Economy:
April PCE Inflation:
Month-To-Month PCE inflation +.3%
Month-To-Month PCE Core inflation: .2%
Annual PCE Inflation: 2.7%
Annual Core PCE Inflation: 2.8%
Those numbers are not going to cause investors to have an anxiety attack. The response so far today is slightly positive for bonds and stocks.
The PCE measure for shelter was up 5.6% Y-O-Y in April. Owners equivalent rent is a component of PCE inflation but is weighted at a lower level than in the CPI calculation.
Fed's Kashkari wants 'many more months' of positive inflation data before rate cut
Pending Home Sales Slumped 7.7% in April I believe that many median income households, possibly a majority, have been priced out of buying median price homes as first time home buyers. That is due to the increases in home prices, home insurance, property taxes and mortgage rates.
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000
Treasury Note Purchased at Auction: $1,000
Treasury Note Purchased Secondary Market: $1,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $10,000
CDs - FDIC Insured: $3,000
Common Stocks: -$964.69
(Consisting of $1,624.16 in proceeds minus $659.47 in purchases)
Outflow Stock Funds: -$562.01
Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$1,526.7
2024 Outflow Stocks/Stocks Funds: -$31,309.71
++
ConocoPhillips to buy Marathon Oil (MRO) in $17 billion all-stock deal that bolsters shale assets I do not own MRO. I own 1 MRO 4.4% SU bond that matures in 2027. Bond Page | FINRA.org The current SU bond credit ratings for MRO are Baa3/BBB-. Conoco SU debt ratings from Moody's and S&P are currently at A2/A-. Fitch is at an A. Fitch Affirms ConocoPhillips at 'A'; Outlook Stable (12/5/23).
I am expecting the consolidation trend in the E&P sector to continue.
++++
Demagogue Don and His Party:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Trump: "One thing I do is, any student that protests, I throw them out of the country. You know, there are a lot of foreign students. As soon as they hear that, they’re going to behave." Trump Has a New Plan to Deal With Campus Protests - The Atlantic; Trump told donors he will crush pro-Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators - The Washington Post
Trump blamed Biden and the democrats for his NY felony convictions.
The unanimous jury verdict will probably have a limited impact on Trump's support among republicans who will not examine, in good faith, the evidence supporting any of the state or federal felony charges. In TrumpWorld, Trump is an honest, law and order, family values republican who actually cares deeply about his supporters and is obviously the "extremely stable genius" that he claims to be.
The NY criminal case is the least strong of the criminal cases IMO. The strongest criminal case is the obstruction of justice counts in the documents case, but Judge Cannon is not going to permit a trial before the election. The Republican Supreme Court Justices have likely delayed the insurrection trial until after the election.
Given the time that it will take to exhaust Trump's appeal, Trump is unlikely to spend time in prison before the election.
Excerpt from Trump's Memorial Day Message: "Happy Memorial Day to All, including the Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country, & to the Radical Left, Trump Hating Federal Judge in New York that presided over, get this, TWO separate trials, that awarded a woman, who I never met before (a quick handshake at a celebrity event, 25 years ago, doesn’t count!), 91 MILLION DOLLARS for “‘DEFAMATION.’" Truth Social
Trump Last Sunday: "There is NO CASE, just a Democrat Persecutor controlled by Crooked Joe Biden’s White House, a Democrat Judge, and a biased venue. This is nothing but an Election Interfering Witch Hunt, and the American People know it! MAGA2024."
Trump: "WHY IS THE CORRUPT GOVERNMENT ALLOWED TO MAKE THE FINAL ARGUMENT IN THE CASE AGAINST ME? WHY CAN'T THE DEFENSE GO LAST? BIG ADVANTAGE, VERY UNFAIR. WITCH HUNT". Since the government bears the burden of proof in a criminal case, it is standard practice for the prosecution to make the final argument to the jury.
Will Trump supporters ever become exhausted reading or listening to the deranged statements made by their revered Dear Leader?
Fact check: Trump delivers flurry of false and misleading claims as trial nears conclusion Trump is not capable of being truthful.
'There is no real choice this November': Ken Burns gives powerful defense of democracy - YouTube
Mark Robinson Is Testing the Bounds of GOP Extremism - The Atlantic (My Video: Mark Robinson Republican Candidate for the N C Governor and Likely Primary Winner - YouTube)
Justice Alito's Upside-Down Flag Claim Dismantled by Police, Neighbors: Report
'Apprentice' producer details Trump’s alleged use of racial slur on hit reality show
Even as the judicial system finds Trump guilty, his attacks take a toll - The Washington Post Republicans no longer even try to defend the judicial process as a result of Trump's persistent and long-standing efforts to undermine faith in the judicial system including jury verdicts. Trump has also succeeded in undermining faith in voting, vote tabulations, and other institutions (e.g the media) and processes necessary for a properly functioning democracy. The Republican party has "turned against democratic institutions". Facts are Fake News in Trump's America.
++++
Psychopath Putin and His Violent Orwellian Autocracy:
Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting — documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Security cam shows moment hardware store was hit by Russian missile - YouTube Russia targeted a market in Kharkiv, murdering and injuring civilians. Russia waited until the store was filled on a Saturday with over 200 civilians before targeting them. Russia bombs market in Kharkiv, killing at least 6 and wounding 40 - The Washington Post; Russia strikes hardware store in Kharkiv | CNN
Four ATACMS Missiles Hit Black Sea Fleet Communications Centre in Alushta, Crimea - YouTube Russian air defense systems have proven to be inadequate.
Russia Steps Up a Covert Sabotage Campaign Aimed at Europe - The New York Times Russians are committing arson attacks at a wide range of sites "including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania."
Big ATACMS Strike at Luhansk Airfield (Possibly Repair Facility) - YouTube
One Russian Su-27 and Possible Su-34 Confirmed Destroyed at Kushchyovskaya Air Base - YouTube
Eight UAZ-452 Bukhankas Destroyed in Kharkiv. Ukraine Hits Supply Lines - YouTube
Kerch Area Attacked Again -- Drones Hit Oil Depot at Port Kavkaz - YouTube
Putin's meatgrinder tactics lead to devastating tank losses | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon - YouTube
Invading Ukraine was an act of lunacy that has had and will continue to have only negative outcomes for Russia and its citizens.
++++
1. Small Ball Buys:
A. Restarted GILD in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $64.83:
The preceding snapshot includes my last sell transactions in this account.
Quote: Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Cost: $324.15
GILD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Virology, Oncology and Inflammation Pipeline | Gilead
2023 Product Revenues Compared to 2022 and 2021:
 |
| Page 64, Annual Report |
Last Sell Discussion: Item #6.F. Eliminated GILD - Sold 10+ at $82.99; 6+ at $83.01; 1 at $83.83 (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $394.47)
B. Added to WBA - Bought 5 at $16.01; 5 at $15.5; 5 at $14.9:
Cost: $232.05
WBA has several problems that I have discussed in previous posts. Notwithstanding these problems, the company did report $139+B in sales in the fiscal year ending 8/31/23: Annual Report at page 42
The price to sales ratio is .1%. WBA Key Metrics - Reuters
WBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 5/24/24, the consensus 2024 E.P.S. was at $3.29; at $3.69 for 2025; and at $3.96 for 2026. The current price reflects a consensus opinion that those estimates are far too high.
Investment Strategy: Possibly, Bordering on Probable, Masochistic Contrarian Value
New average cost per share: $17.33 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, slashed from $.48 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Yield at $17.33: 5.77%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/20/24 (owned 20 shares as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 5 WBA at $17.24 (5/10/24 Post)
Recent News Since Last Discussion: Walgreens Boots Alliance Sells Shares of Cencora for $400 Million of Proceeds (5/22/24) This transactions reduced Walgreens ownership stake to 12% from 13%. Cencora Inc. (COR)
Walgreens contacts potential buyers for Boots UK chain, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters (5/13/24).
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.E. Added to WBA - Bought 5 at $17.75 (4/19/24 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release
C. Added to O - Bought 1 at $52.2; 1 at $51.07:
Quote: Realty Income Corp. (O) - Net Lease Reit
Cost: $103.27
Owns a portfolio of over 15,450 properties in all 50 states, the U.K. and 6 other European countries.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Homepage | Realty Income
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 5 O at $51.44 (3/22/24 Post) I discussed the 2023 4th quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.G. Pared Realty Income (O) - Sold 5 at $59 (1/12/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $52.31 (32+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.2625 per share ($3.15 annually), last raised from $.2570 effective for the June payment.
Dividend Payment Information | Realty Income
Dividend increases are frequent but in small fractions of 1 cent.
For the June 2014 payment, the dividend was at $.1828. It may take another 5 to 10 years for the dividend to double from that payment.
Yield at AC Using $3.15 Annual: 6.02%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/3/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
AFFO per share: $1.03, up from $.98
Revenue: $1.2605B
The primary adjustments to FFO are to deduct pretend revenue created by the straight line accounting convention and then to add certain non-cash expenses:
As a net lease REIT, the tenants are responsible for maintenance expenditures.
I own 2 SU bonds that mature on 1/15/27. Bond Page | FINRA.org
One potential problematic tenant is Walgreens. Realty Income leases 403 properties to WBA which accounted for 3.4% of the total portfolio using annualized contractual rent.
Another problem is that 216 properties are leased to Red Lobster that has filed for bankruptcy (see Supplemental at page 17). Red Lobster location closures: See full list of 99 closed restaurants 201 of the Red Lobster properties are included in a master lease.
Realty Income (O) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool Other potential problems are discussed in that earnings call including AMC Entertainment and Family Dollar.
Family Dollar is owned by Dollar Tree that has announced store closures. Dollar Tree SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 2/3/24 ("we plan on closing approximately 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of fiscal 2024. Additionally, approximately 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores will close over the next several years at the end of each store’s current lease term.") Dollar Tree operated 15,000 Family Dollar stores as of 2/3/24. Page 6
I am not aware of how many of the store closures will involve those leased by Realty Income.
These retail store closings are restraining Realty Income's stock price and are a significant negative factor.
Largest Realized Gain: Item # 1. Eliminated Realty Income (O)- Sold 100 at $52.37 -Seeking Alpha (1/21/16 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,579.6).
2. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated DPG - Sold 26+ at $10:
Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. Overview
Proceeds: +$264.
DPG is a leverage CEF that primarily owns utility and energy infrastructure stocks.
Profit Snapshot: +$27.75
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $8.83 (2/15/24 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $7.99 (10/14/23 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to DPG - Bought 5 at $9.13 (9/16/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Restarted DPG - Bought 10 at $9.68 (8/12/23 Post)
Leveraged: Yes at close to 27%
SEC Filed Annual Report for the period ending 10/31/23
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share ($.84 annually), slashed from $.35 effective for the 2023 third quarter.
DPG Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Sponsor's website: Duff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc.
Data Date of 5/23/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $11.15
Closing Market Price: $9.87
Discount: -11.48%
Sourced: DPG - CEF Connect
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated DPG in Schwab Account - Sold 390+ at $14.57 (6/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $132.63)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.F. Eliminated DPG in Fidelity taxable account-Sold 21+ at $13.03 (3/20/21 Post); Item # 1.K. Pared DPG-Sold 5 at $11.82 (1/16/21 Post); Item # 2.D. Sold 15 DPG at $11.62 (12/12/20 Post)(contains snapshots of prior DPG trades = +$887.88)
Current Position: None
B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in UL - Sold 28+ at $54.71 (Schwab Account):
Proceeds: $1,535.86
Unilever ADRs use to trade under both the UL and UN symbols, with the later being the Unilever based in the Netherlands whose ordinary shares were traded in Euros. The two entities combined with UL being the surviving ADR with its ordinary shares traded in British Pence. Completion of Unilever’s Unification | Unilever The U.K., unlike the Netherlands, does not currently withhold a dividend tax. I do have to pay a fee out of the dividend to the ADR custodian.
UL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
All brands | Unilever global company website
UL SEC Filings (foreign company SEC Forms)
2023 Results:
Profit Snapshot: +$100.95
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added to UL in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $47 (1/26/24 Post); Item # 1.E. Bought 2 UL at $47.16 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to UL - Bought 1 at $48.12; 3 at $48.36 (11/18/23 Post); Item # 1.P. Added to UL in Fidelity Account - Bought 1 at $43.03 (4/25/22 Post); Item #2.I. Added to UL in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 2 at $42.55 (6/9/22 Post)
Dividends: The quarterly rate will vary depending on the currency exchange rate.
Unilever PLC Common Stock (UL) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/24 for US$.4556 per ADR share (owned all as of)
Last Financial Report (Q/E 3/31/24): For the first and third quarters, UL, like many European companies, only reports revenues.
Average Cost Remaining Taxable Account Position (Fidelity): $50.45 (41+ shares)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 5.A. Eliminated UL in Vanguard Account - Sold 8 at $55.33 (4/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.47 )
UL/UN Realized Gains to Date: $3,749.01 (prior trade snapshots at Item # 5.A.)
Largest Gain: 70 shares at a +$2,412.5 profit, bought in March 2009 and sold in 2018:
C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in BSTZ - Sold 15+ at $19.75:
Quote: BlackRock Science & Technology Term Trust Overview - Stock CEF
Proceeds: $298.01
Investment Strategy: Monthly Income Generation.
Sponsor's website: Science and Technology Term Trust
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report This document includes information about several BlackRock CEFs. Information about BSTZ holdings starts at page 109.
Profit Snapshot: $44.2
Remaining Position: 30 shares at an average cost of $16.89 per share.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to BSTZ - Bought 5 at $16.76; 5 at $16.5 (1/6/24 Post)
Data Date of 5/29/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $22.56
Closing Market Price: $19.65
Discount: -12.9%
Sourced: BSTZ - CEF Connect
As previously discussed, this CEF has significant equity positions in private companies. Placing a value on those positions is at best guesswork and consequently the claimed net asset value per share, even if made in good faith, is not reliable. Item # 3.I. Started BSTZ - Bought 10 at $17.03; 10 at $17 (12/23/23 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate.
D. Pared CGBD in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $17.66:
I sold the highest cost lots purchased with dividends.
Proceeds: $88.3
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Pared Duplicate Position in CGBD - Sold 9 at $17.57 (Schwab Account) (5/10/24 Post)
I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Earnings Presentation
Profit Snapshot: $12.76
New Average cost per share this account: $11.36 (56+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 5/29/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4 per share (regular dividend)
CGBD Stock Dividend History & Date
This BDC has paid several special dividends.
Yield at $11.36: 14.08% (regular dividend only):
Last Ex Dividend: 3/27/24 (regular and $.07 per share special)
3. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 FirstEnergy 2.05% SU Maturing on 3/1/25 at a Total Cost of 97.2:
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Issuer: FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) - Utility Holding Company
Most of the total return will be taxed in 2025. ("profit" of $56 and 1 semiannual interest payment) The realized gain at a bond's maturity is generally taxed as interest rather than a capital gain.
Operating Utilities- Electric Companies
FE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report A scandal described at pages 10-11 has negatively impacted the company, see also Ohio nuclear bribery scandal - Wikipedia; Ohio ratepayers still paying for HB6 despite First Energy indictments
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
In March 2023, Moody's upgraded the SU debt to Baa3 from Ba1. This was in response to FE selling an additional ownership interest in FirstEnergy Transmission for approximately $3.5B. FirstEnergy Closes on $3.5 Billion FirstEnergy Transmission, LLC 30% Interest Sale
YTM at Total Cost: 5.805%
Current yield at TC = 2.11%
B. Bought 1 Labcorp Holdings 3.6% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.677:
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Issuer: Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH)
LH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
LH SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.5755%
Current Yield at TC = 3.648%
I now own 3 bonds.
C. Bought 2 Blue Owl Capital 3.75% SU Maturing on 7/22/25 at a Total Cost of 97.313:
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Issuer: Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC)-formerly known as Owl Rock Capital.
I have a small ball position in the common stock which was formerly traded under the ORCC symbol.
Last OBDC Buy Discussion: Item # 3.F. Added to ORCC in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $11.14 (10/4/22 Post)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24 "As of March 31, 2024, loans on non-accrual represented 1.8% of the total fair value of the debt portfolio."
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/24 (summary of investments starts at page 4)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings Moody's and S&P: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 6.178%
Current Yield at TC = 3.85%
The stock of the external manager is publicly traded: Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL)
D. Bought 2 Constellation Brands 4.75% SU Maturing on 12/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.874:
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Issuer: Constellation Brands Inc. Cl A (STZ)
STZ Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
STZ SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 2/29/24
STZ SEC Filed Earnings Report for the F/Q Ending 2/29/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.538%
Current Yield at TC = 4.8%
E. Bought 1 Kinder Morgan 4.3% SU Maturing on 6/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.72:
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I own 100 shares of the common stock. Item # 1. Bought 100 KMI in Vanguard Taxable Account at $15.89 (1/7/22 Post)
I previously eliminated my duplicate positions: Item # 3.E. Eliminated KMI in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 10 at $17.34 and 17+ at $17,37 (2/27/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $148.46)
KMI SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.623%
Current Yield at TC = 4.356%
I now own 2 bonds.
F. Bought 2 Citizens Financial 4.35% SU Maturing on 8/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.225:
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Issuer: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG) - Bank Holding Company
CFG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 5.933%
Current Yield at TC = 4.429%
4. Treasury Bills and Notes purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 5/28/24 Auction:
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183 Day Bill
Matures on 11/29/24
Interest: $131.4
Investment Rate: 5.383%
B. Bought 1 Treasury Note at the 5/28/24 Auction:
Coupon: 4.875%
Yield with OID: 4.917%
OID: Original Issue Discount.
4. CDs - FDIC Insured:
A. Bought 1 Associated Bank 5.3% CD Maturing on 5/30/25:
Interest paid at maturity.
B. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 5.2% CD Maturing on 11/28/25:
Interest paid monthly.
C. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 5.05% CD Maturing on 6/4/26:
Interest Paid Monthly.
5. Treasury Note - Purchased Secondary Market:
A. Added 1 Treasury Note 4.625% Coupon Maturing on 2/28/26:
%202:28:26%204.625%25%20.png){kind=small}
YTM: 5.045%
Current Yield at 4.658%
I now own 2.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
