Thursday, March 10, 2022

ABB, CMCSA, CTRA, D, DGX, DNNGY, FPF, FTS, HBI, JRI, NJR, ORAN, PHG, SJIJ, VYGR

Economy

Jobs report February 2022 +678K with the consensus at 440K; unemployment declined to 3.8%; wages up 5.1% for the 12 months ending in 2/22; work week rose .1% to 34.7 hours. Employment Situation SummaryTable A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization 

CPI rose 7.9% in the 12 month period ending in February. The consensus estimate was +7.8%. Core inflation was up 6.4%. Consumer Price Index Summary 

War fallout: U.S. economy to slow, Europe risks recession and Russia to suffer double-digit decline

Russia warns of $300 oil if ban goes ahead, threatens to cut off European gas These threats emphasize the urgency of rapidly developing alternative energy sources, including renewable generation facilities. How the EU plans to cut dependence on Russian gas by 67% this year One long term impact of Russia's military aggression will be the loss of Europe as an energy customer. 

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma-St. Louis Fed   

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Markets and Market Commentary:  

Fitch slashes Russian debt further into junk, says 'default imminent' - MarketWatch (six notch downgrade to "C") Just another Putin gift to Mother Russia. 

Ukraine: Angry dock workers in the UK are refusing to unload Russian oil

Expel Russia from the WTO  

Shell to stop operations in Russia over Ukraine war, apologizes for buying Russian oil - The Washington Post

The Russian Ruble continues its Putin forced march to a worthless currency. 1 RUB to USD - Russian Rubles to US Dollars Exchange Rate The Russian stock market remains closed. 

Companies pulling back from Russia over the war in Ukraine | CNN Business

Nickel trading suspended in London after prices hit $100,000

Wheat Prices Trade 'Limit up' for the 5th Day in a Row After Russia Attack (3/7/22) Up 50% since Russia invaded Ukraine. 

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Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks

Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) SEC Filed Press Release (AQN is a Canadian based company that reports in USDs; Adjusted E.P.S. of $.21; consensus at $.207 per Fidelity; revenues at $594.8M in the 4th quarter and $2.2855B for 2021; 2001 adjusted E.P.S. at $.71;  estimates 2022 adjusted E.P.S. of $.72-$.77; AQN is in the process of acquiring Kentucky Power from AEP; "AQN has been successfully executing on its financing plan for the Kentucky Power Acquisition, having raised approximately $1.7 billion in aggregate to date. In connection with the announcement of the Kentucky Power Acquisition, the Company completed a C$800 million bought deal common equity offering, and on January 18, 2022, the Company completed concurrent public offerings of junior subordinated notes in the United States and Canada in an aggregate principal amount of $750 million and C$400 million, respectively."  

Chemours (CC) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP net income of $233M or $1.40 per share, adjusted to $.81 with the consensus on that basis at $.923 per Fidelity; guides 2022 to adjusted E.P.S. of $4.07 to $4.7 with free cash greater than $500M; revenues at $1.6B, up 18%; completed sale of its mining solution business for $521M, with the gain from that transaction being the largest adjustment to GAAP net income; free cash flow for 2021 was reported at $543M, up from $540 in 2020)

Easterly Government Properties (DEA) SEC Filed Press Release (Adjusted FFO of $31.3M or $.32 per share; CAD at $26.3M or $.30 per share; quarterly dividend at $.265 per share; "Announced the formation of a joint venture (the “JV”), which serves as the investment vehicle for the acquisition of the anticipated 1,214,165 leased square foot portfolio of 10 properties (the “VA Portfolio”) for an aggregate contractual purchase price of approximately $635.6 million. During the quarter ended December 31, 2021, the JV acquired four of the 10 assets in the VA Portfolio"; guides 2022 FFO per share guidance at $1.34 to $1.36)

Fidelity National Financial (FNF) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. of $1.87, adjusted to $2.16 with the consensus at $1.632 per Fidelity; adjusted net income of $616M; FNF is not a bank but sells title insurance and annuities)

Fidus Investment (FDUS) SEC Filed Press Release (NII per share of $.10, adjusted to $.49; the adjusted NII includes a reversal of an incentive fee payable to the external manager; net asset value per share = $19.96, up  $16.81 as of 12/31/20; "On February 15, 2022, our board of directors declared a base dividend of $0.36 per share and a supplemental dividend of $0.17 per share for the fourth quarter. The dividends will be payable on March 25, 2022, to stockholders of record as of March 11, 2022": "For the year ended December 31, 2021, the total net realized gain on investments, net of income tax provision on realized gains, was $53.8 million, as compared to total net realized loss on investments, net of income tax provision on realized gains, of $(1.5) million for the same period in 2020"; subsequent to 12/31/21, FDUS received a distribution on its "equity investment in SpendMend LLC, resulting in a realized gain of approximately $6.1 million.")

FS KKR Capital (FSK) SEC Filed Press Release (net investment income of $.66 per share with the consensus at $.608 per Fidelity; net asset value per share reported at $27.17, up from $27.14 as of 9/30/21 and $25.02 as of 12/31/20; "As of December 31, 2021, investments on non-accrual status represented 1.9% and 3.9% of the total investment portfolio at fair value and amortized cost, respectively, compared to 3.7% and 5.1% as of September 30, 2021"; eliminating the impact of merger accounting conventions,  the "weighted average annual yield on all debt investments was 7.9%, compared to 7.5% as of September 30, 2021")

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) SEC Filed Press Release (NII per share = $.39, with the consensus at $.358 per Fidelity; net asset value per share at $11.56, up from $11.02 as of 12/31/20; "Undistributed spillover income of $0.51 per share as of December 31, 2021": "Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 16.2% for the quarter"; "Held portfolio of warrant and equity positions in 76 companies as of December 31, 2021"; "For the quarter ended December 31, 2021, net unrealized depreciation on investments was $4.9 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to net unrealized appreciation on investments of $17.1 million, or $0.91 per share"; "On February 25, 2022, the Company’s board of directors declared monthly distributions of $0.10 per share payable in each of April, May and June 2022.") 

New Mountain Finance (NMFC) SEC Filed Press Release (net investment income of $0.31 per weighted average share. At December 31, 2021, net asset value (“NAV”) per share was $13.49, compared to $13.26 at September 30, 2021 and $12.62 at December 31, 2020. The Company also announced that its board of directors declared a first quarter distribution of $0.30 per share, which will be payable on March 31, 2022 to holders of record as of March 17, 2022"; "As of December 31, 2021, the Company’s NAV was approximately $1,321.2 million and its portfolio had a fair value of approximately $3,195.8 million in 106 portfolio companies, with a weighted average YTM at Cost of approximately 9.1%. For the three months ended December 31, 2021, the Company generated approximately $251.6 million of originations in twelve new portfolio companies and approximately $103.7 million of originations, including commitments  for follow-on investments in sixteen portfolio companies held as of September 30, 2021. For the three months ended December 31, 2021, the Company had $102.5 million of asset sales and cash repayments of approximately $147.3 million.", footnote references omitted)

Oneok (OKE) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP Net income of $379.4 or $.85 per share with consensus per Fidelity at $.888; 2021 E.P.S. at $3.35; adjusted EBITDA at $846.6M; depreciation expense at $153.1M; reduced debt by $600M in 2021; 2022 guidance: net income midpoint of $1.69B compared to the 2021 actual of $1.5B with GAAP E.P.S. at $3.46 to $4.07)

SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC) Announces Quarter and Fiscal Year Results (SLR Investment Corp.  (SLRC) is merging with SLR Senior Investment Corp. (SUNS), with SLRC being the surviving BDC. There is no reason for both BDCs to continue as separate companies; NII per share at $.35; net asset value per share at $19.93, down from $20.16 as of 12/31/20; first lien senior secured loans at 94.2%; this BDC is not earnings its quarterly dividend of $.41 per share and a cut is consequently possible IMO. I eliminated my position in SUNS, which will be discussed in a subsequent post, and am not currently looking favorably on SLRC)  

Starwood Property Trust (STWD) SEC Filed Press Release ("fourth quarter 2021 GAAP net income was $91.4 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, and Distributable Earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure) was $335.0 million, or $1.10 per diluted share. The Company's full year 2021 GAAP net income was $447.7 million, or $1.52 per diluted share, and Distributable Earnings was $794.1 million, or $2.63 per diluted share. Distributable Earnings in both periods includes a $191.3 million gain related to the sale of a 20.6% interest in the new affordable housing investment fund during the fourth quarter of 2021, or $0.62 and $0.63 per diluted share for the quarter and full year, respectively. For GAAP purposes, the establishment of the fund resulted in a $1.2 billion positive mark-to-market adjustment directly to equity which did not impact earnings; excluding the $.62 gain from selling its interest in a fund, distributable earnings per share in the 4th quarter was $.48)

Stellus Capital Investment Corporation (SCM) Reports Results for its Fourth Fiscal Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2021 (Net investment income per share of $.26, adjusted to $.33 which excludes the impact of accrued, and not yet paid, incentive fees payable to the external manager, which is an adjustment that I tend to ignore; net asset value per share reported at $14.61, up from $14.01 as of 12/31/20; the BDC reported a net realized gain of $17.11M or $.88 per share during the 4th quarter and $23.71M for 2021 compared to a net realized loss of $10.13M in 2020)

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG)(NII per share of $.42, up from $.32 in the prior quarter; consensus at $.343 per Fidelity; net asset value per share = $14.01, up from $12.97 as of 12/31/20; reported a 14.9% weighted average annualized portfolio yield; "TPVG portfolio companies Enjoy Technology, Inc. and Bird Global, Inc. completed SPAC mergers, Rent the Runway, Inc. completed its initial public offering, and Grove Collaborative, Inc. announced plans to go public through a SPAC merger"; "Estimated undistributed taxable earnings from net investment income of $12.4 million, or $0.40 per share, as of December 31, 2021"; subsequent to 12/31/21, the "TPVG portfolio companies Inspirato LLC and Sonder Holdings Inc. completed SPAC mergers" and "TPVG raised $125 million in aggregate principal amount from the private issuance of 5.0% institutional notes due 2027, initially assigned a BBB rating by DBRS, Inc.")

Whitecap Resources (WCP:CA) Announces Record Production and Funds Flow and Increases Dividend by 33% (Diluted E.P.S. of C$.35; Funds Flow per share at C$.55; for 2021 E.P.S. at C$2.95; 2021 Funds Flow per share at C$1.82, up from C$1.06; "In 2021, free funds flow after capital totaled $670 million or $1.11 per share, an increase from the prior year of 182% and 92% respectively. This allowed us to increase our dividend by 58% in 2021 and repurchase over 24 million common shares for total capital returned to shareholders of $290 million compared to $98 million in the prior year, an increase of 196%.", footnote references omitted; the new monthly dividend will be C$.03 per share, up from C$.025) 

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No progress was made in a meeting between foreign ministers earlier today. The Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia stated that a cease-fire was not even on the table.  The Ukraine FM said Russia wanted Ukraine to surrender. Lavrov dismissed reports of Russian attacks on civilians as "pathetic shrieks" from Russia's enemies. Russia intends to conquer Ukraine and decapitate the democratically elected government. Putin is all in even if that approach results in the destruction of Russia's economy and turning Russia into a European version of North Korea. 

If the stock market rally yesterday was due to hope that Russia would be reasonable in this meeting, it was based on delusionary thinking. 



After reading excerpts from Putin's speeches spanning decades, it is clear to me that he is delusional. How to Read Vladimir Putin - The Washington Post  



The mother's name was Tatiana Perebeinis, who was murdered by Russia along with her children, Alise (9 years old) and her older brother Nikita. Tatianna was the chief accountant for the Silicon Valley firm SE Ranking. 

I heard a commentator summarize Russia's military strategy. Bomb cities into rubble and then bomb the rubble. Ukraine war crimes evidence sought amid rubble - The Washington Post There are an abundance of Russian war criminals. I doubt that a single one will receive the justice they so richly deserve after a war crimes trial and conviction, though some may receive the death penalty on the battlefield.   

Yesterday, Russia bombed a maternity and children's hospital in Mariupol burying women and children under the rubble. Russia bombs maternity and children's hospital Among the people murdered by Russia in this attack was a 6 year old child. 

In a recent independent, non-government poll, a majority of Russians support the invasions of Ukraine. Russian public opinion: Poll shows 58 percent of Russians support Ukraine invasion, 23 percent oppose it - The Washington Post This is not surprising. 

The Russian Ambassador to the U.N. represented that it was Ukraine that was bombing Ukrainian civilians, hospitals, schools, apartment buildings and Ukrainian civilians trying to flee Russia's efforts to murder them. The fact that Russia is intentionally murdering civilians should surprise no one. 



The largest genocide operation committed by Russia against Ukraine's civilian population is called Holodomor, where Russia killed millions of Ukrainians during the early 1930s. The Ukrainian Famine: How Joseph Stalin Starved Millions - HISTORY, and see Anne Applebaum's book Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine 

While Putin denied that conscripts were fighting in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledge earlier this week that some had been "found" in Ukraine and were returned to Russia. Russia admits conscripts have been fighting in Ukraine, despite Putin's previous denials Maybe the Russians are referring to those returned in body bags. 

Putin offered Ukraine peace terms last week. If Ukraine surrenders, abandons their weapons, recognizes the separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent countries controlled by Russia, and recognizes Crimea as part of Russia rather than Ukraine, Russia may quit bombing apartment buildings, single family residences, churches, schools, nuclear power plants,  hospitals including children's hospitals,  and civilians trying to flee with small children. 

Putin says Ukraine may lose its sovereignty if its citizens continue resisting Russian occupation. Putin: “The current leadership needs to understand that if they continue doing what they are doing, they risk the future of Ukrainian statehood. If that happens, they will have to be blamed for that.” 

In other words, Putin was going to allow Ukraine to remain a sovereign country with free elections and a free press until Ukraine decided to resist Russia's invasion of their country.  And it is clear now in Russia's Alternate Reality that its military buildup along Ukraine's border was, as Russia claimed many times, just a military exercise. 

As to why Russian military forces were targeting civilians in Mariupol, Putin said it was because Ukrainian officials were using the civilians as "human shields". Putin: "They just really, directly cover themselves using the people as a human shield This situation is now unfolding in Mariupol.” Those murdered by Russia in Mariupol are being buried in mass graves. Mariupol buries its dead as civilian toll in the besieged port city passes 1,200  | Daily Mail OnlineAfter a Week of Siege, Bloodied Mariupol Plans Mass Graves - The New York Times


A new iron curtain descends on Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine Perhaps the country needs to change its name to "Putin's Gulag". Putin makes Hugo Chávez look good. 



China Touts "Rock Solid" Ties to Russia -The Washington Post I believe that China gave a green light to Putin for his invasion and is now offering to be a "neutral" mediator. Putin visited China shortly before launching the invasion. China's totalitarian leader would have asked Putin about his intentions, and I doubt that Putin would have lied in response. Putin's Olympic trip signals warmer Russia-China ties - BBC NewsPutin and Xi Frame a New China-Russia Partnership – The Diplomat In their joint statement, the two totalitarian states said that they want to bring true democracy to the world. China calls Russia its 'most important' partner as it refrains from condemning Ukraine invasion - MarketWatch (3/7/22) If China wanted to end the war, it could start that process along by simply imposing the same sanctions as the U.S. and Europe which of course it will never do.  

Russia passes law mandating jail time for ‘fake’ news reports The vote was unanimous in Russia's "parliament". Calling Russia's invasion of Ukraine an invasion, rather than a "special military operation" by liberators who are fighting Nazis according to Putin's flagrantly evil propaganda, may be punished by up to 15 years in prison. The Speaker of Russia's lower house, Vyacheslav Volodin, said the law was necessary "to protect the truth."  

Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Don’t Believe It’s a War - The New York Times It is not surprising that so many Russians readily accept Putin's false propaganda rather than what they are told by their relatives, including their sons and daughters, who are actually experiencing the war first hand in Ukraine. 

 
Last Vestiges of Russia’s Free Press Fall Under Kremlin Pressure - The New York Times Russia is a totalitarian state controlled by 1 person who will not tolerate any criticism or dissent, nor will he allow the population access to accurate information. 

I view authoritarian rule, mass murder of civilians, and military aggression as the natural state of affairs for Russia which is why NATO exists. 

Russia sends a message to all of Ukraine by hitting these civilian areas in this city - CNN Russia is targeting schools, churches, health care facilities, and apartment complexes, destroying those structures with far away missile attacks. 

Russia-Ukraine: Bill Ackman says World War III likely already started I believe that Ackman is talking up his short positions. 



As previously mentioned, the Netherlands has charged Russians with responsibility for shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over the separatist controlled area in Eastern Ukraine, murdering 298 passengers and crew in July 2014. MH17: 3 Russians charged with shooting down plane over Ukraine-BBC News (pictures and names of the accused are contained in that article, noting that Russia provided the missile launcher; needless to say, Russia will not turn them over for trial)  Putin TV tried to blame Ukraine for that slaughter too even though the missile launch, using  Russian made BUK missile and a missile launcher controlled by a Russian brigade, was traced to the Russian controlled Donbass area. MH17: The Netherlands and Australia hold Russia responsible).

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1. Bought 5 FPF at $21.26 and 85 at $21.29

History this Account: 


Quote: 
First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview




Credit Quality: 

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation

I have been increasing my allocation to this category. Payments are being sourced from brokerage money market accounts that currently pay .01%. 

Leveraged: Yes, substantial at 31.26% as of 3/1/22. 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Restarted FPF- Bought 10 at $21.64 (11/13/20 Post) 

Average cost per share$21.33 (100+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.1275 ($1.53 annually if paid for 12 months, but 2021 had only 11 monthly payments or $1.40 per share, two payments were made in January 2022)

I am currently taking the dividend payments in cash. 

Yield at AC of $21.33 per share7.17%, rounded down (using $1.53 annual penny rate)

Last Ex Dividend: 3/1/22 (owned all as of) 

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2 Sold 103 FBF at $22.03-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Goal: Harvest the dividend and sell the shares for any profit before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. 

My concerns are the fund's substantial leverage, the likely increase in borrowing costs tied to short term rates, credit and interest rate risk issues, a decline in net asset value per share resulting from issuer redemptions at par value, and the inherent price volatility of owned securities particularly during periods of market stress. I will not be buying more shares.     

For 2021, this CEF reported ROC support of $.049332 with 76.77% of the total classified as "qualified" dividends. As with other "preferred" stock funds, this fund will own some exchange traded bonds that pay interest and REIT preferred stocks whose distributions are entirely, or almost so, classified as non-qualified dividends. The allocation to exchange traded bonds has been reduced over time due to issuer redemptions and a paucity of new offerings. 

Purchase Restriction and Maximum Position: I will add to this position in 10 share lots, with each subsequent purchase being at the lowest price in the chain, until I hit 200 shares. 

2. Small Ball

A. Sold 20 of 120 ORAN at $12.43


Quotes: 

USDs: Orange ADR

Euros: Orange Stock Quote (France: Euronext Paris)

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

ADR Ratio: 1 to 1  

Website: Orange

ORAN.PA - Orange SA Profile | Reuters

ORAN.PA - Orange SA Key Metrics | Reuters (in Euros)

ORAN SEC Filings (foreign company SEC Forms) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.I. Added 10 ORAN at $10.48 (12/31/21 Post)(discussed third quarter report in that post); Item # 2.D. Added to ORAN-Bought 10 at $11.11 (8/12/21) 

Investment Category: Bond Substitute

Profit Snapshot: +$16 

Average cost per share: $11.47

Dividend: Semi-annually. The dividends are paid in Euros and converted into USDs for owners of ORAN. In 2021, ORAN paid out $.9345 per share. France took out a 12.8% tax from my last dividend. Claiming Foreign Taxes: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab

The next semi-annual payment will be in June at €.40 per share. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release

SEC Filed Slide Presentation of 2021 Results :



Analyst Reports

Morningstar (2/17/22): 4 stars with a FV of $15.5

S & P (10/28/21): 5 stars with a 12 month PT of $14 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

B. Bought 10 HBI at $15.87; 10 at $15.42; 5 at $14.98-Schwab Taxable:

Quote Hanesbrands Inc. 

This is a new name for me. I decided to start nibbling a bit here and there after reviewing the last earnings report discussed below. 

Website: Comfortable Clothing Since 1901 | Hanes

Hanesbrands, Inc.  Investor Relations Home 

HBI SEC Filings 

Annual Report 

HBI Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch

Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Contrarian Value

Average Cost per share this account$15.51 (25 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share

Yield at AC = 3.87%, rounded up

Last Ex Dividend: 2/14/22 (owned 20 as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 1/1/22):  SEC Filed Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations: $.19

GAAP E.P.S. at $.44 which includes a $.02 impact from a higher than expected tax rate.  

Consensus at $.44 per Fidelity. 

Revenues at $1.75B from continuing operations, up 4% compared to the 2020 4th quarter. The Champion brand sales increased by 10%. "Excluding $28 million in sales of personal protective equipment (“PPE”) and $45 million of sales from a 53rd week in the prior period, and a $9 million headwind from exchange rates in the current period, net sales increased $146 million, or 9%, over prior year."

For the fiscal quarter ending 4/4/22, company guides to adjusted E.P.S. of $.24 to $.31 and $1.64 to $1.81 for the fiscal year. 

Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $.53 in the 2021 third quarter beating the consensus estimate by 6 cents. 

Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at $.47 in the 2021 second quarter beating the consensus estimate by 8 cents. 

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

HBI received a significant boost from PPE sold during the pandemic. PPE revenues in 2020 were reported at $820M. 

The company suffered in 2020 from Target's decision to discontinue the C9 Champion brands after 15 years Champion is ending a popular line at Target HBI moved that brand to Amazon as the exclusive seller. HanesBrands Launches Popular C9 Champion Brand With Amazon in Multiyear Exclusive AgreementAmazon.com : C9 by Champion

The company has also been negatively impacted by the pandemic which hurt sales through retail outlets and the ongoing supply chain problems related thereto. 

Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. 

C. Pared CTRA in Fidelity Account: Sold Highest Cost 5 shares at $23.83

Quote: Coterra Energy Inc.

CTRA SEC Filings

Website: Coterra Energy

Coterra Energy - Investor Relations

This company was recently formed through the merger of Cimarex and Cabot Oil, both publicly traded companies. Cabot Oil & Gas and Cimarex Energy Complete Combination, Forming Coterra Energy (10/1/21) I have a faint memory of owning Cimarex in the distant past. 

This stock was favorably mentioned in this recent Barron's article. 7 Stocks to Play the Rally in Natural Gas | Barron's (3/4/22). 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Started CTRA in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $21.53; 2 at $21.1; 2 at $20.75;  2 at $20.4; 2 at $20 and 1 at $19.56 (12/10/21 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: +$10.15

New Average Cost per share this account: 19.79 (20 shares)

The AC per share was reduced from $20.19. 

I own this stock in other taxable accounts and in 2 Roth IRA accounts. 

Dividend: The last quarterly dividend was $.56 per share that went ex dividend on 3/4/22. Coterra Energy - Dividend History

CTRA is one of the energy producers that pay both a regular and variable dividend. The regular quarterly dividend is $.15 per share. The variable dividend is based on free cash flow. The general policy is to pay out 50%+ of free cash flow through the base and variable dividend framework. 

"Based on fourth-quarter 2021 free cash flow (non-GAAP), Coterra's Board today declared a quarterly base plus variable dividend of $0.56 per share. The base plus variable dividend reflects a $0.15 per share base component and a variable component of $0.41 per share, on the Company's common stock. The combined base plus variable dividend represents 48 percent of cash flow from operating activities in fourth-quarter 2021, or 60 percent of free cash flow (non-GAAP)" Coterra Energy - Coterra Energy Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2021 Results, Provides 2022 Outlook and Updates Shareholder Return Strategy

In Millions

I can not compute a yield given the variable dividend. Using the $.15 quarterly base dividend only, the yield would be 3.03% at $19.79. If I assumed an average annual variable dividend of $1.64 per share (the last variable of $.41 x. 4), a totally unreasonable assumption that will not actually happen, the yield would be 11.32%.  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21):

GAAP E.P.S. at $1.16

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.83

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 


The main deduction from GAAP is a $451M non-cash change mark-to-market change in commodity derivative instruments. The details of the outstanding contracts as of 2/23/22 are summarized in the press release. 

Average Realized Prices in 4th Q. including hedges: 

2022 Guidance: 

D. Added to DGX - Bought $50 at $132.85; $50 at $129.96



Quote: Quest Diagnostics Inc.

Quest Diagnostics - Investor Relations

DGX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

DGX SEC Filings 

2021 SEC Filed Annual Report 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Bought 1 DGX at $141.45  (11/26/21 Post) 

Average Cost per share: $137.33 (1.76 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.66 ($2.64 annually), increased from $.62 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment. 

DGX Dividend History | Nasdaq

The quarterly dividend was $.30 per share in 2014. A reasonable forecast IMO is that it will double again within 7 years. 

Yield: 1.92%

Next Ex Dividend: 4/5/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): 

Earnings and revenues were down compared to the 2020 4th quarter due to lower Covid testing revenues. 


GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

Guidance for 2022: Adjusted E.P.S. range of $8.65 to $9.35, compared to $14.24 actual for 2021 and $11.18 in 2020 but up from $6.56 in 2019 

The bonanza from Covid testing is expected to fade this year. As with HOLX, the stock is being priced in my opinion as if the cash and earnings generated by Covid testing never existed.  

Investment Restriction: Purchases will be in $50 to 1 share lots. Each subsequent purchase will have to lower my average cost per share. 

E. Bought 5 SJIJ at $24.07

Quote: South Jersey Industries Inc. 5.625% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 

I do not plan to buy more shares based on a development occurring after this purchase which I discussed in a 2/24/22 comment. The problem is South Jersey agreed to be acquired for $36 in cash. SEC Filing That is good news for me as a common shareholder. 

Since the acquiring company is not publicly traded, SJIJ may be delisted from NYSE trading provided the company no longer files reports with the SEC. 

Trading could continue with those filings, and some privately owned firms have NYSE traded securities. I own two of them. Healthcare Trust of America Inc. 7.375% Cumulative Preferred Series A Stock (HTIA)Tectonic Financial Inc. 9% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perp. Pfd. Series B Stock Quote (TECTP) 

However, in those limited cases where a private company is filing SEC reports, the privately owned firms wanted to sell publicly traded securities and consequently agreed to file those reports, rather than a situation where a publicly traded company that has already issued preferred stock or exchange traded bonds and then goes private. In the later case, there are only costs associated with preparing those reports. 

In the event that SEC filings cease and the security is delisted from NYSE trading, SJIJ may be picked up for trading on the U.S. Grey Market but, if that does not happen, there would be no way to sell the shares. 

There is also a potential issue that the private company may not pay common share dividends and would consequently be legally entitled to defer interest payments on the junior bond for up to 10 years, though the deferred interest would earn interest at the coupon rate which lessens the appeal of that approach.  

I am in a wait and see what happens with SJIJ. If it looks like the security may be delisted, I will sell this 5 share lot while I can without any trouble. 

Issuer:  South Jersey Industries Inc. (SJI) I own the common shares. SJI is a natural gas utility. 

SJI SEC Filings 

Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

Prospectus 

Par Value: $25

Maturity Date: 9/16/2079

Optional Redemption: On or after 9/16/24 at par value, plus any accrued and unpaid interest. 

Interest Payments: Quarterly and Trades Flat 

Yield at $24.07: 5.84%

Last Ex Interest Date: 2/28/22 (owned as of)

Place in Capital Structure: Senior only to common and any equity preferred stock and junior to all senior debt. 

Right of Deferral: The issuer may defer interest payments for up to 40 consecutive quarters, but deferral is allowed only after cash dividend payments are eliminated on junior securities. Deferred interest will accrued interest at the coupon rate of 5.625%. 

Stopper clause at page S-24: 


A "stopper clause" is the legal mechanism that enforces a superior claim to cash.  

I also own a few common shares. 

F. Added to DNNGY-Bought 2 at $32.97


Quotes: 

USD: Oersted A/S ADR

DKK: Oersted A/S  (Denmark: OMX)

DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars

Investors | Ørsted

Website: Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted

Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted

Europe has now recognized that relying on Russia for natural gas and crude oil is contrary to their national security interests and a clear threat to their democracies. Oersted will benefit from decisions to substitute renewable energy generation for current reliance on Russia's natural gas. 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.M. Added to DNNGY-Bought 1 at $35.4 (1/27/22 Post)Item # 1.H. Added to DNNGY-Bought 1 at $40.37; 2 at $38.65; 1 at $37.28 (1/20/22 Post). I discussed the third quarter financial report in this post:  Item # 2.J. Bought Back 5 DNNGY at US$45.16 (11/5/21 Post)

Last Shareholder ReportAnnual report for 2021: Ørsted achieved significant results, both strategically, operationally, and financially, despite an extraordinary year with various external factors significantly impacting the markets where we operate


Ørsted - Q4 2021 - Investor presentation.pdf:


G. Added to CMCSA-Bought 1 at $47.32; 1 at $45.2


Quote: Comcast Corp. Cl A

Investment Categories: Large Cap Valuation/Dividend Growth 

CMCSA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/8/22, consensus E.P.S for 2022 at $3.56; at $4 in 2023 and at $4.76 in 2024). 

CMCSA SEC Filings

2021 Annual Report 

Summary of Businesses at page 1 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Added to CMCSA- Bought 1 at $49.55; 1 at $48.92; 2 at $47.75 (12/31/21 Post)Item # 2.J. Added to CMCSA-Bought 2 at $51.91 (12/3/21 Post)

Average Cost per share: $49.91 (13+ shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually), last raised from $.25 effective for the 2022 second quarter payment.  

CMCSA Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC = 2.16%

Next Ex Dividend: 4/5/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21):  Comcast (CMCSA) SEC Filed Press Release 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.77 per share with the consensus at $.734; 

Revenues up 9.5% to $30.336B; 

Free cash flow of $3.784B, up 122.6% from the 2020 4th quarter; 

For 2021, adjusted E.P.S. at $3.23 with GAAP at $3.04 and free cash flow at $17.1B; 

The adjustment to GAAP is for amortization of acquisition related intangible assets   

H. Added to JRI in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 9 at $14.76


Quote: 
Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview

Sponsor's website: JRI - Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund

JRI SEC Filings

Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation 

Leveraged: Yes at 30.33% as of 3/3/22

My last transaction in this account was to sell 9 shares at $16.11: 


Average cost per share this account: $11.32 (58+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.0965, with some ROC support

Yield at AC this account: 10.23%

Data Date of 2/15/22 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $16.41

Closing Market Price: $14.78

Discount: -9.93%

Sourced:  JRI-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

Other Recent Buy DiscussionsItem #2.A. Bought 13 JRI in Fidelity Account- Averaged Up (1/7/22 Post)(120 shares with an AC at $10.93 per share);  Item # 1.G. Added to JRI-Bought 10 at $11.8; 10 at $11.66 (8/1/20 Post)Item # 1.C. Added 5 JRI at $8.95; 10 at $8.09; 10 at $10.16; 10 at $10.66 (5/16/20 Post)

Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.I. Pared JRI Again-Sold 12.661 shares at $16.31-Remaining Shares Bought With Dividends in Fidelity Taxable Account (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $53.03); Item # 2.C. Pared JRI-Sold 22.235 at $16.11(8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.31); Item # 2.A. Pared JRI-Sold 30 at $15.9-highest cost shares (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.73); Item # 1.K Eliminated JRI in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 100 at $11.48  (6/6/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.35); Item # 2.A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98 (12/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $140.67); Item # 1.A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51(10/30/19 Post )(profit snapshot = $100.41); Item # 4 Sold 100 JRI at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)   

JRI Realized Gains to Date = $480.92

I. Eliminated NJR-Sold 10 at $40.18

History: 

Quote: New Jersey Resources Corp. (NJR)

NJR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

NJR SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 12/31/21 

Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 10 NJR at $29.08 (11/21/20 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: +$111.01


NJR is a natural gas utility operating in New Jersey. Subsequent to selling NJR, another NJ natural gas utility South Jersey Industries Inc.  (SJI) , which I still own, agreed to be bought out at a premium price (see discussion in Item # 2.E. above). That development caused NJR's stock price to rise into the mid 40s range. 

Dividend: Quarterly at  $.363 per share 
Next Ex Dividend: 3/15/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release Earnings will be substantially impacted by the weather. 


"Re-affirmed fiscal 2022 net financial earnings per share (NFEPS) guidance range of $2.20 to $2.30"

J. Eliminated FTS- Sold 10 at $45.16:  


Quotes: 

USDs: Fortis Inc.

CADs: Fortis Inc.  (Canada: Toronto) 

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Website: Fortis

FTS SEC Filings (SEC Forms for foreign company)

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.K. Added to FTS-Bought 5 at $39.25; 5 at $38.71 (3/13/21 Post)Item # 3.A. Started FTS-Bought 5 at $40.25 (1/30/21 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$61.85

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.A. Pared FTS - Sold 5 at $46.25 (7/2/21 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.535

Next Ex Dividend: 5/16/22

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release 

All amounts in Canadian Dollars: 

GAAP E.P.S. at $.69

Non-GAAP at $.63

"For the fourth quarter of 2021, Net Earnings were $328 million, or $0.69 per common share, compared to $331 million or $0.71 per common share for the same period in 2020. Results for the quarter reflected a reduction in sales due to milder weather and lower investment gains in Arizona, the timing of earnings at FortisAlberta, and higher non-recoverable costs at Central Hudson and ITC. Lower hydroelectric production in Belize and the impact of foreign exchange also unfavourably impacted Net Earnings for the quarter. These factors were partially offset by growth in rate base, the finalization of Central Hudson's rate application, with retroactive application to July 1, 2021, and the favourable impact of mark-to-market accounting at Aitken Creek. The increase in the weighted average number of common shares also unfavourably impacted net earnings per common share in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2020."

GAAP to Non-GAAP: 

2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. at C$2.59, up from $2.57. 

Using a current CAD/USD exchange rate of about .78, the C$2.59 E.P.S. would convert into U.S.$2.20. Using that TTM E.P.S. number, the P/E at a US$45.16 price is about 22.36 with no meaningful Y-O-Y E.P.S. growth. 

Consider to Buy: My consider to buy price is currently below $40, partially due to concerns about interest rates rising faster than currently expected, thereby reducing the bond substitute appeal of this stock. I also view the P/E ratio at my sale price as high given the low earnings growth prospects.  

K. Eliminated Dominion Energy (D)- Sold 5 at $80.92 (Vanguard Taxable) and 5 at $81.95 (Fidelity Taxable)


Quote: Dominion Energy Inc

SEC Filings

Dominion Energy Inc Profile | Reuters

Investor Relations | Dominion Energy

2021 Annual Report 

Profit Snapshots:  +$72.41

+$43.79 

+$28.62

I mentioned in my last post that $80+ was my marker for considering sells. Item # 2.D. Eliminated D in Schwab Account- Sold 4 at $80.59 (3/3/22 Post) I have nothing substantive to add to that discussion. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.63 per share 

Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy

Last Ex Dividend:  3/3/22

I sold the 5 share lot held in my Vanguard account on the 3/3/22 ex dividend date and the second lot on 3/4/22.  

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.E. Pared D-Sold 2 at $80.23, 2 at $80.24 (5/14/21 Post)Item # 1.D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04 (8/8/20 Post)Item #1.D. Sold 13 D at $78.17 (6/20/20 Post)

My consider to buy range is now below $70. There are two reasons: the recent substantial dividend cut (previously discussed) and a potential rise in interest rates that make the current dividend yield far less attractive. 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.M. Added 2 D at $71.02 - Fidelity Taxable (12/22/21 Post)Item # 1.E. Added to D in Fidelity Account - Bought 1 at $72.79 (11/11/21 Post)Item # 3.H. Bought 2 D at $75.65; 1 at $75.19; 2 at 74.75-Vanguard Taxable (8/20/21 Post)Item # 1.E. Restarted D-Bought 4 at an AC of $71.64 (4/1/2021 Post)Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post)

Current Common Stock Position: None.  

Bond Position:  

Virginia Electric is a wholly owned subsidiary 

L. Added 1 PHG at $31.12; 1 at $30.41; 1 at $29.55





Quotes: 

USDs: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR

Euros: Koninklijke Philips N.V. (Euronext Amsterdam)

Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

The Euro has declined against the USD in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine which has pressured the USD ADR to the downside. 

New AC per share: $31.20 (5 shares)

I recently discussed this stock and have nothing further to add here: Item # 4.J. Bought 1 PHG at $33.03; 1 at $31.7 (2/24/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release

I am just averaging down in 1 share lots until I reach 10 shares.  

M. Added 5 ABB at $31.5



Quotes: 

USDs: ABB Ltd. ADR

Swiss Francs: ABB Ltd.   (Switzerland: SWX )

Swiss Franc to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

New Average Cost per share: $33.68  (15 shares)

I recently discussed this stock and have nothing further to add here: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 ABB at $34.78 (3/3/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Q4 2021 results | ABB

I am just averaging down in 5 share lots until I reach 100 shares. 

N. Pared VYGR in Fidelity Account-Sold 15 of 25 at $5.39 and Eliminated VYGR in Vanguard Account-Sold 20 at $5.42

Quote: 



Investment category: Lottery Ticket Basket



2021 SEC Filed Annual Report ("Our scientists have developed TRACER, a proprietary AAV capsid discovery platform to facilitate the selection of TRACER capsids with BBB crossing and cell-specific transduction properties for particular therapeutic applications. In May 2021, we presented new data demonstrating that we have developed a series of novel AAV capsids which, following intravenous administration, achieve up to 1000-fold higher RNA expression in the brain and 100-fold higher expression in the spinal cord of nonhuman primates than AAV9, the current natural AAV serotype with the best ability to ability to cross the BBB. We also identified a capsid which displayed strong cardiac transduction and significant dorsal root ganglia detargeting in nonhuman primates, which may avoid toxicities associated with AAV9 delivery. We believe these capsids may allow for significantly enhanced gene delivery to specific types of cells in the brain at lower doses. These capsids are now in advanced stages of characterization for deployment in our gene therapy development programs. We are also applying the TRACER discovery platform towards further capsid variant libraries and selection for tropism and transduction in additional cell and tissue types, such as cardiac and other tissues." There is nothing worthwhile that I can add to that summary and the other material in the Annual Report other than to note that it remains to be seen whether the drug discovery platform will lead to marketable drugs.  

Pipeline | Voyager Therapeutics (none of the compounds listed are in trials)

Profit Snapshots: +$41.97

15 shares +$13.57

20 Shares +$28.4

Remaining Shares Fidelity Account: 10 with an AC of $3.41

Snapshot Intraday on 3/8/22 after pare

I also still own 15 shares in my Schwab taxable account with an AC at $3.71



The shares popped on 3/8/22 (+33.33%) in response to this news: Voyager Therapeutics Announces License Option Agreement with Novartis ("Voyager will receive $54 million upfront and is entitled to receive up to $37.5 million in exercise fees for options for three initial CNS targets, exercisable by Novartis within 12 months of signing. In addition, Novartis may elect to evaluate capsids for up to two additional targets to be agreed on in the future, subject to their availability, for $18 million upon selection of each target, and a $12.5 million exercise fee for selection of a capsid for each target. Voyager is also eligible to earn up to $1.5 billion in potential development, regulatory, and commercial milestones for products utilizing Voyager licensed capsids, as well as mid- to high-single-digit tiered royalties based on net sales of Novartis products incorporating the licensed capsids.")

The shares popped last October in response to a license agreement with Pfizer but faded quickly thereafter. Voyager Therapeutics Announces License Option Agreement with Pfizer (10/6/21) The shares closed at $2.47 on 10/5/21 and at $3.87 the next day with volume at 203+M shares. The intraday high was hit a few days later at $5.73, closing that day at $5.55. The stock had drifted down to a $2.77 close on 12/14/21. I started to buy during that price drift down after the Pfizer license was announced.  

Last Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Voyager Therapeutics Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial and Operating Results | Voyager Therapeutics Inc. The company reported a GAAP profit of $.15 per share based on the Pfizer upfront license payment noted above. 

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities: $132+M 

The company expects to have enough cash to fund operations into 2024. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

28 comments:

  1. I think I'll try Shepard Smith for news tonight.

    Amazon split. I didn't hear any pre-announcement. For that stock, it will make a difference for retail buyers.

    An idea from CNBC, using Renaissance ETF as lead indicator of when the environment is strong again, when it bounces up.... as the IPO market gets moving again.

    CC went up 7% after you bought. I hadn't bought yet.

    The selloff was bought today. It still doesn't have capitulation. A CNBC guest said as well.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It looks like yesterday market for real believes talks could go somewhere.

    Today the guest on Shepard was still saying "if Putin doesn't negotiation, doesn't stop at Ukraine." Shepard pushed him - good to see.

    It's worrisome how many experts and politicians don't understand Putin's bottom feeding goals and style.

    This is pushing China closer to Russia.

    I haven't heard on media mention of the bigotry at Slavs in that part of the world, Ukrainians being Slavs.

    I don't remember much - I remember better how awful the Ukranians were to Jews during the Holocaust, some outdoing the Nazis. Bring up Ukraine in a survivor meeting and a shutter goes through the room. But then there was the targeting of Slavs by Nazis has being in cahoots with Jews.

    https://www.ushmm.org/search/results/?q=slavs

    ""Putin says Ukraine may lose its sovereignty if its citizens continue resisting Russian occupation.""

    As the abuser's moto goes, if you stop fighting when I hit and control you, then it will be easier for both of us.

    ""In their joint statement, the two totalitarian states said that they want to bring true democracy to the world. ""

    Well then okay.

    I read that Trump has yet to post to his new social media platform (that failed on it's first day).

    ---

    CNBC is filling in with a new show focused on Tech. Seems strange after this drop. Are they picking up on continued over-exuberance for high PE growth stocks...?

    Hanes is interesting - by now the Target decision is built in. I was on the worried buyer end that I have some basic clothes I buy at Target. But they're still there (aren't Champion._Once people are moving around and wearing out clothes, classic brands will be bought more.

    Quest makes me think to look at Labcorp. I like dealing with them better as a customer.

    In Jan Zacks had it as a #1 buy FWIW:
    https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/413382

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Russia will not negotiate anything other than Ukraine's subjugation.

      CBS news had some video showing the remains of Russian soldiers in destroyed tanks and other burnt out vehicles. The Russians just leave them there, nothing but cannon fodder for Putin. Those images will not be shown on Putin TV, nor will the videos of destroyed hospitals, shopping malls, apartment buildings, single family residences, and other civilian structures.

      This war will just grind on, probably for years, and the Russian people will never be told the truth by their government.

      Some facts are clear and will be understood by informed Russians. Putin has already destroyed Russia's currency and stock market and is now sending its economy into a downward tailspin that will be long lasting. Most Western nations and companies no longer want anything to do with them. The Russians can start vacationing in North Korea.

      I am still in a net stock selling mode, though that may change if and when I "feel" better about taking risks than I am now.

      With the rise in interest starting back up, I may start to look for some "A-" or better $1K par value corporate bonds that mature within 3 or 4 years.

      Delete
  3. Here's an upbeat comment on the military strategy:

    Like the Finnish in Winter war with Russia.
    Stretch out the supply lines then cut them off.
    https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

    Time to watch those SNL skits I missed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: Putin is not looking for an off ramp. Investors need to pay attention only to what Russia does in Ukraine and their actions point only to total conquest irrespective of the consequences.

      If the stock market rally earlier today was based on a hope that negotiations may end the conflict short of Putin achieving this Russian objective, then the rally was delusional.

      The U.S. has now banned several well known Russian products from export to the U.S. and Biden will be seeking congressional approval to revoke Russia's most favored nation trade status, which I expect to happen fairly soon. Europe is setting in motion the same cancellation.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/biden-will-push-to-end-russias-most-favored-nation-trade-status.html

      Putin is destroying the Russian economy for generations to come and for no reason that would make any sense to an informed sentient being. Maybe it would make sense to those fools who believe the most current made up Russian and Chinese propaganda that the U.S. and Ukraine were developing biological weapons that would harm only Slavs.

      Delete
    2. Agree very much Putin's not stopping or looking for an off ramp.

      His comments about negotiations look like cover while he makes war, but to distract the NATO allies into considering that... while they let him take over Ukraine...

      Expecting anything else than continued Russian attack is...delusional is a good word.

      ---

      The strategy above was a possible way Ukraine could win... which was done successfully to Russia by the Finish. I don't know military strategy, but I hope there are methods.

      Recent downmove is probably from this:

      Kyiv independent:
      " Russian jets strike at Belarussian territory from Ukrainian air space.

      Russian aircraft allegedly attacked Belarus village Kopani from the Ukrainian air space. Ukraine considers the attack to be a provocation to drag Belarus into Russia’s war in Ukraine."

      ---

      There's twitter accounts spreading the propaganda. They pretend to be other backgrounds to be legit. They're older accounts, intimidating well... this type of bot /trolling's, been in the works for a while.

      Delete
    3. LAND: The tactics used by Finland when Russia invaded in 1939 are well known.

      Orders were given early in Russia's invasion of Ukraine to hit fuel trucks before targeting other vehicles.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4kItqeUoLU

      The attacks on Russia's supply line are being conducted by relatively small units operating independently using hit and run tactics.

      Russia's invasion of Finland started soon after Russian and Nazi Germany successfully invaded Poland and partitioned that country between them.

      https://www.britannica.com/event/Russo-Finnish-War

      Delete
    4. It is well known - even I'd heard about it before. And I'd purposely not read any of the war history books at the school library.

      I liked tha it was something optimistic, because it's not looking good at all.

      That explains some news I'd hear early about Russian units being out of gas. A good technique.

      Delete
    5. I've been running a fever for days after each treatment. (I think it's good - immune system is revved up and working on things.) But hopefully I'm writing coherently enough.


      I can not understand why investors keep thinking there's possible quick good resolution to this, to rally on. It's like we didn't live through 4-5 years of Trump, Putin's understudy.

      Delete
    6. Land: Putin claimed today that he did not start the war by invading Ukraine, or when he used his military to seize control of Crimea or when he started a proxy war in eastern Ukraine. Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 8 years.

      Most Russians support this aggression:

      https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/



      There will be an abundance of Russians who will believe his lies but at least Russians have an excuse given the government prohibiting the dissemination of accurate factual information by a free news media.

      In the U.S. where access to reliable information is readily and easily available, and even after Trump made 35,000+ documented false statements publicly made during his Presidency, 81% of republicans believe that he is honest.

      Believing preposterous and false propaganda knows no country boundaries even when citizens have access to reliable information that demolishes the false narratives.

      Tucker Carlson is an example of someone at Fox who is parroting Putin's talking points and many people believe that he is telling it like it is. I would assume that he does have viewers who are not stupid and ignorant, though many are probably wilfully ignorant and not very bright.


      https://www.mediaite.com/tv/jonathan-karl-accuses-tucker-carlson-of-plagiarism-of-vladimir-putin-its-almost-word-for-word/

      ++

      I did go ahead and buy today in a Roth IRA account two separate $1K par value first mortgage bonds. The purchases were below par value with YTMs near 3% and maturities in 2026. I view them as decent yield alternatives whose interest payments become tax free in the Roth. I will not be discussing those trades.

      I will never touch funds in my Roth IRAs. If by some ill fortune I am required to do so, the money needs to be there rather than in money heaven.

      Delete
    7. The disinformation belief is stunning.

      The first hints of buyable bonds.

      3% tax free isn't bad for 4 years.

      I probably should aim higher or longer term for my retirement stability.

      But my dad (parents) sold out of the market in Jan 2020 of all good times. My dad had a feeling things had been good and it wouldn't last.

      He's earning 0% on his money.

      So bonds might be very good. He doesn't need most right away. But he's been living off it. Will be better when he's home and stops paying rents & car rentals elsewhere. He has no Roth or retirement type account. I've been starting to think of what to suggest to him.

      Delete
    8. Mentioned 7% inflation to my niece tonight. She had no idea there was inflation already or that high. (Now she does.) Though it was first coming from the energy/oil freezes because of Russia. She's in college, but old enough to vote.

      Delete
  4. The stock market rallied earlier today based on a report that Putin saw "positive shifts" in the negotiations which he claimed were ongoing almost on a daily basis.

    The only observable positive shift from Putin's perspective is that Russia is murdering more Ukrainian civilians.

    Missile attacks against civilian targets in Dnipro, located in central Ukraine, included leveling a shoe factory, a kindergarten and 8 apartment buildings.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-airstrikes-hit-kindergarten-homes-shoe-factory-in-dnipro-ukraine/vi-AAUVSK6

    It looks like the U.S. and other nations are going to revoke Russia's most favored trade status which will allow them to impose tariffs on Russia's exports.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-03-11/us-allies-to-revoke-most-favored-nation-status-for-russia

    Russia retaliated against sanctions by prohibiting exports of various products, just another effort by Putin to wreck Russia's economy.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-bans-export-of-over-200-products-but-no-mention-of-energy-11646988638

    I see no tangible reason supporting optimism on a negotiated settlement.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yep. You said what I saw.

    If Putin sees potential positive in the negotiations he's using that as cover, to look like he's been weakened and wants to back out.

    It may very well be the time to buy... Because Putin uses that cover as he takes over Ukraine and other countries watch and then shrugs their shoulders about how disappointing. And supposed peace comes.

    Glad to hear they're at least adding more sanctions.

    I'm not buying yet.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I hope I'm completely wrong on the scenario I laid out, and this is just interim word games that mean nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  7. So far all I've heard is a variety of conflicting scuttlebutt about the Iranian missiles that hit the empty US consulate building.

    It's supposedly Solemani's anniversary.

    There's the utterly silly claim that it was meant for a mossad target. Since one sends multiple missions for a person (target) that aren't well directed. Or mossad opened an official office in foreign country?

    There were 12 missiles or 3 missiles.

    Iraq claimed the missiles but didn't mean to hit the US.

    All while they're getting a very sweet negotiated deal.

    They're a Russian ally, so Putin ask for a distractor?

    Israel hit two Iranian military in Syria when they took out a weapons delivery headed for Hizbollah (against 2005 war ceasefire) a few days ago.

    I'm trying to remember if 1984 described this stage of controlled and fake news, where it disintegrates to scuttle butt. This isn't the only news story that's this randomly reported recently.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Land: Iran's Revolutionary Guard admits that it launched a missile strike against the U.S. Consulate in Irbil, Iraq, calling it a den of Israeli spies, which was unoccupied. The news reports so far are in conflict as to whether the building was damaged but it appears the missiles only hit some buildings in the vicinity.

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/missiles-target-us-consulate-north-iraq-casualties-83412862

    A new Iran nuclear deal was apparently nearing completion, but Russia made demands relating to sanctions against it and the U.S. will not negotiate Russia's linkage:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-wont-negotiate-sanctions-with-russia-to-save-iran-nuclear-deal/ar-AAUZJ91?li=BBnb7Kz

    While the U.S. may try to conclude a deal without Russia I doubt that Iran would go along with that approach.


    That development and other events over the weekend, including military actions taken by Russia, may pressure crude oil when trading opens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not inclined to take Iran at their word. Especially with the crazy idea that they spotted a den of spies. Since spies always collect in groups, in vulnerable locations...

      So this is how the Iran deal falls apart? The opinions have been that it was weaker than the last deal, and not a good idea... from people who supported the last one. So this may be for the best.


      Delete
  9. Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)
    $5.05 -$5.58 -52.49%
    Last Updated: Mar 14, 2022 at 9:49 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nktr?mod=over_search

    I recently discussed restarting this Lotto with a 10 share purchase at a less than optimal price of $10.59

    Item # 4.F.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/02/amgn-axunca-eaf-dea-econ-gty-hban-mtb.html

    I mentioned in that post that this Lottery Ticket would need a positive trial result, which would soon be released, to work. Needless to say, that did not happen.

    https://ir.nektar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bristol-myers-squibb-and-nektar-announce-update-phase-3-pivot-io

    I have another Lotto, AKBA, that is awaiting news on whether the FDA will approve its main drug with an action date of 3/29/22. The same price action or worse could be reasonably expected if the FDA fails to prove.

    ++

    Crude is falling this morning on the hope that a meeting today between Ukraine and Russia will go well. I do not see a factual basis for optimism. Maybe Russia will quit shelling apartment buildings, civilians trying to flee, hospitals, and humanitarian convoys bringing food and medicine to those in need.

    +++

    Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
    $24.80 -$0.06 -0.24%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eai?mod=over_search

    I recently discussed a purchase in this post:

    Item # 2.G.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/03/abb-d-eai-etsy-flbr-gty-kio-kpti-kref.html

    In that post, I mentioned that this exchange traded bond had declined in the past based on unfounded fears of credit risk. This latest decline below the $25 par value is based on interest rate risk concerns IMO.

    The issuer recently sold 200M of 4.2% FM bonds that mature in 2049 at close to a 6% premium to par value. Those bonds have a $1K par value and a make whole provision.


    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7323/000006598422000024/d318583d424b2.htm

    In the Use of Proceeds section (page S-3), the issuer does not state an intent to redeem EAI at its $25 par value, which normally would be the case if proceeds were going to be used for a bond redemption. The issuer can redeem EAI now at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.

    This bond has more appeal to me in a Roth IRA account where its otherwise taxable interest payments become tax free.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I briefly thought about posting this morning that the market was up over optimism on negotiations. But it was so redundant that I didn't.

      I do not understand how people can not get what Putin is.

      I don't see any off ramp for him. Even with great losses, I don't see a backing out, unless one of this FSB spies kills him.

      It's starting to be possible to do short term trading based on this optimism that gets quickly dashed.

      My dad's coming tomorrow for an indeterminate amount of time until he's ready to go home. He's coming to help me, or make each other crazy. We'll see.

      I'd made the decision not to sell as it goes down. I've stuck with that.

      I'm still hoping there's enough crash to pick up stocks inexpensively to be comfortable with their valuations, even if it goes down more after.

      Delete
    2. Land: Putin has passed the point of no return. Ukraine is not going to surrender and Russia will continue leveling cities into rubble and murdering vast numbers of Ukrainian civilians.

      There will not be much left when and if Russia is successful in replacing the democratically elected government whose President is a Jewish comedian who has proven to be a far more capable leader than the Vlad the Impaler, just another small minded, violent, psychopathic autocrat who is not very smart, which he tries to hide unsuccessfully with a somber and serious look.

      President Zelensky, who lost relatives in the Holocaust, is depicted in Russian propaganda as a Nazi.

      https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/zelensky-ukraine-president-jewish-hero/622945/

      The Nazis are in Russia of course.

      Russia's economy is doomed, probably for more than a generation. That totalitarian state will soon default on its debt. When Russia last defaulted in 1998 and devalued the Ruble, which has been devalued into a near worthless currency without Russian Central Bank action this time, the International Monetary Fund quickly gave Russia a bailout of $22.6B, but that will not happen this time. Russia is just too toxic for any world organization to assist them in any way.

      I am seeing significant adverse repercussions already in other emerging market sovereign debt, as part of an ongoing risk off trade.

      Delete
  10. WTI fell almost 7% today. The trigger was apparently a WSJ article that Biden would loosen up sanctions against Venezuela to permit more U.S. crude deliveries.

    That possibility has been bandied about for about a week now, so I would attribute the slide today more to profit taking, using that development and possibly more concerns about demand destruction as the excuses.

    There was a pop in interest rates that sent most of my regional bank stocks into the green despite the stock market's downdraft.

    The ETF KRE closed at $70.39, up $.37:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=over_search

    The ten year treasury is currently up about 15 basis points to 2.15%.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

    I am starting to look for bonds to buy and bought a MS SU bond maturing in 2026 with about a 3.4% YTM. I have so far confined those purchases in Roth IRA accounts where I turn taxable interest into tax free interest. I am more focused in those accounts on the return of my money rather than the return on it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Bloomberg's guess is that lower oil prices are why the rally.

    Biden signed an EO on higher debt. That could contribute...

    Tomorrow when Fed raises rates, I expect a rally.

    None of this has the look of a bottom when China's threatening to help Russia... and Iran is getting set up (being given) what's needed to be emboldened (in Syria...)

    Chip companies are going down because Apple and others are going in house to build. But, in my view, as they design then farm out the actual building to companies that already have the expensive facilities... chip company earnings will reflect it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I look at what is happening in the markets as irrational behavior with pricing determined by traders. Just about anything can cause the herd to stampede in one direction and then another.

      WTI crude hit a 14 year high on March 8th and is now in a bear market having fallen 22%.

      The gyrations can not be rationally explained by facts.

      The rapid decline in crude oil prices and gold have probably given some comfort to stock investors, but that is not an emotion that takes hold for more than a few hours or days.

      The Fed's increase in the FF rate tomorrow is meaningless and reflects a monetary policy that will not even begin to combat inflationary pressures.

      The rate increase will not cause broker money markets to pay more than .01%. Many have effectively reduced their expense ratios to near zero from much higher levels. It may take two 25 basis points increases for those funds to increase their yields to over .01% as they abandon their fee waivers.

      Investment grade corporate bonds are looking better as an alternative for me given the rise in yields.

      I am able now to replace some maturing bonds with new ones, maturing in 2026, that have higher yields. I will give an example in my next post.

      I am selling electric utility stocks. Among those sold this week are AEP, DUK, ETR and EVRG.

      Delete
  12. The VIX model expresses this stage well.

    Trader moves is a good point.

    I don't own any utilities. They were high when I looked, and so I never bought.

    Even a 22% drop in a subsector that just climbed out of hole to new highs... is an illogical move.

    If I can spot a trading tread, I'll invest. But mostly I'm being cautious.

    Bonds are complicated. I'll read what you found :).

    ReplyDelete
  13. Looking at the stock prices today, I thought that maybe peace had broken out in Ukraine. The defense stocks fell hard, as an example, with LMT was down $27.33, closing at $421.34. I barely have a position, owning just 2.4+ shares at an AC of $337+. In other words, I don't care.

    So I turned on CNN to watch Putin and Zelinsky exchanging flowers and chocolates but instead found more videos and stories about Russia attacking civilian targets and wondered how that fit into peace is at hand or soon will be narrative.

    E.G.

    "Russian strike hits theater in Mariupol sheltering "hundreds" of residents"
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-strike-theater-mariupol-residents-ukraine-foreign-minister-says/


    Biden and Vlad the Impaler do not sound like they will be exchanging Christmas cards this year.

    "Biden calls Putin a "war criminal" in sharpest condemnation since Ukraine invasion"
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-putin-war-criminal/

    ReplyDelete
  14. The market WANTS to rally! The news gosh darn it, isn't cooperating.

    " Putin and Zelinsky exchanging flowers and chocolates"

    Lol. Maybe there's a giant sale on weed?

    Even with a $27 drop LMT is no where near a buy point. I bought in mid-300's.

    Biden's calling Putin a war criminal, while saying he won't go to war, and using Russia in Iranian negotiations, which he's doing even though Iranian fired on/near USA targets. And will without doubt build nuclear weapons if they can.

    The market dropped sharply with the rate announcement. That by itself points to... investors didn't expect that and it wasn't baked in? How? Then it rallied like big money came in and timed it.

    Meanwhile .25% won't change anything.

    The weather was nice today. I'll focus on that.



    ReplyDelete
  15. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/03/amkby-bp-culp-enb-fan-fb-fhb-fsphx-kio.html

    ReplyDelete