Saturday, October 4, 2025

AHHPRA, APA, ETW, GMAB, GOOD, JRI, KBWY, KRG, MAA, OLP, PEO, SBSI, UNB

Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount

Inflow in Tennessee Municipal Bond (5): $4,302.5

Inflow Corporate Bonds (2): $1,967

Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,390.93

Outflow Stock/Stock Funds: $1,736.67

Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Funds: $405.59

Net Outflow Stock/Stock Funds: $345.74

Inflow U.S. REIT Preferred Stock: $216.5

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Odds of a .25% Cut in the FF range on 10/29/25: 96.2%, FedWatch - CME Group

10 Year Breakeven Inflation rate as of 10/3/25: 2.33%

5 Year Breakeven Inflation rate as of 10/3/25: 2.38%

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Economy

ADP reported that private payrolls declined by 32,000 in September. The August number was revised from +54,000 to -3,000. Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

The ISM September Manufacturing Index was reported at 49.1%, up slightly from 48.7% in August. Any number below 50% indicates an ongoing contraction. The new orders component declined to 48.9 from 51.4. Export orders declined to 43 from 47.6. The price component remained elevated but declined to 61.9 from 63.7.  

The ISM September Service Index was reported at 50%, down from 52% in August. September was the 4th consecutive decline in this index. The price component was reported at 69.4, up from 69.2. The new orders component declined to 50.4 from 56. The employment component remained in contraction territory at 47.02, up from 46.5.  

There was an incident at the second largest copper mine in the world on 9/8/25, located at Indonesia's Grasberg. Goldman Sachs estimated on 9/25 that this event will reduce global copper supply by 250,000 to 270,000 this year and by 160,000 tons next. Goldman now forecast a deficit in supply this year of about 55,000 tons. Copper prices spike after lethal mine landslide in Indonesia - YouTubeCopper - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

On 9/19/25 and with a straight face, Trump falsely represented to the American people that there was no inflation in the U.S. President Donald Trump says the US has ‘no inflation.’ By 2 measures, he’s wrong. By every measure, his claim was false. He has to know when making that claim that it is false but that will not stop Trump from making it over and over again.  

Trump pharmaceutical tariff threat lessens after Pfizer deal Pfizer was given a 3 year exemption from Trump's new 100% tariff based on its commitment to invest $70B in U.S. manufacturing and research and to lower existing drug prices to Medicaid patients to the lowest price offered in developed nations. New drugs will be offered on a most favored nation basis to Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payers. Pfizer also agreed to invest $70B in U.S. manufacturing and research which is probably close to what it would have done without Trump's tariff threasts. 

Are we in a recession? Yes — if you live in one of these 22 states. - MarketWatch ("The overall picture is one of a weak U.S. economy that is vulnerable to being pushed into a ditch by a strong wind.") This result was from a study by Moody Analytics. Only 12 states remained in an economic expansion with the remainder "treading water". 

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Government Shutdown

The government shutdown is just another example of extreme dysfunction in Washington. Stock investors have so far taken the news in stride. 

Gold and bitcoin responded positively to the news. 

On 1/21/25, gold closed at $2,754 per ounce and at $3,887 yesterday 10/4/25, up 41.1% so far during Trump's second term.  Gold Spot Price Chart | BullionVault Do gold and bitcoin investors see the same economy as stock investors? Stock investors are totally out-of-sync with bond, precious metal and bitcoin investors IMO. 

The government will not be releasing any economic data during the shutdown. Labor Dept. to delay economic data if government shuts down, putting Friday's jobs report in doubt - CBS News

Trump Touts Shutdown as an Opportunity to Slash Governmental Agencies Trump on Truth Social"I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity." Sounds like he wants the government to shut down. 

Trump will use the shutdown to fire thousands of government workers, thereby contributing to the growing labor market problems. Trump budget chief says firings are coming in 'one to two' days due to shutdownFiring federal workers during a government shutdown is illegal

The dispute about ACA subsidized premium is not defined properly by either side. The main sticking point is the extension of enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies that were originally passed in 2021 during the pandemic. Those subsidies will expire on 12/31/25 and have not yet been extended. 

Most of the people impacted are U.S. citizens  whose premiums would more than double according to the Kaiser Foundation. ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire | KFF Republicans do not want to talk about those subsidized enrollees or why they did not include an extension of the subsidized premiums for them in their Big Beautiful Bill. The reason is that far too many GOP representatives are opposed to any extension. 

Instead of hammering the Democrats for extending subsidies for U.S. citizens which would lose them votes in the upcoming midterms, the republicans are instead making the false statement that the Democrats have shut down the government since they want to provide premium subsidies to illegal immigrants, a knowingly false claim. 

The law provides that immigrants who are illegally present in the U.S. are ineligible for ACA premium subsidies. The dispute on that issue  has nothing to do with illegal immigrants as the republicans falsely claim, but whether lawfully present, non-citizen immigrants will have access. 

The republicans did eliminate the ACA premium subsidies for several categories of lawfully present immigrants in their BBB legislation. Impact of the “Big Bill” on MedicareObamaCare premiums may spike for 22 million Americans if GOP gets its way and shutdown drags on 

When the Democrats describe the issue, they do not break down the categories of legally present non-citizens who they want to include in the premium support but simply refer to the group as lawfully present immigrants. So even a citizen trying in good faith to make sense of this dispute is not given enough details by the Democrats to develop an informed opinion. 

The Democrats are referring to the following categories of people excluded in the BBB bill: (1) Refugees and people granted asylum; (2) People with Temporary Protected Status; (3) Survivors of Human Trafficking; (4) Survivors of domestic violence, and (5) Individuals granted humanitarian parole. Previously persons in those categories would have been entitled to receive ACA premium support provided they met the work history requirements, or length of residency requirements. 

I would add that the republicans have a majority in the House and Senate and are unable to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Trump views the shutdown as an opportunity to fire more federal employees and to eliminate programs by Executive Orders. I view both as illegal which is irrelevant in Trump's America where the President now has powers that King George would have envied in 1776 which will soon be expanded even further by 6 Republican Justices. 

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The Authoritarian U.S. Government

Trump says US cities should be military training groundsTrump defends use of U.S. military against 'enemy within' Trump: "We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military—National Guard, but military—because we’re going into Chicago very soon. That’s a big city with an incompetent governor. Stupid governor." (emphasis added) Really scary comments, a normal occurrence for our Dear Leader. I never expected to read anything resembling that comment directed at the nation's military leaders by any U.S. President. Even ruthless dictators like Putin would be more circumspect in making this kind of public threat. Tom Nichols summarizes some of Trump's deranged comments at this event here: The Commander in Chief Is Not Okay - The Atlantic (subscription publication)

'Answer the question!' Mike Johnson denies Trump quote in nasty spat with ABC host - Raw Story Johnson was referring to Trump's desire to use U.S. cities as a training grounds for the military. The level of dishonesty is just staggering IMO. It is interesting that the republican politicians claim to be good Christians but are unable to tell the truth or answer a question honestly. Maybe they need to go back to Sunday School and start over on what it actually means to be a Christian. PolitiFact | Mike Johnson 

Trump: "I have a meeting today with Russ Vought, he of PROJECT 2025 Fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent", cited in A Government Shutdown, Weaponized - The Atlantic

Trump admin freezes Chicago infrastructure projects funds: Vought Trump admin cancels climate change funding to blue states: VoughtTrump administration freezes New York City infrastructure fundsShutdown fallout: Energy Dept. cancels climate projects Russell Vought played a significant role in developing the Project 2025 plan. GOP Senator: Project 2025 Creator Has Dreamt About This Since Puberty 

Pete Hegseth required all U.S. generals and admirals to travel to Virginia at taxpayers expense to listen to his sermon.  He criticized "fat generals" and told the assembly that he would no longer tolerate shaving waivers for "beardos". And this was his main message: "No more identity months, DEI offices, dudes in dresses. No more climate-change worship. No more division, distraction, or gender delusions. No more debris. As I’ve said before and will say again, we are done with that shit." Why not send them an email with his rantings? Hegseth rails against 'woke,' lays out standards in speech to top generals, admirals - ABC News  

Pete Hegseth Is Living the Dream - The Atlantic (subscription publication) 

Trump fires US attorney who told border agents to follow law on immigration raids - The Guardian

Donald Trump Attacks Former FBI Chief Christopher Wray with debunked conspiracy theory 

Tricia McLaughlin, Department of Homeland Security, Threatens 'Funding' Behind ICE Protests

Trump Authorizes Troops To Use 'Full Force' against citizens in Portland

Trump targets states that voted for Harris in shutdown fight - POLITICO So far, Trump has only rescinded funding for projects located in states that voted for Harris. Trump has turned the power of the Presidency to exact vengeance and retribution against anyone who is not totally servile to him and to coerce people, law firms  and companies to do his bidding. There is no republican opposition to those measures. The GOP is the antithesis of a conservative party.  

Justice Department fires career prosecutor Michael Ben'Ary falsely tied to Comey case in social media post | CNN Politics The person who falsely tied was Julie Kelley, a right wing commentator, who along with Laura Loomer make decisions on which national security people can remain in the Trump Administration. DOJ fires top national security prosecutor after he's questionably linked to Comey pushback 

The prosecutor, Michael Ben'Ary, had nothing to do with the Comey case but was the chief prosecutor on national security issues. Who is Michael Ben'Ary? Trump's DOJ fires another top prosecutor - Newsweek; Top prosecutor fired from embattled US attorney's office slams DOJ leadership - ABC News Ben'Ary had this to say about Pam Bondi's DOJ after being fired:  "I am disappointed to leave behind a national security and public safety mission that I truly believed in. I am even more disappointed to see what has happened to this office and the Department of Justice in just a few short months. The decisions to remove experienced career officials from US Attorneys Offices, the FBI, and other critical parts of DOJ undermines our country's ability to counter terrorist organizations, malign nation-state actors, and countless others that seek to harm our nation and its citizens . . This example highlights the most troubling aspect of the current operations of the Department of Justice: the leadership is more concerned with punishing the President's perceived enemies than they are with protecting our national security".   Fired prosecutor warns colleagues to resist giving in to Trump era ‘political interference’ - POLITICO  He correctly notes that the DOJ under Pam Bondi no longer follows the facts and law wherever they lead free from "fear or favor, and unhindered by political interference"  The "political leadership have violated these principles, jeopardizing our national security". He is referring to the mass purge of experienced DOJ and FBI employees in the national security field. 

Trump’s Purge of Terrorism Prosecutors - The Atlantic

The 6 Monarchists on the Supreme Court have allowed Trump to impound spending funds authorized by Congress for international aid programs including HIV prevention. The BONKERS Supreme Court Argument That Let Trump Block Billions in Foreign Aid - YouTube In effect, the Republican Justices are allowing the President to take away the power of the purse from Congress.  The Monarchists are undermining the very reason why there was a War of Independence and a Constitution with separation of powers. And they are doing so knowing, without any reasonable doubt, that Trump will abuse the power that they are giving him after removing the possibility of criminal prosecution. 

The Republican Justices claim that a law, The Impoundment Control Act of 1974, designed to stop Presidents from impounding funds without explicit approval from Congress, prevents anyone from challenging the impoundment. This is just another ruling that allows the President to take over a constitutional power delegated to Congress in Article 1.   

The Republican Justices refused to explain their Orwellian logic and reasoning, as they do frequently now, and simply provided a conclusion that "the asserted harms to the Executive's conduct of foreign affairs outweighs the potential harm to the respondents" and the "Impoundment Control Act precludes" the lawsuit. Order and dissent in foreign aid case The result is that the 6 Monarchists have in effect given the President absolute control over spending whose constitutional power is vested in Congress, not the President, by the Constitution. Supreme Court allows Trump administration to withhold billions in foreign-aid funding - SCOTUSblog Congress can appropriate the money but the President can refuse to spend what has been authorized. The dissenting opinion of Justice Kagan explains more fully how the Monarchists have gone rogue.  

SCOTUS Is About to Destroy 100-Year-Old Law Protecting Government Agencies - YouTube The discussion relates to the 6 Republican Justices overruling Humphrey's Executor v. United States 295 U.S. 602 (1935) which will soon occur. The Monarchists will allow a President to fire without cause commissioners of independent agencies, even though the statute creating the agency, passed by Congress and signed into law by a prior President, requires a cause showing. The 6 Republican Justices are not conservatives in the American legal tradition, but they do reflect current day republican ideology and acceptance of an Imperial President with Kingly powers provided the King is Trump and not a Democrat. 

ICE Zip-Ties Children in Horrific Raid on Chicago Apartment Building 

Video shows ICE officers shove journalists to the floor at 26 Federal Plaza in NYC, 1 hospitalized - CBS New York

Ask yourself. Where is the republican opposition to these and countless other authoritarian actions? It does not exist, nowhere to be found, but would exist provided republicans were actually conservatives in the American tradition. 

Cruelty, vengeance and lying are not conservative values and certainly not Christian ones.  

The Orwellian World Created by Donald Trump:

PolitiFact | Donald Trump says Joe Biden never called the U.S. military the world’s strongest. Pants on Fire

PolitiFact | Trump says FBI agents may have been Jan. 6 agitators. Investigations don’t support that. Rated Pants on Fire

President Donald Trump says the US has ‘no inflation.’ By 2 measures, he’s wrong. Rated as False 

PolitiFact | No, small children don’t receive ‘80 different vaccines,’ despite President Donald Trump’s statement Rated False

PolitiFact | Trump is wrong: There are downsides to avoiding Tylenol, not treating fever while pregnant Rated as Pants on Fire  

PolitiFact | We went to the Smithsonian museums. They are filled with ’brightness’ and ‘success’ Rated as Pants on Fire

PolitiFact | Do voting machines delay election results? No, Trump's wrong about paper ballot counting Rated as False. 

71% of Republicans view Trump as honest in a recent poll, down from 77% in January 2025. Donald Trump’s Honesty Rating Hits New Low - NewsweekPoll - Question 19 at page 29.pdf Prior to his second term, 80-82% of republicans believed Trump was honest and almost as many viewed him as a role model for their children. 

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1. Small Ball Common Stock/Stock Fund Purchases

I am slightly increasing my exposure to beaten up dividend common stocks. Most of those purchases are in the equity REIT sector. 

A. Added to PEO - Bought 5 at $21.95

Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF

Cost: $109.75

This CEF was formed in 1929 just prior to the stock market crash. The fund shares office space and personnel with the Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX) that was founded at about the same time. 

I am willing to add to this CEF since my exposure to natural resource stocks is close to nil and the fund pays a good dividend.  

SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report

Sponsor's website: Adams Funds

Last DiscussedItem # 3.C. Added to PEO - Bought 5 at $21.65; 5 at $21.35 (6/26/25 Post) 

SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the Q/E 6/30/25 

Top 10 Holdings as of 6/30/25

Of the stocks listed in the previous snapshot, I have individual positions in Williams Companies (WMB) and Kinder Morgan (KMI). 

Of the top 10, Hess was recently acquired by Chevron. Chevron Completes Acquisition of Hess Corporation (7/18/25)("Under the terms of the merger agreement, Hess shareholders will receive 1.0250 shares of Chevron for each Hess share.")

Principal Portfolio Changes 2025 1st Half: 

New Average cost per share: $21.83

Dividends: Variable 

"The Board . . . adopted a Managed Distribution Policy (“MDP”) to enhance long-term shareholder value by paying level quarterly distributions at a committed rate of 8% of average net asset value (“NAV”) per year. Distributions in accordance with the MDP began in the third quarter of 2024."

PEO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

For 2025, PEO paid quarterly dividends so far of $.53; $.52 and $.51 per share

Last Ex Dividend: 7/28/25

The 4th quarter dividend will usually be paid in November. 

Data Date of 9/25/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset value per share: $24.66

Closing Market Price: $21.96

Discount: -10.95%

Average 3 year discount: -13.86%

Sourced:  PEO-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab) 

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.B. Eliminated PEO-Sold 15 at $23.94 (4/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.72); Item # 1. Eliminated PEO - Sold 182+ at $22 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $853.25); Stocks,Item # 1. Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/2013 Post)(profit snapshot = $205.95); Item # 3. Sold 100 PEO at $26.19 (11/15/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $144.29) 

PEO Realized Gains to Date: $1,278.98 Some minor sales were not discussed.  

It has been my experience that energy stocks need to be traded in order to realize acceptable total returns. PEO is competently managed IMO but I was selling shares in 2010 and 2013 at prices higher than my most recent purchases.  

WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends

The fund does own some chemical stocks. That sector has been in a major bear market trend, primarily caused by lower demand and input cost inflation. 

B. Added to Duplicate Position in KRG - Bought 5 at $21.98 - Fidelity Account



Cost: $109.9

New Average Cost per share this account: $22.33

Snapshot Intraday on 9/26/25 after add

Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)

KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC: 4.8365

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 1.L. Added to KRG in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.95 (8/5/25 Post)SEC Filed Press Release andSEC Filed Supplemental

Last DiscussedItem # 3.F. Started Duplicate Position in KRG - Bought 10 at $22.6 (9/13/25 Post)

Recent results have been negatively impacted by tenant bankruptcies as discussed in this Fitch report. Fitch Rates Kite Realty's Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB'

Owned Kite Realty LP SU Bonds

Stacked

4  Kite Realty LP 4% Coupon Maturing on 10/1/26

2  Kite Realty LP 4.95% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/31, recently purchased and discussed at Item # 5.E. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/31 at a Total Cost of 98.6 (6/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.205%); Bond Prospectus

C. Added to KBWY - Bought 4 at $15.88

Quote: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF Overview 

Cost: $63.53 

This ETF owns the highest yielding equity REITs which amounts to a collection of the riskiest ones IMO. 

Sponsor's website: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF

Expense Ratio: .35% 

Stock Holdings as of 9/26/25: 

Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Added to KBWY-Bought 5 at $15.9 (7/9/25 Post)  

New average cost per share: $16.37

Dividend: Monthly at a slightly variable rate.  

KBWY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

The penny rate has trended down some over the past 18 months. I am aware that 4 holdings, BDN, DEA, GMRE, and GNL, slashed their dividends during this period. 

Last 12 Dividends: $1.51 per share 

Yield at New AC per share: 9.22%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/25

KBWY Morningstar Page Currently rated 1 star

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.  

Risk Evaluation: High IMO. I currently own 17 of the stocks owned by this fund. They are not what I would call blue chip REITs. I would describe them generally as the riskier equity REITs with higher dividend yields than the higher quality ones.  

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 3.E. Pared KBWY - Sold 10 at $20.54; 17+ at $20.63  (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.39). I sold my highest cost lots.  

D. Started Duplicate Position in OLB (Vanguard Account) - Bought 10 at $22.8; 5 at $22.1; 5 at $21.65

Quote: One Liberty Properties Inc. (OLP)

Cost: $447.25

"The Company acquires, owns and manages a geographically diversified portfolio consisting primarily of industrial properties. Many of these properties are subject to long-term net leases under which the tenant is typically responsible for the property’s real estate taxes, insurance and ordinary maintenance and repairs."

As of 6/30/25, OLP owned "103 properties (including two properties owned by consolidated joint ventures and two properties owned by unconsolidated joint ventures) located in 32 states. Based on square footage, our occupancy rate at June 30, 2025 is approximately 98.8%." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 25 

As disclosed in a 9/11/25 SEC Filing, OLP and its ground lease tenant entered into an agreement to sell this property. OLP has not received any rental income from this property for several years. It is my understanding that OLP owns the ground leases.  The property has not generated sufficient operating cash flow that would trigger the tenant to pay rent for the ground leases, see pages 32-33 of the Annual Report. Receiving $18.5M-$19M in cash that can be used to purchase income generating properties will be a positive assuming the deal closes in the 4th quarter. 

Last DiscussedItem # 1.D. Added to Duplicate Position in OLP  (Fidelity Account) - Bought 5 at $22.7; 5 at $22.25; 5 at $22.17  (9/27/25 Post) 

OLP SEC Filings

OLP 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report

Website: One Liberty Properties, Inc. 

Properties

Average cost per share this account$22.36 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)

OLP Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $22.36: 8.05% 

Last Ex Dividend: 9/24/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 3.D. Started Duplicate Position in OLP-Bought 10 at $23.21; 5 at $22.9 (9/13/25 Post)SEC Filed Press Release 

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.B. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $26.84 (9/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.93); Item # 2.A. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $25.12+ (8/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.38)  

Lowest Prices PaidItem # 1.A. Added to OLP - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $17.6 - Schwab Account (10/7/23 Post)

E. Restarted MAA - Bought 1 at $139; 1 at $137:

The snapshot includes my last elimination, selling 5 at $169.875. I will buy back the 5 shares sold in 1 share lots, with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. I have become slightly more interested in this stock due to the decline in interest rates and the stock price decline. 

Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Apartment REIT 

Cost: $276

"MAA, an S&P 500 company, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on delivering full-cycle and superior investment performance for shareholders through the ownership, management, acquisition, development and redevelopment of quality apartment communities primarily in the Southeast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. As of June 30, 2025, MAA had ownership interest in 104,347 apartment units, including communities currently in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia."

Portfolio:

Last DiscussedItem # 1.E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.26) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.E. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $123.4; 1 at $122.25 (2/15/24 Post)Item # 1.A. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $129.7; 1 at $128.55; 1 at $125.2 (2/9/24 Post) 

Average cost per share: $138 (2 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.515 per share ($6.06 annually), last raised from $1.47 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. 

MAA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at AC = 4.39%

Next Ex Dividend: 10/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filing

Revenues: $549.902M, up $546.435

E.P.S. $.92, up from $.86  

FFO per share: $2.19. up from $2.06

Core FFO per share: $2.15, down from $2.22

Core AFFO per share: $1.85, down from $1.92   

Reconciliation: GAAP E.P.S. to Core AFFO


2025 Guidance: 


"During the second quarter of 2025, MAA began construction on a 336-unit multifamily apartment community located in Charleston, South Carolina. As of June 30, 2025, MAA had eight communities under development with total expected costs of $942.5 million. MAA also had four recently completed development communities and two recently acquired communities in lease-up with a total cost to date of $573.9 million."

Same Store average physical occupancy: 95.4% Supplemental Data at page S-4 

Owned SU Bonds

Stacked

4 of the 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25

2 of the 3.6% SU Maturing on 6/1/27; Bond Page | FINRA.org

2 of 3.95% SU Maturing on 3/15/29, Bond Page | FINRA.org

I recently sold 2 of the 5% SU maturing on 3/15/34, Item # 2.F. (9/2/25 Post)  

F. Added to GOOD - Bought 10 at $12.2 - Schwab Account

Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)

Cost: $122

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)

Properties- Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)

GOOD SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 Owned as of 143 properties with 17M square feet that was 98.7% occupied with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7 years. GOOD is classified as a net lease REIT, see page 26.   

Last DiscussedItem # 1.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at$12.7; 10 at $12.5; 10 at $12.4 (9/27/25 Post) 

New Average cost per share this account: $13.41 (150 shares)

Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share

GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha 

I am currently reinvesting the dividend in this account only, effective with the next payment. 

Yield at $13.41 = 8.95%

Last Ex Dividend9/22/25 (owned 110 as of this account)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 20 at $13.1 (8/26/25 Post);  SEC Filed Press Release 

GOOD Realized Gains to Date$442.99

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. 

Owned Equity Preferred Stock: 85 shares. Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Pfd. Series E Stock  (GOODN)Prospectus {dividends paid monthly) 

G. Restarted UNB - Bought 5 at $24.7

Quote: Union Bankshares Inc.  (UNB)

Cost: $123.5 

UNB is a mini cap bank holding company that owns Union Bank. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last DiscussedItem # 2.L. Eliminated UNB - Sold 10 at $29.31 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot $76.2). I mentioned that I was not impressed by the 2024 third quarter earnings report, SEC Filed Press Release.

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.J. Restarted UNB - Bought 5 at $22; 5 at $$21.38 (6/20/24 Post)

UNB SEC Filings

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2023 1st quarter. The dividend was at $.26 per share in 2014. 

UNB Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $24.75.83%

Last Ex Dividend: 7/25/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):  

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

This press release provides a limited amount of financial information. I am sourcing most of my discussion from the 10-Q. 

Vermont's tourism industry is suffering from boycotts by Canadian citizens as noted by the CEO in his comments.  

E.P.S. $.53 up from $.45

NIM: 2.89%, up from 2.81%

Efficiency Ratio: 77.85%, down from 78.55% (both too high IMO) 

NPL Ratio: 1.37%, up from .19%

NPA Ratio: 1.03%, up from .14%

The NPL and NPA increases are concerning and are consistent with some borrowers being stressed by a decrease in Canadian customers. I would attribute the recent stock decline to the increases in nonperforming loans to total loans and nonperforming assets to total assets. It is not helpful that NIM is basically stagnant. The coverage ratio (ACL on loans to nonperforming loans) declined to 54.43% from 357.52%.  

Charge off Ratio: Zero

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 5.B. Eliminated UNB - Sold 20+ at $25 (10/28/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.66); Item # 3.G. Eliminated UNB in Schwab and Vanguard Accounts - Sold 5 at $22 and 5 at $22 (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $35.1); Item #2 C. Sold 50 UNB at $24.56 (1/25/14 Post)(profit snapshot =$238.61); Item # 1 Sold 50 UNB at $19.5 (7/26/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.08)

UNB Realized Gains to Date$429.92

H. Added 5 SBSI at $27.8


Cost: $139

"Southside Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company with approximately $8.34 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025, that owns 100% of Southside Bank. Southside Bank currently has 53 branches in Texas and operates a network of 71 ATMs/ITMs."

SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

SBSI SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 

Last DiscussedItem # 1.G. Pared SBSI - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $31.75 (9/8/25 Post)(profit snapshot =  $5.35)

New average cost per share: $27.95 (25 shares)

Snapshot Intraday 10/1/25 after add

DividendQuarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)

SBSI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

I am not reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at $27.95: 5.15

Last Ex Dividend: 8/21/25 (owned all as of)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed that report here: Item # 1.C. Added to SBSI - Bought 5 at $28.65; 5 at $28.2 - Schwab Acount (8/12/25 Post);  SEC Filed Press Release

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.21); Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.13); Item # 1.D. Sold 1 SBSI at $39.8 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.82); Item # 2.B. Sold 50 SBSI at  $21.27 (4/29/13 Post)(profit snapshot +$39.37); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $208.69) Realized gains in Roth IRA accounts were not discussed but are included in the total below. 

SBSI Realized Gains to Date$661.48 

Recent Bond Offering (8/25): Prospectus 7% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes maturing in 2035. Subordinated in this context means junior to senior unsecured debt and senior only to equity capital. 

I would anticipate that almost all junior bonds issued by bank holding companies would become worthless in the event the FDIC seized the operating bank, as would the common and equity preferred stocks. In that eventuality, the bank holding company would be filing for bankruptcy since the debt at the holding company level would generally far exceed the value of any remaining assets. 

2. Small Ball Sells

A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in APA - Sold 22+ at $25.35 - Schwab Account

Quote: APA Corp. (APA) - E&P company, formerly known as Apache.  

Proceeds: $573.33

I still own shares in my Fidelity account (52+ shares) where I am reinvesting the dividend. Most of purchases have not been discussed here. The dividend yield at my AC per share in that account is 3.74%. I am in a hole with a $26.76 AC per share. The lowest price paid was for a 2 share lot bought at $18.66 on 6/23/25. Purchases are restricted to the lowest price in the chain. 

APA "owns consolidated subsidiaries that explore for and produce oil and natural gas in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom and that explore for oil and natural gas offshore Suriname and elsewhere".  

Rationale: It looks like energy prices are going to remain low for longer than I previously expected. 

Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Suriname - APA Corporation

APA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Portfolio - APA Corporation

APA SEC Filings

5 year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend starting in 2022


Double Top near $51 in 2022
Failed Rally in 2023 moving from $24 to $49
Followed by series of lower highs and lower lows 
A recent rally did take out the previous lower high in 3/25, but just barely. 

I am not a technical analyst. My chart interpretations are not based on any book learning, since I have none, but on simply looking at stock charts for decades and what the chart says to me based on that experience. 

Profit Snapshot: $114.89 (small ball purchases)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

APA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 7/22/25

Next Ex Dividend: 10/22/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): 

Revenues: $1.718B, down from $2.201B

E.P.S. $1.67, up from $1.46

Adjusted E.P.S. = $.87, down from $1.17

Reconciliation: 

"Second-quarter reported production was 465,000 BOE per day and adjusted production, which excludes Egypt noncontrolling interest and tax barrels, was 394,000 BOE per day. U.S. oil production was 124,000 barrels per day; exceeding guidance set in May despite a slight impact from the New Mexico asset sale that closed in mid-June. Egypt reported production was also ahead of guidance at 144,000 BOE per day, driven by the strong performance of recent gas discoveries and the company’s ability to continue increasing utilization of existing infrastructure." 

Average prices per barrel: 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

S&P (9/25): 3 stars with a $22 PT, raised $3 in response to the last earnings report. 

Argus (8/25/25): Hold, waiting for a better entry point.  

B. Eliminated GMAB - Sold 23 at $30.37 - Two Accounts:


Quotes: 

In USDs: Genmab A/S ADR  (GMAB)

In DKKs: Genmab A/S (Denmark: OMX)

Danish Krone to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

ADR Ratio: 10 ADRs = 1 Ordinary Share

Proceeds: $698.48

Pipeline | Genmab

Our medicines | Genmab

Genmab A/S_SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report

Profit Snapshots: $212.54



Dividends: None

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): Item # 3.J. Added to GMAB - Bought 2 at $21.56 (8/19/25 Post)SEC Filing This post was  my last substantive discussion.  

Other Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.G. Bought 10 GMAB at $21.74 (12/12/24 Post)Item # 1.H. Added to GMAB - Bought 5 at $20.84 (12/19/24 Post)

Other Sell DiscussionItem # 7.A. Sold 2 GMAB at $23.61 (7/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $3.77)

News Since Last Discussions


The initial reaction to this 9/29/25 acquisition announcement was positive and I elected to harvest my profit in response: Genmab to Acquire Merus, Expanding Late-Stage Pipeline and Accelerating into a Wholly Owned Model The acquisition price is US$97 per share or about US$8B. Over the decades, I have developed an opinion about growth by acquisition of pipeline stage companies and companies with one or more approved drugs. Merus is a clinical stage company with a cancer drug in late stage trials. 
Most of the growth by acquisitions in the pharmaceutical industry have been at what proved to be excessive prices. 

One of the main culprits is Pfizer whose acquisitions, starting in 1999 through the  Seagen acquisition, were valued at $338.66B, more than twice the current market capitalization. 

Pfizer Acquisitions Starting in 1999: 

Warner Lambert: $90.2B

Wyeth: $68B

Pharmacia: $60B

Hospira: $17B

Medivation: $14.3B

Biohaven: 11.6B

Array: $11.4B

Arena: $6.7B

Global Blood Therapeutics: $5.4B

Anacor: $5.2B 

King Pharmaceuticals: $3.6B

Trillium: $2.26B

Seagen: $43B 

I have no idea whether the Merus cancer drug will be approved by regulatory agencies or the long term revenue potential. I do know that the upfront cost is $8B. 

GMAB Realized Gains to Date: $216.31 (25 shares) 

B.Pared JRI Again - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $14.08; 10 at $14.32:

Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview - A Leveraged Balanced CEF

Proceeds: $284

JRI SEC Filings

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth (JRI) Portfolio | Morningstar Lists top 23 holdings, accessible to non-subscribers. 

Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund - SEC filed shareholder report for the period ending 6/30/25. The JRI holdings list starts at page 52. Leverage is described at pages 87-89. 

Leveraged: Yes, at 31.49% as of 6/30/25

Fund Allocation as of 6/30/25: 

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.F. Pared JRI - Sold 10 at $13.75; 10 at $13.98 - Vanguard Account (9/13/25 Post)(profit snapshots = $59.62); Item # 1.C. Pared JRI Again - Sold 10 at $13.48 (9/8/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.04, contains snapshots of prior roundtrips)

Profit Snapshot: $66.51  (9/29/25  and 10/1 sales only)

New Average cost per share: $9.54 (120+ shares)

Snapshot after last pare/Closing Price as of 10/1/25 

Reduced from $9.81

Dividend: Monthly at $.1335 per share ($1.602 annually)

JRI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

ROC supported. 

Yield at $9.54: 16.79%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/15/25

Data Date of 9/29/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset value per share: $13.66

Closing market price: $14.05

Premium: +2.86%

Average 3 year discount: -9.89%

Sourced: JRI  - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab) 

Data Date of 10/1/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.76

Closing Market Price: $14.39

Premium: +4.14% 

JRI Realized Gains to Date: $975.83

C. Pared Duplicate Position in ETW in Schwab Account - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $8.98

Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Overview - A Buy/Write CEF 

Proceeds:  $89.91

This fund "invests in a diversified portfolio of common stocks and writes call options on one or more U.S. and foreign indices on a substantial portion of the value of its common stock portfolio to seek to generate current earnings from the option premium."

Last Buy DiscussionaItem # 1.C. Added to ETW in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $7.57 (4/25/25 Post)Item # 1.F. Added to ETW in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $7.77 (4/13/25 Post) 

Sponsor's website: Eaton Vance 

ETW SEC Filings 

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/25

Profit Snapshot: $3.55

New Average cost per share this account: $8.08 (70 shares)

Snapshot after pare/closing price as of 9/29/25

Dividend: Monthly at $.0664 per share ($.7968 annually)

ETW Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Some ROC support. 

Yield at New AC per share this account: 9.86% 

Last Ex Dividend: 9/15/25

Data Date of 9/29/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $9.91

Closing Market Price: $9

Discount: -9.18%

Average 3 Year Discount: -9.53%

Sourced: ETW-CEF Connect 

EV Tax-Managed Glb B-W Opps (ETW)-Morningstar ETW currently has a 3 star rating. 

D. Pared ETW in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $9.09

See Item # 2.C. above. 

Proceeds: $90.95

Profit Snapshot: $8.1 (10/2/25 Sale Only)

New average cost per share this account: $8.21 (90 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/2/25 after pare

Yield at $8.21: 9.7

Goal: With all Buy/Write CEFs, the goal is simply to harvest the dividends and to sell the shares at any profit using the original cost basis for that calculation rather than the ROC adjusted tax cost basis. I am accomplishing that objective with ETW.  

3. Corporate Bonds

A. Bought 2 Highwoods Realty Partnership 4.2% SU Maturing on 4/15/29 at a Total Cost of 98.35

Issuer: Operating entity of Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW)

I have a small ball position in the common stock. 

Last HIW DiscussionItem # 1.G. Pared HIW Again - Sold Highest Cost 3 Shares at $32.84  (9/13/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.52). I currently own 25+ shares with an average cost per share of $19.74. The quarterly dividend is $.50 per share. HIW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

HIW SEC Filings 

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 

HIW Announces Second Quarter 2025 Results.pdf

As of 6/30/25, Highwoods through its operating partnership "owned or had an interest in 27.3 million rentable square feet of in-service properties, 1.4 million rentable square feet of office properties under development and development land with approximately 4.5 million rentable square feet of potential office build out."  

Website: Highwoods

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Prospectus 

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB- 

YTM at Total Cost: 4.71%

Current Yield at TC: 4.27%

Other Owned SU Bond: 

2 Highwoods LP 3.875% SU Maturing on 3/1/27, rated at Baa2/BBB-: Bond Page | FINRA.org, discussed at Item # 2.C. Bought 2 Highwoods LP 3.875% SU Maturing on 3/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.334 (4/4/25 Post)(YTM then at 4.795%) 

Rationale: Having sold 118 corporate bonds maturing in 2032 or later since mid-July, I will use some of the proceeds to buy bonds maturing in 2030 or earlier. I do not yet find the yields of those shorter term bonds attractive. 

4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

A. Bought 5 T Bills at the 9/29/25 Auction

182 Day Bill

Matures on 4/2/26

Interest: $93.91

The interest will be taxable in 2026 when held to maturity. 

Investment Rate: 3.839

I am no longer buying T Bills that mature in 2025, having surpassed already my goal for this year. 

B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/1/25 Auction

119 Day Bill

Matures on 2/3/26

Interest: $62.56

Investment Rate: 3.886%

5. Tennessee Municipal Bonds

A. Bought 5 Sullivan County, TN. 3.625% GO Maturing on 5/1/46 at a Total Cost of 86.05

Emma Page

Sullivan County - Google Maps

Credit Rating: Aa2

Current Federal Tax Free Yield: 4.213%

YTM = 4.689%

The "profit" will be taxed as a realized market discount. 

Optional Redemption: On or after 5/1/26 at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest. 

I use a ladder strategy for Tennessee municipal bonds. 

The objective is to generate at least $8,000 in annual tax free income. 

Since I have had municipal bonds called early so far this year, and will have 10 maturing next year (5 on 4/1/26; 5 on 6/1/26), I need to replace those with this purchase to meet my minimum tax free income objective next year. 

While I am not comfortable with the interest rate risk of this bond, it is also possible that the bond will be called early when and if there is another significant decline in long term rates. That could occur with another massive Q/E program. (e.g. look at 20 year treasury yield in 2021, U.S. Department of the Treasury)

6. U.S. REIT Equity Preferred Stock

Some of the higher yielding U.S. equity preferred stocks are becoming slightly more attractive to me given the decline in interest rates. 

A. Added 10 AHHPRA at $21.65 - Fidelity Account

Quote: AHH-PA

Cost: $216.5

Issuer: Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. (AHH)

Website: Armada Hoffler 

AHH "is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust with over four decades of experience developing, building, acquiring, and managing high-quality retail, office, and multifamily properties located primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. The Company also provides general construction and development services to third-party clients, in addition to developing and building properties to be placed in their stabilized portfolio."

Last DiscussedItem # 7.A. Added to AHHPRA in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.78 (8/19/25 Post)Item # 3.A. Added 5 AHHPRA at $20.75-Fidelity Account (4/13/25 Post) 

AHH SEC Filings

Investment category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stockspart of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy  

Capital Structure Placement: Senior only to common stock and junior to all bonds

Prospectus (public offering price at $25 in June 2019)

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 6.75% 

Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative 

Stopper Clause: Yes, standard (see page S-17 Prospectus) This clause enforces the preferred shareholders preferential claim to cash vs. only the common shareholders. To defer the preferred stock dividend, the company must first eliminate the common cash dividend and avoid using cash to buy back common stock during the deferral period. 

AHH recently cut its quarterly common share dividend from $.205 per share to $.14. AHH Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha 

In my opinion, this slash was not due to financial stress but to fund in part new acquisitions. 

This is the press release announcing the common dividend slash: Armada Hoffler Announces Quarterly Dividend Less cash paid to the common shareholders, with the savings used to fund new acquisitions, is generally a positive for the preferred stock owner. The main issue for a preferred shareholder is to have a cash common share dividend as small as possible which activates the Stopper Clause. 

Maturity Date: None, potentially perpetual 

Issuer Optional Call Date: At par value + accrued and unpaid dividends on or after 6/18/24 

New average cost per share in this account: $21.71 (25 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/3/25 after add

Yield at $21.71: 7.77%

Calculation: .0675% coupon x $25 par value = $1.6875 annual dividend per share ÷ $21.71 average cost per share = 7.7729%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/25 (owned 20 shares in this account as of) 

7. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 10/1/25

Starting in mid-July 2025, I substantially reduced my allocation in this account to corporate bonds maturing in 2032 or later. 

Redeemed Corporate Bonds: $6,000

Municipal Bond Interest: $893.26

Corporate Bond Interest: $699.05

CD Interest (monthly payments): $16.35 (all CDs are in a run-off) 

Dividends:  $19.9

Total Interest + Dividends =  $1,628.56

I live in Williamson County, TN that has a Aaa rating on its GO bonds. This county is one of the richest in the U.S. Is Williamson County TN the Richest County in the US? I currently own 35 Williamson County GOs in my Fidelity and Vanguard accounts. For municipal bonds, that is my highest number of bonds from a single issuer.   

Tennessee does not have a state income tax and no estate or gift tax. The property tax on my home, valued at over $900K by Zillow, is about $2,300 annually, which includes the property taxes owed to both the AAA credit rated City of Brentwood and Aaa rated Williamson County.  

All of the municipal bonds that I own were issued by Tennessee governmental entities since I am familiar with the territory and consequently have a comfort level that I would not have for bonds issued by governmental entities in other states. I also view it as important that there is no state income tax and property taxes are relatively low compared to other states, since both create more household disposable income after taxes and less strain on paying property taxes.  

Maury County GO rated at Aa2

Rutherford County GO rated at Aaa

Montgomery County GO rated at AA

Wilson County GO rated at AA+

All of the foregoing counties are in middle Tennessee. 

There are several reasons for owning these municipal bonds: (1) diversification in my bond portfolio; (2) tax free interest income restrains my movement into  ahigher marginal tax bracket; and (3) credit quality. 

I also own municipal bonds in my Schwab and Vanguard taxable accounts. 

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.   

7 comments:

  1. I published a YouTube video earlier today:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbu2DhnkH7c

    The main topic is a discussion of what I view as the different messages about the U.S. economy sent by movements in stock prices vs. gold, bitcoin, intermediate and long term treasury yields, and the decline in the U.S. Dollars value against foreign currencies. Something is going to break.

    ReplyDelete
  2. In several recent posts, I discussed eliminating and paring positions in BDC stocks. The primary reason for those sales was the anticipated decline in net investment income resulting from Fed rate cuts. The problem is that BDCs are weighted in variable rate loans whose coupons reset at spreads to short term rates, usually the 1 or 3 Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) which will decline in tandem with each FED cut in the federal funds rate.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR

    In addition, the BDCs were able to sell senior unsecured debt prior to 2022 at low coupons but are having to refinance that debt at much higher coupons.

    An example is FSK selling last month $300M of a 6.125% SU note maturing in 2031.

    Prospectus
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1422183/000110465925092179/tmb-20250918x424b2.htm

    The next FSK note to mature (1/2026) is in the principal amount of $1B that has a 3.4% coupon, see page S-11 of the previously linked prospectus. Subsequent to that maturity, FSK has to refinance
    the following SU notes:

    2.625% SU due 2027 2.63%

    3.250% Notes due 2027 3.25%

    3.125% Notes due 2028 3.13%

    So as NII declines due to variable rate loans resetting their coupons lower, the cost of refinancing maturing senior unsecured bonds is going up, probably IMO due to bond investors viewing the credit risks as requiring higher coupons.

    And with FSK as I noted when I eliminated my position, nonperforming loans are rising even before the official onset of a recession and are already at undesirable levels. There is needless to say no interest income paid on nonaccrual loans and that further pressures the net interest margin down.

    I am expecting more dividend cuts in this sector.

    There is an ETF that owns BDC stocks:

    VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD)
    $14.14 -$0.18 -1.29%
    52 Week Range $13.50 - $17.86
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bizd

    The current price of $14.14 is 20.82% below the 52 week high of $17.86 hit last February.

    FSK Last Discussed:

    Item #4.D. Eliminated FSK in Fidelity Account - Sold 21+ at $17.88 and Item #4.E. Eliminated FSK - Sold 20+ in Fidelity Account at $17.83:

    Tuesday, August 19, 2025 Post
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/08/ahhpra-argd-argopra-bmrn-cto-doc-fsk.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. Previously, I have discussed the ongoing major bear market in chemical stocks. Earnings have plummeted into negative territory or barely positive for these companies due primarily to a worldwide decline in demand.

    An example is the stock price of DOW.

    Dow Inc. (DOW)
    $22.31 -$1.11 -4.74%
    52 Week Range
    $20.40 - $54.17
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/dow

    DOW recently slashed its dividend and reported a $801M GAAP second quarter loss or -$1.18 per share. The non-GAAP E.P.S. was reported at ($.42) Revenues declined 7%.

    Other chemical stocks are in major bear markets.

    Other examples include:

    Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN)
    $62.29 -$1.43 -2.24%
    52 Week Range
    $56.78 - $111.79

    LyondellBasell Industries N (LYB)
    $48.68 -$0.01 -0.01%.
    52 Week Range
    47.55 - 95.27
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lyb?mod=search_symbol

    Celanese Corp. (CE)
    $42.64 $ -1.65 -3.74%
    52 Week Range
    $36.29 - $137.36
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ce?mod=search_symbol

    Olin Corp. (OLN)
    $24.81 -$1.12 -4.32%
    52 Week Range
    $17.66 - $48.00
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/oln?mod=search_symbol

    Huntsman Corp. (HUN)
    $9.20 -$0.19 -2.02%
    52 Week Range
    $8.68 - $24.13
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/hun


    The earnings reports of chemical stocks is one of the issues that stock investors have been ignoring so far.

    ReplyDelete
  4. S&P 500 Index
    6,628.64 -106.47 -1.58%
    Last Updated: Oct 10, 2025 at 12:04 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home_markets

    At about 10:56 A.M. EDT, the stock market started a steep decline after rallying in early trading.

    The cause was a Trump "Truth" Social message where he complained about China imposing new restrictions on rare earth exports and called off his meeting with Xi:

    Trump: "I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so."

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-threatens-china-new-tariffs-countermeasures-rcna236890

    China has not yet bought any U.S. soybeans.

    Trump has threatened China again with massive tariff increases that will have the impact, if implemented, of a trade embargo.

    It is possible that China may have changed its negotiating posture with Trump, away from trying to reach what the Chinese government views as an unfavorable trade deal and to just letting Trump significantly harm the U.S economy and then suffer the consequences in the November 2026 midterm elections.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Trump has to know that this would bring the market down..I wonder what strategy he thinks he's doing?

    Be really nice if China let him flap in the wind, and essentially helped the 2026 elections. Could easily be their plan. When I worked on inllinstruction books that were going to be translated into Chinese, There's a different style than US books. In the US everything's direct and succinct. The Chinese books there were flowery polite entries into the topics. There's a ritualness to communicating, particularly on negotiations.

    I would not be surprised if the Chinese negotiators cannot figure out what Trump is doing, and are exceedingly uncomfortable with it.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Trump waited until the market closed before imposing a 100% tariff on China's exports, effective on 11/1/25, over and above the existing ones.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html

    The existing tariff rates vary but the "effective tariff" is about 40%. If implemented, the additional tariff will have the effect of an embargo and would reduce the tariff taxes collected from U.S. importers near zero.

    Trump believes that taking coercive actions as U.S. President will cause countries to give him what he wants in a trade deal. Coercion and extortion have worked many times for Trump already on U.S. companies and law firms and some foreign countries.

    China can tough it out.

    There is a possibility, maybe even probable now, that China has had it with Trump and will allow him to substantially damage the U.S. economy with the U.S. midterm elections coming up in less than 13 months. That will explain why they have tightened export controls on rare earths/minerals and have not yet bought in soybeans.

    Maybe the meeting with Xi will happen but I doubt it.

    If China decides that further negotiations are not likely to lead to any trade agreement acceptable to XI, which conclusion may now exist, then there will no further trade discussions, no purchases of U.S. soybeans, no trade between China and the U.S. other than a trickle, no meaningful U.S. tariffs paid on China exports by U.S. importers, a substantial reduction in Chinese demand for other U.S. farm products, retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. exports, hostile Chinese government actions against U.S. companies operating in China, and a U.S. recession in time for the midterms next year. Our Dear Leader truly believes that he holds all the cards and China will bend a knee and kiss his ring.

    We will find out whether China will buckle soon enough.

    Given the rally in bonds today, and my extreme overweighting in Treasury bills and bonds, I will probably be up slightly in my assets held in brokerage accounts. Pricing of those securities will appear tomorrow.

    Bitcoin is not responding well to the most recent Trump created chaos. Gold continues to rally above $4,000 per ounce while bitcoin dived in price today. Bitcoin was around $125,482 on 10/6 and is now around $113,330. while the gold price during that time frame has risen from about $3,950 per ounce to $4,018 now.

    The wild swings in the bitcoin price is one reason why it can not function as a currency and a medium of exchange for goods and services except to a very limited decree.

    The gold continuous futures contract closed today at $4,035.7, up $63.1 per ounce.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00

    I thought the U.S. stock market was overvalued before this latest flare up in trade negotiations. A trade embargo with China could end up being a trigger for a correction at a minimum, possibly for the onset of a bear market when accompanied by more weak economic data and higher inflation numbers.

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  7. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/10/bhk-chct-cve-glq-good-kbwy-kim-maa-mdt.html

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