Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Outflow Moderation Allocation Mutual Fund: $3,738
Realized Gains Moderate Allocation Mutual Fund: $1,778.68
Inflow Common Stocks: $1,316.85
Outflow Common Stock Sales: $2,859.77
Realized Gains Stock Sales: $272.07
Outflow Stock Fund (5 shares): $448.8
Realized Gain Stock Fund: $247.28
Net Outflow Stock Funds/Common Stocks: $1,991.72 (excludes $3,738 outflow from moderate allocation mutual fund, including that outflow the total outflow would be $5,729.72)
Net Outflow Leveraged Junk Securities CEF: $547.65 (realized gain at $48.25)
Outflow Bond ETF = $406.25 (realized gain at $3.77)
Inflow Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount
I am increasing my T Bill purchases as I slow down the purchase of corporate bonds with proceeds from maturing ones.
Inflow Corporate Bond Purchases: $4,000 in principal amount
Inflow Municipal Bonds: $5,000 in principal amount
Some of the recently received proceeds from maturing corporate bonds were used to purchase a municipal bond, rated at Aa1/AA+, maturing in 2031 with a YTM at my TC of 3.543%.
I am reducing my exposure to bond funds which was de minimis before I started to sell them and will probably eliminate my remaining shares.
A bond fund, unlike an individual bond, does not promise to return my original investment on a date certain. Consequently, a bond fund will produce barely nominal or negative total returns, unadjusted for taxes and inflation, when interest rates are rising and the value of the owned bonds are falling in value. The only option is to suffer through that process or to sell the fund shares at an unsatisfactory total return.
My video: Bond Funds - Disadvantages - YouTube
I avoid that result by owning individual corporate bonds bought at discounts to par value. Assuming the issuer survives to pay off the principal amount, I will receive back my original investment and a "profit" usually taxed as additional interest income rather than a short or long term capital gain.
I can hold all bonds purchased until maturity or early redemption, so I do not face the interest rate risk associated with having to sell a bond at an inopportune time.
I reduce interest rate risk arising from a long period of rising rates by keeping my weighted average duration near 3 years. Fidelity has the current duration at 3.042 years with a YTM of 4.624%, weighed down by a significant exposure to lower yielding Tennessee municipal bonds:
Fidelity provides considerably more information than my other brokers, which can be found at its Fixed Income Dashboard link. At that YTM, I can pay all of my living expenses, including extraordinary ones, afters taxes and reinvest the balance which would be about 50% of the total.
I also reduce the interest rate risk that I call the risk of lost opportunity by having a constant stream of maturities with multiple maturities every week using a ladder approach.
The risk of lost opportunity arises when I own bonds going down in price during a rising interest rate cycle. I lose the opportunity to buy higher yielding bonds with funds tied up in lower yielding ones. By having a constant flow of proceeds from redeemed bonds, I can invest the proceeds into higher yielding bonds in this kind of interest rate scenario.
Overall, my interest rate risk is light for those reasons.
I discussed how a weak dollar impacts my investments, inflation and GAAP reported earnings of U.S. multinationals in this video: Trump Defends Weak Dollar - How USD Value Impacts Investments, Inflation and GAAP Income - YouTube
As an example, I mentioned there how the rise in the Euro against the USD over the past 6 months has caused my USD priced ADR shares of Sanofi (SNY) to outperform the same shares priced in Euros. This is a chart of how the same stock priced in two currencies have performed over that period:
 |
| Blue Line SNY/Green Line FR:SAN |
FR:SAN: = 15.03%
Difference is due to the rise in the Euro's value against the USD.
If FR:SAN had gained 10% during that period, I could have sold my shares for a 20% price increase over that period.
Sourced: SNY | Sanofi ADR Advanced Charts | MarketWatch Enter FR:SAN symbol in the "compare" box.
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Trump’s 50% tariff on copper imports is set to start Friday. Here’s what could happen. - MarketWatch It is still unclear whether there will be any country exemptions. Copper prices in the U.S. have risen 13% since Trump announced this 50% tariff on 7/8/25.
Previously owned home sales in June drop 2.7%, seasonally adjusted and on an annualized based, as prices hit a record high Supply increased to 1.53 million units, up 15.9% compared to June 2024. The median sales price was $435,300. All cash deals were reported at 29%. NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.7% Decrease in June
Trump Tariffs Are Already Stunting World Growth - YouTube (Bloomberg YT Channel) This is inevitable and is not factored into equity prices IMO.
Jim Cramer: Earnings misses show consumers are feeling tariff impact
Trump: Global baseline tariff will likely be 15% to 20%
US-EU trade deal is ‘not a victory for anyone’ - YouTube The preliminary agreement is not a "trade deal" but the framework for one. It is already being criticized by many in Europe.
No Accident: Four Structural Reasons Why the EU Did Not Get a Better Trade Deal
I can understand why investors are relieved that the republican tariff tax will be 15% levied on exports from EU countries rather than the 30% threatened by Trump, which would have an embargo type impact on many European exports.
15% is still a tax paid by U.S. importers who will pass on all or as much as possible in their prices to U.S. consumers. Hardly something worth celebrating when the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending and consumers in the aggregate will reduce or even eliminate spending on many products, or substitute lower cost brands, when they perceive prices have spiked by too much.
I would note that the $750B in purchases of U.S. energy products over the next 3 years by European private companies is clearly a fantasy number. It is not even remotely possible given supply constraints and sales to non-EU nations that are already under contract as pointed out in this article. The E.U. to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy products. Why that’s ‘absurd.’ - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
European officials contradicted Trump's claim that there is a binding agreement to purchase $750B in energy products, to buy U.S. military equipment or to invest $600M in the U.S. The EU can not compel their private companies to invest in the U.S. or to purchase energy products, nor does the EU have the authority to compel EU members to buy military equipment. The two sides’ interpretations of the U.S.-E.U. trade deal are diverging already - MarketWatch (subscription publication); EU-US trade deal: The biggest losers and (a few) winners-POLITICO Another disagreement is whether the European pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. will be exempt from the 15% tariff and for how long. Pharma tariffs: Firms urge for clarity under EU-U.S. trade deal
EU countries have already increased purchases of LNG from U.S. firms as they reduce their reliance on natural gas supplied by Russia.
It is far from clear that the EU countries will approve the outline of a deal negotiated by the EU trade representatives. Donald Trump's Trade Deal Splits Europe - Newsweek It may be the best deal that the EU could negotiate to avoid the 30% tariff, but an alternative course may have improved the terms. The alternative would be to refuse an agreement on Trump's terms, allow the 30% tariffs to go into effect, retaliate with equal dollar amount tariffs on U.S. exports, and then see whether Trump is more amenable to negotiate given the markets reaction. This alternative strategy is not something that politicians are likely to follow, however, even if the pain is only temporary, because there is no certainty that it will succeed and the economic fallout would be immediate and severe.
Yale Budget Lab Says Trump Tariffs Will Mean Thousands in Costs for Families - YouTube
Trump trade talks: U.S.-China tariff pause not set, say Bessent, Greer The pause is set to expire on August 12th. Bessent told investors a few days ago that there was no need to worry about the punitive tariffs coming back that day.
Trump's Japan trade deal card was altered by hand Trump made this claim on "Truth" Social: "Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits." So the U.S. government is going to receive 90% of the profits from that investment according to Trump. The card prepared by Trump's Commerce Secretary showed $400B in investments. Japan says that the investment number is a "cap" and includes government loan guarantees. Trump claimed that the tariff rate was 15%, but the card shows 10% with 15% only "on the automotive, pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries." There is also no timeline on when the money will be invested in the U.S.
Since I do not view Trump as credible, and find it impossible to understand how anyone could, I will review the trade agreement with Japan and other countries when and if they become both final and binding to review the actual terms.
Trump unveils Indonesia trade deal framework (7/22/25) Trump calls frameworks for future negotiations trade deals. Maybe there will at some point be an agreement recognizable as a trade deal, but I expect many countries will simply drag out negotiations just to avoid the larger threatened tariffs being imposed this year.
Legal challenges to Trump's authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval are underway and may result in a Supreme Court ruling that he lacked authority. I doubt that the 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices, who are the foremost supporters of an Imperial President with Kingly powers will so rule.
A case is now pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. An appeal from a decision by that appellate court will be only to the U.S. Supreme Court. The lawsuit seeking to kill Trump’s tariffs is back at a terrible time for Trump | Vox
A panel of three judges on the U.S. Court of International Trade had ruled that Trump exceeded his authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 and enjoined their implementation. Court strikes down most of Trump's tariffs, ruling them illegal - CBS News (5/29/25)
The Appellate Court lifted the injunction, ordered expedited briefing and will hear oral arguments on 7/31/25. Trump's tariffs can stay in place for now amid legal battle, appeals court rules (6/11/25). As a reminder, it is Congress, not the President, that has the constitutional power to impose tariffs, so Trump has to find some law where Congress gave him the power to impose them.
I would emphasize that the U.S. is taxing it own companies and consumers with Trump's tariff taxes. Neither Indonesia nor companies exporting to the U.S. from Indonesia will be paying the 19% U.S. tariff. Tariffs are paid by the U.S. importer directly to U.S. Customs. The payment must be made prior to taking possession of products.
These Trade Deals Are Bad News for the US: 3-Minute MLIV - YouTube
$46 Trillion Investment Question | Thoughts on the Market This is an audio interview with Morgan Stanley's chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya. He noted that investment in U.S. securities by China peaked in 2013, and that the Morgan Stanley macro strategists are predicting another 8-9% decline in the U.S. Dollar by the second quarter of 2026. Discussed at Asian investors face $46 trillion portfolio dilemma with their U.S. holdings- MarketWatch (subscription publication). Among the issues that may cause Asian investors to reduce the investments in U.S. securities are the decline in the U.S. Dollars value against major foreign currencies, the safe haven status of the U.S. being questioned by more investors, increased political dysfunction in the U.S., a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth, the twin U.S. budget deficits and current account deficits, as a retaliation against U.S. bullying on trade, and a desire to diversify out of dollar priced assets.
Volkswagen cuts guidance after $1.5 billion hit from U.S. tariffs
Trump tariffs take $1-billion bite out of GM earnings, shares fall | Reuters
Treasury Secretary Bessent (7/23/25 in a Fox "news" Interview): "It used to be TDS was ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome.’ Now it’s ‘Tariff Derangement Syndrome,’ and the orthodox economics profession has once again embarrassed themselves." We shall see in the fullness of time.
UPS sees consumer sentiment ‘near historic lows’ hurting small-package deliveries - MarketWatch
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Fact check: Trump calls to prosecute Beyoncé based on a nonexistent $11 million payment I would challenge anyone to find a single republican politician who criticized that Trump threat even in the mildest of terms.
Trump unloads in late-night rants threatening to prosecute news networks, Beyonce, Oprah and Kamala Harris | The Independent There will never be a word of even the mildest criticism from republican politicians about Trump's fact free threats to prosecute people who are not the most slavish members of his cult.
Trump claims $20 million side pot in '60 Minutes' Paramount settlement (7/23/25)(bribery?); FCC greenlights Skydance/Paramount deal after CBS concessions - POLITICO (7/24/25); FCC shows that its holdup of the Paramount-Skydance merger was political all along - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
“The Whole Thing Is a Con Job” – Trump’s Windmill Rant at EU Presser - YouTube This is the Diaper Diplomacy website where Trump's words are put in the mouth of an animated baby. Other persons present are turned into babies as well with their facial gestures priceless as Trump talks. Tilting at windmills? Trump’s claims about turbines fact-checked; Fact check: Debunking Trump's false claims on wind energy – DW – 06/07/2025
Trump accuses Obama of treason over 2016 election probe, deflects Epstein question - YouTube; Trump threatens to ‘go after people’ and accuses Obama of treason over Russia investigation - YouTube
Obama's Response: "Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response. But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction. Nothing in the document issued last week undercuts the widely accepted conclusion that Russia worked to influence the 2016 presidential election but did not successfully manipulate any votes. These findings were affirmed in a 2020 report by the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee, led by then-Chairman Marco Rubio." Barack Obama Responds to Donald Trump's Russia 'Treason' Threats - Newsweek; Obama pushes back on Trump's 'outrageous' and 'bizarre' treason claim (noting correctly that Obama "never claimed that Russian cyberattacks impacted the election results" contrary to the false statement made by Gabbard)
Gabbard’s Russian interference claims directly contradict what other Trump officials have said
Tulsi Gabbard’s Russia Lies, Exposed
Trump might as well appointed Alex Jones as his Director of National Intelligence. The result would be the same or possibly even an improvement over Gabbard.
PolitiFact | Trump falsely twists Obama-era assessment of Russian election interference as a ‘coup’ Rated as Pants-on-Fire.
Presidential Pettiness - The Atlantic
Second whistleblower accuses Trump judicial nominee Emil Bove telling DOJ to defy federal courts - Alternet.org Bove, another former Trump attorney, was appointed by Trump to be the principal deputy attorney general. He was later appointed by Trump to be a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Republican senators are likely to confirm his nomination
GOP bill seeks to rename Kennedy Center for Donald Trump
Trump has already replaced the Kennedy Center board with his cronies or his mega campaign donors who then appointed Trump as the Chairman. Trump elected chair of the Kennedy Center by newly constituted board; President Trump elected chair of Kennedy Center by new board Newly announced members of the center’s board include top Trump aides Dan Scavino and Sergio Gor, Susie Wiles, and Allison Lutnick.
The Trumpification of this performing arts center has and will continue to cause many patrons to cancel their subscriptions and result in entertainers boycotting the venue. Kennedy Center sees ticket sales fall dramatically amid Trump intervention
Trump fired the executive director Deborah Rutter and appointed the MAGA loyalist and Fox News personality Richard Grenell who has no experience in entertainment as far I can tell based on reading his Wikipedia page. Executive Leadership & Artistic Partners | Kennedy Center He does have a masters degree in public administration from Harvard.
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Lewd Trump Photos May be in the Epstein Files, Witness Reveals - YouTube (Scrolling briefly through the comments to that video, most are the normal juvenile comments from Trumpsters) If the Michael Wolff is telling the truth about the photos of Trump that he describes in this video, I wonder whether the FBI has them in the "Epstein files", which would explain why Trump does not want the files released, or have they been destroyed while in the government's possession. If the photos still exist, they may open the minds of a handful of Trumpsters to Trump's real character rather than the imagined one now prevailing among so many.
Trump’s Epstein Connection: Stacey Williams Speaks Out - YouTube; FULL INTERVIEW: Epstein's Ex-Girlfriend Stacey Williams Claims Trump & Epstein Were 'Best Friends' - YouTube Ms. Williams claims that Trump sexually assaulted her in Trump's office.
Trump sends his former defense attorney Todd Blanche, now Deputy AG, to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell - YouTube Blanche represented Trump in the NY criminal case that resulted in 34 felony convictions. Deputy attorney general Todd Blanche, who defended Trump in hush money trial, named acting Librarian of Congress Blanche is also the Deputy Attorney General now. The Foul Stench of Todd “Carte” Blanche - YouTube Who is Blanche representing now the U.S. or Donald Trump?
To former prosecutors, everything about the Justice Dept. interview with Ghislaine Maxwell looked unorthodox - CBS News There is no reason why a Deputy AG would interview any witness when acting in that capacity.
My Video: Epstein Issues and the Epstein Grand Jury Transcripts - YouTube)
Epstein accuser Annie Farmer weighs in on political fallout over files - YouTube
Mark Epstein refutes White House claims about Donald Trump, Jeffrey Epstein Trump denies that he was ever in Epstein's office. Mark Epstein called Trump's representation a "blatant lie". Maria Farmer, Jeffrey Epstein Accuser, Details Donald Trump Interaction - Newsweek Farmer said she met Trump in Epstein's office.
Trump claimed that he did not send the Epstein a letter with a drawing of a naked woman. In support of that claim, Trump denied ever making drawings. Trump Insists He Doesn’t Draw, Amid Epstein Exposé. Here’s Proof to the Contrary
Trump denied that Bondi told him his name was in the Epstein files. Multiple sources claim that Bondi did in fact tell Trump his name appeared several times in those files. A decision was then made to keep the files secret. Trump was told by Bondi his name appeared multiple times in Epstein files: Report - ABC News; Trump was told his name is in Jeffrey Epstein files: WSJ
Trump has claimed at least twice that he was not told that his name was in the Epstein files. Trump Denies Being Told His Name Appeared In Jeffrey Epstein Files
What will Bondi say when asked during a congressional hearing under oath? If she did tell Trump and a decision was then made to keep the files secret, will she perjure herself to protect Trump when there may be multiple people who could contradict that sworn testimony.
She could lose her law license and be subject to criminal prosecution for perjury in that scenario, not while Trump is President of course, but when and if a Democrat is elected President in 2028.
The republicans will claim that any such future prosecution is a witch hunt of course, even if there is overwhelming evidence supporting the criminal charges against her. They do not look at the evidence before forming those conclusions provided to them by Trump and other republicans.
Trump deflects Jeffrey Epstein questions; Maxwell meets DOJ
Epstein Tapes: Trump Is "A Horrible Human Being" - YouTube
We Found One Of Jeffrey Epstein's Black Books Years Before The Recent 'Epstein Files' Controversy - YouTube; Jeffrey Epstein Blackmailed Bill Gates, Threatened to Expose Billionaire’s Alleged Affair - YouTube
Trump Redefines the Washington Scandal | The New Yorker "Trump's strategy to win back his base unintentionally reveals what he thinks of them—throw them lies, new made-up lies to supplant the old made-up lies, and package them with as much visceral hatred and crude racism as possible." This works on a sizeable segment of U.S. voters. Most republican senators and few republican House members know better but remain silent.
Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-IN) Battles CNN's Jake Tapper On Trump, Epstein Mullin claimed that President Obama gave Epstein his sweetheart deal in his first federal prosecution. This was a false claim that Mullin persisted in making, of course, even after being told the facts.
The deal was approved by the republican U.S. attorney Alex Acosta, who was appointed by President George Bush, and the deal was consummated when Epstein plead guilty to some charges on June 30, 2008, months before Obama was even elected to be President.
Those facts were, of course, meaningless to Mullin who persisted with his false narrative to deflect attention aware from his Dear Leader and the unquestionable and unchallengeable leader of the Republican Party. Mullin claims Obama oversaw Epstein sweetheart deal struck during Bush administration - Washington Examiner
We know for certain that republican politicians have learned a great deal from their Dear Leader. Perhaps the most meaningful lesson for acquiring and keeping power is that manipulating tens of millions with false information works and works even better by repeating the false information as true over and over, and, of course, never admitting that the demonstrably false representations are false no matter how much contradictory real evidence rebuts the false statement.
The only cure for this incurable problem is for those susceptible to being manipulated by demonstrably false information to first realize they are being misled in order for others to achieve wealth and power and then fulfill their obligations as U.S. citizens by learning accurate information. This will not happen except for a limited number of voters.
It would not have difficult for Mullin to discover the falsity of his claim about the Epstein non-prosecution agreement with a few seconds spent researching the issue, but why do research when a reality creation designed to manipulate the uninformed works so well.
I would add that Maxwell has filed an appeal to the Supreme Court of her felony convictions arguing that she was covered by the broadly worded 2008 non-prosecution agreement. Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell urges Supreme Court to overturn her conviction Her attorneys are correct in noting that there is a split among the appellate courts whether a non-prosecution agreement signed by one Federal District Attorney is binding on other Districts.
U.S. Solicitor General Brief at page 13.pdf The Solicitor General opposes Maxwells petition of certiorari, making a number of arguments in that brief. If the Supreme Court denies that petition, then Maxwell's convictions will stand. A grant of the petition means that the full Supreme Court will require briefs and oral arguments and a decision would not be likely until 2026.
Will the 6 Republican Justices grant the petition for certiorari and overturn Maxwell's convictions? They will make a lot of people really mad if they do.
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1. Mutual Fund Pares:
A. Sold 100 PRWCX at $37.38 - T. Rowe Price Account:
Quote: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview
Proceeds: $3,738
PRWCX is a moderate allocation fund that currently has a 5 star rating from Morningstar. T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Stock Price | Morningstar The ranking is based on comparison to other moderate allocation funds. The fund is closed to new investors.
PRWCX – Portfolio – Morningstar
Realized Gain: $1,778.68
Other 2025 Realized Gains: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 PRWCX at $36.75 - T. Rowe Price Account (7/3/25 Post)(profit = $1,715.68); Item # 1. Pared PRWCX - Sold 100 at $35.84. (6/5/25 Post)(realized gain was $1,624.69 for this lot); Item # 1.A. Pared PRWCX-Sold 100 at $34.98 (3/18/25 Post)(profit = $1,538.79); Item # 1 Sold 50 out of 1,003+ PRWCX at $35.66 (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $803.25)
2025 Realized Gains Snapshot: $7,461.09
2024 Realized Gain: Item # 1.A. Sold 50 PRWCX at $38.94 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $967.35)(subsequent to that sale, the fund went ex dividend on 12/18/25 for a $3.5922 per share dividend which reduced the price by that amount on the ex dividend day) This was my first sale.
Total Realized Gain 2024-2025: $8,428.44
Average cost per share: $22.36 (553+ shares)
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| Price as of close on 7/22/25 |
Unrealized gain = $8,314.11
Dividends:
PRWCX Stock Dividend History & Date
I have taken the distributions in cash for several years.
Per share Dividend/My Payment:
2024 = $3.5922 per share = $3,605.11 (ex on 12/18/24)
2023 = $1.4075 = $1,482.93
2022 = $2.8079 = $2,958.39
2021 = $3.41 = $3,592.76
Long term capital gain distributions have been a major source of dividend income for this fund.
B. Sold 5 VHCOX at $89.76:
Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund;Investor Overview
Proceeds: $448.8
Profit Snapshot: $247.24 ((7/23/25 trade only)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $87.51 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.99)
VHCOX – Performance – Morningstar Morningstar now has a 3 star rating on this fund. Over the past 1, 3 and 5 years, the fund has underperformed its "Large Blend" category. The rating is based on performance within that category.
Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)
VHCOX – Portfolio- Morningstar Lists top 10 holdings.
Average Cost per share remaining shares: $40.31 (45+ shares)
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| Price as of 7/23/25 close after pare |
Unrealized Gain as of 7/23/25: $2,248.76
There was no change in the AC per share since the average tax cost method is used. The AC per share would change only if I bought additional shares which I will not be doing.
Dividend: Annual at a variable rate. I have been taking the dividend in cash for several years.
VHCOX Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Annual Dividend (Paid 12/24): $6.6936 per share. I received $443.1 in cash.
Prior Annual Dividends During Ownership:
Per Share
2023: $1.81
2022: $5.86
2021: $8.76
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Sold 5 VHCOX at $86.62 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $231.54); Item # 1.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $91.2 (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot =$255.04); Item # 1.B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.69); Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73.02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35)
First Purchase: Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)
2. Eliminated Duplicate Position in WPC - Sold 30 in Interactive Brokers Account at 64.195 and 10 in Schwab Account at $64.2:
Quote: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) - Primarily a single tenant REIT that owns industrial, warehouse and retail properties. The focus is on industrial/warehouse.
Proceeds: $2,566.88
As of 6/30/25, WPC's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,600 properties comprising 178 million square feet with an average weighted lease term of 12.1 years. In addition to those properties, WPC owned 66 self-storage properties, four hotels, and two student housing properties.
Property Data as of 6/30/25:
 |
| Dollar amount in Thousands |
ABR = Annual Base Rent
REIT taxable dividends are still classified as Section 199A dividends that give the taxpayer a 20% deduction, described as "up to" 20% here: REIT All About It: One Big Beautiful Bill — Tax Updates for REITs | Paul Hastings LLP My deduction for Section 199A REIT dividends was at 20% last year.
WPC Tax Classifications for 2024 Dividends:
Section 199A: $3.067 rounded per share
For a 100 shares, the section 199A dividend would be $300.67 of which $240.54 would be taxable after the 20% deduction. The dividend is not qualified and would be taxed at ordinary income tax rates. The return of capital support for all four dividends was slightly more than $.16. That part of the dividend classified as ROC is not taxed as a dividend when paid and instead reduces the tax cost basis.
When sold for a profit, the ROC adjustments increase the capital gain compared to what would have been owed without any ROC adjustment. The ROC sourced components of the dividends can be turned into long term capital gains when the shares are sold with those adjustments after the 1 year holding period, however. A part of my long term capital gain was created in this manner. I did not do the calculation.
Stock Tax Information - W. P. Carey Inc.
Website: Leaseback Build-to-Suit Real Estate Finance | W. P. Carey
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.K. Added to WPC in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $54.7 (1/1/25 Post); Item # 1.A. Added 5 WPC at $54.97 (7/5/24 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to WPC - Bought 2 at $59.8; 1 at $58.55; 1 at $56.55; 1 at $53.87 (9/30/23 Post)
Profit Snapshots: $323.07
Average cost remaining shares: $58.98 (50+ shares)
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| Fidelity Account - Snapshot Intraday on 7/24/25 |
Yield at $58.98: 6.1%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (own all as of)
SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 3/31/25 and Supplemental
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): The second quarter report was released after the close on Tuesday 7/29.
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Revenues: $430.777M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.23
AFFO per share = $1.28
Reconciliation GAAP to AFFO:
Investments and Dispositions:
WPC Realized Gains to Date: $428.53
The other gains in taxable account, which were not discussed, were between $7.44 ant $15.76.
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A. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $26.8:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) - Classified as a Net Lease REIT
Cost: $134
Management: Internal
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added to GTY in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $28.79; 3 at $28.5; 2 at $28.35; 3 at $27.66 (7/3/25 Post); Item # 1.F. Added to GTY in Schwab Account-Bought 4 at $28.55; 5 at $28.3; 5 at $27.5 (4/25/25 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share ($1.88 annually), last raised from $.45 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
GTY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 6.68%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/26/25 (owned 17 in this account as of)
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $35.65 and 20 at $35.69 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $211.35)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Press Release and Earnings Presentation.pdf
Revenues: $52.724M, up from $48.27M
This report has an extraordinary expense of $5.341M in an accrual expense for environmental litigation.
Environmental litigation is described at pages 26-29 of the SEC Filed Annual Report Those lawsuits involve alleged discharges of petroleum products from gas stations owned by GTY.
Getty treats that accrual expense as an extraordinary item and adds it back to FFO in its AFFO calculation. The environmental expense in 2024 was $585,000 and $1.261M in 2023. SEC Filing at page 9
GAAP E.P.S. $.24
FFO per share: $.49, down from $.55 in the 2024 2nd quarter
AFFO per share: $.59, up from $.58
2025 AFFO per share guidance: $2.4-$2.41 from $2.38-$2.41.
"As of June 30, 2025, the Company had $925.0 million of total outstanding indebtedness consisting of (i) $750.0 million of senior unsecured notes with a weighted average interest rate of 4.1% and a weighted average maturity of 5.5 years, and (ii) $175.0 million outstanding on the Company’s unsecured revolving credit facility, of which $150.0 million bears interest at a fixed rate of 6.1%."
Occupancy: 99.7%
Weighted average lease term: 10 years
There are no debt maturities prior to 2028.
B. Added 5 FBRT at $10.49; 5 at $10.25 -Schwab Account:
Cost: $103.7
Externally Managed Paper REIT
FBRT SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 5 and ends at page 22)
FBRT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Risk: High IMO, as also reflected in the dividend yield
New Average cost per share: $10.59 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.355 per share ($1.42 annually)
FBRT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $10.59: 13.41%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned 10 as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and nothing further to add here. Item # 3.A. Started FBRT - Bought 10 at 10.8 (6/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
The company will release its second quarter report on 7/30. I will briefly summarize that report in a comment.
The recent price trend indicates some investor concern about this upcoming report.
C. Added 10 LXP at $8.25; 10 at $7.95 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP)
Cost: $162
Management: Internal
Website: LXP Industrial Trust - Preeminent single-tenant U.S. industrial REIT
Properties | LXP Industrial Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New average cost per share: $8.34 (80 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday after last add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
LXP Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC per share this account: 6.475%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned 60 as of this account)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.B. Bought 15 LXP at $8.36 - Fidelity Account (7/3/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Sell Discussions: Over time, this REIT has proven to be a poor long term investment but I have so far at least successfully traded shares. Item # 1.I. Pared LXP in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.53 (8/2/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.61); Item # 2.D. Eliminated Duplicate Position in LXP - Sold 20 at $10.29 - Fidelity Account (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.25); Item # 1.D. Eliminated LXP - Sold 20+ at $11.57 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.37); Item # 1.C. Sold 137+ LXP at $9.08 and 53 at $9.06 In 2 Separate Roth IRA Accounts (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $914.11); Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment- profit of $271.9 referenced with no snapshot)(snapshot in Gateway Post for Equity REITs); Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $224.65); Item # 1.B. Eliminated LXP - Sold 155+ at $9.46 (6/26/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.37); Item # 1.B. Sold 108+ LXP at $9.45-Used Commission Free Trade (2/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.9);; Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $80.19); Item # 1. Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.4); Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14)(profit snapshot = $51.76)
LXP Realized Gains to Date: $1,989.
10 Year Average annual total return through 7/22/25: 5.38%
Total return includes the reinvestment of dividends but is not adjusted for inflation and taxes.
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
The 10 year average annual return would have been worse if LXP had not sold most of its office properties in 2018. Lexington Realty Trust Announces Disposition of 21 Office Assets for $726 Million to Joint Venture
The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 7/30/25. I am not expecting to be excited by that report. It will likely be more of the same.
D. Added 5 COLB at $23.45 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc. (COLB) - Bank Holding Company
Cost: $117.27
I bought this lot the day before the second quarter earnings release.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (net realized gain snapshots = $73,543.05)
COLB "is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington and is the parent company of Columbia Bank (dba: Umpqua Bank) with over $50B in assets. Branches are located in 8 states.
The Umpqua name originates from Columbia's acquisition of Umpqua Holdings in 2023. Columbia Banking System and Umpqua Holdings Corporation Complete Merger
COLB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 1 COLB at $20.31 (5/27/23 Post) Regional bank stocks had a rough 2023 after 3 mid-sized banks were seized by the FDIC after deposit runs, starting with Silicon Valley.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.D. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Position in COLB - Sold 15 at $25.55 in Vanguard Account (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.91)(discussing this bank's poor interest rate management IMO of owned securities); Item # 1.F. Pared COLB - Sold Highest Cost 10+ Shares in Fidelity Account at (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.05)
New average cost per share this account: $21.45 (35 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 7/24/25 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44)
COLB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $21.45: 6.71%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/30/25 (owned 30 in this account as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Investor Presentation (A map of branches, around 300 in eight states, can be found at page 4). Most of the branches are in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. $.73, up from $.57
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.76, up from $.67
Importantly, as reflected in the table, net interest margin is trending higher.
NPL Ratio: .47%, up from .41%
NPA Ratio: .35%, up from .3%
Charge off Ratio: .31%, down from .32%
Total Capital Ratio: 13%, up from 12.2%
Net Interest Income: $447.552M, up from $428.434M
Average non-interest bearing deposits to total deposits: 31.67%
Cost of interest bearing deposits: 2.52%, down from 2.97%
Cost of interest bearing liabilities: 2.78%, down from 3.31%
COLB Acquisition of PPBI: COLB is in the process of acquiring Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI). Columbia Banking System to Acquire Pacific Premier Bancorp, Expanding the Premier Business Bank in the West (4/23/25) I own 50 PPBI shares:
 |
| Up $1.41 on 7/25 |
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 PPBI at $20.83 - Schwab Account (5/2/25 Post);
This is an all stock acquisition, so the PPBI stock price will closely track the COLB price. That will generally occur until investors become concerned that the acquisition will not happen due to regulatory opposition.
The shareholders of both companies have approved of the merger.
Schwab Account COLB Position: I also own 25+ COLB shares in my Schwab Account:
 |
| Up $1.47 on 7/25 or 6.3% |
Realized Gains COLB: Net of +$239.92
This stock has been in a bear market which has proven problematic for generating gains. I am now slightly more optimistic about the future but far from enthusiastic. The stock was trading well over $50 in March 2021. I have managed so far to trade my way to a net realized gain + the dividends.
The quick breakdown in early 2023 was in response to the rapid Silicon Valley Bank collapse failure after a massive deposit run.
During the stock market meltdown in early 2023 in response to the pandemic, the price declined from around $40 in January 2020 and bottomed in the $20-$22 channel range (March-September 2022) before rebounding as reflected in the chart above.
The Near Depression period bottom was in the $5-$6 range in April 2009. For banks that survived, that proved to be the optimal time to buy. A good chunk of my realized gains in this sector originated from 2009 buys. Profits have been much harder to generate over the past 15 years.
E. Restarted COLB in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $24.38:
See Item # 3.D. above
Cost: $243.75
Yield at $24.38: 5.908%
F. Added to DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $17.63:
Quote: Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC)
Cost: $176.3
Healthpeak is a component of the S&P 500.
As of 6/30/2025, DOC through its operating subsidiary has interests in 702 properties. Most of the operating income is generated by medical office buildings and laboratories:
 |
| Dollars in thousands |
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 41
I eliminated a small ball duplicate position in HR (Item # 7.B below) and used the proceeds to buy this 10 share lot. HR is currently not supporting its dividend with funds available for distribution ("FAD"). The Healthpeak dividend exceeds FAD.
Healthpeak acquired Physicians Realty that had the DOC symbol and took that symbol after the merger was completed on 3/1/24. The symbol lists to the right uses the DOC symbol to link Physician Realty trades where I realized gains of $656.33, last discussed at Item # 1 (1/20/24 Post)
The DOC-PEAK reference in the symbol column links discussions of Healthpeak Properties Inc. both prior to and after the symbol change from PEAK to DOC.
DOC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Website: Home-Healthpeak
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added to DOC - Bought 10 at $16.75 (5/30/25); Item # 2.C. Added to DOC - Bought 10 at $17.18; 10 at $17 (5/16/25 Post); Item # 1.B. Started DOC in Schwab Account - Bought 50 at $17.61 (5/2/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.G. Eliminated PEAK-Sold 15 at $31.08 (3/6/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.01)
Average Cost per share this account: $17.39 (100 Shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 7/25/25 after add |
Dividend: Monthly at $.1017 per share ($1.22 annually)
DOC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I changed my dividend option to reinvestment effective for the next payment.
Yield at $17.39 AC: 7.018%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/18/25
Next Ex Dividend: 8/18/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and Supplemental (debt listed at page 16)
Revenue: $694.348M, down from $695.504M
Since there were no property sales other than a land parcel during the quarter, the decline in revenues, when many of the leases have escalators, indicates some leasing weakness.
The diluted share count was reduced to 695.194M from 703.268M as of 6/30/24.
Occupancy and Revenue by Property Category:
GAAP E.P.S. $.05
FFO, as defined by NAREIT, per share: $.43
FFO adjusted per share at $.46
AFFO per share $.44
GAAP to Adjusted FFO:
Adjusted FFO to AFFO
The AFFO is the most meaningful cash flow number IMO since non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention ($5.401M) is deducted from adjusted FFO as are maintenance expenditures ($25.729M) Pretend cash is not available to support the dividend, neither is money used for routine maintenance which is a major ongoing expenditure for REITs that own office buildings and similar structures.
2025 Guidance: Adjusted FFO per share $1.81-$1.87
This REIT does have a number of in progress developments and redevelopments that will add to revenue over the next year or so:
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| Page 18, Supplemental |
Maximum Position: 300 shares (risk assessment, valuation, dividend yield and relative safety of the dividend factor into a maximum position calculation)
The maximum position excludes shares owned in RI accounts.
Goal: When I start off with a 7% dividend yield, I will be satisfied with an annual average total return of 9% or higher.
Owned DOC SU Bonds: 8
When I own the common stock, I will frequently have a much larger dollar position in the SU bonds bought at discounts to par value.
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%20+$95.2.png)
%20$15.76.png){kind=small}
%20+$34.26.png){kind=small}
%20+$37.5%20.png)
Realized Market Discount: $274.94
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
Cost: $67.73
Management: External
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Monthly Cash Flow Generation
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
New average cost per share this account: $14.15 (70 shares)
I am averaging down in this account until I hit 100 shares.
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at $14.15: 8.48%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/21/25 (owned 65 this account as of)
Fidelity Account Position: 30 shares with an average cost per share of $6.76:
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| Price as of 7/25/25 Close |
Yield at $6.76: 17.75%
Equity Preferred Stock: I also own a GOOD equity preferred stock, GOODN, in several accounts including 25 shares in my Fidelity Account with an AC at $16.51:
Yield at $16.51: 9.46%
Calculation: .0625% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.5625 annual dividend payment per share ÷ $16.51 average cost per share = .09464%.
GOODN makes monthly dividend payments.
I discussed this REIT in my last post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 1.A. Added to GOOD in Schwab Account - Bought 10 at $14; 5 at $13.8; 10 at $13.7 (7/22/25 Post)
I. Started GOOD in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $13.56:
See Item # 3.H. above.
Cost: $135.59
Yield at $13.56: 8.85%
Maximum Position in all Taxable Accounts: 300 shares
Current Position all taxable accounts: 110 shares
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 at the 7/23/25 Auction:
%2011:25:25%20.png)
Matures on 11/25/25
119 Day Bill
Interest: $69.83
Investment Rate: 4.344%
B. Bought 10 at the 7/28/25 Auction:
%201:29:26%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 1/29/26
Interest: $208.29
Interest will be taxable in 2026 when held to maturity. I am starting to shift the tax recognition of income into 2026 based on what I now project to be my tax bracket in 2025. This shifting will accelerate with 3 month T Bill purchases starting in early October and more 4 more bills starting in September.
Investment Rate: 4.266%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 7/28/25 Auction:
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91 Day Bill
Matures on 10/30/25
Interest: $53.53
Investment Rate: 4.34%
4. Tennessee Municipal Bond:
A. Bought 5 Murfreesboro, TN 3% GO Bonds Maturing on 6/1/2031 at a Total Cost of 97.15:
Emma Page
Credit Ratings: Aa1/AA+
YTM at Total Cost: 3.543%
Current Yield (Tax Free): 3.088%
Optional Call Date: On or after 6/1/29
Municipal bonds do not have make whole provisions. When the bond can legally be called prior to its maturity, the issuer only has to pay value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
I have 5 Murfreesboro Water/Sewer revenue bonds maturing on 6/1/2026 that are also rated Aa1/AA+.
I have 10 municipal bonds that will be redeemed early on 9/1/25. I try to keep my annual tax free interest close to $8,000 which requires me to replace bonds that are called early or about to mature.
The profit will be taxed as ordinary income rather than a capital gain under the de minimis rule.
The financial condition of Murfreesboro was improved when it sold its electric distribution system to Middle Tennessee Electric Cooperative for $245M. The initial payment made in 2020 was for $43M. The remainder is paid in equal annual installments over 15 years with 3.3% interest paid on the remaining balances.
My primary reasons for owning municipal bonds are diversification in my bond portfolio, tax free income that restrains my movement into a higher marginal tax bracket, call protection for 10 years after issuance, and the overall quality of the bonds that I own.
5. Leveraged Junk Securities CEF:
A. Eliminated JQC - Sold 100 at $5.48:
Quote: Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund Overview - a CEF
Proceeds: $547.65
Leveraged: Yes at close to 37%.
Profit Snapshot: $48.25
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Pared JQC - Sold 40 at $5.71 (6/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.93)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.B. Added to JQC - Bought 10 at $5.08; 10 at $5 (11/11/23 Post); Item # 1.F. Added to JQC - Bought 20 at $5.07 (8/12/23 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to JQC - Bought 10 at $4.94 (6/17/2023 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.054
Some ROC support.
Last Ex Dividend: 7/15/25
Data Date of 7/23/25 Trade:
Net asset value per share: $5.67
Closing Market Price: $5.46
Discount: -3.7%
Average 3 Year Discount: -8.67%
Sourced: JQC - CEF Connect
Realized JQC Gains to Date: $684.18
Largest Annual Gain: Net of $587.09 in 2012
 |
| 2012: 1,004+ shares |
My Consider to Restart: <$4.8 provided there is no recession
6. Bond ETFs:
A. Eliminated FALN - Sold 15 at $27.1 - Schwab Account:
Quote: iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF Overview
Proceeds: $406.55
Sponsor's website: iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF
Expense ratio: .25%
The term "fallen angels" refers to a bond that had been downgraded from investment grade to junk.
12 month trailing yield as of 7/24/25: 6.2%
Effective duration 4.9 years
For a bond fund, the general rule of thumb is that the net asset value will go down or up by multiplying the percentage change by the duration. Understanding Duration | PIMCO
Credit Quality:
Profit Snapshot: $3.77
Last Discussed: Item # 8.F. Eliminated FALN in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $27.11 ( )(profit snapshot = $15.85)
7. Small Ball Common Stock Sales:
A. Pared GMAB - Sold 2 of 17 at $23.61 - Schwab Account:
USD ADR Quote: Genmab A/S ADR (GMAB)
Danish Krone Quote: Genmab A/S (Denmark: OMX)
Danish Krone to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Proceeds: $47.23
DKK/USD on 1/20/25: .137759
DKK/USD on 7/25/25: .156918
DKK Gain During Trump's Second Term: 13.78%
When looking at that data, I know that the USD priced ADR has meaningfully outperformed the ordinary shares priced in DKK over the past 6 months.
GMAB: Up 12.5%
DK:GMAB Down 1.06%
Sourced: Genmab A/S Advanced Charts | MarketWatch That is a link to the DK:GMAB chart. To compare the return with the USD priced ADR, just enter GMAB in the "compare" box.
Genmab is a Danish company whose primary revenue source is royalties for Darzalex that had sales of $3.237B in the 2025 first quarter, up $545M compared to the 2024 first quarter. The company reported earlier this month that net sales in the second quarter increased to $3.539B, SEC Filing.
The company has other approved drugs that are licensed to major pharmaceuticals with the next most important one being Kesimpta licensed to Novartis.
The company also has a pipeline of drugs in clinical trials. Pipeline | Genmab
 |
| As of 2025 1st Q |
ADR Ratio: 10 ADRs = 1 Ordinary Share
GMAB analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
GMAB SEC Filings (foreign firm forms)
Genmab A/S_SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Completion of Share Buy-back Program - Genmab A/S (6/30/25)
Genmab Takes Full Control of Acasunlimab Development Program - Genmab A/S
Profit Snapshot: $3.75
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Added to GMAB - Bought 5 at $20.84 (12/19/24 Post)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.G. Started GMAB - Bought 10 at $21.74 (12/12/24 Post)
When I first discussed this purchase, my opinion, which is based on zero medical knowledge and consequently no more than a hunch, was that the stock price largely reflected the anticipated royalty income from the two most important approved compounds, primarily Darzalex, but only minor contributions from the co-owned marketed products Epkinly with Abbvie (B- Cell Lymphomas) and Tivdak with Pfizer (cervical cancer) whose combined sales did increase 56% to $123M in the first quarter from $79M in the 2024 first quarter. And the hunch was that very little, if any of the current price IMO, based on no medical knowledge, reflected major future contributions from the pipeline.
My "feel" for the stock price is that no more than one of the co-owned marketed drugs and the solely owned pipeline drugs will ever achieve blockbuster status, generating billions in revenues during the patent protection period.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
The LT classification is simply based on my total lack of knowledge necessary to assess the potential for the co-owned and pipeline drugs and consequently no ability to make an informed judgment.
New Average cost per share: $20.98 (15 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 7/24/25 after pare |
The average cost per share was reduced from $21.07.
Dividend: None and none expected.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release The report discusses the progress of the pipeline drugs. Of the Genmab owned drugs in late stage trials Acasunlimab for non-small cell lung cancer and Rinatabart Sesutecan (Rina-S) for platinum resistant ovarian cancer are the furthest along.
2025 1st Q. Investor Slide Presentation.pdf (Rina-S discussed at page 8-9)
Diluted E.P.S. = US$3.05 or $.305 per ADR share
Revenue: $715M
Of that revenue number, $589M was generated by royalties:
Marketable Securities, Cash and Cash Equivalents: $3.226B
2025 Outlook:
B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HR - Sold 9+ at $16.09:
Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR)
Proceeds: $147.26
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $10.32
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added to HR in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $15.94 (7/15/25 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release and SECFiled Supplemental
I own 110+ HR shares in my Fidelity account with an average cost per share at $17.3. I am trying to dig myself out of a hole, ignoring once again the First Law of Holes.
The second quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on 7/31/25. I am not expecting the FAD per share will cover the quarterly dividend paid during the second quarter. A continued failure to cover the dividend with FAD per share can easily result in a dividend cut.
C. Eliminated HZO - Sold 4 at $24.6:
Proceeds: $98.4
I did not like the second quarter earnings report. I will consider restarting a small ball position at <$18.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Restarted HZO - Bought 2 at $22.24; 1 at $21.95; 1 at $21.17- Schwab Account (5/9/25 Post)
Website: MarineMax | New & Used Boat Dealer In The USA | Boat Dealerships, Marinas, Service, & More
HZO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $10.8
Prior Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated HZO - Sold 11 at $42.29 (8/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.67)
Dividend: None and none expected.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filing
Net Loss of $52.1M, includes a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $69.1M
GAAP E.P.S. = ($2.42), down from $1.37 in the 2024 second quarter
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.49, down from $1.51.
Consensus non-GAAP at $1.17, see MarineMax Shares Sink After Earnings Fall Well Below Estimates - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
"Revenue in the fiscal 2025 third quarter declined 13.3% to $657.2 million from $757.7 million a year earlier, primarily due to lower new boat sales partly offset by stronger used boat sales and growth in many of the Company’s higher margin businesses. Same-store sales were down 9% compared with the prior year."
The goodwill impairment charge was "associated with the Company’s manufacturing segment. The impairment charge was required due to the decline in the Company’s market capitalization in the quarter, combined with a decline in the manufacturing segment’s performance due to the challenging environment."
8. Corporate Bond Purchases: $4K in principal amount
Until I have a better feel on the inflation impacts of a weak dollar and the republican tariff taxes, I am going to try and limit myself to purchasing corporate bonds maturing prior to 2029.
I mentioned earlier in this post the information provided by Fidelity about my bond portfolio in its Fixed Income Dashboard which is very helpful in managing my bond ladder. The information includes owned Treasury Bills, T Notes, CDs, corporate bonds and Tennessee municipal bonds. This is a list of securities that will mature on 8/1/25 through 8/8/25 and is indicative of my bond ladder approach:
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| $23,000 in principal amount |
The treasury bill is for $10K. The 2 Sherwin Williams bonds are 2 bond lots. The Affiliated Managers SU position is 4 bonds. The CD is $2K in principal amount which I had forgotten about. Norfolk Southern is a 2 bond lot. The Public Service of New Mexico position is a 1 bond lot. I also own several of those corporate bonds in other accounts.
I included only the far left column from the Fidelity Fixed Income Dashboard since the next column has my account number.
After the account number column, the next columns in order are the Cusip number, quantity owned, coupon, maturity date, call status/call date, credit ratings from Moody's and S&P, the third party current price, market yield, accrued and unpaid interest, and an action box that allows me to enter buy and sell orders for the bonds and treasuries. So this is easily the best broker that I have for this kind of information.
A. Bought 2 Blue Owl Capital 3.125% SU Maturing on 4/13/27 at a Total Cost of 96.621:
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Issuer: Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
This bond was originally issued by Blue Owl Capital III, a private BDC, that was acquired by Blue Owl Capital.
As I reminder, I view BDC SU bonds to have two major risks that are inherent in their business: (1) high risk loans primarily to private companies and (2) payment of all or almost all net investment income as dividends to the common shareholders. I have not yet suffered a default in a BDC issued SU bond.
This purchase also shifts interest income tax recognition into 2026 and 2027 as explained more fully below.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa3
YTM at Total Cost: 5.205%
Current Yield at TC: 3.243%
Current Blue Owl Capital Maturity Stack in Fidelity Account:
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| Snapshot Intraday on 7/24/25/Third Party Prices as of 7/23 |
I had 2 Blue Owl Capital bonds mature on 7/22/25:
%20+$53.74.png){kind=small}
I mentioned in a recent post summarizing the purchase of a Blue Owl Credit Income SU bond, a privately owned BDC, that I had 10 Blue Owl Capital or Blue Owl Credit Income SU bonds that matured earlier this year, realizing a market discount of $274.8 as shown in "profit" snapshots therein. Item # 3.D. Bought 2 Blue Owl Credit Income SU 9/23/26 at a Total Cost of 97.575 (7/15/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.232%)
Overall my dollar exposure is down some and the maturities for the currently owned bonds are within 14 months.
Generally, for these Blue Owl Capital or Blue Owl Credit SU bonds, the YTM at the time of purchase is higher than similarly rated bonds issued by non-pass through entities, and a significant part of my interest income comes from the realized market discount when redeemed.
Purchasing at a discount for a bond maturing in 2026 or later, when a significant part of the interest income through realization of the market discount is delayed until the bond is redeemed, is a means to shift income tax recognition out of 2025 into a subsequent year. That is partly achieved as well by the following: (1) the current yield is below the yield of the MM fund used to purchase the bond and (2) only 1 semiannual payment will be made this year and about 1/2 of that is accrued interest that I paid the seller that will be deducted from the 10/13/25 semiannual payment.
B. Bought 2 Black Hills 3.15% SU Maturing on 1/15/27 at a Total Cost of 98.143:
Issuer: Black Hills Corp. (BKH) - Utility Holding Company
BKH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.474%
Current Yield at TC: 3.21%
I now own 4 bonds.
I own 10 Black Hills 3.95% SU bonds that mature on 1/15/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org I will be holding those until redeemed by the issuer. I am starting to replace those bonds prior to their upcoming maturity.
I am also shifting some tax recognition of income into 2026 and 2027. The next coupon payment will be in January 2026. The profit of $37.14, taxed as interest income, will be recognized in 2027 assuming no early redemption.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I also published a companion video to this post:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzjLx5RJncU
The USD gain in value today as Chairman Powell threw some cold water on a September rate cut. The odds of a 25% basis point cut is now less than 50% down from 94.7% a month ago.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
I bought the 119 day T Bill at auction today. The investment rate was 4.329%. The maturity is on 12/2/25.
The recent auction rates for T Bills maturing in September through December time frame have not been consistent with a Fed rate cut and have been signaling no cut at either the September or October meetings.
I believe the FED members, other than the 2 appointed by Trump who support a rate cut now, will want to see the July and August inflation numbers before doing anything. I am expecting an uptrend to start in late summer.
On 7/1/25, Bessentnt claimed that a trade deal with India was very close.
I noted today that Trump threatened India with a 25% tariff effective on 8/1 plus a penalty for buying Russian oil that is not yet specified.
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/30/nx-s1-5455876/trump-india-tariff-trade
In TrumpWorld, a "trade deal" is an outline of an agreement that may or may not result in an actual trade deal. For those broad outlines for a possible trade agreement drafted so far, several disagreements about the terms soon appeared (EU, Vietnam)
After the close today, Trump announced a "full and complete" trade deal with South Korea:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/trump-announces-trade-deal-with-south-korea-setting-tariffs-at-15percent.html
I would emphasize that the U.S. is taxing its own companies and citizens with these tariffs.
Trump said SK “will give to the United States $350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President.” SK described that fund as "facilitating the active entry of Korean companies into the US market in industries where we have strengths, such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, secondary batteries, biotechnology, and energy.” That does not sound like SK is giving the U.S. the money and allowing Trump to invest it as he chooses. But I will need to read the "full and complete" trade deal when it is published to determine the veracity of Trump's description.
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After reporting earnings after the close today, MSFT, a DJIA component, is experiencing a good rally in after hours trading:
Microsoft Corp.
After Hours
$558.21 $44.97 +8.76%
Last Updated: Jul 30, 2025 at 7:19 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/msft
I own a few MSFT shares. They are just not in a brokerage account. I have the share certificate at my home plus split shares and shares purchased with dividends held by Computershare, the custodian used by MSFT for reinvestments when the owner has the stock certificate. I have had the position for over 25 years or thereabouts.
META also reported and is up a lot in after hours trading as well:
Meta Platforms Inc.
$775.73 $80.67 +11.60%
Last Updated: Jul 30, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/meta?mod=search_symbol
Thanks for the updates!
ReplyDeleteYou seem pretty sure that an uptrend, inflation is going to start showing up.
I haven't been doing anything for the last week or so but watching.
Land: Some of most significant tariff impacts so far have been in earnings reports, as large companies have taken hits related to the tariffs. Ford estimated today a $2B tariff hit this year.
Deletehttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-ends-de-minimis-loophole-on-imports/
Large companies can absorb the tariff taxes for a limited period before they have to raise prices to recoup them. It is not like any company can absorb them for long.
Prices increases are coming.
https://www.axios.com/2025/07/30/trump-tariffs-adidas-tide-pg-prices
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/29/business/tide-charmin-price-increases
For companies like P&G, the price increases will be gradual.
As much of the tax as possible will be passed to consumers through higher prices, though the process may take up to a year for the large publicly traded companies who are severely impacted by the tariff taxes.
Coffee and orange juice prices will skyrocket if Trump proceeds with the 50% tariff on exports from Brazil. Some of the more immediate pass throughs will be in perishable food items.
The big public companies are not going to be forthcoming about the amount of pass through to avoid being targeted by Trump.
Smaller firms can not absorb the tariff taxes without an immediate pass through in consumer prices. They have to have the capital to pay the tariff before taking possession of the products.
I have seen some forecasts predicting CPI will hit 5% next year. My best guess is 3.75% to 4.25% by the 2026 second half. I am expecting increases in CPI, last reported at 2.7% annual rate through June, in the remaining reports this year. My best guess is 3% to 3.2% for the 12 months ending in December.
June Inflation report:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
I noticed the 70% increase in the premiums paid for my auto, home and umbrella insurance policies for the 2 year period ending in July 2024. I generally recognize that other prices have increased but I have no idea by how much.
I thought, for example, that the bag of snickers that I bought today at Krogers was much higher in price than a year or so ago, but maybe it was a $1 or $2 or $3 higher, if $3 that would be close to a 30% price hike. I may need to take out a loan to buy a bag of butterfingers. Krogers had none to buy today. Both are part of my essential food groups.
I wonder how much smaller a can of tuna fish can be? I remember the days when it was 7 oz, and a meal for 2 adults and 2 kids.
ReplyDeleteIf CPI goes up, will interest rates go up too? Or does not necessarily happen? We could enter stagflation where purchase prices go up, but interest paid on saved money doesn't or goes down like it's a recession?
70% on insurance... That's insane. I think my car insurance isn't that different, but my homeowners is.
Last month I paid my last mortgage payment. Yipee. Now I'll notice the homeowners more when I make the payment directly.
Butterfingers are an important member of the food groups. A 30% increase would be impactful. Plus it's not like there's a generic option that's good enough.
Land: The insurance rates for those 3 policies rose 70% even though I have never had a claim on my home built in 1982 or the umbrella policy, and only one claim over a decade ago on my car when someone hit my bumper in a parking lot. I have had no speeding tickets, etc.
ReplyDeleteLand: When there is more production of a commodity than demand for it, the price will generally fall. The clearest case involves energy products but it can happen with other commodities like cocoa beans that the U.S. imports. Excessive production could lead to a partial offset of the tariff tax. The general historical reaction of producers is to curtail production in response to lower prices created by excessive supply.
There are many products where the U.S. imports almost all of its needs which is the case for products like coffee, vanilla and cocoa. The largest exporter of vanilla beans to the U.S. is Madagascar that was threatened with a 47% tariff on 4/2.
It does not necessarily follow that a spike in inflation will cause intermediate and longer term interest rates to rise. The FED has proven that it can suppress longer term rates below both the current and anticipated inflation rate.
Another reasons is that bond investors may view the inflationary impact as transitory, a term used by Powell to explain why the Fed did not raise rates in 2021-2022 and why the FED kept the extremely stimulative monetary policies of Q/E and ZIRP until March 2022 when the annual CPI rate hit 8.5%. The word transitory needs to be banned from the Fed’s vocabulary Those extremely abnormal monetary policies are stimulative to the economy, and partly responsible for the inflation surge in 2021-2023, as would cutting the FF rate later this year when inflation is rising.
Longer term, I am expecting treasury rates will rise due to supply outstripping the demand, requiring higher rates just to clear the supply to pay off maturities and to fund the budget deficits. The crossover point may be in about 5 to 7 years but it is too early to be specific on the time frame.
Once problematic inflation happens, it is not like prices are going to go back down, but will only moderate their increases in response to the FED starting an interest rate increase cycle and/or conditions that contributed to problematic inflation (e.g. supply chain disruptions in 2020-2022 and excessive money creation) being resolved. Inflation caused by the republican tariff taxes will remain as long as the higher tariffs remain.
Stagflation is a real threat now since a multitude of factors are coalescing that make that scenario more likely.
The republican tariff taxes are one source. The tariffs will also cause product shortages to develop; particularly for products using metals that are subject to 50% republican tariff taxes.
U.S. companies rely heavily on those imports of steel, aluminum and /or copper. Many U.S. companies will not have the capital to pay the tariff tax just to gain possession of the imported product or to sell their products that heavily use steel, copper and/or aluminum in the manufacturing process at prices that will recoup the tariff tax sufficiently that they can remain in business.
The mass deportations will reach a level where there will be supply chain shortages created by a lack of people to perform essential tasks particularly in agriculture.
The new tax cuts will add to demand at a time when product shortages are becoming more material.
The end result could easily be inflation and economic stagnation as the bottom three quintiles in household income, already battered by high inflation in 2021-2022 that is still embedded in prices, will have no choice but to reduce or eliminate in many cases their discretionary spending and to cut back spending on even essential items. Currently stock investors are giving this scenario a zero percent chance of developing IMO.
Thank you!
DeleteIn an unexpected move, probably due to industry pressure, Trump issued an executive order that exempted raw copper, copper ores, concentrates or scraps from the 50% republican tariff tax. That tax will apply to semi-finished products and to copper intensive items like cables and electrical components.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-address-the-threat-to-national-security-from-imports-of-copper/
Discussed at
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/why-us-copper-tariff-exemption-wont-fully-ease-price-rises.html
Trump's Executive Order does require "25% of copper input materials (such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes, and anodes) produced in the United States to be sold in the United States – starting at 25% in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028 and 40% in 2029.
The U.S. has exported those products in the past due to limitations on refining. Some of those exports will be refined in Mexico and then shipped back to the U.S. Why? It is a very long process and expensive to build a copper refinery in the U.S. due to a variety of factors including citizen opposition, local government opposition to permits, and environment hurdles including frequently extensive litigation that holds up the start of construction.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-07-13/the-trouble-with-copper-tariffs/
There are currently only 3 copper smelters located in the U.S.
Grupo Mexico, Hayden, Arizona
Rio Tinto, Garfield, Utah
Freeport McMoRan, Miami, Arizona
There is a new facility in Georgia that is focused on recycling.
Then there is the problem of whether copper prices remain high enough to build a new expensive refinery and whether the next President will reverse Trump's tariff policies on copper, allowing semi finished product back into the U.S. at much lower than 50% tariffs. There will be considerable pressure from copper users to reverse Trump's 50% tax for non-exempt products in 2029.
The 50% tax is still going to hurt U.S. users of copper since products subject to that tariff tax will still have to be imported to meet demand.
The copper tariff tax is not as bad as feared with the exemptions but it is questionable whether the refineries contemplated in Trump's EO will be built with production starting within 10 years.
Looks like, today the market noticed that it's August 1st and decided to react to the tariffs. Still mildly with a blue skies forever hopefulness.
DeleteThe republican tariff taxes will significantly increase the stagflation odds as would the FED cutting interest rates when inflation is moving higher.
DeleteThe market is probably reacting more to the weak July jobs report that increases the odds of a FED rate cut even when inflation is rising.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
While the 73K in new jobs was weak, the scary part of the report was that both the May and June numbers were revised down by a combined 258,000. The May new jobs number was revised to just 19,000 and June to another barely positive 14,000. To the extent there were new jobs in July, and not revised later into negative territory, those jobs were concentrated in one industry - healthcare.
I have stated in the past that an early signal of a recession on the horizon is a weak jobs report and major revisions in the prior 2 monthly reports.
An interest cut is not going to help since the problem is structural and created by the current administration. Those new structural headwinds including the U.S. tariffs, foreign country retaliations to U.S. tariffs, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants who fill important roles in the supply chain, and mass firings of federal government workers.
And interest rate cuts are not a freebee to the economy in that savers will have less interest income to support spending.
Perhaps Trump will honestly explain why the 2024 average monthly job gains was at 186,000 and now the gains are consistent with the movement into a recession:
" Employment up 256,000 in December 2024; average gain of 186,000 jobs per month in 2024"
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/employment-up-256000-in-december-2024-average-gain-of-186000-jobs-per-month-in-2024.htm
Thanks for the explanation!
ReplyDeleteLooking at my
ReplyDeleteDATA references are as of 11:00 CDT pm 8/1
The reason is that interest rate are declining in a flight to safety.
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury
$95.49 +$0.89 +.94%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ief
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
$109.40 +0.73 +0.68%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lqd?mod=search_symbol
My Fidelity portfolio is extremely heavily weighted in corporate and municipals bond. Fidelity currently has my "bond" allocation at 88.7% which includes bonds, treasury bills as well as a few CDs and short term T Notes.
The stock allocation as of yesterday was at 7.5% with the sweep account at 2.3%. I have over the past few weeks increased the funds in that MM fund due to selling some intermediate term corporate bonds and by not reinvesting proceeds from maturing corporate bonds ($9K in that account on 8/1/25)
I am in a holding pattern for new corporate bond purchases until I have a better feel for the how much Trump's policies will increase inflation. For now, I am selling far more than I am buying, and I am not redirecting the proceeds from maturing corporate bonds into new purchases. With close to 400 individual corporate bonds owned in all accounts, I am not in a hurry to increase the weighting. I counted them at 384 as of the date of my 7/22/25 post.
I also have a number of stocks that are up so far today, mostly in the bond like stock sectors, including many of the equity REITS and energy infrastructure stocks: CUBE, ENB, EPRT, GTY, HR (UP 6.08% in response to an earnings report), NNN, NTST, SBRA, PINE, TRP, and WPC. The stock portion of this portfolio is currently down about $180. Some of the packaged food stocks, which are in a bear market, are gaining.
I checked my Schwab Account to calculate how much I have driven the portfolio into a capital preservation mode with income generation. I may have gone a bit overboard with a 65% weighting mostly in T Bills purchased at auctions, a purchased treasury MM fund, and cash in my sweep account waiting to be used in next week's T Bill auctions. In my next post I will be discussing $25K in T Bill purchases through next Monday in the Schwab account and probably about the same amount in the post after that one. A significant part of the allocation is in Tennessee Municipal bonds and short term T Notes. That allocation seems like I could take more risks.
I will be averaging down today in some beaten up dividend stocks - small purchases only.
My Vanguard and IB accounts are in capital preservation mode with income generation. Common stock positions are at less than 5%.
In my last comment, I left out of the first line "my Fidelity Account" so the corrected version reads Looking at my Fidelity Account".
ReplyDeleteI published a video late this afternoon discussing the jobs report, a false statement made by Trump, his firing of a career government employee since he did not like the jobs report, and my observations that Trump is solely responsible for the weakening job market and the inflation increases that are about to happen IMO due to his policies.
Our Dear Leader wants to blame Powell, one voting member of the FED, for the problems that Trump has created which are structural and unlikely to be remedied by cuts in the FF rate. If the cuts start to happen when inflation is rising, intermediate and longer term rates could rise, making matters worse, not better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVSnwcZiKdc
Cutting rates while inflation is rising, you're describing as making matters worse. It looks like it would start to invert the yield curve again. But meanwhile the market's rallying on the idea that rate cuts are coming. I assume they're focused on lower rates being easier on businesses especially small businesses. Without taking into account the inflation environment it may be happening in.
DeleteI checked my 4 taxable accounts this morning and all were up on 8/1. The largest gain was $2,135.09 in my Fidelity account, which has my largest weighting in bonds. The smallest gain was in my Schwab account that has the largest weighting in stocks.
ReplyDeleteI did lighten up last week on my dollar exposure to intermediate term investment grade corporate bonds. The rally in bonds yesterday was a fear response to the jobs report and does not IMO reflect a change in inflation expectations. I will discuss those trades in my next post.
++
I noted a prior comment that HR had a decent rally on 8/1 in response to its earnings report:
Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR)
At close on 8/1/25
$16.54 +$1.18 +7.68%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/hr?mod=search_symbol
I discussed eliminating my HR position held in my Schwab account in Item # 7.B. of this post.
I still own 110+ shares in my Fidelity account.
Whenever I have discussed HR in the past, I have noted that the quarterly dividend exceeded the funds available for distribution ("FAD") per share.
When that happens for more than 1 or 2 quarters, which is something to keep in mind, there is an enhanced danger of a dividend cut. The danger increases as the time period for the shortage lengthens. The shortage for HR has been over a much longer period.
HR announced as part of its second quarter earnings release that it was slashing its quarterly dividend from $.31 to $.24.
This quarter was the first time in a long time that HR managed to generate FAD per share in excess of its $.31 per share quarterly dividend. The quarterly FAD number was $.326 per share but I would not get excited by that development. Maintenance expenditures are a deduction from FFO in the FAD calculation and that number fell significantly in the 2025 second quarter from the prior 4 quarters, as shown at page 8 of the earnings release:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1360604/000136060425000094/exhibit991secondquarter202.htm
The Board finally recognized that this REIT had problems, something that has been obvious to me for a very long time, and announced a Strategic Plan to improve performance:
Pdf format: https://s23.q4cdn.com/171268564/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/Healthcare-Realty-Strategic-Deck-July-31-2025.pdf
As part of strategic plan, HR has identified $1.2B of assets sales, of which $200M has been completed so far (page 16).
A word about our Dear Leader's repositioning of 2 submarines armed with nuclear missiles. This is another effort to distract people from the Epstein matter and bad economic numbers. It was also an exceedingly foolish response by Trump.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/politics/nuclear-submaries-russia-trump-medvedev
Trump claims that he was responding to "provocative" comments made by Dmitry Medvedev, someone who has no power in Russia, more of an internet troll like the trolls, provocateurs and propagandists on Putin TV (e.g. Vladimir Solovyov, Olga Skabeyeva, Dmitry Kiselyov).
Medvedev has been making provocative statements for years.
He is not taken seriously by any informed person.
I have read a number of reports that he is frequently drunk.
Responding as Trump did to Medvedev's latest provocative statement is far more foolish and irresponsible than the foolish and irresponsible comments routinely made by Medvedev.
Trump has given Putin a deadline that expires on 8/8/2025 to enter into a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. If Putin fails to comply, Trump will sanction countries that buy products from Russia.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/29/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-00482064
Putin responded by stepping up Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine's capital. A Russian attack yesterday targeted a civilian apartment building in Kiev:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/europe/kyiv-apartment-block-attack-ukraine-russia-intl
So will Trump carry through with his tariff threats against countries that buy primarily energy products with Russia. Those countries include China. If he does add tariffs to what he is already levying on exports from China, then that could end up causing another round of tit-for-tat tariffs.
Wiki article on Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_civilians_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/08/bmy-brt-cgbd-chct-cne-fbrt-fbrtpre.html