Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Inflow Small Ball Common Stock Buys: $1,922.17
With interest rates moving back down, I am adding to beaten up dividend paying stocks. Most of the purchases are in the equity REIT sector where I am averaging down in small lots. I am also buying regional bank, BDC and drug stocks when the yields are over 5%.
Outflow Stock/Stock Fund Sales: $915.67
I am not likely to sell more stock mutual fund shares this year, though I will be do some selling in stock CEFs where the discount to net asset value per share had declined below the 3 year average.
Realized Gains Stock/Stock Fund Sales: $274.11
Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,006.5
Outflow Corporate Bonds Sold (7): $7,060.17 in principal amount
I am slightly lowering my interest rate risk by selling some recently purchased corporate bonds maturing after 2032, including 1 that had a 2055 maturity.
Realized Corporate Bond "Profit": $155.07
Inflow Corporate Bonds Bought (2): $1,950.64 in principal amount
Net Outflow Corporate Bonds Bought/Sold: $5,109.53 in principal amount.
Inflow Treasury Bills Bought at Auction: $25,000 in principal amount
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BLS July Jobs Report:
July 2025 may be the last jobs report that is not created by Trump. Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics Erika McEntarfer after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets; PolitiFact | Trump’s baseless ‘manipulated’ data claim in firing BLS chief Erika McEntarfer follows long history Trump's message to all federal employees is clear. Give me the numbers that I want or you will be fired.
Frequent rage attacks can be a symptom of dementia in the elderly.
McEntarfer's predecessor William Beach, who was appointed by Trump,said her firing was "groundless" and she would not even see the data compiled by BLS staffers until the result was "locked in". White House Doubles Down on Baseless “Rigged” Claims About Poor Jobs Data
In Trump's America, it is not necessary for Trump to present any evidence to justify his claim that the data is rigged and biased against him. Conclusory statements, without any factual support provided, are sufficient in Trump's America.
What Trump has said about previous job reports - YouTube
Investors will have no faith in the government's data after Trump places his own people in the BLS. We already know what that means: Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Howard Lutnick, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel, Dan Bongino, Peter Navarro, Kevin Hassett, and Linda McMahon, all described by Trump, the primary creator of Fake News in the world today IMO, as competent and knowledgeable people - the cream of the crop, the best of the best, at least in Trump's America.
Hassett says Trump ‘wants his own people’ at the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing commissioner Of course Trump wants to appoint someone who will provide the data that he wants.
The BLS is in charge of the CPI reports as well.
The republican tariff taxes will significantly increase the stagflation odds as would the FED cutting the federal funds rate when inflation is moving higher as demanded by Trump. Marc Zandi recently made the correct observation that the FED must not cut the FF rate when inflation is rising. The Fed can't cut rates as inflation is moving higher, says Moody's Mark Zandi - YouTube
While the 73K in new jobs was weak, the scary part of the report was that both the May and June numbers were revised down by a combined 258,000. The May new jobs number was revised to just 19,000 and June to another barely positive 14,000. To the extent there were new jobs in July, and not revised later into negative territory, those jobs were concentrated in one industry - healthcare (+55,000). Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M07 Results
Trump made this claim in a recent "Truth" Social message that confirms once again that he is in Sean Hannity's words “batshit crazy”: "The Economy is BOOMING under ‘TRUMP’ despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting ‘Kamala’ elected – How did that work out? Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should also be put ‘out to pasture." (emphasis added)
By no objective measure is the U.S. economy BOOMING as Trump claimed.
As to his other false claim, all but one of the FED voting members of the Federal Reserve approved of the .5% rate cut in September 2024 as inflation had moderated from peak levels in 2023. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (9/18/24). The dissenting member, a Trump appointee, wanted at . 25% cut. Other Trump appointees made during his first term supported the .5% cut.
There was no other rate cut before the election contrary to Trump's false representation. The election was held on 11/5/25 and the FED cut the rate by .25% on 11/7/25. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (11/7/2024) And, contrary to Trump's claim, the second cut was not "substantial". It is not unusual to find 3 or 4 false statement in one Trump sentence.
July ISM Manufacturing Report PMI was reported at 48%. Any number below 50 indicates an ongoing contraction. The new orders, employment and export components were in contraction territory as well. Employment fell to 43.4% from 45% in June. Prices were expanding and reported at 64.8%. Those numbers describe an ongoing stagflation.
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PCE Inflation June 2025:
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures
Month-to-Month PCE and Core PCE Inflation: .3%
Annual PCE Inflation: 2.6%, up from 2.3%
Annual Core PCE Inflation: 2.8%, up from 2.7%
May 2025 Report: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
I suspect that Trump will soon be firing employees of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis when the Personal Income and Outlays monthly reports show a steady rise in PCE Inflation.
Electricity Prices Are Soaring Under Donald Trump - Newsweek
ADP reported that private employers added 104,000 jobs in July. The prior June estimate was revised from -33,000 to -23,000. ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 104,000 Jobs in July; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%
July Fed meeting: Here's what changed in the new statement
Senator Josh Hawley (R) introduces tariff rebate checks bill after Trump suggestion Why is a rebate check even necessary if consumers do not pay the republican tariff taxes in TrumpWorld? The rebate checks in this republican bill would be $600 per adult and dependent child and would increase if tariff revenues exceed projections. An annual $2,400 stimulus check for a family of four would reimburse most of those families for increased prices caused by the republican tariff taxes except for high cost items like a new car or house.
State of U.S. Tariffs: July 28, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale (estimated republican tariff taxes paid by the average U.S. household estimated at $2,400 in 2025).
The rebates under Hawley's bill would be reduced for joint filers with adjusted gross income of above $150,000 and single filers above $75,000.
I would anticipate that tariff rebate checks would simply magnify the inflationary impact of the republican tariff taxes while substantially reducing the tariff revenues collected. When justifying the BBB bill, particularly the new tax cuts, the republicans said they would use those revenues to reduce the budget deficits and argued that the CBO estimate that this legislation would add $3.4 trillion to the debt was too high given what they anticipated from the republican tariff taxes.
Trump suspends de minimis exemption for low-value imports - CBS News
Mortgage demand drops to lowest level since May
Ford Motor (F) earnings Q2 2025 Ford's new 2025 outlook includes a $2 billion tariff hit.
Apple Expects $1.1 Billion Hit From Tariffs This Quarter, CEO Tim Cook Says
EPA seeks to repeal finding that carbon dioxide emissions threaten public health
OPEC+ makes another large oil output hike in market share push (8/3/25)
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Copper Tariffs:
Trump issued an Executive Order that exempted raw copper, copper ores, concentrates or scraps from from the 50% republican copper tariff tax.
The republican 50% tariff tax will be levied on "semi-finished copper products (such as copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets, and tubes) and copper-intensive derivative products (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components), effective August 1."
The 50% copper tariff tax will also apply to imports of "copper-intensive derivative products (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components), effective August 1." Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Address the Threat to National Security from Imports of Copper – The White House
Trump also mandated by Executive Order how much copper input materials, "(such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, and anodes)" produced in the U.S. have to be sold in the U.S "starting at 25% in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028 and 40% in 2029." That mandate may result in companies being unable to sell those copper input materials due to the U.S. lacking adequate refining/smelter capacity.
What would republicans say if a Democrat President ordered private companies to refrain from selling a product outside the U.S. By what authority can Trump dictate to whom companies can sell. That part of his order will be challenged as well as the ultimate legal foundation relied upon by Trump to levy on his own initiative sector tariffs: Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962-Library of Congress
Section 232 requires a finding that the imports threaten to impair national security. Is there a national security issue arising from the U.S. importing refined copper from Mexico and Canada. Trump's claim is totally bogus, but the Republican Supreme Court Justices are loath to restrain the exercise of dictatorial powers by Trump. Just declare a threat to national security or a national emergency, and the President can do whatever he wants to do, even though there is no threat to national security from copper imports.
There are only 3 copper smelters operating in the U.S. and 1 copper recycling plant. Opposition to building a new shelter would be intense, likely resulting in environmental litigation and permitting opposition at the local government level.
A best case scenario would be for a new smelter to go into production in about 10 years from now, if ever.
The investment would be huge with no assurance that the next President will continue the 50% tariff taxes that provide the incentive to build, given the inflationary impact and the harm to users of copper, or even that copper prices will remain high enough to justify the investment in building a new smelter, let along all the costs and aggravation that would occur before the site can be cleared for the construction to begin. Copper prices cratered after Trump announced the exemptions. Copper - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News
When the democrats next control the House and Senate, with a Democrat President, the tariff authority granted to the President in all the laws passed by Congress will need to be taken back in a manner that requires Congress to vote on the tariffs, with no legerdemain on the meaning of a "day" which needs to be defined as no more than 24 hours, and to approve each and every one by a majority of both the House and Senate before the tariffs can go into effect. It is clear now that a President, particularly one who is exercising unrestrained dictatorial powers as Trump is doing, can not even arguably have the power to unilaterally impose tariffs that will have far reaching adverse impacts on the U.S. economy and multiple U.S. industries.
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Other Tariff News:
Trump imposed a 20% "reciprocal" tax on exports originating from companies located in Vietnam and a 40% transshipment tax. Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates – The White House
Trump announced new "reciprocal" tariff rates in an EO published on 7/28/25. The tariffs include a 40% transshipment tax. Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal – The White House
EU-US tariff deal not finished yet, say Europeans unhappy with Trump's terms -BBC
Trump to Swiss: Happy holidays! Now pay a 39 percent tariff. – POLITICO That is higher than the "liberation day" tariff which was 31%.
Trump threatens India with 'substantial' tariff hike for buying Russian oil This would be in addition to the 25% republican tariff tax. Trump says U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on India-NPR
Trump's authority to issue reciprocal tariff taxes is being challenged with the case currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit who heard oral arguments on 7/31/25. Appeals court judges voice skepticism about legal basis for Trump's sweeping tariffs - ABC News; Trump’s tariffs get frosty reception at federal appeals court - POLITICO Trump is relying upon the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, or IEEPA, as the legal authority to impose, without congressional approval, tariffs on all nations. Yet this Act does not even mention tariffs and has never been used by any prior President to impose tariffs.
If Congress had given Trump this authority to set permanent tariff rates on all countries using IEEPA, which it clearly did not do, it would be an unconstitutional delegation of the Congressional power in Article 1 of the Constitution to set tariff rates. I would add that any delegation to the President of a power reserved in Article 1 to Congress needs to be, at a minimum, an Act that specifically mentions tariffs.
The U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil, but Trump does not like the criminal charges brought against his friend and former President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro. Addressing Threats to The United States by the Government of Brazil – The White House; Trump's Brazil tariffs are more about political revenge: analysis
Our Dear Leader consequently declared that Brazil was a national security threat to the U.S. and a unique threat to the U.S. economy. Trump through an Executive Order imposed a 10% reciprocal tariff tax on exports from Brazil and an additional 40% tax on most exports from Brazil, excluding orange juice, some aircraft parts and a limited number of other products that will be subject to the 10% reciprocal tariff tax. It is my understanding that coffee exports from Brazil will be subject to the 50% republican tariff tax.
Trump imposed a 35% tariff on all exports from Canada other than products covered by the USMCA, except for Trump's carve out for non-U.S. manufactured content in automobiles which content is subject to the republican tariff tax in violation of the express terms of the USMCA signed by Trump in 2020. Trump decided to violate that trade treaty that he negotiated and signed soon after starting his second term. That agreement exempts all content from U.S. tariffs when 75% of the content is manufactured in Canada, Mexico and/or the U.S. What vehicle tariffs mean for global auto markets | S&P Global
It is my current understanding that potash (a fertilizer used by farmers) and energy exports from Canada are still subject to the 10% tariff imposed by Trump by fiat earlier this year. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Amends Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across our Northern Border – The White House Almost no fentanyl crosses the northern border. That is just a ruse. Steel and aluminum exports from Canada are still subject to a 50% republican tariff tax, as are copper exports that are not exempted.
Trump stated that no trade deal with Canada was possible after that nation decided to recognize a Palestinian State contrary to our Dear Leader's dictates:
Trump claims that he rules the world and many of his decisions and pronouncements are consistent with that belief: ‘I Run the Country and the World’ - The Atlantic (subscription publication); Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’; Trump says "I run the country and the world" in interview with The Atlantic - YouTube
Trump tariffs: Six things that could cost Americans more (7/31/25)
Trump announced a 90 day extension on talks with Mexico.
The republicans in Congress voted against voting on Trump's tariffs as required under the law relied upon by Trump. They accomplished that objective by redefining one day to mean the remainder of this year. GOP 'Changed The Definition Of What A Day Is To Protect Themselves From Voting On Tariffs - YouTube This is certainly consistent with what an Orwellian government would do, and the U.S. government is now Orwellian.
House Republicans again block vote on Trump’s tariffs- POLITICO Senate rejects resolution to stop tariffs in tie vote - Roll Call (Vance broke the tie); House GOP moves to prevent votes on rescinding Trump tariffs - ABC News.
Why do the republicans refuse to vote on Trump's tariff taxes? They do not want to be blamed for the adverse impacts, but that blame can not avoided by refusing to vote and allowing the tariffs to go into effect. All House and Senate Republicans who refused to vote share the same responsibility as Trump.
Economist explains why Trump's latest tariffs will backfire - YouTube Trump and the republican party have effectively ended the post WWII "free trade" era that conferred massive benefits on the U.S. economy and has restrained U.S. inflation during most of that era.
President Reagan's Radio Address on Free and Fair Trade on April 25, 1987 - YouTube
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Congressman Mike Collins (R) Misspells Home State of Georgia in Senate Campaign Ad Collins is a pure MAGA republican who hopes to win the republican senate nomination to face the incumbent democrat Jon Ossoff. Georgia was spelled as "Georiga" in the Collins campaign ad. When typing that spelling, a red line appeared notifying me that this was a misspelling just in case I had suffered brain death. Mike Collins (politician)-Wikipedia He is congressional representative from Georgia's 10th Congressional District, one of the many drawn to assure that no Democrat has a chance to win. In 11 counties, he won over 90% of the vote.
Little-noticed Medicaid change in Trump’s tax law could burden seniors with thousands in medical debt - MarketWatch The general idea is to bankrupt more poor people so that republican mega donors do not have to pay more in taxes.
MAGA laying the groundwork to make Ghislaine Maxwell into a victim - YouTube
Epstein victims blast Trump for Ghislaine Maxwell prison transfer
Laura Loomer gets West Point to drop top Biden cyber official
Corporation for Public Broadcasting will shut down after Trump funding cuts; Corporation for Public Broadcasting to shut down after public media loses federal funding-NPR The ostensible reason given by the republicans to defund Public Broadcasting and NPR was the alleged bias in their news reporting, a relatively small part of their operations. No examples of bias were provided by the republicans and none is needed in Trump's America supporting that claim or any other for that matter. Just state it as a conclusion without providing any evidentiary support and that suffices in Trump's America to make the statement true.
Maybe examples could be found of inaccurate reporting, but what upset the republicans is that accurate reporting interferes with the acceptance of false narratives advanced by Trump and other republican politicians. Most of the funding that the republicans eliminated went to PBS programs that were non-political, but ending federal government funding for those programs was necessary in order to get rid of the accurate news reporting. Targeting just the news reporting would probably have been unconstitutional.
Virginia Giuffre’s family responds after Trump says Epstein ‘stole’ young women from Mar-a-Lago spa - YouTube; Trump says he thinks Virginia Giuffre was one of Mar-a-Lago workers Epstein poached - YouTube
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1. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
I am averaging down in REIT stocks. None of the buys are material. I am increasing my dividend yield and lowering my average cost per share which I my objective.
A. Added 5 SAFE at $14.45; 5 at $14.2; 5 at $13.9:
Quote: Safehold Inc. (SAFE) - A REIT that owns ground leases
Cost: $212.75
Safehold Inc. 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
Safehold Inc. SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Website: Current Safehold Portfolio | Safehold
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $14.86 (40 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.177 per share ($.708 annually)
SAFE Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.86: 4.76%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned 15 as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to SAFE - Bought 5 at $15; 5 at $14.85 (7/22/25 Post)
Owned SAFE SU Bonds: I own 4 of the SAFE 5.65% SU bonds maturing on 1/15/35. Item # 4.E. Bought 2 Safehold Operating 5.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/35 at a Total Cost of 98.167 (6/12/25 Post);Item #5.F. (6/5/25 Post); Bond Page | FINRA.org; Bond Prospectus
Purchase Restriction: 5 to 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
B. Added to CHCT - Bought 5 at $16.5:
Quote: Community Healthcare Trust Inc. (CHCT) - Healthcare REIT
Cost: $82.5
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
CHCT is a REIT "that focuses on owning income-producing real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services". As of 6/30/25, CHCT had investments in 200 real estate properties totalling about 4.5M square feet.
CHCT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
I did not like the last earnings report that was released after this purchase.
I consequently sold a duplicate position that I had started in my Fidelity account, see Item #5.
I will continue adding to the position held in my Schwab account, but the purchases will be 1 to 5 share lots, with each share required to be at the lowest price in the chain. The previous purchase restriction was no more than 10 shares with each subsequent purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
New average cost per share: $17.31 (63 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4675 per share ($1.87 annually)
CHCT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 10.8%
The yield highlights the risk.
Next Ex Dividend: 8/8/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental (list of properties starts at page 16)
GAAP Loss to AFFO:
"During the three months ended June 30, 2025, the Company determined that the collectability of the remaining interest receivable balance and unreserved notes related to its geriatric behavioral hospital tenant were not reasonably assured. As such, the Company recorded a $1.7 million reserve on its interest receivable, resulting in a reduction of FFO and AFFO per diluted common share of $0.06 for the three months ended June 30, 2025".
The company also recorded a credit loss reserve on notes related to this tenant of approximately $8.7M. An $11M credit loss reserve for the notes receivable was taken in the 2024 second quarter. The company added back those credit loss reserves in its FFO and AFFO calculations viewing those charges as incidental to its business of leasing and owning real estate, see note 3 in the previous snapshot. I do not accept those adjustment since loaning money to a financially challenged tenant is an integral part IMO of leasing real estate.
I would also note that the Executive Vice President for Asset Management was terminated on 5/31/25.
An earlier release only mentioned that he had left the company. SEC Filing
Two Year Price Chart through 8/1/25:
This is what happens when a small REIT makes a big mistake in leasing and loaning money to a defaulting tenant. The breakdown on 7/31/24 was due to the second quarter earnings released after the market closed on 7/30/25 notifying investors of the problematic tenant:
Looking at a five year chart, the price went over $52 in April 2021.
Recent History This Account:
Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
Cost: $137.69
BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Patent Expirations:
Sourced from BMY SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report at page 7
Trump's pharmaceutical tariffs: Novartis, Roche could be most at risk Trump has threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on imported drugs. BMY is "relatively well positioned" based on their U.S. manufacturing facilities according to the TD Cowen analyst who is quoted in this article.
BMY Problems: BMY has had and will continue having major problems with patent expirations which is keeping the stock at a low P/E relative to the current non-GAAP E.P.S. The TTM P/E on non-GAAP E.P.S. will generally be below 10 as will the P/E using forward 12 month estimates.
BMY has a huge revenue hole to fill after its main drug, Revlimid, lost patent exclusivity. That drug was acquired through BMY's acquisition of Celgene.
Revlimid Annual Revenues:
2024: $5.773B
2023: $6.097B
2022: $9.878B
2021: $12.821B
Certain third parties generic companies have U.S. volume restraints that expire on 1/31/26 (Annual Report at page 52), so I would expect another revenue decline thereafter.
Another major drug, Sprycel, stated to face generic competition in the U.S. last September.
The current best selling drug Eliquis was subject to a Medicare negotiated price reduction that will take effect in 2026. Medicare costs lowered for 10 drugs, including diabetes prescriptions; Eliquis’s New Lower Direct-to-Consumer Price is Still Higher Than Medicare’s Negotiated Price | KFF (7/18/25) 2024 revenue for that drug in the U.S. was $13.333B.
The estimated "minimum" U.S. exclusivity for Opdivo is 2028, which is a major patent cliff. The date for Eliquis is also in 2028.
It remains to be seen how much of the revenue lost to generic competition can be replaced by new products but so far it does not look promising to me.
The stock price action reflects IMO a consensus investor opinion that new product revenues will fall short of the revenues lost to generic competition in the 2025-2029 time period. It is possible that the whole can be filled provided new compounds like Cobenfy are approved for multiple indications. The FDA approved Cobenfy for schizophrenia in September 2024. U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves Bristol Myers Squibb’s COBENFY™ (xanomeline and trospium chloride), a First-In-Class Muscarinic Agonist for the Treatment of Schizophrenia in Adults discussed at Bristol Myers Squibb: Schizophrenia drug Cobenfy could treat Alzheimer's ("JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott expects Cobenfy sales to reach about $5 billion by 2030, with a peak sales potential in the $10 billion range across multiple treatment uses". That assumes FDA approval for other indications)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Pared BMY - Sold 7 at $62.04 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.57)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.H. Bought 1 BMY at $51.71 (3/28/24 Post); Item # 1.E. Added to BMY - Bought 1 at $48.56; 1 at $48.32; 1 at $48.15 (2/9/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $52.03 (32+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.62 per share, last raised from $.60 effective for the 2025 first quarter.
BMY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Due to the recent price slide, I have turned dividend reinvestment back on.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/3/25 (owned 28+ as of)
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment based on valuation.
Last Earnings Report (6/30/25): This report was released after I bought the 2 share lot at $46.86. SEC Filed Press Release and Slide Presentation
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
Revenues: $12.269B, upf from $12.201B
GAAP E.P.S. $.64, down from $.83
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.46, down from $2.07
Both GAAP and Non-GAAP included the impacts of acquired IPRD which reduces earnings.
Reconciliation:
A major add back in the 2024 second quarter was a $2.416B in amortization of acquired intangible non-cash expense that was much lower in the 2025 second quarter at $830M. Those kind of non-cash expenses arise generally arise from acquisitions.
The consensus non-GAAP E.P.S.
Revenues "Growth" and Legacy Drugs:
2025 Guidance: Non-GAAP E.P.S. $6.35- $6.65 that includes an acquired IPRD $.57 charge related to a June 2025 agreement with BioNTech "for the global co-development and co-commercialization of BioNTech’s investigational bispecific antibody BNT327 across numerous solid tumor types. Under the agreement, BioNTech and BMS will work jointly to broaden and accelerate the development of this clinical candidate"
IPRD: In-Process Research and Development
Other Recent News: Bristol Myers Squibb - Bristol Myers Squibb and Bain Capital Create New Company Dedicated to Developing Innovative Immunology Therapies that Address the Unmet Medical Needs of Patients (7/28/25); Bristol Myers Squibb - BioNTech and Bristol Myers Squibb Announce Global Strategic Partnership to Co-Develop and Co-Commercialize Next-generation Bispecific Antibody Candidate BNT327 Broadly for Multiple Solid Tumor Types (6/2/25)
Last Eliminations: Item # 1.A. Eliminated BMY in Fidelty Account - Sold 14 at $74.64 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $206.75); Item # 2. Eliminated BMY in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15+ at $77.56 (5/5/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $279.11)
D. Initiated MDV - Bought 10 at $14.65; 5 at $14.45:
Quote: Modiv Industrial Inc. Cl C (MDV) - Industrial Manufacturing REIT
Cost: $219.75
This is a mini-cap REIT.
As of 3/31/25, MDV's "portfolio of approximately
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Average cost per share: $14.58 (15 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0975 per share ($1.17 annually)
MDV Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.58: 8.02%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/31/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenue: $11.793M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.01)
FFO per share: $.33
Reconciliation:
"Repurchased 275,000 shares of preferred stock YTD, representing 13.8% of total issued, at an average price of $23.74."
Preferred Stock Quote: Modiv Industrial Inc. 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock Quote (MDV.PRA)
"Executed a 10 year lease renewal with 3% annual escalations on our FujiFilm Diamtix property located in Santa Clara, California."
E. Added to OTF - Bought 10 at $15.2:
Quote: Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) - Externally Managed BDC
Cost: $152
This BDC started to trade on 6/12/25: Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. to Begin Trading on the New York Stock Exchange
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 33 and ends at page 81)
New Average cost per share: $15.44 (25 shares)
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually)
Special Dividends: The company has declared 5 special dividends of $.05 per share each, paid quarterly, starting in September 2025. Dividends-Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF)
Yield at $15.44: 9.067% (regular dividend only)
Last Regular Dividend Ex Date: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post Item # 1.C. Bought 10 OTF at $15.6; 10 at $15.4 (7/22/25 Post); 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
F. Added to WTBA - Bought 10 at $18.55; 5 at $18.2; 5 at 18:
Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA)
Cost: $366
WTBA is a mini-cap bank holding company, through its wholly owned operating subsidiary West Bank, "has six offices in the Des Moines, Iowa metropolitan area, one office in Coralville, Iowa, and four offices in Minnesota in the cities of Rochester, Owatonna, Mankato and St. Cloud."
Headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa
I thought the last earnings report deserved an increased dollar exposure. There are not many banks that have a zero percent non-performing assets to total assets and non-performing loans to total loans. Net interest margin remains low but is increasing Y-O-Y.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Restarted WTBA - Bought 5 at $18.4 - Schwab Account (4/18/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.N. Eliminated WTBA - Sold 10 at $23.85 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $71.51)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $18.34 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2022 first quarter.
WTBA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $18.34: 5.45%
Next Ex Dividend: 8/6/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Slide Presentation
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
E.P.S. = $.47, up from $.31
NIM TE: 2.27%, up from 1.86%, but down from 2.28% in the 2025 first quarter.
Efficiency Ratio: 56.45%, up from 56.47%
NPA Ratio: Zero, unchanged
NPL Ratio: Zero
Charge Offs: $13,000
ROE: 13.65%, down from 13.84%
Loans to Total Deposits: 87.45%
Owned Securities as of 6/30/25: Poor Interest Rate Risk Management IMO
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 12
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.E. Eliminated WTBA - Sold 20+ at $20.52 (1/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $86.46); Item # 7.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in WTBA - Sold 25+ at $17.72 (11/11/23 Post)(profit snapshot $49.83); Item 1.K. Eliminated WTBA in Vanguard Account-Sold 5 at $21.4 and 20 at $21.2 (2/6/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $116.92); Item # 2.F. Pared WTBA-Sold .313 at $27.42 (5/28/21 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 100 WTBA at $23.12 (4/29/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,146.24)
Some profitable small trades were not discussed.
WTBA Realized Gains to Date: $1,532.54
G. Added 5 GOOD at $13.3; 5 at $13.12 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) - Externally Managed REIT
Cost: $132.08
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share this account: $14.04 (80 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.1: 8.51%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 1.G. Added to GOOD - Bought 10 at $14.12 - Schwab Account (7/15/25 Post);SEC Filed Press Release; 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25
The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 8/6/25 after the market closes.
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Sold 5 GOOD at $14.77 - Fidelity Account (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.06); Item # 3.O. Pared GOOD - Sold 3 at $16.87 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.74); Item # 2.E. Pared GOOD - Sold 5 at $15.31 A (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.2); Item # 2.B. Eliminated GOOD in my Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 16 at $12.26 (11/25/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.77); Item # 3.B. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account - Sold 26+ at $13.33 (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $128.61); Item # 2.B. Pared GOOD in Fidelity Account - Sold 8 at $16.69 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.77); Item # 3.F. Pared GOOD - Sold 2.197 shares at $20.8 and 2.352 shares at $20.84 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.77); Item 1.M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.17); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $165.33)
GOOD Realized Gains to Date: $442.99
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
H. Added 10 GOOD at $13 in Vanguard Taxable Account:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
See Item # 1.G. above
Average cost per share this account: $13.28 (20 shares)
Yield at $13.28: 9.036%
I. Added 5 FBRT at $10:
Cost: $50
Website: Franklin BSP Realty Trust
FBRT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Risk: High as reflected in the dividend yield. A dividend cut is possible for the reason discussed below.
I discussed this stock in my last post. The last substantive discussion can be found here: Item # 3.A. Started FBRT - Bought 10 at $10.8 (6/26/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $10.47 (25 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.355 per share ($1.42 annually), last raised from $.285 per share effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
Distributable Earnings (DE) for the first 6 months = $.53, down from $.76 for the first six months in 2024. A dividend cut is possible to align with the lower DE per share. The current quarterly rate is not covered by DE. Based on the current run rate, a quarterly dividend of $.25 would be covered by DE for the 2025 first half. A dividend cut to $.25 would decrease my yield to 9.55% from 13.56%.
Yield at New AC: 13.56% assuming no dividend cut.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): This report was released after the close on the day that I bought this 5 share lot.
Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2025 Results and 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25
GAAP Net Income: $24.4M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.19
Distributable Earnings Per Share: $.27, down from $.35 in the 2024 second quarter.
99.1% of loans are senior mortgage loans (74% of loans are collateralized by multifamily properties and 2.9% by office properties)
88.1% of the loans are at floating rates.
Book value per share: $14.82
Company ended the quarter with 10 foreclosed real estate properties totaling 246.2M.
"On July 1, 2025, the Company completed the previously announced acquisition of NewPoint Holdings JV LLC for a total consideration of $428.2 million. The consideration was comprised of $337.3 million in cash (which amount remains subject to possible post-closing adjustment) and 8,385,951 Class A Units of FBRT OP LLC, a consolidated subsidiary of Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. NewPoint Holdings JV LLC historical financial statements were filed on July 30, 2025."
Credit risk assessment made by FBRT of loans:
Real Estate Securities Held for Sale:
10-Q at page 17
Owned Real Estate:
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Next purchase, nor more than 5 shares, will have to be below $9.5 based on my evaluation of the dividend sustainability. I may raise that consider to purchase price with subsequent earnings reports showing a significant narrowing of the spread between the DE and the quarterly dividend.
J. Added to BRT - Bought 5 at $14.8; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14.3:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Internally Managed Apartment REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT
Average cost per share: $15.15 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.15 AC = 6.6%
Last Ex Dividend:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filing
Revenues: $11.709M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.12)
NAREIT Defined FFO per share: $.3
Adjusted FFO per share: $.39
The AFFO number is not as defined by NAREIT since no deduction is made from FFO for maintenance expenditures, a major recurring expense for apartment owners
GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation:
 |
| In Thousands of Dollars |
 |
| Per Share |
BRT does provide numbers for recurring capital expenditures, defined as " estimate of expenditures incurred at the property to maintain the property's existing operations - it excludes revenue enhancing projects." I would refer to those cash expenses as maintenance.
BRT share of maintenance expenses: $1.334M
 |
| Page 12 |
To arrive at a NAREIT defined AFFO, I substrated that number from the $7.388M in AFFO provided by BRT to arrive at $6.054. I then divided that number by the share count of $17.987092M arriving at a funds available for distribution per share of $.337 per share, rounded up. The FAD per share number comfortably exceeds the dividend in the first quarter.
"Repurchased 78,724 shares during the first quarter 2025 at a weighted average price of $17.55, and subsequent to March 31, 2025, the Company repurchased 63,356 shares at a weighted average price of $15.84."
"As of April 14, 2025, the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $8,752,000 in BRT shares."
K. Added 5 NWBI at $11.79:
Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)
Cost: $58.95
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to NWBI - Bought 5 at $11.2; 5 at $10.9 (4/13/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated NWBI - Sold 20 at $15.05 (11/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.6)
Recent News: Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Completes Acquisition of Penns Woods Bancorp, Inc. (7/28/25)("The combination with Penns Woods enhances Northwest's Pennsylvania banking presence with the addition of 21 branch locations across North Central and Northeastern Pennsylvania after the consolidation. With the closing of the merger, Northwest now operates 151 financial centers across Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, and Indiana.")
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report NWBI, a bank holding company, owns Northwest Bank that had "141 community-banking locations throughout its market area in Pennsylvania, western New York, eastern Ohio, and Indiana" as of 12/31/24. (page 2)
NWBI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Average cost per share: $12.07 (36 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
NWBI Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $12.07: 6.628%
Next Ex Dividend: 8/8/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
E.P.S. = $.26, unchanged
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.3, up from $.27
Reconciliation GAAP to Non-GAAP:
The add back is probably related to the Penns Woods Bancorp. acquisition.
NIM: 3.56%, up from 3.2%. The uptrend is a positive.
GAAP Efficiency Ratio: 64.86%
Non-GAAP Efficiency Ratio: 60.42%, down from 65.2% (down is better for this ratio) Still too high IMO.
NPL Ratio: .91%, down from .92% but up from .53% in the 2025 first quarter.
NPA Ratio: .71%, down from .73%, but up from $.52% in the last quarter.
The NPL and NPA ratios are too high IMO based on an economy that has not yet entered a recession.
Coverage Ratio: 125.53% (allowance for credit losses to non-performing loans)
Charge off Ratio: .18%
ROE: 8.06%
ROTE: 10.78%
Tangible Book Value per share: $9.85, up from $9.2.
Owned Securities:
In the 2024 second quarter, NWBI repositioned its investment portfolio by selling $276M of its investment securities at a $28M after tax loss. Part of the proceeds were used to repay short term borrowings and $258M was used to purchase netting 420 basis points in a higher yield. NWBI expects to earn back the loss within 3 years. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24 This repositioning is having a positive impact on NIM.
Other Sell Discussions:
Item # 1 Sold 156+ NWBI at $12.52 (6/30/11 Post); Item # 2 Sold 50 NWBI at $12.5 (2/22/11 Post)
NWBI Realized Gains to Date: $293.51
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase has to lower my average cost per share and can not exceed 10 shares per purchase. These kind of restrictions are on all stock purchases as a risk mitigation strategy.
Goal: 2%+ annual realized gain on the shares plus the dividend. When I start off with a 6% or higher dividend yield, I am satisfied to harvest the dividend and to exit the position at a small gain.
L. Added to KRG - Bought 5 at $21.95 - Schwab Account:
Recent History:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Cost: $109.75
"As of June 30, 2025, the Company owned interests in 181 U.S. open-air shopping centers and mixed-use assets, comprising approximately 29.8 million square feet of gross leasable space." Those centers are primarily anchored by grocery stores.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Restarted KRG - Bought 5 at $22.5; 5 at $22.25 (6/18/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51 (10/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.8)
Average cost per share: $22.23 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)
KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $22.23: 4.858%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/25 (owned 10 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Revenue: $213.395M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.50
Core FFO per share: $.50, unchanged from the 2024 second quarter.
GAAP to Core FFO:
GAAP E.P.S. was inflated by a total realized gain of $103.022M from property sales. That amount is deducted from GAAP to arrive at FFO. Depreciation, a non-cash expense, is added back to GAAP net income.
Occupancy at 93.3%, "a 150-basis point decrease year-over-year, primarily driven by recent anchor bankruptcies."
"During the second quarter, KRG "entered into a JV with GIC with the purpose of co-investing in high-quality, open-air retail and mixed-use assets. The JV completed the acquisition of Legacy West (Dallas/Fort Worth MSA), an iconic mixed-use destination, for $785 million ($408 million at KRG’s share). As part of the acquisition, the JV assumed a $304 million mortgage ($158 million at KRG’s share) at a 3.8% coupon. The Company is the operating member of the JV, and under the terms of the arrangement, owns a 52.0% interest."
During the quarter, KRG "entered into a second JV with GIC by contributing three larger-format shopping centers in Texas and Florida. The three seed assets total approximately 921,000 square feet of owned GLA and include The Landing at Tradition (Port St. Lucie MSA), Denton Crossing (Dallas/Fort Worth MSA), and Parkway Towne Crossing (Dallas/Fort Worth MSA). The Company’s contribution to the JV generated gross proceeds of approximately $112.1 million while maintaining a 52.0% ownership interest. The Company is the operating member of the JV and will earn market-rate management fees." The realized gain recognized in the quarter includes a change in ownership of those seed properties transferred to the JV.
Owned Kite Realty LP SU Bonds: Citations are to the FINRA pages.
4 Kite Realty LP 4% Coupon Maturing on 10/1/26
2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/31, recently purchased and discussed at Item # 5.E. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/31 at a Total Cost of 98.6 (6/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.205%); Bond Prospectus
I had 6 Kite Realty Bonds mature on 3/15/25.
J. Reinitiated CNC - Bought 2 at $26.1 :
Quote: Centene Corp. (CNC)
Cost: $52.2
Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket
Website: Managed Care & Healthcare Solutions | Centene Corporation
CNC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
By reinitiation I am referring to an earlier purchase of 7 shares shortly before the second quarter earnings report, which was horrific, and then selling all shares at $28.1 as the stock inexplicably rallied in response to that report:
 |
| 7 Shares Sold 7/25/25 |
I have reset both my entry price and the number of shares bought in the new chain based on the disastrous earnings report after profitably selling shares.
As shown in the previous profit snapshot, my first entry price was a 5 share lot purchase at $28. I reset the new entry price and bought fewer shares. This trading technique is used regardless of the dollar amounts involved.
Why buy shares even as a Lotto? The largest category in the Lottery Ticket Basket are stocks that have already been beaten down, smashed to smithereens, but where I at least see a dim flickering light in the far horizon, hopefully not an illusion, that conditions may improve down the road. Maybe it will take months or a year or two to know one way or the other.
The problem faced by Centene and other health insurance companies involved in providing Medicare Advantage, Medicaid coverage in cooperation with states, health insurance offered through insurance exchanges and to employer groups is that medical costs have significantly increased and premium increases are lagging to recoup those costs. The cost problems were concentrated in the Obamacare policies and Medicaid. Another problem was that Centene saw Medicare and Medicaid memberships decline.
Management believes that conditions will improve over the 12 to 18 months as premiums are repriced higher.
Dividend: None and None Expected.
Last Earnings Report (6/30/25): SEC Filing
Revenues: $48.742B
GAAP E.P.S. = ($.51), down from $2.16
Non-GAAP E.P.S. ($.16), down from $2.42, DSEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24
Reconciliation:
A .Pared FMAGX - Sold 5 at $16.06:
Quote: Fidelity Magellan Fund Overview | MarketWatch
Proceeds: $80.3
I maintain small positions in several mutual funds where I will rarely buy or sell shares, and this is one of those. I will consider adding to them when there is a massive stock market meltdown. I started the FMAGX position in 2020. Selling shares in those funds is either non-existent or limited to small lots after a major stock market rally. This is my first sale of FMAGX shares.
Profit Snapshot: $22.76
Average cost per share: $11.51
 |
| Price as of 7/28/25 close |
The profit snapshot is based on the average cost per share which includes subsequent purchases and dividend reinvestments. While I am reinvesting the dividends, the last reinvestment was in December 2024
I was curious what my total return would be using FIFO accounting. The 5 shares sold were bought at $11.79 on 10/28/20:
5 Share Cost: $48.95
Cumulative Dividends on this lot: $4.7 per share (last ex date on 5/9/25)
FMAGX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Total Dividends Received: $23.5
Proceeds received at $16.06 = $80.3
Total Return in Dollars: $103.8
Total Return as a % of Total Cost: 112.05%
SPY Total Return 10/23/20 through 7/28/25: 97.15%, DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
I do not spend much time in managing these small mutual fund positions. I will occasionally jettison an entire position based on poor relative performance compared to the appropriate benchmark.
While FMAGX has outperformed SPY during my ownership of the 5 shares sold, Morningstar has the fund underperforming its Morningstar category of large growth in 2022 (going down slightly more), 2023 and 2024.
FMAGX – Performance – Fidelity Magellan | Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars with a 5 Year Annual Average Total Return of 15.22% through 7/25/25.)
FMAGX – Portfolio – Fidelity Magellan | Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings. There is a high correlation with the holdings of QQQ except the weightings for each stock will differ. QQQ-Portfolio-Invesco QQQ Trust | Morningstar
B. Eliminated THQ - Sold 15+ at $17.17:
Quote: Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund Overview - CEF
Proceeds: $259.2
This leveraged CEF owns common stocks, convertible securities, and bonds. The fund will also write call options.
THQ SEC FilingsSEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 9/30/24 At page 15, note that the fund classified $.80 of the total annual dividend as return of capital, $.55 sourced from realized gains and $.54 from net investment income.
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 3/31/25
Leveraged: Yes, see page 21, Note 9, of the Semiannual Report linked above.
Sponsor's website: abrdn Healthcare Opportunities Fund
Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ)-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Tekla Healthcare Opportunities (THQ) Portfolio | Morningstar Lists top 23 holdings.
Profit Snapshot: $68.39 (7/25/25 sale only)
Last Discussed: Item # 3.O. Pared THQ - Sold 5 at $21.34 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.41)
Healthcare funds have taken major hits this year through their ownership of health insurance providers like UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) which is the second largest holding in THQ. Through 7/22/25, UNH had YTD return of -43.59%. The primary problem involves a rapid increase in claims with restraints on how quickly the insurers can adjust with premium increases. I do not have a position in UNH.
Subsequent to eliminating THQ, UNH issued another warning: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earnings report Q2 2025
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added to THQ in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $16.14; 10 at $15.95; 5 at $15.6 (10/28/23 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.18 per share
THQ Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
ROC Supported.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/24/25 (owned as of)
Data Date of 7/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.49
Closing Market Price: $17.14
Discount: 2%
Average 3 Year Discount: -7.81%
Sourced: THQ - CEF Connect
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2. Eliminated Duplicate Position in THQ - Sold 69+ at $18.87 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.4); Item # 1.H. Pared THQ in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $17.55 and 10 at $17.9 - Highest Cost Lots (5/23/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.34); Item # 1.B. Sold Remaining THQ-61+ Shares at $17.5 (9/1/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.49); Item # 2.A. Sold 53 THQ at $17.98(7/31/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.81); Item # 5 Sold 100 THQ at $17.59-Used Commission Free Trade(7/7/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.88 and contains 2017 profit snapshots =$555.56); Item # 2.C. Sold 232+ THQ at 17.59 (7/3/17 Post); Item # 2.D. Sold 118+ THQ at $18.7 in a Roth IRA Account (7/3/17 Post;); Item # 3. Sold 160+ THQ at $17.41 (6/5/17 Post) The total realized gain from selling 10 shares on 2/21/25 ($31.91), included in the profit snapshot above, was not discussed.
THQ Realized Gains to Date: $1,017.24, part of that gain resulted from ROC sourced dividends lowering my tax cost basis. The tax reportable gain would be higher than my profit snapshots which were taken when the security was sold and before the tax cost basis was lowered for the dividends paid in the year the shares were sold.
Current Position in Taxable Accounts: None
C. Pared PRPFX - Sold 5 at $68.4 - Schwab Account:
Quote Permanent Portfolio Investor Class Overview
Proceeds: $342
This mutual fund is unusual in that it will hold close to 25% of assets in gold and silver bullion.
I discussed this fund in a video that I published over a year ago: Permanent Portfolio - YouTube
Last Purchase Discussion: Item # 1.I. Added $100 to PRPFX at $47.98 (4/15/23. Post)
PRPFX-Morningstar (5 stars, classified as a moderate allocation fund). The rating is based on performance within that classification.
PRPFX – Portfolio Lists top 10 equity holdings. Click the "Others" tab to see the gold and silver bullion data. Click the "Bond" tab to see the top 13 bond holdings.
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/31/25 This report includes other mutual funds from the sponsor.
SEC Filing: Holdings as of 4/30/25
Gold and Silver Bullion as of 4/30/25:
Remaining Shares: 202+ with an average cost per share of $40.96
 |
| Price as of 7/30/25 close |
Unrealized Gain then at $5,560.04
Profit Snapshot: $137.19
I am using average cost per share for all mutual funds.
2025 Discussions: I have been paring this position this year. Item # 1.B. Sold 10 PRPFX at $68.09 (7/3/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $271.28); Item # 3.E. Pared PRPFX - Sold 10 at $67.16 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $261.97); Item # 1. Sold 10 of 237+ PRPFX at $66.01 (5/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $250.48)(In that post, I included snapshots of prior realized gains including $590.26 in 2015 which is also included below)
Profit Snapshot of earlier 2025 Sales:
 |
| 30 Shares +$783.73 |
PRPFX 2025 Realized Gains: $920.92
Total PRPFX Realized Gains: $1,820.02
Sell Discussion Prior to 2025: Item # 2.A. Sold 125+ PRPFX at $40.22 (8/7/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $308.84)
Largest Single Gain: Net of $590.26 in 2015
 |
| 251+ Shares |
Dividends: Paid annually. I have been taking the dividends in cash for a long time.
PRPFX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Dividends Paid 2020-2024: $6.06 per share
I took all of those dividends in cash.
D. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 2 at $14.13:
Quote: Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $28.3
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 31 and ends at page 66)
Profit Snapshot: $11.69
New Average cost per share this account: $6.41 (20+ shares)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.D. Added to CGBD in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $13.96 (7/3/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post, SEC Filing)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
CGBD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The regular dividend was last raised from $.37 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Special Dividends:
BDCs that rely heavily on floating rate loans based on spreads to short term rates had their loans repriced at higher coupons when the FED was in a rate hiking cycle. For CGBD, the increases in NII resulted in several special dividends starting in 2023.
2025 to date: $.05 per share paid in the first quarter.
2024 special dividends = $.27 per share (included $.05 that will go ex dividend on 12/31/24 with a 1/17/25 pay date)
2023 special dividends = $.28 per share (includes $.07 per share that went ex dividend on 12/28/23 with a 1/18/25 payment date)
Yield at $6.41: 24.96% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Net Asset value per share history:
12/31/22: $16.99
9/30/22: $17.16
12/31/21: $16.91
12/31/20: $15.39
12/31/19: $16.56
12/31/18: $18.12
6/30/17: $18.01
The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount. Prospectus CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share. After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): This report is scheduled for release after the market closes on 8/5.
Sell Discussions: Item # 3.C. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 9+ at 18.11 (11/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.93); Item # 1.C. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.06 (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $32); Item # 2.F. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 6 at $17.37 (9/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.63); Item #2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in Fidelity Account - Sold 2 at $16.78 (9/12/24)(profit snapshot = $14.69);; Item # 2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in CGBD - Sold 9 at $17.57 (Schwab Account) (5/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.8); Item # 2.C. Pared CGBD in Fidelity Account - Sold 7+ at $17.41 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.81); Item # 3.H. Eliminated CGBD in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $15.1 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.6); Item # 2.E. Pared CBGD in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 25+ at $14.46 (3/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.09)
CGBD Realized Gains to Date: $273.77 (Some trades were not discussed including all small ball trades made in RI accounts)
CGBD Position in Schwab Account: 45 shares with an average cost per share of $10.77.
E. Eliminated Placeholder Position in WHR - Sold 1 at $86.6:
Quote: Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)
Proceeds: $86.6
This elimination was in response to a dividend slash, a poor second quarter report and lowered guidance for 2025, mostly tariff related. Whirlpool Results, Outlook, and Dividend Hit by Consumer Sentiment and Tariffs My consider to restart as a Placeholder is at less than $70.
Website: Home, Kitchen & Laundry Appliances & Products | Whirlpool
WHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $9.2
Purchase Discussion: Item # 1.L. Bought 1 WHR as a Placeholder at $77.4 (4/18/25 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.90, slashed from $1.75 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment.
WHR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The primary reason for owning any shares was the quarterly dividend of $1.75 per share.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Ugly
GAAP E.P.S. $1.17, down from $3.96
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.34, down from $2.39
Free Cash Flow ($856M)
WHR slashed 2025 Earnings Guidance:
2025 Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Eliminated WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $92.09 (6/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.95, discussed 2025 1st Q report, SEC Filed Press Release); Item # 3.E. Pared WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $132.5 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $124.67; Item # 4.B. Eliminated WHR in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $120.1 (1/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.12)
My Consider to Restart with just a 1 Share Initial Purchase: <$75 with each subsequent 1 share purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. At $75 and an annual dividend of $3.6 per share, the yield would be 4.8%.
F. Sold 1 FSPTX at $40.13:
Quote: Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio Overview
Sponsor's website: FSPTX - Fidelity ® Select Technology Portfolio | Fidelity Investments (NTF at Fidelity)
Profit Snapshot: $21.74
Expense Ratio: .62%
101 Holding as of 6/30/25
I am not reinvesting the dividend. My last purchase was in January 2023.
I am using average cost per share. My AC remained unchanged at $18.39.
FSPTX Page at Morningstar - Currently rated 4 stars
FSPTX – Portfolio – Fidelity Select Technology | Morningstar Lists top 23 holdings, accessible by non-subscribers.
FSPTX – Performance – Fidelity Select Technology | Morningstar
G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in CHCT - S0ld 5 at $15.83:
Quote: Community Healthcare Trust Inc. (CHCT)
See Item # 1.B. above.
Proceeds: $79.14
Profit Snapshot: $3.14
3. Corporate Bonds- Purchases and Sells:
Principal Amount Received from Sales: $7,060.17 (7 bonds)
"Profit" Bond Sales: $155.07
Accrued Interest Received from Buyers: $131.9
Principal Amount Purchased Bonds: $1,950.64
Net Outflow Corporate Bonds Sold: $5,109.53
Fidelity Account-2025 Realized Market Discount YTD:
This is my "profit" in this account through 8/1/25 that will be taxed as interest income rather than as capital gains. Since I buy corporate bonds at a discount to par value, the realized market discount is an important component of interest income.
For reasons I do not yet understand, none of "profits" from recent corporate bond sales with maturities after 2030, which were sold within a few months after purchase, are classified as realized market discounts either by Vanguard or Fidelity. This would not impact my tax liability since a short term capital gain would be taxed at the same marginal rate as interest income.
I am reducing my corporate bond allocation by holding off reinvesting proceeds from maturing bonds and becoming a net seller of intermediate term corporate bonds, until I have a better feel whether inflation will cause a rise in yields. In July, my net sales of corporate bonds exceeded my purchases. I was buying about $10-$20K per week in corporate bonds prior to this change.
For example, in my Fidelity account, all of the redemption proceeds received on 8/1/25 will be parked in my sweep account:
The largest dollar "profit" in that grouping was the 4 Affiliated Managers SU bonds followed by the 2 Sherwin William bonds:
I also owned the Sherwin Williams and Public Service of New Mexico bonds in my IB Account:
Corporate Bond Interest Payments Received 8/1 in IB Account:
Early Bond Cal - Fidelity Account:
The AAP bond was bought on 4/4/25 at a total cost of $99.6.
A. Sold 2 Nextera Capital 5.25% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at 100.909:
Principal Amount Received: $2,016.18
Accrued Interest Received: $39.67
"Profit" Snapshot: $32.94
%20+$32.94%202034%20.png){kind=small}
Purchase Discussion: Item # 2.J. Bought 2 Nextera Capital 5.25% SU Maturing on 3/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.162 (4/18/25 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
I have no rational concerns about credit risk. I do have concerns about interest rate risk associated with bonds maturing after 2030.
I still own $13,000 in principal amount of corporate bonds that mature on 3/15/34:
The Duke Progress, Entergy Louisiana and Potomac Electric bonds are first mortgages. The others are SU bonds. This sale is a slight adjustment in my interest rate risk, basically trading one of my 3/15/34 maturities for the 1/20/27 maturity discussed below that has a higher credit risk but a much shorter duration.
B. Bought 2 Hercules Capital 3.375% SU Maturing on 1/20/27 at a Total Cost of 97.532 - IB Account:
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Issuer: Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) - An Externally Managed BDC
This is my first purchase of a Hercules $1,000 par value bond.
I have owned the common stock but do not currently own any shares.
I have owned 2 exchange traded HTGC bonds that have par values that have been called. One had a 7% coupon, called in 2017 (HTGZ). The other one had a 6.25% coupon and was called in 2019 (HTGX).
I did find some 2015 and 2017 trade snapshots for HTGZ and HTGX:
This BDC does have one $25 par value bond outstanding now, which I do not own and will not buy due to a price near par value, current yield near the coupon rate, and a maturity being too far in the future for me to buy given the interest rate and credit risks: Hercules Capital Inc. 6.25% Notes due 2033 (HCXY) I am picking up a 5.136% YTM with the purchase of the $1000 par value bond that matures on 1/20/27 (about 18 months from now)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa3
YTM at Total Cost: 5.136%
Current Yield at TC: 3.46%
Accrued Interest paid to Seller: $1.88. The first entire semiannual payment that I will be receive will be in 2026.
The taxation of the profit, which will be classified as interest income, is shifted to 2027, assuming no early call. I will not sell the bond unless I develop reasonable, fact based concerns that the issuer will go bankrupt prior the maturity date. I generally do not trade bonds maturing in less than 3 years.
Last Bond Offering (6/25): Prospectus for a $350M 6% SU maturing in 2030
C. Sold 2 Union Electric 5.2% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 4/1/34 at 101.62:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of the utility holding company Ameren Corp. (AEE)
Principal Amount Received: $2,030.4
Accrued Interest Received: $34.67
"Profit" Snapshot: $46.2
%20$46.2%20%20.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
D. Sold 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/55 at 100.049:
Issuer: Wholly owned owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).
Principal Amount Received: $999.49
Accrued Interest Received: $22.23
Profit Snapshot: $37.17
%20+$37.17%20.png)
Purchase Discussion: Item # 3.E. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/55 at a Total Cost of 96.232 (5/30/25 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
E. Sold 2 Southwestern Electric Power 5.3% SU Maturing on 4/1/33 at 100.705:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP)
Purchased discussion at Item # 3.F. Bought 2 Southwestern Electric Power 5.3% SU Maturing on 4/1/33 at a Total Cost of 98.677 - Vanguard Taxable Account (5/16/25 Post)
Proceeds at after $1 per bond commission.
Principal Received: $2,014.1
Accrued Interest Received: $35.33
"Profit": $38.76
%20+$38.76.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
I still own 2 Southwestern Electric Power SU bonds that mature on 10/1/2026. Those bonds will be held to maturity.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $25,000 in principal amount.
I have increased my purchase of treasury bills at auction until I can better assess the inflationary impacts of Trump's policies.
A. Bought 5 T Bills at the 7/30/25 Auction:
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119 Day Day Bill
Matures on 12/2/25
Interest: $69.58
Investment Rate: 4.329%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 7/31/25 Auction:
56 Day Bill
Matures on 9/30/25
Interest: $66.73
Investment Rate: 4.379%
C. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 8/4/25 Auction:
%202:5:26%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 2/5/26
Interest: $201.21
Investment Rate: 4.118%
This IR is factoring in 1 twenty five basis point cut, either in September or December, but no more IMO.
The primary reason that I am buying the 6 month bill is to shift income tax recognition into 2026.
5. Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated FBRTPRE in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $21.45:
Quote: Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. 7.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock (FBRT-PE)
Proceeds: $429
Issuer: Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. (FBRT)
I discussed FBRT in Item # 1.I. above.
Profit Snapshot: $43.08
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Added to FBRTPRE - Bought 2 at $18.32; 3 at $18.19 (10/28/23 Post)
Coupon: 7.5% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, non-qualified and cumulative
Stopper Clause: Standard, enforces preferred stockholders superior claim to cash compared only to common share stockholders.
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Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned as of)
Goal: Any profit + the dividends
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I have published a companion YouTube video for this post:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS6vtJhDt7w
Trump made a statement earlier today that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products soon, starting out with low taxes and then increasing them in one year or a year and half at the maximum to 150% and then 250%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-says-pharma-tariffs-could-eventually-reach-up-to-250percent.html
Trump also said new taxes on semiconductor chips would come as early as next week:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RIGL)
ReplyDelete$28.43 +4.30 +17.74%
Last Updated: Aug 6, 2025 at 10:17 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rigl
I own 20 shares as a Blackjack Hand in my Schwab account. My average cost per share is $11.58.
Investors are responding to the earnings report released today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034842/000110465925074163/tm2522417d2_ex99-1.htm
E.P.S. = $3.28 vs. $2.58 consensus according to Fidelity.
There was a reverse split of 1 for 10 on 6/27/24. Financial conditions have turned up since then.
My last discussion:
Item # 1.C. Bought 100 RIGL at $.9597:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/05/aep-argd-ava-bkh-brt-cvi-d-elc-evrg-fts.html
The purchase was made shortly before the 1 for 10 reverse split. Adjusting for that split, the price paid was at $9.6.
As noted in that post, prior round-trips netted a profit of $253.27.
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LGND)
ReplyDelete$142.40 +$7.25 +5.36%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lgnd
The price surge occurred during the last 5 minutes of trading on what is heavy volume for this stock. LGND reports second quarter results before the market opens tomorrow.
Last Discussed:
Item # 4.B. Pared LGND - Sold 1.642 Shares at $118.26:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/06/atlcp-eai-fbrt-fhn-gsbd-lgnd-nsa-ntst.html
I currently own 5 shares with an average cost per share at $72.96, having pared the position by selling my highest cost shares. The last buy discussion can be found in Item #1.B.:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/03/agr-bhb-cfg-eprprc-ffbc-lgnd-mbwm.html
I have the stock classified as a Lottery Ticket.
Genmab A/S ADR (GMAB)
ReplyDelete$22.54 + +$1.02 +4.77%
Last Updated: Aug 7, 2025 at 2:07 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gmab?mod=search_symbol
GMAB is another Lotto position primarily due to a lack of a dividend and my inability to assess the drug pipeline based on zero medical knowledge.
My most recent discussion was in a 7/29/25 post:
Item # 7.A. Pared GMAB - Sold 2 of 17 at $23.61 - Schwab Account:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/colb-doc-faln-fbrt-gmab-good-gty-hr-hzo.html
There are 2 recent developments.
The first is a successful phase 3 trial of epcoritamab in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) Follicular Lymphoma:
SEC Filed Press Release:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434265/000143426525000061/gmab_20250807xex99d1.htm
This drug is in multiple trials for different indications. GMAB has co-developed this drug with ABBV.
The drug has been approved in multiple countries including the U.S. and Europe for adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-Cell lymphoma after two or more lines of systemic therapy. The brand names depending on the territory are Epkinly and Tepkinly.
The second was the second quarter earnings report.
SEC Filed Press Release
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1434265/000143426525000063/gmab-20250630.htm
When looking at per share data for this ADR, it takes 10 ADRs to equal 1 ordinary share that is priced in Danish Krone. The company reports in USDs.
Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX)
ReplyDeleteAt close $35.56 +$3.68 +11.54%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vktx
VKTX has been one of my wildest lottos. The company has started its Phase 3 trial of a weight loss pill and benefited today by some investors being disappointed by the LLY weight loss trial results.
https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2025-06-25-Viking-Therapeutics-Announces-Initiation-of-Phase-3-Obesity-Clinical-Program-with-GLP-1-GIP-Agonist-VK2735
I started buying VKTX in the single digits and eliminated my remaining shares (30) at $22.84, recognizing a $551.7 profit:
Item # 1.A. https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/05/bbdc-botz-brkl-cfg-fhb-fhnpre-hbnc-jqc.html
That proved to be premature. With positive results in its subcutaneous weight loss drug and progress on its NASH drug trials, the stock thereafter rocketed to around $85 in the 2024 first quarter. I sold based on my belief that VKTX was way behind Lilly and Novo on the weight loss drug and Vikings candidate is still in trials.
The NASH compound is also still in trials and another company, Madrigal (MDGL), has received FDA approval for a competing product. The NASH compound is licensed from Ligand (LGND). So except for the pill version of the weight loss drug, Viking looked like a me too and late to market company back in 2023. I have not seen any recent information on the NASH compound after the company completed a Phase 2a trial late last year:
https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2024-11-19-Viking-Therapeutics-Presents-Results-from-Phase-2b-VOYAGE-Study-of-VK2809-in-Biopsy-Confirmed-NASH-MASH-at-the-75th-Liver-Meeting-R-2024
I currently own only 6 VKTX shares and last discussed purchases here:
Item # 2.C. Added to Lotto VKTX- Bought 2 at $33.62, 1 at $32.82, 1 at $32.65:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/01/arcc-asbprf-faln-flgb-fnlc-lgnd-pnnt.html
This is a form of entertainment for me.
NASH Drug Information:
https://vikingtherapeutics.com/pipeline/metabolic-disease-program/vk2809/
Weight Loss Drug Information:
https://vikingtherapeutics.com/pipeline/metabolic-disease-program/vk2735/
Viking Update 7/23/25:
https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2025-07-23-Viking-Therapeutics-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update
++
Another Lotto STKL rose 15.41% today closing at $5.99.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/stkl
This was in response to the earnings report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/351834/000106299325013727/exhibit99-1.htm
I will be discussing a 5 share small ball purchase at $5.2 in my next post.
As discussed in a recent post, this company had made a number of costly mistakes:
Item # 2.C. Restarted STKL as a Lottery Ticket - Bought 10 at $6:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/exg-fdus-hrunca-irm-kbwy-mga-ntst-pine.html
+++
I have for the time being finished selling corporate bonds maturing after 2032. All of those bonds were recent buys at discounts to par value and were sold at premiums. In my next post, I will discuss selling 20 of those bonds. This is a minor lightening up since I own close to 380 different corporate bonds.
My concern is interest rate risk. I will consider buying back some of them at lower prices.
I have been reading some history on President Nixon's effort to change the labor statistics at the BLS. Nixon is the best example of an authoritarian leaning U.S. President with dark conspiratorial thinking prior to Trump who is clearly far worse. Nixon pales in comparison.
ReplyDeleteNixon thought that the Jews at the BLS were out to get him, a history described in this Wikipedia article that is based on transcripts of the Nixon tapes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Jew_count
Longer quotes from Nixon can be found in this Atlantic article (subscription publication):
"Trump Just Did What Not Even Nixon Dared To"
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/08/trump-nixon-bls-commissioner-fired/683783/
Nixon stopped short of firing the BLS employee in charge of the jobs numbers, Harold Goldstein.
Here are a sampling of Nixon quotes from that Atlantic article:
Nixon yelling into the phone: "Give Goldstein, the goddamn kike, a polygraph!"
Nixon to Bob Haldeman: “I want a look at any sensitive areas around where Jews are involved, Bob. See, the Jews are all through the government, and we have got to get in those areas. We’ve got to get a man in charge who is not Jewish to control the Jewish. Do you understand?” Haldeman affirmed that he did. “The government is full of Jews,” Nixon continued. “Second, most Jews are disloyal.”
Ultimately Nixon did not try to fire the Jews at BLS who were protected by civil service, including Goldstein, and did not fire the labor secretary, James Hodgson, for refusing to give Goldstein a polygraph test. He did take away some of Goldstein's responsibilities and transferred one Jewish economist out of the BLS. Nor did Nixon immediately get rid of Goldstein's boss at BLS, the BLS Commissioner Geoffrey Moore, who was a political appointee. Nixon got rid of Moore after winning the 1972 election.
When a President with strong authoritarian tendencies wins reelection, there will be less restraint on implementing those tendencies, even when they involve a criminal act, a civil law violation, or a clear violation of the Constitution, and those kind of acts are far more likely to occur repeatedly when there is no effective restraint at all which is the case now including the removal as a practical matter of a criminal prosecution after leaving office by the 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices (Monarchists, not conservatives)
I was aware of the speculation that Nixon was antisemitic and that there was supposedly some things said on tape.
DeleteThis wouldn't be speculation. These are outright standard old fashioned libels and images of Jews.
I really don't get the bigotry. You have to be stupid to believe this stuff. I wouldn't say that Nixon was stupid. Or a number of other people who parrot the same stuff. 0.2% of the world and 2% of the US... should not seem like a threat. Just assign somebody else to audit and double check the numbers if you think somebody's doing a poor job.
Insightful description and information about the parallels with Nixon.
DeleteFrom the start of Trump, I wondered if this country would have fared better if Ford had not pardoned Nixon and the country had a chance to set formal precedent on what it thought of his many behaviors.
Nixon was at least reasonably effective and "decent" as a president on without pulling the country apart. Trump has long surpassed Nixon who was bad enough.
I have no answers on how to address it and stop it.
On antisemitism, in the last couple of weeks it feels like we've crossed the rubicon. The media has been substantially inaccurate. They've been using Hamas claims and narratives without questioning them. Recently the claim of starvation has touched decent people, even though it's a false claim. There's been photos of individual children, that are emaciated. However each time they have a pre-existing medical condition that is the cause. The photos and stories include parents and siblings who are well fed. If there was active starvation, it would be easy to find. There does appear to be the beginning of food insecurity. And the GHF is working to get the food to people without it going to Hamas (who should be the ones responsible for feeding their people.)
There's now a number of incidents where Jewish or Israeli individuals are being refused service, or attacked, or excluded from social activism for other causes (like LGBTQ), or being told that they won't get hired for a job.
It's a different feel than it's been for most the rest of my life. Facts don't matter. Logic doesn't matter.
What comes to mind is when there's a frenzy like this, it doesn't end well for the world. Not well for non-Jews even if Jews wind up okay.
The Trump stuff is as or more terrifying.
Hopefully everything will shift again for the better. Or hopefully I'm over thinking this.
Land: Trump is an authoritarian demagogue who rarely tells the truth and routinely engages in needless divisive rhetoric and actions.
DeleteDivisions always exist on hot button issues but Nixon did not go out of his way to magnify and create them, something that Trump does daily.
Nixon was not financially corrupt IMO. Trump has turned the Presidency into a cash machine for his personal enrichment.
The divisions that existed during Nixon's Presidency primarily involved ending the Vietnam War and then Watergate. There was also some weaponization of the DOJ under John Mitchell (disbarred and convicted of multiple felonies) to go after political enemies, but that is far worse now in Trump's second term. The federal criminal charges brought against Trump were justified based on the evidence.
The republican party had not gone off the deep end back then, a process that started around 2010. The GOP use to be a sane center right party that respected American values. Republican senators including Barry Goldwater told Nixon that he would be convicted of impeachment charges which led to his resignation. That would never happen in today's GOP with Trump.
I voted have for Republicans but will not vote for one now since Trump has infected the entire party.
With the social media and news outlets relied upon by Republicans, the real purveyors of Fake News, there are near endless sources of fact free and frequently preposterous conspiracy theories routinely are accepted as facts by republicans, a widespread Orwellian alternate reality created by Trump and his allies that is believed notwithstanding being easily proven false, and that a sizeable segment that the U.S. voting population is not tethered that much, if at all, to values necessary for the proper functioning of a democracy. Consequently, I do not see much hope unless young people make an effort to acquire accurate information and then recognize how they are being manipulated and why. The people who believe Trump is honest now are not reachable with accurate information (about 80% of republicans).
Unfortunately I totally agree.
DeleteThis was an interesting observation:
ReplyDelete"Recession mentions sharply decline in Q2 earnings season"
It might mean less risk of recession.... or more ignoring of the risk.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4483091-recession-mentions-sharply-decline-in-q2-earnings-season?mailingid=41077155&messageid=2900&serial=41077155.27699&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=41077155.27699
________
VIX count under 20 is now nearing 3 months?
____
I've lost a lot of gain by selling in my IRA to hold over the last few months. Somehow I'm not nervous about it. (Don't have FOMO happening.)
Land: The VIX count is at 55 through last Friday, August 8.
DeleteThe next test for the blue sky forever scenario will be the inflation report for July that will be released tomorrow morning.
It is possible that investors are not disturbed by the inflationary impact of tariffs since (1) the impact has not materially shown up in inflation yet and/or (2) a belief that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit will uphold the 3 judge panel decision that Trump had no authority to impose any of the reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Powers Act of 1977, which does not even mention the word tariff. Congress in Article 1 of the Constitution, not the President, has the constitutional power to impose tariffs.
Even if the Appellate Court affirms the panel's decision, the permanent injunction issued by the 3 judge panel in a unanimous decision will be stayed by either the Appellate Court or the U.S. Supreme Court pending a final decision by the Justices.
Trump is starting to worry that the U.S. will have to refund all the reciprocal tariffs.
Trump: “If a Radical Left Court ruled against us at this late date, in an attempt to bring down or disturb the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the U.S.A. has ever seen, it would be impossible to ever recover, or pay back, these massive sums of money and honor It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION!"
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/business/tariffs-trump-great-depression
Trump believes that his intended audience for his "Truth" Social messages is both ignorant and extremely stupid and consequently can be easily manipulated by ridiculous comments such as the one quoted above. He insults their intelligence with these comments.
The Radical Left Court that Trump refers to in that comment was the 3 judge panel that had judges appointed by Reagan and Trump.
In our Dear Leader's America, any judge who does not allow Trump to violate the law or the Constitution is a radical left lunatic.
So Trump is right... he's potentially set up a 1929 style depression.
DeleteOn the bright side, that might impact the 2026 elections.
All facetiousness aside, this is worrisome no matter what happens.
Only at 55. There's no indication yet that it won't get to 3 months, 90. September usually a little bumpier. But now isn't very usual.
Land: There were a number of closes above 20 that are not included in the day count, which has been the case since the Model was first formulated in 2007. Those closes were only slightly above 20 and were not sufficient to restart the day count.
DeleteAccording to several observers who attended the oral argument before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, with all appellate judges in that circuit participating, the judges expressed skepticism that Trump had the authority to impose reciprocals tariffs.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/31/trump-tariff-arguments-appeals-court-00486972
If I was sitting on that panel, the decision would be obvious:
(1) Congress has no power to delegate one of its constitutional powers, which includes tariffs, to the President unless there is an emergency involving national security and then only on a short term basis with Congress required to approve the President's action. There was a 15 day period for a vote that was triggered under the law that Trump relies upon, but the republicans redefined the meaning of a day and refused to vote on the tariffs.
(2) If there is a law that delegates the Constitutional powers of Congress to the President on an emergency and temporary basis, the law must specifically mention the power being delegated, and the law relied upon by Trump does not even mention the word tariffs.
Those requirements are necessary to preserve the separation of powers, a fundamental Constitutional principle. Otherwise, what would prevent the President from usurping other constitutional duties and powers (e.g. taxes) vested in Congress in Article 1 and, in effect, becoming a King with greater powers than King George had in 1776 who at least had to deal with a contentious Parliament rather than a rubber stamp one that we now have.
I don't think the market's expecting the justice system to stop Trump's tariffs. That seems like too detailed an expectation, for market investors.
DeleteThere's been a blue skies forever attitude for a while. So that's what I expect is driving the current rally.
Listening to Bloomberg, they talk about AI changing everything. So that's still a driver. Also that Recession risks are supposedly down. Also that tariffs have been largely determined without much impact, so it's all going to be fine. Usually somebody pipes up that there's a few more tariffs to nail down, so they're a hair cautious, all while talking about the stocks they're diving into.
I really don't know which way to expect data to go. But now we won't even know what the data is.
All of those amount to serious and effective legal arguments.
DeleteBut I'm not sure it matters under Trump with the court that we have now.
Hitler was able to create a dictatorship in I think it was 30 days. The amount of damage Trump is doing and can do before any election that can create a check and balance on him, is overwhelming.
I am going to adjust my thinking about how the market will do under Trump, to take into account that he will do anything he can to keep the market high. I've been betting against his policies. I stand by them creating uncertainty and economic problems. But I've been forgetting to take into account this other factor.
Land: The Solicitor General for the DOJ, John Sauer, formerly one of Trump's personal lawyers, sent a letter to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, the likes of which has probably never before been seen in U.S. history. He repeated Trump's recent post that a ruling against Trump on the retaliatory tariff issue, which would require refunds to the U.S. importers who paid Trump's tariff taxes, could cause another Great Depression, result in the ruin of the U.S., millions would be forced from their homes, widespread job losses, massive losses in investor savings and even threaten Medicare and Social Security.
DeletePdf:
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cafc.23105/gov.uscourts.cafc.23105.154.0_1.pdf
I am leaning toward the appellate court upholding the ruling that Trump had no authority to issue the retaliatory tariffs.
If I am right, the stickier legal point is whether the alleged "trade agreements" with the EU, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam will be undisturbed by the court even though they were the "fruit of a poisonous tree", a legal phrase used to describe evidence that is obtained illegally.
I have not seen a trade agreement with those countries. There is at best a framework for further discussion that could result in a trade treaty.
It'd be great if the appellate court upheld the illegality. At least it would be some check and balance.
DeleteIt's creepy how skilled Trump is at setting up blame of others, even when it's clearly his doing. If the economy It's into trouble, he now has a narrative that will be believed.
Also means he's been getting advice that things are dicey with the economy as a result of his actions.
Land: Trump may be aware that his policies are increasing the odds of stagflation which explains why he is now creating narratives to blame Powell, one voting meeting of the FED, and the Courts.
DeleteIf the economy was "BOOMING" as he claims when he fired the BLS commissioner after the poor July jobs report, there would be no reason for a FED rate cut, a point that can not be rationally disputed, let alone the 300 basis point cut that Trump has demanded or the 50 basis points recommended by Bessent. Both recognize IMO that the economy is in trouble which explains why they want aggressive rate cuts.
A 4.25%-4.5% federal funds rate is not historically a high rate and is normal for inflation running at current rates. The range is too low if inflation starts to accelerate.
If economic data starts to confirm the onset of stagflation, Trump will try to change the economic numbers reported by the BLS in the coming months to reflect his "vision" of what is actually happening - a "BOOMING" economy with no inflation.
We do have now a pure Orwellian government with a demagogic authoritarian who rarely makes an accurate statement as our Dear Leader. Those qualities were known, or have to be presumed to have been known given the overwhelming evidence over more than a decade, by all who voted for him.
We will know for certain in a year or so whether the 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices have gone full throttle into undermining checks and balances and creating a legal landscape for authoritarian rule. That is a definite possibility judging from their rulings to date, particularly their criminal immunity decision and to a lesser extent their decisions on gerrymandering.
The 2 key focal points now, in deciding whether the Republican Justices have gone completely rogue and full throttle into authoritarianism, will be their decisions on whether Trump had authority to issue retaliatory tariffs and whether his EOs targeting law firms violated the constitutional rights of those lawyers as every federal district court has ruled so far. Trump is appealing those decisions to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.
Trump clearly lacks the authority to issue the retaliatory tariffs and his EOs targeting law firms are flagrant violations of constitutional rights (1st, Due Process Clause of the 5th, and 6th Amendments)
So Supreme Court decisions finding that he did not violate the Constitution in those EOs and that he had the authority to issue permanent retaliatory tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, changing them up or down at his whim with no authorization from Congress that had the Constitutional right to impose tariffs in Article 1, would be the 2 best, new examples of those Justices enabling a lawless President exercising dictatorial powers.
I would add that the republicans in the House and Senate refused to vote on the retaliatory tariffs as required by law and that was done by the Orwellian move to redefine the meaning of a day as being something other than 24 hours.
GOP 'Changed The Definition Of What A Day Is To Protect Themselves From Voting On Tariffs':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m77jSWyRpY
Vanguard sent a packet for my sale of CSI Compressco in my IRA. It includes a 990-T tax form... and notice of a $500 fee.
ReplyDeleteIt was another stock that I bought that did poorly and morphed into this one with buyouts.
It's the UBTI over $1000 in an IRA requires payment of tax. Then vanguard charges $500 to submit this form they're required to send to IRS if you have less than 1 million with them.
The rep over the phone on Friday supposedly sent a request to review my case to wave the $500. The UBTI total is "none" on the 990-T. It's negative on the ScheduleA that they prepared.
I didn't see any notice before selling of such a fee.
This stock should never have been in my Roth IRA, and that's one reason I sold it. Another is that it's a crummy investment.
Land: The Vanguard fee is outrageous. IRS filings that brokers do, like UBTI and K-1 partnership forms, are done by computer.
ReplyDeleteI have never owned CSI Compressco (CCLP) directly, but I did buy and sell Tetra Technologies (TTI) as a Lotto. Back in 2015, TTI owned 44% of CCLP units and was the general partner.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Item # 2. Bought Back Tetra Technologies (TTI) at $4.94
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2015/02/update-for-lottery-ticket-basket.html
I researched what happened to CCLP and noted a press release that Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (a regular C corporation) acquired it in 2024:
https://ir.kodiakgas.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/25/kodiak-gas-services-inc-announces-completion-of-csi
I have never owned KGS. The dividend yield is good. I next looked at the 2024 tax classification of the KGS dividends and noted that the entire amount was classified as ROC (return of capital) that reduced the tax cost basis and was not taxable as a dividend when paid.
I did not know what TTI had done with its CCLP shares. After researching the issue, I saw a press release where TTI sold almost all of its units in January 2021.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tetra-technologies-inc-announces-plans-to-deconsolidate-csi-compressco-lp-301200025.html
I also drew a blank on what I did with the last TII share purchase at $4.94, finding no discussion in the blog. I sold the lot on 5/12/15, bought on 2/17/15, at a $80.76 profit. I did not publish any blogs here after 3/3/15 through July 2015.
I am going to take another look later today to see whether I want to restart a Lotto position in TTI.
CCLP was a loser for me. I didn't know enough to sell it before this type of energy stock went back into its bear market. I think I lost around $4000. So it would make it particularly annoying to pay a $500 fee on top of that.
DeleteI still have some KGS. It's a k-1 too. Before selling I'll have to figure out if vanguard's going to charge a fee or maybe if I move it to a different broker.
I've called Vanguard twice. The first person said they would put in a request to wave, but didn't. The second person actually filed the request and gave a case number. I was able to attach a letter of my own to the case. So I'll see what happens. I closed the letter by saying that if they can't wave the fee, please give me instructions on how to set up an arbitration request. This is one fee that I will push to get rid of.
I don't think most people get charged because the ones who have enough UBTI income tend to have more than a million in Vanguard where it's waived.
The 990-T forms they sent list on the lines for a total UBTI income, none, and in another spot, -1150. Their letter says that they charge the fee because the required to send the form, if you have income over $1,000. Since my income is negative, that should negate the need for the forms and therefore for the fee.
Now I have to wait and see. It hasn't been pulled from my account yet.
Land: Vanguard is the worst broker that I have. An example is that their bid/ask quotes for bonds are invariably less favorable than my other brokers. I also noted today that purchase orders for bonds at Vanguard will soon transition to no less than $10,000.
DeleteI am not that familiar with KGS. The "Inc." indicates that it is a regular corporation and not a partnership.
The dividends were not been supported by GAAP net income last year so they were classified as return of capital. No tax is owed on the dividends classified as ROC, but the amount so classified will reduce the tax cost basis. When the shares with ROC adjustments are sold, that will either increase the "profit" or decrease the loss as the case may be.
https://ir.kodiakgas.com/stock-data/dividend-history
Interesting that Vanguard is bad in those ways. Bogle's ideas made investing much more accessible for retail investors. But this stuff is significantly not good.
DeleteI will have to research more on KGS before I sell. I didn't know about ROC.
Land: Return of capital (ROC) happens when a dividend is not fully supported by GAAP net income. All of the dividends paid by KGS last year were so classified. That is unusual for a non-pass through company (regular "C" corporation), though I will see partial ROC support where there are substantial non-cash depreciation expenses that significantly reduce GAAP net income, which is the case for pipeline companies.
DeleteROC will also occur in equity REITs that have substantial depreciation expenses.
Under current tax law, which permits the tax cost basis to be stepped up to the market price on the DOD, the ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis can have some benefit for a person's heirs. In that scenario, the ROC supported dividends were not taxed to the owner while living (i.e. since the shares were not sold), and would not be taxed when the tax cost basis is adjusted to the market price having become irrelevant in that adjustment.
Vanguard has a number of problems with the layout and navigation at its website, easily the worst among my brokers.
For U.S. trades, the best broker that I have is Fidelity. For international trades, the best is Interactive Brokers which has lower commissions and lower foreign currency exchange fees. I will not buy a security on a foreign exchange using any other broker.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/08/atlcz-bns-din-doc-fbrt-fhb-glq-gmre.html
I went through my tax papers for 2024 and 2023. I don't have k-1 for KGS. I have none for 2024, and Laz k1 for 2023 before they converted to regular structure.
ReplyDeleteGoogling KGS, results say it's a k1. Maybe Google hasn't kept up with their company changes and buys.
My entire holding is worth about $823. My losses are close to 4,000. The dividends help against that.
Vanguard hasn't put me through to the department that actually knows what it's talking about on UBTI in an IRA. It looks like Schwab may have a lower fee of $200. Still absurd, but they have a nice write up describing the whole situation too.
I've been baffled by Vanguard's website. It's not poorly done. It's erratically, inadequately, and contradictingly done. How did a company that size not find a website team to create a decent website?
I've like Fidelity's retail investor interface. Still I'm considering moving money to Vanguard to get the extra .3%.
I haven't tried out interactive brokers.
Land: I believe the KGS K-1 is for the former owners of CSI Compressco.
Deletehttps://ir.kodiakgas.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/43/kodiak-gas-services-announces-2024-schedule-k-1-investor
Interactive Brokers adds nothing to Fidelity or Schwab when trading on U.S. markets.
Schwab is the only brokerage firm that I have which has research worth reading, that is, reports from Morningstar, Argus and S&P.
I will be discussing in tomorrow's blog restarting a Lotto position in TTI (just 20 shares at $3.95) which I last sold in 2015. It was TTI that at one time owned a majority of the CSI Compressco LP units and was the general partner.
For ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis, that is only relevant when the security is owned in a taxable account.
The conversion of a mall into apartments or condos is expensive but it is happening in localities where land is expensive and vacant land is scarce.
Commercial real estate is still struggling and that can be seen in losses taken by REITs that loan money for commercial projects and more write-offs by regional banks.
The major problems are in office buildings in major cities on the east and west coasts, particularly in places like San Francisco. The problems seem to be dissipating.
I believe that all office REITs other than Highwoods (HIW) have eliminated or slashed their dividends. One or two are skating on the edge of a BK. HIW focuses on the southeast where the work at home trend was less severe and occupancy levels return to normal more quickly.
Thanks for all the info!
DeleteThanks for laying out the tariff situation which bleeds over into an authoritarian situation.
ReplyDeleteNot good.
A shopping mall near me is being converted to housing.
ReplyDeleteFor a while commercial real estate was in a big slump. Has that slump ended?