Friday, August 2, 2024

ALEX, ARGD, BNL, BOTZ, CTO, EAI, ELC, FFIC, IRBO, LXP, MMM, SCHI, THFF, UL, UMH, WASH

Economy

The BLS reported earlier today that the economy added 114,000 jobs last month. "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000 to+179,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 29,000 lower than previously reported." Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M07 Results

The unemployment rate rose .2% to 4.3%. 

There is an ongoing slowdown in wage growth. "In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $35.07. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6 percent." 

Another negative data point was that the average work week fell .1 hour to 34.2 hours. 

The U-6 number jumped to 7.8% from 7.4% in June. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2024 M07 Results

Overall, the employment report was weak and is consistent with an economy that is slowing down in the third quarter. 

The stock market turned negative on Thursday after ISM released its manufacturing survey for July 2024. The manufacturing PMI index was reported at 46.8%, down from 48.5% in June. Any number below 50 indicates an ongoing contraction. The new orders component was reported at 47.4%, down from 49.3%.  The employment component fell to 43.4% from 49.3%. 

For the week ending 7/27, the seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims rose 14,000 to 249,000. Department of Labor New Release.pdf

Construction spending in June decreased at a seasonally adjusted .3% annual from the revised May number but was still up 6.2% compared to June 2023.  

September rate cut 'on the table' if inflation data continues to cool: Powell The data supported a rate cut at the July meeting. 

Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP saysADP® Employment Report

In the Mastercard earnings report for the second quarter, the CEO noted "continued healthy consumer spending". 

Euro zone inflation, July 2024 +2.6% with the core at 2.9%, both higher than the consensus. Euro area annual inflation up to 2.6% - Eurostat

Trump would be a 'triple whammy' for inflation if reelected, says Allianz's Ludovic Subran

China holds back on more stimulus, citing necessary 'pain'

There is a 100% probability that the FED will cut the federal funds range by a least 25 basis points at the September meeting. The odds of a 50 basis cut has increased to 70.5% earlier today from 22% yesterday.  

CME FedWatch - CME Group

10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 8/1/24: 2.2%

As of 7:50 A.M. today, the ten year treasury yield is trading at 3.842% yield, down 14 basis points. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Overview | MarketWatch 

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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bills: $20,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: None

Outflow Individual Common Stocks: -$3,696.18

(consisting of $3,873.12 in proceeds minus $176.94 in a purchase)

Stock Funds: +$312.1

Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$3,384.08 

Bond ETF: +$222.83

Exchange Traded Bonds (ARGD, EAI, ELC):  +$771.97

EAI and ELC are exchange traded first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy operating subsidiaries. 

2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$25,427.27

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Snapshot of Asset Allocation in my Fidelity and Vanguard Taxable Accounts as of 8/1/24: 

Fidelity 


Vanguard
Both firms would include T Bills, T Notes, corporate and municipal bonds in the "bond" category.  

The increase in my bond portfolio's value will more than offset the decline in my common stocks today, assuming the major indexes close down near where they are now pre-market. Nasdaq 100 is down 490 points or about 2.57% as of 7:45 C.S.T. 

The short term reserves in my Vanguard account consist entirely of a U.S. government money market fund. VMRXX-Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares | Vanguard (7 day SEC Yield at 5.3% as of 8/1/24). The yield will quickly adjust down with each FED rate cut. 

The short term reserve percentage in my Fidelity accounts has been rising as I slow down the reinvestment of proceeds received from maturing investments.  The Fidelity ® Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX) is similar to VMRXX but the expense ratio is .42% compared to .1%. That difference is reflected in a lower 7 day SEC yield for SPAXX which was 4.98% as of 8/1/24. 

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Trump and His Party

Trump on Harris: "I’ve known her a long time indirectly, not directly very much, and she was always of Indian heritage. And she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black. Now she wants to be known as Black. So I don’t know — is she Indian or is she Black? I respect either one but she obviously doesn’t because she was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden she made a turn and she became a Black person." 

Trump is claiming that Harris changed her racial and ethnic identity for political gain. Harris has always identified as a black woman. She went to Howard University, a historically black college, where she joined Alpha Kappa Alpha, the nation's first sorority for black women. Her mother moved from India to the U.S. in 1958. Her father is from Jamaica. Contrary to Trump's representation that Harris only recently identified as black, Harris has throughout her career identified as being both black and south Asian. Fact check: Trump’s lie that Harris ‘all of a sudden’ embraced a Black identity 

Trump also suggested that "somebody should look into" Ms. Harris's shift in racial and ethnic identity, a phase that is reminiscent of his claim that Obama was not a U.S. citizen. Trump was the most well known peddler of the Obama birther conspiracy. 

Vance defends Trump over former president’s false claims about Harris’ racial identity Vance thinks that Trump's comments about Harris were "totally reasonable".  

So Racist - YouTube

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he is the least racist person alive today. Trump says he is the ‘least racist person anywhere in the world TrumpWorld is truly Orwellian. Obama called Trump a bullshitter and there is a continuous stream of BS that flows from Trump's written and spoken words.  The Bullshitter-in-Chief - Vox

Trump falsely calls Schumer a ‘proud member of Hamas’ - The Washington Post Schumer is the highest ranking Jewish politician in the U.S.

PolitiFact | Fact-checking Donald Trump’s rally in Charlotte, N.C.

Fact check: Minnesota campaign speech: Trump falsely claims again he deployed National Guard to Minneapolis in 2020 | CNN Politics Trump is incapable of being truthful. He knows that he can repeat demonstrably false claims over and over again for years and his True Believers will accept them as true. The Minnesota Governor deployed the National Guard in response to violence occurring after the police killed George Floyd in May 2020. 

Trump tells Christians to vote, says they won't have to again if he wins

'In four years, you don't have to vote again,' Trump says | REUTERS - YouTube

“Autocracy Inc.” | Strategy Session Live w/ Anne Applebaum - YouTube 

Fred Trump III calls uncle Donald Trump 'atomic crazy,' says he used racial slur decades ago - YouTubeFred Trump III calls uncle Donald Trump 'atomic crazy,' says he used racial slur decades ago - ABC News Fred Trump III is Donald's nephew. His younger sister is Mary Trump. Both are children of Fred Trump Jr., a son of Fred Trump Sr.   

"Vance VP" - Marsh Family parody adaptation of "Dancing Queen" by ABBA, on JD Vance - YouTube

J.D. Vance doubled down on his remarks that childless women do not have a direct stake in America. JD Vance doubles down on 'childless cat ladies' dig: 'I've got nothing against cats' He claimed that the Democrats were "anti-family" and "anti-child", which just added a new level of bizarre reality creations to his earlier comment. It’s not just ‘cat ladies’: JD Vance has a history of disparaging people without kids | CNN 

This JD Vance response to a Paul Krugman tweet has made been resurrected as well:

J.D. Vance Endorsed Book That Calls Progressives “Unhumans” and Praises Jan. 6 Rioters 

‘I’m a Never Trump guy’: All of J.D. Vance’s Trump quotes that could come back to bite him - POLITICO

KFILE: Ohio Sen. JD Vance once called Trump a ‘moral disaster,’ and possibly ‘America’s Hitler (7/16/24). In that article, this exchange between Vance and a Kentucky Radio host Matt Jones in August 2016. Jones: "I cannot stand Trump because I think he's a fraud. Well, I think he's a total fraud that is exploiting these people"

Vance: "I do too. I agree with you on Trump, because I don't think that he is the person. I don't think he actually cares about folks".

Referring to Trump, Vance wrote "My god what an idiot" in a now deleted tweet. Vance has deleted a number of tweets where he made candid and accurate statements about Trump. 

Vance: "I can't stomach Trump. I think that he's noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place.'Hillbilly Elegy' Recalls A Childhood Where Poverty Was 'The Family Tradition' : NPR

Vance: "Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation's highest office". This statement was made by Vance in an opinion column published in the NYT.  Opinion | Why Trump’s Antiwar Message Resonates with White America - The New York Times (4/4/16)

Trump-Endorsed Candidate JD Vance Once Said Trump Might Be ‘America’s Hitler’

Vance claims that Trump deserves credit for the prisoner exchange negotiated by Biden and Harris. Video: JD Vance credits Trump for prisoner swap Biden negotiated | CNN

On podcast for Project 2025 partner, JD Vance attacked journalists for being “miserable and unhappy” because their biological clocks have run out | Media Matters for America

JDVance Says People Without Kids Are ‘More Sociopathic’ Than Parents - YouTube JD and Dr. Phil need to go into therapy practice together.

"Vance VP" - Marsh Family parody adaptation of "Dancing Queen" by ABBA, on JD Vance - YouTube

J. D. Vance’s Sad, Strange Politics of Family | The New Yorker Vance was proud that his grandmother kept 19 loaded handguns laying around her small house, claiming that this was true to the "American spirit". 

My Video: What Does J D Vance Really Think about Trump? - YouTube

Vance’s Links to the Project 2025 Leader Complicate Trump’s Attempts at Distance - The New York Times Vance wrote a forward for an upcoming book authored by the President of the Heritage Foundation "Dawn's Early Light". Read J.D. Vance’s Violent Foreword to Project 2025 Leader’s New Book | The New Republic Vance called on Americans "to circle the wagons and load the muskets". The publisher recently changed the title from "Burning Down Washington to Save America". Vance notes that Chief Justice Roberts is articulating a "fundamentally Christian view of economics and religion".

One Old Man - YouTube

Elon Musk retweets altered Kamala Harris campaign ad  An AI voice over has Harris saying that Biden is senile and she is the ultimate diversity hire. Musk violated his own policy by failing to note in his retweet that the altered video was a deep fake.  

A half-million records and one app: The group behind a massive effort to ‘clean’ voter rolls | CNN PoliticsLeaders of right-wing election conspiracy group jailed after being found in contempt of court | CNN PoliticsCatherine Engelbrecht - Wikipedia

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Putin and His Orcs

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war

Putin's troop losses set to reach one million in 2025 | Prof. Michael Clarke - YouTube

Another BIG Russian Attack Near Novomykhailivka Defeated (400 Vehicle Losses Here Since Ocotber 23!) - YouTube

Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Oil Depot in Polevaya, Kursk -- Three Tanks Burning - YouTube

Kyiv selecting Putin's 'valuable targets' as F-16s arrive in Ukraine | Justin Bronk - YouTube

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1. Small Ball Sells

I have been selling equity REITs and regional banks stocks into their respective rallies: 

Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy (ALEX, BNL, CTO, LXP)

Regional Bank Basket Strategy (FFIC, THFF, WASH - All Eliminations)

I am discussing about 1/2 of my sales this past week below. The other half will be discussed in my next post. 

A. Eliminated THFF - Sold 20 at $45.7

Quote: First Financial Corp. (Indiana) (THFF) 

Proceeds: $913.97

First Financial Corporation "is the holding company for First Financial Bank N.A. First Financial Bank N.A., the fifth oldest national bank in the United States, operates 70 banking centers in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee."

THFF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

THFF SEC Filings 

SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (branch locations can be found at pages 30-31; 

Profit Snapshot: +$73.85

Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share

THFF Dividend History | Nasdaq

Prior to 2024, THFF paid a semiannual dividend. First Financial Corporation Declares Semi-Annual Dividend (5/17/23) The company went to quarterly dividend effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. First Financial Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend (11/21/23)

Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/24 (owned as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2023 second quarter. 

E.P.S.  $.96, down from $1.33

NIM 3.57%, down from 3.81%, but up from 3.53% in the 2024 first quarter. 

"Net interest income for the second quarter of 2024 was $39.3 million, compared to $42.2 million reported for the same period of 2023, a decrease of $2.9 million, or 6.86%, driven primarily by higher interest expense. Interest income increased $4.5 million and interest expense increased $7.4 million year-over-year."

Efficiency Ratio: 64.56%, up from 58.01% 

NPL Ratio: .5%, up from .43%

Charge off ratio: .59%, up from .2%

"Credit loss provision was $3.0 million compared to provision of $1.8 million for the second quarter 2023"

"The increase in provision as well as charge-offs discussed below were related to one previously identified credit, reflecting further deterioration in collateral values in the quarter."

Coverage Ratio: 240.85%, down from 300.1%. 

ROE: 8.78%, down from 12.75%

Tangible Book Value per share: $36.04, up from $33.99.

Owned investment securities as of 3/31/24: 

10-Q at page 18 

The net unrealized loss was at $14.8M as of 12/31/21, 2021 Annual Report at page 41, and at -$7.141M as of 9/30/21, 10-Q at page 2020.

There was just a massive failure throughout the banking industry to adjust the duration of owned securities in 2021 when inflation was running hot and the FED had nonetheless continued its interest rate suppression monetary policies through ZIRP and QE. 

This is worth remembering. CPI was up 8.5% for the 12 month period ending on 3/31/22: 

Consumer Price Index News Release - 2022 M03 Results

B. Pared Duplicate Position in CTO -Sold 10 at $19.34 (Fidelity Account): 

Quote: CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) - Externally Managed REIT  

Proceeds: $193.4

The main CTO position is 120+ shares owned in my Schwab account with the AC per share at $17.66. The yield at that AC is 8.61%. 

CTO SEC Filings

Real Estate Portfolio Summary: 

In addition to owning real estate, CTO also provides management services to the publicly traded REIT Alpine Income Property Trust Inc (PINE) and owns about 15.8% of PINE's equity. 10-Q at page 20 

Fees and Dividends Received from PINE in the second quarter: $1.294M (page 18, 10-Q) 

CTO will also make mortgage and other commercial loans as more fully described at pages 16-17 of the last filed 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 and summarised in the following table: 

Weighted average shares diluted shares outstanding = 22,828,148 (if I multiplied that number by a $20 share price, the market capitalization would be about $456.563M. 

While the original face amount of those loans total only $55.4M, they represent a significant percentage of this REIT's market capitalization 

Last DiscussedItem # 1.B. Added to CTO - Bought 5 in Schwab Account at $17.13 (5/10/24 Post)(discussed 2024 first quarter report, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.K. Added to CTO - Bought 1 at $16.49 (3/1/2024 Post)(discussed 2023 4th quarter report, SEC Filed Press Release)

Profit Snapshot: +$2.91

New Average cost per share this account: $16.95 (35 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/24/25 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ($1.52 annually)

CTO  Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $16.95: 8.97%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): 

Revenues: $28.845M

AFFO and FFO numbers are what is attributable to the common shareholders after payment of the preferred stock dividend during the quarter. 

Core FFO per share = $.45

AFFO per share: $.48

Reconciliation net income to AFFO: 

As with other U.S. equity REITs, the noncash depreciation expense is the largest add back to GAAP net income. 

The next largest add back will be stock compensation which was $750,000 in the second quarter. 

Changes in the value of CTO's stock owneship in PINE may be an add back (if there is an unrealized decline in value) or a deduction (if there is an unrealized increase in value). In the second quarter, there was an increase of $663,000 so that amount was deducted in the FFO calculation. 

One issue that I have is that there is no deduction for routine maintenance expenses which is normally a deduction from FFO when arriving at AFFO (See AFFO definition at NAREIT, a REIT industry association). CTO does provide at page 24 of its supplemental information about capital expenditures but does not breakdown how much was spent on routine maintenance (a deduction from FFO) or capital improvements that increase the value of the properties (not a deduction).  

2024 Outlook:

Core FFO per share: $1.81 - $1.86

AFFO per share: $1.95 -$2.

SEC Filed Press ReleaseSEC Filed Investor PresentationSEC Filed Supplemental 

CTO Equity Preferred Stock: I also own the $25 par value equity preferred stock, CTO-PAthat has a 6.375% coupon. My AC per share is $18.89. {Last Discussed: Item #2.C. Added to CTOPRA - Bought 3 at $17.77 (11/11/23 Post)Item # 1.A. Bought 5 CTOPRA at $18.5; 2 at $17.8 (9/30/23 Post)}

There was a 3 for 1 stock split in 2022. CTO Realty Growth Announces Three-For-One Stock Split

C. Eliminated Duplicate CTO Position in Vanguard Account - Sold 25 at $19.98

Proceeds: $499.49

See Item #1.B. above. 

This account had my highest average cost per share. 

Profit Snapshot:  +$12.04

D. Pared BNL in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.85

Quote: Broadstone Net Lease Inc. (BNL) - Net Lease REIT 

Proceeds: $178.54 

Net Lease Definition and Types—Single, Double, Triple

This was my highest cost lot. Profitably selling the highest cost lots is one of the many stock risk management practices that I use. 

"BNL is an industrial-focused, diversified net lease REIT that invests in primarily single-tenant commercial real estate properties that are net leased on a long-term basis to a diversified group of tenants."

As of June 30, 2024, "BNL owned a diversified portfolio of 777 individual net leased commercial properties with 770 properties located in 44 U.S. states and seven properties located in four Canadian provinces, comprising approximately 38.5 million rentable square feet of operational space . . . The ABR weighted average lease term and ABR weighted average annual minimum rent increase, pursuant to leases on properties in the portfolio as of June 30, 2024, was 10.4 years and 2.0%, respectively."

Sourced: SEC Filed Press Release 

BNL SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report

This REIT has been selling its healthcare properties. SEC Filed Press Release 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.E. Added to BNL - Bought 5 at $14.57 (4/26/24 Post)Item # 1.I. Added to BNL - Bought 2 at $14.86 (3/1/24 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: $16.38

New average cost per share this account$14.87 (96+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/25/24 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually), last raised from $.285 for the 2024 second quarter payment. 

BNL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $14.87 AC = 7.8%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/28/24 (owned all as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): Released after this pare. 

SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental 

Revenue: $105.907M

FFO per share: $.37

AFFO per share: $.38

Net income to AFFO Reconciliation: 

"Portfolio was 99.3% leased based on rentable square footage, with only three of our 777 properties vacant and not subject to a lease at quarter end."

E. Eliminated WASH - Sold 10 at $32.32

Quote:Washington Trust Bancorp Inc. (WASH)

Proceeds: $323.14

WASH Analyst Estimates

SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $4.64

As discussed in my last post, I had a negative reaction to the second quarter earnings report. Item # 2.I. Eliminated WASH in my Schwab Account - Sold 14+ st $32.2 (7/26/24 Post)SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

WASH Realized Gains to Date: $2,724.68

The total includes a recent elimination in a ROTH IRA account. 

Most of the total gain was realized in two vintage transactions. Item # 2. Sold 50 of 100 WASH at  $22.44 (1/5/11 Post)(profit snapshot +$347.03); Item # 2. Eliminated WASH-Sold 50 at $61.53 (6/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $2,309.26)

Current Position: None. 

F. Eliminated MMM - Sold 3+ at 121.19

Quote: 3M Co.  (MMM) 

Proceeds: $484.28 

MMM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

3M Company Investor Relations 

3M Settlement with Public Water Suppliers to Address PFAS in Drinking Water Receives Final Court Approval 

3M Completes Spin-off of Solventum (SOLV) MMM investors received 1 shares of SOLV for 4 MMM shares.  

Profit Snapshot: Net of +$40.62

Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 per share, slashed from $1.51 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment. The slash was partly in response to the SOLV spinoff.  

MMM Dividend History | Nasdaq

3M's stock surges to 16-month high after dividend cut was less than feared | Morningstar (5/15/24)

Last Ex Dividend:  5/23/24 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): On 7/26/24, MMM reported better than expected second quarter earnings that resulted in the stock registering its largest daily percentage gain in over 40 years. 

In a comment published on 7/27/24, I mentioned that I sold into that rally since I did not want to read the 10-Q discussion of the lingering and significant liabilities including the remaining liabilities arising from the forever chemical PFAS. 10-Q at pages 24-46 

Highlights: 



Sourced:  SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24 

Current Position: None. 

G. Pared UL - Sold 10+ at $60.41:

Quote: Unilever PLC ADR (UL) 

Proceeds $628.63: 

I sold my highest cost lots using the specific identification method. 

ADR Ratio: 1/1

Ordinary shares are priced in British Pence:  Unilever PLC (ULVR.L) 

100 Pence = 1 Pound

British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Our brands | Unilever 

UL SEC Filings (foreign company SEC Forms)

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report 

UL  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Unilever ADRs use to trade under both the UL and UN symbols, with the later being the Unilever based in the Netherlands whose ordinary shares were traded in Euros. The two entities combined with UL being the surviving ADR with its ordinary shares traded in British Pence. Completion of Unilever’s Unification | Unilever

Last DiscussedItem # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in UL - Sold 28+ at $54.71 (5/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.95) 

Profit Snapshot: $47.23

New average cost per share: $48.61  (30+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/26/24 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate 

Unilever PLC Common Stock (UL) Dividend History | Nasdaq

The ADR price will generally reflect the price in British pence converted into USDs. 

Next Dividend: $.4773 per share. 

Last 4 Dividends: $1.86 per ADR share

Yield at $1.86 Annual Rate Using $48.61 AC = 3.83%

Last Earnings Report (Semiannual Period Ending 6/30/24): 

SEC Filing 

The shares popped in response to this report. 

I attribute the positive response to the 4.1% increase in revenue which importantly included a 2.6% increase in volume, the increase in operating margin, free cash flow generation and the increase in E.P.S. 

Starting in 2022, consumer product companies experienced a rapid rise in input costs that led to significant  price increases and to lower volumes. Organic sales may have grown some, but that was due to the revenue generated by price increases offsetting declines in volumes as customers responded by buying fewer products or substituting cheaper products for the brand names. 

It is important to see volume increases with modest price increases, leading to increased profits and higher operating margins. 

Unilever is based in the U.K. which does not currently have a dividend withholding tax. There will be a small fee taken out of the dividend to compensate the ADR custodian. 

As with other European companies, UL only reports volumes in the first and third quarters. Earnings reports occur only semiannually. 

Last Buy Discussions Item # 1.D. Added to UL in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $47 (1/26/24 Post)Item # 1.E. Bought 2 UL at $47.16  (11/25/23 Post)Item # 2.F. Added to UL - Bought 1 at $48.12; 3 at  $48.36 (11/18/23 Post)Item # 1.P. Added to UL in Fidelity Account - Bought 1 at $43.03 (4/25/22 Post)Item #2.I. Added to UL in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 2 at $42.55  (6/9/22 Post) 

Other Recent Sell Discussion:  Item # 5.A. Eliminated UL in Vanguard Account - Sold 8 at $55.33 (4/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.47 )

UL/UN Realized Gains to Date$3,819.07 (see other profit snapshots at Item # 5.A.)

The preceding total includes an elimination in a Roth IRA account a few days ago:

UL 7+ Shares +$70.06

Largest Gain: $2,512.5 on 70 shares sold in 2018

Other UN/UL Realized Gains over $200: 

 

H. Eliminated Duplicate Position in ALEX - Sold 11 at $19.81 (Schwab Account)

Quote: Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (ALEX) - A REIT

Proceeds: $217.9

ALEX " is a fully integrated real estate investment trust ("REIT") headquartered in Honolulu, Hawai‘i, whose history in Hawai‘i dates back to 1870. Over time, the Company has evolved from a 571-acre sugar plantation on Maui to become one of Hawai‘i's premier commercial real estate companies and the owner of the largest grocery-anchored, neighborhood shopping center portfolio in the state. The Company operates in two segments: Commercial Real Estate ("CRE") and Land Operations. As of June 30, 2024, the Company's commercial real estate portfolio resides entirely in Hawai‘i and consists of 22 retail centers, 13 industrial assets and four office properties, representing a total of 3.9 million square feet of gross leasable area ("GLA"), as well as 142.0 acres of commercial land, of which substantially all is leased pursuant to urban ground leases."

Home - Alexander & Baldwin

Last DiscussedItem # 2.M. Bought 5 ALEX at $20.85  (5/12/22 Post) Those shares are still owned in another taxable account. 

ALEX SEC Filings

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report 

Profit Snapshot: $37.5

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2225 ($.89 annually), last raised from $.22 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment. 

Last Ex Dividend: 6/14/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenue: $51.047M

FFO per share $.28

AFFO per share $.23

Reconciliation Net Income to AFFO: ALEX does deduct routine maintenance expenses and noncash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention from FFO to arrive at AFFO. nie

Occupancy: 93%

Remaining Position Taxable Accounts: 22+ shares 

I. Pared LXP in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.53

Quote: LXP Industrial Trust  (LXP)

Proceeds: $210.69

I sold my highest cost lots. 

LXP SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/24 

Management: Internal 

Last DiscussedItem # 1.D. Eliminated Duplicate Position in LXP - Sold 20 at $10.29 - Fidelity Account (7/26/24 Post) I discussed the first quarter report in that post. 

Profit Snapshot: $23.61

Average cost per share before pare: $8.64

Average cost per share after pare: $8.41 (60 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/31/24 after pare 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.13, last raised from $.125 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment, but slashed from $.1775 to $.1025 effective for the 2019 first quarter.   

LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

The dividend slash was in response to LXP selling 21 office properties in September 2018. Lexington Realty Trust Announces Disposition of 21 Office Assets for $726 Million to Joint Venture

Yield at New AC = 6.18%

Last Ex Dividend: 6/28/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release

Revenue: $85.786M, down from $87.05M

AFFO per share: $.16, down from $.18 in the 2023 second quarter. 

Funds Available for Distribution (FAD): $38.718M, down from $46.43M  

FAD per share: $.13087

(Dividend $38.718M by 296.32592M diluted shares)

Reconciliation Net Income to FAD: 


When calculating funds from operations, the realized gain of $8.635M from the sale of properties is deducted from net income. The major add back was the $46.937M non-cash depreciation expense.

One reason for the Y-O-Y decline in FAD was the increase in "Second generation lease costs to $8.15M from $1.401M. 

LXP defines those costs as follows: "Second Generation Costs: Represents cash spend for tenant improvements and leasing costs to maintain revenues at existing properties and are a component of the FAD calculation."

"First Generation Costs: Represents cash spend for tenant improvements, leasing costs and expenditures contemplated at acquisition for recently acquired properties with vacancy."

Non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention is also deducted from AFFO in the FAD calculation. Pretend cash is not available for distribution. 

"LXP now estimates that its net income attributable to common shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024 will be within an expected range of $0.10 to $0.13 per diluted common share. LXP is tightening its estimated Adjusted Company FFO for the year ended December 31, 2024, to be within an expected range of $0.62 and $0.65 per diluted common share." 

Ongoing Development Projects: 

LXP sold its last 2 remaining office properties and its property portfolio is now 100% industrial assets. 

LXP reported FAD per diluted share of $.25 in the 2014 second quarter.   SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/2014 For 2014, FAD per share was reported at $.86. Annual Report at page 11 

AFFO per share in the second quarter of 2022 was $.17, down from $.18 in the 2021 first quarter. FAD per share was reported at $.155 in the 2022 2dn Q.  SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22 

While LXP made the right choice to jettison its office properties, the decline in FFO and FAD per share over the past 10 years, the lack of a meaningful upswing in recent years, and the dividend slash from $.1775 to $.1025 in the 2019 second quarter, militate against a significant dollar exposure. And, the poor performance using per share data indicates that a buy the dip, sell the rip, even small ones, is necessary to achieve a satisfactory total return.   

LXP Realized Gains to Date: $2,013.85

J. Eliminated FFIC - Sold 13+ at $16.62

Quote: Flushing Financial Corp. (FFIC)

Proceeds: $223.08

FFIC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FFIC SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $85.95

Last DiscussedItem # 4.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FFIC - Sold 10+ at $14.05 (7/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.7); Item # 1. Eliminated FFIC in 1 Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $23.4 (2/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.91) 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.F. Restarted FFIC-Bought 10 at $12.25; 2 at $10.7; 5 at $10.6; 3 at $10.3; 10 at $10.2 (10/3/2020)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, last raised from $.21 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. In 2014, the quarterly dividend was at $.15. 

Flushing Financial Corporation (FFIC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/24 (owned as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24): 

Flushing Financial 2Q24 Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2023 second quarter. 

E.P.S. $.18, down from $.29

Core E.P.S. $.18, down from $.26

NIM 2.05%, down from 2.18%

Net Interest Income: $42.776M, down from $43.378M

Efficiency Ratio: 82.57% (way too high IMO), up from 73.82% (up is a negative for this ratio)

NPL Ratio: .51%, up from .27% 

NPA Ratio: .61%, up from .47%

Coverage Ratio: 120.58%

Charge Off Ratio:Net recovery of .01%

Tangible Book Value per share: $22.24, down from $22.47 

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 2 Sold 50 FFIC @ $14.51 (5/2/11 Post)Item # 4 Sold 50 FFIC at $13.53 (10/31/11 Post)(profit snapshot in 10/31/11/ Post at $200.7); Item # 2.H.  Pared FFIC-Sold 10 at $14.05 and 5 at $16 (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.96); Item # 1.H. Eliminated FFIC in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $18.85  (2/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.28); Item # 1.E. Pared FFIC-Sold 5 at $24.52 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $63.93); Item # 1.E. Sold 5 FFIC at $23.4 (2/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.91) 

FFIC Realized Gains to Date: $560.95

2. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/29/24 Auction

91 Day Bill: 

Matures on 10/31/25

Interest: $65.03 

Investment Rate: 5.285%

B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/29/24 Auction - 2 Accounts: 


182 Day Bill  

Matures on 1/30/25: 

Interest: $124.62 

Investment Rate: 5.126%

C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/31/24 Auction

119 Day Bill 

Matures on 12/3/2024

Interest: $84.13

Investment Rate: 5.249%


D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 8/1/24 Auction


56 Day Bills

Mature on 10/1/24: 

Interest: $40.68

Investment Rate: 5.346%


3. Corporate Bond ETFs

A. Started SCHI - Bought 5 at $44.57

Quote: Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF Overview 

Cost: $222.83 

Sponsor's website: SCHI 

"The investment seeks to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Bloomberg US 5-10 Year Corporate Bond Index. . . . The index measures the performance of U.S. investment grade, taxable corporate bonds with maturities greater than or equal to five years and less than ten years that have $300 million or more of outstanding face value. It is the fund's policy that under normal circumstances it will invest at least 90% of its net assets in securities included in the index."

Expense Ratio: .03%

Holdings as of 6/30/24: 2,192

Weighted average maturity as of 6/29/24: 7.4 years

Effective Duration as of 6/29/24: 6.13 years

Weighted average coupon as of 6/29/24: 4.22%

SCHI Page at Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Dividends: Paid monthly at a variable rate. 

Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF (SCHI) Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 7/1/24

4. TIP Purchase Roth IRA account

A. Bought 1 TIP 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 7/15/33 at a Total Cost of 94.99218

Principal Amount: 94.99218 x. 10 = 949.92

Original Issued: 7/31/23

Inflation Factor: 1.03373


The inflation factor is from 7/25, the settlement date, not the purchase date. 

Sourced from TIPS/CPI Query Results — TreasuryDirect

Multiply 949.92 x. inflation factor of 1.03373 = $981.96, paid to the seller

Accrued Interest paid to the seller: $.39. The last semiannual payment was on 7/15/24. 

I will receive the inflation accretion to the principal amount starting on 7/26/24. 

Real Yield: 1.987%

How Do I Calculate the Yield of an Inflation Adjusted Bond?

I have started to extend the maturities of my TIP ladder. I have 2 that mature in January 2025 and 4 in April 2025, both in my Vanguard Roth IRA account: 

Third Party Price as of 7/26/24

Almost all of  the total return for those two maturies will be in the inflation accretion to the principal amounts given the low coupons. The coupon is paid on the inflation adjusted principal amount. 

When calculating "profit" for a TIP purchase, the cost basis used in the Vanguard's calculation is not what I actually paid for the TIP, but appears to be the original principal amount as accreted by inflation since purchase. 

To calculate a total return, I can not use the difference between the adjusted cost basis and the redemption proceeds paid at maturity, but have to subtract the original cost from the redemption proceeds and then add the actual interest payments. 

Since I have never owned a TIP in a taxable account, I have not researched the tax accounting issue, and do not intend to ever do so. 

Adding the inflation accretion to the cost basis makes sense when held in a taxable account since the owner has to pay a tax on the accrued interest, even though the interest is not "received" until the TIP is redeemed or sold. 

To avoid double taxation of the interest accretion, the cost basis would have to be increased to reflect the interest accretion to the principal amount.  

It does not make sense to do this accounting when the TIP is held in a Roth IRA account since I am not paying a tax on the accrued interest.  

The accounting done by Vanguard requires me to look at my original confirmation to see how much was paid to the seller (price + the inflation factor) or at auction in order to do a total return calculation. 

What Are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)?

TIPS and Inflation | Charles Schwab

TIPS — TreasuryDirect

5. Exchange Traded Bonds

Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

The rationale for increasing my exposure in this category is that the FED is highly likely to cut rates at least 25 basis points in September and possibly as much as 50 basis points, which will lower the yields of short term securities like Treasury Bills and short term corporate bonds. An important consideration is that I have an extreme overweight in short term treasury bills, corporate bonds and CDs.

Par Value $25 

Trade like stocks on the stock exchange. 

Trade Flat, meaning whoever owns on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, which is how stocks trade. 

A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $22.1

Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066  (ELC)

Cost $221

Entergy Louisiana is an operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).

I discussed this exchange traded first mortgage bond in my last post. Item # 5.A. 

Prospectus

Coupon: 4.875% paid on a $25 par value

Interest Payments: Quarterly

First Mortgage Bond, with lien attaching to substantially all assets. 

New Average cost per share:  $21.67 (70 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 7/26/24 after add

Yield at new AC = 5.62%

(.04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $21.67 average cost per share = 5.6241%)

Next Ex Interest Date: 8/30/24. 

Credit Ratings: A2/A

I own a number of first mortgage bonds issued by utility operating companies. Most of them are $1,000 par value bonds purchased in the bond market. The most recent purchase was 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.78% FM bond maturing on 4/1/25. Item # 4.C. (6/28/24 Post)(YTM at TC was then at 5.59%) 

For exchange traded first mortgage bonds with $25 par values, I own EAI, ELC, and EMP.  

As previously discussed, I prefer buying the $1,000 par value bonds maturing in 2028 or earlier since I can control the interest rate risk with those short term bonds which is a major issue with owning ELC.   

B. Added to ELC in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $21.98


Cost: $219.8 

See Item #5.A. above. 

Average cost per share this account: $21.28 (40 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/30/24 after add

Yield at AC = 5.727%

C. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $22.07

Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)

Cost: $220.7

Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)

Last DiscussedItem # 7.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $21.7; 10 at $21.5; 10 at $21.27 (5/24/24 Post)Item # 6.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $21.64 and Item # 6.B. Added 20 EAI in My Fidelity at $21.62 and Added 30 at $21.5 in my Schwab Account (12/30/23 Post)Item # 6.B. Added 5 EAI at $21.6 - Vanguard Taxable Account (12/16/23 Post)Item # 5. Added to EAI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.5; 5 at $21.22 (11/25/23 Post)Item # 5.B. Added 5 EAI at $20.1; 5 at $19.85 - Schwab Account (10/21/23 Post)Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $20.62; 5 at $20.36 (10/14/23 Post)

Current Position in Taxable Accounts: 270 shares

Average cost per share this account: $22.14 (70 shares)

Yield at $22.14: 5.5%

Next Ex Interest: 8/30/24

First Mortgage bond with lien attaching to substantially all assets. 

Prospectus

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 4.875%

Maturity: 9/1/66

Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 9/1/2021. 

Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)

Interest Payments: Quarterly

I owned 3 Entergy Arkansas 3.7% first mortgage bonds ($1,000 par value) that matured on 6/1/24. 

I still own 3 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% first mortgage bonds ($1,000 par value) that mature on 4/1/2026. Bond Page | FINRA.org

D. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $22.1

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD)

Cost: $110.47

The issuer was acquired by Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd. (BNRE) and now operates as a wholly owned subsidiary of BNRE. It is my understanding that BNRE is not legally obligated to pay this debt obligation but is unlikely to allow a default having paid cash to acquire Argo. Brookfield Reinsurance Completes $1.1 Billion Acquisition of Argo Group

Cost: $110.47

Last DiscussedItem # 7.A. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $21.84 (5/17/24 Post)Item # 5.A. Added to ARGD - Bought 5 at $21.97 (12/2/23 Post)Final Prospectus Supplement

Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5%
Placement in Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured Bond
Maturity: 9/15/2042
Issuer Optional Call on or after 4/17/2017 
Interest paid quarterly
Trades flat (whoever owns on the ex interest day receives the entire quarterly payment)
Annual Interest payment on 125 shares: $203.12

New Average cost per share: $22.58 (125 Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 7/26/24 after add. 

Current Yield at AC = 7.12%

(.065% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.625 annual interest per share ÷ $22.58 average cost per share = 7.12%)

A YTM would be about 7.48%, using this calculator. Yield to Maturity Calculator | Calculate YTM The YTM assumes that all interest payments are made and the bond is paid off on the 9/15/42 maturity date. If the bond was called at par value five years from now, which would be at the issuer's option, the YTM would increase to 8.92%. 

Next Ex Interest Date: 8/30/24

Credit Rating: AM Best rates the SU debt at BBB-. AM Best Removes Under Review With Developing Implications; Affirms Credit Ratings of Argo Group International Holdings, Inc. and Its Subsidiaries

ARGD-AGIIL Realized Gains to Date$653.79

Purchase Restriction: Each purchase must lower my average cost per share. The maximum position is 150 shares. With interest rates trending down, the yield becomes more attractive to me. 

6. Small Ball Buys

I will likely continuing adding 1 to 3 share lots in BOTZ and IRBO provided each subsequent purchase can be made at the lowest price in the chain. 

A. Added 1 BOTZ at $30.56, 1 at $29.89; 3 at $29.54

Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Cost: $149.07

Sponsor's website: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)

Expense ratio: .68% 

Last Discussed:  Item # 2.E. Restarted BOTZ - Bought 5 at $31.33 (7/19/24 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $30.57 (10 shares)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 9 at $26.53  (5/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.39); Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.52)

BOTZ - Morningstar (unrated)

BOTZ – Portfolio: Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

B. Added 1 IRBO at $33.11; 4 at $32.48


Cost: $163.03

Quote: IRBO | iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF Overview

Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Restarted IRBO - Bought 5 at $33.93 (7/12/24 Post) 

Sponsor's website: iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF | IRBO

Expense Ratio: .47%

New average cost per share: $33.27 (10 shares)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.I. Eliminated IRBO - Sold 2 at $33.5 (10/2/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.87)

IRBO Page at  Morningstar (rated 2 stars) 

IRBO – Performance - Morningstar - Wild. 

C. Started UMH - Bought 10 at $17.57

Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) - A REIT that rents and sales manufactured homes. 

Cost: $176.74

UMH SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 As of 3/31/24, UMH "Owns and operates 136 manufactured home communities containing approximately 25,800 developed homesites. . . These communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina and Georgia. The Company also has an ownership interest in and operates two communities in Florida through its joint venture with Nuveen Real Estate . . . The Company, through its wholly-owned taxable subsidiary, UMH Sales and Finance, Inc. (“S&F”), sells manufactured homes to residents and prospective residents in our communities. Inherent in the operations of manufactured home communities are site vacancies. S&F was established to fill these vacancies and enhance the value of the communities. The Company holds a 77% controlling interest in an opportunity zone fund which it created to acquire, develop and redevelop manufactured housing communities located in areas designated as Qualified Opportunity Zones by the U.S. Treasury Department. . ."  

I have never owned the common stock. 

I did start a small ball position in a UMH preferred stock, UMH-PD, and currently own only 10 shares. Item # 6.C. Added to UMHPRD - Bought 5 at 20.28, Bonds (10/7/23 Post)Item # 5.A. Started UMHPRD - Bought 5 at $21.23 (8/26/23 Post) This equity preferred stock has a 6.375% coupon paid on a $25 par value. The yield at my average cost per share is 7.68%. I intend to add to that position when and if the price sinks below $20. 

2nd Quarter Operations Update (7/10/24): SEC Filing This is not the second quarter earnings report. 


The second quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on 8/6 after the market closes. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.215 ($.86 annually), last raised from $.205 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment. 

UMH Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $17.57: 4.89%

Next Ex Dividend: 8/15/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):  

SEC Filing 


7. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 8/1/24My taxable accounts are managed to generate a constant stream of cash flow throughout the month. The cash flow will consist of interest and dividend payments plus redemption proceeds from corporate bonds, CDs and treasuries. Interest payments will significantly exceed dividends. 

Redemption Proceeds: $9,000  


Corporate bond are bought at discounts to par value. The YTM will frequently be significantly higher than the coupon. 

Interest and Dividend Payments (excluding T Bill interest realized from the matured $5,000 T Bill)





Municipal Bond Interest: None
Corporate Bonds Interest: $896
Common Stock Dividends:  $91.73
CEF Monthly Dividends: $19.79
CD Interest (all monthly-Live Oak): $30.75  
Total: $1,038.27

I will own a number of CEFs that pay monthly dividends. 

In my Fidelity account, the goal is to maintain at least $200 in monthly dividends paid by CEFs. I will trade the positions as part of my risk management.   

The total of $19.79 includes payments made by BWG, ERC, JQC, JRI, and PPT. In this account on 7/31/24, I received $94.76 from the following CEFs: AIO, AOD, AVK, BHK, BSTZ, FSCO, GLQ, MEGI, MIN, MMT, NCZ, THQ and WIW.   

Other of my taxable accounts will have some duplicate CEF positions. The largest JRI position is in my Vanguard taxable account. The largest MIN position is in my Schwab account.  

CDs and corporate bonds sold by Fidelity as initial offerings will frequently have call features. I am okay with some very limited exposure to those offerings provided (1) there is some significant increase in the yield compared to offerings maturing at the same time with call protection and (2) the maturity is within 1 year. 

I had this Citigroup bond called early on 7/31/24: 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.      

27 comments:

  1. U.S. 6 Month Treasury Bill
    4.847% -0.209
    Last Updated: Aug 2, 2024 12:14 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd06m?countrycode=bx

    This yield is factoring in at least a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut in the FF range, and a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut, when the FED next meets in September.

    I am experiencing more early calls of corporate bonds. I noted that a $1,000 par value first mortgage bond, which I owned, that was scheduled to mature on 11/1/24 was called yesterday.

    The best option today that I could find to redirect proceeds received from maturing securities was a Aa2/AA rated GO municipal bond maturing on 3/1/28, with a 3% coupon, that I bought at a 98.08 total cost. I will discuss that 5 bond purchase in my next post. Municipal bonds trade in 5 bond lots so 5 is the minimum order that can be placed. The YTM at my total cost is 3.577%.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I lost about 20k in the last 2 days. I don't have anything in bonds. I assume the short-term 6 month bills wouldn't increase enough to be worth selling.

    I bought 3 spy six IWM yesterday after hours. Hoping for a trade upward from all the selling.

    Good to know about spaxx. I was talking with Fidelity about rolling over the 401K that's with fidelity net benefits, and they were saying that if I put enough into that fund, I can immediately draw it out, but continue to get the high rate. Have to complicated maneuvering for my preferences.

    News talks about soft economic data pointing towards a recession instead of a soft landing being the reason for the extreme pullback. I've wondered if risk of war with Iran is on the table but I haven't heard mention of it. (Israel's worried about it. Much as I Don't want more, getting rid of iran's dictatorship with the whole host of problems in the world.)

    I have quite a bit in small cap and that's been what's careening down like usual at the beginning of a pullback, (and in the middle and the end of a pullback.) But if this pullback continues, I'll have a chance to do that 401k conversion and buy some stocks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The CME FEDWatch tool has a 96.7% probability that the FF range will be 75 basis points lower on or before the December 2024 FED meeting:

      https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

      I do not believe that the FED will cut 50 basis points in September. My current prediction is 25 basis point cuts at both the September and December meetings. The 50 basis point cut in September will require a continued slowdown in inflation and more evidence of a weakening economy.

      The consensus opinion, as reflected in bond and stock movements last week, did shift from a certain belief in a soft landing to a possibility of a recession or at least a concern that the soft landing scenario was meaningfully less probable than certain.

      SPAXX will always be near a .3% to .32% lower yield than the comparable Vanguard MM fund for as long as its expense ratio is .42%.

      Iran would be foolish to risk a war with Israel that may draw the U.S. into the conflict. Iran will do something, like a massive drone and missile attack similar to what it did last April after Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Iran may also target one or more Israelis for assasination.

      The fear of an escalating conflict in the Middle East is elevating gold's price some, but the downtrend in crude prices suggest that the consensus opinion is that the conflict will not significantly escalate.

      The VIX did a moon shot last week, closing at 23.89. Generally, I require a reading of over 25 coming out of a Stable Vix Pattern to start the count for a Trigger Event in my Vix Model.

      https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/3373095-vix-asset-allocation-model

      Delete
    2. The idea of looking at oil is great. I suspect Iran will do something similar too. Make a 'statement' without pulling itself into war.

      Airlines cancelled to Israel is enough damage.

      I was watching the VIX, and wondering if it's trigger a count but mostly it was under 20. I didn't noticed the 23.89 day.

      Pre-2000 there was a parabolic rise, a significant down, then another parabolic rise before the breakage began. While history doesn't repeat, I suspect that pattern may be from investor's emotional patterns, so something similar will repeat. Meaning that after a downturn, the FOMO will trigger another leg.

      Then again, I don't own predictive crystal balls. Just a few colorful marbles.

      My rate prediction is one cut before elections based on data slowing down. Then a collective FED panic, and tough verbiage and nothing more until next year.

      What's puzzling to me is how investors decide one set of #s means softlanding and another means recession. They aren't that different, they aren't very concrete (get readjusted, are surveys, etc.). The reactions are outsized to a small shift from one thought (softlanding) to the other (recession.)

      Delete
  3. I just checked my Fidelity account. The bonds took me to a $719.94 increase in value yesterday, more than offsetting the decline in the 13% weighting in stocks.

    The stock component went down far less than market averages with several stock gains including CUBE, ENB, GIS, HR, KMB, MDT, NNN, NOMD, NSA, PINE, SBRA, UL and VZ. Equity preferred stocks and exchange traded bonds were up as well.

    Stock gainers were concentrated in the equity REIT, pipeline, and consumer staple sectors.

    Recently added bond ETFs were up. Several bond CEFs had marginal gains (BHK, BWG) or were unchanged (MIN, MMT)

    Regional bank stocks had their second bad day in a row as concerns about the economy reemerged. A recession will cause an increase in bad loans, charge offs and lower loan demand.

    The BDC sector continued to decline. Besides the fear of more loan going bad, a decline in short term rates after FED rate cuts will eat into their net investment income on floating rate loans priced at spreads to short term rates, compressing their net interest margins since much of their borrowings are at fixed rates. I have seen an increase in nonperforming loans among several BDCs in the second quarter (e.g. OCSL).

    The largest percentage gainer in this account yesterday was CLPR, up 15.07% which narrowed my unrealized loss by $164.

    The pop was due to a better than anticipated second quarter report:

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649096/000143774924024286/ex_706547.htm

    Website:
    https://clipperrealty.com/

    While that REIT is primarily a NYC apartment REIT, it owns an office property (250 Livingston St in NYC) where the existing tenant announced that it intended to vacate in August 2025. While that would not be a major event for a mid or large sized REIT, the CLPR market capitalization is less than $70M after yesterday's surge in price, so it is a big deal for that company.

    An apartment building located at 10W 65th Street property may be sold at less than book value. That building is 6 stories with 76,000 square feet of residential rental space.

    https://clipperrealty.com/properties/10-west-65/

    And there is ongoing negotiation for a 5 year lease renewal at 141 Livingston with the lease expiring in December 2025.

    Page 15, 10-Q
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649096/000143774924024284/clpr20240630_10q.htm

    So the 2 office properties on Livingston Street, which appear to be old structures, are a problem that have depressed the stock price.

    The 953 Dean Street property development is a 9 story residential apartment building with with approximately 160,000 square feet of residential rental GLA and approximately 9,000 square feet of retail rental GLA.

    CLPR is my riskiest REIT investment and consequently my dollar exposure is small at a .15% weighting in 1 of 5 taxable accounts.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Buffett has been selling stock and has recently increased Berkshire's cash holdings to $277B. The selling included almost 1/2 of Berkshire's stake in Apple.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/03/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-sold-nearly-half-its-stake-in-apple.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is interesting. Though it may be a specific assessment of Apple since Buffett notoriously doesn't mark time.

      Delete
    2. But if specific to Apple, it says something about the MAGMAN rally since apple's in the bunch.

      Delete
    3. Land: Buffett has been selling more than just Apple shares. Berkshire had $163.291B in cash and short term treasury bills as of 12/31/22. As of 6/30/24, that total had risen to $271.602B.

      The second quarter report is available at Berkshire's website.

      This is a pdf link:
      https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr24.pdf

      I would note the statement from Mastercard that I referenced in the economy section of this post. As long as the consumers continue to increase spending, the economy will avoid a recession, but that can turn quickly when and if they get a scare about the economy sinking and start worrying about losing their jobs.

      I would agree with Mark Zandi's recent comments in a CNN interview:


      "MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY'S ANALYTICS: And it's a mortgage loan, you're locked in with low interest rate. The stock market was down on Friday but it's up an awfully lot in the past several years, so they're much wealthier. Most people who own a home, two-thirds of Americans own their own home, they're sitting pretty because their house prices are up. So you kind of mix that all up and look that, you say consumers are going to hang tough. If they hang tough, the economy will be just fine.

      And so, you know, despite the mistakes and judgment that the Fed is making here, I think we should be good. But having said all of that, the Fed got to start cutting interest rates and start moving here quickly."

      Delete
    4. Thanks for all those details.

      Yep, recessions are self-generating - fear of one creates consumer and business tightening.

      Delete
    5. There is a typo in the year reference to Berkshire's cash and treasury bill holdings as of 12/31/23 where I typed 22 rather than 23.

      So the Berkshire cash and treasury bill position has grown by $108.311B in just 6 months. Another major holding slashed in size this year is BAC. He sold $3.8B in BAC stock over just a 12 day period:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/buffetts-berkshire-sells-3point8-billion-worth-of-bank-of-america-in-12-day-selling-spree.html

      Delete
  5. How much does a grown via interest? My money's been growing from a combo of savings and interest as well as the market.

    Just trying to explore the possibilities that aren't quite as dour sounding.

    Is BAC particularly in trouble or is it probably just the banking sector? I suspect the sector is going to be weak until it's clear that we've skipped a recession

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: If I assumed that Berkshire earned 5.5% on $163.291B for 6 months, which would be a little high for T Bills, that would add about $4.491B, leaving about $103.82B of the increase this year to proceeds from stock sales.

      I believe that most of the BAC sales were after 6/30/24 which would have increased the cash and treasury bill total above the $271+B reported as of 6/30/24.

      Last SEC Form 4 on BAC (sales 7/30/24 - 8/1/24)
      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024089567/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

      Other recent form 4s on BAC

      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024087477/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024086209/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

      https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024085022/xslF345X05/ownership.xml

      There is no telling whether the pace of selling has continued into August.

      Buffett has substantially increased the Berkshire Hathaway position in treasury bills at a time when the yields on those bills are about to decline.

      Delete
    2. He has better timing than me. Not that that's a big surprise :).

      Delete
  6. So interest definitely isn't the factor.

    My small amount of buying in my Roth account was definitely not good timing. (About 2500) That account, somehow I make the wrong moves in.

    Vix is at 32+. So the count begins, day one (If it closes up)

    I still find it amazing that the market moved from soft landing to recession so quickly based on not much difference from one day to the next.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Land: Moves out of a stable vix pattern (steady movement below 20) can be fast which is the case now with the parabolic up move in the VIX.

    It occurs when investors become increasingly concerned that the consensus opinion about the economy is called into question creating doubt in the validity of that opinion.

    In the current case, the consensus was that the FED had engineered a soft landing notwithstanding the rapid rise in the federal funds rate starting in March 2022, as it belatedly responded to hot inflation. The FED's monetary policies were a major contributor to the onset of problematic inflation.

    Part of the down move in stocks is attributable to buying interest drying up as the thundering herd moves to the exit door at the same time. I call that phenomenon "internal market dynamics" that accelerate a correction into overdrive.

    The move down can be aggravated when multiples are already high which is the case now.

    On a day like today, I may do some scatter shot buying of dividend stocks, which usually means buying 5 -15 stocks and spending about $1,000 to $2,000.

    My extremely heavy weighting in Tennessee municipal bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, CDs, treasury bills and treasury money market funds will prevent much of a decline in my total portfolios value today. The decline in interest rates last Friday resulted in a small increase in the portfolios value notwithstanding the plunge in stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The CME FedWatch tool currently has the probability at 97.5% that the FED will cut the FF rate by 50 basis points on or before the September meeting.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

    I did participate in today's 3 and 6 month T bill auctions.

    The 6 month bill was auctioned at a 4.881% investment rate. The IR was 5.185% at the 7/15/24 auction and at 5.377% at the 6/10/24 auction.

    So the Fed has done nothing yet to change the FF range, currently at 5.25% to 5.5%, but the market is anticipating that cuts will soon happen and that is reflected in the downdrift in the 6 month T Bill IR.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
    $82.09 $3.47 +4.41%
    Last Updated: Aug 6, 2024 at 10:57 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/oke?mod=search_symbol

    I own just 9+ shares with a $22.1 average cost per share. 9 shares were bought in the open market between 7/6/2020 to 9/4/2020 and I reinvested 3 quarterly dividends before turning the reinvestment option off after the 2021 first quarter payment.

    The rise in the share price today is due to a better than expected second quarter report.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1039684/000103968424000135/okeq22024earningsrelease.htm

    Williams Cos. (WMB)
    $42.94 +$ 1.70 +4.12%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wmb?mod=search_symbol

    Willians, another energy infrastructure company, reported earnings as well.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107263/000010726324000075/wmb_20240630xer.htm

    I have recently pared my WMB position down to 100+ shares at an average cost per share of $23.86.

    I also own PBA, TRP and ENB in this sector.

    Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
    $38.01 +$ 0.71 +1.90%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/enb?mod=search_symbol

    TC Energy Corp. (TRP)
    $43.12 + 0.89 +2.12%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/trp?mod=search_symbol

    Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA)
    $38.13 +$0.43 +$1.14%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pba?mod=search_symbol

    ENB, PBA and TRP are Canadian companies. Those symbols are for the U.S. exchange listed shares prices in USDs. The price will be influenced by changes in the CAD/USD exchange rate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I also own 100 shares of Kinder Morgan (KMI) with a $14.41 AC per share. The current quarterly dividend is $.2875 per share ($1.15 annually), creating a dividend yield of 7.98% at the $14.41 AC.

      Kinder Morgan Inc.
      $20.55 +$0.47 +2.32%
      Last Updated: Aug 6, 2024 at 11:29 a.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kmi?mod=search_symbol

      I am having some difficulty in recalling what I own.

      My largest positions in securities issued by energy infrastructure companies are in the reset equity preferred securities issued by Enbridge and Pembina.

      500 ENBPRP:CA

      400 PPLPRC:CA

      Delete
  10. I was not impressed with the rebound rally today.

    The S&P 500 index closed at 5,240.03, up 53.7 or 1.04% but the gain faded from a high of 5,312.34.

    The S&P 500 index declined 160.23 points yesterday and is down 282.27 at today's close from a closing high of 5,522.3 on Wednesday 7/31/24. The employment report was released last Friday.

    The concern about an economic slowdown remains even though some external market dynamic factors like plunge last Monday in Japan's stock market eased.

    As I mentioned in the YT video, it is too early to form an opinion that the economy is about to enter a recession.

    Paul Krugman wrote an opinion column published yesterday in the NYT titled "The Economy is Looking Pre-Recessionary".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/opinion/interest-rates-federal-reserve.html

    I would not based that conclusion on just one employment report. Confirmation that the labor market is weakening in both the August and September reports would be a trend.

    The weakening ISM manufacturing reports is not too concerning since the U.S. economy is based on consumer spending which still remains a positives and employment in the services sector.

    ISM reported that the services PMI was at 51.4%, up from 48.8% in June, with the new orders component rising to 52.4% from 47.3%.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-51-4-july-2024-services-ism-report-on-business-302213521.html

    While I pay attention to the various surveys of purchasing managers, I tend to discount the importance since they are just samples and the manufacturing sector is far less important than the services sector which is back in an expansion mode.

    I have bought $10,000 in principal amount of two Tennessee GO municipal bonds maturing in 2028 which I will mention in my next post.

    I will be buying 5 of the 4 month treasury bills at tomorrow's auction. The yield rose slightly today as interest rates went back up slightly.

    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202408

    I remain far more concerned about the reinvestment options for maturing treasury bills and notes, CDs, and corporate bonds than about my stock allocation which recovered today what it lost yesterday. That is one reason for buying again short term municipal bonds and doing more nibbling in exchange traded bonds, bond and preferred stock ETFs. I added 10 PFXF today as an example.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Futures for tomorrow are negative as of 8pm.

      Looks that way to me too, there may be a mini rally here, but this wasn't a capitulation rally. It was pretty close to the floor in the chart, so it 'had' to rally but it fizzled by day's end. Also that it's not possible to tell yet if it'll be soft landing or recession. I still lean toward enough surprisingly strong consumers for a soft landing to be possible.

      Does the VIX counting start at over 20 or 25? I'm not remembering (I can look it up on the description pages.) I thought it was 25.

      Does Walz and Harris change your calculus that Trump will definitely win? Looks like they have a solid chance to me. I haven't seen polls yet, but the fundraising's so strong. Plus the 'weird' reply is the 1st undermining of Trump-isms and attack behavior that we've seen.

      I'm not keen on Harris. Several reservations. But I am keen on not living through 4+ more years of Trump-itis and need to swallow bleach to cure it.

      Delete
    2. Land: I did previously express an opinion that Biden had no path to victory but his exit has probably brought the race close to a tie, but with Trump-Vance losing momentum. The Democrats have been raising more money.

      There is a sizeable contingent of voters who would fall into the category of anybody but Trump and those span the ideological spectrum.

      I view Waltz as a plus in that he is likeable and relatable, something that Vance is not. Waltz is a far better selection for the democrats than Vance is for the GOP.

      The day count for the Trigger event requires closing VIX readings over 25.

      My best guess is that investors will try to rally stocks again tomorrow. What I would want to see from a market dynamics viewpoint is strength into the close which did not happen today.

      Delete
  11. I was impressed with Kamala's ability to present at last night's introduction of her VP pick. I hadn't seen her speak that well before. Also wonder who's writing her speeches. It's well done.

    They brought a fresh happy energy. That should play well. I'm sure I'm not the only one who forgot about that possibility.

    Walz has that good old neighbor feel, while being ambitious enough to have done interviews on a number of channels before the pic was made.

    ____

    Futures for today are green.

    I expect volatility to be the winner over the next few weeks or month. Meaning that the market will react strongly to economic news, both up and down.

    ReplyDelete
  12. After starting out strong, the stock market faded again as the day progressed and closed down.

    S&P 500: 5,199.50 -40.53 (-0.77%)

    While a .77% decline is not troublesome by itself, the failure to sustain a rally after the big down day last Monday is, and that is keeping me on the sidelines.

    Rally attempts are being sold, not bought. The path of least resistance appears to be down using currently available information.

    The VIX closed today at 27.15, the third consecutive close above 25. This has relevance to the day count for a Trigger Event in my Vix Asset Model.

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/3373095-vix-asset-allocation-model

    This what the Trigger Event looked like in August 2007 which then was confirmation in November 2007, January 2008 and March 2008:

    Aug 21, 2007 25.25
    Aug 20, 2007 26.33
    Aug 17, 2007 29.99
    Aug 16, 2007 30.83
    Aug 15, 2007 30.67
    Aug 14, 2007 27.68
    Aug 13, 2007 26.57
    Aug 10, 2007 28.04
    Aug 9, 2007 24.46

    The Trigger Event ends the Stable Vix Pattern and ushers in the Unstable Vix Pattern. The Stable Vix Pattern started in the 2023 first quarter with steady movement below 20, bursting out of that steady movement with a close at 23.39 on Friday 8/2/24, up from 18.59 the previous day, which was followed by a spike to 38.57 on Monday 8/5:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/

    ReplyDelete
  13. That sure was a fade. Not unexpected but I have to change my hopes to a strong crash so I can do the 401k conversion. I was enjoying the parabolic rise.

    The early rally today plus yesterday's didn't make it up to the low point that I bought at after hours on Friday 8/2 which was the first big down day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The Stock Jocks are going to try a rally again today based on the better than expected initial unemployment claim number for the week ending 8/3/24.

      One of the negative data points that contributed to the stock market's recent decline, since it reinforced the problematic July jobs report, was an increase of the initial claims to 250,000 which was close to a 1 year high. Today's weekly report had the initial claims number falling back 17,000.

      It still remains an open question whether the July employment report is the start of a new trend that supports a recession thesis or just a one off in a data series that jumps around a lot.

      My gut has informed me that it is the start of a trend that points to an economic slowdown in the third quarter but probably not the start of a recession -this year- given current consumer spending levels.

      Delete
  14. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/08/arcc-bhk-cvi-emp-gis-good-irm-k-khc-nnn.html

    ReplyDelete