Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction (Item # 2): $40,000 in principal amount
Since I anticipate a significant reduction in income from treasury bills in 2026, I am boosting my dollar investments in dividend paying common stocks and equity preferred stocks.
Inflow Small Ball Common Stock Purchases (no sales): $2,094.03 (Item # 1)
I will be profitably eliminating or paring some stock positions in January 2026 that generate no or minimal dividend income.
Inflow REIT Equity Preferred Stocks (Item # 3): $454.22
Inflow Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bond (Item # 4): $210
Inflow Bitcoin ETFs (Item # 5): $372.16
Bitcoin is in a bear market of unknowable duration. I noted in a post published about 1 month ago that parabolic spikes in prices have a tendency to collapse. The only question is when and how far the price will decline. Parabolic Spikes in Gold and Silver Prices - YouTube
Treasury Yield Curve November 2025
Treasury Real Yield Curve November 2025
10 year breakeven inflation rate: 2.24%
5 year breakeven inflation rate: 2.32%
Probability of a 25 FF Basis Point Cut in December: 71%
Sourced: FedWatch - CME Group
I had 1 bond called early in my Fidelity account with the proceeds credited next Monday:
Morgan Stanley hikes S&P 500 target for next year. Here are the plays to make. - MarketWatch (subscription publication). The general thesis is that the growth negative factors including tariffs and federal job cuts will dissipate and be replaced by growth positive factors including tax cuts and deregulation. Morgan Stanley is currently estimating that the S&P 500 earnings per share will be $272 this year, up 12% from 2024; at $317 in 2026, up 17%; and at $356 in 2027, up 12%.
Ray Dalio says we are definitely in a AI bubble, but that doesn't mean you should sell yet
Jeffrey Gundlach Says Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued | Odd Lots - YouTube
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Economy:
The New York Fed President increased the likelihood of a FED rate cut in December by stating that a further adjustment was needed over the near time as his concerns about a weakening job market outweighed concerns about inflation. One Fed official may have saved market from another rout. Why John Williams' remarks matter so much I discussed his comments in a comment published on 11/21/25.
The BLS reported that the economy added 119,000 jobs in September. "The job numbers for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported." (emphasis added) Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M09 Results The numbers were extremely weak before being revised down.
Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 3.8%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment was reported at 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August:
The seasonally adjusted U-6 number was reported at 8%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2025 M09 Results The U-6 number has been trending higher in 2025, with December 2024 reported at 7.5%. Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force (U-6) (U6RATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
With the shutdown interfering with data collection, the BLS will not release a full October employment report and will delay the release of the November report until 12/16/25. The September report will be the last jobs report available to the Fed when making a decision on interest rates at its December member on 12/9-10/25.
October would be the first month that federal workers, who accepted buyout offers, would no longer be counted as employed by the federal government. Goldman Sachs last estimate was that October would show a 50,000 job loss. Goldman Sachs outlines what to expect from the delayed September U.S. jobs report - Investing.com
Obamacare tax credits look likely to expire as Trump rules out an extension The Democrats had correctly concluded that republicans were never going to extend the Obamacare premium support payments. About 24 million Americans will see their out-of-pocket costs increase by over 100% on average, which will negatively impact their spending on discretionary purchases. ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire | KFF Many will have no choice but to drop their health insurance.
Donald Trump Issues $3-Trillion Warning Over Supreme Court Tariffs Decision - Newsweek Trump's estimate was raised from $2 trillion a few days earlier. The total tariff revenue collected in the 2025 fiscal year, ending on 9/30/25, was $195 billion. The tariff revenue collected in the 2024 fiscal year from tariffs was $77 billion when Biden was still President. Tariff Revenue Soars in FY 2025 Amid Legal Uncertainty-2025-10-27; Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit? | PIIE
Even if the Supreme Court concludes that Trump acted illegally in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which I am predicting as more probable than not, that decision will not require a refund for other tariffs legally imposed by Congress, who has the Article 1 constitutional power to impose tariffs, or Trump's sector specific tariff taxes (e.g. steel & aluminum) imposed under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps | Council on Foreign Relations The actual refund amount will probably be less than $120 billion, assuming the Supreme Court requires refunds after finding illegality and how quickly that decision is reached.
The standard Medicare Part B monthly premiums will rise 10% in 2026. 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles | CMS; Medicare Part B premiums will rise 10% in 2026, wiping away a third of Social Security’s COLA - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
Trump Admin Says ‘Everyone’ Will Have To Reapply for SNAP Benefits- Newsweek; Food stamps are back, but millions will soon lose benefits permanently - POLITICO
Architecture Billing Index (ABI) October 2025 Soft at 47.6.
Amazon cut thousands of engineers in its record layoffs, filings show
Trump backs Three Mile Island restart with $1 billion loan to Constellation
Calculated Risk: LA Ports - Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month One negative economic impact of the republican trade war is that U.S. companies have exported fewer products to international customers.
In a rambling slurred speech, Trump said that the Powell has "some real mental problems". FIERY Trump BLASTS Fed Chair Powell at Saudi Business Forum: 'I'D LOVE TO FIRE HIM' - YouTube Trump has called Powell a "fool", a "clown", a "knucklehead", a "major loser", a "nincompoop" and many other personal insults that are normal for Trump to make. In 2017, Trump appointed Powell to be the FED Chairman. Trump nominates Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman - CBS News; Trump Says Fed Chair that he appointed, Jerome Powell, Has 'Mental Problems'
Walmart (WMT) Q3 2026 earnings WMT raised its full fiscal year revenue guidance to +4.8% to 5.1% from 3.75% to 4.75%. Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $.62 vs. the consensus at $.6. Adjusted E.P.S. for the current fiscal year is expected to fall in the $2.58 to $2.63 range. WMT Stock Price
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Trump and His Orwellian Party:
Larry Ellison discussed axing CNN hosts with White House in takeover bid talks- The Guardian
'Punishable by DEATH': Trump Floats Execution for Democrats Trump accuses Democrats of 'seditious behavior, punishable by death,' for urging military to ignore illegal orders
The Democrats stated that soldiers have a duty to disobey illegal orders which is the law.
What the military oath of enlistment says about legal and illegal orders - ABC News; What US Law Says About Sedition and Troops Defying Illegal Orders - Newsweek ("The obligation to refuse to obey an illegal order is found in the Uniform Code of Military Justice.")
Trump: "This is really bad, and Dangerous to our Country. Their words cannot be allowed to stand. SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR FROM TRAITORS!!! LOCK THEM UP???"
Just in case that was not clear, the President of the United States posted the following messages:
He would if he could and that is something that I never thought that I would say about a U.S. President.
Mike Johnson defends Trump's 'sedition' attacks on Democrats - POLITICO Fox "News" pushed the story of sedition, apparently believing that there is a duty to follow unlawful orders provided they come from Trump and not a Democrat President.
Threatening to imprison or execute critics is nothing new for Trump. (e.g. Trump, Paul Gosar suggest Gen. Mark Milley deserves death). Milley was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appointed by Trump. Trump Appoints Gen. Mark Milley Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff Milley also warned voters prior to the election that Trump was a fascist and a dangerous threat. Trump's top general calls former president "fascist" and "dangerous" threat
As the 4 star Marine General John Kelly told voters before the 2024 election, Trump fits the definition of fascist and prefers the dictator approach. John Kelly says Trump fits 'fascist' definition, prefers 'dictator approach' - YouTube; John Kelly says Donald Trump fits ‘fascist’ definition and prefers ‘dictator approach’ Voters were familiar with General Kelly's warning that Trump, if re-elected, would rule as a dictator.
Trump calls to revoke ABC's license after question about Epstein Trump: "I think the broadcasting license should be taken away from ABC because your news is so fake."
GOP sends 'menacing texts' to voters ordering them to un-sign petition: report-Raw Story Trump demanded that the Missouri Republicans gerrymander a congressional district in Kansas City to prevent the voters from reelecting the Democrat incumbent. They dutifully complied with their Dear Leader's command. A petition started to circulate for a ballot measure, and was gaining momentum, that would have the effect of overruling the gerrymander unless approved by the voters.
In reversal, Trump says House Republicans should vote to release Epstein files - CBS News Trump: "As I said on Friday night aboard Air Force One to the Fake News Media, House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide, and it's time to move on from this Democrat Hoax perpetrated by Radical Left Lunatics in order to deflect from the Great Success of the Republican Party, including our recent Victory on the Democrat "Shutdown."" He did not make any such statement on Air Force One. If he had, it would have been reported at that time.
If he had nothing to hide, why did he so vigorously resist releasing the files? It simply makes no sense that he resisted so strongly because he had nothing to hide.
Senator Whitehouse asked Bondi a simple question. Were photos seized by the FBI of Trump with half naked young women (indeterminate ages). Michael Wolff claims that he was shown photos by Epstein who was storing photos in a safe. Listen to Bondi's response and ask yourself why she is refusing to answer the question: Sen. Whitehouse Asks Attorney General About Epstein Photos with President Trump and Young Women - YouTube She was transparent in her evasiveness. Why?
If no photos existed, she could have just said no.
If such photos exist of half naked young women and Trump, have not been lost or destroyed, and are produced as part of the Epstein files, will republicans accept what is shown? The answer is no. They will simply develop an elaborate fact free conspiracy that the "radical left lunatics", meaning the Democrats, planted the photos which were fake in order to embarrass the Chosen One. Look at everything that Trump has said and done for over a decade which they have already ignored or dismissed.
I suspect that some of the material has been "lost" or will simply not be produced by Pam Bondi who is not worthy of trust IMO. The passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act will not end the cover up, assuming there is something to cover up which is certainly implied by the strong opposition to producing the files.
Another motivation for Trump's change of heart is a realization that a significant number of House Republicans would vote for the release even if he threatened to punish them for voting in favor.
All but one House Republican voted to pass the Epstein Files Transparency Act,. while only 4 voted for the discharge petition that required them to vote. All were needed for the discharge petition to pass. One of those 4 was Marjorie Taylor Greene who resigned yesterday, with Trump saying she "went BAD", meaning she signed the discharge petition requiring a House vote on the Epstein bill. Marjorie Taylor Greene: Trump says 'Marjorie went BAD'
The Ghislaine Maxwell Emails - The Atlantic; Ghislaine Maxwell's prison emails show she is 'happier' at minimum-security Texas facility These articles summarize he perks that the Trump Administration granted to Maxwell after her interview with Trump's attorney Todd Blanche, who is merely masquerading as the Deputy AG.
Trump’s Toddler Response to the Epstein Saga - The Atlantic
I recall that the former Republican Senator from Tennessee Bob Corker was one of the few republicans who dared to criticize Donald. Bob Corker on the Future of the Republican Party - The Atlantic
In 2018 Corker noted that the GOP was becoming cultish. Senator Bob Corker: GOP ‘Becoming A Cultish Thing’ | NBC News - YouTube
Trump’s Attack on Thomas Massie Crosses a New Line - YouTube
Trump: "Did Thomas Massie, sometimes referred to as Rand Paul Jr., because of the fact that he always votes against the Republican Party, get married already??? Boy, that was quick! No wonder the Polls have him at less than an 8% chance of winning the Election Anyway, have a great life Thomas and (?). His wife will soon find out that she’s stuck with a LOSER!" Massie recently lost his wife having been married for 30 years. Trump attacked Massie since he was the co-sponsor of the bill requiring the release of the Epstein files.
Trump tells female reporter, ‘Quiet, piggy’ when asked about Epstein files - YouTube Trump pointed a finger at the reporter from Bloomberg, Catherine Lucey, and said "Quiet. Quiet, Piggy". Trump Told a Woman, ‘Quiet, Piggy,’ When She Asked Him About Epstein - The Atlantic;
White House Tries to Defend Donald Trump’s ‘Piggy’ Insult That is to be expected.
Trump has normalized a constant stream of juvenile personal insults as an appropriate response to fact based criticisms. His cult members imitate this approach to discourse.
Trump demanded that NBC fire Seth Meyers:
Trump is demanding again that Jimmy Kimmel be fired:
Kimmel's response to the previous message: Trump Calls for Jimmy Kimmel to Be Fired AGAIN, Threatens Members of Congress & Signs Epstein Bill - YouTube This is the opening monologue that triggered Trump: Trump Braces for Hurricane Epstein, Spews Nonsense & Elon Joins for Dinner with Saudi Crown Prince - YouTube
When you read Trump's messages, he confirms over and over again that he is a both an authoritarian demagogue and a malignant narcissist, conditions that are becoming increasingly aggravated by early stage dementia IMO.
Malignant Narcissist: How to Spot Them; ‘Trump is a malignant narcissist’ | Dr John Gartner - YouTube It is an easy diagnosis to make since Trump will persistently confirm the symptoms, frequently multiple times during a single day.
Trump claims Saudi crown prince 'knew nothing' about Jamal Khashoggi's murder despite CIA finding; Trump claims slain journalist Khashoggi was ‘extremely controversial,’ defends Saudi crown prince Trump criticized the murdered Khashoggi, a journalist who was critical of the Saudi rulers and who was cut up into pieces as punishment for his criticism. Jamal Khashoggi: US intelligence report finds Saudi Crown Prince responsible for approving operation that killed Washiington Post journalist
The Trump Administration’s Favorite Tool for Criminalizing Dissent - The Atlantic The overreach by the Trump's DOJ is through 18 U.S. Code § 111.
Immigration Agents Have Held More Than 170 Americans Against Their Will, ProPublica Finds — ProPublica Kristi Noem represented that there were none in her now routine Orwellian manner. Kristi Noem says no Americans have been detained in ICE sweeps. That’s false. - Poynter
The ‘Easy Way’ to Crush the Mainstream Media - The Atlantic
A Rolex, a gold bar, a trade deal and the ethics of presidential gifts : Consider This
Kash Patel Waived Polygraph Screening for Dan Bongino, Senior Staff — ProPublica; DOJ Watchdog: I Was Fired Over Bondi’s Thirst for Free Stuff
Trump administration takes steps to dismantle Education Department
Appeals court panel rejects Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ defamation lawsuit against CNN - POLITICO Two of the 3 judges on the panel were appointed by Trump who plans to appeal the dismissal. This particular lawsuit is based on the canard that he was only concerned about the integrity of the 2020 election when claiming that the election was stolen and attempting to cancel the state certified results and to disrupt the certification by Congress on January 6th. Even if the Court had not dismissed the defamation lawsuit as a matter of law, and the case was tried before a jury, Trump would have IMO a zero chance of winning.
Trump uses lawsuits and his Presidential powers, significantly enhanced by the 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices, to intimidate and silence critics. The only way to deal with Trump's abusive use of litigation is to never reward him with a settlement, which far too many companies have done, and to file malicious prosecution suits against Trump and his lawyers after winning a dismissal or a jury verdict. Malicious Prosecution | Westlaw
Grand jury investigating Trump allies over 'tainted' probes of White House critics - Alternet.org Does Trump know about this probe? I suspect that he will end it when he becomes aware.
US preparing subpoenas related to 2016 Russia election-interference intelligence, sources say | Reuters (11/6/25). Trump will not let this go. His recently appointed U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida, Jason Reding Quiñones, is leading the investigation into what Trump calls the Russia Hoax. Quinones claims that he is only interested in "impartial justice", a ridiculous contention IMO. The Grand Jury investigation is in the Ft. Pierce, Florida District Court where the compliant Aileen Cannon is the only sitting judge, just an example of what lawyers call forum shopping. DOJ subpoenas unlikely to yield new info on Russia probe pushed by Trump, sources say | Reuters (11/18/25); Hon. Aileen Cannon Wrote A Really Bad Decision
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Putin Peace Plan for Ukraine Endorsed by Trump:
Trump is giving Russia almost everything it wants with his Ukraine peace plan
Trump's Ukraine-Russia peace plan, in the full 28 points
GOP leaders slam Trump's Ukraine peace proposal It is Putin's plan endorsed by Trump.
Trump: Zelensky will "have to like the" plan and will "have to approve it".
The U.S. is now backing Russia's maximum demands.
America’s Ukraine Retreat Alarms Europe (w/ Mark Hertling) - YouTube
The Putin-Trump plan reportedly calls for Ukraine (1) to cede territory to Russia including areas controlled by the Ukrainian army, (2) to reduce its armed forces by 50%, (3) to abandon certain categories of weapons to defend itself from another Russian invasion; (4) to never join NATO or allow any NATO troops in Ukraine; and (5) to station its fighter jets in Poland.
The Putin plan endorsed by Trump requires that frozen Russian assets will be returned to Russia except for $100B that will be invested by the U.S. in Ukraine with 50% of the profits going to the U.S. from such projects. In addition, all sanctions will be lifted against Russia by all nations, with Russia being reintegrated into the world economy and allowed to rejoin the Group of 8.
Most of the text contains the maximum positions that Russia has insisted upon since 2022. Putin, Zelenskyy respond to Trump's peace plan - ABC News This is not Trump's peace plan but the one that Russia has been pushing for years that Trump has endorsed on behalf of the U.S.
If accepted by Ukraine, the Putin peace plan endorsed by Trump on behalf of the United States will lead to Ukraine being entirely absorbed into the Russian Federation, thereby giving Putin a victory that he did not win on the battlefield.
Ukraine receives no concessions from Russia other than an empty promise that Russia confirms Ukraine's sovereignty, whatever that means. Russia committed to respect the territorial integrity of all of Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, including all of the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia, which was a much stronger commitment that it violated when it seized Crimea in 2014, started a war in eastern Ukraine the same year, and invaded Ukraine for the purpose of conquest in February 2022.
Trump gave Ukraine an ultimatum to accept the Russian "peace" plan by Thanksgiving. Ukraine faces losing dignity or US support with Trump’s plan to end war, Zelensky says
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I am primarily a bond and T Bill investor now which is reflected in this snapshot of my allocations in my Fidelity account.
The bond allocation is defined by Fidelity to include T Bills, CDs, corporate and municipal bonds, and treasury notes. "Short term" is the sweep account MM fund.
My Vanguard taxable account is the most conservatively positioned of my 5 taxable accounts:
Short term reserves are in VMRXX.
I am adding to my stock allocation using a small ball shotgun approach where I invest $1,000 to $2,000 each week in net buying of beaten up dividend paying stocks. The purchases are generally 1 to 5 share lots, spread out over a number of stocks, with frequent averaging down.
What qualifies as a beaten up dividend paying stock. An answer is provided by this ugly looking chart:
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| CLX 5 Years as of 11/18/25 |
CLX did receive a boost from the pandemic.
Most of the purchases will be in the regional bank, pharma, equity REIT, consumer staples and packaged food sectors.
Most dividend yields will be in excess of 4%.
Most of the stocks purchased are in bear market patterns, at or near 52 week lows, have issues that may prove to be temporary, and are what I would call long term contrarian value stocks at their current prices.
I will require at least another 25% decline in the S&P 500 before increasing my weekly purchases into the $2,000 - $5,000 range.
A VIX spike over 30 will likely result in an expansion of the weekly purchase range to $2,000-$2,500 until the VIX returns to below 25 movement. I generally buy into volatility spikes.
1. Small Ball Common Stock Purchases:
A. Added to UNB - Bought 5 at $21.8:
Quote: Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB)
Cost: $109
UNB is a small bank holding company whose operating bank Union Bank, operates "throughout northern Vermont and New Hampshire. Union Bank operates 18 banking offices, three loan centers, and multiple ATMs throughout its geographical footprint." Some small businesses in those states are suffering from Canadian customer boycotts in response to Trump attempting to cripple the Canadian economy.
The weighted average diluted shares outstanding as of 9/30/25 was 4.599+M, up from 4.55+M as of 9/30/24. UNB has an ATM program and realized gross proceeds of $802K in the third quarter. The average sales price was $26.39. "During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Company issued 38,834 shares for aggregate gross sale proceeds of $1.1 million, at an average gross sale price of $27.86 per share, which yielded net proceeds to the Company of $801 thousand, after issuance costs, including sales commissions equal to 3% of gross sale proceeds", 10-Q at page 45
I view this bank as easily digestible by a larger bank wishing to expand into Vermont and New Hampshire or to increase their banking presence in those 2 states.
Investment Categories: Regional Bank Basket Strategy and Bond Substitute due to the dividend yield
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to UNB - Bought 5 at $22.5 (11/8/25 Post) UNB had released its third quarter earnings press release which I mentioned in that post. SEC Filed Press Release UNB's earnings press releases are totally inadequate in disclosing relevant financial metrics. The company does not disclose in them the E.P.S., NIM or any of the important financial performance ratios.
The 10-Q, filed a few weeks later, will contain the relevant financial metrics. 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 I discussed those in a comment published on 11/14/25.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.L. Eliminated UNB - Sold 10 at $29.31 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.2)
New Average cost per share: $23.15 (15 shares)
Reduced from $23.6.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ( $1.44 annually)
Yield at $23.15: 6.22%
Yield at $21.8: 6.61%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): Sourced from 10-Q
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| Page 30 |
E.P.S. $.75, up from $.29 in the 2024 third quarter.
The 2024 third quarter E.P.S. was negatively impacted by a balance sheet repositioning that resulted in a $1.3M loss, page 29. This involved selling low coupon owned securities at a loss and using the proceeds to buy higher yielding ones and/or to increase loans that have higher yields. This results in a higher NIM in future quarters.
NIM 3.03%, up from 2.71% (positive trend but the numbers are low)
Efficiency Ratio 70.15% (too high IMO)
NPA Ratio: .86%, up from .13% (significant negative trend but not yet concerning to me)
Coverage Ratio (allowance for credit losses to nonperforming loans): 64.66% (p.40) I prefer to have a coverage ratio over 100% when making a purchase.
Charge off ratio: .01% (excellent)
ROE: 19.11% (good IMO)
"Net interest income was $32.6 million, on a fully tax equivalent basis, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 compared to $28.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, an increase of $4.1 million, or 14.2%. The average volume of earning assets increased $91.2 million and the average yield on earning assets increased 33 bps to 5.10% compared to 4.77% for the comparison period. Average loans increased $109.1 million, or 10.3%, to $1.2 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. The increase in average loan volume and the increase of 25 bps in the average loan yield resulted in a $6.7 million increase in interest income on loans between periods. Interest income on loans increased $563 thousand and $445 thousand during the nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, respectively, due to recoveries of interest from the payoff of loans that had previously been in nonaccrual. This resulted in a 6 bps increase in the average loan yield for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024." (emphasis added, at page 31 10-Q)
Overall the report is a mixed bag of positives and negatives.
Goal: Harvest dividends and liquidate position for a 2+% annual gain.
Largest Gain to Date: Item #2 C. Sold 50 UNB at $24.56 (1/25/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $238.61) The stock can not be reasonably viewed as a long term hold IMO. The last stock split was in 2003. Union Bankshares, Inc. (UNB) Stock Split History | Seeking Alpha
UNB Average Annual Total Return 1/1/1995 -11/14/25: 6.6%
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
The 10 year annual average total return was then at 3.5%, with a starting price at $23.75 and $14.11 per share in reinvested dividends.
UNB Realized Gains to Date: $429.02.
B. Added to Falling Knife SLG - Bought 1 at $46.5; 1 at $45.6:
Quote: SL Green Realty Corp (SLG)
Cost: $92.1
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy, Bond Substitute, and Contrarian Long Term Value
Website: Homepage - SL Green
Properties - SL Green - NYC's Largest Commercial Landlord
New Average cost per share: $47.63 (6 shares)
Reduced from $52.2
Dividend: Monthly at $.2575 per share ($3.09 annually)
SLG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 6.49%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/31/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post. Item # 1.O. Restarted SLG as a Placeholder - Bought 2 at $50.2; 1 at $48.7 (11/15/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
SLG Realized Gains to Date: $1,421.74
C. Restarted FSTA - Bought 5 at $49.03:
Quote: Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF Overview
Cost: $245.12
Sponsor's website: FSTA - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF
Expense Ratio: .084%
Low cost way to participate in this sector.
Number of Holdings: 102
Holdings Weighted at .9% or higher as of 10/31/25:
This index includes several large retailers of consumer staples including WalMart, Costco, Target and Kroger.
Sysco, a food distributor, is also included.
Two of the companies, Kenvue and Kellanova, are in the process of being acquired.
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
FSTA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last 4 Quarterly Dividends per share: $1.123
Last Ex Dividend: 9/19/25 at $.276 per share
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar Page - Currently rated 4 stars
Performance has been poor over the past year. The total annual return through 11/18/25 was just .49%.
D. Added to NBXG - Bought 5 at $14.21:
Quote: Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund - Stock CEF
Cost: $71.05
My next purchase will likely be in the $13.7 - $14 range, probably a 10 share buy, provided I am given that opportunity.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to NBXG - Bought 5 at $14.76 - Fidelity Account (11/15/25 Post)
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 7/31/25
NBXG Portfolio | Morningstar (accessible to non-subscribers)
New Average cost per share: $14.82 (20 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 11/17/25 after add |
Reduced from $15.02.
Dividend: Monthly at $.12 per share ($1.44 annually)
NBXG Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
ROC Supported.
The only way to support the dividend is with capital gains. Most of the holdings pay no or minimal dividends.
Yield at $14.82: 9.72%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/17/25. I bought this last lot on the ex dividend day.
Data Date of 11/17/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $16.25
Closing Market Price: $$14.23
Discount: -12.43%
Average 3 year discount: -15.08%
Sourced: NBXG - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
E. Added to BRT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.3; 5 at $14.14:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Internally Managed Apartment REIT
Cost: $142.2
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Bond Substitute
Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT
BRT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
New Average cost per share this account: $14.88 (55 shares)
Reduced from $15.03.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last from from $.23 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will be reinvesting the dividend in this account effective for the next payment.
Yield at $14.88: 6.72%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/24/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post. Item # 1.F. Added to BRT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.72; 5 at $14.5 and Item I.G. Added to BRT in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $14.1 (11/15/25 Post); SEC Filing
F. Added to Falling Knife SW - Bought 2 at $33.95; 3 at $33.3; 2 at $32.95:
Cost: $233.7
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Website: Smurfit Westrock | A global leader in sustainable packaging
SW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $34.8 (12 shares)
Reduced from $36.78.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4308 per share ($1.723 annually)
SW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will be reinvesting the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price lowers my average cost per share.
Yield at New AC per share: 4.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/4/25 (owned 5 as of)
Last Earnings Report (9/30/25): I discussed this unfavorable report in a recent post: Item # 1.G. Started SW - Bought 2 at $38; 1 at $36.5; 1 at $36; 1 at $35.4 (11/8/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
G. Started CENTA as a Lottery Ticket - Bought 5 at $28.68; 2 at $28; 3 at $27.5:
Quote: Central Garden & Pet Co. Cl A (CENTA)
Cost: $281.91
Website: Central Garden & Pet | Home - Consumer & Professional Products
Our Family of Brands | Central Garden & Pet There are a number of lawn, pest and pet products. My initial reaction is that there are probably too many brands and some may not be profitable or barely so.
Of the brands listed, I recognized only Nylabone, a brand recognized by dog owners, and Pennington. Nylabone Dog Toys, Chews, Treats, & Edible Dental Chews Nylabone Introduces New Collection of Dog Chew Toys Made with REAL Chicken, Bison, Venison, Bacon, and Beef (11/18/25). I am curious about the market value of these products when sold to another company like General Mills that has been expanding into pet treats.
CENTA is the non-voting share class. Another listed stock has voting rights and are more expensive. Central Garden & Pet (CENT)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket based on a long history of unsatisfactory stock performance. The shares are reasonably priced IMO at or near $28.68 provided the analyst estimates for 2020-2027 are spot on. The Lotto category has a maximum out-of-pocket cost of no more than $1,000 + net realized gains from prior trades. This is my first purchase triggered by my chart analysis, the P/E and P.E.G. ratios based on analyst estimates, the cash position, and the Price/Sales Ratio. CENTA Key Metrics at Reuters (most of that data is under the "per share data" and "valuation" headings)
CENTA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/14/25, the average 2025 E.P.S. estimate was $2.3; at $2.74 in 2026 and at $2.94 in 2027.
5 Year CENTA Chart: Choppy Ongoing Bear Market Trend Central Garden & Pet - 18 Year Stock Price History | CENTA | MacroTrends The most recent high was over $40 in May 2024, close to the $43+ high price in May 2021. Bottoming prices have tended to be in the $26-$28 range. Using the 5 year chart, the choppy up and down channel range is mostly in the $28-$37 price range. The last strong uptrend started in 2015 summer near $8 and topped out near $32 in 2018.
Average cost per share: $28.19 (10 shares)
Dividend: None and none expected. This will severely restrain my dollar commitment.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/28/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Earnings are seasonal and occur in the 2nd and 3rd fiscal quarters.
Revenues/Diluted E.P.S. Last 4 fiscal quarters:
2024 4th Q/E 9/28/24: $669.489M/($.51) which included mostly non-cash charge of $29M; SEC Filed Press Release
2025 1st Fiscal Q/E 12/28/24: $618.02M/$.21
2025 2nd Fiscal Q/E 3/28/25: $833.537M/$.98
2025 3rd Fiscal Q/E 6/28/25: $960.913M/$1.52
An ongoing negative is year-over-year declines in net revenues and organic revenus.
In the Q/E 6/28/25, the company reported a 4% decline in revenues. Sales in the Pet Segment "were $493 million, a decrease of 3%, driven primarily by assortment rationalization and softer demand in durable pet products in the third quarter."
Net sales in the Garden Segment "were $468 million, a decrease of 4%, primarily due to the loss of two product lines in Central's third-party distribution business and a late spring negatively impacting some of the garden businesses."
E.P.S. = $1.52, up 28%
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.56, up 18%
SG&A expense "was $197 million, a decrease of 2% reflecting cost discipline across the organization. Due to lower net sales, SG&A as a percentage of net sales increased by 30 basis points to 20.5%."
Reconciliation:
Cash and Cash Equivalents: $713M, up $143M driven "by earnings and ongoing inventory reduction efforts over the last 12 months."
Long term debt at $1.191+B
10-Q at page 14
I have a favorable view of the coupons and maturity dates given that the SU debt is rated in junk territory: Ba3/BB. Fixed Income Fitch has a BB rating. Fitch Affirms Central Garden & Pet Company's IDR at 'BB'; Outlook Stable (1/21/25)
Company continued to forecast the 2025 fiscal E.P.S. at about $2.60.
Purchase Restriction: No more than 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. I will probably start out with a 2 lot purchase and then a 3 lot purchase, repeating that process until the price falls into a $24 - $25 range, when I will increase the purchases to 5 shares until I hit my maximum limit.
Maximum Position: 30 shares
My Current Consider to Eliminate or Pare: >$36
H. Added to Falling Knife CLX - Bought 1 at $102.9; 1 at $101.9; 1 at $100.2; 1 at $98.9:
Quote: Clorox Co. (CLX)
Cost: $403.6
CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Categories: Long term contrarian value/Bond Substitute with a flavor of Dividend Growth
New Average cost per share: $111.10 (16+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.24 per share ($4.96 annually)
CLX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will reinvest the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price reduces my average cost per share.
Yield at New AC per share: 4.46%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/28/26
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post Item # 1.M. Added to Falling Knife CLX - Bought 1 at $109.87; 1 at $106.8- Schwab Account (11/8/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. This is a risk mitigation strategy that recognizes that the company has issues, the price bottom is unknowable and is currently not discernible in a chart, an opinion that the stock is reasonably priced based on a 1 to 3 year time horizon, and significant downside momentum which may have stabilized late last week with the stock closing at $103.92 yesterday, up $3.85.
Maximum Position: I will continue buying 1 share lots until I hit 20, excluding shares purchased with dividends, and will then require something clear and concrete showing a persistent uptrend in earnings to buy more. Paring may occur starting when the highest cost lot can be sold profitably, part of my small ball trading strategy which is a risk mitigation technique that I use now.
I. Added to Lotto WEN - Bought 5 at $8.45; 5 at $8.25; 5 at $8.15:
Quote: Wendy's Co. (WEN)
Cost: $124.25
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Chart: Major Bear Market trend of unknowable duration.
WEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/18/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $.87; at $.89 in 2026 and at $.95 in 2027.
New average cost per share: $9.14 (75 shares)
Reduced from $9.35.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
I will be reinvesting the dividend starting with the next payment.
Cost: $103
5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern
The pattern revealed by this Chart is indicative of massive failures by the Board and management IMO. It is possible that the Stock Jocks may have overreacted a bit using a short term perspective (0-3 years)
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy; Placeholder, and Long Term Contrarian Value
New average cost per share: $56.2 (5 shares)
Reduced from $59.34.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.32 per share ($5.28 annually)
ARE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am expecting a dividend cut as discussed in my last post. A cut below $1 per share would signal to me that there are more cockroaches than the company disclosed in its last earnings report. Assuming no cut, which I view as highly unlikely, the yield at my AC is 9.4%.
I will reinvest the dividend.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed that report in my last post: Item # 1.L. Added to Placeholder ARE - Bought 1 at $54.42; 1 at $53.8 (11/15/25 Post); SEC Filed Supplemental
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: Currently at 5 shares. I am now at this maximum. To buy more, I will need to see materially positive news and no more material problems other than what was disclosed in the last report. This REIT needs to clean house IMO starting with the entire Board of Directors and senior management.
Owed ARE SU Bonds: 10
4 of the 4.3% Maturing on 1/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 3.8% Maturing on 4/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 3.95% Maturing on 1/15/27 (RI account), Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 4.5% Maturing on 7/30/29, Bond Page | FINRA.org. I may sell these 2.
Credit Rating on SU Debt: Baa1/BBB+
K. Added to BHB - Bought 5 at $29 in Schwab Account:
Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)
Cost: $145
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
BHB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Stocks, Item # 1.G. Started BHB in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $29.5 (11/1/25 Post)
New Average cost per share this account: $29.25 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share ($1.28 annually), last raised from $.30 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
BHB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $29.25: 4.376%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/20/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.D. Restarted BHB in Fidelity Account (10/24/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Stock Splits: I owned shares when there was a 3 for 2 stock split in May 2014 and another 3 for 2 split in March 2017. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) Stock Split History - Investing.com
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Eliminated BHB - Sold 20 at $24.93 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $169.35): Item # 3.B. Pared BHB - Sold 10 at $31.4 (1/2/23 Post)(profit snapshot: $103.99); Sold 10 at $30.69 and 5 at $30.74 (12/20/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $66.33); Item # 4.D. Pared BHB in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $30 (12/6/22)(profit snapshot = $79.15); Item # 3.E. Pared BHB in Fidelity Account - Sold 2 at $31.5 (12/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.43); Item # 1.I. Pared BHB-Sold 10 at $28.5 and 5 at $30.5-highest cost lots in Fidelity Taxable Account (3/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.46): Item # 3.A. Pared BHB-Sold 40 at $24.48-highest cost lots in Fidelity taxable account (12/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.17); Item # 3.B. Eliminated BHB-Sold 54+ Shares at $26.34 (5/18/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $131.1); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 BHB at $30.69-Used Commission Free Trade (7/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,718.56) ; Item # 1.A. Sold 50 BHB at $30.02 (5/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $666.96); Item #3.A. Sold 100 BHB at $29.55 (4/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $682.94) ; Item # 1. A. Sold 30 BHB at $29.42 (3/25/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.02); Sold 100 BHB Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/6/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $936.96)
L. Added to NSA - Bought 2 at $28.8; 3 at $28.5:
Quote: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)Cost: $143.1
NSA "owned
Storage REITs are in disfavor among investors who count and analysts. The primary reason IMO are no or minimal barriers that lead to oversupply that restrains rent increases and occupancy levels. My dollar exposure in this sector is immaterial to me. I will do some small ball buying for the dividend yields when they are significantly higher compared to T Bill yields and will seek to reduce risk through trading.
Website: National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $32.33 (55+ shares)
Reduced from $32.58.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 per share ($2.28 annually)
NSA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am reinvesting the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price reduces my average cost per share.
Yield at $32.33: 7.05%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 1.L. Added to NSA - Bought 1 at $29.19 (11/8/25 Post); SEC Filing
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared NSA in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $48.54 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.95); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in NSA - Sold 7 at $41.91 (Schwab Account) and Pared NSA in Fidelity Account Sold 5 at $53 (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $67.91)(mentioning in that report that I was not impressed with the 2024 second quarter earnings report, SEC Filing)
Purchase Restriction: No more than 5 share lots.
NSA Preferred Stocks: I have small ball positions in 2 NSA equity preferred stocks.
2. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auctions: 40
A. Bought 10 T Bills at the 11/17/25 Auction:
181 Day Bill
Matures on 5/21/26
Interest: $187.56
Investment Rate: 3.883%
B. Bought 10 T Bills at the 11/17/25 Auction:
91 Day Bill
Matures on 2/19/26
Interest: $95.93
Investment Rate: 3.885%
C. Bought 10 T Bills at the 11/19/25 Auction:
D. Bought 10 T Bills at the 11/20/25 Auction:
58 Day BillMatures on 1/20/26
Interest: $59.89
Investment Rate: 3.927%
3. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
I am slightly increasing my allocation to REIT equity preferred stocks to boost my income generation.
Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
A. Started PINEPRA - Bought 10 at $24.35:
Quote: PINE.PRA
Cost: $243.5
This is a newly issued equity preferred stock.
Issuer: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE)
I own the common shares, and last discussed a purchase here: Item # 1.A. Added to PINE - Bought 25 at $13.7 (11/1/25 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Coupon: 8%
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
REITs will generally pay no qualified dividends since they are pass through entities.
Optional Call: On or after 11/12/30 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends.
Stopper Clause:
| Page S-14 |
The first dividend will be payable on 12/31/25 and "will be a pro rata dividend from, and including, the original issue date to and including December 31, 2025 and will be in the amount of $0.2722 per share."
Yield at $24.35: 8.21%
Calculation: .08% coupon x. $25 par value = $2.00 annual dividend per share ÷ $24.35 total cost per share = 8.2136%
Fidelity would not allow me to buy this preferred stock for whatever unjustifiable reason that caused the firm to post this message:
B. Added 5 AHHPRA at $20.89 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: AHH-PA
Cost: $104.47
Issuer: Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. (AHH)
Website: Armada Hoffler
AHH SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25 and SEC Filed Supplemental
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added 10 AHHPRA at $21.65 in Fidelity Account (10/4/25 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to AHHPRA in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.78 (8/19/25 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 5 AHHPRA at $20.75-Fidelity Account (4/13/25 Post)
Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock and junior to all bonds
Prospectus (public offering price at $25 in June 2019)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.75%
Average cost per share this account: $21.57 (30 shares)
Yield at New AC: 7.76%
Calculation: .0675% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.6875 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.57 total cost per share = 7.7586
Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/25
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Quote: REXR-PC
Cost: $106.25
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.625%
New Average cost per share: $21.62 (15 shares)
Yield at $21.62: 6.53%
Calculation: .0565% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.4125 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.62 total cost per share = 6.5333%
Maturity: None, Potentially Perpetual
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 9/1/25 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends.
Stopper Clause: Standard
Dividends: Paid Quarterly and Cumulative
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual.
Last Elimination: Item # 7.A. Eliminated REXRPRC - Sold 30 at $22.45 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.23)
4. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
Exchange Traded: Trade on the stock exchange just like a common stock.
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds In this category, I include only exchange traded bonds where ownership is direct, the coupons are fixed and are not linked to performance of some other asset, and payments are classified as interest.
A. Added to EMP in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $21:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond due 2066 (EMP)
Cost: $210
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
EMP is another exchange traded first mortgage bond that I own in 3 taxable accounts and 2 RI accounts.
First Mortgage Bond
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Maturity: 10/1/2066
No call protection. Issuer has the optional right to call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Interest Rate Risk: High given the potentially long maturity. Interest rate risk is asymmetric in favor of the issuer who has the optional call right. If interest rates fall too far, the issuer will call the bond, but will allow the owner to keep the security when interest rates are rising and the price is falling.
Credit Risk: Rated at A2/A. Low IMO since the issuer is a regulated utility and the bond is a first lien on substantially all assets.
New Average cost per share this account: $21.54
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/19/25 after add |
Yield at $21.54: 5.69%
Calculation: .049% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 annual interest per share ÷ $21.54 total average cost per share = 5.6871%
Next Ex Interest Date: 12/31/25
Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Pared EMP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $21.62; 5 at $22.39+ (9/21/25 Post)(loss snapshot = $27.2); Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $207.92)-Item # 1.B. Bought 70 EMP at $21.76 (1/2/19 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 30 EMP at $24.44 (2/13/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.04)-Item # 4.A. Bought 30 EMP at $24.04-Used Commission Free Trade (5/28/18 Post); Items 2.A and B. Sold 50 EMP at $24.97 and 30 at $24.96 (9/21/17 Post)(profit snapshots $167.52); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 EMP at $24.47 (7/22/17 Post) (profit snapshot = $66.98)-Item # 2.B. Bought 50 EMP at $22.85 (5/17/17 Post)
Goal: The goal is simply to realize a total return in excess of the interest payments.
If longer term interest rates continue to trend down, with the 30 year treasury falling to below 3.5% or so, it is possible that the issuer will call this first mortgage bonds at the $25 par value and refinance with lower coupons.
I currently view that possibility as a very low probability. U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond Overview | MarketWatch
The 30 year treasury yield was below 2.6% starting on 1/3/22 through 4/5/22, knocked down by Q/E. 2022 Treasury Yield Curve-U.S. Department of the Treasury The yield occasionally went below 2% in 2021. 2021 Treasury Yield Curve - U.S. Department of the Treasury
EMP Trading Profits to Date: $437.7
Owned Entergy Mississippi $1,000 Par Value First Mortgage Bonds: 12
4 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM Maturing on 12/1/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Entergy Mississippi 2.85% FM Maturing on 8/1/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
7 Entergy Mississippi 5% FM Maturing on 9/1/33, Bond Page | FINRA.org (sold 2 earlier this year)
I prefer owning the $1K par value bonds that mature in less than 10 years since they have a much lower interest rate risk.
I have sold 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% FM maturing on 4/15/55. Item # 3.D. Sold 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% FM at 100.049 (8/5/25)(profit snapshot = $37.17) - Item # 3.E. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/55 at a Total Cost of 96.232 (5/30/25 Post)
5. Bitcoin ETFs:
I am buying 1 share lots in 2 bitcoin ETFs until I hit $2,000 in out-of-pocket purchases and will then stop. I am currently at $1,183.76 out-of-pocket.
I will only buy in 1 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
I view bitcoin and gold to be alternative currencies to the USD which has long term issues as a store of value.
A. Added to FBTC - Bought 1 at $85.67; 1 at $79.83:
Quote: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Overview
Cost: $166.5
Sponsor's website: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund
B. Added to IBIT - Bought 1 at $55.79; 1 at $52.02; 1 at $50.26; 1 at $47.39:
Quote: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Overview
Cost: $205.46
Sponsor's website: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | IBIT
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.




















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I discussed the 26 point Putin-Trump "peace" plan to end the Ukraine War in this post. I noted that the terms sounded like Russia had drafted the plan with Trump simply endorsing Putin's maximum demands.
ReplyDeleteThat is in fact what happened. Republican Senators were told by Marco Rubio that the plan was drafted by Russia, something that he now denies.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/rubio-trump-ukraine-peace-plan.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-senators-say-rubio-denied-that-ukraine-russia-peace-plan-originated-from-u-s/
There is no convincing proof that is admissible in a U.S. court that Russia has kompromat on Trump. However, as I have said in the past, Trump's actions and rhetoric are consistent with Russia having compromising information.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/22/trump-is-behaving-like-a-russian-asset/
https://www.amazon.com/American-Kompromat-Cultivated-Related-Treachery/dp/0593182537
++
One voting member of the Fed stated that she was not yet ready to vote for a rate cut.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/22/federal-reserve-collins-interest-rates.html
If a rate cut happens at the December meeting, which is now more probable than not, there will probably be several dissents.
Some Fed members may still have fresh in their minds underestimating inflation in the 2021-2022 time period by keeping both ZIRP and Q/E in place as inflation surged in 2021 and into the 2022 first quarter when annual CPI hit 8.5% through March 2022.
Look at the projections for PCE inflation made by the FED in December 2020:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20201216.htm
Projected PCE Inflation of 1.8% in 2021, 1.9% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.
Actual PCE inflation was at 4% in 2021; 6.5% percent in 2022 and 3.8% in 2024.
Inflationary pressures can not be ignored and certainly must not be juiced higher by expansionary monetary policies when the economy is still experiencing growth and an historically low unemployment rate.
A buildup of inflationary pressures was obvious in December 2020 and now.
Isn't the rate cut decision based on majority of fed members? Majority is leaning toward cutting.
DeleteThere's a dairy-free ice cream that I can't buy, because most of their flavors are out of stock according to them, because of ingredient supply chain problems. I don't know how that fits into the inflation picture.
Land: The CME FedWatch Tool currently has the odds of a 25 basis point cut at 86.4%. A majority of FED members need to vote for a change up or down. There will likely be a few dissents from a rate cut.
DeleteI am not in favor of one since the FED needs to be more concerned about inflation now than a stressed labor market. What does the FED due when the inflation report continue to show CPI and PCE inflation moving higher after it reduces the FF range to 3.5% -3.75%. The last CPI report was for September. There will be no report for October and the November report is delayed until after the FED meets.
The last PCE inflation report, the FED's preferred inflation measure, was for August.
"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 2.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago."
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2025
PCE Inflation Annual
August 2025 +2.7%
July 2025 +2.6%
June 2025 +2.6%
May 2025 +2.5%
In a few days, the Fed will be making a rate decision without adequate information on the inflation trend which is why it needs to postpone any rate cut. Preventing a return to problematic inflation is far more important than trying to improve the labor market, where unemployment is currently near an historically low number, through cutting the FF rate, particularly since the travails of the labor market are being caused by factors other than the level of short term interest rates.
Central Garden & Pet Co. Cl A (CENTA)
ReplyDelete$30.93 +$ 2.34 +8.18%
Last Updated: Nov 25, 2025 at 9:53 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/centa
The pop is due to a better than expected fiscal 4th quarter earnings report which is seasonally weak for this company.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887733/000088773325000035/q42025pressrelease.htm
Adjusted E.P.S. ($.09) with ($.2) consensus
Revenues: $678.178M with consensus at $657.2M
I discussed buying a few shares as a Lotto in Item # 1.G. of this post.
"MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/mit-study-finds-ai-can-already-replace-11point7percent-of-us-workforce.html
While in the long run that'll improve efficiency and the GDP.... The short-term shuffle of the workforce is going to be hard on the economy I would think.
DeleteIt also seems like an underestimate. I offered to help somebody edit research papers if she needed an extra warm body to help out. Her answer was that you have to be careful how you enter info into AI But if done right, it can easily quickly create what you need and circumvent a great many many hours of hard gathering of research info.
Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. (PLYM)
ReplyDelete$22.22 +$0.22 +0.98%
Last Updated: Nov 28, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/plym
As previously discussed, PLYM received an unsolicited and non-binding offer to be acquired by Sixth Street Partners for $24.1 per share in cash.
https://ir.plymouthreit.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/221/plymouth-industrial-reit-receives-unsolicited-non-binding
There was not much news until late October when PLYM announced that it had agreed to be acquired by other companies for $22 per share in cash.
https://ir.plymouthreit.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/223/plymouth-industrial-reit-announces-agreement-to-be-acquired
There was a "go shop" provision that last 30 days that allow PLYM to receive a competing offer but none was made and Sixth Street bowed out.
I own shares in 2 taxable accounts. The AC per share in my Schwab account is at $14.67 and at $14.97 in my Fidelity account.
PLYM paid its regular quarterly dividend of $.24 per share on 10/31/25. As to any future dividends, the company announced that it "will pay dividends as reasonably necessary for the Company to maintain its status as a real estate investment trust for tax purposes and to avoid incurring any entity level income or excise tax, but Plymouth may not pay any other dividends during the term of the Merger Agreement."
I have a copy of Stan Weinstein's book, secrets for profiting in boat and Bear markets. I found it useful when I read it 10 years ago. I never did finish the last couple chapters So I'm going to try for that now. He has a lot of ideas about the flow of bulls and bears. There's so many unusual circumstances happening. I'm wondering if his information will apply well now.
ReplyDeleteLand: Stan Weinstein is a good technical analyst. He has been around a very long time.
ReplyDeleteThis is a link to a recent video interview with him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0GpSPtmCuM
He discusses in that video bearish and bullish charts as well as those signaling a possible downside reversal in price.
Even stock investors who make decisions based primarily on fundamentals need to incorporate technical analysis in their investment decisions.
Since I am primarily a bond and T Bill investor now, stock trading is not that material to me.
Thanks for the video! Since I still have a little while to go of buying stocks, it's interesting to see the technical analysis.
ReplyDeleteLand: Weinstein is basically a momentum trader. The focus is buy stocks in breakout patterns such as unfilled higher gaps. Then the trader looks for sell signals like a double top pattern.
Deletehttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-top-and-bottom.asp
There is zero fundamental analysis.
I will frequently buy stocks that are in bear markets with awful looking charts. That would be anathema to a technical analyst like Weinstein. The awful looking stock will show an historically low price that may be attractive over the intermediate term based on a fundamental analysis particularly when supported by a high dividend yield created by the smashed price.
An example of a stock that I recently bought that has an extremely bearish chart with a recent unfilled downside gaps is ARE, but I have limited my risk to just 5 shares.
See chart in Item I.J.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/11/ahhpra-are-bhb-brt-centa-clx-emp-fbtc.html
You've sold me on the importance of managing inflation at this juncture.
ReplyDeleteIn particular, the economy isn't slowing or showing more job losses, because of the fed rate.
I guess we'll know in a few days which way the Fed decides to go.
ARE sure it's in a bear. The div rate is enticing. Too risky for me with a probable rate cut. But will be interesting to see where it goes.
ReplyDeleteLand: ARE announced today that it had cut is quarterly dividend from $1.32 to $.72.
Deletehttps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alexandria-real-estate-equities-inc-declares-cash-dividend-of-0-72-per-common-share-for-4q25--a-decrease-of-0-60--or-45-compared-to-3q25--302630962.html
I will stay with my 5 share position even though I previously mentioned that a cut below $1 would indicate more cockroaches running around in the dark than previously disclosed in that last report.
The stock will remain under selling pressure.
The stock topped out in January 2022 near $223 and is currently trading just above $51:
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.
$51.29 -$2.54 -4.72%
Last Updated: Dec 3, 2025 at 9:55 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/are
Longer term, my opinion is that the stock is undervalued based on P/AFFO.