Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Outflow Corporate Bonds (12): $12,234.28 in principal amount
I am not selling any corporate bonds maturing in 2029 or earlier. I have been reducing my interest rate risk in corporate bonds by a significant reduction, close to $100K, in my corporate bonds maturing in 2032 and thereafter.
Short Term Realized Gain Corporate Bonds: $393.88 (all recently bought at discounts and sold at premiums to their $1,000 par values)
Inflow Common Stocks: $1,057.04
I am in a stall mode for common stocks. I am not comfortable with valuations taking into my investment objectives, age and financial condition. Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?-Advisor Perspectives (9/4/25).
Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,507.66
Realized Gain Stocks/Stock Funds: $343.02
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: $450.62
Inflow Bitcoin ETFs: $355.44
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $5,000 in principal amount. I have lost interest in T Bill purchases.
Treasury Yield Curve September 2025:
Treasury Real Yield Curve September 2025:
5 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.42%
10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate: 2.36%
FedWatch - CME Group 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut at the 9/17/25 meeting and an 84.5% probability of at least another 25 basis point cut at the 10/29/25 meeting.
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CPI August: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M08 Results
Month-to-Month CPI: .4% (.1% higher than the consensus)
Month-to-Month Core CPI: .3% (in line)
Annual CPI: 2.9%, up from 2.7%
Annual Core CPI: 3.1%, unchanged
Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) Summary - 2025 A01 Results, discussed at U.S. economy is worse than thought with 1.2 million fewer jobs — what that means for the Fed Job growth estimates were revised down by 911,000 for the period April 2024 to March 2025. The revision suggests about 76,000 per months fewer jobs than previously reported by BLS. The revised average monthly new job total for this 12 month period is now at 71,000 new jobs per month, down from the previously reported average of 147,000.
The final estimate will be published in January 2026.
Based on historical patterns for these revisions, the likely final number will be lower than 911,000. The monthly releases are based on surveys of households and companies. The revised data is based on the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages that is based on state records of actual employees covering about 95% of the workforce.
For the week ending 9/6/25, the initial unemployment claims increased to 263,000, the highest since 10/23/21:
New tariff rules bring 'maximum chaos' as surprise charges hit consumers Secretary of the Treasury Bessent claims that consumers do not pay the republican tariff taxes. This article discusses the tariff charges on small parcels that were tariff free until Trump unilaterally repealed the law for tariff free treatment.
Trump's tariffs are slowly finding their way into consumer prices (9/11/25) Groceries were up .6% month-to-month, the largest monthly increase since May 23. Coffee rose 3.6% month-to-month and is up 20.9% over the past year. Motor vehicle parts rose .6% month-to-month. Apparel prices were up .6% month-to-month.
Inflation rose to 2.9% in August. Here's why a gold investment makes sense now. - CBS News
Scott Bessent’s Investing Career Was a Catastrophe (w/ Marshall Brandt) - YouTube I made the same observation soon after he was nominated. Bessent was a failed hedge fund manager.
The FF rate cuts that are currently predicted in the federal funds futures contracts may have minimal positive impact on new job creation since the current problems in the job market are primarily related to the negative impacts created by Trump's policies and to a lesser extent by increasing use of automation in manufacturing and AI in general which will be reducing job availability for many decades to come. Interest rates are relatively benign now without any cuts in the FF range and are too low now given the current inflation rates (PCE and CPI) and the reasonably expected increases in those inflation rates.
I have seen multiple Microsoft commercials about its AI product (365 Copilot) In each one, the boss asks for an idea, and one employee in a group types a few words into the Microsoft AI product as the other employees have the deer in the headlights look, Microsoft quickly comes up with a genius answer, the employee raises their hand with the solution, and the idea is adopted with the boss being pleased with the solution offered by the employee who does not divulge its source. Whenever I see those ads, a question pops into my mind. Why not dispense with everyone in the room, including the boss, and have some minimum wage employee type the few words into the AI inquiry?
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Trump and Epstein:
Trump Epstein letter and drawing from 'birthday book' released Trump claims that he did not sign the letter. He knows when making that denial that anyone interested can compare his signature on the card with publicly available signatures like the ones reproduced below.
His press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who has zero credibility IMO, posted on X, "The latest piece published by the Wall Street Journal PROVES this entire ‘Birthday Card’ story is false. As I have said all along, it’s very clear President Trump did not draw this picture, and he did not sign it."
Hardly, when comparing the signature on the birthday card with others where he signed only his first name.
Birthday Card Signature:
Speaker Johnson walks backs comment that Trump was an ‘FBI informant’ in Epstein case | CNN Politics
Ask yourself why Trump is pressuring republicans to keep the Epstein files secret?
Donald Trump will resign if Epstein files check out | David Cay Johnston - YouTube Johnston is talking about the alleged compromising photos of Trump with "young women" that the FBI seized from Epstein's safe. The source of that information is Michael Wolff. Epstein Showed Me Photos of Trump with Topless Young Women Sitting in His Lap, Claims Author When interviewing Epstein, Wolff claims that he went to his safe and pulled out the photos to show Wolff. Trump will never resign. He will simply claim that any compromising photos are fake.
The Yale Review | Michael Wolff on Donald Trump’s Jeffrey Epstein…
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Trump loses $83.3 million E. Jean Carroll defamation appeal; Decision.pdf. This is the second E.Jean Carroll case that resulted in a $60M punitive damage award against Trump for repeating the same claims that a jury had found libelous in the previous case.
The U.S. Court of Appeals earlier upheld the $5 million defamation verdict against Trump and denied a rehearing en banc. Appeals court rejects Trump's bid to challenge $5 million E. Jean Carroll judgment - ABC News (6/13/25). Trump says that he is going to appeal that decision to the Supreme Court. The appeal raises some evidence issues in a civil trial that the Supreme Court rarely, if ever, reviews. If the Supreme Court grants certiorari and reverses the judgement for Carroll, it will be seen as more home cooking by the six Republican Justices.
Trump’s HUD Secretary Scott Turner: "Father, we thank you for our president, Donald J. Trump, whom you have anointed and appointed for this time…thank you that the president prioritizes prayer.". (emphasis added) If Trump was anointed by a Supreme Being, which is something that I do not believe, I would go with the other one as the more likely choice. (My videos: Trump: Chosen by God, the Devil and/or the Voters? - YouTube; Trump's Latest Grift Hawking Bibles- Trump as a Modern Day Elmer Gantry - YouTube)
There is no end to Trump's Cabinet secretaries groveling and sniveling in their praise of him. 'Thank You President': Cabinet Meeting Turns Reality TV | The One Where They ALL Just Praised Trump - YouTube Disgusting is the kindest comment that I can make about that spectacle.
Amy Coney Barrett Rates Fellow Justices During Cringey Book Tour Interview - YouTube
How Originalism Killed the Constitution - The Atlantic The Republican Justices are originalists when that achieves the desired result. (My video: Brief history of results oriented Supreme Court Decisions - YouTube). They will also use the "plain meaning" interpretation standard when that achieves the desired result. (My Video: Supreme Court Resolution of Fisher v U S Impact on Trump's Criminal Case under 18 USC 1512(c)(2) - YouTube. The plain meaning of that statute did not require that a document be destroyed in order to bring a charge for obstruction of an official proceeding. The Republican Justices rewrote the statute that had the result of insulating Trump from sending a mob on January 6th to disrupt an official proceeding of Congress to certify the election results. And, as shown in an amicus brief submitted by historians in the Heller case, the Republicans Justices will ignore actual history when divining the original intent that accomplishes the desired result. Amicus Brief, District of Columbia v. Heller.pdf.
ICE can now stop people due to race, language and job. What we know - USA Today (9/10/25) Note what ICE did to someone just based on his skin color. This was a 6-3 decision. Five Republican Justices gave no reason for their decision. Brett Kavanaugh attempted to explain why he joined the other 5 Republicans in a concurring opinion. Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo (09/08/2025).pdf
Did Trump Say ‘I Couldn’t Care Less’ About Unifying America After Charlie Kirk Shooting? -Times Now; Trump says he 'couldn’t care less' about unity as Fox host presses him on right-wing radicals - Alternet.org Yes, that is exactly what he said. Trump declines to call for unity after Charlie Kirk killing in stunning move - The Guardian
In TrumpWorld, anyone, who does not believe Trump is the Chosen One, is a radical left lunatic and that includes everyone who makes fact based criticisms of his actions and rhetoric.
Fed Governor Cook declared her Atlanta property as “vacation home,” documents show | Reuters; Lisa Cook bank docs appear to contradict mortgage fraud allegations I would not use the word appear. The loan documents clearly showed that Ms. Cook declared the Atlanta property, not as a primary residence, but as a vacation home. The documentation on file at Fulton County stipulate that the house is to be used as a primary residence "unless Lender otherwise agrees in writing" In a document prepared by the Lender, the following statement appears: "Property Use: Vacation Home". I do not know whether Bill Pulte knew this information before making his criminal referral for mortgage fraud. The same question needs to be answered by the DOJ lawyers who filed a document in federal district court to remove Cook: DOJ Filing in Opposition to Cook's TRO Motion.pdf
If Ms. Cook's attorneys have not already included this evidence in their court pleadings, I would view any such omission as negligent representation. I did not see any reference to these rebuttal documents in the filings. COOK v. TRUMP, 1:25-cv-02903 – CourtListener.com The most basic research before filing anything with the court would be to gather and review all of the mortgage related documents.
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1. Small Ball Sells:
I am reducing my exposure to BDC stocks. I have been noting in prior discussions that net investment income per share has been trending down as floating rate coupons, priced at spreads to short term rates, have been resetting at lower interest rates. This trend will likely accelerate with additional Fed rate cuts.
The BDC borrowing costs have been trending up. I am referring mostly to new issues of senior unsecured debt compared to coupons on vintage SU bonds.
Many BDCs have also started to incur what I view as unacceptable increases in nonaccrual loans as a percentage of total loans. That trend has been occurring even though the economy was still in a growth mode. A recession would accelerate the non-performing loans.
I am redeploying the proceeds into more small buys of equity REIT stocks who will benefit from lower interest rates.
A. Pared SCM Again - Sold 10 at $14.78:
Quote: Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
Proceeds: $147.8
Management: External
Website: Stellus Capital Management
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 34 and ends at page 68).
At page 81, the company states that the loans on nonaccrual were then at 8.3% based on cost and 5.4% based on fair value).
Profit Snapshot: +$73.25 (9/5/25 sale only)
Last Substantive Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Bought 5 SCM at $7.41 in Fidelity Account (8/15/20 Post); Item # 3.J. Added 10 SCM at $7.85; 5 at $7.65; 10 at $7.5 (7/18/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Added 10 SCM at $7.8; 2 at $6.26, 3 at $5.30; 5 at $7.53 (5/9/20 Post).
Net Asset Value per share history:
6/30/25: $13.21
12/31/24: $13.46
9/30/24: $13.55
12/31/23: $13.26
12/31/22: $14.02
9/30/22: $14.18 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 at page 1
6/30/22: $14.32 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22
12/31/21: $14.61
9/30/21: $14.15
6/30/21: $14.07
3/31/21: $14.03 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 at page 3
12/31/20: $14.03 10-K at page 74
12/31/19: $14.14
12/31/18: $14.09
12/31/17: $13.81
12/31/16 $13.69
12/31/15: $13.19
12/31/14: $13.94
12/31/13: $14.54
November 2012: IPO at $15 ($14.46 after underwriters discount)
New average cost per share: $6.24 (10 shares)
Reduced from $6.85
Dividend: Monthly at $.1333 per share ($1.6 annually)
SCM Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $6.24: 25.64%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/24):
NII per share: $.34, down from $.48
Quarterly Dividend per share: $.3999 at $.1333 monthly
Net Asset Value per share: $13.21
Company assessment of credit quality:
 |
| Page 74, 10-Q |
In the last paragraph of the preceding snapshot, SCM notes that it had "loans to five portfolio companies that were on non-accrual status, which represented approximately 6.8% of our loan portfolio at cost and 3.8% at fair value."
Company estimate of how interest rate changes impact NII:
 |
| Page 85, 10-Q |
Net Realized Gains (Losses) During Quarter:
One way to get rid of a nonaccrual loan is simply to sell it for a loss before the quarter ends.
Other Sell Discussions:Item # 1.N. Pared SCM - Sold 5 at $14 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.15); Item # 3.B. Pared SCM - Sold 5 at $14.76 (1/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.15); Item # 3.B. Pared SCM - Sold 5 at $14.76 WU (profit snapshot = $36.15); Item # 2.B. Eliminated SCM in Vanguard Taxable Account Sold 30 at $15.36 and Item # 2.C. Eliminated SCM in Schwab Account-Sold 10 at $15.55 (2/20/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $310.04); Item # 3.C. Pared SCM in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $13.89 (8/23/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.69); Item 2.L. Pared SCM in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $14 (12/3/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.75); Item # 2.B. Sold 8.558 SCM shares at $13.19 (8/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.73); Item # 2.G. Pared SCM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 10 at $13.2 (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.33); Item # 1.C. Pared SCM in Fidelity Taxable -Sold 13 at $12.46 and 13+ at $13.25 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.04); Item # 1.F. Pared SCM in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $11.08 and Item #1.G. Pared SCM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $11.17 (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshots = $14.23); Item # 3 Sold 50 SCM at $13.72 (9/21/19 Post)(eliminating position as of that date; profit snapshot = $3.75); Item # 1.I. Sold 20 SCM at $7.61 (8/22/20 Post)(contains snapshots of prior trades; profit snapshot = $10.84); Item # 1.B. Sold 32+ SCM at $14.22-Used Commission Free Trade (2/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $78.09); Item # 1.A. Sold Highest Cost Lot-50 Shares at $12.63 (5/3/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $34.24); Item 2.B. Sold 100 SCM at $14.23 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$285.96); Item # 2 Sold 100 SCM at $13.02 (1/12/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $141.96)
SCM Realized Gains to Date: $1,273.62
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
B. Eliminated TSLX - Sold 15+ at $24.58+:
Quote: Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc. (TSLX)
Proceeds: $382.94
Externally Managed
2024 SEC Filed Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Pared TSLX - Sold 5 at $22.47 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.95); Item # 2.F. Sold 3 TSLX at $21.41 (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.83)
Buy Discussions: Item # 2.O. Added to TSLX - Bought 1 at $17.58 (5/20/23 Post); Item # 1.G. Added to TSLX - Bought 1 at $17.87 (4/29/23 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to TSLX - Bought 5 at $18.3; 5 at $18.1 (12/13/22 Post); Item # 5.G. Initiated TSLX - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $18.6 (12/6/22 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$99.28
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.46 per share
TSLX Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends: $.18 paid so far in 2025; $.25 per share paid in 2024
Next Ex Dividend: 9/15/25
Net Asset Value per share history:
For a BDC, I view this history as being stable. The question is whether the premium to net asset value is too high for a BDC. Using the $17.04 net asset value per share as of 6/30/25 and the $24.58 stock price, the premium to net asset value per share was 30.68%. Since many BDCs have persistent declines in net asset value per share, investors tend to price BDCs that can maintain a relatively stable number over time at premiums while the asset incinerators will be priced at substantial discounts.
6/30/25: $17.04
12/31/24: $17.16
12/31/23: $17.04
12/31/22: $16.48
9/30/22: $16.36
12/31/21: $16.84
12/31/20: $17.16
12/31/19: $16.83
12/31/18: $16.25
12/31/17: $16.09
12/31/16: $15.95
12/31/15: $15.15
12/31/14: $15.53
12/31/13: $15.52
IPO in March 2013: Prospectus (public offering at $16 per share with estimated proceeds to $15.04, excluding internal expenses connected with the offering of about $.43 per share)
NII per share: $.54, down from $.59
"As of June 30, 2025, the Company’s portfolio based on fair value consisted of 92.4% first-lien debt investments, 0.9% second-lien debt investments, 1.6% mezzanine debt investments, and 5.1% equity investments."
96.5% of loans at floating rates
Weighted average yield of debt investments at cost: 12%, down from 13.9%
.6% of loans at fair value on nonaccrual status
C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in SAR - Sold 5 at $24.71 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Saratoga Investment Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $123.55
SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year Ending 2/28/25
5 Year Financial Data:
 |
| Page 58 Annual Report |
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to SAR - Bought 10 at $23.25; 10 at $22.55 - Fidelity Account (5/10/24 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to SAR - Bought 5 at $24; 5 at $23.5 - Fidelity Account (10/14/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $8.55
Net asset value per share history:
Average cost per share remaining position -Fidelity Account: $24.24 (50 shares)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 5/31/25):
NII per share: $.66 for the Q/E 5/31/25, down from $1.05 for the Q/E 5/31/24
Dividend Paid per share during Quarter: $.75
“Our overall credit quality for this quarter remained steady at 99.7% of credits rated in our highest category, with the two investments remaining on non-accrual status being Zollege and Pepper Palace, both of which have been successfully restructured, representing only 0.3% and 0.6% of fair value and cost, respectively."
Portfolio Composition: "86.9% of first lien term loans, 0.7% of second lien term loans, 1.7% of unsecured term loans, 2.8% of structured finance securities, and 7.9% of common equity."
"The weighted average current yield on Saratoga Investment’s portfolio based on current fair values was 10.7%, which was comprised of a weighted average current yield of 11.3% on first lien term loans, 16.8% on second lien term loans, 10.6% on unsecured term loans, 15.6% on structured finance securities and 0.0% on equity interests." (emphasis added) Adjusted weight average current yield was at 15.5% for the Q/E 5/31/24.
Given the cost of the debt, management fees, and the weighted average current yield of 10.7%, there would be a narrow and shrinking spread on loans made with borrowed money after the SAR's internal expenses.
SAR did realized some gains on investments during the quarter:
Cash and Cash Equivalents were high at $224.2867+M
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.J. Sold 35 SAR at $18.65 (7/11/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = Net of +$34.91)
Exchange Traded Bonds: SAR has a number of exchange traded bonds outstanding:
D. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in BBDC - Sold 20 at $9.49+:
Quote: Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $189.93
Buy Discussions: Item # 2.G. Added to BBDC in Schwab Account - Bought 2 at $8.61 (5/16/25 Post); Item # 1.E. Added to BBDC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $8.79 (5/2/25 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to BBDC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $8.67 (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to BBDC - Bought 10 at $8.94 - Vanguard Account (11/25/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added 40 BBDC at $7.75 - Vanguard Account (7/15/23 Post);Item # 2.F. Added 5 BBDC at $7.21 - Vanguard Account (5/20/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 5 BBDC at $7.65 - Vanguard Account (3/19/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item #1.K. Pared BBDC - Sold 10 at $10.76 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.97); Item # 1.G. Pared Duplicate Position BBDC in Fidelity Account - Sold 6+ at $9.97 and Item 1.H. Sold 5 BBDC at $10.05 - Schwab Account (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99)
BBDC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/25 (owned as of)
Special Dividends:
$.05 went ex dividend on 3/5/25
$.05 went ex dividend on 6/4/25
$.05 went ex dividend on 9/3/25 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
NII per share = $.28, down from $.40 in the 2024 second quarter
Net Asset Value per share: $11.18
BBDC realized a $15.157M loss during the quarter, page 112.
Portfolio Composition:
 |
| 10-Q at 69 |
Company estimate of credit risks:
 |
| P.112 |
Company estimate of how changes in interest rates impact NII:
 |
| 10-Q at pages 132-133 |
BBDC Acquisitions: Barings BDC Completes Merger with Sierra Income Corporation (2/25/22); Barings BDC, Inc. Completes Merger With MVC Capital, Inc. (9/23/2020)
SU Bonds: I own 2 Barings BDC 3.3% SU bonds maturing on 11/23/26 that were bought at a 90.1 total cost. Item # 4.B. (12/9/23 Post)(YTM then at 7.066%)
Last Bond Offering (9/25): Prospectus for $300M 5.2% SU Maturing in 2028. Proceeds will be used to pay down a credit facility that had about a $547.3 balance as of 6/30/25 (Page S-16)
E. Eliminated Remaining Duplicate Position in BBDC - Sold 40 at $9.46 in Schwab Account:
See Item # 1.D. above.
Proceeds: $292.42
Profit Snapshot: $40.62
This is a snapshot of my 2025 sell transaction in this account:
I still own 100 shares in my Vanguard account with an average cost per share at $8.23:
 |
| Price as of 9/10/25 close |
F. Pared JRI Again - Sold 10 at $13.75: 10 at $13.98 - Vanguard Account:
Proceeds: $277.3
I am selling my highest cost shares.
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth (JRI) Portfolio | Morningstar Lists top 23 holdings, accessible to non-subscribers.
Profit Snapshot: $59.62 (9/9-10/25 sales only)
New Average cost per share: $9.81
 |
| Snapshot after pare/Closing Price on 9/10/25 |
The AC per share was reduced from $9.93.
Dividend: Monthly at $.1335 per share ($1.602 annually)
JRI Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
ROC supported.
Yield at $9.81 AC per share: 16.33%
Data Date of 9/10/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share:
Closing Market Value:
Premium: +2.19%
Average 3 Year Discount: -10.15%
Sourced: JRI - CEF Connect
JRI Realized Gains to Date: $909.32
I discussed this CEF in my last post and have nothing further to add to my recent discussions. Item # 1.C. Pared JRI Again - Sold 10 at $13.48 (9/8/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.04)
G. Pared HIW Again - Sold 3 at $32.24 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Highwoods Properties Inc. - Office REIT
Proceeds: $96.72
I sold my highest cost shares.
As of 6/30/25, Highwoods through its operating partnership "owned or had an interest in
Rental Income by Property Locations:
 |
| In Thousands, 10-Q at page 29 |
Website: Highwoods
Profit Snapshot: $32.52
Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Sold 5 HIW at $30.2 - Highest Cost Shares (5/23/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $29.77) I discussed the 2025 first quarter in this post. HIW Announces First Quarter 2025 Results.pdf
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $18.13, 1 at $17.93; 3 at $17.74 (12/2/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to HIW - Bought 1 at $20.2; 1 at $19.85; 1 at $19.31; 1 at $18.87 (10/7/23 Post)
New Average cost per share: $19.74 (25+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot after Pare - Closing Price as of 9/12/25 |
The AC per share was reduced from $19.92.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50 per share ($2 annually), last raised from $.48 effective for the 2021 third quarter. I am not aware of another pure office REIT that raised its dividend after the pandemic. Other office REITs slashed or reduced their payouts.
HIW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share: 10.13%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/18/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
HIW Announces Second Quarter 2025 Results.pdf
Revenue: $200.6M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.17
FFO per share: $.89
Reconciliation GAAP to FFO:
HIW does not provide an AFFO number which I view as the most relevant number for an office REIT.
The AFFO calculation deducts form FFO both maintenance expenses, a major item for office REITs, and pretend revenues created by the straight accounting convention. The company does provide information on the straight line revenues elsewhere. The total during the quarter was $7.391M. The AFFO calculation would have an add back for stock compensation expense.
I do not have enough information to make an informed guess on the AFFO per share number, but believe that it would likely exceed the quarterly dividend of $.50 per share.
Ended the quarter with in-service occupancy at 85.6% and in-service leased rate of 89.9%. I view those as somewhat concerning numbers.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B Pared HIW Again - Sold 2 at $36.26 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.8); Item # 3.F. Pared HIW - Sold 10 at $34.31; 5 at $35.77 (10/16/24)( profit snapshot = $50.6); Item # 1.I. Eliminated HIW - Sold 7 at $47.22 (2/3/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.31)
Owned SU Bond:
2 of the Highwoods LP 3.875% SU Maturing on 3/1/27, rated at Baa2/BBB-: Bond Page | FINRA.org, discussed at Item # 2.C. Bought 2 Highwoods LP 3.875% SU Maturing on 3/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.334 (4/4/25 Post)(YTM then at 4.795%)
2. Corporate Bonds:
A. Sold 2 Williams 5.3% SU Maturing on 9/30/35 at 101.638:
Issuer: Williams Cos. (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure
I have a position in the common stock that I have been paring. My last sell discussion can be found here: Item # 1.B. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $61.1 (4/4/25 Post) That pare reduced my position to 40+ shares with an average cost per share at $23.2 (see snapshot in that post)
Proceeds at 101.538 after $1 per bond commission.
Principal Received: $2,030.76
Accrued interest received from buyer: $20.32
Discussed at Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Williams 5.3% SU Maturing on 9/30/35 at a Total Cost of 99.389 (7/15/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $42.98
%20+$42.98%20.png){kind=small}
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
I am not selling any of my other owned WMB SU bonds:
4 of the 4% SU Maturing on 9/15/25- FINRA Page
2 of the 3.7% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 - FINRA Page
2 of the 4.9% SU Maturing on 3/15/29 -FINRA.org; Item # 2.V. (2/5/25 Post) The total cost was slightly below par value.
B. Sold 2 ConocoPhillips 5% SU Maturing on 1/15/35 at 101.448:
Issuer: ConocoPhillips (COP)
Proceeds at 101.448 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,028.96
Accrued Interest Received from buyer: $15
Profit Snapshot: $33.56
%20$33.56%20.png){kind=small}
Discussed at Item # 3.B. Bought 2 ConocoPhillips 5% SU Maturing on 1/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.77 (7/9/25 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
C. Sold 2 Healthpeak Operating 5.375% SU Maturing on 2/15/35 at 102.560 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Operating entity for Healthpeak Properties Inc. (DOC) who guarantees the notes.
I own the common shares. My last buy discussions can be found here: Item # 3.C. Added 10 DOC at $16.9 - Schwab Account (8/19/25 Post); Item # 1.B. Added to DOC in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $16.98; 10 at $16.755 (8/12/25 Post)
Proceeds at 102.46 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,049.2
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $7.17
Profit Snapshot: $65.56
Discussed at Item # 2.D. Bought 2 Healthpeak Operating 5.375% SU Maturing on 2/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.182 (5/2/25 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
Owned DOC SU Bonds: 6
The Physicians Realty LP debt was guaranteed by Healthpeak and the Healthpeak LP after the acquisition, see page 103 of the 2024 10-K.
4 Physicians Realty LP 4.3% SU Maturing on 3/15/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Physicians Realty LP 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
D. Sold 2 Safehold LP 5.625% SU Maturing on 1/15/35 at 102.136:
Issuer: Operating entity for Safehold Inc. (SAFE) who guarantees the notes.
Proceeds at 102.036 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,040.72
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $17.58
Discussed at Item # 4.E. Bought 2 Safehold Operating LP 5.65% SU Maturing on 1/15/35 at a Total Cost of 98.167 (6/12/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $77.38
%20+$77.38%20.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
Fitch recently upgraded the bonds. Fitch Upgrades Safehold's Rating to 'A-'; Outlook Stable
E. Sold Duke Energy Carolinas 5.3% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 2/15/2040 at 102.174 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)
Proceeds at 102.074 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,041.48
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $7.66
Profit Snapshot: $78.18
%20+$78.18%20.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
F. Sold 2 UDR 5.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/2034 at 102.258 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT
I own the common stock.
Proceeds at 102.158 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,043.16 after commission
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $3.13
Discussed at Item # 3.A. Bought 2 UDR 5.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/34 at a Total Cost of 97.347 (5/12/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$96.22
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
I currently own the following UDR SU bonds:
I am not selling corporate bonds maturing in 2029 or earlier.
3. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
A. Started FBTC as a Placeholder in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $97.4; 1 at $96.77:
Quote: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund Overview
Cost: $292.26
Sponsor's website: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund
Expense ratio: .25%
Net Assets as of 8/31/25: $21.7B
Shares outstanding and Bitcoin owned as of 9/11/25:
A placeholder position is just a reminder, seen when I scroll through positions in an account, that I may want to buy more shares at lower prices.
I discussed the bitcoin ETF purchases in a comment and near the end of a YouTube video, Job Market Weakening as CPI rises - Bitcoin ETFs - YouTube at 7:29 I decided to start a placeholder position in 2 taxable account after reading this article: Opinion: America’s key lenders are snubbing Treasurys for gold-putting your 401(k) at risk. Here’s what to do now. - MarketWatch (subscription publication).
The legal form of this ETF is a grantor trust. The shareholders own a beneficial interest in the bitcoin owned by the trust:
B. Started IBIT as a Placeholder in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $63.18:
Quote: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Overview
Expense Ratio: .25%
Sponsor's website: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | IBIT
C. Added to COLD - Bought 5 at $13.47; 5 at $13.25 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Americold Realty Trust Inc. (COLD) - Internally Managed Cold Storage REIT
Cost: $133.58
Website: Cold Storage Warehouse, Value Added Services & Supply Chain Management | Americold
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Added to COLD - Bought 5 at $14.25; 5 at $13.95; 5 at $13.75 (9/8/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $15.51 (70 shares)
I am gradually averaging down until I hit 100 shares in this account.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
COLD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 5.93%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/35): I discuss this report here: Item # 3.C. Added to COLB - Bought 5 at $14.8; 5 at $14.5 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation As discussed in that post, investors were disappointed by this report.
C. Started Duplicate Position in OLP - Bought 10 at $23.21; 5 at $22.9 in Fidelity Account:
Quote: One Liberty Properties Inc. (OLP)
Cost: $346.6
Management: Internal
Website: One Liberty Properties, Inc.
"The Company acquires, owns and manages a geographically diversified portfolio consisting primarily of industrial properties. Many of these properties are subject to long-term net leases under which the tenant is typically responsible for the property’s real estate taxes, insurance and ordinary maintenance and repairs."
As of 6/30/25, OLP owned "103 properties (including two properties owned by consolidated joint ventures and two properties owned by unconsolidated joint ventures) located in 32 states. Based on square footage, our occupancy rate at June 30, 2025 is approximately 98.8%." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 25
OLP 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
Properties Sales Q/E 6/30/25:
 |
| 10-Q at page 12; Footnotes Omitted |
Property Sales Subsequent to 2nd Quarter:
 |
| 10-Q at page 13 |
This would be the sales after 6/30 until the filing of the 10-Q.
OLP notes the following challenges at page 25: "(i) due to the volatile economic environment (including the impact of threatened and/or imposed tariffs, and the related possibility of trade wars and the impact of the foregoing on us and in particular, on our seaport based industrial/warehouse properties), and (ii) at The Vue, our Beachwood, Ohio property. Our cash flow and profitability will be adversely impacted if these issues are not resolved in a satisfactory manner."
The Vue is an apartment complex. Property Details
As disclosed in a 9/11/25 SEC Filing, OLP and its ground lease tenant entered into an agreement to sell this property:
Note in this snapshot that OLP has not received any rental income from this property for several years. It is my understanding that OLP owns the ground leases. The property has not generated sufficient operating cash flow that would trigger the tenant to pay rent for the ground leases, see pages 32-33 of the Annual Report. Receiving $18.5M-$19M in cash that can be used to purchase income generating properties will be a positive assuming the deal closes in the 4th quarter.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $26.84 (9/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.93); Item # 2.A. Pared OLP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $25.12+ (8/15/24 Post)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added to OLP - Bought 5 at $18.8; 5 at $17.6 (10/7/23 Post)
Average cost per share this account: $23.11 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually), last raised from $.43 effective for the 2017 4th quarter payment.
OLP Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $23.11: 7.79%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/24/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Revenue: $24.645M
Weighted average diluted shares: 20.967M
OLP is a micro cap REIT.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.39
GAAP E.P.S. included a $6.531M gain from the sale of real estate. That gain is the only deduction in the FFO calculation.
FFO per share: $.45. This calculation excludes the gain from selling real estate and adds back the noncash depreciation expense of $6.61M.
AFFO per share: $.49. The largest add to FFO is the noncash stock compensation. The largest deduction is non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention.
Reconciliation:
I own 30+ OLP shares in my Schwab account that have an average cost per share of $19.06:
 |
| Snapshot Closing Price on 9/12/25 |
D. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $12.90:
Cost: $129
Management: External (For REITs, I view that as a negative)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
Properties- Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
GOOD SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Summary of risk factors starts at page 15 and ends at page 29.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 Owned as of 143 properties with 17M square feet that was 98.7% occupied with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7 years. GOOD is classified as a net lease REIT, see page 26.
Average cost per share this account: $13.76 (110 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share.
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Effective for the next payment, I changed my dividend option to reinvestment in this account only. I will continue doing so until the likely reinvestment price will exceed my average cost per share.
Yield at $13.76: 8.72%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/22/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 20 at $13.1 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
GOOD Realized Gains to Date: $442.99
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
Owned Equity Preferred Stock: 85 shares. Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Pfd. Series E Stock (GOODN); Prospectus {dividends paid monthly)
E. Added to Duplicate GOOD Position in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $12.95:
See Item # 3.D. above
Cost: $129.5
Average cost per share this account: $13.17 (30 shares)
Yield at $13.17: 9.11%
F. Started Duplicate Position in KRG in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $22.6:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Cost: $226.05
"As of June 30, 2025, the Company owned interests in 181 U.S. open-air shopping centers and mixed-use assets, comprising approximately 29.8 million square feet of gross leasable space."
Recent results have been negatively impacted by tenant bankruptcies, a subject discussed in this Fitch credit report. Fitch Rates Kite Realty's Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB' It will take time to release the vacant space.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post. Item # 2.B. Restarted KRG - Bought 5 at $22.5; 5 at $22.25 - Schwab Account (6/18/25 Post) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51 (10/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.8)
KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $22.6: 4.78%
The yield is looking more attractive to me compared to T Bill and MM rates.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/25
Next Ex Dividend: 10/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.L. Added to KRG in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.95 (8/5/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Owned Kite Realty LP SU Bonds:
Citations are to the FINRA pages.
4 Kite Realty LP 4% Coupon Maturing on 10/1/26
2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/31, recently purchased and discussed at Item # 5.E. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/31 at a Total Cost of 98.6 (6/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.205%); Bond Prospectus
I had 6 Kite Realty Bonds mature on 3/15/25.
Quote: Target Corp. (TGT)
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/25
TGT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
5 Year Chart to 9/9/25: Major Bear Market Pattern
Possible bottoming movement near $90 which barely generates some interest for me, along with the dividend yield, as a contrarian value investor. This is one ugly chart. Note the huge gap in 2022 that is nowhere close to being filled. Understanding Stock Gaps: Types, Examples, and Trading Insights The gap occurred on 5/18/22:
The company reported its first quarter earnings on 5/18/22: Target Corporation Reports First Quarter Earnings "The Company reported first quarter GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.16, down 48.2 percent from $4.17 in 2021. First quarter Adjusted EPS1 of $2.19 decreased 40.7 percent compared with $3.69 in 2021" (emphasis added, footnote omitted)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.E. Added to TGT - Bought 1 at $93.81; 1 at $91.38 (9/8/25 Post)
New Average cost per share: $93.13 (4 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.14 per share ($4.56 annually)
TGT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 4.896%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 8/2/25): I discussed that report and the reasons for my caution here: Item # 3.L. Started TGT as a Placeholder - Bought 1 at $96.43 (8/26/25 Post);SEC Filed Press Release
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 10 shares which may be changed up or down based on subsequent earnings reports.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 9/10/25 Auction - Schwab Account:
119 Day Bill
Matures on 1/13/26
Interest will be taxed in 2026 when held to maturity.
Interest: $63.83
Investment Rate: 3.954%
I may continue buy 4 and 6 month T Bills at auction but only in my Schwab account. I will restart 3 month bills in October which delays the tax recognition of the interest income into 2026.
5. Cash Flow into Fidelity Account on 9/15/25:
My investment focus is to generate a constant stream of cash flow from a portfolio with a standard deviation of less than 3 which is consistent with my personal financial objectives.
The 3 year SD for SPY is 14.77. SPY – Risk – SPDR® S&P 500® ETF | Morningstar
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives Highly overvalued using the analysis discussed in that article.
Bond Redemptions: $6,000
Dividends and Interest:
Corporate Bond Interest: $984
Dividends: $23.29
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I published a companion YT video to his blog post:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkVs5JY5isc
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
ReplyDelete96.64 -0.66 -0.68%
Last Updated: Sep 16, 2025 at 3:06 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=home_markets
Using a 1 year chart, the DXY 200 day SMA line is at 102.1 with the 50 SMA at 98.12.
The 52 week range is currently at 96.38-110.18,
A decline in DXY indicates U.S. dollar weakness against a basket of 6 currencies, weighted in the Euro. The other components are the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc.
Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV)
ReplyDelete$15.73 $1.55 +10.93%
Last Updated: Sep 17, 2025 at 11:48 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/roiv
ROIV is one of my Lottos.
Last Discussed:
Item # 3. E. Added to ROIV - Bought 5 at $11.17
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/11/aio-arcc-bce-bbdc-dow-feny-fsk-hppprc.html
AC per share at $11.57 (25 shares)
The pop today is due to this press release discussing the Phase 3 trial results trial for Brepocitinib in dermatomyositis:
https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-and-priovant-announce-positive-phase-3-valor-study
This drug was developed by Priovant Therapeutics, one of the companies where ROIV has an ownership interest. The ownership interest in Priovant is at 74% basic and 65% diluted as of 6/30/25:
10-Q at page 26
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036125030001/ef20050394_10q.htm
As a reminder, the FED predicted in December 2020 that the 2021 and 2022 PCE inflation would be 1.7% and 1.8%:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20201216.htm
In today's DOT plot 12 out of 19 FED voting members predicted at least 1 more cut in the FF rate this year (1 at more than 2) as they become more concerned about unemployment. 10 of 12 predicted two more cuts. Figure 2 in the Projections Table referenced above.
The forecast for 2026 PCE inflation prediction for 2026 is now at 2.6%, down from 3% in 2025 and falling again in 2027 to 2.1% in 2027:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250917.htm
The Fed has decided again to downplay the threat of inflation becoming embedded in the economy as it did when it continued extremely abnormal monetary policies in 2021 and into 2022.
My current opinion is that the actual inflation numbers in 2026 and 2027 will be significantly higher than the forecasts. It is also evident that the FED will be cutting rates more as inflation rises in the coming months.
The Fed would have a hard time explaining cutting interest rates this year with estimated 2026 PCE rising from 3% in 2025.
In the December 2024 projection materials, the FED predicted 2025 PCE Inflation at 2.5%, falling to 2.1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
The actual PCE Inflation numbers were 4.1% in 2021; 6.6% in 2022; 3.8% in 2023:
Deletehttps://ycharts.com/indicators/us_pce_inflation_rate_yearly
The 10oz box of lettuce that I have been buying was already smaller than prior boxes. The other day the box of lettuce was 8oz. Another shopper caught me looking quizzically at the box, and asked if something was wrong. We kept running into each other in the store, and he was making a running joke out of the shrunken box.
DeleteI find it hard to believe that we need to cut rates because inflation has come down so much.
My evidence is a box of lettuce. And many other thingsI buy.
Your Target buy I got my attention. I owned it near this price several years ago. (I have to do some digging because it was an Ameritrade so The data hasn't transferred to Schwab easily.)
DeleteI don't see indications The chart that it's recovering. But It is beaten up enough to be tempting.
The company was really hot in the middle of COVID. I wonder if they're making their bathrooms transgender welcoming that upset the magas did or is still making an impact. More recently they got boycotted for removing the DEI wordings to avoid Trump's wrath.
Land: TGT fits into my value contrarian style but I am extremely cautious with only 1 share buys. I have bought 1 more share at $88.88 since publishing this post.
DeleteI have doubts whether Target will achieve the earnings growth currently forecasted by the average E.P.S. estimates:
2025 2026 2027 2028
High 8.87 9.70 10.80 13.87
Low 8.38 8.65 9.10 9.43
Average 8.71 9.18 9.95 11.18
If the average estimates prove spot on, the stocks is undervalued and is supported by good dividend.
If the Target comment posted as anonymous, it was mine.
ReplyDeleteCOVID is alive and well. Middle of last week my dad was incapacitated, and In the hospital it turned out to be COVID. He'll be fine and the IV paxilovid seem to make a big difference.
I became curious this morning in comparing the performance of SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, with OEF that tracks the S&P 100. I wanted to verify or refute my belief that OEF has been (past tense) outperforming SPY.
ReplyDeleteAnnual Average Total Returns (dividends reinvested) Based on Price:
Sourced: Data through 9/18/25
OEF:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/oef/performance
SPY:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance
Both currently have 5 star ratings from Morningstar.
1 Year
SPY: 19.43%
OEF: 23.75%
3 Years
SPY: 21.31%
OEF: 24.99%
5 Year
SPY: 16.47%
OEF: 18.12%
10 Years
SPY: 14.88%
OEF: 16.24%
While SPY will be heavily weighted in the top 100 capitalization stocks, OEF will have a higher weighing as well as no exposure after rebalancing to the bottom 400 market capitalization stocks in the S&P 500.
There is a new ETF that focuses on the top 20 highest capitalization stocks.
iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF TOPT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/topt
This fund does not yet have performance data for 1 year. This ETF started to trade last October. I went ahead and bought a 5 share placeholder position and will briefly discuss that purchase in my next post.
Sponsor's website:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/339779/ishares-top-20-u-s-stocks-etf
The question, far from being answered, is whether TOPT will outperform OEF and SPY in the coming years.
I do not regard the dividends paid by these three ETFs as providing any support to the prices, viewing the payouts as immaterial.
The OEF fee is .2%
ReplyDeleteSPY fee is .0945%
VOO fee is .03%
The .19% greater fee for OEF is made up by the better performance.
Land: OEF, TOPT and SPY are all market capitalization weighted.
DeleteWhile past performance may not be predictive of relative future returns, both SPY and OEF have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted ETF (RSP) that has a 1 star rating from Morningstar.
RSP Annual Average Total Returns:
1 Year: 9.12%
3 Years: 12.84%
5 Years: 13.38%
10 Years: 11.5% compared to OEF at 16.24%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/rsp/performance
QQQ has the better performance numbers compared to OEF which beat out SPY :
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/qqq/performance
Annual Average Total Returns:
1 Year: 26.98%
3 Years: 28.02%
5 Years: 18.13%
10 Years: 19.8%
If I had to assign a reason that is causing the difference in performance numbers (QQQ, OEF, SPY, RSP), it would be the weightings in technology stocks.
XLK Annual average total returns:
1 Year 28.01%
3 Years 30.02%
5 Years 20.81%
10 Years 22.7%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/xlk/performance
All of the foregoing are just observations about historical returns.
I had plans to buy RSP to diversify. I was sure it was a good idea. But I looked at the charts and decided it didn't have enough potential to offset the higher fee. Glad I missed that opportunity....
DeleteMarket breath seems quite narrow for several years now. I wonder if it's a factor of more retail access to trading, that elevates the easy to see and easy to anticipate growth for big tech/social media companies.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/09/cold-eai-emp-gty-krg-lxp-nbxg-tgt-topt.html