that I know what will happen with interest rates.
There are potential scenarios where inflation reignites late next year (e.g. Trump's policies) or in 2026, and the Fed goes back into a rate increase cycle. For that scenario, I want to have short maturities.
My approach has been for several weeks now to increase my duration through the purchase of potentially long term Tennessee municipal bonds and to fill out my ladder in the 9/30/25 to 12/31/26 period which will provide more protection for the scenario currently predicted by the FED funds futures as well as the yields on bills and short term treasury notes. I am buying about $20,000 in principal amount each week of corporate bonds and am way behind in discussing them.
The Vanguard Treasury MM fund currently has a 4.8% 7 day yield and will probably settle down a bit to near 4.75% prior to the next FED meeting. The higher yield is due to a lower expense ratio than the comparable fund at Fidelity.
thx, I am certain Fed to cut .25 in Nov, & likely say "wait and see" after that. I don't see any corporates good most BBB+ are junk paying ridiculous low coupons. What about Blackstone Private Credit bonds (even though I hate the b-turds)maturing 2026 paying around 5.8% ? I read they finance loans using CLOs so seems like a Ponzi maybe risky.
DeleteYou sound like my reader from California who has had some really nasty things to say to me.
DeleteIf you are that person, please do not comment here again.
The CME FedWatch tool still has a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the 11/7 FED meeting. That may be nil with another strong employment report scheduled for release on 11/1.
I disagree with your assessment that most BBB+ rated credits are junk. The yields are low compared to where they were earlier this year, but still provide spreads to treasuries maturing at the same time that are acceptable to me. The purchases will work better for me if the FED lowers the FF rate as forecast by the FF futures contracts and treasury yields. The maturities in the 9/1/25 to 12/31/26 are just one way for me to play the scenario that investors are close to being correct about future FED rate cuts over the next year or so.
All BDC bonds are riskier than their assigned credit ratings IMO and that is reflected in their yields being higher than non-pass through entities with the same credit ratings.
I own some Blackstone Private Credit bonds. This company loans money, mostly senior secured (last reported at 97%).
There is a publicly traded version, BXCL, and you can look at its filings for their funding sources. Funding is from senior unsecured debt and credit facilities.
Pages 70 - 77
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736035/000173603524000026/bxsl-20240630.htm
Not me, no reason to insult you. I'll look into that you mean BXSL, it's on a tear/overbought chart> https://schrts.co/ZaAtfRpH look at $2 drop in Aug, volatile.
DeleteI own only 5 shares of BXSL and I discussed some of the risks in this post:
DeleteItem # 2.A. Started BXSL - Bought 5 at $27.8:
November 18, 2023
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/11/acco-aod-ava-axprica-bwbbp-bxcl-cet.html
A new risk since I published that post is that the refinancing costs for maturing SU debt has risen and the floating rate loans priced at spreads to short term SOFR rates has declined. NII will decline with FED rate cuts. The BDC may be required to cut its common share dividend to account for lower net interest income.
I own 4 Blackstone Private Credit bonds.
Delete2 mature on 1/15/25 and were bought at a total cost of 97.928 on 5/16/24
Item # 2.E.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/05/adcpra-apa-eai-icmb-iipr-ip-maa-megi.html
2 mature on 3/24/25 and were bought at a total cost of 97.66 on 11/23/23.
Item #4.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/12/bbdc-dirunca-emp-fcvsx-fsphx-glq-jpc.html
I have not been willing yet to kick the can father down the road by buying more to replace those maturities.
Any private company that sells debt to the public has to file SEC reports:
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1803498
I've been looking at 09261HAD9 for months but want at least 6% yield, it's only 5.4% now
DeleteThat one matures on 12/15/26 and has a 2.625%. The YTM using the last trade is more consistent with a BB+ rating than Baa2/BBB-.
DeleteAnother consideration is that the current yield at 94.584 is 2.78%. A buyer at that last trade price gives up a higher current yield on the MM fund, close to 4.5% at Fidelity and higher at Vanguard. While I am willing to do that on shorter maturities, since the higher YTM will be realized sooner and the purchase is part of an investment strategy to lengthen duration which I am doing now, I would not do it on a BDC bond maturing that far into the future.
The stock market has been reacting negatively to the 10 year treasury rising in yield. Currently the yield is at 4.25%.
ReplyDeleteAnother negative today is that the National Association of Realtors reported that the September existing home sales declined 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84M homes which is the lowest level since October 2010.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-1-0-in-september
The existing homes for sale that were unsold rose to 1.39M or a 4.3 month's supply at September's sales pace.
The median home sales price was reported at $404,500.
The problem as I see it is not the uncertainty of the election or just the current mortgage rates. The problem is affordability taking into account the home prices, mortgage rates, property taxes and home insurance. More and more median income households are unable to afford the total costs of a median price existing or new home.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/10/arcc-bhk-cto-cznc-dei-hppprc-pdm-ppt.html