Saturday, October 11, 2025

BHK, CHCT, CVE, GLQ, GOOD, KBWY, KIM, MAA, MDT, NEWT, NEWTI, TY, UDR, UMH

Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post: 

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: No trades. I am in a holding pattern. 

Inflow common stocks/stock funds: $1,972.42

Outflow common stocks/stock funds: $1,629.72

Realized Gains Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $202.02

Net Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $342.7

Inflow Exchange Traded Bonds: $124.75

Outflow Leverage Bond CEF: $201.4 (profit of $10.4)

Treasury Yield Curve October 2025: 

FedWatch Tool - CME Group As of yesterday's close, the odds that the federal funds range will be .5% lower (3.5%-3.75%) than the current range of 4% to 4.25% after the FED's meeting in December 2025 was at 91.7%. That probability would be consistent with the current 6 month T Bill investment rate and a small probability of another .25% cut in the 2026 first quarter. The 6 month T Bill IR yield would not be consistent with a 44.7% CME probability of another .25% rate cut in January to 3.25%-3.5% or a 60.8% probability of a .25% cut on or before the March 2026 meeting. The odds are not that high in the current 6 month T Bill IR. 

Ray Dalio says today is like the early 1970s and investors should hold more gold than usual

I had a higher than normal inflow of T Bill proceeds into my Schwab account last week. About 1/2 of that amount, or $20K, will be used to buy the 6 month treasury bill at next Tuesday's auction. Monday is a federal holiday. 

One overlooked result caused by Fed rate cuts is less disposable income available to spend, save an/or reduce higher cost debt among savers. I noted a claim made by a former FED governor William Ford, made in 2012, that Q/E and ZIRP have significant downside impacts. Quantitative Easing Helps the Big Wheels and Hurts Everyone Else - The Big Picture It is an obvious point. 

When the problems in the U.S. economy are caused by Trump's policies, as now, and he is not going to change them, nor will he be forced to change them by the republicans in Congress even when they result in a recession, lowering interest rates will not have the traditional positive impact on economic activity, but only a minimal net positive impact and will not avert a recession or cause the economy to exist from one. Trump will simply blame others for the damage that he caused. When the result is unfavorable, the buck never stops at Trump's desk - never has and never will. "The Buck Stops Here" Desk sign | Harry S. Truman

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Traditional Valuation Indicators: The stock market is clearly overvalued using them. 

Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (10/1/25)

The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends 

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio | Longtermtrends

Stock Market P/E Ratios - Yardeni Research (Figures 6,7, 13, 15 & 17) 

Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: June 2025 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: June 2025 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio (P/S Ratio) 

S&P 500 Dividend Yield - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

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Fidelity Account Asset Allocation

I have 4 taxable brokerage accounts. I will frequently provide asset allocation information in my Fidelity account. 

This account was down .04% last Friday. 

With accurate pricing of my bonds, which never happens since brokers use third party services to price the values of bonds, I would probably have been at breakeven. 

The major gainers were my longer term Tennessee municipal bonds. 

I would have been up if I had kept the corporate bonds maturing in 2032 or later that were sold in this account starting in mid-July 2025. 

Fidelity's bond category includes T Bills, T Notes, CDs, corporate and municipal bonds. 

The short term category is a money market fund that has grown over the past few months in size. On 4/11/25, that allocation was at .6%. 

The kind of stock market decline experienced yesterday will take down most stocks and stock sectors. Several packaged food stocks were up but that sector is in a major bear market. (e.g. GIS up $.74 and was ex dividend; CAG up $.08; CPB up $.5). 

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Economy

The stock market decline yesterday was caused by Trump threatening to impose massive tariffs on China's exports and calling off a meeting with Xi to discuss trade. Trump Message on "Truth Social"  (Trump:  "I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.")

After the market closed, Trump announced that he would unilaterally impose a 100% republican tariff tax on top of the existing China tariffs. The new rate will become effective on 11/1/25. Trump adds 100% tariff on China, critical software export controls If implemented, the tariff will in effect operate as an embargo on China's exports and probably on U.S. exports to China when China retaliates as it did earlier this year. Trump believes that coercion will work on China. 

I discussed this development in a post published yesterday and why China may not succumb to Trump's pressure. 

Yesterday China retaliated against Trump unilaterally levying U.S. port docking fees on Chinese ships by levying fees on ships owned by U.S. companies or individuals docking in China's ports. The fees will take effect on 10/14/25: China imposes retaliatory port fees on American-owned ships docking in country - CBS News

If the new tariffs are implemented and China retaliates, almost no U.S. farm produce will be purchased by China's importers, trade between the two nations will grind to an almost complete halt, supply chain disruptions in the U.S. economy will dramatically increase, and almost no tariffs for products imported from China will be collected from U.S. importers since the high tariffs will act as an embargo on almost all Chinese exports to the U.S. . 

China may have decided that the only way to deal with Trump is to allow him to cause significant damage to the U.S. economy, U.S. companies, U.S. farmers and U.S. consumers just prior to the midterm elections on 11/3/26. Trump can blame China until he turns blue but that will not help the republican House and Senate incumbents up for reelection. 

U.S. Soybean Harvest Starts with No Sign of Chinese Buying as Brazil Sets Export Record - farmdoc dailyUS soybean farmers, deserted by big buyer China, scramble for other importers | Reuters

China started to reduce its reliance on U.S. soybeans during Trump's first term after he started a trade war. The loss in market share proved to be permanent. (My video: Negative Impacts on U S Food Exports Resulting from Trump's Tariff Increases During his 1st Term - YouTube, published about 9 months ago, citing in part the data contained in Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters - The Atlantic, & Harm to U S Farmers from Tariff Wars and Odds of a Stock Market Valuation Reset - YouTube published 12 days ago) 

"In 2016, Brazil supplied 46% of China’s soybean imports before tariffs were raised, while the United States provided 40%, according to Trade Data Monitor" By 2023, "Brazil’s share of China’s soybean imports had surged to more than 70%, while the U.S.’s soybeans share had fallen to 24%." Midwest farmers advocate for steady policies amid trade challenges-Investigate Midwest

Farmers overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2024 knowing that he would cause financial harm to them. The political issue is whether or not farmers should be bailed out again for the harm caused by republican policies that they voted to implement last November given their knowledge of what Trump would do to them.  

The farmer bailout in Trump's first term used up almost all of the tariff money collected from China that was ultimately paid by U.S. consumers. 92 Percent of Trump’s China Tariff Proceeds Has Gone to Bail Out Angry Farmers | Council on Foreign Relations

Latest supply chain data looks eerily like a freight recession - YouTube

New York Fed: Consumer outlook sours as inflation expectations riseSurvey of Consumer Expectations - Federal Reserve Bank of NY 

Global debt hits record of nearly $338 trillion, says IIF | Reuters

Tariff Policy 'Extremely Unwise,' Says Fmr. Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin - YouTube

Steve Rattner: Red states use Obamacare more; health care cuts hit red states hardest - YouTube

UK investment platform warns traders to avoid bitcoin, crypto While bitcoin can function to a limited decree as an alternative to fiat currencies due to the limit on its creation, crypto can not function as a widespread medium of exchange for goods and services due to its limited supply and wild fluctuations in price. As with gold, my preferred alternative to fiat currencies as a store of value, there is no fact based support justifying a "fair value" range in dollars since neither have earnings, pay interest or dividends, or own other assets that can be valued like real estate.  

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The Orwellian U.S. Government

Trump ordered his former attorneys Lindsay Halligan and Pam Bondi to indict James Comey. What is not generally known is that only 14 out of 23 grand jurors voted in favor of two indictments. The Comey Indictment’s Glaring Irregularities 9 out of 23 found there was no probable cause, a very low evidentiary standard, to indict him. That explains why a prosecutor in good faith concluded that the evidence was insufficient to obtain a criminal conviction and further explains why Trump fired that career government prosecutor and appointed his own attorney and former beauty contestant as the replacement, notwithstanding her total lack of relevant experience in criminal law. 

Anyone that Trumps wants to be indicted, and then undergo a perp walk, will be indicted since the DOJ under Bondi will do IMO whatever they are told by Trump to do. ‘We can’t delay any longer’: Trump urges Bondi to prosecute his rivals - POLITICOTrump accidentally posted message pressuring Pam Bondi to charge his enemies, source says Another former Trump attorney, Todd Blanche, is the Deputy AG. Deputy AG Todd Blanche says ‘organized’ Trump protesters could be investigated - POLITICO I view Blanche as worse than Bondi but arguably better than Halligan.

FBI agent relieved of duty over refusing Comey perp walk, four people familiar say | Reuters

The Grand Jury only hears what the prosecutor allows them to consider. There is no cross examination of witness by opposing counsel. Prosecutors acting in bad faith will not proffer any exculpatory evidence known to be accurate. To obtain a conviction, the jury will have to find Comey guilty beyond a reasonable doubt after he provides exculpatory evidence, testifies on his own behalf, his counsel cross examines the witnesses and documentary and other evidence is acquired through discovery including evidence relating to the prosecution being vindictive.   

No prosecutor acting in good faith and following the DOJ's guidelines would have pursued a criminal case against Comey when 39% of the grand jurors did not even find probable cause after a limited GJ proceeding controlled by Trump's former personal lawyer. Virginia Prosecutor Elizabeth Yusi Rebukes Donald Trump Over Letitia James Prosecution: Report - NewsweekTop Federal Prosecutor REFUSES To Indict Trump Enemy Letitia James - YouTube Ms. Yusi has worked for the DOJ for more than 18 years.  

Trump ordered Bondi to indict the NY AG Letitia James and that has now been done. Letitia James indicted after Trump called for chargesTrump-Picked US Attorney Secures Grand Jury Indictment of Letitia James - Newsweek

New reporting CONFIRMS Trump accidentally posted DM to Bondi ordering prosecutions - YouTube The reporting originates from the WSJ.  

Trump’s Vengeance Campaign Is Escalating - The Atlantic 

Trump is considering the Insurrection Act to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago, Portland - YouTube  

There is zero republican pushback on Trump ordering the arrest of his political opponents. Republicans support what he is doing and that needs to kept in mind for as long as you live. In the latest polling, over 90% of republicans approve of what Trump is doing as President.  

When Pam Bondi was repeatedly asked whether Tom Holman kept the $50,000 given to him reportedly in a paper bag by the FBI, Pam Bondi refused to answer the question or any question about Epstein and Trump. Instead, she personally attacked the Democrats asking the questions rather than answering any of them, a now standard tactic in Trump's America. Schiff Lists Every Question Pam Bondi Ignored as She Melts Down | The New Republic The Republican Senators praised her effusively, which is to be expected since they have completely abandoned any oversight function in their servile pandering to Trump.  The only reason for refusing to answer the questions is that truthful answers would hurt Trump and Holman. Her responses is what the Trump Administration "transparency" actually means in practice.   

Trump has repeatedly and falsely claimed that Portland is "burning to the ground". He uses that reality creation to justify a military invasion of this American city. Trump's false claim has already been rejected by a federal district court judge that he appointed. Trump says Portland is ‘burning to the ground.’ It’s not. - PoynterTrump claims ‘Portland is burning’ while federal agents escalate ICE protest response - oregonlive.comJudge blocks Trump from sending National Guard from California to Portland The Judge found that state and city officials "provide(d) substantial evidence that the protests at the Portland ICE facility were not significantly violent or disruptive in the days—or even weeks—leading up to the President’s directive". Order at page 19.pdf The Court also found that Trump's characterizations of what was actually happening in Portland were "untethered to facts" (p. 23), which is normal for Trump when exercising dictatorial powers supported by Republican politicians, either expressly or through their silence. Affidavits supporting that finding can be found at Items 9, 42-46 State of Oregon v. Trump, 3:25-cv-01756 – CourtListener.com Lawyers at Pam Bondi's DOJ have appealed the judge's order and will argue that the invasion is justified. Notice of Appeal

Trump says Illinois’ Pritzker and Johnson ‘should be in jail’ - POLITICOTrump calls for jailing of Illinois governor and Chicago mayor in immigration standoffTrump says Gov. JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson 'should be in jail' Trump did not provide any evidence that those Democrats had committed any crime. Evidence is so passé in Trump's America anyway. Why even bother since at least 80 million view evidence as irrelevant or as Fake News? I am not aware of any republican politician criticizing this Trump threat or any other, even in the mildest of terms. All of them, who are not in the process of retiring (meaning Congressman Don Bacon from Nebraska), are Trump enablers and nothing less than his servile minions and sycophants. They would kneel down before the Chosen One and lick mud off his shoes if he asked them - maybe a slight exaggeration. 

The most important Trump enablers IMO are not republican politicians but the 6 Republican Justices who, knowing that Trump is an authoritarian demagogue, have nonetheless insulated him from criminal prosecutions even after he leaves office, which in effect creates incentives for Trump to violate the law, and have created for him new Presidential powers that usurp the powers of Congress provided in the Constitution. They were also fully aware of the evidence supporting the federal criminal charges filed against him and protected Trump from them by creating an immunity in 2024 and by rewriting in 2024 the Obstruction of an Official Proceeding criminal statute (My Videos: Republican Justices Greenlight the President to Commit Crimes - YouTube, and Supreme Court Protects Trump from Obstruction of an Official Proceeding Criminal Charge - YouTube, both published about 1 year ago) All 6 of the Republican Justices and Judge Aileen Cannon are consequently bear responsibility IMO for what Trump has already done as President and will do as he continues to abuse his power. It will only get worse. 

When interpreting the Constitution, maybe one of the Republican Justices will start to wonder why there was a Revolutionary War that led to the Constitution. Americans did not want to be ruled by a King but at least King George was somewhat accountable to the English Parliament. There are no such restraints in Congress now. There are no effective checks in balances anywhere to be found in Congress, the Executive Branch or the Judicial branch, where it ultimately matters in the Supreme Court.  George III and his Prime Ministers – History of government

White House looks for a loophole in the law that ensures federal workers get paid after a shutdownTrump: It depends which furloughed workers will get back pay

Trump's GOP is not a conservative party in the American tradition. I do not believe the GOP can be saved as a conservative party. 

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Ideological Trends in U.S. Terrorism Historically, the charts show that right wing terrorist attacks far out number attacks from the left, but you would not know that listening to Trump and others in his administration. 

House of South Carolina Judge Criticized by Trump Administration Burns Down | TIMEJudge who ruled against the feds sees her house burn downMassive fire engulfs home of South Carolina judge - YouTube Currently, there is no evidentiary link that the fire was started a politically motivated terrorist attack. She had received numerous death threats from Trump supporters. South Carolina judge's $1.5m beachfront home burned to the ground in possible arson attack just weeks after brutal decision against Trump administration 

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My opinions about stock charts are based solely on my experience looking at charts. I have no training or book learning in technical analysis. 

My stock purchases are mostly in the equity REIT sector whose stocks are in disfavor among buyers who count as shown in the 5 and 10 year total return numbers. Vanguard Real Estate ETF Performance - Morningstar The total return numbers include reinvestment of dividends.  

1. Small Ball Common Stock/Stock Fund Purchases

The current focus remains on averaging down with equity REIT purchases. As prices continue to fall, the dividend yield for new purchases goes up.  

I view the equity REIT stock sector as a "bond substitute" which defines the objective and says nothing about the safety of the dividend. Many REITs have cut their dividends. The objective of a "bond substitute" stock is to harvest the dividends and to realized a 2% annual profit on the shares. 

A. Added to UDR in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $36.3; 5 at $35.9; 3 at 35.54 :

Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT

Cost: $467.61

UDR is a component of the S&P 500.

UDR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 43

UDR SEC Filings

2024 SEC Filed Annual Report

Corporate Profile | UDR, Inc.

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

5 Year Chart: Bear market pattern, with a double top near $58 in 2022. 

New Average cost per share: $39.9 (50+ shares)

I will continue buying in 1 to 5 share lots, provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain until I reach 100 shares.

DividendQuarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually)

I am reinvesting the dividend now as a means to average down randomly and as alternative to keep funds in my Schwab sweep account that currently pays a very tiny fraction of 1%: 

UDR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC: 4.31%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/9/25 (owned 47+ as of)  

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report here: Item # 1.I. Bought 1 UDR at $37.98 (8/12/25 Post)SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental

B. Started Duplicate Position in KIM (Vanguard Account) - Bought 10 at $21.25:

Quote: Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM)

Cost $212.5

Kimco owns 566 open-air grocery anchored shopping centers and mixed use properties in the U.S with square footage at 101M. Kimco Realty

I owned 6 Kimco LP SU Bonds that matured earlier this year ($162.32 "profit"):



Due to the decline in interest rates, I have not replaced those bonds with new purchases. Instead, for now, I have opted to incrementally increase my positions in the common stock as the replacement.

I currently own only 2 Kimco Operating SU bonds that were bought last December.  Item # 3.D. Bought 2 Kimco 3.25% SU Maturing on 8/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.571 (12/12/24 Post)Bond Page | FINRA.org (credit rating BBB+/Baa1 according to FINRA, Bond Page | FINRA.org) I will hold that bond until it is redeemed by the issuer. The S&P credit report available at KIM's Investor Relations website indicates that the rating was raised to A- as of 9/15/25 with the preferred stock rating increased to BBB from BBB-. Fitch has a A- rating. 

Management: Internal

Last DiscussedItem # 1.A. Started KIM in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $18.05; 5 at $15.58 (4/19/24 Post) 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25

KIM SEC Filings

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last raised from $.24 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment. There was a dividend slash from $.28 per share to $.10 share effective for the 2020 third quarter payment due to the pandemic. It may be another 3 to 5 years for the quarterly dividend to return to the $.28 per share paid in the 2020 second quarter. I have a negative view of this dividend history, more attributable to the time it will take to restore the quarterly dividend to $.28 than the initial slash which was understandable.    

KIM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $21.25

Last Ex Dividend: 9/5/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/20/25): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $525.175M, up from $500.231M

GAAP Net Income: $155.43M

GAAP E.P.S. $.23

FFO: $297.565

FFO per share: $.44, up from $.41 in the 2024 second quarter

Reconciliation: 

 2025 FFO per share guidance: $1.73-$1.75

I could not find an AFFO number which adjusts FFO down by routine maintenance expenses and pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. I suspect that an AFFO per share number, if provided, would have exceed the $.25 per share quarterly dividend. 


Last Kimco Operating SU Offering (6/25)Prospectus for $500M 5.3% SU Maturing in 2036 guaranteed by Kimco Realty.

C. Started Duplicate Position in UMH (Vanguard Account) - Bought 10 at $14.52; 10 at $14.26+ 

Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH)

Cost: $287.9

UMH SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: UMH Properties | Manufactured Home Sales & Home Communities

5 Year Chart: Bear Market Pattern with a high hit at $27+ in December 2021.  

Last DiscussedItem # 4.D.  Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $15 (9/8/25 Post)

Average cost per share this account: $14.395 (20 shares)

I will take this position up to 100 shares, provided each subsequent 5 or 10 share purchase is made at the lowest price in the chain.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.90 annually)

UMH Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $14.40: 6.25%

Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.D. Added to UMH -  Bought 5 at $15.7 (8/26/25 Post)SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental

D. Added to UMH in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $14.18

See Item # 1.C. above. 

Cost: $70.9

Average cost per share in this account: $15.78 (75+ shares)

I am reinvesting the dividend in this account. 

My limit is 100 shares in this account plus shares purchased with dividends. The next purchase will be 25 shares when and if the price sinks below $13.8. 

Yield at New AC per share: 5.7%

E. Started NEWT - Bought 10 at $11.22; 10 at $10.77:

Quote: NewtekOne Inc. (NEWT) 

Cost: $219.75

NEWT is a financial holding company whose subsidiaries include Newtek Bank, a branchless nationally chartered bank. The company also provides payment and payroll processing, insurance solutions, and various technology solutions.  

Website: NewtekOne

NEWT Profile Page at Reuters


5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern Starting in July 21. Using a five year chart, the stock topped out near $39 in May 2021.

Conversion from a BDC: NEWT converted from a BDC in 2023. As part of that process, Newtek acquired completed the acquisition of a bank holding company in January 2023. Newtek Business Services Corp. Completes Acquisition of National Bank of New York City (1/6/23); Newtek Receives Approval from the Federal Reserve to Become a Bank Holding Company (11/21/23). This conversion from a BDC to a financial holding company did result in a substantial dividend cut. As a BDC, the last quarterly dividend was at $.70 per share and was paid in the 2022 4th quarter. NewtekOne, Inc. CEO, Barry Sloane, Comments on the Declaration of its First Quarterly Dividend as a Financial Holding Company of $0.18 per Share (2/27/23) This change in the dividend policy resulted in selling, probably by individual shareholders. The stock traded at over $20 in mid-February 2023. There was a failed rally in August 2023 that topped out at $19+. 

I vaguely recalled owning this stock but could only find a 5 share round-trip back in 2020: 

2020 NEWT 5 Shares +$24.07

The company was then a BDC.  

NEWT SEC Filings 

NEWT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/9/25, the average 2025 E.P.S. estimate was at $2.16; at $2.35 in 2026; and at $2.1 in 2027. 

Average cost per share: $11 (20 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)

NEWT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at AC = 6.91%

Next Ex Dividend: 10/14/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25

Net Income (available to common shareholders): $13.303M

Diluted E.P.S. $.52, up from $.43

Newtek Bank NIM: 5.46%

Newtek Bank Efficiency Ratio: 48.7%

NEWT Tangible Book Value per common share: $10.55

NEWT NIM: 2.78%

NEWT Efficiency Ratio: 60.3%

F. Added to GOOD in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $11.6

Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) - A REIT

Cost: $116

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)

Properties- Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)

GOOD SEC Filings

GOOD SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report

10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 Owned as of 143 properties with 17M square feet that was 98.7% occupied with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7 years. GOOD is classified as a net lease REIT, see page 26.   

Last DiscussedItem # 1.F. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $12.2(10/4/25 Post)Item # 1.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $12.7; 10 at $12.5; 10 at $12.4 (9/27/25 Post)Item # 3.D. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account -Bought 10 at $12.9 and Item # 3.E Added to GOOD in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $12.95 (9/13/25 Post) 

Average cost per share this account: $12.62 (70 shares)

I will take this position up to 100 shares but each subsequent 10 share add will have to be at the lowest price in the chain. 

DividendMonthly at $.10 per share. 

GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Effective for the next payment, I changed my dividend option to reinvestment in this account only. I will continue doing so until the likely reinvestment price will exceed my average cost per share. 

Yield at New AC this account: 9.51%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 20 at $13.1 (8/26/25 Post);  SEC Filed Press Release 

Some Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.C. Sold 5 GOOD at $14.77 - Fidelity Account (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.06); Item # 3.O. Pared GOOD - Sold 3 at $16.87 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.74); Item # 2.E. Pared GOOD - Sold 5 at $15.31 A (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.2); Item # 2.B. Eliminated GOOD in my Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 16 at $12.26  (11/25/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.77); Item # 3.B. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account - Sold 26+ at $13.33 (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $128.61); Item # 2.B. Pared GOOD in Fidelity Account - Sold 8 at $16.69 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.77); Item # 3.F. Pared GOOD - Sold 2.197 shares at $20.8  and 2.352 shares at $20.84 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.77); Item 1.M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.17); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $165.33)

GOOD Realized Gains to Date$442.99

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. 

Owned Equity Preferred Stock: 85 shares. Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Pfd. Series E Stock  (GOODN)Prospectus {dividends paid monthly) 

Last discussed at Item # 2.C. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18 (7/22/23 Post) and Item # 1.E. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18.25 (7/8/23 Post)Item # 1.A. Added to GOODN - Bought 5 at $18.7; 5 at $18.3; 5 at $17.86; 5 at $17.3  (4/29/23 Post) 

GOODN taxable accounts: For the both the common and preferred stocks, there has been some ROC adjustments to the original cost numbers.  

50 shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share of $16.65 (yield = 9.95%)

25 shares in my my Fidelity Account at a $16.51 AC per share (yield at 10.03%)

10 shares in my Vanguard Account with a $15.64 AC per share (yield at 10.59%)

G. Restarted TY - Bought 5 at $34.2

Quote: Tri-Continental Corp. Overview - Balanced CEF

Cost: $171

TY is one of the closed end funds that was formed prior to the 1929 crash (1/14/1929) that survived. TY is a balanced CEF weighted in stocks. The leveraged CEFs did not survive the 1929 crash and the subsequent decline in the stock market until a DJIA bottom was hit in 1932 near 40. Dow Jones - 100 Year Historical Chart The bankruptcy of leveraged CEFs is discussed in John Kenneth Galbraith's book, The Great Crash 1929, which I recommend reading. 

Sponsor's website:  Tri-Continental Corporation 

Leveraged: Slightly at less than 2% with preferred stock.  

Tri-Continental Corporation - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/25

Asset categories as of 6/30

Top 10 Holding as of 8/31/25

Dividends: Paid quarterly at a variable rate

TY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

2014-2024 Dividends (first column is "income" and then  capital gains, the return of capital and the total dividend paid in the year indicated)


Tri-Continental Distribution Policy and History 

Last Ex Dividend: 9/16/24

Data Date of 10/3/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $37.99

Closing Market Price: $34.11

Discount: -10.21%

Average 3 Year Discount: -11.67%

Sourced: TY - CEF Connect 

Tri-Continental Corporation (TY) Page at Morningstar Currently rated 4 stars

Last DiscussedItem # 1.E. Eliminated TY Sold 15 at $33.8 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot =  $97.64)

Prior Sell DiscussionItem # 3.H. Eliminated TY - Sold 10 at $33.5 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Added to TY - Bought 5 at $26.44 (11/18/23 Post)Item # 1.G. Bought 10 TY at $27.72 (9/2/23 Post)

Goal: Harvest the dividends and sell the shares at a profit.  

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. p

H. Restarted Duplicate CHCT Position in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $13.92; 5 at $13.56+

Quote: Community Healthcare Trust Inc. (CHCT) - Healthcare REIT

Cost: $137.42

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy 

CHCT is a REIT "that focuses on owning income-producing real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services". As of 6/30/25, CHCT had investments in 200 real estate properties totalling about 4.5M square feet.  

CHCT SEC Filings 

CHCT SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report 

5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern. The price was over $52 in April 2021. I view this chart as reflecting  a lack of investor confidence in the Board and management of this REIT. The current dividend yield suggests that a slash will occur.  

Average cost per share this account: $13.74 (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.4675 per share ($1.87 annually)

CHCT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $13.92: 13.61%

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report here:  Item # 1.B. Added to CHCT in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $16.5 (8/5/25 Post)SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental (list of properties starts at page 16) I discussed in that post a major mistake made by this REIT in leasing and loaning money to a defaulting tenant that has caused a significant stock price decline. The mistake was substantial given this REIT's small size. 

I had an unfavorable reaction to this last report and eliminated a 5 share position in my Fidelity account at $15.83, discussed in Item # 2.G. of the preceding linked post. 

I will consider buying more in this account, provided each subsequent purchase is no more than 5 shares and is at the lowest price in the chain. 

I view this stock as high risk which may work out provided no further significant mistakes are made and the dividend is not cut. 

I. Added to MAA - Bought 1 at $135

Quote: Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) - Apartment REIT 

I am buying in 1 share lots with each purchase required to be $2 lower than the previous one.  

As of June 30, 2025, MAA had ownership interest in 104,347 apartment units, including communities currently in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia."

Same Store average physical occupancy: 95.4% Supplemental Data at page S-4 

Average cost per share: $137 (3 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.515 per share ($6.06 annually), last raised from $1.47 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. 

MAA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at AC: 4.42%

Next Ex Dividend: 10/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed the last earnings report here: Item # 1.E.  Restarted MAA - Bought 1 at $139 and 1 at $137 (10/4/25 Post)SEC Filing

Last Elimination Item # 1.E. Eliminated MAA - Sold 5 at $169.88 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.26) 

J. Added to KBWY - Bought 5 at $15.49; 5 at $15.23+ - Fidelity Account



Quote: 
 Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF Overview 

Cost: $153.62

This ETF owns the highest yielding equity REITs which amounts to a collection of the riskiest ones IMO. 

Sponsor's website: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF

Expense Ratio: .35% 

New average cost per share: $16.15 (45+ shares)

Dividend: Monthly at a slightly variable rate.  

KBWY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

I am reinvesting the dividend as a means to average down randomly. I will continue doing so for as long as the reinvestment price is lower than my average cost per share. 

Last 12 Dividends: $1.51 per share 

Yield at New AC per share Using Annual at $1.51: 9.35%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/25

KBWY Morningstar Page Currently rated 1 star

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.  

Risk EvaluationHigh IMO. I currently own 17 of the stocks owned by this fund. They are not quality equity REITs IMO. Many have cut their dividends over the past several years. I would describe them generally as the riskier equity REITs with significantly higher dividend yields than the quality ones.  

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 3.E. Pared KBWY - Sold 10 at $20.54; 17+ at $20.63  (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.39). I sold my highest cost lots.  

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots

Maximum Position: 100 shares

2. Small Ball Common Stock Sells:

A. Pared MDT - Sold Highest Cost 5 Shares at $97.32

Quote: Medtronic PLC (MDT) - A Large Medical Device Company

Proceeds: $486.63

Reuters MDT Profile Page 

Reuters MDT Key Metrics Page 

The stock was selling at a higher price in the 2019 summer. A ten year top in the stock price was hit near $136 in August 2021. 

MDT Estimates | MarketWatch

MDT SEC Filings

10-Q for the Fiscal Quarter Ending 7/25/25 Long term debt was at $26.179B and is listed at page 13.

Investor Relations | Medtronic - Overview

Last DiscussedItem # 2.I. Pared MDT - Sold 5 at  $90.05 (7/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot  = $45.05); Item # 3.A. Pared MDT - Sold 5 $86.06 (7/3/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.81); Item # 4.E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in MDT - Sold 4 at $89.79 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.9)

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 1.B.  Added to MDT - Bought 5 at $77.3 (7/5/24 Post)   

Profit Snapshot: $86.88

New Average cost per share: $75.46 (15 shares)

Snapshot after pare/Closing price as of 10/3/25

Reduced from $76.58

Dividend: Quarterly at $.71 per share ($2.84 annually), last raised from $.70 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. The quarterly rate was at $.38 in the 2015 third quarter. 

Slowdown in Dividend Growth The growth rate slowed in 2022 when the annual quarterly increases for 2023, 2024 and 2025 were only 1 cent per share. The annual quarterly increases in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 were $.3, $.04, $.04, $.04, $.05; and $.05 respectively. I view the slowdown in dividend growth to be material. 

MDT Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $75.46: 3.76%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/26/25 (Owned 20 as of)  

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending on 7/25/25): This is the first fiscal quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. 

SEC Filed Press Release 

"Revenue of $8.6 billion, adjusted revenue of $8.5 billion, increased 8.4% as reported and 4.8% organic"

Breakdown in revenues by business segment: 

A detailed description of the business segments can be found at pages 34-40 of the last filed 10-Q and at pages 3-8 of the last SEC Filed Annual Report

"GAAP diluted EPS of $0.81 increased 1%; non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.26 increased 2%"

Reconciliation: 

I am only willing to adjust GAAP for the $.26 per share amortization of intangible assets and the $.05 per share loss on minority investment gain provided the loss was not realized but merely an adjustment in the value. I view the other adjustments as routine expenses which will vary from quarter to quarter but are IMO integral to its business and recurring. Those include restructuring, litigation expenses, acquisition and divestment expense. 

MDT Realized Gains to Date: $2,062.4  

Two Largest Gains

2011 MDT 239+ shares +$883.29

2014 MDT 30 Shares +$914.5

For the last 10 years or so, I viewed this stock  only as a short term trade. I will start to contemplate eliminating the remaining shares when and if the price goes over $105 or just over $100 next year when the realized gain would be taxable that year rather than in 2025.   

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab Customers): 

Morningstar (8/19/25): 4 stars with an estimated fair value of $112

S&P (9/12/25):  4 stars with a 12 month price target of $105 

Argus (8/25/25): Buy with a $115 price target, raised from $105. 

I do not have access to GS analyst reports. Goldman has a sell rating on MDT and lowered its price target to $81 from $82 on 10/1/25. 

Last Bond Offering ((9/25/25): Prospectus 

Other Recent NewsMedtronic announces MiniMed as name for planned New Diabetes Company - Jun 12, 2025Medtronic announces intent to separate Diabetes business - May 21, 2025 (expected to be completed within 18 months)

B. Sold 8 GLQ at $7.71 and 23+ at $7.41+

Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview

Proceeds: $233.10

Leveraged long/short CEF 

I sold my highest cost lots. The tax cost basis for all shares was over $6.


SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25 Leverage is discussed at pages 39-40, Note 6. 

Last DiscussedItem # 3.E. Pared GLQ in Fidelity Account - Sold 29 at $7.26 (8/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.17);Item # 6.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in GLQ - Sold 39 at $7.18 (7/22/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.15) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Added to CLQ - Bought 10 at $6.78 (8/29/24 Post)Item # G. Added to GLQ - Bought 10 at $6.49 (3/28/24 Post)Item # 3.A. Added to GLQ - Bought 5 at $5.2 (11/4/23 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $60.45 (10/8/25 & 9/5/25 Sales Only)


I did not previously discuss the sale on 9/5/25.

New average cost per share this account: $4.84 (70+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 10/8/25 after pare 

DividendMonthly at $.065 per share ($.78 annually)


ROC supported. 

The 2025 profit will be slightly higher after the tax cost basis is adjusted for that part of the monthly dividends classified as ROC.  

I am not reinvesting the dividend. 

Yield at $4.84: 16.12%

Data Date of 10/8/25 Trade

Closing Net Asset value per share: $8.88 
Closing Market Price: $7.76 
Discount: -12.61%
Average 3 Year Discount: -14.21%
Sourced: GLQ - CEF Connect 

Goal: Given the dividend yield, the goal is simply to sell the shares at a profit before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis. 

I checked 4 confirmation to determine that this goal was achieved:  





All of those purchases were made between $5.92 and $6.82. 

C. Eliminated CVE - Sold 50 at $18.2 - Schwab Account



In CADs: Cenovus Energy Inc. (Canada: Toronto)

Proceeds: $909.99 

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

Website: Cenovus Energy is an integrated Canadian oil company

Recent News

Cenovus announces amended agreement with increased price to acquire MEG Energy and provides update on third-quarter operating results (10/8/25) While the price was raised slightly due to a competing offer, the allocation was changed to 50% in cash/50% in CVE Stock from 75% in cash/25% in stock. Cenovus announces agreement to acquire MEG Energy (8/22/25) The stock rallied on 10/9 possibly due to lowering the cash component in the revised offer. CVE's existing debt prior to this acquisition was one of my concerns with the other material one being the decline in energy prices likely to remain under downside pressure for longer than I previously expected, as noted in my last post. The problem is a demand/supply imbalance going into the fall and winter.   

Cenovus Energy to sell interest in WRB Refining to Phillips 66 The approximate consideration is US$1.4B. CVE has a 50% interest in that refinery. 

Profit Snapshot: Net of $54.69


I did get rid of some higher cost shares while netting a profit. I will consider restarting a small ball position next year when and if the price falls below US$15.  

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.20 per share, last raised from C$.18 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. 

Dividends in USDsCVE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha The last payment was US$.1449.

Foreign Tax Withholding: When paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account, Canada is allowed to take 15% of the dividend but no tax can be withheld when the dividend, paid by a non-pass through entity, is paid into a U.S. citizens retirement account under the existing U.S.-Canada Tax Treaty. The broker still needs to claim U.S. citizenship status at the source. 

Last Ex Dividend: 9/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Press Release 

All amounts are in CADs. Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter. 

Revenues: $2.375B, down from $2.807B
E.P.S. = $.45, down from $.53
Long Term Debt: $7.241B, down from $7.275B
Net Debt: $4.934B, up from $4.258B
Excess free funds flow ($306M), down from +$735M

Production Types: 


Prior CVE EliminationItem # 3.H. Sold 10 CVE at $16.2 (3/31/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $92.74) - Item # 2.K. Bought 10 CVE at $6.93 (3/6/21 Post) The purchase was made during one of the periodic collapses in energy prices. Crude Oil Prices (1946-2025)

CVE Reset Equity Preferred Stock: I eliminated my only position in a CVE reset equity preferred stock in March 2024: Item # 1 Eliminated CVEPRC:CA - Sold 100 at C$23.56  (3/28/24 Post)(profit snapshot = C$717)


3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

All purchases were made in my Schwab account. 

A. Bought 5 T Bills at the 10/6/25 Auction

91 Day Bills

Mature on 1/8/25: 

Interest: $48.66

Investment Rate: 3.942%

B. Bought 5 T Bills at the 10/6/25 Auction

182 Day Bill

Matures on 4/9/25

Interest: $93.4

Investment Rate: 3.818%

C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 10/8/25 Auction

119 Day Bill

Matures on 2/10/26

Interest:  $62.39

Investment Rate: 3.876%

4. Exchange Traded Bond

A. Started NEWTI - Bought 5 at $24.95

Quote: NewtekOne Inc. 8% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2028  (NEWTI) 

Cost:  $124.75

I discussed this company in Item # 1.E. above. 

Credit Risk: High IMO

While the snapshot information refers to this security as a "pfd", an abbreviation for a preferred stock, it is a senior unsecured bond.

"The Notes will be senior unsecured obligations of the Company and will rank equally with all of the Company’s other senior unsecured indebtedness from time to time outstanding". Prospectus 

Par Value: $25

Coupon: 8%

Yield at $24.95: 8.016%

Interest Paid Quarterly

Trades Flat (the buyer does not pay accrued interest to the seller and the owner on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly payment)

Last Ex Interest Date: 8/15/25

Matures on 9/1/28 unless called earlier at issuer's option

Optional Redemption: On or after 9/1/25 at par value + accrued and unpaid interest.  

Prior Round-Trip NEWT Exchange Traded Bond: I flipped an exchange traded bond issued by NEWT that had the same symbol but was a different bond:

2020 NEWTI 20 Shares +$14.68 

This one matured in 2023 and had a 6.25% coupon. Item # 7.B. Sold 20 NEWTI at $24.05 (5/9/2020 Post) 

5. Leveraged Bond CEFs

I am wary of leveraged bond CEFs and become more so when the current price is near the net asset value per share or at a premium. 

While borrowing costs for BHK will decline as the FED cuts the federal funds rate, the net interest rate margin for bonds bought with borrowed money is negligible or negative for investment grade securities after the expense ratio is deducted from the yield. 

Bonds have rallied some in the past several weeks, but I am concerned that the current yields are mispricing the inflation risks. I consequently will have a hair trigger on eliminating positions in leveraged bond CEFs and will view any profit on the shares after harvesting several monthly dividends as a victory.     

I would note that a resumption of Q/E, which is more probable than not with an economic downturn, has caused in the past intermediate and long term interest rates to decline even when inflation is hot. That probability increases in 2026 due the midterm elections, Trump's control of the FED after Powell's term expires and possibly the successful firing of Lisa Cook, and his justificable fear that the Democrats will launch multiple impeachment investigations, which are deserved IMO, when regaining control over the House.   

A. Eliminated BHK Again - Sold 20 at $10.07

Quote: BlackRock Core Bond Trust Overview - A Leverage Bond CEF

Proceeds: $201.4

BHK SEC Filings 

BHK SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/25 A list of holding starts at page 14.  

Sponsor's website: Core Bond Trust | BHK (As of 9/30/25, the effective duration was at 9.28 years, and  the leverage was at 35.15%) Leverage is discussed at page 138 of the previously linked semiannual report. 

Credit Quality: 

Profit: $10.4

Last DiscussedItem # 6.A. Restarted BHK - Bought 20 at  $9.5 (6/12/25 Post) The consider to restart a position was triggered by a greater discount to the 3 year average. The net asset value per share closed on the date of this purchase at $10.12, creating a 6.13% discount at the $9.5 price per share.    

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1. Eliminated BHK - Sold Remaining 54+ Shares at $11.64  (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $89.67). The closing market price was then at a 8.75% premium to the closing net asset value per share.

Dividend: Monthly at $.0746 per share ($.8952 annually)

BHK Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

ROC supported. 

Data Date of 10/7/25 Trade

Closing net asset value per share: $10.14 

Closing market price: $10.11 

Discount: -.3 %  

Average 3 year discount: -.35% 

Sourced: BHK - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab)

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.D. Pared BHK - Sold 20 at $11.85 (9/19/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.24);   Item # 2.N. Pared BHK - Sold 5+ at $11.36 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.76);  Item # 3.A. Sold 100 BHK at $12.74 (1/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $63); Item # 1 Sold Remaining BHK at $13.07 Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $28.17); Item # 4 Sold 200 of 300 BHK at Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $47.43); Pared Interest Rate Risk Exposure In Roth IRA: 200 BHK At $13.86 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $99.55); Item # 1 Sold 200 BHK at $13.86-Taxable Account-Completes BHK Transition to Roth IRA (1/14/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.23); Sold All of the Bond CEF BHK at $14.058 (2/21/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.3)

The long term decline in BHK's price does not inspire confidence in the managers of this fund, particularly since investment grade corporate bonds were in a bull market for most of the period prior to 2022. I do far better just buying individual bonds and trading them some. 

Realized Gains in BHK to Date: $514.27

Some realized gains were not discussed. 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.    

15 comments:

  1. I published earlier today a companion YT video to this blog post where I summarize what I view as key points, including (1) China may have concluded that its best option is to allow Trump to wreck the U.S. economy; (2) my opinion that interest rate cuts will not cure what ails the economy since the problems originate with Trump's policies that he will not change; (3) interest rate cuts will lower disposable income for savers that will negatively impact consumer spending; (4) more inflation and supply probable outcome from from tariffs supply chain disruptions resulting therefrom and from mass deportations; (5) consumer spending will decline in response to higher inflation and more concerns about the economy; (6) U.S. farmers will permanently lose international market share for their products or at least for the long term; (6) stocks are overvalued using traditional valuation criteria; and the (7) only asset categories that worked yesterday were gold and high quality debt.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SOLI_S6As8

    Maybe China will bend a knee and kill our Dear Leaders ring. I have more than a few doubts that is going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stock futures are up after Trump represented "It will all be fine" and 11/1/25 is an eternity away, more like 19 days.

    11/1 is the day that Trump would impose the additional 100% tariff on exports from China. Maybe everything will work out, maybe Trump will postpone the new tariffs, or maybe Trump is just manipulating investors in bad faith having no idea whether everything is going to work out.

    Prior to Trump making the claim that everything will work out, China claimed that it would not back down on its new restrictions on rare earth exports.

    "China ‘not afraid of trade war,’ accuses U.S. of ‘double standard’ for rare earths retaliation"
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/12/china-defends-rare-earth-export-curbs-as-legitimate-hits-back-at-us-tariffs-ahead-of-possible-trump-xi-meeting.html

    According to China, the double standard is that the U.S. imposes export restrictions on 3,000 products to China that are dual use, meaning one use would have military applications. The new restrictions on rare earth exports applies to companies tied to foreign militaries and "other sensitive sectors"

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/china-expands-rare-earth-export-restrictions-ahead-of-possible-trump-xi-meeting.html

    This does not sound like an issue that is going to be resolved easily.

    I did some buying last Friday in beaten up dividend stocks. I will continue to average down irrespective of what happens in broad stock market indexes.

    I will also be buying $50K in T Bills at next Tuesday's auction, primarily to shift the taxation of interest into 2026 and the yields for the 3 and 6 month T Bills will be higher that what I am receiving in my Fidelity and Schwab sweep accounts. It is clear that my interest income will decline in 2026 compared to 2025.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As 9:17 EDT. on 10/13/25, the spot price of silver was at $51.62 per ounce, up $1.73 or 3.47%:

    https://www.kitco.com/charts/silver

    There is currently a significant supply/demand imbalance as explained in this 10/8/25 article:

    https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/silver-50-record-squeeze-100920251

    Note the discussion that the silver ETFs then had insufficient amounts of silver to back their shares.

    Unlike gold, silver has industrial and other productive uses (excluding jewelry as productive) and those uses account for 50% of the demand.

    The parabolic spike in gold and silver prices has probably led to more than normal buying for investment purposes and that supply is hoarded. This can particularly strain the supply of silver needed in productive uses.

    I own silver bullion but, as with the gold that I own, I am frozen on doing anything since doing nothing has led to significantly higher unrealized gains.

    In the past, there have been 10 instances when silver traded 30% above its 200 day SMA line, which proved to "short lived" and was "followed by an average plunge of 24% over the follow 2 months".

    One way for me to relieve the internal tension about whether to sell any bullion is to sell a few shares of the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) that maintains close to a 25% allocation to gold and silver bullion. I have been paring my position.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prpfx



    ReplyDelete
  4. I published a video earlier today at YT discussing the parabolic price spikes in gold and silver that I discussed also in a comment here.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RREnuLvqNE

    ReplyDelete
  5. Have the last few days of Vix over 20, cause the count to restart at zero?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: The VIX count below 20 hit 90 on 10/9. The next day was a close at 21.66 and the last two closes were at 20.64 and 20.81. Technically the Stable Vix Pattern formed on 10/9 and the day count stopped. However, the 90 day period was established based on historical patterns to provide a margin of safety. The stock market rally to new highs makes no sense to me.

      I want at least 4 more days of closes below 20 without a move above 24. The rally to new highs is suspect given the deterioration in the economy. Slightly lower interest rates are not going to cure the factors causing a slowdown and may even contribute to higher inflation.

      Based on what Powell said recently, it looks like the FED is going back to what I call light Q/E, meaning that they will cease soon letting its bloated balance sheet runoff. Powell calls that an end to quantitative tightening and my label is light Q/E.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/feds-powell-suggests-tightening-program-could-end-soon-offers-no-guidance-on-rates.html

      Implementing any form of Q/E when inflation is moving higher is potentially a major monetary policy error, as proven recently by what happened to inflation in 2021-2022.

      The Fed's balance sheet went over $9 trillion in the last Q/E. M2 money creation rose over 41% during that Q/E. The Fed's balance sheet now stands at around $6.6 trillion, far above its 2019 level:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

      The closes above 20 so far are not included in the day count with my extension to 95 days on the day count, now at 91.

      Delete
    2. Hum. Very interesting. It's so borderline. I like the adjustments to adding a few more days, and also checking for movement over 24.

      My non analytical self, has knots in the stomach about the market.

      Delete
    3. Land: I have slightly revised the criteria for declaring a Stable Vix Pattern, partly due to the VIX moving above 20 the day after the 90 day count ended. I will restart the count with a close over 24 but will reluctantly accept the SVP formation with 4 more days of closes below 20.

      This is not impacting me since I will continue doing what I have been doing regardless of the stock market gyrations. If there is a 30% decline from the last hit S&P 500 high, I will expand the dollar amount of my purchases. Currently, I would welcome a 50% decline.

      The existing problems in the U.S. economy, including the jobs market and sticking inflation back to slight persistent rises, and what I view as a reasonably forecasted acceleration of inflation and pullbacks in consumer spending, are not going to be cured by AI spending on chips and data centers or lower interest rates, as currently anticipated by stock investors.

      Delete
    4. Today closed at Vix 25.31.

      Were you using Vix over 24, or 25?

      Delete
    5. Land: The current problem in commercial bank loans are a concern but not as serious IMO as what is about to happen to consumer prices and job growth that could accelerate bank losses and reduce consumer spending.

      Stock investors are in a delusionary mental condition when believing that slightly lower interest rates and AI spending on chips and data centers, which create very few jobs, will somehow cure what is happening now to job growth in other industry sectors and what I view as a likely acceleration in inflation caused in significant part by the tariffs and supply chain disruptions that will reduce consumer demand and a possible blowup in China-U.S. trade.

      As to the VIX, I was using a close above 24 but the close above 25 yesterday is even more consistent with why I have restarted the VIX SVP day count.

      New republican tariff taxes are going to be imposed next Tuesday.

      A republican tariff tax of 25% applied to furniture imports starts on Tuesday and will rise to 30% on 1/1/26. Another republican tariff tax of 25% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities also starts on Tuesday and will be increased to 50% on 1/1/26. The republican 10% tariff tax on softwood lumber imports also starts on Tuesday. The republican 25% tariff tax on medium and heavy duty trucks starts on 11/1/25.

      What happens if Trump succeeds in using high tariffs to coerce more U.S. manufacturing? I few more manufacturing jobs will be created but U.S. consumers will have to pay higher prices before the new plants are built due to the high tariffs and more when the U.S. manufacturing to replace the imports starts. It is an idiotic policy that is only starting to negatively impact the U.S. economy.

      Delete
  6. abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR)
    $185.72 -$2.95 -1.56%
    Last Updated: Oct 16, 2025 10:46 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gltr

    As previously discussed this ETF owns gold (63.24%)and silver bullion (28.95%) + small positions in palladium and platinum. All of those precious metals are up in price, so why is GLTR down?

    The intraday indicative value of the shares is currently at $185.67 accounting to Schwab which means the price got ahead of the asset value. YTD, GLTR is up $76.15 or about 69.35%.

    This ETF is lightly traded so it is more likely than GLD or SLV to become somewhat untethered from the current net asset value per share.

    ReplyDelete
  7. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
    $57.98 -$4.00 -6.46%
    Last Updated: Oct 16, 2025 at 3:19 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre

    I would attribute the downturn today to concerns about the banking industry disclosing more bad commercial loans.

    Jamie Dimon warned about cockroaches in the U.S.economy, referring to loans going bad and some recent bankruptcies:

    https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/16/business/jamie-dimon-us-economy-cockroaches

    That observation was based in part on the implosion of the subprime auto lender:

    https://www.kbb.com/car-news/a-big-auto-lender-went-bankrupt-heres-what-it-means/

    Another event was the implosion of First Brands that is discussed in the CNN article.

    The concern was reinforced today when Zion Bancorp disclosed a $50 million writedown of two related commercial and industrial loans.

    Zions Bancorp N.A. (ZION)
    $46.97 -$7.06 -13.07%
    Last Updated: Oct 16, 2025 at 3:28 p.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/zion

    Other banks are taking hits as well, such as Washington Bancorp (WASH) that announced charge-offs last week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These new, legitimate, concerns, seems come out of the blue. I haven't seen articles in the last few months worrying about banks.

      Delete
  8. A number of regional banks reported positive results earlier today that has reduced concerns about bad loan losses.

    Sentiment improved, at least temporarily earlier today, after it was reported that Trump claimed again that everything was going to be fine in the China trade negotiations. Bessent will be having a discussion with China's trade negotiator sometime today.

    In an interview with Fox earlier today, Trump made this claim: "I think we're going to do fine with China."

    Does he know that is likely to happen or is he just trying to manipulate investors into buying stocks today to keep the market from sliding today?

    Bitcoin is rapidly descending from its its $125,492 price on 10/6/25:

    CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX)
    $105,382 $ -3,174 -2.93%
    Last Updated: Oct 17, 2025 at 10:37 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd?mod=home_markets

    Using the $125,482 price, a 20% correction point would be $100,385.6.

    DJT bought $2B in bitcoin or bitcoin related securities in July, using in part $1B of borrowed money (convertible bonds). I discussed that risky bet in a YT video starting at 4:32:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syVB1cPzwmQ&t=282s

    Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
    $ 15.71 -$0.07 -0.47%
    52 Week Range
    $15.42 - $54.68
    Last Updated: Oct 17, 2025 at 10:36 a.m. EDT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/djt

    ReplyDelete
  9. I have published a new post:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/10/brt-good-gty-klc-kmb-krg-lkq-mdv-olp.html

    ReplyDelete