Economy:
Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases
Housing market supply is 'stale' to end 2024
On 9/16/24, two days before the FED cut the Federal Funds range by 50 basis points, the ten year treasury yield closed at a 3.63% yield.
On 12/31/24, with two 25 basis points cuts, the ten year yield had risen to 4.58%.
A continued rise in intermediate and longer term rates will be a significant headwind IMO for major stock indexes that already have elevated P/E multiples. Stock Market P/E Ratios-Yardeni Research; P/E & Yields (trailing 12 month P/E for the S&P 500 at 25.41 as of 12/27/24, up from an already high 21.87 a year ago).
The 10 year treasury yield during the long term secular bull market that started around 1951 moved mostly in the 2.5% to 4.5% range, but that was up from less than 2.5% during the post WWII period (1945-1951) when the FED manipulated that yield far below the hot inflation rates (1946 at +8.5%, 1947 at +14.4%; 1948 at +7.7%, sourced from, Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; 10 Year Treasury Rate by Year - Multpl).
Starting in January 1951 through December 1965, the annual average total return for the S&P 500 (dividends reinvested), adjusted for inflation, was +13.138%. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment The total annual average total return for the S&P 500 starting in January 1966 through July 1982 was a -1.813%.
What was the defining characteristic of both periods? Inflation and interest rates
Starting in 1966, the ten year treasury yield, responding to higher inflation numbers, started to move out of its range bound movement below 4.5% starting in 1966.
It is just too early to know whether the recent slight move above 4.5% is the start of a long term trend higher or just a temporary blip.
10 Year Treasury Yields:
As of dates
CPI Annual:
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $10,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $10,000 in principal amount
Treasury Note Purchased at Auction: $1,000 in principal amount
Treasury Notes Purchased Secondary Market: $5,000 in principal amount (5 separate purchases ranging in maturities between 11/15/27 to 11/15/33)
I am buying more treasury notes in the 2027-2033 maturity range.
U.S. Common Stocks: +$1.828.83
Canadian Stock: +C1,188 (converted to US$820 for the allocation amount purpose)
Stock Funds: +$200
Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$2,848.83
Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bond (ELC): +$212
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$65,632.15
The total would be several thousand dollars higher if all trades were discussed in my posts.
10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 12/31/24: 2.34%
+++
Carroll Jury Verdict Upheld: Trump-Carroll Appellate Opinion.pdf
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit upheld the jury verdict in the first Carroll case, where the jury found that Trump had sexually assaulted Carroll by forcibly putting his fingers in her vagina and then defamed her by claiming she lied about the assault. The Second Circuit found no errors in how the federal district court handled the case with his evidentiary rulings.
Under NY criminal law, that conduct is technically not a rape which requires the insertion of a penis. Appeals court rejects Trump's challenge of sexual abuse verdict in E. Jean Carroll case - CBS News; Federal appeals court upholds sexual abuse verdict against Trump | CNN Politics The jury concluded that Trump did not rape her under that criminal law definition which was used by the Judge in his jury instructions.
However, when the district court judge dismissed Trump's counterclaim against Carroll, where Trump claimed that she defamed him by claiming rape, the district court found that the jury's finding of sexual assault as described above would commonly be viewed as rape, even though it technically did not fall within the definition used in the criminal code. Federal judge tosses Trump's defamation claim against E. Jean Carroll - CBS News
I view it as highly unlikely that the Supreme Court will hear an appeal. If they do, then the Republican Justices will lose even more credibility as jurists. There is no constitutional issue for the Supreme Court to review.
Upholding the first Carroll jury verdict will make it much harder for Trump to secure a reversal of the second verdict that included the $60M in punitive damages. The factual finding made by the first jury that Trump had sexually assaulted Carroll is deemed already proven in the second trial by virtue of the long standing legal doctrine known as collateral estoppel.
I do not believe that ABC should have settled the defamation case brought by Trump. A republican federal district court judge wrongfully IMO refused to dismiss Trump's defamation suit.
I suspect that the corporate types at Disney were concerned about what Trump would do to ABC and affiliated companies if the case had continued into Trump's presidency, particularly if Trump had been forced to sit through a deposition which was about to happen just prior to the settlement.
The only way to deal with a creature like Trump is never give in to him, fight him every step of the way, and then at least consider suing his lawyers for bringing a meritless claim. Trump’s many civil cases won’t stop just because he’s president. Here’s what to know | CNN Politics
My Videos: Second Circuit Hears Arguments on Trump's Appeal of First Carroll Jury Verdict - YouTube (predicting that the appeals panel would deny Trump a new trial and uphold the jury verdict); E J Carroll 2nd Defamation Case Trial Solely on the Issue of Damages - YouTube; $65 Million in Punitive Damages Awarded to Carroll - YouTube; Trump Repeats Statements Today About Carroll That a Jury Found Defamatory in May 2023 - YouTube (just an another example of his extremely poor judgment, only a fool would continue to repeat statements found to be defamatory by a jury)
++++
1. Canadian REIT:
A. Added 100 of DIR.UN at C$11.87 (IB Account)
Cost: $1,188 with C$1 commission
External Management Services provided by Dream Unlimited:
 |
| In C$ Thousands |
Sourced: 2023_DIR_Annual_Report.pdf at page 26.
As of 9/30/24, Dream Industrial owned 545 buildings totaling 71.9 million square feet of leasable space in Canada, Europe and the U.S.
Occupancy as of 9/30/24: 95.1% with a committed occupancy at 95.5%.
Claimed Net Asset value per share: C$16.73
All transactions on the Toronto stock exchange are in my Interactive Brokers account.
Website: Dream Industrial REIT
Last Discussed: Item #2 Bought 100 DIR.UN:CA at C$12.72 (3/28/24 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1 Eliminated DIR.UN:CA-Sold 200 at C$13.815 (1/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = C$653). In that post I also discussed a trade in the CAD priced units that netted a C$686 profit, but a tax reportable loss in USDs of $6.88, providing snapshots of the purchases. For a U.S. citizen and for tax reporting purposes, profits and losses are not measured and reported in a tax return using a foreign currency. The profit or loss is measured by converting the CAD cost into USDs when the security is bought and then again when it is sold.
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05833 per unit
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned 300 units as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
Dream Industrial REIT Reports Strong Q3 2024 Financial Results
Net Rental Income: C$90.5M, up 7.1%
FFO per unit: C$.26, up from $.25
I do not like how Canadian REITs adjust net income to arrive at FFO. The calculations lack the certainty of the GAAP depreciation expense adjustment made by U.S. REITs and are far too mushy IMO.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Sold 100 DIR.UN:CA at $11.92 (4/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = C$219); Item # 3.B. Sold 300 DIR.UN:CA at C$9.48 (4/2/2018 Post)(profit snapshot = C$389)
DIR.UN:CA Realized Gains to Date: C$1,947
Maximum Position: 300 units.
2. Small Ball Buys:
The small ball purchases summarized below are dividend paying stocks in currently unfavored stock sectors: Packaged Foods, Equity REITs, a chemical stock, a Canadian Integrated Energy, and a BDC.
Many of the BDCs have seen a significant rise in non-performing loans and BDCs in general are having their variable rate loans reset at lower coupons as short term rates fall.
Packaged food companies are generally experiencing negative or low volume growth, as prices increases resulting from the rapid input cost inflation starting in 2021 led to lower demand.
Equity REITs are viewed by many investors as bond substitutes. Their dividend yields become less attractive as intermediate term treasury yields rise, which has been the case starting last September.
Chemical stocks are in a bear market of uncertain duration, caused primarily IMO about demand concerns and input cost inflation that have resulted in lower earnings.
A. Added 5 GIS at $63.32:
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
Cost: $316.6
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $75.14 (9/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $92.68). I have now bought back those shares. I discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 8/25/24 in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
General Mills Investor Relations
GIS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
General Mills: Brands overview
Recent News: General Mills Announces Agreements to Sell Its North American Yogurt Business to Lactalis and Sodiaal (9/12/24) The cash transactions are valued at $2.1B. GIS intends to use the net proceeds for share repurchases.
New Average cost per share: $56.22 (40 Shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 12/24/24 after add |
This purchase raised my AC per share from $55.20
Dividend: Quarterly at $.60 per share, last raised from $.59 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at $56.22: 4.27%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/10/25
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 11/24/24)
Revenues: $5.2401B
Diluted E.P.S. = $1.42, up from $1.02
Adjusted E.P.S. $1.4
Second quarter results included certain timing benefits that are expected to reverse in the current quarter.
Those included "an increase in retailer inventory in North America Retail due in part to the Thanksgiving holiday shifting from the final week of the second quarter of fiscal 2024 to the first week of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, as well as favorable trade and other expense timing. These items represented approximately a 1.5-point benefit to net sales and a 6-point benefit to operating profit in the quarter."
The stock declined in response to this report based on a slight downward revision in fiscal 2025 guidance. The adjusted E.P.S. range was guided to -1% to 3% in constant currency, down from the earlier guidance of -1% to +1% in CC:
The guidance does not yet include the divestiture of the yogurt business or the acquisition of Whitehouse Pet brands.
GIS stated that the lower guidance was due to "increased investments to fund improved volume and market share trends". I do not regard that as a negative.
In the pet segment, net sales "were up 5 percent to $596 million, driven by higher pound volume, partially offset by unfavorable net price realization and mix. Organic net sales were also up 5 percent. . . Segment operating profit of $139 million was up 36 percent, driven primarily by HMM cost savings, higher volume, and lower other supply chain costs, partially offset by unfavorable net price realization and mix and higher SG&A expenses including increased media investment."
The entry into the pet food and treat business was kicked off by the 2018 acquisition of Blue Buffalo: General Mills Completes Acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products A list of acquisitions in this segment can be found here: General Mills Completes Acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands’ North American Premium Cat Feeding and Pet Treating Business (12/18/24).
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $68.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15); Item # 2.A. Pared GIS - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $68.17 (3/22/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.61, discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 2/25/24, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GIS in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2+ at $80.41 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.83); Item # 3.C. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $86.64 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $145.71); Item # 6.A. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $81.64 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.72); Item # 4.B. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $80.65 (9/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.89); Item # 2.B. Sold 2+ GIS at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $46.67); Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99). I did not track gains prior to 2007.
GIS Realized Gains 2007 to Date: +$3,043.95
SU Bonds Owned: I own 2 General Mills 4% SU bonds that mature on 4/17/25 that were bought at a 97.35 total cost: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Quotes:
USDs: Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
CADs: Cenovus Energy Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Cost: $145.1
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Website: Cenovus Energy is an integrated Canadian oil company
Average cost per share: $17.11 (50 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.18 per share
Dividends in USDs: CVE Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield: Impossible to calculate since the amount paid will depend on the then current CAD/USD exchange rate. The last 4 dividends in USDs totalled $.4936.
Foreign Tax Withholding: When paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account, Canada is allowed to take 15% of the dividend but no tax can be withheld when the dividend, paid by a non-pass through entity, is paid into a U.S. citizens retirement account under the existing U.S.-Canada Tax Treaty. The broker still needs to claim U.S. citizenship status at the source.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.E. Added to CVE - Bought 5 at $15.2 (12/19/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
D. Added to LXP - Bought 10 at $8.1:
Quote: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) - Internally Managed REIT
Cost: $81
Properties | LXP Industrial Trust
New Average cost per share: $8.35 (80 shares)
The AC was reduced from $8.39.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
LXP Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC = 6.47%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in my 12/26/24 post: Item # 1.L. Added to LXP - Bought 10 at $8.29 (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
E. Added to AHH - Bought 5 at $9.95:
Cost: $49.75
Management: Internal
SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 9/30/24
New Average cost per share: $10.53 (60 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.205 per share ($.82 annually)
AHH Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at New AC = 7.79%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/26/24 (owned 55 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a 12/26/24 post: Item # 1.G. Added to AHH - Bought 2 at $10.94; 5 at $10.55; 10 at $10.15 (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
F. Restarted FLO - Bought 5 at $20.56 - Schwab Account:
Recent History this account
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.
Cost: $102.78
Flowers is the second-largest producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the U.S. Our principal products include breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, and tortillas and are sold under a variety of brand names, including Nature’s Own, Dave's Killer Bread ("DKB"), Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Tastykake, and Mrs. Freshley’s." 10-Q at pages 38-39. R
Last Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated FLO -Sold 20 at $28.3 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.76)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.23 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Yield at $20.56: 4.67%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 10/5/24):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Net sales decreased .7% to $1.191B "as positive pricing/mix was more than offset by volume declines."
GAAP E.P.S. $.31
Depreciation and amortization non-cash expense was reported at $37.331M in the quarter which reduced GAAP E.P.S.
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.33
Reconciliation:
Some lawsuit settlements ($.49 per share) dinged GAAP results in the F/Q ending 10/7/23.
Full Fiscal Year Guidance: GAAP E.P.S. at $1.15 to $1.19, adjusted to $1.24 to $1.28 which was changed from the prior guidance of $1.2 to $1.3. The full year net sales guidance was given at $5.116B to $5.147B, representing .5% to 1.1% growth.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
G. Added to GSBD - Bought 5 at $12.74; 5 at $11.99:
Quote: Goldman Sachs BDC Inc. (GSBD) - Externally Managed BDC
Cost: $123.65
The last 5 share lot was bought on the ex dividend date.
As discussed in a recent post, linked below, this BDC has recently experienced an unacceptable increase in non-performing loans. If that trend continues, this investment will not be productive. For now, the dividend is covered by net investment income. The dividend yield at the current price is attractive and provides some compensation for the risk.
Average cost per share: $13.26 (30 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 12/31/24 after last add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)
GSBD Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $13.26 AC: 13.57%
Yield at last purchase price of $11.99: 15.01%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned 25 of 30 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a 12/12/24 post. Item # 1.D. Bought 5 GSBD at $13 (12/12/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release; 10-Q.
H. Restarted GTY - Bought 5 at $30.44; 5 at $29.8:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp. (GTY)
Cost: $301.18
I bought 5 just prior to the ex dividend date and 5 on the ex dividend date.
GTY is a "net lease REIT specializing in the acquisition, financing and development of convenience, automotive and other single tenant retail real estate. As of September 30, 2024, the Company’s portfolio included 1,108 freestanding properties located in 42 states across the United States and Washington, D.C."
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Getty Realty
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $45.65 and 20 at $35.69 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $211.35)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.L. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $25.95 (5/12/22 Post); Item # 3.C. Added to GTY-Bought 5 at $28.35; 5 at $27.76 (2/24/22 Post)
Average cost per share: $30.12 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share ($1.88 annually), last raised from $.45 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
GTY Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at $30.12 = 6.24%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/26/24 (owned 5 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
Revenue: $50.494M
GAAP E.P.S. $.27
FFO per share: $.56
AFFO per share: $.59
Reconciliation GAAP to AFFO:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 (legal proceedings and debt discussed at pages 12-17.
I. Added to FSPHX - Bought $100 at $29.65; 100 at $27.57:
Average cost per share: $27.51 (34+ shares)
The second purchase was after the fund went ex dividend for a $2 per share long term capital gain distribution which I took in cash:
Sponsor's website: Fidelity Investments
Expense Ratio: .65%
Top Ten Holdings as of 11/30/24:
FSPHX-Fidelity Select Health Care Fund-Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Fidelity Select Health Care Portfolio (FSPHX) Stock Dividend History & Date
J. Added to REYN - Bought 3 at $26.84:
Quote: Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)
Cost: $80.52
Brands | Reynolds Consumer Products
REYN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $27.16 (8 Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
REYN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $27.16: 3.387%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/15/24 (owned 5 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a 11/21/24 post: Item # 3.A. Restarted REYN - Bought 5 at $27.36 (11/21/24 Post)
Last Eliminations: Item # 2.A. Eliminated REYN - Sold 40+ at $29.64 (3/1/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.56); Item # 4.F. Eliminated Duplicate REYN in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 20+ at $32.55 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.96)
K. Added to WPC in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $54.7:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC)
Cost: $164.1
WPC is "focused on investing primarily in single-tenant, industrial, warehouse, and retail properties located in the U.S. and Northern and Western Europe, under long-term net leases with built-in rent escalations"
As of 9/30/24, WPC's "net lease portfolio consisted of 1,430 properties, comprising 172 million square feet leased to 346 tenants, with a weighted-average lease term of 12.2 year and an occupancy rate of 98.8%. In addition, the Company owned 78 self-storage operating properties, four hotel operating properties and two student housing operating properties, totaling approximately 6.4 million square feet."
Website: Leaseback Build-to-Suit Real Estate Finance | W. P. Carey
SEC Filed Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter Warehouse and industrial properties amounted to 63% of ABR, see page 11.
I am in an average down mode.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 5 WPC at $54.97 (7/5/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $59.34 (55+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.88 per share ($3.52 annually)
Yield at $59.34: 5.93%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Revenues: $397.775M
GAAP E.P.S. $.65
FFO per share: $1.18
AFFO per share $1.17
Net Income to AFFO Reconciliation:
Maximum Position this Account: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each Subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share.
Last Bond Offering (11/24): Prospectus for €600M 3.7% SU notes maturing in 2034.
WPC SU Bonds Owned: 16 (This is 6 more than I am supposed to own from one issuer. I am temporarily over that limit given the credit quality of the issuer and the fact that 10 of the 16 bonds mature on 2/1/25)
10 of the 4% SU Maturing on 2/1/25
6 of the 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
L. Added to LYB - Bought 1 at $73.65:
Quote: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A
Cost: $73.65
Chemical stocks are in a bear market of unknowable duration.
LYB Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
Products & Technology | LyondellBasell
New Average cost per share: $80.81 (8+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.34 per share ($5.36 annually), last raised from $1.25 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment.
LYB Stock Dividend History & Date
I am reinvesting the dividend.
A special dividend of $5.2 per share went ex dividend in June 2022.
Yield at New AC: 6.63%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/2/24 (owned 4 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 2.E. Restarted LYB - Bought 1 at $87.49; 1 at $84.81; 1 at $83.87 (11/7/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. (12/5/24 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated LYB - Sold 6 at $98.42 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.35)
Purchase Restriction: 1 or 2 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 20 shares
M. Added to GMRE - Bought 10 at $7.55:
Cost: $75.5
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $8.04 (62+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Yield at New AC: 10.45%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/20/24 (owned 42+ as of)
Last Earnings Report: I discussed this report in my last post. Item # 1.B. Added to GMRE - Bought 5 at $8.43; 5 at $8.96; 10 at $7.77 - Schwab Account (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
I will keep averaging down until I hit 100 shares.
N. Added to NTST - Bought 10 at $13.9:
Cost: $139
New Average cost per share: $15.2 (60 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
NTST Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC = 5.526%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/2/24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 10 NTST at $14.25 (12/26/24 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 2.A. Started NTST - Bought 10 at $16.43; 10 at $16 (12/5/24 Post)
I will keep averaging down in 10 share lots until I hit 100 shares, but each subsequent purchase will have to be at the lowest price in the chain.
3. Corporate Bonds:
A. Bought 2 Chubb 3.35% SU Maturing on 5/2/26 at a Total Cost of 98.48:
%205:2:26%203.35%25.png)
Issuer: Chubb Ltd. (CB)
CB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CB SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 4.511%
Current Yield at TC: 3.4%
B. Bought 2 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 4/1/2026 at a Total Cost of 98.704:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 4.558%
Current Yield: 3.456%
I now own 5.
Entergy Arkansas has an exchange traded first mortgage bond that I own. Entergy Arkansas LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI); Prospectus
Last EAI Discussions: Item # 5.C. Bought 10 EAI in Vanguard Account at $22.07 (8/2/24 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $21.7; 10 at $21.5; 10 at $21.27 (5/24/24 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $21.64 and Item # 6.B. Added 20 EAI in My Fidelity at $21.62 and Added 30 at $21.5 in my Schwab Account (12/30/23 Post); Item # 6.B. Added 5 EAI at $21.6 - Vanguard Taxable Account (12/16/23 Post); Item # 5. Added to EAI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.5; 5 at $21.22 (11/25/23 Post); Item # 5.B. Added 5 EAI at $20.1; 5 at $19.85 - Schwab Account (10/21/23 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $20.62; 5 at $20.36 (10/14/23 Post)
I prefer buying the $1,000 par value Entergy Arkansas FM bonds that mature within 3 years due to the interest rate risk issue.
C. Bought 2 Regency Centers LP 3.9% SU Maturing on 11/1/25 at a Total Cost of 99.267 -IB Account:
%2011:1:25.png)
Issuer: Operating entity of Regency Centers Corp. (REG) who guarantees the notes:
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.782%
Current Yield at TC = 3.929%
D. Bought 2 Comcast 3.375% SU Maturing on 8/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.243:
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Issuer: Comcast Corp. Cl A (CMCSA)
I have eliminated my common stock position.
CMCSA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CMCSA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A1
YTM at Total Cost: 4.5794%
Current Yield at TC = 3.4%
E. Bought 2 NNN REIT 3.6% SU Maturing on 12/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.832:
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Issuer: NNN REIT Inc.
I own the common shares.
Last NNN Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Added to NNN - Bought 1 at $37.63; 1 at $36.67; 1 at $35.32; 2 at $34.95 (9/30/23 Post)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.766%
Current Yield at TC = 3.68%
Other NNN SU Bond: I own 6 NNN 4% SU bonds that mature on 11/15/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org
My bond ladder process will generally cause me to extend the maturity as I come closer to bonds maturing from the same issuer, provided I remain comfortable with the credit risk.
4. Treasury Bills Bought at Auction:
All purchases were made in my Schwab account.
A. Bought 8 Treasury Bills at the 12/30/24 Auction - 2 Accounts:
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182 Day Bills
Matures on 7/3/25
Interest: $167.23
Investment Rate: 4.282%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 12/26/24 Auction:
Matures on 4/29/25
Interest: $27.96
Investment rate: 4.35%
A. Bought 1 Treasury 4.375% Note Maturing on 11/30/2030 at a Total Cost of 99.3174:
YTM: 4.507%
B. Bought 1 Treasury 4% Note Maturing on 2/28/30 at a Total Cost of 97.8532:
C. Bought 1 Treasury 4.125% Note Maturing on 11/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.398:
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YTM = 4.348%
D. Bought 1 Treasury 4.25% Note Maturing on 6/30/29 at a Total Cost of 99.2389:
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YTM: 4.438%
E. Bought 1 Treasury 4.5% Noted Maturing on 11/15/33 at a Total Cost of 99.3104:
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YTM: 4.595%
6. Treasury Note Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 1 Seven Year Treasury Note at the 12/26/24 Auction:
Matures on 7/1/31
Coupon: 4.5%
Purchased at 99.8099
YTM at 4.532%
7. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bond:
Investment category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Exchange traded simply means the bond trades like a stock on the stock exchange.
The rise in longer term interest rates starting last September is pressuring the price of potentially long term bonds down.
A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.29:
Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC Mortgage Bonds 4.875% Series due 2066 (ELC)
Cost: $106.45
ssuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Last Discussed: Item # 7.B. Added to ELC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.6 and Item # 7.C. - Added to ELC in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $21.78 (5/17/24 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $21.3 (1/6/2024 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to ELC Bought 10 at $21.93 in Vanguard Taxable; 5 at $21.78 and 5 at $21.6 in Schwab Account (12/23/23 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to ELC Bought 10 at $21.93 in Vanguard Taxable; 5 at $21.78 and 5 at $21.6 in Schwab Account (12/23/23 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on the $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
My Videos: First Mortgage Bonds Traded Like Stocks - YouTube; First Mortgage Bonds $1,000 Par Values - YouTube
Call protection has expired.
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)
Credit Ratings: A2/A
New Average cost per share this account: $21.64 (75 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 12/23/24 after add |
Yield at new AC = 5.632%
Last Ex Interest: 11/29/25 (owned 70 this account as of)
I currently have no concerns about the credit risk.
Interest rate risk is high.
I prefer owning the $1,000 first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy Louisiana that mature within five years.
I currently own the following, stacked with 4/1/25 to 4/1/28 maturities: $4,000 in principal amount
1 of the 3.78% FM that matures on 4/1/25; Bond Page | FINRA.org (This bond was originally issued by Entergy Gulf States Louisiana which was merged into Entergy Louisiana, see Item # 4.C. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.78% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/1/25 at a Total Cost of 98.633 (6/28/24 Post)(YTM at total cost then at 5.59%)
1 of the 2.4% FM that matures on 10/1/26; Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 of the 3.25% FM that mature on 4/1/28; Bond Page | FINRA.org
With a modest uptick in yields, I may buy at least 1 more of the 4/1/28 maturity.
B. Added ELC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.15:
See Item #5.A. Above
Cost: $105.75
New average cost per share this account: $21.27 (45 shares)
 |
| Snapshot as of close on 12.24.24 |
Yield at New AC this account = 5.73%
8. TIP Bought in Roth IRA Account - Secondary Market:
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Coupon 1.675%
Original Dated Date: 10/15/22 as a 5 year TIP
TIPS/CPI Query Results — TreasuryDirect
Matures on 10/15/27
Purchase Price: 99.234
Real Yield = 1.907%
Inflation Factor: 1.06537
Adjusted Principal Amount: 1.06537 x. 99.234
Principal Amount Paid to Seller: $1,057.21
I now own 2.
The prior purchase, made on 11/15/24, was at 99.695 with the inflation factor then at 1.06365 which is determined as of the settlement date on 11/18/24. The real yield was then at 1.733%.
The price had drifted down and the real yield up when I made the purchase on 12/24.
The 3 year nominal treasury note, the closest benchmark for comparison purposes, closed at 4.27% on 11/15/24 and at 4.36% on 12/24/24.
For a TIP purchased with a 1.907% real yield to outperform the nominal 3 year purchased with a 4.36% yield, the average annual inflation rate until maturity would have to exceed 2.453%.
On the day of purchase, 12/24, the five year TIP had a breakeven inflation rate of 2.39%.
I will only discuss TIP purchases in my RI accounts and no other trades.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
