Friday, September 17, 2021

AMKBY, BHB, BWG, CNQ, GLD, GNL, LRGF, NWHUF, ORKLY, SPLK, TRST, VEU, VTV

Economy:

Over the past year through August, CPI increased 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 4%. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose .3% in August after rising .5% in July. 


Consumer Price Index Summary

Climate change, supply chain and labor issues are making food pricier

CNBC poll shows very little will persuade unvaccinated Americans to get Covid shots  

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Markets and Market Commentary

3M Has an Inflation Problem-Barron's (9/13/21)

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend on its Common Shares 3 cents, or approximately 11%, to $0.30 per Share 

Aegon redeemed its $25 par value floating rate hybrid security that formerly traded under the symbol AEB. Aegon calls USD 250 million in perpetual capital securities | Aegon This security paid qualified dividends at the greater of 4% or .875 above the 3 month Libor rate. The security paid a 4% coupon throughout my ownership period which started in 2008. Aegon Hybrids (contains snapshots of AEB round-trip trades; AEB total profit = $3,641.61) I did not own shares on the redemption date. The last sale was discussed here: Item # 2.A. (10/3/20 Post) The lowest price paid was $4.8 per share: Buy of 50 AEB at $4.8 (2/23/2009)

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Earnings Reports Owned Stocks

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) SEC Filed 3rd Fiscal Quarter (7/31/21) Earnings Press Release (All amounts are in Canadian Dollars; Net income of $2.542B; E.P.S. = $1.99; Adjusted E.P.S. at $2.01; the consensus was at $1.898 per Fidelity; ROE = 15%, The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Box (BOX) Reports Strong Fiscal Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results (F/Q ending 7/31/21; GAAP net loss of $.08 on a 12% Y-O-Y increase in revenues to $214.5M; non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.21 with the consensus at $.186 per Fidelity; free cash flow = $29.8M, up $16.5 Y-O-Y; "repurchased $308 Million of Class A Common Stock Including Modified Dutch Auction Tender (as of August 24, 2021)"; FY 2022 revenue guidance between $856M-$860M) 

Royal Bank of Canada (RY) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the 3rd Fiscal Quarter Ending 7/31/21 (All amounts are in Canadian Dollars; Net Income of $4.3B; E.P.S. = $2.98; consensus at $2.691 per Fidelity; pre-provision, pre-tax earnings of $5B, up 6%;  earnings benefited from a $638M release from reserves; ROE = 19.6%. I have not discussed my purchases here)

Salesforce (CRM) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Second Quarter ending 7/31/21 ("Second quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.56, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.48. Mark-to-market accounting of the company’s strategic investments benefited GAAP diluted earnings per share by $0.42 based on a U.S. tax rate of 25% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share by $0.43 based on a non-GAAP tax rate of 21.5%"; consensus was at $.917 non-GAAP per Fidelity; "Revenue of $6.34 Billion, up 23% Year-Over-Year, 21% in Constant Currency"; project non-GAAP E.P.S. for the 3rd fiscal quarter at $.91-$.92 and $4.36-$4.38 for the fiscal 2022 year; projects fiscal 2022 revenue at $26.2B to $26.3B)

Toronto Dominion (TD) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (All Amounts in Canadian Dollars; E.P.S. $1.92, adjusted to $1.96 with the consensus at $1.92; adjusted net income = $3.628B; total capital ratio = 18.5%; dividend payout ratio = 41.2%; adjusted ROTE = 20.9% and 20.8% unadjusted; adjusted efficiency ratio = 52%. Currently, TD is my largest Canadian bank position at 38 shares with an average cost per share of $51.33. I have been selling the highest cost lots with the last discussion at Item # 2.H. Sold 2.621 TD Shares Purchased with Dividends at $70.97)

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Grady Knox, Tennessee student, heckled at board meeting after revealing grandmother died of covid-19 - The Washington Post This is standard fare for Trumpsters. The incident occurred in Murfreesboro, TN which is a short drive from where I live. 

Joseph Angel Alvarez Killed Lawyer and Shot Her Husband 3 Times Over Their Biden Votes: Police The Trumpster said he wanted to eliminate both the husband and wife for being part of the "Jewish Satanist Party". 

Hear the calls Trump made as he tried to steal the election - YouTube

Larry Kudlow Says He Misses 'Calmness' Of Donald Trump 

Trump’s MAGA Movement Sets Its Sights On Brazil’s Democracy 

Trump Keeps Lying About Jimmy Kimmel-YouTube Trump constantly creates his own reality that has nothing to do with what is true. 

'Peril,' by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, reports Gen. Mark A. Milley called a Chinese general twice to pledge the U.S. wouldn’t strike - The Washington Post  

U.S. top general secretly called China over fears Trump could spark war -report | Reuters

Trump and GOP accuse General Milley of treason-YouTube  

Trump, Larry Elder falsely claim fraud before California recall votes are counted - The Washington Post America's anti-democracy party will constantly claim voter fraud-without proof of course. The dominant purpose is to justify voting restrictions that make it more difficult and onerous for legal voters, who vote the wrong way, to vote.  

Donald Trump endorses Mark Finchem for Arizona secretary of state Finchem received Trump's endorsement after tweeting that Arizona's certified 2020 election results needed to be decertified with Donald declared the winner instead of Biden who actually won the state. Finchem will know how to count the votes right when and if he becomes Arizona's chief election official. 

The California Recall's Warning for Democracy - The Atlantic California's recall process is fundamentally anti-democratic as used by the anti-democracy, pro-authoritarian Trumpster party. The challenge is made in an off year when voters are generally far more apathetic about voting. The general idea is to replace a Democrat with a republican who would have no chance of winning in a general election, even a fringe candidate like Larry Elder could become governor. California recall embodies the GOP's embrace of Trump's anti-democracy politics | Salon.com Newsom had won the election in 2018 with 62% of the vote. 2018 California gubernatorial election - Wikipedia 

Larry Elder Calls to Fix Twisted Results of Recall Election (note his threat to resort to the "ammo box")  

Pennsylvania GOP lawmakers vote to subpoena voter records, official emails in 2020 probe - The Washington Post Besides caving into Trump's demands, the purpose IMO is to intimidate voters who voted the wrong way and to undermine faith in the democratic process. The Republicans are seeking "the names, dates of birth, driver’s license numbers, last four digits of Social Security numbers, addresses and methods of voting for millions of people who cast ballots" in the November election. 

Trump expresses solidarity with rioters arrested in Jan. 6 attack ahead of planned rally - The Washington Post There is going to be a protest this weekend in support of the Republican attack on the nation's capital. 

Since I am pro-democracy, I have become a one issue voter. 

1 in 500 Americans have died of covid-19 since the pandemic began - Washington Post (9/15/21)

Idaho, a state dominated by Trumpsters and with a low vaccination rate, is rationing healthcare due to a surge in Covid cases. Idaho Is Rationing Health Care Statewide As It Struggles To Cope With COVID-19-NPRRyan Cole, backed by Idaho Republicans, called coronavirus vaccines 'fake.' Now he sits on an Idaho health board, as hospitals ration care - The Washington Post;  What Percentage of Idaho is Vaccinated? | Idaho Vaccine Tracker | USAFacts Idaho has a population of about 1.85M and 2 U.S. senators. Trump carried the state with 63.8% of the vote in 2020. Idaho presidential election results 2020 

Rationing of healthcare has occurred recently in another Trumpster state. Alaska's Largest Hospital Says The Strain Of COVID Is Forcing It To Ration Care-NPR

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1. Eliminated NWHUF-Sold 45 at $10.76 and 5 at $10.21



Quotes: 




This leaves me with 600 of the CAD priced units traded on the Toronto stock exchange held in my Interactive Broker account. Item # 1.B. Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$9.67 (1/20/19 Post)Item #1.A Bought 100 NWH.UN:CA at C$10.58 (3/12/18 Post)Item # 6.A. Added 100 NWH.UN at C$10.62 (8/13/17 Post) 

Snapshot as of close on 9/16/21: Unrealized Gain = +C$2,2700 

Last NWHUF Sell DiscussionItem # 1 Sold 350 of 400 NWHUF at US$10.42 (8/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = +US$965.98) As noted in that post, Schwab informed me that there may be problems going forward in trading the USD priced units traded on the Grey Market due to a SEC rule change, which is the main reasons for liquidating those shares.  

Profit Snapshot: +$193.47

Last Buy Discussion of USD Grey Market SharesItem # 1 Added 100 NWHUF at US$ 6.83 (6/27/20 Post)Item # 3.A. Added 50 NWHUF at US$8.3; 50 at US$8.5; 50 at US$6.75 and 50 at US$5.57 (4/4/20 Post) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Second Quarter 2021 Results Including Annual Per Unit AFFO and NAV Growth of 8% and 6%, Respectively

AFFO = C$.22

AFFO Payout Ratio = 93% (normalized to 87%)

Number of Properties: 190

Occupancy = 96.7%

Weighted Average Lease Term Expiry = 14.2 years

Net Asset Value per share = C$13.14

Debt to Gross Book Value -Including Convertibles = 43.1%

Last CAD Priced Unit Sell DiscussionItem # 1. A. Sold 1000 at C$10.68 (/7/31/17)(profit at US$606.31) This lot was held in my Fidelity account. I quit using this account for trades on foreign exchanges and switched to Interactive Brokers based on its lower commissions and currency conversion fees. 

Northwest Healthcare Realized Gains to Date = US$1,872.74 

2. Small Ball-All About Risk Mitigation

I am moving back into regional bank stocks previously sold at higher prices. So far the new positions are immaterial and likely to remain so. Many of these stocks do offer well above average dividend yields and single digit trailing 12 month P/E ratios. The major headwind remains net interest margin compression resulting from the FED's 13 year Jihad Against the Saving Class which, as of yet, shows no sign of ending soon. 

I am continuing to unload small ball stock ETF positions bought more than 1 year ago. ETFs that have already been sold will be discussed in the next 4 posts. I use stock ETFs to increase my stock allocation without thinking much. Now, I am in stock allocation reduction mode.  

A.  Added to CNQ-Bought 5 at $30


Quote: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

Closing Price 9/16/21: CNQ $34.59 -$0.40 -1.14% with ex dividend

CAD Quote: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (Canada: Toronto)

Website: Canadian Natural Resources

CNQ SEC Filings (foreign company filings)

Last DiscussedItem # 1.H. Started CNQ in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 5 at $32.9 (6/19/21) 

Purchase Restriction: Subsequent purchases will be small lots and each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $C.47 per share (C$1.88 annually), last raised from C$.425 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment.  

Last Ex Dividend: Yesterday, 9/16/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) SEC Filed Press Release  

all amounts in Canadian dollars; 

net earnings of $1.551B or $1.3 per diluted share; 

adjusted E.P.S. at $1.24; 

net debt reduced by approximately $1.7B during the 2nd quarter and by $3.1B YTD in 2021; 

"In Q2/21, reflecting the strength of our effective and efficient operations and our high quality, long life low decline asset base, Canadian Natural generated robust quarterly free cash flow of $1,535 million, after dividend payments of $557 million and net capital expenditures of $957 million, excluding acquisitions"; 

equivalent production BOE/d = 1,141,739; 

"Company owns approximately 6.4 million shares of Inter Pipeline Ltd. ("IPL"), which is currently subject to a third-party offer to purchase, with the current value of these shares being approximately $130 million to the Company, provided that all conditions of the third-party offer for IPL shares are satisfied."  

In USDs, Fidelity has the USD E.P.S. at $.99 vs. the consensus at US$.92. 

Canadian Utilities (CDUAF and CU:TO) Reports Higher Secon

B. Restarted BHB in Schwab Taxable-Bought 5 at $26.60; 5 at $25.55 

Recent History this Account: 

Quote:  Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)

Closing Price 9/16/21: BHB $26.11 -$0.17 -0.65% 

"The Bank provides full-banking services at 53 locations throughout Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, of which 33 are owned and 20 are leased." 

BHB SEC Filings

10-Q For the Q/E 6/30/21 

Bar Harbor Bankshares Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Consensus E.P.S. Estimate for 2022 = $2.79 


Investment Category:  Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Securities Available for Sale as of 6/30/21, page 19 10-Q:

2020 Annual Report 

5 Year Financials

Page 30 Annual Report

Page 31

The increase in the share count in 2017 was due to BHB's acquisition of Lake Sunapee Bank which I also owned. Bar Harbor Bankshares and Lake Sunapee Bank Group Complete Merger 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.D. Added to BHB-Bought 2 at $22.75; 5 at $21.5 (2/20/21 Post)Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.I. Pared BHB-Sold 10 at $28.5 and 5 at $30.5-highest cost lots in Fidelity Taxable Account (3/20/21 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share, last raised from $.22 effective for the 2021 second quarter. 

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off and will be turned on when and if the price sinks closer to $20. 

Yield at $26.08: 3.68%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/16/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) Reports Second Quarter Results; Declares Dividend

Core Earnings of $9.4M or $.63 per share; GAAP E.P.S. at $.60; 

8% annualized commercial loan growth excluding PPP; 

NIM = 2.74%, down from 2.93% in the 2020 second quarter; 

Efficiency ratio = 63.45%;  

Core ROA 1.01%; 

Core ROE = 9.13%; 

Core ROTE = 13.42%; 

Charge off ratio = .01%; 

NPL Ratio = .54%; 

NPA Ratio = .37%; 

Loan to deposit ratio = 89%; 

Tangible book value per share = $19.3 

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Pared BHB-Sold 40 at $24.48-highest cost lots in Fidelity taxable account (12/5/20 Post)Item # 3.B. Eliminated BHB-Sold 54+ Shares at $26.34 (5/18/19 Post)Item # 1.A. Sold 100 BHB at $30.69-Used Commission Free Trade (7/15/18 Post)Item # 1.A. Sold 50 BHB at $30.02 (5/21/18 Post)Item #3.A. Sold 100 BHB at $29.55 (4/26/18 Post);Item # 1. A. Sold 30 BHB at $29.42 (3/25/18 Post)Sold 100 BHB Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 5/6/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot =$936.96)

Largest Remaining Position-1 Account: 47 Shares Fidelity Taxable 

Price as of 9/10/21 Close, Average Cost per share = $19.49

Yield at $19.49 = 4.52%

Tangible book value per share = $19.3

BHB Realized Gains to Date $4,388.09 (snapshots at  Regional Bank Basket Strategy) My first purchase of this stock was in 2010. 

2018 BHB Realized Gains Fidelity Taxable: $3,078.46 (70.15% of the total, multiple trades): 

 

C. Bought 10 AMKBY at $14.25; 5 at $13.95


USD Quote: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR; Danish Krone: MAERSK.B (Denmark) 

Closing Price 9/16/21: AMKBY $15.78 -$0.14 -0.88% 

Discussed at High Freight Rates Have Been an Earnings Menace. Here’s How Long They Will Last. | Barron's Points out that AMKBY benefits from high freight rates as the largest shipping company in the world. Drewry - Service Expertise - World Container Index - 09 Sep

The company handles about 1 out of 5  containers shipped worldwide. 

The company operates in 130 countries and employs approximately 80,000 people. 

1 ADR = .005 ordinary

Calculation Based on Closing Price in Denmark on 9/9/21 of DKK19,360
DKK 19,360  x. 005 = DKK96.8
At DKK/USD of .16 = USD Priced ADR at $15.38 
Actual Close: $15.35


Maersk is a Danish shipping, logistics and supply chain management company. 

Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

I have one prior round-trip that I did not discuss: 

2020 AMKBY 50 shares + $24.49 

This company will be cyclical. The 2021 second quarter results are part of an ongoing up cycle. 


Last Ex Dividend: 3/24/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): 

IN USDs: 

Revenues: US$14.2B, up $5.2B

Free Cash Flow: US$3.2B

This kind of cash flow will fund more acquisitions. Two acquisitions were announced in August 2021.  A.P. Moller - Maersk to Acquire E-commerce Logistics Companies in Europe and the US – Visible Supply Chain Management and B2C Europe Holding B.V.  

Profit: US$3.713B

Underlying Profit = $3.732B

2021 Guidance: 


Sourced: 
2nd Quarter Highlights 

Interim Report  

D. Restarted TRST-Bought 5 at $32.50; 5 at $32.27; 5 at $31.25:




TRST is a savings and loan holding company that provides banking services through its wholly owned subsidiary Trustco Bank which had, as of 12/31/20, "148 banking offices in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Montgomery, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington, and Westchester counties of New York, Brevard, Charlotte, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida, Bennington County in Vermont, Berkshire County in Massachusetts and Bergen County in New Jersey." 

TRST SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report 

Trustco Bank - Corporate Profile

Investment Strategy: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Since my last transaction, TRST had a 1 for 5 reverse split

My last transaction was to eliminate my remaining shares. Item # 3.G. Eliminated TRST-Sold 15+ in Schwab Taxable at $7.45 and 40+ in Fidelity Taxable at $7.44 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $111) 

The $7.45 would be $37.25 adjusted for the 1 for 5 reverse split so the stock has declined  significantly since that sell,  until I repurchased the three 5 share lots.    

Average Cost per share this account $32.01  (15 shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.3406 ($1.36 annually rounded)

Yield at AC = 4.25%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/21 (owned 10 shares as of) 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S.  = $.749, up from $.584 in the 2020 second quarter

NIM at 2.66%, down from 2.69% in the 2020 second quarter 

Dividend Payout Ratio = 45.51%

TRST Trading Profits to Date$1,222.29 (snapshots at  Regional Bank Basket Strategy)

E. Added to BWG-Bought 10 at $12.45:


Quote: Brandywine GLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund Inc. Overview- A CEF

Closing Price 9/16/21: BWG 12.64 -$0.05 -0.39% 

BWG SEC Filings 

Legg Mason BW Global Income Opportunities Fund Inc. (BWG)-SEC Filed shareholder report for the period ending 4/30/21

Leverage: Leverage includes a Revolving Credit Agreement. As of 4/30/21, the fund had borrowed $60M and had paid a weighted average interest rate during the prior 12 months of .79%: 


And

Auction Preferred Stock: $60M

Fund Sponsor's WebsiteBrandywine Global Income Opportunities Fund Inc. - a Leveraged Bond CEF

Credit Quality Breakdown as of 6/30/21: 

Current Position: 20 shares with an AC of $12.51

Snapshot Intraday on 8/24/21 after add

Dividend: Monthly at $.08 per share ($.96 annually)

Yield at AC = 7.68%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/23/21

Data Date of 8/24/20 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.49

Closing Market Price: $12.47

Discount: -7.46%

Sourced: BWG CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)

F. Eliminated SPLK-Sold 1.723 at $152.2

Quote: Splunk Inc.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket

Profit Snapshot: +$52.79 (8/24/21 sale only)

Buy DiscussionsItem # 2.G. Multiple Small Dollar Buys in Splunk (5/23/21 Post); Item # 1.P. Bought 1 SPLK at $132.95 (4/9/21 Post)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 7/31/21): SEC Filed Loss Report As in prior reports, you have to scroll down deep into the report to see whether SPLK earned a profit which of course is never the case when you have to do that. 

GAAP  E.P.S. = ($2.34)  

GAAP Loss = $383.951M

Non-GAAP E.P.S = ($.62)

Consensus per Fidelity = ($.688)

The company wants investors to focus on these metrics: 

Outlook: Does not include guidance on either GAAP or Non-GAAP E.P.S. 

G. Added to GNL-Bought 3 at $17.12; 2 at $16.57 (Fidelity Account)


I am merely buying back some shares previously sold at higher prices (see links below). I would describe these transactions as a typical small ball trading pattern. 

Closing Price 9/16/21: GNL $16.58 -$0.06 -0.36% 

Quote: Global Net Lease Inc.- a REIT

"As of June 30, 2021, the Company owned 311 properties consisting of 38.2 million rentable square feet, which were 99.7% leased, with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 8.5 years. Based on the percentage of annualized rental income on a straight-line basis as of June 30, 2021, 60% of the Company’s properties are located in the U.S. and Canada and 40% in Europe. In addition, the Company’s portfolio was comprised of 52% industrial/distribution properties, 43% office properties and 5% retail properties. These percentages are calculated using annualized straight-line rent converted from local currency into the U.S. Dollar (“USD”) as of June 30, 2021. The straight-line rent includes amounts for tenant concessions."

GNL SEC Filings

2020 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 

GNL Website: Overview | GNL

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Management: External

Last Buy Discussions:  Item # 1.I. Added to GNL-Bought 5 at $16.9 (1/23/21 Post);  Item # 1.E. Bought 1 GNL at $13.19 and 1 at $12.61 (5/23/20 Post);  Item # 4.A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87, 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14; 10 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at $11; 1 at 10.1; 4 at $11.48 and 2 at $10.8  (4/4/20 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.E  Sold Highest Cost 10+ Shares in Fidelity Account at $19.91 (6/25/21 Post)Item # 1.J. Pared GNL in Fidelity Taxable- Sold 20 GNL at $19.49 (5/16/21 Post)

New average Cost per share this account: $14.34 (102+ shares)

Snapshot as of close on 9/10/21 after 2nd Add

These purchase increased my AC from $14.21 per share. 

I own GNL in several of my accounts, including 2 Roth IRA accounts. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share

Global Net Lease  (GNL) Dividend History | Nasdaq

I turned dividend reinvestment back on due to the price decline. 

Yield at $14.34 AC = 11.16%

Last Ex-Dividend: 7/9/21

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filing 

AFFO per share = $.44, unchanged from the 2020 second quarter

Portfolio 99.7% leased with 8.5 years of weighted average remaining lease term 

Contractual rent increases embedded in 94.0% of leases

GNL "collected 100% of the original cash rent from U.K. based assets, 100% from European tenants and 100% of tenants located in the U.S. and Canada. Cash rent collected includes both contractual rents and deferred rents paid during the period."


I also own a GNL preferred stock, though I sold most of my shares in August 2020 which proved to be in hindsight a mistake. Item #2.A. Eliminated GNLPRB in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at $24.93; 5 at $24.92 (8/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $63.54; contains snapshot of 25 share current position in Fidelity taxable with an average cost per share of $15, creating a dividend yield at that AC number of 11.46%);  Global Net Lease Inc. 6.875% Preferred Series B Stock Quote  

Based on the stock price movements and current dividend yield, investors capable of moving the stock up or down have a low opinion of this company. Possibly that is due to the external managers. 

As previously discussed, GNL reduced it quarterly dividend from $.533 per share to the current $.40 per share effective for the 2020 second quarter. The prior penny rate was, as I recall, never supported by cash available for distribution. It was IMO an unsustainable teaser dividend rate for the Mom and Pop investors initiated when this company first went public. 

H. Pared VTV - Sold 1 at $142.31

Quote: Vanguard Value ETF Overview

Closing Price 9/16/21: VTV $138.97 -$0.59 -0.42% 

Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Quote | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)

Sponsor's website: VTV - Vanguard Value ETF

Expense Ratio = .04%

Number of Stocks as of 7/31/21: 351

Some Top Holdings as of 7/31/21

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 4.M. Started VTV-Bought 10 shares in 1 share lots (8/29/20 Post)(average cost per share then at $102.89) 

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.B. Sold 1.228 VTV Shares at $141.94 (5/28/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.07);Item # 1.H. Pared VTV in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 1 at $117.26 and 1 at $122.12 (1/23/21 Post)(profit snapshots= $28.21). I have been selling my highest cost lots.  

Profit Snapshot: +$35.96 (8/25/21 sale only)


Average Cost per share after pare this account: $100.88 (6 Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 8/25/21 after pare

The AC was reduced from $101.66.  

Dividends: Quarterly and variable 

Dividend reinvestment has been turned off.

I. Added to ORKLY-Bought 5 at $8.8


Quote: ORKLY

Closing Price 9/16/21: ORKLY $8.96 -$0.10 -1.10% 

Investor Relations

I discussed the second quarter report in a recent post and nothing to add here. Item # 2 K. Restarted ORKLY in Schwab Taxable-Bought 20 at $9.01 (8/6/21 Post) 

J. Eliminated LRGF in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 5 at $44.66


Quote: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor USA ETF Overview

Closing Price 9/16/21: LRGF $44.12 -$0.02 -0.05% 

Sponsor's website: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor USA ETF | LRGF

Expense Ratio: .2%

Profit Snapshot: +$67.47 


Last DiscussedItem # 1.H. Restarted LRGF-Bought 5 at $31.19 (7/3/2020 Post)Item # 3.B. Sold 15 at $32.47(11/6/19 Post)

K. Added to GLD-Bought 1 at $167.78


Quote: GLD | SPDR Gold Shares Overview

Gold took a hit yesterday: GLD $164.03 -$3.80 -2.26% 

Sponsor's Website: Get the Performance of Gold with GLD

This fund owns gold bullion. 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 2.E. Bought 1 GLD at (4/24/21 Post) 

As previously discussed, I play the long secular precious metals trends with actual bullion ownership. The last gold and silver coin sales occurred in September 2011 and January 2012. Item # 8 (1/31/12 Post)Item # 1 (9/15/11 Post) 

The last gold and silver coin purchases were made when gold was in the $300 - $400 per ounce range and silver was trading under $7 per ounce. 

The ETFs are simply viewed as trading vehicles.  

L. Eliminated VEU: Sold 1 VEU  at $63.29 and 5 at $63.57


Quote: Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF Overview

Closing Price 9/16/21: VEU $63.68 -$0.34 -0.53% 

Sponsor's Website: VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF

Expense Ratio = .08%

Holdings as of 7/31/21: 3,525 stocks 

In other words, a quick and inexpensive way to gain access to a broad index of non-U.S. stocks

Profit Snapshots: +$84.71


Last DiscussedItem #1.K. Bought 4 VEU at $49.41 (8/1/2020 Post) 

Last EliminationsItem # 2.C. Eliminated VEU-Sold 17+ at $52.52 (12/14/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.71)

Eliminated VEU at $50.39 (4/15/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.73); 


Other Eliminations: +$1,614.39, snapshots in Item # 2 


VEU Realized Gains to Date: $1,785.54 

M. Issuer Redemption of 3% First Mortgage Bond at Maturity

This 3% bond was originally issued by Carolina Power & Light that was later acquired by Progress Energy based in Florida. Progress was then acquired by Duke Energy. Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Carolina Power & Light d/b/a Progress Energy Carolinas 3% First Mortgage Bond at a TC of 99.691 (5/28/21 Post) 

I own a number of first mortgage bonds issued by wholly owned operating subsidiaries of utility holding companies. This is just a reminder for conservative income investors that these securities are available for purchase. Most of them are $1K par value bonds but there are several $25 par value exchange traded first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries.  

Two of those $25 par value bonds can be called at par value now. Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066  (ELC)Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066  (EAI) 

While I have not seen a redemption notice yet, the prices are currently hugging the $25 par value indicating a consensus opinion that both will soon be called. 

2. Lexington Realty Early Bond Redemption Subject to Make Whole

I owned 2 Lexington Reality 4.25% senior unsecured bonds that would have matured on 6/15/23. The issuer made a make whole payment of $129.17 to exercise its optional redemption right in addition to the accrued and unpaid interest and the $2,000 in principal amount: 


The annual interest payment for 2 bonds was $85 paid semi-annual installments. 

So the penalty attached to the early redemption was slightly more than 1 1/2 years of interest paid in advance.   

I had bought these 2 bonds at a total cost of 99.45. Item # 3.A. (6/7/2018 Post) 

Profit Snapshot:  $140.17

LXP was willing to pay the penalty after successfully selling $400M in 2.375% senior unsecured bond maturing in 2031. Prospectus This is a common phenomenon now. The issuer pays the make whole payment, extends the maturity (almost 8 years in this example) and lowers the coupon (4.25% to 2.375% here).  

The common stock closed yesterday at $13.35, which would produce a 3.17% dividend yield at that price. Lexington Realty Trust (LXP). While I have bought and sold the common shares many times, I do not have a position now and have no interest in acquiring one at that price. 

I am no longer bothering to see what bonds can be bought with the proceeds from those that have matured or redeemed early by the issuers. The yields are not worth the effort, nor do they provide adequate after tax compensation for credit and interest rate risks. The primary interest rate risk, as I see it, is the risk of lost opportunity which occurs when funds are tied up in a very low yielding bond when rates are in a persistent uptrend.  

3. Early Bond Redemption by Select Income REIT

I owned two Select Income REIT 4.15% SU bonds that would have matured on 2/1/22. Select Income REIT no longer exists, and its bonds are now obligations of Office Properties Income Trust (OPI).

 The redemption was subject to a make whole payment of $12.49: 


Profit: $51.95


Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.15% SU Maturing on 2/1/22 at a Total Cost of  98.027 (5/30/20 Post)

As noted in previous posts, I dislike Office Properties REIT (OPI) with significant fervor. Yet, I currently own 10 common shares and 6 other OPI SU bonds. 

Snapshots as of close Using Third Party Pricing rather than actual closing trade: 

Item # 2.A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4% SU Maturing on 7/15/22 at a Total Cost of 98.609 (6/20/20 Post)

 

Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of  94.149 (5/23/20 Post):

FINRA Bond Detail

Item # 1.A. Bought 2 Select Income REIT 4.25% SU Maturing on 5/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.491 (6/14/17 Post)

Fidelity Third Party Price at 106.99

Item # 2.D. Restarted OPI-Bought 5 at $20.25; 2 at $18.95; 3 at $17.9 (11/13/20 Post)

AC at $19.29/Annual Dividend = $2.2 per share/Yield at AC = 11.4%

OPI redeemed at par value its $25 exchange traded bond earlier this year. Item # 3.B. Bought 10 OPINI at $18.45; 2 at $15.6 3 at $14.38 (3/21/2020 Post)

Previous OPI Bond TransactionsItem # 2.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25 at 102.452 (9/4/2019 Post)(profit = $83.99); Item # 3.A. Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Bonds (9/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $67.06) and Sold 2 Select Income REIT 4.5% SU Maturing on 2/1/25: 

2016 Select Income (2) +$46.12

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.

29 comments:

  1. Inflation without rates worries me. The market can go down - it'll come back up again. But my survival / portfolio will be damaged by inflation it can't keep up with.

    Long talk with my sister. I am in a reasonable position for retirement. Not there yet but have enough horizon and funds to get there without Trump-like delusional expectations.

    However, her and husband have been working hard since school. With cost of kids and life... they have some retirement funds. But not nearly enough. They'd have to count on, in last five years before retirement when the kids are out of college, to save enough. He's got a good salary but it will be tight. Currently wants to move jobs (change of bosses was not good) and isn't getting any bites (in the past he's gotten a lot when he did a move jobs.)

    My sister with masters and 20+ solid years of skilled work qualifying for pension from the state, is making $18/hour part time. Up from the starting $13. There aren't other options. She's looked for full and parttime positions. She's gotten recognized for quality at her job. It's not her.

    So in this case, and I assume others, the economy's low unemployment isn't reflecting the reality. Jobs aren't paying. Also across the board, jobs are so high pressure you can't have a life, and properly take care of kids, and work.

    So now I feel like it'd be helpful to get my portfolio to grow, so I can be backup for them.

    My dad's set. But with how much old age can cost, we're not assuming anything to pass down.

    +++

    ""Since I am pro-democracy, I have become a one issue voter. ""

    Chuckle

    Yep

    +++

    Google took the time to show me this Cramer article in my feed in the middle of the night (when I should have been sleeping.)

    Cramer isn't buying right now either. But says he's not selling. He's not sure what's scenarios will play out so being cautious. That's new for him?

    He had a few timings (that are probably standard concepts.) One, that Sept difficulties tend to end 2nd week of Oct.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/jim-cramer-says-he-sees-few-reasons-to-buy-stocks-right-now.html

    "As for when it may finally be time to buy, Cramer said he’ll be looking for moments when a stock does not decline on bad news and still does not fall the next day when that same bad news is highlighted by equity analysts.

    “That does tell you the pain is over,” he said. However, we may have to wait until the second week of October, when the period of maximum seasonal pain ... is done,” Cramer added. “Finally, let’s just say, we need stocks to stop suffering big declines on nothing.”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I suspect that most families with children who go to college, with no meaningful scholarship money, are not able to save much for retirement until those financial obligations are satisfied.

      That predicament will substantially elevate what I call "situational risks". There just is not enough time to build up an adequate investment portfolio and that problem could be made worse by (1) interest rates remaining far below the inflation rate and (2) the start of a long term secular bear market in stocks where the total annual average real return in the S & P 500 is a negative number. That inflation adjusted total return number was -1.813% per year starting on 1/1/66 and ending 7/31/1982 as an example.

      https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

      If I had anywhere to go other than stocks, I would own less stocks now.

      There is an uptick in interest rates today so far; which is helping my regional bank stocks buck the downtrend:

      U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
      1.376 + 0.041%
      Last Updated: Sep 17, 2021 at 11:44 a.m. EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

      SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
      $64.12 +$0.33 +0.52%
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=over_search

      The VIX remains in what I call an Unstable Vix Pattern:

      CBOE Volatility Index
      20.36 +1.67 +8.94%
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix?mod=over_search

      Delete
    2. Hum, situational risks could really make a problem for both of us (sister family and I).

      During that time 66-82, there were other sources of investment for SOME of those years, such as bank interest and real estate owning rentals?

      Because he works for the college network in a professional job, 1/2 their tuition is paid for at most USA colleges. Also they both received funding or scholarships. So this is even with that substantial help.

      Delete
    3. Land: Interest rates were high throughout the 1966 through May 2000, never falling below 4% for the 10 year treasury:

      https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

      However, there were times during that period when inflation was running so hot that the real return was negative before taxes. Tax rates were higher as well. In 1981, as I recall, the maximum tax rate on earned income was 50%, Maryland/Montgomery County took 7.5%, and the marginal tax rate on non-earned income topped out at 70% for a single filer for income in excess of $108K:

      https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/

      So the relevant number is inflation adjusted interest income after federal and state taxes.

      Delete
  2. VIX is not very high for all the down days.

    It's also running lower highs. Chart-wise without considering the economic factors, it looks like the market will rally hard again.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I missed the last meeting of "pro-choice Jewish Satan worshippers." Apparently the email notices went out late. (There's whispers that satan grabbed them.)

    I missed that whole story. There needs to be a DSM code for "believing insane conspiracy theories and considering killing people for them."

    ReplyDelete
  4. There was unusual upside activity in 3 of my small ball positions yesterday. I could find news only on 1 of them-(BRG).

    Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG)
    $12.65 +$1.33 (+11.75%)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRG?p=BRG&.tsrc=fin-srch

    I am down to just 20+ shares with an average cost per share of $4.64.

    The move is in response to a Bloomberg story, published last Thursday before the market closed, that BRG was considering strategic options.

    BRG closed last Wednesday at $10.85.


    BRG Realized Gains to Date: $1,151.81
    Snapshots at
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2014/10/gateway-post-equity-reit-common-and.html
    ++

    Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND)
    $144.73 +$9.74 (+7.22%)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LGND/history?p=LGND

    I have small ball positions in 2 taxable accounts and have discussed purchased in 1 of them. I own about 4 shares with several fractional share purchases in one account and two 1 share purchases discussed here.

    I could not find any news but this small cap stock does not need a reason to bounce up and down since it is a bungee jumper.

    Market Cap at $144.73 = $2.414B

    ++

    Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS)
    $36.39 +$3.36 (+10.17%)
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCUS?p=RCUS&.tsrc=fin-srch

    I have discussed purchases only in comments, noting in part that RCUS is a potential acquisition candidate for GILD.

    see, e.g.
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/08/bk-ebgef-ebix-fmat-ida-igr-is-lgnd-mj.html?showComment=1630514946998#c5005713254362502529

    I did not see any news to account for this price surge.

    Market Cap = $2.598B

    ReplyDelete
  5. Those are going well. Good picks.

    I've been eyeing Crisp. It's moved down as the market has.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: CRSP rose $7.1 last Friday to close at $124.52.
      Starting in June 2021, the stock has not stayed under $120 for long.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSP/history?p=CRSP

      My last buy was at slightly less than $100 and I may be up to around 7 shares altogether including 1 in a Roth IRA account.

      While I believe that gene editing will be the future of medicine, at least for multiple disease categories, I do not have the knowledge to even make an educated guess on which company will be the most successful.

      CRSP has had success in the CTX001 trials so far.

      However, if I wake up one morning to see a news story that the ongoing CTX001 trial had to be stopped for safety concerns, always a concern when editing genes, then the stock will crater big time.

      One patient suffered 4 serious adverse events when treated with CTX000 for beta thalassemia which were resolved. No serious adverse events were reported in Sickle Cell treatment group.


      https://investors.vrtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vertex-and-crispr-therapeutics-present-new-data-22-patients

      Delete
    2. I was looking on Thursday and I guess I missed Friday's increase. I was hoping for an eventual under 100 again...


      No hurries right now - with the market as it is.

      Delete
  6. A week or so ago, I had not know anything about the Chinese property developer Evergrande. I started to read news stories that it was in trouble and would likely default on around $300B in debt. This one was published earlier today.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/evergrande-debt-collapse-could-have-domino-effect-on-china-properties.html

    Commodities will take a hit since China's property development activities have been a major consumer of base metals (steel/iron ore, copper). Oil will take a hit on renewed growth concerns.

    For some reason that is hard to fathom, investors have managed to convince themselves that adding $80T or so in new debt worldwide since 2007, which has been the major source of world GDP growth, was the cure for the Near Depression in 2008 caused by too much debt.


    Eventually, there will be another financial crisis created by forced deleveraging and massive debt defaults that will have far ranging economic consequences.

    It is not a question of whether this will happen again, with far more serious repercussions than the last debt bomb explosion, but when.

    And, incurring substantially more debt to solve the next financial crisis caused by too much debt is not likely to be an option.

    E-Mini Dow Continuous Contract
    33,822 -640 -1.86%
    Last Updated: Sep 20, 2021 at 7:02 a.m. CDT

    Some of the other problems brewing underneath the surface may add to turmoil in the coming weeks, including a U.S. debt default caused by a failure to raise the debt limit, an acceleration in the pandemic, and persistently high inflation.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Just signed up for HMBradley bank account that pays 3% if you use good spending habits. It's for my rainyday $. I submitted, but won't know if approved for 2-3 days.

    It's by invite only so posted on reddit until I got an invite.

    High rated. But I need to dig more before fully going for it.

    One catch is that it's hard I think to get the $ out quickly for quick market buy ins.

    And 3% is still a loss compared to the market's climbing, and current inflation. Still need to by that i-bond or whatever it's called.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: HMBradley is a relatively new company. I don't see how it can afford to pay out 3%.
      https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/hmbradley-checking-savings-account-review

      I will be doing some scatter shot small ball buying today focusing on dividend paying stocks. My cash allocation is around 60%. I will not be selling more small ball stock ETF positions into a stock downtrend.

      I would guess that the Stock Jocks will come around to compartmentalizing the Evergrande's default as a China specific problem whose blowback outside of China will largely be limited to commodity prices, though it may take a few days for them to reach that point. Evergrande's pending collapse is just an example of widespread rot in debt financed growth.

      Gold is benefiting some. High quality bonds are doing well as interest rates decline. Utility and consumer staple stocks are at holding up with many stocks in those sectors in the green. REITs are mixed.

      Delete
    2. It's owned by Hatch Bank which has 4stars at Bauer's and it has A at Bankrate, except for C on capitalization. I couldnt' follow the explanation of what capitalization means.

      It's 3% on up to 100k. So another 2500 in a year. Not bad for rainyday $. Have to direct deposit, and not withdraw more than 80% of it. (Leave 20% in account.)

      Easier than my high yields where I have to do 10 debit card charges a month.

      Can make a lot more in the market if time it right - but timing isn't always so easy!

      ++++

      I hadn't sold in the market, so I missed opportunity to lock in some gains. Frustrating. But it's been hard to focus on anything, while taking care of.

      It's not below 200 day so FG would not ring bells for a crash yet.

      I expect the place to buy is when it's 1/2 way between 200 day and 50 day. Which is a little below here. For a bounce only. Since there's plenty of chance for a deeper pullback here.

      LMT down 1.35%, Garmin down 1%. Verizon down .4% so acting like a utillity. Many of the rest of my stocks are down in the 3%s.

      Delete
    3. "vergrande's pending collapse is just an example of widespread rot in debt financed growth. "

      Maybe that's the start of where the rot is that will take down the market in the next crash. When things get "weird" and overvalued, so far every time, there's been rot or excessive greed on specific areas that then pulled the whole market in (2000, 2008)...

      Delete
    4. This is a clue to what they're doing. Sharing $ with the banking network.

      https://faq.hmbradley.com/hc/en-us/articles/4404943044500-What-if-I-have-more-than-the-FDIC-insurance-limit-in-any-one-of-the-Network-Banks-

      Delete
    5. Land: It does not compute with me, which is all that I can say about it. The prime rate is 3.25%. The company has to have expenses, and loans made with bank deposits do go bad. There is one office located in San Marcos, CA. What I don't know is how much the bank can make by sweeping deposits to another financial institution.

      Bank capital is generally defined as the difference between bank assets and liabilities.

      I was able to generate a FDIC report dated 6/30/21. The bank has 6 employees.

      This link may work.

      https://banks.data.fdic.gov/bankfind-suite/bankfind/details/25803?activeStatus=0%20OR%201&bankfindLevelThreeView=Locations&branchOffices=true&name=Hatch%20Bank&pageNumber=1&resultLimit=25

      Click "create financial report". Asset have grown a lot over the past year.

      Delete
    6. That link worked. Wow, you were able to find info. The question that needs answering is what are they doing to pay 3% interest. It's not standard operations, so how risky is it?

      It is FDIC insured, but who wants to deal with that.

      Assets grew because of this offering since mid-last year. It's set up that you have to leave 80% in the account to get that rate, so they're counting on stability in what funds come in.




      Delete
    7. Land: You can find basic financial information for non-publicly traded banks at the FDIC website:

      https://banks.data.fdic.gov/bankfind-suite/bankfind

      The invitation only gimmick sounds a bit like Bernie Madoff. I am not saying the two are the same, but only that Bernie popped into my mind when I read the invitation only requirement to get that 3%.

      Delete
    8. Good - I found bauer but haven't found moody's or s&p's rating yet. I used to have a folder of bank rating sites, that made it easy.

      It wasn't by invite originally. But it was popular, and they limited new members to those who signed up by a referral code. I don't know the person I got it from. His id had a turtle in the name.

      I do need to figure out how they're paying the interest. By when I'm approved in 3-5 days - takes a few days to process applications.

      Does FDIC have requirement in order to cover accounts?

      Delete
  8. In early morning trading, it looked like the Stock Jocks were going to compartmentalize the debt bomb known as Evergrande as China's problem, but there are just too many other issues out there for the early morning rally to hold.

    I view Evergrande as primarily a Chinese problem with potential blowbacks on commodity prices, but nonetheless emblematic of what happens when growth is fueled by debt that will ultimately become unserviceable. It did not take much of a downturn in China's residential real estate market to show that this firm was insolvent. It is a ponzi scheme like so many others now. More debt is acquired to pay off maturing debt and to pay interest on existing debt obligations until the gig is recognized by all as up. In this case, $313B or so in debt was apparently the brick wall. I don't think the Chinese government should bail out the company which is equivalent to rewarding irresponsible behavior, both by management and its lenders.

    Since I view both U.S. political tribes as fiscally irresponsible, just expressing their irresponsible actions in different ways, it is not surprising that the government is facing yet another debt default caused by political posturing on raising the debt limit. There was a period where oddly enough Democrats were more fiscally responsible than Republicans but both are equally irresponsible now or close enough that I would not bother arguing the differences.

    I used the rally early today to offload a few more stock ETFs. I did some small ball buying in dividend stocks.

    At the close last Friday, the S & P 500 dividend yield was only 1.32%.

    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields?mod=md_usstk_view_pe_yield_full

    The Shiller P/E ratio is almost at 38.

    https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

    The U.S. death rate from Covid has risen back above 2000 per day.

    ++

    "Incyte Announces U.S. FDA Approval of Opzelura™ (ruxolitinib) Cream, a Topical JAK Inhibitor, for the Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis (AD)"

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210921006072/en/

    The was in doubt due to recent safety concerns about JAK inhibitors. The FDA had previously postponed it decision date by 3 months to more fully evaluate the safety issues.

    The stock is reacting negatively in after hours trading:

    Incyte Corp. (INCY)
    $72.40 -$3.66 -4.81%
    After Hours Volume: 198.03K
    Last Updated: Sep 21, 2021 at 6:09 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/incy?mod=over_search

    The approval is limited to "short-term and non-continuous chronic treatment of mild to moderate atopic dermatitis (AD) in non-immunocompromised patients 12 years of age and older whose disease is not adequately controlled with topical prescription therapies, or when those therapies are not advisable." Maybe the negative reaction has to do with the warnings and the limited use application. I was not expecting the drug to be approved so even this approval is still viewed as a positive from my perspective.

    ++

    Land: The Hatch Bank would not have a Moody's or S & P credit report since it has not issued bonds. Even if it had, it would have to pay a ratings agency to rate the offering.

    This site has some useful information:

    https://www.bestcashcow.com/banks/hatch-bank-25803#financial_details

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hadn't realized bonds were when they gave credit ratings. Good to know.

      I asked on a forum why people thought the bank could afford to pay 3%. Got some good answers. While they're comfortable, to me even for raising investor funds, it's a bit of a ponzi scheme. One legit reason is they don't offer 1/2 the services that regular banks do. So their overhead is very low. That adds up.

      Turns out FDIC aims to pay insured within 2 days of a closure. So I'd give it a few weeks in real world.
      https://www.fdic.gov/consumers/banking/facts/payment.html

      With that backing, I'm going to give it a chance. But if they start reducing rates to where people may start withdrawing it will be time to beat the crowd.

      I'm approved - and started a direct deposit of less than $40 which is required to earn the top 3% rate.

      Here's the posts on a reddit entry for this bank. I don't know if you can see them from the link. ..Nor how much you'd be interested. But in case.
      https://www.reddit.com/r/HMBradley/comments/psiq7t/how_can_hmb_afford_to_pay_3_any_ideas/

      ++++

      3% is a serious loss. But currently have too much rainy day money earning .5 or even nothing. And I won't put that money into the market unless there's a serious crash and indicators it's ending. It's rainyday savings.

      Missed getting out. If there's a rally I will. But I still have plenty to put in on the way down. Haven't bought yet, probably should have.

      +++++

      I haven't watched news for over a month or tried to read much. So, missed the Evergrande happenings. Sounds like they're a worry for the market.

      In real world sounds like they should be a worry of an unstable underneath to China's economy (which isn't totally isolated from the world) ... and the market will shake it off.

      Crud is starting to show up. It's one of the indicators that shows before crashes. At least that's my observation.

      The wrangling over spending is also adding to the stir.

      ++++

      I came across these masks. They look very good. I haven't actually read up on them solidly to be sure the virus killing works. (Not time to yet.) But ordered them for my dad for his plane flight. Convincing him is harder. Especially with FOX whispering "be normal, demask." But at least he knows it's a real and serious virus.

      Bunch of articles such as Newsweek are very positive on them. Others too.


      https://wellbefore.com/products/respokare-n95-respirator-surgical-mask-fda-niosh-approved?variant=32902321307777

      This seller is on the respokare site as an authorized reseller.

      https://www.newsweek.com/amplify/respokare-n95-mask-kill-covid

      Delete
    2. Land: The Respocare mask sold by wellbefore.com, an authorized reseller, looks like a good one. There are a lot of N95 masks available for purchase now and I have bought a few while I can, just in case Covid evolves into something more deadly. For now, I am sticking with surgical masks and three layer cloth masks.

      As to stocks, there is no where else to go. I would be satisfied by a risk free annual return of 4%, but that happens only in my dreams.

      My strategy now is simply to generate more income, using a variety of risk mitigation measures, through a combination of trading and a focus on stocks having dividend yields over 3%.

      For example, I bought yesterday another 5 shares of VZ, which is not a stock that I like but where I at least have a decent chance of generating a total return in excess of the dividend yield.

      Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
      $54.24 +0.21 +0.39%
      YIELD 4.72%
      EX-DIVIDEND Oct 7, 2021
      Last Updated: Sep 22, 2021 at 10:32 a.m. EDT

      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vz?mod=over_search

      The purchases are still small ball, though that may change for a few stocks.

      Delete
    3. I still have my VZ, 30 shares. It hasn't done much,, up .17%, but at least it's paid a div.

      I've been surprised that div stocks have been ignored, when bonds went so low.

      ++++

      The Respocare also have a surgical mask variation that I ordered from Walmart. I prefer the N95s in general. The fold gives me more room to breath. But my dad likes the surgical masks in general.

      For the 5-6 hour plane trip and airport time, I'm hoping he'll wear the N95 that has a slight edge to the surgicals by themselves. (No way he'd add cloth to bring their protection up.)

      ++++

      Market's shaking off whatever was worrying it. I'm going to look for when to do some selling when it's back up. Though wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't recover before it continues down.

      One problem is keeping my sales under 20kish profit total because I need to keep income down to qualify for patient assistance for 100k/mo drugs. Part of my hesitation to sell was that I need to do calculations first. But I can sell in the 401k and Roth...

      ++++

      Have discovered, as joint on account it's not a gift until joint person does the withdrawal. Still need to be careful not to accidentally withdraw under your name.


      Delete
    4. Land: I do not expect VZ to provide much in the way of capital appreciation. The goal is simply to harvest the dividend and sell a few shares profitably into price pops and then buy them back at below my average cost per share number. A partial sell trigger for me would be at $58+.

      I have not done much research of when a gift is triggered after an elderly parent creates a joint ownership account with a child.

      This article is useful, assuming no law change since it was published in 2009 which I have not attempted to research:

      https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2009/feb/creatingjointownership.html

      That article does say that the gift occurs only when the child withdraws money for their personal use. That rule does make sense as a practical matter.

      As I mentioned earlier, I used signature authority on my mother's checking account, rather than joint ownership, to pay her bills.

      ++

      General Mills reported better than expected earnings this morning.

      General Mills Inc.
      $60.46 $2.44 +4.21%
      Last Updated: Sep 22, 2021 at 11:49 a.m.
      EDT
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis?mod=over_search

      Yesterday, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight and reduced its price target to $51 from $57, which makes no sense to me. I do not have access to the report.

      Delete
    5. Good for GMills. Goes to show, pundits are not always right. I ignore them most of the time.

      Delete
  9. There was a significant percentage increase in interest rates today. The ten year treasury yield increased to 1.41%, up 9 basis points from yesterday during regular trading hours as reported by the Treasury Department:

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

    The yield is moving higher in late afternoon trading and is currently at 1.435% yield.

    That kind of action is generally sufficient to cause regional bank stocks to outperform the S & P 500, even though that increase will have no meaningful impact on bank earnings.

    The hoped for trend is that deposit costs will remain close to zero and bank loan yields will rise over time, creating an expansion in bank net interest margins, a key component in earnings growth.

    S&P 500 Index 4,448.98 +53.34 +1.21%


    SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
    $65.23 +$2.39 +3.80%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=over_search

    After Hours for KRE:
    65.55 +$0.32 +0.49%
    Last Updated: Sep 23, 2021 6:31 p.m. EDT

    Utility stocks struggled as their dividend yields are low and P/E ratios are historically high for such slow growers. I have been selling into their recent strength.

    Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (FUTY)
    42.04-0.13 (-0.31%)


    I have been adding to INCY in 1 share lots after it decline in response to the FDA approving its JAK inhibitor cream for atopic dermatitis with a black box label, as everyone had to expect given the recent FDA actions regarding all JAK inhibitors. INCY has declined 8.26% since last Tuesday's close at $76.06.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INCY/history?p=INCY


    I am glad that I have been buying in 1 share lots rather than 100 since I would not be an an ouch level buying in 100 share lots.

    Most brokers responded by decreasing their price targets some, except for Goldman Sachs who increased its PT to $134 from $130 and maintained its buy rating.

    The FDA also approved this week another treatment indication for INCY's blockbuster drug the Jakafi:

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210922005863/en/

    For the first 6 months, that drug produced revenues of $994.765M:

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000155837021009865/incy-20210803xex99d1.htm

    Today was mostly Lotto buys for me. I will mention one here, a German Biotech called
    MorphoSys AG

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mor?mod=over_search

    MOR trades as an ADR in the U.S. and has a partnership with INCY on ones of its FDA and EU approved drugs called Minjuvi, used in combination with Lenalidomide for adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-Cell lymphoma. That drug has not yet gotten off the ground very far. The EU approval came in August 2021. The FDA approved in August 2020.

    https://investor.incyte.com/press-releases/press-releases/2021/Incyte-and-MorphoSys-Announce-the-European-Commission-Approval-of-Minjuvi-tafasitamab-in-Combination-With-Lenalidomide-for-the-Treatment-of-Adults-With-Relapsed-or-Refractory-Diffuse-Large-B-Cell-Lymphoma/default.aspx



    I bought 10 shares at $12.38. The 52 week high is $32.02 with the low at $11.76.

    The stock reacted badly back in the summer when the company announced it was acquiring a company with 2 cancer drugs currently in either a Phase 2 or Phase 3 trial.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1340243/000119312521192620/d149133dex991.htm

    Sort of bet the farm kind of deal. To finance the purchase price, MOR sold all or part of its royalties from several compounds, including 1 that is currently marketed by JNJ and others in late stage trials by major drug companies.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1340243/000119312521179498/d104887dex991.htm

    So, like just about everything else, place your bets and take your chances.

    Ordinary shares priced in €:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mor?countrycode=xe&mod=over_search

    4 ADRs = 1 ordinary

    Market Cap about €1.43B

    ReplyDelete
  10. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/09/cara-cube-etsy-fitb-gnl-hr-ohi-pay-psec.html

    ReplyDelete