Saturday, March 13, 2021

AHTPRI, BRGPRA, EBIX, FHB, FHN, FNB, FSMEX, FTS, NOMD, NTB, PBCT, RNRG, STWD, SWZ

Economy:  

'Significant' scarring will limit pent-up consumer demand: Stephen Roach

Biden stimulus will give a major boost to the global recovery, OECD says - MarketWatch referencing this OECD publication: OECD Economic Outlook



The stimulus money isn’t going to be spent, Bank of America says, so here are the investment moves to make - MarketWatch The headline does not properly reflect BAC's conclusion. Some stimulus money will immediately be spent but possibly close to 50% will be saved or used to pay down debt. I would note that paying down high interest credit card debt makes sense as a temporary measure. It is not like spending borrowed money will stop after those pay downs.  

Seasonally Adjusted CPI for February: Up .4%; Core Up .1%. 

Unadjusted 12 months: +1.7%; Core at 1.3%. 

Sourced: Consumer Price Index Summary

Inflation pressure is coming from commodity price increases. Core inflation, which excludes energy, remains subdued. This report relieved some concerns about the FED ending ZIRP later this year. 

New Stimulus Package Brings Big Benefits to the Middle Class - The New York Times The Tax Policy Center concluded that "middle-income families, those making $51,000 to $91,000 per year, will see their after-tax income rise by 5.5 percent". T21-0039 – Major Individual Income Tax Provisions in H.R.1319, The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 as Passed by the Senate, by Expanded Cash Income Percentile, 2021 | Tax Policy Center Every republican, as expected, voted against this measure. Instead, the republican senators introduced a bill to eliminate the estate tax paid by only the super wealthy. Republicans Mock Rescue Plan While Pushing A Tax Cut For The Richest  

Biden signs $1.9 trillion relief bill

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Markets and Market Commentary

Investors haven't grasped inflation is dead ahead, Mark Zandi warns

Discovery, AMC Networks heavily shorted, huge 2021 gainers

Nasdaq rebound will unravel, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel warns

Inflation rebound means ’40-year bull market in bonds is over,’ says Bofa - MarketWatch The last long term bear market in bonds started around 1950 and ended in 1982. 

This article published yesterday makes the same valuation argument that I have been making in comments. Big Pharma Battled the Pandemic. The Stocks Are Cheap. | Barron's Of the large cap drug stocks mentioned therein, I currently own ABBV, AMGN, BMY,  MRK and PFE. 

Earnings Reports from owned stocks

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Announces 2020 Financial Results Including Fourth Quarter Net Investment Income of $0.35 Per Share; Declares First Quarter Dividend of $0.30 Per Share; 35 Consecutive Quarters of Dividend Coverage 

CubeSmart (CUBE) Reports 2020 Annual Results (FFO per share = $.47; same-store at quarter's end was at 93.4%; raised quarterly dividend by 1 cent per share to $.34 effective for the 2021 first quarter; sold during quarter $450M of 2% SU notes maturing in 2031 with proceeds used to redeem $250M in 4.8% SU notes maturing in 2022. In addition to a position in the common stock, I also own 2 CUBE 4% SU notes maturing in 2025 bought at less than par value)

Fidus Investment Corporation (FDUS) Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results (NII per share reported at $.25; adjusted to $.44 per share by ignoring accrued capital gains incentive fee of $.19; net asset value per share at $16.81; "estimated spillover income (or taxable income in excess of distributions) as of December 31, 2020 of $22.0 million, or $0.90 per share"

New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) Announces Financial Results for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2020 (NII per share =$.30; NAV per share = $12.62, up from $12.24 as of 9/30/20; Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $.30 per share)

Pembina Pipeline (PBA) Corporation Reports Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 (adjusted cash flow per share = $C1.10, dividends paid during quarter = C$.63; 4th quarter revenue = C$1.694B)  

Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results (4th quarter normalized FFO per share = $.26; "collected 99.3% of January rent, including 100% collection of amounts due under a deferred agreement"; "collected 99.6% of fourth quarter rent as of February 22, 2021")

Rent-A-Center, Inc. (RCII) Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Results (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $1.03, up from $.58 in the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $1.017 according to Fidelity; 2021 guidance non-GAAP E.P.S. of $5 to $5.55)

Salesforce (CRM) Announces Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2021 Results Raises FY22 Revenue Guidance to $25.65 Billion to $25.75 Billion (GAAP diluted E.P.S. at $.28 and at $4.38 for the F/Y ending 1/31/21 both benefiting significantly from mark to market accounting for strategic investments; "fourth quarter revenue was $5.82 billion, an increase of 20% year-over-year, and 19% in constant currency"; "Cash generated from operations for the fourth quarter was $2.17 billion, an increase of 33% year-over-year. Total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities ended the fourth quarter at $11.97 billion. Cash generated from operations for fiscal 2021 was $4.8 billion, an increase of 11% year-over-year."; guides F/Y 2022 to non-GAAP operating margin  of 17.7%, GAAP E.P.S. loss of $.42 to $.44, Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $3.39 to 3.41 and revenues of $25.65B to $25.75B) 

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DropBox CEO on DocSend acquisition and future of cloud storage for $165MDropbox to Acquire DocSend 

Closing Price 3/12/21: DBX $27.06 +$1.61 +6.33% 

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GOP praises Trump after he urges Republican donors to send money directly to him Donald's PAC has few restrictions on how he can use those funds. Never Give a Sucker an Even Break (1941) - IMDb

Trump's acting Defense Secretary says his January 6 speech incited Capitol rioters 

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1. Small Ball

Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.) 

Small Ball Rules:

(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share; 

(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;

(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;

(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved: 

The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield.  

Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. 

The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines. 

I am using this strategy now since it is the only way that I will participate in the stock market. 

I do not need to take any risks and view equity risks as elevated at current market levels. I am receiving, as is, enough upside action with my limited stock exposure. More excitement may generate a heart attack. 

I have decided to continue with a small stock allocation since there are no decent alternatives given the abnormally low interest rates.    

The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure.

When successfully implemented, this trading system will leave me (1) with the largest gain to be realized, if at all, as the last trade and (2) the highest dividend yield since the onset of the relevant stock's "buy program". 

Examples are provided below involving the regional bank stocks FHB, FHN and FNB. I have now successfully sold the shares bought before last March's meltdown. 

A. Pared Highest Cost FHN Lots-Sold 50 at $16.3; 5 at $16.87



Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings 
2020 Annual Report

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Average cost before pare = $12.62

Average cost after pare = $9.32 (53+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/2/21 after second pare

Profit Snapshot: +$26.93 (2/19 and 3/2 only)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share, last raised from $.14 effective for the 2019 first quarter.

FHN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $9.32 = 6.44%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/11/21  (after pares)

Remaining Share Lot Details: Unrealized gain = $448.61  



Dividend investment has now been turned off. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.H. Added 5 FHN at $8.56; 5 at $7.7; 1 at $7.41 (4/11/20 Post)Item # 2.B. Bought 5 FHN at $14.77; 10 at $13.70; 5 at $12.73; 5 at $11.46; 5 at $10.8; 5 at $10.3 and 5 at  $9.12 (3/14/20 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

"fourth quarter 2020 net income available to common shareholders ("NIAC") of $234 million, or earnings per share of $0.42, compared with third quarter 2020 NIAC of $523 million, or earnings per share of $0.95. Fourth quarter 2020 results were reduced by a net $20 million after-tax, or $0.04 per share, of notable items largely related to the IBERIABANK Corporation Merger ("IBKC Merger") compared with a net $331 million after-tax benefit, or $0.60 per share, in third quarter 2020. Excluding notable items, adjusted fourth quarter NIAC totaled $255 million, or $0.46 per share, compared with $193 million, or $0.35 per share in third quarter 2020."


I also own 20+ FHN shares in my Schwab taxable account with an AC  of $9.49: 

As of 3/5/21 Closing Price

B. Continued Paring FHB in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $28.61


This was my highest cost lot other than a few shares bought with dividends.  



Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Closing Price 3/12/21: FHB $30.25 +$0.64 +2.16% 

Average Cost per share before Pare: $20.49

Average cost after pare = $19.94

Snapshot Intraday on 2/22/21 after pare

Profit Snapshot = +$4.55 (2/22 sell only) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually); last raised from $.24 effective for the 2019 first quarter payment. As I recall, the dividend raise in 2019 was justified based on a lower corporate tax rate.  

Yield at $19.94 = 5.22

Last Ex Dividend: 2/19/21 (sold after)

Unrealized gain at $678.18 as of 3/12 (multiple small lots)

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off.  

Will likely eliminate shares bought with dividends at over $30.5 (8+ shares plus highest cost 10 shares at over $31 with a $26.95 cost basis)

The general idea will be to continue selling into the current rally until I am down to these 33 shares: 




5 Year Chart as of 3/11/20: Meltdown during March 2020

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 


C. Pared FHB in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 55 at $28.62 and 6 at $29.9


See Item # 1.B. above. 

I sold the highest cost lots. 

The 6 share sell consisted of my highest cost lots bought with dividends. Prior to that transaction, the price range for shares bought with dividends was between $16.21 to $28.58. 

For most stocks, I will periodically eliminate shares purchased with dividends when I can do so profitably. 

I do not care about the compounding effect over a long period of time given my age. 

The goal for dividend reinvestment is to earn a total return on shares purchased with dividends greater than the amount of the dividends paid-- with some compounding effect. 

Profit Snapshots: $54.91 and $20.42

Average Cost Per Share before Pares: $23.82 (114+ shares)

Average Cost per share after pares: $19.59  (53+ shares)

Sold after last ex dividend date. Turned off reinvestment due to price. 

Lot Details Remaining Shares this account



Unrealized gains as of 3/12/21: $570.02

Yield at AC 5.31%

FHB Trading Profits+$239.19 This one has been tough, requiring multiple average down buys and willingness to keep it up as the price plummeted last year. 

D. Eliminated EBIX-Sold 4 + at $30


Quote: Ebix, Inc.

Closing Price 3/12/21: EBIX $33.17  +$2.24  +7.24% 

Investment category: Lottery Ticket Basket

EBIX SEC Filings

EBIX Historical Stock Prices

Website: Ebix

EBIX Historical Stock Prices

Profit Snapshot: +$40.05 (2/22/21 sell only): 


The fractional share was purchased with a quarterly dividend payment. 

Buy Discussion: Item # 2.N. Started EBIX-Bought 8 at an AC of $20.72 and Sold  3 at $28.05 (11/13/20 Post) 

Other Sell Discussion: Item # 1.M. Sold 1 EBIX at $53 (1/20/21 Post) 

EBIX suffered a 40% drop on 2/22/21 after the auditor resigned due to  significant disagreements including criticisms of controls in place. The auditor also complained that management would not provide relevant documents. SEC Filing 

EBIX Profits to Date: $91.28 (8+ shares)

I am avoiding this stock until the dust settles. At a minimum, management deserves a failing grade in dealing with this issue before it blew up which indicates a lack of good judgment and common sense.  

E. Pared FNB in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 115 at $12.17 (highest cost lots)


Quote: F.N.B. Corp. 

Closing Price 3/12/21: FNB $13.43 +$0.36 +2.75% 

FNB, headquartered in Pittsburgh, has approximately "350 banking offices throughout Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, D.C. and Virginia."

FNB SEC Filings 

FNB 2020 Annual Report

FNB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/10/21, the consensus 2021 E.P.S. was at $.96 and at $.97 for 2022, which is not what an owner wants to see)   

History this Account: 


Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: +$68.69 


New Average Cost Per Share this account: $7.64 (67+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share 

Dividend History: Extremely Negative. FNB slashed the quarterly rate from $.24 to the current $.12 effective for the 2009 first quarter and has not raised the penny rate since that slash. FNB Dividend History-Dividend Channel

Yield at AC = 6.28%

I do not expect anytime soon a dividend increase. The payout ratio is hovering close to 55%. F N B Corp (FNB) Dividends-Morningstar

Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21

5 Year Historical


2020 Annual Report at page 40 

5 Year Chart as of 3/11/21: 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20)

SEC Filed Press Release Uninspiring. 

2020 4th Quarter: 

Net Income = $70.2M

E.P.S. = $.22

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.28

Efficiency Ratio = 56.52%

NIM = 2.87%  

Tangible Book Value Per Share = $7.81

"loan-to-deposit ratio was 87.4% at December 31, 2020, compared to 89.1% at September 30, 2020."

Some Sell Discussions

Item # 2.C Sold 31 FNB at $12.17 and Item # 2.D Sold 100 FNB at $12.17 (11/2/19 Post)Item # 5.A Sold 20 FNB at $11.42 (9/28/19 Post)Item # 3.A. Sold 30 FNB at $11.95-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post)Item # 1.A. Sold 50 FNB at $13.65-Used Commission Free Trade (9/5/18 Post)Item # 1.D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade (6/18/18 Post)Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59  (3/5/2018);Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)

I do not view FNB to be a quality bank or managed for the benefit of shareholders. 

The acquisition strategy has not resulted in any meaningful benefit to shareholders IMO. 

Sure, net income increased thereby but so did the share count with the end result being no significant improvement in net income per share. 

In 2011, diluted E.P.S. was reported at $.70 per share and at $.85 in 2020, a 21.4% increase over a ten year period with no increase in the dividend.  

Instead, recognizing the bank's many shortcomings, I approach the stock as a trading vehicle. 

My last foray into the stock started at price levels now regarded as too high. 

By successfully selling the highest cost lots, I have reduced my average cost per share to an acceptable level for a longer term hold.  

F. Pared FNB in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $12.95-highest cost lots

See Item I.E. above. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Profit Snapshot: $55.18

Average Cost per Share before pare = $10.44

After Cost per share after pare$8.63 (108+ shares)

As of Close on 3/12/21

Remaining Lot Details-Snapshots after close on 3/12/21:


Unrealized Gain as of 3/12/21: +$519.07


Yield at New AC = 5.56%

FNB Trading Profits to Date:  $1,478.52

I have turned off reinvestment due to valuation and FNB's pathetic dividend history. 

G. Pared PBCT in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 30 at $17.77


Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)

Closing Price 3/12/21: PBCT $18.45 +$0.16  +0.87% 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

PBCT SEC Filings

I sold my highest cost lots. 

Profit Snapshot: +$59.99

Average Cost Per Share before Pare = $13.01

Average Cost after Pare = $11.70 (62+ shares)

Remaining Lot Details


Unrealized Gains as of 3/12/21 : $424.31


Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)

Turned off dividend reinvestment as of 2/22/21 

Last Ex Dividend : 1/29/21 (sold after)

Yield at $11.7 = 6.15%

This pare was in response to M&T Bank Corp. (MBT) agreeing to acquire PBCT. M&T Bank Corporation Announces Agreement to Acquire People's United Financial, Inc. ("Under the terms of the agreement, People's United shareholders will receive 0.118 of a share of M&T common stock for each People's United share they own.")

I discussed this merger in comments to my last post including this one

On the day of the announcement (2/22/21), MTB closed at $155.27, up $5.3 or 3.53%. PBCT rose 14.92% that day. 

Recent Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.H. Multiple Small Ball PBCT Purchases (Fidelity Account with an Average Cost Per share of $10.42 and 1.I. Started PBCT in Vanguard Taxable-Multiple Buys with an Average Cost per share of $10.56  (10/24/20 Post)Item # 1.K. Added to PBCT-Bought 10 at $11.27; 10 at $10.87 (5/23/20 Post)Item # 1.B. Added to PBCT-Bought 3 at $10.58; 5 at $10.41 (9/5/20 Post) Item # 2.C. Added to PBCT - Bought 5 at $12; 5 at $10.72; 5 at $9.72  (4/25/20 Post)

H. Pared PBCT Vanguard-Sold 7 at $18.52 :

See Item I.G. Above: 

Profit Snapshot: +$56.5

PBCT realized gains to Date $677.67

PBCT Average Cost per share for Remaining Shares-Taxable Accounts

Fidelity at $10.4 (20+ shares)

Vanguard at $10.58 (20 shares)

Schwab at $11.7 (62+ shares) 

My current inclination is to sell the remaining shares when and if the price exceeds $19, or slightly lower after a 1+ year holding period to quality for a long term capital gain,  and then wait for a better price to buy MBT.  

I. Added to NOMD-Bought 2 at $25.4; 3 at $24.5; 2 at $23.7; 3 at $23.4




Quote: Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)

Closing Price 3/12/21: NOMD $25.75 -$0.27 -1.04% 

NOMD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Website: Home | Nomad Foods

NOMD SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 1.A. Started NOMD-Bought 5 at $25.85 (2/20/21 Post) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): Nomad Foods Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results 

Adjusted E.P.S. = €.38, up 19% Y-O-Y

Reported E.P.S. = €.32, up 39%  Y-O-Y

Revenues: €658M, up 4.7% Y-O-Y

Organic Revenue Growth: +9.5% Y-O-Y

UBS responded to this report by raising its PT to $30 from $29 and maintaining its buy rating. I do not have access to that report. 

J. Started RNRG-Bought 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.3; 5 at $15.2; 5 at $14.9 





This ETF is in a dive mode given its ownership of several high flyers that are undergoing multiple compression. 

Quote: Global X Renewable Energy Producers ETF Overview 

Closing Price 3/12/21: RNRG $16.05 -$0.12 -0.75% 

Sponsor's website: Renewable Energy Producers ETF

Expense Ratio: .65%

Top Holdings as of 3/10/21


Renewable Energy's Slide May Be a Buying Opportunity | Barron's Most of the stocks owned by clean energy ETFs are overpriced and overhyped IMO. I view RNRG as a trade, buying the dips and paring during the hoped for rips which have not materialized yet.  

My largest individual stock holding in this sector is Transalta Renewables. Item # 2. Bought 100 TRSWF at US$9.89 (6/27/20 Post)(USD priced ordinary shares traded on the U.S. Grey Market); Item # 1 Bought Back 100 RNW:CA at C$11.08 (4/11/20 Post)(ordinary shares traded in Toronto) I still own those shares. Dividends are paid monthly. 

I view vertically integrated electric utilities moving toward more clean power generation as less volatile and those stocks have dividend support. 

K. Added to FTS-Bought 5 at $39.25; 5 at $38.71


Quote: Fortis Inc.-USD price shares

Closing Price 3/12/21: FTS $42.05 +$0.49 +1.18% 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.A. Started FTS-Bought 5 at $40.25 (1/30/21 Post) 

Average Cost Per Share = $39.4

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.505, last raised from C$.4775 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment

2020 Dividends Converted into USDs = $1.45

I also own FTS in Roth IRA accounts where the dividend payments are not subject to the 15% Canadian withholding tax. That restriction is the result of the U.S.-Canada tax treaty. FTS is a regular corporation taxed by Canada at the corporate level. 

For payments made by pass through Canadian entities  (e.g. REITs) into a U.S. citizen's retirement account, however, Canada will tax the distribution. 

Yield at AC3.68% based on assumptions  (assumes 2020 USD equivalent payment remaining static at $1.45; actual yield will fluctuate with the CAD/USD conversion rate and increases in the CAD penny rate)

Last Ex Dividend: 2/12/21

Fortis Inc. Announces First Quarter Dividends 

Next Ex Dividend: 5/14/21 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release 

Results reported in CADs: 

Outlook: 

I also own 150 shares of FTS-PM.TOItem # 2.B. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post)Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post)Item # 2. A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$17.55 (11/23/19 Post)

L. Started FSMEX-Bought $300 in 3 $100 Orders


Quote: 
FSMEX | Fidelity Select Medical Technology and Devices Portfolio Overview 

This mutual fund has been running with the growth stocks. 

AC = $75.21

Expense Ratio: .71% 

Fidelity® Select Medical Tech and Devices (FSMEX)-Morningstar: Rated 5 stars. 

FSMEX Portfolio | Morningstar Of the top 10 holdings, I own only HOLX and have only recently started a small ball "buying program" in that one. 

A ETF for this sector is the iShares US Medical Devices ETF (IHI), currently rated 5 stars by Morningstar. Through 3/12/21, IHI's ten year average annual total return was 18.34% compared to 18.47% for FSMEX. Over the past 5 years, FSMEX has an annual average total return of 23% compared to IHI at 22.34%. I am more likely to hold a mutual fund longer than an ETF. The mutual fund manager is not really adding much value compared to the dumb ETF. I do own IHI, but have not discussed that one here.    

My usual caveat that the past may not be prologue for the future holds. This  sector has been hot but has cooled off this year. 

M. Pared NTB-Sold 1 at $36.3


Quote: Bank of Butterfield Ltd.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Closing Price 3/12/21: NTB $40.50 +$1.39  +3.55% 

Profit Snapshot: +$10.5 (2/25/ sell only)

Average Cost After Pare: $24.37 (18+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 2/25 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share $1.76 annually)

Yield at New AC = 7.22%

Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem # 1.F. Started NTB-Bought 1 at $27.23; 9 at $26.9; 2 at $26.38; 1 at $25.79; 2 at $25.54; 5 at $25.2; 2 at $24.9; 2 at $24.7 (9/12/2020 Post)

Other Buy DiscussionItem # 1.F. Added to NTB-Bought 2 at $23.15; 1 at $22; 1 at $21.9; 1 at $21.6 (10/10/20 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): Bank of Butterfield (NTB) Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results

E.P.S. of $.84 with core E.P.S. at $.86; consensus at $.73 according to Fidelity 

Board approves stock buyback of up to 2 million shares;

2020 core E.P.S. at $3.04; 

4th quarter: ROE at 16.9%, ROTE = 19%(excellent);

core efficiency = 65.6% (too high IMO);

NIM = 2.25% (too low IMO);

NPA Ratio = .6% (Okay);

Coverage Ratio = 47% (prefer 100%+ when initiating position);

Total capital ratio = 19.8% (good);

Tangible book value per share = $19.88

N. Pared STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 7 at $23.74:

Quote: Starwood Property Trust Inc.  (STWD)

Closing Price 3/12/21: STWD $24.39 +$0.43 +1.79% 

SEC Filings

I discussed STWD in my last post. Items 2.C., 2.D. and 2.E (3/6/21 Post) 

This transaction cleared out my highest cost lots bought with dividends. 

Profit Snapshot =  (net at +$14.56, 3/8/21 sell only)


I am not supposed to sell shares bought with dividends at a loss. I had a brain malfunction in selecting two lots, noted in red above that resulted in a $.87 loss. 

AC Before Pare = $16.46

AC After Pare: $15.56 (40+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/8/21 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)

Starwood Property Trust Announces $0.48 Per Share Dividend for First Quarter 2021

Yield at New AC = 12.34%

Next Ex Dividend: 3/30/21

O. Averaged UP SWZ-Bought 3 at $8.83

Quote: Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. Overview - a CEF

New Average Cost Per Share = $7.64 (110+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday 3/11/21 after add

Yield at AC = 7.33% (assumes managed quarterly distribution of $.14 per share)  

Last DiscussedItem # 2 Bought 100 SWZ at $7.92.(7/18/20 Post) 

Sponsor's Website: SWZ Fund - Schroders

SEC Filings 

SEC Filed 2020 Annual Report 

"On November 20, 2018, the Fund accepted for cash purchase 24,638,918 shares of the Fund’s common stock at a price equal to $7.86 per share, which represented 98% of the Fund’s NAV per share of $8.02 as of the close of the regular trading session of the New York Stock Exchange on November 19, 2018."

Dividends: Quarterly under a managed distribution plan. The fund paid an unusually large share dividend in 2018. The Swiss Helvetia Fund, Inc. Announces Details Of Stock Dividend Payable On October 19, 2018

Top Ten Holdings as of 2/28/21

Data Date of 3/11 Trade:

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $10.25

Closing Market Price: $8.88

Discount: -13.37%

Sourced: SWZ CEF Connect 

Discount to NAV per share using AC = -25.46%

2. REIT Equity Preferred Stocks:  

Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stock, a subcategory of  Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

A. Eliminated the Troublesome AHTPRI-Sold 50 at $20.95

Profit Snapshot: +$22.62


Quote: AHT-PI 

Issuer: Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc (AHT) 

AHT SEC Filings 

SEC Filed 2020 4th Quarter Results 

I was concerned last year that AHT would collapse, making this preferred stock worthless.  

The hotel REIT Hersha Hospitality recently announced that it would pay the quarterly preferred stock dividend that had been in deferral. Hersha Hospitality Trust Provides Operational Update ("The Company announced its Board of Trustees has declared cash dividends on the Company's Series C, Series D and Series E cumulative redeemable preferred stock reflecting accrued and unpaid dividends for the dividend periods ended April 15, 2020, July 15, 2020, October 15, 2020 and January 15, 2021. The Company will pay a cash dividend of $1.7188 per Series C Preferred Share, $1.625 per Series D Preferred Share, and $1.625 per Series E Preferred Share. These preferred share dividends are payable March 26, 2021 to holders of record as of March 19, 2021.")

B. BRGPRA- Issuer Full Call at $25 par value

8.25% coupon

I lost more shares last year to 2 partial redemptions. 

Profit Snapshots: $262.48 (40 Shares)





DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.

37 comments:

  1. Roach thinks the rest of the year will be uptrend in customer pent up spending. But then that some of that's built in already. And there will be a taper that will stun the market a bit.

    Zandi expects purely pent up spending. And that to equal inflation.

    Somewhere in there, there's the point that it depends whether there's excess supply. If so there won't be so much inflation.

    They both seem overly worried to me on those points. Spending will beget more consumer spending. Inflation could happen. What's here now isn't it.

    But I keep feeling like there's a down pressure catalyst around, but no one's pointed it out yet. But until I can name it, I can't do much about it.

    There's not enough to worry about (except valuations) and the concept goes that when it feels very comfortable, is when it's first reaching a point for real worry.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Globalization has been a major deflationary force since products and services can be purchased from the cheapest sources and the supply network is worldwide. That long term secular restraint on U.S. inflation is more important than temporary fluctuations in U.S. consumer demand IMO.

      The more important question is whether the trade globalization trend that gained impetus with Bretton Woods agreement (1944) will start to roll back as the U.S. loses interest in promoting and protecting it.

      A growing longer term negative inflationary impact involves demographic changes resulting from an aging population who spend less (and who will be withdrawing their cash from the financial system).

      There will likely be more commodity inflation this year, based on rapidly increased demand, which could cause a spike in CPI over a 2% annual rate.

      I do not view an annual average 2% rate over the next 10 years to be, taken in isolation, a headwind for stocks, but more of a goldilocks scenario.

      Investors are signalling that a continued rise in intermediate and longer term interest rates will cause a revaluation of high multiple growth stocks and a reallocation into value stocks that are more sensitive to economic cycles. Those sectors would include financials, U.S. U.S. small caps, energy, materials, and industrials. Those sectors have already moved up strongly.

      KRE, for example, was up 36.86% YTD through last Friday.

      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/kre/performance

      SPY was up 5.4% YTD.

      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance

      XLK was up 1.07%.
      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/xlk/performance

      Delete
    2. I like that framework. It makes a lot of sense.

      The worldwide cheap costs have kept down what inflation would have been.

      Now under social pressures (stop using cheap almost slave labor) as well as for economic reasons (bring jobs back to USA), that international dynamiic may change.

      But not factored into the articles... technology is making things cheap. The same tasks that took paper, and people, and time... are done by a computer with a sliver of storage and electricity.

      It's removed and contracted so many businesses. Doesn't that keep inflation down too?

      US demographics are another issue. Also we didn't expand through immigration for 4 years in the same way. I don't know if we'll get back our reputation as the place to go for brain-trust immigration. Or if we've lost that.

      2% inflation is nothing much. I will take that as a buying opportunity if the market panics.

      The shift to cyclicals...I don't know why inflation causes a shift to those categories or away from growth with high multiples (that have been so rewarding so will continue to be expected to)?

      Financials have more profits with better rate spreads. So they go up with inflation. Materials and industrials because supply is more fixed and damage is up. Energy cause economy is heating up so more energy is used. So small caps? Because when things are moving along, more small business prosper??

      I missed on financials.

      I should look and decide on drug sector.

      Also on airlines and hospitality.

      Oh, and materials and industrials are just starting to get life.

      Delete
    3. For commodities, a rapid acceleration in demand can cause price spikes since it takes time to adjust supply with the demand increase. Oil is a commodity where low prices for years caused major companies to delay major projects to replace depleting fields and OPEC has managed to be more disciplined in restraining supply under its control.

      Other commodities might need to expand production or reopen a closed facility to meet demand, or the suppliers may just cash their increased supply of money creating the demand spike rather than spend money to create new supply.

      Inflation caused by rapid increase in commodity prices will occur much faster than other causes. On the positive side, those products are much less important now than they were, for example, in the 1970s when a rapid rise in crude's price created havoc on the inflationary front.

      Delete
    4. Typo:
      "Materials and industrials because supply is more fixed and damage is up."

      Was supply is fixed and demand is up.

      Not sure how demand became damage.

      Delete
    5. Cashing in supply of money isn't one I'd thought of.

      I didn't figure out why small caps do well at this point in a cyclical market.

      Delete
  2. The IRS claims that it has started to send stimulus money over the weekend.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/stimulus-check-update-irs-started-processing-payments.html

    Over a million returns for 2019 have yet to be processed including the paper one that I filed in April 2020. I know that they received the return since the IRS quickly deposited the accompanying check. And the payment shows up in my IRS account.

    A taxpayer can access this kind of information and recent IRS tax transcripts by registering at the IRS for eservices.


    Congress has made over the years major cuts in IRS funding; and the pandemic has just made that agency's performance even more third world like.

    "The IRS is behind in processing nearly 7 million tax returns, slowing refunds as it implements new stimulus"
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/12/irs-tax-refund-delays/

    ++

    The JPM Guide to the Markets, a quarterly publication, provides a lot of useful information.

    The report for the 2020 4th quarter can be downloaded here in the PDF format:


    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?c3apidt=p40886527458&gclid=CjwKCAiAhbeCBhBcEiwAkv2cY3Co2KU4kuSROsi7_iE39DCa26XHv9vrlvhVJTeKFch63vU8hZb9kxoCY68QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


    Becoming a more informed investor IMO leads to less error creep.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have get rid of DeJoy and restore the USPS as 1st priority. IRS is on the list.

      I've thought about downloading the Fisher report. It's a confusing market. It's unusual to end a recession at near all time high valuations.

      Delete
    2. Land: The JPM report has a lot of useful information in it, which helps me make asset allocations.

      Small caps will outperform and underperform large caps over meaningfully significant periods of time. The JPM report shows that small caps have underperformed over the past 10 years (table at page 14, annualized 10 year growth rates), with small cap value underperforming small growth significantly which is one reason that I bought VBR last year.

      Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF (VBR)
      $171.85 +$0.39 (+0.23%)
      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VBR?p=VBR&.tsrc=fin-srch
      As of 1:42PM EDT.

      The Growth v. Value valuation chart at page 10 shows growth was undervalued for about 10 years to 2017 and value undervalued relative to growth starting in 2017 and becoming more so thereafter.

      Over the past year, however, a small cap ETF would have meaningfully outperformed the S & P 500.

      Total 1 year returns through last Friday:

      SPY = 61.85%
      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance

      IJR +111.39%
      iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijr/performance


      The small cap outperformance is typical coming out of a recession given their U.S. centric businesses and the larger stock price slide during the downturn.

      Invesco blog dated 6/30/20
      https://www.blog.invesco.us.com/small-cap-stocks-have-historically-outperformed-after-recessions/

      "Small-cap stocks jump ahead of larger peers as US limps toward economic recovery"
      https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/small-cap-stocks-jump-ahead-of-larger-peers-as-us-limps-toward-economic-recovery-62807642

      Barron's article 2/21/21
      "Why Small Caps Underperformed and Why They’ll Rally Again"
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-small-caps-underperformed-and-why-theyll-rally-again-51613914200

      Small caps generally outperform after the FED cuts rates.

      Delete
  3. Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV (SJR)
    PREMARKET
    $30.11 +$11.07 +57.75%
    Before Hours Volume: 223.8K
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sjr?mod=over_search

    I own a meaningful number of shares.

    Rogers Communication will acquire Shaw for C$40.5 per share in cash which roughly translates at the moment into US$32.48.

    The SJR shares will start to fluctuate some based on the CAD/USD conversion rate. The CAD has been gaining strength as of late.

    1 Year chart at
    https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=CAD&To=USD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR)
      $27.61 +$8.44 (+44.03%)
      As of 9:42AM EDT.
      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJR?p=SJR

      The USD priced SJR shares are currently trading significantly below the C$40.5 per share cash offer.

      The reason is probably linked to a concern that the acquisition may run into regulatory roadblocks which is a rational one. The companies do not expect the transaction to close until the first half of 2022.

      Shaw will continue to pay its monthly common share dividend.

      "Shaw will continue to pay its regular monthly dividends of $0.098542 in cash per Class A Share and $0.09875 in cash per Class B Share, and its regular quarterly dividend on its preferred shares in accordance with their terms."

      Delete
    2. Wow, that's a nice increase. Sell into it?

      Delete
    3. Land: I thought that SJR could be an acquisition target. The Stock Jocks are expressing significant concerns about whether the Canadian regulators will allow the merger.

      If the merger goes through, and assuming the exchange rate is as it now, I would gain about US$6 per share + Shaw's monthly dividend for a year or so. The current SJR price is $26.5 and I calculated the cash offer price at $32.48 earlier today at the then current CAD/USD conversion rate.

      So my inclination will be hold most of my shares until the price improves.

      The largest SJR position is in my Fidelity taxable account with 142 shares ($18.39 AC in that account), lower in other accounts.

      I may jettison my highest cost shares bought with dividends. I have been reinvesting the monthly dividend.

      Delete
    4. Will be interesting to see how to moves until the merger. Seems like it should improve at some point.

      Delete
    5. Land: I have no idea whether Canada will allow Rogers to acquire Shaw. Some investors, who did not have a SJR position when the announcement was made, may want to gamble that it goes through. The downside for SJR is back to $19 with the upside to $32+ plus a year or so of SJR's dividends.

      Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR)
      $27.87 As of 2:21PM EDT
      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SJR?p=SJR&.tsrc=fin-srch

      For now, it appears that those who owned SJR before the merger announcement are splitting the difference as in 50/50.

      Delete
    6. That's how my mom would handled it, lol. Can't decide? Split the difference.

      Delete
  4. The VIX closed yesterday at 19.79, the second dip below 20 on a closing basis since the March 2020 meltdown.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX

    That action triggered about a $1K reduction yesterday in a Roth IRA stock allocation.

    Stocks are under pressure today, possibly in response to a rise in interest rates. There appears to be some concern about what Chairman Powell may say later today about the economy.


    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    1.667% +0.05%
    Last Updated: Mar 17, 2021 11:02 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

    It is hard for the Old Geezer crowd to understand why a 6 basis point move would be upsetting, particularly when the end result is a 1.67% yield.

    When I made my first stock purchase in 1968, the ten year yield was over 5% and was on its way to 15+% peak in 1981.
    The 10 year treasury yield was mostly between 2.5% to 4% during the long term secular stock bull market that started around 1950 and lasted into the mid-1960s.

    The yields were far higher for the long term secular bull market that started in August 1982 and ended in March 2000.


    https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate/table/by-year

    But during those long term stock bull markets, the Stock Jocks were not addicted to having near zero interest rates either, let alone an addiction so severe that a 6 basis point move from one extremely low yield to another could generate angst.

    There may also be some concern about the rapidly increasing Covid infection rates in several European countries.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just got back from my appt and looked at the indices.

      Someone liked what Powell said!

      I saw an article about Brazil being in very bad shape. part of it due to the type of mutation (the rest due to Trump-like management there too.) They're at capacity.

      I think the worry is punch bowl removal.

      Delete
    2. I completely missed that VIX got under 20 yesterday.

      That too can be a reason for red. A basic technical retreat, even though 19.97 shouldn't create fear...

      Now back under 20 again.

      Delete
    3. Land: I do some stock market timing off the VIX movements. So far, net selling has been extremely light when the VIX fell below 20. Buying was concentrated during the VIX spike periods.

      The market is reacting in part to Powell's comments and the Dot Plot released by the FED:

      No rate hike is currently anticipated before 2024 by a majority of FED voting members (Figure 2)

      Real GDP is now predicted at 6.5% in 2021 up from the 4.2% prediction made last December.
      https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210317.htm

      Delete
  5. I own Australian dollars in my IB account. The AUD was crushed in March 2020, falling below AUD/USD .58, and has been a recovery mode vs. the USD since March.

    There was a significant move up in the AUD/USD after the FED's announcement today, with the exchange rate quickly moving from .77 to .78 and then gaining some in response to a better than expected Australian jobs report.

    https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AUDUSD/

    I also own CADs which have been gaining against the USD since last March. The CAD/USD rate has now gone above .8 which has provoked me in the past to exchange some CADs back into USDs.


    Item # 1.A. Bought USD$15K Using C$18,747.15 ($2 IB conversion fee built into rate):
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/08/observations-and-sample-of-recent_31.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. PPL Corp
    $29.55 +$1.53 +5.46%
    Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 9:44 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ppl?mod=over_search

    I have previously discussed PPL's desire to sell its U.K. operations. An announcement was made this morning that PPL had reached an agreement to sell those operations to National Grid for approximately $10.2B in net cash proceeds.

    PPL will use part of the cash, $5.3B, to acquire National Grid's Narragansett Electric based in Rhode Island.


    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ppl-corporation-to-sell-uk-utility-business-to-national-grid-and-acquire-national-grids-rhode-island-utility-strategically-repositioning-ppl-as-a-high-growth-us-focused-energy-company-301249864.html

    I own around 200 PPL shares.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So it's good news it sounds like. A kind of consolidation so they can focus better.

      I have 60 shares (from when you talked about it a while ago and I bought in.) Going to be hard to jump in more here.

      PBCT also jumped up today. Earlier 5-6%. I have much less of that. But it's got the same gain because it's up 66% from my buy spot.

      I missed the boat by getting in a toe but not a foot after that.

      Is there reason to pair on the jump here with PPL? I'm inclined to let it ride.

      Delete
  7. The ten year treasury yield is spiking again today, up over 11 basis points.

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    1.755% 0.11%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

    The hoped for improvement in bank net interest margins is causing regional bank stocks to move higher.

    SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
    $72.16 +$2.41 +3.46%
    Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 at 10:29 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=over_search

    Although I have been paring my regional bank stock allocation, it is still my single largest sector allocation for owned individual stocks. I will continue to sell into strength.

    One longer term benefit would be for the FED keeping ZIRP through 2023 which will anchor bank deposit costs at historically abnormal levels. With the spread widening between those deposit costs and what the bank can earn as longer term interest rates rise, NIM will improve. Loan growth and lower loan losses will generally occur with a strong economic recovery.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So the spike is why the market pulled back today, after such excitement yesterday over Powell (that was yesterday?)

      What's causing the spikes? Well, the mini speed bumps. Spike is a bit much to call these increases.

      Delete
    2. Land: I am amused by my use of "spike" to describe a 11 basis move in the 10 year treasury yield. The move up is closer to 8 basis points now with the 10 year treasury yield at 1.727%.

      An article in Marketwatch referred to that yield increase to an absurdly low level by historical standards going back to 1790 as "soaring". That headline is even more humorous to me.

      The FED is going to allow inflation to move over 2% before taking any action. With the Bond Ghouls now convinced that inflation will continue to move higher, and the Fed sitting on its hands with a move over 2%, they are demanding today, but maybe not tomorrow or next week, a higher yield to compensate for the added inflation risk.

      The FED still controls IMO intermediate and longer term treasury yields through massive treasury and mortgage backed security purchases. They could modify their purchases to focus more on longer term debt if rates rise too much. This kind of action is called Operation Twist.

      https://www.thebalance.com/federal-reserve-s-operation-twist-3305529


      Delete
  8. I know that virtually everyone reading this blog view my small ball purchases and sells to be somewhat, or entirely comical as to amounts.

    My brain was rewired on taking risks once I adopted capital preservation as my primary investment objective.

    I am willing to take some risks but only in measured amounts and then only by taking additional measures to mitigate the relatively minor risks being assumed.

    Mitigation measures include selling into strength and implementing significant buying only when the risk/reward tilts substantially toward reward (e.g. March 2020).

    Two risk mitigation measures involve dividend reinvestment. I will periodically sell shares purchased with dividends when I can do so profitably. The second dividend related measure is to turn off the reinvestment option when I am no longer will to make non-dividend reinvestment purchases based on price. I have turned off the reinvestment for my regional bank holdings and I am now selling shares bought with dividends.

    Bank of Butterfield Ltd. (NTB)
    $41.05 +$1.46 +3.69%
    Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 12:01 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NTB?mod=over_search

    I realized yesterday that I can sell fractional shares at Fidelity. I previously had been buying fractional shares.

    In my Fidelity taxable account, I had only .427 share bought with 1 NTB dividend payment, and sold only that fractional amount this morning leaving me with 18 shares at an AC of $24.19.

    I also liquidated all FHB fractional shares bought at over $20 with dividend payments (5.891 shares). Several payments were reinvested at less than $20.

    First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)
    $30.70 +$1.53% +$5.25
    Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 12:09 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fhb?mod=over_search

    I also liquidated the fractional shares bought with ASB dividends bringing my AC down slightly to $12.19.

    Associated Banc-Corp. (ASB)
    $23.92 +$0.99 +$4.32%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/asb?mod=over_search

    I may do the same with several other bank stocks where I have turned off the reinvestment option.

    As discussed many times, I am not concerned about losing the compounding effect at my age and the focus is simply on earning a return on the reinvested dividends greater than the original payment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've concluded that your small balls involve making things into diversity. You buy a total $ amount that you intend, just lots of issues. The shift to that is possible because of free commissions.

      For myself I need to step in, sometimes toe, but more often with 1/2 a foot. I've decided going forward that's better for me. ...because I need to have less issues to keep track of. And because I do poorly at getting in more after that 1st couple buys.

      It's tempting since I don't have a lot of bank stocks, to add to mine even at this increased price. As the economy grows, likely inflation and rates will and so banks will keep going up as well.

      Same with energy but I'm not tempted to buy more because I have too much already.

      Delete
    2. Land: I do have stock diversity out the Ying-Yang or Wazoo depending on one's favorite expression for abundance.

      For now, my value dominated stock portfolio is leaning in the right direction and has been since last September. Many of the regional bank stocks have more than doubled in the past 9 months or so.

      Marketwatch published an article earlier today that the value stocks were gaining adherents among the Big MO crowd.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page

      PBCT is going to move with MTB:

      M&T Bank Corp
      $158.34 +$5.50 +3.60%
      Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 2:12 p.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/MTB?mod=over_search

      Life insurance companies are running with the bank stocks which has been the case for months now.

      MetLife Inc.
      $62.08 +$1.93 +3.21%

      I am receiving enough $ upside that I see no reason to take on more risk assets.

      Delete
  9. Columbia Property Trust Inc. (CXP)
    $17.34 +$1.72 +11.01%
    Last Updated: Mar 18, 2021 at 12:57 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cxp?mod=over_search

    I own this Office REIT in several of my accounts.

    The pop today is due to CXP receiving an offer to buy the company for $19.5 per share in cash. The offer comes from an outfit called Arkhouse Partners and its affiliates.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210318005655/en/

    The Stock Jocks are treating this takeover attempt as a serious one. The current price also reflects the likelihood that CXP will resist the effort, possibly holding out for a higher price that the potential acquirer will not be willing to pay.

    I recently pared my CXP position, selling 5 shares at $14.96 and have written up a discussion already for my next post. That pare brought my average cost to $11.5 (51+ shares held in my Fidelity taxable account).

    I just sold another 1.801 shares at $17.41, which includes my highest cost lot in that account bought with a dividend.

    Low interest rates make this kind of acquisition more attractive since rents will frequently escalate based on CPI which is going up, while debt used to finance this kind of acquisition remains cheap. The potential acquirer for CXP may be relying mostly on investor funds.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Oh my, the market's in a sinking mood this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  11. CNBC's comment is just interest rates for the overall feel of the market not rallying day after day, but nothing specific is pointed to for the last hour sink.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The high multiple growth stocks are being held hostage to minor up and down interest rate movements. Today, the 409 point decline in the Nasdaq index was large enough to take the market down including those sectors that were strongly positive earlier in the day.

      One explanation is simply that the S & P 500 index closed at 2,237.4 on 3/23/20 and recently hit a new all time high today at 3,969.62 or +77.42% in less than 1 year.

      Some defensive stocks remained in the green today:

      Some Electric Utility Stocks:

      WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC)
      $88.11 +0.66 (+0.75%)

      Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
      $92.32 +$0.47 (+0.51%)

      Evergy, Inc. (EVRG)
      $58.64 +$0.26 (+0.45%)

      PPL Corporation (PPL)
      $29.69 +$1.67 (+5.96%)(news related)

      Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)
      $58.57 +$0.08 (+0.14%)

      Dominion Energy, Inc. (D)
      $73.50 +$0.33 (+0.45%)(recent repurchase, not yet discussed)



      The gains in utility stocks are bit counter intuitive given the rise in interest rates. But earnings will be better this year compared to 2020 based on GDP growth and fewer customer defaults.

      Packaged Food:

      General Mills, Inc. (GIS)
      $59.90 +$0.51 (+0.86%)

      Kellogg Company (K)
      $60.63 +$0.25 (+0.41%)

      Large Cap Drugs:

      Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
      $62.33 +$0.15 (+0.24%)

      Defense:

      Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
      $358.45 +$7.43 (+2.12%)

      Some industrial stocks also bucked the trend down:

      3M Company (MMM)
      $191.00 +$2.70 (+1.43%)

      I own all of the foregoing.

      Regional bank stocks gave back most of their intraday gains but KRE managed to stay positive at +$.38 per share.

      Delete
    2. Useful to know what's done well in this.

      So loan rates go up in expectation of needing to keep a spread to inflation to not go negative. (Or these days, more negative.)

      Delete
    3. Land: The nominal yield for the ten year treasury closed at 1.71% today. The real yield on the 10 year TIP closed at -.56:

      https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

      The forecasted annual average inflation rate over the next ten years is 2.27%, meaning that the rise to 1.71% is predicted to produce a negative real yield before taxes. That is not normal. A normal spread would be 2% to the anticipated annual average inflation rate which would produce a 4.27% ten year treasury yield. The Bond Ghouls are not setting rates. That is being done by major central banks.

      The fact that rates are nowhere close to a normal level given current and reasonably anticipated economic conditions indicates that the FED has been successful suppressing yields below the inflation rate and will likely be successful in continuing to do so.

      For now, the FED is allowing the Bond Ghouls to raise yields a tad but will clamp down through an Operation Twist IMO when the 10 year yield moves close to or slightly over 2%, sending rates back down further below the anticipated inflation rate.

      A decline of 10% or more can happen at anytime and would not be signalling anything other than normal market dynamics after a long and powerful move up.

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    4. If rates get over 2% and Fed does Operation twist to bring them back under...

      The market is panicking over the rise in long rates. So will the market rally yet again?

      Actually is the market panicking that rates are rising... or panicking that the Fed might not keep them clamped down?

      Either way, it'd be a rally when rates get over 2% after a market decline (except for banks, commondities and indutrials) over that rise?

      I thought the panic was because, as rates rise there's a compeitive location for stocks? (Well compeitive eventually, not yet, but I thought the market was anticipating.)

      ---
      So I have the pieces of this but I don't think I've got them put together totally correctly.

      Delete
  12. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/03/bhb-cc-cxp-cznc-dpg-fdus-fhb-flo-fnb.html

    ReplyDelete