Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction (Item # 2): $50,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bond Purchase (Item # 5): $2,000 in principal amount
I own corporate bonds in 3 taxable accounts. The largest weighting is in my Fidelity account. That broker has a "Fixed income dashboard" that lists all of the bonds, CDs and treasuries that I own in that account, arranged by maturity, and also provides the credit ratings and other information. Among the helpful information is an estimation of my weighted average duration and weighted yield to maturity. Here are those aggregate numbers as of 11/13/25 in that account:
I linked the posts discussing those sales in my 11/1/25 Post near the top. While I generated $3,092.11 in "profits" from those sales, reduced by duration and my interest rate risk, I also reduced my interest income which I may not be able to replace anytime soon given the yields for new purchases.
All corporate bonds that I have ever purchased were bought at discounts to par value, so the YTM will always be higher than current yield and the coupon.
I had the following corporate bonds mature in my Fidelity account on 11/15/25:
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| $30,000 |
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| $595.63 |
The Prudential, Arizona Public Service, and Dow Chemical are 1 bond lots. The National Rural Utilities is a 2 bond lot that pays monthly interest.
I had 15 corporate bonds mature today in my Vanguard and Interactive Brokers accounts, but the redemption information and the proceeds will not appear in those accounts until next Tuesday. 2 Treasury notes matured in my Schwab account.
I am primarily a bond investor now.
Inflow common stocks/stock fund (Item # 1): $1,812.5
I am attempting to have a net add of $1,000+ in dividend paying stocks each week. I had no sales over the past week.
Since I am having trouble finding stocks to buy using my criteria, I am relying more on starting Placeholder Positions with the initial purchase being 1 or 2 shares. The first purchase price is the highest that I am willing to pay, and this extreme risk reduction strategy reflects at least 1 major concern and usually more about the company and the stock price over the short term. Each subsequent purchase is required to be at the lowest price in the chain and will be limited to 1 to 5 share lots with a low maximum share position until I see a resolution of my concerns and a persistent improvement in earnings.
Inflow Equity Preferred Stocks (Item # 3): $511.1
Inflow Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bond (Item # 4): $527.5
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (11/3/25)
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Economy:
Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows
New foreclosures rise 20% in October, a sign of housing market distress
Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2025 | MBA
Nearly 900,000 new homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, signaling a troubling shift in the housing market - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
Trump tariffs help push U.S. beef prices higher (1/13/25). I discussed this topic in a video, Tariffs on Beef Imports and Record High Beef Prices -The Buck Never Stops at Trump's Desk - YouTube.
Trump cuts tariffs for coffee, beef, bananas and other food item (11/14/25) Based on what I read so far, Trump cut the tariffs on Brazilian coffee, beef and fruit exports by 10%, leaving the tariff rate at 40% as well as additional tariffs when beef exports except a maximum level. Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc
Cutting those tariffs indicates that Trump is aware that the republican tariff taxes are raising prices to U.S. consumers.
Rolling Back the Tariffs Exposes Trump's Lie - YouTube
The Trump administration claims that it is driving down costs to consumers. What Trump is actually doing is removing some of the price increases caused by the republican tariff taxes. Prices could continue to rise as companies pass through into higher consumer prices a larger percentage of the tariff taxes and absorbing less.
U.S. to remove tariffs on some products from Ecuador, Argentina, Guatemala and El Salvador
Electricity bills in states with the most data centers are surging There is a common sense reason why retail electricity are surging in those states. It costs a lot more to build new generation than the embedded average cost of the existing plants. The cost of the new plants is added to the rate base, and the utility earns a rate of return on that base, which then results in retail and wholesale customers paying more for electricity.
U.S. and Switzerland reach a trade deal, USTR Greer says Greer said that the U.S. has "essentially reached a deal". As part of arrangement when finalized, private Swiss companies, not the Swiss government, pledged to invest $200B in the U.S. by the end of 2028. I do not view that pledge to be enforceable and a considerable part of those investments would have been made anyway by Swiss companies like Novartis and Roche expanding their manufacturing in the U.S. (see, e.g. Investing in America’s Health | Novartis United States of America, already having plans to invest $23B over 5 years)
How to lobby Trump with Swiss precision: gifts, gold and gab
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Trump and His Orwellian Party:
Cruelty is an objective.
Trump pardons Giuliani, Meadows, others allegedly involved in efforts to overturn 2020 election results, including "false electors" - CBS News Trump has pardoned persons who have been charged with or pled guilty to state crimes. He has no power to do so. These pardons are simply part of Trump's ongoing effort to rewrite what actually happened on January 6th.
At least 10 pardoned insurrectionists face other criminal charges - Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (6/4/25); Houston man pardoned by Trump arrested on child sex charge-The Texas Tribune; Donald Trump stands by Jan. 6 pardon after rioter charged in new crime; Andrew Taake: Trump’s Jan. 6 Pardons Keep Child Sex Predator Out of Prison
Jonathan Braun, drug dealer granted clemency by Trump, now back behind bars | The Independent
Man COLLAPSES Behind Donald Trump During Live Oval Office Press Conference - YouTube Trump is a malignant narcissist. How to Tell You're Dealing With a Malignant Narcissist | Psychology Today
Trump on 11/8/25: "I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE, and have money left over". Doesn't sound like he supports Obamacare, let alone Obamacare premium support payments. I discussed that message in my last YouTube video: Consumer Sentiment Plunging - Data Consistent with Early Onset Stagflation - Political Dysfunction - YouTube
The Mafia Presidency - The Atlantic The lesson is obvious. Do what Trump says or you will be hurt. He has turned the powers of the Presidency, vastly expanded by the 6 Republican Justices, into a vast extortion/protection racket with no pushback from republicans. Inside the Trump administration’s extortion-industrial complex | The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression; Top Silicon Valley executives mum to Trump’s extortion — "capitulation"
DOJ has big hearing in “Trump Enemy’’ prosecution. Judge not pleased.
ICE to Hold Grandma With Green Card Past Thanksgiving Over Old Misdemeanor - Newsweek
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Trump and Republican "Transparency" on the Epstein Files:
Trump mentioned in Jeffrey Epstein emails Epstein claimed in an email that Trump knew about the girls. Epstein stated in another email that he knows "how dirty donald is".
Karoline Leavitt: "These emails prove absolutely nothing other than the fact that President Trump did nothing wrong."
There were several reports that Trump Administration officials, including the AG Pam Bondi, the Deputy AG Todd Blanche (formerly Trump's criminal defense attorney who is still representing his interests in his current job IMO, rather than the interests of the his client the USA) and the FBI Director, were attempting to pressure 3 of the 4 republican House members, who had already signed the discharge petition, to revoke their vote. Why?
The discharge petition is the procedure used to bypass Mike Johnson's control over whether to even hold a House vote requiring the government to release the Epstein files. Based on an order received from Trump, Johnson was not going to allow a vote without a discharge petition securing enough signatures. Trump administration holds Situation Room meeting over House effort to force release of all of DOJ’s Epstein files | CNN Politics; Bipartisan duo secures signatures to force a House vote to release Epstein files House Republicans will now have to vote on passing the bill known as the Epstein Files Transparency Act, and that is something that they wanted to avoid. Trump will punish any republican who votes for passage.
When asked about that pressure, Karoline Leavitt, in her now customary and everyday Orwellian doublespeak, stated that pressuring those republicans to revoke their signature on the discharge petition, which would have prevented a vote on releasing the Epstein files, proved Trump's transparency on releasing information relating to Epstein. She of course claimed there was no pressure which is not believable since only the republican House members, other than Massie, who had signed the discharge petition were singled out for the high level discussions.
Only 4 republican House members signed the discharge petition: Thomas Massie, R-Ky, . Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., and Nancy Mace, R-S.C. The rest opposed it. All House Democrats signed the petition.
Trump through a spokesperson said that any republican who signed the discharge petition had committed a "very hostile act" against him. 'Very Hostile': White House Threatens Republicans Over Epstein File Release - National Memo Why is signing a petition to have a vote on releasing the Epstein files a very hostile act against Trump? Donald Trump warns Republicans against engaging on Jeffrey Epstein files (11/12/25)
While the bill is expected to pass in the House with a few republican votes, more than the 4 who signed the discharge petition, the republican majority in the Senate will probably prevent a vote or, if a vote is allowed, enough republican senators will vote against it to prevent passage and, even if passed, Trump will veto the legislation, so it has no chance of becoming law in its current form.
So are they republicans transparent, as they so "earnestly" claim, or are they just protecting Trump from what they know or strongly suspect is in those files? Epstein offered reporter photos of 'donald and girls in bikinis in my kitchen' - ABC News; I’ve Seen Epstein Pics of Trump With Topless Girls: Michael Wolff | Inside Trump's Head - YouTube The answer is obvious.
The WH Communications Director, the perpetually juvenile Stephen Cheung, had this to say about the recently released emails and Michael Wolff: "Michael Wolff is a lying sack of s*** and has been proven to be a fraud. He routinely fabricates stories originating from his sick and warped imagination, only possible because he has a severe and debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome that has rotted his peanut-sized brain." Michael Wolff responds to Epstein emails about Trump - Newsweek That kind of comment plays well in Trump's America and has been made into acceptable discourse by Trump throughout the government, social media and other outlets.
Republicans refuse to swear in Adelita Grijalva, delaying Jeffrey Epstein petition She was finally sworn in last week after her election on 9/23/25, and proceeded to sign the discharge petition. She was the last vote necessary to bypass Johnson's refusal to hold a vote which explains Johnson's delay.
The only certain result will be to require the House republicans to go on record voting against the release of the Epstein files. That will not stop them from claiming they were being transparent with their votes, or that they had some implausible reason, other than protecting Trump, for their vote against releasing the files. They are extremely and obviously transparent, as is Trump, but not in the way they claim to be.
Megyn Kelly Questions Whether Jeffrey Epstein Counts as a Pedophile Kelly, a Queen in Maga America, made this statement: "There's a difference between a 15-year-old and a 5-year-old, you know?" Megyn Kelly Casts Doubt on Accusations Jeffrey Epstein Was a ‘Pedophile’ - Newsweek
Deputy AG Todd Blanche declares "war" on "activist judges," bar associations; Todd Blanche involvement in Epstein case fuels questions : NPR; Ghislaine Maxwell to seek commutation, document indicates - POLITICO; Whistleblower docs reveal Ghislaine Maxwell's plea for commutation; Trump Goon Breaks Silence on Maxwell’s Prison ‘Lies’ Maxwell was transferred to a cushy low security prison a few days after answering puff questions from the Deputy AG Todd Blanche, acting IMO as Trump's attorney only, where she obligingly asserted Trump's innocence on all matters related to Epstein. She was then quickly rewarded for providing the right answers to the questions posed by Trump's attorney masquerading as the Deputy AG.
Trump has responded to the increased pressure to release the Epstein files, not by releasing the files of course, but by ordering the compliant AG to investigate everyone who had any ties to Epstein whose name is not Donald Trump. Trump asks DOJ to probe Jeffrey Epstein dealings with Clinton, JPMorgan, Larry Summers Bondi quickly complied with that Presidential edict and selected Jay Clayton to lead the investigation of Trump's critics. During his first term, Trump appointed Clayton to lead the Security and Exchange Commission.
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LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) had a 1 for 5 reverse split. LXP Industrial Trust - LXP Industrial Trust Completes Reverse Share Split (11/10/25) I owned 50 shares in my Fidelity account and now own 10 with an AC of $40.52.
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/14/25 |
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| The $4.05 is not a "dividend" but proceeds from selling fractional share |
A Added 5 SAFE at $13.1; 5 at $12.85 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Safehold Inc. (SAFE) - A Ground Lease REIT
Cost: $129.75
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
SAFE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/7/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $1.62; at $1.65 in 2026 and at $1.67 in 2027. While cheap on a P/E basis, anemic E.P.S. growth will restrain upward momentum in price and dividend increases.
Website: Safehold - The Modern Ground Lease Company
Current Safehold Portfolio | Safehold
Ground Leases by Type of Property:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 Debt is listed and discussed starting at page 24.
Top 10 Ground Leases:
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| 10-Q at page 42 |
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Added to SAFE - Bought 5 at $13.69 (8/19/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
New Average cost per share this account: $14.41 (55 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.177 per share ($.708 annually)
SAFE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share: 4.91%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/25
SU Debt and Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
Fitch has a A- credit rating on the SU debt. Fitch Upgrades Safehold's Rating to 'A-'; Outlook Stable (12/18/24)
Last SU Offering (11/24): Prospectus for 5.65% Maturing in 2035
I owned that SU note for a brief time:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): SEC Filing
Revenues: $96.162M, up from $90.705M
E.P.S. = $.61
9 Month E.P.S. at $1.21
Maximum Position All Taxable Accounts: 200 Shares
B. Added 5 SAFE in Fidelity Account at $13.3:
See Item # 1.A. above.
Cost: $66.5
New average cost per share this account: $13.53 (10 shares)
Yield at $13.53: 5.23%
C. Added 5 NBXG at $14.76 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund Inc. Overview - A Stock CEF
Cost: $73.8
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/25:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 NBXG in Fidelity Account at $15.15 (9/21/25 Post)
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 7/31/25
NBXG Portfolio | Morningstar (accessible to non-subscribers)
New Average cost per share this account: $15.02 (15 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.12 per share ($1.44 annually)
NBXG Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
ROC Supported.
The only way to support the dividend is with capital gains. Most of the holdings pay no or minimal dividends.
Yield at $15.02: 9.59%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/17/25
Data Date of 11/7/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $16.83
Closing Market Price: $14.76
Discount: -12.3%
Average 3 year discount: -15.14%
Sourced: NBXG - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
D. Added 5 SILA in Fidelity Account at $23.1:
Quote: Sila Realty Trust Inc. (SILA) - Healthcare REITCost: $115.5
Management: Internal
References to SILA include its operating subsidiary.
Website: Home - Sila Realty Trust
Properties - Sila Realty Trust
As of 9/30/25, SILA "owned 140 real estate properties and three undeveloped land parcels, including the Stoughton Healthcare Facility which has been taken out of service and is being demolished." 10-Q at page 26
Leased square feet: 5.273M
Occupancy: 99.1%
99.9% of leases are triple net leases
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Started SILA in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $22.4; 5 at $22.18 (9/21/24 Post) When these shares were bought, the REIT was paying monthly dividends at $.1333 ($1.6 annually). The REIT switched to a quarterly payment of $.40 per share in 2025.
New Average cost per share this account: $23.94 (20 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/7/25 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
SILA Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will reinvest the dividend starting with the next payment.
Yield at $23.94: 5.85%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/20/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $49.848M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.21
AFFO, Core FFO and FFO per share: all at $.56
Reconciliation:
E. Added 10 WEN in Schwab account at $8.65:
Quote: Wendy's Co. (WEN)
Cost: $86.5
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
Chart: Major Bear Market trend of unknowable duration.
WEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to WEN - Bought 5 at $8.8 (10/18/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $9.35 (60 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/28/25): SEC Filed Press Release
Operational Highlights:
Revenues: $549.516M, down from $566.739M
Adjusted Revenues: $442.503M, down from $443.585M (excludes advertising revenues)
E.P.S. $.23
Adjusted E.P.S. $.24, down from $.25
The consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. was at $.2 per Schwab.
"The decrease in adjusted earnings per share was primarily driven by an increase in depreciation and cloud computing amortization expenses, a higher tax rate, and lower other income. These were partially offset by fewer shares outstanding as a result of the Company’s share repurchase program and an increase in adjusted EBITDA."
Reconciliation:
2025 Adjusted E.P.S. Outlook: $.82-$.89
9 month Free Cash Flow: $195.605M, down from $213.036M.
"The decrease in free cash flow was primarily driven by an increase in capital expenditures and investments associated with the Company’s franchise development fund."
"The Company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $14.0 million in the third quarter of 2025."
Purchase Restriction: With the possible negative impact on profit margins and revenues due to input cost inflation, I will limit my subsequent purchases to 5 shares with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
F. Added to BRT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.72+; 5 at $14.5:
Quote: BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT) - Internally Managed Apartment REIT
Cost: $146
Properties as of 9/30/25:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Started BRT in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $14.68 (10/18/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filing
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated BRT - Sold 25 at $18.68 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.17)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Properties | BRT Apartments | REIT
BRT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
New Average cost per share this account: $15.03 (45 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last from from $.23 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
BRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
In this account, I will start to reinvest the dividend effective for the next payment.
Yield at $15.03 AC per share: 6.65%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/24/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): SEC Filing
Revenues: $24.434M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.14)
FFO per share: $.28
AFFO per share $.36, unchanged
Reconciliation:
The AFFO calculation does not deduct routine maintenance expenses from FFO and is not a funds available for distribution (FAD) number. Non-cash revenue created by the straight line accounting convention is deducted from FFO.
The REIT does provide elsewhere in its earnings release a line item for "Estimated recurring capital expenditures":
Quote: Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM)
Cost: $101.57
Kimco owns 564 open-air grocery anchored shopping centers and mixed use properties in the U.S with square footage at 100M.
KIM is a S&P 500 component.
Management: Internal
Average cost per share this account: $20.95 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually), last raised from $.25 effective for the 2025 4th quarter payment. There was a dividend slash from $.28 per share to $.10 share effective for the 2020 third quarter payment due to the pandemic.
KIM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $20.95: 4.964%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/5/25
I. Restarted WHR as a Placeholder in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $66.17:
Recent History this Account:
Quote: Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)
Website: Home, Kitchen & Laundry Appliances & Products | Whirlpool
Our Brands | Whirlpool Corporation
While U.S. production for domestic sales is close to 80%, WHR has been hurt this year by Asian competitors front loading inventory by about 30% in advance of the republican tariff taxes and then discounting that inventory that created downward pricing pressure.
I mentioned in a comment published on 11/14/25 that David Tepper's hedge fund, Appaloosa LP, disclosed after the market closed on 11/13/15 that it had acquired 5.5 million WHR shares during the third quarter or 9.8% of the outstanding shares. SEC Form 13-G That sent the share up $4.59 or 6.99% yesterday, closing at $70.28.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Eliminated Placeholder Position in WHR - Sold 1 at $86.6 (8/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.2)- Item # 1.L. Bought 1 WHR as a Placeholder at $77.4 (4/18/25 Post)
WHR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/13/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2026 was at $12.33 but falling to $9.22 in 2027.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.90 per share ($3.6 annually), recently slashed from $1.75 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment.
WHR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
WHR needs to use the savings to pay down debt.
Yield at $66.17: 5.44% (assumes no further cuts)
Next Ex Dividend: 11/21/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
Net Revenues: $4.033B
GAAP E.P.S. = $1.29
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $2.09
Reconciliation:
Free Cash Flow ($907M) I view that as a major negative.
2025 Guidance:
Fitch Downgrades Whirlpool's IDR to 'BB+'; Outlook Negative
Other 2025 Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Eliminated WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $92.09 (6/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.95, discussed 2025 1st Q report, SEC Filed Press Release); Item # 3.E. Pared WHR in Fidelity Account - Sold 3 at $132.5 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $124.67; Item # 4.B. Eliminated WHR in Schwab Account - Sold 3 at $120.1 (1/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.12)
I am trying to find a starting price where I am comfortable buying and then adding small lots thereafter at lower prices.
Analyst Report available to Schwab customers:
S&P (10/29/25): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $86, reduced from $92 in response to the last earnings report.
Several analysts reduced their price targets in response to the third quarter report. I do not have access to those reports. Examples include JPM going to $78 from $84 and Stifel to $69 from $80.
WHR Stock Forecast, Price Target, and Price Chart | Seeking Alpha
J. Started Small Ball Position in WHR in Fidelity Account - Bought 2+ Shares at Various Prices:
See Item #1.H above
Cost: $183.66
Average cost per share: $70.58
Yield at AC = 5.1%
The reason for starting this small ball duplicate position is that I can buy fractional shares in my Fidelity account, which I started to do after buying 1 share. I simply click the "Dollars" button in the order box and so far I have made three $30 purchases and one $20.
K. Added to NEWT - Bought 5 at $10.35; 10 at $10.07:
Quote: NewtekOne Inc. (NEWT)
Cost: $152.45
NEWT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/7/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $2.16, at $2.35 in 2026 and at $2.34 in 2027.
New Average cost per share: $10.64 (35 shares)
NEWT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
Yield at $10.64: 7.14%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/14/25 (owned 20 as of)
Goal: Harvest the dividend and exit the position at any profit.
Maximum Position: 100 shares, limited primarily to the uncertainties on valuation based on the quality of earnings.
L. Added to ARE Placeholder - Bought 1 at $54.42; 1 at $53.8:
Quote: Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE) - Life Science REIT
Cost: $108.32
ARE is a component of the S&P 500.
Properties as of 9/30/25: 10-Q
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| 10-Q at page 26 |
Debt is heavy and is listed at page 41.
Top 20 Tenants as of 9/30/25:
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| 10-Q at page 68 |
Occupancy as of 9/30/25: 90.6%
Weighted average remaining lease term: 7.5 years
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Started ARE as a Placeholder - Bought 1 at $69.8 (6/12/25 Post)
This REIT was deservedly smashed in price after its 2025 third quarter report that I discussed in a comment published on 10/28/25. I first noted that the stock was then at $62.94, down $14.93 intraday.
The REIT reported AFFO per share at $2.2 vs. the $2.32 consensus and guided down 2025 AFFO per share from $9.16-$9.36 to $8.98-$9.36. Those numbers would have caused the stock to decline, but not by $14.93. The lower AFFO per share numbers will carry through into 2026 because of these significant problems:
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| Footnote 3, impairment charge of $323.870M and Note 4 |
SEC Filed Supplemental at page 11
And additional impairment charges of zero to $685M in the 2025 4th quarter:
Page 4 Supplemental.
While bad investment decisions will happen, the number and amount of those decisions disclosed in ARE's last report calls into question management competence and are just far too large.
My Outlook: In addition to a likely dividend cut, I expect the stock to remain under selling pressure. Over the long term, this REIT owns quality real estate and is the primary life science REIT.
Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern
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| 5 Year Chart, Intraday on 11/13/25 |
Looking at that chart, maybe the Board needs to make some changes at the top.
52 week high at $112.42 as of 11/13/25
The stock traded at over $167 in January 2023.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.32 per share ($5.28). ARE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha At page 6 of the 3rd quarter report, it is stated that the Board is going to carefully evaluate the dividend which signals a likely dividend slash IMO. I would not be surprised by a cut to $1 -$1.1, but a larger cut would suggest that there are more cockroaches present.
Average cost per share: $59.34 (3 shares)
Yield at $59.34: 8.9% (assumes no cut)
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: Currently at 5 shares.
Owed ARE SU Bonds: 10
4 of the 4.3% Maturing on 1/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 3.8% Maturing on 4/15/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 3.95% Maturing on 1/15/27 (RI account), Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 4.5% Maturing on 7/30/29, Bond Page | FINRA.org. I may sell these 2.
Credit Rating on SU Debt: Baa1/BBB+
With my bond exposure far exceeds the amount invested in the common stock, I would like to see the Board slash the common share dividend and use the proceeds to pay down debt and/or to use the savings to fund existing development projects, thereby lessening the need for some new debt offerings.
M. Bought 1 EBAY at $81.48 - Placeholder Position - Schwab Account:
Quote: eBay Inc. (EBAY)
EBAY "is a global commerce leader that connects people and builds communities to create economic opportunity for all. Our technology empowers millions of buyers and sellers in more than 190 markets around the world, providing everyone the opportunity to grow and thrive. Founded in 1995 in San Jose, California, eBay is one of the world's largest and most vibrant marketplaces for discovering great value and unique selection. In 2024, eBay enabled $75 billion of gross merchandise volume"
A Placeholder Position is a reminder that I may want to buy more shares at lower prices but am hesitant to buy based on one or more factors being present including valuation at the current price; no or minimal dividends; the balance of risk/reward assessment tilting more toward risk; competitive pressures on profit margins; significant negative impacts from the republican tariff taxes; and/or unresolved operating issues impacting profitability.
EBAY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/11/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2026 was at $5.92 and at $5.96 in 2026. If those estimates prove to be accurate forecasts, then the stock is fairly valued at my purchase price IMO. I believe those numbers are non-GAAP estimates.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 Long term debt was reported at $5.003B and is discussed starting at page 31.
Last Bond Offering (11/25): Prospectus
I view it as a positive that the company can raise capital at these coupons. I am not comfortable with the overall debt level.Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
eBay Inc.'s Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes Rated | S&P Global Ratings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually)
EBAY Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $81.48: 1.42%
This is my primary problem limiting my dollar investment amount given my investment objectives in order of importance to me: (1) capital preservation; (2) income generation, (3) capital preservation.
Next Ex Dividend: 11/28/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Revenues: $2.8B, up 9%
Gross Merchandise Volume: $20.1B, up 10%
GAAP E.P.S. $1.28
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $1.36
Most of the adjustments involve deducting stock based compensation and the amortization of intangibles. Both are non-cash expenses.
2025 and 2025 4th Q. Guidance:
| 2025 Non-GAAP E.P.S. $5.42-$5.47 |
Free cash flow: $803M, up from $646M
My interest in EBAY arose after I recently started to participate in baseball card auctions. I was very impressed with the technology and ease of use.
I became interested in baseball cards as an inflation hedge after viewing the auction prices for my vintage cards, primarily from the 1950s and early 1960s, along with the prices of cards that I bought in the early 1980s when I last became interested as investor. (My Video: New Blog Post Discussing Investments Including Baseball Cards - YouTube)
I have ignored this investment category for over 40 years, but am now actively involved with some purchases and sending off my raw cards to be slabbed and graded by SGC and CGC. I intend to sell a few of the high value cards next year by consigning them for auction (e.g. 1954 Hank Aaron rookie card, Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1954 TOPPS Henry Aaron). Becoming an Ebay seller is not something that I will ever bother to do now, since avoiding as many hassles as possible is a prime objective.
N. Added to Falling Knife CLX - Bought 1 at $105.5; 1 at $104.2:
Quote: Clorox Co. (CLX)
Cost: $209.7
CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $114.47 (12+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.24 per share ($4.96 annually)
CLX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will reinvest the dividend for as long as the likely reinvestment price reduces my average cost per share.
Yield at New AC per share: 4.33%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post Item # 1.M. Added to Falling Knife CLX - Bought 1 at $109.87; 1 at $106.8- Schwab Account (11/8/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. This is a risk mitigation strategy that recognizes that the company has issues, the price bottom is unknowable and is currently not discernible in a chart, an opinion that the stock is reasonably priced based on a 1 to 3 year time horizon, and significant downside momentum.
Maximum Position: I will continue buying 1 share lots until I hit 20, excluding shares purchased with dividends, and will then require something clear and concrete showing a persistent uptrend in earnings to buy more. Paring may occur starting when the highest cost lot can be sold profitably, part of my small ball trading strategy which is a risk mitigation technique that I use now.
O. Restarted SLG as a Placeholder - Bought 2 at $50.2; 1 at $48.7:
Quote: SL Green Realty Corp (SLG)
Cost: $150.1
Website: Homepage - SL Green
Properties - SL Green - NYC's Largest Commercial Landlord
"SL Green Realty Corp., Manhattan's largest office landlord, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust, or REIT, that is focused primarily on acquiring, managing and maximizing the value of Manhattan commercial properties. As of September 30, 2025, SL Green held interests in 53 buildings totaling 30.7 million square feet. This included ownership interests in 27.1 million square feet of Manhattan buildings and 2.7 million square feet securing debt and preferred equity investments."
The preceding quote provides an explanation of the current problem and a possible long term benefit for shareholders buying at the current price IMO.
NYC office properties have been struggling starting with the pandemic and the work-from-home trend. Occupancy levels in Manhattan are improving.
SU Credit Ratings: BB+ from S&P; BB+ from Fitch. Both are high end junk ratings. Fitch Affirms SL Green Realty Corp. at 'BB+'; Outlook Positive I do not own any SLG debt.
Average cost per share: $49.7 (3 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.2575 per share ($3.09 annually), last raised from $.25 effective for the December 2024 payment. The monthly dividend was cut from $.2708 to $.25 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.
SLG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $52.2: 6.217%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/31/25:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
"Occupancy in the Company's Manhattan same-store office portfolio was 92.4% as of September 30, 2025, inclusive of 361,924 square feet of leases signed but not yet commenced, as compared to 91.5% at the end of the previous quarter. The Company expects to increase Manhattan same-store office occupancy, inclusive of leases signed but not yet commenced, to 93.2% by December 31, 2025."
Occupancy levels are not the whole story since many tenants are receiving rent concessions to sign new leases that normally involve free rent for a period and other incentives.
Revenues: $244.817M
GAAP Diluted E.P.S. = $.34
Diluted FFO per share: $1.58, up from $1.13
"In October, the Company entered into a contract to purchase Park Avenue Tower, located at 65 East 55th Street, for $730.0 million. The acquisition will deliver sustainable cash flow and provide long-term value creation while further solidifying the Company’s commitment to being the leading owner of premier properties along Park Avenue. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions."
"In September, the Company closed on the sale of a 5.0% interest in One Vanderbilt Avenue to Mori Building Co., Ltd, Japan's leading urban landscape developer. The sale follows Mori's acquisition of an 11.0% interest in the trophy office tower in November 2024. Both investments were completed at a gross asset valuation of $4.7 billion. After completion of the transaction, SLG maintains a 55.0% stake in One Vanderbilt Avenue. The transaction generated proceeds to the Company of $86.6 million."
"In August, the Company entered into a contract to purchase 346 Madison Avenue and the adjacent site at 11 East 44th Street for $160.0 million, providing the Company the opportunity to pursue a world-class, ground-up new office development. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions."
"In September, the Company, together with its joint venture partner, completed a $1.4 billion, five-year, fixed-rate refinancing of 11 Madison Avenue. The mortgage carries a stated coupon of 5.625%, which the Company hedged to an effective rate of 5.592% for its portion. The new mortgage replaces the previous $1.4 billion of debt on the property, which was comprised of a $1.075 billion senior mortgage and two mezzanine loans totaling $325.0 million."
SLG Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated SLG - Sold 36+ at $46.27 (9/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $35.68); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in SLG - Sold 20+ at $39.32 (9/9/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.26)
Snapshots of Gains over $100: Most of the profit comes from trades in 2009 and 2010.
SLG Realized Gains to Date: $1,421.74
It has been difficult to realized gains starting with the pandemic in 2020.
Maximum Position: 20 shares
Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Perspective: Long term, patience required.
SLG Equity Preferred Stock: I currently own 50 shares of SLGPRI in a taxable account, which I last discussed here: Item # 5.A. Added to SLGPRI - Bought 3 at $20.94 (6/28/24 Post). This preferred stock has a 6.5% coupon paid on a $25 par value. Prospectus My average cost per share is $21.08:
| Price as of 11/12 close |
Item # 3.A. Eliminated SLGPRI-Sold 20 at $25.96 (9/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $122); Item # 5 Sold 50 SLGPRI at $23.6 (4/3/2014 Post)
SLGPRI Realized Gains to Date: $213.77
Fitch has a BB- rating on the preferred stock.
SLGPRC Realized Gain: $1,074.65. SLGPRC was redeemed at par value in 2012: SL Green Realty Corp. Announces Redemption of 4.0 Million Shares of 7.675% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
2. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
I will probably buy 30 at next week's auctions evenly divided among the 3, 4 and 6 month T Bills. All purchases will be made in my Fidelity account as I reinvest proceeds from corporate bonds that matured today. The primary purpose for buying those T Bills is to shift tax recognition of the income into 2026. Keeping the funds in my Fidelity MM sweep account will generate income that will be taxed at a higher marginal rate this year.
A. Bought 20 T Bills at the 11/10/25 Auction - Two Accounts:
91 Day Bills
Mature on 2/26/26
Interest: $191.1
Investment Rate: 3.869%
B. Bought 10 T Bills at the 10/10/25 Auction:
182 Day Bill
Matures on 5/14/26
Interest: $186.55
Investment Rate: 3.812%
C. Bought 10 T Bills at the 11/12/25 Auction:
Coupon: Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.625%
Maturity: None, Potentially Perpetual
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 9/1/25 at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends.
Stopper Clause: Standard
Dividends: Paid Quarterly and Cumulative
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual.
Next Ex Dividend: 12/15/25
Yield at $21.8: 6.48%
Calculation: .0565% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.4125 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.8 total cost per share = 6.4794%
I view REXR as a quality REIT. The yield will consequently be lower than DCOMP, a preferred stock issued by a bank holding company, and discussed below, for 3 basic reasons: (1) REXRPRC pays cumulative dividends while DCOMP pays non-cumulative dividends; (2) If a REIT has taxable income, it has to pay common cash dividends to maintain its tax status as a pass through entity which activates the Stopper Clause and prevents a deferral of the REIT's cumulative dividend; and (3) a preferred stock issued by a bank holding company would likely become worthless when and if the FDIC seizes the operating bank whereas a preferred stock issued by a REIT that owns real estate and is leveraged close to the 50% of the value will likely have some value in a BK.
B. Added to AHHPRA - Bought 5 at $21.02 - Schwab Account:
Quote: AHH-PA
Cost: $105.1
Issuer: Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. (AHH)
Website: Armada Hoffler
AHH SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25 and SEC Filed Supplemental
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Added 10 AHHPRA at $21.65 in Fidelity Account (10/4/25 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to AHHPRA in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.78 (8/19/25 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 5 AHHPRA at $20.75-Fidelity Account (4/13/25 Post)
Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock and junior to all bonds
Prospectus (public offering price at $25 in June 2019)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.75%
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
New Average cost per share this account: $20.64 (30 Shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/12/25 after add |
Yield at New AC per share: 8.176%
Calculation: .0675% coupon x $25 par value = $1.6875 annual dividend per share ÷ $20.64 average cost per share = 8.1759%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/25 (owned 25 in this account as of)
C. Restarted DCOMP - Bought 10 at $18.8:
The DCOMP price decline in 2023 can be attributed to both a continued rise in rates and generalized credit risk concerns applicable to bank holding preferred stocks caused by the FDIC seizing the operating banks of 3 bank holding companies after deposit runs.
The downside for an equity preferred stock issued by a bank holding company is a zero price when and if the FDIC seizes the operating bank. While there may be exceptions, senior debt owed by the bank holding company would generally far exceed the value of the remaining assets, and a bankruptcy filing would occur after the FDIC seizure of the main asset - the operating bank.
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.5% paid on the $25 par value
Placement in the Capital Structure: Equity preferred stock, senior only to common stock and junior to all debt.
Dividend: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Yield at $18.8: 7.31%
Calculation: .055% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.375 annual dividend per share ÷ $18.8 total cost per share = 7.3138%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/8/24
Stopper Clause: Standard. (see pp. S-16 and S-17 of the prospectus). This clause enforces the preferred shareholders' preferential claim to cash against only the common stockholders. The common stock dividend has to be eliminated before eliminating the preferred stock dividend.
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 2/15/25. Given the low coupon, I would not currently anticipate that this security will be called in 2025. To be called, the ten year treasury yield would probably need to fall to less than 2%, probably closer to 1.5%, and DCOM would need to have a credit risk profile that would enable it to call DCOMP and refinance at a materially lower coupon.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.I. Eliminated DCOMP in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $22.3 and Item # 2.J. Eliminated DCOMP in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 15 at $21.77 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $47.55); Item # 2.A. Pared DCOMP in Fidelity Account - Sold 30 out of 80 at $25.8 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $170.85); Item # 2.B. Sold 10 DCOMP at $21.14 and 10 at $22.06-Highest Cost Lots Fidelity Taxable Account (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.23)
DCOMP Realized Gains: $349.41
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on a $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat: (no accrued interest is payable to the seller, whoever owns on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment)
First Mortgage Bond, with lien attaching to substantially all assets.
Credit Ratings: A2/A
Interest Rate Risk: HIGH given the potentially long maturity and asymmetric in favor of the issuer given the optional call right.
The interest rate risk resulting from an early call due to a significant decline in interest rates is mitigated by the realized gain at a $25 par value call.
New Average cost per share this account: $21.3 (50 shares)
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| Price as of 11/11/25 |
Next Ex Interest Date: 11/28/25
Maximum Position ELC - All Taxable Account: 300 shares
Current ELC Position - All Taxable Accounts: 230 shares ($280.31 in annual interest income)
I will own Entergy Louisiana mortgage bonds that have $1,000 par values and trade in the bond market. Those bonds have make whole provisions that will restrain the issuer's optional call right when interest rates have fallen and the issuer would be required to pay a premium to par value to call the bond early.
I have sold some of those $1,000 par value Entergy Louisiana FM bonds this year:
I still own several of them.
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/13/25 after add |
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.







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If Trump is directed investigation into other people who might be associated with the Epstein files.... Will those people have a right to see the evidence, that is to say the files, that they're being accused with?
ReplyDeleteObviously where I'm going with that is that they could then release any portion including the word Trump. They might not want to if their own name is on it too.
Land: Trump ordered his AG Pam Bondi, who also represented Trump, to investigate Democrats who may have met Epstein or communicated with him but any investigation excluded Trump. Bondi promptly appointed a republican attorney, who Trump had appointed to head up the SEC in his first term to investigate the Democrats.
DeleteTrump is obviously trying to distract attention away from himself and his steadfast refusal to release the government's files.
It is possible that a Trump appointed prosecutor will bring charges against anyone on Trump's enemies list, irrespective of the evidence supporting the charge. I doubt that the Trump ordered investigation of democrats will result in any indictments. If they do then the defense attorneys would be entitled to production of those documents that relate to them, but would not be able to justify production of documents that solely reference other people.
The issue that I see which is troublesome is that Trump ordered the AG to investigate democrats, accused them of improper conduct but excluded himself from the scope of the investigation. The fact that the AG quickly complied with that order is just another example of the DOJ completely losing any independence and the willingness of Bondi, the Deputy AG Todd Blanche, Lindsay Halligan and many others to do whatever Trump tells them to do irrespective of whether the facts justify it.
Interesting that you're having a hard time undervalued stocks that are a comfortable buy. And are doing it slowly.
ReplyDeleteThe economic data is now looking much more pointedly problematic, then it was even two months ago. I don't think that's going to get as ignored by the blue skies forever folks as it has been. Then again they're optimism has surprised me before.
Yes all of that is worrisome, the use of government for his own purposes. Worrisome is an extremely light word in this case.
ReplyDeleteI am continuing to buy dividend paying stocks. When the stock market is down as much as it is now, I will place a number of small ball limit orders below the current bid price, which I have just done.
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 Index
6,649.26 -84.85 -1.26%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home_markets
It would take about a 25%+ decline from the current S&P 500 level for me to increase my stock buying. I view the stock market as overvalued and the recent decline over the past few trading days does not change that opinion.
I have not found anything specific that would cause the decline today. I have brought into the mix the crash in crypto prices as a cause, something that I have discussed briefly here and in my last YT video.
Starting at 1:18
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH_DCnXJ2gY&t=333s
CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX)
$91,432 -$2,649 -2.82%
Last Updated: Nov 17, 2025 at 3:09 p.m. EST
The all time high price was hit in early October at over $125,000.
Medtronic PLC (MDT)
ReplyDelete$101.06 +$4.78 +4.96%
Last Updated: Nov 18, 2025 at 10:01 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mdt
I only own 15 shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share at $75.46. I have been selling my highest cost shares this year.
MDT reported second fiscal quarter non-GAAP E.P.S. of $1.36 vs the consensus. Revenues were reported at $8.96B vs. the $8.86B consensus.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1613103/000162828025052771/exhibit991-fy26q2earningsr.htm
A noteworthy revenue item was a 71% revenue increase (128% in the U.S.) in the Cardiac Ablation Solutions segment.
There is an ongoing rotation into dividend paying stocks other than a few in the consumer staples sector like CLX, REYN and KMB.
ReplyDeleteI am currently in my Schwab account where the stock allocation is currently up $506.
The gainers are concentrated in regional bank, pharma, medical equipment, equity REITs, packaged food, utility and energy infrastructure sectors.
Some of the Lottos in that account are up (E.G. RIGL)
The Russell 2000 index is up and was up when the S&P 500 was near its intraday low.
The stock market turned lower today after the FED released the minutes from its October meeting. The minutes reflect significant disagreements whether or not to cut the federal funds rate at the December meeting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/fed-minutes-october-2025.html
As I previously discussed, one cause for the market's downdraft starting last week was increasing doubts that there would be another cut this year.
The CME FedWatch tool currently has the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 33.8%, down from 93.7% one month ago.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Another cause IMO which I also previously mentioned is the crypto crash that is currently showing no signs of a let up:
CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX)
$88,610 $ -$4,174 -4.50%
Last Updated: Nov 19, 2025 at 2:47 p.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd?mod=home_markets
The 52 week high in Bitcoin was $126,273 hit in early October 2025.
There are no objective criteria for establishing a fair value range for bitcoin.
The VIX is trading over 24 at the moment.
I will generally buy into VIX spikes into the 30s and higher, but that may only mean increasing my weekly purchases of dividend stocks by a few hundred dollars since I am uncomfortable with the stock market's valuation given my assessments of a weakening economy and what I view as early stage stagflation.
It looks like the FED will not have another BLS jobs report until after it meets on 12/9-10/25 . The November report will be released on 12/16.
The last report was for August.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Thank you for the update!
ReplyDeleteI'm taking care of family medical stuff so more distracted than I'd like to be. Since I'd like to sell into this a little bit.
The layoffs at big corporations looks to me like a summary impression on how things are going with the economy. I was a little puzzled that the shift and the employment market, is usually a trailing indicator. This seems to be leading not trailing. Nonetheless it still says the same thing. Trump's policies are not working. Not unexpectedly.
Land: The stock market did bounce back from its dip after the FED released its minutes. None of this is impacting what I am doing now which involves replacing income that I will lose from lower T Bill rates next year.
DeleteAnother factor that will weigh on consumer spending next year is that 24M people will soon lose their Obamacare premium support payments at year end. Trump has told the republicans to forget about extending those support payments.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/obamacare-premium-subsidies-likely-expire-trump-opposes-extension-rcna244650
Prior to the end of the shutdown, Trump represented that he would negotiate an extension provided the Democrats approved a continuing resolution. He never had any intention of doing so.
There was never any doubt in my mind that the House and Senate republicans would not extend the premium support after 12/31/25. They want to get rid of Obamacare as well. The Democrats had to cave on the shutdown to prevent the republicans from causing even more pain and financial hardship to tens of millions (e.g. SNAP Payments)
On average, ending the premium support will increase their out-of-pocket premium expenses by over 100%. Money devoted to continuing healthcare coverage will not be available to spend on discretionary purchases.
I also noticed that Medicare Part B premiums will be rising 10% next year.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5609430-medicare-part-b-premiums-2026/
I am continuing to buy 1 share lots of two bitcoin ETFs (FBTC and IBIT). Each purchase is required to be at the lowest price in the chain. I have limited myself to no more than $2,000 out-of-pocket and am currently near $1,100 and change.
I am also continuing to buy CLX and am approaching my limit of 20 shares, currently at 16+. The stock is reasonably priced IMO, with dividend support, but the downside momentum is strong and showing no signs of a let up. The stock is currently trading below $99 with a 52 week high at $171.37.
The stock market is responding positively today to remarks made by the NY FED President John Williams who stated there was room for "a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/new-york-fed-president-williams-sees-room-for-further-adjustment-to-rates.html
Williams views a worsening labor market to be a greater threat than inflation, which may not be the majority view of voting members. The last job report may swing a few voting members who were sitting on the fence to vote for a cut.
That dovish comment puts a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting as probable. The CME FedWatch tool has the odds of a cut at 71.3% as of 10:36 a.m. CST, up from 39.1% yesterday.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Concerns that there would be no cut was one of the contributing factors to the market's volatility as I previously discussed.
The BLS has canceled the October inflation report and the inflation for November will not be released prior to the December Fed meeting. A release of inflation reports from October and November before the meeting may have caused the FED to hold off cutting the FF range.
I thought the employment report for September, released yesterday, was weak. The July and August numbers were revised down from already weak numbers, with August sliding into a -4,000 number from a slightly positive one of 22K when first reported.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The September jobs report will be the last month that federal employee, who took buyout offers paying them through September even though they were no longer employed and working, will be included as employed by the federal government. While the BLS does not intend to publish full employment data for October, some of the data will be published with the November report. The Goldman Sachs estimate for October is for a 50,000 job loss number.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/goldman-sachs-outlines-what-to-expect-from-the-delayed-september-us-jobs-report-4367700
The economy is not creating anywhere near the number of new jobs needed for new entrants into the labor market looking for jobs, which includes graduates from schools, let alone unemployed persons who have started to actively look for jobs again and that number rose in September.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/11/ahhpra-are-bhb-brt-centa-clx-emp-fbtc.html