Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Inflow Treasury Bill Purchases: $20,000 in principal amount
Outflow $1,000 Par Value Corporate Bonds (14): $14,248.06
(all were bought this year at discounts to par value; 13 were sold at premiums to par value; 1 sold at a smaller discount to par value at 93.02 than the purchase price discount to par value)
Realized Gains $1,000 par value Corporate Bonds: $522.69
Outflow Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds: $774.89 (loss of $82.89)
Outflow Junk Bond ETFs: $639.68 (gain of $8.73)
Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,001.08
I remain in a stall mode for common stock/stock fund purchases based on my valuation concerns.
Outflow Common Stocks: $155.15 (profit of $36.9)
Net Inflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $845.58
Treasury Yield Curve September:
I have been selling into the intermediate and long term bond rally.
Sourced: Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
Real Treasury Yield Curve September:
5 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 9/19/25: 2.43%
10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 9/19/25: 2.39%
TIPs:
I own treasury inflation protected securities in my Roth IRA accounts and will not own them in a taxable account. When owned in a taxable account, the accretion to the principal amount created by CPI is taxed even though the TIP is not sold. Summary of Marketable Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — TreasuryDirect; TIPS and investing in inflation | Fidelity
I have bought TIPs at auction and in the secondary market. {My video: Treasury Inflation Protected Notes - Purchases at Auction and Secondary Market - YouTube}
Last TIP Auction Purchase: Item # 6 Bought 1 TIP 1.625% Maturing on 10/15/29 Auction (10/31/24 Post) The real yield for this purchase was 1.67% since the purchase was at a slight discount to par value.
Last TIP Secondary Market Purchases: Item # 10.A. Bought 1 TIP 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 10/15/27 at 99.695 (11/21/24 Post)(real yield at 1.733%); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 TIP 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 7/15/33 at 94.99+ (8/2/24 Post)(real yield at 1.987%)
Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard do not charge a commission for treasury trades either at auction or in the secondary market. I would not use a broker for those trades that charged a commission.
I will trade TIPs when I form an opinion that the pricing is irrational, as I did in 2012 when the real yield was priced in negative territory, or there was a material risk of a price decline which was the case for long dated TIPs sold in 2016, as examples.
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| 2016 TIP Trades |
| TIP (3) +$838.87 |
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| Note the Buyer's Real Yield at 120.4492 price paid |
I also pared TIP positions in my Vanguard Roth IRA in 2017:
CME FedWatch FF Range Probabilities 10/29/25 Fed Meeting:
91.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut
The September CPI report is scheduled for release on 10/15/25: CPI Home: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Even if the CPI report shows a higher month-to-month increase than the August report, even materially higher, the Fed is IMO focused again more on unemployment than on inflation and will cut the FF range again at its 10/29/25 meeting even with inflation rising. Preventing problematic inflation is far more important than trying to improve the labor market with rate cuts when unemployment is already at an historically low number.
Unemployment Rate - St. Louis Fed
IMO, the Federal Reserve made its second most important policy mistake in 2021 by keeping both ZIRP and Q/E as inflation surged, with CPI hitting an annual rate of 8.5% in March 2022 when the Fed decided to raise the FF range to .25%-.5% from 0-.25%. My comment during that period was that the FED was so far behind the curve that it needed a telescope to see the curve. (the biggest mistake was the tightening after the 1929 stock market crash and the onset of the Great Depression)
And, it now appears that the FED under Trump's political pressure will again pretend that the upcoming increases in inflation are "transitory" and will fail to address the problem until problematic inflation becomes embedded in the economy and permanently increases prices.
The personal consumption expenditure price index is compiled and released as part of the monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports. Personal Income | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) The August report will be released on 9/26/25. The September report will be released 10/31 which is after the next Fed meeting.
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen." I do not view that as an accurate statement now. Inflation risks are going to be ignored and bond investors will eventually come to that conclusion.
As expected, the FED cut the federal funds range by .25%. The new range is 4.00% to 4.25% which was already priced into the 3 month T Bill yield.
12 out of 19 voting Fed members are predicting at least one more .25% cut before year end which is already priced into the 4 and 6 month treasury bills.
10 out of 19 Fed members are expecting two more .25% cuts this year. The 4 and 6 month T Bills are not pricing in two more cuts this year but only 1 more IMO.
Discussed at Fed rate decision September 2025
The Fed - September 17, 2025: FOMC Projections materials
As a reminder about the accuracy of FED predictions about inflation, the December 2020 projections for PCE and Core PCE inflation needs to be kept in mind:
The Fed - December 16, 2020: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs, Krugman Explains - YouTube
The True Cost Of Trump's Tariffs: American Farmers Speak Out - YouTube
Soybean Prices (1968-2025); China Boycotts US Soybeans, Plunging Prices and Straining Midwest Farmers
Farmers are being squeezed - it's testing their loyalty to Trump
The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. . . . CBO currently projects that the deficit for fiscal year 2025 will be $1.8 trillion. Monthly Budget Review: August 2025 | Congressional Budget Office
U.S. government reports $345 billion deficit for August, larger than expected - YouTube
Americans' emergency funds are shrinking—why it's a problem 1 of 3 Americans say they have no emergency fund. For those who have a fund, the median amount is $500, down from $600 one year ago.
Trump to impose $100,000 fee for H-1B worker visas, White House says; American labor has a new challenge: Trump’s $100K fee on H-1B visas | The fee will apply to only new H-1B fees after Sunday 9/21/25. The visas are primarily issued to highly skilled foreign workers. The White House is claiming that this is a one time payment, but what will prevent Trump from turning it into an annual fee.
Trump's authority to change VISA fees without approval from Congress will be challenged in court. Companies incur other expenses in addition to the fee which is set only to recover the government's costs of adjudicating the visa application by law. That is why the fee is currently set so low at $215.
In addition, there would have to be an administrative proceeding to set a new fee, which Trump has apparently ignored with the increased fee taking effect after midnight today, with notice to the public and an opportunity to be heard before the administrative agency can change the fee.
In Trump's America, where the President has more powers than King George did in 1776 and less trouble with the Congress than that King had with his Parliament, Trump can unilaterally dispense with due process and the Administrative Procedure Act, 5 U.S. Code § 551, by Executive Orders.
If Trump implements that $100K fee, taken together with other costs companies incur in the visa process, that would likely end the H-1B visa program except for the most highly skilled positions where the U.S. company has limited or no options.
Howard Lutnick claimed that companies, primarily those in technology, are "on board" with paying that amount Lutnick further repeatedly claim that the $100K was an annual fee. White House tries to tamp down corporate panic for high-skill visa holders after last-minute overhaul - POLITICO "Lutnick also repeatedly said on Friday that the fee would be annual for companies, while the White House official said Saturday that it’s a “one-time fee that applies only to the petition.". Any news organization that quoted Lutnick was engaged in Fake News according to Trump.
Bondi's DOJ lawyers are continuing their efforts to remove Lisa Cook knowing that the claimed mortgage fraud has been refuted by the documents. Lisa Cook v. Donald Trump, 25-5326 – CourtListener.com (20 republican state AGs, along with the republican state legislature in Arizona, filed an amicus brief in support of Cook's removal) In a 2 to 1 decision with a Trump appointee, Judge Katsas, as expected, in dissent, the D.C. Appellate Court panel refused to stay the TRO preventing Cook's removal before last week's Fed meeting. Appeals court denies Trump bid to remove Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook - POLITICO; Opinion.pdf Trump has appealed the case to the Supreme Court. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to allow for firing of Fed governor - SCOTUSblog
Bessent made same claims Trump cited to fire Lisa Cook (9/17/25). I will be waiting for the Trump sycophant Bill Pulte to refer this matter to the DOJ for possible criminal prosecution. I wonder whether this news originated from this altercation between Pulte and Bessent: ‘I’m Gonna Punch You in Your F--king Face’: Scott Bessent Threatens an Administration Rival - POLITICO (9/9/25)
The Fed will no longer be independent of Trump IMO when he succeeds in appointing a majority of FED voting members. The result will be cuts in the federal funds rates before the 2026 midterm elections even if inflation is surging higher.
Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply (9/17/25), see Mortgage Application Payments Increased in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | MBA
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Trump's Use of the Presidency to Enrich Himself and his family:
'Incredible Corruption': Blockbuster Report on Trump Crypto Grift Leaves Observers Stunned; Steve Witkoff at Center of $2 Billion Trump Crypto Deal; Watchdog: NYT Report Renews Fears Trump’s Self-Enrichment Schemes Are Endangering Our National Security - Accountable US Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) ruling family, deposited $2B in World Liberty Financial founded by the Trump and Witkoff families. The UAE was then given access to high end AI chips that may be redirected to China's military use given the close ties between UAE and China. Trump denies any connection between the two events.
Does Anybody Care This Is the Worst Bribery Scandal Since Teapot Dome? | The New Republic The more relevant question is whether any republican cares. Other people care and are disgusted by Trump using the President's power in this manner.
Trump Crypto and Conflict of Interest Report (4-22-25)
What would republicans say if a Democrat President had accepted a $400M plane from the UAE that will require hundreds of millions to retrofit, and then entered into this kind of deal that may endanger U.S. security while enriching the President, his friends and family? Republican politicians will not dare to make even the mildest criticism of Trump, no matter what he does, and consequently all of them must be deemed to have approved of Trump's UAE deals.
A running list of Trump's conflicts of interest | The Week (5/20/25)
Trump’s Gulf Interests Conflict With the Interests of the American People (5/20/25)
Tracking Trump's visits to his properties and other conflicts of interest - CREW | Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington; Trump's term 2 corruption by the numbers: More golf trips, more foreign visitors and more profits - CREW | Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (7/21/25)
What Is Political Corruption and What Can We Do About It? | Brennan Center for Justice (8/11/25)
‘We’d Call That Corruption’: How Trump Uses The Presidency To Expand His Global Empire - YouTube This video is posted at Forbes YT channel.
Trump's Defamation Lawsuit Against the NYT:
Trump sues 'New York Times' for $15 billion, alleging defamation; Trump sues ‘degenerate’ New York Times for $15B-POLITICO This is another frivolous lawsuit IMO. Complaint.pdf (the lawyers who signed this pleading are identified at page 85). Trump's $15 billion lawsuit against 'The New York Times' is his craziest one yet Unlike Paramount, the NYT does not have any pending deal that needs government approval.
A republican federal district court judge rejected the Complaint, with leave to amend, for violating Rule 8 of Civil Rules of Procedure which requires a short and plan statement of facts. Rule 8. Federal Rules of Civil Procedure; Judge rejects Trump’s New York Times lawsuit for being ‘decidedly improper and impermissible’ Trump Complaint Against NYT Gets Benchslapped Into Oblivion - Above the Law It is the most ridiculous Complaint that I have ever read. The judge noted that a Complaint is not supposed to be "a public forum for vituperation and invective” or “a megaphone for public relations." I would add that lawsuits are not to be used to silence and intimate critics.
At page 79 of the Complaint, Trump claims to have a net worth of $100 billion, "reasonably" valued, up from $3.9 billion in Forbes' 2024 estimate. The Definitive Net Worth Of Donald Trump; Eric Trump defends UAE-Binance deal, says his father is 'first guy who hasn't made money off of the presidency' | The Block Becoming President again in 2025 has been extremely lucrative to Trump and his family. The farmers who voted for him will not be so fortunate.
Companies need to develop some backbone in response to Trump's dictatorial actions and a constant stream of frivolous lawsuits. Currently, most have none. The ones who are bending the knee and kissing Trump's ring are subject to customer boycotts of their products or services.
Sure, Trump has the power to extort money from companies and law firms who do business with the federal government, require access to government facilities, and/or require federal government approval for some transaction. We already know that can be done.
If the NYT and the other defendants are successful in Trump's latest defamation suit, then winning the case needs to be only the first step.
Success needs to be followed by suits against the attorneys who sign the pleadings and Trump for malicious prosecution and whatever other remedies may apply including a request for a massive punitive damage award. It took a massive punitive damage award against Trump in the second E. Jean Carroll trial just to stop him from repeatedly making statements that a jury had already found to be defamatory in the first trial.
One interesting legal question is whether the defendants in this case can force Trump to give a deposition during his Presidency. The Supreme Court has held that the President does not have immunity for civil liability when the suit was brought prior to becoming President and was unrelated to the President's official duties. Clinton v. Jones, 520 U.S. 681 (Sup.Ct. 1997) The Court did not decide the issue of whether a state court could require the attendance of Clinton at a deposition in a civil suit brought by Paul Jones.
The Supreme Court has also held that the President is not subject to civil damages for official actions as President. Nixon v. Fitzgerald, 457 U.S. 731 (Sup.Ct. 1982)
But has Trump waived whatever privilege he may have to avoid a deposition in a civil case that he initiated, not as President acting in his official capacity, but as a private citizen? I believe the 6 Republican Justices will first have to create such a privilege out of whole cloth, which they have shown a willingness to do, and then address whether it has been waived by Trump initiating the lawsuit, not as President exercising his official duties, but in his private capacity.
The defendants need to find out what the courts will do by filing a notice to take Trump's deposition during some future weekend.
That would be preceded by an offer to negotiate the timing. Trump will resist. Then the defendants will file a motion to compel testimony.
The reason for this course of action is to put Trump under oath and to start asking questions about his past business dealing.
If he commits perjury in a deposition connected to private litigation, is that immune from criminal prosecution?
Let's see how far the 6 Republican Justices will take their created immunity from criminal prosecution, and it was created by them in 2024.
Trump will use defamation suits to punish and silence critics. It cost a lot of money to defend against one of his suits. Donald J. Trump is a Libel Bulley but also a Libel Loser: ABA Journal (Fall 2016).pdf
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More Dictatorial Acts by an Authoritarian Demagogue and Unchallengeable Dear Leader of the GOP:
Trump pushes Pam Bondi to prosecute his political foes (9/21/25)
Trump to fire US Attorney Erik Siebert for resisting effort to charge New York AG James: Sources - YouTube; US Attorney Erik Siebert under pressure from Trump tells staff he will be resigning, source says | CNN Politics Siebert lasted about 8 months before being forced out.
Trump has reportedly appointed one of his aides, Lindsey Halligan, to replace Siebert. Trump nominates replacement for acting U.S. attorney in office probing Letitia James - CBS News Mary Cleary, a lawyer active in republican politics, claimed that she had been appointed. Trump said that Halligan was "loyal", so a lack of experience as a prosecutor is not relevant when she has that most important qualification, perhaps the only one other than having a law license. She did compete in the Miss Colorado beauty pageant 3 times and made it to third runner up. Whoever is appointed will cause Letitia James to be indicted and arrested, most likely with cameras rolling and in handcuffs. Leg irons are optional when political opponents are prosecuted in Trump's America.
Trump has weaponized the DOJ to go after his political enemies. It is normal for Trump to falsely accuse others of bad conduct when he is the culprit. This does distract attention from his own conduct. Trump would have been convicted IMO of multiple federal crimes without republican Justices and judges intervening.
Who was arrested in Trump’s D.C. crime emergency? We analyzed 1,273 records, a Washington Post article republished at MSN. For the arrests where federal officers were present, 1 in 7 involved carrying open cans of alcohol, 1 in 12 involved minor offenses like public consumption of marijuana in small quantities and minor traffic offenses, and 1 in 4 involved possession of a firearm view as a constitutional right in Trump's America.
DC grand juries return unprecedented wave of defeats in Trump surge cases | wusa9.com (9/10/25)
The former Fox "News" personality Jeanine Pirro is the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia. She is a Trump acolyte. The attorneys that she uses have so far swiftly dismissed at least 11 cases soon after bringing criminal charges. All of those cases involved alleged assaults on federal officers or members of the National Guard who had occupied D.C. on Trump's order. That caused the U.S. Magistrate Matthew Sharbaugh to make this comment: "It seems like one takeaway could be the government is filing these charges and investigating them afterward That’s not how it’s supposed to work."
Trump announces he’s sending federal law enforcement to Memphis and that Chicago is next
Seth Moulton urges Donald Trump to condemn political violence amid death threats You can read and listen to the Trump supporters threatening to kill Moulton for urging Trump to condemn political violence here: Rep. Seth Moulton on X: "My office has received an extraordinary number of violent and graphic threats yesterday and today from right-wing individuals online and over the phone for simply urging Trump to condemn political violence- X The audio is a must listen. Will the Kash Patel's FBI make an effort to locate those individuals? If so, will Pam Bondi's DOJ even present the evidence so collected to a grand jury? I doubt it.
Republican Routine Attacks on Free Speech:
Perhaps Trump and Brendan Carr need to read the 9 to 0 Supreme Court decision in National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo (2024) regarding the government threatening legal sanctions for exercising constitutionally protected free speech. The decision reaffirmed Bantam Books, Inc. v. Sullivan | 372 U.S. 58 (1963); Government Coercion of Private Speech: National Rifle Association (NRA) v. Vullo | Congress.gov | Library of Congress I view their actions and threats as clearly unconstitutional but both could care less IMO.
'They should be put in jail': Trump threatens protesters with 'criminal RICO' charges - Alternet.org Trump wants the DOJ to investigate bringing criminal charges against protestors who shouted "Free Palestine". Anyone who disagrees with Trump is a radical left lunatic and all protestors are paid by George Soros in TrumpWorld. As usual, nothing resembling evidence needs to be produced to justify any claim made by Trump including all of his dismissals of accurate reporting as Fake News. Can anyone name a republican who criticized Trump for wanting to criminally charge protestors under the RICO statute?
The Trump lawyer Todd Blanche, who is currently the Deputy AG, has argued that the DOJ can criminally charge protestors under the federal RICO statute. Todd Blanche Decides Heckling Donald Trump Is Organized Crime Now - Above the Law; Todd Blanche mocked for defending Trump call for RICO probes
Trump plans crackdown on liberal groups after Charlie Kirk shooting
Pam Bondi's Ridiculous 24 Hours | National Review; ‘That is not the law’: Bondi promised to target ‘hate speech.’ She’s facing backlash from all corners. - POLITICO Bondi does not have a clue about the scope of the First Amendment's protection for speech which is to be expected. Why everything Pam Bondi said about ‘hate speech’ is wrong. Bondi's comments are consistent with the strong authoritarianism of Trump and his Administration. The Attorney General’s Attack on Free Speech - The Atlantic (subscription publication); Is hate speech legal?
Regarding the Trump Administration's continuing and non-stop assault on the First Amendment, the U.S. government pressured Disney, the owner of ABC, to cancel the Jimmy Kimmel show after he made an inappropriate comment about Charlie Kirk's killer. Jimmy Kimmel’s Suspension Is an Escalation in Every Way - The Atlantic Just prior to Kimmel's suspension, the Trump appointed Chairman of the FCC, Brendan Carr, made this comment: "This is a very, very serious issue right now for Disney. We can do this the easy way or the hard way. These companies can find ways to take action on Kimmel, or there is going to be additional work for the FCC ahead." Jimmy Kimmel suspension puts spotlight on Brendan Carr, Trump’s FCC chair- NBC News
Brendan Carr also made this threat against the affiliates who are the ones that have the broadcast licenses: "I think it’s past time these [affiliates] themselves push back and say, ‘Listen, we’re not going to run Kimmel anymore until you straighten this out because we’re running the possibility of license revocation from the FCC if we continue to run content that ends up being a pattern of news distortion." The FCC Chairman is threatening immediate action- X We are talking about a comment made by a comedian on late night TV. Who decides what is news distortion and will Carr apply the same standards to news media outlets like Fox News, its affiliated stations, OAN, and other similar news media outlets that have FCC broadcast licenses.
Trump's mouthpiece, Karoline Leavitt, now a permanent resident of a Trump created Orwellian world, claimed that the decision to pull Kimmel was entirely a private decision that was not even influenced by Carr's threats. Trump Jimmy Kimmel Disney ABC She also claimed that Trump's signature was not on the Epstein birthday card, and the production of the birthday card "PROVES" that Trump did not sign it. Just do not compare that signature with the others, including those pictured in my last blog that clearly shows that he did.
The first reaction was from Nexstar Media Group Inc. Cl A (NXST), a company that owns 32 ABC affiliated stations, who stated that it would not allow its stations to broadcast Kimmel's shows. Nexstar has pending a $6.2B dollar deal to acquire Tegna which will require Brendan Carr to approve the acquisition.
$6.2 Billion Nexstar Deal Looms Over Jimmy Kimmel's Suspension - Business Insider;
What Is The Real Reason Behind Jimmy Kimmel's Firing? Nexstar-Tegna Merger And FCC Threat Explained
A list of stations owned by Nexstar can be found in its 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report, starting at page 8.
Soon thereafter, Disney capitulated to Trump as well. Trump praised Kimmel, a Trump critic, being taken off the air indefinitely. Jimmy Kimmel suspension: Trump reacts, threatens late night hosts; Trump applauds Jimmy Kimmel's suspension and seeks to punish critical broadcasters | Reuters
Trump suggests pulling TV licenses after Jimmy Kimmel suspended (9/18/25) Trump: "They give me only bad publicity, press. I mean, they’re getting a license. I would think maybe their license should be taken away". I did hear the republican Senator from Texas criticize this conduct. Ted Cruz (R-TX) rips FCC's Jimmy Kimmel threat as 'unbelievably dangerous'; Ted Cruz Compares FCC Chair to Mafia Boss Over Jimmy Kimmel Warning to ABC - Newsweek Carr is acting on behalf of the Don and Cruz will not blame Trump of course.
Brendan Carr Defends Timing of Paramount Merger Approval: 'We Ran Normal Course' I would say allegedly followed a normal course. The tie up was approved by Carr's FCC only after Paramount agreed to settle what I would characterize as a frivolous Trump lawsuit involving the editing of a Harris interview. Paramount Reaches $16 Million Settlement With Donald Trump
Trump later claimed in a Truth Social" there was a side deal in addition to that $16M in cash: "we also anticipate receiving $20 Million Dollars more from the new Owners, in Advertising, PSAs, or similar Programming, for a total of over $36 Million Dollars." I suspect that the "we" means Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT), majority owned by Trump, or a subsidiary thereof. We Still Don't Know If Donald Trump Is Getting Free Ads From Paramount - Business Insider; House Democrats Press Paramount's David Ellison On Trump Settlement
Brendan Carr: "We're not done yet" I did not think that he was done. Carr also advocated for the defunding of PBS and NPR. Brendan Carr - Wikipedia
Carr has made it clear that his actions have been cleared by Trump.
Brian Kilmeade of Fox News says ‘just kill ‘em’ during discussion about mentally ill homeless people | The Independent Kilmeade continues as one of the Fox "News" personalities.
Trump threatens ABC reporter asking about free speech - Independent TV
John Kelly says Donald Trump fits ‘fascist’ definition and prefers ‘dictator approach’ John Kelly is a retired 4 star Marine general and Trump's former Chief of Staff. His observation about Trump was made prior to the election, was generally known by the voters on election day IMO, and has been confirmed throughout Trump second term, both by his actions and words that were easily predictable by all voters in November 2024. No one can reasonably claim that they were unaware in November 2024.
It is my opinion that the U.S. now has its first fascist government. IMO, the issue is no longer subject to reasonable debate. If you believe it is still subject to a fact based and reasonable debate, then you are not paying attention or are engaged in extreme news distortion.
The 6 Republican Justices IMO have laid the groundwork for Trump's authoritarianism. They are not conservatives in the American legal tradition. They are in danger of being remembered by legal scholars as the 21st Century equivalent of the Supreme Court that decided the Dred Scott case in 1857. Dred Scott v. Sandford | 60 U.S. 393 (Sup.Ct.1856)
I would add that several federal district courts have concluded that Trump violated several constitutional rights of law firms: 1st Amendment, 5th Amendment Due Process Clause and the 6th Amendment.
Trump is appealing those orders. Targeting of law firms and lawyers under the second Trump administration - Wikipedia I view Trump's EOs targeting law firms and lawyers as fitting the definition of extortion that can be remedied to his satisfaction by the law firm providing up to $100M in free legal advice to clients chosen by Trump which is consistent with how bribery is defined. Trump is taking a risk that even the 6 Republican Justices will be unable to sanction this conduct. If that proves to be case, and the Democrats regain control over the House in 2026, there will be hearings on this issue that will result in one of the many impeachment articles that will pass the House before Trump's second term ends.
JFK and His Anti-Vaccine Crusade Based on Conspiracy Theories and Bad Science That Will Endanger Public Health including children:
WATCH: Sen. Mullin cites recording as he accuses CDC leader of repeatedly lying, later walks it back Susan Monarez, former CDC director, tells Senate committee 'true reason' she believes she was fired - ABC News; Ousted CDC Director Susan Monarez testifies about RFK Jr., says she's "very nervous" about vaccine recommendations Senator Mullin claimed there was a recording that contradicted the testimony of the former CDC Director Susan Monarez, appointed by Trump and quickly fired by RFK after she refused to endorse a chance in vaccine policies without looking at the evidence according to her sworn testimony. RFK Jr. claims that he fired Monarez after she allegedly said she was not trustworthy. Monarez testified under oath that Kennedy's claim was false. Senator Mullin (R-OK) accused Monarez of lying and claimed to have a recording of the conversion which proves her alleged lie. When pressed to produce the recording, Senator Mullin (R-OK) said he was mistaken. There was no recording.
Monarez was also questioned by Senator Moody (R-FL) whose line of questioning was almost as disgusting. Senator claims Monarez was recorded, followed by denials - Live Updates - POLITICO
I previously discussed another outrageous claim by the Republican Senator from Oklahoma. Senator Mullin (R) Falsely Claims that Obama Gave Epstein His 2008 Sweetheart Non Prosecution Deal - YouTube Obama was not the President in 2008.
You would not know now that the Senate vote to approve Monarez as CDC was 51-47 with all democrats voting against her nomination. RFK claimed at that time he had full confidence in her. Now, according to the Trumpster politicians in the Senate, she is part of left wing conspiracy to damage Trump when she is only testifying what RFK Jr. is actually doing at the CDC with Trump's approval according to the testimony of several former CDC scientists. Fired CDC Chief Drops Bombshell at Hearing - YouTube
Kennedy advisers vote against MMRV shot for children under 4 | Reuters; CDC advisory panel recommends restricting access to the MMRV vaccine;RFK Jr's CDC panel votes to delay vaccine that fights chicken pox, measles RJK Jr. packed the advisory board will like minded vaccine opponents and skeptics. Reliable medical science is no longer relevant. Debunked and fact free conspiracy theories are the new pillars of knowledge in Trump's America. MMRV vaccines provides protection against the chickenpox virus. Deaths among young children from chickenpox have declined due to the vaccine. Impact of U.S. Chickenpox Vaccination Program | Chickenpox (Varicella) | CDC
{I was about 4 when I became infected, maybe slightly younger but not older, and the seriousness of the illness is one of my earliest memories. I woke up with red blisters over my face and the sheets were soaking wet. I recall the Doctor making a house call and doing nothing other than making a recommendation regarding fluids}
There have been reports that RFK's advisory committee would vote to delay giving children the hepatitis B vaccine that has saved lives. So far, the committee has tabled the recommendation in order to work on the wording. ACIP tables vote to delay hepatitis B vaccine birth dose | CIDRAP Pulling the recommendation will lead to a significant increase in deaths.
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Trump border czar Tom Homan reportedly accepted $50,000 in cash from undercover FBI agents -The Guardian; Tom Homan denies alleged bribery: 'bull s---' Based on reports, there was a video of a FBI sting where Homan was taped accepting $50,000 in cash. Do you think there is a chance that the republican House and Senate will investigate this matter to determine its truth and the identity of the person who quashed the investigation? My answer is no.
In Trump's America, it is only necessary to call this Fake News by the radical left lunatics in media and that ends the inquiry.
The Maga Queen Megyn Kelly had this response to the Homan news about the alleged $50K cash bribe: "WE DO NOT CARE".
Kash Patel and Deputy AG Todd Blanche stated that Homan did nothing wrong which is not a surprise: "This matter originated under the previous administration and was subjected to a full review by FBI agents and Justice Department prosecutors. They found no credible evidence of any criminal wrongdoing."
'Go somewhere else': Sheriff may file charges against Democrats over anti-Trump buttons - Alternet.org The Sheriff is Kurt Schneider. After receiving complaints about the merchandise, the sheriffs deputies removed the Democrats from the Ashland County Ohio county fair. Schneider referred the matter to the Secret Service. One of buttons had Trump wearing a cap with "FELON" written on it. The buttons are clearly protected First Amendment speech.
GOP shuts down House Democrats' move to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein banks Are almost all republicans in the House and Senate engaged in a transparent cover up on behalf of their Dear Leader?
Why Voters Will Feel the Impact of GOP Health Cuts Before the Midterms - POLITICO
ACA enhanced subsidies ending may hike Obamacare premiums in 2026 The enhanced subsidiaries are set to expire on 12/31/25. It is possible that the republicans will extend the enhance premium subsidiaries, possibly reducing the amounts, until the end of 2026 hoping to avoid voter pushback in the midterm elections. So far they have not done anything.
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Small Ball Trading Rules:
Baseball Analogy: Small ball (baseball) - Wikipedia
Primarily a risk reduction trading technique, one of many strategies that I employ to mitigate risks that are assumed when owning risk assets where loss of capital is always possible.
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
(5) Shares purchased with dividends may be sold when it is profitable to do so and the share price is outside my consider to buy range; and
(6) There is no hesitation to sell a stock after a dividend cut or a disappointing earnings report, when I can realize any capital gain.
The most important objective is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains, particularly by selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield.
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. Generally, if I am willing to buy a dividend stock now through a market purchase, I will consider reinvesting the dividend. Conversely, if I am not willing to buy shares, I will likely turn off the dividend reinvestment option.
My Primary Investment Objectives: (1) Preservation of Capital; (2) Income Generation; (3) Realized Capital Gains in risk assets which has a low priority for me.
Normally, I will try to generate at least $25K in trading profits during each year. I failed to do that last year but will be near or exceed that goal this year with the primary boost, compared to 2024, coming from selling shares in the mutual fund T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview The YTD profit in that fund is currently at $8,372.48:
I have also been reducing my position this year in the Permanent Portfolio Investor Class (PRPFX), see Item # 2.C. Pared PRPFX - Sold 5 at $68.4 (8/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $139.19); Item # 1.B. Sold 10 PRPFX at $68.09 (7/3/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $271.28); Item # 3.E. Pared PRPFX - Sold 10 at $67.16 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $261.97); Item # 1. Sold 10 of 237+ PRPFX at $66.01 (5/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $250.48)
Another fund that I have pared in 2025 is the Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund (VHCOX), see Item # 1.B. Sold 5 VHCOX at $89.76 (7/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $247.24); Item # 4.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $87.51 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.99); Item # 1.D. Sold 5 VHCOX at $86.62 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $231.54)
I will continue selling mutual fund shares into the ongoing stock rally as a risk reduction measure. For some funds, where the position is tiny, I may sell only 1 or 2 shares at a time (E.g. Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio see Item # 2.F.)
I have also eliminated small positions in some funds this year due to what I considered to be poor performance- no need to mention names.
1. Small Ball Buys:
A. Bought 10 NBXG in Fidelity Account at $15.15:
Quote: Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund Inc. Overview - A Stock CEF
Cost: $151.49
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25
SEC File dAnnual Report for the period ending 10/31/24
Top 10 Public Stock Holdings & Private Company Positions:
![]() |
| As of 7/31/25 |
NBXG Page at Morningstar Currently rated at 4 stars.
NBXG Portfolio | Morningstar Lists top 23 holdings (accessible to non-subscribers)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Bought 10 NBXG at $12.75 (10/3/24 Post)
Other 2025 Purchases (not discussed - Schwab Account):
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
NBXG Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
ROC Supported.
Yield at $15.15: 7.92%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/15/25 (owned as of)
Data Date of 9/12/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.12
Closing Market Price: $15.12
Discount: -11.68%
Average 3 year discount: -15.5%
Sourced: NBXG - CEF Connect
B. Added to WEN - Bought 10 WEN at $9.7; 5 at $9.55 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Wendy's Co. (WEN)
Cost: $192.5
WEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
52 week range: $9.63-$20.6, as of 9/12/25
New Average cost per share: $9.75 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually), slashed from $.25 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. The prior dividend rate was not sustainable.
WEN Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 5.74%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/25 (owned 10 shares as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/29/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.D. Started WEN - Bought 10 at $10 (8/19/25 Post), SEC Filed Earnings Press Release. I discussed the reasons for my caution in that post.
Purchase Restriction: With the possible negative impact on profit margins and revenues as discussed below, I will limit my subsequent purchases to 5 shares with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Subsequent to these purchases, Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) reported that beef prices had spiked, the same claim made earlier by Hormel. The spike in beef and coffee prices due to the republican tariff taxes will likely negatively impact Wendy's profit margins, to the extent absorbed by Wendy's, and revenues to the extent the costs are passed on to customers who generally respond to higher prices with fewer purchases.
C. Started TOPT as a Placeholder - Bought 5 at $29.97 - Schwab Account:
Quote: iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF Overview
Cost: $149.85
"The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500 Index."
Summary Prospectus Excerpt (available at Sponor's website):
Rebalancing occurs quarterly. Weighting is based on the float adjusted market values subject to capping.
Sponsor's website: iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF | TOPT
Expense Ratio: .2%
Holdings as of 9/17/25:
I view most of the stocks owned by this fund to be currently overvalued, but went ahead and purchased a few shares as a Placeholder. When I scroll through the positions in an account, a Placeholder position is just a reminder that I may want to add to a position based on a price declined shown in the quote price.
Each subsequent purchase will have to at the lowest price in the chain based on my valuation opinion. The maximum position is 100 shares.
Dividends: Paid quarterly at a variable.
I do not view the amounts as providing any support to the stock price.
D. Added to UDR - Bought 3 at $37.7; 2 at $37.2:
Quote: UDR Inc. (UDR) - Apartment REIT
Cost: $187.5
UDR is a S&P 500 component.
With treasury bill and MM yields declining, and likely to decline further, I am more willing now to add to dividend paying stocks that have higher yields at my purchase prices with a reasonable prospect for dividend increases over time.
Properties as of 6/30/25: 55,808 apartment units. UDR 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 43
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $41.98 (32 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually), last raised from $.425 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment. In the third quarter of 2015, the quarterly dividend was at $.2275.
I have changed my option to reinvestment as a means to randomly average down.
UDR Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $41.98:
Last Ex Dividend: 7/10/25 (owned $27+ as of)
Next Ex Dividend: 10/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.I. Added to UDR - Bought 1 at $38.58; 1 at $37.98 (8/12/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Current Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain. The risk mitigation mode is a 3 share purchase followed by 2 shares, and then repeat. This restriction allows for more shares to be bought than I have been buying given the decline in the price since I initiated a position. At less than $35, I will switch to 5 share buys.
Owned UDR SU Bonds: Stacked:
4 Maturing on 9/1/26, 2026 UDR 2.9% SU
5 Maturing on 9/1/27, 2027 UDR 3.5% SU
3 Maturing on 1/15/28, 2028 UDR 3.5% SU
4 Maturing on 1/26/29, 2029 UDR 4.4% SU
I sold 2 UDR 5.125% SU maturing on 9/1/34 Item # 2.F. Sold 2 UDR 5.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/34 at 102.258 (9/13/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $96.22) - Item # 3.A. Bought 2 UDR 5.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/34 at a Total Cost of 97.347 (5/12/25 Post)
E. Added to Duplicate KRG Position in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $22.2:
Quote: Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)
Cost: $111
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated KRG - Sold 25 at $25.51 (10/16/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.8)
New average cost per share this account: $22.57 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)
KRG Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 4.785%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/25
Next Ex Dividend: 10/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 1.L. Added to KRG in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.95 (8/5/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental I also noted there that recent results have been negatively impacted by tenant bankruptcies as discussed in this Fitch report. Fitch Rates Kite Realty's Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB'
Last Discussed: Item # 3.F. Started Duplicate Position in KRG - Bought 10 at $22.6 (9/13/25 Post)
Owned Kite Realty LP SU Bonds:
Stacked
4 Kite Realty LP 4% Coupon Maturing on 10/1/26
2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/31, recently purchased and discussed at Item # 5.E. Bought 2 Kite Realty LP 4.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/31 at a Total Cost of 98.6 (6/5/25 Post)(YTM then at 5.205%); Bond Prospectus
I have locked down all 2031 investment grade corporate bonds which prevents me from selling any unless I develop reasonable concerns about a material adverse change in the credit risk.
2025 Matured Kite Realty Bonds: 6
F. Added to COLD - Bought 5 at $12.98:
Quote: Americold Realty Trust Inc. (COLD) - Internally Managed Cold Storage REIT
Last Discussed: Item #3.C. Added to COLD - Bought 5 at $13.47; 5 at $13.25 (9/13/25 Post)
Website: Cold Storage Warehouse, Value Added Services & Supply Chain Management | Americold
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average cost per share: $15.34 (75 shares)
I am gradually averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares in this account.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
Reduced from $15.51.
COLD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 5.93%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/35): I discuss this report here: Item # 3.C. Added to COLB - Bought 5 at $14.8; 5 at $14.5 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation As discussed in that post, investors were disappointed by this report.
SU Bonds: I sold last month 2 of the SU bonds maturing in 2032.
G. Added to GTY - Bought 2 at $27.48 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Getty Realty Corp. (GTY)
Cost: $54.98
Management: Internal
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Elimination: Item # 3.A. Eliminated GTY - Sold 5 at $35.65 and 20 at $35.69 (1/3/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $211.35)
New average cost per share this account: $28.65
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share ($1.88 annually), last raised from $.45 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
GTY Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC: 6.56%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/26/25
Next Ex Dividend: 9/25/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.A. Added to GTY - Bought 5 at $26.8 - Fidelity Account (7/29/25); SEC Filed Press Release and Earnings Presentation.pdf
H. Added to TGT - Bought 1 at $88.88:
Quote: Target Corp. (TGT)
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/25
TGT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Chart: Major Bear Market Trend, possible bottoming in the $88-$90 range. I can not look at a five year chart and conclude that the bottom has been formed.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.G. Added to TGT - Bought 1 at $90.31 (9/13/25 Post) I have a five year chart in that post.
New Average cost per share: $92.28 (5) Shares
Reduced from $93.13.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.14 per share ($4.56 annually)
TGT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $92.38: 4.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 8/2/25): I discussed this report and the reasons for my caution here: Item # 3.L. Started TGT as a Placeholder - Bought 1 at $96.43 (8/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Purchase Restriction: 1 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position (assuming no significant improvement in earnings): 10 shares
2. Corporate Bonds:
As previously discussed, I have been reducing my interest risk exposure by selling $1,000 par value corporate bonds maturing in 2032 and thereafter. For my own edification, I decided to break out the number of bonds sold by the year of maturity, starting with my 7/22/25:
Starting with the 7/22/25 post, I have not sold any corporate bonds maturing in 2025-2032 and have not put a lock on selling any of those bonds. The short term investment grade corporate bonds that I own are going up in price as the Federal Reserve cuts the FF rate and will likely continue to rise as long as the FED continues to cut.
2032: 8
2033: 18
2034: 49
2035: 34
2036-2038: No corporate bonds and 35 municipal bonds whose call protection has expired and consequently are more likely to be called early during a period of declining rates compared to corporate bonds with make whole provisions.
2039-2055: 9 (currently own 55 municipal bonds and 1 corporate bond in this maturity range)
Total Sold: 118 starting with 7/22/25 post.
Last Purchases of $1K Par Value Corporate Bonds: 7 maturing in 2027 {4 maturing in 2027, discussed at Item # 8 (7/29/25); 2 maturing in 2027 discussed at Item # 3.B. (8/5/25 Post) and 1 maturing in 2027 discussed at Item # 2.M (8/12/25 Post)}
A. Sold 2 Southwestern Public Service 5.3% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 5/15/35 at 102.463 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL).
Principal Received: $2,047.26
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $39.46
Profit Snapshot: +$70.02
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
B. Sold 2 Duke Indiana 5.25% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 3/1/34 at 104.355 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Duke Energy Corp. (DUK).
Proceeds at 104.255 after $1 per bond commission.
Principal Received: $2,085.1
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $4.36
Profit Snapshot: $88.6
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
C. Sold 2 Dominion Energy 5.45% SU Maturing on 3/15/35 at 103.45 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D) - Utility Holding Company
Proceeds at 103.35 at $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,067 after commission
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $.30
I believe the accrued interest is for 1 day. I received the 6 month interest payment on 9/15/25:
Interest Payments Received in IB Account on 9/15:
Discussed at Item # 3.A. Bought 2 Dominion Energy 5.45% SU Maturing on 3/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.833 (7/15/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $70.34
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
D. Sold 2 First American Financial 5.45% SU Maturing on 9/30/34 at 101.11:
Issuer: First American Financial Corp. (FAF)
Proceeds at 101.01 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2020.2
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $50.56
Discussed at Item # 4.C. Bought 2 First American Financial 5.4% SU Maturing on (6/12/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $74.34
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
D. Sold 2 Ferguson Enterprises 5% SU Maturing on 10/3/34 at 101.152:
Issuer: Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG)
Proceeds at 101.052 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,021.04
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $45.56
Discussed at Item # 1.F. Bought 2 Ferguson Enterprises 5% SU Maturing on 10/3/34 at a Total Cost of 97.434 (6/18/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $72.36
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
E. Sold 2 Williams 5.15% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at 102.241:
Issuer: Williams Cos. (WMB) - Energy Infrastructure
I own the common stock, last discussed at Item # 1.B. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $61.1 (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $188.44)
Proceeds at 102.141 after $1 per bond commission.
Principal Received: $2,042.82
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $.57
Discussed at Item # 2.D. Bought 2 Williams 5.15% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at a Total Cost of 97.35 (5/9/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$95.82
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
F. Sold 1 Prudential Financial 5.2% SU Maturing on 3/14/35 at 103.544:
Issuer: Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU)
Proceeds at 103.444 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $1,034.44
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $.29
Discussed at Item # 1.D. Bought 1 Prudential 5.2% SU Maturing on 3/14/35 at a Total Cost of 99.547 (6/18/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $38.97
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A
Third Party Pricing Services:
As previously discussed, brokerage companies use third party services to assign prices to bonds and treasury bills. Actual closing trades are not used. For corporate bonds, the end result is that the third party price is almost invariably below the last trade price. All of the corporate bonds recently sold were at prices higher than the values assigned by the third party pricing services. Given the uniformity of mispricing the bonds at below market prices, I have to conclude that this result is intentional. The why of it is another matter.
I will also see wide disparities for two bonds from the same issuer maturing close in time.
This is an example:
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/15/25 |
Both of the Prudential bonds have the same credit rating of A3/A.
And the bond with the higher coupon (5.25% vs. 5.2%) has a 2.954% lower third party price. It is not possible to justify the discrepancy.
G. Sold 1 Entergy Louisiana 4.95% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 1/15/45 at 93.12:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company
Proceeds at 93.02 after $1 commission.
Principal Received: $930.2
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $8.39
Profit Snapshot: $12.06
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
3. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared FDUS - Sold 3 at $20.68:
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp. - Externally Managed BDCProceeds: $62.05
SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Risk factors are summarized starting at page 29 and ending at page 55).
Website: Investor Relations | Fidus Investment Corporation
Last Discussed: Item # 4.K. Pared FDUS - Sold 2 at $20.9 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.73) I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.C. Bought Back FDUS in Fidelity Account Bought 20 at $13.7; 5 at $11.99; 5 at $11.5; 5 at $9, 2 at $8.56, 2 at $5.98, 1 at $4.65 (3/28/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $32.17
New average cost per share: $8.75 (15 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 9/19/25 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $8.95.
All of the remaining shares were bought in March, July and August 2020 during the pandemic stock meltdown.
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually), last raised from $.41 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
FDUS Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends:
Paid so far in 2025: $.22 per share
Paid in 2024: $1.32 per share
Paid in 2023: $1.22 per share
Paid in 2022: $.56 per share
The special dividends are likely to trend down in amount due to the variable rate loans repricing at lower coupons since the FED started to cut the FF rate in September 2024. Those coupons are priced at spreads to short term rates that will decline with each FED rate cut.
Yield at $8.75: 19.66%(regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend (Special & Regular): 9/18/25 (owned all as of)
6/30/25: $19.57
3/31/25: $19.39
9/30/24: $19.42, 10-Q at p. 3
12/31/23: $19.69 10-K at page 123
6/30/23: $19.13, 10-Q at p. 3
12/31/22 $19.03, 10-K at p. 122
12/31/21: $19.96, " at page 122
6/30/21: $17.57
12/31/20: $16.81
9/30/20: $15.94
12/31/19: $16.85
9/30/19: $16.47 10-Q
12/30/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Net Investment Income (NII) per share: $.53, unchanged from the Q/E 6/30/24. As previously discussed, most BDCs have suffered a significant year-over-year decline in NII per share. So unchanged Y-O-Y NII per share is very good IMO compared only to other BDCs.
Adjusted NII per share: $.57, unchanged
Variable rate loans: 71% (remainder at fixed rates)
Weighted average yield of debt investments: 13.1%
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| 10-Q at pages 51-52 |
Non-Accrual Loans:
| 10-Q at page 52 |
![]() |
| Page 63, 10-Q |
![]() |
| 2018 50 Shares +$68.44 |
FDUS Realized Gains to Date: $626.44
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
Without checking, I believe that the dividends have not been supported by a return of capital.
See Fitch BDC Report dated 3/28/25, Tight Spreads, Rising Non-Accruals to Further Weaken BDC Earnings
B. Pared Duplicate Position in LXP - Sold 10 at $9.31:
Quote: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP)Proceeds: $93.1
Website: LXP Industrial Trust - Preeminent single-tenant U.S. industrial REIT
Properties | LXP Industrial Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I have been selling my highest cost shares which (1) reduces my taxable gain; (2) lowers my average cost per share and (3) increases my dividend yield.
Management: Internal
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.C. Added to LXP in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $8.25; 10 at $7.95 (7/29/25 Post); Item # 1.B. Bought 15 LXP at $8.36 - Fidelity Account (7/3/25 Post) The share price has improved slightly since Sixth Street made a cash offer for Plymouth Industrial REIT. I would not attribute the share price rise to the last earnings report.
Profit Snapshot: $8.7 (9/18/25 sale only)
New Average cost per share this account: $8.1 (50 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/18/25 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually)
LXP Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $8.1: 6.67%, rounded.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned 60 as of this account)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E /6/30/25): I do not recall when I last liked an LXP earnings report.
I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 3.D. Pared LXP in Fidelity Account - Sold Highest Cost Shares at $9.1 (9/2/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Some Sell Discussions: Over time, this REIT has proven to be an average REIT at best, sometimes poor depending on the time period, but I have so far at least successfully traded shares to improve total return numbers. Item # 1.I. Pared LXP in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.53 (8/2/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.61); Item # 2.D. Eliminated Duplicate Position in LXP - Sold 20 at $10.29 - Fidelity Account (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.25); Item # 1.D. Eliminated LXP - Sold 20+ at $11.57 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.37); Item # 1.C. Sold 137+ LXP at $9.08 and 53 at $9.06 In 2 Separate Roth IRA Accounts (9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $914.11); Sold 100 LXP in Fidelity Roth IRA at $11.15 (1/6/17 comment- profit of $271.9 referenced with no snapshot)(snapshot in Gateway Post for Equity REITs); Item # 2 Sold 250 LXP on Ex-Dividend Date in Two Taxable Accounts-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $224.65); Item # 1.B. Eliminated LXP - Sold 155+ at $9.46 (6/26/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.37); Item # 1.B. Sold 108+ LXP at $9.45-Used Commission Free Trade (2/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $79.9);; Item # 1 Sold 150 LXP in Vanguard Roth IRA-Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 6/24/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $80.19); Item # 1. Sold 54 LXP at $11.44 Vanguard Roth IRA (1/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot = $64.4); Item # 1 Sold 101+ LXP at $10.65 (10/28/14)(profit snapshot = $51.76)
LXP Realized Gains to Date: $2,056.37
I am buying treasury bills only in my Schwab Account and limiting my purchases to no more than the proceeds from maturing bills in that account. The Schwab sweep account pays only .05%.
A. Bought 5 at the 9/15/25 Auction:
182 Day
Matures on 3/19/26
Interest: $93.91
Investment Rate: 3.839%
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 9/17/25 Auction :
119 Day Bill
Matures on 1/20/26
Interest will be taxable in 2026 when held to maturity. I have never sold a treasury bill prior to maturity.
Interest: $63.05
Investment Rate: 3.917%
C. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 9/18/25 Auction:
55 Day Bill
Matures on 11/8/25
Interest: $61.88
Investment Rate: 4.045%
5. Exchange Traded Bonds:
Exchange Traded Bonds: Trade like stocks on the stock exchange.
A. Pared EAI in Fidelity Account - Sold 20 at $22.14:
Proceeds: $442.84
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds Trade like a stock on the stock exchange.
****
{My Baby Bond category does not include the exchange-traded bond categories that are labeled principal-protected notes, European hybrids, trust preferred, and trust certificates. Some investors may refer to those categories as baby bonds since they are traded on the stock exchange and generally have $25 par values compared to $1,000 par values for bonds traded in the bond market.
Rationale: I have been reducing my interest rate risk exposure. There is some benefit to harvest losses to partially offset gains this year. The realized gains in this account is currently over $10K.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 6.A. Bought 5 EAI at $20.3- Vanguard Account (6/26/25 Post); Item # 5.C. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 10 at $22.07 (8/2/24 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $21.7; 10 at $21.5; 10 at $21.27 (5/24/24 Post); Item # 6.A. Added to EAI in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $21.64 and Item # 6.B. Added 20 EAI in My Fidelity at $21.62 and Added 30 at $21.5 in my Schwab Account (12/30/23 Post); Item # 5.B. Added 5 EAI at $20.1; 5 at $19.85 - Schwab Account (10/21/23 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to EAI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $20.62; 5 at $20.36 (10/14/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.B. Sold 30 EAI at $24.73 - Used Commission Free Trade (3/17/19 Post)
Loss Snapshot: -$55.69
New Average cost per share this account: $21.82 (80 shares)
| Snapshot Intraday on 9/15/25 after pare |
Yield at $21.82: 5.586%
Calculation: .04875% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.21875 annual interest per share ÷ $21.82 average cost per share = 5.5855%
Last Ex Interest: 8/29/25 (owned all as of)
Next Ex Interest: 11/28/25
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875%
Maturity: 9/1/66
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value + accrued and unpaid interest on or after 9/1/2021.
Credit Risk: Low
Interest Rate Risk: High
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment)
Interest Payments: Quarterly
EAI Realized Gain Taxable Accounts: Net of +$12.01
Largest Annual Realized Gain Taxable Account: $67.5 (2019)
Owned $1,000 Par Value Entergy Arkansas First Mortgage Bonds: 8
5 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% first mortgage bonds maturing on 4/1/2026. Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Entergy Arkansas 4% first mortgage bond maturing on 6/1/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
2 Entergy Arkansas 5.15% first mortgage bond maturing on 1/2/33, Bond Page | FINRA.org
I recently sold 1 Entergy Arkansas 5.75% first mortgage bond maturing on 6/1/54. Item # 2.E. (8/12/25 Post)
I owned 3 Entergy Arkansas 3.7% first mortgage bonds ($1,000 par value) that matured on 6/1/24 (profit of $36.21 which includes 1 in RI account)
B. Pared EMP in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $21.62; 10 at $22.39+:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond due 2066 (EMP)
Proceeds: $332.05
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
EMP is another exchange traded first mortgage bond that I own in 3 taxable accounts and 2 RI accounts.
First Mortgage Bond
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Maturity: 10/1/2066
No call protection. Issuer has the optional right to call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Interest Rate Risk: High given the potentially long maturity. Interest rate risk is asymmetric in favor of the issuer who has the optional call right. If interest rates fall too far, the issuer will call the bond, but will allow the owner to keep the security when interest rates are rising and the price is falling.
Credit Risk: Rated at A2/A. Low IMO since the issuer is a regulated utility and the bond is a first lien on substantially all assets.
Loss Snapshots: -$27.2
New Average cost per share in this account: $21.17 (75 shares)
| Snapshot at Close on 9/16/25 after pares |
Yield at $21.17: 5.79%, rounded
Calculation: .049% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 annual interest per share ÷ $21.17 average cost per share = 5.7865%
EMP Trading Profits to Date: $437.7
Goal: The goal with both EMP and EAI is simply to realize a total return in excess of the interest payments.
If longer term interest rates continue to trend down, with the 30 year treasury falling to below 3.5% or so, it is possible that the issuers will call these first mortgage bonds at the $25 par value and refinance with lower coupons.
I currently view that possibility as a very low probability. U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond Overview | MarketWatch
The 30 year treasury yield was below 2.6% starting on 1/3/22 through 4/5/22, knocked down by Q/E. 2022 Treasury Yield Curve-U.S. Department of the Treasury The yield occasionally went below 2% in 2021. 2021 Treasury Yield Curve - U.S. Department of the Treasury
If both unemployment and inflation spike higher in 2026, with the economy in a recession before the midterms, I view it as probable that the Trump appointed members of the Federal Reserve, likely to be a majority, will restart ZIRP and Q/E, either failing to learn the lessons of 2020-2022 or doing whatever Trump wants irrespective of the long term harms.
Owned Entergy Mississippi $1,000 Par Value First Mortgage Bonds:
4 Entergy Mississippi 3.25% FM Maturing on 12/1/27, Bond Page | FINRA.org
1 Entergy Mississippi 2.85% FM Maturing on 81/28, Bond Page | FINRA.org
7 Entergy Mississippi 5% FM Maturing on 9/1/33, Bond Page | FINRA.org
I prefer owning the $1K par value bonds that mature in less than 10 years since they have a much lower interest rate risk.
I have sold 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% FM maturing on 4/15/55. Item # 3.D. Sold 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% FM at 100.049 (8/5/25)(profit snapshot = $37.17) - Item # 3.E. Bought 1 Entergy Mississippi 5.8% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/15/55 at a Total Cost of 96.232 (5/30/25 Post)
6. Junk Bond ETFs:
A. Eliminated SCYB - Sold 15 at $26.68+:
Quote: Schwab High Yield Bond ETF Overview
Proceeds: $400.28
Profit Snapshot: $4.24
I did not discuss my purchases.
Sponsor's website: SCYB | Schwab High Yield Bond ETF
Expense Ratio: .03%
Weighted average duration: 2.9 years as of 8/31/25
Dividends: Paid Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/25
SCYB Page at Morningstar Currently unrated.
B. Eliminated SPHY at $23.94:
Quote: SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF Overview
Proceeds: $239.40
Profit Snapshot: $4.49
Sponsor's website: SPHY: SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF
Expense Ratio: .05%
Number of Holdings: 1,905
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
SPHY Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 9/2/25
SPHY Page at Morningstar Currently rated 4 stars
7. My Vintage Baseball Card Collection:
My baseball card collection has been ignored by me for many years. What I view as the most valuable cards have been stored in one of my safety deposit boxes which, as I recall, was last opened almost 10 years ago.
A thought popped into my aged brain a few days ago to check out recent Ebay auction prices for the cards that I had graded many years ago. Since I had no inventory of what I own, and still do not, I took a bunch of the graded and ungraded cards out of safety box and checked the recent auction prices for the graded cards.
I published a video discussing some of the prices: Vintage Baseball Card Collection - YouTube
I was shocked.
A 1964 Pete Rose rookie card, for example, that had been graded at a 7 was last auctioned at Ebay at $1,635 grade and at $3,269 at 7.5. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1964 TOPPS Pete Rose I thought my card as at least a 7.5.
A 1961 Hank Aaron that I owned, which had been graded at 7, was last auctioned at $669. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1961 TOPPS Hank Aaron
I had those cards graded at Beckett and PSA along with many others.
I decided to start grading many of the remaining vintage cards.
I sent in 6 to be graded at SGC, just to see how the cards, having various issues, were graded by them. The most expensive would probably be the 1957 Topps Willie Mays. I grade it at a 6. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1957 TOPPS Willie Mays Condition is extremely important for the major players. An 8 graded 1957 Willie Mays was auctioned at $4,075 with the 6 last auctioned at $687.69.
After I receive the grades from SGC, I will decide how many more I will send to be graded. I have a batch of nice 1958 cards that will be included in the next shipment. The most expensive will be a 1958 Mickey Mantle. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1958 TOPPS Mickey Mantle The one in the best condition is a 1958 Ed Mathews. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1958 TOPPS Ed Mathews
I previously sent to Beckett a Topps 1958 Ted Williams that was given a 4, which I view as low but I would have to break the card out of the case to form a better opinion. Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1958 TOPPS Ted Williams
The condition looks as good or better than the 5 grades that I viewed at the previous link. Beckett gave the centering and edges 7.5. The corners were graded at 3.5 with very minor wear and the surface at 4. Beckett will give the most heavily weight the lowest in determining the overall grade. I would say that grade is a 5 with an eye appeal of a 6 just looking at what people normally see when looking at a card. I will not be sending Beckett any more cards to grade.
I have noticed after viewing my 1958 cards that many have centering issues on the top and bottom, with the top cut too short. The vintage cards frequently have rough centering due to the machines used back in the day to cut the sheets.
Of the major star 1958 cards that I own, the 1958 Mantle and Aaron cards have the best top cut:
I have not sent those cards into a grading service yet.
Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1958 TOPPS Mickey Mantle
Auction Prices Realized Baseball Cards 1958 TOPPS Hank Aaron
If I could have a 5 second conversation with my very young self, I would quickly say "take better care of the Mantle cards"
I have selected several 1958 cards to be included in the next batch including Clemente, Koufax, Mathews and Frank Robinson.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.



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I published a companion YT video for this blog post that focuses more on my vintage baseball card and memorabilia collection which I have taken out my out-of-sight, out-of-mind category into my investment category.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY9jKWAI7Mg
As mentioned there and in this post, I will not be selling any investment grade corporate bonds maturing in 2031 or earlier. I am comfortable with the interest rate risk now given the existing and anticipated Fed rate cuts that will likely make those bonds more valuable. Many that I own have already gone up in price above par value. All were bought at discounts to par value. For those bonds, I am more interested in receiving the interest payments than harvesting gains.
I have significantly lightened up in corporate bonds maturing in 2032 or later, having sold 118 since mid-July 2025.
Most of the bonds that I now own in that 2032 or later time frame are AA or better rated Tennessee municipal bonds. I believe that all of them no longer have call protection which generally expires 10 years after issuance and all were bought in the secondary market a few years after their initial offerings. Unlike the $1,000 par value corporate bonds that I own, the municipal bonds do not have call protection provided by a make whole provision and consequently the issuer would have an incentive to call at par value when rates have fallen significantly and refinancing can occur at a much lower coupon while lengthening the maturity. I am already experiencing many early calls. I do not recall the exact number this year but somewhere in the 20 to 30 range.
I also try to maintain around $8K in annual federally tax free income from those municipal bonds. With recent redemptions, and other bonds maturing next year, I will be buying some with long maturities.
While no one can predict the future, my more probable than not scenario is that inflation will start to meaningfully rise later this year and through 2026, possibly into 2027 for the reasons discussed in this blog post and elsewhere. Assuming Trump's FED does not restart Q/E and ZIRP, but bow to his pressure to continue lowering the FF rate as inflation increases, my expectation, more of an educated guess, is that intermediate and longer term interest rates will start to rise and the bonds that I have sold over the past 2 months will go down in price, providing me at some point with new and better repurchase prices.
If that does not happen, I still own a boatload of corporate bonds maturing from now into 2031 and municipal bonds with staggered maturities starting in 2026 out to 2045 with a current average weighted tax free yield of slightly over 3%.
With rate cuts, the market will become more desirable and overvalued.
ReplyDelete___
I've never owned a baseball card. I also never owned a collectible, that went up in substantial value.
There's a doll whose hair grows that I still have. It sells for around $35. So, not substantial. When we were kids we never had Barbie dolls but instead knock offs.
My small coin collection also doesn't have anything with substantial value.
Not in very good shape, but we have stuffed bippy pillows given by IBM at their holiday party to the kids, and based off of then popular Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In. I've wondered if they would have had value if they were in good condition.
Cool that your collection is acting like a collection and going up in value.
Land: I do not intend on selling any my baseball cards and memorabilia. I am just taking it more seriously now and making a list of what I own.
DeleteThere is an article published at Marketwatch on 9/18/25, which is behind a paywall, titled
"Billionaire David Tepper is feeling ‘miserable’ about stocks, but won’t ‘fight the Fed’"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-david-tepper-is-feeling-miserable-about-stocks-but-wont-fight-the-fed-74d96d45
I am finding small pockets of value where I can buy using my traditional valuation criteria and contrarian value style of investing.
I view the stock market as clearly and significantly overvalued using all traditional valuation criteria, but those criteria are not market timing indicators since markets can go parabolic even when significantly overvalued. A continued rise now does require investors to ignore valuations and all the negatives that are easily identifiable including a probable unchecked rise in inflation that that FED throws gasoline on again. A parabolic rise can also be supported by having far too much money floating round, as now, that has nowhere to go except into paper risk assets.
It is important to keep in mind that the Fed increased M2 money supply by 41% in the the period starting in February 2020 and ending in April 2022.
Using monthly data:
January 2020: $15.4168 trillion
April 2020: $21.75 trillion
Increase of $6.3332 trillion
41.0799%
This kind of data at least provides a rational explanation for gold and bitcoin rising, which have limited supply and are generally viewed as alternate stores of value compared to the USD which can be printed like so much confetti.
A substantial part of that new money is not needed in the real economy, but finds its way into risk assets driving up prices.
I was able to read the MarketWatch article. It must have allowed access to one article before you have to sign in kind of thing.
DeleteFrom what's been described, the legislation passed for COVID and after, both rescued the economy and then drowned it into inflation. I don't really understand how to assess the money supply and what's available so I appreciate the explanation.
Seems like there's a bit sloshing around still.
On the flip side, the market doesn't seem to be reflecting the economy that the middle class and lower class are experiencing. I thought the market was supposed to be forward thinking. Maybe it's considering other factors that would rescue the economy. Or it's being overly blue skies forever.
Temper makes the point that he's continuing to invest in the market because that's what you do, even if the market doesn't reflect his concerns.
I forgot to do the pre-Rosh Hashanah buying for the concept that often the market goes up between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. Oh well.
I've been told that I will get the $500 Vanguard fee back into my IRA account. The fee was for Vanguard needing to file a 990-T because I owned a k-1 stock In my Vanguard account and they are required to file 990-T if the gross UBTI total across all holdings in the IRA is over $1,000.
DeleteI hadn't done anything with that stock. The company CCLP was bought out by KGS. That sale converted the CCLP stock to KGS stock. The conversion is considered a sale of the stock giving a capital gains of about $1,400.
I wish I knew whether my argument was accepted. Or it's being done as an exception. That would help for future situations to know the rules Vanguard is using. The person who was assigned as my contact point, didn't seem to understand that question and I gave up asking.
My argument was that on schedule A for the 990T, part I, line 13 column A, is considered the gross total ubti by the IRS. I found a spot in 990T instructions that says that (when talking about a $10,000 limit. It's not stated one way or the other otherwise.)
Then I pointed out that the minus -$1,116 listed by Vanguard as they filled out the form, is less than $1,000.
For 3 weeks now at the end of the week the contact point has left a message that it's still being assessed. So on Friday I added yet another summary and said that it's taking a long time maybe this will help. It look like it was going to go on forever.
In other words I'm really disappointed in Vanguard's handling of this on top of its existence in the first place. But I am pleased that it's done and I won't have to decide whether to spend more time on it.
Land: I believe Tepper and many other professional investors are underestimating the inflationary impact of the republican tariff taxes. That is probably due to failing to assess how the tariffs, along with other factors, will disrupt the supply chain causing artificial shortgages and the rise in prices from domestic producers who can increase their prices for competing products. The later result actually happened in Trump's first term.
DeleteSee video starting 2 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-eHOSq3oqI
Longer term, and assuming Trump is successful in onshoring manufacturing, prices to consumers will be higher than they would have been without Trump's strategy.
Other factors that will contribute to supply chain disruptions include mass deportations of immigrants who work in agricultural, construction and other sectors integral to the U.S. supply chain.
Gold is behaving strangely for a world where everything is great as reflected in U.S. stock index prices/valuations.
Gold Continuous Contract
$3,819.20 +$ 44.10 1.17%
Last Updated: Sep 23, 2025 at 9:02 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00
Spot gold is up over 40% over the past year.
https://goldprice.org/
I am not going to chase this stock market higher. I am doing some spot small ball buying in dividend paying stocks that have not participated in the rally. I will maintain an overall weighting in the 6-10% range of my total portfolio held in brokerage accounts, spread out over 200-250 individual common stocks as a risk reduction. I have been paring a number of positions by selling my highest cost lots, which reduces my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield while minimizing my current tax bite.
Thank you. That's a very helpful explanation.
ReplyDeleteThat's true that gold is acting with a great deal of worry, while the market's still climbing.
Also it makes sense about tariffs. Tariffs being an infrequent factor (a Trump thing), can lead to not accurately assessing them by the market.
The counter factor that I see an articles, is the AI is still pushing the market up.
Both tariffs and AI sound like new factors that are harder for the market to assess, which is what happened in 2000... A lot of excitement about technology, but a lack of assessing accurately this (At that time) new thing.
Correction of prior comment. Tepper, not Temper.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/09/axprica-cold-exg-good-gty-htbk-ibit-kmb.html