AKBA, CAG, FHB, GSK, KC, MAXN, MTB, ORAN, QDEL, SPLK, VMEO

Economy: 

The ISM services PMI index for June declined to 60.1% from 64% in May. The consensus forecast was for 63.3%. 

Here are four reasons the West is headed for a ‘very drastic crisis,’ according to a veteran economist - MarketWatch

The Fed - Monetary Policy Minutes for the Meeting Held in June: The minutes were released on 7/7/21. Fed minutes: Officials kept patient tone on tightening monetary policy When I reviewed the minutes, my dominant reaction was that the FED members were confused about what was happening and had no clear consensus. 

Five vaccinated countries with high Covid rates rely on China vaccines; South Korea reverses loosening of mask mandate as covid infections hit record - The Washington Post; Olympics will ban spectators after Japan declares state of emergency; Covid surge pushes Indonesia’s health system to the brink | Global health | The Guardian; Israel sees drop in Pfizer Covid vaccine protection, still strong in severe illness; New study on delta variant reveals importance of receiving both vaccine shots, highlights challenges posed by mutations-republished by MSN.com from New study on delta variant reveals importance of receiving both vaccine shots, highlights challenges posed by mutations - The Washington Post ("A peer-reviewed report from scientists in France, published Thursday in the journal Nature, found that the delta variant has mutations that allow it to evade some of the neutralizing antibodies produced by vaccines or by a natural infection. A single shot of a two-dose vaccine “barely” offers any protection, researchers reported.")

U.S. bonds: Treasury yields fall amid concerns about growth, Covid (1/8/21)

+++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

China's crackdown on tech firms will hurt economic growth, says analyst (6/29/21); Didi shares tank as traders react to China's crackdown

Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other top investors are predicting an epic market crash. Here are their gravest warnings so far. | Markets Insider

11 Quality Stocks That Are Relatively Cheap | Barron's Of the 11 stocks mentioned, I currently own CLX, GILD, HOLX, PFE, REGN, and TXN.

++++

Paul Gosar (R-AZ) Says Capitol Police 'Lying in Wait' to Shoot Ashli Babbitt, Votes Against Gold Medals Gosar also suggested that the FBI was behind the 1/6/21 Capitol assault. The claim was made by this Republican congressman in an email seeking to raise campaign money. 

Excerpt Gosar Email

Gosar's statement that "Facts are coming to light" is just another Trumpster reality creation.  

Why Trump Is Anointing Ashli Babbitt as MAGA’s First Martyr (Ginger wants to change the start of this sentence to "Trump is Anointed" which is grammatically incorrect IMO and changes the meaning of the sentence from "why" Trump is doing something to he has just done something.)  

Inside the Jan. 6 Capitol Riot: An Exclusive Video Investigation - The New York Times This is an exhaustive factual account. 

Capitol riot investigation: FBI arrests people suspected of attacking journalists Jan 5-the Washington Post Paul Gosar (R-AZ) claims that the FBI is harassing the innocent protestors.

Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Paul Gosar  (R-AZ) won't honor Capitol cops. 

In Gosar, a Far-Right Extremist Found an Ally in Congress - The New York Times; Paul Gosar pushes far-right conspiracies on Charlottesville, Soros Republican Congressman suggests Charlottesville was George Soros–backed conspiracy As I understand this claim, Mr. Gosar suggested that George Soros, a Jew, funded or planned the Nazi rally in Charlottesville.   

In ramp-up to the 2022 midterms, Republican candidates center pitches on Trump’s false election claims - The Washington Post

The leader of Oklahoma's Republican party, John Bennett, has refused to endorse the ultra-conservative incumbent Republican Senator James Lankford, who is up for re-election, claiming that Lankford was a coward for refusing to object to the certified election results in the Senate vote occurring shortly after the Trumpster attempted takeover of the Capitol on 1/6/21. Lankford on GOP chairman supporting his primary opponent: 'Unheard of' | TheHill 

How G.O.P. Laws in Montana Could Complicate Voting for Native Americans - The New York Times

Republican candidates back Trump's election lies across the 2021 and 2022 maps 

Fi Duong is accused of forming militia-like group under the guise of a Bible study - The Washington Post He was one of the participants in the Trumpster attack on the nation's Capitol.    

Opinion | Trump’s Cult of Animosity Shows No Sign of Letting Up - The New York Times Demagogue Don has no discernible positive qualities as a human being. 

Trump reportedly told General John Kelly that Hitler did a lot of good things. Donald Trump said Adolf Hitler 'did a lot of good things,' book claims The book is written by a WSJ reporter and is titled "Frankly, We Did Win This Election". Frankly, We Did Win This Election: The Inside Story of How Trump Lost - Kindle edition by Michael C. Bender 

There is also a vintage claim that Don the Authoritarian was an avid reader of Hitler's speeches. Donald Trump's Ex-Wife: Trump Kept Book of Hitler's Speeches by Bed Demagogue Don certainly learned a lot from those speeches.  

Weeks after Holocaust Museum visit, Rep. Greene (R-GA) makes new Nazi-era comparison in opposing vaccination push - The Washington Post; Jewish Groups Blast Marjorie Taylor Greene's 'Medical Brown Shirts' COVID Jab Comparison Ms. Greene visited the Holocaust Museum after receiving some criticism after comparing wearing face masks to the Nazi's requiring Jews to wear the Star of David.   

Trump voters in Ohio benefited from the stimulus, but also blame it for inflation - The Washington Post Some credit Trump with the stimulus checks sent out during Biden's administration. 

Arizona secretary of state asks for investigation into possible election interference by Trump, Giuliani - CBS News

Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS)- Climate change is 'bulls---' | TheHill

Rudy Giuliani suspended from practicing law in Washington, DC 

Donald filed a frivolous lawsuit against Facebook, Twitter  and YouTube claiming that those private companies were stifling his First Amendment right to spew hate speech and misinformation and to violate without consequences the rules applicable to all persons who post at those privately owned outlets. 

The purpose of this lawsuit IMO is to raise money for himself and his party and to increase rage in the already rage-filled Trumpster population numbering in the millions. 

Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are not state actors and have the right to exclude anyone from their private platforms. Trump's claim would be similar to a four year old brat suing his parents for making him shut up after yelling obsenities during Church service. Trump’s new lawsuits against social media companies are going nowhere fast | TechCrunch; Experts say Trump's social media lawsuits are likely doomed - Axios, Trump And GOP Swiftly Fundraise Off Long-Shot ‘Censorship’ Lawsuit Against Big Tech Trump is suing Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey. Here's why they shouldn't worry; see Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck (Supreme Count 2019) The algorithms used by the Social Media companies do not censure "conservative" speech, but give conspiracy theories and other misinformation prominence. Claim of anti-conservative bias by social media firms is baseless, report finds | Social media | The Guardian   

Citizens, Not the State, Will Enforce New Abortion Law in Texas

++++

1. Bought 100 ORAN at $11.6: 

Quote: Orange ADR 

Website: Orange 

ADR Ratio: 1 to 1  

ORAN ADR Analyst Estimates (as of 6/23/21, the date of purchase, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2021 was $1.2; $1.32 for 2022 and $1.41 for 2023. E.P.S. was $1.31 in 2020 according to MarketWatch)

Investment Strategy: Bond Substitute. When so categorized, victory is defined as an annual total return of 2%+ on the shares + the dividends. 

So for ORAN, that would mean harvesting at least 2 semi-annual dividend payments and then selling the stock at $11.86+.  

Orange is a telecommunications services company headquartered in France. 

The $3.48 fee referenced in the previous snapshot is a transaction tax imposed by France on stock purchases.  The stock had declined on the day that I purchased this 100 share lot.  

Closing Price 6/23/21: ORAN $11.60 -$0.21 -1.78% (decline of $21 for 100 shares more than offset France's tax). 

France does not currently levy a transaction tax on stock sales.  

I also waited until after the semi-annual ex-dividend date. The stock price declined thereafter by more than the per-share dividend amount. Buying the dividend would have created a tax event, a higher tax cost,  and consequently made it less likely to achieve the total return objective for this stock.

Dividend: Semiannually 

Share and consensus | Orange 

The last dividend was €.50 which included a special dividend of €.20 "linked to the French Council of State’s favorable decision in the matter of a long-running tax dispute". Excluding the special dividend, ORAN's last two dividend payments totaled €.70 per share. For 2021, the Board is proposing a €.7 per share payout spread over two payments.  

France will collect a 15% tax on the dividend payment made to a U.S. Citizen, which is capped at that rate by a tax treaty. If a broker does not claim this treaty rate "at the source", then France will collect more than 15%, as if there was no tax treaty at all capping the tax rate. 

Ultimately, the yield after France's tax will depend on the then current EUR/USD exchange rate and the ability to recover the tax through a federal tax credit. If I assumed a constant 1.19 EUR/USD exchange rate and full recovery of France's tax via a U.S. tax credit, the yield at a TC of US$11.6 would be 7.18% (€.7 per share x. 1.19 = US$.833 ÷ $11.6 total cost per share = 7.18%)

 Convert 1 Euro to US Dollar 

France owns 23% of the shares. 

Last Ex Dividend: 6/15/21 (shortly before purchase)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release Orange reports revenues, EBITDA and cash flow every quarter, but only reports earnings semiannually after the 2nd and 4th quarters.  For the 1st quarter, revenues were reported at €10.3B, up less than 1% Y-O-Y and a .3% decline in EBITDA (after leases) to €2.585B. 

In 2020, earnings were reported at €4.8B or €1.71 per share. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (5/24/21): 4 stars with a FV of US$16.8, downgraded the moat rating to no moat and reduced the FV from US$18.  

Argus (7/1/21): Buy with a US$15 PT. The analyst expects that ORAN will increase roaming revenue as travel restrictions are lifted. 

S & P (4/26/21): 5 stars with a US$14 PT. The analyst's E.P.S. estimate for 2021 is at €1.12 and at €1.15 next year.   

Maximum Position: 200 shares

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

2. Corelogic Bond Redemption: LT Gain = $1,696.18

Fidelity Taxable 

Vanguard Taxable

This bond was a 7.55% senior unsecured bond that would have matured on 7/1/2028. CoreLogic was originally part of First American. First American Completes CoreLogic Spin-Off - HousingWire

I bought 2 bonds as part of my junk bond ladder strategy in 2011-2012. Item # 3 Bought 1 CoreLogic 7.55% SU Bond Maturing in 2028 at 94.975 (4/29/11 Post); Item # 1 Bought 1 CoreLogic 7.55% Senior Bond Maturing 4/1/2028 at 84.95 (2/22/12 Post) I realized a $964.13 gain from those 2 bonds: 

$964.13

I inherited 2 more that I bought for my mother at about the same price. The later 2 bonds have a stepped up cost basis that resulted in a $732.05 profit:   

+$732.05

I also realized  in profits from the Trust Certificate PJS, now redeemed by the owner of the call warrant, that had this bond as its underlying security. I realized a $2,291.52 total gain trading PJS (snapshot in Trust Certificates: New Gateway Post) 

Total Profit First American/CoreLogic 7.55% = $3,987.70 

The make-whole payment was $389.69 per bond or about 5.16 years of future interest payments. 

3. Small Ball:

A. Added 5 CAG at $35.67 in Fidelity Taxable: 

Quote: Conagra Brands, Inc.

CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Brands | Conagra Brands

CAG SEC Filings

Annual Report for the F/Y Ending in May 2020 

Post Holdings and Conagra Brands Announce Completion of Post's Acquisition of Peter Pan Peanut Butter from CAG 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Bought 5 CAG at $36.19-Fidelity Taxable (4/30/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. 

The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 7/13/21. Fidelity has the consensus E.P.S. estimate at $.519.

Average Cost this Account: $35.93 (10 shares)

Investment Categories: Primarily Bond Substitute/Secondarily Dividend Growth

Dividend: Quarterly at $.275 per share ($1.1 annually), last raised from $.2125 (+29.4%) effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. 

There is dividend growth. Dividend Information | Conagra Brands

Yield at $35.93 = 3.06%

Last Ex Dividend: 4/29/21

5 Year Chart as of 7/2/21: About where it was five years ago. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

S & P (6/27/21): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $41. I would sell at that price. The analyst claims that CAG has innovated more than "every other large packaged over the last few years" and has used its stronger cash flow during the main pandemic period to pay down debt, buy back shares and increase its dividend. 

Morningstar (4/11/21): 4 stars with a fair value of $42. The analyst claims that CAG has improved its growth and profit margins and has "reshaped its portfolio toward faster growing categories" 

Credit Suisse (4/8/21): Underperform with at $34 PT. 

Conagra is scheduled to release its next earnings report, which will be for its 4th fiscal quarter, next Tuesday. I will discuss it in a comment to this post.  The consensus E.P.S. estimate is $.52. 

B. Started CAG in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 5 at $35.75: 

See Item # 1.A. Above.

C. Bought 1 KC at $33.13; 1 at $29.9; 1 at $27.48:

Quote: Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)

AC per share = $30.17 (3 shares)

This stock has been hammered recently due to China's increased regulatory scrutiny of its technology companies. The most recent crackdown appears directed at companies who have direct relationships with individual consumers. KC's customers appear to be businesses based on my reading of its annual report. 

KC is in its words "a leading independent and internet cloud service provider in China" that has "built a comprehensive and reliable cloud platform consisting of extensive cloud infrastructure, cutting-edge cloud products and well-architected industry-specific solutions across public cloud, enterprise cloud and IoT cloud services, based on which we have achieved a leading position in the cloud market in China."    

KC Analyst Estimates

SEC Filings

Form 20-F-2020 Annual Report for Foreign Company

One Year Chart through 7/8/21: 

3 Year Financials: Rapidly accelerating revenues with significant losses

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Previous Round-Trip: Item # 1.F. Eliminated KC: Sold 2 in Schwab Account-at  $52.2 and  3 at $69.21 in Fidelity Taxable (2/20/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $159.03)-Item # 1.J. Started KC-Bought 1 $32.25; 1 at $30 1 at $28.45  (10/24/20 Post) 

Last Loss Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

Since Chinese companies can be destroyed by the whims of 1 guy, there is considerable risk to owning any of them IMO. 

Given the recent fiasco in the DiDi Global Inc. IPO, Kyle Bass is making some good points about companies based in China being allowed to sell stock to U.S. Investors. China's Didi crackdown is a 'big F-U' to America, Kyle Bass says 

Some well known investors are shunning China's stock market now. 

D. Added to MTB-Bought 1 at $146.9: 

Quote: M&T Bank Corp.

Regional bank stocks have been hammered recently due primarily IMO to the interest rate decline and secondarily to renewed concerns about Covid.   

MTB Analyst Estimates

MTB SEC Filings

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Bought 1 MTB at $152.4; 1 at $150-Schwab Taxable Account (4/24/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. As noted in that post, I own PBCT in that account which is being acquired by MTB in an all stock transaction. M&T Bank Corporation Announces Agreement to Acquire People's United Financial, Inc. (PBCT) My intention is to keep the PBCT shares in this account at least until I receive the MBT shares in exchange. I will continue to add to MBT in the meantime provided each purchase is at the lowest price in the chain. 

I have eliminated my PBCT shares in all other accounts except for a small position held in my Fidelity taxable account. Item # 1.H. Multiple Small Ball PBCT Purchases (Fidelity Account with an Average Cost Per share of $10.42 (10/24/20 Post)   

E. Pared MAXN in 3 of my taxable Accounts by selling highest cost lots: Sold 2 at 20.1 in Vanguard account; 5 at $20.38 in Schwab account; and 10 at $20.6 in Fidelity account: 

Quote: Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd.

Website: Home | Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

MAXN is interesting as a long term play on solar energy deployment. I may not be around when and if MAXN's profit potential is realized and consequently I will trade the stock using the small ball trading rules.  

MAXN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 6/24/21, the average 2021 E.P.S. estimate was at -$3.88) 

SEC Filings (foreign issuer SEC forms)

2020 Annual Report Products are described starting at page 46. 

Maxeon Investor Presentation June 2021 (PDF)

1 Year Chart as of 7/8/21: 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 5 MAXN at $19.2; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.3; 5 at $15.73-Scwhab Taxable Account (5/8/21 Post) The highest cost bought at $19.2 was the one sold. 

I view this stock as speculative and will play it very tight using the small ball trading rules. 

The price movements have been volatile, including on 6/24/21 when I pared my small ball positions. 

Closing Price 6/24/21: MAXN $20.26 $1.46 +$7.77% (low at $19.20, high of $21.35 or a 11.2% Intraday spread; volume at 2.331+M shares vs. 927.79K average)

Profit Snapshots: +$10.07

Remaining Shares these accounts:  

Vanguard: 14 shares with a $17.4 average cost per share

Schwab: 15 shares with a $17.1 average cost per share-Snapshot Intraday on 6/24 

Schwab Remaining Lot Details

Fidelity: 15 shares with an AC per share of  $16.54-Snapshot Intraday 6/24

News Since Last Discussion: Maxeon Solar Technologies to Supply High-Efficiency Solar Panels for Primergy's GW-Scale Gemini Project - May 20, 2021; Maxeon Solar Technologies Transforms the New Logistics Hub of a Global Luxury Group into a 12.7-Megawatt Solar Powerhouse - Jun 4, 2021; Courant Naturel Picks Maxeon 5 AC as Its Sole Residential Solar Technology in France-6/17/21; Maxeon Solar Technologies Provides Premium Commercial Solar to Betty Barclay Group Headquarters in Germany - Jun 28, 2021 

Last Loss Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

Loss of $1.14 per share, down from -$1.49 in the 2020 first quarter 

Maxeon 1Q 2021 Earnings Supplemental Slides (PDF)

F. Eliminated AKBA again-Sold 15 at $4.17: 

Quote: Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.

Stock Information as of 7/8/21: 

Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket

Last Discussed: Item # 1.O. Eliminated AKBA in Schwab Account-Sold 15 at $4.21 (2/13/21 Post)(profit snapshot = +$19.75) 

Profit Snapshot: $29.05

Item  # 2.I. Bought 10 AKBA at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at $2.9 (12/25/20 Post)(last substantive discussion); Item # 1.O. Added to AKBA-Bought 5 at $2.8 (1/16/21 Post)

For a long time, AKBA has been in a growth mode, but the growth is in losses and the share count:

Page 103, 2020 Annual Report

AKBA did acquire some product revenue through its acquisition of Keryx Pharmaceuticals and its FDA approved drug Aurysia. Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals to Merge, Creating a Fully Integrated Company Focused on the Development and Commercialization of Therapeutics for Patients with Kidney Disease 

Collaboration revenues are related to AKBA's Vadadustat, an "oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase (HIF-PH) inhibitor designed to mimic the physiologic effect of altitude on oxygen availability. At higher altitudes, the body responds to lower oxygen availability with stabilization of hypoxia-inducible factor, which can lead to increased red blood cell production and improved oxygen delivery to tissues. Vadadustat recently completed its global Phase 3 development program for the treatment of anemia due to CKD. Vadadustat is not approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or any other regulatory authority with the exception of Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW). In Japan, vadadustat is approved as a treatment for anemia due to CKD in both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients." Note that AKBA raised cash by selling rights to receive royalties from this collaboration. (see 2nd paragraph for terms: Akebia Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Financial Results and Provides Business Updates | Akebia Therapeutics)  

The FDA has accepted a new drug application for Vadadustat as a treatment for both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients. Akebia and Otsuka Announce FDA Acceptance for Filing of New Drug Application for Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients on Dialysis and Not on Dialysis 

AKBA shares were hammered last year when there were some questions raised about the safety of Vadadustat. Akebia stumbles and clouds the prospects of anemia pills | BioPharma Dive  If this drug is not approved by the FDA, AKBA shares will plummet again. I do not see another drug in its pipeline. 

New England Journal of Medicine Publishes Results of Global Phase 3 Clinical Program of Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease

5 Year Chart: 

Last Loss Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release   

Prior Round-Trips: Item # 2.B. Sold 105 AKBA at $6.35 (1/2/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)

AKBA Realized Gains to Date: +$365.49

I am not likely to buy shares again. Possibly, I would consider buying another tiny Lotto position (approximately an average blackjack bet), when and if the shares sink below $3 with no adverse decision from the FDA causing that decline. 

G. Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 12.468 at $29.07: 

Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)

SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Discussions: Item # 1.P. Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5.891 at $30.47  (3/20/21 Post); Item #1.B. Continued Paring FHB in my Fidelity Taxable Account- Sold 5 at $28.61 (3/13/21 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: $51.22 (6/25/21 sale only)

AC Before Pare this account = $19.45

AC After Pare this account = $18.02 (48 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 6/25/21 after pare 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually), last raised from $.24 effective for the 2019 first quarter payment.      

All shares purchased with dividends have been sold. 

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off.  

Yield at new AC of $18.02: 5.77%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Declares Dividend 

E.P.S. at $.44 with consensus at $.443 according to Fidelity; 

net income at $57.7M; 

NIM at 2.55% compared to 2.71% in the 2020 4th quarter; 

efficiency ratio at 55.5%; 

Charge off ratio = .14%; 

NPL Ratio = .07%; 

NPA Ratio = .07%; 

ROA = 1.02%; 

ROE= 8.58%;  

ROTE = 13.51%; 

Tangible book value per share = $13.01; 

Total capital ratio = 14.07% 

FHB Realized Gains to Date: $318.58

As with other stocks where I have sold the highest cost lots, most of my gains in FHB, owned in multiple accounts, are unrealized. I own 52+ shares in my Schwab taxable account with an AC of $19.47 per share. Item 1.A. Pared FHB in Schwab Account: Sold 40 at $29.65;  5 at $30.81 and Item #1.B. Pared 10 FHB in Fidelity Account at $29.65 and 10 at $30.02 (2/12/20 Post)

H. Started VMEO-Bought 1 at $45.2; 1 at $44.5; 1 at $43.8; $20 at $43.36; 1 at $41.77: 

This is me being a wild and crazy guy.  

Quote: Vimeo Inc. (200M users; 1.6M paid subscribers; 190 countries)

The company says it is "the world's leading all-in-one video software solution" whose "platform enables any professional, team, and organization to unlock the power of video to create, collaborate and communicate". 

Investors | Vimeo.com, Inc.

May Monthly Metrics.pdf:

This company was recently spun out of IAC: IAC Completes Spin-Off Of Vimeo (5/25/21)

Vimeo Stock: Can It Stream Profits for Investors?

Vimeo Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

VMEO SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket 

Current Position: 4+ shares with an AC of $43.77

Last Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

I. Eliminated GSK in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 8 at $40: 

Quotes:  

USD Priced: GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR

British Pence: GlaxoSmithKline PLC (U.K.: London

1 ADR Ratio = 2 ordinary

GBP / USD Currency Chart. British Pound to US Dollar Rates

SEC Filings (foreign issuer)

Investors | GSK

Products | GSK

Our pipeline | GSK

GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

GlaxoSmithKline PLC Profile-Reuters

Profit Snapshot: +$34.8 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Started GSK in Schwab Account-Bought 5 at $36.36; 5 at $36.13 (1/16/21 Post) 

I do not have a favorable opinion about GSK. Its drug discovery efforts are IMO unsatisfactory. This failure has led to an underperforming stock.  

I will nonetheless buy this stock at what I view as a favorable price which improves its attraction as a bond substitute. 

Since GSK will be reducing its dividend next year after it spins off its consumer products division, the stock will become more undesirable until there is considerable improvement in GSK's internal drug discovery that leads to marketable products. GlaxoSmithKline to Spin Off Consumer Division, Cut Dividend - TheStreet  GSK will retain a 20% ownership and will receive up to a £8B special dividend. The targeted dividend will go from 80 pence per share to 55 pence in 2022 (44 pence for GSK and 11 pence for the consumer products company)

See, GSK Response to Elliott Advisors letter to GSK; Elliott Publishes Letter on GlaxoSmithKline

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filing 

"Adjusted EPS was 22.9p compared with 37.7p in Q1 2020, down 39% AER and 33% CER, on a 23% CER decrease in Adjusted operating profit reflecting the impact of sales decline across all three businesses as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest costs and a higher effective tax rate partly offset by a lower non-controlling interest allocation of Consumer Healthcare and ViiV profits." (emphasis added)

GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Glaxo's (GSK) Q1 Earnings In Line, Sales Hit by COVID-19 - April 29, 2021 - Zacks.com

Other Recent news: GSK announces sale of stake in Innoviva Inc. (5/20/21) (GSK sold its 32M shares back to Innoviva at $12.25 or approximately $392M; GSK will still pay Innoviva royalties on Treley, Ellipta, Revlar, Anoro Ellipta, and Breo Ellipta. Innoviva Inc. (INVA) 

Alector and GSK announce global collaboration in immunology (2 clinical stage monoclonal antibodies)(GSK will pay Alector Inc $700M upfront and up to $1.5B in milestone payments, profit sharing and royalties, and see Alector Reports 2021 First Quarter Financial Results and Provides Business Update) 

Acquisitions: As with Pfizer, growth has come from expensive acquisitions and collaborations with companies who discover compounds. The largest GSK acquisition to date was  the $75.7B in stock paid for SmithKline in 2000. 

Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (6/23/21): 4 stars with a fair value of $48

Argus (7/2/21): Buy, increases PT to $45 from $42. 

S & P (4/30/21): 3 stars with a PT of $38 

The Morningstar and Argus analysts express optimism that GSK will be able to grow after the consumer product company spin off. Growth through expensive acquisitions and collaboration agreements with drug discovers frequently do not result in better share performance since the ultimate cost outweighs the benefits. 

J. Eliminated GSK in Schwab Taxable-Sold 13+ at $40.06: 

See Item # 3.I. Above. 

Profit Snapshot: $53.36

I am down to a 8 share position in my Fidelity taxable account with an AC of  $35.65 per share. I will keep these shares that will likely cause me to pay attention regarding future developments.  I will consider buying shares at less than $33.5 in that account.    

Fidelity Account Position-Price Intraday on 7/6/21: 

K. Sold 1+ Shares QDEL at $125.09: 

Quote: Quidel Corp. 

QDEL "is a leading manufacturer of diagnostic solutions at the point of care, delivering a continuum of rapid testing technologies that further improve the quality of health care throughout the globe. . . . Quidel pioneered the first FDA-cleared point-of-care test for influenza in 1999 and was the first to market a rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen test in the U.S. Under trusted brand names Sofia®, Solana®, Lyra®, Triage® and QuickVue®, Quidel’s comprehensive product portfolio includes tests for a wide range of infectious diseases, cardiac and autoimmune biomarkers, as well as a host of products to detect COVID-19." 

Negative News Item: Quidel Recalls Lyra SARS-CoV-2 Assay (M120) Due to Risk of False Negative Results | FDA  

QDEL Analyst Estimates  

QDEL SEC Filings 

Website: Quidel - Immunoassays & Molecular Diagnostics 

Molecular Diagnostics & Point of Care Testing | Quidel

Immunoassays | For Disease Detection and Diagnosis | Quidel

Cell Culture, Cell Lines and Fluorescent Antibody Tests | Quidel

Earnings are expected to fall off substantially from 2020 levels due to less Covid testing. The consensus E.P.S estimate for 2023 is currently at $3.53 compared to the 2020 actual $18.60 diluted E.P.S.  2020 Annual Report at p. 34 The reported diluted E.P.S. was $1.73 in 2019. 

Profit Snapshot: +$14.08 

I have decided to wait for a major price decline before buying. I doubt the Stock Jocks will like the Y-O-Y comparisons going forward. Overall, I have a favorable impression of Quidel's technology. The cash infusion bonanza over the past year will provide funds for further research and development. The company had $981.052M in cash and cash equivalents as of 3/31/21. 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 at page 3 There was then no long term debt. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release This will likely be the last favorable Y-O-Y quarter for a while. 

GAAP E.P.S. = $4.09, up from $.93 in the 2020 first quarter

Non-GAAP E.P.S.  = $4.38 (diluted), up from $1.22 in the 2020 first quarter

Revenues: Up 115% to $375.3M

Page 20, 10-Q

Quidel Shares Plunge On Lower Than Expected Q1 Outlook | Benzinga

Quidel would be a major beneficiary when and if the Covid infection, hospitalizations and deaths return to pandemic levels.  

L. Sold 1 SPLK at $143.4-highest cost lot: 

Quote: Splunk Inc.

SPLK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SPLK SEC Filings

Annual Report F/Y ending 1/31/21

Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket  

Profit Snapshot: +$10.44 

I sold this lot: Item # 1.P. Bought 1 SPLK at $132.95 (4/9/21 Post)

Average cost per share before pare: $125.74

Average cost per share after pare: $121.55

Snapshot Intraday 7/6/21 after pare 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Multiple Small Dollar Buys in Splunk (5/23/21 Post) 

Sentiment was negative when I first purchased this stock on 3/26 at $132.95. The negativity continued through my last small ball add on 5/12/21 at $113.39. Sentiment changed to positive in response to a 6/22 announcement that Silver Lake invested $1B in Splunk's convertible senior notes. Splunk Announces $1 Billion Investment from Silver Lake SPLK closed at $125.49 on 6/21 and at $139.61 the next day. 

A substantial loss was reported for the Q/E 4/30/21. SEC Filed Press Release

The company does not mention the loss in its summary: 

The loss is referenced in its financial statement: 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. The current lowest price is $113.29. 

M. DTE Early Optional Redemption: 

Make Whole Payment 1 bond = $23.3

Profit Snapshot: +$26.44 

Issuer: DTE Energy Co. (DTE)- Utility Holding Company  

Ginger wants to make 68 "corrections" in this post. I view all of them to be incorrect suggestions. Ginger Software | English Grammar & Writing App 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.