Economy:
New homes sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 772,000 last month, down 6.2% from the February 2021 estimate. Supply increased to 6.3 month from 6.1 in January. The median sales price was $400,600 with the average at $511K. Census Report-New Home Sales February 2022.pdf I suspect that the average median income family will have some difficulty paying for a median price home, particularly with mortgage rates going up.
Treasury yield have been moving up persistently this month so far:
FED members are increasingly talking about 50 basis points hikes in the FF rate.
Goldman sees Fed hiking rates by 50 bps at May, June meetings | Reuters
BlackRock's Larry Fink, who oversees $10 trillion, says Russia-Ukraine war is ending globalization
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Earnings Reports Owned Stocks:
Box (BOX) SEC Filed Press Release (This report was for the 4th fiscal quarter ending on 1/31/22; GAAP E.P.S. at ($.06); Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.24 with the consensus at $.233; the largest adjustment to GAAP is a $.32 per share add back for stock based compensation; "Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 was $233.4 million, a 17% increase from revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 of $198.9 million."; "Deferred revenue as of January 31, 2022, was $534.2 million, a 15% increase from deferred revenue as of January 31, 2021 of $465.6 million."; "Free cash flow in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 was $33.3 million. This compares to free cash flow of $41.0 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021.")
Campbell Soup (CPB) SEC Filed Press Release (This report is for the second fiscal quarter ending on 1/30/22; GAAP E.P.S. at $.72; non-GAAP at $.69 in line with the consensus; "Net sales in the quarter decreased 3% versus the prior year to $2.21 billion. Organic net sales, which exclude the impact from the sale of the Plum baby food and snacks business, decreased 2%. Pricing and sales allowances and lower promotional spending had a favorable 5% and 1% impact on net sales, respectively. This was more than offset by an 8% decrease in volume and mix as the company continued to navigate industry-wide labor and supply challenges."; guides fiscal 2022 adjusted E.P.S. to $2.75 to $2.85 compared to $2.86 in the 2021 fiscal year)
Dropbox (DBX) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. of $.34; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.41, up from $.28 in the 2020 4th quarter, with the consensus at $.366 per Fidelity; "Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments ended at $1.718 billion."; "Total revenue was $565.5 million, an increase of 12.2% from the same period last year. On a constant currency basis, year-over-year growth would have been 10.8%."; "Paying users ended at 16.79 million, as compared to 15.48 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $134.78, as compared to $130.17 for the same period last year."
General Mills (GIS) SEC Filed Press Release (This report was for the 3rd fiscal quarter ending on 2/27/22; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.08; non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.84 with the consensus at $.781 per Fidelity; "Net sales were essentially flat to last year at $4.5 billion, including a 3-point net headwind from divestiture and acquisition activity. Organic net sales increased 4 percent, reflecting 7 points of positive organic net price realization and mix, partially offset by a 4-point headwind from lower organic pound volume."; "Third-quarter net sales for the Pet segment increased 30 percent to $568 million, driven by favorable net price realization and mix and strong volume growth. Net sales results in the quarter included a 14-point benefit from the pet treats acquisition. Organic net sales were up 16 percent. Segment operating profit increased 8 percent to $111 million, driven primarily by favorable net price realization and mix and higher volume, including benefits from the pet treats acquisition, partially offset by higher input costs and higher SG&A expenses."; for fiscal 2022, "Constant-currency adjusted diluted EPS are now expected to range between flat and up 2 percent, driven by the higher outlook on adjusted operating profit. Adjusted diluted EPS were previously expected to range between down 2 percent and up 1 percent." emphasis supplied) GIS is my largest consumer staple position. The stock rose $1.55 in response to this report yesterday, closing at $64.23. Shortly before the report was released, JPM reiterated its neutral rating and reduced its price target to $64 from $67 (3/22), while GS reiterated its sell rating while raising its PT to $58 from $57 (3/16).
Manulife (MFC) reports strong 2021 results with record net income of $7.1 billion and core earnings of $6.5 billion, with double-digit growth in APE sales and new business value; Global Wealth and Asset Management net inflows tripled to $27.9 billion (All amounts are in Canadian dollars; Net income of $2.084B or $1.03 per share; core net income of $1.708B or $.84 per share with the consensus at $.811 per Fidelity ; core ROE at 12.7%; efficiency ratio at 49%) MFC is one of my largest life insurance stock holdings.
Toronto Dominion (TD)(This report is for the fiscal first quarter ending on 1/31/22; All amounts are in Canadian dollars; Reported E.P.S. at $2.02, adjusted to $2.08, up from $1.83 in the year ago quarter; Consensus on non-GAAP basis at $2.05; adjusted net income at $3.833B. TD is in the process of acquiring First Horizon (FHN) which I currently own. TD is currently my largest Canadian bank position)
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Putin sentenced Alexei Navalny to another 9 years in prison for surviving Putin's effort to murder him with the Novichok nerve agent. Russia Navalny: Putin critic given nine-year jail sentence in trial branded 'sham' - BBC News; Russia responsible for Navalny poisoning, rights experts say-UN News I am placing my own spin on this development. There is no independent judiciary in Russia.
The International Court of Justice ordered Russia to cease military operations in Ukraine since it was engaging in genocide. International Court orders Russia to ‘immediately suspend’ military operations in Ukraine-UN News; Summary of the Order on provisional measures
Russia’s Attacks on Civilian Targets Have Obliterated Everyday Life in Ukraine - The New York Times
One of the more recent crimes against humanity committed by Russia in Ukraine was the intentional bombing of a theatre where over a thousand civilians in Mariupol had taken shelter. On the grounds of the theatre, clearly visible from the sky, was a notice that children were in the structure and Russia went ahead and bombed it anyway.
The Russians also bombed a school in Mariupol where 400 civilians had taken refuge.
Retroville shopping mall in Kyiv, Ukraine destroyed by Russian bombs
96-year-old Holocaust survivor killed by Russian strike, memorial institute says - CNN
See explosion and gunfire in Kherson Ukraine amid peaceful protest Russia is not going to tolerate peaceful protests. One elderly protester was shot in the leg by Russian troops.
TASS military correspondent says Putin is sending army to ‘slaughter’ in Ukraine | Evening Standard
During Russia's assault on Grozny (1999-2000), civilians were intentionally targeted by Russia, including those who were trying to escape the carnage. The Tracking of Civilians: Interviews with Chechen Refugees in Georgia - Russian Federation | ReliefWeb Russia used thermobaric explosives against civilians, which are also known as vacuum bombs. Those bombs would first spray fuel oil on the first blast and then the second blast would set the fuel on fire. Chechnya Conflict: Use of Vacuum Bombs by Russian Forces | Human Rights Watch Russia used the same strategy in Syria. Syrians watch in horror as Putin deploys Aleppo playbook in Ukraine | CNN
Video and satellite images show that the Russians have turned most of Mariupol, a city where 450,000 people used to live, into rubble. Based on before and after satellite images, the current estimate is that Russia has destroyed more than 80% of the structures in this city. Civilian structures still standing are no longer habitable and will have to be demolished after the shooting stops. Bodies of civilians lay in the street or are buried where they were murdered by Russian soldiers. Ukraine says Russians bombed art school sheltering 400 in besieged city of Mariupol - CBS News; Smell of death, bodies in the streets: Fleeing Ukrainians recount 'hell' in Mariupol | The Times of Israel; Retired Gen. Petraeus explains how Ukrainians are taking out Russian generals Russia has proven that it can and will destroy hospitals with bombs and hit high rise apartment buildings with missiles.
Shocking aerial footage shows Ukrainian city 'reduced to ashes' - YouTube
I would note that Mariupol is largely a Russian speaking city. The Cruelest Irony: This Is How Putin Is Saving The Russian Speakers Of Ukraine (89.5% of Mariupol residents identified Russian as their native language) The only possible conclusion is that Russia is intentionally committing war crimes against a Russian speaking population.
U.S. government formally accuses Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine
Last Sunday, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Centre for Defence Management, gave Ukraine an ultimatum to lay down their arms and to surrender Mariupol to the Russians invaders. Mizintsev blamed "bandits" and "neo-Nazis" for the destruction of this once vibrant city. Russia demands Mariupol lay down arms but Ukraine says no - ABC News
A Putin Toadie, Dmitry Medvedev, who is the current the deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council and one of the Kleptocrats in Putin's inner circle, warned that Russia could start a nuclear war since the U.S. and its allies were playing a "primitive game" to humiliate and destroy Russia. His argument, reduced to its essence, is that a cold blooded murderer is the victim when punished. In Russia, everything is upside down. Corruption claims 'nonsense' - Russian PM Medvedev - BBC News; (4) Он вам не Димон - YouTube (English subtitles)
Earlier Medvedev threatened Poland who has taken in almost 2M Ukrainian refugees fleeing from Russia's invasion. Russia's chilling new threat to Poland as ex-President writes sinister letter - World News - Mirror Online; UNHCR - Poland welcomes more than two million refugees from Ukraine
Russian Soldiers Took Their City, Then Their Homes - The New York Times Videos of Russian soldiers ejecting families from their homes is included in the article. The residents were told that they would be immediately killed for merely possessing a cell phone. One Russian soldier told an 8 year old girl that the Russians were throwing them out of their home in order to liberate them from Nazis.
Putin told a cheering and Russian flag waving crowd last Friday that Russia's special military operation in Ukraine was a testament to Russia's "Christian values". Russia was simply trying to stop "neo Nazis and extreme nationalists" from committing "genocide". Putin’s speech at staged patriotic rally is abruptly cut off. Kremlin claims it was just a glitch - The Washington Post
So far, Ukraine has killed 5 Russian Generals and the Deputy Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Russian soldier death toll is over 10,000 now and will likely reach 30,000 by early summer. Russian general killed after Ukrainian forces destroy command post; What the Reported Deaths of 4 Russian Generals Mean About the Fighting in Ukraine | Military.com; Putin loses ANOTHER top commander: Black Sea Fleet captain, 51, is 'shot dead near Mariupol' | Daily Mail Online
As many as 40K Russian troops killed, wounded, held prisoner or missing: NATO | TheHill (3/23/22) What did Putin expect when he ordered the invasion? Ukraine is now united in their hatred of Russia, a hatred that will burn undiminished for at least a generation. What did Russia do when Germany invaded in WWII? This is not a difficult concept to grasp, except for Putin.
Report of 10,000 Russian Deaths Immediately Deleted by Pro-Putin Tabloid; Ukraine war: Russian newspaper publishes 9,861 soldier death toll – then deletes it | South China Morning Post (3/22/22) That number is probably substantially underestimated given the number of dead Russian soldiers whose bodies are left in destroyed vehicles or where they died. Ukraine claims that almost 15,000 Russian soldiers have died through last weekend.
How is Putin going to hide the body bags of Russian soldiers when they are returned; or to prevent Russian soldiers from telling people what they actually did in Ukraine? Maybe, Russia's "Parliament" will make it a crime, punishable by 15 years in prison, for a mother to ask what happened to her son.
Russian Troops Told Ukrainian They Would Protect Him After Their Sniper Shot Him
War crimes in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia
Russia portrays itself as the victim, which is normal for Russians. Everybody is out to get them and to take away their way of life. It is a delusionary mental illness created by Putin's propaganda. Filmmaker Maxim Pozdorovkin on the impact of Putin’s propaganda war - The Washington Post
Part of Putin's long standing propaganda campaign is a ridiculous claim that the West is trying to destroy Russia when the West responds to Russia's bad acts which is nonsense of course but that ridiculousness works on the intended audience. Russia could have chosen to have friendly ties and economic integration with the West, but Putin and his supporters prefer to self-destruct, send Russia spiraling into a Depression, and then wrap themselves into perpetual woe is me Victimhood. Perhaps they would enjoy nailing themselves to a cross.
Analyst breaks down how Ukraine is turning the tables on Russia - YouTube
Ukrainians claim to have destroyed large Russian warship in Berdyansk | CNN
Fox News Hosts Entertained Putin-Friendly Talking Points. Then Their Colleagues Were Killed in Ukraine. | Vanity Fair One Fox "news" anchor recently asked a guest whether Biden engineered the Russian invasion as a "distraction".
Russian foreign minister praises Fox "News" coverage of war in Ukraine I have to put "news" in quotes.
Republicans are starting to blame Biden for Russia's invasion. Many republicans who voted against the recent aid package for Ukraine say with a serious expression that Biden is not doing enough to help. Full List of 31 Republicans Who Voted Against Military Aid for Ukraine Flagrant and shameless hypocrisy is one of their most dominant personality characteristics.
GOP shrugs off Trump impeachment echoes in Russia-Ukraine war - POLITICO
A Chinese vlogger shared videos of war-torn Ukraine. He's been labeled a national traitor - CNN Facts are Fake News in China as well.
GOP drops any subtlety in centering the Jackson nomination fight on race - The Washington Post This should surprise no one.
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1. Corporate Bonds:
In the coming months, I am hoping that interest rates rise since I am primarily a bond investor now who has been unwilling to buy at the abnormally low yields that previously existed.
When building an investment grade corporate bond ladder, I will consider buying bonds from an issuer who has or soon will be redeeming another bond that I own.
That is the case with the FS KKR bond discussed below.
On 4/15/22, FS KKR Capital will redeem its 4.75% coupon SU bond:
I bought those two bonds at a total cost of 98.409. Item # 4.D. (5/6/20 Post) As mentioned in that post, I will not own more than 2 FSK bonds. While I now own 4, that is only for a few more days.
Bonds issued by pass through entities like BDCs and REITs IMO have an inherent elevated risk since cash flow is being used to pay dividends to common shareholders.
I have $47K in corporate bonds that mature later this year and will redirect all of those proceeds to new corporate bond purchases.
A. Bought 2 FS KKR Capital 3.4% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 96.04:
This detailed excerpt from my confirmations contains relevant information about this bond including its Baa3 credit rating from Moody's, or just one notch above the highest junk rating.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail The Finra page contains a price chart. This bond traded at over 106 in September 2021.
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.54%.
YTM at Total Cost: 4.54%, rounded up
Accrued Interest Paid to Seller: $11.71
I will receive that back when FS KKR makes the next semi-annual interest payment. As previously discussed, accrued interest that I paid to the seller will be included in my 1099 as taxable interest, which requires an adjustment in Schedule B. 2021 Instructions for Schedule B When I am an active bond buyer in the secondary market, the total accrued interest amount paid to bond sellers can be a meaningful sum.
I discussed paring my FSK common stock position in Item #2.M. below. The pare increased my dividend yield to 12.73%.
When I am willing to buy bonds, I will also frequently own the common shares.
Researching the credit worthiness of a bond involves a review of earnings reports and other documents that would normally be examined for just a stock purchase.
B. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 7/27/26 at a 99.181 Total Cost:
Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I own the common shares.
Credit Ratings: A1/BBB+
Bought at 99.081
Total Cost at 99.181
YTM at TC = 3.328%
Current Yield at TC = 3.15%
I selected this MS bond since 1 bond lots can be bought easily and I anticipate averaging down.
2. Small Ball:
A. Added to HR- Bought 5 at $26.5:
Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc.
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| Properties Page 1 |
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Bought 5 HR at $30.08 (9/24/21 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post.
HR is in the process of acquiring Healthcare Trust of America (HTA). The price decline since my last purchase was in response to that acquisition offer.
As noted in the preceding linked post, I own 70 shares of HTA with an average cost of $22.35.
Both HR and HTA have difficulty meaningfully growing cash available for distribution. I attribute that long term problem to buying properties from more than willing sellers at low capitalization rates and then selling stock and incurring more debt to finance the purchases.
My current plan is to keep the 10 HR shares and to eliminate my larger HTA position before the merger is consummated, reinvesting the proceeds into either HR or HTA senior unsecured debt.
HR Average cost per share = $28.29 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share.
The quarterly rate was $.30 in 2013. Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated Common Stock (HR) Dividend History | Nasdaq This REIT can not meaningfully increase the dividend since it is meaningfully increasing the cash available for distribution per share (see below).
Yield at AC per share = 4.38%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/25/21
Last Earnings Report ( Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
"Normalized" FFO = $64.591M or $.44 per share
Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) = $48.762M or or $.33 per share
For the Q/E 12/31/12, FAD per share was reported at $.31. Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Press Release
B. Bought 10 MPW at $20.31; 5 at $19.93:
Quote: Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
2021 Annual Report As of 12/31/21, MPW has "investments in 437 facilities and approximately 46,000 licensed beds in 32 states in the U.S., in six countries in Europe, across Australia, and in Colombia in South America."
Most of the facilities are hospitals.
Website: MPT | Home: At the Very Heart of Healthcare
Average cost per share = $20.18 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share, last raised from $.28 effective for the 2022 first quarter.Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) - Dividend History
Yield at $20.18: 5.75%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 3/16/22 (owned all as of)
Part of the 2021 Dividends Classified as ROC:
 |
| Excerpt from MPW IRS Form 8937 |
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Normalized FFO = $279M
Normalized FFO per share = $.47
2021 Normalized FFO per share = $1.75 ($1.036B)
2022 Normalized FFO per share guidance at $1.81 to $1.85
Reconciliation of Net Income to Cash Flow Numbers:
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.B. Eliminated MPW- Sold 63+ at $15.55 (11/14/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $187.01)
Last Buy Discussions: Item 2.C. Added 10 MPW at $12-Used Commission Free Trade (2/12/18 Post); Item # 5.A. Reinitiated Position in MPW with a 50 Share Buy at $12.85 (8/3/2017 Post) The lowest purchase price was probably at $9.84. Item # 4 Added 50 MPW at $9.84 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 2/12/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
MPW Realized Gains to Date: $1,582.11
C. Added to BRBS- Bought 5 at $15.9; 5 at $15.10; 10 at $14.90:
Quote: Blue Ridge Bankshares Inc.
10-K for 2021 This bank holding company has grown through a series of recent acquisitions (see pages 1-2)
There are no analyst estimates. The market cap at $15 is about $281+M.
5 Year Financial Data:
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Bought 5 BRBS at $16.49 (8/12/21 Post)
Average cost per share after adds: $15.44
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/18/22 after last buy |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Yield at $15.44: 3.11%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/18/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21 Post): SEC Filed Press Release
"The Company continues to grow its partnerships with fintech providers and ended the fourth quarter of 2021 with active partnerships, including Unit, Flexible Finance, Increase, Upgrade, Kashable, Jaris, Aeldra, Grow Credit, MentorWorks, and Marlette. Loans held for sale and loans held for investment related to fintech relationships totaled approximately $25.5 million and $10.3 million as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, while deposits related to these relationships were approximately $189 million and $42 million as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Interest and fee income related to fintech partnerships represented approximately $3.4 million and $680 thousand of revenue for the Company in 2021 and 2020, respectively."
Net Income: $12.793M
Net income in the 4th quarter and in 2021 was juiced by significant non-recurring income including $6.2M from terminating interest rate swaps, a $5.7M fair value in the company's investments and a $24.3 M gain from the sale of PPP loans as detailed in the following quote:
"Noninterest income for the fourth quarter of 2021 was $22.2 million compared to $13.5 million and $18.0 million for the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2020, respectively. Mortgage banking income, including mortgage servicing rights, contributed $5.9 million and $9.5 million of noninterest income in the fourth and third quarters of 2021, respectively, and $16.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the fourth quarter of 2021, the Company realized gains of $6.2 million on the termination of interest rate swaps that hedged interest rates on certain FHLB advances. Other income in the fourth and third quarters of 2021 included $5.7 million and $1.0 million, respectively, of fair value adjustments for the Company’s investments, primarily in certain fintech companies. Noninterest income for the year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020 was $88.0 million and $56.8 million, respectively. Noninterest income in 2021 included the second quarter gain on the sale of PPP loans of $24.3 million."
E.P.S. = $.68
NIM at 3.39%, down from 3.88% in the 2020 4th quarter
Operating Efficiency Ratio = 58.7%
NPL Ratio: .60%
NPA Ratio: .61%
ROA, ROE, and ROTE ratios juiced by non-recurring income items.
Total Capital Ratio: 13.11%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $13.01
2021 Net Income = $52.477M
2021 E.P.S. = $2.94
D. Eliminated SUNS - Sold 13 at $13.8:
Quote: Solar Senior Capital Ltd - An externally managed BDC
Profit Snapshot: $59.52
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.G. Restarted SUNS - Bought 10 at $15.61; 1 at $7.75; 2 at $6.9 (5/9/20 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 3/17/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SLR Senior Investment Corp. (SUNS) Announces Results
I had an unfavorable opinion about this report.
NII per share = $.22, adjusted to $.27 for merger expenses;
The consensus was at $.29, though it is unclear whether that excluded or included merger expenses
The quarterly dividend, paid in monthly installments, is $.30 per share;
Net asset value per share at $15.43, down from $15.91 as of 12/31/20
Other BDCs that I own have reported significant increases in NAV per share Y-O-Y.
SUNS is in the process of being acquired by the BDC SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC), which I own. I had a similar unfavorable reaction to the SLRC 4th quarter report. SLR Investment Corp. and SLR Senior Investment Corp. Announce Merger (12/1/21)("Under the terms of the proposed merger, SUNS shareholders will receive an amount of SLRC shares with a net asset value (“NAV”) equal to the NAV of SUNS shares that they hold at the time of closing. . . . For illustrative purposes, based on NAVs as of September 30, 2021 and including expected transaction costs and distributions, SLRC would issue approximately 0.7763 shares for each SUNS share outstanding, resulting in approximate pro forma ownership of 77.2% for current SLRC stockholders and 22.8% for current SUNS stockholders.")
Item # 4.C. Eliminated SUNS-Sold 62+ at $17.34-Used Commission Free Trade (5/8/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.16)
Item # 2.B. Sold Highest Cost SUNS Lot in Fidelity Account and Item #2.C. Eliminated SUNS in Schwab Account-Sold 112+ at $16.72 (3/27/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $30.98)
Item # 2.B. Sold 50 SUNS at $17.45 on ex-dividend date (3/1/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.48)
The IPO was at $20 per share in 2011, with net proceeds to SUNS at $18.6 before its expenses: IPO
SUNS Realized Gains: $299.14
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. That is the goal for all BDC positions. This goal was achieved for SUNS.
E. Pared CGBD - Sold 25+ at $14.46:
Quote: TCG BDC Inc.
CGBD has been a problematic holding for me since my first purchases proved to be at to high of a price.
CGBD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch Estimates for a BDC will be net investment income per share.
2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 23 and ends at page 53)
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: +$31.09
Average Cost per share this account after pare: $12.58 (98+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/2 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $12.71
Dividend: Quarterly at $.32 per share (regular only)
Yield at $12.58 AC per share = 10.17%, rounded down.
Net Asset Value per share history:
12/31/21: $16.91
12/31/20: $15.39
12/31/19: $16.56 8-K
12/31/18: $18.12 8-K
6/30/17: $18.01
The Initial Public Offering was in June 2017. The public offering price was $18.75. The external advisor paid 50% of the $.56 per share underwriters' discount. Prospectus
CGBD's offering expenses were then estimated at $1.8M or approximately $.20 per share.
After those net expense items, the net proceeds to the BDC were about $18.27 per share.
NII per share = $.40 in line with consensus
Net Asset Value per share = $16.91
The Board declared a regular dividend of $.32 per share and a special dividend of $.08.
"As of December 31, 2021, the total weighted average yield for our first and second lien debt investments on an amortized cost basis was 7.68%, which includes the effect of accretion of discounts and amortization of premiums and are based on interest rates as of December 31, 2021. As of December 31, 2021, on a fair value basis, approximately 1.6% of our debt investments bear interest at a fixed rate and approximately 98.4% of our debt investments bear interest at a floating rate, which primarily are subject to interest rate floors."
Portfolio Lien Characteristics:
The investment funds referenced in the previous snapshots have 100% and 87% weightings in first lien debt.
Internal Risk Ratings:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 10 CGBD at $13.95; 10 at $13.5; 10 at $12.6- Used Commission Free Trades (1/13/19 Post)
My average cost per share was then at $15.1.
I reduced the AC per share prior to this last pare by averaging down thereafter in small lots. The price range was from $4.54 to $12.89 starting in 2020. I reinvested the dividends through the January 2021 payment when the reinvestment price was at $10.94. The lowest reinvestment price was at $5.72 (4/15/20)
I still own my highest cost lots bought in 2018. Item # 1.B. Bought 10 CGBD at $16.2 and 10 at $15.7 10/21/18 Post)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
F. Eliminated SPTN: Sold 15+ at $29.01 in Fidelity Account; 20 at $31.05 in Vanguard Account; and 10 at $30.64 in Schwab Account :
Quote: SpartanNash Co. (SPTN)
SPTN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
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| 20 at $199.95 |
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| 10 at $99.01 |
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 SPTN at $21.36; 5 at $21; 5 at $20.5 (9/24/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21, last raised from $.20 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
SPTN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Q/E 1/1/22): SEC Filed Press Release I sold in response to this earnings report.
"Consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter were $2.09 billion compared to $2.25 billion in the prior year quarter, with the 53rd week of 2020 contributing $158.9 million of net sales to the prior year quarter. After consideration of the 53rd week impact, the increase in net sales was generated through higher comparable store sales within the Retail segment, continued growth among existing Food Distribution customers, and the impact of inflationary pricing across all segments, partially offset by lower sales within the Military segment."
Outlook:
G. Pared XOM - Sold 1.437 at $81.03; 1.878 at $85.48:
Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a small flavor of dividend growth.
XOM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I eliminated the remaining shares purchased with dividends and my highest cost 1 share lot.
Profit Snapshot: +$97.4
Average Cost per share this account: $38.18 (17 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/7/22 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $40.78.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share ($3.52 annually), last raised from $.87 effective for the 2021 4th quarter payment.
Dividend information | ExxonMobil
Yield at $38.18: 9.22%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/9/2022 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. $2.08
GAAP Net Income: $8.87B
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.05
Consensus at $1.94 per Fidelity
Capital and Exploration Expenditures: $5.808B
2021 cash flow from operating activities: $48B
XOM is a major holding in the ETF FENY and CEF PEO which I own.
Adams Natural Resources Fund (PEO) Portfolio-Morningstar
Fidelity® MSCI Energy ETF (FENY) Portfolio-Morningstar
I recently pare my FENY position: Item # 2.H. Sold Highest Cost 18 FENY (2/10/22 Post) That pare reduced my position to 100+ shares with an AC of $14.65 per share.
I have not discussed PEO in a long time. My current position is 276+ shares. I have been reinvesting the dividend. As of 12/31/21, PEO had a 15.9% weighting in XOM and 13.8% in CVX. I have been paring my PEO position but have not discussed those trades.
Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Overview; PEO Adams Natural Resources Fund- CEF Connect
H. Pared PARA- Sold 5 at $35.46:
Quote: Paramount Global Cl B Viacom recently changed its name and symbol to Paramount Global (PARA).
PARA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investor Relations - Paramount
Profit Snapshot: $.81
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. (12/3/21 Post) I discussed the 2021 third quarter earnings report in that post.
Average cost per share this account: $31.97 (50+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare |
Last Ex Dividend: 3/14/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Streaming revenue rose 48% to $1.3B Y-O-Y.
Paramount + subscribers increased by 7.3M to 32.8M.
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.26
Consensus at $.426
PARA missed the consensus estimate due to programming expenses associated with its streaming service Paramount +. PARA is creating far more content for its streaming service than Disney and charges about 1/3rd less per month.
GAAP E.P.S. at $3.05
GAAP earnings include $2.227B in gains primarily resulting from the sales of CBS Studio Center and a NYC office tower.
Why Paramount Global Stock Was Surging Higher Today | The Motley Fool (3/14/22). The Stock Jocks interpreted a comment made by PARA's CEO as expressing a willingness to entertain acquisition offers. The speculation is that Apple or Amazon may be the most natural acquirers.
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated VIAC in Schwab Account-Sold 107 at $40.18 (1/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $299.07)
I. Pared PAVE in Fidelity Account-Sold 3 at $27.21:
Quote: Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
Expense Ratio = .47%
Holdings at 99 as of 3/18/22
Profit Snapshot: $13.42
Last Discussed: Item # 2.Q. Bought 8 PAVE - Multiple Purchases with an AC at $22.38 (3/6/21 Post)
Average Cost per share this account: $22.17 (5 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $22.38.
Holdings Greater than 2% Weighting as of 3/18/22:
Dividends: Paid semi-annually and viewed by me as immaterial
J. Sold 1.029 CVX at $143.47:
Quote: Chevron Corp.
Closing Price 3/23/21: $165.86, up +$1.77
CVXAnalyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$41.17
Average cost per share after pare: $97.62
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| Snapshot Intraday on 2/28/22 after pare |
The AC in this account was reduced from $99.93.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.42 per share ($5.68 annually), last raised from $1.34 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
Yield at new AC this account: 5.82%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/15/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): Chevron (CVX) SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP net income of $5.055B or $2.63 per share which includes "asset sale gains of $520 million, losses on the early retirement of debt of $260 million and pension settlement costs of $82 million";
Non-GAAP net income of $4.9B or $2.56 per share with the consensus at $3.12 per Fidelity;
4th Quarter Sales and Operating Revenues = $45.861B and $155.606B for 2021
2021 free cash flow = $21.1B, a record for the company
2021 GAAP E.P.S. at $8.14, adjusted to $8.13.
"Net oil-equivalent production of 1.22 million barrels per day in fourth quarter 2021 was up 21,000 barrels per day from a year earlier. The increase was due to net production increases in the Permian Basin and the absence of Gulf of Mexico weather effects, partially offset by a 48,000 barrel per day decrease related to the Appalachian asset sale. The net liquids component of oil-equivalent production in fourth quarter 2021 increased 6 percent to 929,000 barrels per day, and net natural gas production decreased 9 percent to 1.73 billion cubic feet per day, compared to last year’s fourth quarter."
"The company’s average sales price per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids was $63 in fourth quarter 2021, up from $33 a year earlier. The average sales price of natural gas was $4.78 per thousand cubic feet in fourth quarter 2021, up from $1.49 in last year’s fourth quarter."
I own CVX in several accounts.
K. Added to VTRS - Bought 3 at $12; 2 at $11.2; 3 at $10.3; 2 at $9.9:
Quote: Viatris Inc.
The share price tanked in response to an announcement that it was selling its biologics business.
After reading several analyst comments, the negative reaction had more to do with VRTS selling is growth business rather than the price received for that business. For whatever reason, the Stock Jocks expressed immediate hatred for this deal as reflected in the price action.
Website: Viatris | Global Healthcare Company
VTRS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Eliminated VTRS in Vanguard Taxable - Sold 10 at $14.51(1/20/22 Post)
Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to VTRS in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 5 at $12.7; 5 at $12.5; 2 at $12.17 (12/22/21 Post); Item # 2.I. Added to VTRS-Bought 2 at $13.56; 5 at $13.13 (11/26/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly $.12, recently increased from $.11. Viatris Announces 9% Dividend Increase, Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Dividend - Jan 6, 2022
Last Ex Dividend:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at
Consensus at $.828 per Fidelity
GAAP Loss per share of ($.22)
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
4th quarter free cash flow: $325.7M
2021 free cash flow: $2.559.7B
Guides 2022 free cash flow to $2.5 to $2.9B
Select Product Sales:
L. Bought 1 GPC at $121.24:
Quote: Genuine Parts Co.
Company Website: Genuine Parts Company
Investment categories: Dividend growth/Large Cap Valuation
Genuine Parts Company Profile | Reuters
Genuine Parts Company Key Metrics | Reuters
GPC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 3/23/22, average E.P.S. is at $7.59; at $8.14 for 2023 and at $8.54 for 2024)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.895 per share.
Genuine Parts Company Announces 66th Consecutive Year of Increased Dividends - Feb 14, 2022 The dividend was increased by 10% to $3.58 per share from $3.26.
Yield at $121.24: 2.95%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/3/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations at $1.79
Consensus at $1.60
Revenues at $4.8B, up 13%
2021 Revenues up 14.1% to $18.9B
2021 Non-GAAP E.P.S. at
2021 Free cash flow of $1B
2022 Outlook: E.P.S. of $7.45 to $7.6 with revenue growth of 9%-11% and free cash flow of $1.2 to $1.4B
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (3/11/22): 3 stars with a FV of $133
Argus (3/2/22): Buy with a $150 PT.
S & P (2/17/22): 3 stars with a $135 PT
M. Pared FSK - Sold 9+ at $23.04:
Quote: FS KKR Capital Corp. - A BDC
FSK has been a problematic stock for me.
There was a 1 for 4 reverse stock split in June 2020. FS KKR Capital Corp. Announces Effectiveness of Four-to-One Reverse Stock Split For purchases made prior to that reverse split, it is necessary to multiply my purchase prices by 4 when comparing to the current price.
Website: FS/KKR Advisor, LLC – One of the largest managers of BDCs
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: $.34
Average Cost per share this account: $19.79 (69+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/2/22 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $20.19.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.63 per share (regular only) or $2.52 per share annually.
Yield at $19.79 = 12.73%, rounded down.
Last Ex Dividend: 3/15/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/21): FS KKR Capital (FSK) SEC Filed Press Release
Net investment income of $.66 per share with the consensus at $.608 per Fidelity;
Net asset value per share reported at $27.17, up from $27.14 as of 9/30/21 and $25.02 as of 12/31/20;
"As of December 31, 2021, investments on non-accrual status represented 1.9% and 3.9% of the total investment portfolio at fair value and amortized cost, respectively, compared to 3.7% and 5.1% as of September 30, 2021";
Eliminating the impact of merger accounting conventions, the "weighted average annual yield on all debt investments was 7.9%, compared to 7.5% as of September 30, 2021"
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
