Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $819.18
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks: $1,085.43
Net Outflow U.S. Stocks/Stock Funds: -$266.25
Profit U.S. Stocks/Stock Funds: +$277.09
Inflow Canadian Stock (WCP:CA): + C$1,868 (with C$2 commission)
Corporate Bonds: $10,000 in Principal Amount
Treasury Bills: $10,000 in Principal Amount
Inflow Exchange Traded FM Bond (EAI): +$101.5
Outflow Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: C$1,1985
Profit Canadian Preferred Stock: C$356
Inflow U.S. Equity Preferred Stock (ATLCP): $110.25
June 2025 Yield Curve:
5 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 6/25/25: 2.28%
++++
In the third estimate of real GDP growth in 2025 first government, the government revised its prior to -.5% from -.2%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures ("PCE') was revised to only +.5% from +1.2%. Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate)- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
In the last 3 quarters of 2024, PCE growth was reported at +2.8% (2nd), +3.7% (3rd) and +4% (4th).
History of 1st Quarter Estimates:
As previously discussed, the 2025 first quarter GDP growth was weighed down by a surge in imports which are a subtraction from GDP. I would simply average the first and second quarters together to remove that issue.
The weaker economic data over the past few weeks has increased the odds of at least a 25 basis rate point cut on or before the September meeting:
| As of 6/26 9:02 CT |
I have noticed a material move down in investment grade bond yields, making their continued purchase less attractive to me.
May new home sales tank, pushing supply up to 3-year high
Business Optimism Collapses Under Trump - Newsweek (6/25/25) The article summarizes the JP Morgan Business Leaders Outlook Survey that reported that optimism about the U.S. economy declined to 32% from 65% in January 2025.
Why electricity prices are surging for U.S. households There are two related reasons. The first is that electricity used by data centers has resulted in new generation being built whose costs are included in the rate base for retail rates. The second is that it costs a lot more to build new generation due to inflation over the past several years and the 50% tariffs on imported steel will add to those increases.
++++
Shortly after the MOPs were dropped on Iran's enrichment facilities and before intelligence agencies could do a battle damage assessment, Trump claimed that the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities had been "completely and totally obliterated" and that Iran's nuclear program had been set back "basically decades". Pete Hegseth and republican politicians echoed those claims.
A preliminary assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency found that the attacks did not destroy the core of Iran's enrichment facilities or Iran's store of enriched uranium and set back the program by months, not years. Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say-CNN; Trump's strikes on Iran set back nuclear program by months, initial intel assessment finds - CBS News
A detailed report prepared by the Institute for Science and International Security concluded that the attacks "have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program." Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
Israel claims that the enrichment facilities suffered significant damage. President Trump Reads Israel Assessment on U.S. Strikes Against Iran | Video | C-SPAN.org; Israeli officials see "significant" damage to Iran's nuclear facilities
If Iran still has a viable nuclear program, I would expect Iran to cease cooperating with inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which it has indicated that it will do. Iran threatens to accelerate nuclear work - CBS News (The Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that Iran "will suspend cooperation with the IAEA until security of nuclear facilities is ensured, and Iran's peaceful nuclear program will move forward at a faster pace.") What would be Trump's response after claiming the U.S. totally obliterated Iran's nuclear facilities?
If Iran's leaders cared about the welfare of their citizens, the rational course would be abandon its nuclear program, permit IAEA inspections, cease supporting terrorist groups whose actions have never benefited Iranian citizens or Palestinians, establish diplomatic relations with Israel, and put a lid on the hostile rhetoric directed at Israel and the U.S. I am not aware of any factual information that suggest that a rational response will occur.
Putin Ally Dmitry Medvedev Says Countries Now Ready to Supply Iran With Nuclear Weapons - Newsweek That would be an extremely foolish act. Russia would be blamed for Iran's use of a nuclear weapon supplied by Russia which could lead to a nuclear response. Other Middle East countries would acquire nuclear weapons when Iran has them.
Donald Trump wants prosecutor to investigate 2020 loss to Joe Biden-USA Today (6/20/25) Trump: "Biden was grossly incompetent, and the 2020 election was a total FRAUD! The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING. A Special Prosecutor must be appointed. This cannot be allowed to happen again in the United States of America! Let the work begin!"
Photos of the Trump White House Paves Over the Historic Rose Garden
Vance calls Sen. Alex Padilla "José Padilla" - CBS News
ICE Deports Army Sergeant's Wife - Newsweek
Stephen Miller’s Financial Stake in ICE Contractor Palantir
19-year-old Dreamer describes 15 days in ICE detention: 'Scared and alone' after arrest during traffic stop She was not ticketed but given a warning about following too close.
Supreme Court eases rapid deportations to countries where immigrants have no ties - POLITICO Trump wants to deport undocumented immigrants to South Sudan, a country that the State Department has issued a Do Not Travel advisory. South Sudan International Travel Information None of the immigrants were from that country. Justice Sotomayor filed a dissent that was joined by Justices Jackson and Kagan. Order
RFK Jr.'s new ACIP CDC vaccine panel to review long-approved shots
+++
Putin says 'the whole of Ukraine is ours'
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
+++
Preferred Stock Called at the $25 par value:
+++
1. Restarted Whitecap Resources (WCP:CA)-Bought 100 at C$9.57; 100 at C$9.09 (C$2 IB Commission for 200 shares):
Quote: Whitecap Resources Inc. (Canada: Toronto) - Canadian E&P
Last Elimination: Item # 3. Eliminated WCP:CA Sold 100 at C$11.92+ (6/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = +C$405.5)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.A. Bought 100 WCP:CA at C$7.85 (10/3/2018 Post)
Website: Whitecap Resources Inc
5 year chart as of 6/19/25: Channel Trade mostly between C$8 to C$12 starting in 2022
Dividend: Monthly at C$.0608 per share (C$.7296 annually)
Dividend Information-Whitecap Resources Inc
Yield at Total Cost of C$9.34 = 7.81%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
All Amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter
Revenues: $942.2M, up from $868.3
Net Income = $162.6M, up from $59.8M
Diluted E.P.S. = $.27, up from $.10
Funds Flow per diluted share: $.75, up from $.64
Free funds flow: C$48.2M
Dividends per share: $.1824, unchanged
1st Quarter production average per day: 179,051 boe/d, "including 115,932 bbl/d of total liquids, comprised of oil, condensate and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") and 378,715 mcf/d of natural gas."
Rationale: One reason for this purchase is that I have built up an excess amount of Canadian Dollars (>C$59K) in this account through selling securities, mostly Canadian Reset Equity Preferred stocks.
IB does pay interest on the Canadian dollars but the dividend paid by Whitecap will be significantly in excess of the interest paid on the Canadian dollars used to settle that purchase.
2. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Sonoco Products 4.6% SU Maturing on 8/1/29 at a Total Cost of 98.965 - IB Account:
Issuer: Sonoco Products Co. (SON) - Industrial and Consumer Packaging Company
SON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/30/25
10-Q Debt is listed at page 22.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.873%
Current Yield at TC: 4.648%
I own 4 Sonoco Products 4.45% SU bonds that mature on 9/1/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org
B. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 5.75% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/54 at a Total Cost of 97.553:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company
Prospectus The first lien attaches to substantially all property, see pages 5-6.
Interest rate risk: The make whole provision protects the bond owner from an early call when interest rates have declined, but the owner has all of the interest rate risk associated with a persistent rise in rates.
I do not face the interest rate risk associated with having to sell bonds at an inopportune time.
I will consider selling long maturity bonds for a profit when and if interest rates decline significantly making this bond more valuable due to the make whole provision that would penalize an early redemption in this interest rate scenario.
Make Whole Provision:
This purchase is an alternative to buying the $25 par value exchange traded Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI) NYSE), which I also own and discuss in Item # 5.A. below.
EAI can be called now at par value + any accrued and unpaid interest. Without the make whole protection for the owner, EAI would be called when it is in the interest of Entergy Arkansas to do so.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 5.928%
Current Yield at TC: 5.894%
Last First Mortgage Bond Offering (5/2025): Prospectus for $300M 5.43% maturing in 2034.
C. Bought 2 Laboratory Corporation of America 4.35% SU Maturing on 4/1/30 at a Total Cost of 98.419:
Issuer: Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH)
The name was changed from Laboratory Corporation of America.
LH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
LH SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.721%
Current Yield at TC: 4.42%
I had 3 LH bonds mature on 2/1/25 (3 different accounts):
D. Bought 2 Lowe's 3.35% SU Maturing on 4/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.276 - Fidelity Account:
Issuer: Lowe's Cos. (LOW)
LOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.369%
Current Yield at TC: 3.409%
When purchased, the 2 year treasury note was trading at a 3.93% yield.
I am replacing 2 of the 4 bonds that mature in September:
![]() |
| Third Party Prices as of 6/18 |
E. Bought 2 Dollar General 5% SU Maturing on 11/1/32 at a Total Cost of 99.595:
Issuer: Dollar General Corp. (DG)
DG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my common stock position. Item # 1.H. Eliminated DG - Sold 5 at $85.63 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.07)
For now, I am sticking to owning no more than 2 SU bonds based on my assessment of the credit risk which was somewhat alleviated by the last earnings report that at least made me comfortable in buying 2 bonds maturing in 2032. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 5/2/25 (revenues increased 5.3% to $10.4B with net income reported at $391.928M, up from $363.317M)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB
YTM at TC = 5.066%
Current yield at TC: 5.02%
I had 2 Dollar General 4.15% SU bonds that were called early on 4/29/25 that would have matured on 11/1/25.
3. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
A. Bought 10 FBRT at $10.8:
Quote: Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. (FBRT)
Cost: $108
FBRT is an externally managed mortgage REIT who originates mortgage loans.
Loan Collateral Type and Loan Region: 71.3% Apartments
![]() |
| 10-Q at page 11 |
![]() |
| 10-Q at pages 13-14 |
The company has certain commercial loans and mortgage securities that are available for sale and owns some real estate, see pages 14-17.
Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. (FBRT)
FBRT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Risk: High IMO as reflected in the dividend yield.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.355 per share ($1.42 annually), last raised from $.285 per share effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
FBRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $10.8: 13.15%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental (foreclosed property list at page 15)
"Fully converted" assumes "applicable conversion of our outstanding series of convertible preferred stock into common stock and the full vesting of our outstanding equity compensation awards".
Per Share Data fully converted:
GAAP E.P.S.: $.22, down from $.35
Net Distributable Earnings : ($.12)
Net Distributable Earnings before realized loss: $.31, down from $.41
Distributable Dividend Coverage before realized loss: 86%
Reconciliation:
Net total income after interest expense declined by $3.84M while other expenses rose $9.714M with $7.573M of that number classified as "other expenses".
Fully converted Book Value per share: $14.95
Owned Equity Preferred Stock: I own 20 shares of FBRTPRE in my Schwab account with an average cost per share of $19.3. Par value is $25. Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock (FBRT-PE); Item # 3.C. Added to FBRTPRE - Bought 2 at $18.32; 3 at $18.19 (10/28/23 Post)
B. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $32.37 -Fidelity Account:
Quote: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) - Internally managed storage REIT
Cost: $161.85
Website: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.J. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $36.07 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 2.C. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $34.95 (5/3/2024 Post); Item # 2.B. Added to NSA - Bought 5 at $35.25 (4/26/24 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared NSA in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $48.54 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.95); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in NSA - Sold 7 at $41.91 (Schwab Account) and Pared NSA in Fidelity Account Sold 5 at $53 (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $67.91)(mentioning in that report that I was not impressed with the 2024 second quarter earnings report, SEC Filing). I subsequently restarted a position in my Schwab account where I currently own 10 shares with a $35.04 AC per share.
New Average cost per share this account: $34.04 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 per share ($2.28 annually), last raised from $.56 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment. The rate was at $.20 per share in the 2015 4th quarter payment.
NSA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment in my Schwab account. For shares owned in my Fidelity account, I am taking the dividend in cash.
2024 Tax Classification of Dividends:
National Storage Affiliates Trust Announces Tax Treatment of 2024 Distributions
Yield at $34.04 AC per share: 6.7%
Yield at $32.37: 7.04%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/25 (owned 25 this account as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filing (Debt is listed at page 14)
Comparisons are to the 2024 first quarter.
Revenues: $168.657M, down from $173.787M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.10, down from $.65
The decline was largely due to realized gains from property sales of $61.173M in the 2024 first quarter compared to $1.425M in the 2025 first quarter. Gains from property sales are excluded in the FFO computations.
FFO per share: $.52, down from $.6
Core FFO per share: $.54, down from $.6
Reconciliation:
Per share reconciliation:
Occupancy: 83.1% for for 816 owned properties
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 The wholly owned properties contain about 52.2M rentable square feet and 410,000 storage units. 10-Q at page 10.
Maximum Position in Taxable Accounts: 100 shares
KBRA Downgrades NSA OP, LP Issuer and Senior Note Ratings to BBB (3/15/25)
Last SU Note Offering: National Storage Affiliates Trust Operating Partnership Announces Issuance of $350 Million of Senior Unsecured Notes
C. Added to PEO - Bought 5 at $21.65; 5 at $21.35:
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Cost: $215
I am willing to add to this CEF since my exposure to natural resource stocks is close to nil and the fund pays a good dividend.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added to PEO - Bought 4 at $19.19 (4/18/25 Post)
This CEF was formed in 1929 just prior to the stock market crash. The fund shares office space and personnel with the Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX) that was founded at about the same time.
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 3/31/25
Sponsor's website: Adams Funds
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added 4 PEO at $19.9 (4/18/25 P0st); Item # 1.C. Added 5 PEO at $22.1 (9/19/24 Post)
Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/25:
Of the stocks listed in the previous snapshot, I have individual positions in Williams Companies (WMB), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Oneok (OKE). I have been paring those positions.
Principal Changes in the 2025 First Quarter:
Data Date of 6/23/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $23.85
Closing Market Price: $21.73
Discount: -8.89%
Average 3 Year Discount: -14.13%
Sourced: PEO - CEF Connect
Average cost per share: $21.81 (30 shares)
Dividends: Variable
"The Board . . . adopted a Managed Distribution Policy (“MDP”) to enhance long-term shareholder value by paying level quarterly distributions at a committed rate of 8% of average net asset value (“NAV”) per year. Distributions in accordance with the MDP began in the third quarter of 2024."
PEO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last 5 years of dividends:
For 2025, PEO paid quarterly dividends so far of $.53 and $.52 per shareLast Ex Dividend: 4/28/25
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Eliminated PEO-Sold 15 at $23.94 (4/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.72); Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25); Stocks,Item # 1. Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/2013 Post)(profit snapshot = $205.95); Item # 3. Sold 100 PEO at $26.19 (11/15/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.29)
Purchase Restriction: 2 to 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
PEO Realized Gains to Date: $1,278.98 Some minor sales were not discussed.
It has been my experience that energy stocks need to be traded in order to realize acceptable total returns. PEO is competently managed IMO but I was selling shares in 2010 and 2013 at prices higher than my most recent purchases.
My opinion that energy stocks are not good long term holds is based on my experience investing in them for several decades and the fact that energy prices will crater, refining margins will evaporate and chemical operations will turn sour.
WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends
Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends
If I had to hold 1 for the long term, I would narrow the choice based on what I know now to either Exxon or Chevron and then wait for disaster to strike again before starting a position.
The last disaster period for energy stocks as doing the pandemic, where energy prices cratered and I did some buying in several energy stocks.
I eliminated my last remaining XOM shares bought during that period in April 2023, selling 9 shares at $116.9 and realizing a $731.11 profit. Item #1.A. Eliminated XOM - Sold 9 at $116.9 (4/22/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $731.11) My average cost per share was at $35.67.
An argument could be made to keep the shares for the dividend income. The current quarterly dividend is $.99 per share ($3.96 annually), Dividends-Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) The yield at $35.67 and a $3.96 annual rate is 11.1% but the annual income is only $35.64 on 9 shares. At that annual rate, it would take about 20.51 years to equal the $731.11 realized gain in 2023.
Another consideration for selling is my age and financial condition that allows me to take less stock risk or none at all.
D. Added to GSBD - Bought 5 at $11.46:
Quote: Goldman Sachs BDC Inc. (GSBD) - Externally Managed BDC
Cost: $57.28
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to GSBD - Bought 5 at $12.74; 5 at $11.99 (1/1/25 Post)
New average cost per share: $13 (35 shares)
Dividend: $.32 regular ($1.28 annually), with potential supplemental dividends as described below:
On 2/26/25, "the Board of Directors approved a reduction of the base quarterly dividend to $0.32 per share (the “Base Dividend”) with upside potential through quarterly supplemental variable distributions (the “Supplemental Dividend”) in the amount of at least 50% of the Company’s net investment income in excess of the amount of the Base Dividend to the extent there is sufficient net investment income."
The regular dividend was reduced from $.46 per share. One reason for reducing the regular dividend is that NII has trended down starting last year when the FED started to cut the FF rate. This BDC also has an elevated amount of non-accruing loans based on amortized cost.
2025 Supplemental Dividends: $.16 for the 2025 second quarter and $.05 for the first quarter.
Dividend Yield: 9.846% (regular dividend only)
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 ($.48 of which $.32 was the regular and $.16 supplemental), owned all as of.
Net Asset value per share history: Poor IMO, Using a Cautious Approach
3/31/25: $13.2
12/31/24: $13.41
9/30/24: $13.54
12/31/23: $14.62
9/30/23: $14.61
6/30/23 $14.59
3/31/23 $14.44
12/31/22 $14.61
12/31/21 $15.92
12/31/20 $16.75
12/31/19 $16.75
12/31/18 $17.65
12/31/17 $18.09
12/31/16 $18.31
12/31/15 $18.97
IPO at $20 (March 2015): Prospectus (proceeds at $19.64 before internal expenses)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
NII per share: $.42
Adjusted NII per share: $.41
Non-accruing Loans: 1.4% based on fair value and 4.6% using amortized cost.
Portfolio Summary:
Company assessment of credit risks:
![]() |
| 10-Q at page 72 |
Company assessment of interest rate changes on NII:
![]() |
| 10-Q at page 82 |
10-Q With variable rate loans priced at spreads to short term rates, net investment income will decline when the FED cuts the federal funds rate and rise when the FF rate is raised.
A summary of investments starts at page 9. An loan with a (13) in the "note" column indicates non-accrual status.
Most of the non-accrual is in the loan to Lithium Technologies that has an amortized cost of $97.010M with a "fair value" mark of $26.967M, see page 16. The company is now known as Khoros. KBRA Releases Research – Private Credit: Khoros' Potential Default Sprinkled Across Private Credit; Khoros, LLC - Wikipedia
The non-accrual loan that has the lowest markdown is a PIK loan to VisionSafe Holdings, see page 10. Emergency Vision Assurance System | VisionSafe | EVAS
E. Added to PLTK - Bought 10 at $4.48:
Quote: Playtika Holding Corp. (PLTK)
Cost: $44.8
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
PLTK SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
New Average cost per share: $6.5 (40 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.1 per share
PLTK Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at AC = 6.154%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/23/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 3.C. Bought 5 PLTK at $4.76 (6/5/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release; 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
F. Started SAFE - Bought 10 at $15.6; 5 at $15.25:
Cost: $232.25
SAFE is a REIT that owns ground leases. I view this sector to be safer than other REIT sectors but there are still risks as discussed in the Annual Report linked below.
Safehold Inc. SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 9).
Portfolio:
Website: Current Safehold Portfolio | Safehold
I recently bought 4 SAFE 5.65% SU bonds maturing on 1/15/35.
Link to my Second Bond Purchase: Item # 4.E. Bought 2 Safehold Operating 5.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/35 at a Total Cost of 98.167 (6/12/25 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org, Bond Prospectus The other purchase was discussed in Item #5.F. (6/5/25 Post)
Safehold Inc. 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
The SAFE stock chart prior to 3/31/23 can not be relied upon. IStar acquired SAFE in a reverse merger and then changed its name to Safehold Inc. with the SAFE stock symbol. Other other complicated transaction occurring in connection with this merger including a spin-off to IStars shareholders the non-ground lease assets and businesses and a reverse split of shares, see Safehold Inc. 2024 Annual Report at page_December 31, 2024;
See also, Safehold and iStar Close Merger and Complete Spin-Off of iStar's Legacy Assets to iStar Stockholders; Safehold and iStar Announce Business Combination(8/11/22)("Prior to the closing of the transaction, iStar will undergo a reverse stock split to reduce the number of iStar shares outstanding to be equal to the number of SAFE shares owned by iStar immediately prior to the merger.")
The only relevant chart starts in April 2023.
Average cost per share: $15.48 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.177 per share ($.708 annually)
SAFE Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.48 = 4.574%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filing and 10-Q
Revenues: $97.677M, up from $93.213M
Funds from operations is not a relevant number for a ground lease REIT. Land is not depreciated and there are no maintenance expenditures.
GAAP Net Income: $29.4M
GAAP E.P.S. $.41
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.44 (excludes a $1.9M non-recurring loss related in a preferred equity investment in a leasehold joint venture)
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
4. Small Ball Common Stock Sells:
A. Eliminated SPTN - Sold 20 at $26.375:
Quote: SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)
Proceeds: $527.5
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.I. Bought 5 SPTN at $17.4 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to SPTN - Bought 4 at $18.23; 5 at $17.9 (1/9/2025 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $169.55
SPTN has agreed to be acquired for a $26.9 per share cash payment, as I discussed in a comment; SEC Filed Press Release. I will receive a $.22 per share dividend payment on 6/30.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.K. Sold 10 SPTN at $21.05, 5 at $20.08 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.79); Item # 2.F. Eliminated SPTN - Sold 15 at $29.01 in Fidelity Account; 20 at $31.05 in Vanguard Account; 10 at $30.64 in Schwab Account (3/23/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $421.49)
SPTN Realized Gains: $617.83 (no realized losses)
I also eliminated my position in a RI account and do not currently own any shares. I would only consider restarting a position now if the merger fell through.
B. Pared LGND - Sold 1.642 Shares at $118.26:
Quote: Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND)
Proceeds: $194.18
This stock normally has a large bid/ask spread.
The price is volatile with a 52 week range of $77.53 to $129.9.
The market capitalization at $118.26 is about $2.3695+B using the adjusted diluted share count as of 3/31/25.
LGND Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Website: Ligand Pharmaceuticals - Biopharma's Technology and Capital Partner
Profit Snapshot: $74.39 (6/25/25 sale only)
Average Cost Remaining Shares: $72.96 (5 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/24/25 after pare |
Dividend: None and none expected.
Last Purchase Discussion: Item #1.B. Added to LGND - Bought $30 at $77.22; 1 at $76; 1 at $75; 1 at $73; 1 at $71.8 (3/8/24 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.F. Pared LGND - Sold 1 Share at $118.06 (1/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.81); Item # 5.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position In LGND - Sold 2 at $103.69 - Schwab Account (8/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.19).
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q
Revenue: $45.333M
Disaggregation of revenues:
![]() |
| 10-Q at page 12 |
I do not like the number of adjustments that are made to the GAAP loss number which turns that loss into a non-GAAP profit.
GAAP E.P.S. ($2.21)
Adjusted E.P.S. +$1.33
For a long time, this company had one product called Captisol, which is designed to optimize the solubility and stability of drugs. Captisol revenues jumped when Gilead used it in its Covid drug Remdesivir and that use is no longer active. Other companies incorporate this product in FDA approved drugs.
During the period when Captisol was the only patent protected product, Ligand was successful in discovery compounds and licensing them in exchanged for milestone and royalty payments. Royalty Portfolio - Ligand Pharmaceuticals This link also lists LGND's royalty interests in several pipeline products. One of those products is Viking's NASH drug that is currently in a Phase 3 trial.
More recently, the company has branched out into purchasing royalty streams from other companies which is higher risk than licensing compounds to other companies who pay for the clinical trials. The most recent example is the royalty financing of a Castle Creek Biosciences drug to support a Phase 3 trial. If the trial fails, the investment will most likely be entirely incinerated.
Another example of this risky strategy is discussed in this press release. Ligand and Agenus Enter Into $100 Million Royalty Financing Agreement (5/7/24).
LGND acquired another company which had a royalty right to the approved drug QARZIBA, as discussed in this press release: Ligand to Acquire APEIRON Biologics AG for $100 Million
In an earlier post, I noted that Ligand lost its $30M investment in a royalty stream for a drug called soticlestat that failed in a phase 3 trials. Ovid Therapeutics and Ligand Pharmaceuticals Enter into a $30 Million Agreement for a 13% Interest in Soticlestat Royalties (10/18/23); Takeda Announces Phase 3 Topline Results for Soticlestat (6/17/24); Takeda Provides Update on Soticlestat (TAK-935) I did previously note that I would not allow an adjustment to GAAP earnings to remove that loss. If Ligand wants to be in the royalty purchase business, then losing an investment is an integral part of the business and not something that can be dismissed and ignored.
A lot of this activity was financed by the profits realized in selling shares of Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) that were acquired at a low price as part of LGND licensing compounds to Viking, as more fully discussed in prior posts.
2024 Royalty Income:
![]() |
| Annual Report at page 6 |
Pipeline Products/Potential Royalties:
![]() |
| Annual Report at page 10 |
Quote: First Horizon Corp. (FHN) - Bank Holding Company
Proceeds: $195.7
FHN is a bank holding company whose banking subsidiary First Horizon Bank operates in 12 southern states. The operating bank will have the largest market share in Tennessee. The operating bank was previously known as First Tennessee.
"At March 31, 2025, FHN had over 450 business locations in 24 states, including over 400 banking centers in 12 states, and employed approximately 7,200 associates. 10-Q at page 67
FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $29.2
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Restarted FHN - Bought 10 at $16.65 (4/25/25 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in this post: SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually), last raised from $.14 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The dividend was slashed from $.45 to $.20 effective for the 2008 second quarter payment and then slashed again to $.01 effective for the 2011 second quarter.
FHN Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Dividend History: I rate the history as very poor.
This rating will keep me mostly on the sidelines, with a hair trigger sell option. I did become briefly aggressive as part of an arbitrage strategy, discussed below, which I fortunately exited before the acquisition of FHN was terminated by parties due to regulatory opposition.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/25
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated FHN - Sold 25 at $19.89 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $155.65)
Largest Gains: Item # 1. Eliminated FHN - Sold 5 at $24.38; 20+ at $24.47; and 47+ at $24.38 (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,071.04); Item # 1. Pared FHN in Fidelity Account - Sold 450 at $24.33 (11/1/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,261.77) Those gains were connected with an arbitrage strategy involving the acquisition of FHN.
I played an arbitrage between the acquisition price offered by Toronto Dominion and the market price. When I became concerned about regulatory opposition, I sold all of my shares near the acquisition price. The merger was thereafter called off and the FHN price collapsed that resulted in restarting a position: Item # 1.H. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $11.5 (9/16/23 Post); Item # 3.F. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $9.51 (5/13/23 Post) Those lots have been sold.
FHN Realized Gains to Date: $3,090.74
D. Pared NTST in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $16.8:
Quote: NetSTREIT Corp. (NTST)
Proceeds: $168.05
I sold my highest cost lot.
NTST is an "internally managed real estate company that acquires, owns, and manages a diversified portfolio of single-tenant retail commercials properties, subject to long-term net leases." 10-Q at page 27 The company also invests in property developments and mortgage loans secured by real estate. The mortgage loans are listed and described generally at page 13. Many of the loans provide NTST with the option to acquire all or a portion of the property secured by the loans.
Portfolio Information:
SEC Filing (Top tenants listed at page 14)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Debt is discussed starting at page 15. Almost all of the debt is through bank credit facilities with the effective interest rates fixed through interest rate swaps.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.N. Added to NTST - Bought 10 at $13.9 (1/1/25 Post); Item # 1.D. Added 10 NTST at $14.25 (12/26/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $3.95
New Average Cost per share this account: $14.96 (50 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/20/25 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $15.19.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.205 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
NTST Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.96: 5.615%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/2/25 (owned 60 in this account as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release, SEC Filed Supplemental and SEC Filed Investor Presentation
Revenues: $45.91M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.02
FFO per share: $.29
Core FFO per share: $.3
AFFO per share: $.32
Reconciliation:
5. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Pared PPLPRC:CA - Sold 50 at C$23.95:
Quote: PPL-PC.TO
Proceeds: C$1,196.5
Issuer: Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) - Energy Infrastructure
PBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Presentation January 2025.pdf (page 68 has a map of PBA's facilities)
Last PBA Discussion: Item # 3.P. Pared PBA - Sold 2 at $36.17 (2/25/25 Post)(contains links to prior sell discussions)
PBA realized gains to date: $2,205.42
I still have a small ball position in the USD priced common shares (20 shares with an average cost per share at $29.99)
Last PPL.PRC:CA Discussion: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 PPLPRC:CA at C$22.15 (5/30/25 Post)(profit snapshot C$244).
Coupon Reset: The coupon reset effective 3/1/24 at a 2.6% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield of 3.419%. Press Release
Current Coupon: 6.019%
Coupon remains in effect to, but excluding 3/1/2029.
The security can be called only on reset dates.
Par Value: C$25
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Profit Snapshot: +C$356
New Average cost per share: C$16.13 (200 Shares)
| Price as of 6/25 Close/Unrealized Gain = C$1,590 |
Yield at New AC: 9.33%
Computation .06019% coupon x C$25 par value = C$1.50475 annual dividend per share ÷ C$16.13 average cost per share = 9.3289%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/1/25
Other PPL.PRC:CA Realized Gains: Item # 1. Sold 100 PPLPRC:CA at C$22.1 (1/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = +C$436); Item # 2.B. Sold 100 PPLPRC:CA at C$21.64 (6/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$496)
PPL.PRC:CA Realized Gains to Date: +C$1,532
Other PPL Reset Equity Preferred Trades: +C$565
See snapshots in Item # 2.A.
Realized Gains To Date Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: +C$23,286.8. Snapshots are in this post: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities I group these securities with my trades in U.S. floating rate preferred stocks which includes fixed-to-floating rate stocks that resemble the Canadian resets.
6. Exchange Traded Bonds:
Exchange Trade Bonds: Trade on the stock exchange. Orders are entered in the same manner as for a common stock.
A. Bought 5 EAI at $20.3 - Vanguard Account:
Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Issuer: Operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).
Cost: $101.5
Last Discussed: Item # 5.C. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $22.07 (8/2/24 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $21.7; 10 at $21.5; 10 at $21.27 (5/24/24 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875%
Maturity: 9/1/66
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 9/1/2021.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)
Interest Payments: Quarterly
New Average cost per share this account: $22.01 (75 shares)
Yield at $22.01: 5.537%
Calculation: .04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $22.01 average cost per share = 5.5373%
Yield at $20.3: 6%
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/30/25 (owned 70 in this account as of)
Total EAI Shares - All Taxable Accounts: 275 shares with a maximum at 300.
Annual Interest on 275 shares: $335.16
I owned 3 Entergy Arkansas 3.7% first mortgage bonds ($1,000 par value) that matured on 6/1/24.
Owned $1,000 Entergy Arkansas FM Bonds: $9,000 in principal amount
5 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% first mortgage bonds maturing on 4/1/2026. Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Entergy Arkansas 4% first mortgage bond maturing on 6/1/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Entergy Arkansas 5.15% first mortgage bond maturing on 1/2/33, Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Entergy Arkansas 5.75% first mortgage bond maturing on 6/1/54, Bond Page | FINRA.org, see Item # 2.B. above.
7. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 at the 6/23/25 Auction:
91 Day Bills
Mature on 9/25/25
Interest: $53.02
Investment Rate: 4.299%
B. Bought 5 at the 6/23/25 Auction:
183 Day Bills
Mature on 12/26/25
Interest: $104.72
Investment Rate: 4.267%
8. U.S. Equity Preferred Stock:
A. Added to ATLCP - Bought 5 at $22.05 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. 7.625% Cumulative Preferred Series B (ATLCP)
Cost: $110.25
I view the credit risk as high which is inherent in its business.
Issuer: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. (ATLC)
![]() |
| P. 24, Annual Report |
ATLC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Average cost per share: $22.43 (10 shares)
Yield at $22.43: 8.5%
Computation: 7.625% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.90625 annual per share dividend ÷ $22.43 average cost per share = 8.4987%.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/30/25
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.625%
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Maturity: None
Optional Call: On or after 6/11/26 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends
Stopper Clause: Yes, see page S-18 of the Prospectus
No cash dividend is currently being paid, so the stopper clause would not prevent a deferral of the preferred share dividend unless cash was used to buy back common stock.
The absence of a cash common share dividend and no expectation from common shareholders that one will be declared soon create an enhanced risk for a preferred stock owner.
If there was a cash common share dividend and an expectation that one would be paid, a company would be more hesitant to eliminate the cash dividend altogether, which would then legally allow the deferral of a cumulative preferred dividend.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.





%208:1:29%204.6%25%20.png)
%205.75%25%206:1:54%20.png)

%204.35%25%204:1:30%20.png)
%20+$13.23.png)
%204:1:27%203.35%25%20.png)

%205%25%208:1:32.png)
%206:1:45%205.15%25%20.png)




































For now, I am attributing most of the stock market rally this week to traders having to cover short positions in stocks and long positions in crude after the Israel-Iran cease fire agreement.
ReplyDeleteIf that is a correct assessment, and there is no way sitting a desk in Tennessee for me to confirm, the rally will run out of steam tomorrow or Monday.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,141.02 today. The prior closing high was at 6,144.15 on 2/19/25. The intraday all time high was on the same day at 6,147.23. Intraday today this index hit a high at 6,146.52 which was higher than the previous closing high which is what I meant to say in the YT video that I published earlier:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4a3IGiw1xc&t=5s
I published a video discussing yesterday's negative PCE and personal income report for May, which stock investors ignore.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJMj65zQjrs
Real PCE is now negative year-to-date.
U.S. GDP is 70% sourced from consumer spending:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/26/an-inside-look-at-the-q1-2025-gdp-third-estimate?topic=small-cap
I also discuss Trump terminating trade negotiations with Canada over a digital service tax that U.S. firms will have to pay starting on Monday retroactive to 2022. Trump said he just found out about it. An informed person would have known about this tax for almost 3 years. Several European countries have digital services taxes as well. Trump is probably demanding their elimination which may end up killing any new trade deal with the EU.
I added 2 snapshots to this post that are taken from the government's third estimate of first quarter GDP. The first addition is a table showing how the various estimates for real GDP, nominal GDP, and the PCE price indexes have change starting with the first estimate. The second is to include more information from Table 1 that highlights the major slowdown in PCE in the first quarter compared to the prior three quarters. The previous excerpt did not include the PCE data but only the real GDP numbers.
ReplyDeleteTo restart trade negotiations with the U.S. with a 7/21/25 deadline, PM Carney suspended collection of the digital services tax (DST) that was scheduled to be paid today based on transactions starting in 2022 "in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States."
ReplyDeleteQuote from Press Release issued by the Canadian Department of Finance:
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/06/canada-rescinds-digital-services-tax-to-advance-broader-trade-negotiations-with-the-united-states.html
I would note that Carney can not rescind the DST legislation on his own initiative, which he can not do, as made clear by this quote in the press release: "The June 30, 2025 collection will be halted, and Minister Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Tax Act."
The news headlines on this topic suggest strongly that the DST legislation has been rescinded which is not the case.
Collection of the tax has been suspended pending a "mutually beneficial" trade deal with the U.S. and a vote in the Canadian Parliament rescinding the tax. If the Parliament does not like the trade deal offered by the U.S., the members could simply refuse to abolish the DST which would likely cause Trump to end trade talks.
I did participate in today's 6 month T Bill auction that had a 4.256% investment rate, still above the low end of the current FF range of 4.25%-4.5%.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first 6 month bill auction where the maturing is in 2026. By holding the bill to maturity, which I always do with T Bills, the interest income will be taxed in 2026.
I will increase my purchase of bills maturing in 2026 when it becomes apparent that my 2025 interest income is likely to move me into a higher tax bracket. I will start out slow with this income tax recognition shifting.
I can understand why so many households are becoming financially stressed and have already started or soon will reduce their discretionary purchases.
I mentioned in a prior comment that my home, car and umbrella insurance policies went up 70% in the 2022-2024 period with no claims except for someone hitting my bumper about 20 years ago causing about $300 in damage to my car. With my policy up for renewal in early July, I had my agent check for competitive quotes. She checked with 11 insurance companies and only one would save me money and that was only $100 but with an increase in my deductible.
I don't think stock investors are paying attention to the personal consumption expenditure numbers which confirm a pullback in consumer spending so far. Maybe that is due to many, including all who have the financial resources to move markets (institutions and the rick) being unaffected by price increases for essential items.
And, inflation is more likely to pick up in the second half which will aggravate the existing financial stress for the bottom three quintiles in household income and many in the top two quintiles, excluding the top 1%-5%, who have extraordinary expenses like college tuition or who have a long history of excessive discretionary spending.
I am experiencing enough excitement with my 8% or so weighting in common stocks that is spread over 200 to 250 stocks. Since I do not need to take stock risk, I am not inclined to increase my weighting now until there is a better risk/reward balance for me.
I'm hearing any alarm bells about recession coming when I listen to CNBCor Bloomberg.
ReplyDeleteMarket is at all time highs, and deciding whether to break through.
Today, the Vixs went up by about 2%, while stocks also closed higher. With that indicate that traders are expecting a lower market and for the breakthrough not to happen?
Land: As I recall, the VIX is negatively correlated with the S&P 500 about 75% of the time. When there is positive correlation the percentage changes will generally be small.
DeleteThe main signal sent by the VIX now is complacency and a lack of concern about issues that could lead to a recession or higher inflation.
The movement is consistent with a Recovery Period after a Trigger Event, including the S&P 500 hitting a new all time after a TE (e.g. August 2007 TE with new highs in early October 2007). I count 28 closes below 20. I do not restart the count based on small closes above 20 but simply do not include those closes in the Stable Vix Pattern count.
Investors are ignoring a lot of unfavorable economic data.
There is a reason why Trump is pushing hard for a substantial FED rate cut.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/powell-fed-trump-interest-rates
The PCE data is consistent with a major slowdown in consumer spending so far this year. I have read stories about crops being left to rot in California because Trump has deported farm workers. IMO, there is excessive optimism that the trade war will soon be successfully resolved. The main U.S. trading partners are Canada, Mexico, the EU and China and I do not see anything yet that suggests a deal is about to happen with those countries. If Trump insists on keeping a 50% tax on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, then I would expect Canada to start collecting its digital service tax, as one example of how Trump could blow up potential trade deals.
If inflation starts to move higher in the back half of 2025 and the Fed cuts rates, I would expect longer term interest rates to move higher. Bond investors are hyper sensitive to the FED making mistakes that stoke inflationary pressures after the debacle in keeping ZIRP and Q/E to March 2022 when the annual CPI rate was reported at 8.5%. That concern was reflected in a 100 basis point rise in the 10 year treasury yield starting in September 2024 when the Fed cut the FF rate by 50 basis and then two more cuts thereafter of 25 basis points. In other words, the 10 year treasury yield rose 100 basis points while short term rates declined 100 basis points.
I was wondering if the 2% which is fairly small for a Vix movement would invalidate the observation. So it was insignificant for it to differ.
DeleteInteresting that there's a lackadaisical feeling towards where things are going. Maybe a reflection of the uncertainty of the market direction.
To go with the concerns, prices at the grocery store are definitely higher. And this time they're sticking. Before they'd go up and down and sales would be frequent. That's before tariffs have had an ongoing significant bite.
That clarifies on rate worries, that if it's the long-term rates that are going to go up, then I'm going to go back to the idea of buying now, for the two to three year range or even one year. Those I would expect to go down if there's a slow down in the economy. And if there's some sticky inflation, I don't expect the rise to be particularly strong. 1% at the most. If there's run away inflation, I won't have anticipated it.
This is consistent so far with the recovery of a TE. But it's possible for it to go straight to a new bull rally without a catastrophic event ever happening.
DeleteI think that was the case in 2020 which stopped at about 20% down. Though not in any of the other situations.
28 days is close to a month, with two more months to go in the model. I'm keeping an eye on whether it goes below 15. It's come close but hasn't closed below 15.
Land: An Unstable VIX Pattern started in 1998 and remained in effect until 2003. While the market continue to make new new highs in 1999, the VIX never returned to below 20 movement until 2003 when the Stable Vix Pattern formed.
DeleteMy 2009 Post
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2009/05/vix-asset-allocation-model-explained.html
The VIX remained elevated throughout 1999 as the S&P 500 went into a parabolic surge which I call a non-Confirmation Event. The VIX was saying sell into that rally.
My memory is not as good as it use to be. At the moment, I do not recall recall a single instance since the VIX data started in 1990 when there was a Trigger Event, no Catastrophic Event and the Recovery Period morphed into a Stable Vix Pattern.
If that is accurate, and I believe it is without checking, having a Stable Vix Pattern form out of the first recovery period would be a first which does not mean that it is impossible but would be an historical anomaly.
A lot can happen in the next two months that would trigger another VIX surge, restarting the day count for the SVP, and lasting long enough with enough high closes to be classified as a Confirmation Event. There were multiple Confirmation Events after the August 2007 Trigger Event before there was a Catastrophic Event.
"having a Stable Vix Pattern form out of the first recovery period would be a first"
DeleteI'd back tested before 2018 and saw that pattern hold up. In 2018 a TE never formed. Close but a couple days short.
Where I'm unsure...
In 2020, the market went down 20% and recovered into a rally.
Was there a TE? Then a recovery without ever going into a catastrophic event?
Maybe there was a TE and catastrophic drop at the same time, then recovery into a bull?
There was a Trigger Even starting on 10/27/1997 and it was a major one that ended on 12/29/27:
DeleteDec 29, 1997 26.79
Dec 26, 1997 29.27
Dec 24, 1997 30.27
Dec 23, 1997 29.86
Dec 22, 1997 28.56
Dec 19, 1997 29.18
Dec 18, 1997 27.19
Dec 17, 1997 26.33
Dec 16, 1997 26.11
Dec 15, 1997 27.37
Dec 12, 1997 27.92
Dec 11, 1997 27.63
Dec 10, 1997 24.55
Dec 9, 1997 23.36
Dec 8, 1997 23.22
Dec 5, 1997 22.65
Dec 4, 1997 23.84
Dec 3, 1997 23.92
Dec 2, 1997 25.66
Dec 1, 1997 26.01
Nov 28, 1997 27.43
Nov 26, 1997 28.95
Nov 25, 1997 28.95
Nov 24, 1997 29.80
Nov 21, 1997 26.65
Nov 20, 1997 27.32
Nov 19, 1997 29.93
Nov 18, 1997 31.58
Nov 14, 1997 33.66
Nov 13, 1997 36.64
Nov 12, 1997 37.84
Nov 11, 1997 36.38
Nov 10, 1997 36.63
Nov 7, 1997 36.27
Nov 6, 1997 32.57
Nov 5, 1997 32.18
Nov 4, 1997 32.24
Nov 3, 1997 32.09
Oct 31, 1997 35.09
Oct 30, 1997 38.20
Oct 29, 1997 33.75
Oct 28, 1997 31.22
Oct 27, 1997 31.12
Oct 24, 1997 23.17
The Trigger Event simply refers to elevated VIX readings that starts an Unstable VIX Pattern. There is only 1 until a Stable Vix Pattern forms. The SVP did not form until 2023 after the 1997 TE. There were 3 brief Recovery Periods during the October 1997 to 2003 UVP and a prolonged non-Confirmation Event in 1999 when the stock market went into a parabola with VIX moving in the mid-20s.
I would need to look at the daily data for the length of the 3 Recovery Periods.
The monthly data from this St Louis Fed Chart indicates brief movement below 20 in February 1998, August 2000 and in March 2002. August was the last best chance to get out during this bear market that took the S&P 500 near 50%
Click "Max" to take the chart back to 1990.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
There have been three really nasty bear markets since WWII. One of them was in the 2000-2002 as high multiple stocks whose parabolic price rise powered the S&P 500 higher in 1999 underwent a valuation reset, with a recession being the precipitating cause The other two were in 1974 at -51.9% and in the Near Depression period with the S&P 500 bottoming in March 2009 after a 56.8% decline.
See table at MFS, pdf format:
https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfse_resdwn_fly.pdf
There can be one or more Confirmation Events during a UVP where there is multi-day VIX spike into the high 20s and beyond that confirm the TE signal as a valid one.
The Catastrophic Event happens when there is massive spike into the 70s and beyond that would be accompanied by a major and painful stock selloff. Historical data indicates that 1 is likely during a UVP (October 2008-February 2009) but not inevitable.
What happened with the last TE in April was that it came close to the Catastrophic Event level in the VIX and would have gotten there if Trump had not reversed himself on the retaliatory tariffs announced on 4/2.
I write my responses to comments in a stream of consciousness and rarely check for typos before publishing. To correct an error in my prior comments, the Trigger Event started in October 1997, not in 1998, and lasted until 12/29/1997 as shown in the data that I reproduced, not on 12/29/27 that I typed which was a brain malfunction.
DeleteWhile the monthly data in the St Louis Fed Vix Chart that I referenced highlights the broad patterns, daily data has to be consulted to fine tune.
Looking at the daily data in 1998, there was a brief Recovery Period starting on 6/18 and ending on 7/21, a few days in May with below 20 closes, 3 days in April, and 26 below 20 closes in February and March.
In 2000, the last best chance to reduce a stock allocation before the S&P 500 collapsed, just looking at the daily VIX closes, was in mid-July 2020 through -August 2000 when there were multiple closes below 20. The lowest close during that period was at 16.53 on 8/25/2000 when the S&P 500 closed at 1,506.45 and at 1,517.67 on 8/31/25.
I did not check for the low in the 2000-2002 period but did pull up the data for 2002. There was an S&P 500 close at 777.76 on 10/9/2002 which was the lowest close that year. That close was 48.75% below the 8/31/20 close.
Interesting stuff about the 2000 crash. That was a long lead up, from the first trigger signal. 2 and a half years.
DeleteI'll look up the 2020 COVID decline data, when I get a chance. I'm not sure the trigger event created a catastrophic event in this recent downturn. It may have been a catastrophic event was part of the initial crash. And then the recovery event completely came out of the whole thing into a rally.
This April 2025, appeared to be a garden variety just under 20% sell off. Not quite into crash territory. It included a trigger event. Which would mean that there's expectation of more volatility to come. But not necessarily a catastrophic event. At least that's my understanding.
I'm wondering how computer trading is affecting the pattern. Also free trading. Which makes it much easier to come in and out of stocks. The speed of news is also different. There's also a blue sky forever investor element that didn't exist In the same way 15 years ago.
Land: Most of the April 2025 decline was triggered by Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs but the market was declining some in anticipation of an announcement. If you measure the decline from the 2/19.25 intraday high of 6,144 to 4,835.94, the intraday on 4/8, the decline was 21.29%.
DeleteThe VIX was elevated for most of the period starting in 1997 through 2002. There were multiple Confirmation Events. I would characterize that period as the death throes of the long term secular bull market that started in August 1982.
The TE was initiated by the Asian Contagion in October 1997. Other breakdowns in the financial system included the 1988 Russian financial crisis and the failure of Long-Term Capital Management. As the financial boom of the 1990s was coming to an end, stock investors nonetheless took the market into an extreme overvaluation level. The 50%+ decline in 2000-2002 was sufficient IMO to bring the S&P 500 into the top end of a reasonable valuation range. The movement in the VIX was saying watch out below. The parabola will collapse on itself.
It has not paid to remain pessimistic about U.S. stock market returns for a long time. Major declines have been followed by robust rallies starting in 1982.
Today's stock market investors have not yet experienced a period like 1966, close to when I bought my first stock which was HCA when it owned 1 hospital called Parkview in 1968, to August 1982, when the average annual average total return of the S&P 500 was a negative 1.83%. That is an annual average loss with dividends reinvested.
Start Month January 1966
End Month July 1982
Check the box "Adjust for Inflation (CPI)"
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
BusinessWeek had a cover story titled "The Death of Equities" for the magazine published on 8/13/1979.
https://ritholtz.com/2019/08/death-of-equities-40th-anniversary/
For those who lived through that period, I can at least understand the feeling.
Over the past 100 years, there have only been 2 periods when the misery lasted for more than a decade. The first was the Great Depression and the second was the Great Inflation period starting in the 1960s. So those are the most likely causes for a repeat.
Another potential cause now is a debt bomb explosion in the U.S. as the Treasury is unable to sell enough new debt to repay what is maturing and to finance the then existing budget deficits that bleeds over into corporations being unable to refinance. In this kind of scenario, the U.S. government does not have the financial ability to step in to steady the situation as it did during the 2008 Near Depression.
The 2020 Covid induced market decline is discussed in this Forbes article.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizfrazierpeck/2021/02/11/the-coronavirus-crash-of-2020-and-the-investing-lesson-it-taught-us/
I moved another 5K out on Friday in that rally. For now waiting to see what the market does with this spot.
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to buy Apple. It's down 20% from its highs. That would be a good enough reason. They'll play catch up as needed on AI. Maybe buy 5K.
Land: I read an article this morning at the Marketwatch website (subscription publication) about Apple, noting that the stock was down 18% this year and had underperformed its major technology rivals except for Tesla. The article quoted a technical analyst who noted that the stock was up yesterday based on a story that Apple was "considering using outside artificial intelligence and shifting away from its in-house tech to power a new Siri version". From a technical viewpoint, the analyst was to see the stock climb above $214 "to have conviction about a larger rally getting under way"
DeleteI have own Apple in the past but do not have a current position given my current investment objectives that focus first on capital preservation and then income generation. The dividend yield is .51% according to Marketwatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl?mod=refsymb_mw
If I was considering a buy, I would make an effort to determine why the stock has performed poorly by looking at year-over-year E.P.S. numbers for the past several quarters. Has E.P.S. growth stagnated which is an issue with a high P/E multiple since the price to earnings growth would be very high at Apple's current P/E.
Well there you go, being thoughtful and practical about what to look up on the stock.
ReplyDeleteIf this was a bull market, I would go in. But if the market goes down, this is going to get hit at least as badly or more than other tech.
The PE is currently 32, forward 26. Not bad numbers for a tech company. I'll have to dig into there sec reports.
I would have confidence that they'll turn around if the founder whose name I can't remember at the moment, was still at the helm. But this is not an exceptional management team like Steve Jobs.
I do think that they'll figure out how to catch up on AI. Which is what their lagging on. They have enough cash to solve the problem.
Thanks for the ideas of what to look into.
Land: I checked Apple's last 2 earnings report and there was some Y-O-Y growth in revenues and E.P.S.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000055/a8-kex991q2202503292025.htm
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000007/a8-kex991q1202512282024.htm
The problem can be seen by looking at page 29 of the last filed annual report.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019324000123/aapl-20240928.htm
This was for the fiscal year ending 9/28/24. Revenues were lower in that fiscal year than the fiscal year ending 9/24/22. E.P.S. had flatlined at $6.08, $6.13 and $6.11
One of the challengers for companies like Apple with annual revenues close to $400B is the difficulty in moving the needle. Adding $5B in revenue does not make that much difference.
Another financial metric that is not favorable is free cash flow yield:
https://finbox.com/NASDAQGS:AAPL/explorer/fcf_yield_ltm/
Still Apple has the cash and borrowing capacity to do whatever it wants to do. It has a large base of users which include me. And it may be breaking out of its no growth mode over the past three fiscal years as reflected in the first two quarters of the current fiscal year.
Just sold 20 shares of laz at a $20 loss, So $1 dollar share, 2%. Not the best for a 4% dividend stock. It's on a rally due to new management so maybe I should have waited. But It hasn't been a strong stock at the price that I bought it. Often doing less well than the market in general.
ReplyDeleteI have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/cgbd-clx-cpb-enbprpca-gty-kmb-lxp-mdt.html